4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER

I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. 

San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER!

5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER 

I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener.

The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. 

OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/UNDER Total DOMINATOR on Jazz UNDER

The Timberwolves should be one of the more improved defensive teams this season. They added in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Jeff Teague to pair with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive first guy and after not playing well on that side of the ball against the Spurs in the opener, I expect a strong showing at home against the Jazz. 

Utah is also the ideal teal for a team to go up against when you want to a low-scoring affair. The Jazz don't play at a frantic pace and are very strong defensively with the best rim protector in the game in Gobert. They allowed the fewest points in the league last year, giving up just 96.8 ppg and were on point in their opener, allowing just 96 to a very good Denver team that wants to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the T-Wolves last 30 games against a division opponent and 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against the Jazz. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER

Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. 

Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. 

History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons OVER

Washington combined for 235 points with the 76ers in their home opener and I see another high-scoring game against Detroit at home tonight. The Wizards are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and may also be without his backup in Jason smith, who left the last game with a shoulder injury. They don't have a lot of other options outside of moving Kelly Oubre Jr. into the 4, which becomes a much more uptempo offense in their version of 'small ball' 

Detroit held the Hornets to just 90 points in their opener, but Charlotte was down 3 key players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Michael-Carter Williams. While that aided their defense, the Pistons offense was sharp, connecting on 43% from the field. They are more than capable of running with the Wizards. Both teams should easily get to 100 points and have this finishing closer to 220. Take the OVER! 

5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER

This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. 

I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. 

There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER

I think we are going to see a ton off offense and very little defense in the first of ESPN's double-header on Wednesday. The Wizards were 5th in the league last year at 109.2 ppg and should be every bit as explosive with their core back. Washington's defense wasn't great, giving up 107.4 ppg and I look for them to have their hands full against what many believe will be one of the most improved teams in the league. 

The 76ers not only have a healthy Embiid, but they get last year's No. 1 pick Ben Simmons after he didn't play at all last season, plus add in this year's No. 1 pick in Markelle Fultz. Not to mention a sneaky good free agent signing in sharpshooter J.J. Redick from the Clippers. When healthy, this is one of the deeper teams in the league and I expect them to look to push the pace with Simmons and Fultz.

While they could develop into a decent defensive team, that's going to take some time and probably won't be for a season or two, as they are so young and don't have a lot of chemistry together. Both teams should score well over a 100 points in this one. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pistons UNDER

Both the Pistons and Hornets figure to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both teams are going to rely heavily on the defense this season. Charlotte went out an added Dwight Howard, who needs the game to be played at a slow pace to be a serious factor. The projected starting 5 lacks scoring outside of point guard Kemba Walker. 

Detroit's not much different, as they are built around big man Andre Drummond. The Pistons also added one of the premier perimeter defenders in Avery Bradley, who I'm sure will be matched up with Walker. Detroit ranked 26th in scoring last year and I don't see any reason to expect them to be much better. Both were Top 15 in scoring defense and while today's NBA features a lot more high-scoring games, I think we see a defensive battle here in the opener, which is also the first game in Detroit's new arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* Rockets/Warriors Opening Night TOTAL DESTROYER on Warriors UNDER

I like the value here with the massive total for Tuesday's opener between the Warriors and Rockets. These two teams were offensive juggernauts last year, but I just don't see this being a shootout. While the Warriors have basically the same team back from last year, Houston has added a huge new piece to the puzzle in point guard Chris Paul. 

The addition of Paul should make the Rockets a better team, but I think it's going to take some time for this team to find their chemistry. Last year James Harden dominated the ball and the offense ran completely through him. Paul is a similar type of player, who is at his best when the ball is in his hands. It's going to take some time for them to figure it out. 

Golden State's offense will be tough to stop, but this Houston team is as talented and deep as you will find and we can bank on the Rockets giving everything they have here against the defending champs and favorites to win it all this year. As for the Warriors, I think there's enough distractions here with the ring ceremony that we see a them come out less than 100% focused. Houston also added a couple of defensive minded players in P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who give them a better shot at slowing down Durant, plus you now have Paul guarding Curry. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER

After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 Annihilator on OVER

Each of the first two games have flirted right on the number with Game 1 just squeaking OVER and Game 2 staying UNDER. Both games we got next to nothing from Boston's offense and still almost hit our mark. I know this series is all but over, but I don't expect the Celtics to go down without a fight here. I also think that we could see the Cavs relax a bit defensively given how easy it's been so far in the series and that Boston will be without their best player in Thomas. As for Cleveland's offense, I don't see them taking their foot off the gas and I don't see the Celtics doing anything here to stop them from lighting up the scoreboard, especially now that the series has shifted to Cleveland Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year on UNDER

Each of the first two games in this series have gone well over the total and yet we are seeing the books stick close to their original number of 212 that they opened with for Game 1. With the series shifting to San Antonio and the Warriors off a 36-point blowout win in Game 2, I think Game 3 is poised to be a much lower-scoring game. For one, Golden State is primed for some kind of letdown here after how easy it was in Game 2 and don't figure to shoot as well on the road. San Antonio on the other hand is playing to keep their season alive. While the series isn't over with a loss, the Spurs know their chances of advancing down 3-0 are slim to none against this Warriors team. We are going to get everything San Antonio has and they know their only way of even keeping it close so they have a chance to win is to lock down defensively and slow the pace of play down. My money is on Popovich and his staff to make the proper adjustments and keep the Warriors high-powered attack in check. Take the UNDER!

5* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 Top Play on UNDER

The OVER had gone 4-1 in the series before a grueling 92-91 win by the Wizards in Game 6. It wasn't just one quarter where both teams were off. The highest combined point total of any quarter was 52. That's a 110 pace if they would have reached that mark in every quarter. This is just how the playoffs work. The deeper you get into a series the more intense it gets. That combined with the familiarity with each other usually results in much lower scoring games than what we might have seen earlier in the series.

This is really magnified in Game 7, where it's win or go home. Not only are teams giving 100% on defense every single play, but the pressure of the game often leads to some poorer shooting percentages. For most of the players on both of these teams, this will be the biggest game of their career. I would side with Boston given the advantage the home team has in Game 7 historically, but feel the best value is with the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 217 points, just eclipsing the total of 216, but needed OT to get there, as the two combined for only 202 at the end of regulation. The Rockets only played 7 players in that game and all 7 logged at least 26 minutes and 6 of the 7 played 34 or more with 4 players eclipsing 40 minutes. Houston clearly ran out of gas in that game. Playing at home will help those tired legs, but I just don't see the Rockets playing at the ridiculous tempo here and for this one to finish well below the numbers the books have posted. I believe we will see a similar style of game to Game 3, where the two combined for 195 points. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Jazz NBA Over/Under No Brainer on UNDER

The public loves to back the OVER in Warriors games, which has created some great value when they go up against some of the better teams. In fact, the UNDER is 20-5-1 in the Warriors last 26 games against a team that simply has a winning record (not just the elite teams). It's 2-1 in the series with Game 3 in Utah finishing with 193 points on a total of 209. That was with Durant and Curry combining for 61 and Hayward and Gobert teaming up for 50. Utah's known for their defense and the Warriors aren't too far behind them, the media just focuses on the offense. I don't see the Jazz going out without a fight and I also think Golden State is motivated here to match the Cavs with back-to-back sweeps to start the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked if this game fails to reach 190 points. Take the UNDER!

4* Raptors/Cavs Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

I just don't trust the Cavaliers defense right now. They allowed 108.8 ppg in their opening series against the Pacers and face an even more potent offense here in Toronto. The Raptors didn't put up big numbers offensively in their first series against the Bucks, but that was because of how long and talented Milwaukee is on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland has a lot more holes defensively, plus they like to play at a much faster tempo and shoot a ton of 3's. While the Cavs defense struggled, the offense was on point and I look for a high-scoring game here with both teams being well-rested. These two combined for only 181 point sin their last meeting, but that was the regular season finale where several starters didn't play. The previous two games between these two teams saw them combine for 138 and 128 points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I was all over the UNDER in Game 3 (1st Rd Total of the Month) and I'm sticking with it for Game 4. I expected a much slower paced game when the series shifted to Milwaukee in Game 3 and see no reason to think Game 4 is all the sudden going to be a shootout. The Bucks have shown they matchup well with the Raptors, who just can't get comfortable with the size of Milwaukee.

On the flip side of this, Toronto's back is against the wall, as they certainly don't want to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Look for an all out effort here from the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, we can expect some regression from Milwaukee's offense, which shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 52% behind the 3-point line. As for the Bucks, I don't see them not bringing it as well, as they know all their hard work is for nothing if they let Toronto win here and take back the home court advantage. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the Raptors and Bucks. These two combined for just 180 points in Milwaukee's 97-83 win. They would go for 206 in Toronto's 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Milwaukee and the Bucks clearly better off with a slower pace, I look for them to dictate the tempo. This is also a huge game in the series, as both teams will be desperate for that 2-1 series lead. UNDER is 6-1 in the Raptors last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games overall. UNDER is 16-4 in the Bucks last 20 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their last game, 5-1-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Raptors UNDER

These two teams combined for just 180 points in Game 1 with a total of 198. The books have adjusted big time for Game 2, but I don't think it's going to matter. These are two really good defensive teams that matchup well against the other. Toronto's defense improved big time when they added in Ibaka and Tucker, while the length of the Bucks really makes it hard for the opposition to get into any kind of rhythm.  I don't see either team getting 100 points and wouldn't be shocked to see a very similar combined score to Game 1. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

The playoffs bring a whole different intensity and while we don't see the UNDER cashing regularly right out of the gate, I think this series is one that is going to be an offensive struggle for both sides. Memphis isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past, but they were 6th overall in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs on the other hand were the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Factor in that both of these teams value possession of the ball and rank in the bottom 5 in pace, I think both teams will struggle to reach 90 points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee should have no problem keeping the Mavericks offense in check and keeping this well below the mark set by the books. Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention and aren't going to be look to push the tempo here and just won't have that same edge to their play. That's a problem for a team that has scored fewer than 98 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Milwaukee still hasn't clinched a playoff spot and are going to bring the defensive intensity in this one and the Bucks have been playing much better defensively during their big late season run. As for Milwaukee's offense, they aren't overly explosive and will likely be without point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who isn't getting near enough talk about being Rookie of the Year. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Suns/Blazers OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Blazers. Portland averages 110.3 ppg at home and Phoenix gives up 113.7 ppg on the road. On the flip side of this, the Blazers allow 109 ppg and the Suns average 107.1 ppg. Both these teams like to get up and down the floor and play at a fast pace. Last time out the Suns combined for 242 points in a 118-124 loss to the Clippers. Portland combined for 224 in a win over the Rockets and the game before combined for 235 with the Nuggets. It's also worth noting that Phoenix has allowed 120 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I think the books have set the total way too high for tonight's big matchup between the Spurs and Thunder on ESPN. Oklahoma City has went UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6, while the Spurs have gone UNDER in 3 of their last 5. These two teams have played twice this season and both times have finished with 202 or fewer points. I believe we could see an even lower-scoring game than normal, as both of these teams are in a bit of a flat spot. Spurs are coming off back-to-back games against the Cavs and Warriors, while the Thunder are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights off a couple of grueling road games at Dallas and Orlando where they had to make big comebacks in the 4th quarter. UNDER is 32-17 in the Spurs last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less and 31-17 in Thunder's last 48 as an underdog.

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here with the total, as the books have set the bar too high for this one. This is a huge game for both of these teams and I believe it's going to be a lot like a playoff atmosphere. Milwaukee is tied for 5th in the east, but are just 2.5-games from missing the postseason completely. One of the teams trying to sneak into the mix is the Hornets, who are 2-games back of 8th place Miami. Not to mention that Milwaukee has really been playing well defensively over the last month and Charlotte is a team that can lock down defensively at home when they need to. UNDER is 8-1 in the Hornets last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER

The Bucks have been locking down opponents on the defensive side of the floor lately. Milwaukee has allowed more than 103 points just twice in their last 12 games and both of those came on the road with one of them being the Warriors. They should have no problem keeping the Hawks in check at home. Atlanta continues to play without two of their most important pieces in Millsap and Bazemore. The Hawks have scored 100 or less in 5 straight games. Atlanta can't keep messing around. They are sitting in 5th place in the east, but just 3.5 games from being in 9th. I look for both teams to bring the intensity on defense and keep this well below the number. UNDER is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 14-2 in their last 16 off a road loss. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Bucks last 28 games in the month of March and 9-1 in their last 10 when facing a team that scored 100 or more in their last game. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in tonight's matchup between the Pacers and Celtics. Boston has really been locking teams down defensively in the 2nd half of the season and it's resulted in 17 of their last 21 going UNDER the total posted by the books. Indiana has also been playing much better on defense of late, as they have allowed 100 or less in 9 of their last 10. The Pacers have seen the UNDER going 16-7 in their last 23. These two teams also have a tendency to play lower-scoring games than the books expect, as 7 of their last 10 meetings have finished UNDER the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Wolves UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are anticipating when the Wolves and Spurs clash on ESPN tonight. San Antonio is one of the elite defensive teams in the league and come in allowing just 98.6 ppg. Minnesota's defense slipped during their 3-game road trip, but the T-Wolves have held the Wizards, Warriors and Clippers to 104 or less points in their last 3 home games. Keep in mind that these two teams also just recently played on 3/4 and combined for a mere 187 points. UNDER is 31-17 in the Spurs last 48 as a road favorite of 6-points or less and 13-3 in their lat 16 in the 2nd half against marginal losing teams (40% to 49%). UNDER is also 4-1 in the Wolves last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pacers/Raptors UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Raptors. Indiana comes in having held each of their last 5 opponents under 100 points and failed to eclipse the 100 point mark in 3 of their last 4. Their last game saw just 175 combined points and the game before that was just 168. Toronto has held 2 of their last 3 opponents to 80 or points or less and combined for a mere 162 in their last game at Detroit. Toronto's just not the same offensive team without Lowry and have to rely more on their defense. UNDER is 24-7 in the Raptors last 31 off an upset win and 16-5 in the Pacers last 21 overall. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle here between these two Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs come in allowing just 98.5 ppg which is second in the league behind the Jazz. Memphis isn't far behind, as they rank 4th at 100.4 ppg and are even stronger at home, where they allow a mere 97.2 ppg. UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. It's also 9-3 in the Grizzlies last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after they scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Clippers UNDER

Both of these teams are fighting for playoff position and will be extra motivated after losing last time out. Milwaukee was embarrassed in a 93-113 defeat at Memphis, while the Clippers lost at Utah 108-114. Note that prior to giving up 113 to the Grizzlies, the Bucks had held each of their last 5 to 100 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to 102 or fewer. I expect a much more locked in Milwaukee team in this one on defense. LA is also a team that can play defense and they have been trending much better on that side of the ball.

UNDER is 24-9 in the Clippers last 33 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 13-3 in their last 16 home games in the month of March, 22-9 in their last 31 home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after 3 straight games where they shot 47% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conf Total of the Month on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle tonight between the Bucks and Grizzlies. I know Memphis has slumped on the defensive side of the ball of late, but they were better in their last home game against the Hawks. With the losing streak at 5 now, I'm expecting a max effort here from the Grizzlies and it starts with the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee will be more than willing to grind it out with Memphis, as the Bucks have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball of late. Milwaukee has held each of their last 5 opponents under 98 points and will face a Memphis offense that managed just 90 points on 37.8% shooting in their last game.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 as a home favorite, 17-5 in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 7-1 in their last 8 when facing a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Wolves NBATV Heavy Hitter on UNDER 

The injury to Durant combined with Curry just not playing at the same level as the past two years has the Warriors offense in a funk. Golden State is averaging just 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and that's well below their season mark of 117.0 ppg. They now face a Minnesota team that is locking down on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves have allowed 97 or fewer points in 4 straight. While the offense has struggled, Golden State's defense has picked up the pace and they are really playing well on that side of the ball. I look for both offenses to struggle here. We know we are going to get a max effort from the Timberwolves at home in a game being televised on NBATV and the Warriors aren't going to take this one lightly off a loss. UNDER is 9-1 in the Warriors last 10 road games after 5 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less and 13-5 in their last 18 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockets/Spurs UNDER

I'm taking the Spurs and Rockets to finish below the high total set here by the books. San Antonio can be a dominant defensive team when they want to and are capable of slowing down the Rockets. In fact, they have held Houston to 100 points or fewer in 9 straight meetings between the two clubs. That includes two games this year, which the two teams combined for 206 and 202 points respectively. I expect a similar outcome here.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Rockets last 15 road games after scoring 105 or more points in 4 straight games, 11-4 in their last 15 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest, 10-1 in their last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Mavs UNDER

The fact that offenses are scoring at a ridiculous pace this season has forced oddsmakers to adjust the totals big time and I believe it creates some decent value when you get two teams like the Mavericks and Heat that aren't all that great offensively and still bring it on the defensive end of the floor. Dallas has especially been grinding games out of late. The Mavs have failed to eclipse 100 points in 4 straight and allowed 100 or less in their last 3.

Miami's offense has been playing well during their huge 2nd half surge, but I don't see them putting up a big number here on the road against this Mavs team. Not only will the Heat not being scoring as much as normal, they should be able to lockdown defensively on Dallas, who is scoring just 96.2 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Hawks/Magic OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring affair tonight between the Hawks and Magic. Orlando traded away one of their best defensive players in Ibaka and were not good defensively to start with. The Magic come in having allowed 107 or more points in 7 straight games. They allowed the Blazers to shoot 50.6% from the field in their first game back from the break.

Atlanta only managed 90 points in their first game back last night at home against the Heat, but that came without starting point guard Dennis Schroder, who was serving a suspension. Atlanta has scored at least 110 points in each of the last 4 meetings in the series. Hawks haven't been playing great defense of late and I think Orlando does enough at home to push this well over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Suns/Bulls OVER

I'm not expecting a lot of defense to be on display when the Bulls host he Suns tonight. Chicago just traded away one of their better defensive players in Taj Gibson. That move also means the pulls are going to play more of a smaller lineup with a stretch 4 like Mirotic. That should help generate more offense, but will hurt the Bulls defensively and Phoenix is a team that can put the ball in the basket. The Suns come in averaging 106.9 ppg and don't have hardly any dropoff on the road (106.2 ppg).

Phoenix doesn't play defense, as they come in allowing 113.3 ppg on the road. They also just traded away one of their best defensive players in P.J. Tucker. The Suns final 4 games before the break all had a combined score of at least 212 points. That included a 115-97 win over the Bulls at home. That's the only time Phoenix has held an opponent under 100 points in their last 20 games. OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams that allow opponents to shoot 46 or better from the field. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Wolves OVER

The books have set the bar too low for tonight's total between the Mavericks and Timberwolves. Minnesota is a team that likes to push the pace offensively and while their head coach preaches defense, they don't play a ton of it. The Timberwolves scored 106 or more points in 6 straight before the break and have allowed 100+ points in 14 of their last 16 games. Dallas isn't known for being an offensive team, but I believe they are trending in that direction with the move to release Deron Williams and give the point guard job to Yogi Ferrell.

I'm not expecting this to be in the 220's but I feel this number is way to low given that the average combined score in Minnesota home games is 210.7. OvER is 5-1 in the Mavs last 6 against the west and 20-7 in their last 27 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. OVER is also 5-0 in the T-Wolves last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Blazers/Magic OVER

I really like the value we are getting here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Blazers and Magic. I have this one easily eclipsing the 220 mark and potentially getting to 230. I just don't see either of these teams being all that motivated to play defense coming out of the break, especially given how disappointing a season it's been for both of these teams.

On top of that, defense has been a major problem for both teams, as each ranks in the bottom 8 in defensive efficiency. Not to mention both teams have had some big moving pieces in trades. OVER is 11-2 in the Magic's last 13 home games against a team from the Northwest division and 11-3 in the Blazers last 14 road games after going under the total in their previous game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Rockets OVER

I look for a lot of offensive fireworks tonight when the Rockets host the Heat. These two recently played in Miami, with the Heat winning 109-103. Houston shot just 40% from the floor and the two teams still managed to combine for 212 points. Considering the Rockets are on 3-days rest and averaging 116.0 ppg at home this season, I think these two will have no problem making up the difference to push this over the mark. Miami has scored 105 or more points in 7 straight games.

OVER is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and a perfect 4-0 in Houston's last 4 when playing on 3 or more days rest. OVER is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Houston. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Magic UNDER

I think the books have set the total too high for this one. San Antonio is playing on fumes right now, as this will be their 6th straight on the road, all of which coming since 2/6. I just don't see the Spurs looking to push the pace here. Their only focus is getting a win going into the All-Star break.

With Orlando likely playing short-handed, I look for the Spurs to try and put this game away early. Their defense should be able to make life miserable for the Magic. San Antonio has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and Orland is only averaging 97.7 ppg at home. UNDER is 23-8 in the Spurs last 31 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bulls OVER

There's a lot of moving parts going on around this game, as the Raptors just made a trade for Serge Ibaka and the Bulls are expected to be without starters Wade and Butler, as well as reserves Mirotic and Zipser. All of this has this game feeling a bit like an exhibition game and I just don't see either team playing much defense in this one.

Chicago certainly hasn't been playing any of late. The Bulls have allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games and given up 115 or more in each of their last 3. Given what Chicago has to work with and the Raptors ability to light it up offensively (109.1 ppg), I think Toronto is going to continue that streak. Not having Butler and Wade might seem like a huge loss for Chicago's offense, but it allows them to play at a little faster pace and gets some more 3-point shooters on the floor. You also have to take into consideration that Toronto will have a difficult time taking the Bulls seriously without their star players, so it's unlikely they are coming into this one looking to lock down defensively. OVER is 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Southeast Game of the Month on Magic/Heat OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Miami when the Heat host the Magic tonight. Miami had their 13-game winning streak snapped in a 109-117 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday. It's exactly difficult to keep the momentum going from a long winning streak after it's snapped. On top of that, the Heat are returning home from a 4-game road trip. I just don't see the effort being their on the defensive side of the ball, especially against a bad team like the Magic.

Offensively the Heat should be able to continue to their recent surge. Miami has scored 100+ points in 12 straight games and are facing a Orlando defense that has allowed 112 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 109 ppg on the road this season. OVER is 8-1 in the Magic's last 9 road games after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 12-4 in their last 16 after giving up 60+ points at the half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Bucks OVER

I think this total is a good 10-points lower than what it should be. The Heat are playing at a different level right now than they were just a few weeks ago. Miami only averages 100.7 ppg on the season, but have scored 100 or more in 9 straight games, eclipsing 115 points in each of their last 3. That trend doesn't figure to come to an end against a Bucks team that has allowed 100+ in 17 straight games and is mixing up the rotation with three new faces tonight.

While Miami figures to have no problem surpassing the 100-point mark, I think the Bucks could really light up the scoreboard here. The Heat are not the same team defensively on the road and the Bucks are locked in offensively right now. After putting up 117 at Denver, the hung 137 on the Suns the next night. These two played in Miami on 1/13 and combined for 224 points and I think we will see a similar type of output tonight. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for tonight's showdown between the Rockets and Magic. On one side you have one the most dynamic and efficient offenses in the league in the Rockets and on the other you have one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Magic, Houston is averaging 114.8 ppg at home and the Magic are giving up 108.2 ppg on the road. The Rockets should score close to 120-125 on their own, which means we just need an average offense night from the Magic to push this over the total.

I believe we will get at least that from Orlando and maybe some more. Given how bad the Magic have been this year and are playing at the moment, this isn't a game where the Rockets are going to choose to use up a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball. OVER is 6-2 in the Rockets last 8 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 7-0 in the Magic's last 7 road games after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Knicks OVER

These two teams played back in December and combined for 230 points in a 118-112 Knicks win. I think we are going to see a similar scoring output here. Both of these teams have the ability to put up a lot of points and each rank in the top half of the league in pace. Each also come into this game in good form. Lakers have scored at least 107 in each of their last 3 and the Knicks are averaging 109.8 ppg over their last 5.

The big key here is that neither of these teams play much defense. In fact, both rank in the bottom 7 of the league in defensive efficiency. Lakers have allowed 113 or more in each of their last 3 games and the Knicks have allowed 100+ in 11 of their last 12. Add in this being a game played on Monday, where players just aren't always locked in and I think there's going to be zero defense played in this one. OVER is 13-4 in the Lakers last 17 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Cavs/Wizards UNDER

I really like the value here with the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. This is a big time game. Cleveland is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and the Wizards are playing as well as anyone right now. Washington is 14-2 over their last 16 and have won 17 straight at home. The Cavs are well aware of this and I expect them to try a send a massage to the Wizards, especially with this being a nationally televised prime time game on TNT.

The defensive numbers for Cleveland aren't great, but this is a team that can get after it on that side of the ball when they want to. They also have been playing much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing just 99.0 ppg over their last 4. Washington's defense has also been solid of late, giving up just 96.0 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 14-4 in Cleveland's last 18 as a road dog. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pistons/Pacers UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER in the total for tonight's game between the Pistons and Pacers. Both teams are coming off a win last night where they scored 100+ points. The thing is, the offense figures to be down a notch for both sides playing on no rest, and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights. On top of that, we have two division rivals, who are both playing well at the moment and desperately want a win here.

UNDER is 31-17 in the Pistons last 48 road games after playing their previous game against a team from the western conference. UNDER is also 29-9 in the Pacers last 38 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 20-9 in their last 29 at home after a game where they covered the spread. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Mavs/Blazers OVER

I believe the books have set the bar way too low for tonight's total between the Blazers and Mavericks. A big reason for the small total is the fact that the Mavericks are one of the worst offensive teams statistically at just 97.4 ppg. However, those numbers don't reflect how Dallas is playing right now. The Mavs are averaging 104.6 ppg over their last 5 and fresh off a 113-pt outburst against the 76ers.

Portland is a dynamic offensive team that comes in averaging 107.8 ppg on the season and is even better than that right now, putting up 114.0 ppg over their last 5. Defense has been the problem for the Blazers, as they are allowing 110.0 ppg. I see both teams easily eclipsing the 100-point mark and see this one finishing around the 215-210 range. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Hornets/Blazers OVER

I think we are getting some great value on the total going over the mark in tonight's matchup between the Blazers and Hornets. Portland likes to get up and down the floor and should be able to dictate the tempo at home, where they are averaging 108.9 ppg and allowing 107.8 ppg. I don't see Charlotte having any problem playing at the Blazers pace, as the Hornets come in off 2 days of rest and are putting up 104.8 ppg on the road this season. Charlotte's defensive woes are a big reason they are 23-25 and they come in allowing 106.0 ppg on the road. I see both teams easily getting past the 100-point mark and believe it will end up somewhere in the 220's.

OVER is 22-8 in the Hornets last 30 road games after playing their previous game at home, 14-6 in the Blazers last 20 after going under the total in their last game and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

This might seem like a high total for tonight's matchup between the Kings and Rockets, but I don't see either team putting forth much effort on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Sacramento is playing on no rest, their 4th game in 5 nights and 8th straight on the road in a 12-day span. While the Rockets had yesterday off, they are dealing with jetlag after just returning home from a 5-game east coast trip.

On top of that, these two teams aren't exactly known for their defense and each is giving up a lot here of late. In fact, the Kings are allowing 111.8 ppg over their last 5 and the Rockets are allowing 116.0 ppg. At the same time, both offenses are scoring at will. Sacramento is averaging 112.8 ppg over their last 5 and Houston is even better at 113.2 ppg. Note that the Rockets average 115.3 ppg at home. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Suns OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Monday's matchup between the Suns and Grizzlies. The game is being played in Phoenix and I look for the Suns to dictate the tempo here against a Memphis team that has to be tired, playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights.

The Grizzlies are thought of as a great defensive team, but I don't see the effort being there tonight and they are giving up 104.4 ppg on the road this season. Offensively, Memphis is better than people think and have scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8. Phoenix has scored and allowed at least 100 points in 10 straight games. Only once in those 10 games did they fail to combine for at least 210 points. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Kings/Hornets UNDER

My money is on the Kings and Hornets to go under the mark set by the books on Saturday. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace here. The Kings have to be running on fumes right now. Sacramento is playing their 6th straight road game in a span of just 9 days and this one comes on no rest after an overtime loss at Indiana last night. The Hornets haven't had to deal with as much travel, but are also playing for the 6th time in 9 days and on no rest after an ugly loss last night at New York. I look for both teams to come out flat and both offenses to struggle to score enough to push this over the mark.

UNDER is 4-1 in the Kings last 5 when playing on no rest, 6-2 in their last 8 after a SU loss and 11-5 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Hornets last 8 overall, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Cavs OVER

I'm expecting a lot of points on the scoreboard in this one. Cleveland failed to win after LeBron called out ownership, losing in overtime at home to the Kings. The problem was the defense and I just don't see the Cavs being locked in on that side of the ball here. Cleveland is playing on fumes right now and aren't going to waste up their energy with a much bigger home game on deck Sunday against the Thunder.

Cleveland hasn't had any problem scoring of late, as they ahve put up 112 or more in each of their last 4 games. There's a good chance that trend continues against the Nets, who are allowing a ridiculous 117.3 ppg on the road this season. Brooklyn likes to play at a fast pace and that should allow them to take advantage of this tired Cleveland defense and do enough here to push it over the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game here when the Thunder host the Mavericks tonight. Both of these teams are running on fumes right now. Dallas will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will have to so without several key pieces. Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Barea are all out for this contest. As for the Thunder, they too are playing on no rest, plus are going to be dealing with some jetlag after just wrapping up a lengthy 6-game road trip. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace here and the shots from long distance won't be falling like they normally would. Not to mention, Dallas knows they can't run up and down the floor with OKC and will really try to slow this game to a snails pace.

UNDER is 10-1 in the Mavericks last 11 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 12-3 in their last 15 games on Thursday and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-2 in OKC's last 8 after a win and 12-3 in their last 15 home games when playing 4 or less games in days. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting a much-higher scoring game than what most will anticipate tonight when the Mavericks host the Knicks. Dallas is known as a team that is limited offensively and likes to play at a slow pace. While that's true to an extent, you have to look at who they are playing and the current form.

While the Mavs are averaging just 96.6 ppg on the season, they come in scoring 104.2 ppg over their last 5, shooting just under 47% from the field as a team. Good chance they keep it rolling against a Knicks team that is allowing 107.4 ppg over their last 5 and 110.3 ppg on the road. Knicks are more than capable of keeping pace offensively, as they average 105.6 ppg on the season and are scoring 109.6 ppg over their last 5.

OVER is 42-18 in the Mavs last 60 home games off a home win by 20 or more points and a perfect 7-0 in the Knicks last 7 off a road win. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Nets OVER

I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total between the Spurs and Nets. Brooklyn is a bad team, but their ability to put up points combined with their inability to play defense, makes them a great team to back on the OVER. The Nets come in averaging 106.2 ppg , while allowing 114.9 ppg. The Spurs can make great defenses look average and should have no problem scoring at will here against Brooklyn. San Antonio is averaging 108.1 ppg on the road this season and scored 130 on the Nets in the first meeting this season.

OVER is 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after 3 or more consecutive wins  and 13-3 in their last 16 after shooting 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. OVER is 13-4 in the Nets Last 17 non-conference games and 23-9 in their last 32 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Celtics OVER

I like the value here with the total, as I'm expecting a shootout in Boston tonight. The Celtics have been scoring at will on the offensive end of late, as they have scored 100+ in 16 straight games. Hard to image that streak coming to an end against Portland. The Blazers are giving up 112.0 ppg on the road this season. Boston also figures to push the pace here coming off a 2-day break. I think the Celtics are going to hit 220 or more and the Blazers should be able to get at least 100. Boston has allowed 100 or more in 14 of their last 15 games.

OVER is 22-13 in the Blazers last 35 with a total of 210 or more and 16-5 in the Celtics last 21 home games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Blazers/Hornets OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Blazers and Hornets. Neither of these teams are playing much defense right now. The Blazers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the season and 113.0 ppg on the road. Don't see a big effort on defense from Portland in this one. Charlotte has been even worse defensively of late, as they have allowed 100+ in 8 straight games and have allowed 110 or more in 5 of those. Portland can score the basketball, as they average 107.9 ppg overall and 107.1 ppg on the road.

OVER is 13-5 in the Blazers last 18 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 after going under the total in their previous game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Bulls UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here when the Bulls host the Mavericks on Tuesday. Neither of these two teams like to play at a very fast pace. Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Dallas is tied for last in pace with Utah. The big key here is the Bulls are going to be out for revenge from an ugly 82-107 loss at Dallas earlier this season. That's going to have Chicago locked in on the defensive side of the ball and this team can get after you defensively when they want to. More than anything, I just don't see enough possessions here for this one to reach 200, especially when you factor in both of these teams rank in the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency.

UNDER is 31-15 in the Bulls last 46 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 8-3 in their last 11 home games and 8-1 in their last 9 at home against a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 following a cover, 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-0 in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hawks UNDER

The books have created some great value here with this high number on the total for Sunday's game between the Bucks and Hawks. Atlanta's defense is trending up, as they come in having allowed just 93.6 ppg over their last 5 and I expect a big defensive effort from the Hawks at home after watching their 7-game winning streak snapped in a 101-103 loss at home to the Celtics. The Bucks aren't a great defensive team, but can lock down when they want to on that side of the ball and this Atlanta is far from explosive. 

UNDER has gone 6-3 in the last 9 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 games in Atlanta. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Hawks last 9 after 5 straight games holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting percentage, 9-1 in their last 10 after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 12-2 in their last 14 home games off a home loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Dominator on Pistons/Jazz UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game tonight when the Pistons visit the Jazz. Utah is locked in on the defensive side of the ball right now and it's well known that the Jazz are a dominant defensive team. In Utah's last 3 games they have held Minnesota to 92 points, Grizzlies to 88 points and the Cavs to 92 points. Detroit is only scoring 100.3 ppg and don't figure to have their legs in this one, as they are playing their 4th straight on a west coast road trip. I know the Pistons defense hasn't been great of late, but with the way Utah likes to slow the game down, I don't see them going off here.

UNDER is 29-16 in the Pistons last 45 road games after playing a game against a team from the Western Conference and 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game (allowed 127 to Warriors). UNDER is also 22-9 in Utah's last 31 home games with a total of 190 to 199.5, 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 8-0 in their last 8 at home after leading in their last game by 15 or more at the half. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Suns OVER

I think the books have set the bar way too low for tonight's total between the Mavs and Suns, as they two will face off in Mexico City. I just don't think teams lock in defensively in these games outside the country and there's plenty of reason to expect a lot of scoring just given the matchup.

The Mavericks are giving up 102.6 ppg on the road and the Suns are allowing 113.5 ppg away from home. Dallas is only scoring 95.1 ppg, but even the most limited offenses can torch this Phoenix defense. The Suns also rank 3rd in pace, so we should see extra possessions for both sides. Phoenix can also light it up, as they are scoring 105.9 ppg.

OVER is 20-9 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring 105 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after a home game where both teams scored 100+. TAKE THE OVER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Lakers/Blazers OVER

I got no problem playing the over on this big total here with the Blazers and Lakers. All signs point to a high-scoring game in this one. We have two teams that don't play a lot of defense. In fact, each ranks in the bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are allowing 109.8 ppg and the Blazers are allowing 111.5 ppg (even worse 113.9 ppg on the road).

Not only do we have two teams who don't play defense, but we have two offenses that like to get out and run and shoot a lot of 3-pointers. Both rank in the Top 10 in pace. Portland averages 108.2 ppg and Los Angeles is at 105.3 ppg overall and a much better 109.8 ppg at home. Each team is also trending up on offense, with the Blazers scoring 109.6 ppg over the last 5 games and the Lakers at 115.4 ppg. 

OVER is 12-4 in the Blazers last 16 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 on the road after allowing 105 or more in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-3 in the Lakers last 16 against a team with a losing record, 13-5 in their last 18 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Raptors OVER

I'm expecting a very high-scoring game when two of the Eastern Conference's best square off tonight. We have the Celtics visiting the Raptors. While these two can play solid defense, I don't think we see a lot of it tonight. More than anything, these are two elite offenses that can flat out score and are doing so at a very high rate of late. 

Toronto is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 110.6 ppg on the season, 112.9 ppg at home and 109.0 ppg over their last 5. Keep in mind Boston will be without their best perimeter defender in Avery Bradley and that's a huge loss against the Raptors loaded backcourt. Boston ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, averaging 106.8 ppg overall, 106.7 ppg on the road and 115.4 ppg over their last 5. Note the Celtics offense has been lights out of late. They have scored 110 or more 8 straight and 9 of their last 10. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Celtics last 22 after scoring 100 or more in 4 straight games, 8-0 in their last 8 when having won 8 of their last 10 and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 11-2 in the Raptors last 13 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 11-3 in their last 14 off SU loss and 11-0 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more in the first half of their last game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Bulls OVER

I expect a high-scoring game tonight when the Bulls and Thunder clash at the United Center. This game features two of the league's most promising stars in Russell Westbrook and Jimmy Butler. While they get all the attention, it's how these two teams are playing overall that has me liking this one to go OVER the mark here set by the books.

Chicago has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 108.8 ppg over their last 5 games. A big part of the improved play offensively, is the production the Bulls are getting from guys like Mirotic, McDermott and Carter-Williams. I look for Chicago to have no problem keeping it going against a Thunder team that doesn't figure to play with a lot of energy on defense playing their 4th road game in their last 5 overall. OKC is giving up 108.7 ppg on the road this season and 106.6 ppg over their last 5.

While the Bulls offense is surging, the defense hasn't been there. Chicago is giving up 110 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a dynamic Thunder offense that is scoring 106.8 ppg on the season and 111.4 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Bulls don't have the talent at point guard to make things tough on Westbrook. That should lead to a fast-paced game from the get go. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wolves/Wizards OVER

I really like the value here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Wolves. These are two teams that know how to score the basketball. Minnesota comes in averaging 103.3 ppg and Washington is averaging 105.2 ppg with an even better 108.2 ppg at home. At the same time, these are two teams that struggle to defend. The Timberwolves give up 105.0 ppg and the Wizards allow 106.2 ppg.

With both teams having not played since Tuesday (2 days rest), both are going to have fresh legs and will be looking to get out an run as much as possible. This is huge for both of these teams, as Minnesota's starters lead the league in minutes played and the Wizards are second. Some might look to back the under after seeing Minnesota score 91 and 89 points in their last two games, but that actually is a good thing. OVER is 11-2 in the Wolves last 13 after going UNDER the total in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 when playing with 2 days rest and 16-5 in their last 21 after playing their last 2 games on the road. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bulls/Cavs UNDER

I think the total here has been set way too high. Cleveland could be playing this game without all 3 of their Big 3 and will more than likely not have Irving in this one. James and Love are both dealing with sickness and it was so bad for James that he was told to stay home from shootaround. Even if he plays, I just don't see the Cavs looking to push the tempo here.

Chicago isn't in much better shape, as they could be without Wade and Rondo continues to ride the bench in Hoiberg's doghouse. The key here is that whoever does end up playing will bring the defensive intensity in this division matchup. UNDER is 19-7 in the Bulls last 26 division road games, 9-3-1 in their last 13 after scoring 100 or more in their last game and 7-3-1 in their last 11 off a SU win. Take the UNDER !

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's contest between the Raptors and Spurs. These are two of the best the league has to offer and I expect both to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Anytime you get two elite teams facing off with a big total like we have here, the UNDER is always a strong option. In fact, the UNDER is 62-20 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 or more with two teams that are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg.

Last year these two teams played twice and combined for just 191 and 197 points. It's also worth pointing out that both totals last year were no where close to what we are seeing here. The total was just 187.5 at San Antonio and 192 at Toronto. We also see that the UNDER is 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 off a SU loss and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* Bulls/Spurs NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

The defensive intensity is turned up a notch from what it normally is during the regular season on these Christmas Day games and the Spurs/Bulls matchup will be no different. Both these teams can get after it defensively. Chicago is only giving up 99.7 ppg and the Spurs allow just 97.9 ppg. 

This game means a lot to both teams. San Antonio wants revenge from a 91-95 loss in Chicago earlier this season, which is one of only two road losses all year. The Bulls are simply desperate for a win, as they have dropped 2 straight and 8 of their last 11. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Bulls 14 road games this season, 9-1 in their last 10 after a loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

5* Warriors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER

Playing on Christmas Day is a big deal for these NBA players and there's not a bigger game on the schedule today that the NBA Finals rematch between the Warriors and Cavs. Both teams want to make a statement and send a message to other team that they are the team to beat this year. While it won't quite be the intensity of a Game 7, it will be close. 

A lot of people get taken in by what these two teams can do offensively, but both are elite defensive teams when they want to be. They just don't play with that intensity on defense every game, as they can just rely on their offense to carry them against the majority of the league. Keep in mind that these two combined for just 182 points in Game 7 last year and we are sitting here with a total north of 220. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Central Division Play of the Month on Bucks/Cavs UNDER

We had the UNDER in last night's game which was a tough loss, as the two teams finished UNDER the total in regulation, but the game went to OT and pushed it over the mark. On the bright side, I believe has kept tonight's total higher than it should be. More time than not, these second games of a home-and-home set on back-to-back nights end up being a much lower scoring game than the first time around. The fact that these two had to play an extra 5 mines last night, only helps us here.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs decided to rest some players here, as they want to be fresh for Sunday's big Christmas Day showdown against the Warriors (have to play Brooklyn Friday). Note that J.R. Smith is already listed as doubtful and Kevin Love is questionable and likely won't play.

UNDER is 35-18 in Cleveland's last 53 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 in their last 16 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucks last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest and 10-4 in their last 14 against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Cavs/Bucks UNDER

These two teams recently played in Milwaukee on 11/29. The Bucks won that game 118-101. While that game finished over the total of 213.5, we find an even shorter total in the rematch. For good reason. Cleveland didn't show any interest on the defensive side of the ball in that last meeting and the Cavs aren't a team that takes losing lightly. They are going to be out to make a statement here against the Bucks and have really been locking down defensively here of late.

Milwaukee is also going to be all business in this one, as they know they are going to get a great effort here from Cleveland and want to prove that their earlier win was no fluke. Milwaukee's defense has been hit or miss, but they have consistently showed up on that side of the ball against division opponents, as they are allowing just 94.4 ppg against their Central rivals this season. The Bucks also catch a break here, as the Cavs will be minus a huge weapon on offense in Kevin Love, who is doubtful with a knee injury.

UNDER is 35-17 in Milwaukee's last 52 after a SU win, 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central Division and 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers OVER

I think these two teams will have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. The Wizards have seen the OVER cash in 5 straight games, all of which seen a combined score of 213 or more. Washington is averaging 111.8 ppg during this stretch and giving up 108.2 ppg. I don't see the Pacers being able to keep Washington's offense in check here. Indiana is in a big flat spot here defensively, as they have played 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 on the road and are short-handed right now with both Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey sidelined with injuries.

The key here is that Indiana still has the fire-power offensively to take advantage of Washington's poor defense. On top of that, the Wizards don't figure to bring much intensity defensively in this one. Washington just played yesterday at home against the Clippers and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.

OVER is 23-9 in the Wizards last 32 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 14-3 in their last 17 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less. OVER is also 10-1 in Washington's last 11 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I think both of these teams are primed for a poor offensive showing in this one. Both are going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and there's a little extra motivation defensively here with this being a division matchup. Indiana is playing without one of their top offensive weapons in Monta Ellis and his absence has really improved their defense. Detroit on the other hand just played last night in Washington, where the defense failed to show up in a 108-122 defeat. I look for a much better effort defensively at home, where the Pistons are only giving up 90.7 ppg on the season.

UNDER is 26-6 in the Pacers last 32 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 10-2 in their last 12 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pistons last 9 as a home favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Nets/Magic OVER

This one has a shootout written all over it, as two struggling teams face off Friday night with Nets (7-17) visiting the Magic (11-16). Anytime Brooklyn is involved in a game, you have to lean to the over, especially on the road. The OVER is 17-7 in the Nets 24 games overall this season and 10-1 in their 11 road games. Why is that? Brooklyn leads the league in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game and have shown the ability to score at 106.5 ppg. On top of that, they rank 28th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency and come in giving up 118.5 ppg.

You might be thinking Orlando isn't a great bet here, as the Magic come in averaging just 96.6 ppg overall and a mere 94.8 ppg at home. It's all about Orlando's current form. The Magic are averaging 105.4 ppg over their last 5 and have seen a combined score of 121 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the OVER!

5* Knicks/Warriors TNT Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I look for the Warriors to light up the scoreboard tonight against the Knicks. Golden State is coming off a 5-game road trip, where they only averaged 107.8 ppg. That might seem like a lot, but this is a team that's averaging 117.8 ppg on the season. They have been electric at home, scoring 123.9 ppg. The Knicks have been better than a lot of people expected, but have struggled when facing the elite teams. They simply aren't a good enough defensive team to put up a serious fight here.

The key here is the Warriors up tempo offense allows for their opponents to put up a big number. Golden State is allowing 109.2 ppg at home, as opponents are averaging 90 shot attempts against them. With just 1-day off after that 5-game road trip, I just don't see the all out defensive intensity that would be needed to keep this from going over the total.

It's also worth pointing out that all 5 of the Warriors game on their road trip went under the total, which only adds to the value here, as the OVER is 23-9 in their last 32 after 5 or more consecutive games going under the total. OVER is also 21-7 in the Knicks last 28 road games off a close road loss by 3 or less (lost 111-113 in OT at Phoenix on Tuesday). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

These two teams are poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. Houston likes to play at a frantic pace and should have no problem pushing the tempo here, as they will be playing their third straight at home and just their second game in the last 4 days. It certainly helps facing a Kings team that has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball, as they are giving up 103.5 ppg. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3-point shot, which is what the Rockets do better than anybody in the league, as they come into this one having made an NBA-record 10 or more 3-points in 24 straight games.

When the offense is rolling, Houston doesn't have to worry as much on the defensive side of the ball and we saw that first hand in their last game at home against the Nets, where they allowed Brooklyn to put up 118 points on 52.5% shooting. Sacramento is a very capable offensive team and should have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark and pushing this game into the 220's.

OVER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 home games after playing their previous game as a home favorite. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on OVER

I look for a lot of offense in tonight's game between the Bulls and Timberwolves. Chicago comes in averaging 105.6 ppg at home and should see their offense improve over what it's been of late with the recent return of key reserve Doug McDermott. On top of that, they will facing a Minnesota team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are giving up 109.8 ppg on the road and come in having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 9.

While Minnesota isn't playing much defense, they are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they are scoring 103.9 ppg. Chicago is a decent defensive team, but are trending in the wrong direction. They are allowing 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and have given up 100+ points in 5 of their last 6.

OVER is 33-18 in the Timberwolves last 51 road games, 16-4 in their last 20 non-conference road games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after giving up 60 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Rockets OVER

I'm not worried about this big total here, as this game has a shootout written all over it. Houston comes in averaging 110.8 ppg at home and will be facing a Brooklyn defense that is giving up 118.2 ppg on the road. The Nets are a much better offensive team that people give them credit for and come in averaging 106.0 ppg. Houston is allowing just 100.0 ppg at home, but I look for them to struggle to bring the effort defensively here against a bad team, who is going to let them do whatever they want offensively.

Pace is a key thing when looking at totals and this one should feature a frantic pace, as the Nets come in 2nd in the league in pace this season and Houston is a respectable 11th. Another big key with the Rockets offense, is they are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Nets are 29th in defensive efficiency.

OVER is 14-4 in the Nets last 18 against teams who teams who attempt 18 or more 3 points shots/game and 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are scoring 103+ ppg. OVER is also 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 when playing against a bad team (Winning Percentage of 25% to 40%). Take the OVER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Suns/Jazz OVER

I think the books have set the bar way to low here on the total for tonight's game between the Suns and Jazz. While Utah is only allowing 91.8 ppg at home and just 95.1 ppg on the season, they haven't been locking down opponents of late, giving up 102.5 ppg over their last 5. Phoenix is a team that is capable of scoring on anyone and come in having put up 100+ in all but 4 games this season. They are really clicking at the moment, as they are shooting 49.6% from the field in their last 5 games.

Utah is also in great form offensively right now, which is part of the reason they haven't been getting after teams defensively. The Jazz have scored at least 105 points in 5 straight games and will have no problem keeping that streak going against the Suns, who are giving up 113.2 ppg on the season and 115.2 ppg on the road.

OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams who average at least 18 3-point attempts per game, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games, 11-2 in their last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-0 this season against teams with a winning record. OVER is also 8-0 in Utah's last 8 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Blazers OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Portland Saturday night between the Heat and Blazers. Miami has been one of the better defensive teams early on this season, as they come into this one allowing just 98.8 ppg. However, this is not a good spot for the Heat and the effort needed to play well defensively. Miami will be playing their 3rd straight road games in 4 days and 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. It's about as tough of a road slate as you will find, especially playing their last two at Utah and Denver on back-to-back nights and then having to turn around in play in Portland.

The defense has already showed signs of slipping here lately, as they have allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 8. Hard to see them slowing down a potent Portland offense on the road, as the Blazers come in averaging 113.3 ppg at home and have failed to eclipse to the 100-point mark just twice all season. The Blazers are also awful defensively, as they have only held two opponents under the century mark, giving up 100+ in each of their 14 games. Miami's offense has scored 100+ in 4 straight, so they are in good form and should have no problem making it 5 in a row. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Knicks OVER

These two should have no problem eclipsing the total in this one. Oklahoma City comes in having scored 100+ points in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 11 overall. It's no secret that the Thunder go as Russell Westbrook goes and this is an ideal matchup for him, as Derrick Rose is not a defensive minded player and will get exposed whenever the two are matched up. The Knicks also don't have anyone else they can go to to keep Westbrook in check.

Westbrook on full go will have the Thunder playing at a fast pace here and force the Knicks to play up to their tempo. The key here is that New York is clicking offensively right now. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have allowed 100+ in 5 of those. It's also worth noting that the defensive intensity doesn't figure to be there for either side in a non-conference game with both sides playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

OVER is 5-1 in OKC's last 6 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. OVER is also 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 when facing a team that scored 100+ points in their last game and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hornets/Knicks OVER

New York has got something going of late, as they come in having won 4 of their last 5. A big part of that is their offense is clicking. The Knicks have scored at least 104 points in 5 straight games and have connected on 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. They should be able to keep it going here against a Hornets team that has lost their edge on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing 109.8 ppg over their last 5 games and twice during this stretch have allowed 119 or more.

The key here is the Hornets should have no problem keeping up with the Knicks on the offensive side of the ball. Charlotte comes in averaging 105.4 ppg on the season and have hit 114 or more in 3 of their last 5. The only two times they have failed to score at least 100 points in their last 9 games were against the Cavs and Grizzlies. New York doesn't figure to be able to add their name to the list, as they enter ranked 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and are allowing 105.9 ppg.

I also think there's some extra factors favoring a high-scoring game. I don't see the intensity being their on defense after the holiday break yesterday. On top of that, these two teams will face off again tomorrow in Charlotte. OVER is 10-3-2 in the last 15 meetings overall and a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total Annihilator on Thunder/Kings OVER

I look for the Kings and Thunder to cruise past this total tonight. Oklahoma City has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games and that trend doesn't figure to come to an end with the Thunder playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. Especially against a Kings team that is clicking offensively right now. Sacramento comes in averaging 110.5 ppg over their last 4 games.

It's not just the Kings that will be filling up the stat sheet, Oklahoma City has scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8 games and come in averaging 112.3 ppg over their last 4. They shouldn't have any problem keeping the offense going, as Sacramento ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 12-2 in OKC's last 14 road games against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 100+ points last time out. We also have a strong system in play, as the OVER is 63-28 (69%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more, where the road team is coming in off a loss by 3-points or less and playing an opponent that has scored 100+ points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Lakers OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring game Friday night when the Lakers host the Spurs on ESPN. This LA team has been a pleasant surprise early on this season and they are playing an exciting brand of basketball, as new head coach Luke Walton has brought over a similar type of offense to the Warriors. The Lakers will jack up 3's as much as they can and will be looking to push the pace. I believe they can dictate the tempo here playing on 2 days of rest. 

San Antonio likes to play at a little slower pace, but will have no problem picking up the tempo here. The Spurs should be able to put up a big number here against a Lakers defense that is giving up north of 108 ppg. San Antonio is a well-oiled machine offensively and are actually scoring better on the road than they are at home. The Spurs are averaging just 101.9 ppg on the season, but are scoring 108.8 ppg on the road. Lakers are also a much better offensive team at home, as they are putting up 115.6 ppg at home compared to their season average of 110.0 ppg. 

OVER is 6-2 in the Spurs last 8 road games and 5-1 in the Lakers last 6 on the road. OVER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the OVER!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Thunder OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this high total. These are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Houston comes in averaging 107.8 ppg, while Oklahoma City isn't too far behind at 108.9 ppg. The Thunder being at home only adds more value here, as OKC's scoring average jumps to 108.9 ppg at home and the Rockets are averaging 110.0 ppg on the road.

It's also important to note that while both teams don't play at a frantic pace, they both like to get up and down the floor. I believe the biggest factor here is the matchup at point guard. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are putting up video game type numbers to start the season. Harden comes in averaging 30.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 12.6 apg. Westbrook is right there with him at 32.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 9.9 apg. Houston has the more weapons overall on offense, but the Rockets don't play much defense, especially Harden.

We also find a strong system in play. The OVER is 51-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a home win by 10 or more points (Houston) in a game involving two marginal winning teams (Win % at 51% to 60%). Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Wednesday's matchup between the Hornets and Jazz. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. Utah comes in allowing just 94.4 ppg and Charlotte is giving up just 96.5 ppg. Both rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, as the Hornets are 2nd and the Jazz are 10th.

The key here is that Utah is a team that wants to slow down the pace of the game. In fact, they come in dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. I expect them to look to play even slower than normal here, as this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. Note that Charlotte has played just one team in their first 6 games who ranks in the bottom 10 in pace. That's Miami, who is currently 22nd. That game finished with 188 points and both teams shooting 38% or worse from the field.

It's also worth pointing out Utah has played 4 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The only one that saw more than 194 points was a game at San Antonio, where the two combined for 197. Utah shot the lights out in that game, hitting 15 3-pointers and shooting 50% from the field. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen here against the Hornets. The other 3 against Top 10 defensive teams saw 186 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER on the total in tonight's NBA clash between the Hawks and Wizards. Neither of these teams were in action the last two nights, so this is there season opener and it comes in a key division matchup, as both of these teams figure to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast. I look for both sides to come out with a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball and lead to a much lower scoring game than what this line would suggest. 

Atlanta had some big chances over the offseason. They parted ways with two of their best players in Al Horford and Jeff Teague. The only real significant move they made to improve the roster in free agency was Dwight Howard, who will start in place of Horford. Taking over for Teague will be Dennis Schroder. I think both of these guys are upgrades defensively and I look for the Hawks to play at a slower pace this year. 

Washington returns their core starters from last year with the focus centered around the backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards aren't a great defensive team, but they should be able to keep the Hawks new look lineup in check here. At the same time, I think Atlanta's going to make things difficult for Washington, as the Wizards won't get a ton of easy looks inside with Howard patrolling the paint. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER

Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%. 

Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th. 

OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER!  

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round. 

Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field. 

UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg. 

Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points.

UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER

These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER. 

This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 

I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead. 

I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2. 

UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Hawks OVER

The Hawks and Celtics went UNDER the total in Game 1, as they combined for 203 points with a total posted at 206.5. The books have adjusted slight for Game 2, but I think that's a mistake. These two teams combined for 203 points with neither team shooting well from the field. 

Boston only hit 36.3% (37-102) from the field, while the Hawks weren't much better at 40.7% (35-86). Atlanta was also a miserable 18.5% (5-27) from behind the 3-point line, well below their season average of 35.2% at home. I look for both teams to come out and shoot the ball much better and with the tempo they are playing at, this game should fly over the total. 

Keep in mind that Boston lost one of their best defensive players in Avery Bradley, which is a bigger loss than people think. It's also worth noting that in the previous 3 meetings during the regular season these two teams combined for at least 210 points. A mark I see them eclipsing tonight. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game in tomorrow's series opener between the Raptors and Pacers. The fact that both of these teams average right around 102.0 ppg, will have the public backing the over with this low total, but you can't overreact to regular season numbers. 

The playoffs are a completely different than the regular season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The intensity is simply taken to a whole new level and while both teams are good offensively, these are also two teams that no how to get after it on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-4 in the Pacers last 16 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 against the Eastern Conference and 24-15 in their last 39 after scoring 100+ in two straight games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Nuggets OVER

The books have simply set the mark too low on tonight's total between the Blazers and Nuggets. While Portland is still fighting for playoff position, they are ensured that they won't finish worth than 6th. That's huge, as it means they will avoid having to face the Spurs and Warriors in the first round. 

The key here is the Blazers haven't been playing a whole lot of defense of late, even with them fighting for position. Portland has allowed at least 106 points in 4 straight games and 100+ in 11 of their last 14 overall.

I look for there woes to continue here against the Nuggets. While Denver only managed 84 in their last game, it came against one of the best defensive teams in the Jazz. Prior to that the Nuggets had scored 100+ in 3 straight. Defensively the Nuggets have allowed 100+ in 13 of their 14 and are giving up 105 ppg on the season. 

OVER is 10-2 in the Blazers last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 7-3 in the Nuggets last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER

I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. 

Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational Total No Brainer on Nets/Knicks UNDER

These two teams don't exactly like each other, which is a good sign that both will come out with some energy on the defensive side of the ball. With the way their offenses are playing, I believe we are getting some great value here with a total over 200 points. 

Brooklyn managed just 87 points on 37% shooting in their last game and aren't in a good spot to bounce back. The Nets will not only be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. Brooklyn will have no choice but to slow the tempo down and they already rank 21st in the league in pace. 

New York won't mind the slower tempo, as they rank 25th in pace. The Knicks also will be missing a huge piece of their offense, as Porzingis is doubtful with a shoulder injury and point guard Jose Calderon is questionable with a quad injury. Keep in mind that New York is coming into this game struggling offensively. They have scored 93 or less in each of their last 3 and 94 or fewer in 8 of their last 10. 

UNDER is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss, 13-3 in their last 16 home games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Pacers OVER

While the Celtics failed to score 100+ for the first time in 9 games in their last game and the Pacers managed just 75 points at Atlanta last time out, I look for both offenses to put on a show tonight. The Celtics 98-point effort against the Rockets was simply a result of an off night shooting. Boston comes in averaging 106.1 ppg. 

Both of these team rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Celtics the better of the two at No. 3. With Boston coming into this game having not played since last Friday, we can expect the Celtics to be running up and down the floor. They should be able to have their way with a Pacers defense that has given up 100+ in two straight. 

I also look for Indiana to score at will here. The Celtics are giving up 103.7 ppg on the road overall and have allowed 113.6 ppg over their last 5 away from home. No surprise, every one of those games finished over the total. 

OVER is 38-15 in Boston's last 53 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest and the OVER is 36-7 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more where you have a team playing 3 or less games in 10 days that has lost 2 of their last 3. OVER is also 46-19 on Tuesday over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a road blowout loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* Cavs/Clippers NBA Heavy Hitter on UNDER

I'm expecting both teams to come out sluggish, which should lead to a much lower scoring game than the books are expecting. Rarely do you see teams on the west coast playing this early in the day and on top of that, players have to adjust to daylight savings time. This is also a big time matchup, which tends to lead to a lot more effort on the defensive end. 

Both of teams can light it up offensively and that overshadows how good they are defensively. Both of these teams rank in the Top 8 in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is only giving up 97 ppg on the road and the Clippers are allowing just 98.8 ppg at home. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Cavaliers last 17 after covering 4 of their last 5, 22-10 in their last 32 games played on Sunday and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record, 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 22-5 in their last 27 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!