Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Warriors have steamrolled through the postseason winning all 10 games and all but three have gone over the total including both games in this series. We will take the bounce angle route here and take the under as the total has risen by 3-4 points depending on the outlet so we are getting some excellent value based on the recent results. The Spurs have gone over the total in all but three of their 14 playoff games so the over will be another popular play based on these results as well. The only way San Antonio can get back into this series is playing better defense and we have seen that defense play strong on numerous occasions in the postseason. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich accused his team of basically quitting in Game Two with the blame going on the defense as they allowed the Warriors to shoot 56.2 percent from the floor including Golden St. to shoot 18-37 from long range. The Warriors are not as strong offensively on the road and if Kawhi Leonard can get back into the lineup, it will certainly be a big boost to the defense. The Under is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (723) Golden St. Warriors/(724) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-01-16 | Hornets v. Heat OVER 190 | Top | 73-106 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
We are going with some of the same reasoning and analysis for Sunday as after putting up 109 points in the first half Friday, Miami and Charlotte managed just 78 points in the second half. After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared for three straight games, scoring just 80, 85 and 88 points. To no surprise, the over came through in the first two games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte. A return to Miami should see more offense again despite Game Five staying under and the total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 190 which is at its lowest point and that presents great value. Going back to the regular season, four of five games taking place in Miami surpassed the total while all five games being played in Charlotte stayed under the number. Going back, the over is 8-2 in the Hornets last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is now 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Miami. 10* Over (727) Charlotte Hornets/(728) Miami Heat |
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04-29-16 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 190 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared the last three games, scoring just 80, 85 and 88 points. To no surprise, the over came through in both games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte while the last game also stayed under. The total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 198 to 196.5 to 194.5 to 194 and now the total is at its lowest and by a lot. We lost with the over in Game Five and we are going with it again here despite the fact that the first two games in this series in Charlotte stayed below the number. The Hornets offense, while efficient in the recent victories, is not the same unit that we are accustomed to and I think we see it return to form heading home. After averaging 11.1 three-pointers and 22.4 assists in the season's second half, Charlotte saw those averages sliced to 4.5 and 14.0, respectively, in Games Three and Four. The Miami offense has also fallen off after those first two games and we can expect the Heat to try and push the ball more as their halfcourt offense has been dismal. 10* Over (709) Miami Heat/(710) Charlotte Hornets |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat OVER 193 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared the last two games in Charlotte, scoring just 80 and 85 points. To no surprise, the over came through in both games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte. A return to Miami should see more offense again and the total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 198 to 196.5 to 194.5 and now the total is at its lowest tonight which presents great value. Going back to the regular season, all four games taking place in Miami surpassed the total while all four games being played in Charlotte stayed under the number so the postseason is keeping the trend alive. A main factor has been the Miami offense at home and the Hornets defense on the road as the Heat are shooting 48.8 percent on the season at home while averaging 104 ppg and on the flip side, the Charlotte defense has allowed opponents to shoot 46.2 percent from the floor while giving up 103 ppg. Charlotte has gone over the total in seven straight games prior to the last two contests and going back, the over is 5-0 in the Hornets last five road games. Meanwhile the over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Miami. 10* Over (575) Charlotte Hornets/(576) Miami Heat |
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04-25-16 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 206 | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
The Blazers won on Saturday to make this a series again after getting beat by 20 and 21 points in Los Angeles. While they will try and even up the series tonight, we are concentrating on the total where we are getting a ton of value based on the first three outcomes. The first three games of this series have gone under the total and we are catching the best line of them all as far as a game to go over. The total has shifted significantly as well, going from 210.5 in the opener to its current spot at 206. The last game saw just 184 points and that is making the jump from Game Three to Game Four the biggest thus far. Looking at numbers alone, both offenses are more than capable of putting up big numbers and the fact that the teams have not done it together in this series is a little surprising. Going back, the over is 5-2 in the Clippers last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is 12-5 in the Blazers last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (565) Los Angeles Clippers/(566) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers OVER 193 | Top | 83-100 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
The first three games of this series have gone under the total and we are catching the best line of them all as far as a game to go over. The total adjustments have been minor as the first two games closed at 195 while Game Three closed at 194.5 so we are seeing a bucket difference from the opener which may seem insignificant to some but it still represents value. Toronto seized control of the series with wins in the last two games after dropping Game One and it will be up to the Pacers offense to get things going after scoring just 87 and 85 points in the two losses. Indiana had the same number of turnovers as field goals in the first half, 12, so it was clear that it was a far from efficient effort. In total, Indiana has stayed under the total in five straight games while Toronto has stayed under in four straight none of which have had a total this low so the contrarian play has value on it as well. 10* Over (545) Toronto Raptors/(546) Indiana Pacers |
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04-21-16 | Thunder v. Mavs OVER 196.5 | Top | 131-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
We had a good number in Game Two but it did not pan out but we are going at it again in Game three based on the same philosophy. This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happened in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. It works with totals as well and we are seeing a big move in this one because of the result from the first two games. We are seeing a drop in this total of close to ten points from Game One based on the fact the total stayed under by 28 points in Game One and 34 points in Game Two. Both offenses have had their struggles as Dallas is shooting just 36.1 percent while Oklahoma City is hitting just 39 percent of its shots, the latter highlighted by Kevin Durant and his 26 missed shots. He no doubt will have a better game here as the Dallas defense is not as good as what may have been portrayed and neither is the Thunder defense for that matter. This is a rare number for both teams as of 168 total games, only 26 had closing totals of less than 200 so the value is tremendous. The over is 5-2 in the last seven road games for Oklahoma City against teams with a winning home record while the over is 6-2 in the last eight home games for Dallas against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (533) Oklahoma City Thunder/(534) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-18-16 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 200 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happen in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. It works with totals as well and we are seeing a big move in this one because of the result from Game One. Dallas played one of its worst game of the season and one of its worst in postseason team history as its point total (70) and field goal shooting (29.8 percent) were franchise playoff worsts while the 38-point margin of defeat was the second worst all time in a Mavericks playoff game, topped only by the 43-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in Game One of a 1984 second-round series. Offensively, things cannot get much worse so that is in our favor and we all know what the Thunder are capable of doing on offense. The total in Game One closed at 206 and now we are seeing a drop of six points in some places which presents extreme value. Three of four regular season meetings went over the total and all those were set at 207.5 or higher. Going back, the over is 6-2 in the Mavericks last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record while the over is 15-6 in the Thunders last 21 games playing on one day of rest. 10* Over (519) Dallas Mavericks/(520) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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03-31-16 | George Washington v. Valparaiso OVER 132 | Top | 76-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
George Washington and Valparaiso square off for the NIT Championship on Thursday and the game has the potential to come down to the final possession as both have been playing at a high level. There is much better value in the total here with a lot of based on the number itself and also with the situation. Both semifinal games stayed under the total as both teams were playing at MSG for the first time and playing in a new arena can have effects on the offensive side but now both with a game under their belt here, the sightlines should be significantly better. Both teams shot an identical 42.6 percent from the floor on Tuesday and I expect both to be much better tonight. George Washington and San Diego St. had a closing total of 132.5 which stayed well below the total and while this number is slightly higher, it should be much higher. The total on Tuesday was based on the San Diego St. defense, one of the best in the country and while the Crusaders possess a good defense, it does not compare to that of the Aztecs. Valparaiso stayed under by seven points and this total is 16 points lower than its total against BYU and that is a huge and overaggressive swing. This is the lowest total the Crusaders have seen in 10 games and they have gone 6-3 to the over in nine games since. Going back, the over is 4-1 in the Colonials last five games following a straight up win while the over is 4-1 in the Crusaders last five games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (713) George Washington Colonials/(714) Valparaiso Crusaders |
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02-23-16 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 209 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Orlando has gone over the total in each of its last two games but not by big margins. In the last game, the Magic went over by just four points while in the game prior to that, it took overtime for the total to be surpassed. Thy are right at 50 percent with their over/unders this season but we are getting a lot of value as this is just the third time this season that Orlando has seen a total of higher than 207. The Sixers have gone over the total in each of their last three games as the defense, which is bad to begin with, has been really bad by allowing 114, 121 and 129 points. Philadelphia has been more of an over team this season but by a slight margin and because of the recent run, the value is in its number as well. The Sixers have had larger totals than Orlando but not of significance. The first two meetings this season have seen a split with the over/under but the one game that went over would have stayed under had the total tonight been posted. The under is 13-3 in the last 16 games for Orlando against teams with a losing straight up record including 5-0 to the under against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Additionally, the Magic are 4-0 to the under this season as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the under is 8-2 in the Sixers last 10 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* Under (701) Orlando Magic/(702) Philadelphia 76ers |
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02-15-16 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 143.5 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
We are going contrarian with this total as we are getting exceptional value based on recent results from both sides. Oklahoma St. has gone under the total in 14 of 23 games this season including its last six games. The Cowboys do not push the ball as they are ranked near the bottom of Division I in possessions per game but the opposition has played a role in that as they have faced teams ranked 179th, 142nd, 227th and 271st of late while Kansas comes in ranked 113th in pace. The Jayhawks have gone under the total in 15 of 23 games this season including its last four games. They are coming off a game against fast paced Oklahoma and that game likely would have gone over if the Sooners did not shoot so horribly in the first half. Going back further, Kansas has gone under in nine of its last 10 conference games and the only one that went over was the first meeting at Oklahoma St. With Kansas getting blown out there, it will be up to return the favor so pushing the ball here is very likely and the Jayhawks score a ton here anyway, averaging 87.3 ppg at home including 85.6 ppg in conference games. The over is 11-5 in the Cowboys last 16 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the over is 9-3 in the Jayhawks last 12 Monday games. 10* Over (707) Oklahoma St. Cowboys/(708) Kansas Jayhawks |
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01-21-16 | Hawks v. Kings OVER 216 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
Both Atlanta and Sacramento are coming off wins last night and both put in solid defensive efforts which we should see a reversal tonight. The Hawks defeated Portland 104-98 and held the Blazers to 43.6 percent shooting from the floor including 29 percent from long range. Meanwhile, the Kings defeated the Lakers 112-93 as they allowed just 35.6 percent shooting including 16 percent from long range. Both defensive efforts were better than both season averages and now each team faces a much better offensive team as well as facing teams with a much higher pace. Sacramento is the fastest team in the NBA while Atlanta checks in as the 12th fastest. The teams also fall into the "90 Percent Guideline" where adding up the offensive shooting percentage and defensive shooting percentage from each team and both exceed 90 percent. The Hawks have gone under the total in three straight games while Sacramento has gone under the total in two straight games which gives us the contrarian value for this matchup. Going back, the over is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 games against teams with a losing straight up record while the over is 8-2 in the Kings last 10 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* Over (707) Atlanta Hawks/(708) Sacramento Kings |
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12-08-15 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 215 | Top | 131-123 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The undefeated streak of the Warriors is the big storyline but they are on another streak as well as they have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has been off the charts all season long as Golden St. has yet to be held to fewer than 100 points but could tonight be the night? Over this six-game stretch, only Toronto has a better defense than what the Warriors will be facing tonight and the of those teams possess three of the top six worst defenses in the NBA. Indiana has gone over the total in two straight as it has had two straight shootouts, but those were aberrations of what has happened this season. Those games were on the road and the Pacers defense at home is allowing just 94.9 ppg on 43.4 percent shooting and it's pretty safe to say they cannot win this game if it gets into a trackmeet. Here, we play on the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after a win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 24-3 (88.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (501) Golden St. Warriors/(502) Indiana Pacers |
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12-06-15 | Kings v. Thunder UNDER 220.5 | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
It is pretty rare to see an NBA total in the 220's but that is what we have tonight between Oklahoma City and Sacramento. Only once this season between these two teams in 40 games combined has there been a total more than 220 and the Kings and Warriors stayed under it by more than 23 points. Oklahoma City has stayed under the total in five straight games and it is the defense that has been the difference, allowing just 95.6 ppg over that stretch. This series has seen the total be in the 200's in nine of the last 10 meetings and all nine of those have stayed below the number. The Oklahoma City under run puts them in a solid situation where we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 33-9 (78.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 9-0 in the Thunder's last nine games against teams with a losing record while the under is 7-0 in the Kings last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (509) Sacramento Kings/(510) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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12-02-15 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 196.5 | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Denver has dropped six straight games and the offense has gotten progressively worse over the stretch as the Nuggets scored 107 points in the first loss and are coming off a season-low 74 points scored at Milwaukee on Monday. The under has come through over the last four games which came after a four-game over run where the offense was much more efficient and the dense was awful. Chicago meanwhile has alternated wins and losses over its last five games but going back further, the Bulls have gone under the total in seven straight games. While their own defense has looked sharp, they have gone against some very tough defenses of late with the last four games coming against teams ranked in the top ten in shooting percentage defense. Denver is ranked 5th worst. The Bulls defense has performed very well this season allowing just 41.1 percent shooting but the pace is the difference as Chicago is the 7th fastest team in the league with 102.2 possessions per game and its 91.3 field goal attempts allowed per game is by far the most. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or better while the over is 6-2 in the Bulls last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (509) Denver Nuggets/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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12-01-15 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 202.5 | Top | 97-85 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Washington has gotten off to a horrible start to the season based on expectations coming in and it certainly doesn’t get any easier here. The offense has been atrocious the last three games as the Wizards have scored 87, 78 and 82 points and to no surprise, all of those games stayed below the total. I expect a big effort tonight against an average Cleveland defense that has been very inconsistent. The Cavaliers have stayed below the total in two straight games as the offense has tallied just 90 and 95 points but now they face a Wizards defense that has allowed 105.1 ppg on 46 percent shooting through 14 games, both of which are 25th in the NBA. Cleveland is shooting 46.1 percent while averaging 103.1 ppg and prior to this two-game under run, they had gone over the total in six straight. Here we play the over involving road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, first half of the season. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) to the under since 1996. Meanwhile, the over is 40-17-1 in the Cavaliers last 58 games playing on two days rest. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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11-30-15 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 193.5 | Top | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Boston went to Orlando last night and got throttled by 19 points but more important for our purposes here, it was its third straight under after going over in its previous four games. Now the Celtics are catching a total that is the lowest they have seen all season and the time they have had one south of 200 in 15 consecutive games. The Heat meanwhile have gone under in four straight games but those four games were against teams ranked 24th, 29th and 30th in the NBA in scoring offense while Boston is a top 10 offense. The under has been a trend all season with 15 of 17 staying below the total but only three games overall have come against top 10 offenses. The trend for the over/unders for Miami has seen the number go down in each of these past four games and while this one is back up a bit, it is still in a good range based on the opponent. The over is 6-1 in the Celtics last seven games against teams with a winning record while the over is 6-1 in Heat's last seven games against team with a winning record. 10* Over (501) Boston Celtics/(502) Miami Heat |
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11-29-15 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 205.5 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
The Clippers had lost four of five games before trouncing New Orleans on Friday with the offense putting up 111 points. That offense has been inconsistent of late but they are still the sixth highest scoring team in the NBA and the recent inconsistencies has led to a run of five straight unders. Minnesota is also coming off a win, its third straight, and it has been the defense that has led the way so something has to give today. That defense has led the Timberwolves to four straight unders but now they face a real challenge. Both teams are in the top ten in the NBA in shooting percentage and we are seeing a significant decrease in the total than each team had in its previous game. The over is 8-2 in the Clippers last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record and the over is 12-3 in their last 15 games following a win. Meanwhile, the over is 51-33 in the Timberwolves last 84 games following one or more consecutive unders with an average of 210 ppg scored in those follow up games. 10* Over (703) Minnesota Timberwolves/(704) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-27-15 | Heat v. Knicks OVER 187 | Top | 97-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Both Miami and New York suffered losses on Wednesday as each offense could not keep up. Expect those offenses to move things along tonight against inconsistent defenses. These teams are a combined 22-7-1 to the under and that is keeping this total down and is actually a bucket lower than what it was when they met on Monday. The over is 10-1 in the Heat's last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the over is 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, New York is 23-11 to the over in its last 34 games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) New York Knicks |
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11-24-15 | Bulls v. Blazers OVER 201.5 | Top | 93-88 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Chicago has not gotten off to a good start on this west coast swing as it has split the first two games but you cannot fault the Bulls for a loss against Golden St. as no team has been able to solve the Warriors thus far. Both of those games stayed below the total to make it three straight unders and these last two have had closing totals higher than tonight's. The offense will get a boost tonight with the return of Derrick Rose as three days off since the Golden St. game has given his ankle time to heal. Portland has won two straight games since suffering through a seven-game losing streak. The defense has been the difference but those games came against the dreadful Lakers and the struggling Clippers. After seven straight overs, Portland has gone under the total in four of its last five games and with that, the over/under is affected as it is the second lowest over this six-game stretch, the lowest being a point lower against the Spurs, which posses the best defense in the NBA. The Bulls possess a better offense than in the past and they are playing at a much fast pace than in the past as they are averaging 102.4 possessions per game, seventh most in the NBA. While the Chicago defense is still solid, Portland is 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or lower. 10* Over (509) Chicago Bulls/(510) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-17-15 | Hornets v. Knicks OVER 195.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Charlotte and New York meet for the second time in less than a week and while the game was not decided until the final buzzer, the game stayed well below the total as 188 total points were scored in a game that closed with a 200.5 over/under. We are now getting a number that is a couple buckets lower than that obviously due to that result but also to extended runs from both sides. Charlotte is 3-0-1 to the under in its last four games with all those games closing at 199 or higher while the Knicks have gone under in three straight games and seven of their last eight games and tonight's number is the lowest of the bunch. The offense should continue to get better with the improved play of Carmelo Anthony as through the first six games, he shot 37.5 percent or worse five times but since then, he is averaging 26.6 ppg on 45.9 percent shooting and 38.7 percent from long range. Going back, New York is 67-41 to the over in its last 108 games as a home underdog of three points or less while the Hornets are 7-1 to the over their last eight games against teams with a losing record. We see a much higher scoring game here than what we saw last week. 10* Over (709) Charlotte Hornets/(710) New York Knicks |
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11-15-15 | Blazers v. Hornets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Portland's totals have been all over the place over the last 11 days, ranging from 189.5 to 206 yet the Trailblazers have surpassed the total in each and every game. We are getting a number on the high side for Sunday and we are banking on a lower scoring game and that over streak coming to an end. It is a run that is surprising based on the fact that Portland is just 18th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 99.7 possessions per game. On the other side, Charlotte is 26th in the pace category as it averages just 98.6 possessions per game and its recent run of three straight unders coincides with that. While the Trailblazers have seen totals from all angles, this is the highest one that the Hornets have encountered this season. In all three games that Charlotte has had a total in the 200's, all fell below the mark of what it has here Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series as each of the last three years has resulted in a sweep of the over but again, this is the highest number of them all. 10* Under (705) Portland Trailblazers/(706) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-12-15 | Jazz v. Heat OVER 182 | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
After opening the season with an over against Charlotte, Miami has now gone under the total in its last seven games as the defense has been lights out over that stretch. Because of this, the totals have to be adjusted based on the opponent and tonight sees the lowest over/under that Miami has seen this season. Additionally, this is the first total for the Heat that has been in the 180's and it is on the low end for that matter and going back, Miami is 17-4 to the over in its last 21 home games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. Utah is coming off a high scoring game in Cleveland to post just its second over of the season and that one also happened to be in the 180's. Utah is also playing solid defense but the key number here is the offensive shooting percentages which are a combined 89 percent. Utah is 4-0 to the over in its last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better while the over is 7-1 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Miami falls into a great situation for a high-scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 169-109 (60.8 percent) to the over since 1996. 10* Over (501) Utah Jazz/(502) Miami Heat |
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11-08-15 | Raptors v. Heat OVER 190.5 | Top | 76-96 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Miami and Indiana stayed below the total for us on Friday as we missed the over thanks to a dismal 79-point second half. That is done with and now we are set with a better matchup and an even better number to work with. This is by far the lowest total the Heats have seen this season and a big reason for that is the fact that they have gone under the total in five straight games after opening the season with an over against Charlotte. After opening the season by surpassing the century mark in its first five games, Toronto was held to just 87 points on Friday to suffer its first loss of the season. The defense has been excellent for the Raptors, as was the case last season, but now they go up against a Heat team that is shooting 46.3 percent on the season, good for sixth best in the NBA. Like Miami, Toronto has been on an under run, going below the total in four straight games and similarly to the Heat, this is the lowest total the Raptors have seen as well. Toronto is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points while Miami has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 games following a loss. 10* Over (505) Toronto Raptors/(506) Miami Heat |
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11-06-15 | Heat v. Pacers OVER 196.5 | Top | 87-90 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Both Miami and Indiana are off to average starts this season and both have been involved in some very low scoring games this season. I think that changes tonight as we are bucking that trend and going with the value play in what looks to be a high scoring game. The Heat opened the season with an over against Charlotte but since then, they have stayed under the total in four straight games with none of those really coming close to going over. The Pacers meanwhile are off to a similar start where they went over in their first two games but have stayed under the total in their last three games and like Miami, none have been close to surpassing the number. The contrarian approach tonight is to see both streaks broken. From a pace standpoint, both teams are averaging more possessions per game than they did last season so we should see an uptempo style in this matchup. Indiana is 50-32 to the over in its last 82 games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 and 8-3 to the over in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the over is 5-2 in Miami's last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (511) Miami Heat/(512) Indiana Pacers |
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11-04-15 | Magic v. Rockets OVER 208 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Orlando and Houston are coming off their first wins of the season after 0-3 starts as the Magic won last night in New Orleans while the Rockets took care of Oklahoma City on Monday. The offense finally came to life for Houston against the Thunder as it went over the century mark for the first time this season but the defense remains a concern, as it is allowing 107.8 ppg. Despite this, all four of the Rockets games have stayed under the total and we are getting value now because of that. The Magic have now covered all four games this season and while it is tempting to go against that tonight, laying that number with the Houston defense does not seem logical. Orlando has gone under the total in three of four games including the last two games so it also fits into the contrarian situation here as well. The lone game that went over comes against a similar style team as the game with Oklahoma City easily eclipsed the total even before overtime came into play. Orlando is 31-13 to the over in its last 44 games against teams shooting 41 percent or worse while Houston is 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (511) Orlando Magic/(512) Houston Rockets |
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06-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 195 | Top | 91-104 | Push | 0 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
The total has been killing us in this series but now is not the time to lay off as we will come back with the over in Game Five. Golden St. was able to regain home court advantage with a commanding win in Cleveland in Game Four. Now that the Warriors are back home, they can carry the momentum from that game as the offense got back on track. They managed 103 points on 46.8 percent shooting including 40 percent from long range, huge improvements from the previous two games. Cleveland was the problem in Game Four as it shot just 33 percent including a horrid 14.8 percent from long range, missing 23 of 27 attempts. Scoring only 12 points in the fourth quarter was the difference in that one staying under and even though the Cavaliers are now on the road, we will see a better performance offensively. The rest factor should come into play as well as the extra day will benefit both sides, especially Cleveland as fatigue has been a big issue. Going back, the Cavaliers are 38-16 to the over in their last 54 games playing with two days rest and that includes a 60 percent clip this season. 10* Over (709) Cleveland Cavaliers/(710) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-11-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 193 | Top | 103-82 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
The zig didn't zag in Game Three for the total as even a 60-point fourth quarter could not keep the game from staying under the total. We will go against the grain again and look for the bounce theory to hold true for Game Four to send this game over the total. The first two games of this series went into overtime and despite that, Game Two stayed well below the total. In Game One, the under would have come in if not for the extra time as it snuck over by a few points. Because of those regulation results, we have seen the over/under go from 203.5 to 199 to 194 to 193 so we are getting over a 10-point swing in a matter of just four games. That is some incredible value and while it was roughly the same last game and did not come through, I expect a different story on Thursday. For one, this Golden St. offense has now been held in check in two straight games and Tuesday represented only the second time all season that the Warriors are under 60 points after three quarters and the first time it happened it was in Game Two. Give Cleveland credit for great defense and Matt Dellavedova has been the key. The problem is he is not 100 perfect and head coach David Blatt said he will limit his minutes because of the cramps and fatigue. Now it's time to see some points. 10* Over (707) Golden St. Warriors/(708) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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06-09-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 194 | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The NBA Finals shifts back to Cleveland where the Cavaliers have obtained home court advantage as they were able to split in Golden St. they come in as a short home underdog but we will be looking at the total tonight where we are getting a very strong number to work with. The first two games of this series have gone into overtime and despite that, the last games stayed well below the total. In Game One, the under would have come in if not for the extra time as it snuck over by a few points. Because of those regulation results, we have seen the over/under go from 203.5 to 199 to 194 so we are getting close to a 10-point swing in a matter of just three games. Both teams have gone under the total in the majority of their games this season but those have come with some high totals as they are a combined 11-7 to the over when the over/under is less than 195. While defense has been the story so far, I expect the shooting to improve tonight and namely, that comes from Stephen Curry where he was just 5-23 from the floor including just 2-15 from long range. The Warriors have scored fewer than 100 points 19 other times this season and they have eclipsed the century mark all but three times in the next game. Meanwhile, the over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (705) Golden St. Warriors/(706) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-27-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The under came through in the first three games of this series before Game Four easily went over the number by 29 points. Because of that result, we are seeing the total rise back up slightly for Game Five which goes back to Golden St. where the Warriors look to finish off Houston. Like Cleveland last night, they want to end it here to avoid another game and get as much rest as possible. The Cavaliers did it with defense to close out Atlanta and I expect Golden St. to turn up the defense after allowing 128 points on Monday which was the most amount of points they have given up all season. The Warriors have allowed 100 or more points in the playoffs only three times and the first two times they clamped down in the next game. While many take Golden St. as an explosive team that often plays high-scoring games, that couldn't be further from the truth as 42 of their 95 games have stayed below the total. The under is 6-0-1 in the Warriors last seven home games while the under is 9-4 in the Rockets last 13 games against winning teams. Look for Golden St. to regroup on defense which will be the key for a low scoring game tonight. 10* Under (517) Houston Rockets/(518) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-15-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 193.5 | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
After losing this total the last two games, we are jumping on again party to the law of averages but also because we are now really seeing some value and a lot of the same jargon goes along with it. We have now seen the first five games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first six contests. The over/under has now moved 4-4.5 points from the last game due the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. Tonight is the lowest of the bunch by over a bucket and the linesmakers are well aware that if they move this number too much, the over could get hammered which would set up a big liability for them. This is only the second time all season that Golden St. has had a total of less than 195 and that game ended up going over the number. While the Memphis defense can be considered a key reason, the Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shooting over 44.1 percent on the season including 45.9 percent at home, both of which are higher than what Golden St. allows. The Warriors offense just has not been in synch this series due to the pace but this is certainly the game to get it going and while the trends for the under are numerous, we will go against all of those and cash in a high scoring ticket. 10* Over (747) Golden St. Warriors/(748) Memphis Grizzlies |
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05-13-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors OVER 195 | Top | 78-98 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
We lost with this total Monday but will come back with it tonight with the change of venue probably playing a big role. We have seen the first four games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first five contests. The over/under has not moved much despite the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. Tonight is the lowest of the bunch and even though not by much, the linesmakers are well aware that if they move this number too much, the over could get hammered which would set up a big liability for them. The Warriors offense played their best game since the opener and while the Memphis defense will likely try and slow it down, this Golden St. offense is due to bust out at home where it has averaged 112 ppg on 49.3 percent shooting. Obviously, the under is on a role and the trends favor those once again but we will again go contrarian and look for the first shootout in this series. 10* Over (739) Memphis Grizzlies/(740) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-11-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 196 | Top | 101-84 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The top seeds from each conference are down 2-1 in their series and both need to win on the road tonight to avoid a 3-1 deficit which will makes things extremely tough going forward. Memphis has taken the last two games in this series and to no surprise, it is again a home underdog in what is pretty much a must win for the Warriors. We are concentrating on the total tonight however as we have seen the first three games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first four. The over/under has not moved much despite the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. While the Memphis defense can be considered a key reason, the Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shooting over 44 percent on the season including 45.8 percent at home, both of which are higher than what Golden St. allows. The Warriors offense just has not been in synch the last two games but this is certainly the game to get it going and while the trends for the under are numerous, we will go against all of those and cash in a high scoring ticket. 10* Over (731) Golden St. Warriors/(732) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-30-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 206 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
We have seen the last two games of this series fly over the total but with a lot at stake tonight, I see a much lower scoring game and we are getting value on top of it. Game Four closed with a 202.5 total and Game Five closed only slightly higher at 203 but now we are seeing a three-point shift from Tuesday to now and a lot of that is based upon the results of the last two games. We talk about the bounce angle in the playoffs and while it is typically used for the pointspread, the shifts in the over/unders make it a valuable totals tool as well. The most recent example came in the Atlanta/Brooklyn series where the first three games all stayed under the total but Game Four easily eclipsed the number and even though there were three straight games that went under, the likelihood of three straight games going over here is a lot less. While both Los Angeles and San Antonio are considered high scoring teams, and that is a fact, the linesmakers know what they are doing which is a reason that both teams have seen the under cash at a high clip this season. The under is 7-2 in the Clippers last nine games coming off a loss and 11-5 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been a higher scoring team when playing poor opposition and they are 9-17 to the under this season when favored by fewer than six points. 10* Under (535) Los Angeles Clippers/(536) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-27-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 195.5 | Top | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
After dropping the over in this one Saturday, we are coming back with it again for all of the same reasons and we are seeing even greater value now. We have seen the first three games of this series go under the total but I expect that to change tonight. While the over was never even in jeopardy during the first three games, we are seeing a shift in the total which we can take advantage of. Game One closed at 205, Game Two closed at 202.5 and Game Three closed at 199 and we are seeing a similar shift into Game Four. It is also interesting to note that these two teams played in April during the regular season and those totals were also higher that what we are seeing tonight and those gamers resulted in easy overs, posting 230 and 225 points. Atlanta has a combined offensive and defensive shooting percentage of 90.2 percent while Brooklyn has a combined shooting percentage of 90.3 percent with offense and defense and anytime you can get two teams that are both over 90 percent, as long as the pace is in our favor, we have a great chance to surpass the total. Going back, the over is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 road games while the over is 12-4 in the Nets last 16 games following a win. 10* Over (509) Atlanta Hawks/(510) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-25-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 200.5 | Top | 83-91 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
We have seen the first two games of this series go under the total but I expect that to change this afternoon and we are getting value on top of it. While the over was never even in jeopardy during the first two games, we are seeing a shift in the total which we can take advantage of. Game One closed at 205 and Game Two closed at 202.5 and we are seeing a similar shift into Game Three. It is also interesting to note that these two teams played in April during the regular season and those totals were also higher that what we are seeing tonight and those gamers resulted in easy overs, posting 230 and 225 points. Atlanta has a combined offensive and defensive shooting percentage of 90.4 percent while Brooklyn has a combined shooting percentage of 90.6 percent with offense and defense and anytime you can get two teams that are both over 90 percent, as long as the pace is in our favor, we have a great chance to surpass the total. Going back, the over is 4-1 in the Hawks last five road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 5-1 in the Nets last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Over (745) Atlanta Hawks/(746) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-10-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz OVER 178.5 | Top | 89-88 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This total continues to drop with a reason due to the fact that Memphis has stayed under the total in six straight games. The last game against New Orleans stayed below the total by just a half point as the defense once again came to the forefront by holding the Pelicans to 74 points on 35 percent shooting. It was the fourth straight games that the Grizzlies have held their opponent to 92 points or less but the challenge will be more difficult tonight. Utah has won two straight games with the offense putting up 101 and 103 points and while those games were both against Sacramento, the Jazz have been shooting the ball very well over the short-term. This number has dipped to the point of it being a very rare low number as this is just the second time this season Utah has had a total of less than 180 points and this is the first time it has occurred in a game for Memphis. The over is 4-1 in the Grizzlies last five road games while the over is 7-3 in Utah's last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. Look for a higher scoring game than anticipated tonight. 10* Over (721) Memphis Grizzlies/(722) Utah Jazz |
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04-08-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 184.5 | Top | 74-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This total came out late due to the uncertain status of Zach Randolph for the Grizzlies. Whether he plays or not, while it will certainly effect Memphis as a whole, it will not be a big factor in the total as his offense and defense would be a wash. New Orleans is coming off a win last night against Golden St. and coupled with the Oklahoma City loss, the Pelicans moved into eighth place in the Western Conference. They held Golden St. to 100 points which was just the third time in the last 23 games that the Warriors have been held to 100 or fewer points so that was an impressive defensive performance last night. They have picked up the defense of late but overall, they are still allowing 45.5 percent shooting and that jumps even higher on the road. New Orleans has gone under in three straight games and the low total is reflecting that. The Pelicans have not seen an over/under of less than 190 in 13 games. Memphis has gone under in five straight games and it has been a mix of offense and defense along the way. The Grizzlies have been off since Saturday and going back, they are 13-6 to the over in their last 19 games playing on three or more days rest. Meanwhile, the over is 5-2 in the Pelicans last seven games following an ATS win. 10* Over (715) New Orleans Pelicans/(716) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-07-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 205.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The Lakers and Clippers just met on Sunday and it resulted in a Clippers blowout victory by 28 points. The fourth and final meeting takes place tonight and while the Lakers will be out to avoid a four-game season series sweep, their defense cannot be trusted to think about victory and even coming within this big number. We are concentrating on the total here and based on that recent game, we are getting a great deal of value as this over/under is currently five points less than what it was just two nights ago. While the Lakers offense has stumbled of late, we can bank on the defense not showing any resistance as the stop unit has allowed 106.7 ppg on the road this season and 108.8 ppg over their last five games. I do expect the offense to improve as well as scoring fewer than 80 points in three straight games is a rarity in this league. The Clippers offense is perforating on a very high level right now as they have averaged 113 ppg over their last 10 games and don't expect it to slow down here. Both teams have stayed under in two straight games which both came after some runs on the over. The over is 6-2 in the Clippers last eight games following a double-digit win while the over is 9-3-1 in the Lakers last 13 games against the NBA Pacific. 10* Over (661) Los Angeles Lakers/(662)/Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-02-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors OVER 209.5 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
We are going with the value in this one based on recent history on both sides as well as the season series to date. The Suns offense has been poor during their four-game winning streak as they have scored no more than 99 points while averaging a mere 90.8 ppg which is considerably below their 103.5 ppg on the season. To no surprise, all four of those games have stayed below the total and the under has come in five straight games for Phoenix. While the Suns are 24-15 to the under at home, they are 20-16 to the over on the road. The Warriors meanwhile are on a similar run as they have stayed under the total in three straight games as the defense has led the charge by allowing just 95 ppg. While the defense has been good all season, this is below the season average 99 ppg and they will be facing an opponent that will run with them. These are the two fastest teams in the NBA as Golden St. averages 101.6 possessions per game while the Suns average 101 possessions per game. Additionally, the Warriors lead in possessions at home while Phoenix leads in possessions on the road. Golden St. is home after a four-game road trip and the over is 5-1 in the Warriors last six home games. 10* Over (705) Phoenix Suns/(706) Golden St. Warriors |
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03-31-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 199 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Both Indiana and Brooklyn are going after the eighth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference as the Pacers are a half-game out while the Nets are now tied with Boston after the Celtics win last night. While there is no real edge either way as both teams come in with some momentum, we are looking at a great spot for a low scoring game based on recent play and series games. Indiana has gone over the total in five straight games thanks to an offense that has averaged 105 ppg and a defense that has allowed close to 109 ppg. These averages are a complete aberration of the numbers from the entire season and I think we see things get back to normal tonight. The same goes for Brooklyn. While it has not been as consistent in scoring and allowing a big number of points of late, the Nets have scored 106 and 107 points the last two games, well above their season average. These teams played just over a week ago and they put on an offensive show with 234 points scored which made it two overs in two meetings this season and four straight going back to last season. Because of that last result, it is no surprise that this total is four points higher and it is also shaded higher because of the recent run for the Pacers. The under is 7-3 in the Pacers last 10 games following a win while the under is 5-2 in the Nets last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Under (763) Indiana Pacers/(764) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-25-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 201.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Atlanta has lost three straight games for the first time this season and while the offense has been erratic, the defense can take full responsibility. The Hawks have allowed 114, 123 and 114 points in those losses which followed up giving away 103 points which marks the first time this season they have allowed 100 or more points in four straight games. Prior to this recent stretch, Atlanta had allowed 110 or more points only seven times and followed those games up by allowing just 95.2 ppg. Orlando meanwhile has scored 100 or more points in three straight games for only the second time all season and after the first instance, the Magic put up 86 points which happened to be just a couple weeks ago. To no surprise, the last three games have gone over the total and we are catching a good number here with Atlanta having gone over the total in four straight games. Also, this is the highest total in this series on the season by five points. The under is 7-0 in the Hawks last seven games against Eastern Conference teams while the under is 4-1 in their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Meanwhile, Orlando is 24-4 to the under in its last 28 games against winning teams. 10* Under (757) Atlanta Hawks/(758) Orlando Magic |
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03-24-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 206 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
It has been another long season for the Kings but they are not giving up as they have won two straight games and both of those were done by the defense, allowing 91 and 86 points. Whether it was actually solid defense or plain bad offense on the other side or a mixture of the two, it provides us with a great opportunity for a high scoring game here. This is the first time the Kings have allowed fewer than 100 points in consecutive games since the first three games of the season but don't expect it again. Sacramento has allowed 90 points or less just eight times all season long and in the previous seven instances, it has allowed 100 or more points in all of those follow up games, allowing an average of 107.4 ppg. The Sixers have gone under the total in three straight games which is the biggest under run since late January. Since then Philadelphia is 5-1 to the over following consecutive unders and while its offense has been hit or miss, it scored 114 points against the Kings which was its last time it surpassed the century mark. The over is 6-2 in the 76ers last eight road games while the over is 4-1 in the Kings last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Over (659) Philadelphia 76ers/(660) Sacramento Kings |
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03-21-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets OVER 207 | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
A horrible call on the over in the Phoenix/New Orleans game on Thursday sets us up for a bounceback here and the total is in our favor. The last two meetings in this series had back ends of 220.5 and 217.5 and both went over without a problem and now we are catching a number that is 10 points less than that second one. Phoenix is in the midst of its second significant run of unders as after going eight straight games in January of staying under the total, it has now gone under in its last seven games. With the exception of Thursday, it has not been anything consistent however which is the key as one game of bad offense has been followed by one game of good defense and neither have intertwined. The Suns matched a franchise low for points in a victory in that game against New Orleans. It was their third-worst shooting performance of the season for a team that had scored at least 70 in a half twice this season. Houston has won three straight games and went over the number in the last one on Thursday and I expect that to continue here with this favorable number. The over is 5-2 in the Suns last seven games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game while the over is 4-1 in the Rockets last games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (507) Phoenix Suns/(508) Houston Rockets |
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03-20-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 210 | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Injuries are the story here as neither team is at full strength which of course caused a delay in the release of the line at most places and the total everywhere. The Hawks defense which has been very solid this season, did not perform well against Golden St. in their last game and will look to bounce back against a Thunder offense that has been on high octane despite the absence of Kevin Durant. Atlanta allowed 114 points on 52.4 percent shooting against the Warriors and that was just the eighth time they have allowed 110 or more points. In the previous seven times, the defense allowed fewer than 100 points six times whole allowing an average of 95.3 ppg. The Thunder have gone over the total in their last three games and the last two were not even close with 234 and 240 points being scored. Those were against two of the faster teams in the NBA however as they were both up and down games and the Hawks are not that team and do not want to get involved in a shootout knowing defense is the best cure for a bounce back. The under is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 games following a loss while the under is 17-7 in the Thunder's last 24 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (811) Atlanta Hawks/(812) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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03-19-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Phoenix Suns OVER 201 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This total came out late due to injuries for Anthony Davis and Brandon Knight for New Orleans and Phoenix respectively. The total is the play tonight as we are getting a very attainable number that is being aided by recent lack of success of the over. Phoenix is in the midst of its second significant run of unders as after going eight straight games in January of staying under the total, it has now gone under in its last six games. It has not been anything consistent however which is the key as one game of bad offense has been followed by one game of good defense and neither have intertwined. New Orleans is coming off a game against Milwaukee where 169 points were scored, its second lowest scoring game of the season. The Pelicans have had 11 previous games where fewer than 180 points were scored and in the follow up game, the over has come in 8 of those 11 times. Phoenix has been off since Sunday which is a good thing as the over is 5-1 in its last six games playing on three or more days rest while the over is 10-3 in the Pelicans last 13 games playing on one day of rest. Additionally, we play on the over involving a home team coming off a home win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .501 and .600. This situation is 63-29 (68.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (705) New Orleans Pelicans/(706) Phoenix Suns |
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03-14-15 | Temple v. SMU UNDER 127 | Top | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
These are two of the top defenses in the AAC and because of significant over runs that have taken place lately, we are getting a higher than expected total. Temple has gone over in three straight games and six of its last eight while the Mustangs have also surpassed the total in three straight games while going over in eight of their last nine. Both games from yesterday cleared the total with ease but those had a lot to do with the matchups and there is a dramatic difference today. The first meeting saw just 115 points scored while the second meeting finished with 125 points as late free throws inflated that one. We should see a slower paced game as Temple is ranked 183rd in the country in possessions per game while SMU is ranked 282nd and the defenses are even better. The Owls are 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense while SMU comes in ranked 83rd in that category. Temple scored 80 points yesterday which was just the fifth time is has scored 80 or more but it has failed to capitalize in its next game including putting up just 55 points last time it occurred. On the other side, the Mustangs have scored 70 or more points 12 times but have been held to an average of just 63 ppg in the following contest. 10* Under (531) Temple Owls/(532) SMU Mustangs |
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03-10-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 201 | Top | 127-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Sometimes streaks come together with no particular rhyme nor reason and that is the case with the Dallas over/under run. The Mavericks have stayed under the total 11 straight games and it is not due to the defense being strong throughout or the offense struggling every game. It has been a mix of both but rarely has there been consistency as well as both occurring the same night. There has been at least 99 points score by one side in eight of those games and it is a mix of both sides as Dallas has tallied that on offense four times while allowing at least a century mark five times. Meanwhile Cleveland has stayed below the total in two straight games as it has scored 97 and 89 points over that stretch which is the first time since early January the Cavaliers have failed to score 100 points at least once in consecutive games and that was when LeBron James was out. Now we are catching a smaller than anticipated total with two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA as Cleveland is eighth and Dallas is fourth. While no over trends favor Dallas because of the recent run, the over is 5-1 in the Cavaliers last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* Over (657) Cleveland Cavaliers/(658) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-09-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns OVER 216 | Top | 98-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Two of the three highest scoring teams in the NBA square off tonight and while this total may seem high, we are getting a bargain. One look at the last meeting will show you the value as just over a month ago, a 225 over/under was posted so we are seeing a significantly lower number. That game stayed under by 32 points which was the second under in two meetings this season and that is helping with the value as is the recent runs on both sides. Golden St. has stayed under the total in its last three games while Phoenix has stayed under the total in its last two contests. The Warriors defense has been the reason of late as they have allowed just 93.3 ppg over the three-game stretch but those games were all at home where the defense has been a lot better than on the road. Phoenix allows the second most points in the NBA at home while it averages the third most points on offense at home. The over is 12-4 in the Suns last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the over is 17-9 in the Warriors 26 games this season as a single-digit favorite. 10* Over (713) Golden St. Warriors/(714) Phoenix Suns |
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03-07-15 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks OVER 189.5 | Top | 92-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Indiana and New York meet for the second time in four days and while New York will out to seek revenge following a 23-point loss in Indiana, we see some excellent value with the total as the situation is heavily in our favor. The Pacers have played a game in-between the two meetings as they faced the Bulls last night and came away with a big home victory as the defense once again put forth an outstanding effort. The Pacers allowed an average of 81.5 ppg during their four-game homestand, all of which resulted in wins and the under cashing. Now Indiana hits the road where the over has been cashing plenty of tickets, 22 of 31 to be exact, the highest road over percentage in the NBA. Playing with no rest also helps the cause as the defense is unit that gets fatigued. The Knick have been off since that last meeting but even with the rest, the defense will not be any better off as they are allowing 111.4 ppg over their last five games. The offense has been hot and cold but playing a tired Pacers defense will help. New York had gone over in its previous four games before Wednesday and on the other side, the over is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 games playing on no days rest. 10* Over (507) Indiana Pacers/(508) New York Knicks |
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03-06-15 | Boston Celtics v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 200.5 | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
We played on Boston Wednesday and while that resulted in a push, the low scoring outcome sent the Celtics into their third straight game that has gone under the total. This is definitely a rarity as Boston has not had many long streaks of low scoring games and on the season, this is just the third three-game under run and overall, the Celtics are 7-3 to the over following two or more consecutive unders. Boston is one of only four teams in the NBA that are averaging 100 or more possessions in their games and the lone team from the Eastern Conference to do so. That gives them more opportunities on both ends of the floor. New Orleans is also riding a three-game under streak following four consecutive overs. The offense have been held in check for the most part during this recent run but should get going again against a poor Boston defense. While the Pelicans are not a fast paced team, they are one of only seven teams in the league whose offensive and defensive combined shooting percentages are more than 91 percent. The over is 7-2 in the Celtics last nine games following a win while the over is 17-4 in the Pelicans last 21 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (819) Boston Celtics/(820) New Orleans Pelicans |
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03-04-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Miami Heat UNDER 199 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Over half of Wednesday's NBA games were off the board until late morning with this being one of those. Goran Dragic is questionable for Miami tonight with a back injury while Nick young is questionable for Los Angeles as he continues to nurse a knee injury and he will likely be out. Despite his absence over the last four games, the Lakers have gone over the total extending their streak to six games of surpassing the total. Four of these games have been at home however and the road has much more of a place where lower scoring games have occurred as prior to the most recent two, the Lakers were 11-2-1 to the under in their previous 14 games on the highway. Miami went over the total in its last game as it put up 115 points against Phoenix but it has been rare for the Heat to put together consecutive strong offensive games as after scoring 100 or more points, they have failed to reach the century mark in the next game 10 straight times, averaging just 88 ppg. Going back, the under is 14-4 in the Heat's last 18 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games playing on 0 days rest. 10* Under (715) Los Angeles Lakers/(716) Miami Heat |
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03-03-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls OVER 185.5 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This number was released late due the injuries on the Chicago side but we already knew the status of the players involved so withholding it made no sense. The Bulls are without a lot of offense and its recent history is giving us a lot of value with the over tonight. Chicago has stayed under the total in four straight games and only one of those even came close to the posted number as the offense has struggled while the defense has held its own. This is the first game that Jimmy Butler will not start since being diagnosed with a sprained elbow and while his offense will be missed, so will his defense and there is plenty around to make up for his missing offense. Washington meanwhile has gone under the total in three straight games but the offense has been more productive going forward. Overall, the Wizards are averaging 98.7 ppg on 46.6 percent shooting, the latter being tied for third best in the NBA. The over is 7-1 in the Wizards last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. I expect their offense to continue to improve while the Bulls will find a way to fill the pieces and send this one over. 10* Over (509) Washington Wizards/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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03-01-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Houston Rockets OVER 207.5 | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the injury report on the Cleveland side but there are no questionable statuses for key players. We played the Cavaliers/Pacers over on Friday but we got dealt some unfortunate luck as both LeBron James and Kyrie Irvine were late scratches and while Irvine will not play here, James is back. The offense managed only 86 points without them which broke a four-game streak of scoring at least 100 points. While the defense did hold Indiana to 93 points, the Cavaliers are allowing 100 ppg on the road on 46.2 percent shooting, the latter being the fourth highest in the NBA. While Cleveland has gone under the total in four straight games, Houston has stayed below the number in its last two games and five of its last six. The offense has done its part though on this homestand, averaging 105.8 ppg through the first four games and I expect the success to continue. The first meeting this season stayed under the total but that was by just a half-point and going back, the over is 5-2 in the Cavaliers last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is 8-3 in the Rockets last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (813) Cleveland Cavaliers/(814) Houston Rockets |
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02-28-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 193 | Top | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
We played the Grizzlies/Clippers over last night and a 33-point first quarter pretty much killed that call. Memphis ended up with just 79 points as it shot a mere 37.9 percent from the floor including 25 percent from long range but I expect a huge turnaround tonight. The Grizzlies have gone under the total in eight straight games which is affecting the number tonight not mention the fact that it is five points less than the total posted in the last meeting in Memphis three weeks ago. The Timberwolves are coming off a loss last night in Chicago as they were held to just 89 points but they were held to just 77 shot attempts and with both teams coming off a game last night, I expect the offense to be able to muster more. Minnesota has gone under in two straight games which is an anomaly from the defense that has allowed only 173 points combined in those two games. Overall, the Timberwolves are allowing 105.6 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting on the season, both of which are worst in the NBA. 10* Over (507) Memphis Grizzlies/(508) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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02-27-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 198 | Top | 97-79 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Clippers and Grizzlies met just four days ago and played a low scoring game that finished with just 177 points. That was the seventh straight under for Memphis while it was the second straight under for Los Angeles and all of this put together is giving us some great value on the over tonight as the total is four points or more less that what it was in that previous meeting. While these aren't two of the fastest teams in the NBA as far as pace goes, they make up for it in efficiency with the Clippers being number one and the Grizzlies number nine. This is a rare number for Los Angeles as this is the first time it has seen a total of less than 200 in close to a month, a span of 11 games. Memphis has seen more lower totals for sure and it has taken advantage by eclipsing the number more often than not when the total is below 200. we can call that last meeting an anomaly as in the eight previous meetings, at least one team has scored 100 points and I expect both to do it tonight. 10* Over (813) Los Angeles Clippers/(814) Memphis Grizzlies |
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02-25-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 194.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The Spurs are coming off a dismal offensive performance at Utah on Monday as they scored just 81 points on 40.5 percent shooting including going only 5-19 from long range. San Antonio has been held to 85 points or fewer on four other occasions this season and is has come back with much better efficiency in its next game, averaging 101 ppg. The Spurs have gone under the total in two straight games and six of their last seven which is keeping this number down lower than it should be. Portland meanwhile has stayed below the number in its last three games but two of those games were against Utah and Memphis, two of the seven slowest teams in the NBA averaging 93.6 and 96.6 possessions per game respectively. The offense will get a big boost with LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup after missing the last game. The over is 6-2 in the Spurs last eight games against teams with a winning record while the over is also 6-2 in the Blazers last eight games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (723) San Antonio Spurs/(724) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-25-15 | Miami Heat v. Orlando Magic UNDER 198.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
After opening the season by staying under the total in 32 of its first 50 games, Miami has played five straight games with the over coming in. The total tonight has been adjusted because of it as the Heat are seeing their biggest total in over a month, a span of 15 games. They put up 119 points last time out against the Sixers which is by far a season high and this was just the 15th times they have scored 100 or more points since early November. They followed that up with another 100-point performance only once while averaging a mere 85.5 ppg in those 14 games next time out. Orlando is coming off an over as well which coincidentally also came against the Sixers. That snapped a stretch of five straight unders with the offense going over 100 points only once and that took overtime to do so. The under is 12-4 in the Heat's last 16 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 11-5 in the Magic's last 16 games following a win. 10* Under (701) Miami Heat/(702) Orlando Magic |
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02-24-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons OVER 203.5 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Cleveland had gone over the total in five straight games prior to Sunday as it stayed below the number against the Knicks. Now the Cavaliers close out their four-game roadtrip in Detroit with another great opportunity for a high scoring game. The Cleveland offense is playing at a high level right now as it is averaging 108.6 ppg since suffering a six-game losing streak in mid-January, a span of 18 games. In those games, the Cavaliers failed to hit the century mark only four times but still managed 97, 98 and 99 points twice. The Pistons won't be considered to have the most efficient offense in the league but since scoring a mere 69 points against the Sixers to end January, they are averaging 103.2 ppg in February over nine games. They are 3-0-1 to the under over their last four games which is keeping this total lower than it should be. The over is 5-2 in the Pistons last seven home games against teams with a winning road record while the over is 5-1 in Cleveland's last six games overall. 10* Over (503) Cleveland Cavaliers/(504) Detroit Pistons |
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02-23-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Miami Heat UNDER 191.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Miami has gone over the total in four straight games which is certainly a rarity as the Heat had gone under the total in 32 of their first 50 games. It has been the mix of a poor defense and a potent offense over this recent stretch but keep in mind that Miami remains the slowest team in the NBA, averaging just 93 possessions per game so it takes hot shooting from either side to surpass the number. Philadelphia meanwhile has gone over the total in its two games since the break and now it is seeing its highest number of these three games overall. The Sixers are another team that has seen a majority of unders come in as they are 35-20 to the under with that 63.6 percent being the biggest percentage in the league. The numbers go up on both sides as Miami and Philadelphia are a combined 54-26 (67.5 percent) to the over when the total is 190 or higher. Additionally, the under is 21-7 in the Sixers last 28 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 18-7 in the Heat's last 25 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (701) Philadelphia 76ers/(702) Miami Heat |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 202.5 | Top | 115-119 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
We played the under in the Clippers last game before the All-Star break but we will go the opposite Thursday as we are seeing a good amount of value in the over. Los Angeles had gone over the total in three straight games prior to that and all of those were some big numbers. As a matter of fact, this is the lowest total the Clippers have seen in eight straight games. The Spurs went under the total in their final four games before the break as their defense really rose to the occasion. They will find the going a lot tougher here against a Los Angeles team averaging 107.1 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting at home. Last year, the over was 13-6-1 the first two days after the break after going 12-8 to the over two years ago and this has been a pretty common theme as the time off has helped the offenses. The over is 6-1 in the Spurs last seven games against teams with a winning record while the over is 6-1 in the Clippers last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (503) San Antonio Spurs/Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-11-15 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 213 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The Rockets are coming off a win last night in Phoenix, but more importantly, it was the third straight game that went over the total which provides us with some contrarian value for tonight. Houston has been a team that has gone over the total on the road in seven of its last nine games but two of those games were against Phoenix and the other against Golden St., the top fastest teams in the NBA with 101.2 and 102.5 possessions per game respectively. The Clippers are no where near that as they average 97.3 possessions per game which is 18th in the league and they are finally back home following a lengthy roadtrip of eight games covering 14 days. They too have gone over the total is three straight games following a 6-1 under run and at home. Los Angeles has stayed below the number in nine of its last 13 games. In those, the Clippers have had a total of 210 or higher seven times with six of those staying under. Additionally, the under is 11-5-1 in Clippers last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Under (723) Houston Rockets/(724) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Toronto Raptors OVER 210 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
We lost with the Clippers/Cavaliers over last night as a 42-point fourth quarter did us in not to mention the fact it took Los Angeles over three quarters to get its offense going. It has been a rough five-game stretch as the Clippers have averaged just 99.2 ppg on 44.6 percent shooting and the last two games have been big reasons for losing. They have shot just 44.4 percent against Brooklyn and Cleveland but they now get to face a Raptors defense that has allowed 106.2 ppg on 46.9 percent shooting the last five games. Toronto has stayed under the total in its last two games as the offense has really fallen off, averaging just 84 ppg on 38.2 percent shooting. Last night we mentioned it is a good angle to play the over when teams have a combined shooting percentage of over 90 percent and that is the case again for both teams as the Clippers are at 92.3 percent while the Raptors are at 91.7 percent. The Clippers have gone over the total in eight of 12 games when playing with no rest including five of six in the second of back-to-back road games while the over is 10-2 in the Raptors last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (807) Los Angeles Clippers/(808) Toronto Raptors |
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02-05-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 207 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
We have a great situation tonight in what has the potential to be a very high scoring game. We saw it in the first meeting this season between the Clippers and Cavaliers as 247 points scored in Los Angeles less than three weeks ago. The situation is even better this time around as both teams have been by under runs but the home and road splits dictate a lot of offense. The combined field goal percentage for the Clippers on the road is 93.1 percent while the combined field goal percentage for the Cavaliers at home is 93.9 percent and anytime you can get two teams over a combined 90 percent, it is great for points and even more so in this case. Los Angeles has stayed under in two straight games as well as five of six while Cleveland has stayed under the total in six straight games as the defense has really picked things up. The last time they allows 100 points was the game against the Clippers as they have played some weak offenses since then. Los Angeles is 6-2 to the over this season when playing with two days rest while Cleveland is 4-2 to the over this season when playing with two days rest. 10* Over (503) Los Angeles Clippers/(504) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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01-30-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 200 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The questionable status of Anthony Davis delayed this total and while he is a gametime decision, whether he goes or not is not a huge factor in the over/under. If he plays, he obviously helps the Pelicans offense but if he doesn't, it hurts the defense so it can be considered a wash. New Orleans had its four-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Denver on Wednesday and in the process, stayed under the total for a second straight game and eighth in its last nine contests. From a pace standpoint, the game against the Nuggets was not any slower than normal, it is just that the Pelicans could not buy many baskets as they shot just 39 percent from the floor including going only 3-15 from long range. The Clippers meanwhile have won six straight games with the last three staying under the total. The last game against Utah stayed well below no thanks to horrible long range shooting as the teams combined for 50 three-point shots with just 14 being made (28 percent). Both teams have been involved in some very high totals this season, especially the Clippers, and we are getting some decent value with this number tonight. This has been a high scoring series including the first meeting this season with 220 points being scored and I expect both teams to bounce back from their poor offensive efforts last time out. 10* Over (811) Los Angeles Clippers/(812) New Orleans Pelicans |
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01-28-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz OVER 199 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
The Clippers have won five straight games and are now six games behind Golden St. in the Pacific Division. While they look to have an easy matchup tonight, we are more concerned about the total as this is the lowest number that Los Angeles has seen in a while. Since November 28th, only two games have had a total of 200 or less and those were against Miami and Indiana and while both did stay under the total, they stayed under by a combined 5.5 points so even those were close to hitting the number. The Clippers are 11-6-1 to the over in their 18 road games which is a much higher percentage than their 16-11 to the under record at home. Additionally, the over is 5-1 in the Clippers last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Utah is the reason this number is so low. The Jazz are also on a two-game under streak and going back, 14 of their last 18 games have stayed below the total. This is where the value comes into play as the majority of those games during the low scoring streak have come against poor offensive teams and the last time Utah had a total of at least 200, it was seven games back against Golden St. and that number easily went over. The over is 4-1 in Utah's last five home games against teams with a winning road record. This is the fourth and final meeting this season and we have seen the total drop each time with this being the lowest of the four games. 10* Over (719) Los Angeles Clippers/(720) Utah Jazz |
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01-23-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 196 | Top | 91-86 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
We lost the Toronto over in its last game as a 32-point first quarter killed any chance of surpassing the total. The Raptors lost that game which was their third loss in four games with all five of those games staying below the total. The main reason has been the offense which has cooled off considerably, averaging just 92 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting. Those averages are way down from their season numbers and if there is an opponent that can jump start that offense, it is the Sixers. Philadelphia is allowing close to 103 ppg on the season so it should show very little resistance against the Raptors and Toronto is going to be gunning to get out of its offense struggles. The Sixers offense has been pretty bad of late as well as they have gone 19 straight games without scoring 100 points. Don't be surprised to see that streak get broken here as Toronto is allowing the fifth most points on the road in the NBA at 106.2 ppg. The Raptors have allowed at least 100 points in 13 of their 19 road games this season and while the defense has been better the last two games, it has been a pace issue as Memphis and Milwaukee has taken just 74 and 76 shots respectively. The Sixers average 81 shots per game and they are the sixth fasted team in the NBA with 99.9 possessions per game. These teams played just over a week ago with a closing total of 202.5 which shows how much value we are getting in this total on Friday. 10* Over (801) Toronto Raptors/(802) Philadelphia 76ers |
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01-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 200.5 | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
We lost with the Toronto over on Monday as a 33-point third quarter did us in. Guard DeMar DeRozan went over 20 points in each of his first three games back from a groin injury but was held scoreless on 0-of-9 shooting in 26 minutes by the Bucks so don't expect to see that again We are playing the over for much of the same reasons as Toronto has lost seven of its last 10 and the reason has been defense. The Raptors have allowed an average of 110.7 ppg in those seven losses and while they allowed just 84, 96 and 89 points in the wins, those were against the Sixers, Celtics and Bucks. The defense has been bad all season as they have allowed 46.3 percent shooting, sixth worst in the league and they are allowing 106.9 ppg on the road, which is third highest trailing only Lakers and Timberwolves. While Toronto has gone under in four straight games, Memphis went under in its last game against Dallas after a run of five straight games going over the total. The Grizzlies play a pretty solid defense but they are actually better on the road than at home while the offense is really the catalyst. They average 105.1 ppg at home which is seventh highest in the NBA which plays right into the hands of the porous Toronto defense The over is 19-8 in the Grizzlies last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the over is 13-5 in the Raptors road games this season. 10* Over (711) Toronto Raptors/(712) Memphis Grizzlies |
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01-19-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 198.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Milwaukee returns home from its game in London against the Knicks which was an easy winner and it also resulted in an easy under, the 11th straight game that has stayed under the total for the Bucks. Bad offense, strong defense or a combination of both? It has been a mix as Milwaukee has gone over 100 points only twice but has scored 95 or more points eight times so it hasn't been no where near shutdown. You will see that the Bucks have allowed 79, 95, 84 and 77 points their last four games but those three lowest point totals given up were against the three worst teams in the NBA and three pretty putrid offenses. Toronto has lost two straight games and seven of its last nine and the reason has been defense. The Raptors have allowed an average of 110.7 ppg in those seven losses and while they allowed just 84 and 96 points in the wins, those were against the lowly Sixers and Celtics. The defense has been bad all season as they have allowed 46.3 percent shooting, fifth worst in the league and they are allowing 108 ppg on the road, which is third highest trailing only Lakers and Timberwolves. Yet, Toronto has gone under in its last three games so we are getting exceptional contrarian value with a team that is 13-4 to the over in its 17 road games and is 17-5 to the over its last 22 games playing with no rest. 10* Over (719) Toronto Raptors/(720) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-18-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Orlando Magic UNDER 210.5 | Top | 127-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is coming off one of its highest scoring games of the season as it took care of Golden St. 127-115 in a game that featured two very potent offenses. At least for the Thunder, that is the case since the return of Westbrook and Durant. Now they will be facing the fourth lowest scoring team in the NBA and the seventh slowest team as far as pace as Orlando is averaging just 94.9 ppg while their games are averaging only 96.5 possessions per game. While the Orlando defense has struggled the three games, overall it is not a bad unit that allows 100.1 ppg which is right in the middle of the pack. The Magic have gone over the total in four straight games which has been a mix of offense and defense but now they are getting some great value. They have gone under in six of their last nine games with a total of 200 or higher and tonight presents the biggest over/under they have seen all season. A lot of that has to do with Oklahoma City, which has gone over in two straight against two of the fastest teams in the league. The Thunder have had six games with a total of 210 or higher, three of those against Golden St. and the other three against teams ranked 3rd, 5th and 8th in pace. The under is 11-1 in the Thunder's last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game while the under is 10-3 in the Magic's last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* Under (803) Oklahoma City Thunder/(804) Orlando Magic |
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01-17-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons OVER 194 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
We had the Sixers over last night and while their offense improved from previous games as expected, it was the New Orleans offense that let us down as the Pelicans managed to shoot just 38.7 percent from the floor including 23.5 percent from long range. And it isn't because the Sixers defense is any good because it isn't and we will see that tonight. Playing with no rest will hurt the defense as the Sixers have allowed 102.3 ppg in their previous nine games playing with no rest, six of those going over the total. Additionally, Philadelphia has allowed fewer than 90 points seven other times and has allowed an average of 106 ppg in the next game. Detroit is coming off a dramatic win last night against the Pacers as it bounced back from a loss against New Orleans on Wednesday. It was the second straight under for the Pistons but the offense still managed a good game and I expect it to be even better tonight. Since the resurgence of this team, the offense has been outstanding by averaging 103.6 ppg in 18 games compared to 92.8 ppg in its first 22 games. The over is 6-1 in the Sixers last seven games against teams with a losing record while the over is 5-1 in the Pistons last six games against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (503) Philadelphia 76ers/(504) Detroit Pistons |
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01-16-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Orlando Magic UNDER 198 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
Here we have two teams that have stayed under the total in the majority of their games on the season but that has not been the case recently. I think we come back to the norm on Friday. Orlando has won two straight games thanks to an offense that has put up 121 and 120 points but that is more of an anomaly than the norm. the Magic eclipsed 100 points in two straight games only one other time the entire season and they followed that up with an 86-point effort next time out. Memphis has also picked the offense during its two-game winning streak, scoring 122 and 103 points the last two games but 21 points came in overtime in the former, which would have stayed under had overtime not taken place. Both teams shoot the ball above average but these are two of the slower teams in the NBA as Memphis averages 97.2 possessions in its games while Orlando averages 96.4 possessions in its games, good for 21st and 24th in the NBA respectively. The under is 4-1-1 in the Grizzlies last six games against teams with a losing record while the under is 8-2 in the Magic's last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (807) Memphis Grizzlies/(808) Orlando Magic |
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01-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 204 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This isn't the most exciting matchup to watch with Cleveland on a six-game losing streak and the Lakers having dropped two straight, four of five and sitting 15 games under .500 for the season. But what it does do is give us a fantastic spot to cash a total as both teams have been riding significant under streaks in which case we should see a high scoring game going tonight. The Cavaliers had posted seven straight unders with LeBron James out of the lineup as the offense could do nothing, averaging just 89.1 ppg over those seven games. James returned against Phoenix and while the offense put up 100 points, the game still went under because the total was inflated at 212.5 but now it has come down for tonight. As for the Lakers, they have stayed under the total in their last six games including putting up a mere 153 points in their last game against Miami but that was just a horrible shooting night as they shot 31.5 percent including 17.4 percent from long range with the Heat not doing much better. Cleveland is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after three or more consecutive unders while Los Angeles is 23-5 to the over in its last 28 home games after scoring 80 points or less. 10* Over (505) Cleveland Cavaliers/(506) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-10-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls OVER 194 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off a win last night against Minnesota which was its second straight victory but more importantly, it was the Bucks ninth straight game that stayed under the total. That sets up a great opportunity tonight for a high scoring game as we are getting value with the total based on the recent under run as well as the fact this is Milwaukee's fourth game in five nights with there being travel between every game. A busy schedule like that tends to affect the defense more than anything else and while the Bucks have allowed point totals of 82, 77 and 84 points, those games were against New York, Philadelphia and Minnesota, the three worst teams in the NBA and three of the 10 lowest scoring teams in the league. Chicago is also coming off an under last night in Washington which was its second straight game to stay below the total. The offense has been the reason as the Bulls managed only 77 and 86 points in those games but they catch Milwaukee at the perfect time. The Bucks are 22-8 to the over in their last 30 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points while Chicago is 13-5 to the over in home games this season. 10* Over (511) Milwaukee Bucks/(512) Chicago Bulls |
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01-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 200.5 | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Charlotte won its third consecutive game last night and while doing so, also went over for the third straight game. Those totals were all less than what the Hornets are seeing tonight and all of that is due to the opposition but we are still presented with some awesome value. While the over is 16-5 in Charlotte's 21 games where the total is less than 195, the under is 11-5 when the total is 195 or greater including 5-2 at 200 or higher. Additionally, Charlotte is 21-10 to the under after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while the under is 5-2 in the Hornets last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Toronto has gone over the total in two straight games and on the season, the over is 21-13 however 13 of those overs came on the road as the Raptors defense stiffens up considerable at home where they allow 95.4 ppg compared to 108 ppg on the road. Toronto is 19-7 to the under in its last 26 home games after allowing 110 points or more two straight games while the under is 5-2 in the Raptors last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days. As far as pace goes, both are slower than average as Toronto is 16th with 97.9 possessions per game while Charlotte is 20th with 97.3 possessions per game. 10* Under (501) Charlotte Hornets/(502) Toronto Raptors |
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01-07-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 195 | Top | 97-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off another low scoring game last night as it has now gone under the total in seven straight games. Tonight presents a great opportunity to break that streak as this one sets up good for a high scoring affair. The Bucks offense has been stuck in neutral the last four games, scoring no more than 96 points but now they face a Sixers defense that is allowing 104 ppg and has given up at least 112 points in four of their last six games. They are coming off a solid defensive effort last time out against the Cavaliers as they allowed just 92 points but putting together back-to-back strong efforts on defense has been a rarity. Philadelphia is coming off an under in that game against Cleveland but it has gone 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games following a game that went under the total. The Sixers offense has not reached 100 points since December 13th but that could change here as Milwaukee is allowing 99.5 ppg on the road and the over is 10-4 in the Bucks last 14 road games against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Sixers last six home games against teams with a winning road record. As far as pace goes, the Sixers and Bucks are averaging 100.7 and 98.8 possessions per game respectively, 4th and 11th most in the league. 10* Over (705) Milwaukee Bucks/(706) Philadelphia 76ers |
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01-06-15 | Detroit Pistons v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198.5 | Top | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Detroit has won five straight games, all being covers as well as the offense has hit its stride, averaging 108.4 ppg and the defense is not far behind as it has improved as well, allowing just 90.2 ppg. Facing a majority of bad teams will do that however and while I expect the offense to keep going, the defense will be in for a tough time on Tuesday. Because of the stifling defense of late, the Pistons have stayed under the total in their last four games. The Spurs meanwhile have stayed under the total in three straight games as the defense has been playing well while the offense has been below its season averages leading up to it. This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Tony Parker and while he likely will not go, the possibility is only a added benefit. As mentioned, Detroit has not played many good teams during its run and it is 8-1 to the over in its last nine games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile the Spurs have played three solid teams during their under run and going back, they are 10-1 to the over in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-2 in the Spurs last 12 home games. 10* Over (503) Detroit Pistons/(504) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 218 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
We are definitely going against the grain in this one as everyone sees a trackmeet between Oklahoma City and Golden St. but the value here is too hard to pass up going the other way. These teams met just over two weeks ago and while that game in Golden St. surpassed the total, it would not have if tonight's number was in place as the over/under has gone from 211.5 to 218 in a span of 17 days, which is too big of an adjustment. A lot of that is due to recent games as Oklahoma Coty has gone over in three straight and five of six while Golden St. has gone over in two straight and five of seven. The Warriors falls into a great totals spot as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving a team that is averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg, after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games. This situation is 31-9 (77.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 21-7 in Oklahoma City's last 28 games playing on two days rest. 10* Under (721) Oklahoma City Thunder/(722) Golden St. Warriors |
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01-03-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 206 | Top | 91-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
After winning the first two games of this current roadtrip against Orlando and Miami, the Sixers have lost the last four games all by at least 16 points. The defense has been to blame as they have allowed 112, 114 and 126 points in three of those losses and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. The Clippers have won three of their last four games including two straight on this current homestand and all four of these games have stayed under the total. The defense has played well the last two games but this is the type of game the Clippers may not put a full effort into and while they are an average pace team, the Sixers are the third fastest by averaging 101 possessions per game. So it would not be surprising to see Los Angeles go along with that. The last meeting here a season ago had a total of 219.5 so we are seeing a big difference this time around. The Clippers are 8-0 to the over in their last eight games after a game forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers while the over is 7-1 in the Sixers last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (515) Philadelphia 76ers/(516) Los Angeles Clippers |
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01-01-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 209 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The possibility of a DeMarcus Cousins suspension caused this line to come out late but whether or not he plays, this game should turn into a trackmeet. Sacramento has lost two straight games and has allowed at least 101 points in eight straight games but is coming off a poor offensive effort yesterday against Boston which will reverse out here. Sacramento managed just 36.8 percent shooting including going 2-15 from long range against a bad Celtics defense but now it faces an even worse stop unit. Minnesota has allowed at least 100 points in nine straight games, all of which have been losses but the last three have stayed under the total which helps add value today. Both offenses should rise to the occasion today against these poor defenses that allow 108.7 ppg and 104.1 ppg. From a pace standpoint, both teams are fast as they are two of just nine teams in the NBA that average 99 or more possessions per game. The over is 14-6 in the Kings last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the over is 13-6 in the Timberwolves last 19 games playing on one day rest. 10* Over (503) Sacramento Kings/(504) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-29-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
We are catching another great totals situation tonight as we have two teams on recent runs that we will go against based on the contrarian factor along with over/under value. Sacramento hits the road to open a four-game east coast roadtrip starting in Brooklyn tonight and the Kings are riding a five-game over streak. However, the last game went into overtime while the majority of those games came against some of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they will face one of the slower teams in the league as the Nets are averaging 96.8 possessions per game, the eighth fewest. Brooklyn meanwhile has gone over in two straight games, one of those against the Celtics which are tied for the most possessions in the league and the other against Indiana which was able to shoot over 51 percent from the floor. The under is 9-1 in the Nets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and I certainly expect a better defensive effort after allowing 86 and 87 shots the last two games. We also have a great league wide totals situation in play as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive overs. This situation is 60-25 (70.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (707) Sacramento Kings/(708) Brooklyn Nets |
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12-28-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets OVER 210 | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
While injuries are marring to majority of the Sunday NBA card, there are no recent injury issues in this game and we are making a play similar to the one last night in Chicago. Toronto is coming off a win last night in Los Angeles against the Clippers in a game that stayed under the total albeit by not much. Prior to that, the Raptors had gone over the total in three straight games and while we are dealing with a high number tonight, it is lower than last night against a team that is much faster paces. The Clippers average 161.9 shot attempts per game while the Nuggets are averaging 171.3 shot attempts per game and those 10 extra shots are huge especially with a lower total. Denver has gone under in five straight games because the offense has sputtered the majority of the time but we could very well see a big effort tonight against a Raptors team that is playing with no rest and has gone 5-2 to the over in previous seven games playing with no rest. Additionally, Toronto is 10-3 to the over on the road this season and 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 103 or more ppg. 10* Over (807) Toronto Raptors/(808) Denver Nuggets |
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12-27-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Chicago Bulls OVER 201.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
New Orleans is coming off a big win over San Antonio last night as the defense really stepped up by allowing just 90 points but still allowed the Spurs to shoot over 49 percent from the floor. After going over the total in five straight games, New Orleans has gone under in its last five games and I expect that to reverse out tonight. In their previous seven games playing with no rest, the Pelicans have gone under the total only two times. New Orleans is one of the faster tempo teams in the league as it averages 85.4 shots per game which is eighth highest and the Bulls allow 87 shots per game which is second moist in the league and it is 10-2 to the over against up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more spg this season. Chicago has gone under the total in its last two games but the last game was set at 208 and on the season, the Bulls are 5-0 to the over when the total is set between 200 and 205. New Orleans is 15-10 to the over this season when the total is 195 or higher and we should see the scoreboard lighting up tonight. 10* Over (509) New Orleans Pelicans/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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12-25-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
While this game looks like another shootout possibility, the under is the play here as we are getting an extremely favorable number. Golden St. got its revenge from last season's playoff loss by winning 121-104 last month and while that game went over, the closing total was 211 which is seven points less than what we have here, The Warriors have gone over in each of their last three games but this number is higher than any of those while the Clippers have gone over in two straight games and again, the number is higher here. All of this presents great contrarian value and it needs to be noted that this is the highest total either team has seen all season. We play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving teams after scoring 100 points or more two straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 69-35 (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 19-7 to the under after allowing 110 points or more while going 19-9 to the under after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 5-1 in the Clippers last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (509) Golden St. Warriors/(510) Los Angeles Clippers |
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12-17-14 | Houston Rockets v. Denver Nuggets OVER 206 | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
These teams just met on Saturday with Houston prevailing at home 108-96, staying under the total by just a bucket. With the change in venue, I expect this one to fly over tonight. That was the third under in the last four games for the Rockets with the lone over coming on the road at Sacramento and the location of the game makes a difference for this team. Houston averages 188.7 ppg in its home games but that climbs to 201.6 ppg in road games and while that is still lower than this total, the difference of 12.9 ppg is huge and even more so when taking into account the opponent. Denver averages about the same both home and away as it is right at 207 ppg. The Nuggets have gone under the total in three straight games as well as three straight at home but a lot of that has to do with the pace of the game. As far as possessions per game, Denver has 100.3 and Houston has 99, good for sixth and eight most in the league respectively. Both teams fall into a solid contrarian over situation as we play the over involving teams shooting between 41.5 and 43.5 percent and that are between +/-3 rpg in margin. This situation is 72-34 (67.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (717) Houston Rockets/(718) Denver Nuggets |
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12-16-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Washington Wizards OVER 201.5 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
We are getting a good number here based on recent games and this should turn into a high scoring affair. Minnesota has gone under the total in four straight games but all of those were at home where the offense was unable to generate much and the defense actually played rather well. The road defense is a different story as the Timberwolves are allowing a whopping 115.6 ppg including an incredible 124.3 ppg over their last six games. This is exactly what the Washington offense needs as it has been hit or miss and is coming off a 93-point effort against Utah last time out. Going back to early November, the Wizards have scored fewer than 100 points seven previous times and have followed that up with 100 or more points six times. Washington is averaging 112.6 ppg over its last five home games and its 48.2 percent overall shooting percentage at home is seventh best in the NBA. The Wizards are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA but the Timberwolves will push the ball as they are averaging 85.2 shots per game which is eighth most in the NBA and that number drops just slightly on the road. Minnesota is 14-3 to the over in its last 17 road games after two or more consecutive unders and 15-2 to the over in its last 17 road games against teams shooting 46 percent on the season or better. Washington is 14-6 to the over in its last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (501) Minnesota Timberwolves/(502) Washington Wizards |
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12-09-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 203.5 | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is the first meeting this season between two of the top teams in the Western Conference and while everything points to the over, the value is clearly the other way. Dallas has gone over the total in five straight games and seven of its last eight while Memphis has gone over in two of its last three with the last missing by just a bucket. This is a rarity however for the Grizzlies to see a total this high and the only time they had one above 200, it stayed under rather easily. Obviously this number is lower than what Dallas has seen a lot of the time but it is still very high against a slower team. Both teams have excellent situations on their side as we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after five or more consecutive overs and averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Second, we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 79-42 (65.3 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (705) Dallas Mavericks/(706) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-05-14 | Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 195.5 | Top | 85-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Miami and Milwaukee have been involved in some high scoring games of late and the defense can be to blame but I think we see better efforts from both teams on that side of the ball Friday night. Milwaukee has gone over the total in four straight games namely because of the defense that has allowed 107, 111 and 117 points over their last three games. It was a pace issue for the most part as Milwaukee, which allows an average of just 82 attempts per game, allowed 87 and 92 in two of those games. Don't expect that tonight as Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA as it shoots a league low 73.2 shots per games and allows a league low 76.8 attempts per game. The Heat have gone over in two straight, catching two very hot shooting teams while allowing just 72 and 74 shots. All of this leads to a great situation as well as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive overs. This situation is 107-57 (65.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 9-1 in the Heats last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 6-2-1 in the Bucks last nine home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (819) Miami Heat/(820) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-02-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks OVER 189 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Knicks are on a four-game losing streak as the early season has been a disaster as the offense has had a tough time scoring points. New York is near the bottom of the league in scoring at 93.4 ppg but the shooting itself has not been that bad as the Knicks are middle of the pack in shooting percentage and are near the top in three-point shooting. They are coming off games of scoring 78 and 79 points which are their two lowest outputs of the season but I expect New York's offense to come to life tonight. Brooklyn has gone under the total in four straight games and seven of its last eight but looking at the closing numbers shows that we are getting great value here with a total that is lower than it normally would be. These teams played last month and the total was three points higher and that one went over. The Nets have a similar offense as the Knicks and their defense has not been up to par this season as they are allowing over 100 ppg on season and over 101 ppg on the road. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last four games following a double-digit loss at home while the over is 20-7-1 in the Knicks last 28 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Over (507) Brooklyn Nets/(508) New York Knicks |
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11-30-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 213 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Portland is coming off a loss at home against Memphis on Friday as the defense allowed 112 points and after that defeat, I expect the defense to lock down on Sunday. It was the second straight game that the Blazers have gone over and the last time they allowed this many points, 113 against Denver, they followed it up by allowing just 87 points in their next game. Minnesota is coming off a high scoring game last time out and it has gone over in seven of its last eight games and now we are presented with some good value on the total against one of the better defense in the league. Portland is 26-12 to the under in its last 38 home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and it falls into a situation where we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. This situation is 78-42 (65 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (813) Minnesota Timberwolves/(814) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-24-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 201 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Portland has won seven straight games and while the offense was good and the defense was bad during the first three games of the streak, it has been a complete flip-flop over the last four games which has seen the under come in all four times. That is giving us some value tonight in a lower that average total. This is the third time Portland has played with no rest and the first two times, the games soared over the total with scores of 226 and 243. Additionally, Portland is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after four or more consecutive wins. The winless Sixers will have their hands full here no doubt but catching the Blazers with no rest is a big edge for the offense that has been horrendous and they should be able to break through. Philadelphia averages over 14 more ppg at home than it does n the road and going back, the Sixers are 24-10 to the over in their last 34 home games coming off a road loss. 10* Over (703) Portland Trailblazers/(704) Philadelphia 76ers |
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11-18-14 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 189.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Knicks snapped their seven-game losing streak with a victory over Denver on Sunday. The offense finally showed signs of life as they scored 109 points on 53.9 percent shooting, both of which were season highs and the thinking here is that they can continue to progress that offense over the next few games as the schedule will allow it to do so because of the lack of strength to it. Even though New York had its best offensive performance of the season, the game against Denver still stayed under the number because the defense allowed just 93 points but that is something we should not get used to. While the Knicks stayed under the total last time out, Milwaukee has stayed under the total over its last seven games and the numbers have been coming down to coincide with that. The Bucks are allowing the third fewest amount of points in the NBA but we need to put an asterisk by that. Milwaukee has allowed 81 points or fewer three times this season but those games were misleading as they came against Philadelphia, Oklahoma City and Indiana, three teams completely disjointed because of injuries and/or youth. The offense has struggled scoring points which has helped the under streak and it is simply a case of some poor shooting. Both New York and Milwaukee are in the middle of the pack in shots so the low scoring games would come from poor shooting and not pace. Opposite will collide on each side and I think that the offenses will be able to find success against both opposing defenses. 10* Over (703) New York Knicks/(704) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-13-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 195 | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Here we have a battle of two first place teams in their respective divisions and I am expecting a defensive battle despite recent results. The Bulls are known for their strong defense which has been hit or miss this season but they are still in the top half of the league in points allowed and are fifth in shooting percentage allowed. Chicago has gone over the total in three straight games so as of Thursday morning, they are seeing their highest over/under of the young season. The Bulls will be facing a Toronto offense that leads the NBA in scoring but one look at the opposition will tell you why that is the case as the Raptors have played the 25th ranked schedule in the league. Granted, that has also helped their defensive numbers but the Bulls are no offensive juggernaut and as far as pace goes, their 79.5 shot attempts per game are the seventh fewest in the NBA. There is not a lot different from last year to this year with these teams yet in four meetings last season, the highest closing total was 187.5 and the points scored in the four meetings was 176, 176, 164 and 186 so we are getting a great number to work with tonight. Chicago is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game while Toronto is 5-1 to the under in its last six games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. 10* Under (501) Chicago Bulls/(502) Toronto Raptors |
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11-06-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets OVER 199.5 | Top | 81-98 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Through eight games combined between these two teams, the under has come in all eight times which sets up a great opportunity tonight for a higher scoring game and we are getting a good number to play with. San Antonio played last night and blew a 17-point lead but was able to hang on in a low scoring game that finished with just 86 points. Prior to that, the Spurs and Suns finished with only 83 points so I expect things to change here. As for Houston, the offense has been able to score in bunches as it has gone over 100 points in all five of its games but it has been the defense that has kept the under run going as the Rockets have allowed no more than 93 points through five games. While the Spurs offense has been quiet thus far, remember that they were fourth in the NBA last season in scoring with 103 ppg. Houston meanwhile is right around its average from a season ago so we should see both offenses find success tonight. The first meeting last season went over the total and while the final three meetings all stayed under, two of those would have gone over if using tonight's number as those final three games has over/under totals of 212.5, 209 and 211.5. The over is 12-3-1 in the Rockets last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record while the over is 18-7 in the Spurs last 25 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 10* Over (701) San Antonio Spurs/(702) Houston Rockets |
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11-04-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 112-106 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
These teams played six days ago and while they went over the total then, the value has shifted quite a bit to the other side. And a lot of that is due to what has taken place to start the season. The Lakers are off to a 0-4 start with all of those games going above the total. The noteworthy thing is that each game has seen a higher total going forward as it has gone from 207 to 208 to 210 to 210.5 and now it has gone all the way up to 215 in some spots which is a huge adjustment. On the other side, Phoenix has gone over in two of its first three games including last time out at Utah where it lost by 27 points. This too is the highest total that the Suns have seen this season as the previous high has been 208. The Lakers defense has been the main culprit in their slow start to the season and they are aware that they need to buckle down. Los Angeles is allowing a league-high 118.0 ppg but that number is not high because of pace, which is an important factor in totals. The Lakers are allowing an average of 77.3 shot attempts per game which is fifth lowest in the league so they have been on the wrong side of some hot shooting teams, especially from long range where opposing teams are averaging a league-high 12.8 three-point makes per game. On the other side, Suns games are seeing 169.3 shots per game from both sides which is the fifth lowest in the league. Going back to last season, the under is 8-2-2 in the Suns last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 10* Under (715) Phoenix Suns/(716) Los Angeles Lakers |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
We had the over here in Game Five and things were looking very good until a 38-point fourth quarter did us in and it resulted in either a push or a loss depending on the number. We are coming right back with it again here tonight. The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all five games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last four games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last four games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. Also mentioned on Thursday, this has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.7 percent to 41.5 percent and we have yet to see a complete offensive games from both sides which is very surprising due to the quality of these teams. While we are on a run of unders in this series, San Antonio is 6-1 to the under in its last seven games while Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games so we are going against even bigger streaks and I definitely expect that to change tonight. 10* Over (523) San Antonio Spurs/(524) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 206 | Top | 89-117 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all three games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last three games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last three games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. We have seen the total steadily decline since Game Two as it has gone from 209.5 to 208 to 207.5 to 206 for tonight and dropping three and a half points in a few games is a huge swing. This has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.6 percent to 41.1 percent. This could very well be the game that both teams play a complete game on offense and even of the Thunder can improve slightly from their first two games in San Antonio which won't be hard to do, this one goes over easily. The over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the over is 12-3 in the Spurs last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (519) Oklahoma City Thunder/(520) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
We cashed both the Under in Game Two and the Over in Game Three in this series and we go back to the totals for Game Five as we are again catching some solid value. The last two games of this series have surpassed the number and because of that, the number is now a bucket higher than it was in those previous two games. Additionally, the total is the highest it has been this series (tied with Game Two) that went under the total by 14.5 points. With Indiana's playoff lives on the line tonight, I expect its defense to come up huge as that is the trademark that has gotten them to where they are. The Pacers have allowed Miami to shoot 50.7 percent from the floor during the first four games of this series so now it is time to buckle down to stay alive. The Pacers are now on their first three-game playoff losing streak since losing Games Four, Five and Six against the Heat in the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals and while it is going to be difficult to come all the way back even with a win here, it cannot do so by getting into a shootout with Miami so possessions will play a big role here as well. Last year in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was facing a similar spot as home in an elimination game and buckled down and won with the game finishing with just 168 points scored. I see this game to play out a similar way. The Under is 4-0 in the Pacers last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (517) Miami Heat/(518) Indiana Pacers |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat OVER 183 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
We have seen this total go from one extreme to the other as Miami and Indiana combined for 203 points in Game One and then dropped to 170 points in Game Two. The posted totals have reflected the points scored as they have moved each game according to what happened in the prior game and we are seeing it again here albeit ever so slightly. The defenses were not on the floor in the first game but both stepped up last time out or did they? Miami shot 50.7 percent from the floor despite the low point total and it is hitting slightly over 51 percent through the first two games and a return home should keep that going. Four the Heat's last five home games have surpassed the total and while Indiana has played under mostly on the road of late, the Over is 10-4-1 in the Pacers last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The extended time off also helps the cause as Indiana is 4-0 to the over in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the over is 18-7-1 in Miami's last 26 games playing with three or more days rest. 10* Over (509) Indiana Pacers/(510) Miami Heat |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 77-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Similar to the Miami/Indiana game last night, we are seeing a jump in this total due to the results from Game One. In this case, the Thunder and Spurs combined for 227 points which went over the total by close to 20 points and now the over/under has gone from a 208.5 closing in Game One to as high as 212 in some places on Wednesday for Game Two. We are going the value route once again and while neither of these teams are on big over runs which would increase the contrarian values, the defenses are not getting the respect they deserve here. While both offenses are very potent, the defenses are overshadowed as the Thunder are allowing 43.7 percent shooting and the Spurs are allowing 44.3 percent shooting and combined they allow just over 198 ppg. The big factor tonight will be the Oklahoma City defense as it was damaged the most in the opener by allowing 57.5 percent shooting no thanks to giving up 66 points in the paint. On the other side, the Spurs have to shore up as well as they allowed 59 first half points. Kevin Durant has surpassed his scoring average in just one of five meetings this season, while Russell Westbrook shot below 50 percent for the 23rd time in 28 career matchups. The Under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Under is 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) San Antonio Spurs |