College Football Betting - Mismatches and Defense

Today Bryan Leonard is going to be talking about how mismatches and defense can help you with college football betting. This honest and reliable handicapper knows tons of different angles to approach in order to beat the books this fall, and he's more than happy to help you as well.

Offenses get all the publicity and certainly too much interest with the general betting public. But good defenses are more important than offenses, when it comes to winning championships and often times covering numbers.

This comes to mind after Saturday’s college football games where I backed two teams from the Mountain West Conference. I had TCU as a road dog Saturday at BYU. TCU has an improved defense, something that was a serious weakness last season. This was on display in the opener when they stung Oklahoma, winning on the road as a +24 dog. TCU addressed its major weakness, run defense, and completely dominated a fine Oklahoma running game. TCU was No. 1 in the MWC in total defense heading into the BYU game. They did give up a lot of passing yards to the Cougars, but took away BYU’s ability to run the football, something that was important as BYU had an early 21-10 lead, but couldn’t control the ball or the clock. And TCU’s offense is balanced and potent enough to come back, which they did, eventually winning the game as a road dog.

Defense is something that San Jose State doesn’t play, being a small, undersized program. That was another play I had, taking San Diego State at minus-14 over the Spartans. SDSU not only had the better defense, but this was a complete mismatch on the field on both sides of the ball. I recognized that San Jose didn’t have the offensive punch nor the defensive muscle to hang with SDSU, especially on the road. San Jose is now 0-8 straight up and 2-5 against the spread on the road the last two seasons. In their first road game this year, they failed to cover in a 40-19 loss to Illinois. Illinois may be a weak Big 10 program in rebuilding mode, but they are a huge step up for a school like San Jose State, which is one of those “middle ground” programs between Division 1 and 1-AA. Technically they’re Division I, of course, but that’s only because there is no Division 1-B class. They got outscored by 21 ppg last season on the road, and are getting beaten by 26 on the road this season, so laying the 14 was not a concern. Mismatches like this are common this time of year, as there are fewer conference games. In addition, San Jose didn’t have the passing game to mount a late comeback, which can lead to a back-door cover.

That’s another thing to look at when assessing mismatches – does the weak opponent have a chance at a late cover? Analyzing defensive ability and mismatches in September and early October can unearth outstanding wagering opportunities on live dogs and undervalued favorites with your college football picks.