College Football Handicapping 2006

We want to make sure you know what to expect when doing your 2006 college football handicapping. This article should give you some insight into how one of our expert handicappers is going to approach the season.  Also, if you are looking for some place to wager on football this season, you have to put BetUS at the top of your list.  They are currently offering a $500 match bonus and I haven’t seen any other offers this season that come close to it!  There’s just no better place to try your hand at beating the college football odds.

I’ve been talking it over with some football experts here in Las Vegas and we can’t remember ever confronting a college football season like this.

- Every legitimate national championship threat has to replace significant skill position talent, or high impact players on defense.

- There are at least 15 teams who can make reasonable cases that they’ve got a shot to play in the BCS championship game if they can win their big games.

- The addition of a 12th game to everyone’s schedule this year has taken away many bye weeks. If you’ve already scanned through the schedules, you know that many teams will be eight or nine games deep into the schedule before they get a week off. Some go straight through until getting a break around Thanksgiving. That means injuries and depth will play a bigger role in college football this year than ever.

So, you may be asking how anyone could project a national championship favorite or even a reasonable top ten. Or, how could anyone even trust their power ratings in the opening week? Remember how bad those early polls were last year? Tennessee was a consensus #2 in the country in the preseason even though they wouldn’t make it to a bowl. A lot of popular dark horse picks ended up with four losses or more.

How do you handicap college football games in this kind of environment? Here’s what I suggest:

- First, remember that the oddsmakers are in the same boat you are. They’re in one of their biggest positions of weakness in quite some time. That should boost your confidence right off the bat.

- Be conservative if you have yet to gain a strong feel. You’ve probably heard that a sports bettor’s biggest advantage is that he can pass any game while the oddsmakers have to put up a number in all of them. The oddsmakers will be putting up a few guesses. If you’ve got insights about a certain coach or a certain team, you’ll be able to cherry pick some great winning situations.

- Consider playing second half lines. The best way to get a read on two teams going head-to-head is to watch them play each other. In the old days, this was of no benefit to bettors because only full game lines were available. Now, you can watch the first half and bet on the second half. The oddsmakers will be floundering here as well with so many games going on simultaneously. You can cherry-pick the ones you watch and look for soft spots.

- Give extra weight to experienced quarterbacks. They’re more valuable than normal this year because so many big name teams will be breaking in newcomers. This is going to be a big deal in the first few weeks of the season. This should affect your thinking on both sides and totals.

- Remember to look for climate advantages. The Southeast and Southwest have had brutally hot summers (and are still having them). It’s very likely that any teams from mild weather will fade badly in the second halves of games played in very hot weather. This is something that often trumps differences in experience, so you can still play this edge with confidence.

- To set the tone for your late season college football handicapping, start paying very close attention now to which teams have depth and which don’t. Every year, many of the smaller programs fade badly in the final month of the season. They may get up for their rivalry game, but otherwise, they’re blowout fodder for the powers. Without the bye weeks this year this will happen to more programs and it will happen earlier than ever before. I think this particular angle will offer up several big play opportunities in the second half of the season.

I know you’ll be watching a zillion games on TV in the coming days. We all will! Make notes of any depth-related comments you hear from the announcers, and eyeball for yourself how well the backups do when they get a chance to perform. It will pay off time and time again down the road.

We’re coming up on what could prove to be a very unique season. The oddsmakers are talking tough. But I know they’re scared to death about these early games. They know in their hearts that they’re just guessing with the early numbers. Analysts like you and me who use the right approach will be able to teach them a lesson about making college football picks!

Remember that you can get free NCAA football picks all season long so you can see how each handicapper examines each game before you ever purchase a premium football picks package.

2006 Heisman Trophy Watch

It’s never to early to think about post-season awards and as such we bring you the 2006 Week 1 Heisman update from Larry Ness. If you want to cash in on his expert knowledge then take a look at his sports picks packages available right here.  For anyone wants to beat the college football odds, the $500 match bonus at BetUS is a must-have for this football season.

Notre Dame and USC have each produced seven Heisman winners, the most of any schools in college football history. However, the Ohio State Buckeyes have produced five Heisman winners, accounting for a total of six trophies (Archie Griffin won back-to-back Heismans in 1974-75). While Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn was the odds-on favorite to win this year’s award entering the season, Ohio State QB Troy Smith is the early leader in my second Heisman Trophy top-10 poll of the young season. The entire poll appears below.

Heisman Trophy Top-10
(Monday, September 11)

1) TROY SMITH (Ohio State) Last Week: 1 Texas used its early September 25-22 win over Ohio State in Columbus to catapult the Longhorns to their first undisputed national title since 1969. Ohio State is hopeful its impressive 24-7 win last Saturday night in Austin, which ended Texas’ 21-game winning streak, will be a similar springboard. Whether Ohio State will claim this year’s national crown or not is unknown but the team is off to a great start, as it entered the year as the nation’s No. 1 team in both major polls and has increased its lead by opening 2-0. Similarly, Troy Smith had a much better season debut than Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn and Smith was very good again Saturday night in Austin. Smith completed 17-of-26 passes for 269 yards with two TDs and no INTs in the win against Texas. It marked Ohio State’s ninth consecutive win with Smith completing 67.1 percent of his passes for an average of 254.6 YPG with 18 TDPs and just two INTs. The win over No. 1 Texas gives Smith a 7-1 record vs ranked opponents in his career. Smith is being compared to Texas’ Vince Young but we’ve yet to see Smith run anything like Young these first two games. while Smith averaged 50.7 YPG (4.9 YPC) and ran for six TDs as Ohio State closed last year win seven straight wins, he’s had eight carries so far in 2006, losing a total of 14 yards. However, that’s ‘pinching pennies’, as Smith has been great! Ohio State will host Cincinnati this Saturday. His season stats are: 35-of-51 68.6 percent 566 yards with 5 TDPs and 0 INTs.

2) BRADY QUINN (Notre Dame) Last Week: 3. After a less than spectacular opening game in ND’s season opening 14-10 win over Ga Tech (no TDPs but a TD run), Quinn was sharp in Saturday’s 41-17 win at home over Penn State. Quinn was 12-of-16 for 150 yards with two TDPs in the second quarter alone and his third TDP in the early fourth quarter put the Irish up 41-3. He finished 25-of-36 for 287 yards with three TDPs and no INTs. last year Quinn found himself in Weis’ offense, throwing for 3,919 yards (64.9 percent) with 32 TDPs and just seven INTs. While he’s yet to have a breakout game in his first two, it should be noted that after two games last year, Quinn had thrown for just 367 yards. He then got hot, topping 300 yards in five of his last 10 games (he topped 200 yards in all 10 games), with four games of better than 400 yards. He averaged 355.2 YPG over those final 10 games and he may need similar numbers to chase down Troy Smith in this year’s Heisman race. Notre Dame hosts No. 11 Michigan this Saturday. His season stats are: 48-of-74 64.9 percent 533 yards with 3 TDPs 0 INTs / 15 attempts 15 yards 1.0 YPC 1 TD.

3) ADRIAN PETERSON (Oklahoma) Last Week: 5 Peterson had his second straight good game as the Sooners beat the Washington Huskies this past Saturday, 37-20. He ran for 165 yards on 32 carries and scored two TDs, for his 18th career 100-yard game. The good news for Peterson is that Oklahoma QB Paul Thompson has looked just fine in the first two games, averaging 249.5 YPG through the air while throwing for two TDs in each of the games as well. If Thompson can continue at this rate, Peterson should have a ‘monster’ season. Peterson and the Sooners get a real test this Saturday, as they will visit Eugene to play No. 18 Oregon in a rematch of last year’s Holiday bowl, a game won by Oklahoma, 17-14. His season stats are: 56 attempts 304 yards 5.5 YPC 3 TDs / 3 catches 75 yards 1 TD.

4) STEVE SLATON (West Virginia) Last Week: 4 Slaton barely broke a sweat last Saturday as the Mountaineers crushed Division I-AA Eastern Washington, 52-3. He scored the game’s first two TDs on runs of 49 and 17 yards and was on the sidelines before the half. He finished with eight carries (had 31 last week!) and 105 yards with those two TD runs. It marked his seventh career 100-yard game and West Va is 7-0 in those contests. Slaton did not play in three of West Va’s first four games last year but topped 100 yards in five of the team’s final eight games in leading the Mountaineers to an 11-1 season . He finished last year with 1,128 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 19 TDs (17 rushing). The Mountaineers host Maryland Thursday night. His season stats are: 41 attempts 308 yards 7.5 YPC 4 TDs / 1 catch 12 yards 0 TDs.

5) TED GINN JR (Ohio State) Last Week: 2 Ginn was the main focus of the Texas defense last Saturday night but he still managed five catches for 97 yards. Also, the extra attention paid to him allowed Anthony Gonzalez to shine for the Buckeyes, as he led the team with eight catches for 142 yards (both career highs!) with one TD reception. Ginn was far from silent in the game, making a 46-yard reception in the first quarter and hauling in a 29-yard TD catch right before the half, allowing Ohio State to take a 14-7 lead in the game’s second half. As mentioned last week, for a WR to challenge for the Heisman, he need to make big plays returning punts and/or kickoffs. Through two games, Ginn hasn’t made any “highlight” kick returns. His season stats are: 9 catches 220 yards 24.4 YPC 3 TDs.

6) MIKE HART (Michigan) Last Week: 6 Hart and Henne led Michigan to a Rose Bowl appearance as freshman and last year struggled through a 7-5 season. While Henne is off to a very mediocre start in Michigan’s 2-0 start to the 2006 season (21-of-41 for 248 yards with two TDPs and no INTs), Hart has put together back-to-back 100-yard games. That makes 12 in his career and it’s a significant stat as the Wolverines are 11-1 when Hart tops the century mark.Hart ran 19 times for 116 yards in Michigan’s 41-17 win over Central Michigan this past Saturday, tying a career-high with three rushing TDs. He added two catches for a modest total of 11 yards as well. Michigan will visit South Bend to play No. 2 Notre Dame this Saturday. Hart and Michigan will have a chance to make a real statement this week, after facing Vandy and CMU. His season stats are: 50 attempts 262 yards 5.2 YPC 3 TDs / 3 catches 13 yards 4.3 YPC 0 TDs.

7) ERIK AINGE (Tennessee) Last Week: 10 After two quiet years at Tennessee (last year he completed just 45.5 percent of his throws with just five TDPs), Erik Ainge has flown out of the gate for the Vols. He led Tennessee to a 35-0 lead against then-No. 9 Cal on September 2 and finished the game with four TDPs (the last three covered 42, 80 and 50 yards). This past Saturday he was at it again, completing 24-of-29 passes for a career-high 333 yards with three more TDPs and one INT. The Vols led 31-17 in the game but Air Force scored two TDs late (the second one with 1:35 remaining after recovering an onside kick), but was stopped on the two-point conversion try, allowing the Vols to escape with a 31-30 win. While Ainge’s TD throws were of the shorter variety this week (4,5 and 4 yards), he’s truly been one of this season’s biggest early surprises. Ainge and Tennessee get a major test this Saturday, as the seventh-ranked Gators invade Knoxville. His season stats are: 35-of-47 74.5 percent 624 yards with 7 TDPs 2 INTs.  Don’t miss out on this limited-time $500 match bonus from BetUS.  It’s for players that want to take their college football betting to the next level.

KENNY IRONS (Auburn) Last Week: 7 Auburn shutout Mississippi State this past Saturday 34-0 for the team’s 18th win in its last 19 SEC games. However, RB Kenny Irons saw his seven-game regular season streak of 100-yard rushing performances come to an end when he was held to just 69 yards on 21 carries (no TDs). MSU’s concentration on Irons allowed FB Brad Lester to get into the end zone twice, gaining 40 yards on five attempts. Anyway, Irons will get his chance this coming Saturday when Auburn hosts No. 6 LSU. You may remember (LSU does) that Irons had a career-high 218 yards rushing in last year’s 20-17 OT loss to LSU in Baton Rogue. His season stats are: 41 attempts 252 yards 6.1 YPC 1 TD / 4 catches 36 yards 9.0 YPC 0 TDs.

9) CHRIS LEAK (Florida) Last Week: NR In his first year in Urban Meyer’s offense, Leak’s numbers dropped from 3,197 passing yards (29/12) in 2004 to 2,639 yards (20/6) last year. Leak seemingly has the hang of things in his second year in the offense, as he threw for a career-high 352 yards in Florida’s 42-0 win over UCF this past Saturday. It was Florida’s most lopsided win since a 63-3 win over Florida A&M in 2003 and its first shutout since beating Miss St 52-0 in 2001. Leak ended the game 19-of-29 with four TDPs and just one INT, while running four times for 16 yards. It marked his seventh career 300-yard game and he’ll lead the Gators into their showdown with No. 13 this Saturday in Knoxville. His season stats are: 40-of-59 67.8 percent 600 yards with 7 TDPs and 2 INTs / 9 attempts 4 yards 0.4 YPC 0 TDs.

10) GARRETT WOLFE (Northern Illinois) Last Week: NR I like to use my 10th spot to spotlight a player and this week it’s Garret Wolfe. Players don’t win the Heisman while playing in the MAC and Wolfe’s Northern Illinois team has opened the 2006 season by starting 0-2, thereby erasing even the remotest of chances he may have had,. However, Wolfe ran 24 times for 196 yards (two rushing TDs) in Northern Illinois’ 35-23 loss to Ohio (go Bobcats!). The 5-7 senior is one heckuva of a player, having rushed for 1,656 yards with 21 TDs (18 rush) in 2004 and 1,580 yards with 17 TDs (16 rush) in 2005, averaging 6.5 YPC in both seasons. He’s opened the 2006 season by topping 100 yards in both games, giving him 16 career 100-yard efforts. In seven of those games he’s topped the 200-yard mark, including a career-high 325 yards vs Eastern Michigan last year. His season stats are: 50 attempts 367 yards 7.3 YPC 2 TDs / 5 catches 114 yards 22.8 YPC 1 TD.

Dropped Out:

No. 8 Graham Harrell (Texas Tech)
No. 9 Michael Bush (Louisville)

Get even more winning college football picks from our top handicappers all week long, right here.  No site brings you a better selection of expert football picks.