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Dave Price MLB Top Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
06-18-13 San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants -140 Top 4-5 Win 100 13 h 19 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -140
The Key: The defending World Series champs have been a tremendous investment at home where they have won 35 of their last 52. They are an even more impressive 17-6 in their last 23 home games versus a team with a winning record. And, they have won 13 of their last 17 at home versus the Padres. In addition, the Giants are 9-0 this season when they check in with 5 of 6 losses in a 7-game stretch. The Giants are 55-27 in Matt Cain's last 82 home starts and 7-2 in his last 9 starts overall. San Francisco is 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-0 in his last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Cain is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Padres. Take the Giants.
06-17-13 Miami Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Top 3-2 Loss -100 14 h 7 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +102
The Key: The D-backs are 13-0 in Pat Corbin's starts this season, and he has posted an ERA of just 2.28 in these games. Arizona has won these games by an average of 3.2 runs so there is value in taking it on the run line. Corbin has an ERA of 1.60 at home on the season, and the D-backs are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts dating back to last season. They've won these by an average of 2.6 runs. Corbin should have plenty of success against a Miami lineup that is batting just .217 against lefties. It's also important to note that the D-backs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in Corbin's last 4 series-opening starts. Miami is 0-5 in the first game during each of its 5 road trips this season. Take Arizona on the run line.
06-16-13 Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -121 Top 2-10 Win 100 8 h 25 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -121
The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the A's will leave it all on the field to avoid being swept. Despite the two losses, the A's are 21-7 in their last 28 overall and 41-18 in their last 59 home games. They are 5-1 in their last 6 Game 3s of a series while the Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 Game 3s of a series. Iwakuma has been terrific for Seattle, but this will be the 3rd time the A's have seen him this season and that gives them an advantage. The Mariners have yet to face Colon this season, and I believe they're in for a rude awakening. The A's are 5-0 in his last 5 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite and 8-0 in his last 8 starts versus a team with a losing record. The A's are 41-12 in their last 53 games versus a team with a losing record and should bounce back strong here.
06-15-13 Washington Nationals -132 v. Cleveland Indians Top 7-6 Win 100 11 h 30 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -132
The Key: Washington has the clear edge on the mound with Zimmerman, who is 9-3 with an ERA of 2.00. Cleveland's Kazmir is just 3-4 with an ERA of 5.33. The Nationals are 22-7 in Zimmermann's last 29 starts, 18-4 in his last 22 starts after he gives up 2 earned runs or fewer in his last 2 outings, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the AL Central and 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Indians, on the other hand, are 0-4 in Kazmir's last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Tribe is 3-8 in its last 11 overall and 3-12 in its last 15 games as an underdog. Also, the Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games with ump Dan Iassogna behind home plate, and the road team is 4-0 in Iassogna's last 4 games behind home plate in Cleveland. Take Washington.
06-14-13 Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -1.5 Top 3-2 Loss -100 12 h 19 m Show
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Month on A's -1.5 +108
The Key: First off, the Mariners are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games and 1-11 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Oakland is 12-1 as a favorite of -150 or more this season. Secondly, the Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a left-handed starter. They lost these contests by an average of 4.8 runs. They figure to have their hands full with Tom Milone, who has a 2.43 ERA at home. The A's are 3-0 in his 3 career home starts against the Mariners, winning those by 3.3 runs on average. The A's are also 4-0 in Milone's last 4 starts series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Oakland is 10-0 this season in home games versus AL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. It has won these games by an average of 3.0 runs. The Athletics are also 9-0 in their last 9 series openers and 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. They should have their way with Joe Saunders. The Mariners are 0-6 in Saunders' 6 road starts this season, and he has an ERA of 9.00 in these games. He's also 0-2 in his last 2 starts in Oakland. Take the A's on the run line.
06-13-13 San Francisco: M Cain -107 v. Pittsburgh: C Morton Top 10-0 Win 100 10 h 41 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -107
The Key: The Giants have the edge on the mound with Matt Cain, who has shown the ability to rise to the occasion time and time again. The Giants are 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. This tells me Cain takes it upon himself to deliver following a rough outing from the pitching staff. Also, the Giants are 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts as a favorite and 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Pirates. He has a 1.46 ERA over his last 5 starts against Pittsburgh. I expect to see a little rust on the arm of Charlie Morton as he makes his first start in the bigs since undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. The Pirates are 16-40 in Morton's last 56 starts as an underdog, 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog and 1-4 in his last 5 starts versus the Giants. Take San Francisco.
06-12-13 Washington Nationals v. Colorado Rockies -166 Top 5-1 Loss -166 11 h 45 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -166
The Key: The Rockies are worth the price with the southpaw De La Rosa on the mound against the worst hitting team in baseball versus left-handed pitching. The Nationals have a .209 average and .309 slugging percentage against lefties this season. The Rockies are 7-0 in De La Rosa's last 7 starts and 11-0 in his last 11 home starts. De La Rosa's teams are also 14-0 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -150 to -175. The Rockies are 4-0 all-time in De La Rosa's starts versus the Nationals. Also, the Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher, 4-0 in their last 4 Game 2s of a series and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Take Colorado.
06-11-13 Detroit Tigers -157 v. Kansas City Royals Top 3-2 Win 100 9 h 11 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -157
The Key: The Tigers are 39-14 in their last 53 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200, and I expect them to extend this run behind a gem from Scherzer, who is 8-0 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 starts. He's 2-0 with an ERA of just 1.66 in 5 road starts. The Tigers are 5-0 in Scherzer's starts versus division opponents this season. They are also 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus the Royals and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a losing record. Kansas City's Wade Davis is 3-5 with a 5.66 ERA in 12 starts this season. Also, his teams have lost 3 of his 4 starts versus the Tigers. Take Detroit.
06-10-13 Los Angeles Angels -122 v. Baltimore Orioles Top 3-4 Loss -122 10 h 0 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -122
The Key: The Halos have the upper hand with ace Jered Weaver on the mound. They are 40-13 in his last 53 starts and 24-6 in his last 30 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher. They are also 10-3 in his last 13 road starts and 17-5 in his last 22 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels are 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Orioles, and they've won these starts by an average of 6.8 runs. Freddy Garcia has a good track record against the Angels but clearly isn't the same caliber as Weaver. The O's have lost 3 of his 4 home starts this season. Take L.A.
06-08-13 Atlanta Braves -134 v. Los Angeles Dodgers Top 2-1 Win 100 15 h 54 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER on Braves -134
The Key: The Braves have the edge on the mound with Kris Medlen. They are 28-8 in Medlen's last 36 starts, 19-3 in his last 22 starts versus teams that have a losing record and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts versus losing clubs. Medlen is also 1-0 (2-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.26 in two starts against the Dodgers. He gave up no earned runs on 2 hits in 7 innings of a 3-1 win over the Dodgers last month. The Dodgers are 6-15 in their last 21 games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last 4 in the third game of a series. Bet the Braves.
06-07-13 San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -155 Top 9-10 Win 100 12 h 51 m Show
7* National League Game of the Month on Rockies -155
The Key: The Rockies get the call with De La Rosa on the mound. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall and 10-0 in his last 10 home starts. They are also 13-0 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -150 to -175 and have won these by an average score of 8.2 to 3.9. In addition, Colorado is 8-0 in De La Rosa's last 8 starts versus the Padres. San Diego's Volquez is 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Rockies. Take Colorado.
06-06-13 San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -133 Top 6-5 Loss -133 11 h 49 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -133
The Key: The Rockies have had San Diego's number. They are 6-0 against the Padres this season and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against San Diego dating back to last season. Colorado's Chacin has been dominant against the Padres. He's 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them, holding them to 2 earned runs or fewer in each. He's held them to 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. Take Colorado.
06-05-13 Toronto Blue Jays v. San Francisco Giants -117 Top 4-0 Loss -117 7 h 35 m Show
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -117
The Key: The Giants have been unstoppable at home with Barry Zito on the bump. They are 14-0 in his last 14 home starts. Plus, Zito's teams are 6-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Blue Jays. R.A. Dickey has been rocked in each of his last two starts, and the Jays are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. Take San Francisco.
06-04-13 San Diego: C Richard v. Los Angeles: T Lilly -131 Top 7-9 Win 100 12 h 58 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -131
The Key: I'm fading San Diego's Clayton Richard here. The Padres are 0-5 in his last 5 starts, and he's given up at least 5 runs in each of his last 4. The Padres are also 0-4 in Richard's last 4 road starts, and he's been tagged for at least 5 runs in each of these. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a left-handed starter and 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing record. Ted Lilly has a terrific track record against the Padres. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Lilly's last 4 home starts versus the Pads, and he has held them to 2 runs or fewer in each of his last 7 starts against them. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Lilly's last 7 home starts versus a team with a losing record. Take L.A.
06-03-13 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Atlanta Braves -128 Top 2-7 Win 100 9 h 55 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -128
The Key: Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett hasn't been a good investment in the underdog role. In fact, the Pirates are 3-8 in Burnett's last 11 starts as an underdog, including 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. We also can't ignore how much Pittsburgh has struggled in series openers. The Pirates are 16-35 in their last 51 series openers and 2-8 in Burnett's last 10 starts in the first game of a series. The Braves, on the other hand, are 14-4 in their last 18 Game 1's and 9-0 in Kris Medlen's last 9 series-opening starts. The Braves are 15-4 in Medlen's last 19 home starts and 22-6 in his last 28 starts as a favorite. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 4-0 in its last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Bet the Braves.
06-02-13 Arizona Diamondbacks -140 v. Chicago Cubs Top 8-4 Win 100 6 h 16 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Diamondbacks -140
The Key: The D-backs have the edge on the mound with southpaw Pat Corbin. The Rockies are 10-0 in his starts this season, during which he's posted an ERA of 1.71. He should have plenty of success against a Chicago lineup that has a terrible .264 on-base percentage against lefty starters. Chicago's Edwin Jackson has struggled, especially at home. The Cubs are 0-5 in his home starts this season, during which he's posted an ERA of 7.81. Take Arizona.
06-01-13 Detroit Tigers -134 v. Baltimore Orioles Top 10-3 Win 100 8 h 4 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -134
The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Verlander, who has dominated Baltimore throughout his career. He's 7-0 (10-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.85 in 11 career starts versus the Orioles. The Tigers are 6-0 all-time in his road starts versus Baltimore, winning these by an average of 3.5 runs. The Orioles have done well with Hammel on the hill, but his 6.37 home ERA throws up a big red flag. Take the Tigers.
05-31-13 Milwaukee Brewers v. Philadelphia Phillies -125 Top 8-5 Loss -125 9 h 13 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Phillies -125
The Key: It's been a rough start to the season for Hamels, but he's been better than his record indicates. I expect a gem out of him tonight against the struggling Brewers. The Brewers are 5-22 in their last 27 overall, including 0-6 in their last 6 games. Milwaukee has really struggled against southpaw starters this year. It is just 4-18 against them on the season, including 0-7 in its last 7 on the road against lefty starters. Hamels is 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Brewers. Gallardo is typically never as good on the road, and the Brewers are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. The Brewers are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings and 11-30 in the last 41 meetings in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies.
05-30-13 Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants +101 Top 2-5 Win 101 7 h 34 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +101
The Key: The Athletics have taken the first 3 games of this home-and-home four-game series, but that won't keep me off the defending World Series champs here. After all, the Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 3 games of a series. Former Oakland ace Barry Zito has a 1.38 ERA at home this season, and the Giants are 13-0 in his last 13 home starts dating back to last season. The Giants are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. Zito is also 2-0 in his last 2 home starts versus the A's. Oakland's A.J. Griffin has an ERA of 4.31 on the road this season, and the Athletics are 2-11 in the last 13 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants.
05-29-13 Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians -133 Top 2-5 Win 100 9 h 1 m Show
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -133
The Key: The Indians lost both games in Cincinnati, but I expect them to bounce back strong at home where they have won 13 of their last 17 overall. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games and 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus the Reds. Justin Masterson is having a sensational season, and he's been lights out at home lately. The Indians are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, and he's given up no runs in his last 2 home starts spanning 16 innings. Masterson is also 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Reds, holding them to 1 earned run in 17 innings during this stretch. Cincy's Bronson Arroyo hasn't been as sharp on the road where he's 1-3. He's also had his share of struggles against the Tribe, going 0-3 with a 11.20 ERA in his last three 3 starts against them. Take the Indians on the money line.
05-26-13 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -121 Top 5-4 Loss -121 7 h 0 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -121
The Key: The Brewers are showing value at home at this price given the dominance Gallardo has displayed against the Pirates. The right-hander is 10-2 (14-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.31 in 16 career starts versus Pittsburgh. Also, the Brewers are 9-0 all-time in Gallardo's home starts versus the Pirates. Wandy Rodriguez is 1-3 on the money line in his last 4 starts versus the Brewers. He's also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 and 2-10 on the money line in his last 12 starts at Milwaukee. The Pirates are 8-45 in the last 53 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Brew Crew.
05-25-13 Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -123 Top 5-6 Win 100 8 h 24 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -123
The Key: I'm backing Barry Zito at home where he has been lights out. The Giants are 5-0 in Zito's home starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 0.55. Dating back to last season, the Giants are 12-0 in his last 12 home starts. Zito was rocked in Colorado in his most recent start, but he normally gets the best of the Rockies. The Giants are 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus Rockies. They are also 7-1 in his last 8 home starts versus the Rockies, including a perfect 3-0 in his last 3. The Rockies are only 6-20 in the last 26 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants.
05-24-13 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -104 Top 1-2 Win 100 10 h 38 m Show
7* NL Central Game of the Month on Brewers -104
The Key: The Brewers are 44-7 in their last 51 at home versus the Pirates, and I expect them to continue their home dominance against their NL Central rivals tonight. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada has owned Pittsburgh, as evidenced by the fact he has a 2.47 ERA in 7 starts against the Bucs. The Brewers are 4-0 in Estrada's last 4 starts versus Pirates, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog, 6-0 in his last 6 series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days' rest. A.J. Burnett hasn't had much luck against the Brew Crew, as evidenced by his 4.87 ERA in 10 starts against them. The Pirates are 0-4 in Burnett's last 4 starts versus the Brewers and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Beermakers.
05-23-13 Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals -130 Top 5-4 Loss -130 10 h 18 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -130
The Key: I'm fading Joe Blanton here. The right-hander has a 6.62 ERA on the season and an 8.04 ERA over his last three starts. The Angels are 0-4 this season in his road starts, 0-7 in his night starts and 0-4 in his series-opening starts. He is also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus Kansas City. He was tagged for 7 earned runs in 4 2-3 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Royals May 13. Former Angel Ervin Santana has an ERA of 2.77, and that number is down to 1.84 at home. His knowledge of the L.A. hitters should play to his benefit. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take Kansas City.
05-22-13 Boston Red Sox -126 v. Chicago White Sox Top 6-2 Win 100 10 h 49 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -126
The Key: The Red Sox have the edge on the mound with Buchholz, who is 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA in 9 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 road starts. The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 26-5 in Buchholz's last 31 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a losing record. It is also significant that Buchholz has a WHIP of just 1.035 given the White Sox are 6-18 in their last 24 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The White Sox are 0-3 in Santiago's last 3 starts. Bet Bean Town.
05-21-13 St. Louis Cardinals -140 v. San Diego Padres Top 10-2 Win 100 12 h 43 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -140
The Key: The Cards have the edge on the mound with Wainwright, who's 5-3 with a 2.51 ERA. Compare that to San Diego's Volquez, who's 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA. Wainwright has also been lights out against the Padres, going 3-2 with a 0.97 ERA in 5 career starts. Volquez is 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA in 9 starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite. The Padres are 3-7 in Volquez's last 10 starts, and he's 1-4 on the money line in his last 5 versus the Cards. Take St. Louis.
05-20-13 Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants -135 Top 0-8 Win 100 13 h 38 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -135
The Key: The Giants are happy to be home after losing the last three of a four-game series in Colorado. They are 20-7 in their last 27 home games and 12-3 in their last 15 home games versus a team with a winning record. Ryan Vogelsong has struggled, but I expect his best outing of the season tonight. The Nationals are hitting just .224 on the road, and he knows he needs a quality start if he wants to remain in the rotation. The Giants are 14-5 in Vogelsong's last 19 home starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a winning record. Washington's Zach Duke hasn't started since July 10, 2011 and he's been hit hard in two appearances this season. He gave up three runs in three innings of an 8-1 loss to Atlanta on April 30 and allowed four runs in two-thirds of inning as Washington fell 8-2 to the Chicago Cubs on May 11. Duke's clubs are 9-32 all-time in his starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Take the Giants.
05-17-13 Houston Astros v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Top 4-5 Loss -100 25 h 14 m Show
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Pirates -1.5 +100
The Key: The Pirates have owned the Astros. They've won 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and 16 of the last 21 at home. Plus, they've never lost to Houston when facing Jordan Lyles. They are 5-0 against the 'stros when Lyles gets the start. Lyles has a 7.77 ERA in these 5 starts. It's also worth noting that the Astros are 0-9 in Lyles' last 9 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-7 in his last 7 interleague starts. Take Pittsburgh on the run line.
05-07-13 St. Louis Cardinals -130 v. Chicago Cubs Top 1-2 Loss -130 10 h 6 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -130
The Key: The Cardinals have never lost to the Cubs when Lance Lynn gets the start, going 4-0 with an average winning margin of 4.5 runs. Lynn has an ERA of 2.96 in these starts. Lynn is working off 3 consecutive gems, which bodes well for us since the Cards are 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The Cardinals are also 7-0 in his last 7 series-opening and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. It is also worth noting that the Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Chicago's Travis Wood has pitched well this season, but he doesn't have a good track record against the Cardinals. Fading the Cubs against the Cardinals with Wood on the mound has never lost as the Cubs are 0-3 in his starts against St. Louis. He's given up 18 runs in 16 innings in those starts. The Cubs are 0-7 in Wood's last 7 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-8 in his last 8 starts as a home underdog. Take St. Louis.
05-05-13 Seattle Mariners v. Toronto Blue Jays -155 Top 2-10 Win 100 5 h 28 m Show
7* MLB Game of the Week on Blue Jays -155
The Key: The Mariners have won the first two games of this series but are still 3-7 in their last 10 road games, 2-7 in their last 9 road games versus a right-handed starter, 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 5-12 in their last 17 in the third game of a series. They will have a very tough time pulling off the sweep with Joe Saunders on the bump. He's 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA in 3 road starts. The Blue Jays are in better hands with Brandon Morrow. He has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 4 of his first 6 starts, and Toronto is 2-0 in his last 2 starts with wins over Baltimore and Boston. Morrow is also 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA versus Seattle while Saunders is 2-5 on the money line in his last 7 starts versus the Jays. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Morrow's last 5 starts versus a team with a losing record and 17-5 in his last 22 starts in the third game of a series. Bet the Blue Jays.
04-19-13 San Diego: E Volquez v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -1.5 Top 2-3 Loss -101 12 h 7 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -1.5 (-101)
The Key: Dating back to last season, the Giants are 4-0 in Madison Bumgarner's last 4 starts. They have won these by an average of 2.0 runs. The Padres, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Edison Volquez's last 4 starts and have lost these by an average of 5.8 runs. The Giants are also 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 home starts versus the Padres with these wins coming by an average of 2.0 runs. Volquez's teams are 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Giants, losing these by an average of 3.5 runs. Take San Francisco on the run line.
04-18-13 Arizona Diamondbacks +108 v. New York Yankees Top 6-2 Win 108 9 h 51 m Show
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Diamondbacks +108
The Key: The D-backs have lost the first two games of this series but squandered multi-run leads in each. I really think they are the better team at this stage of the season and will prove so here with the better starter on the hill. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 in the third game of a series and 5-2 in their last 7 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Yankees have struggled against southpaw starters this season, hitting just .209 against them, and these struggles should continue against Pat Corbin, who is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. The D-backs are 3-0 in his last 3 starts and 5-1 in his last 6. Meanwhile, New York's Phil Hughes has struggled. He has a 10.29 ERA through 2 starts, and the Yankees are 0-4 in his last 4 starts dating to last season. Opponents are hitting .472 off him this season, and he has a 6.17 ERA in four interleague home starts. The D-backs should have little trouble getting to Hughes considering the way they are crushing right-handed starters. They are batting .289 against them on the season. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Snakes.
04-17-13 San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Top 7-2 Loss -111 13 h 55 m Show
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Dodgers -1.5 -111
The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong behind ace Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 home starts and have won these by an average of 4.3 runs. They are also 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus San Diego with the 6 wins coming by an average of 2.5 runs. The Padres aren't in the same hands with Tyson Ross. His teams are 0-5 in his last 5 starts and have lost them by an average of 2.4 runs. They are also 0-5 in his last 5 road starts, losing those by 3.4 runs on average. Take LA on the run line.
04-16-13 Texas Rangers -121 v. Chicago Cubs Top 4-2 Win 100 9 h 47 m Show
7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rangers -121
The Key: Texas is showing good value at this price for a number of reasons. First off, I expect the Cubs to struggle against southpaw Derek Holland. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games versus a left-handed starter and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games versus a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 8-2 in Holland's last 10 starts as a road favorite. They are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games and 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. The Rangers figure to handle Chicago lefty Travis Wood better as they are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games versus a left-handed starter. The Cubs are 0-7 in Wood's last 7 starts as a home underdog and 0-6 in his last 6 home starts versus a team with a winning record. All together, we have a 26-0 angle in our favor along with a couple other convincing trends. Take Texas.
04-13-13 Cincinnati: J Cueto -155 v. Pittsburgh: J Locke Top 1-3 Loss -155 11 h 26 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -155
The Key: The Reds hold the advantage on the mound with Johnny Cueto, who has looked good early with a 2.77 ERA through two starts. It has made sense to ride the Reds with Cueto on the mound when he's going good. In fact, the Reds are 22-6 in his last 28 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Reds are also 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200 and 13-3 in Cueto's last 16 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Pirates have lost 9 of Jeff Locke's 11 career starts, and they are 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus division opponents. Cueto is 12-4 (13-6 on the ML) lifetime versus the Pirates with an ERA of 2.54. The Reds are 5-1 in his last 6 road starts versus Pittsburgh. Bet the Reds.
04-12-13 New York Mets -108 v. Minnesota Twins Top 16-5 Win 100 11 h 50 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -108
The Key: The Mets hold a sizable advantage on the mound with Jon Niese, who has brilliant in his first two starts of the season. The Mets are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall and he hasn't given up more than 3 earned in any of those. The Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games versus teams that have a losing record. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite. It's also important to note that the Mets are 4-0 in Niese's last 4 starts series-opening starts. The Twins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in their last 4 series openers. Vance Worley is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 home starts. Plus, he has struggled against the Mets throughout his career, as evidence by his 5.30 lifetime ERA against them. He is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 versus the Mets and was touched for at least 4 earned in each. Bet the Mets.
04-11-13 Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -130 Top 8-1 Loss -130 13 h 45 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -130
The Key: The A's have taken the first two games of this series but haven't pulled off a three-game sweep of the Angels since 2004. Also, Oakland has won its first 5 on the road but hasn't opened 6-0 on the highway since 1990. Jason Vargas was solid in his first start of the season and has a strong track record against the A's. He's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts against them. The Angels have been hitting the snot out of the ball, recording double-digit hits in each of their last 4 games. The problem has been driving in the base runners. History is on our side here though as the Halos are on a 41-23 run after 2 straight games of stranding 10 or more runners on base. The Angels are also on a 38-23 run after 2 straight losses of 4 runs or more, a 92-55 run in home games after allowing 8 runs or more last game and a 55-34 run when out for revenge for a home loss of 6 runs or more to an opponent. Take the Angels.
04-09-13 Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Miami Marlins Top 3-2 Loss -100 9 h 52 m Show
7* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Braves -1.5 +106
The Key: The 6-1 Braves are showing value on the run line against the 1-6 Marlins. 5 of Atlanta's wins have come by at least 2 runs while 5 of Miami's losses have come by 2 runs or more.

The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games versus Miami, winning these by an average of 2.6 runs. They are also in good hands with Medlen on the mound. Atlanta is 5-0 in his 5 career starts versus the Marlins, winning these by 3.2 runs on average.

The Braves are also 11-0 in Medlen's last 11 road starts, winning these by 3.5 runs on average. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 0-5 in LeBlanc's last 5 starts as an underdog, losing these by an average of 3.2 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
04-07-13 Los Angeles Angels +127 v. Texas Rangers Top 3-7 Loss -100 12 h 6 m Show
7* Sunday Night Baseball *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels +127
The Key: It will be tough for Yu Darvish to bounce back mentally and physically following the best outing of his major league career. He threw 111 pitches in his near-perfect game but had thrown a high of only 78 pitches during spring training so I don't expect him to have his "A" stuff here. Jered Weaver is the far more proven starter. He's 4-0 in his last 4 starts against Texas. He's held the Rangers to 3 earned runs or fewer in each of these, and the Angels won these games by an average of 5.0 runs. The Angels are 10-2 in Weaver's last 12 road starts and 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. I believe we're getting the better pitcher and the better team at a great price. Take the Halos.
04-04-13 Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -120 Top 2-4 Win 100 9 h 27 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -120
The Key: After losing the first two games of the series, I expect the Yankees to be very focused this evening. Keep in mind that they are 39-13 in their last 52 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Yankees have struggled at the plate in the first two games, but I like their chances against Ryan Dempster. Fading Dempster versus the Yankees has never lost as he's 0-4 (0-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.63 and a WHIP of 2.048 in 5 career starts against them. The Yankees are in better hands with Andy Pettitte, who has a proven track record against the Red Sox. The Yankees have won 24 of his last 36 starts against them, including 5 of his last 6. Plus, they Yankees are an impressive 97-43 in Pettitte's last 140 starts as a home favorite. New York is showing great value at this price.
10-24-12 Detroit Tigers -163 v. San Francisco Giants Top 3-8 Loss -163 11 h 11 m Show
7* World Series Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -163
The Key: Zito is pitching better than he has in years, but he's still no Verlander. The Detroit ace is 7-0 in his last 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 run only once during this stretch. He allowed 2 runs in the lone exception. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts vs. teams from the National League West and 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Verlander has a WHIP of 1.017 while Zito's WHIP is 1.392. That should be a concern for the Giants as the Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the Tigers.
10-17-12 San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -120 Top 1-3 Win 100 7 h 40 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -120
The Key: Expect the Cardinals to bounce back strong this afternoon as the series shifts to St. Louis where they have won 35 of their last 52 games. Lohse has a lower ERA then Cain on the season (2.82 compared to 2.90), a lower ERA at home than Cain has on the road (2.33 compared to 3.62), a lower ERA over their last 3 starts (3.37 compared to 4.59) and a lower career ERA against the Giants/Cardinals (3.78 compared to 4.94). The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss and 15-5 in Lohse's last 20 starts as a home favorite. The Giants are 3-7 in Cain's last 10 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take St. Louis.
10-10-12 Baltimore Orioles +1.5 v. New York Yankees Top 2-3 Win 100 12 h 34 m Show
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles +1.5 -130
The Key: Really like the Orioles catching 1.5 runs at an affordable price with Gonzalez on the bump. Baltimore is 11-4 in his starts this season and 7-2 in his starts as a road underdog on the year. The Orioles are a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and he is 2-0 in 2 career starts at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 2.63. He outdueled Kuroda in his most recent start there Aug. 31, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 7 innings of work while striking out 9 and walking 1 in a 6-1 victory. Take the Orioles on the run line.
10-09-12 Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's -132 Top 0-2 Win 100 12 h 45 m Show
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -132
The Key: The Tigers got loose for 5 runs in their game 2 win, but the Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent enters off a game in which it scored 5 runs or more. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in Sanchez's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. The Athletics are 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 starts in the favorite role. The Tigers have dropped 7 of their last 9 playoffs games on the road, and I expect their postseason road struggles to continue against an Oakland club that has won 39 of its last 54 at home.
10-07-12 Cincinnati Reds v. San Francisco Giants -149 Top 9-0 Loss -149 11 h 50 m Show
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -149
The Key: The Reds are 0-4 in Arroyo's last 4 starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. the Giants and 0-4 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Giants are 11-0 in Bumgarner's last 11 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last 6 starts on 7 or more days' rest. The Giants bounce back strong.
10-05-12 St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves -165 Top 6-3 Loss -165 8 h 25 m Show
7* MLB Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -165
The Key: The Braves are 23-0 in Medlen's last 23 starts, 13-0 in his last 13 home starts, 9-0 in his last 9 starts versus clubs with a winning mark and 6-0 in his last 6 starts when valued as a favorite of -151 to -200. Plus, the command Medlen has shown lately is a great sign. The Braves are 11-0 in his starts over the last 3 seasons when he enters a start following back-to-back outings with 1 walk or none. The Braves are also 12-0 in his starts over the last 3 seasons when he enters a start following an outing in which he gave up 1 earned run or none. Take Atlanta.
10-03-12 Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Top 2-1 Loss -100 10 h 31 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +100
The Key: The D-backs have never lost to the Rockies at home with ace Ian Kennedy on the mound. They are 6-0 lifetime in this spot and have won these by an average of 2.83 runs. The D-backs are 7-0 in Kennedy's last 7 starts versus the Rockies overall and have won these by an average of 2.86 runs. Kennedy enters this contest pitching his best ball of the season, and Arizona is 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a result. It has won these by 2.33 runs on average. The Rockies, on the other hand, are 0-5 in Francis' last 5 starts and have lost those by an average of 4.0 runs per game. With their ace on the hill and a chance to notch a winning season, I'll take the Snakes on the run line.
10-02-12 New York Mets -145 v. Miami Marlins Top 3-4 Loss -145 10 h 53 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -145
The Key: The Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite, and I expect this trend to continue with Dickey on the hill. The Mets 9-0 in Dickey
10-01-12 Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Top 7-5 Loss -100 12 h 13 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +106
The Key: The Rockies 0-9 in their last 9 on the road and have lost those by an an average of 4.0 runs. Pomeranz has struggled against the NL West all season (0-7 with a 7.24 ERA in 10 starts), and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the division. They have dropped these by 4.75 runs on average. They are also 0-2 in his 2 career starts versus Arizona, losing these by 6.5 runs on average. The D-backs, on the other hand, are 4-0 lifetime in Miley's starts against the Rockies and have won these by an average of 5.75 runs. Take the Snakes on the run line.
09-30-12 New York Mets v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 Top 2-6 Win 100 4 h 13 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5
The Key: The Braves are 22-0 in Medlen's last 22 starts and have won them by an average of 3.4 runs. They are also 4-0 lifetime in his starts against the Mets and have won those by an average of 5.0 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
09-29-12 Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins Top 6-4 Win 100 8 h 18 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -140
The Key: The Tigers are 3-0 in Verlander's last 3 starts, winning each of those by 4 runs while he has posted a 0.86 ERA. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -200 or greater, winning these by an average of 2.3 runs. They are also also 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -200 or greater, winning these by an average of 2.0 runs. Detroit is 7-0 in Verlander's last 7 starts against the Twins and has won these by an average of 4.3 runs. He has held the Twins to 1 earned run or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts against them. Lastly, the Twins are 0-4 in Walters' last 4 starts as a home underdog and have lost these by 2.0 runs on average. Take the Tigers on the run line.
09-28-12 Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Top 7-6 Loss -125 10 h 47 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -1.5 -125
The Key: The Brewers are 11-0 in Gallardo's last 11 starts, winning them by an average of 3.9 runs. Gallardo is 10-0 in his last 10 starts versus Houston, and the Brew Crew have won these by an average of 5.7 runs. Milwaukee is 13-0 in Gallardo's starts in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus teams that are outscored by an average of 0.5 or more runs/game. It has won these by an average of 4.6 runs. The Brewers are 15-0 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 4.9 runs, and 13-0 in home games in the 2nd half of the season versus NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these by an average of 3.2 runs. Bet Milwaukee on the run line.
09-26-12 St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Houston Astros Top 0-2 Loss -117 12 h 52 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -1.5 -117
The Key: The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games and have won these by an average of 3.25 runs. The Astros, meanwhile, are 0-3 in their last 3 games and have lost these by an average of 5.33 runs. The Astros are 0-10 in their last 10 versus St. Louis and have dropped these by 4.8 runs on average. They are also 0-6 in Norris' last 6 starts with an average losing margin of 2.5 runs in these games. Further bolstering this situation is the fact that Houston hasn't been able to manufacture runs by playing small ball when matched up against teams with good defensive catchers. In fact, it is 0-13 in the second half of this season versus teams with good defensive catchers that hold opponents to 0.5 or less stolen bases per game. It has lost to these teams by an average of 5.2 runs. Bet St. Louis on the run line.
09-25-12 Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 Top 3-4 Loss -117 10 h 17 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -117
The Key: The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 overall (2.25-run avg losing margin) and 0-6 in their last 6 on the road (2.00-run avg losing margin). The Braves are 21-0 in Medlen's last 21 starts (3.5-run avg winning margin), 19-0 in his last 19 night starts (3.0-run avg winning margin), 12-0 in his last 12 home outings (3.4-run avg winning margin), 13-0 in his last 13 starts against division opponents (3.8-run avg winning margin), 11-0 in his last 11 starts after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing (3.9-run avg winning margin) and 10-0 in his last 10 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest (2.7-run avg winning margin). The Braves are also 4-0 in his 4 career starts against the Marlins (3.75-run avg winning margin. Take Atlanta on the run line.
09-24-12 Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 Top 2-6 Win 100 9 h 51 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -119
The Key: The Tigers are badly in need of a win after getting swept by the Twins in a double header yesterday. Fortunately, they have their ace on the mound. The Tigers are 8-0 in Verlander's last 8 home starts and have won those by an average of 2.9 runs. Verlander is 14-2 with a 2.76 ERA lifetime against KC. I expect him to shut down the Royals and for the sticks to take care of the rest. Take Detroit on the run line.
09-23-12 Texas Rangers -138 v. Seattle Mariners Top 3-2 Win 100 6 h 33 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -138
The Key: The Rangers have dropped the first two in this series, but that won't keep me off them here as they are 11-3 in their last 14 following defeats in the first two games of a series. Plus, the Mariners are 0-4 in their last four during the third game of a series. The Mariners are 0-5 in Vargas' last 5 starts as a home underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 6-0 in Dempster's last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Rangers.
09-22-12 Texas Rangers -165 v. Seattle Mariners Top 0-1 Loss -165 15 h 58 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -165
The Key: The Rangers went down Friday, but they are an awesome 11-0 in their last 11 games following a loss. I expect them to bounce back strong behind Harrison, who is 9-0 in his last 9 starts against the Mariners. He is 5-0 all-time in his starts in Seattle. The Mariners are 0-4 in Beavan's last 4 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take Texas.
09-21-12 San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants -150 Top 1-5 Win 100 13 h 52 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -150
The Key: The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 home games, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite, 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 11-0 in home games vs. a starting pitcher who lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Giants.
09-20-12 Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -150 Top 2-9 Win 100 5 h 24 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -150
The Key: The Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 overall, 0-4 in their last 4 games after losing the first 3 games of a series, 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-4 in De La Rosa's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games, 5-0 in Zito's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the National League West, 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and 8-0 in his last 8 starts. The Giants are also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series.
09-19-12 Atlanta Braves -135 v. Miami Marlins Top 3-0 Win 100 10 h 40 m Show
7* MLB Game of the Month on Braves -135
The Key: The Braves are a perfect 20-0 in Medlen's last 20 starts, 12-0 in his last 12 starts against division opponents, 12-0 in his last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 10-0 in his last 10 starts after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his last outing and 12-0 in his last 12 starts following a team loss the previous game. The Braves are also 12-0 in his last 12 starts in the 2nd half of the season versus NL teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse and 11-0 in his last 11 starts in the 2nd half of the season versus teams that strike out 7 or more times per game. Plus, the Braves are a perfect 3-0 in his 3 career starts versus the Marlins. The Marlins 0-4 Johnson
09-17-12 Baltimore Orioles -120 v. Seattle Mariners Top 10-4 Win 100 12 h 24 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -120
The Key: The Orioles are 3-0 in Tillman's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.70. They are also 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, and he is 3-0 lifetime against Seattle with an ERA of 0.83. The Mariners are 0-5 in Noesi's last 5 starts, 0-5 in his last 5 home starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog. The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in their last 5 games against the Orioles. Bet Baltimore.
09-16-12 San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks -116 Top 2-10 Win 100 5 h 35 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -116
The Key: The D-backs have lost the first two games of this series and they're favored with Corbin on the hill, who has lost his last 3 decisions? This really speaks to how poorly Vogelsong has pitched. He has been hit hard in his last 3 (8.79 ERA L3 starts), and nobody hit him harder than Arizona in this stretch. The Snakes tagged him for 6 runs and knocked him out in 3 1-3 innings. Corbin has a solid 3.60 home ERA. I expect a solid performance from him and for the D-back sticks to take care of the rest.
09-15-12 Philadelphia Phillies -159 v. Houston Astros Top 0-5 Loss -159 10 h 19 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Phillies -159
The Key: The Astros are 14-56 in their last 70 overall and 6-23 in their last 29 home games. They are 0-4 in Keuchel's last 4 starts and 1-10 in his last 11 starts. They are 0-5 in Keuchel's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-8 in his last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 0-7 in his last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies are 4-0 in Kendrick's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and I expect him to outduel Keuchel here.
09-14-12 Washington Nationals v. Atlanta Braves -162 Top 1-2 Win 100 9 h 16 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -162
The Key: I've been riding Medlen since he broke into the starting lineup this season, and I'm not going to stop riding him now. The Braves are 19-0 in his last 19 starts. Atlanta enters off a loss, but it is 11-0 in Medlen's last 11 starts following a team loss. The Braves are also 9-0 in his last 9 starts versus team with a winning record, 11-0 in his last 11 starts in the second half of the team versus NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse and 10-0 in his last 10 starts in the second half of the season versus team that strike out 7 or more times/game. The Braves are 10-0 in his last 10 starts vs. the National League East and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Nationals are 0-4 in Detwiler's last 4 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Braves money line.
09-13-12 Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5 Top 5-4 Loss -108 9 h 17 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -1.5 -108
The Key: The Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 games (2.8-run avg. losing margin), 0-5 in McAllister's last 5 starts (3.8-run avg. losing margin) and 0-4 in McAllister's last 4 road starts (2.5-run avg. losing margin). The Rangers are 3-0 in Holland's last 3 home starts (3.7-run avg. winning margin) and 5-0 in his 5 career starts against the Tribe (4.2-run avg. winning margin). Texas is also 6-0 in its last 6 at home against Cleveland (4.0-run avg. winning margin. Take Texas on the run line.
09-12-12 Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers -133 Top 2-8 Win 100 12 h 47 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -133
The Key: The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 8-0 in Gallardo's last 8 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days), 8-0 in his last 8 starts in the third game of a series and 11-0 in his last 11 home starts in the second half of the season versus an an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse. Maholm is 0-6 on the money line in his last 6 starts against teh Brewers. Take Milwaukee.
09-11-12 Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5 Top 4-6 Win 100 11 h 48 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -1.5 -120
The Key: The Indians are 0-5 in Jimenez's last 5 starts (3.0-run avg. losing margin) and 0-8 in his last 8 road starts (3.6-run avg. losing margin). They are also 0-4 in their last 4 in Arlington (4.8-run avg. losing margin). The Rangers are 5-0 in Harrison's last 5 starts as a favorite of -200 or greater (4.2-run avg. winning margin). Bet the Rangers on the run line.
09-10-12 Washington Nationals -144 v. New York Mets Top 5-1 Win 100 9 h 51 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -144
The Key: The Nats have won 16 of their last 21 versus the Mets and are 5-0 in their last 5 against them in New York. The Mets are just 6-21 in their last 27 home games, 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog and 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Nationals are 21-7 in Gonzalez's last 28 starts, 10-2 in his last 12 road starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite.
09-09-12 Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -119 Top 4-5 Win 100 3 h 58 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -119
The Key: Despite losing the first 2 games of this series, the Cards are still 21-8 in their last 29 at home, 18-8 in their last 26 vs. Milwaukee and 9-3 in their last 12 at home against the Brewers. Milwaukee is just 6-14 in Marcum's lst 20 starts, 2-7 in his last 9 road starts and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. the Cardinals. It's also important to note that the Brewers are 0-4 in Marcum's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last 4 starts falling in the third game of a series.
09-08-12 Atlanta: K Medlen -160 v. New York (N): J Hefner Top 11-3 Win 100 8 h 14 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -160
The Key: The Braves are 18-0 in Medlen's last 18 starts, and they are a perfect 3-0 all-time in his starts against the Mets. Medlen has a 0.54 ERA in 7 starts this season and a 0.00 ERA over his last 3 starts.
09-07-12 Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -133 Top 5-4 Loss -133 14 h 40 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -133
The Key: Gallardo has pitched much better over the last 5 weeks, but he just got rocked his last time out, and he has never fared well against St. Louis. He's 1-10 with an ERA of 7.06 in 14 career starts against the Cards. He's 0-6 in his last 6 starts versus the Cardinals, and the Brewers have dropped those contests by an average of 4.7 runs. Lohse (14-2, 2.81) has won both of his starts versus Milwaukee this season in impressive fashion. Bet St. Louis.
09-06-12 Chicago (N): J Germano v. Washington: Zimmermann -1.5 Top 2-9 Win 100 10 h 18 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -1.5 -106
The Key: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games with an average losing margin of 4.0 runs in these contests. They are also 0-7 in their last 7 road games losing those by an average of 3.4 runs. The Cubs are 0-9 this season in road games following 5 or more straight defeats, losing in this situation by an average of 2.6 runs. Germano is 0-3 on the money in his last 3 starts and those losses have come by 6.0 runs on average. He's also 0-8 on the money line in his last 8 road starts with those losses coming by 3.4 runs on average. Lastly, the Nats are 4-0 in their last 4 games with an average winning margin of 4.0 runs. Nats on the run line.
09-05-12 Chicago (N): C Volstad v. Washington: G Gonzalez -1.5 Top 1-9 Win 100 9 h 49 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -1.5 -113
The Key: Gio Gonzalez has been tough on everyone this season, but he's especially been tough on the NL Central. The Nationals are 8-0 in his starts against NL Central foes this season, and they have won these games by an average of 3.0 runs. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 0-6 in Chris Volstad's 6 road starts this season, and they have lost these by an average of 3.7 runs. Bet Washington on the run line.
09-04-12 Houston Astros v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Top 2-6 Win 105 11 h 56 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -1.5 +105
The Key: Fading the Pirates with Lyles on the mound as a road underdog of +151 to +200 has produced a 9-0 mark all-time that has won by an average of 3.4 runs. The Astros are also 0-4 this season in Lyle's road starts in the 2nd game of a series. They have dropped these by an average of 4.3 runs. Houston is even 0-11 in Lyle's road starts vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. It has lost these by an average score of 7.5 to 3.1. Pound Pittsburgh on the run line.
09-03-12 Colorado Rockies v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 Top 1-6 Win 100 5 h 55 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -108
The Key: The Braves are a perfect 17-0 in Kris Medlen's last 17 starts, winning those by an average of 3.4 runs. 6 of those wins have come this season, and he has posted an ERA of just 0.66 in those outings. He has a 0.00 over his last 3 starts and the Braves have won his last 10 starts by 2 runs or more. Bet the Braves on the run line.
09-02-12 Los Angeles Angels -166 v. Seattle Mariners Top 1-2 Loss -166 9 h 33 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -166
The Key: The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 overall and 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite. They are 8-0 in Weaver's last 8 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite of -151 to -200. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. This 30-0 angle is strengthened by the fact the Angels have won 38 of the last 53 meetings overall and 35 of the last 52 in Seattle. The Angels are also 9-2 in Weaver's last 11 starts vs. the Mariners.
09-01-12 San Francisco: T Lincecum -155 v. Chicago (N): J Germano Top 5-2 Win 100 4 h 16 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -155
The Key: Love the Giants today with a rested Lincecum on the bump. He has been lights out on the road of late, allowing 2 runs or less in each of his last 3 road starts. Plus, the Giants are 4-0 in his last 4 starts coming on 5 days' rest. The Cubs are 0-4 in Germano's last 4 starts as an underdog, and he has been rocked in each of his last 2 outings. The Cubs are 8-22 in their last 30 overall and 5-17 when playing on Saturday this season. The Giants are 8-3 in their last 11 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in the last 6 against the Cubs.
08-31-12 Texas: R Dempster -153 v. Cleveland: U Jimenez Top 5-3 Win 100 9 h 24 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -153
The Key: The Indians are 0-14 this season after hitting .225 or worse over a 10-game span. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 series openers, 0-5 in their last 5 home contests and 0-6 in their last 6 Friday matchups. The Tribe is 0-3 in Jimenez's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 8.59. The Rangers have won 22 of 28 versus the Indians, including 12 of their last 15 in Cleveland. They are 4-1 in Dempster's starts since he joined the club.
08-30-12 San Francisco: Vogelsong -176 v. Houston: J Lyles Top 8-4 Win 100 11 h 7 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -176
The Key: I don't play favorites this large often in baseball, but I believe the Giants are well worth it here. The Astros are 8-47 in their last 55 overall, 0-6 in their last 6 Thursday games, 0-5 in Lyles' last 5 home starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-5 in his last 5 starts in the 3rd game of a series. The Astros are also 0-5 in their last 5 against the Giants.
08-29-12 Atlanta Braves -127 v. San Diego Padres Top 2-8 Loss -127 9 h 52 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -127
The Key: The Braves are 11-2 in Tommy Hanson's last 13 starts and 17-5 in his last 22 road starts. Plus, the Braves have never lost to the Padres in San Diego with Hanson on the hill. They are 3-0 all-time in his starts at Petco and have won those by an average of 5.3 runs. Hanson has never given up more than 2 runs to the Padres in 5 career starts against them. Bet the Braves.
08-28-12 Atlanta: K Medlen -154 v. San Diego: A Werner Top 2-0 Win 100 13 h 33 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -154
The Key: The Braves are 16-0 in Medlen's last 16 starts, 8-0 in his last 8 road starts, 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 7-0 in his last 7 starts on 5 days' rest. Atlanta lost yesterday, but they are 10-0 in Medlen's last 10 starts when he gets the ball following a team loss. The Braves have won by an average score of 6.0 to 2.6 in this situation. Take Atlanta.
08-27-12 Seattle Mariners -158 v. Minnesota Twins Top 1-0 Win 100 11 h 50 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mariners -158
The Key: The Mariners are at a major advantage with Hernandez on the hill. They are 7-1 in his last 8 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. The Twins, who have lost 7 of 8 at home, are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 0-7 in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record, 0-4 in Hendriks' last 4 starts vs. the American League West, 0-5 in Hendriks' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-6 in his last 6 home starts. Lastly, the Mariners are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with Minnesota. Bet Seattle.
08-26-12 Miami Marlins v. Los Angeles Dodgers -159 Top 6-2 Loss -159 9 h 15 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -159
The Key: The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4, and they've lost the first 2 games of this series by 7 and 6 runs, respectively. The Marlins are also 0-4 in Buehrle's last 4 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Fish have lost 8 of his 12 road starts on the season so he clearly isn't winning pitching duels away from home. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL East and 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. LA has won 5 of its last 6 vs. Miami, and it should continue its dominance here.
08-25-12 Milwaukee: S Marcum v. Pittsburgh: J Karstens -103 Top 0-4 Win 100 11 h 43 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -103
The Key: The Brewers won yesterday, but I'm not hesitating in fading them today. They are still only 17-38 in their last 55 road games, 4-13 in their last 17 games as an underdog and 0-7 in their last 7 Saturday games. Plus, I'm expecting Marcum to struggle as he makes his first start in over 2 months. The Brewers are 5-12 in Marcum's last 17 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 road starts. He'll likely be on a pitch count, which means the Pirates will get to see plenty of a bullpen that carries a high 4.76 ERA. Lastly, the Pirates are a perfect 5-0 in Karstens' starts vs. the National League Central this season, and he has a lights out 2.53 ERA in these games.
08-24-12 Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs -155 Top 3-5 Win 100 5 h 29 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cubs -155
The Key: Colorado has been playing better baseball lately, but it can't be trusted on the road with the southpaw Drew Pomeranz on the mound. The Rockies are 0-4 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts vs. the National League Central and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, the Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. In addition, the Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record, 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home favorite, 7-3 in Samardzija's 10 home starts this season and 20-8 in their last 28 home games against the Rockies. Take the Cubbies.
08-23-12 Cincinnati: J Cueto v. Philadelphia: C Hamels -110 Top 3-4 Win 100 10 h 6 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Phillies -110
The Key: Plain and simple, Cole Hamels has absolutely owned the Reds. He have never lost to them, going 10-0 on the money line in 10 career starts with an ERA of only 1.26. Johnny Cueto hasn't enjoyed as much success against the Phillies. He's 2-4 on the money line in 6 career starts against them with an ERA of 5.08. Bet Philly.
08-22-12 Atlanta Braves -110 v. Washington Nationals Top 5-1 Win 100 11 h 50 m Show
7* NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -110
The Key: The Braves are 15-0 in Medlen's last 15 starts, 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, 7-0 in his last 7 road starts, 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. the National League East, 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 6-0 in his last 6 starts on 5 days' rest. Bet the Braves.
08-21-12 San Francisco: T Lincecum v. Los Angeles: J Blanton -113 Top 4-1 Loss -113 13 h 59 m Show
7* NL West Game of the Month on Dodgers -113
The Key: I'm fading the Giants with Lincecum on the mound. The Giants are 9-22 in Lincecum's last 31 starts and 4-11 in his last 15 road starts. They are 2-12 in his starts when the money line is +125 to -125 this season and 3-12 in his starts following a win this season. San Francisco is even 3-10 in Lincecum's last 13 starts vs. the National League West, 2-9 in his last 11 starts as an underdog, 1-6 in hi last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. the Dodgers. Bet LA.
08-20-12 Minnesota: B Duensing v. Oakland: B Mccarthy -160 Top 7-2 Loss -160 11 h 21 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -160
The Key: The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 overall, 0-4 in their last 4 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. They are even 0-8 in Duensing's last 8 starts when the total is set at 7.0-8.5, 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 overall and 3-0 in McCarthy's last 3 home starts. McCarthy has an ERA of only 1.62 at home while Duensing has an ERA of 5.31 on the road. Bet Oakland.
08-18-12 Chicago White Sox -143 v. Kansas City Royals Top 4-9 Loss -143 13 h 33 m Show
7* American League Game of the Month on White Sox -143
The Key: The White Sox went down yesterday, but they are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. They are also a reliable 37-18 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago has had plenty of success against left-handed starters lately, and I expect that success to continue with KC bringing Bruce Chen (5.56 ERA) to the mound. The White Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals are 1-5 in Chen's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Jake Peavy, a former Cy Young with a 3.04 ERA, is the far better investment. Bet Chicago.
08-17-12 Tampa Bay: J Shields v. LA Anaheim: J Weaver -165 Top 12-3 Loss -165 13 h 37 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -165
The Key: After getting shut out Thursday, there's no one the Angels would rather hand the ball to than ace Jered Weaver. In fact, they are 8-0 in Weaver's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. They are also a perfect 7-0 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. the tough American League East. It's also worth mentioning that the Rays are just 1-10 in Shields' last 11 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. Take LAA.
08-16-12 San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 Top 0-6 Win 111 10 h 0 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 +111
The Key: I'm going to continue to ride the Braves with Kris Medlen on the mound. They are a perfect 14-0 in his last 14 starts and have won those by an average of 3.2 runs. They have won each of his last 7 starts by at least 2 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
08-15-12 San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves -161 Top 1-6 Win 100 10 h 8 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -161
The Key: I'm sticking with the Braves today. They have won 25 of their last 35, and I love the chances with Maholm on the mound. He is 7-1 on the money line in his last 8 starts and has allowed 1 run or none in each of those 7 victories. Volquez has had a decent season, but he has been roughed up lately (13.50 ERA last 3 starts). Consider that plays against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SAN DIEGO) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) - and provided their starting pitcher (Volquez) gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, are 74-19 the last 5 seasons. This system has produced an 18-6 record already this season. Take Atlanta.
08-14-12 San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves -163 Top 0-6 Win 100 10 h 12 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -163
The Key: The Padres can't be trusted with Richard on the hill outside pitcher-friendly Petco. The Padres have lost 10 of his 13 road starts this season, and they are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Plus, the Braves have never lost to Richard, who is 0-4 lifetime with an ERA of 7.36 in 4 career starts against them. Also, the Braves 7-0 Hudson
08-13-12 Washington: G Gonzalez v. San Francisco: Vogelsong -115 Top 14-2 Loss -115 13 h 33 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -115
The Key: The Giants have the advantage at home tonight with Vogelsong on the hill. They are 9-0 in Vogelsong's last 9 starts as a favorite, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-0 in his last 7 series-opening starts. The Nats have lost 9 of their last 12 in San Francisco and should fall again here as Vogelsong outduels Gonzalez.
08-12-12 Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks -113 Top 4-7 Win 100 8 h 20 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -113
The Key: Washington rallied to win yesterday thanks to two Arizona errors and a wild pitch in the 5th, but I expect its luck to run out here. The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in their last 20 games vs. a left-handed starter and 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Nationals are 5-14 in Detwiler's last 19 starts as a road underdog and 1-11 in his last 12 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The total is high given Detwiler's 2.99 as it reflects Arizona's ability to hit lefties well (4.8 runs/game, 0.264 average against southpaw starters this season). The fact the D-backs are favored against one of the hottest teams in the league and the team with the best overall record tells us the odds makers are expecting them to win. I couldn't agree more with their assessment today. Take Arizona.
08-11-12 San Diego: J Marquis v. Pittsburgh: A Burnett -1.5 Top 5-0 Loss -100 12 h 46 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -1.5 +121
The Key: Pittsburgh is 10-0 in Burnett's home starts this season (2.6-run average winning margin in these games), 8-0 in his starts vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season (3.6-run avg winning margin in these games), 10-0 in his starts versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game this season. (3.1-run avg margin or victory in these games) and 9-0 in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (3.0-run avg margin of victory in these games). Take the Bucs on the run line as they win by 2-plus behind another outstanding outing from Burnett.
08-10-12 Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox -115 Top 3-4 Win 100 11 h 2 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on White Sox -115
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and having had a day off to regroup, expect the White Sox to bring their "A" game tonight. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. I also like the fact that the White Sox are 4-1 in Floyd's last 5 starts as a favorite. Oakland's McCarthy hasn't made a start since June 19, and I'm expecting to see some rust. Take the South Siders.
08-09-12 Cincinnati: M Leake -155 v. Chicago (N): C Volstad Top 3-5 Loss -155 11 h 38 m Show
7* National League Game of the Year on Reds -155
The Key: The Reds will be extremely motivated and focused after losing all 3 in Milwaukee. They are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and should have no promblem furthering this streak against the Cubs, who are 0-8 in their last 8 games. The Cubs are also 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. They have struggled against the righty they'll see tonight (Leake). Lastly, Chicago's scheduled starter (Volstad) is 0-12 on the money line in his last 12 starts. We'll take Cincinnati.
08-08-12 Cincinnati Reds -140 v. Milwaukee Brewers Top 2-3 Loss -140 5 h 56 m Show
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -140
The Key: The Reds are 3-0 in Latos' last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 1.77. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts against NL Central opponents. The Brewers are 0-3 in Wolf's last 3 starts, during which he has posted a 5.40 ERA. They are also 0-6 in his last 6 Wednesday starts and 0-8 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. It should also be mentioned that Cincy is 6-0 in its last 6 games vs. a southpaw starter.
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