Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cardinals/Packers OVER 47

Both the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals are dead nut OVER teams with great offenses and suspect defenses.  It will be a little windy at Lambeau Field with possible rain as well, but the books have adjusted this total down too much due to the forecast in my opinion.

The Packers are scoring 25.6 points per game this season despite being without Jordan Love for two of their five games.  Love is back healthy now in his 3rd game back from injury and has put it behind him.  He should get Romeo Doubs back from a one-game suspension after he missed last week.  Plus, fellow WR Christian Watson has returned to practice this week.  The Packers should be near full strength offensively.

They should have their way against an Arizona defense that allows 25.8 points per game, 360.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play ranking 25th or worse in every major statistical category defensively.  But the Cardinals are 10th at 6.1 yards per play and they are 12th at 24.0 points per game with a potent offense of their own.

They should have plenty of success as well against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 21.6 points per game and 345.8 yards per game.  The Packers allowed 34 points to the Eagles, 31 points to the Vikings and 370 total yards to a Rams offense last week that is missing their top two receivers.

If it is raining both offenses should be able to move the football on the ground with two elite rushing offenses up against two poor rushing defenses.  The Packers rank 3rd in rushing at 164.8 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.  The Cardinals allow 147.8 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Arizona ranks 4th in rushing at 156.4 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry.  The Packers allow 114.2 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

Arizona's last three totals were all 49 or higher, and Green Bay had a 49.5-point total against the Rams last week.  This is a discount down below the key number of 48 down to another key number of 47, and we'll take advantage and fade all the money that pushed this total down due to the forecast and due to both teams going under the total last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play.  The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively.  Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week.  

The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both are dead nuts OVER teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again.

The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted.  The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted.  They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs.  And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites.

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks.  They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks.  I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week.  They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins.  The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points.  In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career.  We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy.

Reinforcements are on the way now.  Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week.  QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now.  They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start.  They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7.  Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense.  Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas.  The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game.

Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now.  They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR.  WR Josh Reynolds is out as well.  This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now.  They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed.

The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot.  Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries.  Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco.  They are expected to start Richardson this week.  They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable.  Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going.

The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL.  Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play.  They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points.  He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others.  They have nine defenders on the IR already.

Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week.  The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace.  Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle.  They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks.

Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago.  He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards.

Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season.

The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary.  They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem.  I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills.

The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts.  Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week.  Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense.

They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London.  SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out.  Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing.  This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning.  Bet the OVER in London.

20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys.  They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago.  They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat.  They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys.  This is the week they say enough is enough.

Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did.  They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season.  But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division.  The Lions will be all business this week.

But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything.  Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence.  The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to.  They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190.  And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense.

This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys.  They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot.  It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning.  They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result.  The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140

I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints.  I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage.

This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now.  They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since.

Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz.  Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well.  Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well.  They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night.

The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.  They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield.  There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.

The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week.  I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start.  The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks.  Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense.  This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.