|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-13-18||Washington -3 v. Oregon||27-30||Loss||-115||28 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington -
I just don't see Washington losing to the Ducks, making this an easy play for me with the Huskies at such a low price. I think the fact that Oregon should have beat Stanford at home a couple weeks back (blew a 24-7 halftime lead) and are off a bye, is what's keeping this number lower than it should be.
By no means do I think the Ducks aren't any good, I just believe that Washington is a step above the entire Pac-12 conference. While they only beat Arizona St by 7, they were without a question the better team. They kept the Sun Devils in it with short fields and were still up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play. Also, don't be fooled by the mere 7-point win at UCLA. Washington simply took their foot off the gas after building a 24-7 halftime lead, which says a lot about how much they are looking forward to this game.
Justin Herbert might be the best quarterback not everyone knows about, but he's going to be up against an elite Huskies defense that specializes in defending the pass (17th, 174.7 ypg). It's going to be a lot easier on Washington quarterback Jake Browning, as he faces an Oregon secondary that ranks 89th vs the pass (238.2 ypg) and haven't exactly played a lot of great teams. They opened with Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose St, all at home.
With the offense figuring to be able to move the ball and a defense that is built to play well on the road, I just don't see the Ducks having enough in them to keep this within a touchdown. Take Washington!
|10-12-18||South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5||Top||25-24||Win||100||68 h 3 m||Show|
5* S. Florida/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +
The Golden Hurricane come into this game at 1-4 and have lost 4 straight, but are a much better team than their record would suggest. Tulsa has played an absolutely brutal schedule early, as 3 of their first 5 games have come on the road against Texas, Temple and Houston.
They covered last week as a 17-point dog at Houston, but could have easily won that game outright. The Golden Hurricane has a 26-17 lead in the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control. In their 14-point loss to Temple the week before, they outgained the Owls 403 to 300 and had a 32 to 16 edge in first downs. They also lost by just 7 on the road against a very good Texas team.
I'll absolutely take a shot here with Tulsa catching over a touchdown at home against what I think is a very overrated South Florida team. The Bulls are 5-0 and ranked No. 23 in the country, but have played a very easy schedule with their two toughest games coming against Power 5 bottom feeders Georgia Tech and Illinois.
If the Golden Hurricane can just simply cut down on their mistakes, they are going to have a great shot here of winning this game outright. Tulsa has 16 turnovers in 5 games and simply can't continue to get that unlucky with turnovers going forward.
Golden Hurricane are a dominant 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they allowed 40+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record. USF on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Tulsa!
|10-11-18||Georgia Southern v. Texas State +18||15-13||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +
There's no question that Georgia Southern is greatly improved over the team that went just 2-10 last year, but they simply overvalued here on the road against the Bobcats. The inflated line comes from the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS, while Texas State has only covered one game in their first 5.
Georgia Southern runs the option offense and while they have put up some big numbers, when you run the football as much as they do, it really limits the number of possessions. That makes the big number we are getting that much more valuable. As is the case with a lot of option teams, they aren't great at defending the pass and I look for Texas State to make enough big plays through the air to keep this one respectable.
Playing at home is also a huge advantage here for the Bobcats, as it's really tough to play on short rest away from home. Georgia Southern has also struggled on the road against bad teams, as they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Texas State!
|10-09-18||Appalachian State -9 v. Arkansas State||35-9||Win||100||24 h 18 m||Show|
3* App St/Ark St Sun Belt PLAY OF THE WEEK on App State -
I got no problem laying the big number here with the Mountaineers on the road. A lot of people will be drawn to Arkansas State as big home dog in this weekday matchup. The Red Wolves were picked to win the Sun Belt West by a lot of experts and senior quarterback Justice Hansen was a big reason why.
The problem here is that Hansen is going to be asked to do too much against a top notch Appalachian State defense, as I just don't see the Red Wolves stop unit being able to slow down this high-powered Mountaineers attack. App State put up 38 points on Penn State in their opener and have scored no fewer than 45 in 3 straight wins. They are scoring almost 10 ppg more than what their opponents are giving up and will be facing a Red Wolves defense that is allowing 29.2 ppg.
Look for the Mountaineers to be able to do whatever they want offensively, as they should be in great down and distances all game. App State has rushed for 780 yards in their last 2 games and are averaging 269 ypg and 6.5 yards/carry. Red Wolves are giving up 245 ypg and allowing 5.7 yards/carry against the run. Take Appalachian State!
|10-07-18||Wyoming +3.5 v. Hawaii||13-17||Loss||-115||59 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS BLOWOUT on Wyoming +
Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises early on. A Rainbow Warriors team that won just 3 games last year, has started out 5-1 with two outright wins as an underdog. However, both those underdog wins came in their first two games.
They have since gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and I think they are getting way too much respect here against a Wyoming team that is a lot more talented than their 2-3 record would suggest. Two of those three losses have come against Power 5 opponents and the other against a Boise State team that is one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country.
The biggest thing that has held the Cowboys back is their offense, but they will have no problem moving the ball here against this Hawaii defense. The Rainbow Warriors are giving up 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg, almost a touchdown more/game than what their opponents are averaging.
With a talented defense that is better than people realize because of the poor numbers from the tough slate, I think the Cowboys not only cover the spread but win this game outright. Take Wyoming!
|10-06-18||Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +6.5||45-23||Loss||-100||45 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Non-Conf PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +
I think this is an ideal spot to jump on the Hokies as a home dog, especially with this being a nationally televised (ABC) night game. It's hard enough to win at Lane Stadium on normal circumstances, it takes all you got to win here in a night game.
Notre Dame has looked great early on and are off that impressive 38-17 win over Stanford last week. However, that was at home, where the Irish have benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 and I know the Cardinal were ranked No. 7 going into that contest, but I've not been impressed at all with what I've seen from Stanford.
Notre Dame's only true road game was at Wake Forest, who are a good up and coming team, but have zero defense. This is without a doubt the biggest challenge to date for the Irish and outside of their no-show against Old Dominion, this team has looked impressive, especially on defense, where they are giving up just 84 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards/carry.
I think this line would be closer to a pick'em if it wasn't for the injury to Hokies quarterback Justin Jackson, but I don't think there's that big of a drop-off to backup Ryan Willis, who torched a good Duke defense last week for 332 yards and 3 scores. An outright win for the home team wouldn't surprise me at all. Take Virginia Tech!
|10-06-18||Washington -20 v. UCLA||Top||31-24||Loss||-110||58 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -
Washington has won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Auburn and have racked up 3 straight impressive wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona State and BYU. I think we are seeing a shorter line here because this looks like a flat spot off those three and an even bigger game at Oregon on deck.
It's certainly not an ideal spot, but I also don't think UCLA has the talent for it to matter. The biggest thing to keep in mind is Washington can't afford to overlook anyone, as one more loss and they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.
With how good the Huskies are defensively and how bad the Bruins are offensively, it's going to be really tough for UCLA to keep this within 3 touchdowns. Washington sits 10th in the country in total defense, giving up just 290 ypg. The Bruins are 102nd in rushing (135.8 ypg) and 109th in passing (176.3 ypg).
Look for the Huskies to have excellent field position throughout and I'm expecting a couple costly turnovers by UCLA to really open this thing up. Keep in mind the the Bruins defense is not good. They are 95th against the run (183 ypg) and 85th against the pass (238.5 ypg). They gave up 38 at home to Fresno St and I think Washington could score 50+ and you have to think this Huskies offense is itching for a big day offensively after all the good defenses they have played. Take Washington!
|10-06-18||Auburn -3 v. Mississippi State||9-23||Loss||-110||58 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn -
There was a ton of hype around this Mississippi State coming into the season and even after back-to-back ugly losses at Kentucky and at home to Florida, I still think the Bulldogs are getting way too much respect from the books.
Auburn made some noise with their impressive Week 1 win over Washington, but haven't exactly impressed since. They are just 1-3 ATS in the 4 games since beating the Huskies and lost outright at home to LSU as a 10-point favorite. I think it has the Tigers undervalued here against a Mississippi State team that is clearly struggling to adjust to the new offensive scheme under first year head coach Joe Moorehead.
While the Bulldogs defense has played well enough to win, I just don't see the offense being able to figure things out and do enough here against an elite Auburn defense to win this game, which is basically what they need to do for the Tigers not to cover.
Mississippi State is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating 275 or fewer total yards and the Tigers are now 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Take Auburn!
|10-06-18||UTSA +2 v. Rice||20-3||Win||100||54 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on UTSA +
I think the wrong team is favored here. There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team. The Owls only win this season came against Prairie View at home in the opener and they only won by 3 as a 22-point favorite.
I certainly don't think they deserve to have the line shaded their way because they are playing at home. Rice didn't win a home game last year and have covered just 2 of their last 6 at home and lost outright in the only game they were favored.
Rice's defense is atrocious, as they are giving up 42.4 ppg and 484 ypg. They are also allowing nearly 8 yards/play, which is basically a first down every time the other team snaps the ball. The offense isn't much better. They have zero threat of a passing game and that figures to be a big problem against a UTSA defense that has been much better against the run than the pass. The Roadrunners held Baylor to just 91 yards rushing and Texas State to 26.
I also like the fact that UTSA is coming into this one playing with confidence as they are riding a 2-game winning streak. Look for the Roadrunners defense to make more than enough stops for them to cash in a rare road win. Take UTSA!
|10-06-18||Iowa State +11 v. Oklahoma State||48-42||Win||100||54 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +
Oklahoma State is getting way too much respect here as a double-digit home favorite against the Cyclones.
A big reason for that is Iowa State just isn't getting a ton of respect after starting out 1-3, but it's easy to see why they have the record they do when they have played Iowa and TCU on the road and Oklahoma at home. Note that while they lost to both Oklahoma and TCU, they covered against both conference rivals, losing by just 10 as a 18.5-point dog against the Sooners and by just 3 as a 11.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs.
While Oklahoma State is off a 20-point win and cover over Kansas, they were fortunate to cover, scoring a garbage TD in the final minutes. We have already seen this team lose outright as a home favorite to Texas Tech and it wasn't pretty, as they got rolled 41-17.
The Red Raiders really made it tough on Oklahoma State's passing attack and this ISU defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents under 200 yards passing. I've liked what I've seen out of backup QB Zeb Noland and this Cyclones offense.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised here to see ISU win this game outright, as they matchup well on both sides of the ball. Take Iowa State!
|10-06-18||LSU v. Florida +3||19-27||Win||100||40 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida +
If this line doesn't scream take the Gators, I don't know what does. LSU is the No. 5 ranked team in the country and have gained the respect of the public with a 33-17 win over Miami, 22-21 win at Auburn and their recent 45-16 thrashing of Ole Miss.
Florida is ranked No. 22, but there's still a lot of question marks with this team. As good as their upset win at Mississippi State was last week, it's hard to ignore that 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky.
Simply put, the books are begging for you to take LSU here and the public has taken the bait with roughly 70% of the bets coming in on the Tigers.
I agree with the books, as I have Florida winning this game outright (will gladly take the field goal for insurance). I'm still not sold on this LSU offense being able to move the ball when they go up against a good defense. They are just 79th in the country in total offense at 396.6 ypg. The Gators are 19th in the country, giving up just 311 ypg and are holding opponents a full yard less than what their opponents are averaging.
Look for the Gators defense and a rowdy home crowd to the difference in this one. Take Florida!
|10-05-18||Georgia Tech -4 v. Louisville||66-31||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Ga Tech/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -
I love this spot for the Yellow Jackets and fully expect them to go on the road and put it on a Louisville team that looks lost without Lamar Jackson to carry them offensively. The Cardinals come in averaging a whopping 18.4 ppg and 312 ypg. A drastic drop-off from the 38.1 ppg and 545 ypg they averaged a season ago.
Sophomore quarterback Juwan Pass was suppose to step into the big shoes left by Jackson and keep the offense afloat, but it's been a massive struggle for the Cardinals new signal caller. He's thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 touchdowns and is barely completing more than 50% of his attempts.
Georgia Tech's defensive numbers don't look great on paper, but they have really only played bad in 2 games and those were against a couple of high-powered offenses in USF and Clemson. Louisville clearly isn't on the same level as those two teams and I look for the Yellow Jackets to make it very difficult on this Cardinals offense.
The other thing here is the Louisville defense has had just 5 days to regroup from that crushing home loss to FSU and try to prepare for this option offense of Georgia Tech. I just think that's a too tall a task for the Cardinals, who have never faced the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!
|10-04-18||Georgia State +17.5 v. Troy||20-37||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Georgia State
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|09-29-18||BYU v. Washington -16.5||7-35||Win||100||120 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Washington -
I got no problem here laying the big number with the Huskies at home against the Cougars. The betting public is all over BYU at this price, as that upset win at Wisconsin as a 23.5-point dog is still fresh in the minds of a lot of people.
The win over Wisconsin looks great on paper, but I'm not so sure the Badgers are as good as we expected. There's also little to be excited about with their road win at Arizona to open the season, as the Wildcats have looked horrible. The game that stands out to me is the home loss to Cal, who is no where close as talented as this Washington team.
I also don't think people are factoring in just how difficult it is to play well Husky Stadium, especially under the lights in a prime time game.
The even bigger key here is this is a statement game for Washington, who need to dominate the rest of the way to get into the playoffs with that loss they suffered early to Auburn.
I look for the defense of the Huskies to be what allows them to not just win but cover. BYU's offense comes in ranked 119th in the country at just 320.3 ypg. That's just not going to cut against this elite defense. Take Washington!
|09-29-18||Ohio State v. Penn State +4||Top||27-26||Win||100||60 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +
I absolutely love the value here with Penn State not only a home dog, but catching more than a field goal. There's arguably not a better atmosphere in the country than when Penn State plays at home in a prime time game in a "white out." Two years ago in this spot they upset No. 2 Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point dog. Last year they destroyed No. 19 Michigan 42-13 as a 9-point favorite. With that said, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance.
The concerns over Penn State's offense having to replace Saquon Barkley and offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead can be thrown out the window. The Nittany Lions are averaging over 500 ypg and come in 10th in the nation in rushing at 275 ypg, which well above the 170 ypg they averaged with Barkely last year. Senior quarterback Trace McSorely is the real deal and this could very well be his defining moment for the Heisman trophy.
As good as Ohio State's defense has looked and all the big names they have, I think Penn State will be able to put up points on the Buckeyes, especially with OSU's Nick Bosa sidelined. Keep in mind we saw a TCU offense that isn't nearly as talented as the Nittany Lions put up over 500 yards and 22 first downs against Ohio State a few weeks back.
The other thing to keep in mind, is the fact that this will be Ohio State's first true road game of the season. The only game away from home was that neutral site matchup with TCU and it felt like more of a home game with all the Buckeye fans in the stadium.
Nittany Lions are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall, as the books just keep undervaluing them. They are also 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Penn State!
|09-29-18||South Carolina +2 v. Kentucky||10-24||Loss||-105||60 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +
It's been quite the start to the season for Kentucky, who is 4-0 with wins over two ranked teams in Florida and Mississippi State. The win over Mississippi State really turned some heads and people are starting to buy into this team. South Carolina has started out 2-1, but had an ugly loss at home to Georgia that quieted the hype around this team.
The books are all but begging the public to take Kentucky here laying less than a field goal at home, but I'm going the other way. I think this Gamecocks team is a lot better than people think. While they might not be as talented as the top teams in the SEC, I certainly feel like they are the more talented team in this matchup.
I also think this is a tough spot for Kentucky. Not only are they off an emotional win over Mississippi State, but that victory got the respect they were so desperately wanting, as Kentucky went from unranked to No. 17 in the country. It's a lot easier playing with a chip on your shoulder than dealing with the pressure of being expected to win.
The other big thing for me is the matchup. Kentucky's offense is centered around running back Benny Snell, as they come in averaging 269 ypg on the ground to just 158 ypg through the air. They are running it twice as much as they are throwing it. I think that plays right into the strength of this South Carolina defense, which is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry against teams that are averaging 5.5.
The Gamecocks are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games played on Saturday, while Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, which includes an 0-7 mark as a home favorite. Take South Carolina!
|09-29-18||Old Dominion +7 v. East Carolina||35-37||Win||100||44 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Old Dominion +
This is just too good a price to pass up on with the Monarchs. Old Dominion pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 4, as they knocked Virginia Tech 49-35 as a massive 28-point home dog. I think the perception here is that the Monarchs win was a just a result of the Hokies not showing up to play. While that definitely wasn't the best effort from Va Tech, I think it's a mistake to not give some credit to Old Dominion.
The Monarchs put up 632 yards of total offense and it was a direct result of a quarterback change. Blake La Russa came off the bench and 30 of 49 for 495 yards and 4 scores. He lit a fire under this team they had been desperately missing in their 0-3 start, which saw them lose to the likes of Liberty, FIU and Charlotte. Keep in mind this is a team that brought back 16 starters and was suppose to be greatly improved.
As for East Carolina, they also have an impressive outright win as a big dog against an ACC team. The Pirates defeated UNC 41-19 as a 15-point dog. The thing is, that's not a very good Tar Heels team and it doesn't cover up the fact that they lost outright at home to FCS foe North Carolina A&T. They also had just 13 points against a bad USF defense. I just don't think ECU should be laying this big a number against a team that I feel is every bit as talented as them.
Pirates are also not a team that has had a lot of success covering the number under head coach Philip Montgomery. In fact, they are 8-19 ATS with him at head coach. They are also a miserable 3-13 ATS in the first month of the season. Take Old Dominion!
|09-28-18||Memphis -14 v. Tulane||24-40||Loss||-105||21 h 3 m||Show|
3* Friday Night NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -
I just don't think it's asking much for Memphis to win here by more than two touchdowns. Tulane's only win on the season came at home against FCS foe Nicholls State. While they did lost by just 6 at home to Wake Forest earlier in the season, they only managed 17 points against what has been an awful Demon Deacons defense.
They aren't going to keep this within two touchdowns without a huge offensive effort, as this Memphis offense is no joke. The Tigers come in average 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg. They are also averaging 8.7 yards/play, nearly picking up a first down every time they snap the ball. Memphis is built around their passing attack, but are also averaging 309 ypg on the ground.
The big key here is that Tulane is not a team that is built to play from behind with that option based offense that comes in averaging 41 rush attempts per game. Look for the Tigers to jump out to an early lead and win here by 20+ points.
Adding to this, we see that road teams off back-to-back wins by 14 or more points who are winning at least 60% of their games are 67-29 (70%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Memphis!
|09-22-18||Arkansas v. Auburn -29||3-34||Win||100||20 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime-Time ATS DESTROYER on Auburn -
I really like Auburn to bounce back in a big way from last week's gut-wrenching 22-21 home loss to LSU. That's definitely one they would have loved to win, but it doesn't ruin their season. Keep in mind they lost a heartbreaker to LSU last year and went on to win the SEC West. What it does do is put Auburn in playoff mode early in the year, as they essentially have to win out.
A lot of people might think Auburn will come out flat after that loss, but I expect the exact opposite. This a statement game for the Tigers and Arkansas is just the team for them to get back on track against. The Razorbacks have been a huge disappointment in year one under head coach Chad Morris. They blew a big 2nd half lead in a 27-34 defeat at Colorado St and followed that up by getting annihilated at home 44-17 by North Texas.
Look for Auburn's Jarrett Stidham to have a field day here against this Arkansas defense that is giving up 300 ypg through the air and allowing opposing QBs to complete 61% of their attempts. With a defense that is as good as any in the country, the Tigers should take control of this game early and turn this into a blowout by half. Take Auburn!
|09-22-18||Michigan State -4 v. Indiana||35-21||Win||100||48 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan State -
This is the perfect spot to buy-low on the Spartans. Michigan State came into the season ranked No. 11 in the country, but did have the start people were expecting. They needed a late score to knock off Utah State 38-31 as a 23.5-point favorite and then lost outright as a 4.5-point favorite at Arizona State.
Coming in those were viewed as two easy wins, but turns out both of those teams are a lot better than people think. You also have to factor in just how hard it is for a midwest team to travel out to the west coast and play well. A lot of Big Tens teams over the years have struggled on the road against the Pac-12 early in the year.
This is still a really good Michigan State team and while Indiana is no push-over, it's asking a lot of the Hoosiers to essentially keep this game within a field goal. I also think Indiana is getting a little too much love for that 28-point win over Ball State. Given how well the Cardinals played against Notre Dame on the road the previous week, that's viewed as a good win, but I think they got Ball State in a massive letdown spot.
Note that Indiana was 5-1 ATS as a favorite last year and just 1-5 ATS when listed as an underdog. This team looks good against inferior teams and hit has them overvalued when they take a step up in competition. I think that's what we are seeing here, as the Spartans should win here by double-digits. Take Michigan State!
|09-22-18||Louisiana Tech +22 v. LSU||Top||21-38||Win||100||70 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on LA Tech +
This is the absolute perfect spot to fade LSU. There were those that doubted the Tigers being for real after that Week 1 thrashing of Miami, but after winning on the road at Auburn this team is considered to be for real. I believe it has LSU way overvalued in a massive letdown spot against a quality team.
Ed Oregon knows how to get his team locked in and fired up in big games, but struggles to keep that focus and energy when they are the superior team. We saw it last year when they lost at home to Troy as a 20-point favorite.
The other thing is the offense hasn't exactly been great in the early going. I know they have played two good defenses in Miami and Auburn, but they had just 335 total yards against SE Louisiana. Louisiana Tech gave up just 25.4 ppg and 386 ypg last year and this year's team is expected to be even better on that side of the ball.
The offense has always been able to put up points under head coach Skip Holtz and this year will be no different with 8 starters back, including starting QB J'Mar Smith, who has 589 yards and 4 TD's in 2 games.
The other big key here is the fact that the Bulldogs had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to get ready for this game. Holz is also 30-15 ATS as a head coach when his team is a road dog with the average loss in this spot coming by just 7.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech!
|09-22-18||UNLV v. Arkansas State -7||20-27||Push||0||20 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State
The Red Wolves come into this one at 2-1 with the only loss coming at No. 1 Alabama. Last time out they won outright 29-20 as a road dog against a much-improved Tulsa team and I look for them to have no problem here covering the number at home against UNLV.
UNLV comes in averaging an impressive 39.7 ppg, but a lot of that has to do with the fact they played two cupcakes (UTEP & Prairie View) at home the last two times out. The fact that they played USC tough and covered the big number in Week 1 has them overvalued here.
The key here is the Rebels just don't play enough defense to be competitive on the road against a quality team like Arkansas State. UNLV is giving up a ridiculous 5.4 yards/carry on the ground, allowing 1.3 more yards/carry than what their opponents are averaging. That plays right into the strength of this Red Wolves' offense, which is averaging 4.8 yards/carry on the ground this season.
Red Wolves Blake Anderson is 13-2 ATS as a head coach vs teams that are giving up 4.75 or more yards/carry. Take Arkansas State!
|09-22-18||Charlotte +10 v. UMass||31-49||Loss||-110||79 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +
UMass has no business being this big of a favorite with the way this team is playing. The Minutemen are absolutely atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have allowed 63 points and 536 yards to FIU, 34 points and 485 yards to Georgia Southern and 55 points and 622 yards to BC (Eagles had 48 pts at the half).
They simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win games with that kind of production from their defense. Charlotte is not a great offensive team by any means, but they just had 373 yards and 28 points against a talented Old Dominion team. They are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board, giving them an excellent shot at keeping this close and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won the game outright.
It's also worth noting that UMass could be down it's top two quarterbacks. Andrew Ford and Ross Comis are both questionable to play. Michael Curtis would be the starter if they can't go and he was just 8 of 15 with 2 picks against FIU. Take Charlotte!
|09-22-18||Virginia Tech v. Old Dominion +29||35-49||Win||100||66 h 54 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Od Dominion +
It's been a complete disaster of a start for Old Dominion. Coming off a 5-7 campaign, where they won 3 of their last 4, a lot of people thought this team would easily make a bowl with 16 starters back. Instead the Monarchs have started 0-3 with losses at Liberty and Charlotte and a home defeat to FIU.
The thing is, they could easily be 2-1 right now, as they blew a 17-point lead against FIU and missed out on several scoring opportunities in a 3-point loss the 49ers. I think there ugly start combined with how good Virginia Tech has looked, has the Hokies getting way too much respect on the road.
That win over FSU doesn't look all that impressive any more and their other victory was against William & Mary. I'm not so sure this team is as good as people think. With a much bigger game on deck against Duke and the fact they are a 4-toucdhown favorite, I could see them looking past the Monarchs.
Old Dominion knows an outright upset is likely out of reach, but expect this team to play their hearts out at home in this in-state rivalry (schools only separated by 300 miles). That should be more than enough for the Monarchs, who do have some talent, to keep this within the number. Take Old Dominion!
|09-22-18||Boston College v. Purdue +7||13-30||Win||100||75 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Purdue +
I just think there's too much value here with Purdue getting a touchdown at home against Boston College. The Boilermakers come into this game sitting at 0-3, but just as easily could be 3-0. Their 3 losses have come by a combined 8-points.
We just saw Boston College get all they could handle on the road against Wake Forest in their last game and I think there's a good chance Purdue wins this game outright. This is basically a do-or-die point of the season for the Boilermakers. A win here and a bowl game is definitely still within reach. A loss and it doesn't look good.
As for the Eagles, they come in feeling really good about themselves after their 3-0 start and just got rewarded with a Top 25 ranking (No. 23). I think it will be really hard for BC to match the intensity that Purdue is going to be playing with.
The Boilermakers can put up points and while BC is known for their defense under Addazzio, they just gave up 512 yards to a Demon Deacons offense that scored just 23 against Tulane. WF rushed for 298 yards (5.0 yards/carry).
BC has a decent offense of their own, but note that Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm is 15-4 ATS when facing a team that's completing 58% or more of their pass attempts and 11-2 ATS vs teams that run for more than 4.75 yards/carry. Take Purdue!
|09-22-18||Nebraska +18 v. Michigan||10-56||Loss||-105||68 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska +
There was a ton of hype around the Cornhuskers this year, as they landed promising head coach Scott Frost, who had just guided UCF to a perfect 13-0 season. All of that buzz has subsided after Nebraska's 0-2 start. Losing at home to Colorado in the opener, a game they could have easily won, was acceptable, but a 19-24 loss to Troy has people completely off this team.
Michigan on the other hand is another team that people were really high on this year, as they landed Ole Miss quarter transfer Shea Patterson and many felt that was the one position holding this team back in previous years. The Wolverines were a 3-point favorite at Notre Dame and lost 17-24 and were completely outplayed. However, Michigan has rebounded with a 49-3 win over Western Michigan and 45-20 win over SMU to get back some respect.
I think it all adds up to a ton of value here with Nebraska as a 3-point dog. They lost to Troy without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez, but he's expected back in the lineup this week. I've also been really impressed with this Nebraska defense, which is only giving up 2.7 yards/rush. I also don't trust the Michigan offense.
The Wolverines edge in talent should have them win this game, but expect it to be a dogfight right until the end. Take Nebraska!
|09-22-18||Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5||56-27||Loss||-105||13 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +
Notre Dame is getting way too much respect here on the road against a good Wake Forest team. The Fighting Irish come into this game off to a perfect 3-0 start and are ranked No. 8 in the country. The thing is, Notre Dame has had to grind out wins in each 3 games and arguably should have lost last week at home to Vanderbilt.
I was really impressed with how well Wake Forest played in their last game at home against a very good Boston College team. This Demon Deacons offense is no joke, as they put up over 500 yards of offense against the Eagles.
Wake Forest has had ample amount of time to get ready for this game, as they last played on Sept. 13th. They not only have an edge in rest, but I think the homefield advantage is huge here, especially with this being Notre Dame's first game on the road in 2018.
The Demon Deacons more than held their own last year in South Bend, losing by just 11-points as a 14.5-point dog. I not only think they get the cover at home this time around, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest!
|09-21-18||Washington State v. USC -3.5||36-39||Loss||-110||44 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC -
This is the perfect buy-low spot on the Trojans. All the hype around USC being a playoff contender is completely out the window after the Trojans suffered back-to-back losses to fall to 1-2. The thing is, it was more of a result of a brutal schedule, as those two losses came at Stanford and at Texas. You have to keep in mind just how hard it is to win on the road against top tier teams and the fact that the Trojans are sending out a true freshman at quarterback.
J.T. Daniels has had his ups and downs, but despite his 1-3 TD-INT ratio, I think he has a really bright future at USC. This could very well be his breakout performance here at home against a Washington State team that is getting way too much respect after their 3-0 start.
The Cougars should be 3-0 right now, as they opened up the season against the likes of Wyoming, San Jose St and Eastern Washington. I look for Washington State to show their true colors in their first real road test of 2018. Keep in mind the Cougars only returned 10 starters from last year and had to replace their all-time leading passer in Luke Falk, as well as their leading rusher and top two receivers.
The other big thing here is the Trojans are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder, not only to avoid to their 3rd straight loss, but to get revenge from last year's upset loss at Washington State, when they were No. 5 in the country. Take USC!
|09-21-18||Penn State v. Illinois +29||63-24||Loss||-110||100 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois +
The Nittany Lions are getting way to much respect from the books in Friday's game at Illinois. The home teams have a huge advantage in these weekday games and I look for the Fighting Illini faithful to show their support in what is easily their biggest home on the schedule for 2018. Not to mention this is a much-improved Illinois team from last year's 2-10 squad.
The Fighting Illini are going to do everything in their power here to pull off the upset. While I don't see that happening, they got an excellent shot here of keeping this within 4 scores. Penn State has won big in each of their last two games, but have not started strong and let's not forget about that near upset at home in Week 1 against Appalachian State.
The even bigger key here is the spot for the Nittany Lions. It's going to be extremely hard for Penn State to give Illinois their full attention with arguably their biggest game of the season on deck next Saturday, as they will host Ohio State. A game that very well could decide the Big Ten East and the Nittany Lions' playoff hopes.
The goal here isn't to embarrass Illinois, but just make sure they get a win and avoid any injuries, so even if this does get out of hand early, the backdoor will be wide open. Take Illinois!
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple||17-31||Loss||-105||28 h 42 m||Show|
3* Tulsa/Temple AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +
Temple is getting way too much respect here against a Tulsa team that is a lot better than most people realize. The Golden Hurricane went just 2-10 last year and are off to a 1-2 start, but one of those losses was on the road to Texas, a game they only lost by 7-points as a 21-point underdog.
They let one get away at home this past Saturday against Arkansas State, while Temple avoided an 0-3 start with a shocking 35-14 win at Maryland. I think that's definitely got the number a lot higher than it should be.
The Owls were a desperate team going into that game against the Terps and I think Maryland came into that contest with a big head and just thought they were going to roll over Temple at home. Look for the Owls to come back down to earth in this one. Keep in mind they lost at home to both Villanova and Buffalo to start the season.
Tulsa has had no problem scoring under head coach Philip Montgomery. Even last year when they lost a ton on the offensive side of the ball they averaged nearly 30 ppg. The big problem has been the defense, but this year's stop unit looks to be much improved over previous versions. After facing a couple of really good offenses in Texas and Arkansas State, I look for them to show out a little bit here on defense against a very mediocre Temple offense.
Golden Hurricane are 12-3 ATS as a road dog under Montgomery, including a 10-2 ATS mark against conference opponents. Take Tulsa!
|09-15-18||Ohio State v. TCU +14||40-28||Win||100||1 h 22 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on TCU
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|09-15-18||USC v. Texas -3||14-37||Win||100||104 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Prime-Time (USC/TEXAS) NO-BRAINER on Texas -
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Longhorns at home. There was so much hype around this Texas team in year two under Tom Herman and that balloon was popped in Week 1 when they lost outright as a double-digit favorite at Maryland. They followed that up with a mere 28-21 win at home over Tulsa as a 21-point favorite.
Clearly there was a little too much hype on this team, but I also don't think it's time to write them off. They lost to Maryland last year and were a few breaks away from being a 10-win team. That's also a better Terrapins team than people realize. As for the 7-point win against Tulsa, they were up 21-0 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Maybe they started looking ahead to this game against USC?
A game you know they have had circled on the calendar. Not just because it's USC, but they want revenge from last year's crushing 24-27 overtime loss, where they really outplayed Sam Darnold and the Trojans. Darnold is gone and this USC team is down a notch or two from last year. We saw Stanford get their revenge against them last week, holding the Trojans to just 3-points and 332 yards. Freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels looked every bit a freshman on the road and I see no reason not to expect the same thing here. Take Texas!
|09-15-18||LSU +10.5 v. Auburn||22-21||Win||100||70 h 10 m||Show|
3* LSU/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU +
There's just not the same hype around this LSU program as there has been in years past. Not many people gave this team much of a shot against Miami in their opener and they came out with a chip on their shoulder and laid it on the Hurricanes in a 33-17 win. Auburn on the other hand is a team people were high on and the hype around this team only got stronger after they knocked off Washington.
I just think we are seeing an inflated number here and too much value with LSU to pass up. I know Auburn has a great defense, but so does LSU, which is no surprise given that Dave Aranda is their defensive coordinator. I know it came against a FCS school, but that same Miami offense LSU held to 17 points put up 77 in their next game, recording the largest margin of victory in school history.
I think this is going to turn out to be an old-school defensive battle that could either way in the 4th quarter. All we need is for LSU to lose by 10 or less and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they beat Auburn again (won 27-23 at home last year). LSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning home record and closed out last year going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take LSU!
|09-15-18||Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame -14||17-22||Loss||-110||114 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -
I got no problem laying the two touchdowns with the Fighting Irish here at home against the Commodores. Notre Dame is coming off a less than impressive 24-16 win over Ball State last week, a game in which the Fighting Irish were favored to win by 33.5-points. On the flip side of this, Vanderbilt has been impressive in their 2-0 start, taking on Middle Tenn 35-7 as a 3.5-point favorite and Nevada 41-10 as a 10-point favorite.
What people are overlooking with Notre Dame's sluggish showing agains the Cardinals, is that was a massive letdown spot after that massive Week 1 game at home against Michigan. At the same time, that Ball State team was way undervalued coming into this season. They went just 2-10 last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries and they had 16 starters back.
As for Vanderbilt, we have seen this story before with this team. Last year everyone was talking about how they were going to give Alabama a run for their money at home after a 3-0 start, but they got annihilated 59-0. A lot of people are putting Notre Dame on upset alert and you can bet Brian Kelly will use that to have his team 100% locked in for this one and that should be all it takes for them to win here in a blowout. Take Notre Dame!
|09-15-18||Oklahoma v. Iowa State +18||37-27||Win||100||119 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +
The public is going to be all over Oklahoma in this one and I believe the books have set the line here to where they feel ISU has a great shot at covering. The Sooners have looked good in blowout wins over FAU (63-14) and UCLA (49-21). The even bigger thing to why people are falling in love with this team, is Kyler Murray has played really well in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield.
Murray is a good player, but he struggled with his accuracy at Texas A&M. I think after facing a couple of mediocre defenses, both at home, he's going to find things a lot more difficult against a good ISU defense in what will be quite the atmosphere at Jack Trice Stadium. This Cyclones fan base is extremely loyal and this is the one home game they have been looking forward to since the schedule was released.
Keep in mind Oklahoma just lost their top running back in running back Rodney Anderson and this Cyclones defense just held a good Iowa rushing attack to just 105 yards.
Sure there's the revenge angle for Oklahoma after ISU won 38-31 in Norman last year. The Sooners may very well get their revenge, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Cyclones pulled off the upset and won outright. Take Iowa State!
|09-13-18||Boston College v. Wake Forest +6.5||41-34||Loss||-110||50 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +
There's just too much value here with the Demon Deacons catching almost a touchdown on their home field against their ACC Atlantic rivals in Boston College. The Eagles were expected to be much improved and have looked the part in blowout wins over UMass (55-21) and Holy Cross (62-14).
Wake Forest is another team people were high on coming into the year, as Dave Clawson has really done a nice job of turning the program around. However, I think a lot of people jumped off the bandwagon when projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton was suspended for the first 3 games. I think the book knew the public would be on BC and inflated the line knowing so.
This line suggest that BC would be a double-digit favorite over Wake on a neutral field and I'm just not buying it. The loss of Hilton has been eased by the emergence of true freshman Sam Hartman, who has completed 61.5% of his attempts for nearly 8 yards a pop. He's also proven a decent threat on the ground, rushing for 128 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and a score in 2 games.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Wake Forest won this game outright. The Demon Deacons are 22-12 ATS as an underdog under Clawson, 17-7 ATS under Clawson at home and 14-3 under Clawson when coming off a win by 21 or more points. Take Wake Forest!
|09-08-18||Rice +18 v. Hawaii||29-43||Win||100||65 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Rice +
Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises in the early goings of 2018. The Rainbow Warriors went on the road in Week Zero and took out Colorado State 43-34 as a 17-point dog. They then came back and knocked off Navy 59-41 as a 13.5-point dog. Two outright wins as a double-digit dogs will definitely get the attention of the books and now we see Hawaii laying 3 scores against Rice at home.
I think this is a huge overreaction and it's a lot different going into the fight as the heavy favorite compared to the underdog. A lot of people will just expect them to keep it going against a Rice team went 1-11 last year, especially after the Owns barely snuck by Priarie View in their opener 31-28 and lost at home to Houston 27-45.
I was actually really impressed with how well Rice played against a good Houston team. The Owls were in that game late and actually led 27-17 midway through the 3rd quarter. They put up 439 yards against a talented Houston defense. It looks like they have found something in Vandy grad transfer Shawn Stankavage, who was 20 of 31 for 204 yards and 3 scores against the Cougars.
Hawaii is going to put up points with that air-raid offense, but they are also going to give up a lot of points. They allowed 34 to Colorado State and 41 to Navy. Note that Colorado State managed just 13 points and 284 total yards in their next game against Colorado. If the Warriors aren't careful, they could go from winning as a double-digit dog to losing as a double-digit favorite. Take Rice!
|09-08-18||Michigan State v. Arizona State +7||13-16||Win||100||95 h 12 m||Show|
4* Prime-Time (ESPN) GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +
A lot of people are going to be quick to make excuses for Michigan State and their sloppy showing in their home opener against Utah State, where they were fortunate to walk away with a 38-31 win as a massive 23.5-point favorite. They will say the Spartans are slow-starters and didn't give the Aggies their full attention with this big game on deck. I'm not buying it.
I expect another sloppy showing from Michigan State. People don't realize how hard it is for these midwest teams to travel out west and the Big Ten has had more than their fair share of troubles when having to play on the road against the Pac-12.
You also can't ignore how good the Sun Devils looked in their opener against UTSA, which was also the debut for new head coach Herm Edwards. Not many people were high on Arizona State going into this season and I think that lack of respect has this team playing hungry and flying way under the radar. They demolished the Roadrunners 49-7, while outgaining UTSA by 283 yards. The defense allowed a mere 2 rushing yards on 34 attempts and forced 3 turnovers.
If they can slow down Michigan State's running game, which struggled to get going against Utah St, they not only will cover this spread, but they will win the game outright. Take Arizona State!
|09-08-18||UTEP +24 v. UNLV||Top||24-52||Loss||-111||103 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +
After going on the road and giving USC a scare in their opener, were within 5 at the half and covered the 24.5-point spread, the public is going to be all over the Rebels against a UTEP team that went 0-12 last year and started out 2018 with an ugly 30-10 loss at home to Northern Arizona.
What they won't factor in is how hard it's going to be for UNLV to avoid a letdown after that game against the Trojans. All they have been thinking about for months was that game with USC to open the season. It only makes it that much harder to bounce back when you feel like you had a shot at winning the game. Not to mention, it how difficult it has to be to take this UTEP team seriously given how bad they have been.
We got numbers to back this theory up. UNLV is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when they are coming off a cover where they lost as an underdog. I'm not saying the Rebels won't win this game, but it's going to be a lot closer than everyone is expecting. Take UNLV!
|09-08-18||Fresno State +3 v. Minnesota||14-21||Loss||-115||60 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Fresno State +
I expect the public to be all over Minnesota here, as they won't be able to help themselves but take a Big Ten team laying less than a field goal at home against a team from the MWC. Especially after the Gophers annihilated New Mexico State 48-10 as a 22.5-point favorite this past Saturday.
That performance against the Aggies is nothing to be excited about. New Mexico State is way down this year. They were missing a ton of starters on defense and that's the same offense that managed 135 total yards against Wyoming in 'Week Zero.' That same Wyoming defense gave up 41 points to a Washington State that only had 4 starters back on offense.
The other thing that stands out to me is the play of Gophers new true freshman quarterback Zack Annexstad. He threw for 220 yards and 2 scores, but was a mere 16 of 33 passing. Luckily Minnesota had their way on the ground (295 yards on 47 attempts).
The thing is, they aren't going to be able to run all over Fresno State. The Bulldogs have 7 starters back from a defense that only gave up 113 rushing yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry last year. Annexstad and the Gophers offense is going to be forced into a lot more passing situations and that's going to be a problem.
The Bulldogs put up 79 points in their opener against Idaho and should have one of their better offenses in recent memory with 8 starters back. I think they do more than enough here to get a win on the road against Minnesota.
Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-confernce games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Take Fresno State!
|09-08-18||Memphis -6.5 v. Navy||21-22||Loss||-110||88 h 58 m||Show|
4* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -
I don't see the Tigers having any problem here winning by at least double-digits on the road against Navy. I think a lot of people are sleeping on this Memphis team due to the fact that they lost a really good quarterback in Riley Ferguson, but look out for junior Brady White, who is a grad transfer from Arizona State (Memphis head coach Mike Norvell was the OC when White first started out with ASU).
I know it came against Mercer, but it's hard to ignore his stat line in the opener. White was 22 of 28 for 358 yards and 5 scores. The Tigers also rushed for 324 yards. Keep in mind this is an offense that averaged 45.5 ppg and 532 ypg last year and 7 starters back.
The Midshipmen had no answer for Hawaii's high-flying offense in their opener, as the Rainbow Warriors put up 59 in an 18-point win as a 13.5-point dog. Hawaii's Cole McDonald completed 30 of 41 for 428 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Memphis has 8 starters back on defense in what is their 3rd season under defensive coordinator Chris Ball. They should be greatly improved on that side of the ball and they looked sharp in the opener, holding Mercer to just 174 total yards and 8 first downs. I think they are going to be ready for that triple-option and Navy is not a team that can play from behind. Take Memphis!
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +22.5||42-12||Loss||-110||60 h 19 m||Show|
3* TCU/SMU Friday Night ATS DESTROYER on SMU +
Analysis will be posted shortly
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||24-3||Win||100||36 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Labor Day ATS NO-BRAINER on Va Tech +
Florida State is getting way too much respect here against the Hokies. The Seminoles took a turn for the worse in 2017, as they managed to go just 7-6 and were lucky to finish with a winning record after a dreadful 3-6 start. Most are just assuming that FSU will bounce back and return to elite status, but I don't think that's going to be the case.
Not to take anything away from Willie Taggart, but he's not on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. In fact, Taggart has a losing record at 47-50 over 8 seasons as a head coach. With a new head coach comes scheme changes and the players that are left over don't always fit the new systems.
I just have a lot more trust in Virginia Tech coming out and playing well. The Hokies will be in year 3 under head coach Justin Fuente and he backed up his 10-4 debut season with a 9-4 record in 2017. Va Tech's offense should be explosive with 7 starters back , including talented sophomore quarterback Joshua Jackson.
The Hokies do lose a lot defensively, but I don't think the drop off will be as big as some are expecting. FSU loses just as much defensively and I have a lot more confidence in Virginia Tech's offense being able to stay on the field and finish off drives with touchdowns. Take Virginia Tech!
|09-02-18||Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5||Top||17-33||Win||100||372 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU +
I have LSU winning this game outright, making this a no-brainer with the Tigers getting 3.5-points. Miami is coming off a solid season in which they started out 10-0, but they lost their last 3 all by double-digits. There's definitely reason to get excited about the direction of the program, but I think people are getting a little too carried away.
LSU is coming off a 9-4 season and yet no one is talking about them in the SEC. The Tigers aren't exactly use to flying under the radar, but I think that makes them a dangerous team. I also don't think you can overlook how good the SEC has looked as a whole in Week 1. The only team to lose their opener was Tennessee, which is a complete mess right now. Auburn defeated No. 6 Washington and Alabama rolled Louisville 51-14 in the other marquee matchup.
I look for the Tigers defense to be the difference in this one, as there are few better than LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, the Tigers have the potential to take control of this game early and win here in convincing fashion. Either way, I like them to keep it within a field goal. Take LSU!
|09-01-18||Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10||Top||7-33||Win||100||414 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -
Iowa's not a program that gets a ton of respect nationally, which is why they are a profitable 124-108 ATS since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach. The Hawkeyes are getting no love once again in 2018 and I think they are showing tremendous value here as a mere 10-point favorite at home against a team from the MAC.
Not to take anything away from Northern Illinois, which has quite the track record over the last decade, but they are just 21-18 over the last 3 seasons. Outlets are calling for them to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the conference being down a little.
This reminds me a lot of last year when Iowa opened against Wyoming. A lot of people were on the Cowboys as a 12-point dog, but the Hawkeyes easily covered in a 24-3 victory.
The Hawkeyes are known for fielding a team that can run the football and are always strong on the defensive side of the ball. That won't change in 2018, but I expect a much more balanced offensive attack behind one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Stanley, who will be throwing to arguably the best tight end in college football in Noah Fantz (projected 1st round pick).
While Iowa does lose their top 3 linebackers, they are very strong up front on the defensive line and Northern Illinois is a team that doesn't have a great passing attack. I just don't see the Huskies keeping pace as I have the Hawkeyes winning here by 20+ points. Take Iowa -10!
|09-01-18||West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5||40-14||Loss||-110||18 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee +
To no surprise, the public is all over West Virginia in this one. There's a ton of hype around the Mountaineers due to the fact that they bring back one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Will Grier. Not to mention, nobody wants anything to do with the Volunteers, who are coming off a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2017 and are undergoing a coaching change. All of this has Tennessee extremely undervalued and I'll gladly take the points with the Vols in this one.
What a lot of people are overlooking with Tennessee is just how much talent they have on their roster. Butch Jones might not have been a great head coach, but the guy could recruit. That's why there's been so much hype around this team the past few seasons.
It was laughable how the coaching search went, but in the end I like who they got. Jeremy Pruitt was the defensive coordinator at Alabama the past two years and he's going to change the culture in Knoxville. He's going to have his team fired up for this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright.
A big reason for that is I think they can go score for score with Grier and that West Virginia offense, as the Mountaineers only have 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 31.5 ppg. Not to mention they lose arguably their two best players. Take Tennessee!
|08-30-18||Northwestern +3 v. Purdue||31-27||Win||100||96 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Limit PLAY OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +
The only real concern here with Northwestern is the health of starting quarterback Clayton Thorson, who is listed as questionable to play. While I can't guarantee he will play, I would absolutely shocked if Thorson wasn't out their for the Wildcats first series. He's been practicing in full for quite some time and the reports out of fall camp that he looks even better than he did before the injury.
I just don't see anyway that Northwestern loses this game with him on the field. Purdue has just 4 starters back on defense and that stop unit was the main reason they went 7-5 last year. While I don't think they are going to be as bad as some think, they aren't going to be as good as last year's squad and will struggle against talented teams like the Wildcats.
On the flip side of this, Northwestern has 7 staters back from a defense that held Purdue to just 13 points last year. I could see the Boilmakers putting up a few more points, but not near enough to give them a chance to win this game.
It's also worth noting that the Wildcats come into this game having covered 8 of their last 9 conference games, are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten road games and have covered 6 of the last 7 meetings with Purdue. Take Northwestern!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia +5||Top||26-23||Win||100||146 h 31 m||Show|
5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia +
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me.
Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good.
I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia!
|01-01-18||Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson||Top||24-6||Win||100||298 h 30 m||Show|
5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -
I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game.
A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win.
There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama!
|01-01-18||Central Florida +10 v. Auburn||34-27||Win||100||290 h 10 m||Show|
4* Peach Bowl No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Florida +
I like the value here with UCF catching double-digits against Auburn. The Knights finished the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record and improved to 13-0 with a win over Memphis in the AAC title game. I expect them to be extremely motivated here to finish this off with one last week to get to 14-0 against a SEC team.
A big key here is that while UCF head coach Scott Frost has accepted the job at Nebraska, he's showing his commitment to his players by sticking with the team through the bowl game. I expect his players to return the favor and give it their all in this one.
Auburn is hands down the better team, but you can't just look at that when it comes to bowl season. You have to factor in motivation and I just don't see how the Tigers are going to get up for this contest. Auburn went on a remarkable run to end the season, which included wins over Georgia and Alabama in their final 3 games to make the SEC title game. The Tigers couldn't finish off the job, losing in a rematch to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which was a play-in for the playoffs. No disrespect to UCF or the Peach Bowl, but this doesn't come close to comparing to being in the playoffs and I just don't see Auburn being locked in for this one. Take Central Florida!
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -8||26-19||Loss||-107||10 h 16 m||Show|
4* Outback Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -
I like the value here with the Wolverines laying single digits against the Gamecocks in Monday's Outback Bowl. On paper these two teams look very similar, as both are a bit limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. With that said, I think Michigan is hands down the better side on both sides of the ball, plus they have a big edge here in coaching with Jim Harbaugh.
The biggest thing here for me is I just don't think the Gamecocks are going to be able to score enough to keep this one competitive. Michigan finished the year 3rd in the country, allowing just 268.1 ypg and were great against both the run and the pass. South Carolina had just the 109th ranked offense in the country and when they went up against top notch defense they struggled to produce. The Gamecocks scored just 10 points in their two matchups against Georgia and Clemson, two very similar teams in terms of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Take Michigan!
|12-29-17||USC v. Ohio State -7||Top||7-24||Win||100||226 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -
I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention.
Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire.
For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State!
|12-28-17||Virginia v. Navy +1||7-49||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
4* Military Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on Navy +
I like the value here with the Midshipmen at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia in the Military Bowl. Navy is simply not getting enough respect here, especially given that this game is being played on their home field, which is a big advantage in these bowl games.
The perception is that these triple-option teams are at a disadvantage in bowl games, as their opponents have ample amounts of time to prepare for their unique offensive attack. What gets overlooked is just how much the opponents hate preparing and playing these triple-option attacks. It's also worth pointing out that Navy has been a covering machine of late in bowl games, as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. That includes a trip to this same bowl in 2015, where they knocked off Pitt 44-28 as a mere 3-point favorite.
Virginia surprised a lot of people by getting to a bowl game this year, as they were coming off a 2-10 season in 2016 and picked by many to finish in the basement of the ACC. While they had some nice wins, including a 42-23 victory over Boise State, for the most part they struggled against the better teams they faced and it's also important to note they went just 1-5 over their final 6 games.
This is also not a great matchup for Virginia. While the Cavaliers finished a respectable 36th in total defense, giving up just 357.9 ypg, they were just 82nd in the country at stopping the run, allowing 178.3 ypg. I just don't see them stopping this Midshipmen rushing attack, that rushed for an average of 343 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. Virginia also had their struggles offensively, as they were 126th in rushing (98.8 ypg). If they don't throw it well, their defense is going to be on the field the entire game and that's just not a recipe for success against the Midshipmen. Take Navy!
|12-27-17||Boston College v. Iowa -2.5||20-27||Win||100||32 h 10 m||Show|
4* Pinstripe Bowl ATS NO BRAINER on Iowa -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Eagles. Iowa has had a really rough stretch in bowl games, as they have lost 5 straight postseason games after starting out 6-3 under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
I believe a big reason for the Hawkeyes recent struggles is they have consistently been picked for bigger bowl games because of how well their fans travel and it's forced them to play a much tougher opponent than them. Note that all 5 losses have come with Iowa being the underdog, as their last 5 opponents in bowl games have been Florida, Stanford, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
No disrespect to Boston College, but this is finally an opponent that is on the Hawkeyes level and one I believe that Iowa matches up very well against. The Eagles are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensively, but that plays right into the strength of the Iowa defense.
At the same time, the Hawkeyes are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensive and BC finished the year ranked 101st in the country vs the run, giving up 198.4 ypg, while giving up 5.0 yards/carry (first time since 2012 they have allowed more than 4.0 yards/carry). The Hawkeyes should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should be more than enough for them to win here by at least a field goal. Take Iowa!
|12-27-17||Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State||Top||13-42||Loss||-110||75 h 33 m||Show|
5* Independence Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss +
I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Eagles catching a big number against the Seminoles in the Independence Bowl on Wednesday. This is simply too many points given the circumstances for Florida State, which watched head coach Jimbo Fisher jump ship for Texas A&M at the end of the season. I just don't see the Seminoles being motivated for this contest, especially not to the point where they win in blowout fashion.
All you have to do is look at the injury report for FSU to see how little interest there is in playing this game, as there's a laundry list of players who are questionable and several others, including star defensive player Derwin James that aren't going to take the field. The defense that kept them competitive is simply missing too many players and when you add in the lack of motivation, I think Southern Miss is going to move the ball with ease here.
The other big key here is this Seminoles offense is not very good. Sure they put up 42 in their final game against ULM, but the Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. FSU finished 83rd in rushing (150.8 ypg) and 92nd in passing (192.8 ypg). Southern Miss comes in with one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Golden Eagles were 28th against the run (132.2 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (189.8 ypg). Not only do I think they can keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Southern Miss!
|12-26-17||Northern Illinois v. Duke -5.5||14-36||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
3* Quick Lane Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Duke -
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Devils laying less than a touchdown against Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl. Duke got off to a red-hot 4-0 start to the season, which included a 41-17 blowout win over Northwestern. They would then proceed to lose 6 straight and sitting at 4-6 needed to win their final 2 just to become bowl eligible. They did just that. Knocking off Georgia Tech 43-20 at home and closing out the year with a 31-23 win at Wake Forest.
I like the Blue Devil's chances of carrying over that momentum here in their bowl game against the Huskies. While Northern Illinois posted an 8-4 record, I just don't think this is that good of a team. Sure they knocked off Nebraska in non-confernece, but that turned out to be a pretty bad Cornhuskers team. The MAC was also way down this year and it's shown in bowl play so far with conference champ, Toledo, losing 34-0 to Appalachian State. East Division winner Akron lost 50-3 to FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl and Central Michigan, who posted a 6-2 mark in MAC play lost 37-14 to Wyoming in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
On paper these look like to very similar teams with sub-par offenses and really good defenses, but when you factor in the much tougher strength of schedule for Duke it's clear that the Blue Devils are the superior side. Take Duke!
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||42-35||Loss||-110||16 h 38 m||Show|
4* Armed Forces Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -
I like the value here with the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown against the Black Knights in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday. I think this is a perfect matchup for San Diego State, as they are very familiar with how to stop the triple-option attack given they play Air Force in the MWC. The Aztecs have owned these one-dimensional offenses, posting a 13-2 record straight up and a 12-3 mark against the spread.
This year shouldn't be any different, as San Diego State is once again stout on the defensive side of the ball. The Aztecs ranked 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 110.4 ypg and only allowed 3.5 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, San Diego State is also a team that really likes to run the football, as they were 11th in rushing (252.3 ypg) compared to just 118th in passing (157.9 ypg). Big key here is they at least offer a threat of throwing, plus they will be facing an Army defense that was just 68th vs the run, allowing 166.1 ypg. Take San Diego State!
|12-21-17||Temple -7 v. Florida International||Top||28-3||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
5* Gasparilla Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -
I like the value here with the Owls laying a touchdown against the Golden Panthers in the Gasparilla Bowl. FIU had a great turnaround in their first season under Butch Davis, going 8-4 after finishing at 4-8 last year, but I also think it has the Owls getting too much respect here. A big reason for the turnaround with FIU is they played a couple of cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State in non-conference play and C-USA was way down this year outside of FAU, who they lost to by 28 points.
Temple only went 6-6 in the first year under new head coach Geoff Collins, but were a much better team down the stretch, as they closed out the year winning 3 of their last 4, which included a 34-26 win over Navy and 43-22 victory at Tulsa in the regular-season finale. A big reason this team got things going is Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He threw for over 200 yards in each of his 5 starts and figures to be in store for a big game here against a FIU defense that ranked 94th in the country against the pass, giving up 242.8 ypg. The Panthers also were 79th against the run (173.8 ypg), so the Owls should also have balance with their offensive attack. I just don't see FIU being able to keep pace in this one. Give me Temple -7!
|12-16-17||Oregon -7 v. Boise State||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||56 h 8 m||Show|
5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl Top Play on Oregon -
A lot of people are taking Boise State here and I think a big reason for that is fact that Oregon head coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State. There's also concerns if star running back Royce Freeman will play. I believe it's created some great line value here with the Ducks, who I think are the far superior team.
Oregon replaced Taggart with offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal, so there's no going to be no changes to how they run their offense. They also still have defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt around, so no changes on defense. Not having Taggart isn't going to hurt this team. In fact, I think it adds some incentive for them to play well for their new head coach.
As far as Freeman is concerned, it would be great if he played, but at the same time I don't think they will miss him. Backup Kani Benoit was arguably more productive, though he only had 573 yards to Freeman's 1,475. Benoit has only got 80 carries, where Freeman has 244. Benoit actually averages 1.2 more yards/carry and at his current pace (10) would have close to 30 TD's if he produced the same over the same number of carries as Freeman.
On top of that, it's sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert who is the most important offensive player for Oregon. This team averaged right around 50 ppg with him in the lineup and around 15 without him and that was over a 5-game stretch. Boise St has a solid defense, but it hasn't seen anything like the speed of the Ducks and I think they struggle to slow this high-powered offense down.
As for the Broncos offense, I'm also not all that impressed with what I've seen and they could be without their best back in Alexander Mattison, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Either way I don't see Boise State keeping pace here. Take Oregon!
|12-02-17||Fresno State +9.5 v. Boise State||14-17||Win||100||58 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Fresno +
I think the books are taking full advantage of the public's love for Boise State and thus have created some great value here on Fresno State. The Bulldogs beat the Broncos last week 28-17 as 7-point home dog, but most just throw that game away because both teams had nothing to gain, as each had already secured their division titles and knew they would be facing each other again this Saturday.
I also think people are slow to give this Fresno State any love because of how big bad they have been. The Bulldogs went just 1-11 last year and weren't expected to be any good. The key for me is I don't think this a fluke at all. Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford went 82-57 in 11 seasons with the Golden Bears and is why this team is where it is. He's going to have a great game plan here and I love that he gets to beat into his players head all week that no one thinks they are any good.
You also have to give props to defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer, who has completely transformed the Bulldogs on that side of the ball. Fresno State finished the year 12th in the country, allowing just 17.3 ppg and 16th in total defense, giving up just 317 ypg. That's with returning just 6 starters from a defense that allowed 30.9 ppg and 415 ypg. They also went from allowing an average of 248 rushing yards/game to giving up just 117.3 ypg. I think they have more than offense here to win this one outright. Take Fresno State!
|12-02-17||Georgia +3 v. Auburn||Top||28-7||Win||100||54 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +
It wasn't pretty for the Bulldogs in the first meeting against the Tigers. Georgia went into Auburn sitting at 9-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, scoring on their first drive, but it was all downhill from there. Auburn led 16-7 at the half and pushed lead up to 40-10 midway through the 4th quarter.
I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a great team, I just think they caught Georgia by surprise in that game earlier this season. I also think that was a Bulldogs team that was starting to get a little too cocky with how they were dominating teams. Georgia simply didn't have the same fire that Auburn did, who at that time was already in win or their season is over mode. I think we get a much different looking Bulldogs team here and I like their chances of winning this game outright.
Another thing here is I just think Auburn could be running on fumes here. They have been in do or die mode since losing to LSU back in the middle of December. The biggest of them all was last week against rival Alabama, which secured their spot in the SEC title game. This will be their 3rd game against a Top 10 team in their last 4 games, while Georgia hasn't been tested since that loss to Auburn. I think the Tigers will be out of gas. Take Georgia!
|12-02-17||TCU +7.5 v. Oklahoma||17-41||Loss||-115||51 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on TCU +
I know the Sooners cruised to a 38-20 win over TCU just a few weeks ago (Nov. 11th), but I think the Horned Frogs are going to put up a much better fight and could even win this game outright. In that first meeting the game was at Oklahoma, which has a huge home field edge. This game will be played at the home of the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
It was also a game where the Sooners struck early and had TCU reeling. Oklahoma was up 24-7 in the first 20 minutes of the game and had a 38-14 edge at the half. Some will say the Sooners called off the dogs in the second half, but I don't think that was the case. A 24-point lead against a good team in the Big 12 is not something to fill safe about in the 3rd quarter.
I believe Gary Patterson and his staff made some big adjustments and will be something they can carry over to this second meeting. Patterson is a great coach and brilliant defensive mind. I expect this TCU defense to make life miserable for Baker Mayfield and the Sooners offense. At the same time, I think we see a better game plan here from the Horned Frogs offense and this Oklahoma defense isn't all that good. Take TCU!
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -4||28-31||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
3* Pac-12 Championship ATS ANNIHILATOR on USC -
I like the value here with USC laying less than a touchdown in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game against rival Stanford. The Trojans whooped up on the Cardinal early on in the regular-season, beating the Cardinal 58-34 and it was every bit a blowout as the final score would suggest. USC put up 623 yards while holding Stanford to just 342, as they outgained the Cardinal by a ridiculous 281 yards.
I think the perception here is that the Cardinal are a much better team, as they have closed out the season winning 8 of their last 9, including wins over No. 9 Washington and No. 8 Notre Dame in their last 3 games. I'm just not buying them being improved enough to be all that competitive with the Trojans. Like they did a year ago, USC has saved their best football for the end of the year and are clearly motivated to win the Pac-12 title. Take USC!
|11-25-17||Idaho v. New Mexico State -8||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||65 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAAF Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State -
I like the value here with the Aggies laying single-digits at home against the Vandals. While Idaho is sitting at 3-7 and out of the bowl picture, New Mexico State is 4-6 and still can reach bowl eligibility with a win here and victory over Georgia State in their finale next week. The key here is the Aggies are a much better team than their 2-4 conference mark would suggest, as they could very easily be 6-0. All 4 losses have come by 6-points or less, including mere 3-point losses against Sun Belt powers Appalachian State and Troy.
Another key here is that Idaho just recently lost starting quarterback Matt Linehan. In the first game without him against Coastal Carolina last week, the Vandals managed just 7-points, 277 total yards and 14 first downs. That's just too big a loss for this team to overcome, as they aren't any good at running the ball. Idaho is 104th in the country, averaging just 130.7 ypg on the ground.
There is a chance New Mexico State could be without starting quarterback Tyler Rodgers, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. I think he plays, but even if he doesn't the Aggies should be able to generate more than enough offense to win here by double-digits. Take New Mexico State!
|11-25-17||North Texas -10 v. Rice||30-14||Win||100||63 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -
This has been a breakout season for the Mean Green, who have already secured the C-USA West title and will play in next week's C-USA championship game. Typically this isn't a spot where I would take a team that really has nothing to play for, but I don't think the Mean Green are going to just lay down with a chance to reach double-digit wins this year. On top of that, North Texas could play their "C" game and still beat Rice by more than two touchdowns.
The Owls are 1-10 and have lost 9 straight since beating UTEP way back in Week 2 of the season. Keep in mind that UTEP is awful, as the Miners are 0-11 on the season. I just don't see Rice has enough talent to keep this close even if they were to treat this like their bowl game. I look for North Texas to try and get as big a lead as possible early on and coast to a comfortable win on Saturday.
Road favorites who have a winning record and have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 are 95-49 (66%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record over the last 10 seasons. Take North Texas!
|11-25-17||East Carolina +28.5 v. Memphis||13-70||Loss||-105||76 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SHOCKER on East Carolina +
I like the value here with the Pirates catching a huge number against the Tigers on Saturday. Memphis has already locked up a spot in the AAC title game, as they will take on the winner of the UCF/USF game on Friday next week. I just don't see the Tigers having any interest in running up the score here on East Carolina. I look for them to be extra cautious with their starters and to keep the game plan as vanilla as possible. The only priority here is to get a win without getting anyone hurt and not exposing any more of the playbook than they need to.
As for East Carolina, I look for them to treat this as their bowl game, as no matter the outcome their season comes to an end when this one is over. The Pirates showed they aren't going to just lay down, as they just defeated Cincinnati 48-20 at home. The big key here is the Pirates have an offense that can put points on the board, so even if things get ugly early, the backdoor will be wide open for them in the 2nd half.
It's also worth noting that last time out the Tigers put up 66 points in their win over SMU. Any time Memphis has come off a big offensive outburst like that, they have been a great fade, as the Tigers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 50 or more points. They are also just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. Take East Carolina!
|11-25-17||Georgia v. Georgia Tech +11||38-7||Loss||-104||3 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Georgia Tech +
I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a big home dog against in-state rival Georgia. There's nothing more that Georgia Tech would rather do than play a part in potentially keeping the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. I think they have what it takes to not only keep it close, but pull off the upset. The Yellow Jackets triple-option will be tough for even this great Georgia defense to stop and most importantly I think Georgia Tech has the talent on defense to slow down that high-powered Bulldogs rushing attack. Don't be worried about the Yellow Jackets ugly loss to Duke, as they were looking ahead to this game and are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after a loss by 21 or more points. Take Georgia Tech +11!
|11-24-17||Missouri v. Arkansas +11||Top||48-45||Win||100||55 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +
I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a double-digit dog at home against the Tigers. Missouri has caught fire here in the 2nd half of the season and have won 5 straight and covered their last 7. I think they are way overvalued here because of it. While the wins have come by large margins they have also come against bad teams.
Arkansas has had a down year, but there's still a lot of fight in this team and they showed it last week in their near upset at home over Mississippi State. They are going to want to go out with a fight on senior day and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won outright. Razorbacks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home when they come in having failed 2 of their last 3, 15-6 in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss.
It's also worth noting that the home team has dominated in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Arkansas!
|11-24-17||Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh +14||14-24||Win||100||52 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pitt +
I like the value here with the Panthers as a two touchdown dog at home against the Hurricanes. Miami came out flat last week at home against Virginia and failed to cover. No question the Hurricanes are the better team, but the pressure is really starting to build on this team and they could have a hard time not looking ahead to the ACC title game next week against Clemson.
Pitt on the other hand has nothing to lose and with no shot at getting to bowl eligibility, they are going to treat this like their bowl game. They would enjoy nothing more than ruining the Canes perfect season. Even though the Panthers have lost their last two, they were right there in both.
Another big key here is I think this is a good matchup for Pitt's defense, as their strength has been stopping the run. The Panthers rank 49th in the country, allowing just 151.3 ypg. On top of that, we should see one of their best efforts defensively here at home against a ranked opponent. I don't think Pitt pulls of the upset, but it's not out of the question. Take Pittsburgh!
|11-18-17||Utah v. Washington -17||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||64 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington -
I think we are getting great value here with the Huskies here at home against the Utes. Most are just assuming that Washington isn't going to show up after last week's loss to Stanford, which all but eliminated them from an invite to the playoffs. The thing is, I don't think this team had a great shot as it was and my money is on one of the best in the business in head coach Chris Petersen to get his team to bounce back in a big way at home.
Utah caught the attention of a lot of people with their 4-0 start, which had them ranked in the Top 20, but they have gone just 1-5 since with the most recent being a crushing loss at home to Washington State.
Unlike Stanford, who has one of the elite running backs in college football, the Utes don't have that same kind of talent to have success against the Huskies defense, which is still ranked 4th in the country, giving up only 101.5 ypg. That's a big problem for Utah as they are a run-first team and use the run to open up the passing game. I think the Utes find it very difficult to score against a Huskies defense that is only allowing 11.2 ppg at home on the year. Take Washington!
|11-18-17||California +16 v. Stanford||14-17||Win||100||71 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal +
I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching over two touchdowns in Saturday's rivalry game against Stanford, which is known as the "Big Game." You can never count out the dog in these rivalry games, as this isn't just another game. For Cal it's their biggest game of the season to date. It can be a lot harder for the favorite to bring the same intensity, especially when it's a big spread like this. Making it even harder on the Cardinal is the fact that they are coming off an emotional upset win at home over Washington and have a huge game on deck against Notre Dame.
It's no secret that the key to beating Stanford starts with limiting star running back Bryce Love. I'm not saying Cal will shut him down, but head coach Justin Fuente is a defensive guy and I think his ability to game plan and the all-out effort we are going to get from the Bears, will allow them to keep him from having one of those video game type of games. If they can do that, they will be in good shape, as this is not your typical lock down Cardinal defense.
Note that Stanford is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game in which they covered the spread. Take Cal!
|11-18-17||Connecticut v. Boston College -21||16-39||Win||100||69 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ATS Vegas INSIDER on Boston’s College -
I like the value here with the Eagles even as a big favorite in Saturday's prime time matchup against the Huskies at Fenway Park. Boston College comes in off a hard fought 14-17 loss at home to NC State. Prior to that defeat the Eagles had been rolling, racking off 3 straight wins, including blowout wins at Virginia (41-10) and at home against Florida State (35-3). I look for BC to return right back to form here and lay a beating on UConn.
The Huskies are coming off a 25-point loss at UCF and the week before fell 20-37 at home to USF. Those are the two best teams in the AAC and clearly this team came to play, as they covered the spread easily in both. I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy here against the Eagles.
More than anything, I don't think UConn will have an answer for BC's star freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who just put up 196 yards against a great NC State defensive line. At the same time, the Huskies offense is built around their passing game and this Eagles defense is not one you want to have to attack through the air, especially without a threat of a running game. They are 23rd in the country, giving up just 187.1 passing yards/game. Opposing QB's are completing just 50.2% of their attempts against them, which is outstanding. In comparison, the Huskies are have allowed opposing teams to complete 67.9% of their attempts. Take Boston College!
|11-18-17||Georgia Tech -6 v. Duke||Top||20-43||Loss||-110||74 h 22 m||Show|
5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech -
The Yellow Jackets have been a money making machine in 2017. With last week's 28-22 win at home over Georgia Tech as a 3-point dog they are now 7-1 ATS on the season. I think they keep it rolling here with a convincing road win over a struggling Duke team. After starting out the season 4-0 with an emphatic 41-17 win over Northwestern at home, the Blue Devils have lost 6 straight and the most recent was an ugly 16-21 loss at Army, where David Cutcliffe and his staff had two weeks to prepare for the Black Knights.
The extra week didn't exactly help them against the triple-option as Army put up 226 yards on the ground. Now they face an even better triple-option attack led by Georgia Tech's TaQuon Marshall and KirVonte Benson, who have combined to rush for 1,864 yards and 22 touchdowns.
The other thing here is the Blue Devils just aren't clicking offensively right now. Duke has scored more than 20 points just once in their last 6 games and that was a mere 21 against Virginia. They are averaging a whopping 14.0 ppg and 308.2 ypg in conference play. Georgia Tech in comparison is averaging 29.1 ppg and 392.3 ypg in ACC action. I just don't think the Blue Devils can score enough to keep this within a touchdown. Take Georgia Tech!
*Play was upgraded from a 3* to a 5*
|11-18-17||Minnesota v. Northwestern -7||0-39||Win||100||70 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ATS NO BRAINER on Northwestern -
I like the value here with the Wildcats laying just a touchdown at home against the Gophers on what will be senior day in Northwestern's final home game of the season. The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, as they have won 5 straight, including a 23-13 win over Purdue this past weekend as a similar 6.5-point favorite. Their only losses in conference play are against two of the elite teams in the Big 10 in Wisconsin and Penn State.
Minnesota comes in off an impressive 54-21 win at home against Nebraska, but I think that was more of the Cornhuskers throwing in the towel on their season than anything. The Gophers are still just 2-5 in Big 10 play and their other 4 wins have come against the likes of Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. Note they only beat a horrible Illini team by 7 at home and also had an ugly home loss to Maryland.
Not only do I think Minnesota isn't that good, this is a horrible matchup for the one dimensional Gophers offense. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to their ability to pick up yards in the passing game. They rank 119th out of 130 teams with just 143 ypg through the air. Even in their 52-point outburst against Nebraska they only had 105 yards passing. They are going to play right into the strength of Northwestern's defense, which ranks 7th in the country, giving up just 109.6 ypg against the run. Not only will it make it tough to score, but if they get behind this could get ugly. Take Northwestern!
|11-17-17||Middle Tennessee State -3 v. Western Kentucky||38-41||Loss||-105||47 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Friday ATS BLOWOUT on Middle Tennessee -
I like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a short road favorite against the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky hasn't been anywhere close to the C-USA power this season and it's not a huge surprise, as they only brought back 10 starters and lost a great head coach in Jeff Brohm. The Hilltoppers are lucky to be 5-5 and come in having lost 3 straight.
It hasn't been a great season for Middle Tennessee either, but the Blue Raiders struggles can be pinpointed to the absence of starting quarterback Brent Stockstill for 6 games. In his two games back from injury he's thrown for 445 yards with 6 touchdowns (3 in each game). He's going to make life miserable for a WKU defense that has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games.
The other thing here is the Blue Raiders have an underrated defense. Most would be surprised to see that Middle Tennessee ranks 26th in the country, giving up just 334 ypg, ranking inside the Top 40 against both the run and the pass. That secondary that's allowing just 193.9 ypg is key in this matchup, as the Hilltoppers are a one-dimensional passing offense. Take Middle Tennessee!
|11-15-17||Western Michigan +10 v. Northern Illinois||31-35||Win||100||45 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Michigan +
I like the value here with the Broncos catching more than a touchdown against the Huskies. Western Michigan might not be on the same level as a year ago, but they are still a very respectable 4-2 in MAC play and could very easily be 6-0. They had a fluke 13-14 loss against Akron, where they outgained the Zips by more than 200 yards. In their other loss they had a 28-14 lead going into the 4th quarter of a 28-35 loss. Even with those setbacks, the MAC West title is still within reach if they can knock off Northern Illinois and Toledo in their last two games.
The Huskies are a good team, but aren't built to blow quality teams like the Broncos out. Northern Illinois is built more to win close games with their strong rushing attack and great defense. The key here is the Western Michigan defense should be able to keep that Huskies rushing attack in check. The Broncos are allowing just 119.3 rushing yards/game in conference play
Northern Illinois is also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games. Take Western Michigan!
|11-14-17||Central Michigan v. Kent State +18||42-23||Loss||-110||21 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tues Night VEGAS INSIDER on Kent State
The public will be inclined to lay the big number on the road with Central Michigan here against a Kent State team that is just 2-8, but I think the value is with the Golden Flashes as a big home dog. It might not seem like Kent State has anything to play for, but this is senior night, so I expect a big effort here.
As for the Chippewas, they come in off a 42-30 win over Eastern Michigan, which secured bowl eligibility, which is always a big deal for these schools from smaller conferences. I think we see Central Michigan come out a bit flat here. The offense is built around their passing attack, which plays into the strength of the Kent State defense, as the Flashes rank 35th in the country vs the pass, allowing just 197.4 ypg. At the same time, I don't the Chippewas are good enough defensively to keep Kent State from scoring enough to cover this big number.
Central Michigan has also struggled in this spot in the past, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record and are also a mere 1-5 ATS mark in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Kent State!
|11-11-17||Oregon State +22 v. Arizona||28-49||Win||100||56 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon State +
I like the value here with the Beavers catching a huge number against the Wildcats. Oregon State has been playing much better football of late, as they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and haven't lost by more than 14 in each of their last 3 games.
There's no question that Arizona is the better team, but it's asking a lot for the Wildcats to bring the intensity needed to turn this into a blowout. In fact, this is a horrible spot for Arizona, who are coming off a crushing loss at USC last week, which ended any hopes they had of winning the South and playing in the Pac-12 title game.
Wildcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games, while the Beavers are 10-4 against the number in their last 14 conference games. Arizona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. On top of that the Beavers are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 trips to Arizona. Take Oregon State!
|11-11-17||Alabama v. Mississippi State +14||31-24||Win||100||37 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Mississippi State +
This probably won't seem like enough points for the Bulldogs to be catching at home against the Crimson Tide, but I see a ton of value here with Mississippi State catching two touchdowns in this matchup. I know the Bulldogs didn't perform well against the other two top teams in the SEC, losing badly to both Georgia and Auburn, but both of those came on the road. Not only is Mississippi State playing at home this time, but it couldn't be a better spot with this being a prime time night game, which means the crowd is going to be electric.
I believe the biggest key to slowing down Alabama is a strong defensive front that can keep the Crimson Tide from running it at will. I believe Mississippi State has the talent up front and the numbers back that up, as they are allowing just 84 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run at home this season. I also think the mobility of Bulldogs starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald gives Mississippi State some hope offensively.
Another big factor here is the health of the Crimson Tide. Alabama recently lost star linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton, who is second on the team with 40 tackles. They also could be without one of their top defensive linemen in Da'Shawn hand. Offensively, starting left tackle Jonah Williams is questionable. I also think Jalen Hurts is playing at less than 100%. After rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of the Tide's first 4 games, he's only averaging 38.9 ypg in the last 4. Take Mississippi State!
|11-11-17||San Jose State v. Nevada -18||14-59||Win||100||64 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS DOMINATOR on Nevada -
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack at home against an awful San Jose State team. Nevada might not look like a team that should be laying three scores, as they are just 1-8 on the season, but that just goes to show how bad this Spartans team is.
San Jose State's only win on the season came against FCS foe Cal Poly, as they are 0-8 against FBS opponents. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road, where they are 0-5 and losing by an average of 30.8 ppg. While Nevada is just 1-3 at home, they are only getting outscored at home by a single point per game and are averaging a healthy 32.2 ppg at home. I just don't see San Jose State generating enough points here to keep this within 20-points.
Last time out Nevada lost 14-41 at Boise State. That looks bad, but it's actually a positive for this matchup, as the Wolf Pack are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after a contest where they scored 14 or fewer points. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in November. Take Nevada!
|11-11-17||Michigan v. Maryland +17||35-10||Loss||-110||67 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Maryland +
I like the value here with the Terrapins catching 3 scores against the Wolverines on Saturday. The public perception on Michigan has improved dramatically the last two weeks with blowout wins over both Rutgers (35-14) and Minnesota (33-10). The thing is both of those games came at home.
Even with the recent change at quarterback to red-shirt true freshman Brandon Peters, the Wolverines still offer little to no threat of a passing attack. In fact, Michigan hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games. While the running game has been strong, they are averaging over 30 yards less than their season average on the road and just 4.1 yards/carry compared to their season mark of 5.0.
Another key factor here is this being a big lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a road game against Wisconsin and their huge rivalry game against Ohio State at home on deck. It's also worth noting that the Wolverines are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a win by more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Maryland!
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn +3||17-40||Win||100||64 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +
It's been smooth sailing for the Bulldogs so far this season, but I think their perfect season comes to an end Saturday on the road against Auburn. The Tigers are one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about, as they are just a couple of breaks away from having an undefeated record. Their only two losses came on the road and one was a 8-point defeat at Clemson and the other a 4-point loss at LSU.
This is without a doubt the best team that Georgia has had to play since they took on Notre Dame back in early September, which they barely escaped with a 20-19 win. They have basically gone 7 straight games without being tested and it can be tough when things have been so easy for so long and then you find yourself in a dog fight, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Another factor here is that while the Bulldogs are trying to stay perfect, this isn't a must-win game for them. They could lose this and as long as they win out and secure the SEC title game, they will be in the playoffs. Auburn on the other hand has everything to play for, as they can still win the SEC West with a win here and a win at home against Alabama. I think the Tigers are going to be up to the task. Take Auburn!
|11-11-17||Virginia v. Louisville -11||21-38||Win||100||49 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Louisville -
It's been a tough go of things for the Cardinals in 2017, but I like this spot for Louisville at home against Virginia. They still have one of the most potent offenses in the country behind last year's Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are averaging 36.7 ppg and nearly 550 total yards on the season. While there's not the same hype around Jackson as their was last year, he's having just as good a season, throwing for 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns and rushing for another 1,000+ yards and 14 scores.
I look for Louisville's offense to put up a big number here against a struggling Virginia defense that has allowed 31 or more points in each of their last 3 games. I know the defense for the Cardinals hasn't been great this season, but they should play one of their better games coming off their bye, as they have had two weeks to prepare for Virginia's offensive attack. Note that while the Cavaliers put up 40 last week against Georgia Tech, they had scored 20 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games.
Another key factor here that I think will get overlooked is that this is actually a big letdown spot for Virginia. With last week's win over the Yellow Jackets the Cavaliers became bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and only the second time since 2007. I look for them to come out flat and that should be more than enough for the Cardinals to turn this into a blowout. Take Louisville!
|11-11-17||Michigan State v. Ohio State -16||3-48||Win||100||45 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird NO BRAINER on Ohio State -
The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Buckeyes at this line after that horrible showing in last week's 24-55 loss on the road against a then unranked Iowa team. I'm showing over 70% of the tickets coming in on Michigan State and yet we have seen this line get even bigger. I'll take my chances here going against the trendy underdog pick in the Spartans and call for Ohio State to win here in a blowout.
There's no question that it stings a little for Ohio State to have their playoff hopes crushed with that loss to Iowa, but everyone was saying the same thing about USC after their loss to Notre Dame and the Trojans have followed up by playing their best football. Like USC, Ohio State still has a chance to win their conference and that's definitely something worth playing for.
Another thing is no team likes to be embarrassed like the Buckeyes were last week in Kinnick. That was the most points every allowed by an Urban Meyer coached team, so there's just as much motivation for the coaches as there is the players to turn this thing around.
Lastly, I'm not completely sold on Michigan State being as good as everyone thinks. The win over Penn State looks great, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Nittany Lions off that crushing collapse against Ohio State the week before. I think reality sets in and we see a similar outcome to their 20-point loss at home to Notre Dame. Take Ohio State!
|11-11-17||Rutgers +31 v. Penn State||Top||6-35||Win||100||63 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +
I think one of the hardest things for the public to do is factor in the emotional letdown teams like Penn State have when they go from thinking they got a shot at making the playoffs and playing for a national championship to having absolutely nothing to play for this late in the season. They just go off what they have seen to this point and here they see a big mismatch in talent with the Nittany Lions going up against the Scarlet Knights.
While Rutgers is a bottom-tier team in the Big Ten, they are a respectable 3-3 in Big Ten play and are playing with confidence right now, having won 3 of their last 4. While this game means nothing to Penn State, who it means everything to the Scarlet Knights, as they want to prove themselves against one of the elite teams in the conference, plus they still need two more wins to become bowl eligible.
I'm not saying Rutgers is going to pull off the upset, but I think they can certainly keep this within the massive spread here against a disinterested Penn State team. Keep in mind the Nittany Lions are now just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 after a SU loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference loss. Take Rutgers!
|11-11-17||NC State v. Boston College +3||17-14||Push||0||60 h 7 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ATS DESTROYER on Boston College +
The betting public is going to be all over a ranked NC State team laying just 3-points on the road against Boston College, but I like the Eagles to win and cover on Saturday. The Eagles have been a covering machine of late, cashing winning tickets in each of their last 6 games, including a 35-3 blowout win over FSU at home in their most recent game. They also won on the road over both Louisville and Virginia.
A big reason for their surge has been the play of true freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who was the prize recruit for Steve Addazio this past year. Dillon has rushed for 665 in his last 5 games, which includes that epic 272 yard and 4 TD performance against Louisville. BC's offense has come to life with Dillon at the focal point, scoring 45, 41 and 35 points in their last 3 games.
Not to take anything away from NC State, which is a good team, but you have to take into the account this being a horrible spot for the Wolfpack off that crushing 31-38 loss at home to Clemson, which likely cost them the ACC Atlantic title, as Clemson only has 1 conference game left and it's at home against FSU. I look for NC State to come out flat on the road and wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won here convincingly. Take Boston College!
|11-11-17||Indiana -7.5 v. Illinois||24-14||Win||100||60 h 48 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana -
I'm going to lay the points with the Hoosiers on the road in Saturday's battle of two Big Ten teams looking for their first conference win. I think the fact that these two teams are both 0-6 in Big Ten play has this line a lot lower than it should be, as I think the gap here in talent should have this closer to double-digits.
Unlike the Fighting Illini, Indiana has at least been competitive. Out of their 6 conference losses, 3 have come by 8 points or less and the other 3 were against the top 3 teams in the league in Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The closest Illinois has come to a win is a 7-point loss at Minnesota and the only reason it was that close is they scored a garbage TD in the final 30 seconds.
The other big key here is Indiana still has a lot to play for, as they can reach bowl eligibility if they win out. They certainly have to like their chances with a home game against Rutgers and road slate at Purdue left after this week's game. Illinois has nothing to play for and simply don't have enough offense to make this a game against a very underrated Hoosiers defense. Take Indiana!
|11-10-17||BYU +3.5 v. UNLV||31-21||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER
No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS
|11-08-17||Kent State +22 v. Western Michigan||20-48||Loss||-110||17 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Wed Night NO BRAINER on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching more than 3 touchdowns in Wednesday's showdown with Western Michigan. Kent State is not a good football team. They are just 2-7 on the season and come in off a 28-point loss at home to lowly Bowling Green. That will have a lot of people looking to lay this big number with the Broncos, but this Western Michigan team is hurting right now.
The Broncos recently lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone and just don't pose the same kind of threat throwing the ball with true freshman Reece Goddard under center. It doesn't stop there, as they lost two more running backs to season ending injuries, giving them 3 RB's on IR for the year. They still have their top guy in Jarvion Franklin, but I think he's going to be asked to do too much. If Kent State can simply keep him from going off and racking up big chunk plays, it's going to be really hard for the Broncos offense to put up the kind of points needed to cover this big spread.
It's also worth pointing out the books have been inflating the number on Western Michigan all season, as the Broncos are just 3-6 ATS and a mere 1-3 in their last 4. Last time out they suffered a crushing loss to Central Michigan at home and are just 6-16 ATS in their last 222 home games off a conference loss. Take Kent State!
|11-07-17||Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5||14-24||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Miami -
I like the value here with the RedHawks laying less than a touchdown at home against the Zips. Akron comes in at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in the MAC, but are no where close to as good as their record would indicate. The Zips have been extremely fortunate in close games and the overall numbers really tell just how lucky they have been. Akron ranks 117th out of 130 FBS teams in total offense at just 330.g ypg and are 107th in total defense, giving up 444.1 ypg.
While the Zips aren't as good as their record, this Miami (OH) team is much better than their 3-6 mark overall and 2-3 record in the MAC. The RedHawks have are averaging 6.2 yards/play and 427.6 ypg inside conference play, but have only been able to translate that to 25.2 ppg. With the expected return of starting quarterback Gus Ragland, I think we see Miami lay it on a bad Akron team. Note that even if Ragland doesn't play, I still like the RedHawks to win here by 7 or more. Take Miami (OH)!
|11-07-17||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -7.5||28-38||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -
This might seem like a big number to lay on the Bulls, given they come in having lost 4 straight and the Falcons off an impressive 44-16 win at Kent State last week. I just feel this Buffalo team is a lot better than people think and I'm simply not buying anything into the Falcons win over a horrible Kent State team.
The Bulls have suffered 3 heartbreaking losses during their 4-game skid. The first being that epic 7OT game against Western Michigan, which they fell 68-71. The other two were 1-point losses to both Northern Illinois and Akron. Buffalo could just as easily be 6-3 instead of 3-6, but now need to win out to make a bowl. Add in the revenge the Bulls have against this Bowling Green team (lost 6 straight) and I think we get the best they have to offer tonight at home.
Prior to their blowout win over Kent State, the Falcons had 3 losses inside MAC play by double-digits. Even after holding the Flashes to just 16 points, Bowling Green still comes in allowing 30.2 ppg and 455 ypg inside conference play. That defense of the Falcons is giving up a staggering 5.5 yards/carry and more than 100 total yards over what their opponents are averaging. Take Buffalo!
|11-04-17||Oregon +21 v. Washington||3-38||Loss||-110||85 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon +
I like the value here with the Ducks as a big dog against the Huskies. Washington is in a difficult place right now, as they have to deal with the pressure of knowing that another loss and their hopes of getting back to the CFB Playoffs are out the window.
Oregon on the other hand is playing with some confidence after an impressive 41-20 win at home over Utah to snap a 3-game skid. The Ducks also have revenge on their minds after the embarrassing 21-70 loss they suffered at home to these Huskies a year ago. This is a much-improved Ducks team from last season, despite the fact that they only come in at 5-4. I'm confident they would have had a much better record right now had star quarterback Justin Herbert not got injured.
Speaking of Herbert, I think there's a good chance he plays in this game. He's been upgraded to questionable but has been practicing with the 1st team this week. Given how much this game means to the Ducks I think he finds a way on to the field and with him this spread is way too much. In fact, Herbert could be enough to propel the Ducks to a win. Take Oregon!
|11-04-17||Nevada +22 v. Boise State||14-41||Loss||-110||43 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Nevada +
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack catching over 3 touchdowns against the Broncos. Boise State comes in having won 4 straight and have gone 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While a good run, outside of the win at San Diego State, the other 3 weren't that impressive. I think it has them way overvalued in a bad spot here against Nevada.
The Wolf Pack got off to a miserable start under first year head coach Jay Norvell, as they started out the season 0-5 before finally breaking through in a 35-21 win over Hawaii. While they lost their next two, they were impressive in defeat, losing 42-44 at Colorado State, who is one of the favorites to win the MWC and 42-45 to Air Force. As you can see the offense is starting to click, which was to be expected given Norvell's expertise on that side of the ball.
Couple key factors here are Nevada has had extra time to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. This is also a big lookahead spot for Boise State, who has a huge game on deck at Colorado State, which will likely decide the Mountain Division and who represents that side in the MWC title game.
Broncos are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when listed as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing their previous game on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a conference win. Take Nevada!
|11-04-17||Oregon State v. California -7||Top||23-37||Win||100||80 h 53 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal -
I really like the spot and the value we are getting with the Golden Bears only laying a touchdown at home against the Beavers. Oregon State is getting some love after covering each of their last 3, including a near upsets in each of their last two at home against Colorado and Stanford. Keeping it close against the Cardinal looks great on paper, but Stanford was without Love and simply aren't anywhere close to the same offensive force without him.
Now the Beavers have to try and pick themselves off the mat yet again and I just don't see it happening on the road, where they are getting outscored by 29.3 ppg on the season. Cal should have beat Arizona in their last home game, but ended up losing 44-45. Their previous home game saw them knock off previously unbeaten Washington State 37-3. They also played USC tough at home and knocked off Ole Miss at home as a 4.5-point dog.
Sitting at 4-5 and two road games left on the schedule, this is a must-win game for Cal if they want to make a bowl game in the first season under Justin Fuente and you can bet Fuente and his staff are going to do everything in their power to get to that 6-win mark to take advantage of the extra practice time that comes with a bowl game.
Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Cal!
|11-04-17||Costal Carolina v. Arkansas -23||38-39||Loss||-109||79 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas -
The Razorbacks were able to snap a 3-game losing streak with a thrilling 38-37 win at Ole Miss this past weekend and I think they carry over that momentum into a blowout win over an inferior Coastal Carolina team. Keep in mind that this a game Arkansas needs to win if they want to put themselves in a position to make a bowl, as they are just 3-5.
While I'm sure the Razorbacks aren't happy with their record, three of their losses came on the road against better teams in conference play and the other two were at home against ranked teams. This is the easiest opponent they have had since their opening week 49-7 win over FAMU.
Coastal Carolina won their opener over UMass in their first game at the FBS level, but it's been all downhill since, as the Chanticleers have lost 7 straight. This is by far their toughest challenge to date and I just see them keeping it close. Despite the easy schedule, they Coastal Carolina ranks 103rd in total offense at just 360.9 ypg and defensively have allowed 50+ on 3 different occasions. I look for the Razorbacks to easily eclipse 50+ here and I'll bank on the defense making enough plays to win here by more than the number. Take Arkansas!
|11-04-17||Ohio State v. Iowa +17||Top||24-55||Win||100||114 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +
I think we are getting great value here with the Hawkeyes catching 3 scores at home against the Buckeyes. Ohio State just pulled off a miraculous 39-38 win at home against Penn State when it looked like they were primed to lose and in turn have their playoff hopes come crashing to the ground. That win may have saved their season, but I also think it puts them in a prime letdown spot here on the road against a stingy Iowa team, especially with a huge home game on deck against Michigan State that could end up deciding the Big Ten East title race.
This isn't a great Iowa team by any means, but they have shown they can hang with the big boys, losing at home to Penn State by just 2 in a game the Nittany Lions needed a last second touchdown to pull out the win. The Hawkeyes were dominated in yards by Penn State, but just have a way of keeping games close regardless of the gap in talent, especially at home. All 3 of their losses this season have come by a touchdown or less. That streak might come to an end, but I think they do more than enough here to cover this big number.
Hawkeyes are an impressive 27-5 ATS in their last 32 games against similar teams to Ohio State who are excellent rushing teams, averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry. They are also 18-5 in their last 23 vs a team that averages 37 or more points/game. Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa!
|11-04-17||South Florida v. Connecticut +24||37-20||Win||100||96 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ANNIHILATOR on UConn +
South Florida hopes of a perfect season came crashing to an end in last weeks' shocking 24-28 home loss to Houston. While a 7-1 record might not seem like something to hang your head on, it can be tough for these small conference teams to rebound from their first defeat this late in the season.
I think we see a flat USF team take the field on the road here against the Huskies, who have the offensive fire-power to keep this within striking distance for the cover. Connecticut has the 23rd ranked passing attack in the country at 292.4 ypg and that's important, as they are well equipped to play from behind, which also opens up the possibility of a back-door cover if things do get out of hand early.
It's also worth noting that while USF comes in ranked 20th in the country in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg, they have not been nearly as good in league play, giving up 405 ypg in their 5 conference games.
Huskies are a solid 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games in the month of November, while the Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Connecticut!
|11-04-17||Wake Forest +14 v. Notre Dame||37-48||Win||100||91 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +
I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching two touchdowns against the Fighting Irish. Considering that Notre Dame is off a 35-14 beating of NC State and have won 6 straight by at least 20 points, most will be quick to back the Irish against unranked Wake Forest.
What's getting overlooked is this being a horrible spot for Notre Dame. The Irish have had to work their tails off to make up for that earlier loss to Georgia at home and it's paid off as they were No. 3 in the first CFB Playoff rankings. It would only be human nature for them to let their guard down here against an inferior opponent, especially given their last two games were both high-profile matchups against USC and NC State and to top it off they got another huge game on deck at Miami.
Wake isn't an elite team by any means, but are 5-3 for a reason and just beat Louisville at home by 10. The previous two games they lost at both Clemson and Georgia Tech, but only lost each contest by 14 points. This team is battle-tested and while they might be outclassed, they are going to go in with the belief they can win. I think they give the Irish a big scare here and cover the number. Take Wake Forest!
|11-04-17||Wisconsin -10.5 v. Indiana||45-17||Win||100||95 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -
A big talking point with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings is how the Badgers are 9th despite their 8-0 start. The biggest reason for Wisconsin not being higher is because of their schedule not being hard enough. No question the Badgers have been listening to what people are saying and I think we see one of their better efforts of the season, as they will be out to show everyone they are for real.
Wisconsin has had some games end up closer than expected, but none of them were every really in doubt. At the same time, their defense is the real deal. The Badgers are 5th in the country, giving up just 268.1 ypg. I think we see that defense make life miserable for the Hoosiers, who scored just 14 against Penn State and 9 against the Spartans, two defenses that I would rank on par with the Badgers. I also don't think Indian's defense is as good as people think. They gave up 27 to a bad Michigan offense at home and last week allowed 42 to a Maryland team that has a 3rd string QB.
Hoosiers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Badgers have been a covering machine on the road, cashing in 8 of their last 9 ATS away from home. Take Wisconsin!
|11-03-17||Marshall +7 v. Florida Atlantic||25-30||Win||100||19 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +
We are getting great value here with the Thundering Herd against FAU. Marshall is simply getting undervalued off a loss at home to FIU in their last game, where they lost 30-41 as a 15-point favorite. That's not as bad as loss as it looks, as FIU is better than they get credit for. It was also a bit of a misleading final, as the Herd outgained the Panthers by over 100 yards and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.
On the other side of this, FAU is overvalued off four straight covers where they have by a minimum of 14 points. The Owls also get a lot of love because the public is familiar with their head coach in Lane Kiffin.
This is a really tough matchup for FAU, as their offense is built around their running game and the Thundering Herd are a top tier defense, giving up just 17.6 ppg and 326 ypg. They only allow 124 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry against the run. If the offense isn't clicking, the Owls could be in trouble, as their defense isn't anything special, as they have allowed 28 or more points 5 different times, including each of their last 3.
I think this should be closer to a field goal, making this an easy play at this price. Keep in mind the Owls are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite. Take Marshall!