Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-26-23 | Wolves v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge on the Minnesota Timberwolves. They knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last year in the play-in round with a 120-95 victory at home. They also beat the Thunder 106-103 at home in their first meeting this season. But now the Thunder finally get the Timberwolves at home in Oklahoma City, and they will get their revenge tonight. The Thunder are 18-9 SU & 18-8-1 ATS this season, including 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS at home. The Timberwolves have just one loss at home all season, but five losses on the road. Minnesota could be without Karl-Anthony Towns, who is questionable. Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less. The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing three consecutive home games. Bet the Thunder Tuesday. |
|||||||
12-26-23 | Pacers v. Rockets -3 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -3 The Houston Rockets are 12-2 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game at home this year, where they have been grossly undervalued. That is the case again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over the struggling Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have struggled since the in-season tournament. They are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming at home against the lowly Hornets. They lost by 14 in Milwaukee, by 14 in Washington, by 18 in Minnesota and by 13 in Memphis in their four road games during this stretch. While the Rockets are fully healthy, the Pacers will be without Bruce Brown (11.6 PPG), who was their biggest offseason acquisition. Indiana is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after two straight games where they allowed 50% shooting or higher. Houston is 15-2 ATS following an ATS win this season. Bet the Rockets Tuesday. |
|||||||
12-25-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Lakers | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Lakers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5 The Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA, period. They should be more than 2.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers today. The Celtics aren't distracted and are on a business trip here in the midst of a four-game road trip. After opening it with a OT loss at Golden State, the Celtics have been on a mission since. They dominated the Kings 144-119 in Sacramento despite being on the 2nd of a back-to-back and off an OT game. They had the next two days off and then crushed the Clippers 145-108 in Los Angeles on Saturday. Now they will be rested and ready to go against the hated Lakers today. The Lakers have been terrible since winning the in-season tournament. They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games since the tournament. They are banged up and distracted right now. They have been on the road for eight of their last nine games and haven't been able to spend much time with family at home. They have a lot of obligations to deal with back home for Christmas, which is a big distraction for them. I like the mental state of the Celtics much more heading into this one. The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games following a road win. Boston is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 road games with a line of +3 to -3. The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last five meetings with the Lakers. Bet the Celtics Monday. |
|||||||
12-25-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 233 | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Nuggets OVER 233 The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II. They are even more of a dead nuts OVER team without them, and they have been for weeks now. The OVER is 14-6 in Warriors last 20 games overall. They have scored at least 118 points in five consecutive games while allowing at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games. The Warriors and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in eight consecutive games. The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy right now and potent offensively when that's the case. They have scored at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games overall. I think both teams can get to 115-plus in this one, which will lead to us easily cashing this OVER 233 ticket. Golden State is 11-2 OVER when revenging a loss this season. The Warriors are 13-4 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season. Golden State is 14-4 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Blazers +9.5 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 Golden State is without its two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II. The Warriors can't be this big of a favorite over anyone right now given their current state. In fact, Golden State has just one win by more than 11 points all season! They have just one win by more than 6 points in their last 20 games, making for a 19-1 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 9.5-point spread. That 11-point win came against the Wizards last night who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Now it's the Warriors who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and on tired legs since they are short-handed. The Warriors could also be caught looking ahead to their game against defending champion Denver on Christmas Day and not take the Blazers seriously tonight. The Blazers are playing much more competitive basketball here of late with their last three games all decided by 5 points or less. They upset the Suns, lost by 1 to the Wizards and lost by 4 to the Warriors. That makes this a revenge spot for the Blazers as well as they just lost to the Warriors on December 17th. They will be the more motivated team. A big reason the Blazers are playing a lot better of late is that they have finally gotten healthier with Brogdon, Simons, Henderson, Grant and Ayton all missing some time this year. But all five are healthy now. The Warriors are just 3-10-1 ATS at home this season and have been consistently overvalued at home. Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us given the tough rest spot is asking too much. Bet the Blazers Saturday. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Cavs v. Bulls -5 | 109-95 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -5 The Chicago Bulls are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season since Zach LaVine got hurt. They are playing team basketball, playing smarter on offense with more 3's and layups, and I expect them to keep this momentum going tonight against the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is without its top three scorers in Mitchell (27.7 PPG, 5.5 APG), Garland (20.7 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Mobley (16.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) right now. Sam Merrill has been playing well at PG in their absence but even he is questionable tonight as well. The Cavaliers stand no chance of being competitive on the road against the Bulls without Mitchell, Garland and Mobley. Bet the Bulls Saturday. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Lakers v. Thunder -3.5 | 129-120 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -3.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder have been grossly undervalued for three seasons now and remain undervalued this season. They are 18-8 SU & 18-7-1 ATS this season. The Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating this season trailing only the 76ers and Celtics. The Los Angeles Lakers won the in-season tournament and have just tanked since as they haven't bene as motivated. The Lakers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming against the Spurs by 3. They also lost to the Spurs by 14, lost to the Knicks at home by 5, lost by 16 at Chicago and lost by 7 at Minnesota. Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Lakers as James, Davis and Hachimura are all questionable for this one. The Thunder blasted the Lakers 133-110 as 5.5-point home favorites in their lone meeting with them this season on November 30th. It will be more of the same tonight, this time as even shorter 3.5-point favorites. The Thunder are the much fresher team playing their 2nd game in 5 days and just their 6th game in 15 days. The Lakers will be playing in their 7th different city in 12 days. Bet the Thunder Saturday. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Grizzlies -115 v. Hawks | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies ML -115 JA Morant showed no signs of rust in leading the Grizzlies to a big comeback win in a 115-113 victory at New Orleans as 8-point dogs in his return from suspension. Morant had 34 points including the game-winner at the buzzer in a dramatic return. He means everything to this team's success, and I think the Grizzlies are a 'bet on' team in the immediate future because of it. Morant had 20 points and 8 assists in his second game back while Bane had 31 and Jackson Jr. had 21 as Morant just makes everything easier on his teammates. We're getting an undervalued Grizzlies team due to a poor 8-19 start this season. But now they have no margin for error the rest of the way and have to really go on a run if they want to make the playoffs. I expect Morant and company to continue making a run from here on out. Now the Grizzlies get to face a tired Atlanta Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. Young and Bey both played nearly 40 minutes last night while Murray played 34 in a 113-122 loss in Miami. The Hawks are short-handed right now without Jalen Johnson and AJ Griffin, plus De'Andre Hunter is questionable. Atlanta is 7-21 ATS in all games this season, including a dreadful 1-10 ATS at home. The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total of 230 or higher this season. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive road games this season. Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday. |
|||||||
12-22-23 | Wizards +12.5 v. Warriors | 118-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5 The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three against playoff contenders. They upset the Pacers by 14 as 8.5-point home dogs, took the Suns to the wire in a 4-point road loss at 13-point dogs, covered in a 12-point loss at Sacramento as 14-point dogs and upset the Blazers as 4.5-point road dogs. They are also a solid 11-6 ATS on the road this season, while the Warriors are 3-9 ATS at home. This number has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Wizards will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. But they had two days off prior to the Portland game, so they should still be pretty fresh. And they are nearly at full strength right now and one of the deepest teams in the NBA playing nine different players significant minutes last night. I think the spot is actually worse for the Warriors, who are coming off an upset win over the Celtics in OT on Thursday, which now sets them up for a letdown spot. Golden State is without its two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II, plus Brandin Podziemski is questionable after leaving the Boston game with a back injury. The Warriors can't be double-digit favorites over anyone right now given their current state. In fact, Golden State has just one win by more than 11 points all season! Their largest margin of victory in their last 19 games has been 6 points! They haven't won any of their last 23 games by more than 11 points, making for a 23-0 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 12.5-point spread. Golden State has beaten Washington by more than 9 points just once in their last nine meetings. Jordan Poole wants some revenge here on the team that let him go as well. Bet the Wizards Friday. |
|||||||
12-22-23 | Mavs v. Rockets -8.5 | Top | 96-122 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -8.5 I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory following three consecutive losses to the Bucks, Cavaliers and Hawks. They took all three to the wire in single-digit losses but came up just short. Now the Rockets will take out their frustration on the short-handed Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks were already struggling even when Luka Doncic was healthy because they were missing so many other key guys. Now they are without Doncic too, and the future is grim for the Mavericks until some of these guys get back healthy. Indeed, the Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 18 at home to Minnesota, by 26 at Denver and by 9 at home to the Clippers. The Mavericks will be without Doncic (32.7 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.4 RPG), Irving (23.0 PPG, 5.2 APG), Lively II (8.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG), Exum (8.6 PPG) and Green (6.9 PPG) tonight. They don't stand a chance of even being competitive against the motivated Rockets, who won't be taking them lightly given they have lost three straight. The Rockets are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game. Houston is 11-1 ATS after playing a home game this season. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Rockets Friday. |
|||||||
12-22-23 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/76ers UNDER 230.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting between the 76ers and Raptors already this season. The first two meetings saw 221 and 213 combined points, and it will be another defensive struggle tonight. In fact, the 76ers and Raptors have combined for 229 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 230.5-point total. Most of these meetings haven't even sniffed this total with 213 or fewer combined points in seven of those 11 meetings. The Raptors are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 21st in pace, 21st in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating. The 76ers rank 2nd in defensive rating which has been the key to their success this season. The 76ers may not have PG De'Anthony Melton, who left their last game with a thigh injury and is questionable, which would also help us cash this UNDER ticket. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Spurs v. Bulls OVER 228.5 | 95-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bulls OVER 228.5 The Chicago Bulls have undergone a philosophical change of late that has led to them playing their best basketball of the season mainly because of their improvements on offense. The Bulls have scored at least 106 points in 10 consecutive games and 120 or more six times during this stretch. They are still a poor defensive team ranking 20th in defensive rating. The OVER is 11-2 in Bulls last 13 games overall. Now they take on a Spurs team that is 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 241, 244, 256 and 251 combined points scored. The Spurs rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating, making them a great OVER team. They also played the Bulls to an OVER on December 8th in a game that saw 233 combined points. In fact, the Bulls and Spurs have now combined for 229 combined points or more in each of their last five meetings, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 228.5-point total. It will be more of the same tonight with 230-plus combined points. The Spurs are 10-1 OVER after playing a road game this season. The Bulls are 27-13 OVER in their last 40 non-conference games. San Antonio is 7-0 OVER in non-conference games this season. The Spurs are 10-1 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Pacers v. Grizzlies OVER 246 | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Grizzlies OVER 246 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating. The OVER is 21-6 in all Pacers games this season including 254 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall. Books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough. That's the case again tonight with this 246-point total against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has been an under team to this point, but they quickly flip to an over team with the return of JA Morant from suspension. He has 34 points in their upset win of the New Orleans Pelicans in his return to action on Tuesday. He makes everything easier on his teammates with his ability to break down a defense. Indiana is 10-1 OVER in all road games this season and we're seeing an average of 259.1 combined points per game in all Indiana road games. The Pacers are 18-4 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Celtics v. Kings -115 | 144-119 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -115 The Boston Celtics are in one of the worst spots I've seen all season. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after going to OT with the Warriors last night. All five starters played at least 35 minutes last night, including 40-plus from Tatum, Brown and White. They won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. The Celtics haven't been playing very well on the road as it is. They are actually 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. Their two wins came by 3 as 9-point favorites at Toronto and by 2 as 11-point favorites at Memphis. They lost outright as 8.5-point favorites at Charlotte, lost outright by 17 as 5.5-point favorites at Orlando, lost outright by 10 as 4.5-point favorites at Indiana and lost outright by 6 as 5-point favorites at Golden State last night. The Kings are rolling at home right now going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games winning by 13 over the Nets, by 5 over the Thunder, by 21 over the Jazz and by 12 over the Wizards. They also recently beat the defending champion Nuggets at home. They are 10-3 SU at home this season. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Celtics v. Kings OVER 233.5 | Top | 144-119 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Kings OVER 233.5 The Sacramento Kings rank 8th in pace, 12th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating. The pace and offensive rating would be higher if not for several missed games from De'Aaron Fox. But they are a dead nuts OVER team when Fox is healthy, and they are fully healthy as a team right now. The Kings just combined for 274 points with the Wizards last time out and 249 with the Nets and 251 with the Thunder in three of their last four home games. This total is just too low tonight for a Sacramento home game. That's especially the case when you consider they will be taking on one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA in the Boston Celtics. The Celtics rank 6th in offensive rating. They combined with 242 points with the Warriors at the end of regulation last night and they didn't even have offensive weapon Kristaps Porzingis, who likely sat out that game knowing he would play in this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Sacramento is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games following two consecutive wins. The OVER is 37-20 in Kings last 57 home games. Sacramento is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Clippers -3 v. Mavs | Top | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -3 The Los Angeles Clippers are showing how dangerous they can be when fully healthy. They are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and I fully expect them to extend that winning streak to nine games tonight in Dallas. The Mavericks are not healthy. They are without Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber right now. That puts a lot on Luka Doncic's shoulders to carry the scoring load, and while he's playing at an MVP level, he cannot beat this loaded Clippers team on his own. It did not go well for Doncic and the short-handed Mavericks in two games against two other elite teams here recently. They lost 119-101 at home to the Timberwolves three games ago and 130-104 to the Nuggets last time out. I fully expect them to get blasted again tonight against another title contender in the Clippers. Bet the Clippers Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Lakers v. Bulls OVER 224.5 | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Bulls OVER 224.5 The Chicago Bulls have undergone a philosophical change of late that has led to them playing their best basketball of the season mainly because of their improvements on offense. The Bulls have scored at least 106 points in nine consecutive games and 120 or more five times during this stretch. They are still a poor defensive team ranking 22nd in defensive rating. The Los Angeles Lakers are also playing very poor defensively since winning the in-season tournament. They are 3-1 OVER in their four games since with 252, 241, 244 and 223 combined points. They have allowed 127, 119, 129 and 114 points in those four games. But the Lakers have scored at least 115 pints in five of their last six games, including 122 or more four times. The Lakers are 40-22 OVER in their last 62 road games. The Bulls are 26-13 OVER in their last 39 non-conference games. The Lakers and Bulls have combined for at least 224 points in four consecutive meetings and 224 or more in seven of their last eight meetings with the OVER going 7-1 in those eight games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -3 The Houston Rockets have the biggest home/road splits of any team in the NBA. They are 2-10 SU & 5-7 ATS on the road, but an impressive 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS at home. The Rockets are coming off consecutive road losses to the Bucks and Cavs by single-digits, so they return home motivated for a victory tonight. They take on an Atlanta Hawks team that is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA. The Hawks are 11-15 SU & 6-20 ATS this season. That includes 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and they are once again getting too much respect here as only 3-point road dogs to the Rockets, who are the much superior and more complete team. The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Hawks rank 27th, and that is the biggest difference between these teams. One plays defense and the other does not. Plus, injuries are mounting up for the Hawks as Jalen Johnson remains out while both Bogdan Bogdanovic and AJ Griffin are questionable. The Rockets look to be fully healthy right now. Atlanta is 1-11 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season. Houston is 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. Bet the Rockets Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Jazz v. Cavs OVER 227 | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Cavaliers OVER 227 The Cleveland Cavaliers are more of an OVER team than most realize because they brought in a couple shooters and are attempting more 3-pointers and playing faster this season. That has been on display here of late as they combined with 244 points with the Rockets at the end of regulation, 246 points with the Hawks, 223 with the Celtics in the rematch and 233 with the Celtics in the first meeting in their last four games coming in. The Utah Jazz are an OVER team as long as their best player in Lauri Markkanen is on the floor, and he has been healthy here of late. The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233, 229, 236, 230 and 254 points in their last five games coming in. As you can see, this total of 227 is too low based on what both these teams have done of late. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Hornets v. Pacers OVER 248.5 | Top | 113-144 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 248.5 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. The OVER is 20-6 in all Pacers games this season including 254 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall. Now they take on a Charlotte Hornets team that doesn't mind getting up and down. It's also a Hornets team that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating, so these are two of the three worst defensive teams in the NBA to this point. Indiana is 11-1 OVER following a loss this season. The Pacers are 8-1 OVER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 231.5 | Top | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 231.5 The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II. They are going to be a dead nuts OVER team because they don't play defense without these two, but they are still a pretty good offensive team without them as neither provides much on that end. The Warriors are 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 11 of those 14 games. This total of 231.5 is too low for a game involving the Warriors right now. Each of their last five games have seen 232 or more combined points. Now they face a Boston Celtics team that is extremely efficient on the offensive end, ranking 6th in the NBA in offensive rating. The Celtics have scored at least 112 points in nine consecutive games while going 8-1 over that stretch. They score 117.6 points per game on 47.8% shooting this season. Golden State is 13-3 OVER vs. good shooting teams making 46% or better this season. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
12-18-23 | Knicks v. Lakers OVER 234.5 | 114-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5 The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing C Mitchell Robinson to injury. He is their eraser inside defensively but he doesn't provide much offensively. The Knicks have had to go more small ball since losing him. The OVER is 8-0 in Knicks last eight games overall. We have seen 230 or more combined points in seven of those eight games. That includes 261 combined points with Phoenix and 266 combined points with the Clippers in their last two games. It should be more of the same against the Lakers tonight. The Lakers are in a letdown phase since winning the in-season tournament. They have just quit playing defense. The OVER is 3-0 in Lakers last three games overall with 252, 241 and 244 combined points. They allowed 127 to the Mavericks, 129 to the Spurs and 119 to the Spurs. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
12-18-23 | Clippers v. Pacers OVER 245.5 | 151-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Pacers OVER 245.5 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating this season. The OVER is 19-6 in all Pacers games this season. The Los Angeles Clippers are showing how potent they can be offensively when fully healthy, which has been the case during their 7-game winning streak and is the case tonight. The Clippers have scored at least 111 points in nine consecutive games. They have combined for 266 points with the Knicks and 259 points with the Blazers recently, and another high-scoring affair will be the result tonight against the Pacers. These teams combined for 261 points in their most recent meeting. The Clippers are 33-20 OVER in their last 53 road games, including 20-6 OVER in their last 26 road games after going over the total in their previous game. The Pacers are 59-35 OVER in their last 94 home games. The Pacers are 10-1 OVER following a loss this season. Indiana is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 home games vs. a good team (60-70% winning percentage). Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
12-18-23 | Clippers -3 v. Pacers | Top | 151-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -3 The Los Angeles Clippers are showing how dangerous they can be when fully healthy. They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and I fully expect them to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight in Indiana. The Pacers are going through a letdown phase after coming up just short in the in-season tournament, losing in the championship to the Lakers. They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 14 at Milwaukee, by 14 as 8.5-point favorites at Washington and by 18 at Minnesota. I always like fading teams in their first home game back from a long road trip. Well, the Pacers have been on the road since December 7th dating back to the in-season tournament in Las Vegas. There are a lot of distractions they have to deal with at home when returning from a long road trip. Plus, their two best players in Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner are questionable. Bet the Clippers Monday. |
|||||||
12-17-23 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 231.5 | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Blazers OVER 231.5 The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II. They are going to be a dead nuts OVER team because they don't play defense without these two, but they are still a pretty good offensive team without them as neither provides much on that end. The Warriors are 10-3 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 10 of those. This total of 231.5 is too low for a game involving the Warriors right now. That's especially the case when you consider the Blazers have gotten healthy lately and have been an OVER team themselves since. The OVER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games overall with 236 or more combined points in all four. They have a bunch of talented young guards and will be a fun team to watch moving forward. Golden State is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 December road games. The OVER is 12-3 in Warriors last 15 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
12-17-23 | Magic +9 v. Celtics | 97-114 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9 I love the spot for the Orlando Magic today. They will be out for revenge from a 111-128 loss in Boston on Friday night. They were closing 5-point dogs in that game, and after getting blown out, they are now 9-point dogs in the rematch. That's too big of an adjustment up. The Celtics won't be motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in 3 days, so they are primed for a letdown. Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. The Celtics have just two wins by more than 10 points in their last 14 games overall. The Magic are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Magic are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright upsets as 13.5, 10.5, 7.5 and 5.5-point dogs. The Magic are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings as well with that 17-point loss the only one that came by more than 6 points. Bet the Magic Sunday. |
|||||||
12-16-23 | Jazz +10 v. Kings | 104-125 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10 The Utah Jazz are getting healthier and playing well again as a result. They are coming off consecutive upset wins as underdogs over the New York Knicks and Portland Trail Blazers. They recently got both Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler back from injury, and these are arguably their two most important players. Now the Jazz are catching too many points on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight. De'Aaron Fox is questionable to play and he means everything to the Kings' success. I still like the Jazz even if he does play, but this line will crash if he doesn't. Utah has just one loss by more than 9 points in its last 35 meetings with Sacramento. That makes for a 34-1 system backing the Jazz pertaining to this 10-point spread. Bet the Jazz Saturday. |
|||||||
12-16-23 | Nets v. Warriors OVER 234.5 | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Warriors OVER 234.5 The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II. They are going to be a dead nuts OVER team because they don't play defense without these two, but they are still a pretty good offensive team without them as neither provides much on that end. The Warriors are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 234 or more combined points in nine of those. The Nets are the definition of team basketball with multiple guys that can beat you on any given night. The Warriors will have a hard time adjusting to try and stop the Nets, who have seven players averaging double-digits scoring. The Nets and Warriors combined for 256 and 236 points in their last two meetings. Golden State is 12-3 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
12-16-23 | Pacers v. Wolves -7.5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves are loaded this season. They are 18-5 SU including 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game. The Timberwolves will make easy work of the Indiana Pacers tonight. While the Timberwolves are fully healthy, the Pacers could be without MVP candidate Tyrese Haliburton tonight. They are already without PG Andrew Nembhard and PF Jalen Smith. Haliburton suffered a knee injury in a 123-137 loss at Washington last night. Now the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days. This is a tired Pacers team after making it to the championship game of the in-season tournament. That has started to show in their last two games losing by 14 as 6.5-point dogs in Milwaukee and then getting upset by 14 as 8.5-point favorites in Washington last night, failing to cover the spread by 22.5 points. The Timberwolves will be the much fresher team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They are also the much better defensive team ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive rating while the Pacers are 28th. Plays against road underdogs (Indiana) - off two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that's off a road win by 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pacers. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher. Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Bet the Timberwolves Saturday. |
|||||||
12-15-23 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 231.5 | 139-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 231.5 The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing C Mitchell Robinson to injury. He is their eraser inside defensively but he doesn't provide much offensively. The Knicks have had to go more small ball since losing him. The OVER is 6-0 in Knicks last six games overall. We have seen 230 or more combined points in five of those six games. Now they face a Phoenix Suns team that finally has Durant, Booker and Beal healthy at the same time for the first time all season. They are going to be an offensive juggernaut moving forward when these three are on the court at the same time. Phoenix is 13-4 OVER as a favorite this season. The Suns are 11-3 OVER vs. poor defensive teams allowing 46% shooting or higher this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
12-15-23 | Lakers v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +7.5 I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They get a shot at quick revenge here after losing 122-119 to the Lakers on Wednesday. Now they get to play the Lakers here two days later and go from 3.5-point dogs to 7.5-point dogs tonight. While the Spurs will be motivated for revenge, the Lakers will have a hard time getting up emotionally to beat the Spurs by margin again tonight. The Lakers just won the In-Season Tournament, and it's no surprise they are 0-2 ATS in their first two games out of the tournament as they just aren't as motivated to win these regular season games. Don't be surprised if they lose outright tonight. The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and playing competitive basketball with their last nine games all decided by 15 points or less, including six by single-digits. Darvin Ham is 6-18 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers. Bet the Spurs Friday. |
|||||||
12-15-23 | Magic +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-128 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5 The Orlando Magic have a big rest advantage over the Boston Celtics tonight. The Magic have had the last three days off while the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-107 win over the Cavaliers last night. This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Celtics. They have had some guys banged up and playing through injury, so don't be surprised if they rest one or multiple starters tonight. The Magic have been grossly undervalued all season especially of late. The Magic are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are nearly at full strength and one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they will have an advantage over the Celtics when they go to their bench, which they will need to given how tired their starters are right now. Orlando has absolutely owned Boston in recent meetings. In fact, the Magic are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with four outright upsets as 13.5, 10.5, 7.5 and 5.5-point dogs. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings as well with their lone SU loss coming by 6 points. Boston is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 home games when revenging a road loss. Bet the Magic Friday. |
|||||||
12-15-23 | Pacers v. Wizards OVER 258.5 | 123-137 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Wizards OVER 258.5 Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers travel to face the Washington Wizards. The Pacers rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating. The Wizards rank 2nd in pace and 30th in defensive rating. The Pacers are 18-5 OVER in all games this season while the Wizards are 15-8 OVER in all games. These teams met on October 25th earlier this season and the result was a 143-120 victory for the Pacers and 263 combined points. It will be more of the same tonight. Indiana is 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Indiana is 9-0 OVER in road games this season. The Pacers are 9-0 OVER off a loss this season. Washington is 9-0 OVER in its last nine home games after a combined score of 245 or more points in two consecutive games. These four trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
12-14-23 | Thunder +2 v. Kings | 123-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +2 The Oklahoma City Thunder are better than the Sacramento Kings this season and should not be underdogs to them, even on the road. The Thunder are 15-7 SU & 15-6-1 ATS this season and outscoring their opponents by 7.6 points per game. The Kings are 13-9 SU & 12-10 ATS this season and actually getting outscored by 0.6 points per game. The Thunder rank 3rd in net rating (+7.6) which combines their offensive and defensive rating. The Kings rank 20th (-0.5). The Thunder are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case. They weren't fully healthy when they lost 105-98 in Sacramento in their first meeting this season. I know they want revenge on the Kings, especially since they will be reminded that they have lost seven consecutive meetings in this series overall. That's why we will get a max effort from OKC tonight, and it will be good enough to pull off the outright upset. Bet the Thunder Thursday. |
|||||||
12-14-23 | Nets +9.5 v. Nuggets | 101-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 The Brooklyn Nets have been grossly undervalued all season. They are 13-10 SU & 17-5-1 ATS this season. They are the definition of team basketball with any of their five starters that can beat you on any given night, and also one of the best benches in the league. This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Nets are on the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning outright at Phoenix against a Suns team that had Durant, Booker and Beal on the court at the same time for the first time all season. But this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days, so they should still be pretty fresh. There will be no letdown here for the Nets facing the defending champion Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have been grossly overvalued after winning that title last year. They are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They will be without starter Kentavious-Caldwell Pope tonight, and their lack of depth this season is a big reason for their struggles. The Nets are 8-1 ATS when the total is 230 or higher this season. Asking the Nuggets to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much. Bet the Nets Thursday. |
|||||||
12-14-23 | Cavs +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They get a chance at quick revenge here after losing 113-120 in Boston on Tuesday. Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later. The Cavaliers will clearly be the more motivated team, while the Celtics will have a hard time getting up to beat this team again. The Celtics aren't really blowing anyone out here of late. They have just one win by more than 10 points in their last 12 games. Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us in a letdown spot is asking too much. Keep in mind the Celtics made 20 more free throws than the Cavaliers did in that last meeting and still only won by 7. They got the benefit of the whistles in that game, and I don't see that being the case again. Cleveland is actually 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Boston with just one loss by more than 9 points. That one loss came by only 10 points as well. That makes for a 9-1 system backing the Celtics pertaining to this 9.5-point spread. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - after scoring 120 points or more in two consecutive games are 192-124 (60.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against home teams (Boston) - who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game in the month of December are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Cavaliers Thursday. |
|||||||
12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -6.5 | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. They have lost to the Pacers in both meetings this season and both were away from home. That includes their 128-119 loss to the Pacers in the in-season tournament that knocked them out in the semifinals. It's safe to say they want revenge, and we will get their best effort tonight as they get them at home for the first time this season. The Pacers were in a letdown spot after losing to the Lakers in the finals of the in-season tournament, but unfortunately the Detroit Pistons haven't won a game in over a month and couldn't take advantage. The Bucks will take advantage, and I think this is where we finally see the letdown for the Pacers, especially after just beating the Bucks a week ago. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat them in this game as they were in the in-season tournament. This one has blowout written all over it. Bet the Bucks Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-13-23 | Hornets +8 v. Heat | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8 I love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight. They have a chance at quick revenge here after losing 114-116 to the Heat on Monday night. Now they travel to Miami to face the Heat here just two days later on Wednesday. I like them to stay within this inflated number at the very least and possibly pull off the upset. The Heat are in no position to be laying 8 points to the Hornets right now. They are without Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Haywood Highsmith. They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Adebayo is arguably their most important player, at least even with Jimmy Butler. The Hornets have been playing some very competitive basketball with four of their last five games decided by 6 points or fewer. They rarely get blown out by the Heat, either. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. All four were decided by 6 points or less with two outright upsets by the Hornets. Miami is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Heat are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points. Miami is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games when playing against a bad team (25-40% winning percentage). They Heat are the classic team that plays to the level of their competition, and they won't be motivated at all to beat the Hornets for a 2nd time in 3 days. Bet the Hornets Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-12-23 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 234.5 | 99-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Kings/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5 The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 11th in pace, 12th in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating. They are fully healthy right now and as long as De'Aaron Fox is on the court, they are going to be an OVER team. They have scored at least 112 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Los Angels Clippers are showing their offensive potential when fully healthy, which is the case right now. They have scored at least 111 points in five of their last six games overall. They are coming off a 132-127 win over Portland last night. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Kings. They combined for 248 points in their lone meeting this season, and 255 and 351 points in their final two meetings last season. The 351 was an OT game that still saw 306 points at the end of regulation. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
12-12-23 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Celtics OVER 223.5 Both the Cavaliers and Celtics are more OVER teams than people realize, especially when healthy. The Celtics are loaded on offense with Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis and White. They have all five guys healthy right now for basically the first time this season. They rank 7th in offensive rating and are probably the most efficient offensive team in the NBA when healthy. The Celtics just showed what they are capable of with a 133-123 victory over the Knicks last time out with a total of just 221. This total has been set too low at 223.5 against the Cavaliers tonight as well. Cleveland has more shooting this season with the additions of Strus and Niang, and they could get both Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert back tonight, who sat out last night but are upgraded to questionable today. Those two combine for nearly 31 points per game. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Cleveland and Boston. We have seen 227 or more combined points in all four meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
12-11-23 | Bulls +11.5 v. Bucks | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5 The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall since losing Zach LaVine to injury. It's no surprise nobody wants to trade for this guy. The Bulls are playing better team basketball now and it is paying off. The Bulls upset the Bucks 120-113 as 9.5-point dogs, upset the Pelicans 124-118 as 3-point dogs, crushed the Hornets 111-100 as 5-point favorites and rolled to a 121-112 victory at San Antonio as 2-point favorites. Now the Bulls are catching too many points against the Bucks again tonight. The Bucks will have questionable motivation here after being on the big stage and losing in the semifinals to the Pacers in the in-season tournament in their last game. They won't be nearly as motivated here in their first game back from the tournament, which will help the Bulls keep this one close. The Bulls are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks which have all six been decided by 13 points or fewer, so they tend to take the Bucks to the wire every time. Billy Donovan is 42-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as a head coach. Bet the Bulls Monday. |
|||||||
12-11-23 | Nuggets v. Hawks OVER 241 | 129-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Hawks OVER 241 The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating. The OVER is 6-2-1 in Atlanta home games this season where they are scoring 125.3 points per game and allowing 126.1 points per game with an average of 251.4 combined points per game. The Hawks and 76ers just combined for 239 points last game in a game Trae Young sat out with an illness. But Young returns tonight and he is the key to them being an OVER team. Now they take on a Denver Nuggets team that recently got Jamal Murray back, and he is the key to them being an OVER team when he's on the court. Mike Malone is 67-38 OVER off a home loss as the coach of Denver. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
12-11-23 | Cavs v. Magic -120 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -120 I like the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight. They want revenge from a 111-121 loss in Cleveland on November 6th just five days ago. Now the Magic get the Cavaliers at home this time around. The Magic are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS at home this season. They have beaten the Lakers by 19, the Bucks by 15, the Nuggets by 5 and the Celtics by 17 at home this season. So it's not like they are beating up on a bunch of bad teams. The Cavaliers will be missing two key players tonight in Evan Mobley (16.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) and Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG). They should not be getting this much respect from the books without these two. The Magic have won 9 consecutive home games and they make it 10 in a row tonight. Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday. |
|||||||
12-09-23 | Pacers v. Lakers UNDER 241.5 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
20* Pacers/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 241.5 It's no surprise that both semifinal games of the In-Season Tournament went UNDER the total. These teams are actually playing defense in these win-or-go-home games. It also helps that there's $500,000 on the line to each player on the winning team. More defense will be played tonight in the championship game between the Pacers and Lakers with both teams desperate to win this tournament and collect that money. I've been backing Pacers overs all season, but now is the time to take a Pacers under. The Lakers rank 7th in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating this season. They are the type of team that will slow it down to play at the pace they are comfortable with and not let Indiana dictate what they do. The Lakers have held the Pelicans to 89 points, the Suns to 103 and the Rockets to 97 in their last three games coming in, all three going well UNDER the total. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Indiana) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60-75) are 51-13 (79.7%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
12-08-23 | Kings -120 v. Suns | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
20* Kings/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -120 The Phoenix Suns will be without three starters in Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen tonight. Devin Booker is good, but he's not good enough to beat the Sacramento Kings on his own. The Kings should be much bigger favorites tonight given those injuries for the Suns. The Kings are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games. Sacramento is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games following a home loss. Phoenix is 1-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Friday. |
|||||||
12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder OVER 235.5 | Top | 136-138 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Thunder OVER 235.5 The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Warriors. They have combined for at least 237 points in all seven meetings. They have averaged 254.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is nearly 19 points more than this 235.5-point total. Enough said. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
12-08-23 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 240.5 | 97-124 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 240.5 The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 29th in defensive rating. They are scoring 117.2 points per game on 48.7% shooting and allowing 125.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting this season. Now they face a red hot Nets team that is scoring 123.0 points per game in winning six of their last seven games overall. The Wizards have scored at least 120 points in five of their last six games, and they have allowed 130 or more points in five of their last six as well. Washington is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Washington is 8-1 OVER following an ATS win this season. The Wizards are 8-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
12-08-23 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 241 | 114-125 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/76ers OVER 241 The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers are both dead nuts OVER teams. The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating. The 76ers rank 2nd in offensive rating and are scoring 120.6 points per game this season. The Hawks are scoring 122.6 points per game and allowing 122.3 points per game. The 76ers won 126-116 for 242 combined points in their first meeting with the Hawks this season. And neither team shot the lights out as the Hawks shot 44.9% and the 76ers 48.9%. So we have some room for improvement here on the shooting front in the rematch for both teams. Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 OVER with a total of 230 or higher this season. Philadelphia is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 Friday night home games. The 76ers are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games vs. terrible defensive teams allowing 48% shooting or higher. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
12-07-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 89-133 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
20* Pelicans/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 229.5 Teams are trying a lot harder on defense in these tournament games, especially these winner-take-all games. We saw that last time out with the Lakers as they beat the Suns 106-103 for just 209 combined points. I think we see it even more now that we are down to the semifinals. The semifinals will be playing on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, NV. These players aren't familiar with this court and the shooting sight lines will be different for them. It will take some time to adjust, and I think that will help us cash this UNDER ticket as well. The Lakers rank 9th in defensive rating and just 24th in offensive rating. They have been much better defensively since getting healthy, and the same can be said for the Pelicans. The Lakers have held their last two opponents to 103 and 97 points. They have allowed 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall. The Pelicans have allowed 114 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games overall. New Orleans is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 games with a total of 230 or higher. The Pelicans are 23-11 UNDER in their last 34 games when playing on two days' rest. New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 road games off two or more consecutive overs. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
12-06-23 | Nuggets v. Clippers | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK The Denver Nuggets are just kind of going through the motions right now after winning the NBA title last year. With that title comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to. The Nuggets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Los Angeles Clippers have gotten healthy and played up to their potential here in recent weeks with their loaded roster. They are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with wins over the Warriors, Kings and Mavericks in their last three victories. Now the Clippers have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season with the Nuggets. They only lost by 3 in Denver with a fully healthy Nuggets team. But they were upset as 10.5-point home favorites when they took the short-handed Nuggets lightly. They won't be taking them lightly tonight wanting revenge. Bet the Clippers Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-06-23 | Nets +4 v. Hawks | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets +4 The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are 10-9 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in their 19 games this season. They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with the two losses coming by a combined 3 points. One of those losses came 145-147 in Atlanta on November 22nd, so you can bet they will be out for revenge against the Hawks tonight. The Hawks won't have Jalen Johnson (14.1 PPG, 42.5% 3-pointers) this time around as he is out with injury. While the Nets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA, the Hawks are one of the most overrated. They have gone 9-10 SU & 5-14 ATS in their 19 games this season and play zero defense. The Hawks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have really struggled since losing Johnson with their last three losses all coming by double-digits and their lone win coming by 2 points over the lowly Spurs. Atlanta is 1-8 ATS after playing a road game this season. Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher this season. The Hawks are 1-8 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or better this season. Bet the Nets Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-06-23 | Magic v. Cavs -4 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -4 The Cleveland Cavaliers are finally healthy with the Big 4 of Mitchell, Garland, Allen and Mobley and a dangerous team when that's the case. They are laying too short of a number here at home against the Orlando Magic tonight. It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic. They just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 101-129 road loss at Brooklyn last time out. I always like fading teams the game after having a significant winning streak snapped because there always tends to be a hangover effect. They aren't as motivated any more because they don't have a winning streak to protect. But they are still getting a ton of respect due to winning nine of their last 10. Cleveland owns Orlando, going 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings with both home wins coming by double-digits. Cleveland is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Orlando with all four wins coming by 6 points or more and three by double-digits. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-05-23 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2 The Phoenix Suns want revenge from two narrow losses to the Lakers by a combined 8 points already this season. They lost 95-100 as 6.5-point road dogs on October 26th and 122-119 as 2-point home favorites on November 10th. There will get their revenge tonight with an outright victory. The difference is that the Suns did not have Devin Booker for either of those first two meetings due to injury. Booker means everything to this team averaging 27.9 points per game, 8.4 assists per game and 5.8 boards per game. When he and KD (31.0 PPG) have been on the court at the same time, this team has been dangerous. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS following an ATS win this season. They are actually getting outscored by 16.4 points per game in this spot this season. Bet the Suns Tuesday. |
|||||||
12-04-23 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 238 | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on OVER 238 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 16-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. The Boston Celtics are more of an OVER team this season. They rank 9th in offensive rating and are scoring 116.7 points per game on 47.3% shooting. They hung 155 points on the Pacers in their lone meeting with them this season in a 155-104 win that saw 259 combined points. I think this rematch will be a lot closer, but it will also sail OVER this 238-point total. Indiana games have seen at least 237 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season. Both Kristaps Porzingis and Tyrese Haliburton sat out their last game for their respective teams. I think that was caution more than anything, and both will likely play tonight. But it won't matter either way I like the OVER. The Pacers won 144-129 at Miami without Haliburton and the Celtics won 125-119 at home against the 76ers without Porzingis. Indiana is 13-0 OVER when revenging a loss this season. The Pacers are 20-2 OVER in their last 22 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game. Indiana is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
12-02-23 | Blazers +2 v. Jazz | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +2 The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson. It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries. Indeed, the Blazers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs and won outright at Cleveland 103-95 as 12-point dogs. The Blazers aren't just covering they are destroying these spreads. They have covered their last four games by a combined 62 points. Now they are somehow underdogs to the Utah Jazz, who are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. It's no wonder the Jazz are struggling going 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall. It's also no wonder their offense is broken as they have scored 105 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. They are coming off a 90-101 loss at Minnesota which followed up a 91-105 loss at Memphis. Utah is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Blazers Saturday. |
|||||||
12-02-23 | Pacers +3.5 v. Heat | 144-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5 The Indiana Pacers want revenge from their 132-142 loss at Miami on Thursday. They don't have to wait long to get their revenge as they play again here just two days later Saturday. The difference is the Heat will be missing their best defender and arguably their most important player in Bam Adebayo for the rematch. While the Pacers will be locked in wanting revenge, the Heat will relax a little not being overly excited to try and beat this team again. I think things will come even easier for the Pacers than they did in that first meeting without Adebayo. The Pacers rank 1st in offensive rating this season and 1st in adjusted tempo. Miami doesn't want to try to defend these guys again. Miami is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 41-11 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Pacers Saturday. |
|||||||
12-02-23 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 240 | Top | 144-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 240 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 15-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 127.9 points per game and allowing 125.8 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating. The Miami Heat combined for 255 points with Milwaukee and then 274 points with Indiana in their last two home games. We only need 240-plus combined points to cash this OVER in the rematch, which is 34 points less than what they just combined for on Thursday. We'll get 240-plus tonight, especially with Miami's best defender in Bam Adebayo out for the rematch. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
|||||||
12-02-23 | Cavs v. Pistons +9.5 | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5 The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately. Their 17-game losing streak dates back to October 30th. With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons. They will be desperate to end this skid tonight. The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York last time out as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road. Asking the Cavaliers to win this game by double-digits on the road to beat us is asking too much. The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost by 33 to Miami at home, lost by 6 to the Lakers at home, beat the Raptors by just 3 at home and lost outright to the Blazers by 8 as 12-point home favorites. They certainly aren't playing well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite on the road tonight. Detroit is as healthy as they have been all season with both Ausar Thompson and Bojan Bogdanovic upgraded to probable tonight. The time is now to 'buy low' on the Pistons. Bet the Pistons Saturday. |
|||||||
12-02-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -4.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 120-114 loss at Golden State on Thursday. Now they get the Warriors at home in the rematch so they don't have to wait long to get their revenge. The Clippers were at a big disadvantage in that game at Golden State because they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 131-117 road win at Sacramento the night before. They didn't have much left in the tank and were still competitive. Now, after having Friday off, I expect a much better effort from them in the rematch. The Warriors won't be nearly as motivated to beat this team again. Plus, the Warriors are missing two key players in Chris Paul and Gary Payton II, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable. Meanwhile, the Clippers are fully healthy for this one and primed for a big effort. The Warriors are 20-36 ATS in their last 56 road games. Golden State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after going over the total in two consecutive games. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Enough said. Bet the Clippers Saturday. |
|||||||
12-01-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 232.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 232.5 The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and are humming on offense right now. They have scored at least 115 points in eight of their last 10 games overall. They rank 9th in pace this season and like to get up and down. Now they face another team that likes to get up and down in the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. They are a dead nuts OVER team as a result. They just combined for 292 points with the Hawks last night in a 147-145 loss. Now they will be on tired legs and won't be playing much defense tonight. The OVER is 13-5 in Spurs' 18 games this season. The OVER is 15-4 in Spurs last 19 games vs. division opponents. San Antonio is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. a marginal winning team (51-60%). Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
12-01-23 | Wizards +11.5 v. Magic | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5 The Orlando Magic have been the most profitable team to back in the NBA this season at 13-5 SU & 15-3 ATS. But with that fast start comes lofty expectations that are going to be tough to live up to in the immediate future. It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic tonight. If the Magic were going to have a letdown, it would be tonight. That's because they just beat this same Washington Wizards team 139-120 as 9.5-point home favorites on Wednesday. How motivated are they going to be to beat this same team again? The answer is not very. The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge. The Magic aren't going to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting. They shot 60.7% from the floor and an unsustainable 17-of-27 (63%) from 3-point range. The Wizards have been more competitive on the road than they have been at home this season. In their six road games prior to losing to the Magic, they went 5-1 ATS upsetting Detroit by 19 as 3-point road dogs, only losing by 3 at Milwaukee as 14-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Charlotte as 4-point dogs, only losing by 4 at Toronto as 8-point dogs, only losing by 8 at Brooklyn as 7-point dogs and upsetting Charlotte by 16 as 2.5-point dogs. So the 19-point loss at Orlando was the aberration, and it was only due to the Magic shooting an unsustainable percentage. Plays on any team (Washington) - off a blowout loss by 15 points or more against an opponent that is off two straight games where both teams scored 115 or more are 55-18 (75.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Wizards Friday. |
|||||||
11-30-23 | Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 222 | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222 This matchup between Utah and Minnesota tonight will be played without the best offensive player for both teams. Utah leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (23.7 PPG) and Minnesota leading scorer Anthony Edwards (26.2 PPG) are both expected to miss this game. Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is even when Edwards was healthy. They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating and play at a slower tempo. They rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating even with Edwards. Having the twin towers of Gobert and Towns plus a defensive-minded PG in Mike Conley Jr. make them a dead nuts UNDER team. The Timberwolves have remarkably held four of their last five opponents to 103 points or fewer, which is a great feat in today's NBA. Now they face a Jazz team that has really been struggling offensively without Markkanen, scoring 105 points or fewer in four of their last five games. The Jazz are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall. Minnesota beat Utah 123-95 for just 218 combined points in their first meeting this season back on November 4th. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
11-30-23 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 237.5 | Top | 132-142 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Heat OVER 237.5 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 127.6 points per game and allowing 124.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating. The Miami Heat just played another dead nuts over team in the Milwaukee Bucks last time out and the result was a 131-124 shootout loss and 255 combined points. It will be more of the same against the Indiana Pacers tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
|||||||
11-30-23 | Blazers +12 v. Cavs | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +12 The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson. It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries. Indeed, the Blazers have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, and won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs. Now they are once again catching too many points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Cavaliers are coming off a 23-point win over the Hawks which has them overvalued. They lost by 33 at home to Miami, were upset by 6 at home by the Lakers and only beat the Raptors by 3 at home in their previous three games. It's not like they are playing well enough right now to warrant being 12-point favorites here. Bet the Blazers Thursday. |
|||||||
11-29-23 | Clippers -125 v. Kings | Top | 131-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -125 I had the Kings on the Money Line last night and was fortunate to cash that ticket. The Kings came back from 24 points down to the Warriors to win 124-123. They put everything they had into that comeback, and now they won't have anything left in the tank for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. It is also a letdown spot for the Kings after finally beating their hated rivals in the Warriors after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them in seven games last season, and losing the first two meetings this season to the Warriors. They wanted that win more than anything, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Clippers tonight. The Clippers will be extra motivated to bounce back from a bad loss to the Nuggets who didn't have Nikola Jokic. They simply thought they could show up and win that game. The Clippers had been playing well previously going 4-1 SU in their previous five games. They will be focused for this one, and they are healthy for pretty much the first time this season right now and a dangerous team when that's the case. Plays against home underdogs (Sacramento) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites on the money line (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss a a home favorite against an opponent that is off a home win where they scored 110 points or more are 61-20 (75.3%, +31.4 Units) since 1996. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday. |
|||||||
11-29-23 | Suns -2.5 v. Raptors | 105-112 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -2.5 The Phoenix Suns are rolling right now going 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more. Devin Booker is playing at an MVP level, and there's a good chance they get Kevin Durant back from injury tonight. The Suns come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher team, which is the biggest reason for this play. The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 103-115 loss in Brooklyn last night. The Raptors will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days in their 5th different city. They will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns tonight. Bet the Suns Wednesday. |
|||||||
11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -119 | Top | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -119 This is the ultimate revenge spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Warriors in seven games last season. They are already 0-2 against the Warriors this season, though their 1-point loss at Golden State on November 1st came without De'Aaron Fox. It's safe to say the Kings are going to be max motivated for revenge at home tonight, and I expect them to get the job done. The Warriors are 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They do get Draymond Green back, but I don't think it's going to matter. The Kings will simply want this one more. The Warriors are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 road games dating back to last season. Golden State is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Tuesday. |
|||||||
11-28-23 | Rockets +4.5 v. Mavs | 115-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5 The Houston Rockets are the most undervalued team in the NBA right now. They have gone 8-3 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Their only three losses came on the road by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They have beaten the Nuggets twice, the Lakers and the Kings twice during this run. The Rockets play team basketball without the superstar names. That's what makes them such an undervalued commodity. The Mavericks have the big names in Doncic and Irving, but not much help outside of them. And Doncic has a banged up thumb right now that he is expected to play through tonight. The Mavericks are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming over the lowly Wizards and the Lakers by 3 who were tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They lost by 21 at the Pelicans, by 7 at the Bucks, by 16 at home against the Kings and by 19 at the Clippers. They aren't playing well at all right now and don't warrant being 4.5-point favorites here. Dallas is 24-40 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite. Bet the Rockets Tuesday. |
|||||||
11-28-23 | Thunder +3.5 v. Wolves | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge from a 120-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in round of the playoffs last year that ended their season. This is their first shot at revenge this season, and I expect them to make the most of it tonight. The Thunder are fully healthy right now and are a dangerous team when that's the case. They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are one of the best teams in the NBA this season. Five of their six wins came by double-digits while the other was a 7-point win at Golden State. The spot really favors the Thunder not only because of the revenge factor, but also because they are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in all games this season and have been covering machines over the last three seasons. Oklahoma City is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better. Bet the Thunder Tuesday. |
|||||||
11-28-23 | Bulls +14 v. Celtics | Top | 97-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +14 The Boston Celtics are getting too much respect from the books tonight as massive 14-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls. That's especially the case considering the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight with starting PG Jrue Holiday questionable as well. The Bulls are undervalued right now after a 5-13 SU & 5-12-1 ATS start this season and this is a good 'buy low' spot on them. They always seem to play the Celtics tough, and there's no doubt they will be up for this game tonight. Indeed, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright wins as underdogs. Three of their four losses straight up have come by 8 points or less. They will stay within this inflated number again and keep their series dominance going in this head-to-head matchup. Bet the Bulls Tuesday. |
|||||||
11-27-23 | Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 231 | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Jazz UNDER 231 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The Pelicans and Jazz will be meeting in Utah for the 2nd time in 3 days. The Jazz won 105-100 for just 205 combined points in that first meeting with a total set of 227. Now the total is set at 231 and the books are making a mistake not listing this total much lower tonight. While the Pelicans are without CJ McCollum, the Jazz could be without both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen again tonight after they both sat out their last game. Those are their two best offensive weapons, and even if they are without one it will hamper them a lot offensively. New Orleans is 46-25 UNDER in its last 71 games vs. teams with a losing record, including 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51-60%) playing a losing team are 41-14 (74.5%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
11-27-23 | Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 231.5 | 94-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5 The Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers are two of the rare teams in the NBA today that still prefer to run offense through their centers in Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. As a result, they both play at slower tempos than average and I think this is a great UNDER bet in a game involving two of the best centers in the game. These are also two of the better defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers ranking 9th and the 76ers 13th in defensive rating. The Lakers are just 24th in offensive rating and dealing with a bunch of injuries. LeBron James is questionable, Gabe Vincent is out, Cam Reddish is questionable and Rui Hachimura is out. Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - off a road win, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 75-35 (68.2%) since 1996. The Lakers and 76ers have combined for 227 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
11-27-23 | Blazers v. Pacers OVER 241 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pacers OVER 241 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-1 OVER in their 15 games this season. They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.5 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating. The Blazers are not an over team, but the Pacers force teams to play at their pace, especially at home. Plus the Blazers just got both Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson back from injury and were missing those two key guards for a big chunk of this season. They now have the guards to get up and down with the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
|||||||
11-26-23 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5 | 119-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5 Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies rank in the bottom half of the league in pace. The Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. The Grizzlies always get after it defensively, but with all their injuries right now points have been very hard to come by for them. The Grizzlies were held to 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last two games. I think the Timberwolves will hold them below 100 today, which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 218.5 ticket. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last five meetings with 220 or fewer combined points in five of those six, and 217 or fewer in three of the last four. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
11-26-23 | Wolves -6.5 v. Grizzlies | 119-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 The Memphis Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. With all the injuries the Grizzlies are dealing with right now, points have been very hard to come by for them. The Grizzlies were held to 100 points by the Celtics, 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last three games to fall to 3-12 SU & 5-10 ATS this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-4 SU & 8-5-2 ATS this season and have been one of the more undervalued teams in the NBA. But they are coming off a bad home loss to the Kings, which will have them refocused and not taking the Grizzlies lightly today. Memphis is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as an underdog. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday. |
|||||||
11-26-23 | Blazers +13 v. Bucks | Top | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +13 Giannis, Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard combined for 101 points last game and the Bucks still were life and death with one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards in a 131-128 win as 13.5-point home favorites. They lost Kris Middleton to an Achilles injury in that game and he won't play today. They will be life and death with the Blazers again today because they just don't have much help outside of those Big 3. The Blazers are coming off a 121-105 upset win over the Jazz as 3-point home underdogs. They are getting healthier and playing better. Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off. I expect the Blazers to give a big effort today in this sleepy afternoon game for the Bucks, who won't have their usual home-court advantage due to this early start time. Plays against favorites (Milwaukee) - after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Blazers Sunday. |
|||||||
11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets -3.5 I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses. They are also motivated because one of those losses came 122-115 at Miami on November 14th. The Nets also have a big rest advantage over the Heat tonight. The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days. Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss at New York last night. This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for the Heat, which is about as tough as it gets in the NBA. Eight of those nine games were on the road so there has been a ton of travel involved. Jimmy Butler played 36 minutes, Bam Adebaoy 34, Josh Richardson 34 and Kyle Lowry 33 last night. The Heat are already short-handed without Tyler Herro and likely without Duncan Robinson again tonight. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit Butler and/or Adebayo tonight given the tough rest spot. Brooklyn is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when revenging a road loss. Miami is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Nets Saturday. |
|||||||
11-24-23 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 234.5 | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5 The Golden State Warriors are an OVER team when Draymond Green is out of the lineup. They miss his defense. They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall without Green and tonight will be the 5th game of his 5-game suspension. They have gone for 237, 253, 237 and 238 combined points in their last four games. The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy. They are at least respectable on offense, but they are terrible on defense either way. The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. The last two meetings between the Spurs and Warriors have gone OVER the total with 245 and 257 combined points. Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Golden State) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
11-24-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +3 | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +3 The Houston Rockets are the most underrated team in the NBA right now. They are 7-3 SU & a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The three losses all went to the wire and were all on the road losing by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games. The Rockets are back home where they just crushed Memphis by 20. They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets just aren't the same without Jamal Murray and have struggled without him in recent seasons. The Nuggets are 3-4 SU but 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall without Murray with the three wins all coming by 4 points or fewer. Denver is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Houston is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. I fully expect Houston to win this game outright. Bet the Rockets Friday. |
|||||||
11-24-23 | Pistons v. Pacers OVER 247.5 | Top | 113-136 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 247.5 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 13-1 OVER in their 14 games this season. They are scoring 128.3 points per game and allowing 126.4 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. The Pistons don't mind getting up and down either as they rank 11th in pace. They play little defense ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. This one has the makings of a shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
11-24-23 | Heat v. Knicks -5.5 | 98-100 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -5.5 I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight. They are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off following a road loss at Minnesota which was their 5th consecutive road game. They needed the rest, and they will far back here on Black Friday with a blowout win over the Miami Heat. The Heat are getting a lot of respect now after winning nine of their last 10 against a very soft schedule. They are coming off a blowout win at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the 76ers in OT on the road the night before. The Heat have two key starters questionable to play tonight in Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson and may be short-handed. They already lack depth as it is without Tyler Herro. Meanwhile, the Knicks are fully healthy. New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or less last game. Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more. Bet the Knicks Friday. |
|||||||
11-24-23 | Suns -7.5 v. Grizzlies | 110-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -7.5 The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now with all their injuries. They are 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS this season. They are without Morant, Smart, Tillman, Kennard, Adams, Clarke, LaRavia and could be without Bane tonight. The Phoenix Suns are getting healthier and forming some chemistry right now. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, and I expect them to handle the short-handed Grizzlies tonight. Memphis is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog. Bet the Suns Friday. |
|||||||
11-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5 | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -4.5 The Houston Rockets are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now. They are 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 6, the Lakers by 1 and the Warriors by 5. Now the Rockets are back home where they are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. They host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS this season. The Grizzlies have the worst injury situation in the entire NBA which is the biggest reason for their struggles. Memphis is 1-18 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Bet the Rockets Wednesday. |
|||||||
11-22-23 | Raptors v. Pacers OVER 237.5 | Top | 132-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers OVER 237.5 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 12-1 OVER in their 13 games this season scoring 128.1 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enough. The Toronto Raptors are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 240 points with Milwaukee, 255 points with Detroit and 233 points with Orlando. They will be forced to play up-tempo with the Pacers controlling the pace playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
11-22-23 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 235 | Top | 116-119 | Push | 0 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235 Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive rating while the Celtics rank 6th. The Bucks also rank 6th in pace but are a poor defensive team ranking 23rd in that category. Shootouts have been the norm between the Bucks and Celtics in recent meetings and both are even more OVER teams this season. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239, 256 and 257 combined points in those three meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
|||||||
11-21-23 | Jazz +8 v. Lakers | 99-131 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
15* Jazz/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +8 The Utah Jazz are playing well going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their two losses came to the Suns by 3 points apiece with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both healthy. Now they will give LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are run for their money tonight. The Lakers are getting too much respect now after winning five of their last six games coming in. But three of the five were decided by 6 points or less, and it has mostly come against a very soft schedule. They lost by 15 at home to the Kings for their lone loss. Their only wins by margin came against arguably the two worst teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Blazers, and they also only beat the Blazers by 6. They beat the Rockets by 1 last time out. The Jazz should be the fresher team here too playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. The Jazz are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs. Utah is 32-13 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a winning record. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51-60% of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Jazz Tuesday. |
|||||||
11-21-23 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 250 | Top | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 250 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-1 OVER in their 12 games this season scoring 125.7 points per game and allowing 123.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enought. Now the Pacers play another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. The OVER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall. The OVER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between the Pacers and Hawks. They combined for 273 points in their most recent meeting and had no problem topping the 249.5-point total. They won't have a problem topping this 250-point total, either. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
|||||||
11-20-23 | Heat -120 v. Bulls | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat ML -120 The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 102-97 loss at Chicago on Saturday just two days ago. They led 22-1 in the first quarter and couldn't hang on as they got complacent and the Bulls got hot. They won't make the same mistake again here in the rematch. The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall while the Bulls are 1-3 SU in their last four games. Plays on road favorites (Miami) - revenging a same-season loss while also off an upset loss as a favorite are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. I love the spot for Miami tonight. Bet the Heat on the Money Line Monday. |
|||||||
11-20-23 | Bucks -9 v. Wizards | 142-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9 The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential. The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites. They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road. Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are 2-10 this season. The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season. They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating. The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits. Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite. The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season. It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss. Bet the Bucks Monday. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 220.5 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5 The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 29th in the NBA in pace and 4th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers rank 16th in pace and 22nd in offensive efficiency. This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight with some poor offense on both sides. Five of Houston's last six games have seen 219 or fewer combined points. The lone exception was their 128-94 win over the Lakers that saw 222 combined points. But familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I expect this rematch to be more low-scoring, and we only need it to be 2 points less to cash this UNDER 220.5 ticket. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Kings v. Mavs OVER 244.5 | 129-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Mavericks OVER 244.5 The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season, scoring 123.5 points per game and allowing 119.7 points per game. They rank 4th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency. Now they play a Sacramento Kings team that is a dead nuts OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy. They have gone for 252, 235 and 249 combined points in their last three games since Fox returned from injury. They have scored 132, 125 and 129 points in those three games and will hang another big number on the Mavericks tonight. Dallas is 8-0 OVER when the total is 230 or higher this season. The Mavericks are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 games after playing three consecutive road games. They just combined for 257 points with the Bucks last night and have combined for at least 241 points with their opponents in six consecutive games now while going OVER in all six. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Kings -120 v. Mavs | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings ML -120 The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting D'Aaron Fox back from injury. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since he returned. Now they are in a great spot tonight with yesterday off and playing a Mavericks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. The Mavericks put everything into their 125-132 road loss at Milwaukee last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. The Mavericks are a terrible defensive team ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season. They won't be giving much effort on that end considering how tired they are. Sacramento is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. Sacramento is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 116-plus points per game. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Sunday. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4 | Top | 128-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4 The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS. They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency. Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers. This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off. Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury. The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be. Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer. The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games. The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic. Bet the Pacers Sunday. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers OVER 234 | Top | 128-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pacers OVER 234 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 10-1 OVER this season. They score 126.5 points per game and allow 123.4 points per game this season. They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency. Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
|||||||
11-18-23 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | 97-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5 The Miami Heat are rolling right now with seven consecutive victories. They play a struggling Chicago Bulls team that is in the midst of a ton of trade rumors right now. The Bulls have lost three consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to Orlando at home. The spot really favors the Heat tonight. They had yesterday off while the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 97-103 loss to the Magic last night. This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Bulls, which is one of the toughest spots a team can be in in the NBA. Bet the Heat Saturday. |
|||||||
11-18-23 | Knicks -6.5 v. Hornets | 122-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6.5 The New York Knicks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last two seasons. That has been the case again this season as they are 7-5 SU & 7-3-2 ATS in their 12 games. They have a great bench and guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle just don't get the respect they deserve. The Charlotte Hornets are a dumpster fire again this season and battling injuries. No starter other than La'Melo Ball scored more than 11 points last night in a 130-99 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Now I expect them to get blown out by the Knicks, who are coming off a 120-99 road win at Washington last night. The Knicks just beat the Hornets 129-107 as 10.5-point home favorites on Sunday. They will cover this short 6.5-point spread in the rematch as well with the Hornets showing nothing worth betting on of late. The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite. The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game. Bet the Knicks Saturday. |
|||||||
11-17-23 | Lakers v. Blazers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Blazers UNDER 223.5 The Portland Trail Blazers are without their top three guards in Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon. They are a dead nuts UNDER team as a result, and they were even with these guys healthy with the way they are playing. The Blazers rank 24th in the NBA in pace, dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency. They are putting in the effort defensively to try and stay competitive, but they just don't get anything easy on the offensive end. They have been held to 95 points by the Cavaliers and 99 points by the Jazz in their last two games coming in. The Lakers rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace and are 21st in offensive efficiency. They should bring a big defensive effort after getting beat by the Kings last time out. I think this game will be played at a snail's pace, the defense will be there, and both teams will struggle to score. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. These teams just played less than a week ago on November 12th with the Lakers beating the Blazers 116-110 for 226 combined points and a total of 219.5. The Blazers shot 50% and the Lakers shot 48.8%, and both are unsustainable in the rematch. Now the total has been raised up to 223.5 for the rematch, so there's value with the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
|||||||
11-17-23 | Kings -8.5 v. Spurs | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -8.5 The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury as he means everything to this team. In the two games back they crushed Cleveland 132-120 as 1-point home underdogs and upset the Lakers 125-110 as 1-point road dogs. Now they take on the hapless San Antonio Spurs tonight, and another double-digit blowout in their favor is going to be the result. The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 22.0 points per game. Injuries have set them back as they are without both Devin Vassell and Tre Jones. Plus, they just don't play any defense and simply don't have much talent aside from Wembenyana. The Kings are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs with their last three wins all coming by double-digits. San Antonio is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following four or more consecutive ATS losses. Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. Bet the Kings Friday. |
|||||||
11-16-23 | Thunder -2.5 v. Warriors | Top | 128-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 The Golden State Warriors are going to be without their two most important players tonight. Stephen Curry (30.7 PPG) is what keeps the Warriors a contender in the West. Well, they are going to be without him tonight. They will also be without Draymond Green, who is their best defender and important in screen and rolls with Curry and as a passer. They are one of the worst teams in the NBA without these two. I think the Warriors are getting too much respect here because they were able to hang with the Timberwolves in a 3-point loss without these two in their last game. That was clearly a letdown spot for the Timberwolves after beating the Warriors two days earlier, and knowing they didn't have to face Curry in the rematch. Then Green and Thompson got tossed right away and Minnesota simply took their foot off the gas. The Oklahoma City Thunder won't make the same mistake tonight. They are in a great spot here as they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They also want revenge from a 141-139 home loss to the Warriors as 6-point dogs on November 3rd just two weeks ago. Well, they didn't have their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that game, while the Warriors were fully healthy and they still only lost by 2 on a buzzer-beater by the Warriors. This game will also be on National TV so we'll get a fully-focused effort from the Thunder. Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Thunder Thursday. |
|||||||
11-15-23 | Kings +108 v. Lakers | 125-110 | Win | 108 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Kings/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML +108 The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury last time out. He put his stamp on the game right away with 28 points in a 132-120 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday. Now the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for a big effort against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night. The Lakers will also be playing their 7th game in 12 days and this is a big step up in class for them after beating the Grizzlies and Blazers at home in their last two games. The Kings simply own the Lakers going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings including outright wins in their last two trips to Los Angeles. It will be more of the same tonight given the rest advantage for Sacramento in a game I expect them to win outright. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday. |