2 Unit Play. Take #878 Kansas over Connecticut (9p.m., Friday, December 1 ESPN2) Connecticut has played a weak schedule thus far but it is going to get hard the next two games against Kansas and North Carolina. Playing in Kansas is always a tough task and look for the Jayhawks to emerge victorious since they have a great home court edge.

We like to back a good team off an embarrassing loss, and we aren’t sure the Clippers are a good team but they have talent that can’t be denied. They had one of their worst losses of the Kawhi era last time out against a banged up Denver squad. We think they will give max effort here against a Kings squad that played a tough game last night.

10 Unit Play. Take #678 North Carolina over Tennessee (7:15p.m., Wednesday, November 29 ESPN) Always like to play North Carolina at home in the nonconference portion of the season. Tennessee has issues and went 1-2 in Hawaii. Carolina went 2-1 in the Bahamas and playing this game at home is a big advantage. Tennessee struggled to score points in Hawaii, and I see them losing this game by close to double digits on Wednesday.

3 Unit Play. Take #606 Maryland over Rider (7p.m., Tuesday, November 18 BTN+) The Terrapins sit at 3-3 on the season and need to string together some nonconference wins to get a more respectable record. Tonight, should be a perfect opportunity for a 20+ point victory. Rider is a terrible team that will enter having lost 4 straight games and are just collecting check with 6 straight road games.

The Sixers have won nine of the last 10 meetings and covered in seven of those games. The Sixers are a more complete team at this point of the season. The Lakers two stars are banged up for this game, and LeBron could miss the game. We like the Sixers for a big win whether LeBron and AD play or not. Every team gives their best effort against the Lakers, but this is just another game for LA, who is trying to work out the kinks. This team is definitely focused on the postseason more than the regular season. Philly has been one of the best betting teams this season, and they are undervalued again today.

3 Unit Play. Take #743 Over in Texas A&M vs Iowa State (6:30p.m., Sunday, November 26 ESPN2) The Aggies have gone over today’s posted number in 9 straight games. Look for that to continue on Sunday, as consolation games tend to be played more up-tempo.

Boston has covered in eight of the last 10 meetings. They match up well with the Hawks, who are one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA this season at 5-10 ATS. This line is more than fair on Sunday as we expect the Celtics to score a double-digit win. Boston has struggled ATS recently but they have had a road heavy schedule. Some home cooking is just what the doctor ordered today.

5 Unit Play. Take #859 Baylor over Florida (5:30p.m., Friday, November ESPN) Baylor has better guards in this game and will take care of business at the Barclays Center and win the NIT Tip-off Championship. The Gators already have a loss to an so-so Virginia team in a netural site and they are not in the same class as Baylor. Scott Drew always seems to go on a long winning streak to open the season and 2023 should be no different. All of Baylor’s 5 wins have come over the posted number.

7 Unit Play. Take #768 Michigan over Stanford (7:30p.m., Thursday, November 23 ESPN2) Michigan is the fresher team in this game and that will be the difference in this battle to earn a chance for fifth place in the consolation round of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Stanford is coming off a double overtime loss to Arkansas yesterday and I do not believe they will have much left in the tank for this game. Michigan does not want to lose three straight games and thus expect them to take care of business on Thursday night.

3-Unit Play Take Dallas -3 over LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

Dallas is well rested, while the Lakers are on a B2B. We think Dallas is the better squad at this point of the season, and they normally bring their A Game against the Lakers, as they are 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Not only does Dallas get up for the Lakers, but they will be anxious to snap their two-game losing streak.

Best of Luck, Doc's Sports

5-Unit Play Take Sacramento -1.5 over New Orleans (8 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

We were on the Kings last time these teams played on Monday, and Sacramento didn't show up and suffered their worst loss of the season. This is a better team than New Orleans, it's difficult to beat the same team in consecutive games in the NBA, and we love to back good teams after an embarrassing loss. We expect a big bounce back from the Kings tonight and think they get a comfortable win.

2-Unit Play Take Oklahoma City -7 over Chicago (8 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

Chicago is a team to fade almost every game. This team just stinks despite some nice talent, and they have maybe the worst chemistry in the NBA. We have been hesitant to play OKC too much because they have turned into the hunted rather than the hunter, but they just continue to be one of the best bets in the NBA.

3-Unit Play Take Houston -5 over Memphis (8 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

Houston had a six-game winning streak but followed that up with three straight losses. Those were all on the road against some of the favorites in the West, and they covered in all three of those games. Now they take a big step down in talent and we think this is a great bounce back spot against a Memphis team that has all sorts of problems at the moment.

2-Unit Play Take Toronto/Indiana UNDER 238.5 (7:30 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

We were on the over for the Pacers game last night and we mentioned that soon it was time to fade the over in Pacers games. We think tonight is a perfect opportunity as this line was overinflated by maybe 5 points. The NBA is never as easy as  blindly following a trend, and with both teams on a B2B, we see some offensive struggles.

3-Unit Play Take Brooklyn +3.5 over Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST, Wed Nov 22)

Easy call here. This is one of the best ATS teams (Brooklyn, 9-3-1 ATS) against one of the worst (Atlanta, 4-9 ATS). This is a very winnable game for the road team, and Brooklyn pretty much brings the same effort on a nightly basis while the Hawks can't say the same. Brooklyn is well rested, while the Hawks played in a track meet last night.

5 Unit Play. Take #720 Under in Arkansas vs Stanford (7:30p.m., Wednesday, November 22 ESPNU) This total has really come down in the morning and I feel it is for good reason. It is always tough to shoot in this ballroom at the Atlantis and Stanford will need to slow down the pace. Look for neither team to reach 80 points in scoring and we will collect with the under.

4 Unit Play. Take #726 Kansas over Tennessee (2:30p.m., Wednesday, November 22 ESPN) Kansas needs to win today to avoid recording no quality wins for the Maui Invitational. The Jayhawks have the size and strength to matchup with the Volunteers down low and they are more skilled on the perimeter.  

4 Unit Play. Take #651 Syracuse over Gonzaga (2:30p.m., Tuesday, November 21 ESPN2) Gonzaga is not as strong as they have been in year’s past. Syracuse should have covered yesterday a similar number to what they will see today against a better Tennessee team. Gonzaga is disappointed they did not make the semifinals and thus playing for fifth place will not excite them much for this game. Take the points in the consolation bracket.

We just don’t like this New Orleans team this year. They started hot out of the gates last year and then faded, but they look much worse this year. They have some moments and there is talent here, but their star and franchise cornerstone has lots of bad karma surrounding him and it seems he doesn’t have the mental fortitude to become a superstar in this league. Sacramento has won six straight and has won and covered every game of this current road trip. They are 8-4 ATS on the year and continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. They won the last two meetings in blowouts, and we expect a comfortable win here tonight.

4 Unit Play. Take #887 Wisconsin over Virginia (6p.m., Monday, November 20 FS1) Wisconsin and Virginia have very similar styles and sooner or later Wisconsin is going to cover a spread with all their experience. Virginia lost a lot of talent from last year and will struggle to score 70 points in this game. Whoever shoots it better from the arc will win and I look for that to be Wisconsin.

OKC has covered in seven of the last eight meetings. They have won six of seven and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. And those were no bottom feeders, either, as they scored B2B wins over the Warriors, beat the Suns, and also the Cavs. Portland has lost three straight by double digits and they are in for a long night tonight.

Minnesota has covered four straight in this series and five of the last six. Of course we understand that the Pelicans just beat the defending champs and come in on a two-game win streak. But this team hasn’t shown any consistency this season and they are probably overconfident now. This win streak followed a four-game losing streak that saw them get blown out three times. Minnesota is the much better team right now, and this line is evidence of that as the oddsmakers aren’t putting too much stock in the win over Denver. And neither are we.

4 Unit Play. Take #306503 Take Over in Wagner @ Seton Hall (12p.m., Saturday, November 18) The Hall continue their early season start against cupcakes and today will be no different. The Pirates are averaging 83.7 points per game and if they hit that mark on Saturday morning this game should go over the posted today.

6 Unit Play. Take #879 Xavier over Washington (11:59p.m., Friday, November 17 ESPN2) No bet against Washington is bad bet. They have a lame duck coach, and he is trying to get away from the zone defense he is long accustomed to too. They got dominated at home by Nevada and now must travel to Las Vegas to face a well-coached Xavier team. Sean Miller is very familiar with Washington having coached many years in Arizona. Look for the Musketeers to jump out early and win this game by close to double-digits.

3 Unit Play. Take #724 Under in Missouri @ Minnesota (9p.m., Thursday, November 16 BTN) Expect a low scoring game, as both teams will not make the NCAA Tournament come March. Missouri lost a lot of players and will have to get it done with a new cast in 2023/24. They have not come close to reaching this total in their last two games.

Miami has been racking up the wins lately, but four of those games came against four of the worst teams in the NBA so far this season. They take a big step up in class tonight and this should be a very tough game for them. Brooklyn has won five straight meetings with Miami. The Nets are 9-1-1 ATS on the season. This team doesn’t have any big names so they don’t get respect from the oddsmakers, but they compete hard every night and play with a true team mentality. They also have plenty of talent and a roster of players that compliment each other. We think they have a great chance for the outright win tonight. Miami is not a good regular season team, and things have been going a little too well for them lately.

The Hawks have the better record right now but there’s no doubt to us that the Knicks are the better team. They already won comfortably here last month. They have been playing very well recently until they played their worst game of the season last time out on a back-to-back against Boston. But Boston is a Top 3 team in the NBA, and the Hawks should provide a nice opportunity to get back on track. This time the Hawks are on a B2B. And even though Young didn’t play last night (new father), the rest of the roster will have a tough time keeping up the pace against this physical Knicks team.

Nice revenge spot for Indiana as they lost to Philly on Sunday. They were ahead for most of the game but the Sixers rallied in the fourth. It is really hard to beat a team in consecutive games, especially a strong team like the Pacers. Indiana had won three straight before that loss to Philly, and we think they will make the necessary adjustments to hang close or even win outright.

6 Unit Play. Take #605 Wisconsin over Providence (6p.m., Tuesday, November 14 FS1) The Badgers are a brutal nonconference schedule and need to win this game against a rebuilding Friar team. Providence lost their coach and have new players and a new philosophy. Wisconsin should find things easier tonight compared to facing the ultra-athletic Tennessee team last Friday. Wisconsin makes some shots tonight and earn the victory.

4 Unit Play. Take #306585 Over in Southern @ Arizona (8p.m., Monday, November 13 P12N) We nailed a total with Southern last week and expect another high scoring game on Monday in Tucson. Arizona is coming off an impressive win against Duke on Friday and I expect their defense to struggle in this game from tired legs after making a cross country flight. We will not worry if they can cover this big number and instead just focus on the total.

Even though it has been at home, the Knicks have won three straight. And they have looked good in the process. And sometimes building confidence at home can translate to continued success on the road. We don’t doubt that New York will be hyped for this matchup even though they are on a B2B. But they easily dispatched Charlotte on Sunday and this game was early so not too intense a B2B. These teams opened the season against each other so this sets up a revenge scenario since Boston won the first one.

Tough to lay this many points with the Clippers with the way they have been playing. They came off a tough road trip winless. This is no Must Win this early in the season, but you sense this is a majorly important game with LA at 3-5. The good news is that all three of those wins came at home, all blowouts, and this Memphis team is certainly vulnerable to get rolled today.

Milwaukee has enjoyed a home-heavy schedule to start the season, and they haven’t been great on the road. They are also 1-6-1 ATS this season and have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. We think that is the case today. The Bucks will get their best shot from every opponent, and the Magic are an underrated team and 6-2 ATS on the season.

7 Unit Play. Take #862 Wisconsin over Tennessee (9p.m., Friday, November 10 Peacock) Both teams return a bunch of talent from last year, but I just do not trust Tennessee and their Coach Rick Barnes. We have made a lot of money fading them in the past and this season should be no different. Wisconsin has the size and plays physical to matchup with Tennessee in the post and I am just not sure the Vols can make enough jump shots in a true road game. Wisconsin scored 105 points in their opening game of the season and that happened despite not making a 3-point basket in their first half. With a tough road game against Providence on deck, this is a game they need and will get it in a big way.

Love the Hawks in this spot. They are playing well, having won four of their last five, with the loss coming last time out at the Thunder. Orlando is a fine team, but they are still working a lot of things out early in the season and they just haven’t been consistent enough to trust against a team like Atlanta. The Hawks are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, so they normally bring their A Game vs. the Magic.

2 Unit Play. Take #306539 Over in Southern @ UNLV (10p.m., Wednesday, November 8 MWN) Southern gave up 108 points to TCU on Monday and I expect them to give up a bunch of points to UNLV tonight in Sin City. The Rebels improved in year two under Kevin Kruger and look for more improvement in 2023-2024.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Boston has won and covered two straight in this series and seven of the last 10. We are getting a nice line tonight because Philly is 6-0 ATS, but they will not last forever. Boston always gets up for big games like this and we could see their best effort of the season so far. The Celtics have also been one of the best betting teams for several years, so they can usually be trusted in these spots.

Harden will debut tonight for the Clippers and this team has a lot of firepower. Health is always a problem with this team but they are healthy now and the slow-starting Knicks are in for a long night, in our opinion. The Clippers have struggled on the road but we think the bright lights of MSG will bring out the best in this team.

Memphis is 0-5 to start the season. We think they will get their first win tonight with style points. This team has lots of talent even without Morant. This is their first game of the in season tournament, so we think there is a great chance for this to be the impetus for them to snap out of this funk. Portland will finish with one of the worst records in the west. While Memphis hasn’t played well, this roster is miles better than what the Blazers will be trotting out, and if this matchup was the first game of the season (without the way the Grizzlies have played), Memphis would probably be around a 7- or 8-point favorite here based on the talent.

We love the Jazz in this spot tonight. We think they are being punished too much by the oddsmakers for this being a back-to-back. But this is a young team, and this is early in the season, so we don’t think that will come into play tonight. The Jazz ran roughshod over the Grizzlies last night and the starters got some extra rest. No starter played more than 28 minutes. These teams don’t play often, but the Jazz are 8-1 in the last nine meetings. Orlando normally doesn’t play well here. The Magic are an exciting, up and coming team, but they were bad on the road last year and they should be this year also. The Jazz were a surprise team at the start of last season and they were one of the best betting teams early. We think they are a solid bet at this point in the season, and we expect them to win outright tonight.

The over has cashed in seven of the last ten meetings, and the last meeting saw 250 scored by both teams. We could see that kind of offensive output tonight. These teams are going to run tonight and execute their offense quickly. Washington is No. 1 in the league for pace to start the season, and Atlanta is not far behind. When teams play at this kind of pace, the total can weather a couple cold spells and still go over. The last time Washington met a team high in the pace ratings was their game against Indiana that saw 263 points scored. We think this one can be that kind of barnburner tonight.

These teams combined to go 5-0 to the under, and the bookies haven’t adjusted this number enough. Both teams have started slow on the offensive end and both are playing really well on defense. We think the defenses will both step up here as this is a big game for both teams early in the season. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

The Grizzlies are being punished too much on the line for this back-to-back. The season is still young, and back-to-backs aren’t that big of an issue right now. And Memphis has some depth. Washington is getting used to live without Bradley Beal, one of the franchise cornerstones for what seemed like a lifetime. They have new faces and lots of question marks. Their absolute ceiling is the play in tourney, while that same ceiling is a championship for Memphis. Memphis has won six of the last eight meetings. We think they make that seven of nine tonight and win this one by a comfortable margin.

Philly has won two of the last three meetings. Milwaukee is undergoing a lot of changes and it will take awhile for the team to completely gel, and we think it will be slow going for this team for the start of the season and they will be facing inflated lines. We expect a close, hard-fought game here and we think the defenses will step up against an inflated total. The under has hit in three of the last four meetings, and we expect this one to fall under the posted number as well.

Detroit is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Detroit was a solid bet when getting big points last season, especially early in the season. Miami is more of a playoff type team that turns in on in the postseason, but this team has slogged through the regular season the last couple years, and they can’t be trusted laying this kind of number.

Fans of offense are really going to enjoy Opening Night as these two teams always light up the scoreboard when they meet up. Three of the last four meetings have gone over the posted total, with one push, and all would have gone over tonight’s posted number. The offenses will be ahead of the defenses to start the season, and both of these clubs have tremendous firepower offensively. These are going to be two teams that will both be in the Top 5 for points per game by season’s end barring major injuries. Chris Paul will be very motivated against his former team, and despite some players out there is still plenty of firepower. Both teams should bring their A Game here as this is one of the biggest games of the season for both teams with two of the major contenders in the west. This will be a very competitive game, as the spread indicates, and both teams will get their points. The winning team has scored 123 or more in the last four meetings, and we expect that kind of offensive output here on Tuesday night.

We think the pressure got to the Heat a bit in this series and they had just come off a grueling Eastern Conference Finals. They have never quite got their footing in this series. The pressure is essentially off now that they are in a big hole and we think they will play free here and we just think this is too many points. The Denver defense has been good, but also the Heat haven’t shot well so they are due for a better shooting game. We think they Nuggets might not bring their A Game with such a cushion in this series and we wouldn’t be surprised if the Heat challenged for the win here. We know from what we have seen in these playoffs that the Heat aren’t just going to roll over.

Some people might follow the Zig Zag Theory here in Game 4 assuming Miami will strike back and even up the series. They have been resilient for sure. But we don’t think so. Denver is the best opponent they have faced in the postseason and the Nuggets are a complete team. Denver got a wake-up call in Game 2, and they responded like we expected in Game 3 in Miami with a dominant performance. This team is hungry, and the championship is right there for them. We don’t think they are going to squander the opportunity, and we think they will treat this game as a must win and bring their A Game tonight. With that Game 3 win, Denver has now covered five straight in Miami, and they are 27-10 ATS long term against the Heat, which is a long term string of domination since these teams don’t play often.

This Heat run in the postseason has been legendary, but we have to go with our handicapping here and that states the Nuggets are the stronger team. Miami used a big fourth quarter for their Game 2 win, and they shot the lights out in that game with almost 50 percent shooting from the floor and three-point land. We think Denver will clamp down more on defense and we see a slower paced game here and we think Denver will come out on top with a comfortable win.

Love Denver in this spot in Game 2. Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and teams that win in this playoffs are covering at a very high rate. Miami looked great and this run has been incredible, but Denver is definitely their strongest opponent yet in this postseason, and the Heat have been on the wrong end of plenty of blowouts this postseason. They have lost six games in the playoffs by nine or more points. We think Miami will put up a fight in the first half but that the Nuggets will start to pull away in the second and should win this one comfortably by the final buzzer.

The Miami/Boston playoff series was one of the most epic postseason series in awhile, and that had to take an emotional toll on the Heat. We know that we are still thinking about it, so we can’t imagine what is going through the players minds, and then they have to shift their focus pretty quick here. We don’t see it working out well in Game 1, and a blowout would bode well for our position here. The Heat have gone under in four straight games, while the Nuggets have gone under in four of six. They could start off the game with a little rust, and even a short cold spell could help the under immensely.

All the pressure is on Boston here. They have been one of the favorites in the East all season, while not much was expected out of Miami, especially after they landed in the Play In Tournament. We have history on our side here as no team has ever come back from down 3-0 to win a series. But we will go with the spread in the case of a close game. We expect a low scoring game here, and that makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable. Also love that this one is on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 (when the team down stops fouling at the end of the game).

Love the Celtics to win here and we think this line is more than fair after the beating Boston put on Miami in Games 4 and 5. They have totally taken back momentum in this series. We don’t know if they will go on to win this thing, but we do think they will force Game 7 tonight. Boston seems focused and they haven’t once panicked even down 3-0 in this series. They have the swagger and experience to get the job done here, and they have a major edge in talent on the floor. They have stepped it up on the defensive end the last two games, and we see more of the same here in Game 6.

Boston has tons of talent and a lot of playoff experience, and we don’t think they are out of this series yet. We don’t even think they are panicked. They sure didn’t look like it in Game 4. They put their heads down and confidently got the job done. That was a 17-point road win with their season on the line. All they need to do is take this one game at a time and a win here would put them right back in this series. And the oddsmakers seem to agree with this line. But we aren’t worried about the points here. Boston has covered in every game they have won this postseason, and in 12 straight stretching back to the regular season. Even though we took Miami in the first three games of this series, we love to back the Celtics this season because of their resilience and their competitive fire. They don’t want to just win, they want to dominate. We think they captured the momentum in this series and we expect another big win as they have seemed to figure things out a bit and made the necessary adjustments.

The Celtics have a lot of postseason experience and we don’t think they will be too panicked here. It is rare to come back from this deficit, but the Celtics can take it one game at a time and get back in this series. A win here, and they are back at home and favored for Game 5. Miami has been the better team in the series but the Celtics have the players are experience to avoid the sweep tonight. Also, might the refs give Boston some extra calls? We are confident the NBA doesn’t want two sweeps in the conference finals.

It is very rare to get a sweep in the NBA Playoffs, especially the conference finals, and we just don’t see it happening today. The Nuggets have the series firmly in hand, and they will likely let up a little here and won’t have that killer instinct on the road, while the Lakers will be clinging to any last hope to save their season and extend this series another game. Even though Game 3 was pretty one-sided, the Lakers hung tough in Games 1 and 2, and we think they go all out to get the win here tonight.

Miami has simply been the better team in this series and they have the chance to deal the knockout blow tonight as it would be extremely difficult for the Celtics to come back down 3-0, with two more games scheduled in Miami. This line is a very public one as we had this game handicapped at PK, so there is great value here as we think this one goes down to the final minute and should be a very close game.

The Nuggets match up very well with the Lakers and despite this being a must win for LA, we think Denver has a great chance to put LA on the brink of elimination here then they could let down in Game 4. But we think this team is very hungry for a championship and Denver will treat this like a must win. Denver has shown they can hang with the Lakers offensively, but they are the stronger defensive team, and that will be the difference here in Game 3, at least where the spread is concerned as we just don’t see LA running away with this one.

We are a big believer that when Boston wins they normally cover. But we think this may be a rare situation where they win but don’t cover the spread. This is simply too many points. We had this line handicapped at 6, so this number, on the other side of the key NBA number of 7 (when a team with the lead stops getting fouled at the end of the game), offers very nice value. Miami is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they have proven to be a legit championship contender. We are sure they are aware that Boston came back from an early hole to beat Philly, so we think they will go all out to try and win this one and put Boston in the worst possible spot for the series.

We expected Game 1 to be high scoring but we think these teams will settle in for Game 2 and we expect a much more defensive game tonight. And we are getting an even better number here for the under in a game we expect to be totally different from Game 1. Three of four regular season games between these teams went under, and the Lakers will clamp down on defense tonight and we think this total could go under by more than 10 points.  

Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and we expect another big performance tonight. The Lakers have surprised in the playoffs and they have looked good, but they will be facing, in our opinion, the best team in the west here, and they are taking a big step up in competition for the conference finals. The Lakers haven’t been good on the road this season. And they have had trouble in Denver in the last couple seasons, where they are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings here. Denver is 21-9 ATS at home against above .500 teams, and they will be ready for another dominant performance tonight.

Philly had Boston right where they wanted them for Game 6 with a chance to close it out at home, but they couldn’t get the job done and now Boston is a decent favorite at home to win the series and they have all the momentum. Boston is one of the teams we love to trust as they usually win by more than the spread when they do win. And they are excellent as a favorite. Boston has tons of postseason experience and the guys know what they need to do here. We think they bring their A Game today.

We rarely ever bet on the Lakers, so you know we like them if that is the way we are moving on this game. Golden State has stunk on the road all season. They had some road heroics in the first round at Sacramento, but this is a lot better team they are facing tonight. The Lakers made the right moves at the deadline and they are gelling at the right time. The Warriors had a long season last year with their extended playoff run and we think this team will finally run out of gas here in Game 6. Golden State has been following the Zig Zag theory for NBA playoff betting as they are 1-5 ATS after a win. They haven’t covered in the last five games in Los Angeles.

We think Boston is still in this series. In fact, we think they will win it. They are not panicking and they have players that have seen and done it all. The Sixers got the upper hand the last two games, but we think Boston will lock down on defense tonight and pull away in the fourth quarter in a low-scoring game.

Three of the four games in this series have gone over, but two of those went over on the final bucket. We expect a low scoring game here with these defensive minded teams. The Knicks have played pretty solid defense in this series but will have to go all out on the defensive end tonight to keep their season alive. We think they will leave it all on the court tonight. The Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and they will want to exert their will here. The under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in New York.

Home court has held serve in this series so far, and we expect more of the same tonight. We think Denver is the better team and we expect a strong showing with one of the best home court advantages in the league. We doubt Booker will play like he has in the last couple games, and we think we will see some top performances from some of the role players on Denver.

The Warriors were not good on the road in the regular season, but they did win some crucial games in the postseason in Sacramento already and we think they have the experience and talent to bounce back here after getting handled in Game 3. Golden State shot horribly in that game, and this team just doesn’t stay cold for long. Golden State has bounced back nicely after ATS losses lately as they are 4-0 ATS in these situations.

Love the Nuggets in this spot. We feel they are clearly the better team. They were never going to sweep the Suns, but Phoenix got their win in Game 3 and played about the best game they could, but Denver was still in striking distance at the end. We expect a better effort from the road team in this one and not quite the same effort from the home team. We had the Nuggets as a one-point favorite in our handicapping, so excellent value here and the points could come in handy if the game goes down to the buzzer.

Both games have gone over, but as this series goes on the defensive intensity will pick up. Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, and they should set the tempo early on their home court. These teams are getting very familiar with each other, and we think this will be a very low scoring Game 3. Even though both games have gone over, Game 1 should have gone under but there was a late meaningless bucket, and Game 2 could have gone either way. We think that sets up for a slugfest here, and we think the oddsmakers should have lowered this total.

We absolutely love the Celtics in this spot. We think one of the best things that could have happened to this team for the series was to lose Game 1 at home. That has upped the intensity and the urgency for this team, and it showed in their dominating Game 2 performance. Embiid came back for the Sixers in Game 2 and played decently. But who knows how his health will hold up here. If this was the regular season, he would for sure be out for an extended period, and it’s never a great idea to rush a player back. But even if he is 100%, we still like Boston here. The Celtics normally cover when they win. This has been one of the safest teams to bet on for several years as they normally bring their A Game and they play great team basketball. This is a team that you can trust. And they know they have a great path to the championship this year with some contenders bowing out early. We really think this is an important game for Boston, and they are a tier above the Sixers, and we think they flex their muscles tonight and take back home court advantage in the series.

We had the under in Game 1 and barely missed. But we noticed the oddsmakers didn’t adjust the total here despite the game going over and the public largely liking the over in this matchup. The under is 7-2 in the last nine for Golden State after an ATS loss, and we think they step up the defense tonight. In fact, we think both teams will step it up on defense and we think this one will land comfortably under the posted number.

We were on Philly in Game 1 and had an idea they would be competitive but did not expect them to win. This puts Boston into an almost Must Win situation tonight. But this is a veteran team that has seen it all and done it all, and we think they will be fine. When Boston wins, they normally win by enough to cover as well. They have been prone to some bad efforts in these playoffs but normally bounce back with a stellar performance, and that is what we see tonight, especially with Embiid likely out again for Philly

We had the Under in Game 1 and had a bad push on a late, meaningless bucket. That game was a bit higher scoring than we expected, and we think this one will turn into a defensive battle as the series goes on, especially with so many banged up players on each team. We see the Heat having a lot of trouble scoring in this one and expect the Knicks to pull away late. Nice bounce back spot after getting surprised in Game 1.

Philly is likely without Embiid tonight as he is listed as doubtful. But this is a very solid team even without the MVP candidate. We think they keep the game close with DEFENSE tonight, and this total is too high. The last three meetings all went under, and we all know teams step up the defense in the playoffs. These are two Top 5 defenses and we think that is on display tonight, and the Sixers probably cover because the big underdog points are more valuable in a low scoring game. 

The Warriors should have won Game 6 at home, now they are in a real bad position having to win Game 7 in Sacramento. They have been horrible on the road this season. This team played a lot of basketball last season with a long playoff run, and they really looked tired in Game 6, and this is a quick turnaround, and we don’t see them getting the job done here. They have the experience, but the Kings are for real and they have a lot of swagger and we think they bring their A Game in what should be an electric atmosphere in Sacramento.

We were not impressed with what we saw from the Suns in the first round. They let the Clippers hang around in almost every game despite a banged up LA squad. They face a huge step up in competition here. Denver is flat out the better team, and they have the best player on the court. Jokic also has more help around him than ever before, and they are almost unbeatable at home. We think the home teams will win in this series, and there is great value in this line as the Suns are overvalued in the market right now.

We don’t see the Kings going down without a fight, and if they can scrap to a win here, then they have a great chance to close the series out at home. They have suffered only one blowout in this series, and we don’t see it happening again here. They have covered in 12 of the last 15 meetings here, and we don’t see them being intimidated. This team has played with a lot of confidence and swagger, and they are the team with nothing to lose tonight, so they can play free. We see another close game here.

Boston has been great in bounce back situations and we think they will be very focused here since Atlanta stole one in the last game. Atlanta has shown they can be competitive and we think this game will be until Boston pulls away late, but both teams will get their share of the total in this one.

The Bucks are in a desperate situation here and we think they will step up the defense here. Butler went off for 50+ last game but we don’t see him being as hot here and he doesn’t have a lot of help with the Heat injuries. With all the games going over so far, we think this line has been overadjusted and we think this could be the lowest scoring game of the series so far.

This Clippers team is toast. The role players have played decently enough but you just get the feeling that not only is this series done, but this team might get blown up in the offseason. Kawhi is out again and dealing with major off-court issues anyways. Coach Lue was defending him to the press and the tone there was that the season was already over even though he wouldn’t say that. We think this one has the biggest chance of a blowout of the series.

We expect to see a game that looks more like Game 1 tonight than Games 2 or 3. After a real low scoring one last time out, the oddsmakers didn’t make a big adjustment to their number, and that is telling. We see a competitive game here and think both teams get their share of the total tonight.

This series has just been pure domination by the Celtics, and this is one series that looks like a possible sweep. Boston knows the importance of getting a series over with quickly in the first round. Boston is a very good road team and they will be motivated here to put another nail in the coffin for the Hawks. Boston is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season, and we think they will flex their muscles again here in Game 3.

The Suns played an amazing Game 2 and the Clippers didn’t play their best, and they were still in it for the majority of the game, We think this series is close than most others and the Clippers should have a great chance in both games at home. We had this game handicapped at pickem, so we think there is really good value at this number, especially since it’s above the NBA key number of 2.

We think the Suns with Durant are a tad bit overrated and we think the Clippers without George are a tad bit underrated. And we love this line for the underdog on Tuesday. Yes, the Suns were 8-0 with Durant in the regular season. But this is the playoffs, and Durant still hasn’t had time to gel with his teammates. The Clippers have a lot more depth and they can punish you from a variety of areas, whereas the Suns are very thin even though they have more star power. We expect another close game here.

These teams finished out the regular season against each other and now play in Game 2 on Monday. Philly scored 134 and 121 in those two games, respectively. And the Sixers didn’t even have a full squad in the regular season finale. We don’t see any way the Nets slow down the Philly offense, and we expect them to put up another big number tonight. We think there’s a possibility that the Nets make some offensive adjustments and do better on offense and play a more competitive game. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and we think that trend will continue here in Game 2.  

Love the Kings in this spot. They were the much better team in the regular season, and this isn’t just a flash in the pan as this team will likely be good for years. Maybe we will be seeing a changing of the guard in this series for the top team in California. Golden State is 11-30 on the road this season, and we don’t expect them to suddenly fix their road woes in the postseason. They are also 5-13 in the last 18 meetings against Sacramento. The Kings won’t want to let a season worth of hard work to go to waste by giving up home court in Game 1, and we think the Warriors are getting too much respect in this Game 1 because of past accomplishments.

We were on the Wolves against the Lakers and were lucky to cover that one after one of the worst fourth quarter performances of the season. OKC looked great against the Pelicans and they didn’t look nervous or intimidated. They looked like a playoff team. Minnesota sure didn’t. We think the poor play late will carry over here and we think the internal problems the Wolves are facing will be too much to overcome here.

We can’t deny that the Timberwolves are a circus right now with everything going on with this team right now. But with all the negative media attention, plus the Lakers being one of the biggest public betting teams in all of sports, this line has been way over adjusted. Minnesota still had a solid team to bring to the court tonight, and they have covered in six of the last seven meetings and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to LA to play the Lakers. Some very nice value in this line tonight.

The Mavs got a lot of heat for tanking out of the play in in their last game, and their main players are out here. This is still a better team than San Antonio will have on the court today, and we think the Mavs will go all out to get the win here with the roster they have on the floor. We think that Dallas has nice motivation here because of the controversy and we expect a comfortable win today.

The Clippers need a win here. A loss could mean the play in tournament. They won’t lose, but we think this one will be a blowout. The Blazers are looking forward to their offseason and they have a skeleton crew roster right now.  The Clippers are relatively healthy. Portland has lost four of their last eight games by 20+ points, and that shows they just don’t care that much at the moment. LAC have covered all of the last six meetings in LA.

This game means a lot for the Pelicans who want to move up out of the play in and the Knicks are stable at the No. 5 seed and will be trying to avoid injuries. The Pelicans are playing excellent basketball down the stretch and they have been winning and covering a lot lately. If this team can get into the first round or win in the play in then Zion Williamson could be back for the playoffs, and a healthy Pelicans could be a force to be reckoned with. So they have some extra motivation here.

It’s not often that we see the Spurs listed as a favorite, but here we are. And we think it’s very justified for this game tonight. Both teams have skeleton rosters here. But the Spurs have the better roster here and home-court advantage. Plus, they are in a better state mentally than the Blazers. The Spurs have been tanking all season and they know what they are. The Blazers had high expectations this season and fell well below them, and this franchise will be facing a lot of changes soon. The Spurs are just further ahead in their plan and we think that translates on the court tonight. They also have a winning record as a rare favorite and have covered in five of the last seven meetings.

We liked the rested Clippers before we saw the Lakers use tons of energy last night vs. Utah, and now this looks like an even worse spot for them against the Clippers, a team that has owned them in recent years. The Clippers have won and covered five straight in the series. They are coming off two straight losses and they need a win badly here. The Lakers have played two grueling road games since the Clippers last played, and they needed OT last night to get by Utah, so this is a supersized back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Tough task against a Clippers team desperate for a win.

New Orleans is playing as well as any team in the Western Conference right now and they are on the verge of moving up from the play in and being a Top 6 seed as they are one game out. They face a Kings team that didn’t play well Sunday in a loss to the Spurs. They face a considerable step up in class tonight against a well-rested team. The Kings have covered only two of their last seven meetings here and normally don’t play their best in the Big Easy.

Two very good defensive teams here and we see points being hard to come by tonight. The Knicks are coming off a spectacular defensive performance where they held the Heat to 92 points. Cleveland has held two of their last five opponents under the century mark. The Cavs are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA for points allowed, and they have had two nights off, so they will have plenty of energy for lock-down defense. The under is 4-1 in their last five playing with two days of rest. The Knicks are trending to the under, with four straight going under the posted total. The last two meetings both went under, and the finals were well under tonight’s posted number.

Love the Celtics in this spot. They are coming off a drubbing by the Wizards in a game where they were probably looking ahead, and we are getting a better line as a result. Milwaukee is on a back-to-back and they played a crazy game last night vs. Indiana where they scored 149 in a fast paced game. They worked hard and ran a lot, and we think they will be tired here. The Celtics always seem to get up for big games, and the Bucks have been the opposite as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight against teams above .600. Boston is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee, and they won’t be intimidated at all to play their best here tonight.

These teams played on March 16 and the total went over by 25 points. But just because one game is high scoring, doesn’t mean this one will be. Both teams have crucial players on the injury report, and we don’t see the Pacers having anywhere near the success they did in scoring 139 last time. Milwaukee will no doubt tighten up on the defensive end, and Indiana won’t shoot as well as they did in the last meeting, especially from deep.

Just think this is too many points and a possible letdown spot for the Celtics with their big game against the Bucks looming. Washington hasn’t covered a lot of spreads lately but they will no doubt want to play well here against the Celtics in front of the home fans, and we just don’t see Boston running away with this one, especially since they likely have their eyes on the Bucks matchup on Thursday.

The Sixers two best players are questionable here and this Philly team is reeling a bit. They have lost two straight and three of four, and those losses weren’t pretty. Denver has won and covered three straight and four of five, and it seems this team’s recent struggles are in the rearview mirror. Denver matches up well here and this team seems to have raised their level of play lately and in the last few games this team looks like a squad that can beat anyone. We think they will want to make a statement in this possible NBA Finals preview.

After scoring below the Century Mark in two straight games, the Spurs broke out with 124 in a losing effort in Washington last time out. We don’t see them getting anywhere near that against a Top 5 defense here. The Spurs have a lot of injuries right now and their lineup hasn’t been a cohesive unit lately. There’s not much indication the Spurs will even care about this game. And a likely blowout bodes well for the under.