Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing $77000.00 dime player profit run!
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California starts play in new conference this season and this Saturday go against SEC opponents Auburn in the underdog role. They are not the superior side here , but the line according to my projections. estimates we have value backing them getting close to 2 TDS. It must be noted that the Bears have been bad news for their hosts gambling backers as they flash a 10-0 ATS record as a non-conference away pups against Power 4/5 opposition . HC Wilcox team is pretty loaded thanks to the transfer portal, and will Im betting provide the Tigers with alot more than then the linemakers are expecting. Also a fair deal of regression must be expected from Auburn after going non stop in week 1 beating FCS opponent Alabama A&M 73-3.
CFB home team like Auburn vs. the money line - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, with 9 or more defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 11-19 SU L/9 seasons for a go against SU 63% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on California to cover
Kansas State only has four starters back on offense and will rely on the running game behind DJ Giddens. Im betting the Cats will not be as fluent offensively as they have been in the past. Meanwhile, Tulane a program on the rise starts their season with a new HC Jon Sumrall who was on a 23-4 SU run with the Troy Trojans before landing here/ Tulane is 7-3 ATS in the last ten as a home dog and Jon Sumrall is 7-1 ATS as a dog. KCState ks just 2-8 ATS L/10 on the road as a favorite of less than 14 points. Advantage Tulane
This will be Army's first game as a new member of the AAC and they will once again focus on an almost exclusive run game and try to systematically dismantle Florida Atlantic here on the road today.The Cadets enter this game on a 5 game win streak, and deserve respect here in the underdog role. On the flipside Im not liking what I saw in FAUs first game vs Michigan State on offense and especially at the QB position ,as was evident by going 2 for 15 on third down conversions . Note FAU is 3-9 ATS L/12 lined home opening tilts and are just 1-4 SU L/5 as hosts overall. Army HC Jeff Monken in games played on a grass field 12-5 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at -1.5 ppg.
Play on Army to cover
Texas and Michigan have faced each other just one , and that was in the 2005 Rose Bowl, a 38-37 thriller won by the Longhorns on a late FG. Here today Im expecting another close affair. In their openers Texas blasted Colorado State 52-0 and Michigan beat Fresno State 30-10 on the back of what could be college footballs best defense behind new DC Don Martindale who comes to Ann Arbour from the Baltimore Ravens. . With the Longhorns entire offensive skill position group being new getting unwound and in top form is still a ways off, and the Colorado State game did nto qualify, considering the talent difference. The Wolverines D, offers up a whole different challenge. Advantage Michigan.
The Longhorns are 1-11 ATS as road chalk when coming off scoring 50 or more points in a victory. Texas is also 1-78 ATS L/10 vs Big 10 sides, and 0-7 ATS vs Big 10 as favs.
Michigan is 6-0 SU/ATS against SEC opposition when they are coming off a double-digit victory which is the case this week.
Play on Michigan to cover
Georgia Tech maybe over rated after beating a Florida State in their opener in Dublin,a Seminoles program that is now 0-2 on the season after losing outright to BC last week as 17 point chalk. It must be noted that the Rambling Wreck are going against a Orange football program that 10-2 SU in their last 12 home openers and 9-0 SU in their first four games of the last couple of seasons. The Rambling Wreck, have also lost 8 of 11 SU, and are 2-9 ATS as road favorites dating back to in the 2014 season , including 1-8 SU in road openers dating back 9 seasons. Syracuse is also 30-16-1 ATS at home when coming off a victory, which was the case last week and look like they have an explosive QB in Kyle McCord who recorded 354 passing yards and four TD passes. Syracuse is not an easy out for Gtech and taking the points here is the call.
Play on the Syracuse to cover
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 22 years.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.
I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).