|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-26-19||Florida International -3 v. Middle Tennessee State||17-50||Loss||-110||99 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida International -3 -110
I see a ton of value here with FIU laying only a field goal against the Blue Raiders on Saturday. The Panthers got off to a slow start with just 1 win in their first 4 games and I think people wrote this team off.
Turns out the schedule was harder than it looked. They lost at Tulane, who is 5-2 with their only two losses on the road to Auburn and Memphis. They followed that up with a loss at home to WKU and they too are 5-2. The other against LA Tech who is 6-1 and looking like the team to beat in C-USA.
Since that slow start FIU has gone 3-0 with all 3 coming in blowout fashion. They should have no problem making easy work of Middle Tennessee, who is going to have a hard time bouncing back from a crushing 33-30 loss at North Texas.
Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS last 5 versus a team with a winning record. FIU is 6-2 ATS last 8 road games. Take FIU!
|10-26-19||Auburn v. LSU -10||Top||20-23||Loss||-107||99 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Auburn/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU -10 -107
This might seem like a big number for LSU to be laying against a Auburn team that is 6-1 both SU and ATS, but I just think LSU is a clear step above Auburn. Everyone was calling for LSU to have a letdown last week against Mississippi State and they cruised to a 36-13 win.
Auburn gets a lot of love for beating Oregon and Texas A&M, but they also lost by 9 at Florida and LSU beat the Gators by 14. I just don't think the Auburn can go score for score with LSU and this will get ugly once Auburn is forced to throw.
Home favorites in games involving two dominant teams that are outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yards/play are 70-32 (69%) ATS if coming off 3 straight games where the gained 6.35 or more yards/play.
Also a strong system in favor of fading Auburn. Teams like Auburn that have beat the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 5 games and have won 80% or more of their games are a mere 31-70 (31%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take LSU!
|10-26-19||North Texas -3.5 v. Charlotte||38-39||Loss||-110||99 h 49 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on North Texas -3½ -110
The Mean Green are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the 49ers. North Texas hasn't been as good as people were expecting given they returned Mason Fine at quarterback, but they got two losses at SMU and Cal. They also had an ugly loss to Houston after King redshirted and a loss at SOuthern Miss.
I like how they responded last week with a 33-30 win over Middle Tennessee. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win by a touchdown against this Charlotte team. The 49ers are 2-5 and the two wins are against Gardner Webb and UMass. They come in having lost and failed to cover in 4 straight.
They are giving up 39.4 ppg against teams that only average 29.5 ppg. North Texas is putting up 32.1 ppg and 449 yards/game. Charlotte is just 1-5 ATS last 6 conference games. Take Mean Green!
|10-26-19||Illinois +10 v. Purdue||24-6||Win||100||95 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Big Ten ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK on Illinois +10 -110
I think we are seeing some great value here with the Fighting Illini as a double-digit dog against Purdue. I think when the public sees a team like Illinois pull off a massive upset like they did last week beating Wisconsin as a 29-point underdog, there first thought is that team will have a big letdown.
I'm just not buying that. I think we see the Fighting Illini use that win to their advantage and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Purdue covered last week at Iowa as 17.5-point dog, but that Hawkeyes team looks broken. Boilermakers just have no threat of a running game. They are averaging 59 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry. If they struggle at all in the passing game they will lose here.
Road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent are 36-12 ATS (75%) last 5 seasons when facing a team like Purdue that is off a conference loss by 7 or less. Take Illinois!
|10-25-19||USC v. Colorado +12||35-31||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - USC/Colorado Weeknight NO-BRAINER on Colorado +12 -105
Really like the value here with Colorado as a double-digit home dog against the the Trojans. I think now is the time to strike with the Buffaloes after 3 straight losses. The last two being blowout losses on the road to Oregon and Washington State.
USC has had their moments and are off an impressive 41-14 win at Arizona, but I'm not ready to lay double-digits with them in a prime time road game. Not to mention this is a really tough spot for the Trojans with a monumental game on deck at home against Oregon.
USC is just 19-40-1 last 60 off a SU win, 4-11-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 1-6 ATS last 7 on Friday. Take Colorado!
|10-24-19||SMU -13.5 v. Houston||Top||34-31||Loss||-109||78 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - SMU/Houston C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on SMU -13½ -109
Laying almost two touchdowns on the road in a weekday game isn't thought of as a great play. I don't care. I think SMU is going to absolutely lay it on the Cougars tonight.
Houston had a spirited effort in the first game after King decided to take a healthy red-shirt because his team wasn't good enough, but that was against a North Texas team that has not lived up to expectations. They then were beat badly at Cincinnati and barely won on the road against UCONN.
As for the Mustangs, they haven't lost a game behind their star transfer QB Shane Buechele, who ranks in the Top 10 in both yards (2,122) and TD passes (18). Books have not been able to set the number high enough, as SMU is 6-1 ATS. They are going to score at will against this Houston defense and I don't see the Cougars being able to keep pace. Take SMU!
|10-21-19||Patriots v. Jets +10||33-0||Loss||-110||12 h 24 m||Show|
4* NFL - Pats/Jets MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Jets +10 -110
This is too good a price to pass up with New York at home. The Jets looked like a different team with Sam Darnold under center last week, as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as a 7-point home dog. New York isn't just going into MNF thinking they can keep it close, they believe they can win outright.
These two already played back in Week 3, which the Patriots won 30-14. New England only won by 16 and Luke Faulk started that game for the Jets. Tom Brady threw for 306 yards in that win, but the Pats only man aged 68 rushing yards on 27 attempts (2.5 yards/carry). Brady completed 30 of 42 pass attempts. Of those 30, 18 were to Rex Burkhead, Phillip Dorsett and Josh Gordon. Both Burkhead and Gordon are out and Dorsett is questionable. There was also concern Edelman might not play and he had 7 of the other 12 receptions.
I look for this to be a low-scoring game, which definitely adds to the value here with New York at this price. Jets have covered 24 of their last 35 at home against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ ppg and 7-1-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take New York!
|10-20-19||Saints v. Bears -3||Top||36-25||Loss||-120||48 h 22 m||Show|
5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120
It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses.
He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara.
Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago!
|10-20-19||Ravens v. Seahawks -3||30-16||Loss||-107||48 h 22 m||Show|
4* NFL - Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Seahawks -3 -107
No way I'm passing up on the Seahawks as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Ravens. Seattle is 5-1 to start the year and have won 3 straight. Russell Wilson looks like the front runner for the MVP with Mahomes banged up and yet it doesn't feel like this Seahawks team is getting any love.
I look for Wilson to have a huge game against a suspect Ravens secondary and you know he wants to get the better of former Seahawk safety Earl Thomas. Baltimore ranks in the bottom 10 of the league against the pass, as opposing QB's are completing 61% and averaging 7.7 yards/attempt.
Favorites off 2 straight games with 50 or more points scored are 35-12 (75%) ATS the last 10 seasons in games where both defenses are struggling (allowing 23-27 ppg). Take the Seattle!
|10-20-19||Cardinals +3.5 v. Giants||27-21||Win||100||45 h 57 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals +3½ -115
I just don't trust this Giants team and feel they are getting a little too much love because of the media hype around Daniel Jones. Not to mention NY is expected to get back Saquon Barkley. The problem that keeps getting overlooked with the Giants is the defense.
New York is 31st out of 32 teams against the pass, giving up 285 yards/game. They also rank in the bottom 10 (24th) against the run, allowing 127.3 ypg. That defense is going up against a confident rookie QB in Kyler Murray, who has guided the Cardinals to back-to-back wins.
Giants are 1-9 ATS at home in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. They are just 8-19 ATS last 27 off a road loss by 21 or more. Cardinals are 12-3 ATS last 15 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Take Arizona!
|10-19-19||Boise State -7 v. BYU||Top||25-28||Loss||-109||30 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Boise State -7 -109
I'll gladly lay the touchdown with Boise State on the road against the Cougars. I'm not really sure why this BYU team gets so much love. The schedule has been brutal, there's no denying that. However, their two wins are against Tenn and USC by 3-points a piece.
This team lost by 26 at home to Washington, lost at Toledo and they just fell at South Florida. That loss to USF is bad. The Bulls were without starting QB Blake Barnett (had just 72 yards passing). That's the same USF team that lost 49-0 to Wisconsin and somehow managed to lose to an awful Georgia Tech team.
I get that Boise State's QB might not play, but the backup has been solid. More than anything, I don't think the Broncos need much from their QB to win here by double-digits. Take Boise State!
|10-19-19||Arizona v. USC -9.5||14-41||Win||100||29 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on USC -9½ -108
Definitely worth a look here to lay the 9.5 at home with USC. I think this is the perfect spot to buy low on the Trojans. To a lot of people this will look like too many points for USC to be laying. Trojans are off back-to-back losses and just 3-3 overall. Arizona is off a loss to Washington, but had won 4 straight prior to that defeat.
I just don't think people realize how good this USC team is. The Trojans could of easily won at BYU (lost by 3 in OT), they only lost by 14 at Washington and put up quite the fight at Notre Dame last week (lost by 3). Their 3 wins are against Fresno St, Utah and Stanford, so there have been no easy games on the schedule.
That is until now. Arizona is mediocre at best. losing by 24 at Washington was not a surprise and I don't see them being able to keep USC from marching up and down the field. Keep in mind the Wildcats allowed 45 to Hawaii and 41 to Northern Arizona earlier this season. Trojans got to much talent at the skill positions. Take USC!
|10-19-19||Coastal Carolina v. Georgia Southern -6.5||27-30||Loss||-109||23 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - C Carolina/G Southern Side/Total Parlay on Georgia Southern -6½ & UNDER 45½
I like both the side and total in Saturday's Sun Belt showdown between Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern. Last time out the Eagles held South Alabama to just 17 points and I don't see them allowing much in this one.
Coastal Carolina just gave up 350 yards rushing last time out to Georgia State. All Georgia Southern wants to do is run the ball with that option attack. These option teams are not fun to face and I just think the Chanticleers are going to want nothing to do with being cut block all game.
Coastal Carolina is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games and have failed to cover 6 straight conference games. Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 at home. UNDER is 5-2 in Chanticleers last 7 off a loss and 12-4 in Georgia Southern's last 16 after giving up 20+ points. Take Georgia Southern & UNDER!
|10-19-19||New Mexico v. Wyoming -17.5||Top||10-23||Loss||-103||7 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -17½ -103
Love the Cowboys to cover the number at home against the Lobos. New Mexico lost by 52 on the road to Notre Dame and just lost by 14 at home to a bad Colorado State team. They got no business keeping this close.
Cowboys will be motivated off a tough a loss at SDSU and the game before they took out UNLV at home 53-17. Last year Wyoming destroyed the Lobos 31-3 and the year before it was 42-3. Expect more of the same on Saturday.
Cowboys are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 19.5 ppg. Take Wyoming!
|10-18-19||Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -4.5||36-31||Loss||-100||8 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Marshall/FAU C-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -4½ -100
I got no problem here laying the 4.5 with FAU at home against Marshall. I just think the perception here is that these two teams are evenly matched, but I don't see that at all. For starters, Marshall lost 13-24 to Middle Tennessee and FAU just beat that same Blue Raiders team 28-13.
Marshall has two cupcake wins over VMI and ODU to go along with a fortunate 33-31 win at home against Ohio. FAU's only two losses are to Ohio State and UCF. People give Marshall credit for only losing by 7 at Boise State, but that was a misleading final. Broncos outgained the Herd 437 to 172 with a 22 to 9 edge in first downs. Marshall also got annihilated 52-14 at home against Cincinnati.
The other big thing for me is the Owls have the much better signal caller in this matchup. Isaiah Green for Marshall provides a dual threat, but is really limited throwing the ball. FAU's Chris Robinson is completing 64% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Look for the Owls to win the turnover battle at home and get their revenge from last year's lopsided loss at Marshall. Take FAU!
|10-17-19||UCLA +4.5 v. Stanford||34-16||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - UCLA/Stanford Weeknight NO-BRAINER on UCLA +4½ -110
I could see why some would be scared to back UCLA as a small road dog against Stanford, given the Bruins are off an ugly 17-point loss at home to Oregon State and just 1-5 on the season. However, this game is there for the taking, as the Cardinal have been decimated with injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
Stanford will be without their top two quarterbacks in K.J. Costello and Davis Mills. They will have to turn to sophore Jack West, who will be making his first career start. That's bad enough, but it gets worse. The Cardinal have also sustained a number of injuries on the offensive line and will have 3 freshman forced into action. Even against a sub-par UCLA defense, I don't see the Stanford offense being able to do much.
Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 ponts who are giving up 6.1 or more yards/play are 41-12 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons after a game where they had 475 or more total yards. Take UCLA!
|10-16-19||South Alabama v. Troy -14.5||Top||13-37||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Early Week Day PLAY OF THE MONTH on Troy -14½ -110
I think the books made a big mistake not making Troy a much bigger favorite here. There's no denying that this year's Trojans team isn't as good as the one that won 10-games last year. That and the fact that Troy is just 1-4 ATS has people considering South Alabama at this price.
It's not like The Trojans have been losing to bad teams and they are a couple close losses away from being 4-1 with their only loss on the road to Missouri. They are still way more talented than South Alabama and I just don't see the Jaguars pathetic excuse for an offense being able to keep pace.
South Alabama has not eclipsed 17 points in any of their last 4 games and have played some bad defenses in this stretch. The most they have scored all season against a FBS opponent is 21 against Nebraska and they had a 13-yard TD drive in that game. The Trojans has scored 35+ in every game not against a Power 5 opponent. Take Troy!
|10-14-19||Lions +4 v. Packers||22-23||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
4* NFL - Lions/Packers MNF NO-BRAINER on Lions +4 -110
I think we are getting some big time value here with Detroit catching more than a field goal. The betting public just assumes an Aaron Rodgers led team can't lose at home in a prime time game, but the Lions have won 4 straight in the series and have won 3 of their last 4 trips to Green Bay.
Packers defense has been one of the more improved units in the league, but I don't know that it's as good as people think. Also, the offense hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard. Green Bay has just 1 game this season where they have thrown for more than 235 yards. They also have finished with fewer than 80 yards rushing in 3 of 5 games.
Detroit is a team that gets little to no respect, but I really like what Matt Patricia is doing with this team. They won at Philadelphia and should have beat the Chiefs at home. They will be ready to go here coming off a bye. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lions win this outright. Give me Detroit +4!
|10-13-19||Cowboys v. Jets +7.5||22-24||Win||100||54 h 25 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Jets +7½ -115
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Jets. I think the public perception is that the Cowboys will bounce back against a bad team after a couple of bad losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think there's some pretty clear flaws with that Cowboys offense.
As for the Jets, you have to take their 0-4 start and factor in they didn't have starting quarterback Sam Darnold for 3 of those games. Not only that, but they were quickly down to their No. 3 starter and it was a massive drop off. Darnold will put more pressure on the defense, which should allow Le'Veon Bell to be a bigger factor.
Cowboys are just 6-18 ATS last 24 road games vs bad offensive teams (avg. 258 or less ypg). Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 at home against a team with a .500 or better record on the road. Take New York!
|10-13-19||49ers v. Rams -3||20-7||Loss||-120||54 h 5 m||Show|
4* NFL - 49ers/Rams NFC West NO-BRAINER on Rams -3 -120
Love the value here with the Rams laying only a field goal at home against the 49ers. I know Todd Gurley is questionable, but with or without him I think LA gets the job done at home.
A lot of people are jumping on the 49ers bandwagon after that impressive 31-3 win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football. SF is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, they have played a relatively easy schedule.
Their worst offensive performance came in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, when they struggled to run the ball. Finished with just 98 yards on 32 attempts. Rams have been pretty solid against th run, especially at home, where they are allowing just 72 ypg and 2.9 yards/carry. Also, 49ers run game figures to take a huge hit with the loss of fullback Kyle Juszczyk. When Juszczyk got hurt in that Browns game, the SF's offense did not look the same. Take Los Angeles!
|10-13-19||Redskins v. Dolphins +3.5||17-16||Win||100||51 h 59 m||Show|
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dolphins +3½ -110
As bad as the Dolphins have looked to start out the 2019 season, I have to take my chances with Miami covering as a 3.5-point home dog against Washington. There's no way this Redskins team should be favored on the road against any team in the league right now.
Washington just fired head coach Jay Gruden and might be without two starters on the offensive line, as both Donald Penn and Brandon Scherff are both questionable. Keep in mind they are still without star left tackle Trent Williams who is holding out.
Miami clearly is in rebuilding mode, but there's no way the players aren't going to try to give their best effort for a win. I think we get one of their best efforts all season at home coming off a bye against a team they know they can beat. Let's overlook that the Dolphins have played 4 potential playoff teams in the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers. Take Miami!
|10-13-19||Eagles +3 v. Vikings||20-38||Loss||-100||51 h 59 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles +3 +104
I like the Eagles to go into Minnesota and come away with a win, making them an easy play at +3. I just think there's a lot more flaws with this Vikings team than people realize. They are 3-2, but their 3 wins are against the Falcons, Raiders and Giants.
Kirk Cousin has not looked good outside of that game against a bad Giants defense. When this team has faced a good defense they have not done much. They had just 16 points against Green Bay and managed a mere 6 against the Bears.
Eagles defense has been spotty, but most of their problems have come against the pass. In fact, they lead the league in run defense, giving up just 63 yards/game. If Minnesota can't run the ball they are in serious trouble. Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have to do much to get the win. Take Philadelphia!
|10-12-19||Arkansas v. Kentucky -6.5||20-24||Loss||-110||34 h 34 m||Show|
4* NCAAF -Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Kentucky -6½ -110
I think this is the ideal spot to buy low and back the Wildcats laying less than a touchdown at home against the Razorbacks. Kentucky was the surprise team of the SEC last year, as they went 5-3 in the conference and 10-3 overall. THis year they are just 2-3 and coming into this game off 3 straight losses.
The thing is, they lost at home to Florida by just 8 and had a 21-10 lead on the Gators in the 4th quarter. They then lost on the road to Miss State and South Carolina, which was to be expected. This feels like a make or break point in their season and I like Mark Stoops team to respond in a big way, especially coming off a bye week.
All you need to know about the Razorbacks is they lost at home to San Jose STate 24-31 and that they have allowed 31+ points in every game against a FBS opponent. Note that Kentucky hasn't allowed more than 30 in a game this season. Also quarterback Nick Starkel, who took over the starting job from Ben Hicks is questionable to play. I look for the Wildcats to win comfortably. Take Kentucky!
|10-12-19||Texas Tech v. Baylor -10||30-33||Loss||-110||7 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Tech/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10 -110
This might seem like a big number for the Bears to be laying at home against Texas Tech, who just upset Oklahoma State as a double-digit home dog, but I think people are sleeping on this Baylor team. I don't see this game being close at all.
Texas Tech really benefited from a sloppy Cowboys performance. Oklahoma State turned it over 5 times. Red Raiders defense had only forced 4 turnovers in their first 4 games. In their previous two games, both on the road, Tech was destroyed. They lost 55-16 at Oklahoma and 28-14 at Arizona. I think the Bears win here by 14+ easy. Take Baylor!
|10-12-19||Alabama -17 v. Texas A&M||47-28||Win||100||30 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Alabama/TX A&M SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Alabama -17 -104
I got no problem here laying the 17 on the road with Alabama. The Crimson Tide are a team on a mission and I just don't think the Aggies have the goods to keep this thing respectable. People will point to Texas A&M only losing to Clemson by 14-points on the road, but the Tigers haven't looked anywhere near as good as we thought they would.
Then there's that ugly loss at home to Auburn, which now looks even worse after Auburn's 24-13 loss at Florida. Auburn went into College Station and won 28-20. Score makes it look like it was close, but Texas A&M trailed 21-3 going into the 4th quarter.
Both games the Aggies offense really struggled to score and that's the big issue here. Alabama is going to score and score a lot. Alabama is averaging 51.8 ppg against teams that only give up 29.3 ppg.
There's also the Nick Saban vs a former assistant at head coach. Fisher coached under Saban back at LSU. Saban is a perfect 17-0 SU against his former assistants and has won by an average score of 41.6 to 14.2. Take Alabama!
|10-12-19||Maryland v. Purdue +3.5||Top||14-40||Win||100||26 h 4 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +3½ -105
I love Purdue getting a field goal and the hook at home against Maryland. No way should the Terps be favored on the road here. I get that Purdue is down their starting QB and star wide out Rondale Moore, but it's not like Maryland isn't down a few key players. Terps will be without their starting QB in Josh Jackson and will once again turn to Tyrrell Pigrome.
Sure Pigrome has experienced, but there's a reason he's been a backup for four years. It's pretty big downgrade here from Jackson. The fact that Maryland is favored with him as the starter will only serve as more motivation for Jeff Brohm's team. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog.
Maryland comes in off a 48-7 blowout win over Rutgers. Based on what we have seen from the Scarlet Knights this season, I'm not sure why everyone is so excited about that win. This is still the same team that lost 20-17 on the road to Temple and managed just 128 total yards in a 59-0 loss at home to Penn State.
Keep in mind Maryland followed a 63-20 blowout win over Syracuse with that upset loss at Temple and are just 4-15 ATS in their last 21 off a conference win by 21 or more points. Take Purdue!
|10-12-19||Memphis v. Temple +5.5||28-30||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Temple +5½ -110
I see a ton of value here with Temple at this price. The Owls already have one home win as a home dog against Maryland. They were also a 5.5-point dog in that fight. Memphis is just getting a little too much love off their 5-0 start.
Their best win was against Ole Miss and they barely beat them. This will also be by far their toughest road game of 2019. Tigers are a mere 19-35 ATS in their last 54 as a favorite of -3.5 to -10. Owls are 16-6 ATS last 22 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Take Temple!
|10-11-19||Virginia v. Miami-FL -2||9-17||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Virginia/Miami ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami-FL -2 -110
In the eyes of the betting public there's no way the Hurricanes should be favored in this matchup. Virginia is No. 20 in the country, coming off a bye and are 4-1 with their only loss coming in a game against Notre Dame where they turned it over 5 times. Miami on the other hand is sitting at 2-3 and just lost outright as a 14-point favorite to Va Tech, who had not been playing well.
Those that didn't watch the game against the Hokies, Miami starting quarterback Jarren Williams threw an interception on each of their first 3 series and Mike Harley fumbled on the next. It was 28-0 before the Hurricanes knew what hit them. They actually came back and tied the game 35-35.
Backup QB N'Kosi Perry who started a few games last year, threw for 422 yards and 4 scores in relief of Williams. I think he's brought life to the offense and head coach Manny Diaz is taking more control of the defense this week. This is still the same team that had Florida on the ropes in Week 1.
I think we see the Hurricane's defense really step up in this game and shutdown a pretty mediocre Virginia offense. Take Miami!
|10-11-19||Colorado State -3.5 v. New Mexico||35-21||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Colo St/NM MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -3½ +100
It can be really hard to lay points with a team that is sitting at 1-5 with their only win coming at home against Western Illinois, but I really like the Rams to win here by at least a touchdown. Colorado State may be 1-5, but a lot of that is the schedule. The 5 losses are against Colorado, Arkansas, Toledo, Utah State and San Diego State. They were a dog in all of those.
New Mexico isn't just a team they can beat, but beat rather easily. The Lobos have losses against the likes of Liberty and San Jose State. They also barely beat in-state rival New Mexico State 55-52. Aggies haven't won a game this season. Take Colorado State!
|10-07-19||Browns +4 v. 49ers||3-31||Loss||-115||107 h 30 m||Show|
4* NFL - Browns/49ers MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Browns +4 -115
The Browns are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the 49ers. San Francisco is overvalued after their 3-0 start. 49ers are improved, but also haven't really been tested.
Their last two wins were against the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, which they were lucky to win, and the Bengals, who are now 0-5. Their 31-17 win over the Bucs in Week 1 looks decent, but they were actually outgained 295 to 256. Difference in the game was they had two interceptions returned for scores.
Browns had that ugly 43-13 loss at home to the Titans and people were quick to jump off the bandwagon. They have won 2 of their last 3 since with the only loss to the Rams. They are coming off their best performance of the season, destroying the Ravens 40-25 in Baltimore.
Browns have now covered 4 straight on the road and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Cleveland!
|10-06-19||Cardinals v. Bengals -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-110||75 h 12 m||Show|
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110
Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated.
Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything.
I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati!
|10-06-19||Bears -5.5 v. Raiders||Top||21-24||Loss||-110||4 h 41 m||Show|
5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110
This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland.
What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago!
|10-05-19||Boise State -22.5 v. UNLV||38-13||Win||100||15 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -22½ -110
I'm confident Boise State will return from their bye week with a blowout win at UNLV. Broncos are 4-0 with a win at Florida State and a couple of solid home wins over Marshall and Air Force. Hard to find a lot to complain about, but with a true freshman at QB a bye week can do wonders.
I just don't see UNLV being able to keep pace offensively with Boise State. Outside of a sloppy 14 effort against Marshall, the Broncos have put 30+ on the board. The only team UNLV has held under 30 is Southern Utah. They gave up 43 to Arkansas State and 53 to Wyoming. Would not be surprised at all if Boise scored 50+.
UNLV's offense put up 56 in the opener, but hasn't eclipsed 17 in the 3 games since. Boise State has held each of their last 3 teams under 20 points. I could see the Broncos having this spread covered early in the 1st half. Take Boise State!
|10-05-19||Northwestern v. Nebraska -7||10-13||Loss||-108||54 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Nebraska/Northwestern BIG TEN PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -7 -108
It's really hard to back a team that just burned you, especially when they fail to cover in the manner than Nebraska did last week against Ohio State. Lot of people liked the Cornhuskers to at worse cover the 17-point spread. They lost 48-7 getting outgained by an embarrassing 349 yards (580 to 231).
I think we are seeing a much lower number and a lot of value with only needing Nebraska to win by 8 or more. People are giving Northwestern credit for playing Wisconsin tough last week (lost 24-15 as a 22.5-point dog). However, I think some of that was the Badgers suffering a bit of a letdown off that emotional thumping of Michigan the previous week.
I think the Northwestern offense is getting a pass for their anemic offensive numbers the last two games because it was against Michigan State and Wisconsin. They only had 210 yards and 7 points (scoreless through 3+ quarters) against a Stanford defense that has given up 45 on two different occasions.
It's also a lot easier to pick yourself up after a blowout loss than it is a game where you lose in the final seconds. I think we get a big effort from Nebraska at home and I just don't see the Wildcats being able to keep it close. Take Nebraska!
|10-05-19||Auburn -2.5 v. Florida||13-24||Loss||-112||54 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF- Auburn/Florida SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Auburn -2½ -112
As difficult as it is to bet against Dan Mullen as a home dog, I can't help myself by play Auburn at less than a field goal. I know Florida is 5-0 and ranked No. 10 in the country, but I don't see them as the 10th best team. Two of their five wins are against FCS foes. The other 3 against Miami, @ Kentucky and Tennessee. Wildcats and Vols are both bad and they only beat the Hurricanes by 4. Miami lost at UNC and only beat C Michigan by 5 at home.
Auburn's 5-0 resume reads a little different. They got two Top 25 wins. One against then No. 11 Oregon and the other an impressive 28-20 win at No. 17 Texas A&M at night. They also played a really good Tulane team in non-conference and just whooped Mississippi State 56-23.
Auburn has one of the best defensive fronts in the country and will be facing what I think is a very weak Florida offense that is down to No. 2 QB Kyle Trask. Trask has played okay against suspect competition, but I don't think he's prepared for what he will be up against on Saturday. Take Auburn!
|10-05-19||TCU v. Iowa State -3||24-49||Win||100||52 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa State -3 -110
I like the Cyclones to easily win by more than a field goal at home against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State comes in at 2-2 and off a crushing 23-21 loss at Baylor. A game they probably should have won, despite being down 20-0 going into the 4th quarter. They let another game get away late earlier this year against Iowa. This team could easily be 4-0. No way this line is 3 if they were.
TCU just whooped up on Kansas, big deal. Even though the Jayhawks beat BC on the road earlier this year, that doesn't mean they are a serious threat in the Big 12. They are still the worst team in the conference. Prior to that they lost at home to SMU, who plays in the AAC. Their only other win vs a FBS opponent is a road win at Purdue with the Boilermakers down their starting QB.
SMU put up 41 points and over 400 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs. I look for Brock Purdy and the ISU offense to have similar success. On the flip side of this, I look for the Cyclones defensive front to impose their will and make things difficult for a TCU offense that would much rather run than pass. Take Iowa State!
|10-05-19||Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech +10.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||50 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +10½ -110
Perfect opportunity to play into some overreactions and get a great number with the Red Raiders at home. No one wants anything to do with Texas Tech in this matchup. Red Raiders enter off back-to-back double-digit losses. First they fell 28-14 at Arizona and then returned from their bye with a 55-16 setback at Oklahoma.
As for the Cowboys, they just won convincingly 26-13 at home over a ranked K-State team, improving to 4-1 on the year. Only loss a close defeat at Texas 36-30. Most will feel like 10 isn't enough for Tech to cover.
Red Raiders are not as bad as people think. I think they show up with a max effort and will be a lot more potent in front of a rowdy home crowd with a ranked team visiting. Key to slowing to the Cowboys is not letting Chubba Hubbard get free. I think Tech's defense will be up to the task. If OK State doesn't bring their 'A' game, I could easily see the Red Raiders winning outright. Take Texas Tech!
|10-05-19||Tulane v. Army +3||42-33||Loss||-100||50 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Early Bird Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Army +3 +100
The Black Knights are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Green Wave. In fact, my numbers suggest that Army should be the ones favored in this matchup. Black Knights should be 4-0. The only loss being that 21-24 setback at Michigan.
I just think because they struggled in their opener with Rice (won 14-7 as a 23-point favorite), haven't really beat anyone of significance (other wins against UTSA and Morgan State) and the perception of how bad Michigan is, has the Black Knights undervalued.
Jeff Monken has done an outstanding job with this program. After going just 6-18 his first two years, they are 32-11 with a perfect 3-0 record in bowl games. Tulane hasn't played since that epic 38-31 win and cover over Houston as a 4.5-point favorite a couple weeks ago.
Green Wave are 3-1 with their only loss at Auburn. This is definitely the best team yet for Willie Fritz at Tulane, but they are simply not worthy of being road favorites against a team like Army. Black Knights are giving up just 104 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry, so it's a good matchup against the run-heavy Tulane offense. Take Army!
|10-05-19||Kent State +36 v. Wisconsin||0-48||Loss||-110||4 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Kent State +36 -110
I think it's going to be tough for the Badgers to cover this massive spread against Kent State. I think it's one thing to get up for non-conference games when they are the first games on the schedule. Lot tougher when they are sandwiched around conference play.
Badgers are banged up right now. I expect them to just go through the basics, make sure they get a win and get guys rest up for next week's showdown with Michigan State. Also, last 6 times Wisconsin was off a conference win, they failed to cover the next time out.
Kent State has also been covering machines against teams like Wisconsin. Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS last 10 vs dominant ball control team, who average 32+ mins of possession and 21+ first downs. Take Kent State!
|10-03-19||Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +10||Top||20-17||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on South Alabama +10 -110
The public is all over Georgia Southern in this one, but yet we have seen the line keep dropping in favor of the Jaguars. I'm with the sharp money on this one, as I think we are getting great value with South Alabama as a double-digit home dog.
Jaguars enter this game at 1-4, but it's been a pretty rough schedule. Of the 4 losses, 3 have come on the road against the likes of Nebraska, UAB and ULM. The other was a home game against Memphis.
Georgia Southern is just 1-3 and were just beat badly at home by Lafayette last week, which really tells me this is not same caliber a Eagles team as the one that won 10-games last year. The Ragin' Cajuns outgained them 440 to 252 (lost by double-digits despite being +2 in turnover margin).
Eagles are just 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, so the books are clearly overvaluing them of late. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take South Alabama!
|09-29-19||Patriots v. Bills +7.5||16-10||Win||100||77 h 35 m||Show|
4* NFL - Public Massacre NO-BRAINER on Bills +7½ -110
Big time value here with Buffalo as a 7.5-point dog against the Patriots. I just think we are getting a little carried away with how good the Patriots have looked early on in 2019. They whooped the Steelers at home on SNF in Week 1. I know Pitt had Big Ben, but clearly that was the same offense without AB. They got a freebie in a game against Miami, who wants nothing at all to do with winning and lastly the Jets with their 3rd string QB under center.
Bills are also 3-0, yet no one outside of Buffalo thinks this team is any kind of threat to make serious playoff run. That's probably accurate given the limited offense, but the defense the Bills got is the real deal. They had the No. 1 ranked pass D last year and have been every bit as good in that department this year.
Patriots got a lot key guys hurt right now and I think Brady and the offense struggles. IN both meetings last year and 3 of the last 4 overall, Bills have held the Pats to 25 or fewer points. I think the Bills do enough offensively to keep it within the number and maybe even win outright. Take Buffalo!
|09-29-19||Chiefs v. Lions +7||34-30||Win||100||77 h 34 m||Show|
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Lions +7 -115
Detroit is definitely worth a look at home getting a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes is the talk of the NFL. He looks even better than he did last year in his MVP season. They are one of the big public teams right now and no question the books have inflated the number here on KC.
The Lions are a 18-point blown 4th quarter lead away from being 3-0. They knocked off a good Chargers team at home and went on the road and beat the Eagles. Instead of giving Detroit credit, people just assume those teams aren't as good as they thought because they lost to the Lions.
Matt Patricia is doing a much better job than he gets credit for. Mahomes and that KC offense is going to score, but I think the Lions will be able to move the ball at will against a bad Chiefs defense that is due for a letdown after laying it all on the line against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They also aren't as good on the road when they don't have that home crowd making things so difficult on the opposing offense. Take Detroit!
|09-28-19||Houston v. North Texas -7||46-25||Loss||-110||60 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -7 -110
We are simply playing against the Cougars after what's transpired in Houston this week. Senior quarterback D'Eriq King and senior No. 2 wide out Keith Corbin have decided to use the new red-shirt rule (can red-shirt if you play 4 or fewer games) and sit out the rest of the season, so they can have another year of eligibility.
I don't know how that can be something that head coach Dana Holgorsen turns into a positive. King was their best player. A guy that was in the Heisman conversation. To have him quit on the team has to have other guys in the locker room questioning what's the point of even playing these final 8 games.
The defense was already bad and now you have to believe the offense will only regress after losing King and Corbin. North Texas will relish in the opportunity to kick an in-state rival when they are down and they got a big time talent at quarterback in Mason Fine. He should have a field day I see the Mean Green winning here in blowout fashion. Take North Texas!
|09-28-19||Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -4||13-26||Win||100||59 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Big 12 ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -4 -101
You just have to trust the books whenever you see a line like this. You have an unranked team not only laying points, but laying more than a field goal against a team in the Top 25. Simply put, Oklahoma State is favored for a reason and I 100% agree.
You have to like what Chris Klieman has done early on replacing the great Bill Snyder. They got a real impressive win on the road against a SEC West team in Mississippi State. I just think they might be getting too much credit for that win. Bulldogs are decent, but not as good as people thought coming into the year.
Oklahoma State more than showed they got the talent to hang with the big boys, as they only lost 36-30 at No. 12 Texas and were only outgained by a mere 4 yards (498-494). I just think the combination of that Cowboys offense with the crazy atmosphere at home in a night game is enough to lay the short number. Take Oklahoma State!
|09-28-19||Indiana +14.5 v. Michigan State||31-40||Win||100||114 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Indiana +14½ -110
Indiana is definitely worth a look at this price against the Spartans. Even though the Hoosiers come in off a 38-3 win and cover against UConn, no one is going to think anything of a win over UConn. People are still going to remember this team for that ugly 51-10 loss as a mere 17.5-point favorite at home against Ohio State. I just think this is the perfect time to buy low on this team, as we are going to get a big effort here from Tom Allen's team.
Since Allen has come to Indiana they have progressively got better on the defense side of the ball. Given how Michigan State's offense has struggled, I think the Hoosiers can more than hold their own on that side of the ball.
Another to keep in mind with that Ohio State loss, they didn't have starting quarterback Michael Penix. He was close to playing at UConn last week, but didn't end up going. He's still listed as questionable, but I would be shocked if he doesn't play. Even with Ramsey under center they can keep it within two touchdowns. Take Indiana!
|09-28-19||Virginia v. Notre Dame -11||Top||20-35||Win||100||114 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -11 -110
I was really impressed with the Irish in last week's loss to Georgia. The public was all over the Bulldogs in that game. While Notre Dame covered, I don't feel they did enough to sway the public back to the point they want to lay double-digits with them.
In fact, I see the public looking to grab the points with Virginia. Not only are the Cavaliers ranked No. 18 and 4-0, most will see this as a letdown game for Notre Dame. I don't. I think Virginia is getting a little too much respect. They beat Pitt by 16, but only outgained them by 53 and Pitt led 14-13 at the half. They trailed FSU 24-17 in the 4th quarter and fell behind 17-0 to Old Dominion (still trailed 17-14 going into the 4th quarter).
I just don't think the Cavaliers offense is good enough to go into a hostile environment against a good Notre Dame defense and keep pace with Ian Book and the Irish offense. Irish are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home against a team with a winning road record. Chip Kelly will have this team ready to go off the tough loss. Take Notre Dame!
|09-28-19||Central Michigan +17.5 v. Western Michigan||15-31||Win||100||110 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Central Michigan +17½ -109
I really think we are getting some great value with the Chippewas at this price. This is not just another game for these two in-state rivals. The Victory Cannon will be on the line and I think Central Michigan is more than capable of winning this game outright.
I don't get what Western Michigan has done to get this kind of respect. They got blowout wins over Mommouth and Georgia State. Their two losses are at Michigan State by a final of 51-17 and at Syracuse 52-33.
I get those are two ranked teams, but what kind of defense is that. The Spartans offense has been stagnant in all their other games and Syracuse hasn't score more than 24 in any of their other games. I got a lot more respect for Central Michigan's two losses to Power 5 teams. They got rolled 61-0 by a really good Wisconsin team and only lost 17-12 at Miami (FL).
Chippewas are down starting QB QUinten Dormady, but I like backup David Moore to play well against this poor Broncos defense. Western Michigan has already lost last year's leading wide out D'Wayne Eskridge and their do it all back LeVante Bellamy is questionable to even play. Take Central Michigan +17.5!
|09-27-19||Penn State v. Maryland +7||Top||59-0||Loss||-110||94 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +7 -110
Love the value here with the Terps as a touchdown dog against the Nittany Lions. It's not that Penn State isn't a talented team, they are extremely young and I just don't feel like they are the 12th best team in the country.
One of the more difficult thing for young/inexperienced teams is to play on the road in a hostile environment. That's where upsets happen and I think we could definitely see Maryland win this game outright. A lot of people were on the Terps after they crushed Syracuse, only to jump right off the ship after an upset loss at Temple.
I wasn't surprised to see them stumble on the road against the Owls. The Terps were feeling themselves off that big win over a ranked team and the fact that they were a Top 25 team. I really like the skill players they got on the offensive side of the ball and former Va Tech quarterback, Joshua Jackson, looks really good in this offense.
I think they are going to have a big day against a Penn State defense that isn't as good as the numbers. Nittany Lions have somehow only given up 23 points in their last 2 games, despite allowing more than 800 yards of offense. Take Maryland!
|09-26-19||Eagles +4.5 v. Packers||34-27||Win||100||12 h 58 m||Show|
3* NFL - Eagles/Packers ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eagles +4½ -110
I think we are getting a great price here on the Eagles catching over a field goal against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in at 1-2 and just lost at home to the Lions as a 4-point favorite. People are starting to second guess this team.
Packers on the other hand are 3-0 and have covered all 3. Public loves betting Aaron Rodgers and thus we get the value with Philadelphia.
Eagles are really close to being 3-0. At the same time, it's not like the Packers are dominating teams. The defense has really carried them. Rodgers and that offense look out of sync in the scheme. The other thing is we don't really know if the defense is as good as it's looked.
Haven't exactly played the best signal callers with their first 3 against Tribusky, Cousins and Flaco. They also got some key guys banged up on that side that might miss this one. I think Wentz and that Eagles offense will be able to move the ball and wouldn't be shocked if the won the game outright. Take Philadelphia!
|09-26-19||Navy +11 v. Memphis||Top||23-35||Loss||-110||70 h 21 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +11 -110
Navy is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against Memphis on Thursday Night. Midshipmen went just 3-9 last year and were a team not many people were talking about in 2019 with just 8 starters back. However, this should be a much improved team (service academies are use to not having a lot of guys back) on both sides of the ball.
They have looked great in their two games so far this season. They beat Holy Cross 45-7 as a 21.5-point favorite and East Carolina 42-10 as a 7.5-point favorite. Books weren't close with the number posted in either of those games. I think it's the same thing here.
Navy has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Memphis, including a 22-21 win as a 6.5-point dog last year. A lot of people are praising this Memphis defense cause it shutdown Ole Miss in the opener, but stopping the triple-option is not easy and all that running limits the number of possessions.
Midshipmen are 18-5 ATS last 23 as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points. Memphis is just 8-21 in their last 29 off a double-digit road win, 5-15 ATS last 20 after outgaining 2 straight teams by 125 or more yards and 0-8 ATS last 8 after gaining 525+ yards in their last two. Take Navy!
|09-22-19||Rams v. Browns +3.5||Top||20-13||Loss||-110||79 h 40 m||Show|
5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110
I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2.
I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury.
This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week.
You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland!
|09-22-19||Jets +23 v. Patriots||14-30||Win||100||71 h 18 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas Line Mistake ATS SHOCKER on Jets +23 -110
I just think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with this line. I get New England is good and they won and covered on the road as a 18-point favorite in last week's 43-0 win at Miami, but the Dolphins simply aren't trying to be competitive. The Jets are down to third string QB Luke Falk, but they are no where close to as bad as Miami. No other team is.
I know the offense was putrid in the loss the Browns on Monday Night Football, but I really like how the defense competed. I also think given how bad Trevor Siemian has been in this league and how bad he looked, Falk can't be much worse.
We know the Jets are going to give it all as against the Patriots. There's no team they want to beat more than New England. I know the Pats are the last team you expect to have a letdown, but it's gonna be hard for them to take NY seriously enough to win going away. It could be 34-13 and we are golden. I don't know that NE scores that much. Take the Jets!
|09-21-19||Oregon v. Stanford +10.5||21-6||Loss||-105||53 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +10½ -105
I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Stanford after a couple of really ugly road losses to USC and UCF. I think it has the perception on Stanford way down going into this game. They didn't have K.J. Costello in the loss at USC and I think they just didn't have any juice left for that game at UCF (long travel).
I expect a different looking Cardinal team on Saturday. That could be a big problem for the Ducks given all the hype they have been getting. Hard to imagine Oregon isn't sitting there thinking about how they are going to roll Stanford. I know they played Auburn tough in the opener, but I'm not sold on the Tigers being all that.
Stanford head coach David Shaw has been a moneymaker in this spot. With the Cardinal he's 19-9 ATS at home in the first month of the season, 35-19 ATS last 54 vs a good offensive team that's averaging 5.9 yards/play and a perfect 10-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against the spread. Take Stanford!
|09-21-19||Wyoming v. Tulsa -3||21-24||Push||0||84 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulsa -3 -111
I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well.
Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg.
I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half).
Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER!
|09-21-19||UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3||Top||45-25||Loss||-110||82 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Small Conference PLAY OF THE YEAR on Ohio -3 -110
Absolutely love Ohio here as a small 3-point home favorite against the Ragin Cajun's. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on Lafayette. Ohio didn't cover in their opener against Rhode Island, despite winning by 20+, and then lost back-to-back on the road against Pittsburgh and Marshall. Two games they were expected to lose, but nonetheless there's nothing to get you excited about with Ohio.
Key here is that this is one of Frank Solich's better teams he's had at Ohio and a lot of people have them as the best team in the MAC this year. They are going to be chomping at the bit take the field at home, where they have are 1-0 this year and 48-13 over the previous 10 seasons (12-1 since 2017).
As for Lafayette they covered against Mississippi State in the opener and followed that up with back-to-back blowout wins and covers at home against Liberty and Texas Southern. The close call against the Bulldogs looks less impressive after Miss St lost at home to K-State and that Liberty team they beat lost 24-0 to a bad Syracuse team.
Ohio lost by just 2-points last week at Marshall and that's worth noting, as the Bobcats are 12-4 ATS under Solich off a loss by 3 or less. They have also covered 16 of their last 20 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg (Lafayette +27.4 ppg). Take Ohio!
|09-21-19||Coastal Carolina v. UMass +17||62-28||Loss||-110||47 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on UMass +17 -110
I think there's more than enough value here to take a flyer on the Minutemen. Far from an easy play to stomach given UMass has not covered in any of their games and lost outright by 25 as a 5.5-point home favorite to Southern Illinois.
However, the books know the betting public will want absolutely nothing to do with this UMass team, so we can feel good about the number we are getting. I just don't feel like a road win over Kansas justifies the Chanticleers laying 3 scores on the road.
As bad as UMass is defensively, Coastal Carolina is far from an offensive juggernaut. They only put up 23 at home to E Michigan and a mere 12 in the win against the Jayhawks. Not to mention, the Chanticleers got the defending Sun Belt champs on deck in Appalachian State. Take UMass!
|09-20-19||Florida International v. Louisiana Tech -9||Top||31-43||Win||100||94 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -9 -109
This is a no-brainer for me to lay single digits at home with Louisiana Tech against the FIU Panthers. Something just isn't right with this FIU team. The Panthers are a team that was suppose to be a contender in C-USA with 16 starters back from a 9-win team. I just feel like the books are being slow to adjust.
They got embarrassed by Tulane 42-14 on the road in Week 1 and were a mere 3-point dog in that matchup. They then lost at home as a 7.5-point favorite to WKU. They finally get a win last week over New Hampshire, but only won 30-17 as a 13.5-point favorite.
The offense has not looked great, especially the passing game. Starting quarterback James Morgan, who was great for them last year is dealing with an ankle injury, but it felt like he was already losing time to backup Kaylan Wiggins. The defense has also been sub-par, especially against run.
I just don't see the Panthers being able to keep pace with J'Mar Smith and the Bulldogs offense. Smith has been playing at a high level. He had 331 yards and 2 scores against Texas, so it's hard to see FIU keeping in check.
Panthers come in averaging 307 ypg. There have been only 6 times as the head coach of the Bulldogs that Skip Holz has faced a team that averages 310 or fewer yards. Holtz and the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in this spot with an average margin of victory of 21.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech!
|09-19-19||Titans v. Jaguars +2||7-20||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
4* NFL - Titans/Jags Thurs Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jaguars +2
The betting public is all over the Titans in this one and I'm not sure why. I really like the value here with Jacksonville as a home dog. I think the Jags are undervalued for a lot of reasons. For one they are 0-2, they got embarrassed in Week 1 at home by the Chiefs and lost starting QB Nick Foles, who was their prized free agent pickup. Not to mention the recent headlines of Jalen Ramsey wanting traded.
Jacksonville was a 2-point conversion away from winning outright as a 9-point underdog at Houston in Week 2. The loss of Foles sucks, but I've liked what I've seen out of rookie Gardner Minshew. I don't know that the drop off from Foles is as big as people think. I thought Foles was more a product of the system in Philadelphia than anything.
The other thing is the Jaguars still have one of the best defenses in the league. They just got exposed by Mahomes and that potent Chiefs offense in Week 1. They were really good against Deshaun Watson last week. Titans offense is not good. They are also not the team you want to back as a road favorite. With Marcus Mariota as the starter, Tennessee is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Take Jacksonville!
|09-16-19||Browns v. Jets +3||Top||23-3||Loss||-110||122 h 37 m||Show|
5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110
I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground.
That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York!
|09-15-19||Bears v. Broncos +3||16-14||Win||100||52 h 0 m||Show|
3* NFL - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Broncos +3 -125
The public is all over the Bears as a small road favorite, but I really like Denver to knock off Chicago at home in Week 2. I get the Broncos didn't look great in that Week 1 loss at Oakland, but I think they were surprised with how well the Raiders played. I think Denver might have thought that was going to be a lot easier after AB was released.
Denver is also a very difficult place to play and a lot of these Bears players aren't use to the thin air of Mile High. I think that impacts the Bears defense and that Chicago offense looked way out of sync in Week 1 against Green Bay. Hard to win on the road if you can't score. Take Denver!
|09-15-19||Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5||Top||28-10||Loss||-110||93 h 26 m||Show|
5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110
Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama.
They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them.
Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders!
|09-14-19||Oklahoma v. UCLA +24.5||48-14||Loss||-110||32 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Prime Time PUBLIC SHOCKER on UCLA +24½ -110
No way the public is going to want anything to do with UCLA against Oklahoma. The books know this and I think we are getting exceptional value here because of it. I think the Bruins aren't just going to cover, but give the Sooners a bit of a scare.
It's not easy for midwest teams to go out west and play in a different time zone. I also think it could be hard for Oklahoma to take this UCLA team seriously after watching them start out 0-2 with losses to Cincinnati and San Diego State. More so how bad the offense has looked. With the way they are scoring, it will be hard for them to see the Bruins keeping it close.
The thing is, both Cincinnati and San Diego State are two of the better Group of 5 teams in the country. They are also two teams built around their defense. Oklahoma is trying to get better on defense, but I don't think they are quite there. Chip Kelly is too good an offensive coach to not get that offense producing.
Sooners are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a SU win by 20+ points. Take UCLA!
|09-14-19||Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14.5||Top||40-21||Loss||-105||103 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +14½ -105
Absolutely love the value here with Tulsa as a two touchdown dog at home against the Cowboys. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Golden Hurricane to start out 2019. Tulsa kept it closer than just about everyone expected in a 28-7 loss at Michigan State in Week 1 as a 23.5-point dog.
Instead of giving the Golden Hurricane's defense for going on the road and holding the Spartans to 28 points and just 303 total yards, they just wrote it off as Michigan State's offense being bad. That kinda doesn't work after watching the Spartans put up 51 points and 582 yards in a 34-point win at home against Western Michigan.
Tulsa's defense wasn't spectacular at San Jose State last week, but that second straight game on the road is always tough, plus it was a huge sandwich spot. Teams that can keep Oklahoma State's offense from getting into a rhythm tend to have a lot of success against them. Should be a rowdy crowd, as this is also their home opener. Outright win is definitely a possibility. Take Tulsa!
|09-14-19||USC v. BYU +4||27-30||Win||100||69 h 0 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Big Money HEAVY HITTER on BYU +4 -105
BYU is worth a look here as a home dog against the Trojans. It didn't take long for USC to go from being undervalued to overvalued. While the Trojans are off a 45-20 beating of Stanford, they did just lose their starting QB in JT Daniels to a season-ending injury. Not to mention the Stanford team they beat didn't have K.J. Costello.
Kedon Slovis' big day against the Cardinal is a big reason why people are back on the USC bandwagon. He lit up Stanford's defense for 377 yards and 3 scores. It was a great game, but he was also just 6 of 8 for 57 yards and a pick in a half against Fresno State.
I think Slovis is going to struggle to come anywhere close to those numbers against Stanford in his first true road game. BYU's defense is no pushover and are definitely battle tested having opened up the season against Utah and Tennessee.
Trojans are just 7-15 ATS under head coach Clay Helton as a favorite, 1-8 ATS last 9 non-conference matchups and 3-9-1 ATS last 13 on the road. Take BYU!
|09-14-19||Maryland v. Temple +7.5||17-20||Win||100||99 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Temple +7½ -110
Now is the perfect time to fade Maryland. The public was against the Terps last week at home against a ranked Syracuse team. Maryland went on to win 63-20 and now everyone is on the Terps. Even the polls jumped on board and put this team at No. 21 in the country.
I'm not saying Maryland isn't better than expected, but they should be laying this kind of a number on the road against a good program like Temple. The Owls are in the first year under Rod Carey, who came over after a successful stint at Northern Illinois. Carey took over a team that brought back 14 starters from a team that won 8 games.
I also think people underestimate the value of an early bye. Temple basically got to play an exhibition against Bucknell in Week 1 and then spend two weeks fixing what needed fixed. There's also going to be a little extra fire with Temple being a home dog and hearing all this hype around this Maryland team. Take the Owls!
|09-14-19||Ohio State v. Indiana +17||51-10||Loss||-105||65 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +17 -105
I just can't pass up Indiana at this price at home against the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers have been a thorn in the side of Ohio State for years now. Something that might surprise a lot of people given the talent gap between the two and the fact that Ohio State has won the last 24 meetings.
Indiana has covered 7 of the last 8 in the series. The only game they didn't cover they should have. Hoosiers ended up losing 49-21 as a 20-point dog in 2017, despite having a 21-20 lead in the 2nd half!
Indiana is also always gonna be undervalued as long as they are in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. No one is ever picking this team to win the East. Thing is, Tom Allen has really got them competitive and finally made them respectable on the defensive side of the ball.
I think that defense could give Fields and the Buckeyes offense some problems here, as they are going to feed off the energy of the home fans. I also think Hoosiers QB Michael Penix is on his way to being a star in this league. Take Indiana!
|09-13-19||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5||18-24||Win||100||47 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - UNC/WF Friday Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest -2½ -110
It's been quite a start for the Tar Heels in the first year with Mack Brown back as head coach. UNC knocked off South Carolina 24-20 as a 11.5-point underdog in Week 1 and then upset Miami 28-25 as a 4-point home dog in Week 2. I believe it has the Tar Heels overvalued here as a mere 2.5-point road dog against the Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest has started out 2-0 and this looks like one of the better teams they have had under Dave Clawson. I really like junior QB Jamie Newman and he's got some talented wide outs at his disposal. Newman will take on a Tar Heels secondary that will be without starting corner Patrice Rene.
As for the UNC offene, it's been a great start for true freshman QB Sam Howell, but I could see him struggling here. This is the first true road game for the Tar Heels and Howell will have to make do without starting center Nick Polino. Take Wake Forest!
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers -6.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-109||60 h 40 m||Show|
5* NFL - Bucs/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers -6½ -109
I really like the Panthers to lay it on the Bucs tonight. While both teams are coming off a loss at home in Week 1, Carolina lost to the reigning NFC champs in the Rams, while Tampa Bay lost to the 49ers.
The big thing the Bucs were hoping for when they hired Bruce Arians was his ability to get Jameis Winston to finally play up to his potential. That hope didn't last long, as Winston threw for fewer than 200 yards and had 3 interceptions (two pick sixes) at home against a 49ers defense that only had 2 picks all of last year.
I don't think it's going to get any better for Winston against the Panthers. Carolina's defense played pretty well against the Rams in Week 1. They gave up 30 points, but did hold the Rams to just 349 yards and just 4.6 yards/play.
No player is going to be more motivated to go against Winston than new Carolina defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who prior to this year had only played for Tampa. Bucs basically said he was washed up. Not only do I think McCoy shows out against his old team, but I like the entire Panthers defense to play inspired for their new teammate.
Lastly, you have to factor in the huge advantage the home team has playing in these Thursday games on just 3-days of rest. Take Carolina!
|09-09-19||Texans +7 v. Saints||Top||28-30||Win||100||133 h 33 m||Show|
5* NFL - Texans/Saints MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans +7 -106
I absolutely love the the value here with Houston. The betting public loves Drew Brees and the Saints and will almost back them no matter what at home, especially in a prime time game like this. New Orleans is definitely a top tier team in the NFC, but no way should they be laying a touchdown in Week 1 to a very talented Texans team.
It's almost like people forget how good Houston was last year. The Texans won the AFC South at 11-5 and yet were being picked by many to finish as low as 3rd in the division. DeShaun Watson had a big year that got overlooked with all the Mahomes/Goff hype.
I know they just lost a great defensive player in Jadeveon Clowney, but in the process they made a huge upgrade on the offensive line by adding in Laremy Tunsil. If they can get better play up front, look out. Watson threw for over 4,000 yards with a 26-9 TD-INT ratio, despite being sacked 62 times (most since 2006).
The defense also still has an elite player in J.J. Watt, who is coming off a 16 sack season. It feels like forever since he's been this healthy coming into a season. I'm not saying they are going to stop Brees and the Saints, but I think they can do enough to keep this close and cash in a cover. Take Houston!
|09-08-19||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||Top||3-33||Loss||-110||130 h 8 m||Show|
5* NFL - Pats/Steelers Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +6 -110
I love the points with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers head to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England is the only team that no matter what happens in the offseason, it's just assumed they are going to be good.
I expect the Patriots to be a threat in the AFC, but at least for now Tom Brady doesn't have Gronk. I know his play had declined some in the last couple of years, but Brady's numbers were drastically better with him on the field. I could definitely see that offense struggling early and it's not uncommon for the Pats to not look their best in the first couple weeks of the season.
Pittsburgh is a team that I think people are kinda sleeping on. The Steelers losing both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a lot to do with that. However, they showed they didn't need Bell last year and after the last month or so, I think Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to not have that headache in Brown. I think the offense won't miss a beat with Big Ben under center and that defense has a lot of talented young players. Take Pittsburgh!
|09-08-19||Titans +6 v. Browns||43-13||Win||100||123 h 51 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans +6 -110
There's a ton of hype around Cleveland this year and I think it has them a bit overvalued here in Week 1 against the Titans. Tennessee doesn't wow you, but they are modeling themselves after the Patriots under head coach Mike Vrabel.
Much like when Belichick first put NE on the map, the strength of the Titans is their defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense (333.4 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (18.9 ppg) last year. They also figure to once again have one of the leagues best run games behind Derrick Henry. Ball control and ball security is what I think of with Tennessee.
I think the Titans can play keep away enough to disrupt the rhythm of the Browns and offense. I think this is going to be a one-score game and wouldn't be shocked if the Titans pulled off the upset. Take Tennessee!
|09-08-19||Chiefs v. Jaguars +4||40-26||Loss||-110||102 h 24 m||Show|
3* NFL - Chiefs/Jaguars ATS DESTROYER on Jaguars +4 -110
There's all kinds of hype around this Kansas City team and the offensive firepower they figure to have behind reigning MVP Pat Mahomes. No question the Chiefs will be one of the top scoring teams in 2019, but this Jacksonville defense is no joke.
I think the Jaguars added another stud on this side of the ball in Josh Allen. This might be the best defense in the league. They were No. 2 in the NFL against the pass last year. While they lost 30-14 at KC last year, they actually held Mahomes without a TD pass and intercepted him twice. Problem for the Jags is Blake Bortles and the offense had 5 turnovers.
No more Bortles to screw things up for the Jags, as they went out and signed Nick Foles to a big deal. While I don't know if Foles will ever be as good as that playoff run a couple years back, there's no question he's an upgrade over Bortles. Chiefs defense may be improved, but it's still middle of the pack at best. I think the Jags win this one. Take Jacksonville!
|09-07-19||Tulsa -6 v. San Jose State||34-16||Win||100||87 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Tulsa -6 -110
I really like this spot for the Golden Hurricane. I look for Tulsa to have zero problem securing a win and cover at San Jose State on Saturday.
Tulsa lost their opener 28-7 at Michigan State, but that was to be expected. Golden Hurricane covered in the loss as a 24-point dog. I'm not worried about the fact that they had just 7 points and 80 total yards. That's not a good Spartans defense, it's elite this year.
At the same time the Tulsa defense more than held their own against Michigan State, limiting them to just 303 yards and 2.7 yards/carry on the ground. Keep in mind Tulsa brought back 8 starters from a defense that went from giving up 37.5 in 2017 to allowing just 29.6 ppg last year.
San Jose State beat Northern Colorado 35-18 and while they won by 17, it was too close for comfort against a FCS opponent. Northern Colorado was just 2-9 last year and didn't play a single FBS team. Spartans are now 1-7 ATS last 8 non-conference.
Golden Hurricane have covered 12 of their last 15 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Tulsa!
|09-07-19||Nevada +24.5 v. Oregon||Top||6-77||Loss||-110||106 h 38 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on Nevada +24½ -110
Even though the Ducks came up short in their Week 1 loss at Auburn, I think a lot of people were impressed with how well Oregon hung around with the Tigers. This is also a team that was getting a ton of hype preseason because of quarterback Justin Herbert.
I believe it has the Ducks way overvalued here at home against Nevada. This far from an easy spot for Oregon, who still has to be licking their wounds from that meltdown against Auburn. The Ducks led 21-6 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and gave up the game-winning TD with 9 seconds left on a 26-yard pass by a true freshmen.
Nevada on the other hand comes in off a thrilling 34-31 win at home over Purdue. The Wolf Pack trailed 31-14 in the 2nd half. They tied it at 31-31 with less than a minute to play and won the game on a 56-yard field on the last play of the game.
I don't think Nevada is capable of winning this game on the road, but I do think the Wolf Pack have the offensive fire-power to easily cover the number here. Take Nevada +24.5!
|09-07-19||Arkansas +7 v. Ole Miss||17-31||Loss||-110||85 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Ole Miss/Ark SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas +7 -110
I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a decently priced road dog against the Rebels. I think Arkansas is a team flying under the radar after going just 2-10 in 2019. This is now year two under head coach Chad Morris and I expect big improvement. We saw it as his last job (SMU).
His first year Mustangs were just 2-10 SU. Next year they were 5-7, but most importantly a dominant 8-4 ATS (5-1 ATS on the road). I think this Arkansas team is going to be a similar covering machine.
I know the Razorbacks didn't look great in their win over Portland State in Week 1, but I think a lot of that was simply knowing they were the superior team and having their conference opener on deck. Neither of their transfer QBs played great in Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel, but I'm confident in their ability.
As for Ole Miss, they played Memphis tough on the road, but came up painfully short in a 15-10 loss. That's not an easy kind of loss to bounce back from. They were also lucky for it to be that close. Memphis outgained them 364 to 173. Ole Miss had fewer than 100 yards both passing and rushing. No way should this team be laying more than a field goal at home against another SEC team. Take Arkansas!
|09-07-19||Central Florida -9.5 v. Florida Atlantic||48-14||Win||100||84 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Central Florida -9½ -110
I look for UCF to have no problem here beating FAU by at least two touchdowns. I think the Owls are getting a little too much love here after covering a big number at Ohio State last week. FAU only had 228 total yards in that game and were fortunate to only lose by just 24 after falling behind 28-0 less than 10 minutes into the game.
I like Lane Kiffin and that team should be competitive in C-USA, but there's a much bigger gap in talent between FAU and UCF than the number here would suggest. While the Knights are ranked No. 18, it doesn't feel like there's as much hype with this year's team. No one is going to get excited about them beating Florida A&M 62-0.
I just think they got too much offense for the Owls to keep it close. No Mckenzie Milton, no problem. The duo of Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush and true freshman Dillon Gabriel threw for 295 yards and 5 scores.
These two teams played last year at Central Florida. The Knights won that contest 56-36. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the final score was something similar.
FAU is now just 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference games and 0-5 ATS last 5 games in the month of September. Knights are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 after a win by 20 or more and 4-1 last 5 vs a team from C-USA. Take UCF!
|09-07-19||Texas A&M v. Clemson -17||10-24||Loss||-105||56 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/Clemson BIG GAME ATS WINNER on Clemson -17 -105
The betting public is all over the Aggies here. The narrative going into this one is how Texas A&M played Clemson better than anyone last year and will want revenge. The Aggies also looked good in their 41-7 win over Texas State last week.
On the Tigers side of things, they made easy work of Georgia Tech with a 52-14 win, but Trevor Lawrence didn't play well. Lawrence had 2 picks and was just 13 of 23 for 168 yards. I'm not reading anything into that. No way was Clemson the least bit threatened by the Yellow Jackets.
I think the Tigers simply went through the motions and were trying to be as conservative as they could offensively to not put too much on tape for the Aggies. I just think this is an elite offense and will have zero problem moving the ball against Texas A&M.
One thing people have to remember with last year's close call, is that was in College Station. Texas A&M was just 1-3 on the road last year and are just 18-38 ATS last 56 as a road dog and 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more.
Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 35+ ppg the previous year and were up by 17 or more at the half in their last game are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Clemson -17!
|09-06-19||Marshall v. Boise State -10.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-106||83 h 58 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - 'Group of 5' Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State -10½ -106
I like this Marshall team and could see them being a force in Conference USA this year, but I think Boise State is on a different level. I not only think the Broncos win at home Friday night over the Thundering Herd, I think they do so with ease.
You never really know what you are going to get from a true freshman quarterback until they play in a game. I don't think there's many concerns lingering for Boise State's Hank Bachmeier. The true freshmen threw for 407 yards on 30 of 51 passing in Week 1 and did it on the road against a Power 5 opponent in FSU. Even more impressive is he guided his team back from a 31-13 deficit.
Marshall only gave up 21.8 ppg and 339 ypg, but a lot of that is playing in C-USA. They gave up 37 points and 502 yards to NC State and 41 points and 454 yards to Va Tech. I think Boise will have no problem scoring 35+ here and I like the Broncos defense to keep Marshall to 20 or fewer, giving us plenty of breathing room to cash in a cover.
Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after giving up 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game and are 11-2 ATS last 13 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Boise State!
|09-02-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5||35-17||Win||100||20 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Notre Dame/Louisville ATS DESTROYER on Louisville +18½ -110
I think it's worth a shot to back the Cardinals as a three score dog against Notre Dame. While the Irish will have Ian Book back from last year's 12-1 playoff team, the defense loses a lot.
Notre Dame has to replace 3 NFL draft picks on that side of the ball and if not for the defense they would have never sniffed the playoffs. The Irish had 5 wins last year where they failed to score 25 or more points. They were a perfect 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Thats a big arrow pointing for regression in 2019.
The other big thing is I think people are sleeping on Louisville. I absolutely loved the hire of Scott Satterfield from Appalachian State. He brought over his DC,Bryan Brown and I think he does wonders here with the Cardinals defense.
The big thing I think people are overlooking is that the team quit on head coach Bobby Petrino, which is why the numbers were so bad across the board for this team. A lot more talent on the roster than you think and they got 16 returning starters. Take Louisville!
|09-01-19||Houston v. Oklahoma -21.5||Top||31-49||Loss||-115||152 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Houston/Oklahoma ATS HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma -21½ -115
I got no problem laying the points with Oklahoma. I think the betting public is going to be all over Houston given the hype around this team with Dana Holgorsen leaving West Virginia to take over. Holgorsen is known for his ability to get a lot out of the QB position and the Cougars have a good one in D'Eriq King.
However, Houston is out-classed big time in this one. I get Baker Mayfield and Kylar Murray were big time talents, but their success is 100% a result of Lincoln Riley's brilliant offensive mind. No reason not to expect this offense to be potent with Jalen Hurts running the show.
I also think Oklahoma's defense will be greatly improved under coordinator Alex Grinch. Houston on the other hand lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. Sooners are going to score at will and I just don't see Houston being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma!
|08-31-19||SMU v. Arkansas State -2||37-30||Loss||-109||101 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas State -2 -109
I think this is a great price to back Arkansas State at home against SMU. I think a lot of people see a team from the Sun Belt as a small favorite against a team from a bigger conference and look to take the other side.
This is a really talented Red Wolves team behind a underrated head coach in Blake Anderson. Last year they won 8-games with just 12 starters back, so no concern with only 13 starters returning in 2019. The defense should be really good and that's the difference maker here.
SMU does not have a great defense. They have allowed 35+ ppg each of the last 5 seasons. I just think Arkansas State will be able to get more stops and thus create some separation. SMU is also a team you want to fade away from home. Mustangs are just 2-8 last 10 ATS on the road. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference and 0-5 ATS last 5 games played in August. Take Arkansas State!
|08-31-19||Ball State +17 v. Indiana||24-34||Win||100||123 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Ball State +17 +100
Ball State is coming off a 4-8 campaign and aren't being given much of a shot at improving after starting quarterback Riley Neal and leading rusher Justin Gilbert both transferred to Power 5 programs.
It think it has the Cardinals way undervalued coming into 2019. Even with the losses of Neal and Gilbert, Ball State will be one of the most experienced teams in the country this year. They still bring back 17 starters and 55 lettermen.
This team was really hurt by injuries, which led to a poor finish. Ball State went on the road and only lost by a final score of 24-16 at Notre Dame, who finished the year 12-0 and made the playoffs. You don't do that without some talent. I also think there was a good chance that both Gilbert and Neal were going to lose their jobs.
Indiana has been competitive under Tom Allen, but have also gone just 5-7 in each of his first two years. The Hoosiers did beat Ball State at home by 28 last year, but only outgained the Cardinals by a little more than 100 yards.
This year the game is on a neutral site at Lucas Oil Stadium. I'll take the points with the underrated dog in this in-state rivalry. Cardinals have covered 6 of the last 7 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take Ball State!
|08-31-19||Ole Miss +6.5 v. Memphis||Top||10-15||Win||100||123 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +6½ -110
I think we are going to look back at this line later in the season and wonder what the heck were the books thinking making Ole Miss a dog against a non-Power 5 opponent. Especially one as talented as the Rebels.
Ole Miss struggled in SEC play last year, but this team went 4-0 in non-conference. The most impressive non-conference win came in Week 1, as they rolled Texas Tech 47-27 as a 2-point dog.
I know the record doesn't exactly reflect it, but there's a ton of talent on this Ole Miss roster and I love the two new coordinators they brought in to get the most of the talent on hand. Rich Rodriguez is new OC and Mike MacIntyre is the new DC. Two guys maybe didn't have the best run as head coaches, but are coaching what they know best in Oxford.
Not to take anything away from Memphis, who has been one of the better Group of 5 programs the last 5 years, but I think they are outclassed. Keep in mind they got annihilated 65-33 by Missouri out of the SEC last year. I just don't see the Tigers winning here by a touchdown and will certainly have some money line action on the Rebels. Take Ole Miss!
|08-31-19||Boise State +5.5 v. Florida State||36-31||Win||100||93 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Situational ATS SHOCKER on Boise State +5½ -109
Willie Taggart's first season at Florida State was a disaster from the start. The Seminoles who were ranked in the Top 20 to start the year, finished 5-7 and for the first time in forever they didn't make a bowl.
No disrespect to Taggart, but I don't see him being on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. It reminds me a lot of when Texas moved on from Mac Brown and people assumed Charlie Strong would get them back on track.
I just have a lot more trust in Boise State to start the season. The Broncos lose a great quarterback in Brett Rypien, but they also add in their highest recruited QB in school history in Hank Bachmeier. They also have a top tier defense that like FSU has NFL talent on that side of the ball.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Broncos won this game outright. Either way they are 11-2 ATS in the 13 games they have been listed as a dog under head coach Bryan Harsin. Take Boise State!
|08-30-19||Rice +23.5 v. Army||Top||7-14||Win||100||105 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Friday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Rice +23½ -104
Not only is Army being overvalued coming off their 11-win season in 2018, but this also an awful spot for a blowout.
The Black Knights have been a force under Jeff Monkin the last few years. They are 29-10 the last 3 seasons. Rice has 19 wins over the last 5 with a mere 5-31 mark the last 3 seasons. Easy to see how we get an inflated number.
Rice is now in year two under head coach Mike Bloomgren and I look for the former Stanford OC to have the Owls improved across the board in 2019. Getting all this extra time to prepare for the triple-option is huge.
As for the bad spot, no way does Army not look ahead to next week's game at Michigan. They have to be thinking the less they can put on tape for the Wolverines the better and it should also lead to starters getting pulled a little earlier in the 2nd half if things do get out of hand, opening up for a backdoor cover. Either way I like the Owls to keep this within the number. Take Rice!
|08-29-19||Florida International v. Tulane -2||14-42||Win||100||51 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Tulane -2 -103
Love the value here with Tulane as a small home favorite against the Panthers. While I got a lot of respect for Butch Davis and what he's doing at FIU, there's a definite talent gap here.
I also think the Green Wave are in a lot better spot than people realise. Tulane has really come on strong under current head coach Willie Fritz. He took over a team that was simply not competitive and has guided them from 4 to 5 to 7 wins the last 3 years. They made only their second bowl game since 2002 last year.
All signs point to the 2019 Green Wave being the best team yet under Fritz. That triple-option is tough to prepare for and they are adding a little more up-tempo to that this year. The defense is one of the better units in a pretty strong American Athletic Conference.
I look for Tulane to really dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and when you add in home field advantage, this is no-brainer. Take Tulane -2!
|08-29-19||UCLA v. Cincinnati -2.5||Top||14-24||Win||100||34 h 54 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - No Limit Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2½ -105
I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati laying less than a field goal at home. These two met in last year's season opener and the Bearcats won outright 26-17 as a 14-point dog.
While UCLA will be improved in year two under Chip Kelly, I still think they are a year or two away recruiting wise before he can really get this program back near the top of the Pac-12. Let's also not forget that Luke Fickell is now in year 3 at Cincinnati and this is the year it typically all comes together for new coaches.
Fickell has 14 returning starters, including a really talented sophomore quarterback in Desmond Ridders. The offense is going to be good and there are still major concerns with UCLA's defense. Fickell, who was the DC at Ohio State will have the defense ready. Bearcats went from allowing 31.8 ppg in his first year to only giving up 17.2 ppg. They also shaved 100+ yards/game off what they allowed.
You also have to factor in how hard it is to play on the road early in the season, especially the opener. Not to mention that when the Bearcats' put out a decent team, Nippert Stadium turns into one of the more tougher places to play. Take Cincinnati!
|08-24-19||Villanova v. Colgate -4||Top||34-14||Loss||-109||2 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Villanova/Colgate (FCS) TOP PLAY on Colgate -4 -109
Most are going to simply focus on the two FBS matchups between Florida/Miami and Arizona/Hawaii, but the real value on this first Saturday of college football is at the FCS level. I absolutely love Colgate as a small home favorite.
This Raiders team is the real deal. They got a lot of talent back on a defense that was outstanding in 2018. They held 5 different teams scoreless last year. They got back their QB in Grant Breneman (Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year) and ranked #13 in the FCS Poll.
Villanova is being picked to finish in the bottom half of the CAA. They got no shot here of keeping this within a touchdown. Take Colgate!
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||49 h 24 m||Show|
5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams +
I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls.
Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald.
Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted.
I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles!
|01-13-19||Chargers +4 v. Patriots||Top||28-41||Loss||-106||51 h 41 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +
I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread.
Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly.
The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Cowboys v. Rams -7||22-30||Win||100||34 h 51 m||Show|
3* NFL Saturday (Cowboys/Rams) HEAVY HITTER on Rams -
It's been quite a run for these Cowboys since they made the trade for Amari Cooper, but I think they are going to have a very tough time keeping it respectable against LA on Saturday. For me it's all about the matchup.
Dallas has a strong pass rush and is good at stopping the run. That's great against a team like Seattle, who to their own demise ran the ball way too much last week. When the Seahawks were forced to pass they did so with relative ease and I think had they gone to it earlier they would have won.
The Rams aren't going to try to pound the rock against this defense, even with an elite back like Todd Gurley. Sean McVay is too smart and will be quick to attack a very vulnerable Cowboys secondary. Gurley will still get his touches, just more in the passing game.
Another thing with the Dallas defense is they weren't nearly as good on the road. Cowboys allowed only 327 ypg on the season, yet gave up 368 ypg on the road, which tells you how different the story was for this defense depending on the venue.
I also think people see that the Rams are giving up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and assume the Cowboys will be able to run the ball with ease. A lot of that has to do with LA playing a bunch of games where they had big leads and were playing more a prevent defense, which will give up big yards on the ground. Donald and Suh will be difference makers and I don't buy for a second that Dak Prescott can have the kind of game to go score for score with the Rams. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||13-31||Win||100||30 h 11 m||Show|
4* NFL Saturday (Colts/Chiefs) VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -
I really like the value here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home against the Colts. Even though the Chiefs arguably have the best quarterback in the league and the likely MVP, the public is on Andrew Luck and Indy in this one.
While the Chiefs missed out on a couple opportunities to clinch the AFC West and No. 1 seed in the final few weeks, it may have been for the best. I would have been a lot more concerned with this team if they had clinched the No. 1 seed in Week 15 and had the last couple weeks mean nothing and them basically going into this game not having played a meaningful game in almost a month.
The bottom line is they earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and while Andy Reid and the Chiefs don't have the best postseason history, none of that matters with No. 15 at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is special and the inability to score has been the biggest downfall in a lot of recent home losses for KC.
Last year they were held to 21 points and shutout in the 2nd half of a 22-21 loss and in 2016 they fell 18-16 to the Steelers in the Divisional Round. Scoring won't be a problem. The Chiefs at least 26 points in every game and as bad as the defense has been on paper, there's no debate that they are a completely different defense at home.
I know the Chiefs didn't know exactly who they would face, but Andy Reid with multiple weeks to prepare for a game has been nearly unbeatable. I just think all the factors here heavily favor not just a KC win, but a comfortable victory on Saturday. Take Kansas City!
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||16-44||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
3* Clemson/Alabama ATS Winner on Clemson +
I'm not convinced Alabama is the better team in this matchup. I think Clemson is every bit on the same level as the Crimson Tide. However, I think the public perception all season has been this Alabama team is the best Nick Saban has fielded since he took over and there's no team that can hang with them.
I think that's definitely playing into this inflated number that the Crimson Tide are being asked to lay. This is now the 4th straight time that these two teams have met i the playoffs. While Alabama is 2-1 SU, Clemson is 2-1 ATS.
Not only do I see a ton of value with Clemson getting almost a touchdown, I like how the Tigers matchup with Alabama. I think this game will come down to which defense can impose it's will the most and I think with that defensive line of the Tigers, they will be the ones who control this game. Take Clemson!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||78 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens -
This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards.
The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games.
I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore!
|01-05-19||Seahawks +2 v. Cowboys||22-24||Push||0||61 h 58 m||Show|
4* NFL Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +
I really like Seattle to go into Dallas and get a win, as I think they are the better team. I just think the Seahawks have been flying way under the radar. This is a team that lost a lot of big names on defense and were expected by many to be the 3rd best team in their own division.
Despite having an elite quarterback in Russell Wilson, Seattle has transformed their style of play back to a more physical ground and pound team. The Seahawks led the league in rushing at 160 ypg and with opposing teams having to focus so much on the run, Wilson has a 35-7 TD-INT ratio and his 65.6% completion rate is his best since 2015.
Sure, Dallas is a great story with how they turned around their season after the trade for Amari Cooper. I'm not saying Cooper doesn't make them a better team, I just think they aren't as good as you think. Dallas took advantage of a bad NFC East (5-1 division record).
More than anything, I don't trust Dak Prescott to make the big plays when it matters the most in the 4th quarter. I also think that ability Dallas' defense has of putting pressure on the quarterback is negated with how mobile Wilson is and their ability to run the ball. Take Seattle!
|01-01-19||Washington +7 v. Ohio State||23-28||Win||100||419 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Rose Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Washington +
I just don't see the Buckeyes being that much better than the Huskies. Ohio State is getting all kinds of love because of how they finished the year, absolutely destroying rival Michigan at home to win the Big Ten East and then crushing Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. All of that is great, but it didn't get the Buckeyes into the playoffs.
Playing on New Year's Day is great, but in Columbus their expectation is to win it all every year and they certainly thought this year's team was capable of a championship. I just think this is a bit of a letdown for the Buckeyes. Plus you got all the distractions with Urban Meyer stepping down as head coach.
Even with all that, no one is picking the Huskies to cover, let along win the game. Washington didn't quite live up to the hype this season, but I think they are going to relish the opportunity to play an elite team like the Buckeyes and use it as a measuring stick going into next year. The Huskies have the defense to keep Haskins and that high-powered Ohio State offense in check and this Buckeyes defense has been vulnerable. This is simply too many points. Take Washington!
|01-01-19||LSU v. Central Florida +7.5||Top||40-32||Loss||-105||433 h 20 m||Show|
5* College Football BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Florida +
Time after time these Group of 5 teams that earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl show big time value in their bowl game. The perception that I think people have is that these teams aren't as good as people think because they don't play in a Power 5 Conference and will be no match against a top tier team from one of those conferences.
This is not only not true, but it also gives these small conference schools a ton of motivation to prove people wrong. On the flip side of this, I think it's hard for the Power 5 teams they are playing to give them the respect they deserve.
UCF will be without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton, but are in good shape with Darriel Mack Jr. They guy led the team from a double-digit deficit to defeat Memphis 56-41 in the American title game. All he did is throw for 348 yards 2 touchdowns, while rushing for 59 yards and 4 scores.
I'm not saying they are going to win the game, but I think they got more than enough offense to do so and I'm confident that if they do lose it will be by a touchdown or less. Take UCF!
|12-31-18||Michigan State +2 v. Oregon||6-7||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF RedBox Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State +
No one wants anything to do with backing this Spartans team with how they struggle to score against a NFL-caliber quarterback in Oregon's Justin Herbert. I believe it's created big time value here with Michigan State.
I think you could argue that the Spartans are the more talented team, have the better coach and play in the tougher conference. The one thing Oregon has an edge in is quarterback. I just don't think it's enough given the matchup.
Michigan State has faced the likes of Trace McSorely, Dwayne Haskins and Shea Patterson in the Big Ten. They aren't going to be the least bit intimidated by the Ducks. Those that think it will be easy for Oregon to move the ball are wrong.
The key here is while Oregon's defense has improved over the last couple of years, this is a defense that a limited Michigan State offense can have success against. All the players have been hearing is how bad the offense is. I would expect them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and surprise some people. The most important thing is they should be able to run the football. It might not be pretty, but I'm confident the Spartans win this one outright. Take Michigan State!
|12-31-18||Virginia Tech +7 v. Cincinnati||31-35||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Military Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Va Tech +
I really like the value here with the Hokies getting a touchdown against the Bearcats. Virginia Tech showed they wanted to be in a bowl game by winning their final two games after a 4-6 start. Few teams were hit harder with injuries this year and not many were as young and inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball.
The month between off to prepare and get guys healthy will pay off big for Bud Foster's defense and I'm confident they will be able to slow down a pretty average Cincinnati offense. The Bearcats only averaged 25.3 ppg on the road. I also think Cincinnati is no where close to as good as people think. They won 10-games, but the schedule couldn't have been much easier. It's also worth noting the Bearcats are a mere 2-7 ATS last 9 bowl games. Take Virginia Tech!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-103||53 h 38 m||Show|
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -
Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers.
You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend.
While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field.
Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota!