Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | 87-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Mavericks/Trail Blazers TNT Late Night Bailout on Trail Blazers - The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Portland has one of the best homecourt advantages in the league and will be coming into this game extremely confident off that 19-point blowout win at home over the Cavaliers on Tuesday. Portland lost just 10 games all of last season at home, making them a must play here as a mere 2-point favorite. Dallas has got off to an impressive start offensively, as they connected on 52.4% of their attempts through their first 4 games. Sustaining that offense won't be easy on the road, especially against a quality defensive team like Portland. The Trail Blazers are holding opponents to just 40.6% shooting through their first 4 games and come in ranked 6th in defensive efficiency. It's also worth noting that the Mavericks are giving up 102.5 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field on the road. The Trail Blazers have one of the more explosive offenses in the league and should only get better now that Damian Lillard looks to be back to 100% after struggling in his first 3 games battling an abdominal strain. Take Portland! |
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11-05-14 | Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 109-131 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Nuggets + Denver is showing great value here as an underdog against the Kings. The Nuggets are in a huge revenge spot, as this is a rematch of Monday's game in Denver. The Kings won that game 110-105. When two teams face off in back-to-back games, the loser of the first matchup is clearly going to be the more motivated squad in the second meeting. Sitting at 3-1 with wins over the Trail Blazers and Clippers prior to their win against the Nuggets, this is a big letdown spot for Sacramento, especially when you factor in that it's their 3rd game in 4 days. The Kings are just 7-19 ATS over the last 3 seasons in home games off 1 or more consecutive wins and only 10-21 in their last 31 home games against a team with a losing record. Adding to this is that Denver is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss. There's also a key system in play telling us to fade the Kings. Home favorites off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against an opponent off a game where both teams scored 105 or more points are just 25-58 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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11-04-14 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. New York Knicks | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Wizards + The Knicks come into this game off back-to-back impressive wins. They went on the road and beat Cleveland 95-90 and were able to hold on for a 96-93 win at home against Charlotte. Yet they are just a 1.5-point home favorite. The books have made it pretty clear that they don't trust this team, and neither do I right now. New York lacks depth and talent and are still playing without starting point guard Jose Calderon and key reserve Andrea Bargnani. Washington is hands down the better team and I look for them to have their way with the Knicks, similar to what we saw in New York's opening loss to Chicago, where they trailed by 30 points. It's also worth noting that the Knicks have barely won each of their last two games, while shooting over 50% from the field. That's not a good sign of things to come, as they rely on too many jump shots to continue to hit at that high of a rate. Washington is 30-18 ATS in their last 48 games when listed as an underdog and 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less points. There's a strong system in play suggesting just that. Home teams who have made 50% or more of their attempts in 2 straight games that are shooting 45.5% - 47.5% on the season against an opponent that is allowing opponents to shoot 45.5% - 47.5% are just 57-100 ATS since 1996. That's a 64% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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11-03-14 | Boston Celtics +9.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Celtics/Mavericks NBA Main Event on Celtics + The Celtics are showing great value here getting 9.5 points against the Mavericks. While Boston lost 90-104 at Houston in their last contest, they had an awful night shooting. The Celtics were just 37.8% from the field and a mere 1-25 (4.0%) from behind the 3-point line. To only lose by 14-points with that kind of shooting is a good sign that this team is capable of keeping it within single digits against the Mavericks. Dallas has allowed each of their first 3 opponents to eclipse the 100-point mark. A big reason the Celtics were able to keep it somewhat close against the Rockets is their defense. Boston held Houston to just 42.1% shooting. Brad Stevens has this team playing hard and we saw what they were capable of in their 121-105 win at home over the Nets in the opener. I think this Celtics team is flying under the radar and is going to be a profitable team to back early on in this spot. Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Boston! |
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11-02-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. New York Knicks -3.5 | 93-96 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Knicks - The Knicks are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Bobcats, who find themselves playing on the road in a 2nd game of back-to-back set. Charlotte has not looked great in their first two games. They were fortunate to get a win at home against the Bucks in the opener and managed just 69 points in a loss last night to the Grizzlies. The Knicks got a huge win at Cleveland last Thursday and are going to come out extremely motivated after getting embarrassed by the Bulls in their home opener. Charlotte is just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 games when playing on no rest, while the Knicks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after an upset win as a road underdog and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after shooting 50% on 3-point shots in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 74% (49-17) system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York! |
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11-01-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz +2 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Suns/Jazz NBA Western Conference Heavy Hitter on Jazz + Utah is showing some nice value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Jazz are going to come out motivated after their 0-2 start, which has seen them lose to a couple of playoff teams from last year in Houston and Dallas.They were especially bad in their last game against Dallas, falling behind by as many as 30 points. When a team has that bad of a showing they almost always bounce back. I definitely like Utah to respond at home and get the win. The Suns on the other hand are in a bit of a letdown spot. Phoenix has a quick turnaround after last night's big home win against the Spurs. The Suns really wanted that game last night versus San Antonio and I can't see them matching that intensity against Utah. The Jazz are 101-71 ATS in their last 172 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take Utah! |
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10-31-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings +6 | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Kings + The Kings are showing great value as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento ended up losing 77-95 to Golden State at home in the opener, but that was a more competitive game than the final score would indicate. The Kings actually had a lead late in the 3rd quarter. They simply committed too many turnovers and couldn't buy a basket. As a team they show just 30.8% from the field. Sacramento hasn't lost back-to-back home openers since 1997. The Trail Blazers enter off a 106-89 home win over the Thunder. It looks like they dominated on paper, but they actually trailed Oklahoma City going into the 4th quarter and the Thunder are as unhealthy as any team in the league. Portland was better on the road last year than previous seasons, but this team is not the same away from home. It's going to be hard for them to win here going away, which is why I really like the value we are getting with the Kings, who wouldn't surprise me if they won outright. Sacramento finished last year 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit home loss. Portland on the the other hand was just 2-6 ATS off a SU win by more than 10 points. There's also a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Trail Blazers. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 18-49 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento! |
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10-30-14 | Detroit Pistons +4.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 91-97 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pistons + I love the value we are getting with Detroit as a 4.5-point dog against the Timberwolves. The Pistons should have covered last night in Denver, but managed just 16 points in the 4th quarter to lose by 10 as a 6.5-point dog. I don't see the offense struggling like that against the Timberwolves, who allowed 105 points to the Grizzlies last night. They let Memphis score at will inside as Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol combined for 57 points on 24 of 33 shooting. Another big thing here is that I think the Pistons are a team that's going to be greatly improved in 2014-15 under Van Gundy, while the Timberwolves simply can't be as good as last year after losing a player of the caliber of Love. There's just not enough weapons offensively right now, especially with Kevin Martin sidelined with an ankle injury. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Pistons to win this one outright. While both teams are playing in the second game of back-to-back set, the Timberwolves really struggled in this spot last year. They were just 3-15 ATS over their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. It's also worth noting that Van Gundy has a history of getting his teams to respond off a double-digit loss. His teams are 60-36 ATS over their last 99 off a double-digit loss. These two trends combine to form a nice 66% (75-39) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit! |
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10-29-14 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz +3.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz + I was wrong on the Lakers being able to keep up with the Rockets last night, but I'm not taking the bait on Houston as a mere -3.5 point road favorite against the Jazz. Utah can be a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially early in the year when the home fans have new hope. The Jazz have a ton of young and talented players who are going to be extremely motivated to start their season against a playoff team from last year. While the Rockets looked impressive on the road last night, they went just 21-20 on the road last year, compared to 33-8 at home. Unlike the Lakers, who had no answer inside for Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones, Utah has a more than capable frontcourt to slow them down in Derrick Favors and Enes Kantor. What this play really comes down to is a big time system that has seen home teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent who is playing their second game of the season go 38-21-3 ATS. That's a 64% system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah! |
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10-28-14 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers +6.5 | 108-90 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA Opening Night No Doubt ATS Rout on Lakers + The Lakers are showing great value as a 6.5-point home dog against the Rockets. This is not the same Los Angeles team that won just 27 games last year. They might not have what it takes to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference, but they should be highly competitive, especially at home. Kobe Bryant has something to prove this year and all this team has heard is how they aren't going to be any good. This should have them coming out of the gate playing with a lot of energy and passion against a top team from last season. I think a lot of people are underestimating the additions the Lakers made in the offseason. Not only do they get back Kobe, but they brought in Jeremy Lin to help at the point, drafted Julius Randle and signed underrated free agent power forward Carlos Boozer. Having Lin help this team understand the Rockets schemes should also help in this one. New head coach Bryan Scott has worked this team hard in the offseason and is making defense a priority, which I think could catch some teams off guard after last year when the Lakers finished 29th in the league in scoring defense (109.2 ppg). Houston on the other hand was unable to improve their roster in the offseason. Most notably they weren't able to bring back Chandler Parsons, who I believe was the one player outside of Harden and Howard that they couldn't afford to lose. Parsons did it all for the Rockets, averaging 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.19 steals, on 47.2% shooting from the field and 37.0% from behind the arc. I look for Los Angeles to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning outright. Take the Lakers! |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 87-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NBA Finals Game 5 Vegas Insider on Heat + *Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly* |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5 | 107-86 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
4* Spurs/Heat Game 4 NBA Finals No Brainer on Miami - The Heat didn't decide to show up to Game 3 on the defensive side of the ball until it was too late. Miami allowed San Antonio to score 41 in the 1st quarter and 71 in the first half. They would end up holding the Spurs to just 40 points in the 2nd half, but just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish off the comeback. That performance is not going to sit well with James and company and I look for Miami to come out and play like this is Game 7. Defensively I look for the Heat to play their best game of the series and offensively I believe this will be the game where Mario Chalmers wakes up and finally contributes meaningful minutes. Not to mention, James is going to be playing like a man possessed on both ends of the floor. Even with their win in Game 3, San Antonio is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. That was the first home game the Heat have lost in the playoffs and Miami has done an amazing job of responding in this situation. Miami is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-1 (88%) ATS in their last 8 following a double-digit loss at home.Take the Heat! |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -4.5 | 111-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
4* NBA Finals Game 3 Vegas Insider on Heat - The Heat took control of the series with a win in Game 2 and will be extremely motivated to maintain that edge with a win at home tonight. Had LeBron James not had to sit out the majority of the 4th quarter with cramps in Game 1, Miami could very well have a 2-0 advantage in this series. Just as I expected, James came out and delivered a huge performance in Game 2. The Spurs have really struggled to keep James in check and defensively the Heat are giving San Antonio all kinds of trouble. In Game 1 Miami forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers and in Game 2 they limited the Spurs to just 44% shooting. I look for the Heat to be even stronger defensively in front of their home crowd and at the same time the role players for Miami should play better at home. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Heat won this one rather convincingly. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and just 2-7 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 80% (20-5) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Heat + The Heat were in prime position to win and cover in Game 1 before James had to exit due to cramping. The goods is that injury should be long gone by the time these two teams tip-off tonight. I look for James to come out and make a statement and for the Heat to even up the series at 1-1. Miami ended up allowing the Spurs to score 110 points, but their defense really fell apart without James on the floor. One of the key things to notice is that the Heat forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers, which ended up in a lot of easy baskets in transition. I expect more of the same in Game, as Miami is going to do everything they can to even up the series at 1-1. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points and 23-9 in their last 34 games after a loss by 10+ points. That's a 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on. If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199. The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER! |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206.5 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over. San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season. The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5! |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points. Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76. Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Spurs - As bad as the Spurs have looked in the last two games at Oklahoma City, I look for them to respond with a big time performance at home in Game 5. San Antonio is going to treat this as if it were a Game 7, as they don't want to go to Oklahoma City for Game 6 down 3-2. The Spurs offense played about as poorly as they could in Games 3 and 4, shooting under 40% in both contests. I'm confident they aren't going to shoot better at home. Another key thing to factor in is that Oklahoma City invested a lot of energy to win the last two games and there's a good chance they won't be able to match the Spurs intensity tonight. San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games and 25-11-1 in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. There's also a strong system in play. Explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 154-84 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of San Antonio. Take the Spurs! |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +2.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers + Indiana's chances of winning the series doesn't look good, but I don't expect the Pacers to let their season come to an end at home. I fully expect Indiana to come out and play like they did in their 107-96 home win in Game 1. While the Pacers will be laying everything on the line to stay alive, Miami could find it difficult to match their intensity from the previous three games with a comfortable lead. The Heat could also be without two key role players, as both Ray Allen and Chris Anderson are both listed as questionable for Game 5. The Pacers are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 games off a road loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and 4-1 in their last 5 after a SU defeat by more than 10 points. There's a strong system in play, home teams where the line is +3 to -3, who are playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent - against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers! |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder - The Thunder got new life in the series with a 106-97 win at home in Game 3 and a big reason for that was return of Serge Ibaka. Not only did Ibaka's return provide an emotional lift for the rest of the team, he had a huge impact on the game with 15 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks. The Spurs no longer got easy looks in the paint and as a result their offense was completely out of whack. San Antonio shot just 39.6% from the field. With Ibaka feeling fine and expected to play in Game 4, I think the Thunder are showing unbelievable value as a small home favorite. Keep in mind that Oklahoma City won all four regular season matchups with Ibaka on the floor. San Antonio is just 2-7 in their last 9 games after a contest where they failed to cover the spread and are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games in the playoffs. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 15-3 in their last 18 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 32-18 in their last 50 home games with a total set between 200 and 209.5 points. That's a 64% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Pacers + The Pacers got out to a 15-point lead early in Game 3, but weren't able to finish the job, as Miami rallied and ended up winning by a final of 99-87. Indiana is more than capable of winning on the road and evening up the series at 2-2 and I expect a much more complete effort in a crucial Game 4. Regardless if the Pacers win this game, they should have no problem keeping it within 6-points to cover the spread. If it wasn't for Ray Allen's 4 3-pointers in the 4th quarter of Game 3, Indiana would have easily covered the number. I really like the balance that the Pacers have displayed offensively. Four different players scored in double-figures and four more had at least 6-points. Miami relies heavily on James and Wade, who combined for 49 points. No other Heat starter reached double figures. I look for the Indiana defense to turn it up a notch and really make things difficult on the Heat in Game 4. Indiana is 31-17 ATS in their last 48 games off a road loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss of more than 10 points. That's a 69% (42-19) system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana! |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder - It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder. The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most. Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs. The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | 87-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Pacers + I believe the books have overvalued the Heat big time at home in Game 3. Indiana poses a very difficult matchup for Miami and have to feel like they should be up 2-0. I just don't see enough separation between these two teams to expect the Heat to win here by 8+ points. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if Indiana won this game straight up. Either way, I like them to cover the spread. The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games revenging a loss at home, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread last time out. Miami on the other hand is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after playing a game as a road favorite and just 6-18 in their last 24 home games after playing two straight on the road. That's a 77% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers! |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | 77-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs ATS Annihilator on Thunder + The Thunder ended up losing Game 1 by 17-points, which wasn't a huge surprise given it was their first game without Ibaka. I look for Oklahoma City to make the proper adjustments for Game 2. I don't know that it will be enough for the win, but I like the value here getting 6-points. Keep in mind that the Thunder trailed the Spurs by just 7-points going into the 4th quarter. Durant and Westbrook both played well in Game 1, combining for 53 points on 19 of 40 shooting. I look for an even bigger performance out of these two in what most would consider a must-win for OKC. I also expect a stronger defensive performance in Game 2. The Spurs did as they pleased in Game 1, shooting 57.5% from the floor (50 of 87) and 52.9% from behind the 3-point line (9-17). As good as San Antonio is offensively, it's going to be extremely difficult to match that level of efficiency in consecutive games. Oklahoma City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to cover the spread, 4-1 in their last 5 conference finals games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Spurs on the other hand are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their last game. That's a 82% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason. With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points. Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana. The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER! |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs - The Spurs may have lost all 4 meetings against Oklahoma City during the regular season, but that doesn't mean anything come the playoffs. Just look at what Miami did to Brooklyn after the Nets swept the season series. On top of that, the Thunder will be without Serge Ibaka, who is not only one of their best defensive players, but someone they really rely on offensively. There was already concern that Oklahoma City relied too much on Durant and Westbrook to win it all and now it's a major issue without Ibaka. In the 4 matchups against the Spurs during the regular season, Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4 blocks and 1.3 steals. Not having him on the floor is going to make it that much easier on San Antonio defensively, as they can now focus all their attention on stopping the duo of Durant and Westbrook. At the same time, Ibaka's absence should open up things for the Spurs offense, as they should be able to get into the paint and score a lot more than they would have with him playing. San Antonio is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning road record, 14-5 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 119-72 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio. |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Indiana + The Pacers had their struggles getting to this point, but none of that matters. All the chemistry concerns can be thrown out the window, Indiana hates the Heat and I look for them to do whatever it takes to win this series. I don't know if they will, but I definitely like them getting points at home in Game 1. The Pacers are 38-10 on their home floor and when they have needed a win at home they have delivered. The home team has dominated this series when it comes to the spread. The visitor is just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the Heat are just 2-5 in their last 7 trips to Indiana. Another strong trend in play is that the Pacers are 31-19 ATS in their last 50 home games against 3-point shooting teams (36% or better) over the last 2 seasons. Take Indiana! |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder + The Thunder stole back the momentum with a furious rally at home to win Game 5 and I look for them to carry that over and finish off the Clippers with a win tonight. Despite getting a split in the two previous games at Los Angeles in the series, Oklahoma City played extremely well and arguably should have won both games. The best part about this is we don't need the Thunder to win to profit. 5-points is a lot for two evenly matched teams, especially with their being a great chance Oklahoma City will win outright. The Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their home games, 3-1-1 ATS following a game where they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record, 2-6 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS after a came where they covered the spread. Add it up and that's a 79% (27-7) system in favor of Oklahoma City! |
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05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs - The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest. San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3. The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs! |
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05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 -5.5 | 104-105 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder - My money is on the Thunder to hold serve and cover the 5.5-point spread at home. If it wasn't for a meltdown in the 4th quarter of Game 4, Oklahoma City would have a commanding 3-1 lead. While I liked the Clippers coming into this series, the Thunder have clearly looked like the better team. Los Angeles had to use ever last ounce of energy they had to rally in Game 4 and I look for them to suffer a major letdown on the road tonight. Oklahoma City's defense has really made it difficult on the Clippers, they have held them to 45% or worse from the field since allowing them to shoot 55% in Game 1. The Thunder are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100+ points and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games off a loss by 3-points or less. We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are just 53-86 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of Oklahoma City! |
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05-12-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM4 -3.5 v. PORTLAND GM4 | 92-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs - The Trail Blazers have shown nothing in the first three games and I expect the Spurs to finish them off tonight in Portland. San Antonio has made it look easy to this point, as their offense is pretty much doing whatever they want against the Trail Blazers lackluster defense. At the same time, the Spurs are making both LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard work extremely hard on the offensive end. I believe the spirit of the Trail Blazers has been broken and while some teams could suffer a letdown up 3-0, San Antonio will be motivated to finish the series and get some much-needed rest before the Western Conference Finals. Portland is just 2-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after trailing in their previous game by 15+ points at the half. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 48-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Spurs. |
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05-11-14 | INDIANA GM4 v. WASHINGTON GM4 -4.5 | 95-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Bailout Blowout on Wizards - John Wall is due for a breakout game and I expect him to deliver when it matters the most. When Wall is attacking and playing well, the rest of the offense just seems to fall into place. I also expect the Wizards to play more small ball and try and spread out the Pacers defense to get their offense back in sync. |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers - |
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05-10-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 +1.5 | 118-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers + I like the Trail Blazers getting points at home in a must win situation. Portland is going to lay everything on line to avoid going down 0-3 and with the way this team plays at home I believe they will get the job done. The Trail Blazers were are a dominant 33-11 at home over the regular season and playoffs and that includes a double-digit win over the Spurs. San Antonio did beat the Blazers on the road in the second meeting in Portland, but it was by a mere 2-points. Given what this game means to the Trail Blazers, the value is with the home team. There's a couple of strong systems in play favoring Portland. Explosive offensive teams who average 103+ ppg are 153-83 (65%) ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. We also see that home underdogs who average 103+ ppg on the season are 56-28 (67%) after allowing 55+ points in the first half in each of their last two games since 1996. |
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05-10-14 | MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 +2 | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Nets + It hasn't been as competitive a series as most expected to this point, but I don't think the Nets are going to go down without a fight. Brooklyn went into the 4th quarter with a great chance to win Game 2 in Miami, but went ice-cold from the field and ended up scoring just 15 points over the final 12 minutes. I know the Heat have won six straight in the playoffs, but if there was a game where they were going to relax and suffer a letdown, this would be it. I strongly believe the value is with Brooklyn as a home dog. Brooklyn is 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing with double revenge and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. That's a 95% system in favor of the Nets! |
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05-09-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | 118-112 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Clippers -4 This will be the seventh time these two teams will have faced off this season. No team has been able to win or cover in consecutive games and I expect that trend to continue. I know the the Thunder had the better record in the regular season and have the league's MVP in Kevin Durant, but I think the Clippers are the better team and will be the ones advancing to the Western Conference Finals. Durant is coming off a monster performance in Game 2, where he just missed out on a triple-double with 32 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists. While he's going to get his in this series, I think there's a good chance he won't have as big as impact in Game 3. Even if Durant goes off again, I don't see the Thunder getting a similar performance out of Westbrook, who scored 31 points on 13 of 22 shooting. Westbrook is only shooting 42.3% in the playoffs and I look for the Clippers to do a better job of not letting him get as many easy looks. Keep in mind that while Durant and Westbrook combined for 63 points, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin combined for just 32. I look for both Paul and Griffin to have a much bigger impact and I also like the Clippers supporting cast to have a big game. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss of 10 or more points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win pct.) are 118-71 ATS since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Clippers! |
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05-08-14 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. SAN ANTONIO GM2 | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers + As good as the Spurs looked in their 24-point win in Game 1, I like the Trail Blazers to come back with a much stronger performance in Game 2. Portland is a better team than what they showed on Tuesday and 7-points is simply too many for the Trail Blazers to be catching in this spot. It's not out of the question that Portland won't win this game outright. The Trail Blazers are too good of an offensive team to repeat their poor shooting from Game 1. Portland shot just 37.8% from the field and were a dismal 4-16 (25%) from long distance. They also had an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers and failed to bring the intensity on the defensive end. These are all areas that they can improve on in Game 2 and I believe they will. There's a key system in play suggesting a play on Portland. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an explosive offensive team, scoring 103+ ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 39-12 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! |
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05-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 82-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets + I wasn't surprised at all to see the Heat dominate Game 1, as Miami had a huge rest advantage and the Nets were coming off that huge Game 7 road win over the Raptors. After a day to regroup and really focus in on the Heat, I expect Brooklyn to look like a completely different team in Game 2. Not only do I think the Nets will keep it close enough to cover, but they have a great shot at winning this game outright. One of the reasons the Nets were able to have success against the Heat during the regular season, is they slowed the game down and really made Miami work for their offense. That wasn't the case in Game 1, but I'm confident they will execute their game plan better tonight. Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, while the Heat are a mere 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team that has won less than 40% of their road games. Combined that's a 76.5% (39-12) system in favor of the Nets! |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference Game of the Year on Thunder - Forget what happened in Game 1. The Clippers, mainly Chris Paul, caught fire in the opener and Oklahoma City was ice-cold and turned the ball over 17 times. Los Angeles shot 54.9% from the field and a staggering 51.7% from behind the 3-point line. Paul was 12 of 14 (8-9 3pts) for 32 points. One of the key things that got overlooked is the Thunder kept Blake Griffin in check for the most part, as he was just 7 of 16 from the field. The home team has dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs over the years and tonight's matchup also falls into the zig-zag theory. Another thing to keep in mind is that all four regular season games were decided by 6 or more points. This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oklahoma City returned the favor and won here by double-digits. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after a combined score of 215 or more, 50-29 ATS in their last 79 off a home loss and 17-7 in their last 24 home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite. Explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 152-82 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Thunder! |
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05-07-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4.5 | 82-86 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Pacers - The Pacers haven't looked like the same team that dominated early on in the regular season, but they have shown the ability to rally together and win when they need to. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and desperately needs a victory in Game 2 to avoid going down 0-2 with the next two games in Washington. I expect the Pacers to respond and there's a lot of value here with them laying just 4.5-points. Keep in mind that during the two regular season matchups at Indiana, the Pacers were an 11 and 9 point favorite. The Wizards are surprisingly 4-0 on the road in the playoffs, with each of their last two wins coming away from home. However, Washington is just 11-26 ATS in their last 37 games after 2 or more consecutive road victories. There's a solid system in play for Indiana. Favorites who are a good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 70-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pacers! |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Heat - Forget about the fact that the Nets swept the regular season series. Miami is a different monster in the postseason and they have a huge advantage going into this series. The Heat were the only team in the first round to sweep their opponent, while the Nets were one of several teams who had to go the distance and on top of that they had to go Toronto for Game 7 on Sunday. Miami has had a full week off and I look for the extra practice time to pay off big. The Heat are going to have new plays installed and give the Nets a different look than what they saw during the regular season. One of the reasons Brooklyn was able to have success against Miami was because they were able to slow down the game. That's not going to happen tonight. The Heat and their fresh legs will dictate the tempo and I look for them to dominate right from the opening tip. Adding to the huge rest advantage, teams who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent on just 1 day of rest are 9-3 ATS in Game 1 of a series since 2004. This system is even stronger if you look at games only dating back 2009, as it's gone 5-1 during this stretch. Overall it's a 75% system in favor of the Heat! |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 102-96 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Pacers - I was really impressed with the way the Pacers stepped up and delivered two huge performances to avoid an unthinkable upset to the Hawks in the first round. I believe that was exactly what this team needed to get out of their funk and I look for them to carry over that momentum into a win over the Wizards in Game 1. I still think a lot of people are questioning the Pacers right now and as a result I think Indiana is showing some great value at home. In the two regular season matchups between these two teams at the Fieldhouse, Indiana won and won easily. Both victories came by at least 20-points and the Wizards scored just 139 points in the two games combined. Indiana's defense really stepped in those last two games against the Hawks and that strong play on the defensive side of the ball sets up the Pacers in a favorable spot. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 42+ games into the season, with an average offense (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 85 points or less in their last game are 80-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Pacers! |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6.5 | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Spurs -6.5 My money is on the Spurs to take care of business and cover the spread at home in Game 7. San Antonio is the better team and I believe they are going to turn what most are expecting to be a close game into a blowout. The fact that San Antonio is favored by 6.5-points says a lot. The Spurs haven't covered a single game in this series and there's little doubt the public will take the points in this spot. Anytime it feels like the books have set a bad line, it's usually a good idea to go against the obvious choice. There's no denying the Maverick's ability to score the basketball, but in a Game 7 in the playoffs it's about which team can dominant on the defensive end of the floor. I don't think there's any question that San Antonio is the stronger team on that side of the ball, which is a big reason why I like the Spurs to win and cover at home. There's also a strong system in play. Favorites who are shooting 47.5% or better from the field against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ have won 62% of the time since 1996! |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 -9 | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Thunder - The Grizzlies have no chance of keeping this one close. Memphis will be without leading scorer Zach Randolph, who is suspended after throwing a punch at Oklahoma City's Steven Adams in Game 6. On top of that, starting point guard Mike Conley will be playing at less than 100% with a bum hamstring. It's hard enough for road teams to win Game 7, but I just don't see anyway the Grizzlies keep this close without Randolph and a healthy Conley running the point. I look for Oklahoma City to jump all over Memphis early and as we saw in the Grizzlies' 20-point home loss in Game 6, they are not equipped to rally from a huge deficit. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss and revenging a defeat of 10 or more points are just 31-58 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Thunder! |
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05-02-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Trail Blazers - I look for the Trail Blazers to close out the series at home tonight, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point favorite. I wasn't surprised to see the Rockets avoid elimination at home, but I just don't see Houston being able to play at the level in Portland. The Trail Blazers only lost that game by 10-points, which is pretty shocking considering they only got 8-points out of their All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. The same guy that came into that contest averaging 35.3 ppg in the series. I look for Aldridge to bounce back in style and for the rest of the players to continue to play well. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points in a matchup of two good teams are 118-70 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! Adding to this is the fact that Houston is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win by 10 or more points and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 more consecutive games! |
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05-01-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks +1.5 | 95-88 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
3* Hawks/Pacers NBA Playoffs Main Event on Hawks + Atlanta is not only a difficult matchup for the Pacers, but this Indiana team has completely fallen apart down the stretch. What made the Pacers such a great team was their effort and chemistry, but that was lost when Roy Hibbert opened his big mouth and called his teammates selfish. After watching this team fall behind by 30-points at home in crucial Game 5, I just don't think there's any recovering. Oddsmakers are all but begging for action on the Pacers with this line, which only strengthens my thought that the Hawks are going to finish the job and close out this series at home. Atlanta should have won both matchups at home, but the Pacers were able to steal a victory in Game 4. Indiana's not going to be so fortunate this time around and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks won in convincing fashion. The hot shooting of Atlanta is a big positive going into Game 6, as the Hawks are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after making 50% or more of their 3-point attempts. Atlanta is also a dominant 12-4 ATS this season after a win by 10 or more points. Indiana on the other hand is just 9-19 ATS in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are averaging 99+ points/game. These three trends combine to form a massive 72% (48-19) system in favor of the Hawks! |
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05-01-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188 | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 54 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total. In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena. It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER! |
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04-30-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -5.5 | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
3* Rockets/Trail Blazers NBA Playoffs Late Night Bailout on Rockets - While the Trail Blazers have a commanding 3-1 series lead, I fully expect the Rockets to stay alive with a relatively easy win at home in Game 5. Despite the fact that Harden is averaging 27.5 ppg in the series, he's shooting just 35% from the field and is a horrific 26.8% from behind the 3-point line. He's simply too good of a player to keep playing at this level and I'll take my chances he delivers a huge performance when it matters the most. The other thing to keep in mind is that this series could just as easily be tied at 2-2 or even a 3-1 Houston edge, as two of the Trail Blazers three wins have come in overtime. I'm not convinced that Portland will be able to win three straight at the Toyota Center, which is a big reason why I'm fine laying the 5.5-points. Keep in mind that Houston had lost just 8-times all season at home during the regular season. Even with the two losses in this series, they are still winning on average at home by 8.4 ppg. History also suggests that Portland will struggle in this matchup. The Trail Blazers are just 5-15 ATS after two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more points and 8-20 after two straight games where both teams scored 100+. The Rockets on the other hand are 32-18 ATS at home after their last game went over the total and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight games. Combined that's a massive 69% (83-38) system in favor of the Rockets! |
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04-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | 75-69 | Loss | -102 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls - Chicago is one team that won't quit no matter the circumstances. They still believe they can win this series. I don't know if the Bulls can win three straight, but a definitely like them to win and cover at home in Game 5. The Wizards have some veteran players on their roster, but a lot of these guys don't have experience closing out a series, which is even a harder to do on the road. There's also some concern with Washington coming in a little over-confident after that easy win in Game 4. Chicago is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to rebounding from a loss. The Bulls are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss and 26-16 ATS this season when revenging a loss to the same opponent. It's also worth noting that Washington head coach Randy Wittman is just 17-33 ATS on the road when his team has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. These three trends combine to form a 65% (74-39-1) system in favor of the Bulls! |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | 107-97 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Pacers - |
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04-28-14 | Miami Heat -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Heat - |
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04-27-14 | HOUSTON GM4 v. PORTLAND GM4 -2 | 120-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Trail Blazers - The Rockets were fortunate to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the series, as Troy Daniels saved their season. Portland has looked like the better team so far, yet we find them laying just 2.5-points at home. The Trail Blazers lost just 10 games at home during the entire regular season. You have to think there's a better chance they win Game 4 than drop two straight at home. Portland is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points, while Houston is just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 105 points or more in 2 straight games. We also see that home teams who have won 60% to 75% of their games, with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite are 79-39 ATS since 1996 when playing a team with a winning record. That's a 67% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! |
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04-26-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202 | 108-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Spurs UNDER The books have set the mark too high in Game 3 between the Spurs and Mavericks. While these two teams combined for 205 points in Game 2, that was with both teams shooting extremely well from the field. Dallas shot 48.9%, while the Spurs connected on exactly 50% of their attempts. The thing to keep in mind is that these two teams are now very familiar with one another by this point and let's not forget the combined for a mere 175 points in Game 1. The UNDER is 90-58 in the Spurs last 148 games when they are revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite and the average total in these games is just 187.2 points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in San Antonio's last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 after they scored 100 or points last time out. The UNDER is 68-30 in Game 3 of a playoff series with a total set at 200 or more points and 42-14 since 1996 when this takes place in the first round. That's a 75% system in favor of the UNDER! |
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04-25-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -5 | 98-102 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Nets - The Nets could have easily won both games in Toronto. They had a 8-point lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 2, before completely falling apart defensively. Brooklyn allowed Toronto to put up 36-points in the final 12 minutes. While it was a disappointing loss, I look that poor finish to light a fire under the Nets at home. Brooklyn finished the regular season a solid 28-13 at home, but were even stronger than that down the stretch. The Nets went 15-2 over their final 17 games at the Barclays Center. Not only have they been winning, but most importantly they have been covering the spread. Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record. The Raptors don't exactly have a history of playing well on the road in the playoffs. Toronto has lost 12 straight away from home in the postseason. The Nets have also responded well from a loss on the road against the same opponent. Brooklyn is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games revenging a road loss. Toronto on the other hand is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their games at home. If you add up all the trends mentioned, it combines to form a rock solid 81% (39-9-1) system in favor of the Nets! |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | 98-96 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Warriors + |
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04-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks +2.5 | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Hawks + |
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04-23-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -6 | 112-105 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Rockets - There's a solid system in play favoring Houston. Teams who have scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games (Rockets) in a contest involving two horrible defense teams (102+ ppg) are 83-54 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 61% system in favor of Houston! |
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04-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5 | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Bulls - The Bulls let Game 1 get away from them, as they managed to blow a 13-point second half lead. Even with the loss, I still feel like Chicago is the better team and I fully expect them to bounce back with a dominating performance in Game 2. The Wizards will be content with going back to Washington tied 1-1, which will make it difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. I'm also confident the Bulls won't allow the Wizards to top 100 points and shoot 48.6% from the field like they did in Game 1. No team is better on the defensive end than Chicago. Tom Thibodeau and his staff will make the proper adjustments. Keep in mind that in the final regular season meeting the Bulls held Washington to just 78 points on 39.5% shooting. Few teams are as good as the Bulls at bouncing back from a loss. Chicago is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games off a home loss. The Bulls are also a dominant 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last contest! |
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04-22-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Raptors - Toronto found themselves down 8-points after the 1st quarter and while they were able to fight back that early hole proved to be too much in the end. Keep in mind that the Raptors were making their first playoff appearance in six years. It's not a huge surprise to see them come out sluggish in Game 1. With a better understanding of what to expect, I look for a completely different Toronto team to take the floor in Game 2. Toronto is 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss, while the Nets are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Raptors are also a dominant 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their last game. Combined that's a 82.5% (32-7-1) system in favor of the Raptors! |
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04-22-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5 | 85-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers - Atlanta is just 3-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest and will find it difficult to not relax in Game 2. They came into Indiana hoping for a split and with that already in the bag, I see a huge letdown coming tonight. You also have to keep in mind that the Pacers are the better team and if they respond like they should, there's no reason they won't win this game by double-digits. Indiana is 23-11 ATS over the last two seasons at home off a loss in their last game and have won these contests by an average of 10.2 ppg! |
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04-21-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 | Top | 98-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Clippers - The Warriors stunned the Clippers in Game 1 of the series, as they came away with a 109-105 road win. However, I'm not convinced Golden State will be able to match that performance in Game 2. Blake Griffin played just 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Griffin is the most important player for Los Angeles and not having him on the floor completely changed the dynamics of that game. One of the big advantages the Clippers have in this series with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut is their size. The fact that Griffin was able to score 16 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists in such a limited amount of time, really says a lot about the impact he can have on the game. Not only can we expect Griffin to dominate in Game 2, but Jamal Crawford figures to play a bigger role after going just 2-11 from the field in 22 minutes off the bench.
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04-20-14 | PORTLAND GM1 v. HOUSTON GM1 OVER 214 | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Total Dominator on Rockets/Blazers OVER - I know the playoffs are suppose to bring out the best in teams defensively, but there's simply too much offensive fire-power between the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Houston finished 2nd in scoring at 107.7 ppg, while Portland was 4th at 106.7 ppg. The big key here is that both teams love to play at a fast pace, which should have both teams flying over their season averages. Oddsmakers simply didn't set the bar high enough with this number. In the season series the fewest these two combined to score was 215 points and that was with the two combining to go 13 for 47 (27.7%) from the 3-point line. The OVER is 10-1 in the Trail Blazers last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage between 60% to 70% and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 in the same situation. It's also 12-3 in Portland's 15 games this season versus teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game and 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 games in the 2nd half against teams who average 83 or more shots/game. Total that's a 44-9 (83%) system in favor of the OVER! |
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04-20-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | 102-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Bulls - The Bulls are a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs and I like how they matchup with the Wizards. Keep in mind that the only reason Washington is the No. 5 seed, is because the Nets purposely fell back to No. 6. Chicago lost the first two games of the season series, but in the most recent matchup they embarrassed the Wizards 96-78 on their home floor. Washington shot just 39.5% from the field and were sitting on just 26-points at the half. That's what Chicago's defense can do to teams and I look for the Bulls' defense to really make life miserable for the Wizards in this series. Energy is everything for the Bulls and they will have plenty of at home in the first game of the series. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 3 or more days rest. Joakim Noah, who has carried this team down the stretch with his play, will be playing even harder than normal after the recent death of his mentor Tyrone Green. Not only do I expect a big effort out of Noah, but I look for the rest of the Bulls players to rally around the potential Defensive Player of the Year. |
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04-19-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 210.5 | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors OVER I know playoff games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the total, but I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for the Clippers and Warriors. Los Angeles led the NBA in scoring at 107.9 ppg and the Warriors were 10th at 104.3 ppg. If the two teams were to simply put up their average, we would be over the total by 1-point. That might not seem like a lot of value, but you have to remember the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, who is one of the top rim protectors in the league and a huge reason why Golden State finished 10th in scoring defense (99.5 ppg). Without Bogut the Warriors are going to have to play a smaller lineup, which I believe is going to force them to rely even more on the outside shot and play at a faster pace to try and get some easy baskets in transition. The Clippers love to play up-tempo and I look for them to score at will against the Warriors at home. The OVER is 14-4 in the Clippers last 18 home games in the month of April, 5-1 in their last 6 first round playoff games, 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record and 12-4 when they are playing a team who won more than 60% of their games. It's also 4-1 in the Warriors last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 76% (54-17) Massive System in favor of the OVER! |
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04-19-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Vegas Insider on Raptors - The Raptors are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is getting a little too much love right now. The Nets were not a great team away from home. They finished just 16-25 straight up on the road and were a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road. Toronto lost at home in the first meeting 100-102, but they came back and crushed the Nets at the Air Canada Centre 96-80 back in early January. Brooklyn won the final matchup between these two teams during the regular season by a score of just 101-97 at home. Toronto is 45-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons revenging a road loss. The Raptors were stronger both offensively and defensively during the regular season. Brooklyn ranked just 21st in scoring (98.5 ppg) and were 11th in points allowed (99.5 ppg). Toronto on the other hand ranked 13th in scoring (101.3 ppg) and 7th in points allowed (98.0). One of the reasons I think we are getting such great value on the Raptors is they went just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including back-to-back non-covers to close out the regular season. Toronto is a dominant 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. |
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04-16-14 | Philadelphia 76ers +5 v. Miami Heat | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on 76ers + This game means absolutely nothing to the Heat and they are expected to rest both LeBron James and Chris Bosh. I would also expect Miami to limit the rest of the starters' minutes. The only reason Miami is favored in this game is because they are playing the 76ers, who are one of the most difficult teams in the league to back no matter what the spread. I believe this has created exceptional value on Philadelphia, who have a more than legit shot at winning this game outright. Keep in mind the 76ers beat Miami earlier this season with both Bosh and James playing 30+ minutes a piece.
Philadelphia is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Miami is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their road games!
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04-14-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | 97-91 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Suns -
The Suns need to win this game to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive. Phoenix can pull even with the Grizzlies in the standings with a win. While Memphis would secure the 8th and final spot with a victory, they still have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs even with a loss. Due to the fact that the Grizzlies have won each of the previous three meetings against Phoenix this season, Memphis holds the tiebreaker and would simply need to beat the Mavericks at home on Wednesday. I'm not saying the Grizzlies won't take this game seriously, but they aren't in the best of scheduling spots. Memphis had to play last night in Los Angeles and both Marc Gasol (36) and Mike Conley (34) played big minutes. With the tempo that Phoenix likes to play at, I could see the Grizzlies coming out flat and lacking some intensity on the defensive end. Keep in mind that Memphis is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Phoenix hasn't played since Saturday and are a dominant 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Suns are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 following a SU loss and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in two of their last 3. Adding to this is the fact that the Grizzlies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game as a road favorite, while the Suns are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after playing their last game as a road underdog. |
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04-14-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz -5.5 | 119-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Jazz -
It's been a difficult season for the Jazz, but I look for them to come out and play extremely hard in their home finale tonight against the Lakers. With a win Utah can also pull even with Los Angeles for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Jazz are a respectable 16-24 at home for a team that has won just 24 games all season. The Lakers are equally as bad as Utah, but the big key here is that Los Angeles will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set in the thin air of Salt Lake City. I just don't see the Lakers coming out with any energy or interest in this game, as they put a lot of effort into last night's game against the Grizzlies. Utah has taken 2 of 3 against the Lakers this season, including a 96-79 blowout win in Los Angeles in the most recent meeting. That combined with the Lakers 12-point loss to Memphis last night set up a favorable system to fade Los Angeles. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss of 10+ points and off a home loss by 10+ in their last game are just 31-61 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Jazz! |
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04-13-14 | Toronto Raptors -6.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Raptors -
While the Raptors recently clinched the Atlantic Division title, I look for them to come out strong against the Pistons. Toronto is a game back of Chicago for 3rd place and there's a big difference between finishing 3rd and 4th. Right now the Raptors would have to open up against the surging Nets and then face off against the Heat if they were able to advance to the 2nd round. Regardless if they catch the Bulls or not, the key here is that Toronto should show up. Detroit on the other hand has absolutely nothing to play for and with the Raptors only playing for seeding, there's not a lot of reason for the Pistons to get excited about this game. Hard for me to believe a team that is completely out of it would be interested in an early afternoon game on a Sunday. Keep in mind that Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday. One of the big keys here is that the Pistons don't play a whole lot of defense. Detroit is allowing 110.0 ppg over their last 5. Bad defensive teams tend to struggle down the stretch. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 99+ ppg on the season are just 37-72 ATS in the month of April over the last 5 years. That's a 66% system in favor of the Raptors! |
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04-12-14 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -9.5 | 94-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Nuggets -
The Nuggets may be out of the playoff race, but they have continued to play hard down the stretch and as a result are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. While Denver is just 3-6 SU in their last 9 games, it's worth noting that all six of those defeats came against teams who are currently in the playoff race. In fact their only game against a non-playoff contender during that stretch was versus the Pelicans at home. The Nuggets won that contest 137-107. I don't see Denver having any problem beating the Jazz by double-digits. Utah is just 2-14 over their last 16 games and for the most part have not been competitive. The Jazz find themselves in the second game of a back-to-back set and this can be a very difficult spot for a bad team at this point in the season. Utah has no reason to get motivated for this game, as they have won each of the previous two matchups against the Nuggets. The Jazz are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest. There's also a strong system favoring the Nuggets. A marginal losing team (40%-49%) who has gone over the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 seven games are 53-24 ATS over the last 5 seasons versus a bad team (25%-40%). That's a 69% system in favor of Denver! |
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04-11-14 | Charlotte Bobcats -5 v. Boston Celtics | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Brainer on Bobcats -
This is a great price to get the surging Bobcats against the free falling Celtics. Charlotte has won five straight and are now 6th in the Eastern Conference standings. A spot they would like to keep, as they would avoid a first round matchup against either Miami or Indiana. Boston on the other hand has lost 9 straight and 14 of their last 15 overall. Because the Bobcats were so bad a year ago, the public still has a difficult time getting behind this team. They have been showing great value just about every time they take the floor, which is why they are an impressive 46-29 ATS on the season. Charlotte has really added to this of late, going 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games. While they did lose 86-96 at home to the Celtics in the most recent meeting, they were able to come away with a 89-83 victory in their only trip to Boston this season. It's also worth mentioning that the loss to the Celtics was way back on Nov. 25 when they weren't playing very well. Charlotte is 17-8 ATS revenging a loss of 10 or more points this season. The Bobcats also come in off a full two days rest and will be playing just their third game in the last seven days. Charlotte is 14-6 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bobcats are 16-2 ATS in the second half of the season versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots /game. Key system telling us to fade Boston. Home teams off 6 or more consecutive losses in the month of April are just 8-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Bobcats! |
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04-09-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Portland Trail Blazers -13 | 99-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers -
I'm not worried about the massive line in this one. This is a perfect spot to fade the Kings, who just played a huge game last night at home against Oklahoma City. I just don't see a horrible team like Sacramento coming out strong on the road with no rest at this point in the season. Making matters even worse is the Kings are expected to once again be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas and could also be missing Rudy Gay (questionable). It's no secret that the Trail Blazers are at their best at home. Portland is 28-10 at home, compared to just 22-18 on the road. There's still an outside chance that the Blazers could catch 4th place Houston, which would give them the home court edge in the first round of the playoffs. That should be more than enough motivation for Portland to make easy work of the Kings. Keep in mind the last time Sacramento went on the road, they were annihilated by 33-points at Golden State. Portland is 19-9 ATS when playing just their 4th game in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Trail Blazers will also be out for revenge as they fell 119-123 in Sacramento in the most recent matchup. Portland is 19-7 ATS this season when revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. Combined that's a 70% (38-16) system favoring a Trail Blazers cover! |
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04-09-14 | Miami Heat v. Memphis Grizzlies -4 | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Limit ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies -
I think this is a great spot to fade the Heat. Miami has lost two of their last overall, including an upset loss at home to the Nets last night. While most would expect the Heat to rebound, you have to keep in mind that they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. That's becomes even more of a problem for Miami when you factor in that Memphis is playing on a full 2 days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 5 days overall. While Miami is playing for home-court in the East, they have a .5-game lead over the Pacers and Indiana is starting to rest some of their key players. I don't believe this game is as important to the Heat as most think. As for the Grizzlies, their season is pretty much on the line. Memphis is 1-game back of 8th place Phoenix for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs and have just 5 games left to make up the ground. Even if Miami does show up, I still like the Grizzlies to win and cover. Memphis has won 11 straight at home. Last time the Heat visited FedEx Forum the Grizzlies won convincingly 104-86. Miami just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus the Western Conference, while the Grizzlies are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games against a team with a winning road record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 2 days of rest. Combined that's a 73% (47-17) system favoring a Memphis cover! |
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04-09-14 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Bulls - |
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04-08-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 107-92 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
I look for the Thunder to be all business when they take the floor against the Kings tonight. Oklahoma City comes into this game having lost 2 straight and are in danger of falling out of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder are just one game ahead of the Clippers with six games to play. The good news is that Oklahoma City should have no trouble turning tonight's matchup against Sacramento into a blowout. The Kings have absolutely nothing to play for and to make matters worse they will be without point guard Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 20.7 points and 6.4 assists on the year. In the two most recent meetings against the Kings, the Thunder have won by 13 and 15 points. Oklahoma City is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games when they come in having failed to cover the number in 2 out of their last 3 games, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games when playing on a full days rest and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Add it up and that's a 53-21-1 (72%) system in favor of the Thunder! We also see that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss to an opponent, after covering the spread but losing their last game outright as an underdog are just 41-84 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's another 67% system in favor of Oklahoma City! |
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04-07-14 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Connecticut | 54-60 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Championship Game No Brainer on Kentucky -
You could argue that the Wildcats are lucky to be in the championship game, but the simple fact is this team just keeps on finding ways to win games. Kentucky has now knocked off the likes of Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan and Wisconsin in their last four games. Not to take anything away from what Connecticut has done, but this is by far the most talented team they have faced in the tournament. They are just as talented and as strong defensively as Florida, but with far more offensive weapons. I look for the Wildcats to really pick apart the Huskies inside. On the other side of the ball, I look for Kentucky's athleticism to really make life difficult for Shabazz Napier and the rest of UConn's players. Connecticut does a solid job of taking care of the basketball, but Kentucky is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game. The Wildcats are excellent at drawing fouls, which not only gets them to the line, but can cause problems for the opposition with foul trouble. The Huskies have not fared well against similar teams, as they are just 3-12 in their last 15 versus teams who average 28 or more free throw attempts per game. Kentucky is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 following 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, while Connecticut is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 60 points or less in two consecutive games and 1-12 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins. Combined that's a 34-4 (89%) system in favor of the Wildcats! |
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04-06-14 | New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 188.5 | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA Total No Brainer on Knicks/Heat UNDER
I look for Sunday's showdown between the Knicks and Heat to finish well below the posted total. I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity. New York desperately needs this game, as they are one game back of Atlanta for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with just 5 games left on the schedule. Miami on the other hand is tied with the Pacers for the top spot. Adding some value to the UNDER is the fact that this game will tip off at 1:00 EST, which could have the offenses coming out flat with the early start time. Both of these teams come in playing extremely well defensively. The Knicks are allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Heat are only giving up 85.4 over their last 5. Oddsmakers have pretty much informed us that the game will be a defensive battle. Despite the fact that these two teams have combined for at least 190 points in each of three previous meetings (no total was lower than 197.5 for the game), we have a total for this one set below 190. They are clearly trying to get money on the over and I'm showing just over 60% of the bets right now being placed on the over. The UNDER is 15-5 in the Knicks last 20 games versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 overall. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 versus a team with a losing record and 10-2 in their last 12 off a SU loss. Combined that's a 36-7 (84%) angle favoring this game to finish below the mark. |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2 | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Final Four Vegas Insider on Wisconsin +2
Not to take anything away from what Kentucky has done to this point, but the Badgers should not be an underdog in this matchup. Wisconsin is a perfect 17-0 in non-conference games this season. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 outside the Big 10 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral setting. There's a lot of talk about Kentucky and their talented freshman, but I feel that youth is going to haunt them against a well-coached Wisconsin team that is adapt to playing against all different styles. The fact that Bo Ryan gets extra time to prepare for the Wildcats, is a huge advantage for the Badgers. At the same time I think the time off could hurt Kentucky, who are just 13-25 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days. Two things that Kentucky has done extremely well is get to the foul line and create second chance opportunities with offensive rebounds. While I could see the Badgers having some trouble keeping the Wildcats off the glass, they aren't going to allow Kentucky easy points at the free throw line. Wisconsin is only giving up 15 free throw attempts per game on the season and are 24-7 ATS at least 15 games into the season against teams who average 25 or more free throw attempts since 1997! That's a 77% long-term system in our pocket. It's also worth noting that the Badgers are a solid 40-22 ATS in their last 62 games versus teams averaging 40 or more rebounds/game. One final trend that supports the Badgers. Wisconsin is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament when they are a No. 4 seed or better and have won these contests by an average score of 69.9 to 56.7! |
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04-05-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards UNDER 183 | 96-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Wizards UNDER
I expect a defensive battle tonight in Washington. Both these teams are fighting for playoff position. The Bulls are currently tied with the Raptors for 3rd in the East, while the Wizards are just 1.5-games back of 5th place Brooklyn and 2 games in front of 7th place Charlotte. Washington isn't as worried about catching the Nets as they are avoiding 7th and 8th, where they would have to face off against either Miami or Indiana in the first round. Not only are these two of the better teams in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, but the big key is that neither look to push to the pace. Washington ranks 18th with an average of 95.6 possessions and the Bulls are way down there at 28th with just 92.8. I expect an even slower pace than what we normally see from these two, as both are in the second game of a back-to-back. On top of that, this will be Chicago's 5th game in the last 7 days and the Wizards 6th in the last 9 days. The UNDER is 23-10 in the Bulls last 33 when playing on no rest, 16-6 in Chicago's last 22 with a line of +3 to -3, 17-7 in the Wizards last 24 when listed as a home favorite of 6 or less and 20-7 in Washington's last 27 in the second half of the season versus teams who have won between 51% to 60% of their games. Combined that's a 76-30 (72%) system! |
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04-04-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NBA Western Conference No Brainer on Rockets -
This is the perfect spot to fade the Thunder and take advantage of the Rockets laying just 2.5-points at home. Oklahoma City comes in off an impressive 106-94 win over the Spurs last night, snapping San Antonio's 19-game winning streak. The key here is that I just don't see the Thunder coming out strong in the second game of a back-to-back set. They don't have a ton to play for in the standings, as they are 3-games back of the Spurs and 2.5 ahead of the Clippers. Oklahoma City will also be without starting point guard Russell Westbrook, who is not playing in the second game of back-to-backs. Houston on the other hand has a lot at stake in this one. The Rockets desperately need to get things headed in the right direction after dropping three straight. Houston currently has homecourt in the first round of the playoffs, but are just 1-game ahead of 5th place Portland. You also have to take into consideration how well the Rockets have been playing at home, where they are 29-8 on the season. Houston's 11-1 over their last 12 games at the Toyota Center. While the Rockets have lost all three matchups against the Thunder this season, home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are playing with triple revenge versus an opponent who has covered the spread in each of their last two games are 68-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 66% long-term system favoring Houston to cover! |
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04-04-14 | Washington Wizards v. New York Knicks UNDER 196.5 | 90-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks UNDER
Due to recent performances, I believe the bar has been set too high in this one. The Wizards put up 118 against the Celtics last time out, while the Knicks scored 110 against the Nets. Even with those offensive outburts, we see that Washington is only averaging 99.4 ppg over the their last 5 and New York putting up just 97.2 ppg over their last 5. This is an important game for both teams. While the Wizards have clinched a playoff spot, they are currently sitting in 6th place, just 2 games ahead of Charlotte. The last thing they want to do is to fall back to 7th and have to play either Miami or Indiana in the first round. The Knicks on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives. While they are technically ahead of the Hawks for the 8th and final spot, Atlanta has one fewer losses. With so much at stake, I expect both teams to bring it on the defensive end tonight. There's also a strong system that supports a play on the UNDER. Since 1996 the UNDER has gone 23-4 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where the road team enters having scored 55 or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent who scored 60 or more in the first half of their last contest. That's a 85% system in favor of the UNDER! |
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04-03-14 | Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Brainer on Mavericks +
The Mavericks will be treating every game down the stretch like it's a playoff game and I believe it has Dallas showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point dog against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff spot and are more focused on getting healthy than winning games right now. This is also a big revenge spot for the Mavericks, who just recently lost at home to Los Angeles last Thursday. The fact that the Clippers just beat Dallas will make it that much harder to get excited about tonight's matchup. The Clippers are expected to have Blake Griffin back tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if they took it easy on their All-Star to make sure he's 100% come playoff time. They are still without one of their top scores and key reserve in Jamal Crawford, who means more to this team than a lot of people realize. This is also a difficult scheduling spot for Los Angeles. They just played a up-tempo game last night at Phoenix and are returning home from a lengthy 5-game road trip. Overall this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. We find a solid system telling us to fade the Clippers. Home favorites who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game after allowing 110 or more in their last contest are just 50-89 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of a Mavericks cover. Adding to this is the fact that Dallas is 23-13 ATS in their last 36 road games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games when listed as an underdog. |
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04-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
With the Spurs playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and potentially resting some of their key players tonight, I look for Oklahoma City to put an end to San Antonio's 20-game winning streak. Oklahoma City has been playing pretty well themselves, as they enter having won 6 of their last 7. Not only are the Spurs playing on consecutive nights, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder on the other hand are playing on a full 3-days rest. It's not just scheduling that makes Oklahoma City a play tonight. The Thunder have dominated this series, winning 7 of the last 8, including a 111-105 road win over the Spurs in the most recent meeting on Jan. 22. Those worried about the Spurs being out for revenge, will be happy to see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss and fresh off a cover as a double-digit favorite are just 13-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 73% system in favor of the Thunder! |
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04-03-14 | Yale v. Murray State -7.5 | 57-65 | Win | 101 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
3* CIT Championship Main Event on Murray State -
I got Murray State cruising to an easy win at home in the CIT Championship Game. The Racers have had the luxury of hosting each of their last three opponents in the CIT and have won all three by at last 12-points, including a 23-point blowout win over Pacific in Tuesday's semifinal matchup. Murray State is now 16-1 at home this season, where they are outscoring the opposition by just under 14 ppg. Yale has had an impressive run to the title game, winning each of their last three one the road. I just don't see the Bulldogs run continuing against a much stronger Murray State squad. Not only is Yale in a tough spot, but they are expected to be without their best player in Justin Sears, who suffered a hand injury in the Bulldogs win over VMI on Tuesday. Sears leads the team in both scoring (16.9 ppg)and rebounding (6.9 rpg), plus he averages 1.2 steals and nearly 2 blocks a game. Without Sears leading the way, this one could get ugly quick for Yale against the Racers. |
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04-02-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Suns -
I'll gladly back the Suns at home as small favorite against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles will be without two of their top scorers in All-Star forward Blake Griffin (24.0 ppg) and key reserve Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg). You also have to keep in mind that the Clippers are also playing without both Danny Granger and J.J. Redick. Without two of their top players and having already secured a winning record on their current 5-game road trip, I look for the Clippers to come out flat and uninterested. The Suns on the other hand will be all business, as Phoenix is in a dogfight for one of the final playoff spots in the West. The Suns are currently tied for 7th in the standings, but are just 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Dallas. We also find the Suns in a huge motivational spot from their ugly 99-115 road loss to the Lakers last time out, which snapped a 6-game winning streak. Phoenix should also benefit from a full 2 days rest against the depleted Clippers, who are playing their 5th road game in 8 days. Explosive offensive teams who are averaging 103+ ppg (Suns) that trailed in their previous game by 15+ points are 147-79 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of Phoenix. We also see that the Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. |
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04-02-14 | Fresno State +1 v. Siena | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
4* CBI Tournament Vegas Insider on Fresno State +
Fresno State was upset at home 57-61 in Game 1 of their best of 3 series against Siena in the CBI Championship. I still feel the Bulldogs are the better team, which makes them a strong play as a mere 1-point dog tonight. If it wasn't for turnovers and offensive rebounds the Bulldogs would have likely won Game 1. Fresno State turned it over 16 times to Siena's 8 and allowed the Saints to grab 17 offensive rebounds. The Bulldogs were clearly the better team aside from those mental mistakes. They shot an impressive 48% from the field and held the Saints to a mere 33% shooting. While both teams will be motivated when they take the floor, this is a do-or-die situation for Fresno State. Siena on the other hand can relax knowing that they don't have to win this game to keep their season alive. Fresno State is 8-1 ATS in their last 8 when listed as a road underdog of 6 points or less and a perfect 7-0 revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a home favorite. Combined that forms a 15-1 (94%) system in favor of the Bulldogs! |
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04-01-14 | Pacific v. Murray State -6 | 75-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
3* College Insider Late Night Bailout on Murray State -
Murray State hasn't let a disappointing finish keep them from showing up in the College Insider Tournament. The Racers went 13-3 in the Ohio Valley during the regular season, with the three losses coming by a combined 13-points. Murray State then suffered a heartbreaking 83-86 defeat to Eastern Kentucky in the Ohio Valley Tournament. The Racers opened the CIT with a 66-63 road win over Missouri State. They then returned home with convincing wins over Nebraska-Omaha (86-62) and Towson (85-73). Murray State is now 15-1 at home, where they have outscored opponents by just over 13.0 ppg. While Pacific edged out Grand Canyon 69-67 on the road in their CIT opener, they have had their struggles away from home. In the Tigers last 8 road games they are 3-5 with four of those losses coming by double-digits. The other two wins on the road besides Grand Canyon came against San Diego and Loyola Marymount, who combined went 11-25 in the WCC. Pacific is just 28-48 ATS in their last 76 road games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Murray State on the other hand is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Racers are also a perfect 6-0 ATS this season at home after playing their last game at home. |
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04-01-14 | Houston Rockets v. Brooklyn Nets -3 | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Nets -3
Solid value here on the Nets laying just 3-points at home against the Rockets. Brooklyn has won 13 straight at home and are a dominant 11-1 ATS over their last 12 at the Barclays Center. Houston is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than 60%. We also find the Rockets playing at less than full strength. Houston is expected to be without All-Star center Dwight Howard and will once again not have guards Patrick Beverley or Ronnie Brewer available. We could also see forward Terrance Jones added to the list, who is questionable. In their last game the Rockets lost 107-118 at home to the Clippers. The public will be expecting Houston to bounce back, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a double-digit home defeat. We also ease the concern with the fact that the Rockets won 114-95 at home in the previous matchup against Brooklyn with the fact that the Nets are 13-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season. Adding even more value to this is a strong system that supports both angles. Teams who are revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the opponent is off a home loss by 10 or more are 109-67 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Nets. |
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03-31-14 | Siena v. Fresno State -8 | 61-57 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
3* CBI Championship Main Event on Fresno State -
I have the Bulldogs winning at home by double-digits in Game 1 of the CBI Championship Finals. Fresno State was a respectable 13-5 at home this season, where they outscored the opposition by nearly 10 ppg. Siena on the other hand was just 5-13 on the road. Each of the Saints three wins in the CBI all came at home, where they only lost 4 times all season. Sieana's offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. The Saints are averaging just 60.3 ppg in the CBI. That's important to note, as Siena is just 1-8 in their last 9 road games after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games. Fresno State is simply the better team and that's evident by the fact that they finished a respectable 9-9 in the Mountain West, compared to Siena's 11-9 record in the soft MAAC. It's also worth mentioning that Siena's Rob Poole and guard Marquis Wright are both banged up. Poole & Wright are expected to play, but will likely be playing at less than 100%. Poole leads the Saints with 14.7 ppg and Wright averages 8.5 and a team-high 5.4 apg. |
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03-31-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Clippers -
Even with the Clippers expected to be without Blake Griffin (doubtful), I feel there is huge value here on Los Angeles as a mere 2.5-point favorite. The Clippers are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall and a perfect 3-0 this season versus the Timberwolves. Minnesota is fresh off a 99-114 loss at Brooklyn, which has them a full 7-games back of the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race. While they aren't mathematically eliminated, they know their not playing past the regular season. The letdown from missing the playoffs should have the Timberwolves coming out flat over their final 10 games. While the Clippers are safely in the playoffs, they are just 1.5-games back of the Thunder for the No. 2 seed. That's more than enough motivation to finish strong. Road favorites off 2 or more consecutive road wins who have won at least 60% of their games are 40-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of Los Angeles. The Clippers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when listed as a favorite off a road win as an underdog. |
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03-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 | 103-77 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pacers +4.5
The Pacers' are a league-best 33-4 at home this season and are showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point underdog. While the Pacers have lost two straight and four of five overall, each of those defeats came on the road. Indiana hasn't lost at home since March 4. I'm confident the Pacers will show up in this one, as they should be extremely motivated to snap out of their funk and put an end to the Spurs 17-game winning streak. Even more reason to get up for this game is the fact that Indiana has lost 5 straight at home to San Antonio. You have to like that the Pacers didn't have any trouble getting past the Spurs in their previous meeting this season. Indiana came away with a 111-100 victory in San Antonio. We find a solid system telling us to fade the Spurs. Teams revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points against an opponent who is fresh off an upset loss to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Pacers covering. We also see that underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in at least 12 of their last 15 games against an opponent who has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system backing Indiana! |
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03-30-14 | Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Chicago Bulls -
The Chicago Bills are clearly the much better team in this matchup, and I don't think this line is giving them enough credit. Chicago may have clinched a playoff spot, but they are still playing to improve their position since they currently sit in fourth place in the East. Picking up a win over Boston would potentially move them into a tie for third with Toronto. This biggest advantage Chicago has in this game is its outstanding defense. The Bulls have held opponents to a mere 91.9 points per game this season. They have an easy task at hand facing the offensively challenged Celtics tonight. Boston is averaging a mere 95.6 points per game, and they barely get a boost in production at home improving to just 95.8 points per game. Defensively Boston has been soft allowing 99.7 points per game. Over their last five games the Celtics have been even worse, surrendering 101.6 points per game. This matchup fits into a system to play on road teams like Chicago when they have gone under the total by 36 or more points in their last five games and they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games overall on the season. This system has a 109-54 (67%) ATS record over the last five seasons. The Bulls come into this matchup with a 40-32 record which puts them right at 55 percent on the season. After a poor showing against Portland in their last outing I think the Bulls are coming into this matchup completely undervalued. |
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03-30-14 | Kentucky v. Michigan +2.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Michigan +
The Wildcats have put together a nice run in the NCAA Tournament, but that ends today against the underrated Michigan Wolverines. Michigan will be one of the best shooting teams the Wildcats have faced, and I don't think Kentucky's defense is good enough to slow them down. The Wolverines are making 47.7 percent of their attempts from the field, and an impressive 40.2 percent of their attempts from beyond the three point line. The Wildcats receive a lot of credit for a young roster that is loaded with one-and-done caliber players. In a game of this magnitude I will take the Wolverines who have not only NBA caliber talent, but also the experience to go along with it. Michigan made a run at the championship last season, and they are hungry to get back into that game to prove they are worthy of a national championship. Nik Stauskas and Glen Robinson III are two of the best players in the country, and Kentucky will not have an answer for both of them. Kentucky relies on a lot of its scoring coming from the free throw line. They average 29 free throw attempts per game. They will not have that luxury against a smart basketball team like Michigan because the Wolverines average only 14 personal fouls per game and have allowed opponents just 15 attempts from the line. Kentucky is 2-9 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams being called for 17 or less fouls per game. Michigan has been a great team to back in the postseason, posting a 19-8 ATS record in their last 27 games and I look for that trend to continue today. |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -2.5 | 64-63 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Arizona -
The Wildcats get a lot of credit for their defense, and it is well deserved. However, it is Arizona's scoring ability that gives them a big advantage over the Badgers. Arizona averages a respectable 73.1 points per game on the season, and they are +14.7 points in scoring differential. The defense ranks fifth in the country allowing 58.4 points per game, and after adjusting for strength of schedule you could make a strong argument that the Wildcats are the best in the nation. The biggest advantage Arizona has in this matchup is its rebounding ability. The Wildcats average 38 rebounds per game to just 33 from the Badgers. On the offensive glass Arizona is pulling in 10 boards, to just eight from Wisconsin. Both of these teams are excellent ball control teams, and both of put up similar numbers on the offensive end of the court, but it is Arizona's defense and rebounding ability that makes them an easy call to advance to the Final Four. The path to the Elite Eight has presented Arizona with several different types of challengers. Against Gonzaga the Wildcats were tasked with shutting down an explosive offense, and against San Diego State they had to get by a very tough defense. Arizona is 14-5 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams that are allowing less than 64 points per game so I don't expect the Wildcats to have any problem getting past Wisconsin. It is also worth noting that Arizona is 20-8 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. |
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03-29-14 | Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Washington Wizards | 97-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Atlanta Hawks +
The Washington Wizards need to be on upset alert tonight. Atlanta has played extremely well against the division this season. The Hawks average 104.2 points per game against division opponents, and they will face a Wizards defense that has been struggling recently allowing 101 points per game. The Wizards are playing in a bad letdown spot. First of all, they are coming off an upset win as an underdog against the Indiana Pacers. They are also playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation while Atlanta has the luxury of coming into this matchup with a day of rest. You should play on road teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 98 to 102 points per game when they are coming off two or more games allowing 100 points or more. This system is 88-33 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The Hawks have surrendered 100 plus in three straight games, but the oddsmakers have undervalued them in this matchup since offensively the team should score at-will against the Wizards. |
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03-29-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2 | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -
The Houston Rockets have one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the league. They are averaging 108.8 points per game at home, and over their last five games that number is an even more impressive 118.2 points per game. Houston is on fire coming into this matchup having won five consecutive games. The Clippers may have won three of their last five games, but they have been getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers in those matchups. Los Angeles is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five. The Clippers defense is also in big trouble tonight against the Rockets. They have surrendered 101.2 points per game on the road, and 102.4 points per game over their last five games, but have not faced a team that scores as quickly and easily as Houston during that stretch. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Houston that are making 33 to 36.5 percent of their three-point attempts when they are facing a team allowing that same range defensively, and they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers against an average pressure defense that forces 14.6 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 59-32 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +7.5 | 133-102 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets +
The Spurs have put together a long winning streak, but they struggled at home on Wednesday when facing the Nuggets. Now they get the Nuggets again, but this time in Denver. The Spurs won the last meeting by just five points in San Antonio, so getting over seven points on the Nuggets in Denver is a gift from the oddsmakers. The Nuggets may not have a great record, but they have certainly been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations. Denver has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games. Covering the spread usually comes pretty easy for a team that is averaging 105.1 points per game at home. It is also worth noting that Denver is 10-1 ATS in home games when playing a team that has won 70 percent or more of its games on the season. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Nuggets. You should play on underdogs like Denver when they average 103 points per game or more, and they allowed 55 points or more in the first have of their last two games. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued. It has resulted in a 55-27 (67%) record against the spread. |
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03-28-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | 91-74 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -
The Bulls have a lot to play for tonight so I expect to see them put on a very strong showing. Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Trail Blazers, and you have to like their chances to do so considering the situation Portland is playing in. The Trail Blazers will play their fifth consecutive road game, and it also happens to be the second half of a back-to-back after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday. The Bulls and Pacers can both make strong arguments for the best defense in the NBA. I would lean towards Chicago taking that crown when they have the luxury of playing on their home court. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 89.4 points per game at home this season while Portland comes into this matchup allowing 104.9 points per game on the road. Chicago's defense has been incredibly solid recently, allowing just 88 points per game over their last five games. They get to face a Trail Blazers team whose scoring average has dipped from 106.8 points per game down to a mere 97.2 points per game over their last five games. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Chicago when they are playing only their second game in the last five days and are up against an opponent playing their fourth game in the last five days. This system has an 82-42 (66%) record against the spread. When that team is a home favorite the system tightens up to 30-11 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-28-14 | Tennessee +2.5 v. Michigan | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 52 h 26 m | Show | |
4* Midwest Heavy Hitter Play of the Day on Tennessee +
The Volunteers are the most underrated team in the remaining NCAA Tournament field. Tennessee may come into this game with 12 losses on the season, but only one of those 12 losses came by a double-digit margin and it was on the road against now No. 1 in the country Florida. Tennessee has won eight of its last nine games, with the only loss during that stretch also coming against Florida on a neutral court in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee has faced an incredibly difficult schedule this season and that will have them well prepared for the Wolverines. Michigan is a team that has exceeded its talent level all year. Nine of the Wolverine's wins have come by five points or less. I expect them to struggle against Tennessee's underrated defense. The Volunteers have held opponents to a mere 61.4 points per game this season. When playing on the road that number barely increases, allowing just 63.2 points per game away from home. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have surrendered over 67 points per game against opponents with a scoring average that is much lower than Tennessee's. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Volunteers. You should play on teams like Tennessee when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that is committing less than 12 turnovers per game, after five consecutive games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system identifies teams with great ball control and excellent defensive skills that the oddsmakers are undervaluing. It has resulted in a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-27-14 | Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 100-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider of the Week on Portland Trail Blazers -
The Atlanta Hawks are playing in a very tough spot today. They have lost four consecutive games, and now the Hawks are tasked with facing a hungry Portland team in the second half of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Portland is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The Trailblazers have played in some close games recently and have caught a few bad breaks. I think they will be the hungry team in this matchup and easily pick up a big win over Atlanta. The Trail Blazers explosive offense gives them a big advantage over Atlanta. When playing on the road Portland averages an impressive 105.8 points per game. They are facing an Atlanta team whose offense is really struggling right now. The Hawks are 1-4 over their last five games and have scored just 97.4 points per game during that stretch. This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like Atlanta when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent and are coming off a road loss. This system is 236-144 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Portland that average 102 points per game or more against a team allowing over 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 194-126 (61%) against the spread. |