15* MLB Saturday BLOWOUT on Toronto Blue Jays -113

The Tampa Bay Rays have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the top wild card spot in the American League as the Orioles already clinched the division.  I don't expect them to offer much resistance to the Blue Jays, and they didn't in Game 1 with Toronto winning 11-4.

The Blue Jays are still trying to clinch a wild card spot and could do so today with a win and some help.  But either way, they have the motivational advantage and will have a massive home-field advantage with fans turning out to try and push them over the top to clinch.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 3-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in five home starts this season.  I'll gladly back him over Shawn Armstrong and the Rays, who are going to be making this a bullpen game and likely won't be using their best arms since this game is meaningless for them.  Bet the Blue Jays Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Royals OVER 9

Temps will be in the 80's with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center in Kansas City tonight.  Conditions were similar last night, and I took advantage and backed the OVER 9 in a 12-5 victory and 17 combined runs.  I'm back on the OVER 9 in Game 2 today.

Clarke Schmidt is 9-9 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.341 WHIP in 31 starts this season for the Yankees.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 5-3 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  Schmidt allowed 3 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against Kansas City this season.

The Royals are going to make this a bullpen game after opening with Steven Cruz.  They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.27 ERA and 1.485 WHIP on the season, including a 5.34 ERA and 1.545 WHIP at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Texas Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +17

Texas is overvalued after a 4-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3.  We saw Texas overvalued in the opener against Rice in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  We backed Rice and then Wyoming +30 off the Alabama win.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.

Admittedly, I was wrong last week in backing Baylor against Texas.  But that 38-6 final was very misleading.  Baylor actually threw for 305 yards on Texas and should have scored more than 6 points.  That misleading final is providing us line value on Kansas this week.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Texas this week is because they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Oklahoma.  That Red River Rivalry will likely determine which team is the favorite to win not only the Big 12, but to also compete for a national title.  The Longhorns could easily be caught overlooking Kansas and looking ahead to Oklahoma, especially after burying Kansas on the road last year.

But that was a rare easy win for Texas in this series.  Kansas pulled the 57-56 upset win as 31-point dogs in 2021, only lost 50-48 as 21-point road dogs in 2019, lost 24-17 as 16-point dogs in 2018, lost 42-27 as 31.5-point dogs in 2017 and won 24-21 as 23.5-point dogs in 2016.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, so we are getting great value here on Kansas +17 given the awful spot for Texas.

Plus, this is the best team Kansas has had this century.  Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  Getting Kansas to a bowl last year was a monumental feat, and now the Jayhawks are hungry for more.  They have opened 4-0 this season with a 31-point win over Missouri State, an 11-point win over Illinois, a 7-point win at Nevada and an 11-point win over BYU.  Leipold brought back 17 starters this season including a healthy QB in Jalon Daniels, who is completing 74.7% of his passes and is a great dual-threat.

Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games the week before Oklahoma. Texas 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit conference favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB TOTAL OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Wyoming UNDER 42.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds at Wyoming today that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 42.5 ticket.  These are two teams with bad offenses and good defenses, which is the case every year in this rivalry.  That's why these games tend to go UNDER the total when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Wyoming and New Mexico, but would be 5-0 with a 42.5-point total.  They have combined for 41, 17, 33, 33 and 34 points in their last five meetings, respectively.

Wyoming plays slow ranking 117th out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 29.0 seconds in between plays.  New Mexico ranks 111th at 28.7 seconds in between offensive snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which also bodes well for the UNDER in limiting possessions.

Wyoming is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games following a win.  New Mexico is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +14

Wyoming is off to a surprising 3-1 start this season.  But the Cowboys should be 1-3 when you dive into the box scores a little deeper, and they just haven't been that good.  This fraudulent 3-1 record has Wyoming laying more points to New Mexico today than they should be.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 (OT) in the opener despite being down 17-0 and getting outgained by 111 yards.  They only managed 320 yards on offense.  They had a bit of a letdown the next week against Portland State, winning 31-17 as 28-point favorites despite getting outgained by 27 yards and being held to 344 total yards.  They were held to 291 yards in their 31-10 loss to Texas.  And last week was the most misleading of all, beating Appalachian State 22-19 despite being held to 208 total yards and getting outgained by 209 yards.

As you can see, Wyoming has a terrible offense again this season averaging just 297.5 yards per game. That woeful offense makes it very difficult for them to cover these lofty spreads as favorites.  The Cowboys are much better in the underdog role than they are in the favorite role, especially in the big favorite role.

New Mexico has the best offense they have had in years.  They are scoring 29.3 points per game and averaging 384.5 yards per game this season.  They have opened 2-2 with wins over Tennessee Tech and UMass and losses to Texas A&M and New Mexico State, but they were very competitive against NMSU with 401 yards on offense compared to 397 for NMSU.

The Cowboys were flat against Portland State after beating Texas Tech.  I think they'll be flat again today after beating Appalachian State and with MWC defending champ Fresno State on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  New Mexico has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* Indiana/Maryland Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +14.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana after needing OT to beat Akron as a 16-point home favorite last week.  Akron is better than they get credit for, but it was a clear flat spot for the Hoosiers off a tough 21-14 loss to Louisville the previous week, and with Maryland on deck.  Indiana also lost 23-3 to Ohio State in the opener, so they have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

They have played a much tougher schedule than Maryland, which is overvalued after a 4-0 start to the season.  They beat Towson, Charlotte and Virginia at home before going on the road and topping Michigan State, which is a program in turmoil firing Mel Tucker two weeks ago.  But a closer look at the box scores of the Virginia and Michigan State games shows misleading finals, and those misleading finals have the Terrapins overvalued.

Maryland actually trailed Virginia 14-0.  That was a 7-point game going into the 4th quarter, yet they won by 28.  They only outgained Virginia by 107 yards, and that's a terrible Virginia team.  Last week's 31-9 win at Michigan State was a 12-point game until the Terrapins added 10 points in the 4th quarter.  Michigan State actually outgained Maryland by 14 yards as well, but committed five turnovers, which was the difference.

Indiana is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Maryland.  The three losses came by 3, 3 and 5 points.  So they haven't even come close to losing by this kind of margin to Maryland in any of the last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.

We see it every year with Maryland.  Take advantage of a soft non-conference schedule early then get buried in conference play and struggle to make a bowl game.  The Terrapins also have Ohio State on deck neck week, so they could be looking ahead to that potential battle of unbeatens.

Maryland is 32-58 ATS in its last 90 games following a conference win, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following a conference win by 21 points or more.  Mike Locksley is 11-21 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Maryland.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Hawaii +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UNLV after a 3-1 start to the season.  The win over UTEP last week doesn't look very good now as UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.  The 44-14 win over Bryant in the opener was very misleading as they were actually outgained by 15 yards by Bryant.

These teams have a common opponent in Vanderbilt.  UNLV beat Vanderbilt 40-37 at home and took advantage of four turnovers by the Commodores and getting outgained by 17 yards.  Meanwhile, Hawaii lost 35-28 on the road to Vanderbilt and should have won that game outright.  Hawaii outgained Vanderbilt by 94 yards in that game and held them to just 297 total yards.

This has been a very closely-contested series, so I'm more than happy to take double-digits with the Rainbow Warriors.  Only twice in the last 11 meetings has Hawaii lost by more than 8 points to UNLV.  The Rebels are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three games coming in.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Hawaii) - off two or more consecutive unders who are also outscored by 7 or more points per game on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* Houston/Texas Tech Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

This is the Donovan Smith revenge game.  He was replaced at QB at Texas Tech by Tyler Shough last year.  Well, Shough just suffered a broken fibula last week in a 20-13 loss at Virginia Tech.  Backup QB Behren Morton was atrocious against WVU, completing just 13-of-37 passes for 158 yards in the loss.  

The Red Raiders cannot be favored by double-digits given their QB situation.  Even Morton was banged up and didn't practice all week, so they could be down to a third-stringer and possibly a wildcat offense.  A lot of their offense has come from Shough on the ground as he has rushed for 149 yards this season.  The Red Raiders are in a world of hurt at QB right now.

Smith is completing 62.3% of his passes for 1,012 years with five touchdowns and three interceptions for Houston this season.  He has also rushed for 104 yards and three scores.  The Cougars showed a lot of resiliency by crushing Sam Houston State 38-7 as 11.5-point favorites last week.  They had 538 total yards against a very good Sam Houston State defense.  Sam Houston played BYU, Air Force and Jacksonville State much tougher than they did Houston.

It's also a revenge game for Houston in general after losing five consecutive meetings in this series all by 17 points or fewer, including a 33-30 loss last year as 4-point road dogs.  Given the situation, I think Texas Tech with a backup QB is ripe to get upset here by their former QB and the Cougars.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -2.5

The Akron Zips have quietly been one of the best covering teams in the country dating back to last season.  They have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They could easily have a much better straight up record than they do in those 13 games as they have gone 1-7 SU in one-score games during this stretch despite being a double-digit underdog in almost all of them.

Akron opened the season with a 21-24 loss at Temple as 9.5-point dogs and blew a double-digit lead in that game.  They beat Morgan State but failed to cover due to committing five turnovers.  They lost by 32 at Kentucky in a game they also deserved to cover as 26-point dogs, but gave up a late TD in that one with Kentucky clearly trying to cover the spread.

But no effort was more impressive for Akron this season than last week's 29-27 loss at Indiana in overtime as 16.5-point underdogs.  Akron actually outgained Indiana by nearly 200 yards in that game but committed three turnovers.  They also missed a potential game-winning field goal going into overtime.

QB DJ Irons is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He threw for 194 yards and rushed for 141 more and a pair of touchdowns on a very good Indiana defense last week.  Indiana had held Louisville to 21 points the week prior, and that's a Louisville team that put up 56 on Boston College and 39 on Georgia Tech.

Usually this would be the kind of loss that could beat a team twice.  But not Akron, especially since they have Buffalo coming to town this week.  They want revenge from a 23-22 loss to Buffalo as 11-point road underdogs in the season finale last year.  That's a game Buffalo had to win to make a bowl game, and Akron gave them all they wanted and should have won outright.  Buffalo scored with 1:15 left to steal a 1-point victory.

Now it's Buffalo that is one of the worst teams in college football this season.  Buffalo is now 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight regular season games.  The Bulls have opened 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS this season, and they were extremely fortunate to cover last week.  They lost by 21 at Wisconsin in the opener.  They were upset by Fordham at home as 22.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They were blasted by 28 at home by Liberty in Week 3.  And last week they lost by 7 at Louisiana-Lafayette, but they were down by 21 in the final minutes before getting an touchdown, and onside kick and another touchdown to make the final score look better than it really was.

Buffalo doesn't do anything well, especially defensively.  The Bulls are allowing 44.5 points per game, 512 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  Compare that to Akron, which allows 27.3 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play and it's easy to see the Zips have the much better defense.  These teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but the Zips have played the much tougher schedule of opposing defenses with three road games already at Indiana, Kentucky and Temple.

Joe Moorhead has the Zips pointed in the right direction and this team believes they can challenge for a bowl game.  I'm worried the train is about to come off the rails for Maurice Lingquist in Buffalo as this team has very little to play for after an 0-4 start in which they haven't even been competitive in any game other than their lost to FCS Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite.

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more total combined points were scored are 73-28 (72.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State -1

Everyone keeps sleeping on Georgia State.  I backed them heavily as 7-point road dogs at Coastal Carolina last week and they delivered with a 30-17 victory.  I'll back them again here as they should be much more than 1-point favorites against Troy.

Georgia State is 4-0 this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, beating UConn by 21 at home, Charlotte by 16 on the road and Coastal by 30 on the road.  Charlotte only lost by 15 at Florida and Coastal only lost by 14 at UCLA.  So those wins have more credence now than they did before.

Georgia State's offense has tremendous balance averaging 37.0 points per game, 196 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  They have one of the best QB's in the Sun Belt in Darren Grainger, who is completing 70% of his passes for 994 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 9.5 per attempt.  Grainger is a dual-threat who has rushed for 263 yards, 3 TD and 5.6 per carry.

I love the spot for Georgia State, too.  They have two extra days of rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday.  This is a night game at 7:00 EST and fans are getting behind this team knowing they have a real shot of winning the Sun Belt and doing big things this year.  Plus, there will be no letdown facing the defending Sun Belt champs in Troy.  They will be max-motivated and give their best effort.

Troy has been overvalued since winning the Sun Belt last year.  They brought back just 12 starters from that team and lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.  Troy gave up 30 points to Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite in the opener.  Troy gave up 42 points at Kansas State in a 29-point loss.  They are now 0-4 ATS this season and getting way too much respect from the books again this week.

Georgia State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Shawn Elliott is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Georgia State.  Elliott is 12-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Georgia State.  He is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +20.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued now after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They had no business covering two of those games.  They only led SMU 14-11 as 16-point favorites with with under 10 minutes left but scored two more touchdowns to win 28-11.  They were actually outgained by SMU.  SMU lost 34-17 at TCU last week.

Then last week Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 as 13-point road favorites.  That was another big misleading final as Cincinnati turned it over twice in the red zone.  They only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards and gave up 376 yards to a bad Bearcats offense.  I do think their defensive is improved, but their offense isn't as good as the numbers because they padded their stats against Tulsa and Arkansas State, but struggled to score against SMU and Cincinnati.

Not only are the Sooners overvalued, but they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Texas in the Red River Rivalry that will go a long way in determining not only if they win the Big 12, but also if they can contend for a national title.  This is a sandwich spot coming off a big road win at Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener as well.  They probably just think they have to show up to win against Iowa State.

That won't be the case.  Iowa State could easily be 4-0 this season when you look at the box scores of their games, but they are 2-2 and undervalued as a result.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game, 299 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through three games.  Their defense could be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 4-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Then last week I backed Iowa State -2.5 in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.  I liked what I saw from their offense as they abandoned the running game early, spread their receivers out with less two TE sets, and let Becht go to work.  It worked as Becht had his best game of the season, completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception.  It also opened up the running game in the second half for them to salt the game away.  The change of offensive philosophy is a big reason I'm 'buying' on the Cyclones moving forward.  They are great in pass protection as Becht has only been sacked once all season, so they are playing to their strengths.

Nobody has played Oklahoma tougher than Iowa State in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  And even that 14-point loss last year was very misleading.  Iowa State actually outgained Oklahoma 374 to 332 for the game.  They have outgained Oklahoma in four consecutive meetings, and haven't been outgained by more than 72 yards in any of their last seven meetings.  

Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog as the coach of Iowa State, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or more.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +18

Michigan has been way overvalued this season after making the four-team playoff.  They are 0-3-1 ATS despite playing a very weak schedule with four straight home games against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.  They were favored by 35.5 or more points in three of those four games and haven't even scored 35 points once.

A big reason Michigan isn't putting up big points this season is because they are the second-slowest team in the entire country.  They rank 132nd out of 133 teams in seconds in between plays at 32.3 seconds.  Now they face a Nebraska team that ranks 116th at 29.1 seconds in between offensive snaps.  That means there will be fewer possessions in this game, thus it really favors the underdog.

Nebraska has been undervalued since blowing the game last in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota.  They also were embarrassed on National TV at Colorado.  Now everyone has given up on this team.  Matt Rhule, the coaching staff and these players have Michigan right where they want them Saturday.  Everyone is overlooking them now, and with four games under their belts, they are starting to get familiar with Rhule's systems.

Nebraska bounced back from the Colorado loss with a dominant 35-11 victory over Northern Illinois as 11.5-point favorites.  They held NIU to just 149 total yards and have an elite defense that is capable of getting more stops than anyone else Michigan has faced thus far.  They also beat LA Tech 28-14 last week.  They were up 28-7 before a rain delay in the 4th quarter and gave up a TD after the delay to make the final score look closer than it was.

Nebraska has gone to Heinrich Haarberg at QB for the past two wins, and he has a lot of Tim Tebow in him.  He has thrown for 278 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, while also leading the team in rushing with 272 yards, two touchdowns and 6.5 per carry.  He gives them their best chance to be successful, and I love the run-heavy approach here against Michigan to shorten the game.

Rhule is 44-19 ATS in conference games as a head coach.  Rhule is 8-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 75% of their games as a head coach.  Rhule is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more yards per attempt as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse +7

Clemson is out of the national title discussion already in September for the first time in a long time.  They lost 28-7 to Duke in the opener and 31-24 to Florida State last week.  That loss to Florida State is the dream crusher as they are out of not only the ACC title discussion now, but the national title discussion as well.  It's the kind of game that can beat a team twice.

Now they must go on the road and face an underrated Syracuse team that has had their number in recent years.  Syracuse is 4-0 this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  They are averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing just 10.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 33.5 points per game.

Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Clemson.  Four of those six meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  I love Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader, who is very similar to Duke QB Riley Leonard, who threw for 175 yards and rushed for 98 more against Clemson in the opener.  Schrader is completing 66.7% of his passes for 972 yards while averaging 9.0 per attempt, while also leading the team in rushing with 316 yards, 6.9 per carry and 6 TD on the ground.

Plays on home underdogs (Syracuse) - after four consecutive wins are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Orange are being disrespected here and I believe they should actually be favored, especially given the brutal spot for Clemson with their dreams crushed.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.