#142 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2 over West Virginia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - It’s time for the Backyard Brawl when the Pitt Panthers take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Pitt is looking for revenge after a 6-17 loss a year ago. In our opinion, the Panthers are an undervalued team right with a 2-0 SU/ATS record. Pitt opened the season with a resounding home win over Kent State 55-24 as a -24-point chalk. Last week they went to Cincinnati and won 28-27 as a 2-point dog. Pitt hired O-coordinator Kade Bell in the offseason and it’s immediately paying dividends with a unit that’s averaging 534 YPG, 7.2 YPP and rushing for nearly 200 YPG. The Panthers have gotten great QB play out of freshman Eli Holstein (Bama transfer) and running back Desmond Reid who is averaging 8.9 yards/rush. Holstein has thrown for over 300+ yards in the Panthers first two games. We are not sold on this West Virginia team that lost badly in the opener to Penn State 12-34 at home as a +7.5-point underdog, then beat weakling Albany last week 49-14 as a 38-point favorite. If we focus on the game against Penn State, the Neers managed just 246 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards/play. PSU put up 457 yards against West Virginia at 7.6 YPP. Penn State then hosted a bad Bowling Green team last week and allowed 375 total yards and 27-points. West Virginia doesn’t look as good as preseason expectations, and Pittsburgh looks much better than originally thought. Pitt is on a 4-1 ATS run in home games. The Neers had a negative point differential of minus -3.6 PPG on the road last season. We like the Pitt Panthers at home in this rivalry.

#140 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State +17 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Ducks have been as underwhelming in 2 wins as any team in the country.  While they are 2-0 SU, Oregon is 0-2 ATS losing by an average of almost 4 TD’s each game to the spread!  They seem to be trying to find their way offensively after losing almost 70% of their offensive yards last year including QB Nix to the NFL.  Gabriel (Oklahoma transfer) is the new QB and while he’s been solid, their running game has been nearly non-existent with 107 yards on the ground vs Idaho and 112 last week vs Boise State.  The Broncos had more than double Oregon’s yardage on the ground last week and held the Ducks to 352 total yards.  That’s the same Boise defense that allowed 45 points and 460 yards to Georgia Southern a week earlier.  It looks like Oregon State should control the trenches here.  We mentioned the Ducks struggles to run the ball but that hasn’t been a problem for the Beavers who have outrushed their opponents 599 to 154 through 2 weeks.  The Oregon defense allowed almost 7 YPC last week vs Boise so we look for OSU to have plenty of success running the ball in this game.  Last week many in our industry felt Oregon would bounce back at home vs Boise after almost losing to Idaho.  It didn’t happen as the Ducks were outplayed at home in their tight 37-34 win and if not for a 100 yard kick return AND an 85 yard punt return for TD by Oregon, the Broncos win that game fairly easily.  Now they are laying 17 points on the road against OSU in the Beavers most important game of the season.  We just don’t see it.  Oregon State has covered 4 in a row at home vs Oregon and we’re grabbing the points.  

#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium.  Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season.  New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year.  They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5.  They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards.  Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.  Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles).  The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week.  Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game.  While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1.  That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2.  As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1.  Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1.  Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards!  You get the point.  Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU.  Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday.

#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons.  Not even close.  The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts.  The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them.  They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season.  The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP.  Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC.  That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies.  AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC.  For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem.  Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State.  The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season.  On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation.  Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks.  Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco.  Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.

#172 ASA FREE PLAY ON Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Understand, these are two bad teams, but EMU holds an advantage in a few key areas and are playing at home with revenge from last season. The Eagles are off a thrashing against Washington but did open the season with a road win against Massachusetts, who we grade similarly to Jax State. In the game vs. UMass the Eagles put up 28-points, 375 total yards at 5.9YPP.  EMU QB Snyder was an efficient 17/28 for 241 yards and a TD. Jacksonville State opened the season with a blowout loss to Coastal Carolina, then traveled to Louisville last week and lost 14-49. The Gamecocks defense has been lit-up for 581 YPG (126th), 7.9 YPP (124th), 263 rushing yards per game (122nd) and 17.6 yards per completion (126th). Offensively JST has some major issues at the QB position with Tyler Huff struggling in two games with just 333 total yards and 2 TD’s to 3 INT’s. The Gamecocks are averaging 5.5 yards per play and 323 YPG with only 5 total trips to opponents Red Zone. The Eagles have won 9 straight home openers, Jax State has failed to cover three straight non-conference games.