Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-18-12 | San Francisco 49ers +3 v. HOUSTON | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -100 | 59 h 14 m | Show |
Both San Francisco and Houston are coming off dominating wins in their first preseason games as both outgained their opponents by over 200 total yards. The 49ers now head out on the road and while many would think that would be a disadvantage, in this case it is not. San Francisco came within a win of going to the Super Bowl last season and with high expectations again, the 49ers will be out to prove it was no fluke. Facing a tough opponent in their first road game is a crucial test.
The Texans easily took care of Carolina as they outgained the Panthers by 238 yards in their 13-point victory. They do have an edge with this being their first home preseason game but they will be at a disadvantage here. The offense moved the ball very well between the 20?s but they struggled inside the redzone and ultimately had to settle for four field goals. That is a major concern and even though the backups are partly to blame, both turnovers came from the starters. Houston won't have the luxury of facing a soft defense this week as San Francisco was one of the best in the league last season and while it played well against Minnesota last week, it wasn't good enough. The Vikings managed only six points from their first-team offense, yet that was six points too many, according to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. The second-team defense appeared to have every thing in order, as Minnesota failed to put any points on the board. Expect another all-out effort from all players again this week. The quarterback rotation is strong with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick leading the way and a strong rotation is big in the preseason. Scott Tolzien's consistent play all throughout the third quarter and into the fourth quarter was very impressive and it looks at though the third string job is now his to lose. San Francisco falls into a solid situation where we play on road teams after allowing nine points or less last game against an opponent after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1993. 10* (423) San Francisco 49ers |
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08-16-12 | CINCINNATI v. Atlanta Falcons -4 | Top | 24-19 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
The Falcons are coming off a loss in their preseason opener at home against the Ravens as they blew a 14-0 lead and ended up losing by two touchdowns. While it is still only preseason, this game will have some added meaning for Atlanta. First off, it will want to make up for that horrible effort in front of the home crowd and that gets added to by the fact that this is their final preseason home game as the final two games played during the exhibition season take place on the road.
The Bengals meanwhile are coming off a home win against the Jets as the defense was solid, allowing only six points total. The Cincinnati defense was very solid last season so there is not a lot of work that needs to be done which can help the Atlanta offense. The Falcons were able to move the ball and score quickly against a tough Baltimore defense and while the challenge will be there again, the depth of the offensive line was one of the best outcomes from that first game. The Falcons defense has something to prove after allowing 31 points against Baltimore in the opening game and we are expected to see much more of the first string defense here. Atlanta head coach Mike Smith said that his first string defense will play into the second quarter and that defense actually looked pretty good against the Ravens. It was the backups that struggled as depth was an issue. The first string defense showed various looks and proved to be able to adapt to difference offensive schemes. Atlanta has been outstanding in these preseason spots as it is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 preseason games following a loss by 14 or more points while going 18-4 ATS in its last 22 preseason games after a -2 or worse turnovers margin including a 9-1 ATS mark after a -3 or worse turnover margin. Cincinnati was able to win and cover against the Jets with a minimal offensive attack and even with that it is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 preseason games when it gains four or less total yards per play. 10* (402) Atlanta Falcons |
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08-11-12 | TENNESSEE +3 v. SEATTLE | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
Seattle is a three-point favorite pretty much across the board which is a typical line for a preseason game so as far as line value, it is a wash. Looking at other intangibles however give a significant edge to Tennessee in this matchup. If last year was any indication, winning needs to start early for the Titans who put together a 9-7 season that pretty much came out of nowhere. It was the first year under head coach Mike Munchak and going 3-1 in the preseason helped fuel their impressive season.
The biggest factor in this matchup is quarterback rotations. Tennessee has a battle between Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker for the starting job and both come in with solid experience. Hasselbeck started all 16 games last season and he is a veteran in this league so he won't miss a beat. Locker meanwhile played in just five games but he was very efficient, posting a solid quarterback rating when he was in. He knows the system and that is a big deal in these preseason games. On the other side, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll announced that newcomer quarterback Matt Flynn will start the preseason opener and likely play the entire first half. Rookie Russell Wilson will play the second half against the Titans, leaving incumbent quarterback Tarvaris Jackson on the sideline. Carroll says coaches know what they're getting from Jackson after he started 14 games last season and want to see the two newcomers in game action. This rotation will put the Seahawks at a disadvantage. The Titans plan on opening up the offense more this season and for our purposes here, that means more opportunities to move the ball against the Seahawks which provides more scoring chances. The success of the Titans in the preseason goes back to then head coach Jeff Fisher and he wanted to parlay that success over into the regular season and it was very successful. Tennessee is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 preseason games as a road underdog and with plenty of edges here, another outright win is in our grasp. 10* (277) Tennessee Titans |
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08-09-12 | PITTSBURGH v. PHILADELPHIA +2 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show |
The situation in Philadelphia is a horrible one for head coach Andy Reid as his 29-year old son Garrett was found dead at the team's preseason facilities. He had drug problems and while the cause of death is unknown, it was devastating news for the team. The line moved from the Eagles being favored by a point and a half to now being underdogs by a point and a half and this was certainly the main reason. While Andy Reid will not be there Thursday, you can guarantee the players will want to win this one for Garrett.
On top of that, the Eagles had extremely high expectations last year and they went south as soon as the season started and could never recover. Philadelphia failed to make the preseason after being a preseason favorite to get there and while the past is the past, that will actually provide some fire under the Eagles as they want to come out of the gates and win right away and that means preseason as well. There is a different attitude in place and it should show right from the start. "I knew that the timing might not match up as quickly as everyone wanted it to," cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha said after practice last week. "Because you would hear, 'Oh, they're going to be this, going to be that,' and then you'd come out in practice and you could see us blowing plays. Yes, we could be there, but we weren't there yet. That's what I was feeling in training camp. Right now in training camp, it feels completely different." That is the stuff you want to hear when backing a team in the preseason. The Steelers will be working on a few new things during the preseason and the main thing in on the offense where they will be going to a big no-huddle attack under new offense coordinator Todd Haley. This will take time to get put into place and with the way the injuries have been plaguing the Steelers over the years, health will be their number one priority on top of getting the new systems in place. It will be an emotional night in Philadelphia and one that they walk away from with a big emotional victory. 10* (256) Philadelphia Eagles |
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08-05-12 | ARIZONA +3 v. NEW ORLEANS | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -120 | 101 h 22 m | Show |
The NFL preseason opens with the Hall of Fame game between Arizona and New Orleans and we already have a line value situation. In the preseason, home teams are favored by a field goal well over half of the time and while the home is favored here by a field goal, the Saints are not the true home teams as this game is in Canton, Ohio so before the season has even started, New Orleans is already overvalued. In any other season, it would be bad enough but this is even worse.
The whole offseason with the Saints was a disaster with the bounty program that was the big news in the league. Gone are head coach Sean Payton as well as other key personnel that could this Super Bowl contender into a complete nothing. Not only is Payton gone for the season but there is a new defensive coordinator in town as Steve Spagnuolo takes over the stop unit. The potential is there but it is a whole new system to learn and that is going to show starting in this first exhibition game. The Cardinals meanwhile will be trying to get back to their winning ways following a disappointing 8-8 season a year ago. The good news is that Arizona brought a lot of momentum into the new year as it went 7-2 over its last nine games and it will look to keep that winning going even if it is just preseason. The Cardinals went 2-2 in the preseason last year and that led to a 1-6 start so head coach Ken Whisenhunt has one goal in mind and that is to win from the start. Arizona also has an edge in the quarterback rotations as John Skelton and Kevin Kolb will be competing for the starting job and that means going all out during the preseason. On the other side, the Cardinals bring their entire defense and that is a good sign in the preseason because other players have gotten reps in practice which will help during their game time this Sunday. We have a more motivated team getting way too many points and we will grab them up in this preseason opener. 10* (241) Arizona Cardinals |
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09-01-11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Washington Redskins -7 | Top | 24-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
We waited until late in the week to release the final week of the preseason to try and get as much information as possible as to what a lot of the decisions are going to be in these normally meaningless games to end the exhibition year. There are a lot of factors that go into these final games and motivation is at the top of the list. This comes down to the coaching philosophy and how they want to handle the playing time of the regulars as well as the importance of a win heading into the regular season.
One coach that feels winning is important is Mike Shanahan. The Redskins are coming off a loss last Thursday at Baltimore but they played good enough to win. The last thing Shanahan wants is to enter the regular season with a two-game losing streak, preseason or not. The final game factor is a big one as well as Shanahan's teams are 10-3 in his 13 preseason week four games which has only added to his overall preseason record of 45-22. This is just the tip of it however. This game opened with the Redskins being just 3.5-point favorite and it has risen to a touchdown as of Thursday morning. This is one of the biggest reverse line movements you will see as the betting action is close to 50 percent on each side yet the line has doubled. That clearly shows the sharp money came in big on the Redskins to move the number as much as it did and it is being equaled out with the public money that will once again come in on the large underdogs. It still will not be enough. The information gained in these games is invaluable and Shanahan pointed out that he will treat this week |
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08-27-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 57 h 28 m | Show |
Things have not started good for the Bills as they are 0-2 to start the preseason which makes tonight's game a pretty important one. This is the first home game for Buffalo and expectations are low once again but playing well in front of the home crown can provide a big lift in what is essentially the last game that the starters will see extensive action. Buffalo lost the first two games by a combined score of 34-13 but it was outgained by just 119 total yards showing the games were closer than the scores indicate.
The Jaguars were throttled in New England in their preseason opener 47-12 and were outgained by 283 total yards. They bounced back at home last week in a win over Atlanta but it wasn't very impressive, notably on offense. "We need more efficiency offensively and certainly the trigger man plays a large role in that," said head coach Jack Del Rio. Quarterback David Garrard was 7 of 12 for 99 yards and an interception and finished with an abysmal 50.3 passer rating. The most significant improvements have come on defense in a major bid to overhaul a patchwork and porous unit that couldn |
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08-25-11 | Washington Redskins +5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
The Redskins are 2-0 to start the preseason which comes as no surprise as head coach Mike Shanahan has proven in the past that winning is a priority this time of year. They have not only been winning but have dominated. Through two preseason games, the Redskins have rolled up more yards and owned more time of possession than any other NFL team. The offense is still having a tough time scoring but for the first time, there will be a full game plan in place, including specific strategies and plays for the redzone.
The Ravens have split their opening two games, winning last week against the Chiefs which are a team under head coach Todd Haley that don't care about winning in the preseason. The same can be argued about the Redskins last opponent, the Colts, but again it comes down to which team wants or needs it more. The Ravens are not one of those teams. They are projected to once again be at the top of the AFC North and the most important factor for this older team is remaining healthy. The Ravens put up 31 points last week against the Chiefs however 21 of those points were scored in the fourth quarter when most, if not all of the team's starters were long out of the game. the Baltimore offense has only scored one offensive touchdown with their starters on the field in two games and the offensive line continues to be the biggest cause for concern, as it has not yet fielded its expected starting lineup as a group yet. With starters getting more playing time, it remains a big concern. The Redskins fall into two great time tested preseason situations. Play on road teams after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 1993. also, play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after two or more consecutive wins against the spread and undefeated in the preseason. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) since 1993. With an inflated line, the Redskins are getting additional value on top of everything else. 10* (255) Washington Redskins |
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08-21-11 | San Diego Chargers v. Dallas Cowboys -1.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a big game for the Cowboys. They did win last week at home in their preseason opener but this is a different situation. After last year's debacle of a season, Dallas has something to prove and that means it start in the preseason as well. If this was any other game, it may not mean as much but because it is the Sunday night game on NBC, the Cowboys will be out to show the world they are back. This is the type of situation we love to play and even more so when the opposition doesn't care.
It can be argued the Chargers are out to prove something as well following them missing the playoffs last season but because this game is on the road, the meaning isn't quite the same. San Diego head coach Norv Turner has not made winning in the preseason a priority and that was witnessed last week at home against Seattle. On the other side, Dallas head coach Jason Garrett wants to get that winning attitude going and he will be ever more motivated in trying to defeat his old mentor. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has looked sharp throughout camp and was 3-of-5 passing for 33 yards in his only series in the preseason opener Thursday night, his first game action since getting hurt last Oct. 25 against the New York Giants. Garrett has said that Cowboys' starters could play into the second quarter Sunday night after the first-team offense and first-team defense played just one series each last week. That is important for the latter as the backups struggled in the new defensive schemes. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan expects his charges to be motivated after they allowed Denver to take the opening kickoff last week and drive to the 1-yard line in just nine plays. The Cowboys forced a field goal which was a positive. "I'm encouraged by the way our guys have been working," Ryan said after Friday's scrimmage with the Chargers. "They've been busting their ass and getting better. This was a really good week for us. We're looking forward to this game." 10* (430) Dallas Cowboys |
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08-20-11 | Oakland Raiders v. San Francisco 49ers -3 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 58 h 55 m | Show |
The 49ers were horrible on offense last week in New Orleans as they managed just 234 yards and the six sacks and two turnovers just compounded problems. The offensive line is just as much to blame on the poor quarterback play from Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick as it is tough to find a rhythm when under constant pressure. The first game on offense is a difficult one to grade this season because of the lockout and the numerous hours of preparation time that were lost. I expect the offense to improve this week.
Part of the rationale for that was the horrible play from the Raiders defense last week. The defense last week surrendered 400 yards and had just one sack against a Cardinals team that struggled all of last season to score points. Things do not seem to be getting better as they are getting hammered with injuries on both sides of the ball. The receiving corps has three top receivers out. the two starters on Saturday will be Darrius Heyward-Bey, who missed the first couple weeks of camp, and rookie Denarius Moore. One of the best pickups during the offseason was by the San Francisco 49ers as they landed head coach Jim Harbaugh. Playing on first year head coaches in the preseason is always a good strategy as they are looking to instill a winning attitude right out of the blocks. Instead of easing his players into football shape after the four-month lockout, Harbaugh has his team getting after it with a majority of full contact practices. The early win did not come last week but heading home will be a big advantage here. Everything seemed to going great for Harbaugh and his team as report out of camp were nothing but positive. He admitted however he was not ready for the Saints and what they brought to the table on defense. Things seem positive again however as Harbaugh said Smith had distanced himself from Kaepernick in the competition to be San Francisco's starter thanks to two solid practices. Harbaugh said Smith had probably his best practice of training camp Tuesday. Now we need to see it Saturday. 10* (422) San Francisco 49ers |
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08-19-11 | Detroit Lions +2.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
Both Detroit and Cleveland are coming off impressive wins in their preseason openers but the situation sets up very well for the Lions here. The Browns took out the defending Super Bowl champion Packers in their opener and that was certainly a big win to start off the season. That spells letdown for week Two. Cleveland put up 364 yards of offense in that game and the difference ending up being a fumble return for a touchdown midway through the third quarter.
Detroit racked up 350 total yards of offense against the Bengals and while a lot of team simply run preset plays to get a look at different players, the Lions are actually going after the advantages they have. Both offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and quarterback Matthew Stafford pointed out how frequently the Cincinnati defense was playing with eight men in the box, allowing the Lions to victimize the Bengals through the air. Play calling will once again be determined what is thrown at them this week. On the other side, the defensive line dominated the Bengals and the team was missing their top draft choice Nick Fairley. The potential is there to be one of the top defenses in the NFL and they will be ready again this week. Expectations are high in Detroit this season and while their goal is to remain healthy, the Lions goal now is to win to carry over into the regular season. They won their final four games of the regular season last year and ending that momentum with preseason losses is not what they are looking for. While Stafford is the clear cut starter, there is a battle going for the backup quarterback position as well as the number three guy and that is important as it promotes a more aggressive gameplan of offense when the backups are in. The Lions fall into a solid preseason situation as well. Play on road teams after allowing nine points or less in their last game going up against an opponent after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 20-5 ATS (80 percent) since 1993. 10* (407) Detroit Lions |
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08-18-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
The big news coming out of the lockout is how the Eagles fortified their roster with a number of big free agent signings which has made them an odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Obviously that is a little premature but what it does is give us an opportunity to go against the masses as Philadelphia is going to be a very public team this season and that starts in the preseason. The Eagles are getting the early money in this matchup yet the line has moved against that as it sets up a reverse line movement scenario.
The Steelers lost their preseason opener against Washington and despite losing by only nine points, they were pretty much dominated throughout. The Redskins outgained Pittsburgh 452-186 and in the Steelers eyes, that was an embarrassment, preseason or not. Winning is important to head coach Mike Tomlin even during this time of year as he came into the 2011 preseason with a 13-4 record. On the flip side, Eagles head coach Andy Reid was 18-30 during the preseason heading into last week. Tomlin said the starters will play 20 to 25 snaps, which is significantly more than the opener. He was not happy. "Quite frankly we got outplayed in just about all areas |
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08-15-11 | New York Jets +2.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
This line is right where it should be for a preseason game so there is no real line value on either side. We need to look at the matchups and what we have heard is that the Jets should be in much better position tonight. Jets head coach Rex Ryan said Saturday that his plan is for his starters to play the entire first quarter and that goes against the grain for most teams in the preseason opener and that includes Houston. The Texans starters are not expected to play much at all.
A big concern for Houston is defense. The Texans brought in Wade Philips as defensive coordinator and they will be learning a new system. The switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense isn't always a quick or smooth one, so expecting the Texans to show much isn't likely. They have already stated that they will be running a vanilla scheme tonight and that certainly favors the Jets offense from start to finish. Only one player that returns on defense is playing the same position as last season, making it a tough transition. "Defensively, I think Wade is very basic in what we |
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08-13-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Cleveland Browns +1.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 29 m | Show |
Very rarely do you see a road favorite in the first couple weeks of the preseason but there are a couple in place for Week One with the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers being one of those. This doesn't come as much of a surprise as people who do bet the preseason will be betting on the champs because of who they are and how low this line is. The problem with that however is that this is the preseason and the Green Bay team that won last year and the Green Bay team on the field Saturday will be vastly different.
Cleveland finished 5-11 a season ago, but again, this is not the regular season. The Browns are starting over with a new coach, Pat Shurmur, which brings in the angle of playing first year coaches in their first preseason game. Playing on first year head coaches in the preseason is always a good strategy as they are looking to instill a winning attitude right out of the blocks. And that is certainly the case in Cleveland as the Browns have been down for years and are in need of an early jolt to get the confidence going. With a new coach comes new systems and that is the case for the Browns on offense as they are putting in a new West Coast offense. So far so good according to reports out of training camp and second year quarterback Colt McCoy is backing it up. "How far we've made it in a week is crazy, my comfort level in what we're doing," he said. "If you follow the transition of the whole week, we're night and day compared to where we started." With the preseason shortened for all teams, that is good news for backing the home team. Green Bay is 3-6 in its nine preseason games the last three years, taking away the third game where the starters play the majority of the time. The Packers have opened with Cleveland in the preseason the last two years, going 1-1, with both of those games taking place at home and Green Bay installed as a three-point favorite. A switch to Cleveland should make the Browns a favorite by the same amount similar to where 11 of the home teams are this week. Instead we get a ton of value backing the home underdog. 10* (272) Cleveland Browns |
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08-12-11 | San Francisco 49ers +3 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 5 m | Show |
One of the best pickups during the offseason was by the San Francisco 49ers as they landed head coach Jim Harbaugh. He has a huge upside and he will be able to turn around his team and it will start in his first game. Playing on first year head coaches in the preseason is always a good strategy as they are looking to instill a winning attitude right out of the blocks. Instead of easing his players into football shape after the four-month lockout, Harbaugh has his team getting after it with a majority of full contact practices.
A new coach means a new system and Harbaugh is implementing a new West Coast offense and things are already looking good. Quarterback Alex Smith has shown flashes of being a productive player in a system that will feature more three- and five-step drops than the previous scheme. Rookie backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick is more advanced than they expected as he has looked solid in the system as well. They want to get him as many repetitions before the season begins. The Saints are once again going to be a team to watch out for in the regular season as they bring back a solid nucleus on both sides of the ball. That works in our favor here as New Orleans is using this preseason to evaluate younger players vying for the backup spots. Granted the season ended earlier than expected a season ago with an upset loss in Seattle in the playoffs but this team is not in need of a winning attitude. Coaches often do not care about the preseason and that is the case for Saints head coach Sean Payton. Under Payton, the Saints are 11-10 in the preseason which is respectable. In the second to last preseason game, the one where starters play the majority of the game, New Orleans is 4-1 under Payton meaning it is just 7-9 in those other games which shows winning is not important to this team. Looking at this line and it comes as no surprise that the Saints are one of the heaviest bet teams in this first week of the preseason. We will take the contrarian side which is the side that will be out to actually go out and want to win. 10* (269) San Francisco 49ers |
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08-11-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders -3.5 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 9 m | Show |
The first year head coach is always a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. I am a fan of playing first year head coaches in their first games as those guys want to infuse a new winning attitude into the team as it is usually the case that the previous season was far from a good one. The Raiders were not that bad last year, finishing 8-8, but they still let go head coach Tom Cable and hired Hue Jackson to turn around a team that has been dormant for years.
Arizona finished a disappointing 5-11 last season after winning the AFC West the previous two seasons and there are a lot of new faces for the Cardinals this season. First and foremost, Kevin Kolb takes over at quarterback so he will be learning a somewhat new system as will the three remaining quarterbacks on the roster. This is due to the fact that Mike Miller takes over as full time offensive coordinator and while the system will basically be the same, there will be new wrinkles that need to be implemented. New Raiders head coach Hue Jackson is brining a new attitude and it needs to start now, not in Week One of the regular season. "I keep telling everybody that the team that we're trying to build here is not a team that, in my opinion, has been here the last eight years," he said. "We're going to be a tough, rugged football team that's going to walk with a swagger and plays the way the Raiders used to play. That's what I want, that's what I'll demand, and that's what my players are going to give me." That quote goes a long way in the preseason. There are cases where new coaches want to evaluate early on and see what they have to work with but Jackson was the offensive coordinator in Oakland last season so he knows what he has. Given the short amount of preparation time in the preseason due to the lockout, teams will still be going through the motions early on, concentrating more on fundamentals more than anything else. That is the case for both teams here but Oakland is a team that wants to win now and not later. 10* (260) Oakland Raiders |
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09-02-10 | Washington Redskins v. Arizona Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
I played on Washington in the opening week of preseason and a lot of it was due to the coaching of new head coach Mike Shanahan who is widely known for taking winning in the preseason pretty serious. You take a look at the Broncos past history in the final week of the preseason and you see a team that went out to win. This situation this week is quite a bit different however. Starting quarterback Donovan McNabb remains out and he is questionable for Week One of the regular season as well. That means Rex Grossman, the backup for McNabb, is going to be held out of this game for precautionary reasons in case McNabb has to in fact sit out that preseason opener. That put the quarterback rotation in the hands of John Beck and Richard Bartel, a rookie out of Tarleton State. While Beck and Bartel have been told that they will roughly split the playing time, the coaches have not yet told them who will be starting the game. According to Shanahan, they won
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08-29-10 | Pittsburgh v. Denver +2.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
The quarterback situation for both sides is playing a big role in this one. With Ben Roethlisberger on the shelf for the first part of the regular season, he will not get the same amount of playing time tonight than he normally would. The Steelers need to get reps from Dennis Dixon and/or Byron Leftwich with the first team and that will be case here tonight. Roethlisberger is set to start against the Broncos, but head coach Mike Tomlin indicated that Dixon will see action with the first team offense. Tim Tebow has had a decent preseason in his rookie season and he has been the talk of the team right now. Overshadowed is Kyle Orton though as he has been playing outstanding in trying to keep his job as the starting quarterback. Last week against the Lions, Orton posted a 107.6 passer rating while throwing two touchdown passes. In Orton's relief, backup quarterback Brady Quinn also played well as he threw for 115 yards with a completion percentage of 64.7 percent. Tebow missed the game against the Lions because of a rib injury and he is iffy to play tonight and that helps us. We would much rather see two veterans take all of the snaps as opposed to a rookie getting a good number of those. This is where the quarterback rotation is in our favor for tonight. According to The Denver Post, Denver head coach Josh McDaniels said he expects to play the team
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08-28-10 | Tennessee Titans v. Carolina Panthers -3 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
This is a great spot for the Panthers. Carolina is 0-2 to start the preseason and if there is a team that needs some positive momentum, it is the Panthers. In losses against the Jets and Ravens, Carolina actually won the yardage battle in both but the end result did not go its way. The offense has been the big issue as the Panthers have scored only 15 points combined and the lone touchdown came by way of the defense. It is extremely important to get this offense going and they will see that come about here. All we need to do is look at last season for the Panthers. They lost all four of their exhibition games and that carried over into the regular season. The Panthers lost their first three regular-season games and they averaged fewer than 13 points in the three losses. Carolina did end the season with an 8-8 record but it was a skewed 8-8 as a lot of the wins came when they didn
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08-26-10 | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 24-59 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
The Colts have disappointed their backers in the first two weeks of the preseason and that is no surprise as they have been this way for years. Unfortunately for us, we were on Indianapolis last week against Buffalo as the value was there but a late 10-point scoring run by the Bills sealed the fate. Now it is Week Three and this is the week that starters will see their most extensive action and that is what the Colts need right now. Even though they don
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08-21-10 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
There are plenty of good angles that favor the Cowboys in this game. We went against Dallas last Thursday and it lost at home against the Raiders and the reasoning for that along with the actual results helps the Cowboys tremendously. The big reason for going against Dallas last week was the fact it was coming off a game the previous Sunday so it was playing on a very short week. It showed. This time around the Cowboys have extra time to prepare, going from a Thursday game to a Saturday game and they also have additional time than San Diego does. The Chargers started the preseason in fine fashion as they easily took care of the Bears in Week One. I think that sets us up great here as a loss would have put some extra pressure on the players but good play means more evaluation the next time out. Plus the less time to prepare for this game is an added negative. Practicing in Dallas was a problem for the Cowboys as the heat became a real problem. Leading up to this game, practices were moved, first to the Alamodome and then out to California. That has done two things. It has given the players better conditions, which means less chance of injuries and dehydration. It has also allowed for more reps and more practice time and that is obviously important this time of the year. Having evaluated mostly young players in the first two preseason games, Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips will use his starters more in this game. The starting offense and defense has played a combined seven series, although there wasn't a detailed gameplan for either outing. The team will slowly build toward the regular season regarding its personnel and schemes. The Cowboys also fall into a solid contrarian preseason situation. Play on road teams after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 27-9 (75 percent) since 1993. 10* Dallas Cowboys
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08-19-10 | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 59 m | Show |
I successfully played against the Colts on Sunday against San Francisco and a lot of it was due to past history as that ended up being the 20th preseason loss in the last 24 preseason games for Indianapolis. It is safe to sat the Colts do not care about winning but I think we see a different Indianapolis team in Week Two. Reason being is that the Colts starters looked real sharp while the backups were dreadful and getting those units past the starters to play better is important right now. While the Colts were busy giving their game away, the Bills did not look much better in their preseason opener as they lost in Washington 42-17. I successfully played against Buffalo in that one despite it having a new head coach but it was opposed by a new head coach as well so that angle ended up being a wash. Most important was that Chan Gailey has not been a head coach since he was with Dallas back in 1998 and 1999 and while successful, he was let go after going 0-2 in the playoffs. His preseason record during that time was a dismal 1-8 so he did not care about preseason success. Buffalo, while not only playing bad against the Redskins, were hit hard by injuries. The Bill lost running back Fred Jackson for at least a month and Marshawn Lynch for about the same period which has made the running back situation very thin. That is an even bigger problem considering quarterback Trent Edwards
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08-14-10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Miami Dolphins -3.5 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
This is going to be a popular pick among the masses but being the first week of the preseason, we do not have an inflated line so this is a great time to jump on the Dolphins bandwagon. Two big factors come into play during the preseason and those are coaching and quarterback rotations. In this case, Miami has rather significant edges in both. Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano is from the Bill Parcells school of thought and that is winning during the preseason is important. Parcells was a winner this time of year as he closed his coaching career on a 21-6 run during the when he coached the Jets and Cowboys and being the Executive VP of Football Operations for Miami, he keeping that alive. Sparano was an assistant in Dallas with Parcells so that winning tradition has carried over as his Dolphins are 7-1 straight up and 6-1-1 against the number in his two seasons. On the other side, Raheem Morris took over the Buccaneers last season and they went 1-3 while allowing 87 points in those four games. Granted, it was his first season so there were new systems and such needing to take shape but if the coach was not concerned about winning in the preseason in his first year, there is no reason to think the second year is going to be any different. There is still a lot of ironing out to do as those systems on offense are still up in the air. According to the St. Petersburg Times, there are three different ways this offense can go. You have a head coach who is enamored with a power running game. You have an offensive coordinator whose background is the controlled passing game of the West Coast offense. You have a quarterback known more for vertical passing ability than West Coast-style accuracy. This means more learning and more tweaking starting this Saturday. The quarterback rotation for the Buccaneers consists of Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, Rudy Carpenter and Jevan Sneed and those players have a combined seven years of NFL experience. It came out on Wednesday that the Buccaneers primary starters are expected to play only one series against the Dolphins. Miami meanwhile has a rotation of Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, Pat White and Tyler Thigpen. Those quarterbacks have a combined 20 years of experience with Henne, Pennington and Thigpen all starting numerous games in their careers. 10* Miami Dolphins
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08-12-10 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -1.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 5 m | Show |
The Patriots ended last season on a huge downer as they were blasted at home against Baltimore in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. They have had a bitter taste in their mouths since then and while this is just the preseason, getting off to a solid start with some positive vibes is an important factor. Quarterback Tom Brady admitted that he did a bad job all of last season as a leader and he is changing that and it has been seen already in camp. He has been barking at his teammates and holding people accountable at all times. Even when he is not playing Thursday, we will see his leadership spill over. New Orleans is coming off a Super Bowl season and this is a good spot to fade the previous Super Bowl Champion. Last season, the Steelers win their preseason opener following a Super Bowl season but that was a different situation as it was an actual rematch with the Cardinals. The previous year, the Giants lost to the Lions in their preseason opener. In 2007, the Colts lost to the Cowboys in their preseason opener following a Super Bowl win and in 2006, the Steelers lost at Arizona in their first preseason game following a Super Bowl win over the Seahawks. While it is preseason, New England wants to win as mentioned and it would be even sweeter against the reigning champions. Head coach Bill Belichick is known to start strong as he is 6-1 ATS in his last seven preseason openers and with the debacle last January, he will be even more motivated to win. According to the Boston Herald,
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09-04-09 | Houston Texans v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
**8** NFLX SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **80% RUN** The firing of offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski came at a strange time with only 10 days remaining until opening day in the NFL. The reason was tabbed that the passing game was not where Tampa Bay wanted it to be and it is true that Tampa Bay's offense was not terribly impressive in the first three preseason games. The Buccaneers are in the bottom half of the league in scoring, and the passing game is among the worst. On the other hand, they have run the ball extremely well, which is what head coach Raheem Morris wants emphasized. Jagodzinski's replacement, Greg Olson, has three years of experience as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, which is two more than Jagodzinski. And there are indications the players are on board with this move, so it shouldn't cause much disruption. In three preseason games, Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman has not taken a snap against a first-team defense and he has not played a snap behind the Buccaneers' first-team offensive line. While that may seem like something we
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09-03-09 | Kansas City Chiefs v. St. Louis Rams +1 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
**9** NFLX DARK HORSE DANDY ***78% RUN*** While the 4th and final preseason game means little for most teams and starters usually get to rest, things are a little different in this matchup. Kansas City and St. Louis meet for the annual Governor
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08-31-09 | Minnesota Vikings +3.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
**9** NFL MNF PRIMETIME TV **100% ANGLE** The initial thought by many is to take the home team and fade the undefeated Vikings but when dealing with the preseason, the exact opposite holds true. Teams that have not lost in the preseason need to be ridden at this point. We saw it all weekend long as Miami. Baltimore, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle all took care of business to remain undefeated on the exhibition season. Grated, these teams and Minnesota have nothing in common when it comes to this game but there are a lot of league-wide situations that come into play and I will touch on those later. The Vikings will be giving the ball to Brett Favre on Monday for the entire first half as he will see his most extensive action since joining his new team. His first game for Minnesota was meaningless as he had just come to camp that week and ended up playing just one series against the Chiefs. The solid aspect of this, and for the team as a whole, is the fact that Minnesota played that game on Friday so there has been a lot of extra time to get ready for this Monday contest. I think the Favre spectacle has reached its pinnacle and I
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08-30-09 | Chicago Bears +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
**9** NFLX SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL *75% RUN* Jay Cutler is downplaying this game saying that it means nothing that he is facing his former team. I can guarantee you this game means something to him and he will be out to prove a point following the offseason mess that handed the Bears their first franchise quarterback since Sid Luckman 60 years ago and gave the Broncos a fresh start and a handful of high draft picks. Cutler has been impressive in the preseason as he went 8-13 for 121 yards and a touchdown in his last game against the Giants which boosted his rating to 79.1. His backup has been most impressive as Caleb Haine has gone 11-18 for 150 yards and a touchdown in his two games for a passer rating of 106.2. The biggest concern obviously is learning a new system but it seems to be fine and he showed enough physically in 25 plays against the Giants to realize he's ready for the regular season. On the other side, things are not as good. Kyle Orton, who was on the other end of that trade, has not looked good thus far as he is having a difficult time learning the complex offense that head coach Josh McDaniels brought with him from New England. I have never been sold on Orton and that was when he was running the simplest of offenses in Chicago and not a difficult one that he is facing now. In two preseason games, he has completed 64.9 percent of his passes but he has one touchdown and four interceptions for a poor passer rating of 50.9. Orton makes his home debut at Invesco Field, where he was booed by a small but vocal crowd over his poor performance in a scrimmage three weeks ago. Chris Simms has been a solid backup with a rating of 117.7 but he will not be available tonight due to a severely sprained ankle. Orton will be backed up by rookie Tom Brandstater who is 2-4 for only one yard passing in the one game he has played in. McDaniels will be seeking his first victory and that is usually a good situation to play on, especially in the first home game, but I don
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08-29-09 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 110 h 32 m | Show |
**10** NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR **86% ANGLE** The Cowboys broke in their new stadium with a convincing 30-10 victory over Tennessee to move to 1-1 in the preseason heading into Week Three. Dallas currently leads the NFL in total offense and rushing offense and that actually will help us out in this one as that is something the public will be aware of. The Cowboys defense however has not been as effective as the unit is ranked 31st in total defense and that will no doubt benefit the San Francisco offense as it is currently ranked 11th in the NFL through two games. The defense of the 49ers is also ranked 11th in the league. The overall statistical numbers are pretty meaningless this point in the preseason since the majority of the stats have come with subs in the game so we can take those too serious at this point. San Francisco announced on Monday that Shaun Hill won the starting quarterback job so he will get the start and play a good amount on Saturday. That is very beneficial for us now as he no longer faces the pressure of trying to perform over the top to win the job so now he can relax and do his thing. Alex Smith will back him up followed by Nate Davis if Smith can
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08-28-09 | New England Patriots -3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 36 h 52 m | Show |
**9** NFL FRIDAY PRIMETIME **ANNIHILATOR** This is the game we should see the real Patriots come out to play. They were no where to be found last week against Cincinnati but the first team did not play much and we will see the opposite of that this week. Tom Brady was just 4-8 for 57 yards against the Bengals in limited time but he did fare better the previous week. He threw two touchdown passes in his first game back against the Eagles two weeks ago and overall, he has a solid 92.1 passer rating. He knows that this is the week to get ready for the regular season.
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08-27-09 | Miami Dolphins +2.5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
**8** NFL THURSDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME BLOWOUT I really like the Dolphins quarterback rotation on Thursday as I believe it favors them over the Tampa Bay rotation. Chad Pennington is the starter for Miami and he will play the majority of the game against the Buccaneers, likely going into the third quarter. In Week Three, head coaches prefer to pay the starters into the second half so they can get some experience using halftime adjustments. The other Chad, Henne, will play the remainder of the game. Both quarterbacks have had a solid preseason thus far. Pennington has put up a 109.3 passer rating while completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 143 yards and a touchdown. Henne has completed a solid 63 percent of his tosses for 169 yards and two scores. His rating is lower due to one interception but it is still a potent 89.9. He led the Dolphins to a come-from-behind victory last week over Carolina and head coach Tony Sparano has indicated that the second-year player has
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08-24-09 | New York Jets v. Baltimore Ravens -3 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
**9** NFL PRIMETIME MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL The big storyline here is that Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be going against his old team for the first time and while many may think that gives a motivational edge to New York, it doesn
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08-22-09 | Detroit Lions v. Cleveland Browns -3 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
**9** NFLX SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **BLOWOUT** Detroit achieved its goal last week as it picked up a win in its first preseason game and made up for the dismal season last year. First year head coach Jim Schwartz emphasized how important it was to win the opening game to bring in a new attitude to a team that finished with the worst regular season record in the history of the NFL. With that goal achieved, winning is still a priority but it takes a bigger stance on the other side. Cleveland was shutout at Green Bay last weekend thus ruining the head coaching debut of Eric Mangini and that sets the Browns up well here. That game came on the road and with Cleveland heading hone, this is the game it certainly wants. Like Detroit, the Browns are coming off a disappointing season and they need to win into the win column even though it may just be the preseason. As far as quarterback rotations, Cleveland has the advantage as it will get long looks between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Quinn took the opening snaps last week, and Anderson figures to be under center when the first-team offense takes the field Saturday. Schwartz said quarterback Matt Stafford, the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft, will make his first start and likely play into the second quarter. Not only is it a tough situation for a rookie to make the start but Stafford is not going to have many guys to throw to. The Lions' top three receivers are likely to miss a second straight game as Calvin Johnson is out for Saturday, while Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt remain doubtful. Tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Casey FitzSimmons aren't expected to play, either. Schwartz also said the Lions aren't going to worry too much about schemes either.
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