Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres -110 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
15* Phillies/Padres NLCS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego -110 The San Diego Padres just beat a pair of 100-win teams in the Mets and Dodgers to get here. Now they take a big step down in class here against the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS, and we are getting them at basically even money in Game 1, which is good value. Yu Darvish is 18-8 with a 3.09 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 32 starts this season. Darvish has been at his best at home, going 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in 13 home starts. He is also 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia. Darvish has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in two starts against the Phillies in 2022. He'll be opposed by Zack Wheeler, who has been at his worst on the road this season at 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts away from home. The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games following an off day. The Padres are 15-4 in Darvish's last 19 starts with a total of 7 or less. Take the Padres in Game 1 Tuesday. |
|||||||
10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
20* 76ers/Celtics 2022 NBA Season Opener on Boston -2.5 There has been a lot of negative media attention surrounding the Boston Celtics this offseason due to the Ime Udoka suspension. I think there will be value on the Celtics in the early going because of it, especially in the opener as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers. Now 34-year-old Joe Mazzulla becomes the youngest coach in the league. I like everything I've heard from him and the players since the suspension and they'll be just fine. Few teams have a deeper roster than the Celtics, plus they added Malcolm Brogdon who averaged 19.1 points and 5.9 assists last season in Indiana. They only real key loss is Robert Williams due to injury. Conversely, there is a ton of hype surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason. That's because James Harden finally came into a training camp in shape. Well, Harden is still past his prime, and it's sad that people celebrate a player actually coming into camp in shape. Harden is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, in shape or not. The 76ers do not have the depth that the Celtics do this season. And I would take Boston's starting five over that of Philadelphia as well. The Celtics are loaded with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart and Horford. They are going to be tough to tame on offense, and all are plus defenders. Bet the Celtics Tuesday. |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
20* Broncos/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +4.5 The Denver Broncos had massive expectations coming into the season with the addition of Russell Westbrook. Their 2-3 start this season has them as one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as a result. But now we get the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Broncos, who could easily be 4-1 instead of 2-3. It seems as though the mistakes are easily correctable. The Broncos outgained the Colts by 69 yards last week and should have won. They were in the red zone looking to go up 10 late to put the game away, but Wilson threw a bad INT in the end zone. The Colts would go on to tie the game in the final seconds and win it in OT. That was the second game they gave away this season. They also lost 17-16 to the Seahawks despite outgaining them by 180 yards. The Broncos have the numbers of a 4-1 team and not a 2-3 team. They rank 18th in total offense at 343.6 yards per game and have had success running the football, they just haven't been able to turn it into points with their red zone struggles. They rank 3rd in total defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game. So they are outgaining teams by 54.6 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL. The Chargers are 3-2 this season and 4-1 ATS thus far. It's time to 'sell high' on them because of this start. They are only outgaining teams by 22.2 yards per game on the season. Their defense is a problem as they are giving up 27.2 points per game, 368.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed. That's not the sign of an elite team. I'll gladly back the much better defensive team in the Broncos. Keep in mind the three wins for the Chargers were against the Raiders, Texans and Browns. They were life and death in the 4th quarter with all three teams. They have a problem putting teams away because of their poor defense, and that's why they can't be laying 4.5 points here. Not having Joey Bosa really hurts them defensively, and it looks as though WR Keenan Allen will sit out again, and WR Mike Williams is also questionable. I love the spot for the Broncos, too. They have extended rest to recover and get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, and now get an extra day even with this being Monday Night Football. They have a lot of guys questionable on the injury report, so this break came at the right time. It's also extra time for them to correct their mistakes on offense, and I fully expect one of their best efforts of the season Monday night. The Broncos would be wise to utilize their running game more. It has been the strength of their offense, and it is the weakness of this Chargers defense. Wilson needs to swallow his pride and trust his teammates. The Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in four of five games this season. They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last (32nd) in yards per carry (5.8) allowed. This is also a great matchup for Denver's defense. The Chargers rely heavily on Justin Herbert to move the ball through the air. Well, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed at only 176.6 per game. They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Plays on underdogs or PK (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Broncos and a 'sell high' spot on the Chargers based on recent results. This line should be much closer to PK, especially when you consider the Chargers have zero home-field advantage. Bet the Broncos Monday. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys +6 v. Eagles | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 41 m | Show |
20* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6 Cooper Rush is now 5-0 as a starter for the Cowboys. He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat. He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2. He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3. He crushed the Commanders 25-10. And last week, he led the 22-10 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams as 5.5-point underdogs. Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak. The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 14.4 points per game, 311.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play allowed this season. I have backed the Cowboys each of the last three weeks, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon now. The betting public and the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good this team is, and that's the case again this week as they are catching 6 points against the Eagles. This line should only be Philadelphia -3 according to my power rankings, so we are getting a ton of value. A big reason I keep backing the Cowboys is their dominant defensive line. Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks averaging 4.0 per game with 20 total in five games. Well, the Eagles have four starters injured on the offensive line. All four may actually play, but they will have their hands full with this Dallas defensive line. The Cowboys have gotten back to running the football, which is when they have been at their best over the past several seasons. They rushed for 176 yards on the Giants and 163 yards on the Rams in two of their last three victories. The weakness of the Eagles is defending the run. They actually rank just 25th in the NFL in allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season. The Cowboys can continue to move the ball on the ground with Zeke and Pollard, opening up play-action for Rush and making things easier on him. He is making all the throws he needs to for this team to keep winning. The Eagles are having a hard time putting teams away this season. They let the Lions come back in a 3-point victory, and they let the Cardinals come back in another 3-point victory. They tried to let the Vikings come back, but Kirk Cousins kept turning the ball over. The Jaguars also had a chance to tie the game late in an 8-point loss. Their only complete performance was against the Commanders in a 24-8 victory, who are probably the worst team in the NFL. The Eagles are grossly overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start, so it's time to 'sell high' on them. The Cowboys own the Eagles, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. They have won the last three meetings all by 20 points or more. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Cowboys are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC East opponents, including 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons. Dallas is 11-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Yankees v. Guardians +165 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Yankees/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +165 The Cleveland Guardians have been the hottest team in baseball down the stretch. They have gone 26-6 in their last 32 games overall and aren't intimidated by the Yankees. They should not be home underdogs in Game 4 of this series tonight, especially with the Yankees reeling after blowing a 5-3 lead in the 9th inning last night. The Guardians have all the momentum now. Cal Quantrill is one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. He is 15-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 33 starts, including a perfect 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 19 home starts. The Guardians are 16-2 in Quantrill's last 18 starts overall. Gerrit Cole has come up short in the postseason before and is one of the most overrated starters in baseball. He is 14-8 with an identical 3.43 ERA to Quantrill, including a 3.81 ERA in 17 road starts this season. I'll gladly take the value with the home team today. Bet the Guardians in Game 4 Sunday. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bills -2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 46 m | Show |
20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5 The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0. Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards. The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers. They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons. We saw the same thing happen last year. After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City. Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs. They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game. So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23. The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play. That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season. You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now. S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations. Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3. The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run. It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point. The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive. They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home. That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them. Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game. The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out. They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense. The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game. Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game. I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon. They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night. They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday. Take the Bills. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Panthers +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 26 m | Show |
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5 I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week. They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009. They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him. Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury. That's addition by subtraction. This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win. In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented. QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready. This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers. I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS. I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals. So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them. I have a great read on this team. The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it. It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy. Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines. Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season. Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday. Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line. They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays. They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game. The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year. Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team. They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers. Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game. The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season. Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries. Bet the Panthers Sunday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | San Jose State -8.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 13 m | Show |
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -8.5 San Jose State looks like the cream of the crop in the Mountain West this season. Remember, they won the Mountain West in 2020 before having a down 5-7 season last year. But Brent Brennan is in his 6th season here and arguably the best head coach in the conference. He has the Spartans back motivated to win another title in 2022. San Jose State is off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. Their only loss came 16-24 at Auburn in which they hung right with an SEC opponent. They proceeded to beat Western Michigan by 28, Wyoming by 17 and UNLV by 33. That win over UNLV was no joke as the Rebels had been pretty good up to that point, and Wyoming has been playing well also. Now the Spartans will beat up on a Fresno State team that has failed to meet expectations. Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State. That has been the case here. They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford. After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs have lost four consecutive games and are 0-5 ATS as well. They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since. He's simply irreplaceable. They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs. Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country. San Jose State is far and away better than both teams. Fresno State QB Logan Fife has been a disaster in Haener's place. He has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has already thrown four interceptions. He has also rushed for just 2 years on 20 attempts. Fife and the Bulldogs will get nothing against this San Jose State defense, which is holding opponents to 14.0 points per game, 288 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. Hawaii transfer Chandler Cordeiro has been awesome for the Spartans. He has thrown for 1,308 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio through five games, while also rushing for 186 yards and six scores. He leads a San Jose State offense that is averaging 28.8 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season. The Spartans won't be afraid to run up the score, either. They lost 40-9 at home to Haener and Fresno State last year and want revenge. San Jose State is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Spartans are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Plays on any team (San Jose State) - after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games against an opponent that is off a loss by 17 points or more are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet San Jose State Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Dodgers -116 v. Padres | 3-5 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
15* Dodgers/Padres NLDS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -116 The Los Angeles Dodgers will bounce back following consecutive losses to the Padres to fall behind 2-1 in this series. They have a big advantage on the mound today, and the experience advantage as the Padres aren't used to trying to close out a series. That is the hardest game to win for inexperienced teams. Tyler Anderson is 14-5 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 28 starts this season for the Dodgers. Anderson owns the Padres, going 6-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in 14 career starts against them. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Padres in 2022. Joe Musgrove is having a solid season overall, but he cannot figure out the Dodgers. In fact, Musgrove is 0-6 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in nine career starts against them, having never beaten Los Angeles. He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in six of his nine career starts against the Dodgers. Roll with the Dodgers in Game 4 Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Clemson v. Florida State +3.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 12 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +3.5 Clemson's 6-0 record has them overvalued while Florida State's back-to-back losses to fall to 4-2 has them undervalued this week. It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson and a great time to 'buy low' on Florida State, so we have the perfect storm here to get value on the Seminoles as home underdogs. The numbers tell me that Florida State is actually the better team this season and should not be the underdog. The Seminoles have played the 20th-toughest schedule in the country, while Clemson has played the 75th-toughest. That difference in strength of schedule when you compare the numbers of these teams will help you understand why I like Florida State so much in this game. The Seminoles have elite numbers. They are averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.8 yards per play on defense. They are outgaining teams by 2.3 yards per play on the season. Clemson averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play. So Florida State is a full one yard per play better than Clemson and has played a much tougher schedule. Yards per play are the most predictable stats in football when comparing how good teams are. The Seminoles are elite in this category. I like the fact that this is a night game in Tallahassee Saturday night with kickoff set for 7:30 EST. It will be a raucous atmosphere with unbeaten Clemson coming to town. The Tigers have escaped with some narrow victories over Wake Forest and NC State up to this point. Their luck runs out in what will be their toughest test of the season to date Saturday night. Clemson is 1-10 ATS when the total is 49.5 to 56 points over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 14 points or less. Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Florida State Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Yankees v. Guardians +110 | 5-6 | Win | 110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
15* Yankees/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +110 The Cleveland Guardians have been the hottest team in baseball down the stretch. They have gone 25-6 in their last 31 games overall and aren't intimidated by the Yankees. They should not be home underdogs in Game 3 of this series tonight. Triston McKenzie is 11-10 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 14 home starts. McKenzie is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees. He pitched 7 shutout innings in his lone start against New York this season. He pitched 6 shutout innings against the Rays in his first playoff start. Luis Severino hasn't pitched since October 3rd and has a 5.20 ERA in his last seven starts on extended rest. Severino is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Guardians, allowing 10 earned runs and 7 homers in 18 2/3 innings. Take the Guardians in Game 3 Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Mississippi State -4 v. Kentucky | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 57 m | Show | |
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4 This is the best team Mississippi State has had since Dak Prescott was in Starkville. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season with all five victories in blowout fashion by 18 points or more and their lone loss coming on the road at LSU. That loss to LSU has had them undervalued the past two weeks and again this week. The Bulldogs have promptly crushed Texas A&M 42-24 as 4-point home favorites and Arkansas 40-17 as 8-point home favorites. There was nothing fluky about either of those victories. The Bulldogs have solid numbers this season averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play on defense. Kentucky has been overvalued since a 4-0 starts against a very soft schedule with three wins coming against Miami Ohio, Youngstown State and Northern Illinois by 8 as a 26-point favorite at home. They lost 19-22 at Ole Miss, and then were upset 14-24 at home by a terrible South Carolina team last week. QB Will Levis sat out that South Carolina game, and even if he returns this week he won't be 100%. Mississippi State beat Kentucky 31-17 last season in what was a bigger blowout than the final score would even indicate. The Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 438 to 216, or by 222 total yards. But Kentucky had a punt return TD in that game that made it closer than it was. Levis threw for just 150 yards on 28 attempts with 3 interceptions in the loss. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers lit up the Wildcats, completing 36-of-39 passes for 344 yards and a touchdown in the win. It should be more of the same in the rematch this season as the Bulldogs have gotten better in the offseason, while the Wildcats have gotten worse. Kentucky is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after having won four or five of its last six games. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - off a conference home win, with four or more returning starters than their opponent are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Mississippi State Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | James Madison -11.5 v. Georgia Southern | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 27 m | Show | |
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison -11.5 James Madison is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season. It takes oddsmakers a lot of time to catch up to how good teams are in college football, and conversely how bad they are based on preseason expectations. Nothing was expected of the Dukes in their first season as an FBS school coming up from the FCS. But the Dukes are quickly showing they are the best team in the Sun Belt and honestly one of the better teams in college football. They aren't just winning, they are dominating. The Dukes are scoring 44.2 points per game, averaging 489 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense. They are allowing 15.0 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play on defense. They are outscoirng opponents by 29.2 points per game and outgaining them by 256 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play. Georgia Southern is also improved this season under first-year head coach Clay Helton. They even pulled the 45-42 upset at Nebraska. They are 3-3 this season with losses to UAB, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State. They have a very good offense that is putting up 37.0 points per game, 492 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. So they can hang with the Dukes offensively. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they aren't going to get any stops defensively. They allow 30.3 points per game 457 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 26.8 points per game, 403 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. James Madison has the best defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season by far, and Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses that the Dukes will have faces this season. The key handicap here is Georgia Southern's inability to stop James Madison's potent rushing attack. The Dukes average 215 rushing yards per game, but they also have balance with 274 passing yards per game. Georgia Southern allows 227 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry this season. You can't simply fix a poor run defense in one week. Conversely, James Madison only allows 46 rushing yards per game and 1.6 yards per carry this season. The Dukes will be able to extend their lead in the second half by being able to run the football at will. Roll with James Madison Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Michigan State | 28-34 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -7.5 A coaching change was just what the doctor ordered at Wisconsin. Paul Chryst has been failing to meet expectations for several years now with the Badgers only making the Big Ten title game once the past four seasons despite playing in the easy West Division. Players are clearly happy to move on to defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, a former Badger who was in line to be their next head coach anyway. Boy did the players ever respond. After falling 34-10 at home to Illinois that led to the firing of Chryst, the Badgers responded with a 42-7 trouncing of Northwestern last week. That was a Northwestern team that had only lost by 10 at Penn State in their previous game. The defense was as dominant as usual, and the offense had the biggest boost with a whopping 515 total yards. Graham Mertz must be freed up the most, having a career game with 299 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in the win. Now the Badgers will stomp a Michigan State team that has been overvalued this season due to going 11-2 last season. The Spartans are a far cry from that team this season. Signing Mel Tucker to a new contract was not the right move. He has lost this team after a 2-0 start with wins over lowly Western Michigan and Akron. The Spartans proceeded to go 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive. They lost 28-39 at Washington and gave up 503 total yards. They lost 7-34 at home to Minnesota and gave up 508 total yards. They lost 27-13 at Maryland and allowed 489 total yards. And last week they lost 20-49 at home to Ohio State and gave up 614 total yards. They were outgained by 412 total yards by the Buckeyes in what was an even bigger blowout than 29-point loss showed. So we have two teams headed in opposite directions here. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers after their disappointing 3-3 start. They are a much better team than they have shown and have a high ceiling now with Leonhard at the helm and the talent on this roster. I don't see it getting better for the Spartans any time soon because they cannot stop anyone defensively, and they only rush for 109 yards per game on offense so they have no balance, putting a ton of pressure on QB Payton Thorne that he cannot handle. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Wisconsin is a similar team to Minnesota, and I expect this to be similar to the 34-7 victory the Gophers had at Michigan State earlier this season. Roll with Wisconsin Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Alabama v. Tennessee +7.5 | 49-52 | Win | 100 | 63 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +7.5 What more does Tennessee have to do to prove they are for real? They will this week when they give Alabama a run for its money and likely pull off the upset. It will be one of the best atmospheres in Tennessee ever for this game, so the Vols are going to have a huge home-field advantage. The Vols are 5-0 and legit national title contenders. I was on Tennessee last week when they blasted LSU 40-13 on the road as 2.5-point favorites. They were coming off a bye, so they will still be fresh for this game against the Crimson Tide. The Vols are elite on both sides of the football. While the offense gets all the attention, it's the underrated defense that makes them title contenders and gives them a shot to pull off this upset. Indeed, the Vols are only allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.2 yards per play, holding opponents to 11.6 points per game and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages. They are scoring 46.8 points per game and averaging 7.2 yards per play, scoring 18.4 points per game and averaging 1.5 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average. So they are outgaining teams by 2.0 yards per play on the season, which is elite. The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker. He now has a 41-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns. He will keep the Vols in this game for four quarters. Alabama has escaped with a couple victories at Texas 20-19 and at home against Texas A&M 24-20. They are fortunate to be 6-0. I know Bryce Young is likely back at QB this week, but he won't be 100% with the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. Even if he was 100%, the Vols could hang just as Texas did with Young in there. Alabama rushes for 258 yards per game this season. To be able to hang with Alabama, you have to be able to stop the run. Tennessee is up to the challenge. The Vols only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt, holding opponents to 71 yards per game and 1.8 per attempt less than their season averages. Plays against road favorites (Alabama) - after one or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive wins are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. This is a passing of the torch moment and Tennessee's best chance to beat Alabama since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa. Take Tennessee Saturday. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Iowa State +17 v. Texas | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 29 m | Show |
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +17 It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Texas Longhorns off their 49-0 dismantling of Oklahoma. They will be feeling fat and happy after ending their four-game losing streak to their biggest rivals in the Sooners. They won't be nearly as motivated to face Iowa State this week, and they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for because of it. Keep in mind everyone is dominating Oklahoma right now. Kansas State upset them on the road. Dillon Gabriel got hurt against TCU when they were already getting blasted and eventually lost 55-24. That's the same TCU team that should have lost to Kansas last week. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma without Gabriel, and somehow the Sooners don't have a capable backup quarterback. It's also an 'Oklahoma sandwich' for the Longhorns with Oklahoma State on deck next week. That game could decide the Big 12 title. In the meantime the Longhorns have to face a pesky Iowa State team that could easily be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3. But because of that poor record, it's time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones off three consecutive defeats. Iowa State's losing streak started with a 31-24 home loss to Baylor, which may be the best team in the Big 12. It continued with a 14-11 loss at Kansas in which the Cyclones outgained the Jayhawks 313 to 213 but missed three field goals and should have won. And last week they lost 10-9 to Kansas State at home. Kansas State's only touchdown came on a broken play early, and the Cyclones shut them down the rest the way. Iowa State's elite defense can keep them in this game. The Cyclones only allow 13.7 points, per game, 278 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that normally average 27.3 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 13.6 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages. They'll come up with a game plan to slow down Ewers and this Texas offense. Iowa State is not an easy team to blow out. In fact, the Cyclones have only lost by more than 17 points once in their 70 games over the past six seasons, and that was a 33-9 loss to Notre Dame in the 2019 Camping World Bowl. That makes for a 69-1 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 17-point spread. Enough said. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
20* Dodgers/Padres NLDS No-Brainer on Los Angeles -115 Getting the Los Angeles Dodgers at nearly even money against the San Diego Padres is a gift from oddsmakers tonight. They have the better starter and have been here before. They should be much bigger than -115 favorites in Game 3. Tony Gonsolin is 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 7-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 12 road starts. Gonsolin has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 (5-0 money line) with a 1.55 ERA and 0.758 WHIP in five career starts against them. Blake Snell is 8-10 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 home starts. Snell has been one of the most overvalued starters in baseball this season as the Padres are 9-16 (-13.9 Units) in his 25 starts, including 5-10 (-11.6 Units) in his 15 home starts. The Dodgers are 41-13 in their last 54 vs. NL West opponents. Los Angeles is 67-24 in its last 91 games overall. The Dodgers are 50-20 in their last 70 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 41-17 in the last 58 meetings. The Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 divisional playoff games, including 0-4 in their last four divisional playoff home games. Bet the Dodgers Friday. |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears +107 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107 The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going. They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats. They also beat Houston. Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are falling off the rails. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion. They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee. They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4. The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football. And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen. The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game. Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here. There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night. That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm. That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered. The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season. Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses. The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant. The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out. Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday. |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Baylor -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
20* Baylor/West Virginia FS1 No-Brainer on Baylor -3 The numbers show the Baylor Bears are the way better team in this matchup. That's why I'm willing to lay the -3 on the road with them despite the fact that Morgantown is usually a tough place to play and I'm normally looking to back the Mountaineers at home. I think the Bears get the job done by more than a field goal Thursday night. Baylor and West Virginia have played similar strength of schedules, so the numbers tell the story pretty accurately here. Baylor is outscoring opponents 37.4 to 20.6 on average this season, while West Virginia is only outscoring foes 38.2 to 29.6 on average. The more telling stats are yards per play. Baylor averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 on defense, outgaining teams by 1.6 yards per play. WVU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.7 on defense, only outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play. West Virginia was just blasted 38-20 at Texas in its last game. That was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as it was 35-7 entering the 4th quarter. The Mountaineers scored a couple garbage time touchdowns. They also lost arguably their best weapon on offense in RB CJ Donaldson to a concussion, and he will be out Thursday. He has rushed for 389 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.9 per carry. His backup Mathis Jr. only averages 4.2 yards per carry, so it's a big downgrade. Baylor could easily be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2. The Bears blew the game in OT in a 26-20 loss at BYU. They played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 25-36 final would indicate. Baylor had 457 total yards against Oklahoma State and held the Cowboys to a season-low 379 yards. But they gave up 9 points on a kickoff return and a safety that was the difference. If they were 5-0 instead of 3-2, they would be bigger favorites. Baylor blasted West Virginia 45-20 at home last season. The Bears had 525 total yards and allowed 362 to the Mountaineers, outgaining them by 163 yards. The key to this victory will be Baylor winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Baylor only allows 2.8 yards per carry this season, and now WVU won't have the threat of a running game without Donaldson. WVU QB JT Daniels is going to be under pressure the entire game. The Bears are 20-4-2 ATS int heir last 26 games following an ATS loss. West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games. Bet Baylor Thursday. |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Mariners +150 v. Astros | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
15* Mariners/Astros ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +150 The Seattle Mariners aren't lacking any confidence at the plate right now in the postseason. They have scored 21 combined runs in their first three playoff games. They have also scored at least 4 runs in six consecutive games dating back to the regular season. Look for the Mariners to bounce back following a tough Game 1 loss where they blew a 7-3 lead. Luis Castillo will get them back in the win column. He is 9-6 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 26 starts this season. Castillo fired 7 1/3 shutout innings against the potent Blue Jays in a 4-0 victory last time out. Framber Valdez is having a solid season overall, but he has lost his touch here down the stretch. Valdez is 1-1 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 13 runs, 10 earned and 27 base runners in 15 2/3 innings. Valdez allowed 3 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Mariners this season. Seattle is 35-17 in its last 52 road games. The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Mariners Thursday. |
|||||||
10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -136 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -136 The Atlanta Braves will bounce back after losing as -200 favorites to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1. This is a much better value on the Braves in Game 2 as they are now just -136 favorites against the Phillies in essentially what is a 'must win'. They've been winning 'must win' games consistently for two seasons now. Kyle Wright is 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 30 starts this season. Wright has been at his best at home, going 13-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 17 home starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last two starts against the Phillies, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The Braves are 16-1 in Wright's last 17 starts. Atlanta is 44-13 in its last 57 during Game 2 of a series. The Braves are 42-13 in their last 55 home games. Atlanta is 11-4 in its last 15 home meetings with Philadelphia. Bet the Braves Wednesday. |
|||||||
10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+100) The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the San Diego Padres. Look for them to win this game by two runs or more with ease due to that advantage. They have owned the Padres as well, going 14-5 against them this season, including 8-2 at home. Julio Urias is 17-7 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 31 starts this season. Urias owns the Padres, going 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. He is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last six starts against them, allowing just 4 earned runs in 36 innings. Mike Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.25 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA in 13 road starts. Clevinger has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in four career starts against them. He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 14 innings in those five starts. The Dodgers are 29-5 in Urias' 34 starts in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and winning by 3.0 runs per game. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday. |
|||||||
10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 179 h 15 m | Show |
20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51 This one is as simply as it gets. When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively. This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot. The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31. Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat. They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1. It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit. He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns. The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders. It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play. The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games. They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point. They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs. The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time. The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game. Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs. The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Cowboys +6 v. Rams | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 152 h 37 m | Show |
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6 Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys. He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat. He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2. He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3. And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10. Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak. The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season. Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks. You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks? The 49ers. Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week. Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line. The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys will do the same. The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason. Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton. G Edwards is questionable for this one. Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything. Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson. WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods. There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well. They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona. But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season. They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco. They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog. They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB. This line should be much closer to PK than -6. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage. There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even. Bet the Cowboys Sunday. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 33 m | Show |
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5 The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate. They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point. They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far. The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play. They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play. They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed. Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters. They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory. They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16. In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive. They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3. It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week. Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack. And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins. This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either. The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is. To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play. Arizona has zero home-field advantage. In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games. Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards. Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona. Take the Eagles Sunday. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Falcons +8.5 v. Bucs | 15-21 | Win | 100 | 148 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5 The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season. They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season. They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs. As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score. I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs. The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs. They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play. The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings. This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play. They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady. After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week. They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City. Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football. That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush. The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries. These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are. Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Falcons Sunday. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +3 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 97 h 58 m | Show |
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +3 If the Cleveland Browns were 4-0 like they should be, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers. But since they are 2-2 right now instead, we are getting value on the Browns. It's a great time to 'buy low' on them off a loss and non-cover, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Chargers off a win and cover. Let's explain why the Browns should be 4-0. They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards in their 26-24 road win. They outgained the Steelers by 68 yards in their 29-17 home win. They blew a 13-point lead against the Jets in the final two minutes and lost 30-31 despite outgaining them. And they outgained the Falcons by 70 yards in their 20-23 road loss last week due to red zone struggles. So they have outgained all four opponents this season and have elite numbers. Cleveland ranks 4th in total offense at 384.8 yards per game and 9th in total defense at 326.0 yards per game. Jacoby Brissett has been better than everyone expected, and he can thrive behind one of the league's best rushing attacks. The Browns rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing for 187.3 yards per game this season. And that is going to be their key to victory because they are going to be able to run all over this Chargers defense. The Chargers are also 2-2 this season, but they are getting a lot of love because Justin Herbert looked healthy last week in their win over the Texans. But the Texans may be the worst team in the NFL, and that was a 3-point game late in the 4th quarter. They tacked on one final score to get the win and cover. Their other win came against the Raiders, who are 1-3 and their two wins have come against two teams that are 1-6-1 this season. When the Chargers stepped up in class, they lost. They lost 24-27 at Kansas City only after scoring a last-second, meaningless TD. They suffered a ton of injuries in that game that they are still dealing with now. They came back and were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars at home. They are still without two of their best players in T Slater and LB Bosa, and they could be without WR Allen again, who is questionable. While the Chargers will be fine on offense moving forward for the most part, it's their defense that is going to be the problem in this game against the Browns. They rank 31st in the NFL in allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry. That's really bad when you consider they have faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars and Texans. Only the Jaguars have a decent rushing attack, and they rushed for 151 yards on the Chargers. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have monster games in this one. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a mistake-free team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Myles Garrett returned to practice on Wednesday after sitting out the Atlanta game. That's a good sign he will be able to play this week. And head coach Kevin Stefanski was hopeful Jadeveon Clowney would return later this week. If they get one or both back it would be a huge boost. The Chargers are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Roll with the Browns Sunday. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 46 | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46 The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team. They have an elite offense and a suspect defense. The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs. They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play. They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed. I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively. But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense. They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week. They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward. The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week. They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City. Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football. That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush. The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total. They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings. The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Oregon v. Arizona +13 | 49-22 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +13 The Arizona Wildcats were much more competitive than their 1-11 record would indicate last season. They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers. They are off to a 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS start despite being underdogs in four of five games. They pulled the upsets over San Diego State and North Dakota State with their only losses coming to Mississippi State and California in games they were competitive deep into the 2nd half. Now they take on Oregon, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games against a pretty soft schedule with three home wins and a fortunate 44-41 win at Washington State. Their other road game resulted in a 49-3 loss to Georgia. They have a big home/away discrepancy. Arizona lost 41-19 at Oregon last year in what was one of the most misleading final scores of the season. Arizona actually outgained Oregon 435 to 393 in that game, but gave it away by being -5 in turnovers. The Wildcats are vastly improved this season, and a big part of that is Washington State transfer QB Jayden de Laura. He is completing 62.8% of his passes for 1,633 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 60 yards and a score. He can keep the Wildcats in this game for four quarters. Plays on home teams (Arizona) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 yards per play or more in two consecutive games are 80-32 (71.4%) ATS since 1992. The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Oregon is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Oregon. Roll with Arizona Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
20* Phillies/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on St. Louis +111 The St. Louis Cardinals blew a 2-0 lead in the 9th inning yesterday. They were 93-0 in postseason history when having a 2-run lead or higher in the 9th inning. Look for them to bounce back in a big way today. They should not be home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2. We have underrated starter Miles Mikolas against overrated starter Aaron Nola. These starters have similar numbers, yet Mikolas is a home dog. Mikolas has a 3.30 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 32 starts this season, while Nola has a 3.25 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 32 starts. Mikolas has been at his best at home, going 6-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.834 WHIP in 14 home starts. He is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. He has held the Phillies to just 3 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them. Nolas has allowed 8 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals. The Phillies are 13-21 (-12.4 Units) in Nola's 34 road starts over the past two seasons. The Cardinals are 11-3 (+8.8 Units) in Mikolas' last 14 starts with a line of +125 to -125. The Phillies are 3-12 (-10.9 Units) in Nola's 15 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season. Bet the Cardinals Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 68 h 36 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +2 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Iowa State Cyclones this week. They are coming off two losses to Baylor and Kansas by a combined 10 points in which they arguably could have won both. Look for them to give an 'A' effort here to try and avoid a three-game losing streak. Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on Kansas State. They are coming off two straight wins and covers against Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Of course, that win over Oklahoma doesn't look nearly as good after the Sooners were just blasted 55-24 by TCU last week. And Texas Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and they only won by 37-28 at home despite forcing four turnovers. I love the matchup for the Cyclones. They rank 7th in the country against the run, allowing just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season. Kansas State relies on moving the football on ground, averaging 267 rushing yards per game compared to only 139 passing yards. Adrian Martinez is beating teams with his legs rather than his arm. Well, we saw what Iowa State did to Kansas last week. Nobody had been able to stop Kansas dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels up to that point. Iowa State held him to just 9 rushing yards on 8 carries, and 7-of-14 passing for 93 yards. And he's a better passer than Martinez. The Cyclones held that high-powered Kansas offense to just 213 total yards and 10 first downs. They would have won the game if not for 3 missed field goals. They will hold Martinez in check this week as well. Kansas State may have the slightly better offense than Iowa State, but it's close. There's no debate that Iowa State has the better defense. They are holding teams to 256 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season, while K-State is allowing 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play. So I'm getting the better defense as a home underdog in what is a home run spot where they need this win like blood to avoid their third consecutive defeat. Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game. The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings after winning 33-20 on the road last year and 45-0 at home in 2020. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Army +17.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 36 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +17.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on Army. They are off to a disappointing 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start against a tough schedule. They have played arguably the best team in the Sun Belt in Coastal Carolina and lost by 10. They also lost to arguably the best team in Conference USA in UTA by 3. Their 14-31 loss to Georgia State last week as a 9-point favorite is what is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on them. They rushed for 354 yards in that game, but gave the game away by committing three turnovers. Wake Forest is in a massive letdown spot. The Demon Deacons are coming off three straight hard-fought games. They were nearly upset by Liberty in a 37-36 win. They were probably looking ahead to Clemson, who they lost to 45-51 in double-OT. They bounced back last week with a 31-21 upset win at Florida State. I just don't think the Demon Deacons have much left in the tank. They really needed a bye this week, but instead they will have to face Army's triple-option, which isn't fun to prepare for let alone face. Last year, Army kept Pace with Wake Forest in a 70-56 home loss as 3-point underdogs. Both teams have similar returning starters, but now Wake Forest is a 17.5-point favorite in the rematch, a 14.5-point adjustment. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons after a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. This is the spot they let down similar to when they nearly let Liberty beat them three weeks ago at home. Jeff Monken is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage as the coach of Army. The Black Knights have played 29 games over the past three seasons. They've only lost once by more than 17 points. That makes for a 28-1 system backing the Black Knights pertaining to this 17.5-point spread. Take Army Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -3 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 114 h 4 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -3 I love the spot for Louisiana Tech. They are coming off a bye week after a 1-3 start this season. They have played a brutal schedule with their three losses all coming on the road to Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama, while they crushed Stephen F. Austin 52-17 as 6.5-point favorites in their lone home game. The bye came at a great time after this brutal schedule so they can regroup and get ready for conference play. Byes also tend to benefit teams more with a first-year head coach like the Bulldogs have in Sonny Cumbie. Turnovers have been the biggest issue for the Bulldogs as they have committed 12 in those three road losses. Look for them to focus on ball security in practice for two weeks, and to come out with a big effort here Saturday night as they take a big step down in class against UTEP. This is a terrible spot for the Miners. They are a tired team right now as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week to start the season. They are in a letdown spot after upsetting Boise State 27-10 at home followed by a 41-35 win as 3.5-point favorites at Charlotte last week. That shootout win will have taken a lot out of them. Now they have to travel back to the Eastern Time Zone for a 2nd consecutive week, just amplifying their fatigue factor. Keep in mind this UTEP team also has bad losses to North Texas 31-13 and New Mexico 27-10. They have played the easier strength of schedule with their other win coming against New Mexico State. Their numbers are not very good as they average 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally average giving up 5.9 yards per play on defense. They average 20.7 points per game against teams that normally allow 30.2 points per game. To compare, LA Tech is actually averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense against teams that normally give up only 5.5 per play on defense. Look for them to have one of their best offensive performances of the season this week similar to what they had against Stephen F. Austin when they scored 52 points and had 515 total yards against a quality FCS opponent. LA Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week. UTEP is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. Take Louisiana Tech Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | East Carolina +3.5 v. Tulane | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 35 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3.5 East Carolina is better than Tulane, period. The Pirates should not be underdogs in this game, especially against a Tulane team that was down to their third-string QB against Houston last week. They are overvalued due to winning that game 27-24 in a game they had no business winning. They were outgained 273 to 383 by Houston, or by 110 total yards. This line indicates the Green Wave will get QB Michael Pratt back this week from a shoulder injury even though he's listed as questionable. But it's not going to matter. The Green Wave are a fraudulent 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and it's time to 'sell high' on them. This is a team that went 2-10 last season and is exceeding expectations and getting too much respect now as a result. East Carolina is 3-2 and should be 5-0. They have outgained all five opponents this season. That includes their 20-21 loss to NC State in which they missed an extra point late. They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 3-point OT loss, so they are 4 points away from being undefeated. They have elite numbers on both sides of the football despite playing a pretty tough schedule. East Carolina is averaging 35.2 points per game, 486 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense. They are only giving up 20.6 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense. I love their balanced offense that averages 172 yards per game on the ground and 314 yards per game through the air. Holton Ahlers is arguably the best QB in the conference. He is completing 68.6% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 81 yards and a score. East Carolina crushed Tulane 52-29 last year and gained 612 total yards in a dominant effort. Ahlers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for a score. The Pirates are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as road underdogs of 7 points or less. Tulane is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games off a close road win by 3 points or less, losing by a whopping 27.6 points per game in this spot. The Pirates are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Green Wave get exposed this week. Bet East Carolina Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | South Florida +28 v. Cincinnati | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 86 h 42 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +28 Cincinnati isn't as good as last year when they made the four-team playoff. Making the playoff has them overvalued this season. No question the Bearcats are still the class of the AAC, but they should not be favored by four touchdowns over South Florida this week. Their only win this season by more than 21 points came against Keenesaw State as a 29-point favorite. They also beat Miami Ohio by 21 and their backup QB. They only outgained a bad Indiana team by 46 yards in a misleading 45-24 final. And last week they only outgained Tulsa by 79 yards in a 10-point victory. I'm not high on South Florida as I faded them last week with a free pick on East Carolina that cashed in a 48-28 win as 9.5-point favorites. However, I was impressed that USF kept trying to punch back after getting down big early. And we've seen them nearly upset Florida in a 28-31 loss as 23-point road underdogs. If they were 23-point road dogs to Florida, they should not be 28-point dogs to Cincinnati. USF just owns Cincinnati from a point spread perspective. Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS In the last seven meetings. In fact, dating back to 2003, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of their 19 meetings. That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 28-point spread. Roll with South Florida Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Rays v. Guardians -102 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
15* Rays/Guardians AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -102 The Cleveland Guardians are the hottest team in baseball heading into the postseason. They have gone 23-5 in their last 28 games overall. They carried that momentum into their 2-1 Game 1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 4-13 in their last 17 games overall and playing their worst baseball of the season. They can't just turn on the switch now in the postseason. Getting the hot Guardians and Triston McKenzie at basically even money is great value in Game 2 today. McKenzie is 11-10 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 30 starts this season, 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.898 WHIP in 13 home starts and 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts. McKenzie has a 2.25 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay, both of which resulted in victories for Cleveland. He'll be opposed by Tyler Glasnow, who will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Rays. That's a tall task to ask him to be in top form in such a short time with their season on the line today. Take the Guardians Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Tennessee -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 40-13 | Win | 100 | 107 h 18 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -2.5 I love this spot for the Tennessee Vols. They are coming off a bye week after their big win over Florida. Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers and will be the fresher team. And I don't think the country has caught up to how good the Volunteers are this season. They are legitimate SEC title contenders. The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker. He now has a 39-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns. Hooker and Josh Heupel have this offense humming, averaging 48.5 points per game, 559.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play against opponents that normally allow 31 points per game, 414 yards per game and 5.8 per play. The defense is holding opponents to 19.0 points per game and 5.3 yards per play against offenses that normally average 27.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. Florida put up a lot of points and yards late to hurt those averages when the game was already decided, and that was really a misleading 38-33 final. I just don't think LSU is very good and it's going to take some time for Brian Kelly to get them back to SEC title contention. They lost to Florida State in the opener before reeling off three straight home wins with two of them coming against Southern and New Mexico. The Mississippi State win was a good one, so they deserve credit for that. But last week's 21-17 win at Auburn was very alarming. That's an Auburn team that is way down this season and nearly lost to both San Jose State and Missouri at home. They were outgained 438 to 270 by Auburn, or by 168 total yards. Auburn gave that game away by committing four turnovers, including one that was returned for a TD when they led 17-0. That's also an Auburn team that lost 41-12 at home to Penn State and was playing with a backup QB against LSU. Now LSU will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, while Tennessee comes in rested and ready to go. Fatigue and injuries will catch up with the Tigers this week. I also like a hidden factor here, which is that the kickoff is at 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon. Baton Rouge at night is a much more difficult place to play than Baton Rouge in the early window on Saturday's. The road team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Tennessee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Bet Tennessee Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 60 h 15 m | Show | |
15* TCU/Kansas FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +7 Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country. He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program. He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year. The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset. They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season. Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2. The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1. They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play. In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs. That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season. In Week 3, they upset Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs. That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season. They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke two weeks ago, a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 in all other games this season. Last week, it seemed everyone thought they'd lose to Iowa State, but they pulled out the 14-11 upset as 3.5-point underdogs and I backed them again. I'm back on them again this week because they are still getting disrespected as 7-point home underdogs to TCU. ESPN College Gameday will be in Lawrence this week to cover this team and their 5-0 start, so there will be no letdown for the Jayhawks, especially learning that they are underdogs again. Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 41.6 points per game, 421.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. They are also holding opponents to 385 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.1 yards per play. Their defense showed last week they could win a game for them when needed. Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 220 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry. They are also completing 68.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game. I think this is a bad spot for TCU, and they are getting way too much respect for their 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma. That's the same Oklahoma team that was upset by Kansas State at home the previous week and clearly has issues. Plus, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel got injured in the first half against TCU, and they were doomed from there. But unlike Kansas, TCU is getting respect for its 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season. They will meet their match this week in the Jayhawks. The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and covering by 16.3 points per game. That includes their 28-31 loss at TCU as 21-point dogs last year, which they will be out for revenge for to add to their motivation. I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now. Roll with Kansas Saturday. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 59 | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 60 h 3 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan/Indiana UNDER 59 Indiana isn't going to be able to score enough on this elite Michigan defense to be able to top 59 combined points. The books have missed their mark badly with this one. The Hoosiers have some serious injury issues at receiver that are hampering their offense. Two starters in Cam Camper and DJ Matthews are questionable while both Smith and Baker are out. The Hoosiers managed just 21 points and 290 total yards against a terrible Nebraska defense last week. That's the same Nebraska defense that gave up 49 points to Oklahoma, 45 to Georgia Southern and 31 to Northwestern. This Indiana offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they do have a solid defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 6.0 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages. Michigan has another elite defense this season in allowing just 11.6 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play. Michigan loves to run the football, averaging 40 rush attempts per game compared to 25 passing. They will get off to a big early lead and then sit on it with their running game, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket. These teams combined for just 36 points last season. In fact, each of the last six meetings between Michigan and Indiana have seen 59 or fewer combined points, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total. They have combined for an average of just 44.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six meetings. Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Indiana) - after one or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 70-29 (70.7%) over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
10-07-22 | UNLV +7 v. San Jose State | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
20* UNLV/SJSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7 The UNLV Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country. There has been nothing fluky about their 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. Their lone loss came on the road to Cal as 13-point underdogs by a final of 20-14. They won their other four games by double-digits by 31 over Idaho State, by 31 over North Texas, by 10 over Utah State and by 11 over New Mexico. Doug Brumfield is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and gets no national attention. He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores. It has been a balanced offensive attack that has been tough to tame with the Rebels averaging 169 yards on the ground and 254 yards through the air. They are scoring 37.8 points per game. The Rebels have an improved defense this season as well. They are allowing just 22.4 points per game, 356.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. This is at least an average defense now, plus one of the best offenses in the MAC. They should be able to give San Jose State all they can handle in this one. I think San Jose State is getting too much credit for its 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start. The lone loss came at Auburn, and while it was competitive, Auburn is way down this season. They only beat Portland State by 4 as 22-point favorites. They beat a Western Michigan team that was playing with a freshman QB and a Wyoming team that was playing with another terrible QB. They have faced four bad quarterbacks this season and haven't faced anyone nearly as talented as Brumfeld. A bad UNLV team gave San Jose State a run for its money last year in a 27-20 defeat. I think both teams are improved, but there's no question the Rebels are more improved. These teams have faced similar strength of schedules and have similar numbers. UNLV is outgaining teams by 66 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play, while San Jose State is outgaining teams by 61 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play. This game should be lined much closer to PK than -7. Brent Brennan is 0-7 ATS in home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points as the coach of San Jose State having never covered in this spot with the Spartans losing by a whopping 26.3 points per game. The Rebels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Bet UNLV Friday. |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Cardinals UNDER 7 It will only be 62 degrees in St. Louis this afternoon and the forecast is calling for 10 MPH winds blowing in from left. Runs will be hard to come by for both offenses against these two underrated starting pitchers in Game 1 of this series. Jose Quintana is 6-7 with a 2.82 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals this season and has been a great comeback story. Quintana has been at his best at home, going 4-4 with a 2.24 ERA in 17 home starts. He is also 1-1 with a 0.61 ERA in his last three starts. Quintana owns the Phillies with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts against them, including a 0.76 ERA in his last four starts against them while allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings. Zack Wheeler is 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last three starts. Wheeler also owns the Cardinals, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.41 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 22 innings. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last eight games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 7 runs or fewer in all five meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians -109 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
15* Rays/Guardians AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -109 The Cleveland Guardians are the hottest team in baseball heading into the postseason. They have gone 22-5 in their last 27 games overall. They will carry that momentum into Game 1 of this series with the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 4-12 in their last 16 games overall and playing their worst baseball of the season coming in. Ace Shane Bieber is 13-8 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts this season. Bieber is also 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in six career starts against the Rays. Shane McClanahan lost his form in the second half of the season. He is 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 innings in 14 innings with only 7 K's. He allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 innings in his lone start against Cleveland this season on July 31st. Roll with the Guardians Friday. |
|||||||
10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -3 | 12-9 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Colts/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Denver -3 The Indianapolis Colts are in a world of hurt this season. They are 1-2-1 and arguably should be 0-4. They tied the Texans in Week 1 only after coming back from a 20-3 deficit in the 4th quarter. The Texans may be the worst team in the NFL. They lost to the Jaguars 24-0 in Week 2. The abberration was the 20-17 win over Chiefs in which they were held to 259 yards. And last week they lost 24-17 at home to the lowly Titans. Now it gets worse for the Colts. They could be without their best offensive player in RB Jonathan Taylor, who injured his ankle late in the loss to the Titans. It would be hard to see him coming back on a short week and being anywhere near 100%. They also lost their best defensive player in LB Shaq Leonard to a concussion and he will miss this game. I don't trust Matt Ryan at all as he has already fumbled eight times this season and the Colts have committed nine turnovers in four games. The Broncos have injury concerns of their own, but not as significant as the Colts in terms of key players. I also think the Broncos' problems this season have been overblown. They are 2-2 and should be 3-1 as they outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards in the opener, but fumbled at the goal line twice in a 17-16 loss. They came back and beat the Texans and 49ers, and that win over the 49ers looks really good now. They lost to a desperate Raiders team last week that was 0-3 and simply wanted it more than they did. Look for the Broncos to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week. I think the Broncos have more potential on offense as Russell Wilson and his weapons get more comfortable with each other moving forward. They will eventually compliment their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season in allowing just 17.0 points per game, 285 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. They rank 5th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 7th in yards per play. Matt Ryan has struggled tremendously and still hasn't seen a defense this good yet. Denver is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games following a division loss. Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Broncos Thursday. |
|||||||
10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
20* SMU/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU +3 The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 this season but I've been very impressed with them. After beating North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16 to open the season, they lost a pair of one-score games to Maryland and TCU, two Power 5 opponents. Those also happen to be two of the most improved teams in the country. SMU lost 27-34 at Maryland and should have won that game. They gained 520 yards on the Terrapins and outgained them by 79 yards. That's the same Maryland team that almost beat Michigan on the road, and that came back to crush Michigan State 27-13 at home. SMU also lost 34-42 at home to TCU as a 2.5-point underdog. The Mustangs gained 476 yards on the Horned Frogs and were only outgained by 11 yards. That's the same TCU team that is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and coming off a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog. UCF has played a much softer schedule and is 3-1 SU despite being favored in all four games. They beat South Carolina State 56-10 before losing to Louisville 14-20 as a 5.5-point favorite. THey beat FAU 40-14 on the road before topping Georgia Tech 27-10 at home. But that win over awful Georgia Tech was very misleading. The Knights actually gave up 452 yards to the Yellow Jackets and were outgained by 119 yards. They allowed 314 passing yards to what is a poor GT passing offense. SMU crushed UCF 55-28 last season as a 7-point home favorite. They had 36 first downs compared to just 15 for UCF and outgained them 631 to 333, or by 298 total yards. Now the Mustangs come back as a 3-point underdog a year later. Their offense is as potent as it was last year, and their defense is better than it was expected to be as well. SMU is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.8 yards per play, averaging 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow. SMU is allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.2 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages. Those are elite numbers compared to UCF, which is at 6.1 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 6.1 per play on defense, and 5.0 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.1 yards per play on offense. UCF is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 conference games. Bet SMU Wednesday. |
|||||||
10-05-22 | Cubs -117 v. Reds | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -117 The Chicago Cubs are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall. But they have lost the first two games of this series at Cincinnati, and I expect them to come back motivated to win the final game of the season and avoid the sweep. They should be much bigger favorites when you consider how big their advantage is on the mound. The Reds are just 6-19 in their last 25 games overall. I'll gladly fade them and Graham Ashcraft, who is 5-5 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in his last three. Ashcraft has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with an 11.92 ERA and 2.295 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 15 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in three starts against them in 2022 alone. I'll gladly back Adrian Sampson, who is 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Sampson has done his best work on the road, going 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 10 starts away from home. He has owned the Reds, going 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in five career starts against them. He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati this season. Cincinnati is 4-19 after batting .200 or worse over a five-game span this season. Bet the Cubs Wednesday. |
|||||||
10-05-22 | Tigers +180 v. Mariners | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +180 The Seattle Mariners are now locked into their seed in the American League and will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays. They won't care about winning this game. Look for them to rest their starters, and they are throwing a gas can of a starting pitcher in Marco Gonzalez tonight. I'll gladly fade Gonzalez, who is 10-15 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in his last three. Gonzalez is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers, allowing 10 earned runs in 16 innings. The Tigers have quietly gone 11-4 in their last 15 games overall with with eight wins as underdogs. They should not be this big of dogs to the Mariners given the situation. I also like what I've seen from Detroit starter Tyler Alexander of late. He is 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 innings. Take the Tigers Wednesday. |
|||||||
10-05-22 | Angels -1.5 v. A's | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-110) The Los Angeles Angels are 7-2 in their last nine games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall. Look for them to cap off their season with a blowout victory over the Oakland A's due to their advantage on the mound and at the plate. The A's have scored 2 runs or fewer in five of their last seven games overall. Ace Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for the Angels. He is 15-8 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 5-0 with a minuscule 0.86 ERA in his last six starts while allowing only 4 earned runs in 42 innings. Ohtani is 4-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.930 WHIP nine career starts against Oakland, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two while pitching 14 shutout innings. I'll gladly fade Ken Waldichuk and the A's. Waldichuk is 1-2 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in six starts this season. Oakland is 4-17 in its last 21 home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save. The A's are 8-24 in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Wednesday. |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Giants +130 v. Padres | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +130 The San Diego Padres just clinched a playoff spot yesterday. I'll gladly fade them here in this letdown spot as they are more concerned with resting up for the postseason in these final two games now. They won't care at all about winning this game tonight. I'll also gladly back the Giants, who have quietly gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and are trying to win games down the stretch. The Giants also have the advantage on the mound with Carlos Rodon, who is 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 31 starts this season. I'll gladly fade Sean Manaea, who is the biggest weak link in this San Diego rotation. Manaea is 7-9 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Giants this season and has no business being this heavy of a favorite today. Rodon's teams are an impressive 21-13 (+17.1 Units) as a dog of +125 to +175 in his career. Roll with the Giants Tuesday. |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Brewers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -110 The Milwaukee Brewers were just officially eliminated from the playoffs on Monday. I don't expect them to show up at all today. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a big advantage on the mound, and with the motivational factor in their favor, this is one of my favorite bets of the season. Zac Gallen has pitched well enough to win the Cy Young this season. He is 12-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in 30 starts and one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Gallen has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. He fired 7 shutout innings in a 5-1 victory over the Brewers in his lone start against them this season. Eric Lauer is 10-7 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 28 starts this season for the Brewers. Lauer is 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Gallen has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 14 consecutive starts, and zero earned runs in 7 of those. Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday. |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Tigers +150 v. Mariners | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +150 (Game 1) The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with eight wins as underdogs. The Seattle Mariners have already clinched a playoff spot, and they really don't have much to play for in this series. They should not be this big of a favorite over a hot team like Detroit as a result. I cashed the Tigers +220 yesterday, and I'm back on them today in Game 1 of this double-header with the pitching matchup even more in their favor. Eduardo Rodriquez has a 4.02 ERA in 16 starts this season, and he's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. Rodriquez also has a 4.02 ERA in 10 career starts against Seattle. Chris Flexen lost his starting job at 7-9 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 21 starts this season, and 4-4 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in nine home starts. Flexen is just making a spot start for the Mariners as they try to keep their rotation fresh for the playoffs. That clearly shows they don't care about winning these games today. Seattle is a woeful 19-22 (-21.3 Units) as a home favorite of -150 or higher over the last two seasons. Take the Tigers in Game 1 of this double-header Tuesday. |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Tigers +220 v. Mariners | 4-3 | Win | 220 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +220 The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall with seven wins as underdogs. The Seattle Mariners have already clinched a playoff spot, and they really don't have much to play for in this series. They should not be this big of a favorite over a hot team like Detroit as a result. Bryan Gardia is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in three starts this season despite facing three playoff teams in the Guardians, Rays and Blue Jays. I think he'll hold his own against the Mariners as well. George Kirby has allowed 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Texas and Oakland. Seattle is a woeful 8-10 (-11.8 Units) as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight during Game 1 of a series. Detroit is 8-1 in its last nine games overall. Take the Tigers Monday. |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 91 h 37 m | Show |
20* Rams/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on San Francisco PK The San Francisco 49ers should be 3-0. Instead, they are 1-2 and we are now getting value with them as basically a pick 'em at home against the Los Angeles Rams. We'll take advantage and back the 49ers as they are the better team, more motivated team. The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards in Week 1 but lost. They outgained the Seahawks by 157 yards in Week 2 and won 27-7. And last week they outgained the Broncos by 6 yards on the road but lost, giving up a last-minute TD drive to fall 11-10. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the 49ers now. The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, giving up just 3.9 yards per play. They rank 2nd in total defense, allowing just 227.0 yards per game. I would argue they have the best defense in the NFL, and I love backing elite defensive teams because they are the most trustworthy. Of course Jimmy G has been rusty in his first 1.5 games after taking over for Trey Lance. But the 49ers have a great running game they can rely on until he finds his rhythm. I expect Jimmy G to be much sharper this week at home against the Rams with extra time to get ready for this Monday Night tilt. The Rams just aren't the team they were last year when they won the Super Bowl. They lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason, and have lost a couple more to injury now. The 49ers will own them up front defensively, which is where this game will be won. Matthew Stafford struggles against teams that can get pressure without blitzing, just like he did against the Bills in Week 1 when they lost 31-10. The Rams nearly lost to the Falcons at home in Week 2, winning 31-27 as 10.5-point favorites. And last week they played one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and only won 20-12. Their offense isn't sharp, ranking just 25th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game. Their defense could be without three of their top four cornerbacks, and they are weak at linebacker. The Rams lost a lot in the offseason, and have lost even more to injury thus far in 2022. The 49ers own the Rams, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The lone loss? A 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game last year. So they will be out for revenge from that defeat that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl. They will also be pissed off for how they lost to the Broncos last week. Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to continue their dominance of the Rams. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The 49ers are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 Monday Night Football games. The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two or more consecutive wins. San Francisco is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. Roll with the 49ers Monday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Cardinals v. Panthers -120 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -120 | 111 h 57 m | Show |
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120 The Arizona Cardinals are broken. They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3. They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs. The Raiders are 0-3 on the season. They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win. And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite. Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals. DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense. He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense. The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages. Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0. They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1. They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play. And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout. The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season. They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense. This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK. The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits! That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season. The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Panthers Sunday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 7.5 The Toronto Blue Jays can cover this total on their own Sunday. They won 9-0 in Game 1 and 10-0 in Game 2 against the Boston Red Sox. Look for them to crush Michael Wacha in this one as well. Wacha allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles. Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings. I don't expect the Red Sox to get shut out again today, so they will help contribute to this total as well. The OVER is 7-1 in Red Sox last eight games following a loss. The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five road games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 10-4-1 in Blue Jays last 15 games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 120 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for playoff positioning. They have crushed the Red Sox 9-0 and 10-0 in the first two games of this series, respectively. It should be more of the same today due to their advantage on the mound and the Red Sox lack of motivation, which has them just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. Kevin Gausman is 12-10 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 30 starts this season. I don't expect him to fully shut down the Red Sox, but I do expect him to be good enough to help the Blue Jays win this game by two runs or more. Gausman is 3-0 with a 2.32 ERA in his last five starts against Boston, allowing just 8 earned runs in 31 innings. All five starts have come this season. Michael Wacha allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles. Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings. Boston is 1-10 after scoring one run or fewer in a division loss this season and losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot. The Red Sox are 8-20 in their last 28 road games. Toronto is 39-18 in its last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 45-17 in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings. Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 112 h 24 m | Show |
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Cowboys -3 Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys. He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat. He beat the Bengals in Week 2. And he just beat the Giants on the road in Week 3. Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak. The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They are allowing just 17.3 points per game and 312.3 yards per game through three games. Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL. The Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 times last week and lead the league in sacks. That's bad news for Carson Wentz and the Commanders. Wentz was sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles in their 24-8 home loss. The Commanders managed just 50 total yards in the first three quarters of that game. They couldn't do anything until garbage time. Wentz is the least trust-worthy QB in the entire NFL in my opinion. He's right up there with Jameis Winston, except a lot less talented. And Wentz almost has no chance playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. This Washington defense isn't any good, either. The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game, 402.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. They rank 27th in total defense and 28th in yards per play on defense. There's just not a lot to like about this Commanders team. This line suggests that these are almost even teams when you factor in home-field advantage, and I just don't see it that way. The Cowboys have all the advantages in this game, especially at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, which is most important. Wentz will be under duress all game and is sure to make another bonehead mistake or two, which is something he just has a knack for doing. The Cowboys own this division, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East opponents, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven against division foes. Dallas is 18-7 ATS In its last 25 games overall. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas. Bet the Cowboys Sunday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Jaguars +7 v. Eagles | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -130 | 108 h 0 m | Show |
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-130) The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers don't want to accept it. Here we are again catching a touchdown with the Jaguars in Week 4 after catching a touchdown with them against the Chargers last week. That's because the consensus is that everyone knows the Eagles are for real, but that's not the consensus with the Jaguars. Jacksonville could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to Washington on the road in the first game under Doug Pederson. They have been dominant in both games since, beating the Colts 24-0 at home and the Chargers 38-10 on the road despite being underdogs in both games. They covered the spread by a combined 61.5 points in those two games. Trevor Lawrence has made that leap in Year 2 that you hope to see from 1st-round quarterbacks. Pederson is a big reason why. Remember, he won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and now he'll have his team extra amped up to face his former squad after a not so pleasant exit. Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for 772 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games. James Robinson and Travis Etienne have combined for 344 rushing yards in three games behind a vastly improved offensive line. Pederson is working his magic with this offense. Defensively, the Jaguars have elite talent that is starting to finally live up to their potential this season. They are allowing just 12.7 points per game, 306.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, ranking 12th in total defense. They have great team speed defensively, which makes them match up as well with the Eagles' speed as anyone has yet this season. I think the Eagles are feeling 'fat and happy' after their 3-0 start, while the Jaguars are the more more motivated team to win one for their head coach this week. Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play, after averaging 400 yards per game or more offensively in their last three games are 52-12 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Jaguars Sunday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans +5.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +5.5 The Los Angeles Chargers are getting treated like the talented team they were coming into the season rather than the injury-ravaged team they are currently. No team has lost more star players to injury than the Chargers, and they could be without even more this week against the Houston Texans. I took advantage and cashed in the Jaguars in a 38-10 victory over the Chargers as 7-point underdogs last week. And I'll gladly fade the Chargers again this week. They lost their best offensive lineman in T Slater to a torn bicep last week. They lost LB Bosa to a groin injury, and he'll be out this week. They were already without WR Keenan Allen, C Linsley and CB Jackson, and all three are questionable this week. As is QB Justin Herbert, who is playing through torn rib cartilage and isn't as effective. The Texans have quietly gone 2-0-1 ATS this season and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall dating back to last season. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are considered the worst team in the NFL, but they are competitive and will continue to battle. All three of their games have been decided by one score this season. If the Chargers win, they're going to have a hard time covering this inflated number in the process. I think RB Dameon Pierce and this Houston rushing attack will have success against this soft Chargers run defense. The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and they have faced two poor rushing teams in the Raiders and Chiefs. They gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last week. Houston has been good against the pass, allowing 208 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt, so they match up well with the Chargers and their pass-heavy attack. Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in a game involving two teams that are both outrushed by 40-plus yards per game, after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. AFC opponents. Take the Texans Sunday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Vikings -140 v. Saints | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 104 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Vikings/Saints NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota ML -140 The New Orleans Saints looked like a sleeper coming into the season to win the NFC South. Unfortunately, injuries have not gone their way in the early going. I faded them last week with the Panthers, and I'm fading them again this week with the Vikings for a number of the same reasons. QB Jameis Winston has a broken back, and he has been the catalyst as to why the Saints have turned the ball over 8 times the last two weeks in losing to the Bucs and Panthers while averaging just 12 points per game. Alvin Kamara is banged up and questionable, and two of the top receivers are questionable in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry after both left the game against Panthers last week with foot injuries. All told, the Saints have 23 players on the injury report. The Vikings have remained remarkably healthy. Dalvin Cook is on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but is likely to play as he has played through this injury before. The drop off to backup Mattison is minimal as we've seen before. The Vikings only have nine players on the injury report with the only significant ones being Cook and Z'Darius Smith, who are both questionable. They are remarkably healthy. The Vikings look like one of the best teams in the NFC. They beat the Packers 23-7 in the opener. I know they lost 7-24 to the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings had every chance to get back in that game in the second half but kept failing in the red zone. And the Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC. They came back with a 28-24 win over Detroit last week. I trust the healthy Vikings and Kirk Cousins more than Jameis Winston and this banged up Saints squad. Winston is like Carson Wentz in that he can't be trusted to hold onto the football. New Orleans is a mash unit right now. Bet the Vikings Sunday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Georgia Tech +23 v. Pittsburgh | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 69 h 18 m | Show | |
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +23 It's time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets after a 1-3 start against a brutal schedule and some misleading results mixed in. The three losses have come to Clemson, Ole Miss and UCF as the Yellow Jackets have played the 8th-toughest schedule in the country. They were in a dog fight with Clemson in the opener in what was a 14-10 game late in the 3rd quarter before the Tigers scored 27 unanswered points to finish, including two touchdowns in the final six minutes. They were only outgained by 141 yards by the Tigers. Last week, Georgia Tech lost 27-10 at UCF despite outgaining the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards. They arguably should have pulled the outright upset as 21-point dogs, but lost by 17. These misleading finals and difficult schedule have the Yellow Jackets undervalued. I was looking to fade Pitt coming into the season with all they lost in the offseason. The Panthers were overvalued after winning the ACC last year. They lost QB Kenny Pickett and star receiver Jordan Addison. Those players have proven to be irreplaceable as Kedon Slovis is a big downgrade at QB. Pitt is 3-1 but should be 2-2. They lost to Tennessee in OT, and they beat WVU by 7 only after a fluky pick-6 to go ahead in the final minutes. The other two wins came against overmatched Western Michigan and Rhode Island teams. The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS this season and have proven to be good fade material, and I expect them to continue to be good fade material in this spot this week. Georgia Tech's numbers are pretty good. They average 0.1 yards per play less on offense than their opponents give up on average (5.1 to 5.2), and they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average (5.5 to 6.1). Pitt is averaging only 0.1 yards per play more on offense than their opponents give up on average, and holding opponents to 0.8 yards per play less than their season average. Plays on road teams (Georgia Tech) - off one or more consecutive unders, a poor offensive team that is scoring 17 or fewer points per game are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. They only beat Rhode Island by 21 as 34.5-point favorites in their last home games. The Yellow Jackets can easily stay within 21 as well. Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | LSU -8.5 v. Auburn | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 32 m | Show | |
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5 It's no surprise that the LSU Tigers are improving rapidly as the season goes on under first-head head coach Brian Kelly, who is one of the best in the country. The 23-24 loss to Florida State in the opener doesn't look that bad now when we've seen what the Seminoles have done since. LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since with a 65-17 win over Southern, a 31-16 win over a very good Mississippi State team outright as underdogs, and a 38-0 win over New Mexico as 31-point favorites. The injuries have gone LSU's way leading into this game. QB Jayden Daniels left in the 3rd quarter with a lower back injury against New Mexico. He didn't return despite being cleared, and it was more for precautionary reasons with the game already in hand. He should be playing this week. Starting nickel Jay Ward missed last game but returned to practice this week. RB Armoni Goodwin is day-to-day but likely to play as well. Edge rusher BJ Ojulari was held out against the Lobos as a precaution. While LSU is a team I want shares of moving forward, I want to sell all my Auburn stock. Brian Harsin is on the hot seat and I'm be surprised if he survives the season after going 6-7 year. The Tigers should be 2-2 as they were gifted a win last week by Missouri. Missouri missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation, then fumbled going into the end zone for the game winning score in OT. Auburn did everything in their power to give Missouri the game. That came after an ugly 12-41 home loss to Penn State. LSU is better than Penn State, and I think it will be a similar blowout. Auburn barely beat San Jose State 24-16 the week prior as 24-point favorites, and failed to cover against Mercer in a 42-16 win as 30-point favorites in the opener. Auburn is now 0-4 ATS this season and about to fall to 0-5 ATS this week. Making matters worse for Auburn is that they are going to be without starting QB TJ Finley this week. Backup Zach Calzada is out with injury as well, and third-string freshman Robby Ashford has not been good. He has completed just 27-of-47 passes for 372 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while playing in parts of all four games. Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points. Plays on road teams (LSU) - allowing 200 or fewer total yards per game in their last two games, with an experienced QB vs. an opponent with an inexperienced QB are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1992. Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. Bet LSU Saturday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Troy +5.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show |
25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Troy +5.5 I was high on Troy coming into the season and they have delivered. The Trojans returned 18 starters this season. They opened with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss as 21.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 87 yards. Ole Miss appears to be one of the best teams in the country. They followed it up with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M. They should be 3-1, losing 32-28 at Appalachian State on a fluke hail mary on the final play of the game as 14-point underdogs. App State is the king of the Sun Belt, so the fact that they should have beaten them says all you need to know. And had they beaten them, they certainly would not be 5.5-point underdogs this week. I was impressed with how Troy got back up off the mat and upset Marshall 16-7 as 3.5-point underdogs last week. That's the same Marshall team that had upset Notre Dame on the road earlier this season. The Trojans dominated more than the final score would suggest, too. They outgained Marshall 421 to 174, or by 247 total yards and should have won by more even. Troy has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt and a much improved offense this season led by Gunnar Watson, who is averaging 312 passing yards per game and completing 66.4% of his passes despite the tough competition. He and the Trojans have done this against the 43rd-ranked schedule in the country. You know who hasn't played a tough schedule? That's Western Kentucky. They have played the 175th-ranked schedule in the country. They are getting too much respect for their 3-1 start with the three wins coming against Hawaii, FIU and Austin Peay. FIU and Hawaii may be the two worst teams in FBS, and Austin Peay is one of the worst teams in FCS. They did play Indiana tough in their lone loss, but Indiana isn't very good this year, either. I was down on Western Kentucky coming into the season because they only returned 11 starters and lost all of their top playmakers from last season. They lost QB Bailey Zappe and his 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, plus his top two receivers in Sterns and Tinsley who combined for 3,304 yards and 31 touchdowns last year. The offensive numbers are gaudy again this season, but that's more due to the lack of competition. It's time to 'sell high' on this WKU team off that 73-0 win over FIU. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WKU) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. Sun Belt foes. I'll gladly take Sun Belt over C-USA in this matchup as I strongly believe the Trojans are the better, more complete team. Bet Troy Saturday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas OVER 67.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 65 h 17 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/North Texas OVER 67.5 Expect some offensive fireworks between Florida Atlantic and North Texas Saturday and little defense being played. These are two of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and that's going to help us cash this OVER 67.5 ticket. North Texas is scoring 32.2 points per game, averaging 475 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season while running 74 plays per game. FAU is scoring 32.6 points per game, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while running 73 plays per game. Both defenses can be had, especially North Texas. The Mean Green are allowing 38.0 points per game, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while defending 74 plays per game. The Owls are allowing 26.2 points per game, 402 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play and 68 plays per game against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play, so they have a below average defense and haven't faced many good offenses. They even got to play Purdue last week without their starting QB. North Texas is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games. The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Mean Green last six games following a loss. Take the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 65 h 57 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas +3 Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country. He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program. He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year. The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset. They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season. Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2. The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1. They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play. In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs. That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season. In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs. That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season. They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke last week, a Blue Devils team that was 3-0 coming into that game. Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 48.5 points per game, 472.5 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play. They are also holding opponents to 400 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.3 yards per play. Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry. They are also completing 71.3% of their passes and efficient in the passing game. Despite the 4-0 start against solid competition, Kansas is unranked. I think the Jayhawks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder again this week because of it. They won't have a letdown because they want that respect and to avenge a blowout loss at Iowa State last year. This is an Iowa State team that isn't nearly as talented as they were last season. The Cyclones are 3-1 but the three wins came against three terrible teams in SE Missouri State, Iowa and Ohio. They met their match last week with a 24-31 home loss to Baylor. And now this will be their toughest road test of the season against a Kansas team that fans are excited about, selling out last week against Duke. It will be another sellout Saturday against the Cyclones. Iowa State is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage above 75% over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and covering by 18.1 points per game. I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now. Bet Kansas Saturday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Northwestern +26.5 v. Penn State | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 4 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +26.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats. After opening the season with a 31-28 upset win as 10.5-point dogs to Nebraska in the opener, the Wildcats have promptly gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all as favorites. Now they are back in their preferred underdog role, which is where Pat Fitzgerald always seems to get the most out of his teams. Turnover luck has not been on the Wildcats' side as they have already committed 10 turnovers in four games, which is the biggest reason for their struggles. They have moved the football just fine with an improved offense that is putting up 447.3 yards per game this season. They are actually outgaining opponents by 55 yards per game despite the 1-3 record. They will make enough plays on offense to stay within this inflated number against Penn State. Penn State struggled last week in a 33-14 win over Central Michigan as 28-point favorites. And it's worth noting the Chippewas were -4 in turnovers and still only lost by 19. That makes me believe Northwestern can stay within this number if Central Michigan did. I also think Penn State could be looking ahead to their showdown with Michigan. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nittany Lions after a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season. Turnover luck has been on their side as they are +8 in turnovers through four games. Northwestern is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after a loss by 3 points or less. Pat Fitzgerald is 34-21 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Northwestern. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with Northwestern Saturday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -143 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -143 The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for wild card positioning and home-field advantage. They blasted the Red Sox 9-0 yesterday and it should be more of the same today due to their massive advantage on the mound. Ross Stripling is 8-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 23 starts this season for the Blue Jays. He is 2-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 11 home starts as well. Stripling is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox this season, allowing just 6 earned runs in 20 innings. Bryan Bello is 2-6 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Red Sox, including 1-3 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.767 WHIP in five road starts. Bello is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts against the Blue Jays this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 innings. Boston is 3-23 in their last 26 games when playing against a good team that wins between 54% and 62% of their games. The Red Sox are 0-8 in Bello's eight starts vs. a team with a winning record this season, losing by 2.9 runs per game. Bet the Blue Jays Saturday. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Michigan -10.5 v. Iowa | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 61 h 27 m | Show |
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5 Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game last year. I don't see anything changing in the rematch this year. Michigan looks as good if not better than last year when they made the four-team playoff, and Iowa looks worse to this point. After crushing Colorado State by 44, Hawaii by 46 and UConn by 59, Michigan finally got tested last week in a 34-27 win over Maryland as 17-point favorites. I was happy to see Michigan get tested, and that will serve them well moving forward. That's a vastly improved Maryland team that is going to give a lot of people trouble in the Big Ten this season. Iowa's offense is not going to give Michigan any trouble. The Hawkeyes are averaging just 17.0 points per game, 232.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season despite playing a pretty soft schedule of South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers. Their 27-10 win over Rutgers last week was very misleading as they scored two defensive touchdowns and were outgained by 84 yards by the Scarlet Knights. That misleading score is providing us with some line value on Michigan this week. Spencer Petras is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country. He is completing just 51.1% of his passes for 524 yards and 5.6 per attempt with only one touchdown and two interceptions in four games. Usually Iowa can rely on its running game amidst poor QB play, but that's not the case this season. They have one of the worst offensive lines of the Kirk Ferentz era. The Hawkeyes are averaging just 102 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season. I just don't see how Iowa is going to be able to score enough points to stay within this number. Their only hope is to get defensive and special teams touchdowns, but that's not going to happen. Michigan has been mistake-free for the most part committing only two turnovers in four games. Michigan's offense is even more potent this year with the switch to J.J. McCarthy at QB. He is completing 80% of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while taking over for Cade McNamara. Iowa has some injuries that are also contributing to its poor start this season. Three of the top four receivers on the depth chart are out in Johnson, Vines and Ritter. Two starters are out on defense in LB Jestin Jacobs and CB Jermari Harris as well. Michigan is very healthy with only McNamara out, but that's addition by subtraction. LB Hill-Green and LG Trevor Keegan are both questionable. Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a win against a conference rival are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Kirk Ferentz is 0-7 ATS in home games after leading in the last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa. Take Michigan Saturday. |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA UNDER 66 | Top | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 33 m | Show |
20* Washington/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 66 This is a great time to 'buy low' on the UNDER between UCLA and Washington Friday night. Both teams are 4-0 and both have put up gaudy numbers on offense against suspect competition defensively. That has inflated this total to the point where there's value with the UNDER. Washington is scoring 44.0 points per game and putting up 530.8 yards per game this season. But they have played four terrible defenses in Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State and Stanford. UCLA is averaging 41.8 points per game and 508.3 yards per game, but those numbers have also come against four terrible defenses in Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama and Colorado. These two offenses will finally meet some resistance against the best defenses they will have faced all season, and it's not even close. UCLA is allowing just 18.0 points per game, 301.0 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season. Washington is allowing just 19.0 points per game, 302.0 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. And that has come against three decent offenses in Michigan State, Stanford and Kent State. These teams met last season with UCLA beating Washington 24-17 for just 41 combined points and a 55-point total. This total is now 11 points higher than last year. I get that Washington is a better offensive team under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, but this is too big of an adjustment. Both teams rely heavily on the run, which is going to keep the clock moving. The Bruins average 38 attempts and 220 yards per game, while the Huskies average 36 attempts for 162 yards per game. Both teams are elite at stopping the run. The Huskies are allowing just 89 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, while the Bruins are giving up 90 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry. Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games against an opponent that has two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored are 62-27 (69.7%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 road games. The UNDER is 17-7 in Bruins last 24 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 116 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+116) The Toronto Blue Jays should not be underdogs on the Run Line to the Boston Red Sox tonight. They have a massive advantage on the mound in this one that should have them winning this game by two runs or more with ease. Alek Manoah is 15-7 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 30 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his las three. Manoah has never lost to the Red Sox, going 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in five career starts against them. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 20 innings in three starts against Boston in 2022 alone. Nick Pivetta is 10-11 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in his last three. Pivetta is also 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in 10 career starts against Toronto. He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in six of his last nine starts against the Blue Jays. Boston is 3-22 when playing against a good team that wins 54% to 62% of their games in the second half of the season this season and losing by 2.1 runs per game in this spot. The Red Sox are 0-8 in their last eight games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or better. Toronto is 14-3 in its last 17 games following an off day. The Blue Jays are 17-4 in the last 21 meetings. Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday. |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 3 m | Show |
20* Tulane/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5 This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars. They have played a very tough schedule and have gotten through it at 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS. They lost to Texas Tech and Kansas, beat UTSA which won 12 games last year, and also beat an improved Rice team that upset Louisiana the previous week. Remember, Houston went 12-2 last year and returned 13 starters this season including QB Clayton Tune and stud receiver Tank Dell. This isn't the start they wanted, but they realize they have everything ahead of them in the American Athletic. Now they will be pumped for their conference opener Friday night as they host Tulane. While Houston (36th) has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, Tulane (166th) has played one of the weakest. The result has been a 3-1 start that featured an upset win at Kansas State. That win had them overvalued last week, and I took advantage and backed Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles beat the Green Wave outright as 13-point underdogs. And I'll gladly fade Tulane again as I still believe them to be overvalued from that K-State win. Remember, Tulane went 2-10 last year. No question the Green Wave are improved this season, but they should not be basically a PK on the road at Houston. The Cougars have owned the Green Wave each of the last two seasons. They won 49-31 at home in 2020 and 40-22 on the road in 2021. Tune has thrown for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns in those two victories and figures to light them up again. This game may be closer than the last two years, but Houston should still get it done by a FG or more. The Green Wave are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Friday games. The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Cougars are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Tulane is 2-7 ATS in its last nine trips to Houston. Roll with Houston Friday. |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 7 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Mariners OVER 7 This total has been set too low for these two starting pitchers. Jon Gray has good numbers this season, but he hasn't been able to figure out the Mariners. Gray is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts against the Mariners in 2022, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings. Marco Gonzalez is the worst starter in Seattle's rotation. He is 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 30 starts, including 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings to the Royals and Angels. This will already be the 6th start by Gonzalez against the Rangers in 2022 alone, so they are clearly familiar with him. He is 1-2 with a 5.16 ERA in five starts against them this season, allowing 21 runs, 17 earned, in 29 2/3 innings. He has allowed 5 earned runs in two of his last three starts against them. The OVER is 13-2-2 in Mariners last 17 games during Game 3 of a series. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -180 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 66 h 14 m | Show |
20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals ML -180 I don't normally take favorites on the money line of -3.5 or higher, but I'm confident the Bengals are going to win this game. I missed the early number on the Bengals and I could see this going higher. So I'm willing to lay the money line as of Monday night knowing that it is likely to go higher. The spot couldn't be worse for the Dolphins. They are coming off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills in one of the most misleading box scores you will ever see. They were outgained 212 to 497 by the Bills but somehow won. They had just 39 plays on offense compared to 90 plays for Buffalo. Their defense was on the field for over 40 of the 60 minutes. That's a Buffalo team that was without 14 starters at one point in that game as well. It's safe to say this Miami defense is gassed, and there will be a carryover effect here on this short week as they travel to face the Bengals. There may not be a worse spot for any team the rest of the season in terms of rest. Now the Dolphins have to try and stop one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals on this short week. The Dolphins are not sitting well in the injury department, either. QB Tagovailoa has a back injury, WR Waddle has a groin injury, WR Wilson has a rib injury, T Little has a finger injury and T Armstead has a toe injury and all five are questionable on offense. DT Davis has a knee injury, DT Sieler has a hand injury, CB Kohou has an ankle injury, S Jones has a chest injury, CB Howard has a groin injury, and S Holland has a neck injury and all are questionable. This is quickly becoming one of the worst injury situations in the NFL. So it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS to start the season, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS but could easily be 3-0 instead. In Week 1 they lost in OT to the Steelers despite outgaining them by 165 yards. They lost due to committing five turnovers. They lost 17-20 at Dallas in Week 2, but that's a Dallas team that is better than they get credit for even without Dak Prescott. Last week, the Bengals took out their frustration with a 27-12 road win over the New York Jets. Joe Burrow played with the fire that he played with when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. And that spark will still be there this week as their backs are against the wall after this 1-2 start. And they'll have no problem getting up for the unbeaten Dolphins, who are in a letdown spot off a win against their biggest division rivals in the Bills. The Dolphins are feeling 'fat and happy' right now and won't be nearly as motivated as they were to beat Buffalo. While Burrow gets a lot of the credit, it's the defense that was really responsible for the run to the Super Bowl last year. This is arguably the most underrated defense in the NFL. They held the Raiders to 19 points, the Titans to 16 points, the Chiefs to 24 points and the Rams to 23 points in their four playoff games last year. They have picked up where they left off, allowing 18.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through three games this season. The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Home teams have such an advantage already on these Thursday night games due to the short week, but this advantage is even more in Cincinnati's favor now with Miami's defense defending 90 plays against the Bills last week. The Bengals had a stress-free blowout win over the Jets and are the fresher team. Take the Bengals on the Money Line Thursday. |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU UNDER 62 | Top | 26-38 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 4 m | Show |
20* Utah State/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 62 The Utah State Aggies and BYU Cougars play in a rivalry game Thursday night in Provo. I look for points to be at a premium in this rivalry game. BYU will get their points, but I don't think Utah State will do their part to score enough to get to 62 combined points in this one. Utah State is way down compared to last season offensively. The Aggies lost all of their top playmakers from last year's team. It hasn't gone nearly as smoothly for QB Logan Bonner as it did last year. The Aggies are only averaging 15.5 points, 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season. This despite playing UConn, FCS Weber State and UNLV, which are three terrible defenses. But the Aggies have held their own defensively, allowing just 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 5.9 yards per play. Like I said, BYU will get their points, but I expect them to shut down Utah State. The Cougars have a ton of talent on defense with all 11 starters back from last year. They are holding teams to just 321.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, holding teams 66 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages to this point. These teams met last year with BYU winning 34-20 for just 54 combined points and a 65.5-point total. That was with an elite Utah State offense last year. They have only adjusted this total down 3.5 points from last year, and that's not enough for how down Utah State's offense is. The UNDER is 5-0 in Aggies last five games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six non-conference games. The UNDER is 7-1 in Cougars last eight Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The UNDER is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games following an ATS loss. These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9 After combining for 22 runs in Game 1 of this series, the Orioles and Red Sox came back for 22 more runs in Game 2 last night. It should be more of the same in Game 3 with both bullpens absolutely taxed right now, and both lineups seeing the ball well. Rich Hill is 7-7 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in 10 home starts. Hill allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings to the Orioles in his lone home start against them this season. Dean Kremer has good numbers this season, but he has not been able to figure out Boston. Kremer has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in four career starts against them. The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 4-0 in Orioles last four games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Red Sox last six games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Red SOx last four home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
09-28-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Yankees/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5 The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 14 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch to clinch the AL East. They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 14 games, making for an 11-3 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total. No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now. They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 29 games overall. These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers. The Yankees could cover this total on their own off Mitch White, sho is 0-6 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last three. Those have come against the Rays, Orioles and Cubs, so it's not like he is facing elite competition. Gerrit Cole has struggled of late with a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 7 homers in 17 innings. Cole has not enjoyed facing the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA in his last four starts against them while allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 1/3 innings. The OVER is 27-8-1 in Yankees last 36 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
09-28-22 | Royals v. Tigers -122 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Tigers -122 The Detroit Tigers are coming on strong to finish the season. They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall. They should stay hot and pick up another win against the Kansas City Royals tonight due to their massive advantage on the mound. Matt Manning is 2-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Manning has been at his best at home, going 1-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in seven home starts. He has never lost to the Royals, going 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in three career starts against them. Daniel Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in his last three. Lynch is also 1-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in five career starts against the Tigers. He has allowed 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Detroit in 2022. Kansas City is 9-28 vs. starting pitchers that allow 0.5 or fewer homers per start this season. The Royals are 16-35 in their last 51 road games. Bet the Tigers Wednesday. |
|||||||
09-27-22 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -1.5 (+110) The New York Mets are coming up clutch down the stretch in trying to win the NL East. They have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by two runs or more. I'm shocked we are getting them as underdogs tonight on the Run Line against the lowly Miami Marlins. The Mets have the advantage on the mound tonight with Carlos Carrasco over Pablo Lopez, and they certainly have the advantage at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 3.6 for the Marlins this season. Carrasco is 9-2 with a 3.21 ERA in 15 home starts this season. Carrasco has never lost to the Marlins, going 5-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in nine career starts against them. Pablo Lopez has decent numbers this season at 9-10 with a 3.93 ERA in 30 starts. However, Lopez has never been able to figure out the Mets. He is 3-5 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. Lopez has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 25 base runners in only 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mets this season alone. The Marlins are 3-25 as a dog of +150 or more this season and losing by 2.9 runs per game in this spot. This one will be over with early folks. Bet the Mets on the Run Line Tuesday. |
|||||||
09-27-22 | Orioles +115 v. Red Sox | 9-13 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Baltimore Orioles +115 The Baltimore Orioles have been the most profitable team to bet in baseball this season. They continue to fight to make the postseason here down the stretch as they are just 3.5 games behind the Mariners with an outside chance of getting in. The Boston Red Sox have packed it in already and were just officially eliminated. The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last six games overall and just gave up 14 runs to the Orioles last night. They could care less about winning this game or any game the rest of the way, so they have no business being favored. Kyle Bradish is one of the most talented young starters in baseball. Bradish has been great of late with a 1.77 ERA and 0.639 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners in 20 1-3 innings. Bradish held the Red Sox to just one earned run in 7 innings in his last start against them on September 11th. The Orioles are 5-0 (+7.2 Units) in Bradish's five road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season. Baltimore is 6-1 in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing record. We'll gladly back the more motivated team as an underdog tonight. Take the Orioles Tuesday. |
|||||||
09-27-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5 The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East. They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 13 games, making for an 11-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total. No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now. They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 28 games overall. These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers. Jose Berrios has posted a 5.27 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 30 starts this season. He just gave up 6 earned runs in 2 innings to the Rays in his last start. Berrios is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in nine career starts against the Yankees. James Taillon is no better than an average pitcher for the Yankees with a 3.90 ERA in 30 starts, including a 4.42 ERA in 14 road starts this season. The OVER Is 9-1 in Taillon's last 10 road starts with a total set of 7.5 to 8.5 runs. The OVER is 10-3 in Yankees last 13 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Yankees last eight games overall. The OVER is 7-3-1 in Blue Jays last 11 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
09-27-22 | Rays +136 v. Guardians | 6-5 | Win | 136 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +136 This is the perfect spot to fade the Cleveland Guardians, who are the hottest team in baseball. They just clinched the AL Central with their win over the Texas Rangers on Sunday. This is now a massive letdown spot for them, and I question their motivation the rest of the regular season. They are probably fade material the rest of the way, especially tonight after just clinching. The Rays still have something to play for as they are trying to clinch a wild card spot. I know they will show up tonight, and I'll gladly back the underrated Corey Kluber as an underdog. Kluber is 10-9 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 29 starts this season. Kluber has never lost to the Guardians, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in two career starts against his former team. You know he gets extra motivated when he faces his former squad, and he will bring his best stuff tonight. Shane Bieber has great numbers, but don't be surprised if he is on a pitch count as the Guardians play it safe with him heading into the postseason. Amazingly, Tampa Bay is 13-1 in road games with a total set of 7 or less this season. It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot. The Rays do well when a pitcher's duel is expected, which is certainly the case in this contest. Tampa Bay is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cleveland. Roll with the Rays Tuesday. |
|||||||
09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show | |
15* Cowboys/Giants ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1 The New York Giants are a fraudulent 2-0. They had to come back from a 13-0 deficit in the second half to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1. The Titans went on to lose 41-7 to the Bills in Week 2, so that win looks worse now. Last week, the Giants beat the Panthers 19-16 despite getting outgained 3.8 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play. They didn't deserve to win that game, and it's clear the Panthers aren't very good this season. I think the luck runs out for the Giants this week. Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Giants heading into this game. They could be without their top two pass rushers and their best interior DL in Leonard Williams, who is doubtful. They have cluster injuries at cornerback on defense, and WR Kedarius Toney is doubtful. The Giants are lacking explosive plays as they have just two completions of over 20 yards on offense this season. The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Bucs in Week 1, which isn't a bad loss. They came back and pulled the 20-17 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. They outgained the Bengals 337 to 254 in total yards and 5.7 to 3.8 yards per play. It was a dominant effort, and I just think the Cowboys are the better team even without Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush went 19-of-31 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. This Cowboys defense is absolutely loaded, and that has shown against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow the first two weeks. They have held those two teams to an average of just 300.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. The Cowboys get great news in the injury department this week. They get WR Michael Gallup back from injury, and two of their best defenders in LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs are both probable as well. Their defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I think their offense is just as good as the Giants if not better. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Dallas is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents, including 6-0 ATS in the last six. The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 home games. The Giants are frauds and will be exposed this week as their luck runs out against a better team in Dallas. Roll with the Cowboys Monday. |
|||||||
09-26-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5 The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East. They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 12 games, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total. No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now. They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 27 games overall. These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers. Kevin Gausman has been at his worst at home, going 4-7 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. Luis Severino is 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 17 starts this season, but the Blue Jays will get to him tonight. Severino has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings for a 7.45 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays this season. The OVER is 12-3 in Gausman's last 15 home starts with a total set of 7 to 7.5 runs. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Yankees last seven games overall. The OVER is 7-2-1 in Blue Jays last 10 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8 There is expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left tonight at Yankee Stadium, which is going to help us cash this OVER 8 ticket. I don't think we need the extra help as these are two of the better offenses in the American League, especially the Yankees. The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East. They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of their last 12 games overall, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 8-run total. The Yankees are more than capable of covering this total on their own. They will get to Brayan Bello, who is 2-5 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four road starts. The Red Sox have scored 4 runs or more in five of their last six games overall. Nestor Cortes has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in three career starts against Boston. The Red Sox and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in each of their last five meetings. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Packers +2 v. Bucs | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 119 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Packers/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +2 This is more of a play against the Bucs than it is a play on Green Bay. The Bucs are very fortunate to be 2-0 SU & ATS this season with all their injuries. And it has gotten worse this week. QB Tom Brady and G Shaq Mason are the only two healthy players for the Bucs on offense, and even Brady has a finger issue. He was in obvious discomfort during portions of practice available to the media this week. The Bucs are expected to be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are also banged up and questionable. They signed Cole Beasley off the street, so you know they are having WR problems. They are without two starting offensive linemen in C Jensen and T Wells. They will also likely be without T Donovan Smith, who is doubtful. It's no wonder Tom Brady has looked pedestrian. The Bucs are only averaging 19.5 points, 303.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play this season. They should have lost to the Saints last week, who gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers, including 4 in a 9-play span in the 2nd half. The Packers won't let them off the hook this week. Green Bay got their running game going last week in a 27-10 win over Chicago. They were also healthier at receiver and along the offensive line, and they enter this week very healthy. They rushed for 203 yards against the Bears, and their ground game is as big of a strength as I can ever remember. That's dangerous when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The Bucs have been susceptible to the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The Saints rushed for over 100 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry against them last week, and that was without Alvin Kamara, who was out with an injury. They signed run stuffer Akiem Hicks in the offseason, but he was injured against the Saints and is out at least 4 weeks. The Packers are going to have much more success against this Tampa Bay defense than the Cowboys and Saints did. And I expect Green Bay to shut down the Bucs as this is one of the better defenses the Packers have had in recent memory. They are giving up just 16.5 points per game through two weeks. The Packers are playing with double-revenge after losing their last two meetings with the Bucs, including one in the playoffs. You know they have had this game circled all offseason. The Packers 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after playing the Chicago Bears. Bet the Packers Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Jaguars +7 v. Chargers | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 119 h 12 m | Show |
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 I grabbed the Jaguars at +7 early in the week. I knew there was a chance Justin Herbert wouldn't play, and I liked them at +7 even if he did play. Well, Herbert is likely out for this game as the line has been adjusted down from +7 to +3 as of Friday afternoon. I like the Jaguars at +3 as well if he doesn't play. Not to mention, the Chargers are also going to be without their top CB in J.C. Jackson, and their best WR in Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the injury report could not look better for the Jaguars. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now. The Jaguars outplayed Washington in the opener and should have won, outgaining them 6.2 to 5.8 yards per play. They showed what they were capable of in Week 2 with a 24-0 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at home. They outgained the Colts 331 to 218 and 4.9 to 4.5 yards per play. This looks like a much improved Jaguars team under first-hear head coach Doug Pedersen through two weeks already. Pedersen has clearly gotten through to Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a completely different QB in Year 2. He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 255 yards per game and a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio with 7.1 yards per attempt. Remember, Pedersen won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles. I think the spot is a tough one for the Chargers even without the injuries. They are coming off two huge division games to start the season, including a 24-27 loss at Kansas City, which is their most hated rival and the team they want to beat the most. They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Jaguars this week. Plays against home favorites (LA Chargers) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Jaguars Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -115 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -115 The Arizona Diamondbacks have the advantage on the mound today over the San Francisco Giants, who will be going with an opener in Scott Alexander before giving way to their bullpen. This is a poor Giants bullpen with a 4.04 ERA and 1.375 WHIP on the season. This is a play on rookie Drey Jameson of the Diamondbacks. James is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 13 innings against the Dodgers and Padres. Those are two of the best lineups in the National League, so shutting them down is no small feat. He will certainly shut down this suspect San Francisco lineup, too. The Giants are 9-26 as a dog of +100 to +150 this season. San Francisco is 9-25 in its last 34 games following a loss. Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Guardians -134 v. Rangers | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -134 The Cleveland Guardians will clinch the AL Central with a win on Sunday. It's safe to say they will be motivated to do just that, and to party tonight knowing they have tomorrow off. They are so close they can taste it, and no team has been hotter than the Guardians down the stretch, going 15-2 in their last 17 games overall. I'm not a huge Aaron Civale fan, but he is better than Cole Ragans of the Rangers. Ragans is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in seven starts this season. Civale has owned the Rangers with a 0.75 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings. The Rangers are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall. Bet the Guardians Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Tigers +228 v. White Sox | 4-1 | Win | 228 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +228 The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way. Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday. Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games. They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1 of that series. I successfully faded the White Sox in each of the first two games of this series with the Tigers +162 in Game 1 and the Tigers +168 in Game 2. I'm not about to back off now with the Tigers at an even better price of +228 in Game 3 Sunday. The White Sox cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number given their mental state, not even with Dylan Cease on the mound. Tyler Alexander is coming off his best start of the season for the Tigers, pitching 7 shutout innings in an 11-0 victory at Baltimore as a +185 underdog. Alexander has held the White Sox to 3 runs or fewr in five of his last six starts against them. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games overall with all four wins as underdogs of +155 or higher. Roll with the Tigers Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +7 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 116 h 44 m | Show |
20* Chiefs/Colts AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7 (-130) This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Indianapolis Colts. This line would have been close to a PK to open the season. So we are getting basically 7 points of value based off of the results from only two weeks of football. And even those two weeks are misleading. The Chiefs are 2-0 with a blowout win over a bad, injury ravaged Arizona team and a 27-24 win over the Chargers. They did not deserve to beat the Chargers as there was a 99-yard pick 6 that changed that game. They were outgained 401 to 319 in total yards by the Chargers. The Colts outgained the Texans 517 to 299 in total yards in Week 1 and settled for a 20-20 tie in a game they should have won according to the stats. Unfortunately, many of their best players were injured in that OT game and sat out against the Jaguars the next week. Those injuries were the biggest reason the Colts lost 24-0 and got upset. That's why this is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on them. Now the Colts get many of those key players back this week. They were without their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last week, which is the biggest reason the offense struggled. But both are back this week for Matt Ryan. It looks like DT DeForest Buckner will play this week for the Colts too as he is probable. Almost all the key players are probable with the exception of LB Shaq Leonard, who will sit out his third straight game to start the season. The Colts are now with their backs against the wall looking for their first victory of the season, so you know we are going to get an 'A' effort, especially with a team like the Chiefs coming to town. And this will be their home opener and a great atmosphere. After being favored in their first two games, the Colts are back in the role of the underdog where they thrive. Frank Reich's teams notoriously get off to slow starts to the season before improving rapidly as the season goes on, which is what happened last year even with Carson Wentz at QB. Look for them to get Jonathan Taylor finally going this week against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run. He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 TD Last season. That will make life much easier on Matt Ryan, who has been in comeback mode for all eight quarters this season, so they haven't been able to establish the run. The return of Pittman Jr. and Pierce at receiver will also open things up for this offense. The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game. Indianapolis is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. The Colts are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Colts Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Saints v. Panthers +3 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 116 h 44 m | Show |
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3 It's time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games, but easily could have won and covered each of their first two games. They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1. They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play. It's now or never for the Panthers, who match up well with the Saints. That was evident last year as they won 26-7 at home as identical 3-point underdogs while outgaining them 383 to 128 in total yards. They only lost 24-27 as 7-point dogs in New Orleans in the rematch. The Saints have a lot of problems in the injury department right now. Alvin Kamara sat out against the Bucs last week and is questionable to return. They have OL injuries and WR injuries, plus Jameis Winston is playing through a fractured back. That helps explain why they committed five turnovers against the Bucs last week to give that game away. It won't get any easier against this Carolina defense this week. Backing 0-2 teams against 1-1 teams in Week 3 have gone 30-13 ATS since 2010. There's just always value backing these 0-2 teams with a worse record and their backs against the wall. Winston is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career. Carolina is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - a non playoff team from last season that finished with two consecutive wins in the first month of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Panthers Sunday. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +3 | 37-26 | Loss | -120 | 88 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +3 The New England Patriots are much better than they are getting credit for this season. They are home underdogs this week after going on the road and handling the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was a much more dominant victory than the 17-14 final would indicate. The Patriots outgained the Steelres 376 to 243 in total yards and 5.7 to 4.2 yards per play. The opener for the Patriots was also misleading. It was closer than the 20-7 final score against the Dolphins would indicate. The Patriots were only outgained 271 to 307 in total yards and 5.0 to 5.2 yards per play. That's the same Dolphins team that just came back from 21 points down to upset the Ravens on the road last week. The biggest reason the Dolphins were able to come back was because the Ravens had injuries and poor play in their secondary. Those issues have not been solved this week, and Mac Jones and company will pick apart their secondary just as the Dolphins did. The Dolphins had 547 total yards and 42 points, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns. It's also worth noting the Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, but that was a misleading final score. The Jets outgained the Ravens 380 to 274 in total yards. So the Ravens have lost the stats each of thefirst two weeks, and they are in much worse shape than the Patriots injury-wise. The Patriots clearly have the better defense in this one, and I trust Bill Belichick to come up with the right game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson. After all, the Ravens have NEVER won a regular season game in New England since they moved to Baltimore. The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or fewer. This is the home opener for the Patriots and fans will pack the stands in anticipation of seeing their team for the first time. They have one of the better home-field advantages in the league. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Patriots Sunday. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Tigers +168 v. White Sox | 7-2 | Win | 168 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +168 The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way. Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday. Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games. They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1. I successfully faded the White Sox yesterday and cashed in the Tigers +162 in Game 1 of this series. I cannot believe the Tigers come back as +168 dogs in Game 2 given the terrible situation for the White Sox. They simply aren't going to be motivated the rest the way now, and it has sunk in with them just how big of a disappointment they are. I don't mind the pitching matchup for the Tigers, either. Drew Hutchison has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA in six road starts this season. Davis Martin is 1-4 with a 4.35 ERA in six starts for the White Sox, and 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in one home start. Martin has no business being this big of a favorite today. Roll with the Tigers Saturday. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Southern Miss +13 v. Tulane | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 11 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +13 Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football. The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB's on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback. They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB. That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hall. Now Hall enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year. The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB. Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game. To no surprise to myself, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 ATS this season. I took them and they covered in a 27-29 loss as 3.5-point underdogs to Liberty in the opener. That's a Liberty team that nearly upset Wake Forest last week, losing 36-37 as 18-point road underdogs. Unfortunately, QB Ty Keyes got injured in that opener against Liberty and it's probably the reason they lost. Keyes sat out against Miami in Week 2, but they still managed to cover in a 30-7 loss at 27-point underdogs. But Keyes returned last week to lead the Golden Eagles to a 64-10 win over Northwestern State as 34-point favorites. He went 6-of-9 for 192 yards and three touchdowns before giving way to the backups. He is a dual threat who has also rushed for 56 yards and a score on 12 carries this season. Despite the tough schedule, the defense is balling out again holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 375 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. Tulane is also 3-0 ATS, but this team is the one being overvalued. That's because the Green Wave are coming off a shocking 17-10 upset win as 13-point dogs at Kansas State. But K-State is getting terrible QB play this season from Adrian Martinez, and it was a massive lookahead spot for the Wildcats with Oklahoma on deck this week. Tulane's other two wins came against UMass and Alcorn State. Those are two of the worst teams in the country in FBS and FCS, respectively. Remember, the Green Wave went just 2-10 last season. While they are improved as well, they should not be 13-point favorites over Southern Miss. Especially with this now being a big letdown spot after the win over Kansas State, and a sandwich spot with Houston on deck next week. Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as a road underdog. The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take Southern Miss Saturday. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 6.5 No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now. They have scored at least 4 runs in 21 of their last 25 games overall. They will get to Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays tonight for 4-plus runs to do their part. The Rays have scored 20 runs the past two days and are feeling good at the plate right now. That's why I think they will get to Toronto's ace Alek Manoah. The good news is they don't have to get much here as this total has been adjusted too much for Manoah with a total of just 6.5 runs. Drew Rasmussen has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts, one of which came against Toronto on September 14th when he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings. The Blue Jays and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in eight consecutive games coming in. That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 6.5-run total. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Arizona +3 v. California | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -100 | 65 h 23 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +3 Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season. They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah. Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of. Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job. Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022. They added in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback, and this already looks like one of the most improved teams in the country. I backed Arizona in Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State. That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards. De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win. Arizona came back and lost to Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but then upset #1 Ranked FCS power North Dakota State 31-28 last week. The Wildcats have been through the gauntlet already with a brutal schedule and have gotten through at 2-1 despite being underdogs in all three games. Now they are a dog to California and they shouldn't be. Cal is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back. I have not been impressed with them at all as they had a narrow win 20-14 over UNLV and beat Cal Davis 34-13 for their lone victories. They did cover in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, but that's the same Notre Dame team that was upset by Marshall the previous week. The Fighting Irish are clearly down. This is a bad spot for Cal now after facing a program the caliber of Notre Dame on the road. Now they return home where they have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country as fans just don't show up to their games. Keep in mind Arizona's lone win last season came against Cal and they dominated, outgaining them 331 to 122, or by 209 total yards. They were -3 in turnovers and still won that game. Arizona is improved this season, while Cal is worse, so it should lead to another upset victory for the Wildcats. Cal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Arizona Saturday. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | James Madison +7.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 63 h 23 m | Show |
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +7.5 There have been few spots I can recall that have been as bad as this one for Appalachian State. I faded them with success with Troy as double-digit underdogs last week because they were in such a bad spot. And after they beat Troy on a hail mary in a game they should have lost, this is now an even worse spot. In Week 1 Appalachian State lost a 63-61 shootout to North Carolina. They pulled the shocking 17-14 upset at Texas A&M in Week 2. Texas A&M is clearly down this season, though. And last week they got that hail mary on the final play of the game on the tip drill that was completely bogus. They are feeling fat and happy right now, but also fatigued given that all three games went to the wire decided by 4 points or less. You know who is not fatigued? James Madison. The Dukes are coming off a bye week after winning each of their first two games in blowout fashion. They won 44-7 over Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites in the opener, covering by 32.5 points. They outgained the Blue Raiders by 429 yards. That win looks even better now after Middle Tennessee went on to cover their next two games by a combined 52.5 points. The Dukes also beat Norfolk State 63-7 as 41.5-point favorites in Week 2 and covered by 14.5 points. I think the betting markets are low on James Madison because it's their first season as an FBS school. But remember, James Madison went 12-2 last season and has made the FCS playoffs eight consecutive seasons, including the championship game three times. They have been the second-best team in the FCS behind North Dakota State. Curt Cignetti is in his fourth season here and has continued the winning tradition. I think the Dukes are already among the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is saying a lot because this is perhaps the most underrated conference in the country. They will show it this week in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Appalachian State. College Gameday was at Appalachian State last week as well, which only adds to the letdown spot for the Mountaineers. The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Bet James Madison Saturday. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Duke v. Kansas -7 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 53 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -7 Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country. He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program. He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year. The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset. They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season. Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2. The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1. They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play. In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs. That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season. In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs. That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season. Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 53.0 points per game, 454.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play. They are also holding opponents to 379 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.4 yards per play. Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 260 rushing yards per game and 7.4 per carry. They are also completing 67.6% of their passes and efficient in the passing game. No question Duke is improved this season, too, but I question their level of competition to this point. The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T. Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS, Northwestern may be the worst team in the Big Ten after losing to Southern Illinois last week, and NC A&T is one of the worst teams in FCS. Duke went 3-9 last year, was outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 99 yards per game. Kansas has faced the much tougher schedule with road games at WVU and Houston already. Simply put, oddsmakers and the betting public haven't caught up to how good this Kansas team is, and we'll keep taking advantage. Fans are now excited about this team, and they should have the best home-field advantage they have had in years. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last six games overall and covering the spread by an average of 21 points per game. Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 63 or higher and losing by 37.0 points per game in this spot. The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 34.1 points per game. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Saturday. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Kent State +45 v. Georgia | 22-39 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kent State +45 Washington and Oklahoma look like two of the best teams in the country. Well, Kent State only lost by 25 to Washington and by 30 to Oklahoma. Now they are catching 45 points against another one of the best teams in Georgia. I think they can cover this number against a Georgia team that won't be that interested in this game. This is a sandwich spot for Georgia, coming off a win over South Carolina in their SEC opener and having another SEC game on deck against Missouri. We saw them fail to cover in a similar situation already once this season. After beating Oregon in their opener, and having their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina, they only beat lowly Samford 33-0 as 53.5-point favorites. Kent State flexed their muscle with a 63-10 win over Long Island last week. That was essentially a bye as their starters got to rest in the second half. That's big because the Golden Flashes won't run out of gas in the second half even if they are getting beat up a little. They should keep coming and fight for us to cover this inflated number. I doubt Georgia even scores 45 points in this one. Kent State did move the ball on Oklahoma and Washington, averaging 318 yards per game and 4.5 per play against them. Head coach Sean Lewis is a great offensive mind. The Golden Flashes averaged 49.8 points per game two seasons ago and 33.0 points per game last year. While the offense won't be as good, this does appear to be the best defense Lewis has had in his five seasons here. New defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson has made an impact after spending the past eight seasons at Northern Iowa, including finishing as a Top 15 FCS defense each of the last three years. Kirby Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia. Roll with Kent State Saturday. |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Cardinals +157 v. Dodgers | 11-0 | Win | 157 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +157 The Dodgers are going to find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way as they already locked up the top seed in the National League and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That has shown in their play as they lost two of their last three to the Diamondbacks and should have lost all three after a blown save by Arizona. They have scored just 6 runs total in their last three games. The Cardinals still have something to play for as they are trying to wrap up the NL Central. I think they have a much better chance of winning this game than this line would indicate, especially with Jose Quintana on the mound and their motivational advantage. Quintana is one of the most underrated starters in baseball, going 5-6 with a 3.04 ERA in 29 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three. Quintana is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 10 career starts against the Dodgers. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts against the Dodgers, so few starters have had as much success against them as he has. The Cardinals are 12-2 (+12.5 Units) in Quintana's 14 starts this season after allowing two earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts coming in. St. Louis is 37-16 in its last 53 games overall. The Cardinals are 36-15 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter. They are scoring 5.1 runs per game against southpaw starters in 2022. Take the Cardinals Friday. |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Tigers +162 v. White Sox | 5-3 | Win | 162 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +162 The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way. Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday. Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games. They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1. Situationally, they cannot be this big of a favorite against the Tigers today. Let alone with gas can Lucas Giolito going tonight. Giolito is 10-9 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 4-7 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 12 home starts. He is 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA In 18 career starts against Detroit, including 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three while allowing 10 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. Eduardo Rodriquez has been much better than Giolito this season. He is 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 14 starts, including 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in six road starts. Rodriquez has never lost to the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in seven career starts against them. Bet the Tigers Friday. |