15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4.5

The Ohio State just put an end to their 4-game losing streak to hated rival Michigan in a 27-9 road win last week.  I actually think they wanted that win more than they will want to win the Big Ten Championship Game here against Indiana.  If there was ever a team to have a letdown in a title game, it would be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes know even if they lose to Indiana they will still likely get a 1st-round bye in the 12-team playoff.  I question their motivation as a result.  I also question their strength of schedule as they have breezed through one of the easiest slates you can imagine.  They avoided Oregon, Indiana and USC this season.  Against the best team they played in Texas, they only won 14-7 at home and were outgained 336 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 133 total yards.

Indiana is the real deal this season. The Hoosiers had to go on the road for their two toughest games and beat both Oregon and Penn State.  Ten of their 12 wins came by double-digits.  They have numbers that are very comparable to that of Ohio State, and this will feel like a home game being played in Indianapolis.  They have done everything possible to this point to prove their doubters wrong, and a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten title and the #1 seed in the playoff would be the ultimate validation for them.  I have no doubt this game means more to the Hoosiers than it does the Buckeyes, and I think that plays out on the field Saturday night.

Indiana averages 7.2 yards per play on offense and allows 4.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  Ohio State is slightly better at 3.1 yards per play, averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 3.8 yards per play on defense.  But the Buckeyes defense hasn't face an offense nearly as good as the one they will be up against Saturday night.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Duke/Virginia ACC Championship No-Brainer on Virginia -4

Virginia beat Duke 34-17 on November 15th on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cavaliers outgained the Blue Devils 540 to 255, or by 285 total yards.  It wasn't even as close as the 17-point final would indicate as Virginia was by far the superior team.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

I know Virginia was fortunate early in the season with a lot of close wins, but there has been nothing fortunate about their last two wins.  They won that game by 17 over Duke while outgaining them by 285 yards, and last time out they handled rival Virginia Tech 27-7 as 8-point home favorites.  They outgained the Hokies 380 to 197, or by 183 total yards.

This Virginia defense is balling out here down the stretch.  The Cavaliers have allowed 21 points or fewer in six consecutive games and an average of 16.2 points per game during this stretch.  They have allowed an average of 229.5 yards per game in their last four games.  And that's the difference in this game.  Duke has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Blue Devils rank 101st in scoring defense at 29.4 points per game, 114th in total defense at 414.2 yards per game and 117th at 6.2 yards per play.

Duke is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week here with no late-season bye.  They have a tired defense which just gave up 468 total yards to Wake Forest last week, which has one of the worst offenses in the ACC.  It was a misleading final as the Blue Devils were outgained by 90 yards but were +4 in turnovers.

Virginia got a bye before its regular season finale against Virginia Tech.  That makes the Cavaliers the much fresher, prepared team for this game.  The ACC wants Virginia to win because if Duke wins they will be left out of the college football playoff, and the ACC would be in jeopardy of not getting a single team in the 12-team playoff.  I'm not saying Virginia will get all the calls, but I'm not saying they won't, either.  They don't need the calls as they are by far the superior team and will prove it once again Saturday night.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* BYU/Texas Tech Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from the 29-7 win by Texas Tech over BYU in their first meeting this season that saw just 36 combined points.  Now we have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total up at 49.5.

BYU managed just 255 total yards against Texas Tech in that first meeting and won't have any more success than they did the first time against one of the nation's top defenses.  The Red Raiders have allowed a total of 16 points in their last three games for an average of just 5.3 points per game.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense at 11.2 points per game, 7th in total defense at 258.9 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.  They are also 1st in rushing defense at 68.9 yards per game, making this a bad matchup for BYU's offense which is run-heavy.

BYU has a solid defense of its own.  The Cougars rank 17th in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game, 38th at 324.6 yards per game and 34th at 5.1 yards per play.  What they do extremely well is hold opponents out of the end zone as they are Top 10 in the country in allowing touchdowns inside the red zone.  We saw that play out in the first meeting as they held the Red Raiders to five field goals and just two touchdowns.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* North Texas/Tulane AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on North Texas ML -125

North Texas has been undervalued all season.  The Mean Green are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming to South Florida, which I actually believe to be the best team in the AAC but they were done in by close losses.  North Texas is easily the second-best team in the conference, and that will be on display tonight as they take down Tulane and are favored for good reason here on the road.

North Texas has been absolutely dominant with the pedal to the medal in the 2H of the season since that loss to USF to put itself in this position to make the 12-team playoff with a win tonight.  The Mean Green are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games beating UTSA 55-17, Charlotte 54-20, Navy 31-17, UAB 53-24, Rice 56-24 and Temple 52-25.  They have taken no prisoners and will keep their foot on the gas tonight.

Tulane has been far less impressive, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and getting by with several close wins.  There is a common opponent in there in UTSA, which Tulane lost 48-26 to.  And when you compare the numbers of these two teams, it's easy to see that North Texas is the better squad.

The Mean Green average 7.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play which is one of the best marks in the country.  Tulane averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  Solid numbers, but a far cry from the two best teams in the conference in North Texas and USF.

North Texas has one of the best passing offenses in the country at 325.7 yards per game through the air behind Drew Mestemaker (70.6% completions, 3,825 yards, 29 TD/4 INT).  They also rush for 186.1 yards per game with tremendous balance.  This is a terrible matchup for Tulane, which in recent games has allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to Florida Atlantic.  Their weakness is their secondary, and Mestemaker and company will exploit it.  Temps will be in the 50's tonight with no wind so the forecast favors the Mean Green passing attack.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* Kennesaw State/Jacksonville State C-USA Championship No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on Jacksonville State three weeks ago, 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State two weeks ago, and 48 points and 452 total yards on Liberty last week.  Kennesaw State is averaging 36.0 points per game in its last seven games.  

I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB here down the stretch.  He is completing 64.7% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and averaging 9.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 379 yards and 7 scores.

The problem for Kennesaw State is their defense, which gets gashed consistently especially on the ground.  Jacksonville State rushed for 252 yards on them, Missouri State 191 and Liberty 291 the last three games.  They are injured at LB which is a big reason for their problems stopping the run.

Jacksonville State has one of the best RB's in the country in Cam Cook (1,588 yards, 15 TD) and a dual-threat QB in Caden Creel (973 yards, 6.4/carry, 6 TD).  The Gamecocks rank 3rd in the country rushing for 262 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 per carry.  They are going to get whatever they want on the ground against this leaky Kennesaw State defense.

Jacksonville State is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Gamecocks won 37-34 at Western Kentucky last game for 71 combined points.  These teams combined for 71 points despite 5 Field Goals between them, so they actually got bogged down in scoring territory several times.  The Gamecocks racked up 515 total yards on WKU.

Kennesaw State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games going for 61 combined points with Jacksonville State, 75 with Missouri State and 90 with Liberty, which was at 70 at the end of regulation.  They had 579 total yards against Jacksonville State in that first meeting and 8 trips to the red zone, which resulted in just 3 TD and 2 FG as they turned it over 5 times.  So that 35-26 loss was a bit misleading and the Owls have a lot more room to put more points on the board in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Troy/James Madison Sun Belt Championship No-Brainer on James Madison -23

James Madison has been going for style points the entire 2nd half of the season knowing if they won out they would be a candidate to make the 12-team playoff.  They have done their part, and they will continue to go for style points tonight against Troy to impress the committee.  That's why I'm willing to lay this 23-point spread, plus several other reasons.

The Dukes are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS this season.  In their last six games, they beat Old Dominion by 36 at home, Texas State by 32 on the road, App State by 48 at home and Coastal Carolina by 49 on the road.  They continued to tack on points late in all of those games.

Old Dominion is easily the second-best team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 63-27.  Texas State is probably the 3rd-most talented team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 52-20 on the road.  Troy is just a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team that was fortunate to make the title game due to playing in the worse division, plus a meltdown by Southern Miss which lost its final three games of the season.  Their reward for making the title game? Get beat down by James Madison.

This is a terrible matchup for Troy.  The Trojans can't run the ball ranking 120th in rushing at 109.2 yards per game and 130th at 3.0 yards per carry.  They will have to rely on the immobile Goose Crowder to throw the football behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation.  The Trojans rank dead last in the country in pressure rate allowed and dead last allowing 4.1 sacks per game.  Old Dominion ranks 5th in the country in pressure rate defensively.

Against the only opponent that is even close to JMU talent-wise, Troy lost 33-0 at Old Dominion three games ago.  They were held to 138 total yards and allowed 503 yards, getting outgained by 365 yards by the Monarchs.  When JMU beat ODU 63-27, the Dukes outgained the Monarchs 624 to 285, or by 339 yards.  Bet James Madison Friday.

20* Wyoming/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Hawaii after a 38-10 loss at UNLV coming out of their bye last week.  The Rainbow Warriors will want to make amends for that performance in their final regular season game on Senior Night.  I look for them to make easy work of Wyoming tonight.

Hawaii is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes a 38-6 beat down of San Diego State in their last home game, and SDSU is one of the best teams in the conference.  I think the Rainbow Warriors were fat and happy going into their bye week off that win and didn't show up with the same level of focus at UNLV.  They will be refocused tonight.

Wyoming has one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing 24-7 to San Diego State, 24-3 to Fresno State and 13-7 to Nevada.  So they have been held to a total of 17 points in their last three games combined.

The Cowboys don't have the firepower to keep up with the Rainbow Warriors, especially since their two best playmakers suffered injuries in their last game and will now be out for this game.  They will be without leading receiver Chris Durr Jr. (46 receptions, 513 yards, 4 TD), and their next-best receiver only has 227 receiving yards so it's a huge loss.  They will also be without their top two RB's in Samuel Harris (552 yards) and Samuel Scott (400 yards).

I just don't know where the offense is going to come from for Wyoming in this game.  I also question their motivation after getting upset by Nevada last week to fall to 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I think they treat this trip to Hawaii more like a vacation than a business trip.  It's all business for the Rainbow Warriors tonight.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* UCLA/USC NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Trojans rank 11th in scoring offense at 37.2 points per game, 5th in total offense at 479.2 yards per game and 6th at 7.2 yards per play.  This despite playing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in Big Ten play.

The Trojans will come close to covering this total on their own against a UCLA defense that has allowed 48 or more points in three of their last four games to really let go of the rope.  The OVER is 4-0 in UCLA's last four games as a result where they are allowing 45.0 points per game in those four.

It looks like Nico Iamaleava is back at QB this week and he at least gives this UCLA offense a chance.  This is also a big step down in class against this USC defense after having to face Washington, Ohio State and Indiana defenses in three of their last four.  USC is decimated with injuries on defense and just allowed 42 points to Oregon last week.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings and 61 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Look for both offenses to let it all hang out in their final game of the regular season with really nothing at stake for either team.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Northwestern and Illinois.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

These are two very good defenses with Northwestern allowing just 21.0 points per game and Illinois allowing just 24.2 points per game.  The Wildcats rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.3 seconds.  The Fighting Illini are in no hurry either ranking 89th in tempo.  This will be a classic defensive battle in the Big Ten in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this Northwestern +7.5 ticket.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

Illinois needs to be able to throw the ball to be effective on offense, and it won't be able to throw the ball today in these conditions.  The Fighting Illini have struggled running the football all year.  They rank 108th in rushing at 132.2 yards per game and 102nd at 3.8 yards per carry.  Northwestern has been solid against the run allowing 141.8 yards per game.

With this game being played mostly on the ground, it really favors the Wildcats.  They are the better running team ranking 44th at 174 rushing yards per game and 35th at 4.8 yards per carry.  The Fighting Illini allow 127 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

These are two very evenly-matched teams overall so this 7.5-point spread is rich.  Northwestern outgains opponents by 17.3 yards per game while Illinois outgains foes by 17.7 yards per game.  Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/South Florida OVER 57.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  They never take their foot off the gas and that has been evident all season with their games flying over the totals because they keep scoring late into games.

The OVER is 7-2 in USF's last nine games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all nine games, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game and 1st in total offense at 497 yards per game.

Rice sits at 5-6 on the season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  That means the Owls are going to keep coming late into this game even if they are down big.  They will keep trying to score and will likely have to increase their tempo in the 2H.  Rice is quietly 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 71 or more combined points three times against similar teams to USF in North Texas (80), UConn (71) and UTSA (74).  

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Tampa with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Maryland/Michigan State OVER 48.5

There is a ton of bad weather across the country with snow and windy conditions especially in the Midwest.  Books have listed this total like it will be played outdoors in those elements.  But that's not the case today as this game will actually be played in the dome at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan on a fast track.  This total of 48.5 is too short tonight as a result.

I love the fact that it will be played indoors, but I also love the fact that both Michigan State and Maryland have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  There will be no defensive intensity from either team as a result, and I think a shootout will ensue as both teams unload the entire playbook in this 'meaningless' game.

Maryland just allowed 45 points to a poor Michigan offense at home last week.  The Terrapins have now allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall and it's not like they've played many good offenses during this stretch.  This is a very bad Michigan State defense as well ranking 113th in scoring allowing 30.1 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Kennesaw State ML -115

Kennesaw State gets into the C-USA Championship Game with a win today.  While the Owls will be max motivated to capture their 9th win of the season and make that title game, the Liberty Flames are just ready for their season to be overall.

The Flames have lost three consecutive games to Missouri State, FIU and Louisiana Tech to fall to 4-7 on the season and out of bowl contention.  What a major disappointment for a team that everyone pick to win Conference USA this season.

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games, and I don't think this Flames offense can keep up.  Bet Kennesaw State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* C-USA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kennesaw State/Liberty OVER 55

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

Liberty's offense has come to life here down the stretch averaging 32.2 points per game in its last five games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Flames' last five games with 57 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total of 55 is too low, especially since Kennesaw State is the best offense they will have faced during this closing stretch.

Kennesaw State is averaging 34.0 points per game in its last six games.  I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB.  He is completing 65.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and averaging 9.4 per attempt, while also rushing for 307 yards and 6 scores.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with no wind and no rain today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 56

Both Penn State and Rutgers sit at 5-6 this season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  Only one team can make it, and I think this game will be played very close to the vest as a result.  Neither team will want to make the big mistake with what's at stake.  This total of 56 is too high.

That's especially the case with Penn State involved.  The Nittany Lions have a suspect offense and an elite defense.  Penn State and its opponents have combined for 52 or fewer points in six consecutive games to close out the season.  This total of 56 is too high for a game involving the Nittany Lions.

This Rutgers offense has been terrible when playing some of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall largely due to being held to 19 points or fewer in four of those six games, including 13 points or fewer in three of them.  They will get nothing against this Penn State defense, either.

Penn State ranks 111th in the country in tempo and will slow this game to a crawl while controlling it with its running game.  That will keep the clock moving and limit possessions for this Rutgers offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington CBS No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Washington Huskies are playing their best football of the season here down the stretch with consecutive blowout wins over Purdue 49-13 and UCLA 48-14.  The Huskies are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and ready to pull off the upset against Oregon today.

Oregon is really banged up right now at WR and offensive line.  We've seen the Ducks struggle against some mediocre Big Ten teams on the road this season.  They needed a last-second FG to beat Iowa 18-16 and needed OT to beat Penn State.  I think this will easily be their toughest road test of the season today.

Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He is completing 72% of his passes for 2,721 yards while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 569 yards and 6 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the nation.  I think he's ready for his flowers on the National TV stage today giving the Ducks all they can handle.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/West Virginia OVER 52.5

This is a very low total for two teams that play as fast as West Virginia and Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds under Rich Rodriquez.  The Red Raiders rank 22nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  That's impressive considering they have been blowing almost everyone out, so they never take their foot off the gas.

West Virginia will not be going to a bowl game so this is their 'national championship'.  Rodriquez will pull out all the stops here with trick plays and everything he can throw at Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers will keep coming late in this game since it's their last game, so getting the necessary points we need in the 4th quarter will be on the table if we need them.

Texas Tech will come close to covering this total on its own with an offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 42.6 points per game and 18th in total offense at 481.6 yards per game.  The Red Raiders should have their way with a WVU defense that ranks 86th in scoring at 29.2 points per game and 68th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game.

Freshman QB Scottie Fox Jr. has really played well here down the stretch for the Mountaineers since taking over four games ago.  They nearly upset TCU, he led them 45 points against Houston, 29 points against Colorado and threw for 353 yards against Arizona State's vaunted defense last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Central Michigan UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Toledo and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 20's with double-digit wins and a 100% chance of snow during the game.

This game will also be played close to the vest as both Toledo and Central Michigan have a chance to make the MAC Championship Game.  I think both teams will be very conservative with what's at stake, and it will lead to more ball control offense and more punts to try and not make the big mistake.

Central Michigan ranks 135th out of 136th teams in tempo snapping the ball every 31.3 seconds.  Only Ohio State has been slower, and Ohio State plays with big leads every week so it makes sense.  CMU plays slow no matter what.  They also keep the ball on the ground with 43.2 rush attempts per game compared to just 18.1 pass attempts.  That keeps the clock moving and favors UNDERS.

Toledo is in no hurry, either, ranking 88th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  The Rockets boast one of the top defenses in the country.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 241.9 yards per game and 2nd at 3.8 yards per play.  They allow just 93.2 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Central Michigan ranks 38th in scoring defense at 22.8 points per game and 38th in total defense at 353.8 yards per game.  So these are two of the best defenses in the MAC with a lot at stake and two teams that like to play slow.  This sets up for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +3.5

Utah State has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 22.8 points per game in those five wins.  They will relish this opportunity to knock off Boise State and eliminate them from MWC title contention.

Boise State is without star QB Maddux Madsen and should not be favored by 3.5 points on the road at Utah State without him.  In their first road game without him, they lost 17-7 at San Diego State with 268 total yards.  In the game they lost him, they lost 30-7 at home to Fresno State and finished with 193 total yards.  Their only win since losing Madsen came against Colorado State, which has quit on the season at 2-9 with a fired head coach and in the midst of a 5-game losing streak with four of those losses coming by double-digits.

It's Senior Day for senior QB Bryson Barnes, one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Barnes is completing 62.2% of his passes for 2,502 yards with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 644 yards and 8 TD.  He leads a potent Utah State offense that is putting up 41.2 points per game, 490 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play at home this season.  Bet Utah State Friday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/New Mexico UNDER 42

This game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake.  A trip to the Mountain West title game is on the line for both San Diego State and New Mexico.  I think both teams will be playing tight offensively, and this will turn into a defensive battle between two of the best defenses in the MWC.  

SDSU ranks 4th in scoring defense at 12.5 points per game, 8th in total defense at 262.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.1 yards per play.  The Aztecs are led by a defense that is legitimately one of the best in the country.  New Mexico is 54th at 25.0 points per game, 51st at 367.6 yards per game and 55th at 5.6 yards per play with a stop unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  They have allowed 22 points or fewer in four of their five games during their current 5-game winning streak.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.

This New Mexico offense is not lighting up the scoreboard.  They were held to 20 points by Colorado State and 20 by Air Force in their last two games, which are two of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  The Lobos also aren't in a hurry ranking 103rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 27.8 seconds.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 8-3 UNDER in its 11 games this season.  The Aztecs and their opponents have combined for 42 or fewer points in seven of their 11 games this season, including 31 or fewer in four of their last five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +1.5

New Mexico is 8-3 this season including a perfect 5-0 at home.  The Lobos are 5-2 in conference play and fighting to make the MWC Championship Game.  A win over San Diego State here would go a long way in getting them to the title game as they trail the Aztecs by one game and are in a three-way tie for 2nd place.

New Mexico has come up clutch here down the stretch to put itself in this position.  The Lobos have won four consecutive games including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win against UNLV, a team they are tied with in 2nd place.  The Lobos will be fresh as they had a bye three weeks ago before beating both Colorado State and Air Force.

San Diego State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and is a tired, banged up team.  In their last road game, they lost 38-6 at Hawaii.  They also lost by 23 at Washington State and have been much worse on the road than they have been at home.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -19.5

North Texas (10-1, 6-1 AAC) is in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AAC.  Only two teams will make it, so the Mean Green are max motivated heading into this game with Temple.  They are not only motivated to win, but to do so with style since the playoff committee is keeping Tulane ranked ahead of them.  And the fact that they are going for style points couldn't have been more obvious than seeing what they've done in recent weeks.

Indeed, North Texas is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Mean Green beat UTSA 55-17 as 4-point home favorites, Charlotte 54-20 as 26-point road favorites, Navy 31-17 as 6.5-point home favorites, UAB 53-24 as 17.5-point road favorites and Rice 56-24 as 18-point road favorites.  They have scored 53 or more points in four of their last five games, which is a clear indication they have been trying to keep scoring late into games and have executed it to perfection.  They are taking no prisoners.

Temple has lost three straight to fall to 5-6 this season.  The five wins have not been impressive as they have come against the five worst teams they have faced in UMass (0-12), FCS Howard, UTSA (6-5), Charlotte (1-10) and Tulsa (4-7).  During their 3-game losing streak they were blown out by 31 at home by TCU and blown out at home by 24 by Tulane.  Now they hit the road here to face a max motivated North Texas team, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Temple just doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with North Texas.  The Owls managed just 14 points and 233 total yards against ECU and 13 points and 204 total yards against Tulane.  North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 45.3 points per game and 1st in total offense at 488.6 yards per game in the entire country.  This is going to be another blowout in the Mean Green's favor.  Bet North Texas Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State Egg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 63.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State play every year in the Egg Bowl, and every year it's more low-scoring than projected.  Both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had two full weeks to prepare for this game.  That favors defense over offense when both teams are as familiar with one another as they are coming into this Egg Bowl.

The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in the Egg Bowl finishing with 59 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings.  The last seven have all seen 55 or fewer combined points, and the last three in particular have been very low-scoring with 40 combined points in 2024, 24 in 2023 and 46 in 2022.  These are all with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and his high-octane offenses.

I also like the fact that this game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake for both teams.  Ole Miss is trying to qualify for the 12-team playoff, and a win will get them in.  Mississippi State is 5-6 this season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  I think both teams will be playing tight, which also favors the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Navy/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Navy +6

Navy is in a three-way tie for 1st place in the AAC with Tulane and North Texas.  This is a must-win for the Midshipmen if they want to play for a AAC title with a chance to make the 12-team playoff if they come out of it victorious.

While I know Navy will be max-motivated Thursday night, I question the motivation of the Memphis Tigers, who already have three losses in AAC play and have been eliminated from title contention.  They were in the driver's seat after an upset home over South Florida, but have fallen flat on their faces losing their last two AAC games 38-32 at home to Tulane and 31-27 at East Carolina.

This Memphis defense in particular has been absolutely shredded in three of its last four games with the exception being Rice, one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Tigers allowed 564 total yards to South Florida, 457 total yards to Tulane and 454 total yards to East Carolina.

Navy is 8-2 this season with its only two losses coming at North Texas and at home against Notre Dame, two teams who could be participating in the 12-team playoff.  The Midshipmen came up big with a 41-38 home win as 10-point dogs to South Florida last time out, racking up 524 total yards in the win.

Navy QB Blake Horvath is back and healthy.  He had a monster game in a 56-44 win over Memphis last season.  Horvath threw for 192 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 211 yards and 4 scores, totaling 6 touchdowns himself in the win.  You can bet he'll have another monster game against a Memphis defense that has been shredded in recent weeks and one that may just not be all that motivated to handle the physicality that comes with trying to defend the triple-option.  Bet Navy Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/UMass OVER 44.5

UMass is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Minutemen are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 48 or more combined points in all five, and 48 or more combined points in six straight coming into this one.  This total of 44.5 is very low for a game involving UMass.

The Minutemen rank 134th in scoring defense at 37.6 points per game and dead last (136th) in total defense at 440.9 yards per game.  Ohio took it easy on them last week only attempting 8 passes and running 57 times for 363 yards and still scored 42 points.  Northern Illinois and Akron both have terrible offenses, and they scored 45 and 44 points on them, respectively.  Kent State put up 42 points on them as well.

Bowling Green is known for having a bad offense this season, but even the Falcons will find plenty of success against this hapless UMass defense.  I also like the fact that this will be the final game for both teams and both won't be going to a bowl game.  That means the entire playbook is wide open and both offenses will have success.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on WKU/LSU OVER 48.5

LSU's offense has been held down this season largely due to playing a rugged SEC schedule that has been the 6th-toughest in the entire country.  Garrett Nussmeier got banged up and wasn't the same but played through injury.  I like the fact that they have now shut him down for the season and turned over the keys to Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren.

Van Buren played very well at Mississippi State last season taking over for an injured Blake Shapen, so he has big-time SEC experience.  He played half of the Alabama game and was the much more effective QB.  And he started and finished last week's win over Arkansas.  Van Buren gives them more mobility to make up for a shaky offensive line, too.

He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 60 yards and a score thus far.  Now he gets a chance to let his hair down and step out of SEC play and face one of the worst defenses in the country in Western Kentucky this week.  I have no doubt LSU is going to hang one of its biggest offense outputs of the season against WKU this week in the final home game at night in Baton Rouge.

Western Kentucky has played the 154th-ranked schedule in the country this season out of terrible C-USA.  Despite the easy schedule, they still rank 91st in total defense at 398.8 yards per game and 87th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  Against the best offense they have faced, they allowed 45 points and 508 total yards to Toledo.  It will be a similar result for their D against this LSU offense.

Western Kentucky profiles as an OVER team ranking 37th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds with a pass-happy offense.  The Hilltoppers rank 12th in the country at 296.1 passing yards per game.  They will relish this opportunity to test their offense up against a banged up, overrated LSU defense.  I think they can get at least a couple scores here to help contribute to us cashing this OVER 48.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -3

New Mexico is quietly 7-3 this season and in a five-way tie for 2nd place in the Mountain West with a real shot to make the conference championship game in head coach Jason Eck's first season on the job.  They are highly motivated to win these last two games and hopefully win out on some tiebreakers to get into the title game.

New Mexico has won four straight including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win at UNLV as 4.5-point dogs.  They had a bye week after that UNLV game and returned from it last week a little rusty.  That helps explain how they struggled to put away Colorado State 20-17.  But they lost fumbled four times and lost all four fumbles, which most teams wouldn't be able to overcome.  They were able to, and that's a good sign of the character of this team.

While New Mexico has everything to play for right now, Air Force just suffered its 7th loss of the season and will not be going to a bowl game because of it.  The Falcons will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after four wars against Army, San Jose State and UConn.  And the biggest reason I'm fading the Falcons this week is because they just lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn.

Now the Falcons have to fly clear back across the country and play without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

The matchup really favors the Lobos, too.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

New Mexico has a solid, balanced offense that averages 234 passing yards per game, 151 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  The Lobos will feast on one of the worst defenses in the country in the Falcons, who rank 122nd in scoring at 32.3 points per game allowed, 129th at 446.6 yards per game and 135th at 7.4 yards per play.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico/Air Force UNDER 55.5

Air Force lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn last week.  Their offense will be lost without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

This is a great matchup for New Mexico's defense.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

After being dreadful to start the season, Air Force's defense has had a huge turn here down the stretch and has allowed just 21 points per game in its last four games.  I think they can hold New Mexico in check enough to keep this game UNDER the total.

There will be very few possessions in this game as both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Air Force ranks 119th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.7 seconds.  They will probably go even slower now without Szarka and with a backup QB to try and shorten this game as much as possible.  New Mexico ranks 96th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.4 seconds and will be in no hurry, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pitt/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech -2.5

Georgia Tech will host one of the most important games in program history Saturday night at 7:00 EST.  With a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line, you can bet this will be one of the most raucous home crowds the Yellow Jackets have ever had.  I don't think it is being factored into this line enough.

It's also Senior Night for one of the best players in program history in senior QB Haynes King.  He is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He has completed 72.7% of his passes for 2,259 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 807 yards and 14 scores.  I trust in King to lead this team to victory. Saturday night.

What I don't trust is Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel to be ready for this moment.  He was exposed against Notre Dame throwing several balls into coverage that should have been picked off.  This Pitt offense was held to 15 points and 219 total yards by the Fighting Irish.  That was even after a TD on the final play of the game in garbage time.  Heintschel finished 16-of-33 passing for 126 yards with a INT in the loss.

Making matters worse is that Pitt star RB Desmond Reid was injured in the 4th quarter of that blowout loss when he shouldn't have even been in the game.  That leaves his status for this game very much in question.  Pitt only rushes for 119.3 yards per game and 3.6 per carry as an offense on the season so they won't even be able to take advantage of Georgia Tech's biggest weakness on D, which is against the run.

I think this line is lower than it should be because Georgia Tech struggled with Boston College last week on the road, needing a last-second FG to win 36-34.  The Yellow Jackets were coming off their bye week and they were clearly flat, at least defensively.  But in the back of their minds they knew they could lose that game and it wouldn't matter because they would need to win this game against Pitt to make the ACC Championship Game either way.  

Yet they still racked up 628 total yards and put together a game-winning drive to show their championship mettle.  They will show it off again Saturday night if the game is on the line late.  I trust senior King to make the plays necessary and freshman Heintschel to fold under the pressure of the moment.  

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 11-0 SU at home over the last two seasons with one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a raucous atmosphere for this one and likely the best home atmosphere over the last two seasons.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Texas State -17.5

Texas State is 4 plays away from being 8-2.  If they were 8-2, they would be much bigger favorites here against lifeless Louisiana-Monroe.  Instead they are 4-6 and scratching, clawing and fighting to make a bowl game.

Texas State has two OT losses and three losses by 3 points or fewer.  When you look at their numbers, they are much closer to a 8-2 team than one that is 4-6.  And that played out last week when they handed Southern Miss their first conference loss of the season in a dominant 41-14 victory.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the worst team in the Sun Belt in ULM and it should result in another blowout victory.

Injuries have decimated the Warhawks as they sit at 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  The Warnhawks are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits, and four of the six losses coming by 23 points or more.

Injuries at QB have been the biggest issue as the Warhawks are scoring just 11.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak.  They have no chance of keeping up with one of the best offenses in the country here.  Texas State ranks 24th in scoring offense at 35.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 474.4 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  Don't expect them to let up one ounce with their bowl lives at stake.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston PK

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It's just another example of head coach Willie Fritz proving he can turn around a program after doing the same thing at Georgia Southern and Tulane before arriving in Houston.  The Cougars are now 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and very much alive to play for a Big 12 title.

The spot favors Houston as well as the Cougars are off their bye week following a 30-27 road win at UCF.  That was a very misleading final as the Cougars outgained the Knights 433 to 282, or by 151 total yards.  They were able to overcome 4 turnovers, the 2nd consecutive game they have turned it over 4 times.  You can bet they have been working on ball security over the bye week and will be buttoned up for this huge game against TCU.

"I think it was really good for us," Fritz said of the bye week. "We had a team meeting on Monday, and I told them our No. 1 goal was to get as healthy as we possibly can.  So we were very careful with probably five or six guys who were banged up.  We've been getting them through the last two to three games. Now it looks like all of those guys are really healthy."

While the Cougars have everything to play for, the TCU Horned Frogs are dead after consecutive losses to Iowa State at home and BYU on the road.  They were blasted 44-13 at BYU to fall to 6-4 straight up and 3-4 in conference play this season.  I just don't think they'll show up this week with all of their dreams of winning a Big 12 title gone now.

Houston QB Conner Weignman has revived his career completing 64.9% of his passes for 2,113 yards with a 18-to-7 TD/INT ratio and 8.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 412 yards and 9 TD.  This is one of the most improved offenses in the country.

No question Houston has the better defense in this matchup.  The Cougars are allowing 22.1 points per game, 333.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  TCU allows 26.5 points per game, 374.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  We are getting the better, more motivated, more rested team at home at a PK here which is a tremendous value.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

Tulane appeared as the Group of 5 team in the 12-team playoff rankings Tuesday night.  It just means the committee believes they are the most likely team to get in.  It also puts a target squarely on their back, and puts the level of expectations for them higher than they should be.

Head coach Jon Sumrall was right when he said his team didn't look anything like a playoff team.  Sumrall's name is also popping up for several head coaching vacancies, which is a major distraction.  The Green Wave have all the pressure on them this week, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.

I love this spot for Temple.  They lost by 1 to Army going into their bye last week, and now they sit at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach KC Keeler's first season on the job.  They have North Texas on the road on deck next week, so they know this is their prime opportunity to pull off the upset and get that all-important 6th win as they will be bigger underdogs at North Texas next week.

Tulane is a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  The 11-point win over FAU at home as 17-point favorites was far from impressive last week.  They actually gave up 472 total yards to FAU and were outgained by 69 yards and fortunate to even win the game as they were +3 in turnovers.  And this has been a terrible, leaky Tulane defense that can't be trusted to get margin.

Tulane allowed 48 points and 523 total yards in a 48-26 road loss at UTSA three games ago.  They allowed 32 points and 435 total yards to Memphis, and then those 472 yards to FAU in their last three games.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to FAU.

Now they must face one of the most underrated QB's in the country in Temple QB Evan Simon, who has an eye-popping 22-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He also has some mobility with 198 rushing yards and 2 TD.  Simon has a trio of reliable receivers in Hollawayne (34 receptions, 6 TD), Bermudez (32, 4 TD) and Chase (32, 3 TD) and a reliable TE in Clarke (26, 4 TD).  Ducker (729 rushing yards, 6 TD) provides the balance.

Tulane has been far from impressive on the road this season.  The Green Wave beat Memphis by 6 which is their best road win.  They also needed OT to beat South Alabama 33-31, which is a 3-7 South Alabama team currently.  They lost by 22 at UTSA and by 35 at Ole Miss.  Temple beat UTSA outright as 6.5-point dogs and should have beaten Navy in a 1-point loss as 10-point dogs but were done in by the refs in two games against AAC teams that are on Tulane's level.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* USC/Oregon CBS No-Brainer on OVER 59

Two of the best offenses in the country square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between former Pac-12 rivals USC and Oregon, who have been notorious for playing in shootouts when they get together.  It will be no different now that they are in the Big Ten.

USC ranks 11th in scoring offense at 38.2 points per game and 7th in total offense at 488.9 yards per game.  More impressive yet, the Trojans rank 2nd averaging 7.4 yards per play.  The problem is while the defense is improved, it is also very injured right now after losing three starters to injury in a physical game against Iowa last week.  S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles) and DE Braylan Shelby (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) all left the game and did not return.

Oregon ranks 7th in scoring offense at 39.0 points per game, 12th in total offense at 475.4 yards per game and 3rd at 7.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the top three offenses in the country from a yards per play perspective.  Oregon's offensive numbers are also tamed a bit due to playing in some poor weather a few games, and the same can be said for USC's offense having to play in some poor weather this season against Iowa and Nebraska.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps around 50, no wind and no rain.  USC and Oregon have combined for at least 55 points in nine consecutive meetings, including 63 or more in eight of those nine.  They have averaged 75.2 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Marshall/Appalachian State OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  The Thundering Herd are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  That includes 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with ODU, 87 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina in five of them.  This total of 54.5 is way too short for a game involving Marshall right now.

The Thundering Herd rank 39th in scoring offense at 32.6 points per game.  But their defense is atrocious, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 31.3 points per game, 109th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.

This will be a big step down in class for this App State offense after having to face two of the top three defenses in the Sun Belt in Old Dominion and James Madison in recent weeks.  The Mountaineers really profile as an OVER team because they rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.7 seconds.

Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 68% of his passes for 1,761 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 588 yards and 4 scores.  He should light up this awful App State defense that ranks 89th in scoring at 30.4 points per game and 85th in total defense at 409.9 yards per game.  This is a tired App State defense that just allowed 58 points to James Madison last week.

The Mountaineers were a little stuck in the mud offensively not only because of the tough schedule of late, but also because they were stubborn and stuck with junior QB AJ Swann too long.  Well, Swann is out with an injury this week, which opens the door for their better QB in JJ Kohl to take the reigns the rest of the way.  Kohl has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 per attempt compared to Swann with a 10-to-8 TD/INT ratio and 6.7 per attempt.  Kohl is the better option and will torch this Marshall defense this week.  

Marshall beat App State 52-37 for 89 combined points last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, less than 10 MPH winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +31.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  And the spot is not a good one for the Buckeyes, who have their big rivalry game on deck against Michigan next week.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory here and aren't worried about running up the score knowing if they just win out they will make the 12-team playoff.

Ohio State needed a TD in the final minutes to cover the 33-point spread against UCLA at home last week in a 48-10 win.  That's a UCLA team that was playing without starting QB Nico.  In that game Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith suffered an injury and was forced from the game.

Ohio State was already without Carnell Tate (39 receptions, 711 yards, 7 TD) and now Smith (69 receptions, 902 yards, 10 TD) is banged up.  I would be surprised if either of these two star receivers played this week as the Buckeyes know they can win this game without them just by running the football and grinding out a win.  The Buckeyes have no problem grinding out games as they rank dead last (136th) in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 31.5 seconds.  That limits possessions and makes it more difficult for them to get margin.

I like the spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Ohio State.  They sit at 5-5 and one win shy of bowl eligibility and are max motivated.  They will have a chance to gain that eligibility next week too against Penn State, but they will be a dog in both games so they won't be looking ahead at that game.  I think they'll empty out the playbook this week trying to pull off the upset.

Ohio State hasn't faced many offenses as potent as this Rutgers offense.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 30 points per game while ranking 43rd in total offense at 420.5 yards per game and 23rd in passing offense at 277.4 yards per game.  Athan Kaliakmanis is one of the best QB's the Buckeyes have faced this season.  He is completing 62.3% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 17-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 per attempt.  

The Scarlet Knights have underrated playmakers at receiver too, and Antwan Raymond has already topped 1,000 rushing yards on the season with 11 TD.  This Rutgers offense won't be in a hurry either knowing that limiting possessions is their best chance to keep it close.  This just feels like a really sleepy spot for Ohio State with Michigan on deck.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SMU -2.5

The spot and the motivation really favors SMU in this showdown with Louisville Saturday.  That's why they should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Louisville, and I'll gladly take the value and lay the short number with the Mustangs at home here.

SMU is still alive to make the ACC Championship and thus the 12-team playoff.  They are one of four ACC teams with one conference loss and two will make it.  They have everything to play for, and they are off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to rest up and get ready to beat Louisville here.

Louisville is coming off consecutive gut-wrenching ACC losses.  They were upset by Cal at home by 3 and upset by Clemson at home by 1.  They now have three conference losses and no shot of winning the ACC Championship.  I question how they'll get back up off the mat here knowing all their dreams are crushed after they were sitting in such a prime position to make a run at a title.

Louisville hasn't been the same offensively since losing their best offensive weapon in RB Isaac Brown (782 yards, 5 TD, 8.6/carry) to a season-ending injury.  Now QB Miller Moss (2,344 yards, 11 TD) is questionable.  Brown rushed for 130 yards in leading them to a 28-16 win at VA Tech.  But he has missed the last two games, and they managed just 23 points at the end of regulation against Cal and 19 against Clemson.  They won't find much success against this improving SMU defense, either.

SMU really needed this bye week to recover after playing 6 straight weeks including a 26-20 (OT) win over Miami after a tough 1-point road loss at Wake Forest.  I was impressed with how they handled their business on the road at Boston College going into the bye.  They blasted the Eagles 45-13 on the road behind 574 total yards of offense.  Veteran QB Kevin Jennings is playing his best football of the season here down the stretch.  He threw for 365 yards on Miami's vaunted defense and 326 on Boston College.  

The Mustangs have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have gone 16-2 SU at home over the last three seasons.  Head coach Rhett Lashlee really emphasizes how important it is to defend their home turf, and it has been a big reason he has been one of the better recruiters in the country as well.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Hawaii/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Hawaii Warriors are rolling since Las Vegas HS legend QB Micah Alejado got healthy.  The Warriors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall scoring 39.0 points per game in those five games with Alejado throwing at least 3 TD passes in all five.  That includes a 38-6 home win over San Diego State as 6.5-point dogs last time out.  They even called off the dogs in the 4th quarter against the the Aztecs, who have one of the best defenses in the country and sit alone in 1st place in the Mountain West.

Now the Warriors return from their bye week refreshed and ready to make a run at the MWC title themselves.  They are in a four-way tie for 2nd place with a real shot to make the title game.  You can bet Alejado will have a ton of friends and family in attendance in his home town of Las Vegas, and this will be a very pro Hawaii crowd because of it.

UNLV is one of the biggest frauds in the country.  The Rebels are 8-2 this season against the 115th schedule.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games with five wins by 7 points or fewer.  That includes their 29-26 (OT) home win over Utah State last week where they were very fortunate to win thanks to three missed field goals and a missed extra point by the Aggies.

Now the Rebels will be on a short week and playing their 4th consecutive game off an OT game.  They are at a big rest disadvantage here facing a Hawaii team off a bye.  No question the Warriors are the better team in this matchup when you look at the numbers as well, and the wrong team is favored.  Hawaii allows 349.1 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season, while UNLV allows 448.6 yards per game and 6.6 per play.  I'll gladly back the better, more rested team as an underdog in this one.  Bet Hawaii Friday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State +9.5

Kent State kept its bowl hopes alive with a 42-35 (OT) home win over Akron last week.  The Golden Flashes sit at 4-6 on the season with a real shot to make a bowl if they win this game tonight.  They have lowly Northern Illinois on deck next week.

It's time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and in contention for the MAC Championship Game now.  The three wins came against Bowling Green, UMass and Buffalo, three of the worst teams in the MAC.

Central Michigan is just 1-4 SU in its last five road games with the lone win coming against Bowling Green who was without its starting QB.  They lost by 6 at Akron for a common opponent.  Kent State is 3-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming by 3 points.

Kent State QB Dru DeShields is grossly underrated.  He has a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He went 17-of-25 for 317 yards against Akron last time out.  I think he'll have what it takes to keep this game competitive against Central Michigan with the Golden Flashes having a shot to pull off the upset in the 4th quarter.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

20* Texas/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Texas +6

I love the spot for Texas this week.  The Longhorns are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to Georgia last season, once in the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game.  The Longhorns are off a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia, which will be playing for a 3rd consecutive week.

Texas was a 4-point favorite at home last year when they were upset 30-15 by Georgia.  That was a misleading final as they were only outgained by 24 yards.  Even more misleading was their 22-19 (OT) loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as 3-point favorites.  The Longhorns outgained the Bulldogs by 112 yards and should have won.  Now the Longhorns go from being favored in both meetings last season to a 6-point underdog in the rematch this season.  There's clearly some line value here from that fact alone.

Georgia has been very fortunate to be 8-1 this season.  In fact, the Bulldogs have spent more time trailing (over 201 minutes) during a 9-0 or 8-1 start for any FBS team since UCLA way back in 2005.  The Bulldogs have narrow wins over Florida by 4, Ole Miss by 8, Auburn by 10 only after punching in a TD in the final seconds, and Tennessee by 3.

Arch Manning was banged up early in the season, but he has gotten healthier and is coming off his two best games of the season.  He threw for 346 yards and 3 TD against Misssissippi State and 328 yards and 3 TD against Vanderbilt.  He'll be even healthier and more prepared to beat Georgia off a bye week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee -39.5

The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

New Mexico State has played the 141st-ranked schedule in the country.  The Aggies still have terrible defensive numbers despite playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.  You can just imagine what this Tennessee offense is going to do to them.

Tennessee is off a bye week with an outside chance of making the 12-team playoff as their will likely be at least one or two SEC teams getting in with 3 losses.  That means they need style points, and we know Josh Heupel is the king of running up the score late into the 4th quarter.  He just doesn't take his foot off the gas, as we've seen in his time here at Tennessee in these late-season non-conference games.

In 2024, Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0 as a 41-point favorite.  In 2023, Tennessee beat UConn 59-3 as a 35-point favorite.  In 2022, Tennessee beat UT-Martin 65-24 as a 38-point favorite.  And in 2021, Tennessee beat South Alabama 60-14 as a 28-point favorite.  So the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in these late-season non-conference games under Heupel winning all four by 42 points or more.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State/Tennessee OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all nine games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight of nine games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama three games ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 61.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama, 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky and 33 points to a previously dead Oklahoma offense.

Tennessee is going to come close to covering this total on its own against a New Mexico State defense that hasn't seen an offense in the same stratosphere talent-wise to Tennessee.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.

UAB managed to score 24 points behind 371 passing yards on this Tennessee defense.  New Mexico State is a pass-happy team that cannot run the ball and should find some success through the air as well to contribute to this total.  The Aggies rank 65th in passing offense at 234 yards per game.  QB Logan Fife has been solid with 2,066 passing yards and 11 TD.  The Aggies also like to play fast ranking 39th in tempo this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Tulane OVER 63

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Owls are a pass-happy offense behind QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 66% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 20 TD on the season.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 130th in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 105th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game allowed.

Tulane is coming off two high-scoring games in a 48-26 loss to UTSA for 74 combined points and a 38-32 win over Memphis for 70 combined points.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA and 368 to Memphis, so you can bet Veltkamp is going to have a big day through the air to keep up with Tulane in a shootout.  Tulane is going to get whatever it wants offensively this week.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -2.5

East Carolina is very much alive in the AAC Championship race among five different teams that have just one conference loss.  Memphis is not one of those teams.  Memphis was upset by UAB a few weeks ago and then upset by Tulane last week to pretty much get eliminated from playoff contention.  I question how the Tigers will get back up off the mat now with that realization.

East Carolina is hitting its stride with three straight blowout wins over Tulsa by 14, Temple by 31 and Charlotte by 26.  The Pirates just had a bye last week and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks, so they are as fresh and prepared as they can be for this game against Memphis.  The Tigers are running on fumes playing for a 5th consecutive week with three hard-fought one score games against UAB, USF and Tulane in there.  The spot really favors the Pirates at home here.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on NC State/Miami OVER 55.5

NC State is a dead nuts OVER team with an explosive offense and a terrible defense.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games, including 66 or more in five of them.  This total of 55.5 is very short for a game involving the Wolfpack.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

NC State's defense ranks 110th in the country in scoring allowing 30.6 points per game, 120th in total defense at 424.8 yards per game and 118th at 6.8 yards per play.  I expect this Miami offense to have one of its best games of the season.  The Hurricanes also will be going for style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so don't be surprised if they continue scoring late into the 4th quarter, which they have done against both Syracuse and Stanford recently.  But I expect NC State to hang and for this to be a back and forth shootout.  The forecast looks great for one with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on App State/James Madison OVER 53.5

James Madison needs style points to make the 12-team playoff.  The Dukes are 8-1 this season with their only loss on the road to Louisville, so they are very much alive for the 12-team playoff.  And we've seen them tack on extra scores late in going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

They beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points, beat Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points and beat Marshall 35-23 for 58 combined points.  This total of 53.5 is pretty low for a game involving James Madison right now that is looking to get margin with each win.

Appalachian State is a good OVER partner.  The Mountaineers rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.0 seconds.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country, and that has been on display in recent weeks allowing 31.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Their offense has been solid ranking 50th in total offense at 414.6 yards per game.  They really are a pass-happy attack ranking 19th at 288.2 yards per game.  That means more clock stoppages on incompletions when they have the ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +7.5

Penn State is coming off three straight gut-wrenching losses.  I question if they can get back up off of the mat with an interim head coach in time to face a rested Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week.

After losing 25-24 at Iowa in their first game without James Franklin, the Nittany Lions were competitive with Ohio State for a half before falling 38-14.  Then they had Indiana on the ropes last week before giving up a last-second touchdown in a deflating 27-24 loss.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Michigan State is 3-6 this season and still has bowl eligibility in its sights.  I think the Spartans will regroup and be motivated for their first Big Ten victory of the season.  They have been hard-luck losers in narrow losses to Minnesota, Michigan and Nebraska.  They actually outgained Minnesota 467 to 301, or by 166 total yards last time out and lost by 3.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their poor record despite having decent stats.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -6.5

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points hosting Iowa Saturday.

The Trojans are scoring 49.2 points per game, averaging 569 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 18.8 points per game, 305.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 31 points per game and outgaining them by 263 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play at home.

USC crushed Michigan 31-13 while outgaining the Wolverines by 173 yards at home earlier this season.  They crushed Northwestern 38-17 while outgaining the Wildcats by 202 yards last week at home.  Michigan and Northwestern are similar teams to Iowa, and I think the same fate will happen for the Hawkeyes this week as they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Trojans, who are going to put up a big number.

Iowa had an outside shot of making the 12-team playoff had it beaten Oregon last week.  Well, the Hawkeyes fell short in heartbreaking fashion 18-16 at home.  That's an Oregon team that was down its top three receivers and still outgained Iowa by 134 yards.  The Ducks did so in punishing fashion rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries on the Hawkeyes.  It was the type of loss that can beat a team twice as Iowa's hopes and dreams of making the playoff or winning the Big Ten are now gone.

Now Iowa has to try and get back up off the mat to face a more potent, healthier USC offense that has shown it can run the football as well rushing for 224 yards on Michigan, 202 on Nebraska and 173 on Northwestern.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and these Big Ten teams traveling out to the West Coast have fared terribly all season.  Iowa is in over its head here.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/Southern Miss OVER 65

Texas State is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 72 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 65 is actually pretty short for a game involving Texas State right now.

The Bobcats rank 10th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.7 points per game and 11th in total offense at 477.2 yards per game.  The problem is they don't play defense, which is why they have lost five straight despite scoring at least 30 points in four of the five.  They rank 129th in scoring defense at 34.8 points per game.

Southern Miss ranks 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  So these are two Top 20 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.  This Southern Miss offense has been lighting up opposing defenses for 32.3 points per game this season.  The Eagles have scored at least 38 points in five of their last eight games and I expect them to reach or exceed that mark to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 65 ticket.

Texas State had two starters on defense suspended after a brawl at the end of their 42-39 loss to Louisiana last week.  That will make an already putrid Bobcats defense that much worse.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +15

I love the spot for NC State this week.  The Wolfpack are coming off a bye and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks.  They couldn't be fresher than they are right now, and they should be prepared to give Miami a run for its money this week.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of last time out upsetting Georgia Tech 48-36 as 5.5-point home dogs to hand the Yellow Jackets their first loss of the season.  They will be motivated for a 6th win to get bowl eligible, and they would love nothing more than to wreck Miami's season.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

The Hurricanes have been playing with their food recently.  They suffered upset losses to Louisville at home and SMU on the road in two of their last four games.  In their other two games, they needed big 2H's to pull away from both Stanford and Syracuse, two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They only led Syracuse 14-3 in the 3rd quarter and they were tied 7-7 with Stanford at halftime in their last two home games.

While NC State is off a bye week, Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and I question how much they have left in the tank.  The Hurricanes are good, but they should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against this rested, underrated NC State team today.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -14

Colorado has quit on the season and just wants it to be over at this point.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by double-digits, including four losses by 17 points or more.  They lost 28-0 at Wyoming two games ago, then returned from their bye week and got stomped 42-10 at home by UNLV last week.

It won't go any better for them against a New Mexico team that is coming off its bye week and motivated to win a MWC Championship.  The Lobos are only one game out of first place and the two teams atop the MWC in Boise and San Diego State play each other this week.  The Lobos won't be taking the Rams lightly.

New Mexico went into the bye off two impressive wins over Utah State 33-14 at home and UNLV 40-35 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  That's the same UNLV team that just smoked Colorado State 42-10 last week for a recent common opponent.  The Rams will offer no resistance here.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* Arkansas/LSU SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +6

I love the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks.  They needed a bye week and got it last week after a brutal SEC schedule where they kept coming up short.  Now they've had two weeks to regroup and prepare to beat LSU for their first SEC victory.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset this week.

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss.  In fact, this might be the best 2-7 team I've ever seen.  Six of the seven losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame.  They lost by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss.  They easily could have won all six of those games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for LSU.  They had their 'all in' game last week against rival Alabama with their interim head coach.  They played hard for him in their first game since firing Brian Kelly, but now I question how motivated they'll be to face Arkansas a week later.  It's an LSU program in turmoil and players already have one foot out the door.  They will also be switching to backup QB Michael Van Buren to try and spark the offense.

I don't think Van Buren and company have the firepower to keep up with Arkansas QB Talen Green.  The Razorbacks are loaded on offense, ranking 8th in total offense at 484.4 yards per game and 4th at 7.3 yards per play.  They put up 42 points on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss, and those numbers are made even more impressive considering the tough schedule of opposing defenses faced this season.  Green is motivated to improve his NFL draft stock and will show out against this banged up, tired LSU defense.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/LSU OVER 56

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in its nine games this season.  The Razorbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 57 points in all nine games.  This total of 56 is very low for a game involving the Razorbacks.

They hung 35 points on Mississippi state, 42 on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss in SEC play to prove they can score even against good SEC defenses.  They will score against this banged up, overrated LSU defense that just allowed 49 points at home to Texas A&M in their last home game.

I like the fact that LSU is going to Michael Van Buren at QB.  He is more of a dual-threat who played well at Mississippi State in place of an injured Blake Shapen last year before transferring to LSU.  Garrett Nussmeier has been banged up and ineffective, and Van Buren's dual-threat ability will open up things for this LSU offense moving forward.

Of course, it helps that LSU is taking a big step down in class of opposing defenses here after having to face the gauntlet of Alabama, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Ole Miss in their last five games.  Not to mention they also played Florida and Clemson early in the season, so their offensive numbers have been tamed.  They will have success against an Arkansas defense that ranks 124th in scoring at 33.3 points per game, 122nd in total defense at 430.6 yards per game and 123rd at 6.2 yards per play.  This has the makings of a back and forth shootout in Baton Rouge with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Cincinnati OVER 56

The Bearcats are a wagon offensively ranking 5th in the country averaging 7.3 yards per play.  They also like to play fast ranking 32nd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They have great balance led by a rushing attack that ranks 25th at 196.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per carry.

That's where I think Arizona will have problems in this game is stopping Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby, one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Sorsby has thrown for 2,050 yards with a 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 453 yards and 8 scores.

The Wildcats have been very leaky against the run lately allowing 258 rushing yards to BYU, 232 to Houston and 170 to Kansas.  Houston QB Connor Weigman rushed for 98 yards and a TD on them, BYU QB Bear Bachmeier rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD, and Kansas QB Jaylon Daniels rushed for 74 yards and a TD on them.  The Wildcats clearly have a problem defending dual-threat QB's, and Sorsby is better than all three of those guys.

Arizona also likes to play fast ranking 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.  The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 69 points with Colorado, 59 with Houston and 60 with BYU.  They rank 33rd in scoring at 33.0 points per game.  They have nice balance too, but are more pass-happy with QB Noah Fifita, who has thrown for 2,200 yards and 23 touchdowns while also rushing for three scores.

Cincinnati went for 59 combined points with Utah, 61 with Baylor and 66 with Oklahoma State in its last three games.  This total of 56 is pretty low for a game involving two great Big 12 offenses that both like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +10.5

This line has gone up since I released Pitt +10.5 on Sunday.  It has gone up because of Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi's comments about not caring if he lost this game by 100 because winning the ACC is what matters most.  While he is correct, I think it's a smoke screen.  The Panthers would love nothing more than to win this game and knock Notre Dame out of the 12-team playoff.  I think they have the goods to compete, too.

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB, and the defense has been great all season under Narduzzi.  The Panthers rank 24th in the country in total defense at 318.1 yards per game and 16th at 4.7 yards per play allow.  But what particularly stands out for this matchup is Pitt's run defense, which ranks 3rd in the country allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game and 1st at 2.4 yards per carry.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be effective, and this will be its toughest test of the season against this top-ranked Pitt Run D.  That at least gives the Panthers a chance to hang in this game, forcing freshman QB CJ Carr to try and beat them through the air.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense that will give Carr some problems.

Notre Dame is overvalued off a 49-10 home win over Navy, which was playing without starting QB Blake Horvath and had not chance of keeping it competitive without him.  The Fighting Irish only beat Boston College 25-10 as 31-point favorites in their last road game.  That's a BC team that is 1-9 this season with six consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  If BC can hang, Pitt can surely hang as well.  The Panthers are coming off their bye week so they will be fresh and ready to go with two full weeks to prepare to beat Notre Dame.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 55

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB.  The Panthers really profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 25th in the country in tempo which is key to their offense finding its rhythm and keeping opposing defenses off balance.  This is a low total for a game involving the Panthers as they have gone for 55 or more combined points in eight of their nine games this season with the only exception being against Syracuse and its backup QB.

Notre Dame also profiles as an OVER team going 5-4 OVER in all games this season finishing with 58 or more combined points in five of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish won't have as much success running the ball against this stout Pitt run D, so they will have to throw more than usual with CJ Carr.  He is handling it well completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,275 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.1 per attempt.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense, which allows for explosive plays over the top.  I think this will be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Charlotte OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this matchup between UTSA and Charlotte Saturday afternoon.  UTSA is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  Charlotte is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

Charlotte has allowed 48 points or more in four of its last five games with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The 49ers rank 134th out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 38.4 points pre game and 135th in total defense at 470 yards per game.

UTSA's defense has allowed 55 points in two of its last three games to North Texas and South Florida.  The Miners are way down defensively this season, but they have a very good offense that recently hung 61 points on Rice and 48 points and 523 yards on Tulane.  The Miners will hang a big number on this Charlotte defense Saturday, and as we've seen Charlotte's offense keeps coming late in games no matter the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* USF/Navy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all seven games, and 65 or more in five of their last six.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.2 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 50.2 points per game, 554 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points so they can make the 12-team playoff.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26, North Texas 63-36 and UTSA 55-23 in recent weeks.

Navy is 7-2 OVER in all games this season with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Starting QB Blake Horvath sat out the Notre Dame game last week so he'd be more healthy for this game against South Florida, which is for 1st place in the AAC with not only conference championship implications, but also 12-team playoff implications.

Horvath means everything to this Navy offense.  He is completing 64.2% of his passes for 1,143 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 926 yards and 13 TD.  He is going to go down as one of the best QB's in Navy history, and I think he has the goods to try and match USF score for score.

This Navy defense is a problem.  They just allowed 49 points and 502 total yards to Notre Dame last week.  They are a tired defense playing for a 4th consecutive week after also having to face up-tempo offenses in North Texas an FAU the last two weeks.  I think Notre Dame softened them up with their physical style last week, and USF is going to be able to score at will on them.  With USF playing from in front and keeping the foot on the gas, Navy will have no choice but to play faster on offense to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Minnesota/Oregon FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Oregon is coming off a pair of low-scoring, rain games against two similar opponents to Minnesota.  The Ducks won 21-7 at home against Wisconsin for 28 combined points, and 18-16 at Iowa for 34 combined points.  There is a good chance of rain for this game at home against Minnesota tonight, and either way I think this game stays UNDER the 44.5-point total.

Oregon has some key injuries at receiver that are limiting their offense which is the biggest reason they only managed 21 points on Wisconsin and 18 on Iowa.  The Ducks have only averaged 20 pass attempts in those two games and they will keep it on the ground here after averaging 40.5 rush attempts in those two games.

The Ducks also have no motivation to run up the score and keep scoring late into the 4th quarter.  We've seen them call off the dogs several times already this season.  They know they just have to survive and advance as winning out would get them into the 12-team playoff.  They also have USC on deck next week so they don't want to show too much here.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team with a terrible offense and solid defense.  Iowa and Ohio State both held Minnesota to just 3 points this season, and I would be surprised if Minnesota reached 10 points in this game.  The Golden Gophers rank 121st in total offense at 313.1 yards per game and 124th in rushing at 109.8 yards per game.  They will be up against an Oregon defense that ranks 3rd in the country at 239.3 yards per game, 3rd at 4.0 yards per play and 28th at 113.2 rushing yards per game.

Minnesota can at least keep Oregon somewhat in check with a defense that ranks 20th in the country at 311.6 yards per game and 21st at 108.1 rushing yards per game.  The Golden Gophers and their opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season, including 44 or fewer in five of them.  This feels like something in the neighborhood of a 28-7 final.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry offensively.  Minnesota ranks 118th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds, while Oregon ranks 101st at 27.7 seconds in between snaps.  This game will slow down to a crawl in the 4th quarter with Oregon blowing out Minnesota and both teams just looking to get out of there.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA ML +100

Nebraska just had its hopes of making the 12-team playoff come to an end last week with a 21-17 home loss to USC.  The Huskers also lost star QB Dylan Raiola to a season-ending injury in the process.  I think there will be a hangover effect from that dream-crushing loss, and the Huskers will suffer a big drop off in QB play to the backup.

Nebraska is a tired team as it is playing for a 6th consecutive week here.  The injuries are starting to mount up everywhere.  The Huskers were last seen on the road getting upset 24-6 at Minnesota.  That loss looks even worse now after Minnesota went on to get blown out by everyone, including a 41-3 loss to Iowa.  This will only be the 3rd true road game for the Huskers this season.  They also escaped with a 3-point win at fraud Maryland.

UCLA is in the much better spot.  The Bruins are coming off their bye week and they have shown they will play hard for their interim head coach.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland before getting blasted at Indiana in their final game going into their bye week.  Everyone is getting blasted by Indiana, so I'm willing to throw that result out.

UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is completing 63.2% of his passes with 10 TD passes while also rushing for 388 yards and 4 scores.  He is the much better QB in this matchup, and he will lead his team to a victory here against a tired, deflated Nebraska team with a backup QB.  Bet UCLA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* LSU/Alabama ABC No-Brainer on Alabama -9

LSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Not even firing Brian Kelly will save them as they are a program in shambles right now.  The Tigers have lost all their step up games to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss and a 49-25 blowout home loss to Texas A&M last time out.  It won't get any easier for them this week against Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been on a mission since losing to Florida State in the opener.  They have delivered going 7-0 SU with road wins over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 17, Vanderbilt by 16 and Wisconsin by 24.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant at home this season going 4-0 ATS, and they will have a huge home-field advantage for this rivalry game at night in Tuscaloosa.

LSU remains without its defensive leader this week in LB Whit Weeks.  This defense has been shredded without him allowing 31 points and 399 yards to Vanderbilt and 49 points and 426 yards to Texas A&M. You can just imagine what this Alabama offense is going to do to them this week.  Ty Simpson has a 20-to-1 TD/INT ratio and is among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.  You would be hard-pressed to find a better QB in the country than Simpson.

Alabama is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS in its last 14 meetings with LSU.  That includes a 42-13 road win last season as 3-point favorites and a 42-28 home win the year prior as 3-point favorites.  The Crimson Tide will win this game by double-digits.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +3

Florida had its 'all in' performance last week in a 24-20 loss to Georgia in their biggest rivalry.  It was their first game with an interim head coach since firing Billy Napier.  Now I expect the Gators to fall flat on their faces this week as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat Kentucky as they were to beat Georgia.  Most of these players are just ready for this season to be over.

The Gators will be without two of their best receivers for this game so their offense will continue to struggle.  Both Eugene Wilson III and Dallas Wilson are out, and 13 players in all are listed as out for this one.  The Gators rank 107th in scoring offense at 22.1 points per game this season.

Kentucky has put up great numbers in three consecutive weeks.  The Wildcats were finally rewarded with a 10-3 win as 11-point road dogs at Auburn last week.  They held the Tigers to just 241 total yards on 71 plays in the win.  That followed up two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued.  They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards.  They lost 56-34 to Tennessee two weeks ago despite only getting outgained by 28 yards.

This is a game the Wildcats know they can win as well and I fully expect them to take advantage.  They take this rivalry much more seriously than Florida does, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Sitting at 3-5 on the season, the Wildcats have a great chance to still make a bowl game if they win this game because they have Tennessee Tech on deck next week.  They are much more concerned with making a bowl game than Florida is at this point.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia State/Coastal Carolina OVER 57.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday when Georgia State takes on Coastal Carolina in a Sun Belt showdown.  Georgia State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 69, 65 and 61 combined points.  Coastal Carolina is 2-0 OVER in its last two games finishing with 71 and 82 combined points.

Coastal Carolina ranks 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.9 seconds.  The Chanticleers have really turned it up offensively in their last two games putting up 45 points on Appalachian State and 44 on Marshall.

Georgia State also plays faster than average ranking 57th in tempo snapping it every 25.9 seconds.  The Panthers have been playing much better offensively here down the stretch putting up 20 points and 381 yards on App State, 24 points and 444 yards on Georgia Southern and 31 points and 440 yards on South Alabama in its last three games coming in.  The switch to QB Cam Brown has made the difference.  He has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 275 yards and 3 scores.

Both offenses should have their way against two of the worst defenses in the country.  Georgia State ranks 135th out of 136 teams allowing 40.8 points per game, 123rd in total defense at 452.6 yards per game and 127th at 6.5 yards per play.  Coastal Carolina ranks 95th in scoring defense at 28.1 points per game and 104th in total defense at 412.5 yards per game.  Both are dreadful against the run with Coastal ranking 122nd allowing 192.6 rushing yards per game and Georgia State at 130th allowing 205 rushing yards per game.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 75, 65 and 82 points on the three OVERS.  The 75-point effort came last year.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Missouri ABC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7

It's time to 'sell high' on Texas A&M after a 8-0 start to the season.  The Aggies are ranked 3rd in the playoff ranking, and with that ranking and record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  The Aggies should not be 7-point road favorites over the Missouri Tigers in this one.

Missouri is 6-2 this season with its only two losses coming by 3 to Alabama at home and by 7 to Vanderbilt on the road.  The Tigers actually outgained the Crimson Tide and they outgained the Commodores by 111 yards.  They could easily be 8-0, too.

This line has been adjusted too much for the loss of QB Beau Pribula.  I like what I saw from backup QB Matt Zollers, who took over for Pribula against Vanderbilt.  He went 14-of-23 passing for 138 yards and a TD in relief.  Now Zollers has had two full weeks to get ready to face Texas A&M as the Tigers are coming off their bye week.

There really isn't a big difference between these teams when you look at the numbers.  Texas A&M averages 459.2 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense while allowing 321.5 yards per game and 5.1 per play on defense.  The Aggies outgain their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.

Missouri averages 473.4 yards per game and 6.1 per play on offense and allows 245.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense.  The Tigers actually have better numbers, outgaining opponents by 228 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  This is the Tigers' last stand if they want to make the 12-team playoff as a win over Texas A&M would go a long way in helping them.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/TCU OVER 56.5

Iowa State's defense is decimated with injuries, but the Cyclones still have one of the better offenses in the Big 12.  Their current status has them as a dead nuts OVER team right now, and that has played out in recent weeks.

The Cyclones went for 68 combined points with Cincinnati in a 38-30 loss and 68 combined points with BYU in a 41-27 loss.  Maybe even more concerning was the fact that they gave up 467 total yards to an Arizona State team last week that was playing without its starting QB (Leavitt) and arguably the best WR in the country (Tyson).

Now the Cyclones have to go up against a TCU offense that is one of the best in the country, and also a TCU offense that has had two weeks to prepare to take advantage of their defense that is missing three of its top cornerbacks in the secondary.  Expect a pass-happy approach.

The Horned Frogs rank 27th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds and I wouldn't be surprised to see them ramp it up even more this week to try and take advantage of this depleted ISU defense.  TCU ranks 31st in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 34th averaging 6.2 yards per play.  Josh Hoover has thrown for 2,371 yards at 8.3 per attempt with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio.

This Iowa State offense is still nearly fully healthy and can keep up with TCU in a shootout.  The Cyclones average 408.1 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  Rocco Becht has thrown for 2,119 yards while averaging 7.8 per attempt and accounting for 19 total TD's.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Iowa State and TCU finishing with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points in the four overs.  This total of 56.5 is pretty short given the state of Iowa State's defense right now.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Arizona ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57

Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall while finishing with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games finishing with 59 or more combined points in all three games.  This total of 57 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Kansas ranks 51st in scoring at 31.3 points per game and 46th at 6.1 yards per play on offense.  Arizona averages 34.1 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.  These are two elite offenses that will have their way with two suspect defenses.

Arizona has allowed 31 or more points in three of its last five games with the only exceptions being against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Colorado and Oklahoma State.  Kansas has allowed 37 or more points in four of its last seven games with the only exceptions being against three of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State, UCF and WVU.

Both QB's are lighting it up this season.  Kansas' Jalon Daniels has a 20-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season, while Noah Fifita has a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Duke/UConn OVER 63.5

Both Duke and UConn are dead nuts OVER teams that are all offense and no defense.   Both have two of the best QB's in the country, and both of those QB's should shred these suspect defenses today.

Duke ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  The Blue Devils rank 25th in scoring at 35.4 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 460.2 yards per game and 15th at 6.9 yards per play.  QB Darian Mensah is completing 69.7% of his passes for 2,572 yards with a 21-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

UConn is scoring 36.9 points per game while ranking 26th in total offense at 455.6 yards per game and 19th at 6.7 yards per play.  Joe Fagnano is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,529 yards with a 22-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

Duke's defense ranks 109th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  UConn's defense ranks 94th allowing 391.7 yards per game.  Duke is 6-2 OVER this season finishing with 61 or more combined points in six of its eight games.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 46-45 shootout win over Clemson for 91 combined points.  UConn is 6-3 OVER in its nine games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points six times.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +6.5

The forecast will favor the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday.  Temps will be around 40 with over a 50% chance of rain throughout the game including a 100% chance in the beginning.  That will chew up the field and help slow down the speed of the Oregon Ducks.  The Hawkeyes have them right where they want them this week given the forecast.

We saw Oregon struggle with similar weather last time out only winning 21-7 at home against Wisconsin as 31-point favorites.  That's the same Wisconsin team that Iowa blasted 37-0 on the road a few weeks ago as part of a great run for the Hawkeyes.

Indeed, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall beating Minnesota 41-3 as 7.5-point home favorites, beating Penn State 25-24, winning at Rutgers 38-28 as 2-point favorites and crushing UMass 47-7 as 35-point home favorites.  But perhaps the most impressive performance was the loss.  Iowa only lost 20-15 as 9-point home dogs to Indiana, the same Indiana team that went into Oregon and won 30-20 and dominated the Ducks.  Iowa came closer to beating Indiana than any team has all season, and that was also a home game.

Iowa is 21-2 SU in its last 23 November games and 17-3 SU at Kinnick Stadium in November since 2015.  Iowa City is one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for the Ducks here.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/FAU OVER 64

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this AAC showdown Saturday in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend.  Florida Atlantic ranks 1st in tempo snapping the ball every 20.8 seconds while Tulsa ranks 5th snapping it every 21.8 seconds.  So this is a matchup of two Top 5 tempo teams and there should be a ton of possessions and more chances for points as a result.

Tulsa lost 41-27 for 68 combined points against East Carolina and 38-37 to Temple for 75 points in its last two games coming in.  FAU is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 70 combined points with Florida A&M, 71 with Memphis, 86 with Rice, 66 with FIU and 74 with Navy.  This total of 64 isn't that high for a game involving these two teams.

Both defenses are a disaster.  FAU ranks 131st in scoring defense allowing 36.2 points per game and 102nd allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Tulsa ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 29.6 points per game and 107th in total defense allowing 415.5 yards per play.  Both offenses should have their way with these two suspect defenses that will get worn down in the 2H due to the pace of both offenses.  

The forecast will also wear down both defenses.  Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit wins and only a 5% chance of precipitation, so the conditions look great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Charlotte/ECU OVER 56.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team due to ranking 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds.  The Pirates won 41-27 against Tulsa for 68 combined points and 45-14 over Temple for 59 combined points in their last two games.

The Pirates are hitting on all cylinders offensively going for 41 points and 568 total yards against Tulsa and 45 points and 614 total yards against a decent Temple defense in tough weather conditions last week.  You can just imagine what they are going to do to this piss poor Charlotte defense this week.

The 49ers rank 133rd out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 37.2 points per game, 135th at 477.9 yards per game and 132nd at 6.7 yards per play.  They are yielded 54 to North Texas, 49 to Temple and 54 to USF in three of their last four games coming in.  They went for 74 combined points with UNT, 63 with Temple and 80 with USF.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall due to their poor defense.  

Charlotte will do enough offensively to contribute to this total as they will keep coming late in the game no matter the score, which they have shown.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Texas Tech ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech -10

Texas Tech is a real contender while BYU is a fraud.  That will play out this week as Texas Tech buries BYU to hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.  College Game Day will be in Lubbock and it will be one of the best home-field advantages of the season for any team.

BYU is one of the most fraudulent teams in the country.  The Cougars are nowhere near as good as their 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS record would indicate.  They are 3-0 in coin flip games beating Colorado by 3, Utah by 3 and Arizona in OT.  This is where their luck runs out.

BYU got lucky to recover its own fumble to force OT against Arizona before winning.  BYU had no business beating Utah when you look at the numbers.  The Utes has 470 total yards while the Cougars had just 368 total yards, outgaining them by 102 yards.  It was just another example of just how fortunate they have been this season to remain unbeaten.

Then last time out, the Cougars trailed the Cyclones by double-digits before one of the worst INT's I've ever seen turned that game around.  The Cougars had a pick-6 later on in the game that also changed the tide.  BYU won by 14 despite giving up 495 total yards to Iowa State and getting outgained by 85 yards.  They were +3 in turnovers.

Texas Tech is the most complete team they will have faced yet.  The Red Raiders are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road in the final seconds against what was at the time a healthy Arizona State team, 26-22.  The Red Raiders have blown out everyone else as their eight wins have all come by 23 points or more.  That includes road wins over Utah by 24, Houston by 24 and Kansas state by 23.

The Red Raiders are 5-0 at home this season scoring 51.6 points per game and allowing 10.4 points per game, outscoring opponents by 41.2 points per game.  Their numbers are elite.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 10th in total offense at 492.3 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  They are 5th in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game, 9th in total defense at 271.3 yards per game and 6th at 4.1 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 28 points per game and outgaining them by 221 yards per game and 2.6 yards per play.

BYU averages 433.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense and allows 318.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.  The Cougars are outgaining opponents by 115 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  While impressive, it's a far cry from what Texas Tech is doing.

BYU needs to be able to run the football to be successful on offense because their passing game is below average.  They are 17th in rushing offense but just 88th in passing offense.  Well, they haven't faced a run defense like Texas Tech, which will load the box and stop the run.  The Red Raiders rank 1st in the country allowing just 74.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.4 yards per carry.  This is just a complete mismatch.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Georgia/Mississippi State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +9.5

Mississippi State has been undervalued all season going 8-1 ATS in its nine games.  The only non-cover came on the road to Texas A&M in what was a 7-3 game late in the 3rd quarter.  What they've done at home has been the most impressive upsetting Arizona State, and taking both Tennessee and Texas to OT.  Getting more than a TD here with Mississippi State at home against Georgia is a great value.

Georgia has been lucky to escape with wins in its three road games.  They needed a late TD and 2-point conversion to force OT against Tennessee, winning 44-41.  They needed help from the refs to beat Auburn 20-10, tacking on a TD int the final seconds to get the cover.  And last week they struggled to get by Florida 24-20 on a neutral as 7-point favorites taking advantage of a injury-depleted Gators team with an interim head coach.  Their luck may run out this week.

If you don't count the late TD they tacked on against Auburn, Georgia would have played in five one-score games in their six SEC games this season.  The fact of the matter is the Bulldogs just aren't as dominant anymore and don't have a stranglehold on the SEC.  A team like Mississippi State can hang with them as they have proven that against similar opponents all season.

There just isn't that much difference between these teams statistically.  Georgia averages 5.9 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 per play on defense, while Mississippi State averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense.  Georgia is only 0.5 yards per play better than Mississippi State.  Asking the Bulldogs to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +10.5

This is the Red Bandana game for Boston College.  It's a game that the Eagles get up for every year, so I'm not concerned about a letdown from them after playing Louisville and Notre Dame the last two weeks.  The Eagles will relish this opportunity to try and knock off SMU, which made the 12-team playoff last year.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season, and that return to health is a big reason they gave two playoff contenders in Louisville and Notre Dame bigger fights than they bargained for.  They only lost by 14 at Louisville as 26-point dogs and by 15 at home to Notre Dame as 31-point dogs.  This is a big step down in class against overrated SMU.

This is also a very tough spot for SMU.  After traveling clear out East in a 13-12 loss to Wake Forest two weeks ago, the Mustangs returned home and pulled the 26-20 (OT) upset win as 10-point dogs against Miami.  They tore the goalposts down and celebrated like they won the National Championship.

Now the Mustangs are in a letdown spot off that win and with Louisville on deck next week, making this a big sandwich spot.  They won't be motivated at all to beat Boston College, and now they will be extremely tired having to travel clear back out East this week.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and won't have much left in the tank.

SMU just has not been impressive on the road this season.  They were in a dog fight with Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite, not coming close to sniffing the cover.  They lost by 11 at TCU and were upset by Wake Forest.  Their win over Clemson comes with an asterisk because Clemson was without starting QB Cade Klubnik due to injury.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose this game outright against a BC team that will be more motivated than they will.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on James Madison/Marshall OVER 54.5

At 7-1 on the season with its only loss on the road to Louisville, James Madison is very much in the running to make the 12-team playoff.  But the Dukes know they need style points while also winning out, and that has been evident in recent games.

James Madison beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points two weeks ago and crushed Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points last week.  The Dukes put up 624 total yards on a very good Old Dominion defense and another 511 total yards on Texas State last week.  They keep scoring late into the 4th quarter and keep piling on the points, and they will do the same if they get a chance against Marshall this week, which is why I like the OVER.

Marshall is a great OVER opponent as well.  The Thundering Herd are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 70 or more points in all five games.  They went for 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with Old Dominion, 77 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina.

Marshall has one of the better QB's in the country that nobody knows about in dual-threat Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.  He is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 418 yards and 4 scores.  But this is a very poor Marshall defense, one that ranks 112th in scoring at 32.5 points per game, 131st at 413.1 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.  James Madison will get 40-plus here, and I trust Del Rio-Wilson and company to do enough to get us this OVER with ease.  

The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, only 5 MPH wind and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Northwestern/USC OVER 49.5

USC is going to come close to covering this total on its own tonight.  The Trojans are scoring 52 points per game, averaging 591 yards per game and 9.3 yards per play at home this season.  This is the best offense of the Lincoln Riley era as the Trojans rank 9th in scoring, 6th in total offense and 1st at 7.6 yards per play overall.  The Trojans have motivation to get style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so they will try to run it up tonight.

Northwestern has faced so many bad offenses and played in a lot of bad weather this season that have kept their games lower-scoring.  Against the only offense that is even close to USC's caliber, they allowed 34 points to Oregon before the Ducks called off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  USC will not be calling off the dogs in this one.  I think Northwestern can get to 14-21 points to contribute to the OVER as well as they have reached at least 14 points in seven consecutive games.  Be the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Northwestern/USC FOX No-Brainer on USC -14

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points in a primetime game on National TV.

The Trojans are scoring 52 points per game, averaging 591 yards per game and 9.3 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 19.3 points pre game, 312.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 33 points per game and outgaining them by 279 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play at home.  That includes an impressive 31-13 home win over Michigan.

Northwestern is overvalued after feasting on an easy schedule in going 4-1 SU in its last five games.  The wins have come against UCLA, ULM, Penn State and Purdue, while the lone loss was on the road at Nebraska by 7.  Against the only team the caliber of USC they have played, they lost 34-14 to Oregon in what was a 34-0 game before the Ducks called off the dogs, allowing the Wildcats to score 14 points in the final minutes of the 4th quarter in a misleading final.

Northwestern ranks 104th in scoring offense at 22.5 points per game and doesn't have the firepower to hang with the Trojans for four quarters.  The Trojans rank 55th in scoring defense allowing 22.4 points per game with the best defense of the Riley era.  This is also the best offense of the Riley era as the Trojans rank 9th in scoring, 6th in total offense and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.  Bet USC Friday.

20* UTSA/USF ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 67

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all six games.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 49 points per game, 574.8 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26 and North Texas 63-36 in recent weeks.

UTSA has gone 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 74 combined points with Rice, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Tulane.  So this total of 67 isn't really that high when you look at recent results for both teams.  UTSA has an elite offense and terrible defense.

The Roadrunners racked up 48 points on a very good Tulane defense last week finishing with 523 total yards in the proces.  QB Owen McCown was near perfect, completing 31-of-33 passes for 370 yards and 4 TD in the win.  He should light up this soft USF defense as well.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.2 points per game, 401.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season to rank 113th, 124th and 103rd in the country in those respective categories defensively.

These teams last met in 2023 and finished with 70 combined points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Georgia Southern/App State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

Georgia Southern is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Eagles are 6-2 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 62 or more combined points in five of their last seven games overall.  The Eagles rank 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.

Appalachian State plays even faster.  The Mountaineers rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.2 seconds.  They have gone 4-2 OVER in their last six games finishing with 60 or more combined points four times.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game, and this total of 61 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 127th allowing 35.4 points per game, 133rd allowing 469 yards per game and 127th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  The Mountaineers should be able to name their number here, and I fully expect the Eagles to be able to keep up in a shootout.

Georgia Southern QB JC French is very comfortable in Clay Helton's offense.  He is completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,677 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 202 yards and five scores.  He should light up a App State defense that allowed 45 points to Coastal Carolina recently.  There will be no wind and no rain in the forecast for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio)/Ohio OVER 49

Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense, the best QB in the MAC and a very leaky defense. This should be a high-scoring game against a Miami Ohio team that looks to have its best offense in years, but also one that has taken a big step back defensively this season.

Ohio has gone 3-2 OVER in its last five games finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games. That includes a 48-21 win over NIU for 69 combined points, and that's a NIU team with one of the worst offenses in the country but a solid defense. They also went for 49 with EMU, 55 with Bowling Green and 77 with Gardner Webb.

This total of 49 is very low for a game involving Ohio. The Bobcats rank 34th in total offense at 434.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play. They rank 120th allowing 6.3 yards per play. Parker Navarro is the best QB in the MAC, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,786 yads with 11 TD while also rushing for 504 yards and 4 TD as a tremendous dual-threat.

Transfer Dequan Finn has been a huge get at the QB position for Miami Ohio. He has thrown for 1,257 yards and 7 TD, while also rushing for 384 yards and 4 TD this season.

Miami Ohio is 5-2 OVER in seven games this season, and that's largely due to their totals being so low based on previous seasons. But the Redhawks went for 74 combined points with Eastern Michigan, 79 with UNLV and 62 with Rutgers. They can keep up in a shootout when they need to, and I think they will need to tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hawaii/San Jose State OVER 57

San Jose State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Spartans are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 59 or more combined points in four of the five.  The only game that went under finished with 55 combined points with Utah State, but that game had 995 total yards combined and easily should have went over the total.

San Jose State ranks 42nd in tempo and 1st in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 64.8% of the time.  That means more clock stoppages and more opportunities for points.  The Spartans average 315 passing yards per game.  They have a terrible defense that allows 6.3 yards per play and 298 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt.

Hawaii ranks 44th in tempo and 3rd in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 62.5% of the time.  So these are two of the top three teams in the country in pass play percentage, so there will be max clock stoppages.  After getting banged up early in the season, Hawaii star QB Micah Alejado is really hitting on all cylinders of late.

Hawaii beat Air Force 44-35 for 79 combined points and Alejado threw for 457 yards.  The Rainbow Warriors beat Utah State 44-26 for 70 combined points as Alejado threw for 413 yards.  And they beat Colorado State 31-19 behind 301 passing yards from Alejado.  He has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio over this three-game stretch, and now he's up against one of the worst secondary's he will face all season.  This game has shootout written all over it.  

The forecast also looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma/Tennessee OVER 55.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all eight games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama two weeks ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 55.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky in their six games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 45.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 510.1 yards per game and average 7.0 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,344 yards with a 18-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama and 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky in their last six games.  They are allowing 36.0 points per game and 445 yards per game in SEC play.

Oklahoma's defense got a lot of hype in the first half of the season, but its numbers were largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses possible.  The Sooners finally played an offense with a pulse last week and lost 34-26 at home to Ole Miss for 60 combined points.  They allowed 431 yards to the Rebels.  Tennessee has a better offense than Ole Miss.

John Mateer is now a month removed from the thumb injury that forced him out of action.  He says he's 100% healthy now, and he is in line for a big performance against this Tennessee defense.  He led the Sooners to 26 points against South Carolina and 26 against Ole Miss the last two games, and I expect him to have one of his best games of the season here as he'll need to to try and keep up with the Vols in a shootout.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Knoxville Saturday night with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +11

With one of the worst offenses in the SEC, the Auburn Tigers just have a knack for playing in close games.  They play up and down to their level of competition.  They have no business being favored by double-digits here against a Kentucky team that is on par with them.

The Tigers rank 99th in scoring offense at 24.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 340.6 yards per game and 111th at 5.1 yards per play.  Each of Auburn's five SEC games to this point were all decided by 10 points or fewer.  They are 1-4 SU in SEC play with their only win coming last week 33-24 at Arkansas only after the Razorbacks handed them the victory with four turnovers including three late and a 49-yard INT return TD to give them the lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the 4th.

Kentucky is coming off two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued.  They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards.  They lost 56-34 to Tennessee last week despite only getting outgained by 28 yards.

What really stands out is how much better this Kentucky offense is playing since its bye three weeks ago.  The Wildcats put up 395 total yards on that vaunted Texas defense and then 476 total yards on Tennessee.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has been impressive, completing 66.5% of his passes with 9 TD's on the season and is getting more comfortable each week.

No doubt Kentucky has the advantage at QB in this one.  And Auburn only averaging 170 passing yards per game, so stopping the run is the key to stopping Auburn.  The Tigers average 171 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Well, the strength of the Kentucky defense is stopping the run as they only allow 132.6 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The weakness of both defenses is their pass D, but only one of these QB's (Boley) is a good passer, and I'll gladly take Kentucky catching double-digits here.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10

Wake Forest is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Demon Deacons are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and even the two losses were impressive.  One came 30-29 to Georgia Tech after their first bye week as 13.5-point dogs.  That's a Georgia Tech team that remains unbeaten this season.  The other was a 10-point loss to NC State, but they led that game 24-17 going into the 2H and were on a short week and ran out of steam in the 2H.

The last two games going into the bye week were very impressive.  They won 30-23 as 5-point dogs at Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies 347 to to 263, or by 84 total yards.  They won 39-14 on the road at Oregon State as 2.5-point favorites, outgaining the Beavers 468 to 309, or by 159 total yards.  They then had another bye week before coming back to upset SMU 13-12 as 4.5-point home dogs last week despite committing five turnovers.  They outgained the Mustangs by 55 yards and put an end to their 20-game ACC winning streak.

So Wake Forest has had two bye weeks already and just had one two weeks ago.  I think it negates the fact that Florida State is coming off its bye week as I don't think the Seminoles will really be that much fresher than the Demon Deacons.  I also question how much Florida State cares to finish out this disastrous season.

The Seminoles are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in ACC play this season with nothing to play for but pride.  They were upset at Virginia as 7-point favorites, were upset at home by Pitt as 10.5-point favorites and were upset at Stanford as 18-point favorites.  QB Thomas Castellanos is coming off a concussion suffered late in that loss to Stanford, and he may not be his usual aggressive self, and his dual-threat ability will be limited.

Wake Forest has a huge advantage on defense in this one.  The Demon Deacons are only allowing 24.8 points per game, 331.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in conference play this season.  Florida State is allowing 32 points per game, 386.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play in conference play.  I'll gladly back the better defense with more to play for catching double-digits in this one.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -5.5

Georgia Tech is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Yellow Jackets have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

NC State will be no match Saturday.  The Wolfpack are 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with one of the worst defenses in the country.  They allowed 36 points and 485 total yards to Notre Dame and 53 points and 509 total yards to Pitt in their last two games coming in.  They won't have much success against Haynes King and this high-powered Georgia Tech offense this week, either.

NC State's offense is potent, but it is much less potent now after losing its biggest playmakers in WR Justin Jolly to injury in last week's blowout loss to Pitt.  Jolly has a team-high 36 receptions for 365 yards and five TD this season.  He was CJ Bailey's go-to guy out of the slot in key 3rd down situations.  Leading rusher Hollywood Smothers (825 yards, 6 TD, 28 receptions, 170 yards) is also questionable for this one.

With a bye on deck next week, Georgia Tech will be fully focused for this one.  I think the Yellow Jackets easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* USC/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on OVER 59

USC is a wagon offensively this season under Lincoln Riley as this is his best offense in his time in Los Angeles.  The Trojans rank 1st in total offense at 530 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 42.4 points per game.  They are also 1st averaging 7.8 yards per play.  They have my vote for best offense in the country.

Nebraska has an improved offense this season with a more pass-happy approach to take advantage of the talents of QB Dylan Raiola.  The Huskers are 38th in scoring at 31.6 points per game.  They will be able to keep up with USC in a shootout Saturday because they are going to be forced to as the Trojans can pretty much name their number.  Both teams are much stronger on offense than defense.

Nebraska is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 57 or more combined points in five of those eight games and 65 or more four times.  The only two exceptions were against two dead nuts under teams in Minnesota and Northwestern, who also have two of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.  This USC offense is going to be by far the best that Nebraska has faced this season.

USC is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those nine games, including 66 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/Ole Miss OVER 54.5

Ole Miss really profiles as an OVER team.  The Rebels rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They also rank 19th in scoring at 37.0 points per game, 11th in total offense at 484.2 yards per game and 24th at 6.5 yards per play.  They'll be up against a South Carolina defense that has taken a big step down from last season with all the talent they lost to the NFL.

We've seen what Ole Miss is capable of against two great defenses the last two weeks.  The Rebels won 34-26 at Oklahoma for 60 combined points and lost 43-35 to Georgia for 78 combined points.  I have no doubt the Rebels will get their points again this week, and South Carolina will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.

The Gamecocks have one of the best QB's in the SEC in La'Norris Sellers who will be game.  Sellers played well in a 29-22 loss to Alabama last week.  He threw for 222 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 67 yards and a score.  I think he is in line for one of his biggest games of the season against an Ole Miss defense that also has taken a big step down from last season with all of the talent lost to the NFL.

The Gamecocks also like to play fast ranking 41st in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game with more opportunities for points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Oxford too with temps in the 50's, no wind and only a 20% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +21

The Michigan Wolverines aren't the team you want to be laying three touchdowns with.  They have a run-heavy offense and they play at a snail's pace.  Those facts alone make it difficult for them to cover these big numbers.

Michigan ranks 19th in run play percentage at 58.7% and 105th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds.  The Wolverines have been held to 24 points or fewer in four consecutive games basically when you take away the breakaway 56-yard TD run against Michigan State when they were just trying to run out the clock last week.  The managed 24 against Washington, 13 against USC and 24 against Wisconsin.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Purdue after six straight losses and five straight non-covers.  This is a team that is going to keep fighting under a first-year head coach in Barry Odom.  They outgained Minnesota and deserve to win, they were pretty even in the stats in their loss to Illinois, and they had control of the game against Rutgers basically the entire way until the final seconds in a 3-point loss.  Their only loss by more than 19 points this season came on the road at Notre Dame.

I like the matchup for Purdue because their defensive weakness is against the pass, but they have held up well against the run.  They allow just 4.0 yards per carry on the season, holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages.  Michigan threw for just 86 yards against Michigan State last week as the passing game continues to struggle.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Kansas State OVER 51.5

This numbers looks too short for how good both of these offenses are playing right now.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout in Manhattan Saturday with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.

Texas Tech has scored at least 34 points in seven of its eight games this season and ranks 5th in the country in scoring at 40.3 points per game.  The Red Raiders get back starting QB Behren Morton for this one, and while there's not a huge difference between him and backup Will Hammond, the offense has more big play potential with his stronger arm.

Kansas State has scored at least 34 points in four consecutive games and is averaging 37.8 points per game during this stretch.  Avery Johnson is playing the best football of his career with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

Texas Tech and Kansas State have combined for at least 52 points in four of their last five meetings and 16 of their last 18 meetings overall.  This total of 51.5 is very short for a game involving these two Big 12 rivals.  Texas Tech ranks 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds despite blowing out most of its opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +7.5

The Kansas State Wildcats remain undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS start this season with losses by 3, 3 and 6 points.  The Wildcats have since gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming by a single point at Baylor on a 52-yard FG as 6-point dogs.  They crushed UCF by 14 as 6-point home favorites, upset TCU by 13 as 3-point home dogs and upset Kansas 42-17 as 3-point road dogs.

The Wildcats had a bye prior to that win over Kansas, so they should still be very fresh for this game against Texas Tech and will be relishing this opportunity to try and knock off a Top 15 opponent.  Avery Johnson is really playing well right now at QB with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

We saw how vulnerable the Red Raiders were in their last road game falling 26-22 at Arizona State as 7-point favorites.  Kansas State is better than Arizona State.  The Red Raiders were outgained 276 to 394 by the Sun Devils, or by 118 yards.  The weakness is this Texas Tech secondary, which allowed 30-of-39 passing for 245 yards to Kansas and 319 passing yards to Sam Leavitt and ASU.  Johnson should have a big game through the air here in likely leading K-State to an upset victory, but we'll take the inflated +7.5 for some extra cushion.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +10.5

Virginia Tech still has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Hokies are showing great value catching double-digits at home to Louisville Saturday.  The Hokies returned from their bye with a 42-34 win over California racking up 476 total yards including 357 rushing, outgaining the Golden Bears by 151 yards.

Now they should still be fresh and know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' to try and beat a Top 25 team here in Louisville.  I think the Cardinals are overvalued since upsetting Miami 24-21 on the road as 10-point dogs two weeks ago as the Hurricanes basically handed them the victory with 4 turnovers.

Louisville came back last week predictably flat in a 38-24 home win over Boston College as 26-point favorites.  That's a Boston College team that is on a 6-game losing streak including home losses to UConn by 15 and Clemson by 31, and a road loss to Pitt by 41 in its previous three games coming in.  It was a bad, bad look for Louisville.

This will be Louisville's first trip to Blacksburg since joining the ACC 11 years ago.  The Cardinals are 0-3 all-time in Blacksburg, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  Their home field is worth more than is being factored into the line here.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Iowa State -5.5

I jumped on Iowa State as soon as I heard that Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt was out.  I got further good news when WR Jordan Tyson was listed as doubtful.  I would still play Iowa State up to -10 given the news.

Leavitt and Tyson are worth more to the point spread than is being factored into this line even at the current number.  I have the downgrade from Leavitt to backup Sims at least 7 points.  Sims hasn't won anywhere he has gone, and he is only averaging 3.7 yards per attempt on his 49 passes and 3.0 yards per carry on his 29 rushes this season.  Tyson may be the best receiver in the country, catching 57 balls for 628 yards and 8 TD this season while single-handedly carrying the Sun Devils to their victory over Texas Tech two games ago.

Tyson was out and Leavitt got hurt in the 2H of their 24-16 home loss to Houston as 7.5-point favorites last week.  They actually trailed that game 24-0 in a misleading final.  Houston's mediocre offense had great success against this ASU defense finishing with 384 total yards despite sitting on the ball in the 2H, or it could have been worse.

Iowa State is a prideful team, and coming off three consecutive Big 12 losses the Cyclones have piss and vinegar running through their blood.  They also want revenge on Arizona State after losing to them in the Big 12 Championship Game last year to cost them a shot at the 12-team playoff.  I expect a big effort from the Cyclones Saturday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with three misleading losses.  They were missing a ton of starters in their 38-30 loss at Cincinnati in which they were only outgained by 9 yards.  They outgained Colorado by 46 yards in a 24-17 road loss in which they were done in by official.  And last week they outgained BYU 495 to 410, or by 85 total yards, but were -3 in turnovers including two interceptions that were both basically 14-point swings.  One pick 6 and one INT deep in BYU territory.

Iowa State got a much-needed bye two weeks ago and returned with a big performance against BYU in a game they had like a 70% post-game win expectancy, the biggest of any team that loss last week.  They are much healthier now and should still be pretty fresh for this one.  Not only are the Sun Devils without their two best players, but they are also a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week after three very physical games against Utah, Texas Tech and Houston.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Texas ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

Vanderbilt really profiles as an UNDER team.  The Commodores rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  Possessions are limited in their games, so points are much harder to come by.

Texas also profiles as an UNDER team with a terrible offense and a great defense.  Texas is 5-3 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 45 or fewer combined points in five of its eight games, including 37 or fewer combined points four times.

Texas ranks 10th in scoring defense at 14.6 points per game, 20th in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 12th at 4.4 yards per play.  But the Longhorns have an underwhelming offense with Arch Manning, who is questionable for this one coming off a concussion.  I'm good with the UNDER whether or not he plays.  The Longhorns rank 78th in total offense at 375.6 yards per game and 75th at 5.6 yards per play.  This is the worst offense of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas.

Vanderbilt is 3-1 UNDER in its four SEC games this season finishing with 38 combined points with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 27 with Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Illinois OVER 62

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 62.8 points per game in those 16 games.  This total of 62 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 27 points in 10 of their last 12 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss, 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss, and 66 with Oregon.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over three weeks ago against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Oregon basically covered the OVER on its own two weeks ago putting up 56 points and 750 total yards against this awful Rutgers defense.  The Scarlet Knights are allowing 30.6 points per game, 425.9 yards per game and a ridiculous 7.7 yards per play, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the country.  But they have a very good offense scoring 31.4 points per game, averaging 426 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.

Illinois is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 67 combined points with Washington, 70 with Purdue, 66 with USC and 73 with Indiana.  The only game that stayed under was against Ohio State in a 34-16 loss for 50 combined points with a 51-point total, but Ohio State has the best defense in the country and is a dead nuts under team.

Like Rutgers, Illinois' offense is way ahead of its defense this season.  The Fighting Illini are scoring 32.9 points per game.  Senior QB Luke Altmyer has been awesome, completing 71.2% of his passes for 2,020 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt despite facing a tough schedule.  He is going to shred this suspect Rutgers defense.

It has been a bad look for this Illinois defense in conference play.  Indeed, the Fighting Illini are allowing 39.6 points per game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big Ten action.  Rutgers is going to be able to keep scoring as it tries to keep up with Illinois in a shootout.  The forecast looks great Saturday with temps approaching 50, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +3.5

I question how much Baylor really wants to finish out the season at this point.  The Bears are coming off consecutive road losses to TCU 42-36 and to Cincinnati 41-20.  The Bears only managed 266 total yards against a mediocre Cincinnati defense last week as their offense finally couldn't make up for one of the worst defenses in the country.

Baylor ranks 120th in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 101st in total defense at 403.1 yards per game.  The Bears are wasting a great QB in Sawyer Robertson, who is forced to try and keep up in shootouts week after week.  Even when they win it's not by margin as they are 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season with a 3-point win in OT against SMU and a 1-point win over Kansas State.  The only two teams they beat by more than 3 points this season were FCS Samford and the worst team in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State.

UCF is improving under first-year head coach Scott Frost.  The Knights are coming off their best performance of the season in a 45-13 win over West Virginia as 6.5-point home favorites.  They had a bye last week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Baylor, which is a huge advantage for teams with a first-year head coach.

UCF had a misleading 20-11 loss at Cincinnati the week prior.  UCF actually outgained Cincinnati 413 to 306, or by 107 total yards.  Holding that Cincinnati offense to just 306 total yards is no joke.  They went on to outgain WVU 578 to 210, or by 368 total yards.  The Knights have a much better defense than they get credit for, and the bye week gives QB Tayven Jackson extra time to overcome some injuries that have plagued him thus far.  

UCF is the better team, period.  The Knights average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.7 yards per play.  The Bears average 6.1 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play.  The Knights are primed for a big effort here and I fully expect them to pull off the upset, but we'll take the +3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Navy/North Texas OVER 65.5

This should be a back-and-forth shootout between two of the best offenses in the country up against two of the worst defenses in the country.  North Texas ranks 18th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  The forecast looks great for a shootout in Denton with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation Saturday.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.

North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 46.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 494.5 yards per game and 17th at 6.8 yards per play.  QB Drew Mestemaker is completing 67.7% of his passes with a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Navy's biggest weakness is against the pass because they don't get to practice against a decent passing game every week.  In their three games against decent passing attacks they allowed 321 passing yards to UAB, 345 to Temple and 381 to Florida Atlantic.  North Texas has a better offense and passing game than all three of those teams.

Navy is 6-1 OVER in all games this season going for 62 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  North Texas is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games finishing with 63 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 69 or more five times.  Both teams have incentive to keep running it up if they get ahead as both are in contention for the 12-team playoff.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy +7

What more does Navy have to do to get some respect? The Midshipmen should not be catching a full touchdown at North Texas this week, and they likely shouldn't be catching any points at all.

After going 10-3 last season, the Midshipmen brought almost everyone back and are off to a 7-0 start this season.  I like the fact that they've failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games coming into this one because it has provided us with some extra line value to back them this week.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas is 7-1 this season but I have not been impressed.  They won by 3 over Western Michigan as 11.5-point road favorites and by 7 as 2.5-point road favorites at Army in OT.  Army is nowhere near as good as Navy, and North Texas was very fortunate to win that game.  Against the only team the caliber of Navy they have faced this season they were crushed 63-36 at home by South Florida as 2.5-point favorites.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet Navy Saturday.

20* Memphis/Rice ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Rice +14

This is a bad spot for the Memphis Tigers.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating South Florida 34-31 in a game that many felt was the AAC Championship Game.  They have a short week while also having to travel clear to Houston to face Rice.  And they have an even bigger game against Tulane on deck that could decide which team makes the AAC Championship Game.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Memphis.

The Tigers could easily have three losses this season and probably should have three losses.  They did lose 31-24 at UAB as 24-point favorites in a clear lookahead spot with USF on deck.  They trailed Arkansas 28-10 late in the 3rd quarter at home before a bevy of Razorbacks blunders allowed them to come back and win 32-31, including a fumble when they were just trying to run out the clock to set up the game-winning FG.  Last week they trailed South Florida 31-17 heading into the 4th quarter before scoring 17 unanswered points to win 34-31, again taking advantage of USF mistakes.  USF outgained Memphis 564 to 450, or by 104 total yards.

Rice returned from a bye last week and upset UConn 37-34 as 10-point home dogs.  That's a UConn team that has been impressive this season.  The Owls used their bye week to really hone in on offensive improvement, and they put forth their best effort of the season racking up 491 total yards on the Huskies.  They rushed for 300 and threw for 191 more on 17-of-22 passing in a completely dominant effort on that side of the football.

Rice QB Chase Jenkins is completing 69.4% of his passes on the season whlie also rushing for 332 yards and four scores.  He is much better than he gets credit for, and this Rice offense should be able to move the ball at will on the ground against a Memphis defense that allowed 219 rushing yards to UAB and 295 to USF the last two weeks.

Memphis QB Brendon Lewis is not 100% and less of a dual-threat now than he was to start the season.  He was knocked out of the UAB and game and questionable all week leading up to the USF game.  Rice has been solid defensively this season allowing 4.4 yards per carry on the ground and 5.7 yards per play overall.  They are holding opponents to 28 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play less than their season averages.

This will be a great atmosphere for a Friday night home game for Rice.  The Owls will be looking at this like their 'national championship game', while the Tigers want to just get in and get out with a win.  I think it will be tough sledding for the Tigers given the sandwich spot on the short week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Rice win this game outright, but getting a full 14 points is a gift.  Bet Rice Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall/Coastal Carolina OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  That has been on display the last four weeks as the Thundering Herd are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.  They beat Middle Tennessee 42-28 for 70 combined points, lost 54-51 to Louisiana for 105 combined points, beat ODU 48-24 for 72 combined points and beat Texas State 40-37 for 77 combined points.

This total of 54.5 is very short for a game involving Marshall.  They have one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 74.4% of his passes for 1,133 yards with a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 348 yards and four scores.  

The Thundering Herd will be able to name their number against a Coastal Carolina defense that ranks 98th in scoring at 28.3 points per game and 109th in total defense at 409.7 yards per game.  The Chanticleers allowed 37 points to App State, 47 to Old Dominion, 38 to ECU and 48 to Virginia.

The Chanticleers are 2-1-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 82 points with App State, 54 with ODU and 58 with South Alabama.  The only game that went under came against a dead nuts under team in ULM that plays slow, only runs the ball and had QB injuries.

Coastal Carolina plays at the 31st-fastest tempo in college football.  The Chanticleers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season putting up 45 points on Appalachian State.  They also put up 38 points on South Alabama, and they should keep it rolling tonight against a Marshall defense that ranks 114th in scoring defense at 30.9 points per game, 114th in total defense at 413.6 yards per game and 115th allowing 6.2 yards per play.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* CFB Tuesday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on UTEP +10

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State.  The Owls are 5-2 overall and 3-0 in C-USA play while sitting in 1st place in the conference.  They have benefited from playing the 126th-ranked schedule in the country.

The Owls also benefited from LA Tech's starting QB getting knocked out early in their last home game, and they are coming off a misleading 45-26 win at FIU last week in which they were outgained and allowed a whopping 518 total yards to FIU.  They lost some key defenders to injury in that game, and also their starting QB Odom and starting RB Bennett, who are both listed as questionable to play this week.

While Kennesaw State was watching its roster get decimated by injuries in the win over FIU last Tuesday, UTEP was sitting, resting and watching.  The Miners had a bye last week and will be the fresher, more prepared team tonight as a result.

I was happy to see UTEP finally bench QB Malachi Nelson in their last game, a 35-17 win over Sam Houston State.  They must have felt like they had to start him after paying him in the transfer portal, but they have finally done the right thing and started the much more talented Skyler Locklear in his place.

Locklear went 21-of-26 for 236 yards and 2 TD with 1 INT, while also rushing for 48 yards and two scores in the 35-17 win over Sam Houston State last time out.  The Miners racked up 411 total yards in the win.  Their offense will be much more explosive moving forward, and their defense is one of the most underrated in C-USA.

In fact, the Miners have the much better defense than the Owls in this one.  UTEP only allows 5.1 yards per play on defense including 3.7 yards per rush.  Kennesaw State allows 5.7 yards per play on defense and 4.5 yards per rush.  So we are getting the rested team with the better defense and an improved offense catching double-digits here.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tennessee/Kentucky OVER 54

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six of the eight games.  It should have been 64 or more in all seven games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama last week in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 54 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas and 57 with Alabama in their five games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 44.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 511 yards per game and 19th at 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.6% of his passes for 1,948 yards with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas and 37 points to Alabama in their last five games.

After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  He will have great success against this Tennessee defense that could be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (61 tackles), who is questionable.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +9

The Tennessee Vols have no business being 9-point road favorites over the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend.  The Vols just suffered their 2nd loss of the season 37-20 at Alabama last week, and that loss is likely going to eliminate them not only from SEC title contention, but also playoff contention and they know it.  I think they suffer a 'hangover' here from that defeat.

Kentucky is no pushover, especially at home.  After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  They held Texas to 179 total yards and outgained them by 216 yards in one of the most misleading finals of the season to easily cover as in a 16-13 loss as 12-point dogs

In their other SEC home game, Kentucky only lost 30-23 to Ole Miss as 8.5-point dogs.  This is actually a step down in competition for them as both Texas and Ole Miss are better than Tennessee, and we are getting them as similar 9-point dogs here.  The Wildcats should still be fresh after having a bye two weeks ago, and they will be highly motivated for their first SEC win of the season.

Tennessee has just one win by more than 10 points in its last six meetings with Kentucky.  In their only two road games this season, the Volts are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS with their only win coming in OT by 7 as 7.5-point favorites at Mississippi State.  They also had that 17-point loss at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs.  They may very well lose this game outright as well, but at the very least it should be a one-score game either way.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.