Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 195 | Top | 91-106 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 195 Bottom Line: These two teams combined for 191 points in Game 1 with an identical total of 195. Cleveland clearly isn't the same offensive team without Love and Smith to stretch the floor, making it unlikely they see a huge spike in their offensive production in Game 2. Chicago on the other hand could see their offense take a step back. Rose has not been the same player on just 1 day of rest, Butler's using most of his energy guarding LeBron and the Cavs are to make adjustments to not let Gasol shoot wide-open jumpers. I have this one finishing in the mid to low 180's. Pound the UNDER 195! |
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05-05-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +10 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies + Bottom Line: The Warriors dominated Game 1 by 15-points, but I'm not expecting things to be easy for Golden State in Game 2. Memphis is expected to have Conley back and he's going to have a big impact on both sides of the ball. Grizzlies defense played well in the series opener, they just couldn't get anything going from the outside. Memphis not only has a chance to cover the spread, but if Conley does in fact play they could very well win this game outright. Pound the Grizzlies +10! |
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05-04-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 196 | Top | 99-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 196 Bottom Line: Without Kevin Love and J.R. Smith the Cavaliers lose a lot offensively, but should be improved defensively with more playing time for Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert. I think this is an extremely evenly matched series right now and these two teams understand the importance of getting off to a strong start. I look for both to bring their best efforts on the defensive end and for this game to fly under the total of 196. Pound the UNDER! |
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05-03-15 | Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks -5 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 27 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -5 Bottom Line: The Hawks aren't getting enough respect here as a mere 5-point home favorite. Atlanta destroyed Washington in their two home games during the regular season and I feel like the Hawks got some of their mojo back at the end of their opening series against the Nets. The Wizards looked impressive in their easy series win over the Raptors, but Toronto hadn't been playing well coming into the playoffs. I also think the Wizards will be a bit rustry coming off that long lay-off. Pound the Hawks -5! |
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05-02-15 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs + Bottom Line: The road team has actually had the upper hand in this series and the Spurs have positioned themselves to go on the road and win Game 7. LA had to use up a lot of energy to pull out Game 6 in San Antonio and you could see how tired they were. I look for the Clippers to keep it close early, but for the Spurs to take control in the 4th quarter and advance on to the next round. San Antonio knows what it takes to win a Game 7 and aren't going to be the least bit effected by this game being on the road. Pound the Spurs +2.5! |
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05-01-15 | Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 111-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -3.5 Bottom Line: Brooklyn has played better than anyone expected to this point, but the Nets run ends tonight. Atlanta is too good a team to let this drag out any longer, similar to what we saw last night with the Bulls laying it on the Bucks in Game 5. The Nets have simply overachieved and aren't catching enough points here at home to cover. I like Atlanta to win here and to do so convincingly. Pound the Hawks -3.5! |
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04-30-15 | Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 120-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -3.5 Bottom Line: I'm not buying the Bucks winning a 3rd straight game in this series. Milwaukee has clearly been the more motivated team in the last two games, but that's not going to be the case here tonight. Chicago has made it clear they know they need to pick up the intensity and with a full 2 days to get things figured out, I look for the Bulls to come out and dominate this game right from the finish. The extra day of rest should help Rose get his legs back under him and allow him to be the force he was in the first 3 of this series. Chicago quits messing around and punches their ticket to the conference quarterfinals. Pound the Bulls -3.5! |
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04-29-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200.5 | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Hawks U200.5 Bottom Line: These two teams combined to score 191 or less in each of the first 3 games in the series before going off for 235 in a overtime contest in Game 4. The important thing to note is that they only combined for 208 in regulation and that was with both teams shooting lights out from the field. With the series sitting at 2-2 and so much on the line in Game 5, I'm expecting it to return to a grind it out game that finishes around the 185-190 mark. Pound the UNDER 200.5! |
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04-28-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 221.5 Bottom Line: Due to these two teams flying over the total in their last two games, oddsmakers have been forced to drastically inflate tonight's total, creating some big time value on the UNDER at 221.5. Both teams have shot light 47% or better in each of the last two games and that's simply not going to hold up. Houston isn't going to let Dallas continue to run up and down the floor and the Mavericks aren't going to be as strong shooting the ball on the road. I look for a similar result here to Game 2, which the Rockets won 111-99. Pound the UNDER 221.5! |
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04-27-15 | Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on Hawks -4.5 Bottom Line: The Hawks have not played up to their potential so far in this series and as a result they are showing some big time value here as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn allowed opponents to shoot 45.3% from the field during the regular season, which is why I'm not buying the Hawks offensive struggles being a result of the Nets defense. Atlanta is due for an offensive explosion and I look for them to win here comfortably. Pound the Hawks -4.5! |
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04-26-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
5* LAC/SA WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +6 Bottom Line: Love the value we are getting here with the Clippers as a 6-point dog. LA shot a miserable 34% from the field in Game 3, which in turn has jumped this line up a full 1.5-points from what it was listed at for Game 3. Easy for the public to fall in love with the Spurs after that great performance, especially after what they did last year. Clippers will be better offensively as they have to big of advantages with Paul and Griffin. Better shooting will have a strong impact on their play defensively. I got this one going right down to the wire and could definitely see LA winning this one outright. Pound the Clippers +6! |
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04-25-15 | Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -4.5 Bottom Line: I believe the Bucks are both emotionally and physically drained from Thursday's double-overtime loss at home in Game 3. Chicago now has a 3-0 advantage in the series and I don't see them letting their foot off the gas in a close out game. Teams with a 3-0 series lead have covered the spread in Game 4 60% of the time since 2002 and 63% of the time in the 1st round. Pound the Bulls -4.5! |
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04-24-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 203 | Top | 73-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers/Spurs UNDER 203 Bottom Line: These two teams only managed to score 188 points in Game 2, but a 30-point overtime period pushed the final score to 118 and well over the total set for that game of 206.5. Keep in mind that the two only managed 199 points in Game 1 with a total of 208. Defensive gets an edge the more the series progresses and with this one tied at 1-1 and there being such a big advantage to going up 2-1, I think we are going to see this one fly under the mark. You also have to factor in Spurs are forced to play an injured Tony Parker and without him at full strength they must slow the pace to keep it close. Pound the UNDER 203! |
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04-23-15 | Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans +5 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +5 Bottom Line: Warriors are getting a little too much respect here against a Pelicans team that has shown they can hang with the league's top team. New Orleans has shown they can win at home in a big spot like they will be facing tonight, as they held off the Spurs in the regular season finale 108-103 to punch their ticket to the postseason and knock San Antonio out of the No.2 seed. Other key thing here is I believe the Warriors know they are the better team and with a 2-0 series lead this is a prime spot for them to suffer a letdown. It's also worth noting that New Orleans won 103-100 as a 4.5-point home dog against the Warriors down the stretch on 4/7. Pound the Pelicans +5! |
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04-22-15 | Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 190 | Top | 82-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Blazers/Wizards UNDER 190 Bottom Line: Memphis isn't a team that likes to push the ball. They want to grind it out and let their stingy defense do all the work. Their defense matches up extremely well with Portland's two starts Lillard and Aldridge, leaving the Blazers without any reliable options to turn to on the offensive end. The key here is that being down 0-1 is going to have Portland coming out extremely motivated on the defensive end, especially after how easily Memphis's offense scored in Game 1 (had 86 points after 3 quarters before scoring just 14 in the 4th with a 24-point lead). UNDER is 13-1 in Memphis's last 14 home games after allowing a shooting percentage of 35% or less and 26-8 in Blazers last 34 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses. Pound the UNDER 190! |
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04-21-15 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors OVER 192.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards/Raptors OVER 192.5 Bottom Line: After watching these two teams combine for just 179 points in an overtime affair in Game 1, the books have adjusted this total by quite a bit from the 194.5 line we saw in the opener. Typically I like to play a lot of unders in the postseason, but there's too much value here to pass up. These are two really good offenses. Wizards averaged 98.5 ppg and Toronto 103.8 ppg. Both teams shot under 40% in Game 1 and that's simply not going to last. I think this one will eclipse the 200 mark. Pound the OVER 192.5! |
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04-20-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 187 Bottom Line: With Milwaukee in a desperate spot here trying to avoid an 0-2 hole and the Bulls equally motivated to take a 2-0 lead, I look for a tight low-scoring game. These two combined for 194 in Game 1 to go over the total of 186, but the important thing to note is they combined for just 83 points in the 2nd half after an offensive explosion in the 1st half. Each of the previous four meetings during the regular season all had a combined score of 186 or less and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they failed to reach 175 tonight. Pound the UNDER 187! |
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04-19-15 | Brooklyn Nets +10.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +10.5 Bottom Line: I know the Hawks dominated the regular season series, but 10.5-points is a lot to ask a team to cover by in the playoffs. Brooklyn can be a good team when they decide to show up and play and that shouldn't be an issue given this is the playoffs. I look for the Nets to keep it surprisingly close and cover this double-digit spread without any problem. Road underdogs of 10 or more, who have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are 27-7 (79%) ATS in April. Pound Brooklyn +10.5! |
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04-18-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 186 | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 186 Bottom Line: While Chicago's defense wasn't as dominant as it's been in years past, don't let that fool you. The Bulls got after it on that side of the ball when they needed to. With the intensity that comes with the playoffs and the fact that they are arguably as healthy as they have been all season, I look for them to make life miserable for the Bucks. Keep in mind they held Milwaukee to just 84.8 ppg in the 4 meetings during the regular season. Bucks are also a solid defensive team and know they can't get in a shootout if they want any chance to win this game. These two teams combined for 186, 158, 182 and 181 in their 4 regular season meetings. Pound the UNDER 186! |
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04-15-15 | Utah Jazz +11.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 91-117 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +11.5 Bottom Line: With Utah out of the playoff picture and Houston desperately needing a win here to ensure they get homecourt in the first round and potentially the No. 2 seed if the Spurs were to lose at New Orleans, the oddsmakers have inflated this line by quite a bit, creating some great value on the Jazz. Utah has won 7 of 9 with their two losses coming by a combined 3-points. This team has really came on strong down the stretch and while I don't expect them to win, I really like their chances of keeping it close enough to cover. Pound the Jazz +11.5! |
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04-14-15 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 192.5 | Top | 95-99 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 192.5 Bottom Line: With the Nets loss at home to the Bulls last night, the door has been left open for the Pacers to make the playoffs. Indiana simply needs to win out to take the 8th and final spot in the east. I'm expecting playoff-like intensity from the Pacers in this one. Washington doesn't have a whole lot to play for, but are trying to get some momentum built for the playoffs. While these two teams combined for 204 points in their most recent meeting, each of the previous 7 matchups saw the two teams combine for 190 or fewer points. Pound the UNDER 192.5! |
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04-13-15 | Orlando Magic +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +7.5 Bottom Line: Orlando is showing great value here as a 7.5-point dog, as I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. While Miami is technically still alive for the 8th and final playoff spot, they are 2-games back of both Brooklyn and Indiana. They would need to win out and have both of those teams lose their final 2. Wade already seems to think their season is over..."Injuries are part of the game. It's not always who is the most talented team. It's who can stay the healthiest and we weren't able to do that this year to give ourselves a chance," Hard for Miami to show up for this one. Pound the Magic +7.5! |
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04-12-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Houston Rockets -5.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets -5.5 Bottom Line: Houston enters off a back-to-back losses to the Spurs, including a heartbreaking 103-104 home defeat to San Antonio in their last game. This sets up two profitable situations to back the Rockets here. Houston is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when they enter off a home loss. In both situations the Rockets are winning on average by 8.5+ points/game. Pound the Rockets -5.5! |
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04-11-15 | Utah Jazz +6.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6.5 Bottom Line: This is a great spot to fade the Trail Blazers, who while mathematically are still alive for home court in the first round are all but locked in as the No. 4 seed and will have to begin their opening series on the road. Having recently lost Wesley Mattews and Dorell Wright for the season and watching Arron Afflalo suffer an injury that will have him sidelined for 1-2 weeks in their last game, Portland's primary focus over their last 3 games is to stay healthy. LaMarcus Aldridge isn't going to play tonight and I just don't see the Blazers showing up for this one. Utah is out to prove something and build for next year and wouldn't be surprised at all if they won outright. Pound the Jazz +6.5! |
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04-10-15 | Phoenix Suns v. New Orleans Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 75-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans -8.5 Bottom Line: Whenever a team like the Suns that had realistic expectations of making the playoffs and has been officially eliminated, chances are they aren't going to show up, especially on the road. That's exactly the case we have here and adding even more value is that this is essentially a playoff game for the Pelicans, who control their own destiny for the No. 8 seed in the west. An unmotivated Phoenix team that doesn't have the size inside to contend with Anthony Davis points to a big blowout for New Orleans. Pound the Pelicans -8.5! |
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04-09-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 208.5 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *TOTAL KNOCKOUT* on Blazers/Warriors OVER 208.5 Bottom Line: Golden State is coming off a couple of less than impressive offensive performances by their standards, both of which resulted in losses. They managed just 92 points on 43% shooting in a loss at San Antonio and 100 on 44% shooting in a defeat at New Orleans. I look for the offensive to return to form at home, where the Warriors are averaging 112.9 ppg. Helping matters is that the Blazers won't be able to give their best effort defensively in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Warriors will be focused offensively as Curry goes for the MVP, but with everything locked up I don't expect great effort defensively, which should lead to this one flying over the total. Pound the OVER 208.5! |
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04-08-15 | Atlanta Hawks +6 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +6 Bottom Line: Most assume Atlanta isn't going to take this game seriously in the 2nd day of a back-to-back set, but the Hawks have made it clear that they are putting an emphasis on closing out the season strong. There's also some hidden value here with Atlanta, as they hold the rights to the Nets 1st round pick if Brooklyn fails to make the playoffs. The Hawks seem to have had that in the back of their minds in the first three meetings this season. Atlanta won 98-75 at Brooklyn on Dec. 5, 113-10 at home on Jan. 28 and just this past Saturday won at home 131-99. Even if some of the Hawks key players rest, Atlanta has the depth to keep this close and likely win outright. Pound the Hawks +6! |
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04-07-15 | Los Angeles Lakers +17.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *GAME OF THE MONTH* on Lakers +17.5 Bottom Line: There's no denying that the Clippers are the better team and could easily beat the Lakers by 20+ points if they wanted to, but I don't think the intensity is going to be there. These two teams just played 2-days ago with the Clippers routing the Lakers 106-78 as a 13.5-point favorite. The Clippers know all they have to do is show up to get a win and with a much-needed 3-day break on the horizon, I don't expect to see their best effort. On the flip side of this, the Lakers will be motivated to at least keep it respectable and it's not really asking a lot for them to keep it within 17-points. Lakers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Pound the Lakers +17.5! |
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04-05-15 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 190 | Top | 89-112 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Heat/Pacers UNDER 190 Bottom Line: Miami and Indiana are both on the outside looking in at the playoffs, but both aren't far back. The Heat trail 8th place Boston by 1/2-game and the Pacers are just 1-game back of Miami. This is going to feel like a playoff game for both teams and I look for it to lead to a defensive showdown, as both of these teams are built to win games with their defense. UNDER is 12-1 in the Heat's last 13 games when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) and 11-3 in the Pacers last 14 home games with a total of 190 to 194.5. Pound the UNDER 190! |
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04-04-15 | Boston Celtics +3 v. Toronto Raptors | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* Bottom Line: Books are begging you to take Toronto as a small home favorite, but I believe the smart play here is on Boston, who has a lot more to play for. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Raptors rested some of their key players and those that do play just go through the motions. Raptors are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after playing 2 straight on the road, while Boston is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after failing to cover in their last game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when playing their 5th game in 7 days. Pound the Celtics +3! |
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04-03-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Boston Celtics -5.5 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* The Bucks come in off a 95-91 home win over the Bulls as a 5-point dog, which might make them seem like a good bet as a 5.5-point road dog against the Celtics. I don't believe that's the case, as Milwaukee have lost 11 straight on the road. Keep in mind that Boston was a 7.5-point home favorite earlier this season against the Bucks and won that contest 108-100. Milwaukee is also just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 off an upset win at home as an underdog against a division opponent, while Boston is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after 2 or more consecutive wins. Pound the Celtics -5.5! |
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04-02-15 | Phoenix Suns +12.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Suns +12.5 Bottom Line: Golden State is being way overvalued here due to the fact that they are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS (8 straight) in their last 10 games. The key thing to keep in mind is that the Warriors have locked up the No. 1 seed in the west and have a 5.5-game lead over Atlanta for the No. 1 overall seed. They are also coming off an emotional come-from-behind win at Los Angeles (Clippers), who they hadn't beat on the road since 2013. This is do or die for the Suns, who are 4-games back of OKC for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 off a loss by 10+ points, while Golden State is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when playing on 1 day of rest. Pound the Suns +12.5! |
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04-01-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 | Top | 126-122 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -2.5 Bottom Line: This is a great spot to fade the Clippers, who laid everything on the line in last night's home loss to the Warriors and now must turn around and play on the road against a red-hot Portland team that has won 4 straight. The big key here is that LA's starters racked up huge minutes last night and simply aren't going to have enough gas in the tank at this point in the season to play up to their potential on the road against a top level team like the Blazers. Portland is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against explosive offensive teams that average 103+ ppg and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after covering the number in 3 of their last 4. Pound the Blazers -2.5! |
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03-31-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 199 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers/Nets UNDER 199 Bottom Line: The Nets are currently 1/2 game ahead of the Pacers for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference. This is essentially a playoff game for these two teams and that should lead to max effort on the defensive end. Had it not been for these two teams combining for 134 points in a recent meeting on 3/21, this total would be a lot closer to 190 than 200. Prior to the offensive outburst in the last meeting, these two teams had combined for 199 or less in each of their previous 5 matchups. Pound the UNDER 199! |
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03-30-15 | Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors -1 | Top | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors -1 Bottom Line: Houston is getting too much respect here against the Raptors. While the Rockets have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, they find themselves playing on no rest and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Not to mention they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 visits to Toronto and 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after winning 2 or more consecutive games. Raptors head coach Casey is 35-19 ATS over last 54 when revenging a road loss of 10+ points. Pound Toronto -1! |
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03-29-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies + Bottom Line: We are seeing a huge overreaction here that has the Grizzlies showing some big time value as a 8-point dog against their division rivals. Memphis is coming into this game off back-to-back blowout losses to the Cavs and Warriors. I look for them to come out extremely motivated here against San Antonio, who is overvalued right now. Spurs are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games against the Southwest, while Memphis is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Pound the Grizzlies +8! |
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03-27-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 206.5 | Top | 76-94 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs/Mavs OVER 206.5 Bottom Line: These two teams played in Dallas on Tuesday and combined for just 195 points with a total set at 207. The fact that the books have came right back with essentially the same number, lets us know they aren't concerned about the low-scoring game last time out. Spurs are averaging 107.4 ppg at home on the season and 118.0 ppg over their last 8 home games. Mavs have scored 100+ in 5 of their last 6. OVER is 20-8 in Spurs last 28 home games when listed as a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and 8-1 in their last 9 home games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. Pound the OVER 206.5! |
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03-25-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Charlotte Hornets OVER 196.5 | Top | 91-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
5* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Hornets OVER 196.5 Bottom Line: Both of these teams are really struggling on the defensive end right now. Charlotte is giving up 98.0 ppg over their last 5, while the Nets are allowing a staggering 114.2 ppg over their last 5. On top of that, these two teams have a history of playing in high scoring games. Each of the last 4 has seen a combined score of more than 200 points. OVER is 4-1 in Nets last 5 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 following a SU loss of more than 10 points. OVER is also 6-0 in Hornets last 6 when playing on 1 days rest and 5-1 in their last 6 at home. Pound the OVER 196.5! |
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03-24-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks +3.5 | Top | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5 Bottom Line: I'm expecting Dallas to come out with one of their best efforts after a 92-98 loss at Phoenix, which head coach Rick Carlisle labeled and "embarrassment." Dallas has played the Spurs as well as anyone over the last couple of seasons and are too strong a team to be laying 3.5-points at home. Home underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite are 34-10 (77%) ATS since 1996 in a game involving two teams that have won between 60% and 75% of their games. Pound the Mavericks +3.5! |
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03-23-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 86-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -6 Bottom Line: Chicago won't have any trouble getting motivated for this one, as they come in off a 16-point loss at Detroit in their last contest, plus will be playing with double-revenge, which includes a recent loss at Charlotte just 10 days ago. While it may appear the Hornets cruised to a 11-point win over the Timberwolves last night, they actually trailed by 5-points at the half. Not only will Charlotte be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days and 5th overall on their current road trip. Hornets are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 after playing 4 straight on the road, while Chicago is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Pound the Bulls -6! |
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03-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Atlanta Hawks -1.5 | Top | 114-95 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -1.5 Bottom Line: The Hawks are showing some big time value here as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Spurs. Atlanta is also going to be extremely motivated in this spot after losing back-to-back games at Golden State and Oklahoma City. They will also be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 92-94 loss at San Antonio earlier this season. Atlanta models themselves after the Spurs and I believe this game is more important to them than some might think. Not to mention they are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 when playing against a team with a winning record, 23-8 in their last 31 with a total set at 200 to 209.5 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when listed as a favorite of 6 points or less. Pound the Hawks -1.5! |
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03-21-15 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -3 Bottom Line: The Bulls won 108-92 at home over the Raptors last night for their second straight 20+ point win and I look for them to keep the momentum going with another easy win here against Detroit. The Pistons have completely fallen apart, going just 1-11 over their last 12 games and are expected to be without Greg Monroe. Road favorites (CHICAGO) - after 4 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average teams with a +/- 3 PPG differential are 27-8 (77%) ATS since 1996! |
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03-20-15 | Denver Nuggets +7 v. Miami Heat | Top | 91-108 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +7 Bottom Line: The Nuggets are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back here, but I believe we have seen an overreaction with the spread because of it. Denver has been playing much better since firing Brian Shaw and I look for them to come out and surprise the Heat, who are in line for a letdown after two big home wins over the Cavaliers and Trail Blazers. Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100+ points. Miami is 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 following a SU win. Pound the Nuggets +7! |
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03-19-15 | Utah Jazz -4 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -4 Bottom Line: The Jazz are in a perfect spot to back off a disappointing home loss to the Wizards last night, which snapped their 6-game winning streak. Utah will not only be motivated to bounce back from that defeat, but they will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost the last meeting at home to the Lakers 97-100 back on Feb. 25. Utah is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 when revenging a loss where they allowed the opponent to score 100 points, 19-9 ATS in their last 28 after failing to cover the number in their last game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 revenging a same season loss. Pound the Jazz -4! |
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03-18-15 | Washington Wizards v. Utah Jazz -3 | Top | 88-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -3 Bottom Line: The Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA right now. Utah has won 6 straight and are 13-3 over their last 16 overall. Washington comes in having won 4 straight, but three of those wins came at home. They did beat the Hornets in their last road game, but prior to that had dropped 9 straight. Utah has won 3 straight and 7 of 8 at home against the Wizards and I look for them to add to that streak with any win and cover tonight. Teams who have led by 5 or more points at the half in each of their last 3 games (Utah) against an opponent that scored 60+ in the first half of their last game are 41-18 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Jazz -3! |
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03-17-15 | Orlando Magic +11.5 v. Houston Rockets | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* on Magic +11.5 Bottom Line: Orlando has thrived in the roll of the underdog when playing on the road. The Magic are 22-11 ATS this season as a road dog and 14-6 ATS when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Houston on the other hand is just 51-76 ATS in their last 127 games when listed as a favorite of 10 or more points. To top it off we have a strong system backing a play on the Magic. Underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover two or more straight games, who are a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games are 226-157 (59%) ATS since 1996. Pound Orlando +11.5! |
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03-16-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | Top | 115-119 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks -5.5 Bottom Line: Oklahoma City has dropped 3 of their last 4 on the road with the only winning coming against the lowly Lakers. While Westbrook has done everything in his power to keep the Thunder competitive, I don't like their chances on the road against the Mavericks with Ibaka being downgraded to doubtful and Durant still sidelined. Dallas has a big advantage here playing on 2 days rest, while Oklahoma City will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a team with a winning home record, while Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win by more than 10 points. Pound the Mavericks -5.5! |
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03-15-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 206.5 | Top | 100-109 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls/Thunder UNDER 206.5 Bottom Line: Games played on Sunday have a stronger tendency to go UNDER the total, especially ones like we have here with an early start time. I'll take my chances on this one finishing well below the mark. While these two teams combined for 213 points back on March 5, that should actually benefit a lower scoring game. Adding to this is that the UNDER is 12-4 in the Bulls last 16 road games when listed as an underdog, 8-0 in Chicago's last 8 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 12-3 in the Thunder's last 15 home games off a home win by 10 or more points. Pound the UNDER 206.5! |
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03-14-15 | Brooklyn Nets -5.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nets -5.5 Bottom Line: As bad as the Nets have been playing of late, I will gladly take my chances on them coming away with a win here against the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off a rare win last night against the Kings and have struggled to put together two strong performances in a row. Brooklyn is desperate for a win and that extra motivation against a horrible team like the 76ers should be more than enough for us to get a win and cover here. Pound the Nets -5.5! |
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03-13-15 | Detroit Pistons +8.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 99-118 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* on Pistons +8.5 Bottom Line: Portland was able to hold on for a 105-100 win at home over the Rockets in their last game, which I believe has them overvalued here against the Pistons, who are clearly getting no respect after losing 8 straight. I don't know that Detroit will have enough to win this game outright, but I'm expecting a closely contested game that comes right down to the wire. Detroit is 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or better and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after a SU loss. Portland is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs the Eastern Conference and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Pound the Pistons +8.5! |
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03-12-15 | Houston Rockets -2 v. Utah Jazz | 91-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets -2 Bottom Line: I believe the books are over-adjusting here due to the fact that the Rockets are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Houston had 3 days off prior to last night's game at Portland and should have more than enough energy to come away with a win on the road against the Jazz. The Rockets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a losing record, 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100+ points in their last game. Pound Houston -2! |
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03-11-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Boston Celtics +4.5 | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* on Celtics +4.5 Bottom Line: Couple of key factors favoring a fade of the Grizzlies. First, Memphis has struggled to play up to their potential against bad teams, as they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. Second, the Grizzlies are playing their 3rd straight on the road and 6th game overall in the last 9 days. Memphis is just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 when playing 6 or more games in a span of 10 days. Boston on the other hand is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home. Pound the Celtics +4.5! |
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03-10-15 | Detroit Pistons -2.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -2.5 Bottom Line: Both these teams come in riding length losing streaks. The Pistons have dropped six straight, while the Lakers have lost 5 in a row. Detroit is more than capable of snapping out of this funk, while Los Angeles is an NBA-worst 4-21 since Jan. 11. The big problem for the Pistons has been their poor shooting from their guards, which is important to note, as the Lakers have had a horrible time slowing down opposing guards. Perfect spot for Detroit to right their ship, plus it's worth noting that they are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games after a combined score of 205+ in their last constest and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3. Pound the Pistons -2.5! |
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03-09-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 76-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +7.5 Bottom Line: These two teams faced off in Minnesota last Monday, with the Clippers escaping with a 110-105 win. Teams playing with revenge tend to have a bigger edge when that last meeting came within the last 10 days and I look for the Timberwolves to keep this one surprisingly close. The Clippers are still without two of their best players in Griffin and Crawford and Paul is dealing with a knee injury that figures to limit his production. Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their last game, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs the Western Conference and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Pound the Timberwolves +7.5! |
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03-08-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Oklahoma City Thunder -6 | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
5* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder -6 Bottom Line: Perfect spot to back the Thunder at home off back-to-back losses, especially against a Toronto team that is in the midst of a major funk. The Raptors have dropped 7 of their last 8 overall. OKC is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and teams that have gone over the total by 6 or more points in 5 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996. Pound the Thunder -6! |
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03-07-15 | Washington Wizards +4.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 85-91 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +4.5 Bottom Line: Washington somehow didn't cover last night against the Heat at home after jumping out to a 35-point lead. The most important thing was they got the win and showed signs of life after an awful stretch of basketball. I look for the Wizards to come out with that same intensity against a Milwaukee team that is in the middle of a major slump, having lost 4 straight and 6 of 7 overall. Washington is 25-14 ATS in their last 39 road games after playing their last game at home, while Bucks are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 hoem games when revenging a home loss. Pound the Wizards +4.5! |
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03-06-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -2.5 | Top | 108-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -2.5 Bottom Line: Value here is clearly with the Nets, who are being undervalued due to losing by 24-points at home in their last game. Brooklyn was in a major letdown spot after a big win over the Warriors and I look for them to come out extremely motivated and cash in an easy cover against a Phoenix team that has trailed by at least 15-points in each of their last 3 games. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs, who are averaging 102+ ppg against an opponent that is allowing 98-102 ppg are just 13-38 (25%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Nets -2.5! |
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03-05-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 199 | Top | 75-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks/Blazers UNDER 199 Bottom Line: The books have set the mark too high for this one. Portland isn't going to be looking to push the pace after laying everything they had on the line in last night's overtime win at Los Angeles and Dallas is not the same dynamic offense since acquiring Rondo. Not to mention the Mavericks will be without one of their top offensive weapons in Chandler Parsons and we can expect max effort defensively here in a nationally televised game on TNT. UNDER is 6-1 in the Mavs last 7 road games and 9-2-1 in their last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 games played on Thursday and 5-1 in their last 6 playing on 0 days rest where the starting 5 accounted for more than 160 minutes. Pound the UNDER 199! |
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03-04-15 | Phoenix Suns -4 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH* on Suns -4 Bottom Line: Phoenix is being way undervalued here due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout losses to the Spurs (74-101) and Heat (98-115). This is a perfect spot for them to bounce back against a Magic team that isn't any good and is playing with zero confidence off 3 straight losses. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 33-9 (79%) ATS since 1996! Pound the Suns -4! |
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03-03-15 | Houston Rockets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 199 | Top | 96-104 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
5* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets/Hawks UNDER 199 Bottom Line: The Rockets are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, averaging 103.3 ppg, but that's largely been due to the play of Harden, who is in the running for the league MVP. Harden won't be in action tonight and I believe it's created some great value here on the total. Atlanta is only giving up 95.1 ppg at home and offensively are averaging just 93.8 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 5-0 in the Rockets last 5 after allowing 100 or more in their last game and 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 after a SU win. Pound the UNDER 199! |
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03-02-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets +6.5 | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +6.5 Bottom Line: The Warriors are 7-3 SU and just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games, which goes to show the book are clearly inflating their lines. I believe that's the case again tonight, as Golden State should not be laying 6-points on the road in this spot. The Warriors are coming off a draining 106-101 win at Boston yesterday, which saw them rally from 26 down. Plus, Golden State is playing their 4th game in 5 days, which should have them lacking any sort of motivation or energy for this road game. Brooklyn has played much better since the break going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, plus are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 in the 2nd half against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. Pound the Nets +6! |
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03-01-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Thunder -3.5 Bottom Line: Even without Westbrook and Durant sidelined, I look for the Thunder to have no problem leaving Los Angeles with an easy victory over the Lakers. The fact that Oklahoma City is short-handed is going to take away a lot of motivation for Los Angeles to play hard, which is a key factor that often times gets overlooked. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) against a horrible defensive team (102+ ppg) after 42+ games and after a game where both teams in their last contest scored 105+ are 36-11 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Thunder -3.5! |
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02-28-15 | Atlanta Hawks -5.5 v. Miami Heat | 93-91 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks - Bottom Line: This is a great price to back Atlanta. The Hawks are returning to form after a minor slump and are the more equipped team out of these two excel in a back-to-back set. Miami is not a good team and have really struggled at home this year, going just 10-16 SU and 9-17 ATS. Atlanta is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after winning 3 of their last 4 and should have no problem here winning by 6+ points against the Heat. Pound the Hawks -5.5! |
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02-27-15 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets +4 | 104-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* on Nuggets + Bottom Line: As bad as the Nuggets have been playing of late, they should not be a home dog to the Jazz, especially with Utah coming in off a bad home loss to the Lakers. Denver will be getting back both Kenneth Faried and Wilscon Chandler from injury, which I believe will be enough to not only have them covering the spread, but winning this game outright. Pound the Nuggets +4! |
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02-27-15 | Brooklyn Nets +6.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +6.5 Bottom Line: The Nets are being undervalued here at home off a 96-102 road loss at New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. Brooklyn has quietly been playing much better of late and that's evident by their 7-4 ATS record over their last 11 games. This is a great spot to back the Nets, as Houston could be missing both Harden and Beverley (questionable) and are in a major lookahead spot with a nationally televised home games against the Cavs on deck. Pound the Nets +6.5! |
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02-27-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 197 | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR* on Cavs/Pacers UNDER 197 Bottom Line: The Cavaliers will be without point guard Kyrie Irving and aren't going to have the legs to run up the score after playing a huge home game against the Warriors last night. Indiana has quietly won 6 of 8 and have done so with their defense. These two teams recently played on Feb. 6, so there's some familiarity with each others offense, adding value to the under. Not to mention the UNDER is 9-2 in the Cavs last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-10 in their last 32 overall. UNDER is also 5-2 in Pacers last 7 off a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 100+. Pound the UNDER 197! |
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02-26-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE TNT WINNER* on Cavaliers -3.5 Bottom Line: This will likely be the last time during the regular season where we will find the Cavaliers this small a home favorite. Cleveland got off to a slow start, but have quickly turned things around and have shown no signs of slowing down. The Cavaliers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cleveland lost at GS earlier this year, but were without James. They aren't going to lose the rematch at home, especially in a nationally televised game. Pound the Cavaliers -3.5! |
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02-25-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings +7 | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* on Kings +7 Bottom Line: The Kings come into this one well rested off a 3-day break and have recently got a renewed sense of energy with the addition of George Karl as their new head coach. Sacramento will be highly motivated here off a 27-point road loss to the Clippers and are catching the Grizzlies in a big letdown spot after two huge road wins against the Trail Blazers and Clippers. Kings are 34-17 ATS in their last 51 home games as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and the Grizzlies are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams who are getting outscored by 3 or more points/game. Pound the Kings +7! |
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02-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets OVER 214.5 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets/Clippers OVER 214.5 Bottom Line: Whenever the Rockets match up against a team that likes to play at a fast pace, there's a good chance it will go over the total. In fact, the OVER is 24-13 in Houston's last 37 games against up-tempo teams who are averaging 83 or more shots per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Clippers last 5 against an opponent that just allowed 100+ points and 6-1 in the Rockets last 7 after a SU win by more than 10 points. Pound the OVER 214.5! |
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02-24-15 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 92-105 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* on Pacers +7 Bottom Line: The Pacers have won 6 of 7 and come in off an impressive 104-98 home win over the Warriors. While that win may appear to put Indiana in a letdown spot, they aren't going to get a big head due to Golden State being without Steph Curry. I look for them to take the same approach against the Thunder, who will be without Durant. Key here is the Pacers are on a roll offensively, hitting 47% from the field while averaging 102.4 ppg over their last 5. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have shot 47% or better from the field in 3 straight games are 79-46 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons! Pound Indiana +7! |
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02-23-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Houston Rockets | 102-113 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE UNDERDOG* on Timberwolves +9 Bottom Line: The Timberwolves have won 4 of their last 6 games and have been playing much better basketball since getting Rubio back healthy. However, Minnesota is still be valued based on their overall record, which makes them an easy play tonight against the Rockets. Houston is coming off a big home game against the Raptors and have an even bigger game on deck against the Clippers on Wednesday, which they will be out for revenge from a 15-point loss at LA just a couple weeks ago. Timberwolves are a profitable 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games revenging a home loss. Pound Minnesota +9! |
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02-22-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Orlando Magic -8 | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Magic -8 Bottom Line: The 76ers got worse at the trade deadline, shipping away two of their best players in Carter-Williams and McDaniels. Philadelphia doesn't have the talent to keep up on the road, even against an average team like the Magic. Orlando has looked a lot better since making a change at head coach and I look for them to have no problem winning here by double-digits. Road underdogs who are averaging 16+ turnovers/game are just 133-204 (39%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Pound Orlando -8! |
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02-21-15 | New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *EASTERN CONF GAME OF THE MONTH* on Pelicans +1.5 Bottom Line: The Heat returned from the All-Star break with an impressive 111-87 road win over the Knicks, which might make it appear like Miami is a safe bet at home against a Pelicans team that has lost 4 straight, including a 84-95 loss at Orlando last night. However, the Heat are not nearly as good at home as they are on the road. Miami is 9-15 at home, compared to 14-15 on the road. New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing on no rest and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss. Pound the Pelicans +1.5! |
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02-20-15 | Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 211 | Top | 100-111 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH* Bottom Line: Each of the last 3 times these two teams have faced off in Dallas, they have combined for at least 220 points and I see no reason why that trend won't continue tonight. Both of these teams like to play at a fast pace and shouldn't have any problem pushing the pace given the long All-Star break. OVER is 15-4 in the Mavs last 19 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 road games after failing to cover the spread last time out. Pound the OVER 211! |
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02-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -3 v. Washington Wizards | 127-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR WIZ/CAVS NBA *ESPN SUREFIRE* Bottom Line: The Cavaliers won 14 of their final 16 games before the All-Star break and I don't see any reason why Cleveland won't carry over that success down the stretch. The Cavaliers did lose their last game before the break 98-113 at Chicago, but were without Kevin Love and didn't seem all that interested. The key thing here to keep in mind is that Washington is a 1/2 game up on Cleveland in the standings, so the Cavs won't be taking this one lightly. Wizards are without one of their top players in Beal and are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Roll the Cavaliers -3! |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 115-119 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -3 Bottom Line: The Spurs will be out for revenge after losing by 20-points at home to the Clippers in the last meeting (had won previous 4) and I fully expect them to get it. Blake Griffin had 22 points in that last contest and he's out with an injury, while the Spurs will have the services of Kawhi Leonard, who missed the last meeting. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have beat the spread by 18 or more points in their last 3 games (Clippers) against an opponent who has gone UNDER the total by 42 or more combined points in their last 7 games are just 21-47 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Spurs -3! |
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02-11-15 | Washington Wizards +5 v. Toronto Raptors | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE ATS SMASH* on Wizards +5 Bottom Line: Washington will be out for revenge against the Raptors after losing in overtime at home against Toronto just 11 days ago. The Wizards come in off two dominant performances and this will be their last crack at the Raptors in the regular season. Washington is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points, while Toronto is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won at least 8 of their last 10. Pound Washington +5! |
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02-10-15 | Brooklyn Nets +12.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NETS/GRIZZLIES NBA *BEST BET* Bottom Line: While the Nets will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, the books have over adjusted this line with the public going to be all over the Grizzlies off that big home win against the Hawks. Brooklyn is 23-6 ATS in their last 29 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Memphis is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 when listed as a favorite of 10 or more points. Pound Brooklyn +12.5! |
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02-09-15 | Brooklyn Nets +5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NETS/BUCKS NBA *BEST BET* Bottom Line: Brooklyn will be out to make a statement against their former coach and also motivated from an ugly 37-point loss at Washington on Saturday. The Nets also have revenge on their minds, as they blew a 8-point halftime lead in a 118-122 triple-overtime home loss to the Bucks. Brooklyn is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after trailing in their previous game by 15+ points at the half, while Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after a SU win. Pound the Nets +5! |
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02-08-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Hornets +1 | Top | 103-102 | Push | 0 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *GAME OF THE MONTH* Bottom Line: The Hornets are getting way undervalued here due to losing yesterday to the 76ers. Charlotte has won 5 straight and 6 of 7 at home, including a 80-71 victory over these Pacers. Teams revenging a loss to an opponent off a road loss with a line of +3 to -3 are 144-288 (39%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Hornets +1! |
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02-07-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 207 | 101-111 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR* on Mavs/Blazers UNDER 207 Bottom Line: The books have set this number too high. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous matchup this season and both come in off strong defensive efforts. The Blazers held the Suns to just 87 points and the Mavs limited the Kings to only 78. UNDER is 20-7 in the Blazers last 27 games with a total set at 200 or more and 8-1 in the Mavs last 9 when revenging a road loss. Pound the UNDER 207! |
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02-06-15 | Denver Nuggets +6.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 88-98 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6.5 Bottom Line: Denver has lost 4 straight and 11 of 12 overall, which I believe has them showing great value here as a 6.5-point dog against the Pistons. Detroit has lost 5 of 7 and are simply not the same team without Jennings in the lineup. Pistons have gone just 12-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games played on Friday nights and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games when revenging a same season loss. Pound the Pistons +6.5! |
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02-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers +6.5 | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *UNDERDOG ATS SMASH* Bottom Line: The books are begging for you to take the Cavaliers in this one. Cleveland has won 12 straight and are coming off an impressive blowout victory over the Clippers last night on TNT. Indiana will be the more motivated team in this one and I look for them to give the Cavaliers all they can handle on their home floor. Keep in mind that Cleveland is just 9-14 ATS on the road, where they are getting outscored on the season. Only 4 of their 12 wins during their current stretch have come on the road and 3 of those were by 8 points or fewer. Indiana is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. Pound the Pacers +6.5! |
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02-06-15 | New York Knicks +7 v. Brooklyn Nets | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *RIVALRY ATS ANNIHILATOR* on Knicks +7 Bottom Line: New York has won 3 of their last 5 trips to Brooklyn and wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off the upset in this one. We are seeing a major overreaction on Brooklyn, who comes in off back-to-back wins over the Clippers and Raptors. This will be the first time the Nets have been favored since laying 10-points at home in a 88-90 loss to the 76ers. It's also worth noting that New York has been playing much better of late. While they lost their most recent matchup, they are 5-3 in their last 8. Brooklyn is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an upset win as a road underdog. Pound the Knicks +7! |
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02-05-15 | Washington Wizards -1.5 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards -1.5 Bottom Line: Washington will be out for revenge after losing at home to the Hornets 88-92 on Monday. Revenge in the NBA is at it's strongest in the short-term and the Wizards are primed for a win after losing 4-straight. Home underdogs off 2 or more consecutive road wins are a mere 8-26 (23%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound Washington -1.5! |
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02-04-15 | Denver Nuggets +3 v. Boston Celtics | 100-104 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +3 Bottom Line: This may seem like an opportune time to back the Celtics as a small home favorite against a Nuggets team that is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, but the smart money here will be on Denver. Boston has struggled to put back-to-back games together and we see that home favorites who have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games that are also playing at least their 9th game in the last 14 days are just 38-71 ATS since 1996. Nuggets are also 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Pound Denver! |
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02-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers -8 | Top | 102-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA NORTHWEST GAME OF THE MONTH on Trail Blazers -8 Bottom Line: This is a huge bounce back spot for Portland, who comes in having dropped 3 straight on the road. Utah on the other hand is primed for a letdown after knocking off Golden State at home 110-110 as a 10-point underdog. Underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 7-24 (23%) ATS over the last 5 seasons against an opponent that's off an upset loss as a favorite. Pound the Trail Blazers! |
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02-02-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Toronto Raptors -5.5 | Top | 82-75 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* Bottom Line: The Raptors have won 6 straight in the series with all 3 of their home wins during this stretch by at least 10-points. That includes a 124-83 home win over the Bucks earlier this season back on Nov. 21. Toronto also comes in playing some of their basketball of the season, as they have won 6 straight. Raptors are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 against the NBA Central and 31-19 ATS over the last 2 seasons when the books set a total of 200 to 209.5. Additionally, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have a +3 to +7 ppg differential against an opponent with a +/- 3 ppg differential are 32-8 ATS since 1996 after 42+ games and after scoring 110 or more in 2 straight games. Pound Toronto! |
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02-01-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks -3 | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Knicks -3 Bottom Line: The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season. They lost by 21 at Indiana last time out, but that loss came a night after a big win over the Thunder so it was a letdown spot. New York is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 at home, and I expect this trend to continue. The Lakers are now in a letdown spot following a big upset win over the Bulls. They've lost 9 of their last 10 and have really struggled on the road where they are 0-6 in their last 6. LA is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games. The home team has had a significant edge in this series of later, going 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins coming by at least 6 points. |
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01-30-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Phoenix Suns -5 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* (ESPN) on Suns -5 Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for the Bulls, who are playing their 2nd road game in as many nights and 3rd in 4 days. To make matters worse, each of Chicago's last two games have gone to OT, and it played a double-OT game last night. I just don't see Chicago having enough left in the tank to keep this one within the number against a Phoenix squad that has been at home and is rested. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Suns are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 versus Eastern Conference opponents. Pound the Suns. |
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01-29-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Lakers +8.5 | 118-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +8.5 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for the Bulls who are off a thrilling upset victory over the Warriors. It's also a look-ahead spot with a game in Phoenix tomorrow night on deck. Chicago will want to make sure it has something left in the tank for that one. The Bulls are 3-13 ATS following a road win this season. They are 26-47 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record and 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. |
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01-29-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies -10 | 69-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *PRIME TIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -10 Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Denver, which will be playing its 4th game in 5 days and has had to travel after its last 2. Playing road games on consecutive nights is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing without a day of rest. To make matters worse for Denver, Memphis will be motivated. The Grizzlies were embarrassed in Denver earlier this month, and they will be looking for payback. We saw the way they paid back Dallas on the road last game, crushing the Mavs 109-90 as 6-point dogs. That win is worth mentioning because the Grizzlies are 16-3 ATS in home games when checking in off a double-digit upset victory on the road since 1996. |
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01-28-15 | Sacramento Kings +7 v. Toronto Raptors | 102-119 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +7 Bottom Line: I like the Kings catching a fair amount of points as they will be the much fresher side. Sacramento has been off since Friday while Toronto just played last night in Indiana. I also expect to see a stronger defensive effort from the Kings after allowing Klay Thompson to set records for points and 3-pointers in a quarter. The Raptors are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home. Playing on road teams that have allowed 100 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in an 85-45 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided they average 98-102 ppg and are playing a team that allows 98-102 ppg. |
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01-27-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers +4 | 104-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4 Bottom Line: The Raptors have been struggling for a month. They've lost 8 of 13 SU and are just 2-10-1 ATS during this span. The Pacers have been struggling too, but largely because they've been spending a lot of time on the road. They have won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 6 of their last 7 home games against Eastern Conference opponents, including 4 straight. They've also won or lost by fewer than 4 points in each of their last 11 home games against the Raptors. Grab the points. |
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01-26-15 | Orlando Magic +12.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Magic +12.5 Bottom Line: Memphis won in Orlando by 10 points Jan. 16 so it will be looking right past the Magic and onto tomorrow night's revenge game at Dallas. The Grizzlies just lost to Dallas Jan. 19 and will be looking for payback. That gives us a good opportunity here. The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Orlando is 17-8 ATS as a road underdog this season while Memphis is on a 14-30 ATS slide as a double-digit favorite. |
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01-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA LINE MISTAKE OF THE WEEK on Suns +3 Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here, and the Clippers have been a terrible play as small road chalk. LA is 8-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons and has lost these games by an average of 2.0 points. Playing against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 in the second half of their schedule following a game where they shot 55% or better, provided it is a matchup of teams that have held opponents to an average of 43.5-45.5% shooting on the season, has resulted in a 22-4 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Suns are 34-19 ATS as an underdog the last 2 seasons and 27-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Pound Phoenix. |
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01-24-15 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Hornets UNDER 185.5 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 185.5 Bottom Line: Charlotte is a terrific defensive team. It's held 8 of its last 11 opponents to below 40% shooting. However, it allowed Cleveland to shoot 51.7% last night. This team is not happy with that effort and will tighten the screws defensively tonight. The Knicks had been playing exceptional defense over a 3-game stretch and then allowed Orlando to shoot better than 50% last night. They know they'll have to be much better at the defensive end in this one if they're going to avenge back-to-back losses to Charlotte. The under is 4-0 in the Hornets' last 4 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The under is 5-1 in the Knicks' last 6 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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01-23-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7 | 92-84 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Timberwolves +7 Bottom Line: This is too many points for New Orleans to be laying on the road given its weak 8-16 road record. The Pelicans destroyed Minnesota by 48 at home in the season's first meeting and will be looking right past the Wolves and onto Sunday's showdown with Dallas because of it. You can bet Minnesota hasn't forgotten about that brutal defeat, and it will be out to save face. New Orleans took care of business against the Lakers last time out but is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win. The home team has enjoyed a nice edge in the series as it is on a 7-0 SU and ATS run. 4 of these were in Minnesota. |
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01-23-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
4* MAJOR NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder +4.5 Bottom Line: This line in an overreaction to Atlanta's unexpected run. The Thunder are more talented and starting round into shape now that they're healthy. The Thunder are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the Eastern Conference and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NBA Southeast division. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Thunder are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Atlanta. |
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01-23-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 194 | Top | 91-86 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Raptors/76ers OVER 194 Bottom Line: Toronto has had no trouble controlling the pace against poor teams. The Raptors are 12-3 OVER the last 2 seasons versus teams that have a win percentage of 25% or less. We have seen an average of 208.0 total points scored in these games. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams with 6 of the meetings totaling 199 points or more. We've seen an average of 207.6 total points scored in these 7 matchups. Pound the OVER. |