Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-02-24 | TCU v. Baylor -3 | Top | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 94 h 46 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -3 Baylor is exactly the type of team I like to back at this point of the season. They are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate, and they are showing a lot of fight right now trying to make a bowl game late in the season. Baylor has legit road losses to Utah and Iowa State, but the Bears really should be 6-2 this season. Colorado needed a hail mary to force OT to beat them in Boulder, and the other loss came by 6 at home to BYU, which is currently undefeated. Nobody has played BYU tougher than Baylor did. They actually outgained the Cougars 387 to 367 for the game. Sitting at 2-4 on the season after the loss to Iowa State, the Bears could have packed it in going into their bye week. Instead, they have responded with two of their best performances of the season. They crushed Texas Tech 59-35 on the road behind 629 total yards of offense two weeks ago. Last week they beat Oklahoma State 38-28 at home behind another 565 total yards. TCU is 5-3 this season it has come against a much softer schedule than Baylor has played. The five wins have come against Stanford, FCS Long Island, Kansas, Utah without Cam Rising and Texas Tech. They also lost outright to Houston as 16-point favorites, their home loss to UCF looks even worse now, and they lost by 24 to the best team they have faced thus far in SMU. TCU needed a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half to beat Texas Tech by 1 last week. This came after the Red Raiders lost their starting QB to injury as well. And that give these teams a recent common opponent. Baylor just blasted Texas Tech by 24 two weeks ago. No question the Bears are the team playing the better football right now. There is a good chance of wind and rain in this one, and Baylor is by far the superior rushing team with much better balance on offense than TCU. The Horned Frogs only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and Baylor only allows 3.7 yards per carry on defense. Baylor averages 176 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry on offense, while TCU allows 166 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry on defense. Finally, Baylor wants revenge from four consecutive losses to TCU in this head-to-head series, including a couple heartbreakers. I think they have the better team this season and will finally get it done, plus they are at home here where they have played their best football this season. They should be more than 3-point home favorites. Bet Baylor Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Navy -11 v. Rice | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 22 m | Show | |
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Navy -11 The Navy Midshipmen have been an absolute wagon this season going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. But they just lost to Notre Dame last week 51-14 for their first defeat of the season. That misleading final score has the betting public off their scent, and now is the time to 'buy low' on the Midshipmen off that embarrassing loss. Navy isn't eliminated from the 12-team playoff yet, and a big finish could get them in. They still have chances to impress coming up including games against two very good teams in Tulane and Army. But it starts with a rebound this week against a terrible Rice team. The reason that loss to Notre Dame was misleading was because Navy uncharacteristically committed six turnovers that set up a bunch of easy points for the Fighting Irish. Ball security will be at the forefront of their game plan for Rice, and I expect them to execute flawlessly this week. Rice is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS this season and just fired its head coach in Mike Bloomgren, who had taken them to a bowl the last two years. I think this is a program in turmoil now and I don't think they should have fired him. There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team. Rice doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Navy in this one. The Owls were held to 10 points each of the last two weeks, and their lone touchdown last week against Connecticut came on a kickoff return. They rank 109th in scoring offense at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense at 329.6 yards per game. Navy ranks 10th in scoring offense at 40.4 points per game. Rice faced a similar Army team earlier this season and got blasted 37-14. They allowed 288 rushing yards to the Black Knights. Navy will have similar success and win this one going away. Bet Navy Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | UCLA +7 v. Nebraska | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 52 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7 For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point. The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so importanta that they got a bye last week to recover. Now rested and ready to go, I expect a big effort from the Bruins this week at Nebraska. UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State and Rutgers on the road. The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye. I think the spot is terrible for Nebraska. After losing 56-7 at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska showed some great fight last week in nearly upsetting Ohio State in a 21-17 defeat as 25-point road dogs. I think that effort has them overvalued, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice. Their chances of winning the Big Ten are now crushed with three conference losses, and I just don't see them being nearly as motivated to face UCLA as they were to face Ohio State. Nebraska lost 31-24 (OT) at home to Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and only beat Rutgers 14-7 as 7-point favorites in their last two home games. It's not as big of a home-field advantage as it is cracked up to be. The Huskers should not be 7-point home favorites against UCLA here. There is expected to be rain and wind in this game, which will keep scoring suppressed, which also means that each point is worth more so getting +7 is a nice value. The Huskers have cluster injuries in the secondary that UCLA QB Ethan Garbers should be able to take advantage of. The Bruins have one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season. That's really impressive when you consider their strength of schedule. They will stop Nebraska's suspect rushing attack, which averages 126.4 yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. UCLA's ability to compete with Nebraska in the trenches is a big reason they get the cover here and possibly win outright. Bet UCLA Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Florida +17 v. Georgia | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 114 h 23 m | Show |
20* Florida/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Florida +17 Everyone threw Billy Napier under the bus after losing to Miami in the opener. It turns out Miami is one of the best teams in all of college football still unbeaten on the season. The Gators have been undervalued since, especially in recent weeks, and I like what I've seen from this team in their last few games. I think they can hang with Georgia in 'The World's Largest Cocktail Party' Saturday as a result. Florida is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games. It started with a 45-28 win at Mississippi State in which the Gators racked up 503 total yards. They came back from their bye week and topped UCF 24-13 as 1-point home dogs. They held a high-powered UCF offense to just 273 total yards. They lost 23-17 (OT) as 14-point dogs at Tennessee and deserved to win that game. They outgained the Vols 361 to 312 for the game, again shutting down another high-powered offense defensively. The Gators were impressive last time out not letting that loss to Tennessee beat them twice. They responded with their most complete performance of the season, crushing Kentucky 48-20 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining them 476 to 309 for the game. Freshman sensation DJ Lagway took over at QB for good against Kentucky and threw for 259 yards on only 14 attempts, while also rushing for 46 yards on 10 carries. He gives them a dual-threat option that Georgia will have to prepare for. The Bulldogs did not handle their games against other dual-threat QB's well this season, losing outright to Alabama and failing to cover against Auburn. I think this line is inflated because Georgia won outright 30-15 at Texas in their last game to hand the Longhorns their lone loss this season. They were 'fat and happy' going into their bye week after making that statement. But keep in mind Georgia was 0-5 ATS in its previous five games consistently overvalued week after week. And the Bulldogs are back to being overvalued this week as 17-point favorites against a feisty Gators team. Bet Florida Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | North Carolina -130 v. Florida State | Top | 35-11 | Win | 100 | 62 h 59 m | Show |
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina ML -130 The UNC Tar Heels received a much-needed bye two weeks ago. They entered on a four-game losing streak with several close losses to Georgia Tech, Pitt and Duke. They could have easily packed it in, instead they responded with their best performance of the season coming out of their bye, and I like the outlook of this team moving forward. North Carolina crushed Virginia 41-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs last week. They racked up 428 total yards and held the Cavaliers to just 288 total yards, outgaining them by 140 yards. I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tar Heels, who are 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS through eight games this season. The Florida State Seminoles are in the midst of a lost season sitting at 1-7 SU and their lone win was a fluky one against California in which they were outgained 404 to 284 for the game. The market just cannot adjust for how poor this team is this season going from undefeated last year to now 1-7 this year. I question how much they care about finishing this season strong. I think Florida State's 'all in' effort came last week against rival Miami and they came up short, losing 36-14 only after scoring a meaningless TD in garbage time in the final seconds. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNC as they were to beat Miami. If anything, they'll be looking ahead to their matchup with another playoff contender in Notre Dame next week. That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them. Florida State's offense is abysmal as they have tried three different quarterbacks and all have struggled. Uiagelelei completed just 53.8% of his passes, Glenn 45.1% and Kromenhoek 42.9%. There's just no answer on their roster. The Seminoles rank 133rd in scoring at 14.9 points per game, 131st in total offense at 272.5 yards per game and 129th at 4.5 yards per play. UNC has another great QB in Jacolby Criswell, who has a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio since taking over and is getting better with each passing game. Omarion Hampton has already rushed for 1,006 yards and 5.6 per carry this season and is one of the best backs in the country. UNC has far and away the superior offense, ranking 30th in scoring at 33.9 points per game and 28th in total offense at 442.4 yards per game. FSU only has a slight edge defensively, but it's not enough to overcome the huge advantage the Tar Heels have on offense. I think the Tar Heels are in the much better frame of mind fighting for a bowl, are the healthier, more rested and more motivated team, and they should be bigger favorites this weekend as a result. Bet North Carolina on the Money Line Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Tulsa v. UAB OVER 57 | Top | 21-59 | Win | 100 | 44 h 58 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/UAB OVER 57 Two fast-paced offenses square off Saturday when Tulsa travels to UAB for this AAC showdown. UAB ranks 25th in tempo at 24.1 seconds between snaps while Tulsa ranks 30th. Both offenses should have plenty of success against two of the worst defenses in the country in this one. UAB ranks 129th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game. The Blazers have allowed at least 32 points in six consecutive games now. They even allowed 32 points to a poor ULM offense and 35 points to a USF offense that was starting a backup QB last time out. Tulsa ranks 122nd in scoring defense allowing 35.9 points per game. The Golden Hurricane have allowed at least 45 points in four of their last six games. They were in a wild 46-45 shootout last week with UTSA, and I expect more of the same here against this UAB team coming off a bye week that should be much sharper offensively this week with several new wrinkles for them. The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday afternoon with temps in the 70's, light winds and zero rain. These are two teams with not much to play for the rest of the way, and these are the type of games I like to bet OVERS in with the care-free attitude both teams will take to the field. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Vanderbilt v. Auburn -6.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -109 | 112 h 40 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -6.5 I've backed Auburn with success in recent weeks and I'm back on them again this week. They are exactly the type of team I like to back. They are much better than their 3-5 record would indicate when you dig into their numbers, and because of their poor record they remain undervalued. Auburn is averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense. The Tigers are outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire country. It's the sign of a team that would be 6-2 or better instead of one that is 3-5 like Auburn. But the Tigers got a much-needed bye three weeks ago after covering in an 18-point loss at Georgia as 21-point closing dogs. They returned from their bye and gave Missouri all they wanted in a 21-17 road loss as closing 3.5-point dogs, which I had them at +4.5 earlier in the week and got the cover. They were the right side the entire game as they led 17-6 in the 4th quarter before giving up 15 unanswered points. Auburn took out its frustration last week in a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky as 2-point underdogs. This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as Auburn racked up 500 total yards on a very good Kentucky defense while giving up just 224 yards, outgaining the Wildcats by nearly 300 yards for the game. While I'm 'buying low' on Auburn because of its poor SU record, I'm 'selling high' on Vanderbilt after a surprising 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season. This has been one of the best Vanderbilt teams in recent memory and it's mostly due to getting New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia at quarterback. But the Commodores are running on fumes right now and so is Pavia. They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and each of their last six games have all gone down to the wire, so they have had no breaks. They lost by 4 to Georgia State, lost by 3 at Missouri, won by 5 over Alabama, won by 7 over Kentucky, won by 10 over Ball State and lost by 3 to Texas. Vanderbilt was 'all in' last week trying to upset Texas at home. It was a 27-24 final as 17-point dogs, but this game was much more of a blowout than the final score showed. Texas outgained Vanderbilt 392 to 269, or by 123 total yards. And the Commodores got a big chunk of those yards on their final drive scoring what was basically a meaningless TD in the final seconds to make a 10-point game a 3-point game. Pavia got injured during the game and actually had to come out before returning. I just don't know how much he has left in the tank, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses part of this game either. The Commodores won't be nearly as motivated to beat Auburn as they were to beat Texas last week, and this looks like the ultimate flat spot for them. I expect Auburn to take control early and to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters. Auburn is a physical running team averaging 5.2 yards per carry with the zone read. The Commodores won't be able to match their physicality, especially since they are playing for a 5th consecutive week after going through a gauntlet. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Northwestern v. Purdue +100 | 26-20 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 24 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue ML +100 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Purdue Boilermakers this week. They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the season and the betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now. But I've seen some 'buy signs' in their last two games, and I love the fact that they are rested and ready to go coming off a much-needed bye week. Purdue played six straight games going into their bye week. Two games ago, they took Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 loss. In their last game going into the bye, they lost 35-0 to Oregon, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. They were only outgained by 120 yards by the Ducks, but they just kept coming up short time and time again in Oregon territory. After a brutal six-game schedule of Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon, the Boilermakers finally get to take a big step down in class here against Northwestern. While the Boilermakers are fresh and much healthier off their bye week, they face a tired, banged-up Northwestern team playing for a 5th consecutive week. The Wildcats showed signs of wearing down in their last two games losing 23-3 at home to Wisconsin and 40-14 at Iowa. They scored both of their touchdowns against Iowa on defense and special teams. They only managed 163 total yards against Iowa and 209 total yards against Wisconsin. They have one of the worst offenses in the country. They rank 123rd in scoring offense at 18.4 points per game and 132nd in total offense at 271.1 yards per game. Bet Purdue on the Money Line Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Stanford v. NC State -9.5 | 28-59 | Win | 100 | 58 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State -9.5 This is a good time to 'buy low' on NC State after starting 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season. The Wolfpack had a bye last week to regroup and make a push to make a bowl game. I fully expect them to come out of their bye week playing their best football of the season. The Wolfpack have shown 'buy' signs in their last two games, and they desperately needed a bye after playing eight consecutive weeks to start the season without a bye. That tough schedule was a big reason for their struggles. Two games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse. But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Freshman QB CJ Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Bailey backed it up last time out, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs. That was a very good Cal defense he shredded, and now Bailey and company take a big step down in class this week against Stanford. Now Stanford is the team that that's tired and beat up right now. The Cardinal will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. Not to mention, they had cross country trips to Syracuse, Clemson and Notre Dame during this stretch, and now they have to fly back across country again here to face a rested, motivated NC State squad. I don't expect it to go well for them. Stanford is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has rarely even been competitive. They lost by 26 at Clemson, by 24 at home to Virginia Tech, by 42 at Notre Dame and by 30 at home to SMU. The only game they were competitive in came last week at home in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest. But they were outgained by 72 yards by the Demon Deacons, who are one of the worst teams in the ACC. The spot really favors a blowout by the rested, motivated Wolfpack at home here. Bet NC State Saturday. |
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11-01-24 | San Diego State +23.5 v. Boise State | Top | 24-56 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
20* San Diego State/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on San Diego State +23.5 The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of love now after a 6-1 start and are the favorites to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff. With that hype comes expectations that are very tough to live up to, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot catching 23.5 points with the San Diego State Aztecs Friday night. The Broncos are coming off their biggest game of the year. They escaped with a 29-24 win at UNLV last week in what was essentially an elimination game for the 12-team playoff. I think they breathe a sigh of relief, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Diego State this week, let alone beat them by 24-plus points. San Diego State is improving rapidly under first-year head coach Sean Lewis. He led the turnaround at Kent State and that program has been dreadful since he left. The Aztecs were competitive in each of their last four games losing by 1 at Central Michigan, beating Hawaii by 3, beating Wyoming by 3 and only losing by 3 to Washington State. That 3-point loss to Washington State last week off their bye week was most impressive. They actually led 26-14 in the 4th quarter against a very good Cougars team. They outgained them 414 to 371 for the game, or by 43 total yards. They won't have any problem getting back up off the mat to face a ranked Boise State team this week. There is expected to be some weather here with a 60% chance of rain and 15 MPH winds in Boise Friday night. The tougher scoring conditions makes each point worth more, and thus it will make it much harder for the Broncos to get margin. They have just two wins by more than 21 points this season and they came against Utah State and FCS Portland State. I think they'll get more of a fight from the Aztecs than they bargained for in this one. Bet San Diego State Friday. |
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10-31-24 | Tulane v. Charlotte +15 | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
15* Tulane/Charlotte ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +15 The Charlotte 49ers had a bye three weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season. They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week. They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17. But that was a very misleading final against Navy. Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD. The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards. Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards. That misleading final was a big reason I backed Charlotte last week as 17-point closing dogs at Memphis. The 49ers gave the Tigers all they wanted in a 33-28 loss. Memphis is just as good as Tulane, and now the 49ers are catching 15 points at home to the Green Wave this week. This value is too good to pass up again. I think it's a tough spot for Tulane, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Green Wave in their last couple games. Two weeks ago they only beat Rice 24-10 as 22.5-point home favorites. Last week they were fortunate to cover in a 45-37 win at North Texas as 7-point favorites. They allowed 525 total yards to the Mean Green, and now they are on a short week here and their defense is gassed. Not to mention there is a lot of travel involved having to return home from Dallas and now flying out to Charlotte, going clear across the country from Saturday to Thursday. They also just clinched bowl eligibility getting to 6-2 this season, so this could be a flat spot for them. Either way, the 49ers are good enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Green Wave. Bet Charlotte Thursday. |
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10-30-24 | Jacksonville State +2.5 v. Liberty | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State +2.5 Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now. The Gamecocks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while outscoring their opponents 203 to 64 in those four games. They have covered the spread by a combined 74.5 points in those four games. Now the Gamecocks come back as underdogs to Liberty tonight, and the wrong team is favored in this game. Liberty is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS and very fortunate to be 5-1 SU. The Flames came into the season as a popular pick to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff. With those expectations come inflated lines that have clearly been tough for them to live up to. The Flames escaped with a 30-24 win at New Mexico State as a 22-point favorite, needed a double-digit comeback to beat East Carolina, only beat FIU 31-24 as 16-point favorites, and also struggled to put away both UTEP and Campbell by margin. It all caught up to the Flames last week as they lost outright 27-24 to Kennesaw State as 26.5-point favorites. Kennesaw State is widely considered the worst team in FBS as a first-year member this season. They previously hadn't won a single game this season before beating Liberty. Now with their playoff hopes dashed, I think it's the type of loss that came beat the Flames twice. I don't expect them to show up this week against Jacksonville State. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks want revenge from a 31-13 loss to the Flames last season and won't have any problem showing up. Plus they want to win the conference and are very live to do it. New Mexico State and Kennesaw State are two common opponents of these teams. Jacksonville State outscored those two teams 117-37, while Liberty only outscored those two teams 54-51. Those results against common opponents show that the Gamecocks are the much superior team this season. Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday. |
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10-29-24 | New Mexico State +9.5 v. Florida International | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
15* CFB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +9.5 New Mexico State has a big rest advantage in this game tonight which is a big reason I'm willing to back one of the worst teams in college football. They are coming off a bye week and last played on October 15th. I've been impressed with some performances by the Aggies this season, not the least of which was their 33-30 win as 12-point dogs to Louisiana Tech last time out. They also took New Mexico to the wire in a 50-40 defeat, and they should have beaten Liberty letting them off the hook late in a 30-24 defeat as 22-point dogs. Florida International will be playing for a 4th straight week and will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days. It has been an ugly look for the Panthers, who have lost three in a row including a 30-21 loss as 7-point favorites at UTEP, handing the Miners their lone win this season. They also lost to Sam Houston State at home last week, and the Bearkats were without starting QB Hunter Watson. Sitting at 2-6 on the season, I question how much the Panthers will be motivated to finish out this season. Their bowl hopes are pretty much shot not. I don't see them getting up to face New Mexico State tonight. This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 43.5 and heavy winds in the forecast. Getting nearly double-digits in low-scoring games is nice value as it is. New Mexico State is the better rushing team averaging 162 rushing yards per game. FIU allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. FIU only averages 104 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry offensively. Bet New Mexico State Tuesday. |
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10-26-24 | San Jose State +5.5 v. Fresno State | 10-33 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 4 m | Show | |
15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +5.5 San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Spartans are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State. That's how close they are to being 7-0. Just looking at the numbers it's easy to see San Jose State is a better team than Fresno State. The Spartans rank 35th in scoring at 32.1 points per game, 50th at 427.7 yards per game and 51st at 6.4 yards per play. They allow 24.4 points per game, 372.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play on the season. Fresno State averages 28.1 points per game, 375.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense. The Bulldogs allow 26.6 points per game, 343 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. They are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game and outgaining them by 0.5 yards per play. The Bulldogs are really trending in the wrong direction right now. They lost 59-14 at UNLV three weeks ago, came back and lost 25-17 at home to Washington State and then were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 win at Nevada when you consider the Wolf Pack lost their starting QB in that game to injury. Nevada and Washington State are common opponents of these two teams, and San Jose State played those two teams much better than Fresno State did. This line should be much closer to PK than 5.5. Bet San Jose State Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Kansas +10.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas +10.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kansas Jayhawks this week. They are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season, but no team has had worse luck in close games than the Jayhawks. In fact, all five of their losses have come by 11 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer. Both wins came in blowout fashion 48-3 over Lindenwood and 42-14 over Houston. It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State, which has gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. The Wildcats beat a bad Oklahoma State team 42-20, snuck by Colorado 31-28 on the road, and took down West Virginia 45-18 on the road thanks to several key injuries for the Mountaineers throughout that game. Kansas State has won 15 straight meetings with Kansas in this rivalry. No question the Jayhawks are looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and they would make their season simply by winning this one game no matter what else happens. That's why it will be easy for them to put the poor start behind them and look ahead to this game, and they started that last week coming back from their bye to crush Houston 42-14 while racking up 467 total yards on what is a very good Cougars defense. Kansas came close to upsetting Kansas State last season losing 31-27 as 7-point home dogs. No question they believe they can hang with the Wildcats, and they should not be catching double-digits here Saturday. The Wildcats only have slightly better numbers than the Jayhawks this season, not numbers that warrant being a double-digit favorite. Bet Kansas Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | LSU v. Texas A&M -140 | Top | 23-38 | Win | 100 | 102 h 45 m | Show |
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M ML -140 The LSU Tigers are starting to get too much respect after wins and covers against Ole Miss and Arkansas the last two weeks. They were in a great spot against Ole Miss coming off their bye while Ole Miss was tired and banged up, and they upset the Rebels at home in OT in a night game in Baton Rouge. Last week they went on the road as 3-point favorites and took down Arkansas by a final of 34-10. This was a very misleading final as the Tigers benefited from being +3 in turnovers with one that set up an easy TD for LSU and another that took points off the board for Arkansas. LSU only averaged 5.5 yards per play while Arkansas averaged 5.6 yards per play. That misleading final is providing us with excellent line value to fade the Tigers this week. Couple that with the fact that Texas A&M failed to cover last week against a pesky Mississippi State team, and we have great line value to back the Aggies this week. Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 34-24 as 21-point road favorites last week. That's the same Mississippi State team that took Georgia to the wire on the road the previous week. The Bulldogs are quickly becoming one of the most undervalued teams in the country since they made the switch at quarterback. Texas A&M handed Missouri its lone loss of the season the game prior winning 41-10 as 2.5-point home favorites. Now back at home behind the 12th man and a night game in College Station, the Aggies will have one of the best home-field advantages in the country. It will be a very hostile atmosphere for LSU, which hasn't faced a road game this tough all season yet. Texas A&M has the better defense in this one holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play while LSU allows 5.8 yards per play. LSU has a slight advantage on offense averaging 6.5 yards per play compared to 6.2 for Texas A&M. The Aggies are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Tigers on the season. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings, so home-field advantage has been huge in this series. A night game in College Station is worth even more. I'll skip the spread and back the Aggies on the money line just to win outright. Bet Texas A&M on the Money Line Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Michigan State +5 v. Michigan | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Michigan State/Michigan BTN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5 The Michigan State Spartans went through the gauntlet to open the season playing for six consecutive weeks that concluded with two games against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon. It's safe to say they needed their bye week to get healthy and regroup two weeks ago. The Spartans came out of their bye and looked like a new team in a 32-20 upset home win over Iowa as 6.5-point underdogs. I backed the Spartans in that game, and it was as easy as it gets. The only reason it stayed close was because the Spartans settled for seven field goals, making six of them. They outgained Iowa 468 to 283 for the game, or by 185 total yards. Gaining 468 yards on that Iowa defense is no small feat. A big reason I was on the Spartans in that game was because they are elite against the run, and Iowa can only run the football. The same can be said for Michigan, which relies heavily on the run like Iowa to move the football. The Wolverines average 180 rushing yards per game compared to just 128 passing yards per game. Well, Michigan State allows just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which is impressive when you consider they have had to play Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa in consecutive weeks. Michigan is 4-3 SU but 1-6 ATS this season and continues to get too much respect from the books on a weekly basis. The Wolverines were 5-point favorites at Illinois last week, and they got upset 21-7 by the Fighting Illini. They weren't impressive in any of their four wins, and two game by exactly 3 points at home over USC and Minnesota. The other two were also at home against Arkansas State by 10 and Fresno State by 20, and that Fresno State game was a lot closer than the final score. The three losses all came by double-digits by 14 at Illinois, by 10 at Washington and by 19 at home to Texas. So the Wolverines have actually been outscored on the season by 7 points total. This team just isn't very good, and they should not be laying more than a FG at home to the Spartans. Bet Michigan State Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Texas Tech v. TCU OVER 66 | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 97 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Texas Tech/TCU FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 66 Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday in Big 12 play when the Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the TCU Horned Frogs. Both offenses have embraced playing fast as TCU ranks 15th in tempo while Texas Tech ranks 24th. There will be more possessions in this game and more points as a result. Texas Tech is coming off a 59-35 loss to Baylor in which conditions weren't great for scoring as it was very windy with a total of just 56.5. They allowed a whopping 629 total yards to the Bears. Three games ago they were in a 44-41 shootout with Cincinnati that saw 85 combined points. I think TCU's result last week against Utah is keeping this total lower than it should be. The Utes have no offense right now with all their injuries, and they play very slow. They beat Utah 13-7 on the road last week. This came a week after a game against a similar Houston team with no offense that stays under the total. When TCU has faced another offense on Texas Tech's level, they have been in high-scoring games. Their previous three games all went OVER the total with a 38-27 win at Kansas and 65 combined points, a 66-42 loss at SMU and 108 combined points and a 35-34 loss to UCF and 69 combined points. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor OVER 64.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64.5 Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team that runs a fast-paced offense and plays zero defense. The Cowboys rank 9th in the country in tempo with 22.7 seconds between snaps on offense. They rank 130th in total defense allowing a whopping 490.6 yards per game. In their last three games the Cowboys allowed 42 points to Kansas State, 38 points to West Virginia and 38 to BYU. Now they are facing a revived Baylor offense that just put up 59 points and 629 total yard on Texas Tech last week. The OVER is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games overall combining for 69 points with Colorado, 62 with BYU, 64 with Iowa State and 94 with Texas Tech. They allowed 35 to Texas Tech, 43 to Iowa State, 34 to BYU and 38 to Colorado, so they have a very poor defense like Oklahoma State. Baylor also plays fast ranking 11th in tempo at 23.0 seconds between snaps, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game with the Cowboys 9th in tempo. Neither team can be expected to get many stops in this one. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, 5 MPH winds and zero precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Northwestern +14 v. Iowa | 14-40 | Loss | -109 | 92 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Northwestern +14 The Iowa Hawkeyes have a terrible offense once again this season and have no business laying two touchdowns to the Northwestern Wildcats. The Hawkeyes are a one-dimensional running team that averages just 136.9 passing yards per game. A big reason I faded Iowa last week with Michigan State is because they were very good against the run, and they beat Iowa 32-20 and shut down their running game. Well, Northwestern has a similar profile. The Wildcats rank 21st in the country against the run allowing 103.4 rushing yards per game and 19th at 3.2 yards per carry allowed. They will force Iowa to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think they're capable. Northwestern just upset Maryland 37-10 as 10.5-point road underdogs in their last road game. They have been a great bet a road underdog for years. They have no home-field advantage so they are consistently overvalued at home, but on the road it's the complete opposite. This has been a closely-contested series with six of the last eight meetings decided by 7 points or less. The Hawkeyes allowed 468 total yards to a very suspect Michigan State offense last week. I think the Wildcats will do enough offensively to stay within this inflated number while shutting down Iowa's offense as well. Bet Northwestern Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Illinois +21.5 v. Oregon | 9-38 | Loss | -109 | 92 h 9 m | Show | |
15* Illinois/Oregon CBS ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +21.5 The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season. This despite facing four ranked teams at the time they played them. They are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football and should not be catching more than 3 touchdowns to Oregon this week. Illinois upset Kansas at home, upset Nebraska on the road and upset Michigan at home. The Fighting Illini were tied 7-7 with Penn State on the road midway through the 3rd quarter before eventually losing 21-7 as 19-point underdogs in their lone defeat. They won't be intimated by Oregon, and they won't go down easily. One of the best-kept secrets in the country is the play of Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, who has an absurd 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season. Bret Bielema has clearly gotten the message to him that if he doesn't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone. He also has two stud receivers in Bryant and Franklin who have combined for 61 receptions, 856 yards and 8 TD this season. While the offense doesn't beat itself, the defense is once again the strength as the Fighting Illini rank 26th in the country in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed despite the tough schedule. I think they'll be able to hold Oregon in check on Saturday to stay within this inflated number. Oregon has been held to 37 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season, and they only have two wins by more than 21 points, which came against Purdue and Oregon State. That 35-0 win over Purdue last week was very misleading as they only outgained the Boilermakers by 121 yards. The Boilermakers simply could not do anything once they got into plus-territory. Oregon relies heavily on Dillon Gabriel and the short passing game to move the football as they only averaging 158 rushing yards per game this season. Well, the forecast is going to make it very difficult to throw the ball with a 90% chance of rain the entire game in Eugene Saturday afternoon. The forecast is going to keep scoring suppressed and it's going to favor the underdog catching 3 touchdowns. Bet Illinois Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Illinois v. Oregon UNDER 55 | 9-38 | Win | 100 | 92 h 9 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Oregon UNDER 55 The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 55 ticket between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Oregon Ducks. There is a 90% chance of rain during the entire game in Eugene. Both teams are going to run the football more than normal, which will keep the clock moving and limit explosive plays. Illinis is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is. The Fighting Illini rank 87th in tempo averaging 27.2 seconds in between snaps. The UNDER is 5-2 in all Illinois games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games. They rank 26th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 18.1 points per game. Oregon is also playing slower than average ranking 80th in the country in tempo at 27 seconds in between snaps. The Ducks only average 158 rushing yards per game compared to 300 passing, so their passing game will be limited by this rain. They are only averaging 4.5 yards per rush as well so that has been a weakness for their offense. This Oregon defense has been more impressive than the offense. Dan Lanning is a defensive guy so it makes sense. The Ducks rank 15th in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game allowed and 17th in total defense at 298 yards per game allowed. Illinois ranks 90th in total offense at 366 yards per game. The UNDER is 3-1 in Oregon's last four games overall with 35, 41 and 47 combined points on the three unders against Purdue, Michigan State and UCLA. The only game that went over was against Ohio State and their elite offense. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | BYU v. Central Florida OVER 55 | Top | 37-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 57 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/UCF OVER 55 UCF is a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 5-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games. The Knights rank 23rd in tempo averaging 24.2 seconds between snaps. There are extra possessions in UCF games, and they will really try to ramp up the pace playing at home Saturday. BYU has also been a dead nuts OVER team this season. The Cougars are 5-2 OVER in all games. They are 3-0 OVER in their last three Big 12 games combining for 73 points with Oklahoma State, 60 points with Arizona and 62 points with Baylor. It should be more of the same here against UCF. BYU ranks 23rd in the country in scoring at 34.9 points per game. UCF ranks 48th at 31.3 points per game, but they are better than that because they are 14th in total offense at 465.6 yards per game and 23rd at 6.6 yards per play. You can run on this BYU defense, and the Knights will have success just like they did against Iowa State last week. The Knights racked up 35 points and 354 rushing yards on Iowa State. I like dual-threat QB Jacurri Brown, who has rushed for 176 yards on 25 carries while averaging 7.0 per carry in two starts this season. BYU just allowed 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma State last week, and that's a Cowboys team that could not run the football at all against anyone previously. The Cougars also have a dual-threat QB in Jake Retzlaff, who has a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 265 yards and two scores while averaging 5.4 per carry. Both defensive coordinators will have their hands full this week. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation. This total should be set in the 60's. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 48.5 | 34-56 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show | |
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple/East Carolina OVER 48.5 The East Carolina Pirates are an absolute mess right now especially defensively. Their performances in their last two games are most concerning. They lost 55-24 at Charlotte two games ago while allowing 517 total yards including 311 rushing. Last week they trailed Army 38-7 in the 4th quarter before scoring 21 points in garbage time to make it a misleading final. They allowed another 295 rushing yards to Army. I question how much this ECU defense has left in the tank after giving up over 600 rushing yards and 100 points in their last two games. The Temple Owls have been a much better team with QB Evan Simon healthy and out there, which he was last week against Tulsa. Simon is completing 65% of his passes for 977 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his four starts this season. I expect Simon to light up this East Carolina defense this week. East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team because they have such a soft defense, plus they play at the 2nd-fastest tempo offensively in the country at 21.0 seconds in between snaps. They should also have plenty of success offensively against a Temple defense that ranks 115th in scoring allowing 32.4 points per game. This total should be set in the 50's at a minimum, and we are getting a discount here on OVER 48.5. The last time these two teams faced off we saw 95 combined points and over 1,100 total yards combined between them. East Carolina would be 4-0 OVER in their last four games with a total this low combining for 73 points with Army, 79 with Charlotte, 50 with UTSA and 59 with Liberty. Temple and its opponents have combined for at least 48 points six of their seven games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Tulane v. North Texas OVER 65.5 | 45-37 | Win | 100 | 92 h 17 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/North Texas OVER 65.5 North Texas is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 68 or more combined points in five of those seven games. They even combined for 61 with a terrible Wyoming offense that plays slow. North Texas ranks 5th in the country in tempo at 21.9 seconds in between snaps on offense. The Mean Green rank 3rd in total offense at 528.0 yards per game and 10th at 7.1 yards per play as well as 9th in scoring at 41.3 points per game. They are very leaky defensively ranking 124th in scoring at 35.7 points per game and 121st at 445.7 yards per game allowed. Tulane will score at will on this North Texas defense. The Green Wave have gone for 41, 45 and 71 points in three of their last four games. They will hang a big number on the Mean Green, but I think this North Texas offense will keep coming as they always do every week. They kept coming last week in a 52-44 loss at Memphis in which they racked up 653 total yards on what was previously a very good Tigers defense. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Charlotte +18.5 v. Memphis | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 89 h 58 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +18.5 The Charlotte 49ers had a bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season. They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week. They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17. But that misleading 51-17 final last week is providing us with some line value to back Charlotte this week as 18.5-point dogs at Memphis. Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD. The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards. Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards. Navy is a common opponent of these two teams as Memphis suffered its only loss to Navy by a final of 56-44. There was nothing fluky about that win as the Midshipmen racked up 566 total yards on Memphis. I just have not been impressed with this Memphis team at all this season, especially in their last four games. Following that upset loss to Navy, Memphis only beat Middle Tennessee 24-7 as 27-point home favorites. That's a MTSU team that has been getting blasted by everyone else. They only won 21-3 on a neutral in Orlando against USF, which was without its starting QB and dealing with the aftermath of the hurricane. And last week Memphis beat North Texas 52-44 as 11-point home favorites. The Tigers were fortunate to win that game against North Texas when you consider they were outgained by 127 yards while allowing a whopping 653 total yards to the Mean Green. I question how much their defense has left in the tank this week. I expect this Charlotte offense to have one of their best games of the season to keep them in this game for four quarters. The 49ers want revenge from a 44-38 (OT) loss to Memphis as 10-point underdogs last season, adding to their motivation. Bet Charlotte Saturday. |
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10-25-24 | Louisville v. Boston College +7 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 36 m | Show |
20* Louisville/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Boston College +7 This is a terrible spot for the Louisville Cardinals. They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are on a short week with travel to boot. Each of their last five games went down to the wire so they have had to put in max effort. I just don't think they'll have much left in the tank Friday night. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are coming off another gut-wrenching 52-45 home loss to Miami last week that pretty much eliminated them from ACC title contention. I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and the Cardinals have no business laying 7 points on the road here given the spot. Not to mention it's a sandwich spot coming off the Miami game and with another huge game at Clemson on deck next week. Boston College will be playing just its 2nd game in 20 days. The Eagles are rested and ready to go. They are also back home where they are 3-0 this season with solid wins over Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and keep in mind they didn't have starting QB Thomas Castellanos for the WKU game. Castellanos is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country. He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 161 yards and a score on the ground. This Louisville defense is really gassed after allowing 52 points to Miami last week, 449 yards to Virginia two weeks ago, 34 points to SMU three weeks ago and 31 points to Notre Dame four weeks ago. I don't think they will have the energy to chase around Castellanos for four quarters. Boston College has a solid defense that will hold Louisville in check. The Eagles allow 20.7 points per game, 351.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Boston College Friday. |
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10-23-24 | Middle Tennessee State v. Jacksonville State -20.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 42 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State -20.5 Jacksonville State has been an absolute wagon in their last three games. They beat Southern Miss 44-7 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State 63-24 as 17-point favorites and New Mexico State 54-13 as 21-point favorites. They have covered the spread in those three games by a combined 73 points and outscored their opponents by a combined 117 points. Now the Gamecocks are off a bye week and ready to run it up on another bad team in Middle Tennessee. I don't mind laying big numbers with teams like Jacksonville State who play at a super fast tempo, which means more possessions. They rank 12th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds. Middle Tennessee has been embarrassing to say the least. The Blue Raiders lost by 28 at home to Western Kentucky, by 28 at home to Duke, by 49 at Ole Miss and by 27 at LA Tech. They also struggled to put away the worst team in college football last week in Kennesaw State in a 14-5 win. To compare, Jacksonville State blasted Kennesaw State 63-24. The Blue Raiders are also in a tough spot playing their 3rd game in 14 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, who are fresh off a bye week and haven't played since October 9th. Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday. |
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10-22-24 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech OVER 50 | 10-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
15* CFB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/LA Tech OVER 50 UTEP and Louisiana Tech both like to play fast on offense which means there will be a lot of possessions in this game and more chances for points. UTEP ranks 23rd in tempo snapping it every 24.2 seconds, while LA Tech ranks 46th in tempo at 25.2 seconds in between snaps. Both teams are coming off two of their best offensive performances of the season. UTEP put up 30 points on FIU last week. The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 121st in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 120th in total defense at 419.9 yards per game. LA Tech put up 30 points on New Mexico State last week after scoring 48 on Middle Tennessee the previous week. But the Bulldogs allowed 33 points to one of the worst offenses in the country in New Mexico State last week. I like QB Evan Bullock, who is their full-time starter now and has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio the last two games. They are forming great chemistry with Bullock, and he should have another big game here. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout here tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with no wind or rain to speak of in Ruston, LA. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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10-19-24 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 43 | 20-48 | Loss | -111 | 115 h 17 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Florida UNDER 43 Both Florida and Kentucky are dead nuts UNDER teams. Both play elite defense and both are lacking on offense. Add to that the fact that there will be double-digit winds in Gainesville Saturday night, and we have the recipe for an ugly, defensive battle in this one. The UNDER is 5-1 in all Kentucky games this season. The Wildcats rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points per game, 117th in total offense at 321.7 yards per game and 109th at 5.1 yards per play. The Wildcats are in no hurry, either, ranking 126th in tempo at 29.9 seconds in between plays. Kentucky ranks 9th in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game and 5th in total defense at 251.5 yards per game allowed. Their defense is always fresh because their offense runs at such a slow pace and tries to control the ball. Kentucky held Georgia to 13 points and Ole Miss to 17 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the country. That's all you need to know about how good this defense really is. I was on Florida last week as +14.5-point underdogs at Tennessee and it was mostly due to their defensive improvement. I was very impressive with Florida only allowing 13 points and 273 total yards to UCF the week prior, including 108 rushing on 40 attempts after UCF came into that game as one of the top rushing teams in the country. The Gators followed it up with an even more impressive defensive effort at Tennessee, allowing just 312 total yards including 143 rushing on 43 attempts to the Vols, who had previously been one of the top overall offenses in the country. They deserved to win that game. Unfortunately for Florida, starting QB Graham Mertz got injured in that Tennessee game and now will be out for this game. That leaves the offense to freshman DJ Lagway, who adds a dual-threat element to their offense, but isn't near the passer that Mertz was. The Gators are going to have to be more of a one-dimensional running team moving forward with Lagway, and that makes them even more of an UNDER team. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 44, 37, 42 and 47 combined points. As you can see, this has been a very low-scoring series, and it figures to continue to be that way given all the factors heading into this game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Iowa v. Michigan State +6.5 | Top | 20-32 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +6.5 The Michigan State Spartans desperately needed a bye week. They not only played six consecutive weeks, but they finished it by having to play two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and then having to travel to Eugene to face Oregon on a short week on a Friday night. Now the Spartans have been off for the last two weeks and will be fresh for this game against Iowa Saturday night. Bye weeks benefit first-year head coaches more than any, and giving one of the most underrated head coaches in the country in Jonathan Smith extra time to prepare for Iowa is a huge advantage. This is a tough spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes. After traveling to Ohio State and getting blasted two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes came back home and beat Washington 40-16 last week. I think the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect now off that blowout win that was not only misleading, but it was also a terrible spot for Washington. The Huskies were coming off their win over Michigan, and they got their national title revenge. They were flat because of it, and it was an early 9:00 AM body clock game for the Huskies against Iowa last week. Yet Washington still outgained Iowa 393 to 328 for the game. The Hawkeyes had no business scoring 40 points on just 328 total yards, including 108 passing. Iowa is a one-dimensional running team this season. That makes this a great matchup for Michigan State, which has a great defense especially against the run. Despite the tough schedule, the Spartans rank 38th in the country allowing 330.3 yards per game and only 21.0 points per game. They only allow 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. They have what it takes to slow down Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, who is one of the best backs in the country. Michigan State was dreadful last year but still managed to outgain Iowa 349 to 222, or by 127 yards in their meeting as 10-point underdogs in Iowa City. The Spartans are now one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and coming off their bye week they are primed for one of their best performances of the season. It will be good enough to not only cover this 6.5-point spread, but likely win this game outright. Bet Michigan State Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | LSU v. Arkansas +3 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 11 m | Show |
20* LSU/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +3 The Arkansas Razorbacks are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and could easily be 6-0. If they were 6-0, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to LSU. They outgained Oklahoma State 648 to 385 and found a way to lose in OT. They ougtgained Texas A&M 379 to 297 and led in the 4th quarter of a 21-17 defeat. Arkansas has elite numbers this season averaging 485 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 322 yards per game and 5.2 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 163 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play. Based on numbers alone, Arkansas is the better team. LSU averages 460 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense and allows 372 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense. They are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play. And keep in mind the Razorbacks have also played the tougher schedule to this point. After a grueling 19-14 home win over Tennessee, the Razorbacks needed a bye week after playing for a 6th consecutive week. They got that bye last week, and now they have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for LSU. Meanwhile, LSU is coming off a huge OT home win over a short-handed Ole Miss team in which they never led until OT. This is a clear flat spot for the Tigers now feeling fat and happy off that Ole Miss win. Each of the last four meetings between Arkansas and LSU were decided by exactly 3 points, so getting 3 points with the Razorbacks alone is a nice value. But this Arkansas team is one of the most improved in the country and ready to pull the upset at home in what will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night. Bet Arkansas Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Colorado v. Arizona OVER 55.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 25 m | Show |
25* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 55.5 Colorado is a dead nuts OVER team. The Buffaloes have gone OVER the total in three consecutive games combining for 69 points with Baylor, 69 with UCF and 59 with Kansas State. This total of 55.5 is too low for a game against Arizona with perfect weather conditions and a Wildcats team that also profiles as a dead nuts OVER team. The strength of Colorado is their passing game which ranks 8th in the country at 336.3 yards per game while averaging 8.4 per attempt. The weakness of Arizona is their defense, which allows 26.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense as potent as this Colorado outfit. They just allowed 41 points to BYU last week and will be playing for a 4th consecutive week with a tired defense. But Arizona should have plenty of offensive success against Colorado, which allows 24.3 points per game and has given up 31 to Baylor and 31 to Kansas State this season. I'd argue this Arizona offense is the best unit they will have faced this season. The Wildcats average 413.5 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play, including 5.1 yard per carry on the ground and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. This despite playing three of their last four games against elite defenses in BYU, Utah and Kansas State as well as an improved Texas Tech stop unit. Arizona beat Colorado 34-31 for 65 combined points last season with a similar total of 56. They combined for 63 points in 2022 as well. It should be more of the same here as these two offenses combine for 60-plus points Saturday night. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Auburn +4.5 v. Missouri | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 89 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Auburn/Missouri ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +4.5 The Auburn Tigers went through the gauntlet to start the season having to play six consecutive weeks without a bye and closing it with games against Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma and then Georgia. They needed a bye week, and I expect them to come back refreshed and ready to go against Missouri this week as they head into the 2nd half of their season. Due to their 2-4 SU record, the Auburn Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have the numbers of a team that should be 5-1 or 6-0. Auburn ranks 35th in the country at 445 yards per game and 9th at 7.3 yards per play on offense, and 48th in the country at 338 yards per game and 5.0 per play allowed on defense. That's right, they are outgaining teams by 107 yards per game and a whopping 2.3 yards per play despite being 2-4. Costly turnovers and poor execution in short-yardage situations are the culprit, and they worked on those situations over their bye week. Missouri is overrated due to its 5-1 record this season. They beat Boston College 27-21 as 14.5-point home favorites and Vanderbilt 30-27 as 17.5-point home favorites. They finally got exposed losing 41-10 at Texas A&M two weeks ago which was every bit the blowout that the final score showed. They were outgained 512 to 254 by the Aggies, or by 258 yards. Based on the numbers, Auburn is as good as Texas A&M and will expose them again. Auburn has also played the 36th-ranked schedule while Missouri has played the 111th. The competition gets a lot tougher for Missouri moving forward after having another easy game against UMass last week. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Nebraska v. Indiana -6.5 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 88 h 19 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -6.5 The Indiana Hoosiers are the most improved team in the country. They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and would be 6-0 ATS as long as you bet them early in Week 1. When head coach Curt Cignetti accepted the head coaching job, one of his first stops was Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where the Big Ten Championship Game was being played the next day. Cignetti went on Big Ten Network and said, "I figured I had to make this trip up here since we'll be playing in this game next year." His team has exuded that confidence all offseason and during the season, and they believe. The Hoosiers have a great chance to get to 9-0 going into consecutive games against Michigan and Ohio State. The Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play. They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game. That balance is what makes them so tough to tame. But the Hoosiers have been equally impressive on the other side of the football. They rank 14th in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game, 7th in total defense at 255.7 yards per game and 11th at 4.4 yards per play. Nebraska also has a great defense, but they have benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and they haven't faced an offense nearly as potent as Indiana. The Huskers are 5-1 SU this season and have benefited from a very soft schedule with five home games against Rutgers, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP, and their lone road game coming against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue. This will be by far Nebraska's toughest test of the season Saturday afternoon, and I don't expect them to be able to stay within a TD of the Hoosiers. Bet Indiana Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Nebraska v. Indiana OVER 50.5 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 88 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Nebraska/Indiana FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 50.5 The Indiana Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play. They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game. That balance is what makes them so tough to tame. The Indiana Hoosiers are vastly improved on offense this season thanks to having a 5-star QB in Dylan Raiola. He is completing 67% of his passes for 1,358 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio. He leads a Nebraska offense that averaging 28.0 points per game despite playing several games in tough wind conditions, some poor kicking and some poor red zone executioin. Raiola and company are going to be forced to try and keep up with Indiana in a shootout. The Huskers have pretty much held a lead for every second of every game this season and have been able to be methodical on offense. They won't have that luxury this week because Indiana will get its points. This is by far the best offense Nebraska has faced as their first six games have come against Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP with five of those six games coming at home, and their lone road game coming at Purdue. Indiana has good defensive numbers like Nebraska, but that is largely due to the schedule as well having faced Northwestern, Maryland, Charlotte, UCLA, Western Illinois and Florida International. I would argue Nebraska is the best offense they have faced if it's not Maryland. The OVER is 5-0 in Indiana's last five games overall with 55 or more combined points in all five including 65 or more in four of them. This 50.5-point total is very low for a game involving the Hoosiers. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday afternoon with no wind, no rain and temps in the 60's. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Miami-FL v. Louisville OVER 61 | 52-45 | Win | 100 | 88 h 2 m | Show | |
15* Miami/Louisville ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61 The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country and have gone 5-0-1 OVER in all games this season with 62 or more combined points in five consecutive games coming in. Now they are off their bye week and should have even more wrinkles offensively for Louisville this week. Miami ranks 1st in the country in almost all major offensive categories including scoring (47.7 points per game), total offense (583.8 yards per game), yards per play (8.1) and passing offense (400 passing yards per game). QB Cam Ward is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason, throwing for 2,219 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground. Louisville's defense is absolutely gassed right now playing for a 5th consecutive week off four straight games that went down to the wire against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia. They were on the field for 82 plays last week against Virginia and allowed 449 yards to their mediocre offense. They gave up 34 points and 481 total yards to SMU the previous week. They stand very little chance to slowing down this Miami offense this week. Louisville will be forced to try to keep pace in a shootout. The Cardinals have the goods offensively to do just that. They rank 23rd in scoring at 36.2 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 461.8 yards per game and 14th at 7.2 yards per play. Miami's defense was exposed in their last two games giving up 34 points to Virginia Tech and 38 to California, which both have mediocre offenses. This Louisville offense will now be the best the Hurricanes have seen all season. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 69, 81 and 79 combined points. Louisville beat Miami 38-31 on the road last season in a game that saw 956 yards of total offense. It will be more of the same in this meeting, especially with the forecast being perfect for scoring with no wind or rain and temps in the 60's this afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Wake Forest v. Connecticut -118 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -118 | 108 h 25 m | Show |
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn ML -118 The UConn Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country. They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season with their two losses both coming on the road to Maryland and Duke. They rolled FAU 48-14 and Buffalo 47-3 at home before escaping with a 29-20 win over Temple. They were a tired team going into that Temple game playing for a 6th consecutive week, and it was a bit of a letdown spot with Wake Forest on deck. The Huskies got a much-needed bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Wake Forest. No question they will come back highly motivated with this opportunity to play a team from the ACC, albeit one of the worst teams in the conference. The spot is a poor one for Wake Forest. Now it's the Demon Deacons that are the tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week. They lost 41-38 at home to Louisiana, won 34-30 at NC State and then lost 49-14 at home to Clemson. After playing those two games that came down to the wire, you could tell how fatigued they were especially defensively against Clemson. Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to get up for this non-conference game against UConn, and I don't see them being able to do it. UConn wants this one more and is in the better spot to get it. A big reason UConn is so improve this season is thier offense, which averages 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They should be able to get whatever they want offensively against a Wake Forest defense that is one of the worst in the country. The Demon Deacons rank 119th in scoring defense at 34.0 points per game, 127th at 478 yards per game allowed and 120th at 6.5 yards per play. The Demon Deacons don't have their usual potent offense this season largely due to having the embattled Hank Bachmeier at quarterback. They average fewer than 400 yards per game despite playing at the 12th-fasted tempo in college football. I've never been a fan of Bachmeier dating back to his Boise State days. UConn has an improved defense that allows 21.7 points per game, 339 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Huskies will get enough stops to preserve the lead. Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday. |
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10-18-24 | Oregon v. Purdue +28.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
20* Oregon/Purdue FOX No-Brainer on Purdue +28.5 I was waiting for a 28 this week to back Purdue and we finally got it, and an even better 28.5 at Circa which I have released to premium clients as of Thursday. This is a terrible spot for the Oregon Ducks, and I like what I saw from the Boilermakers last week enough to pull the trigger. Oregon is in the flat spot of all flat spots. The Ducks are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, upsetting Ohio State 32-31 at home as 3.5-point underdogs to take a commanding lead in the Big Ten title race. They are fat and happy, and they are primed for a letdown here against Purdue. The Boilermakers switched quarterbacks last week and head coach Ryan Walters took over play-calling duties to try and save his job. It worked wonders as the Boilermakers looked like a new team, taking Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 (OT) loss as 22.5-point road underdogs. Freshman Ryan Browne made his first collegiate start at QB and threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 118 yards against what is a very good Illinois defense. I think Browne gives this team new life, and his dual-threat ability will keep the Boilermakers coming for four quarters against Oregon this week. Walters expressed frustration to his players about media calling out his team for quitting, and they responded. "I just talked to them about, I don't care what you're doing in life, where you're at, what your occupation is. As a man, don't ever let the perception be that you quit when things got tough or that you quit when adversity hits. In life, as in football, adversity is guaranteed. At a bare minimum it should be that you fight" Walters said. Oregon's two road games have been short trips to Corvalis to face Oregon State and to Los Angeles to face UCLA. This should be their toughest road test of the season, especially given the flat spot and the short week. They aren't exactly keeping the foot on the gas offensively scoring 37 or fewer points in five of their six games, and if they don't top that number it's going to be very hard for them to cover this massive 28.5-point spread. Plus, they will likely be without their best pass rusher in Jordan Burch, who suffered a knee injury. Purdue has a bye on deck next week so they should be 'all in' here, plus I'm not worried about them being flat coming off an OT loss to Illinois considering it's a Top 5 Oregon team coming to town. They are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and I think it will be much closer than this 28.5-point spread would indicate. Bet Purdue Friday. |
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10-16-24 | Western Kentucky v. Sam Houston State -2.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 26 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State -2.5 The Sam Houston State Bearkats are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They had a rude awakening in their first season at the FBS level last season, but they are one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2. Sam Houston State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road to UCF. They have four blowout wins all by 18 points or more, plus an impressive 40-39 upset win as 11.5-point underdogs over Texas State, which many felt would win the Sun Belt and possibly make the 12-team playoff this season. Now the Bearkats will be motivated to prove they are a C-USA contender by taking down one of the favorites to win the conference in Western Kentucky tonight. I like this WKU team, but this is a terrible spot for them as the Hilltoppers will be at a big rest disadvantage. Indeed, Sam Houston State is coming off a bye week and last play on October 3rd, while Western Kentucky had to play UTEP on October 10th and only has five days in between games to get ready. I fully expect the Bearkats to put to use this rest and preparation advantage, plus it should be a pretty hostile atmosphere in their favor with fans excited about this team after their 5-1 start. Sam Houston has a big advantage on defense allowing 338 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, while WKU allows 385.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. It's pretty much a toss up offensively with Sam Houston averaging 401 yards per game and 5.5 per play while WKU averages 399 yards per game and 5.8 per play. The big advantages the Bearkats have in rest, preparation, defense and home field should lead them to winning this game by a field goal or more to cover this short 2.5-point spread tonight. Bet Sam Houston State Wednesday. |
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10-12-24 | Boise State v. Hawaii +21.5 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii +21.5 The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of hype right now with a 4-1 start and their lone loss coming to Oregon. RB Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as well. With all this hype comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to, and I'll play against them and side with the value on home underdog Hawaii catching more than three touchdowns as a result. This is a tough spot for Boise State playing for a 4th consecutive week and now having to travel the the island. Their last three games were at home, and now they have to go on the road where they barely beat Georgia Southern 56-45 and lost to Oregon in their other two road games. Hawaii is 2-1 at home this season with a 3-point loss to UCLA in their lone defeat. The Warriors are the much fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before losing 27-24 at San Diego State last week. QB Brayden Schager is coming off his two best games of the season throwing for 374 yards and 4 TD in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa at home and throwing for 272 yards and 3 TD in that loss to San Diego State last week. Hawaii actually has the better defense in this game. The Warriors are only allowing 309.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. They have been very good against the run, allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. That will be key in trying to stop Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack. Boise State's defense leaves a lot to be desired and is the clear weakness of the team. The Broncos allow 402.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. They have been horrible against the pass, allowing 278.8 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt. That makes this a great matchup for the Warriors with their ability to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. They will never be out of this game. Bet Hawaii Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Iowa State v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -105 | 111 h 54 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3 This is a battle for first place in the Big 12 as the 2-0 Iowa State Cyclones visit the 2-0 West Virginia Mountaineers. I think the wrong team is favored here. This is going to be a very hostile atmosphere at night for an 8:00 EST start time, and the Mountaineers are going with their sweet black coal rush jerseys. Iowa State has benefited from a soft schedule during its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. The five wins have come against North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor and Iowa. They have really faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and this will be by far their toughest defensive test of the season against this high-octane WVU offense. The Mountaineers average 6.4 yards pre play, 5.3 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt which are all elite numbers. Iowa State was life and death with Baylor at home last week trailing 21-19 early in the 3rd quarter. The Cyclones needed a big finish to pull away. It cost them a lot of injuries on defense as they were down to two starters on defense at one point in the 2H last week. And these defensive injuries the Cyclones are dealing with aren't getting factored into the spread enough this week. While the Cyclones will be playing for a 4th consecutive week, the Mountaineers just had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week. They made easy work of the Cowboys outgaining them 558 to 225 for the game, or by 333 total yards. They were able to coast in the 2H after jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, and they will still be fresh for this game Saturday as a result. Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule and the losses to Pitt and Penn State don't look so bad now considering those two teams are a combined 10-0. I like the Mountaineers to pull off the upset at home Saturday night. Bet West Virginia Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Ole Miss v. LSU +3.5 | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 110 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Ole Miss/LSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on LSU +3.5 I love the spot for the LSU Tigers this week. They return from their bye, getting two full weeks to rest and prepare to beat the Ole Miss Rebels. This will also be a night game in Baton Rouge, and there's arguably no bigger home-field advantage in all of college football than a night game in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week. The Rebels are coming off two physical games against Kentucky and South Carolina the last two weeks. After getting upset 20-17 by Kentucky as 15.5-point home favorites, they rebounded nicely with a 27-3 win at South Carolina last week. But that was a misleading win against South Carolina. They only outgained the Gamecocks by 112 yards. Their offense pretty much died in the second half after losing star receiver Tre Harris to injury. They scored just 3 points after intermission. Harris means everything to their offense as he leads the nation with 52 receptions for 885 yards and 5 TD. He is doubtful to be back this week, making LSU's task defensively to stop this Ole Miss offense much easier. LSU is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings in Baton Rouge and at least 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings in this series. I fully expect the Tigers to win this game outright given their rest and preparation advantages coming in. Brian Kelly is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in his last 17 home games off a bye. Bet LSU Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Florida +14.5 v. Tennessee | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show | |
15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida +14.5 The Florida Gators have been impressive since a 41-17 loss to Miami in the opener. That loss has kept the Gators undervalued since, and they have responded by going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. The lone loss came to Texas A&M by a final of 33-20, and that loss doesn't look so bad now with A&M blowing out Missouri last week. The Gators won 45-28 at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites following the loss to A&M. They had a bye the next week, then returned last week and beat UCF 24-13 as 1-point home underdogs. That win was mighty impressive from a defensive standpoint as UCF came into that game leading the country in rushing. Florida held UCF to 108 rushing yards on 40 carries and 273 total yards overall. Tennessee has been overvalued since a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule of Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and Oklahoma. The 25-15 win over Oklahoma was far from impressive considering the Sooners were playing with their backup QB and missing almost all of their wide receivers due to injury. They only managed 345 total yards against Oklahoma's defense. Last week, Tennessee was upset 19-14 at Arkansas as 14-point favorites. The Razorbacks outgained the Vols 434 to 334, or by 100 total yards, so there was nothing fluky about it. That's the second straight game Tennessee's offense has been held in check by a respectable defense, and with the way this Florida defense is trending, I think the Gators can hold them in check as well. They will stop the run and force the Vols to try and beat them through the air. Florida hasn't lost by more than 14 points to Tennessee since 1992 which was 32 meetings ago. That makes for a 31-0 system backing the Gators pertaining to this 14.5-point spread. The Gators are 17-2 SU in the last 19 meetings. Bet Florida Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | UTSA v. Rice OVER 50.5 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 72 h 57 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Rice OVER 50.5 UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team that plays fast and plays zero defense. The Roadrunners rank 9th in tempo with 22.6 seconds in between snaps. They rank 110th in scoring defense allowing 31.6 points per game, and they have benefitted from getting to play Holy Cross and Kennesaw State. UTSA's offense got going last time out with 456 total yards against a pretty good East Carolina defense after scoring 45 points on Holy Cross. This is a Rice defense that has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, but still allowed 34 points to Sam Houston State, 33 to Houston and 37 to Army. Rice's offense has been held in check this season due to playing a tough schedule of opposing defenses. They finally got a reprieve last time out and put up 463 total yards against Charlotte with 209 rushing and 254 passing. I like Rice QB EJ Warner, who meant everything to Temple last year, and he should have a big game against this UTSA defense. Rice also plays faster than average ranking 59th in tempo at 26.1 seconds in between snaps. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Mississippi State +34 v. Georgia | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +34 The Georgia Bulldogs are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall since the start of last season. They are a team that gets a lot of hype for what they did in previous seasons winning the national title, and with that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to. Georgia is 1-4 ATS this season and has no business being a 34-point favorite against Mississippi State this week. This is the ultimate sandwich spot coming off three straight tough SEC games against Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn and with an even bigger showdown with Texas on deck on the road next week. They won't be concerned with Mississippi State this week at all. That's going to make it very difficult to cover this 34-point spread. The Bulldogs want to just get in and get out with a win and try and keep everyone healthy for that game against Texas considering injuries and suspensions have been a big part of Georgia's early struggles this season. I like the spot for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are come off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jeff Lebby. He will get the most out of this extra week with his new team. I also like what I saw from the Bulldogs going into their bye week as they only lost 35-13 at Texas as 37-point underdogs. Instead of playing at a break-neck pace like they had prior, they slowed things down with freshman QB Michael Van Buren running the offense. He played well with 144 passing yards on 23 attempts. I think Mississippi State will deploy the same strategy against Georgia, slowing the game down to try and make it competitive. Van Buren is now 19 of 34 passing for 244 yards against Texas and Florida, which are two very good defenses. He won't be phased by Georgia. 24 of the last 25 meetings between Georgia and Mississippi State were decided by 30 points or less, making for a 24-1 system backing the underdog in this one. Bet Mississippi State Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Arizona v. BYU -3.5 | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 50 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Arizona/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on BYU -3.5 The BYU Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with upset road wins over SMU and Baylor, as well as an upset home win over Kansas State. They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against Arizona this week. BYU had a bye last week, so the Cougars have had two full weeks to prepare for Arizona and to rest up and get healthy. Provo is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Cougars will have an even bigger home-field advantage with fans excited about the fact that they are in the Top 25 and a Big 12 title contenter. The spot is much worse for Arizona coming off a pair of physical games at Utah and at home against Texas Tech. They are getting too much love for their win at Utah, which bogged down in the red zone and blew several scoring opportunities. They lost 28-22 at home to Texas Tech last week. These teams have a common opponent that shows BYU is by far the superior team. Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State, while BYU crushed Kansas State 38-9 at home. The Cougars have the much better defense in this one as well. They allow just 15.8 points per game, 292.6 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play. Arizona allows 23.6 points per game, 350.8 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season. Bet BYU Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Louisville v. Virginia +7.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +7.5 The Louisville Cardinals have been through the gauntlet the last three weeks with three straight games that went down to the wire against SMU, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. I question how much they have left in the tank for Virginia this week. The Cavaliers had a bye two weeks ago before returning to beat Boston College 24-14 as 1.5-point home favorites last week. Virginia improved to 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS this season and has been an undervalued commodity. They beat Coastal Carolina 43-24 as 3.5-point road favorites going into their bye, and they beat Wake Forest 31-30 on the road. Even in their lone loss to Maryland it was a misleading 27-13 home loss. They were only outgained by 21 yards in the game. The Terrapins scored 20 unanswered points in the 2H and took advantage of a +4 turnover margin against Virginia. I like the way the Cavaliers responded in their last two games, especially after falling behind 14-0 to Boston College last week to score the final 24 points of the game. They have a lot of confidence now and feel like they are a legit ACC contender. Virginia is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville with only one loss by more than 7 points. The spot really favors the home underdog Cavaliers who are the fresher team. This line should be much closer to PK. Bet Virginia Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | California v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -3 The Pittsburgh Panthers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season. They will eventually be overvalued, but this isn't the spot this week. The Panthers have impressive wins over Cincinnati, West Virginia and North Carolina with two of those wins coming on the road. They just had a bye two weeks ago so they will be fresh and ready to go this week. But this is more of a play against California than it is a play on Pitt. The Bears had ESPN's College Gameday on campus last week with the Miami Hurricanes coming to town. They looked well on their way to an upset victory leading 35-10 in the 3rd quarter, but that's when it all went downhill. The Bears blew that 25-point lead and lost 39-38 on a last-second TD by Miami, which scored the final 21 points of the game in the final 10 minutes to escape with yet another victory. I just don't see how Cal gets back up off the mat after that loss. It's the type of loss that beats a team twice. Now the Bears have the long flight East to Pittsburgh after playing a late-night game that didn't get over until after midnight Pacific time. They have a tired defense that was on the field for 38 minutes and 86 plays against Miami. Now they must face a Pitt offense that runs the 4th-fastest tempo in the entire country. Five-star QB and Alabama transfer Eli Holstein has thrived in this new up-tempo offense. He is competing 65.5% of his passes for 1,567 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 265 yards and 3 scores. The Bears won't have the energy to try and defense this offense, and this one has blowout written all over it. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. |
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10-11-24 | Northwestern v. Maryland OVER 45 | Top | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 44 m | Show |
20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northwestern/Maryland OVER 45 Maryland is a dead nuts OVER team this season. The Terrapins are 4-1 OVER in their five games with 51 or more combined points in four of the five. That includes their 42-28 loss to Indiana last time out that saw 70 combined points. The Terrapins boast an offense that puts up 451.4 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play including 304.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the country. QB Billy Edwards has been better than expected, completing 72.3% of his passes for 1,444 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio. This is a poor Maryland defense that allowed 27 points to Michigan State, 20 to Villanova and 42 to Indiana. Northwestern has taken a step back defensively this season and just found itself in a 41-24 shootout last week against Indiana that saw 65 combined points. QB Lausch has taken over as starting QB and actually gives the Wildcats the threat of the pass. He threw for 243 yards and 2 TD against a very good Indiana defense last week, while also rushing for 34 yards on 9 carries. This has been an OVER series with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 46 or more combined points in all four, and 55 or more in three of them. Conditions look perfect for a shootout Friday night with no wind or rain in the forecast. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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10-05-24 | Hawaii v. San Diego State OVER 46.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 115 h 29 m | Show | |
15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawaii/San Diego State OVER 46.5 San Diego State made a great hire bringing in one of the best offensive minds in the country in former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis. He is the architect of the 'Flash Fast' offense that turned around the Golden Flashes and put their name on the map. It was always going to take some time for these players to get accustomed to this offense, and they weren't done any favors with a brutal schedule to start facing two elite defenses in Oregon State and California in two of their first three games. But they got a bye after those two games and grew a lot on that bye week. They came back last week and had a solid offensive output with 364 total yards against Central Michigan. But they allowed 452 yards to the Chippewas and this is a leaky defense that can be exposed. That game was much lower scoring than it should have been with a 22-21 final, and I think that is providing us some line value on the OVER this week. In fact, these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season, which is why this total has been set so low. We will take advantage. Hawaii also had a tough schedule to start with losses to UCLA and Sam Houston State, which looks vastly improved this season. They finally got their offense going last time out in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa. They put up 528 total yards, and they have had a bye since to get even better. San Diego State beat Hawaii 41-34 in an absolute shootout last year that saw 75 combined points. All we need is 47-plus here to cash this OVER. And a sneaky reason I'm on the OVER is because both offenses play fast. San Diego State ranks 8th in tempo at 22.3 seconds between plays while Hawaii ranks 34th at 24.9 seconds. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Nevada v. San Jose State OVER 48.5 | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/San Jose State OVER 48.5 San Jose State's offense looks vastly improved this season. They just put up 52 points on Washington State in an absolute OT thriller. They now rank 38th in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game. They also play fast ranking 21st in seconds per play, which is an over bettors' dream. Nevada has a much better offense than most expected as well. The Wolf Pack are averaging 379 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. They rush for 193.4 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, and San Jose State allows 155.2 rushing yards per game. They will have success on the ground which will open up their improved passing game. Nevada ranks 94th allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense. San Jose State will keep the pedal to the metal for four quarters, and Nevada will have to try and keep up. Both teams are fresh coming off bye weeks and will be looking to get up and down offensively. This total should not be less than 50 given San Jose State's profile as a prolific, fast-paced offense controlling the tempo playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Michigan v. Washington -145 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
20* Michigan/Washington NBC No-Brainer on Washington ML -145 The Washington Huskies should be 5-0 right now. If they were 5-0 like they should be, they would be bigger favorites here against Michigan. We'll take advantage of this line value and back the Huskies on the Money Line Saturday night. I say Washington should be 5-0 because they lost 24-19 to Washington State on a neutral despite outgaining them 452 to 381, or by 71 total yards. But that fluky loss was nothing compared to what happened against Rutgers on last Friday. Washington lost 21-18 at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299, or by 222 total yards. The Huskies will be looking to take out their frustration on the Wolverines at home in Seattle where it will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night. They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it's even better at night. They also want revenge from losing to Michigan in the National Championship last year. While both teams are down compared to those teams last year, Washington is a lot less down than Michigan is this season. Washington has elite numbers. The Huskies rank 20th in total offense at 469.4 yards per game and 18th at 7.2 yards per play. They rank 10th in total defense at 249.8 yards per game and 8th at 4.1 yards per play. QB Will Rogers is completing 74.8% of his passes for 1,354 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio. While Michigan's defense is solid once again, keep in mind they allowed 31 points to Texas, 24 to Minnesota, 24 to USC and 18 to Arkansas State the last four weeks. They are 1-4 ATS, and while it's partly due to the defense taking a step back, it's mostly due to not having a quarterback or a passing game on offense. The Wolverins rank 130th in the country in passing at 115.4 yards per game. Their one-dimensional approach will not work against Washington, which allows just 3.7 yards per carry this season. The Huskies will stack the box and force QB Alex Orji to try and beat them. Orji is averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt this season. This will be the first road game of the season for the Wolverines as they somehow were allowed to schedule five straight home games to open the season. It will not go well for Orji and the Wolverines in Seattle Saturday night. Bet Washington on the Money Line. |
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10-05-24 | West Virginia +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 112 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4.5 The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers in this one. They are coming off their bye week, while Oklahoma State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and has been through the gauntlet. I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank this week as a result. Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 in OT four weeks ago despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards. They went on the road and beat a bad Tulsa team 45-10 three weeks ago before returning home to face Utah. They trailed 22-3 to the Utes before making it interesting in garbage time in a misleading 22-19 loss. And last week they were crushed 42-20 at Kansas State. Utah and Kansas State both play a physical brand of football that takes a lot out of the opponent. After having to face both those teams in consecutive weeks, I think Oklahoma State is battered and bruised right now and won't be ready for this fresh WVU team. I also just think the Cowboys were grossly overvalued coming into the season and remain overvalued still today. The Cowboys had a miracle run to the Big 12 Championship Game last year winning close game after close game. They have been exposed this season, and really should be 2-3 instead of 3-2 because they should have lost to Arkansas. Now with two Big 12 losses already, their chances of winning the conference title are slim to none. Oklahoma State has no running game on offense, and they have one of the worst defenses in the country. The Cowboys rank 126th in total defense at 480.6 yards per game allowed. West Virginia has played a similarly difficult schedule and has much better numbers than the Cowboys. They lost to Penn State and Pittsburgh before topping Kansas. They had no business losing to Pitt blowing a 10-point lead in the final three minutes. They rebounded nicely against the Jayhawks to give them positive momentum heading into their bye, and they have all their goals in front of them at 1-0 in Big 12 play now. Wrong team favored here. Bet West Virginia Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Auburn +24.5 v. Georgia | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 114 h 31 m | Show | |
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +24.5 Auburn's 2-3 record has them way undervalued right now. The Tigers are certainly one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of college football. Their three losses all came by 10 points or less, and they had way better stats than their opponents in two of the three defeats. Auburn ranks 23rd in the country in total offense at 466 yards per game and 8th at 7.6 yards per play. The Tigers rank 50th in total defense at 329 yards per game and 39th at 4.8 yards per play. So they are outgaining their opponents by 137 yards per game and a whopping 2.8 yards per play, which are the numbers of a 4-1 or 5-0 team and not one that is 2-3. We'll take advantage of Auburn being undervalued this week. It won't take much for Auburn to get back up off the mat this week to face Georgia, which have been the kings of college football over the last few seasons. But it will take a lot for Georgia to get back up off the mat to face Auburn after a deflating 41-34 loss at Alabama last week. The Bulldogs fought all they way back from a 28-0 deficit to take a 34-33 lead, only to allow another bomb and a game-winner by Alabama before throwing an INT in the end zone to end it going in for the tie. It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice. This Georgia team just isn't as good as the one they put on the field the last three seasons. They have offensive line problems, Carson Beck is lacking weapons and making bad throws, and their defense is leaky. They only beat Kentucky 13-12 as 21.5-point favorites the game before Alabama. They should not be 24.5-point favorites against this underrated Auburn team. Auburn took Georgia to the wire last season in a 27-20 loss as 14-point home underdogs. And Auburn is better this season than they were last year, while Georgia isn't as good. The value is too good to pass up here. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Indiana -13.5 v. Northwestern | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 10 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -13.5 Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and would be 5-0 ATS against the opening line. The Hoosiers are an absolute wagon this season and one of the most improved teams in the country. They have been grossly undervalued and continue to be undervalued this week as only 13.5-point favorites against a Northwestern team that doesn't have the offense to keep up. Indiana won its first four games by a combined score of 202-37. The Hoosiers took a step up in class last week and handled Maryland 42-28 as 7.5-point favorites. They won and covered despite being -4 in turnovers! That just shows the potential of this team. Indiana has no weaknesses. The Hoosiers rank 6th in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game, 11th in total offense at 513 yards per game and 10th at 7.6 yards per play. They rank 19th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 10th in total defense at 239.6 yards per game and 15th at 4.2 yards per play. They are outgaining teams by nearly 300 yards per game and a whopping 3.4 yards per play. Northwestern has another good defense this season, but the Wildcats are even worse off offensively than they were last year. They rank 119th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game, 121st in total offense at 294.5 yard per game and 121st at 4.6 yards per play. They have faced three poor offenses in Miami Ohio, Duke and Eastern Illinois before losing 24-5 to Washington. The Wildcats managed just 102 total yards and gave up 391 to Washington, so that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. I think we see a similar blowout here in Indiana's favor, except the Hoosiers will score more than 24. They should be fully focused knowing they get to rest next week with a bye on deck. The Wildcats have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country. Bet Indiana Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | East Carolina v. Charlotte OVER 46.5 | Top | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 113 h 27 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on East Carolina/Charlotte OVER 46.5 East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play. They rank 3rd in the country in tempo averaging 21.2 seconds in between snaps. It means their defense is going to be on the field a lot, and that defense has been exposed the last couple weeks. They blew a 17-point lead and lost 35-24 to Liberty two weeks ago. Last week, they gave up 456 total yards to what was a previously dead UTSA offense and were fortunate to get out with a 30-20 victory. Charlotte is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season this week. East Carolina could score a season high as well against a Charlotte defense that ranks 118th in scoring at 33.2 points per game, 121st in total defense at 453.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play. It was going to take some time for this ECU offense to gel in the new Air Raid attack, and it looks like they have the last few weeks. Both defenses are tired right now playing for a 6th consecutive week. I think the offenses really have an advantage here in what will be a fast-paced game, and there's no way this total should be set below 50. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Army -10.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 49-7 | Win | 100 | 110 h 16 m | Show |
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -10.5 The Army Black Knights are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and taking no prisoners. They went 6-6 each of the last two seasons and were not invited to a bowl game. That's why there will be no letdowns with this team until they get that elusive 7th win. Army beat Lehigh 42-7 as a 32-point favorite, FAU 24-7 as a 1-point dog, Rice 37-14 as a 7.5-point favorite and Temple 42-14 as 11.5-point favorites. There was nothing fluky about any of those wins. They have one of their best offenses in program history, plus one of their best defenses as well. Army ranks 1st in the entire country in rushing at 371.2 yards per game, but they also have more of a passing element this season averaging 73.2 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per attempt. QB Bryson Daily is one of the best QB's in school history. He has rushed for 492 yards and 8 TD while averaging 6.0 per carry, and this team really follows him into battle with how big of a warrior he is seeking out contact. I've been equally impressed with this Army defense. The Black Knights 7th in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game and 13th in total defense at 258.2 yards per game. They held what was previously a high-powered Temple offense since switching over to Evan Simon at QB to just 14 points last Thursday. Now the Black Knights have had two extra days to rest and recover and get ready to crush Tulsa. Tulsa is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week. The Golden Hurricane are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season. They have been through the gauntlet the last four weeks. After losing 28-24 at Arkansas State, they were crushed 45-10 at home by Oklahoma State. Then they had to go back on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 (OT) win at Louisiana Tech. And last week they went on the road again and got crushed 52-20 at North Texas. I think we see a similar result here to the Oklahoma State and North Texas games. I would argue Army would beat both of those teams, and they both outscored Tulsa 97-30 in their two wins. It's a Tulsa defense that ranks 105th in the country allowing 34.6 points per game. You think they want to try to tackle Daily and these physical Army backs with how drained they are already? The answer is no. This one will get away from them in a hurry. Bet Army Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Navy -9.5 v. Air Force | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 110 h 13 m | Show |
25* Service Academy GAME OF THE YEAR on Navy -9.5 The Navy Midshipmen are an absolute wagon offensively this season. This is probably the best offense they've ever had, and a lot of it has to do with former Mercer offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who is a name to watch in the coming years. Navy is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season behind an offense that ranks 11th in scoring at 46.0 points per game, 24th in total offense at 466 yards per game and 5th at 7.8 yards per play. They have more balance this year rushing for 287 yards per game and throwing for 179 yards per game. They put up 56 points and 659 total yards on a respectable Memphis defense two weeks ago. Air Force is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season. The Falcons have one of the worst offenses in program history. They rank 131st in scoring at 12.5 points per game, 130th in total offense at 243 yards per game and 132nd at 3.8 yards per play. This despite facing a pretty soft schedule beating Merrimack 21-6 as a 30-point favorite, losing 17-7 at home to San Jose State as a 3-point favorite, losing 31-3 at Baylor as a 17-point dog and losing 31-19 at Wyoming as a 4-point favorite. That effort at Wyoming was very alarming for a number of reasons. The Falcons were coming off their bye week so they had two weeks to prepare. And this Wyoming team is hot garbage. The Cowboys were 0-4 previously including a 48-7 loss to Arizona State, a 17-13 home loss to FCS Idaho, a 44-17 loss at North Texas and a 34-14 home loss to BYU. Navy will show no mercy here and will keep pouring on the points considering they will be playing with quadruple revenge with four straight losses to Air Force in this series. It's time for the Midshipmen to the return the favor in blowout fashion. The Falcons simply cannot keep up with the Midsphipmen offensively in this one. Bet Navy Saturday. |
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10-04-24 | Syracuse v. UNLV -6.5 | 44-41 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
15* Syracuse/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -6.5 The UNLV Rebels showed how much more potent they can be with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback in their 59-14 beat down of Fresno State last week. They finally have a passing game as Williams completed 13-of-16 passes for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he proved he can handle the load on the ground as well with 119 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. But this UNLV defense being improved is the reason they are a contender to make the 12-team playoff. The Rebels rank 20th in the country in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game. They are 30th in total defense at 309.5 yards per game and they only allow 4.8 yards per play as well. This is a much more favorable spot for UNLV than it is for Syracuse. The Rebels had a bye prior to last week and then got to host Fresno State last week. They have been home for three straight weeks. Syracuse has played each of the last two weeks at home against Stanford and Holy Cross, actually getting upset by the Cardinal on Friday Night two weeks ago. Now they have to travel all the way out West to Las Vegas and play on a short week. This will be the first road game of the season for Syracuse. They have benefited from a very soft home schedule of Ohio, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Holy Cross. This will be by far their stiffest test of the season, and I don't expect them to handle it very well. Syracuse is just 12-34 SU in its last 46 road games over the last nine seasons. It's a tough spot for a first-year head coach trying to get his troops ready in time to face this red-hot UNLV team. UNLV is now 18-4 ATS in 22 games under current head coach Barry Odom. The books just cannot seem to catch up to how good this team really is. Bet UNLV Friday. |
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10-03-24 | Sam Houston State v. UTEP +10.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +10.5 The spot really favors the UTEP Miners Thursday night. They should not be catching double-digits given the spot being so heavily in their favor tonight, and we'll take advantage. UTEP has a first-year head coach in Scotty Walden who comes over from Austin Peay and brought several of his players with him. But the leftover players still needed to learn his systems, and it was going to take some time. Well, UTEP got a bye last week, and bye weeks are more beneficial to first-year coaches than any other coaches. It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTEP after opening 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS against a pretty difficult schedule. Three of the losses came on the road to Nebraska, Liberty and Colorado State. Nebraska is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, Liberty is a team that many feel will go unbeaten and make the four-team playoff, and Colorado State is no pushover. After giving Liberty all they wanted in a 28-10 loss as 24-point dogs, UTEP put up a good fight in a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as 9-point dogs last time out. The Miners made a switch at QB midway through that game and went to veteran Cade McConnell, who injected life into this offense going 19-of-29 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. McConnell will be the starter moving forward, and getting the bye week to take all the first-team reps will be greatly beneficial to him and this offense. But this play is as much a fade of Sam Houston State as anything. The Bearkats are grossly overvalued right now after starting 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS, and they are in the ultimate letdown spot. Three wins came against Rice, Hawaii and New Mexico State with a 45-14 loss at UCF. Those first three teams are three of the worst in all of college football. No question the 40-39 win over Texas State last Saturday was impressive. The Bearkats came back from a 22-0 deficit to beat the Bobcats 40-39 on a last-second field goal. They used a ton of energy to come back and pull off that upset against their in-state rivals, and now I question how much they will have left in the tank. The Bearkats will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are now on a short week to boot, only getting 4 days to recover in between games. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat 0-4 UTEP this week in this clear flat spot. QB Hunter Watson rushed 27 times for 105 yards in that win and has to at least be a little banged up with how much they use him in the running game. The Miners are live underdogs here tonight. Bet UTEP Thursday. |
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09-28-24 | Arizona v. Utah -11 | 23-10 | Loss | -109 | 96 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Arizona/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11 There's no game atmosphere quite like Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on a Saturday night. The Utah Utes have one of the best home-field advantages in the country as it is, and that is magnified for night games. Utah is 33-2 SU in its last 35 home games. That's why I'm not worried about Utah having a letdown following their big 22-19 win at Oklahoma State last week. The Cowboys trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter. They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was. They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards. And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives. Arizona is a team that profiles similar to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats play no defense and rely heavily on their passing attack to move the football. They will get mauled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, and we've already seen this happen to them in their lone road game this season against a team that profiles similar to Utah. Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State last time out. The Wildcats gave up 235 rushing yards to Kansas State. I'm not worried that the Utes will be playing backup QB Isaac Wilson. He is a dual-threat who threw for 207 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 41 yards on six carries while handling the atmosphere at Oklahoma State very well last week. Bernard rushed for 182 yards as the Utes rushed for 249 as a team in that game. They will get whatever they want on the ground against Arizona. Arizona wasn't sharp in the two games prior to Kansas State, either. The Wildcats only beat New Mexico 61-39 as 28-point favorites. They gave up 470 total yards to the Lobos, who were playing their first game with a new head coach. In their 2nd game, they barely beat Northern Arizona 22-10 as 37-point favorites. They actually trailed 10-6 at halftime in that contest. There's just not a lot to like about this Arizona team after losing many of their players and their head coach to Washington. Brent Brennan may be in over his head this season, and he certainly is this week. Bet Utah Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Washington State v. Boise State OVER 64 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 96 h 51 m | Show | |
15* Washington State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 64 Two of the best offenses in the country go up against two of the worst defenses in the country Saturday night when Washington State visits Boise State. Washington State wants to play fast ranking 15th in the country in seconds per play. Boise ranks 41st in the same category and plays faster than average as well. Boise State is averaging 48.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play ranking in the Top 10 in the country in all three categories. The Broncos rank 3rd in the country in rushing at 311.3 yards per game. The Broncos should get what they want against a Washington State defense that ranks 128th in the country allowing 470.8 yards per game along with 6.1 yards per play. Washington State ranks 10th in the country at 515.2 yards per game while averaging 7.5 yards per play. They have a balanced attack with 225 rushing yards per game and 291 passing yards per game. They'll be up against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern and 37 points to Oregon. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no chance of precipitation in Boise Saturday night. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +24 | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +24 What more does Michigan State have to do to get some respect? The Spartans are 3-1 SU this season including a 27-24 road win at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs. They dominated that game outgaining the Terrapins 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards. In their lone loss this season, Michigan State outgained Boston College 368 to 292, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference in their 23-19 defeat as 5-point road dogs. That's a Boston College team that nearly upset Missouri in a 27-21 road loss and did upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs. Ohio State is getting too much respect for three blowout wins against overmatched opponents. The Buckeyes have faced the 168th-ranked schedule in the country. Their three wins have come against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall and all three were at home, plus they failed to cover the spread in two of them. I think they'll get more of a test from the Spartans than they bargained for this week in their first road game. I like the matchup for the Spartans. They have an elite defense that ranks 14th allowing 254.8 yards per game, 29th against the run allowing 96.8 yards per game, and 14th allowing 2.6 yards per carry. That's impressive considering they have played the much tougher schedule. Ohio State wants to run the football, and the Spartans will offer plenty of resistance. QB Aidan Chiles has kept this Michigan State offense afloat. He has thrown for 891 yards while also rushing for 95 yards and three scores in four games. I expect him to make enough plays to keep the Spartans competitive for four quarters, plus they can rely on a running game that averages 153.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry thus far. Bet Michigan State Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Colorado v. Central Florida -13.5 | Top | 48-21 | Loss | -109 | 117 h 36 m | Show |
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF -13.5 I grabbed UCF -13.5 earlier in the week and it's playable up to -14. This game has blowout written all over it. The Bounce House is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and you know fans will be revved up with Deion Sanders and Colorado coming to town. The Knights are loaded this season with 15 returning starters and a serious contender in the Big 12 under Gus Malzahn. This is his best team yet, especially with the addition of QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season including an upset win at TCU. The Knights have since had a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Colorado to give them a big advantage in rest and preparation. The Knights are loaded offensively ranking 3rd in total offense at 570.7 yards per game including 1st in rushing at 375.7 yards per game and 6.8 per carry. They will run wild on this soft Colorado defense, and they'll be able to keep piling on the points late with this rushing attack to pull away. This is a terrible spot for Colorado. They are coming off a 38-31 (OT) win at Baylor in which they needed a hail mary on the final play of regulation just to get into OT. They scored first, and Baylor fumbled going into the end zone. The Buffaloes celebrated like they won the National Championship afterward, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank this week for UCF. We saw Colorado step up in class on the road earlier this season at Nebraska in a 28-10 defeat. They trailed 28-0 at halftime and it was over before it started. I think that will be the case this week. UCF knows they just have to stop the pass because Colorado cannot run the ball, and they have a very good pass rush. They will be prepared to stop QB Sanders and WR Hunter in this one. The Buffaloes just don't have much else, and their lack of depth defensively will really get tested in this one as the Knights keep pounding the rock. Temps will be in the 80's so the Buffaloes will wear out faster. Plus, there is a very good chance of rain, and the team that can run the football will fare better in these conditions. This just sets up perfectly for a blowout in favor of the Knights. Bet UCF Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | UTSA v. East Carolina OVER 53.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 2 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/ECU OVER 53.5 Two teams that want to play fast square off when UTSA visits East Carolina Saturday. East Carolina ranks 4th in the country in seconds per play, while UTSA ranks 11th. This total of 53.5 is too low for two offenses that want to play this fast. UTSA clearly has an awful defense this season. The Miners allowed 56 points to Texas and 49 points to Texas State. East Carolina hasn't exactly turned their yards into points yet this season, but I think they will this week with their best offensive output of the season against the soft Miners. UTSA got their offense going last week with 45 points. I think they will find success against a ECU defense that allowed 35 points to Liberty last week. Plus, the Pirates just lost their best defensive player to a season-ending injury prior to that game, CB Shavon Revel Jr. who was going to be a high NFL draft pick. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Eastern Michigan -14.5 v. Kent State | 52-33 | Win | 100 | 89 h 4 m | Show | |
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -14.5 Kent State is the worst team in college football and it's not close. The Golden Flashes are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season. They are scoring 10.2 points per game and averaging 167.5 yards per game while allowing 51.2 points per game and 607.5 yards per game. They are getting outscored by 40.0 points per game and getting outgained by 440 yards per game. They are beat up right now after losing 55-24 to Pittsburgh, 23-17 to St. Francis PA, 71-0 to Tennessee and 56-0 to Penn State. They are without their top two quarterbacks in Kargman and Sherrod and are already down to their 3rd-stringer, who has completing 1-of-7 passes on the season. Eastern Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Eagles are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with a 28-14 win at UMass as 2.5-point dogs, a 30-9 loss at Washington as 24.5-point dogs, a 37-34 (OT) win over Jacksonville State as 2.5-point dogs, and a 36-0 win over St. Francis PA as 25.5-point favorites. So these teams already have a common opponent in St. Francis PA. Eastern Michigan beat them 36-0 and held them to 154 total yards while outgaining them by 173 yards. Kent State lost to them 23-17 while allowing 404 yards and getting outgained by 124 yards. This one has blowout written all over it. Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Fresno State v. UNLV -120 | 14-59 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Fresno State/UNLV MWC ANNIHILATOR on UNLV ML -120 This line has dropped from UNLV -4.5 all the way down to nearly a PK due to the news that QB Matt Sluka would redshirt and sit out the rest of the season. It's too big of an adjustment when you consider UNLV's offense was limited by Sluka who was a 43% passer. Many believe backup Hajj-Malik Williams should have been the starter from the jump as these two were in a fierce battle all the way through fall camp. Williams threw for 8,248 yards and 58 touchdowns at Campbell prior to coming here and he is the much better passer, plus he can also get it done on the ground, tho he's not as physical a runner as Sluka. UNLV's captain LB tweeted out 'bout time let's ride' when he heard the news that Sluka elected to sit out paving the way for Williams. UNLV"s best receiver in Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year, tweeted out that Williams would throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in this game. His team clearly has his back, and I believe this is one of those situations where Williams' teammates rally around him for a big performance. UNLV has been led by its defense this season anyway. The Rebels are one of the most improved defenses in the country allowing 13.7 points per game, 297.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. Barry Odom is a defensive-minded head coach and he finally has his players in place. They are balling out on D this season. Now the Rebels are fresh and ready to go coming off their bye week since upsetting Kansas 23-20 as 9-point road dogs last time out. They are out for revenge on Fresno State after losing 31-24 to the Broncos as 10.5-point road dogs last season. The Bulldogs had no business winning that game as the Rebels outgained them 424 to 312, or by 112 total yards. Fresno State used a lot of energy in putting away New Mexico 38-21 on the road last week. This was one of the most misleading final scores last week. New Mexico outgained Fresno State 485 to 345, or by 140 total yards. That's a very bad look allowing that many yards to New Mexico. Their defense was on the field for 81 plays and that will carry over to this week. I love the spot for the Rebels. Bet UNLV Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Maryland v. Indiana -7 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 86 h 52 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7 The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Curt Cignetti brought a lot of players with him from James Madison and brought in some more great recruits, and the early results are impressive. The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet Indiana early in Week 1. They beat FIU 31-7 as 26-point home favorites, Western Illinois 77-3 as 45-point home favorites, UCLA 42-13 as 3.5-point road favorites and Charlotte 52-14 as 28.5-point home favorites. That win over UCLA looks even better now after UCLA went on the road last week and only lost by 17 at LSU. The Hoosiers are a real contender in the Big Ten, and we'll keep getting them at a discount until the oddsmakers and betting public realize it. Maryland is a rebuilding team this season. The Terrapins lost all of their top playmakers on offense including their all-everything QB in Tagovailoa. They have wins over Virginia, UConn and Villanova, but when they stepped up in class they lost 27-24 as 8.5-point home favorites to Michigan State. They were outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 yards by the Spartans. Now the Terrapins face their toughest test of the season here on the road against Indiana, which is backed by an excited fan base and will have a bigger home-field advantage than normal because of it. If they gave up 484 yards to an average Michigan State offense, you can imagine what this Indiana offense is going to do to them. The Hoosiers are averaging 50.5 points per game, 513.8 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season. Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing 9.2 points per game, 199.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play. Bet Indiana Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | 20-42 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 12 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Kansas State UNDER 56 One look at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma State and Kansas State and it's easy to see there's value on the UNDER 56 in this one. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 51 or fewer combined points in all six meetings. It will be more of the same here. I expect Kansas State to control this game playing from ahead. The Wildcats are a methodical running team that relies on running the football and playing defense to win games. They rush for 240 yards per game and only throw for 160 yards per game. They allow just 297 yards per game on the season. We saw Utah stymie this Oklahoma State offense last week holding them to 3 points with less than 6 minutes to play before the Cowboys scored two touchdowns with two 2-point conversions in the final six minutes for a 22-19 final. Kansas State profiles similar to Utah and will do the same. We saw Kansas State play a team with a similar profile to Oklahoma State earlier this season. Kansas State beat Arizona 31-7 at home. Arizona is known for a high-powered offense that plays little defense. Kansas State controlled this game playing from ahead and it saw just 38 combined points. It will be more of the same here against the Cowboys. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -4 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 112 h 16 m | Show |
20* Oklahoma State/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -4 I grabbed K-State -4 earlier this week and it's playable all the way up to -6.5. I love the spot for the Wildcats. They are coming off an embarrassing, misleading 38-9 loss at BYU in a late-night game in Provo where it's very tough to win. I had BYU +7.5 in that game and it was one of my 20* Top Plays. But that game was a lot closer than the final score. Kansas State settled for a couple short field goals early to keep the Cougars in it. They scored 17 unanswered points in two minutes right before halftime to bust it open. One was a 30-yard fumbled return TD. Later in the 2nd half they got a 90-yard punt return TD that was one of the craziest returns you'll ever see. Kansas State actually outgained BYU 357 to 241 for the game, or by 116 total yards. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed that punt return TD, which was the difference. Their defense and running game remains elite, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday. The Wildcats rank 36th in total defense allowing 297.5 yards per game. They face an Oklahoma State team that doesn't play defense, ranking 126th in the country allowing 461 yards per game. You could tell this defense was going to be bad when they allowed 648 total yards to Arkansas in a very fortunate OT win where they were outgained by nearly 300 yards. Oklahoma State is coming off a misleading 22-19 home loss to Utah and their backup QB last week. They trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter. They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was. They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards. And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives. Now Oklahoma State goes up against another team with a very similar profile to Utah. They are a team that plays elite defense and runs the football. The Cowboys are allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in defending the run. The Wildcats will run wild on them. Offensively, the Cowboys are lost at the QB position. Alan Bowman got benched last week before returning late in the game. They cannot run the ball despite coming into the season with one of the best backs in the country in Ollie Gordon. They rank 115th in rushing at 96.2 yards per game and 109th at 3.3 yards per carry. They are a one-dimensional passing attack and the Wildcats will be ready for it. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less under current head coach Chris Kleiman. I trust the Wildcats to respond in a big way similar to when they beat Oklahoma State 48-0 at home two years ago as 2.5-point favorites. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Kansas State Saturday. |
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09-28-24 | Western Kentucky +13 v. Boston College | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 23 m | Show |
25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky +13 Note: It was announced that BC starting QB Castellanos would miss this game since I posted this pick. The line is currently down to +8 at most places. It's still a 25* at +7.5 or better, and a 20* at anything worse. Boston College is overvalued for playing well against two teams that are way overrated in my opinion. I was on the Eagles when they upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs and I was on them again when they took Missouri to the wire in a 27-21 defeat as 14.5-point dogs. Florida State is lucky to not be 0-4 right now as they got a win over Cal that they didn't deserve last week. Missouri needed OT to beat Vanderbilt at home last week. So those two performances don't look nearly as good now. I successfully faded the Eagles last week as they failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 23-19 home win over Michigan State. They had no business winning that game as they were outgained 368 to 292 by the Spartans, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference. This is the ultimate flat spot for Boston College now. They have been through the gauntlet going to the wire with Missouri and Michigan State the last two weeks, which were also two very physical games. I question how much they have left in the tank for Western Kentucky this week. It's also a sandwich spot with an ACC opponent in Virginia on deck next week. And it's fair to question how much intensity the Eagles will be playing with after playing their famous 'Red Bandana' game last week against Sparty. They get up for that game every year for obvious reasons, and now they will come back down from it in this obvious flat spot. Western Kentucky is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming to Alabama. The Hilltoppers have been playing better the last two weeks since switching to Caden Veltkamp at quarterback. He led them to their big comeback bowl win last year while throwing 5 TD passes. He should have started from the jump, and he is proving it completing 73.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio since taking over as starter two games ago. The 31-0 win over Eastern Kentucky as 19.5-point favorites and the 49-21 win at Middle Tennessee as 7-point favorites weren't that impressive despite the fact that they covered by such large margins. It was the 26-21 win as 2.5-point dogs to Toledo last week that was impressive. Toledo was coming off a 41-17 win at SEC foe Mississippi State, and many expected the Rockets to win the MAC this season. They are more than capable of hanging with a Boston College team that won't be putting their best foot forward this week. They proven they could stop the run holding Toledo to 125 rushing yards on 42 carries for an average of 3.0 yards per carry. And stopping the run against BC will be key as the Eagles are more of a one-dimensional running team. Bet Western Kentucky Saturday. |
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09-27-24 | Virginia Tech +19.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 69 h 32 m | Show |
20* VA Tech/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +19.5 This is a great time to 'buy low' on Virginia Tech and 'sell high' on Miami. Virginia Tech is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS this season, while Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. This line would have been less than 7 if it were played in Week 1, and because of results thus far it has been adjusted up way too much to 19.5 points here Friday night. Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season about possibly being a sleeper to win the ACC after how strong them finished last season, plus the fact that they brought back 21 starters from that team. They were upset 34-27 as 13-point favorites by Vanderbilt in the opener. Vanderbilt went on to nearly upset Missouri, losing in OT on the road last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now. Last week, Virginia Tech lost 26-23 to Rutgers as 3-point home favorites. Rutgers was coming off a bye week and had a big rest advantage. Also, Rutgers looks like one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 3-0 start and two other blowout victories. Miami is getting a lot of credit for its 4-0 start this season against a very soft schedule. The win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now after Texas A&M crushed Florida as well. They blew out Ball State and Florida A&M, and last week they were trailing 15-14 near halftime to USF before outscoring them 36-0 the rest of the way. They were aided by an injury to USF QB Brown in the 2H, who means everything to their team. I'll gladly 'sell high' on the hype this week as this is the type of game Miami has had a letdown at home in the past under Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes lost outright as 20-point home favorites to Georgia Tech last year and needed OT to beat Virginia as 18-point favorites. I think they'll get a much bigger fight than they bargained for in this one. Each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less, and VA Tech has only lost one if its last eight meetings with Miami by more than 18 points. Bet Virginia Tech Friday. |
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09-26-24 | Army v. Temple OVER 45.5 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Army/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 45.5 For starters, games involving a service academy where both teams are on a short week are 14-3 OVER since 2018. This trend makes sense because the opponent has less time to prepare for their triple-option and they aren't ready for it. These games always tend to be more shootouts compared to these low totals for these service academy games. Army is a wagon on offense this season behind one of the best triple-option QB's in program history in Bryson Dailey, who has rushed for 340 yards and 5 TD while throwing for 186 yards and 3 TD while averaging 9 yards per attempt. He leads an Army offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 356 rushing yards per game. That makes this a great matchup for this Army offense up against this Temple defense that allows 221.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, ranking 124th in the country against the run. Temple lost 38-11 to Navy three weeks ago and allowed 297 rushing yards to the Midshipmen. But the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is the improvement of the Temple offense once they switched QB's to Evan Simon two games ago. Simon is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 53 yards and a score. He threw 5 touchdown passes in a 45-29 win over Utah State last week. Simon and this Temple offense should be able to answer when Army scores almost every possession. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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09-21-24 | Kansas State v. BYU +7.5 | Top | 9-38 | Win | 100 | 102 h 25 m | Show |
20* K-State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +7.5 BYU gave Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all they wanted in their final two games last season. They lost 31-24 as 25-point home dogs to Oklahoma and 40-34 as 16-point road dogs to Oklahoma State in double-OT. It was a sign of things to come this season. The Cougars brought back 14 starters and look like one of the most improved teams in this country thus far. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Southern Illinois 41-13 as 16.5-point home favorites, upsetting SMU 18-15 as 12.5-point road underdogs and crushing Wyoming 34-14 as 9.5-point road favorites. While the offense finished strong last year and is solid again, it's the improvements on defense that have really stood out. The Cougars held SMU's high-powered offense to just 261 total yards and a paltry 3.6 yards per play. They rank 12th in the country allowing 236.3 yards per game on the season and 12th at 3.8 yards per play thus far. Kansas State had high expectations coming into the season with many picking them to win the Big 12. With those expectations comes lines that are tough for them to live up to. The Wildcats have no business being more than a touchdown road favorite here against this upstart BYU team. We saw the Wildcats struggle in their lone road game this season against a rebuilding Tulane team with a new head coach. They won 34-27 as 9.5-point road favorites, but they were very lucky to win that game. They trailed 20-10 at halftime and got a 40-yard fumble recovery TD in the 4th quarter that was the difference. Tulane actually outgained Kansas State 491 to 396 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards. BYU has one of the best home-field advantages in the country when they are good, and fans are excited about this team after a 3-0 start. It will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night in Provo for this 10:30 EST start time. Their home-field advantage is worth more than is being factored into this line. This should be much closer to PK. Bet BYU Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | UL-Monroe +45 v. Texas | Top | 3-51 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 21 m | Show |
20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +45 Texas is the new No. 1 ranked team in the country after Georgia struggled to get by Kentucky last week. The Longhorns are off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start including a 31-12 road win at Michigan. With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to. The Longhorns shouldn't be laying 45 points to an upstart Louisiana-Monroe team Saturday. The Longhorns avoided a letdown last week off the Michigan win with a 56-7 win over UTSA. That's a UTSA team that is way down this season and one that lost 49-10 to Texas State the previous week. Arch Manning came in for an injured Quinn Ewers and lit it up. He threw 4 TD passes while also rushing for a 67-yard TD. Fans and the media are praising Manning now as he will get the start in this game as Ewers recovers. But what made Texas such a good bet to cover these big numbers was having Manning take over for Ewers late in blowouts and to keep piling on the points. That won't be the case this week. The Longhorns are much more concerned with just getting out of here with a win, and looking ahead to their SEC opener against Mississippi State next week. They are excited about their first season as a member of the SEC and will be looking to prove themselves next week, not this week. I think this is their flat spot, and they won't be looking to pile on the points late with their 3rd-sting QB. Louisiana-Monroe has been impressive in its 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start. They beat Jackson State 30-14 as 5.5-point home favorites in their opener. Jackson State went on to beat Lane 58-7 and Southern 33-15. They beat UAB 32-6 as 11-point home dogs in their second game of the season. UAB went on to give Arkansas all they wanted in a 37-27 road loss as 22-point underdogs last week. Meanwhile, ULM has had the last two weeks off after getting a bye to prepare to face Texas. The Warhawks will be looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and I look for them to give the Longhorns much more than they bargained for. New head coach Bryant Vincent is doing a great job already in his first season turning the Warhawks into a ball control team that actually plays defense as they have allowed just 272.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. He brought in some great talent that is flying under the radar. Speaking of ball control offense, ULM ranks 126th in the country in tempo with 31.2 seconds in between snaps. They will slow this game down to a crawl, which will give them a better chance of covering this massive 45-point spread. That will limit Texas' possessions and give them their best chance of being competitive. Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Akron +28.5 v. South Carolina | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 52 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron +28.5 I love fading teams in South Carolina's situation this week. They are coming off a gut-wrenching 36-33 home loss to LSU last week with ESPN's College GameDay in attendance. It will be hard for them to get back up off the mat to face Akron this week, and they have Ole Miss on deck. That makes this a massive sandwich spot for the Gamecocks stepping out of conference to face a MAC school sandwiched in between those two huge SEC games. That's no two very physical games in a row against Kentucky and LSU for the Gamecocks. They didn't come away unscathed as they lost their starting QB and will likely be starting a backup, but either way the Gamecocks aren't very good at the position. This South Carolina offense leaves a lot to be desired. They rank 114th at 312.7 yards per game and 112th at 4.9 yards per play. They are averaging just 147.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st. They had misleading wins over both Kentucky and Old Dominion. Their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener was very concerning. Both of their touchdowns came after turnovers on drive starting inside the ODU 10-yard line. They were outgained by the Monarchs in that game, and I think we see them struggle similarly against Akron this week given the terrible spot for them. Akron actually held its own against Ohio State in the opener. The Zips were only down 17-3 at halftime before Ohio State got two defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half to pull away. They held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 404 total yards. They predictably struggled against Rutgers the next week as that's a brutal stretch of two physical Big Ten opponents. The Zips came out flat in Week 3 falling behind Colgate 17-0. But they dusted themselves off and outscored Colgate 31-3 the rest of the way. QB Ben Finley was impressive with 358 passing yards and 4 TD and he is a Power-4 level QB after transferring in from NC State. Joe Moorhead is in his 3rd season at Akron and has brought in some great recruits to make the Zips competitive. Sure, Moorhead is just 4-20 in his first two seasons, but the Zips have been much more competitive than that record shows. In fact, they 12 of those 20 losses have come by 11 points or less, they have just been unfortunate in close games. They are one of the most undervalued teams in the country this season as a result. Bet Akron Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Tennessee v. Oklahoma OVER 57.5 | 25-15 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 57 m | Show | |
15* Tennessee/Oklahoma ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57.5 Tennessee has put up some of the best offensive numbers we've ever seen through three games. The Volunteers are averaging 63.7 points per game, 639.3 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play. This despite not getting tested and really not having to play with much tempo in the 2nd half of every game. The Volunteers will get tested against Oklahoma, and they will have to put their foot on the gas for four quarters. They have a Heisman Trophy contender in Nico Iamaleava at quarterback, a dual-threat who is completing 72% of his passes while averaging 6.0 per carry and he has yet to finish a game because of blowouts. You know head coach Josh Heupel, the former Oklahoma offensive coordinator who didn't get the head job and was disgruntled because of it, will be looking to unleash him this week. Oklahoma also has one of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Jackson Arnold. He has done well this season despite injuries at WR and along the offensive line, which are two positions that should be healthier this week. Arnold is completing 63% of his passes for 484 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 159 yards and 2 TD on the ground. Arnold has formed a nice chemistry with Purdue transfer WR Deion Burks, who has 22 receptions for 169 yards and 3 TD. At least one reinforcement is on the way as WR Nic Anderson is expected to make his season debut this week. Anderson was electric as a freshman last season, catching 38 balls for 798 yards and 10 TD while averaging 21.0 yards per reception. He will instantly stretch the field for this offense and make life much easier on Arnold this week. Tennessee only ranks 47th in tempo this season at 25.6 seconds in between plays, but by the end of the season they should be closer to Top 10 in this category because they want to play fast and will be in much more competitive games. Oklahoma ranks 27th in tempo at 24.3 seconds in between plays and wants to play fast as well. Neither defense has come close to seeing an offense as explosive as they one they will be trying to tame Saturday. I expect a shootout in Norman today. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Bowling Green +23 v. Texas A&M | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +23 Bowling Green is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season and a legit contender to win the MAC. Scot Loeffler enters his 6th season at Bowling Green coming off a 7-6 campaign. He has 15 starters back from a team that finished very strong last year. The Falcons went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six MAC games last year with their lone loss coming against arguably the best team in the MAC in Toledo by a final of 32-31. They also went on to lose to Big Ten foe Minnesota 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl. The Falcons beat Fordham 41-17 as 15.5-point favorites in their opener. Terion Stewart rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons rushed for 303 yards as a team. Stewart average 6.1 yards per carry last season. QB Connor Bazelak is back as is leading receiver Harold Fannin. And this Bowling Green defense is way underrated, allowing 24.0 points and 326 yards per game last season with seven starters back this season. The Falcons played Michigan tough last year in a 31-6 loss as 40-point road underdogs. That's a Michigan team that went on to go 15-0 and win the National Championship. I said the Falcons wouldn't be intimidated by Penn State in Week 2, and that proved to be the case. They took the Nittany Lions to the wire in a 34-27 road loss as 34-point underdogs. This despite not having Stewart at RB due to injury. Bazelak did most of it with his arm with 254 passing yards and 2 TD while finding Fannin 11 times for 137 yards and a score. Now Bowling Green has a bye week to get healthy, and they should have Stewart back this week and be fresh and ready to test themselves against an SEC opponent in Texas A&M. This is a potential flat spot for the Aggies, who beat Florida 33-20 on the road last week, and now could get caught looking ahead to Arkansas next week. This is a sandwich spot for the Aggies as they won't be nearly as excited to face Bowling Green as they were Florida or as they will be against Arkansas. Just being a little flat will make it difficult for them to cover this lofty 23-point spread. Bet Bowling Green Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Miami-FL v. South Florida OVER 65 | Top | 50-15 | Push | 0 | 148 h 27 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/South Florida OVER 65 These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country squaring off down in the heat in Tampa, Florida Saturday night and it will be a game filled with offensive fireworks. I think the Bulls can go score for score with the Hurricanes in an absolute shootout. South Florida ranks 6th in the country in tempo with just 21.9 seconds in between snaps thus far. The Bulls returned 10 starts on offense from a unit that put up 31.9 points per game and 452 yards per game last season. They are even better this season, hanging 48 points on Bethune-Cookman and 49 points on Southern Miss. They only managed 16 points against Alabama, but they had their opportunities. I love sophomore QB Byrum Brown, who completed 65% of his passes for 3,292 yards and a 26-to-11 TD INT ratio, while also rushing for 809 yards and 11 scores last year. He is a dual-threat who is one of the best QB's in the country that not too many folks know about. Miami's offense looks electric with the addition of QB Cam Ward from Washington State. The Hurricanes hung 41 points on Florida, 56 on Florida A&M and 62 on Ball State in their first three games. Ward is quickly climbing up the Heisman Trophy odds board completing 73% of his passes for 1,035 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games. Miami hasn't been tested yet, so they haven't had to put the throttle down offensively. They will have to try to go score for score with USF this week because the Bulls will be by far the best offense they have faced. But they should have plenty of success against a USF defense that allowed 32.2 points per game last season, and while they may be improved this season, they don't get to see many offenses as good as this Miami unit. They allowed 42 points to Alabama two games ago, and 24 points and 487 yards to a bad Southern Miss offense last week. South Florida and its opponents have combined for at least 62 points in 16 of their last 21 regular season games, including 65 points or more in 13 of those. The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and how poor they are defensively. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Miami-FL v. South Florida +18 | Top | 50-15 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 12 m | Show |
20* Miami/USF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +18 The South Florida Bulls are loaded this season with 18 returning starters for one of the best young coaches in college football in Alex Golesh. He led the Bulls to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with a 45-0 win over Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. Now the Bulls have been nothing short of impressive in their first three games this season. They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with blowout wins over Bethune-Cookman 48-3 and Southern Miss 49-24. It was impressive that they avoided the letdown last week with that 25-point win at USM as 13-point favorites. They were coming off their deflating, misleading 42-16 loss at Alabama as 30.5-point dogs the previous week. And they had this game against Miami on deck, making it a big sandwich spot. They showed a lot of maturity last week, and they will be ready for their 'National Championship' at home against Miami this week. The 42-16 loss to Alabama was much closer than the final score. The Bulls had a chance to tie that game with just under 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but settled for a 22-yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and goal from the 5 when they were down 8. The Crimson Tide managed to score 3 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes to turn a 21-16 game into a 42-16 game. The Bulls let go of the rope after that short FG. They actually had more first downs than Alabama and held them below 400 total yards. It was the 2nd consecutive year they took the Crimson Tide to the wire. No question Miami has been impressive this season. But they have also benefited from a very soft schedule. Their win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now as the Gators look like one of the worst teams in the SEC. They beat FCS Florida A&M 56-9 as 48-point favorites and Ball State 62-0 as 37-point favorites. Ball State is a rebuilding team that only returned one starter on defense this season. The Hurricanes will finally face a team with a pulse this week in South Florida. I like this Miami team both offensively with Cam Ward and defensively with all their talent, but this is the type of game head coach Mario Cristobal could blow. I don't trust him to make the right decisions as he has blown it time and time again as a head coach. Miami has its ACC opener on deck against Virginia Tech on Friday and could get caught looking ahead to that game as well. Bet South Florida Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | East Carolina v. Liberty OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 147 h 12 m | Show |
20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on East Carolina/Liberty OVER 52.5 East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team this season with their shift to an up-tempo, Air Raid offense. They rank 5th in the country in tempo at 21 seconds in between snaps. They haven't been as efficient as they'd like, but with three games now under their belts that should change moving forward. I think we are getting great value on this OVER 52.5 because ECU has actually gone under the total in their first three games due to not turning their yardage into points and tempo into points. They are putting up 432 yards per game with a balanced attack of 143 rushing yards per game and 289 passing yards per game. Now they face an elite offense in Liberty that they are going to have to go score for score with in this one. Liberty put up 38.3 points per game and 499 yards per game last season. They brought back QB Kaidon Salter, who had a 32-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season while also rushing for 1,089 yards and 12 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the country. RB Quinton Cooley is back after rushing for 1,401 yards and 16 TD last season. The Flames have averaged 471 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play thus far in 2024. They are coming off a low-scoring game against UTEP in which they took knees at the 1-yard line in the final seconds which is also adding to our value here on this OVER. This is a great contrarian OVER game after the results from both teams last week with ECU playing a lower-scoring game against Appalachian State as well. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Vanderbilt +21.5 v. Missouri | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 95 h 48 m | Show | |
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +21.5 I think the Missouri Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites. It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season. They are starting to get too much respect from the books. Missouri is the No. 7 ranked team in the country currently. With that Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough for them to live up to. I took advantage and backed Boston College +17 last week in a 27-21 road loss to Missouri. And I'll gladly fade the Tigers again with Vanderbilt +21.5 in their SEC opener against the Tigers this week. Vanderbilt is clearly an improved team that brought back 15 starters this season. They proved it with their 34-27 upset home win as 13-point underdogs to Virginia Tech in the opener. That's a VA Tech team that many thought would contend for an ACC title because they finished strong last year and brought 21 starters from that team. They still may very well contend for an ACC title. The Commodores avoided the letdown in Week 2 with a 55-0 win over Alcorn State as 33.5-point favorites. But the letdown came last week with their 36-32 outright loss to Georgia State as 8.5-point road favorites. They were likely caught looking ahead to Missouri this week. That result is providing us extra line value this week that we will take advantage of. Had they beaten Georgia State, this line would likely be closer to 14 instead of 21.5. Eight of the last 10 meetings were decided by 17 points or fewer, including 10 points or fewer in seven of those 10 meetings. The Tigers will get more of a fight from the Commodores than they bargained for. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Memphis v. Navy +10 | 44-56 | Win | 100 | 101 h 3 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Navy +10 The Memphis Tigers were one of the top contenders to make the playoffs from the Group of 5 coming into the season. They won the game they had to last week, upsetting Florida State on the road. Now this is a clear flat spot for the Tigers off that big win against an ACC opponent. But Florida State is no good this season, getting upset as double-digit favorites by both Georgia Tech and Boston College before getting upset as 6.5-point favorites against Memphis. So let's not crown the Tigers just yet. I wouldn't be surprise if they lose outright to Navy this week, and at the very least they should not be double-digit favorites given this obvious flat spot. I also like what I've seen from Navy this season. Brian Newberry stepped into a tough situation in his first season at Navy last year and held up well with a 5-7 record. Now he has 14 starters back this season, which is a ton for a service academy. Navy beat Bucknell 49-21 as 31.5-point favorites in the opener and crushed Temple 38-11 as 11.5-point favorites in Week 2. Now the Midshipmen have had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis after receiving a bye last week. That is another big advantage in their favor. This Navy offense is really clicking with 280.5 rushing yards per game and 142.5 passing yards per game. The catalyst is QB Blake Horvath, who has rushed for 155 yards and 3 scores while also throwing for 220 yards and 3 TD. They key to these triple-option offenses is always the QB, and Navy looks to have a good one this season. Memphis only beat Navy 28-24 as 11-point home favorites last season. The Midshipmen outgained them by 24 yards and racked up 299 yards on the ground. This Memphis defense is their weakness again and they can be had. I think the Midshipmen keep this game close for four quarters with a great shot to pull off the upset in the end. Bet Navy Saturday. |
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09-21-24 | Rice v. Army -5 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 92 h 9 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Army -5 The Army Black Knights went 6-6 last season but were not invited to a bowl for a 2nd consecutive season. They were extremely motivated in the offseason because of it, and I think the Black Knights are a sleeping giant this season as a result. This could be one of the best offenses of the Jeff Monken era in his 11th season on the job. Eight starters return on offense this season including senior QB Bryson Daily. He threw for 913 yards and 7 TD last season while also rushing for a team-high 901 yards and 7 scores. Daily and the offense got going in a big way in a 42-7 win over Lehigh as a 32-point favorite in their opener. They racked up 375 rushing yards including 78 and two touchdowns from Daily. Army went on to upset Florida Atlanta 24-7 on the road in Week 2 while outgaining the Owls 449 to 235 in a dominant effort. Keep in mind Florida Atlantic showed well in their other two games, making that win by Army look even more impressive. FAU only lost 16-10 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs and topped Florida International 38-20 as 3.5-point home favorites. Now Army is coming off a bye week giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Rice. The Owls made a bowl game each of the last two seasons, but it looks like head coach Mike Bloomgren has lost his touch this season. The losses of QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey have proven to be too much to overcome. This Rice offense looks awful thus far to say the least. The Owls lost 34-14 as 10-point home favorites to Sam Houston State, failing to cover by 30 points with just 274 total yards on offense. Last week, the Owls lost 33-7 at Houston as 4.5-point dogs, failing to cover by 21.5 points. They only managed 159 total yards against the Cougars. I don't think Rice can keep up with Army this week. The Owls allowed 237 rushing yards to Houston and 178 rushing yards to Sam Houston State. Now they must face an Army rushing attack that will likely wind up being the best in the country. They are averaging 390 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry thus far. Bet Army Saturday. |
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09-20-24 | San Jose State +14.5 v. Washington State | Top | 52-54 | Win | 100 | 105 h 25 m | Show |
20* San Jose State/Washington State CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +14.5 San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season. They beat a quality FCS team in Sacramento State 42-24 as 2.5-point favorites, upset Air Force 17-7 as 3-point road dogs and covered as 16.5-point home favorites in a 31-10 win over Kennesaw State. Ken Niumatalolo found a good landing spot here at San Jose State because Brent Brennan did not leave the cupboard bare. Washington State has been underrated up to this point as well going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS including upset wins over Texas Tech and Washington in their last two. And that win over Washington in the Apple Cup last week is the reason I'm fading the Cougars here. This is a clear letdown spot off their 'Super Bowl', and they won't care nearly as much about beating San Jose State this week as they cared about beating Washington last week. It's also worth mentioning those were two misleading finals as well. Texas Tech had 491 yards while Washington State had 416 yards, yet the Red Raiders lost by 21 due to committing 4 turnovers. Washington lost 24-19 despite outgaining Washington State 452 to 381 for the game as well. Those misleading finals have the Cougars way overvalued now. We'll take advantage. San Jose State is allowing 248.3 yards per game and 3.5 yards per play while Washington State is allowing 464 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. I'll gladly back the better defense at a nice value here tonight. Bet San Jose State Friday. |
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09-20-24 | Illinois v. Nebraska UNDER 43.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Illinois/Nebraska FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 43.5 Both Illinois and Nebraska are dead nuts UNDER teams that rely on defense to win games and play at a very slow tempo. Illinois ranks 122nd in the country at 30.3 seconds in between snaps, while Nebraska ranks 115th at 29.8 seconds. Nebraska brought back eight starters from a unit that allowed just 18.3 points per game and 304 yards per game last season. They are allowing 6.7 points per game, 255.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Colorado and UTEP. Illinois is allowing 8.7 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season. This despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Kansas and Central Michigan. They held the Jayhawks to 17 points and the Chippewas to 9 points. Nebraska and its opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in 18 of its last 20 games overall, including 42 or fewer in 15 of those. Illinois is 3-0 UNDER in all games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in all three, including 40 or fewer in the last two. The UNDER is 2-0 in the two meetings over the last two seasons with 35 and 27 combined points. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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09-19-24 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State OVER 64 | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 56 m | Show | |
15* South Alabama/App State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64 Two great offenses square off against two of the worst defenses in the country Thursday night in what should be a shootout in the Sun Belt. The forecast looks good for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, zero wind and only a small chance of rain. South Alabama ranks 11th in the country at 512.3 yards per game and 10th at 7.7 yards per play. New head coach Major Applewhite was their offensive coordinator last season and has another elite offense, but the defense is really hurting with the loss of defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama. The Jaguars only have three starters back on defense and lose six of their top seven tacklers. Their defense allowed 52 points and 550 total yards to North Texas, and 27 points and 404 total yards to Ohio. Appalachian State has scored at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons. They have another great offense this season led by senior QB Joey Aguilar, who had a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season. The Mountaineers are averaging 456 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season despite facing two good defenses in Clemson and East Carolina. This will be their easiest test yet. Appalachian State ranks 128th in the country allowing 7.0 yards per play this season. They allowed 66 points to Clemson. We have two offensive-minded head coaches that aren't that concerned with playing defense here tonight. Plus, Appalachian State has a couple defensive starters that have to sit out the 1H due to targeting penalties. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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09-14-24 | Indiana -2.5 v. UCLA | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 147 h 2 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5 The Indiana Hoosiers are loaded this season under 1st-year head coach Curt Cignetti. He led James Madison to a 19-4 record the last two years and he is going to turn around this Indiana program in a hurry. Cignetti has 21 returning starters when you count all the transfers he brought in with him from James Madison and other schools. The Hoosiers are off to a fast start beating Florida International 31-7 at home and Western Illinois 77-3 at home as a 45-point favorite. That's a FIU team that went on to beat Central Michigan 52-16 last week. QB Kurtis Roarke comes over from Ohio and has been impressive, completing 73.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio. The backfield is loaded with three RB's that have already topped 100 rushing yards. The receiving room is loaded with JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, Texas Tech transfer Myles Price and returnee Omar Cooper Jr., who have combined for 23 receptions for 392 yards and 2 TD. The defense returns 11 starters and hasn't given up an inch. So it's a team I'm very high on in Indiana up against a team I am very down on in UCLA, which will turn out to be on the worst Power 4 teams in the country this season. Head coach Chip Kelly bolted for Ohio State, and a lot of their best players transferred out. Plus they lost defensive coordinator Lynn to USC. Former UCLA RB Deshaun Foster doesn't have any previous head coaching experience and steps into a very tough situation. The Bruins only have 12 starters back and a ton of new faces. They were far from impressive in their 16-13 win at Hawaii as 13.5-point favorites in their opener. That's a Hawaii team that was in a 7-point game in the 4th quarter as 40.5-point home favorites against Delaware State the week prior. They stand little chance of keeping this game competitive against the upstart Hoosiers. Bet Indiana Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Colorado v. Colorado State UNDER 59 | 28-9 | Win | 100 | 121 h 39 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Colorado State UNDER 59 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. Colorado and Colorado State will be meeting for a 2nd consecutive season after Colorado's thrilling 43-35 (2 OT) win last year. This was a 21-14 game in the 4th quarter with just 35 combined points. It was tied at 28-28 at the end of regulation for 56 combined points. I think the UNDER 59 has some value here in the rematch after going for just 56 at the end of regulation last year. Colorado State is going to go with a run-heavy approach to try and take advantage of the interior of this Colorado defense. Their strength is in their secondary. The Rams are going to try and play a ball control game, which they practiced last week rushing for 224 yards in a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado after getting shut out 52-0 by Texas in the opener. Colorado is a one-dimensional passing team with a terrible offensive line and zero threat of a rushing attack. That makes them much easier to stop, and it keeps Shedeur Sanders under pressure all game. That was the case last week as the Buffaloes rushed for just 16 yards on 22 carries against Nebraska, and Sanders was sacked 6 times in a 28-10 defeat. Even in a shootout against North Dakota State in their opener it only saw 57 combined points in a 31-26 win by the Buffaloes. Colorado rushed for 59 yards on 23 carries. Colorado State has played in 8 consecutive games that saw 55 or fewer combined points dating back to last season, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total. They have an underrated defense, and their offense is nowhere near the levels many expected it would be under Jay Norvell. Five of Colorado's last seven games have seen 57 or fewer combined points as well. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Georgia v. Kentucky UNDER 45.5 | 13-12 | Win | 100 | 94 h 43 m | Show | |
15* Georgia/Kentucky ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5 There is a decent chance of rain Saturday at Kentucky but we're not going to need it to cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket. These are two of the slowest offenses in the country as Kentucky ranks 129th in seconds per play while Georgia ranks 125th. Both teams like to slow it to a crawl and rely on defense. Georgia has allowed a total of 6 points through two games against Clemson and Tennessee Tech. They allowed 3 points to a Clemson team that just hung 66 on Appalachian State last week. This Georgia defense may be the best in the country again. Kentucky hangs its hat on defense every year because they always have a suspect offense. That is the case again this season. Kentucky beat Southern Miss 31-0 in the opener. They managed just 317 total yards and held USM to 131 total yards. Last week, Kentucky lost 31-6 at home to South Carolina. The Wildcats managed just 183 total yards of offense while holding the Gamecocks to 252 total yards, but they had a defensive touchdown otherwise it would have been a 24-6 final. Kentucky starting QB Vandagriff got hurt against South Carolina and may not go this week. That would leave the QB duties to Wimsatt, the Rutgers transfer who started for them last year but was more of a runner than a passer. The Wildcats may have to go 'wildcat' with Wimsatt, no pun intended. There's a very good chance Georgia shuts them out, and I would be surprised if they topped 7 points in this one. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 17, 21, 22 and 43 combined points in the four games that went under the total. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Colorado v. Colorado State +7.5 | Top | 28-9 | Loss | -109 | 121 h 39 m | Show |
20* Colorado/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5 Colorado State gets to host Colorado on campus for the first time since 1996. This is a massive deal for them, and adding to their motivation is that the Rams want revenge from a brutal 43-35 (2 OT) loss to Colorado last season after blowing an 11-point lead in the final 7 minutes of regulation. Colorado State outgained Colorado 499 to 418 in that meeting last year. QB Fowler-Nicolosi completed 34-of-47 passes for 367 yards and 3 TD and 3 INT in the loss, and he is back this season to redeem himself. 1st-Team All-MWC WR Tory Horton had 16 receptions for 133 yards and a score in the defeat, and he is back for revenge as well. Jay Norvell has 14 starters in all back this season in Year 3, which is where coaches usually make their biggest leaps with their new programs. The 52-0 loss to Texas in the opener was a setback, but Texas may be the best team in the country after beating Michigan 31-12 on the road last week. The Rams bounced back with a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado last week. They got their ground game going with 224 rushing yards and that will be an emphasis this week after watching Colorado get shredded on the ground thus far. Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else. Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season. That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener. The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury. Colorado then went on to fall behind 28-0 at halftime to Nebraska last week before the Huskers called off the dogs in the second half. The Buffaloes managed just 16 rushing yards on 24 carries, and Sanders was sacked 6 times and under duress the entire game behind a shotty Colorado offensive line. The Buffaloes are terrible up front on offense and on defense, and that is going to be their undoing again this week as well. Sanders threw his O-Line under the bus and I question how badly they want to have his back this week. This team has no business being more than a TD road favorite against a Colorado State team that is going to play the little brother roll and want it more. This is a game I fully expect the Rams to win outright. Bet Colorado State Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | UTSA +36 v. Texas | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 54 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UTSA +36 It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTSA and 'sell high' on Texas. UTSA is 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS while Texas is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS. The Longhorns are coming off a huge 31-12 win at Michigan to prove they are playoff contenders once again. That makes this a letdown spot for them as they return home to face UTSA. The Roadrunners are coming off a 49-10 loss at Texas State on the road. While concerning, I believe Texas State is a serious contender to represent the Group of 5 in the college football playoff. It wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score as the Roadrunners were outgained by 186 yards. UTSA was the favorite to win the AAC coming into the season with 14 starters back from a team that went 9-4 last season. There were some big losses at QB and WR, but the Miners are much better than they have shown thus far. Plus, Jeff Traylor is one of the best head coaches in the country and won't let his team pack it in. Of course, it won't be hard to get up to face Texas this week, and they may have been looking ahead to this game. This line would have been less than 4 touchdowns if it had been played in Week 1. Instead, we are getting about 10 points of value here on UTSA +36 due to what we have seen thus far from both of these teams. I know we'll get a big effort from the Roadrunners, and if Texas brings anything less than its 'A-game', it will not cover this inflated number. Bet UTSA Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Appalachian State v. East Carolina +2.5 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 90 h 13 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +2.5 East Carolina head coach Mike Houston has been here before. Not much is expected of the Pirates this season off a 2-10 campaign last year where just 10 starters returned from a team that finished 8-5 and was one of the program's best. Now Houston is hungry to get back to that level and has 14 starters returning and a great recruiting class coming in. The Pirates have been mighty impressive in their 2-0 start this season, and this is one of the better home-field advantages in the country in Greenville when this team is good. It started with a 42-3 win as 31-point favorites over Norfolk State in Week 1. Then last week the Pirates went on the road and upset Old Dominion 20-14 as 1.5-point dogs. That's the same Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road in a 23-19 defeat that saw the Gamecocks score both of their touchdowns off ODU turnovers inside their own 10-yard line. South Carolina went on to beat Kentucky 31-6 on the road last week, making that win over ODU look even more impressive. It was also a bigger blowout than the 20-14 final would indicate. ECU outgained ODU 466 to 287, or 179 total yards. They overcame 4 INT from Jake Garcia. He will be much more comfortable at home, where he threw for 308 yards and 4 TD against Norfolk State in the opener. Appalachian State was among the favorites to win the Sun Belt this season, but I'm not buying it with what I've seen them them thus far. They failed to cover in a 38-10 win over East Tennessee State as 32.5-point favorites in their opener. And last week they were blasted 66-20 by Clemson as 17-point dogs, which is the same Clemson offense that managed just 3 points against Georgia. It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday. You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Clemson had 56 points by halftime! They racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense. Garcia and company can name their number in this one. Wrong team favored. Bet East Carolina Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Appalachian State v. East Carolina OVER 60 | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 53 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on App State/ECU OVER 60 East Carolina has switched its offense into an up-tempo, air raid this season. The Pirates rank 9th in seconds per play and now face a Appalachian State team that also likes to play up-tempo, ranking 30th in seconds per play. This has the makings of a shootout today folks. It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday. You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Clemson had 56 points by halftime in their 66-20 win last week that saw 86 combined points. The Tigers racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense. East Carolina QB Jeff Garcia is making plays but he is also making a lot of mistakes, which could lead to easy points for the Mountaineers. Garcia is completing 65% of his passes with a 4-to-7 TD/INT ratio with 591 yard and 8.0 per attempt. No question this ECU offense is explosive and can pretty much name their number on this Appalachian State defense. The strength of the Mountaineers is their offense and it may be the best unit on the field Saturday. Senior QB Joey Aguilar returns after completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,757 yards with a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season. He has each of his top four receivers back as well, so there is some chemistry here. The Mountaineers have averaged at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons. These teams played in a shootout last season as Appalachian State won 43-28 for 71 combined points. It will be more of the same in the rematch, especially with the Pirates going to the new up-tempo offense this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Notre Dame v. Purdue +11 | 66-7 | Loss | -109 | 117 h 52 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +11 The Purdue Boilermakers are going to prove to be one of the most underrated teams in the Big Ten this season and I'm very high on them to surprise. Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is doing big things here after leading one of the best defenses in the country under Bret Bielema. After having just 10 starters back in a 4-8 campaign in his first season last year, Walters now has 14 starters back in Year 2. He has recruited some tremendous talent here while hitting the transfer portal hard. It looks like he has found a gem in former Texas QB Hudson Card, who went 24-of-25 passing for 273 yards and 4 TD in a season-opening 49-0 win over Indiana State as a 35-point favorite. The Boilermakers had last week off, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Notre Dame, which puts them at a big rest and preparation advantage. Notre Dame came into the season getting a lot of hype, but that hype was mainly due to their defense and having one of the softest schedules in the country. They lived up to the hype with a 23-13 upset win at Texas A&M, but that win was aided by some injuries early in the game to the Aggies' offensive line. The Fighting Irish came back with the upset of the year and lost outright 16-14 to MAC foe Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite last week. That defeat all but eliminates them from playoff contention, and I question how they will get back up off the mat. I know for certain the Fighting Irish should not be laying 11 points on the road to this upstart Purdue team with the offense they are putting on the field. The Fighting Irish are starting 5 underclassmen along the offensive line, and it's a big problem breaking in 5 new starters. Plus one of their starters is already hurt. Former Duke QB Riley Leonard has only rushed for 79 yards on 23 carries for an average of 3.4 per carry through two games. He has only thrown for 321 yards with a 0-to-2 TD/INT ratio thus far as well. He has a banged up left shoulder, and he is an inaccurate passer. This offense has taken a big step back from where they were a year ago. Notre Dame has gone to the wire in two consecutive games and may not have much left in the tank for the Boilermakers, who couldn't be more fresh and prepared for this one. Bet Purdue Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Boston College +17 v. Missouri | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 90 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Boston College +17 Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation. O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach. The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores. Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season. The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright. Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss. Castellanos and company got their revenge in a 28-13 road win at Florida State as 16.5-point underdogs. There was nothing fluky at all about this win as they dominated the point of attack on both offensive and defensive lines. More impressive yet was the Eagles avoiding the letdown just five days later, beating Duquesne 56-0 as 35.5-point favorites. Now the Eagles will be ready to prove themselves against a SEC opponent in Missouri. I think the Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites. Their luck runs out in the covering department this week as they take a big step up in class against Boston College. The Tigers have their SEC opener on deck next week and could be looking ahead as well. It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season. They are starting to get too much respect from the books. Boston College is the team flying under the radar right now and will be looking to put their name on the map this week. Bet Boston College Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +20.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -109 | 113 h 33 m | Show |
20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +20.5 Oklahoma State is coming off the most misleading win of Week 2 after having another misleading win in Week 1. These two results have the Cowboys way overvalued, and they are laying way too many points on the road against Tulsa this week as a result. Oklahoma State is getting a lot of hype heading into the season after finishing 10-4 last season and making it to the Big 12 title game. But it was all smoke and mirrors for the most part as the Cowboys were actually outgained on the season with a defense that gave up 442 yards per game. They were outgained by 17 yards per game in Big 12 play alone. This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys with the lofty preseason expectations that come with returning 19 starters from that team. That's especially the case after a misleading 44-20 win over South Dakota State as a 13-point favorite in the opener, which is a SDSU team ranked No. 1 in the FCS. The Cowboys only outgained the Jackrabbits 394 to 388, or by 6 total yards. The Jackrabbits actually outgained them 6.0 to 5.5 yards per play as well. They held the Cowboys to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground and held 1st-team All-American RB Ollie Gordon to 126 yards on 28 carries. This game was much closer than the 44-20 final. Then last week, Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 (OT) at home despite getting outgained 648 to 385 by the Razorbacks, or by 263 total yards. No question Arkansas deserved to win that game but was -2 in turnovers and missed a couple field goals. After using a lot of energy in that OT win, this is now a flat spot for the Cowboys going on the road to face Tulsa. It is also a sandwich spot with their huge Big 12 opener on deck against Utah next week, which could decide which of those two teams wins the conference. The Cowboys just want to get out of here with a win and they aren't concerned about margin at all. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Tulsa as they were Arkansas, or as they will be against Utah. It was a rebuilding season in Year 1 last season for head coach Kevin Wilson. He only had 9 starters back and Tulsa went just 4-8. But now he has a lot of his players in place and has recruited some very good talent here. I like what I've seen from the Golden Hurricane thus far in Year 2. It started with a 62-28 win over Northwestern State in the opener. And last week the Golden Hurricane gave Arkansas State all they wanted in a 28-24 road loss as 9-point dogs. That's a very good Arkansas State team under Butch Jones and I think they contend for a Sun Belt title, so that wasn't a bad loss at all. Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Francis has been impressive, comlpeting 67.2% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. Avant, Jackson and Watkins have combined for over 300 rushing yards as this is a nice three-headed monster in the backfield. Kamdyn Benjamin was their leading receiver last year and has 11 receptions for 196 yards and two TD thus far through two games. They will have success against a Oklahoma State defense that is allowing 518 yards per game through two games, including 4.7 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per attempt through the air. They will never be out of this game and the back door will be open if we need it, but I don't think we will. The Golden Hurricane get to play the 'little brother' role here and will simply want it more. Bet Tulsa Saturday. |
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09-14-24 | LSU v. South Carolina UNDER 50.5 | Top | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 53 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on LSU/South Carolina UNDER 50.5 The forecast could help us cash this UNDER 50.5 ticket between LSU and South Carolina on Saturday. There is a 60% chance of rain and 10 MPH winds in the forecast. I don't think it will matter given both teams have defenses that are ahead of their offenses thus far. South Carolina looks like a dead nuts UNDER team. The Gamecocks managed just 288 total yards in their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener. They had two drives start inside the Old Dominion 10-yard line due to turnovers too to get their only two touchdowns. Last week, South Carolina beat Kentucky 31-6 in an absolute slug fest. The Gamecocks only managed 252 total yards and held the Wildcats to 183 total yards. They are now allowing just 244 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play through two games. LSU managed to hold USC to 27 points in the opener on a fast turf. That's the same USC team that hung 48 points on Utah State last week. The Tigers lost their Heisman Trophy winner at QB in Jaden Daniels along with all of their top playmakers. They also lost their offensive coordinator, and now they are a much more defensive-minded team in 2024. South Carolina ranks 79th in seconds per play going 27.8 seconds in between snaps thus far. QB LaNorris Sellers is one of the worst Power 4 QB's in the country. But 8 starters are back on defense including six of their top seven tacklers for defensive-minded Shane Beamer. But the big change is LSU, which ranks 116th in seconds per play at 30.9 seconds in between snaps. They have changed from an up-tempo team last season to a ball control team this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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09-13-24 | UNLV +7.5 v. Kansas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 124 h 57 m | Show |
20* UNLV/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on UNLV +7.5 UNLV went 9-5 and made the Mountain West Championship Game in Barry Odom's first season on the job last year. Odom has put this team on the map and players want to come play for him. He has 11 returning starters plus a tremendous recruiting class this season, and the Rebels are MWC contenders once again. That was evident with their 27-7 upset win at Houston in the opener as 3.5-point dogs. That's the same Houston team that went on to nearly upset Oklahoma on the road last week in a 16-12 loss as 27.5-point dogs, making that win over the Cougars all the more impressive. UNLV easily could have had a letdown against Utah Tech last week off the Houston win and with Kansas on deck, but they showed great maturity in dismantling Utah Tech 72-14 as 41.5-point favorites. Now they want revenge on Kansas after losing 49-36 to the Jayhawks in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last year, adding fuel to the fire. UNLV QB Matthew Sluka is a dual-threat that looks for contact from defenders, and his team follows his lead. Sluka has a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio passing through two games, while also leading the team in rushing with 129 yards and a score while averaging 6.4 per attempt. The Rebels are averaging 7.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense and are vastly improved on D. Kansas came into the season ranked and they probably didn't deserve to be. They went 9-4 last season and expectations were high, so it's a good time to 'sell high' on them early in the season. Kansas failed to cover as a 49.5-point favorite in their opener against Lindenwood as they only scored 48 points. Then they promptly lost 23-17 as 5-point road favorites at Illinois against a Fighting Illini team that was expected to be down this year. QB Jalon Daniels has been solid when he has been healthy, but he has been through so many injuries you know it's in his head. Jason Bean played well in his place last year and moved on to the NFL, and I'm not sure Daniels is better than Bean was. Daniels is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 3-to-4 TD/INT ratio while only rushing for 35 yards on 10 carries thus far despite facing a weak schedule. A sneaky loss for Kansas this offseason was offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State. Daniels and company look a bit lost without him thus far. I think this improved UNLV defense can hold them in check as well and possibly pull off the outright upset Friday night. Kansas should be the fresher team after the blowout win over Utah Tech, while Kansas was in a war with physical Illinois. UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games. Bet UNLV Friday. |