4 Unit Play. Take #794 Washington State +2.5 over Nevada (5p.m., Sunday, December 7 ESPN+) Just do not trust Nevada laying points in this true road game. Washington State is desperate for a win after losing 3 straight games and playing in the Pullman is always a tough task. Throw in the bad blood of poaching teams from Nevada’s league and I see this game going down to the wire with the Cougars coming out on top by 2 or 3 points.

The Clippers are on a back-to-back here while the Timberwolves are fresh and healthy. You never know if they will pull Kawhi Leonard right before the game, so we could get even more value here. The Clippers have no other players other than Kawhi and Harden who can score when needed. That was evident at Memphis last night when the game was close at the end and no one could make a shot and the Grizzlies cruised to a win. Both teams have been horrible ATS but someone has to cover here and we believe in the Timberwolves even though they have underachieved. They have won four straight entering this game, and they are starting to turn things around. They have won eight of the last nine meetings and they covered in six of those games.

2 Unit Play. Take #604 Purdue -5 over Iowa State (12p.m., Saturday, December 4 CBS) Playing Purdue is always a tough task, but it is even tougher when playing them at Mackey Arena. Both teams are 8-0, but Iowa State has not played as difficult of a schedule as Purdue has. St. Johns and Creighton are not as strong this season, whereas Purdue has beaten Texas Tech and Alabama. The crowd will be into this game and Purdue will pull away at some point and win it by double digits.

Phoenix is the best ATS team so far this season but Houston is not far behind, and they have a habit of blowing the Suns out when these teams meet. Phoenix lost Devin Booker for at least a few games as he exited their win over the Lakers early with a groin injury. Some players stepped up in his absence, but Houston will have a good gameplan ready. The Rockets are playing about as well as any team in the league right now, and you know Durant will want to have a good showing against his former team. Houston has won and covered in eight of ten meetings, including three straight. The last two have been blowouts, including a meeting in Phoenix a couple weeks ago, and we expect to see more of the same tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #727 SMU over Vanderbilt (9:15p.m., Wednesday, December 3 SEC Network) Vanderbilt is having a resurgence in football and basketball but I see them having a letdown tonight after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis last week. SMU is also undefeated on the season and Andy Enfield is a good coach that will get SMU into the Big Dance. We will grab the points with them tonight.

The Bulls have had a tough run of it lately but they have been on the road a lot and have played some tough games against good teams. Eight of their last ten games have been on the road. But they are back at home tonight and five of the next six are at home, and this is a chance to turn the season around. The Bulls are 6-2 at home this season and have covered a lot of spreads here. Brooklyn is one of the better teams in the league they could start their homestand against. Brooklyn has a losing ATS record despite getting some very generous lines. They have played a little better lately, but they have covered some games against teams that probably knew they could win without giving 100 percent. But the Bulls don’t have that luxury as they are in desperate need of a win here. Brooklyn is coming off a rare win vs Charlotte and this team is Fat and Happy and they aren’t even trying to win a lot of games this season with no hopes of any postseason glory. The Bulls have won the last two meetings by a combined 22 points, and we expect another double-digit win here.

This game should be a blowout and the key here is to if the Wizards can get their share of the total. The Philly defense has given up a lot of points lately, and two of their last three opponents put up 140+. They give up 119 per game. Washington recently had that dud against the Pacers where they scored only 86, but they put up 129 against the Bucks and 132 against the Hawks. They can definitely get their share of the total. And the Wizards have the worst defense in the league by far, allowing 128 per game. This one will be a barnburner, and both teams trend to the over on the season.

7 Unit Play. Take #610 Michigan State -5 over Iowa (7p.m., Tuesday, December 2 Peacock) One of these teams will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten on Tuesday when the Hawkeyes head to Breslin Center to open up Big 10 play. Michigan State is the more battle tested team in this matchup, and they do not want to start 0-1 in conference play after a great nonconference portion of the season. Iowa has a new coach and system, and I do not expect them to be able to compete in this game and keep the deficit under double-digits. The Spartans have taken the Hawkeyes lightly in the past but that will not be the case tonight.

We think this total is too high anyways, but we also think the Clippers might circle the wagons and play a strong defensive game here. This is too early in the season for a Must Win Game, but LA was a title contender entering the season and they are seeing their season slipping away. They just lost home games to the Mavs and Grizzlies as big favorites. Miami plays at the fastest pace in the league but the Clippers are one of the slowest teams. The Clippers don’t want a shootout here as they have only two players who can consistently score points, and their bench is ineffective in that area. Miami played in a shootout against Detroit last time out, but overall their offense has not looked as good lately and the Clippers have had their struggles. Two straight and three of four for LA have gone under. Two of three for the Heat have gone under. Four of the last six meetings overall have gone under the posted total.

2 Unit Play. Take Iona -1.5 over Delaware (7p.m., Monday, December 1 ESPN+) The Gaels took a bad loss last time out, but I expect them to recover in this game. Iona is averaging over 84 points per game, nearly 16 points per game more than what Delaware is averaging. Just do not think the Blue Hens can keep pace in this game.

This is simply too many points. The Hornets have some momentum, as they beat the Bulls on Friday here in Charlotte. While a back-to-back is always tough, getting it at home lessens the blow. Toronto has been a covering machine this season, but they have missed the cover in two of their last three, which indicates these lines might be getting inflated. These teams met in Toronto less than two weeks ago and the Hornets lost by only two. We think they match up decently here with the Raptors, and we expect a close game here.

3 Unit Play. Take #667 Wisconsin over TCU (5:30p.m., Friday, November 28 FS1) TCU went all out to beat an overrated Florida team yesterday and I do not believe that they have much left in the tank for Friday. Wisconsin cruised to a victory on Thursday and shot the ball well from long range. They won by 19 points despite their best players going 2-10 from the field. The Badgers will win this game by double digits, and we will collect with them on two straight days.

2 Unit Play. Take #654 Nevada over San Francisco (2p.m., Friday, November 28 TruTV) Do not believe Nevada is as bad as they showed yesterday. The are playing a mid-major and I do not think they will lose this game by double digits.

2 Unit Play. Take #848 Stanford over Minnesota (9:30p.m., Thursday, November 27 CBS Sports Network) No bet against Minnesota in college basketball is ever a bad bet. They are rebuilding this year and I see them struggling in this tournament.

2 Unit Play. Take #854 Wisconsin over Providence (5:30p.m., Thursday, November 27 FS1) This tournament appears to be set up for Wisconsin and Florida to meet in the finals tomorrow and that is how I see it going on Thanksgiving. Wisconsin got run out of the gym against BYU, but Providence does not have that type of offensive production. This is a high total and I expect Wisconsin to pull away late and win this game by double digits.

2 Unit Play. Take #843 Washington over Nevada (4:30p.m., Thursday, November 27 CBS Sports Network) Just not sure Nevada can keep pace in this game. Washington lost last year in Reno and thus they will have revenge on their minds in this game in Palm Springs. Nevada is not shooting it well and that will be the difference this afternoon.

3 Unit Play. Take #776 Michigan +2.5 over Gonzaga (9:30p.m., Wednesday, November 26 TNT) Will gladly grab the points with Michigan in this Championship Game. The Wolverines are for real and they have played a challenging schedule thus far in 2025. The Bulldogs have also been impressive this season, but they have yet to be in a competitive game and that will allow the Wolverines to grind out this game late in the second half.

The Grizzlies have lots of dysfunction and bad karma, but the Pelicans are right there with them in that department, and they have a worse roster. Memphis should win this one going away. The Pels got a rare win last time out so they are probably content, as there are no expectations this year. Memphis has been a bit better with wins in two of their last three. They also have won five straight against New Orleans. They have covered in six of the last eight meetings.

The Hawks need this game for any chance in the NBA Cup and they need to score in case of any tiebreakers. They have the perfect team to do this all against as the Wizards are likely the worst team in the NBA this season. They are 1-15 SU and only 4-12 ATS despite some very generous spreads. The Hawks have won the last two meetings by double digits, and we expect more of the same here tonight. Atlanta has had some trouble covering against bottom feeder teams, but they have lots of motivation tonight and there will be no letdown.

3 Unit Play. Take #668 Baylor over St. Johns (4:30p.m., Tuesday, November 25 Tru TV) The Bears are coming off a victory over Creighton on Monday and I feel they are getting too many points in this game. I am not as high on this Red Storm team this year as others are and feel they are overrated. They lost a hard fought game on Monday to Iowa State by one point and I believe that will take something out of them in this game.

3 Unit Play. Take #870 Maryland -2 over UNLV (11:59p.m., Monday, November 24 TNT) Neither one of these teams is very good this season, but I trust Buzz Williams much more as a coach compared to Josh Pastnor. UNLV already has losses to Ut Martin and Montana this season and they have never done well in neutral site games taking place in Las Vegas.

Love the Knicks in this spot. This is a rivalry game so if both teams bring their best, the Knicks should win going away. This isn’t a tough road game for New York, and the Knicks had a comfortable night last night with limited travel. The same can’t be said for the Nets, who played in Toronto on Sunday and now will play their third game in four nights, and they have been on the road for the last two games. Brooklyn has been playing better overall, but this team doesn’t have great depth so they should be very fatigued tonight. The Knicks will be pissed after losing last time out at Orlando, and they have dropped two of three, so they should be focused and ready against an overmatched Nets team. The Knicks have great depth and should not miss Shamet too much tonight. Before this bumpy ride recently that saw them lose two to Orlando and one to Miami, they were playing as well as any team in the NBA and covering a lot of spreads, and we think we should see that version of the Knicks tonight. These teams played earlier in the month at MSG and the Knicks won easy, 134-98. They have covered three of their last four visits to Barclays center, and we think they win this one by 20+.

Kawhi Leonard is expected to play today for the Clippers. Will he be effective after a long absence? He has in the past, but he isn’t getting any younger and he may need some time to gel with the team. Overall this team has had a lot of chemistry problems to start the season. That’s why they are out of the playoff picture and even behind the Utah Jazz, who were expected to be one of the NBA’s worst teams. They have also been a nightmare for bettors. We had them Saturday against the Hornets, but this is a big step up in class and the B2B’s are tough for the oldest team in the NBA. Cleveland has won three of four and is playing well, and we think they will pull away late for a double digit win.

4 Unit Play. Take #306628 Georgia Washington -6 over McNeese (5p.m., Sunday, November 23) This game is from the Cayman Islands Classic. McNeese is not the same team this year without their key players and Coach Will Wade. The Revolutionaries are 5-0 this season and only one of those games was competitive.

The Clippers may be the death of us this season as we have backed them quite a bit and they keep failing, but the value keeps getting better and we just don’t see how they lose this one. It’s very early in the season but this almost seems like a must win game. The Clippers have a winning streak against the Hornets that stretches back years. The Hornets have been just as bad as the Clippers (identical records) but they have played a much easier Eastern Conference schedule. We think LA circles the wagons here today and scores a massive win.

3 Unit Play. Take #306558 Le Moyne +1.5 over Fairfield (1p.m., Saturday, November 22) These are two similar teams, but the Dolphins are undefeated at home this season. The Stags are coming off back-to-back close wins and I see their luck running out on Saturday.

We have been handicapping NBA for more than 25 years, and back in the day we would automatically take the points on spreads this big. But oh, how times have changed. And we have never seen a team like OKC, who are probably going to be a dynasty in the modern era. This team is stacked from top to bottom and they have capable players that can step in and perform even if the team has a rash of injuries. They don’t overlook bad teams and they play well on the road as well as at home. They want to add the Cup to their trophy case, so they should bring their A Game here. They have won by 20+ in both of their last two visits to Utah. Utah has lost their two Cup matchups so far by a total of 62 points. We see another blowout here.

The Clippers have won only one of their last nine, but this team is playing better as indicated by their run of three consecutive covers on this road trip. This team hasn’t started well, but we have to remember they were considered a championship contender when the season started. They still have that talent on the court, even though Kawhi Leonard has predictably been injured and they haven’t played well overall. But we have seen signs. And we feel this line is just begging for Orlando money, and that is where most of the public have been unloading their bets so far. The Magic have been playing well lately. But if you look at the recent games they didn’t play their best, those were against bad teams like Brooklyn and Portland. The Clippers probably fall into that category now as a team that isn’t considered a threat, so this could be a team the Magic overlook, especially with the Knicks, Celtics and Sixers on deck for them. It’s still early in the season, but LA has dug themselves a big hole and they have to start winning games before their playoff aspirations evaporate completely. As of now they are out of even the play-in tournament. This seems like a bigger game for the Clippers, and we like the heart we have seen from them lately. We expect a close game here, so take the points.

3 Unit Play. Take #750 Memphis +15.5 over Purdue (6p.m., Thursday, November 20 CBS Sports Network) Memphis is poorly coached but they have talent and I believe that they can cover this spread. Playing on a neutral site in the early evening I would expect both teams to come out a little cold and feel this game will see Purdue just go through the motions and win it by 10-12 points.

Dallas is just a mess right now and this team has bad karma written all over it. We get the feeling things will get a lot worse before they get better. When a rookie is your best player, there are issues. Their only wins in their last 10 are against Portland and Washington, and they haven’t been covering like a sneaky ATS team as you would expect despite some generous odds from the bookies. The Knicks have lost two of three, but those were at Miami and to Orlando. The Miami loss was by a bucket. So, no harm there. But we just think that makes the Knicks play very hard tonight, because two of three isn’t a huge problem, but three of four is an official slump. So the Knicks will be on their A Game here, and those two losses are the only games in the last eight that New York hasn’t covered.

4 Unit Play. Take #690 Marquette over Dayton (7:30p.m., Wednesday, November 19 Tru TV) The Golden Eagles are coming off a bad loss last time out at home to Maryland, but I expect them to bounce back against Dayton tonight at Fiserv Forum. It is hard to get a good read on the Flyers since they do not have any quality wins this season and lost by 12 to Cincinnati. Marquette is the more desperate team and expect them to win this game by close to double digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #648 Stanford -20.5 over UL Lafayette (10p.m., Tuesday, November 18 ACCN Extra) The Cardinal have played a weak schedule thus far in 2025 and tonight should be no different. This is the weakest team that they have played this season, as the Ragin’ Cajuns are 1-3 with losses to Ball State, Tulane, and McNeese. I see them losing this game by 20+ points tonight at Maples.

Brooklyn started off the season as one of the worst defensive teams where the opponent could get a bucket almost every trip down the court, but Coach Fernandez called his team out on their defensive effort prior to the Toronto matchup and they have responded with three straight excellent defensive efforts, allowing 119, 106 and 105 points in their last three games. Even though Boston is not an elite team this season, this is still the New York/Boston rivalry and a Boston visit to Brooklyn will be one of the bigger home games of the year so we expect the Nets to respond with another solid defensive performance. This could be a letdown spot for the Celtics, who have this game sandwiched between their last game against the Clippers and their next one against the Magic. Both of these teams are in the Bottom 10 offensively this season. Boston is the second ranked defense in the NBA for points allowed. We think this one should go well under the posted total.

4 Unit Play. Take #306518 George Mason -15.5 over Jacksonville (7p.m., Tuesday, November 18 ESPN+) George Mason will move to 5-0 on the season with a 20+ point victory tonight at EagleBank Arena. The Dolphins got blown out by High Point and Miami and the Patriots are better than High Point. George Mason has won by a variety of ways this season including winning by 17 points last time out scoring just 61 points.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. Take #617 Eastern Michigan +1.5 over Detroit (7p.m., Tuesday, November 18 ESPN+) The Eagles are Titans have just two combined wins. This low of a number is a true road game tells me the Eagles are the more talented team. Detroit does not play much defense and that will allow the Eagles to score at will in this game.

The Clippers are on a back-to-back and they expended a bunch of energy in the second half against Boston on Sunday and they fell up short in their big comeback. Kudos to them for not giving up, and for cashing our ticket on them to cover. But this team just looks very old overall and we don’t see them giving the effort to keep this one close after that game yesterday. Philly has some players out, but they have been one of the best bets in the NBA this season and they are always underrated by the oddsmakers. We were going to take them with anything under the key NBA number of 7, and the odds worked out perfectly. Kawhi Leonard remains day to day for LA, and they are so secretive about injuries, but we very much doubt he plays any time soon much less tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #801 St. Joseph’s over Penn (7p.m., Monday, November 17 ESPN+) The Quakers are rebuilding under new coach Fran McCaffrey and I see them struggling this season. They lost to American by 6 and I see them losing to the Hawks by around 8-10 points.

The Clippers have been one of the worst bets in the league and this is not a very good team right now with Kawhi out but we saw some things from them last time out in their OT win over the Mavs and now they could have some positive momentum heading into this one. Boston is only 5-8 ATS, so they have also been overrated by the oddsmakers. They have been alternating wins and losses for the last six games and are coming off a win last time out. This just boils down to this spread being too big and we expect a close game here and if not for the slow start LA would probably be favored here on the road.

2 Unit Play. Take #641 Pacific -6.5 over Cal State Fullerton (5p.m., Saturday, November 15 ESPN+) This is a straight fade against the Titans, as they have lost their last 2 games by double digits. The Tigers should be undefeated on the year and they are better than Fullerton on both sides of the court.

7 Unit Play. Take #886 Washington State over Washington (11p.m., Friday, November 14 ESPN+) This game means a lot more to Wazzou than it does to Washington. Since Washington left the PAC 12 (move the PAC 2), Washington State has been in exile for a couple of years and they want to make a statement in this game. The Cougars are predicted to be a top team in the WCC this season and I do not see them getting run out of their own building tonight in Pullman. The Cougars have held their won against the Huskies winning 6 of the last 10 meetings straight-up. Washington went 2-9 last season in true road games, and they will enter a hostile environment with a game I expect to go down to the wire.

Brooklyn has been getting favorable spreads all season long, yet they are 3-8 ATS. One of those rare covers was last time out, and we know because we were on them against the Raptors, and they covered with a three at the buzzer in garbage time in a game we thought we had lost. And their coach called them out for lack of defense before that game, but Toronto still put up nearly 120. This team might get it together later in the season and be a sneaky good ATS team, but right now they are a good team to go against in spots. In this NBA Cup matchup, we think Orlando will bring their A Game. They have a chance to win this whole thing, so this will be a crucial game for them and one they won’t overlook. After a slow start, they have won five of their last seven games, and they have covered in every win. They have also covered in five of the last six against Brooklyn.

Toronto has been playing some great defense lately, and we don’t see the Cavaliers going out and putting up a big enough point total to surpass this inflated total. Cleveland is on a back-to-back even though they rested some guys last night in their win over Miami. They have gone over in five straight (after four straight unders), and we think the bookies have inflated this number as a result. This could be a flat spot on a B2B, and Toronto won’t make things easy for them. Toronto has gone under in five of six, and they have held some good offensive teams to low point totals. This will be a high scoring game, no doubt, but we just think the number they posted is too high.

2 Unit Play. Take #750 Alabama over Purdue (7p.m., Thursday, November 13 ESPN2) I am not as high on Purdue this season and a lot of people are. Playing Alabama earlier in the season in a true road game will be a tough task for them. Alabama already has a quality win this season against St. Johns and Purdue struggled to put away Oakland, a team Michigan pounded earlier this season. Bama still shoots a lot of 3 point shots and I see them having fresh legs early in the season.

2 Unit  Play. Take #725 Over 143.5 in Long Beach State @ Pacific (10p.m., Wednesday, November 12 ESPN+) The Tigers are an improved team this year and should have beaten Nevada in Reno last time out. They scored 78 points in that game and if they do that again this game should go over the posted total. The Tigers are 80.5 points per game this season. The Beach has looked terrible in their first two games, but they are taking a step down in class for this game and I look for them to reach the low 70s in scoring for this game.

The Knicks are on a back-to-back, but we are not bothered by that. They barely broke a sweat in beating the Grizzlies last night for their fifth straight win and cover, and they got to sleep in their own beds last night after the game. New York has won and covered in four of the last five meetings. Orlando has been mediocre on the road, while New York is a perfect 7-0 at home. Just feel like the Magic are still figuring things out, while the Knicks look to already be in mid-season form.

The Nets have stunk this season but we thought this team would hold some betting value this season and this young team has the ability to improve and we think they will start to cover some spreads. Coach Fernandez called out the team publicly for lack of defense and we expect them to respond with a lot of effort tonight on the defensive side. Toronto is 5-5 ATS, so they have been average in that regard and just a couple games better than Brooklyn at covering. This sure looks like a letdown spot to us tonight considering they are coming off their big NBA Cup win over Atlanta and also their game against Philly (blowout loss). They have a massive game at Cleveland on Thursday and they are probably focused more on that one than the lowly Nets, who they know they can beat without giving 100 percent effort.

2 Unit Play. Take Moorhead State +29.5 over Clemson (7p.m., Tuesday, November 11 ACCN+) Lot of points for a go through the motions type of game for Clemson.

Atlanta have improved their defense with offseason moves and we think they are an under team until the oddsmakers adjust the totals downwards. They are 6-4 to the under and the under has hit in consecutive games and three of their last four. The Clippers play at the slowest pace by far in the NBA, and Chris Paul is notorious for slowly bringing the ball down the court as a floor general. These teams don’t meet often, but the under is 6-3-1 in their last 10. We think this number is a bit too high and we think there is a good chance that the Clippers play strong defense tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #306643 Over 147.5 in Lamar @ TCU (8p.m., Monday, November 10 ESPN+) TCU is a big favorite in this game after losing to New Orleans to open up the 2025-2026 season. They scored 104 points last time out against Saint Francis and I see them reaching at least 90 points in this game. That should put us in great position to collect with the over.

After Thursday’s debacle, the Clippers are close to being on our No Play list. But not yet. This situation sets up nicely as a revenge spot after their Clips lost bad in Phoenix on Thursday. Now this one is back in LA. The Clippers should have a better roster with Harden likely to return to the court after missing Thursday’s game for personal reasons. LA is almost in Must Win mode after a poor start to the season. We just think everything is pointing in the direction for the Clippers to score a massive win here.

We thought Brooklyn might be a scrappy team this season and maybe an ATS gem to cover some spreads when getting big odds. But they are just 3-5 ATS despite some very favorable lines from the oddsmakers. Their offense has been pathetic and their defense has looked even worse. Detroit is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now on a four-game win and cover streak. They have been playing lights out defense and have many players who can create opportunities on the offensive end. They have also covered six straight in this series.

7 Unit Play. Take #714 North Carolina -2.5 over Kansas (7p.m., Friday, November 7 ESPN) These two teams have a long history of coaching from one university that coached at the other. Neither team is as highly ranked as they usually are early in the season. This game is much more important to UNC, as they barely made the tournament last year and need a quality nonconference win. It is a home game for the Heels and they have a couple of key transfers that will help them in this game. Kanas is just not as strong as they usually are on paper and were not predicted to be a top 5 team in the Big 12 for the first time in my lifetime. Carolina will use the home crowd to pull away at some point in this game and win it by 8-10 points.

4 Unit Play. Take #306661 Over 149.5 in St. Francis @ TCU (8p.m., Thursday, November 6 TNT) Not sure why this game is on TNT but here we are with TCU losing their buy game to start the season against New Orleans. I see them winning this game and scoring points in the process to get out of their funk. The Red Flash gave up 102 points in their opening game to Oklahoma and expect this game to go over the posted total.

4 Unit Play, Take #664 Northern Iowa -9.5 over Cal State Northridge (8p.m., Thursday, November 6 ESPN+) The Panthers are one of the last teams to open up the college basketball season. They get to take on a very weak Matador team and should win this game by double digits. Ben Jacobson is still the head coach here entering his 20th season and this should be one of his better squads that can compete in the MVC.

4 Unit Play. Take #306650 Miami -16.5 over Bethune Cookman (7p.m., Thursday, November 6 ACCN Extra) Miami pulled away in the second half in their opening game and I see a similar occurrence on Thursday. They are playing another inferior opponent and this rebuild will be long but they need to accumulate wins against lesser teams.

2 Unit Play. Take #646 Under in North Dakota State @ UC Davis (9p.m., Wednesday, November 5 ESPN+) The Aggies generally play slow under longtime coach Jim Les. They were a bottom 50 offense last season scoring just 68 points per game. NDSU played much quicker than that last season but only scored 65 points in this game on Monday at Oregon State. See the under hitting again for them tonight in Davis, CA.

Houston has covered in six of the last eight meetings. We like them to win big here, likely by double digits. The Grizzlies have failed to cover in five straight games. This team just has a lot of bad karma around it with Ja Morant, and the locker room has to be bad vibes all around. Houston has looked really strong lately and has won four straight entering this one. They have covered in three of those. We love the history for Houston between these two teams and expect another big game from them tonight.

5 Unit Play. Take #627 Over in Louisiana Tech @ Nevada (10p.m., Tuesday, November 4 MWN) Nevada needs to push the pace much more this year and that has been a priority for Coach Steve Alford. Look for them to get up and down more in this game and for the both teams to come close to reaching the 70’s in points.

These teams already played late last month and this one went under but it was a real sloppy game and we remember it well because we were on the over for that one also. But we expect this one to be more clean as we are a bit into the season now and we envision a couple 60+ point quarters in this one, which should be enough to get us over the total. We also expect a competitive game and expect both clubs to get their share of the total. Orlando is pushing the pace and they have averaged 124 in their last two games and if they get close to that, this will be an easy cash.

The Clippers have covered in eight of ten meetings, including the last four, and they have won the last four SU also. The Clippers have been a little shaky to start the season but this team has championship-caliber talent and they will start to put together some wins and covers, and we like the matchups here for them tonight. Miami comes in on a B2B after playing the Lakers last night, where they were on the wrong end of a double-digit loss, and they probably wanted that game more than this one. The Heat don’t have great depth this year, so this is a really tough B2B for them tonight.

3 Unit Play. Take #852 Wisconsin over Campbell (8p.m., Monday, November 3 BTN+) Wisconsin did not play well last time out in exhibition play and I feel they will win this game by close to 30 points. Campbell is not a strong mid-major team and Wisconsin will use their size and strength to come out on top in a tune up game before the schedule gets much more difficult.

The Pelicans stink. But they will for sure get up to play the Thunder as OKC has a target on their back every game now. Their lines are inflated and they are only 2-4 ATS on the season after they covered more than 60 percent of their games last season. But we think this season they will have a much lower cover rate. They are also banged up at the moment. This team has depth, but we think they will not play as hard every game as they did last season. They start a road trip with the Clippers first on deck Tuesday, so they may be more focused on upcoming matchups.

We liked this total at the opening number of 223.5, and like it even more now with the line move. This game will be played at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. Dallas is dead last in the NBA for points per game and low on the list for field goal percentage. Anthony Davis will miss this game with a leg injury, so that won’t help out the Mavs much on offense. Dallas has finished two games under the century mark for scoring so far and had four games where they scored 107 or less. These teams are a combined 7-3 to the under, and the oddsmakers are posting the Pistons totals too high. We think this is the case again tonight. This game in Mexico City is out of the ordinary and takes players out of their normal routine, and that could affect both teams on offense as they are still trying to figure things out early in the season (these playoff hopefuls are a combined 5-5 to start the season). We don’t see the Mavs breaking out on offense here and the Pistons should go through enough cold spells where this one goes under the total.

It would be easy to look at the Magic’s 0-5 ATS record and think Charlotte is the play here. But not so fast. We went against Orlando last night in a much tougher game for them but we think this is a good chance for them to get back on the winning track. Orlando’s problem has been defense, and the Hornets have the same problem, so in a track meet we think the Magic come out on top. This team has great depth and young legs, so we don’t see the back-to-back affecting them much. Orlando has played a brutal schedule so far and Charlotte has played a bunch of cupcakes, so the Magic are very battle tested. We think this is a spot for a big win.

Both squads are off to mediocre starts but Detroit has looked better to us and the main problem with Orlando has been defense. They just can’t get the stops when needed and they haven’t been able to outscore their opponents on a regular basis. They seem to have a lot to figure out and are a work in progress. They are defiantly overrated by the oddsmakers, as they have failed to cover yet this season. Yet here we are, with the Magic favored on the road over a solid Detroit team. Detroit is 2-2 ATS and SU, and they have generally played well in every game but the last one. They lost by double digits to a Cleveland team that may be the best in the east, and Detroit just didn’t play well. They have a much better chance to bounce back for a big win here. Very nice value tonight with the home dog.

Golden State is coming in on a back-to-back after a tough game vs Memphis last night. Even though it is early in the season, a B2B is never easy. These players aren’t in mid-season shape yet. And teams expend tons of energy in any NBA game, so B2Bs matter even early. The Clippers have recovered after their awful performance in their first game at Utah where they were blown out of the building by one of the worst teams in the NBA. They have won their last two and looked pretty good doing it. They are one of the top teams in the Western Conference if they stay healthy, and they are quite a bit better than the Warriors in our opinion. The Clippers always bring their best against the Warriors. This is one of the Clippers one-way rivalries, like the Lakers, where Golden State has more traditional rivals they get excited to play. But LA has won seven straight and covered six straight in this series.

Orlando is running more this year and they have a lot of good players who can score. So we think the oddsmakers are a little show to raise their totals because of this team’s reputation as a defensive, half court squad. So the over will be a good play in spots early in the season. Philly has put up some high point totals in their first two games and both have gone over. We see a competitive game here and we expect both teams to get their share of the number.

San Antonio is looking like they could be the team that can threaten OKC’s supremacy in the coming years. They have amassed so much young talent and they have a player who if he stays healthy could be the best of all time. Just an amazing team and they will have their bumps in the road along the way but they are going to be on the right side of a lot of blowouts this year. It used to be unthinkable to take favorites over 10 points in the NBA on a regular basis, but there is a real talent disparity among some teams in the league, and this Sunday matinee is a perfect example of that. We think the Nets are underrated by the oddsmakers. But we think this is a bad matchup for them as well.

Orlando is playing at a faster pace and this young team can run and score. We were on them in their season opener against Miami that went 30+ points over the total. They went over in all four of their preseason games where they scored 120 or more, and they picked up right where they left off when the games started to matter with 125 in the win over Miami. You know Atlanta wants to run also. They went over in their season opener by almost 20 points, and they surrendered 138 to the Raptors in a poor defensive effort. We think they will keep pushing the pace on offense and they are confident in their scoring ability, so we don’t think they are going to change their strategy here in their second game. Both teams have guys who can score in multiple ways, and we wouldn’t be surprised if both teams top the 120 mark.

Miami will be moving faster this season. After being the top under team last year, we think the offense will open up this year. They went under in only one of six games in the preseason, with one push. Their last couple games were really high scoring, and we think that will stretch into the regular season. Another team that played in high scoring games in the preseason? That would be Orlando, who scored a lot in the practice games and they actually went over in all four games in the preseason. Their offense scored 120 or more in every game. We think this game will move a little faster than expected by the general public and we think this total is low because of the reputation of these teams instead of the actual reality of what we will see on the court tonight. These teams have gone over in seven of 10 meetings and four of the last five.

This is a great matchup for Opening Night and Houston is one of the few teams to have given OKC trouble in recent meetings. They have won two of the last four meetings and they have covered in three of the last four. Houston will look a little different this year. They lost Fred VanVleet to injury but they made some sharp offseason moves and we expect Kevin Durant to fit with this team nicely. OKC dominated last season but they will have a target on them every night and the lines will be inflated, which seems like the case here. We think this will be another close game and the Rockets cover on Opening Night.

The Thunder have seemingly taken over momentum of this series but this is still too many points. OKC has been a lousy ATS pick this playoffs after being one of the best ATS teams in history in the regular season, and the oddsmakers are shading their lines as a result. We truly believe that Indiana is taking this series one game at a time and playing without a ton of pressure as they were not even supposed to be here but OKC has more pressure as title favorites for most of the season. We expect a close game here!

We are going to go with the Pacers again. Indiana continues to be underrated by the oddsmakers despite the best overall performance in the postseason so far. The Thunder are 8-12 ATS in the playoffs and they continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. The Pacers aren’t a team that is going to take a game off, and they know they need to win this important Game 4, then they will have three chances to close out the series. Not sure if they will win outright, but we expect a close game.

The Thunder have not been good ATS in this postseason after being one of the top ATS teams of history in the regular season. But the playoffs is a different game and opponents have risen up their level of game and we think the Pacers have a great chance to keep home court advantage in this series and win outright. Each game is its own entity, so the Pacers have the ability to put Game 2 behind them and play much better here, as we have seen in the postseason when they have before faced adversity.

Just can’t pass up this number for Indiana with the way they have played this postseason. We had this line handicapped around 6.5 and would take the Thunder at that number, but this one is on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 (the point the losing team stops fouling at the end of the game), so nice value here in our opinion.

The Knicks haven’t looked good in this series and even in their win you felt like the Pacers lost that game more than the Knicks won it. This short Knicks bench just doesn’t match up with the Pacers, who have better depth. A great starting 5 like the Knicks has gets worn down in the playoffs if they don’t have a proper supporting cast, and we think the Pacers will likely win this one and close it out. If they don’t win, we still think it will be a close game.

We thought the Timberwolves had a great chance in this series and we expected the Thunder to slip up somewhere in the postseason but it is obvious that OKC is the better team and matches up well. They will give their home fans a gift tonight with a double-digit win to advance to the NBA Finals. The Timberwolves blew their chance in Game 4 and the final for that game looked closer than the game actually was.

The Knicks are right back in this series and they have shown they can win on the road this season. They have been one of the best road teams in the league this season and they have also win twice in a row in Indiana after their Game 3 win. We expect a close game but we think in the end the Knicks come out on top. We think this series has a great chance to go to seven games.

We like to take a good team off a bad loss and the Thunder certainly qualify tonight. They were down big and we just think they took a mulligan in that one to save their energy for Game 4 here. They can get a win here then have a close out game at home in Game 5. We took the Timberwolves in Game 3 as we thought they would have one strong game. But OKC has been pretty dominant in this series and we think they bring their A Game to not let this series slip away.

The Knicks are still in this series. They are 5-1 on the road in the playoffs this season. They need a win here to save their season, and we believe that the Knicks with their A Game will get a comfortable win tonight. Game 3 is crazy when a team is down 2-0 because a loss pretty much seals their fate while a win puts them right back into the series. We think the latter will happen and we will take the points over moneyline as insurance.

I would consider this almost a must win for the Knicks tonight. A two-game hole when you were the home team would be catastrophic. Indiana rallied in Game 1 for a shock win when the Knicks had a comfortable lead. New York got complacent and we just don’t think that happens again. It’s telling that the oddsmakers have made them an even bigger favorite in Game 2.

We will give the Wolves a mulligan for Game 1. We still think this team has a great chance in this series or at least to take it all the way to Game 7. Minnesota hasn’t lost much in these playoffs but in their two losses they bounced back to win and cover the next game. The Timberwolves have experience winning in OKC this season and they also have the players to make adjustments and have a much better showing than they did in Game 1. We see more of the first half Wolves here in Game 2 than the second half that let down and suffered a blowout.

The NBA Playoffs are a completely different game than the regular season. OKC stormed through the regular season with the best record in the league and they were one of the best ATS teams in league history and cashed tickets on better than 67 percent of their games. We kind of wondered what they were doing there down the stretch of the season as they were giving 100 percent every game when they already had the No. 1 seed locked up. We think Golden State taught the league a lesson in 2015-16 when they had the best regular season winning percentage of all time but didn’t win the title. Teams need to manage the regular season, especially down the stretch. They need to save energy, mentally and physically, for the postseason. Well, here OKC is in the Western Conference Finals, and kudos to them. But they haven’t looked like the same team that was rolling over everyone in the regular season. They are just 4-8 ATS so far in the playoffs. They let a pretty bad Memphis team, that shouldn’t have even been a playoff team, hang around in Games 3 and 4, and the Grizzlies covered both games. A Denver team that on paper looked much worse than the Thunder took them to seven games, and OKC was 2-5 ATS in that series. The Thunder don’t have a lot of playoff experience. This WCF is uncharted territory for them. Minnesota was here last year. OKC has a quick turnaround which will be a big benefit for the well-rested Timberwolves. Minnesota is a legit championship caliber team in our eyes. They are 8-2 ATS in these playoffs. Games 1s have been tricky this playoffs for the higher seed at home. Indiana beat Cleveland. New York beat Boston. Denver beat this OKC team. Golden State beat this Timberwolves team. The Warriors also beat the Rockets. We think this will be a close game but we think the Wolves have a legit chance for the outright win. The Wolves have covered four of the last five meetings, and they have won two of the last three visits to OKC. That includes an OT win in the last meeting in February, as Minnesota won outright as a 12-point dog.

We just see the Thunder coming up big here. They have superior depth in this matchup and this is the Nuggets second Game 7 of the playoffs, so they have been putting in some overtime. We just have to imagine that the Thunder will have a big game at home and they will circle the wagons so to speak after a poor showing in Game 6. We think we might see one of their best performances of the series here in Game 7, and we think they should win this one by double digits.

We will go with the moneyline here. New York has been the better team all series and the Celtics had a Next Man Up boost in Game 5 at home but the awful reality of losing Tatum will hurt them in this close out game on the road. With Tatum out, that thins out the Celtics depth and the Knicks have a starting 5 that will get the job done tonight.

The Thunder know that Minnesota is waiting for them and we think they give 100 percent effort to close this one out tonight. We originally liked Denver to give the Thunder a lot of trouble in this series and they did, extending this one longer than most expected. But OKC has captured all the momentum with consecutive wins and this is the most reasonable line of the series for the Thunder. They would have covered this line in all three of their wins in the series. We think they have figured the Nuggets out a bit and there will be a sense of urgency tonight to get it done here in Denver.

This is a close out game and we expect both teams to lock down on defense. We think it will be a team effort from Boston with Tatum out, and they will circle the wagons tonight. We don’t think it will be enough, as we think the Knicks have a great chance to win outright. They know the Pacers are waiting in the wings and they don’t want this series to drag on. So they need to get it done tonight, and their best chance of that is on the defensive end. We expect a close, low scoring game. And as long as it doesn’t go to OT, we think this total will cash easy.

Denver has been competitive in every game in this series except Game 2 where they got down big early and threw in the white flag to conserve energy for Game 3, which they proceeded to win. They had been coming off a grueling 7-Game series against the Clippers and we can give them a mulligan for that game. Overall we think the Thunder are a bit overrated in the playoffs due to their regular season results. The playoffs is a different animal entirely. And Denver has been playing some of their best basketball of the season in the playoffs. They know what it takes to win this series. We don’t know if they will win it, but they should play another hard fought game here and we expect this one to be a close one.

We had Minnesota in Game 3 and they lost by the hook on a garbage three at the end of the game. That one came after a missed shot and an offensive rebound from the Warriors. Minnesota played pretty bad in that game and they still should have covered. We expect to see a better performance here as they don’t want this series to go on for too long. They are a much better team with Curry sidelined. They have all the momentum in this series after losing Game 1 and they have the chance to close this series out in Game 5 at home with a win here. We get the feeling we might see the best game of the series so far from the Wolves, and it seems that the Warriors might have given their last gasp in Game 3, and it still wasn’t enough.

Besides Game 2, where Denver had already secured home court advantage in the series and let the game get away from them early, the Nuggets have controlled this series. This is no longer the regular season where OKC can just roll over disinterested teams, and the Nuggets are a real threat to win this series and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season in the playoffs. Game 3 went to OT where the Nuggets pulled ahead for the win, and we think this will be another close game.

The Warriors did not look good without Curry in the lineup. With Klay gone and Curry out, the Warriors just don’t have that clutch aspect that they had during the prime of their dynasty. They have some have some good players but Butler hasn’t had time to acclimate to the team in the way that he can be a true leader. That takes at least a full season. We think there is a good chance that Minnesota will be the West’s representative in the Finals this year and we think they will make a statement here and reclaim home court advantage.

Even though Denver suffered a very embarrassing defeat in Game 2, they didn’t need to win that game. They accomplished their goal in the first two games, splitting and stealing home court advantage. They obviously didn’t play like Game 2 mattered much, and after they got down a decent amount they gave up. But overall Denver has played some of their best basketball of the season in the playoffs and they came up big when they needed to against the Clippers in the first round. This is a crucial game and we think they will show up here and give 100% effort.

We think the side and the total here are overreactions to the Curry injury. So the bookmakers expect the Warriors only to score about 90 points here? Normally other players step up when a star goes down, especially in the first game after that happens. With such a low total, these points for the underdog count more than if the total was 240. Minnesota didn’t look like a team that could blow anyone out right now after their Game 1 performance, one of their worst games of the season. We do think they will shoot better, however, and we think Golden State will play better than expected.

Denver’s Game 1 win was no fluke. This team is playing its best basketball of the season right now, and they have to be feeling confident after winning two straight in OKC now. When a big underdog wins Game 1, the line usually inflates as it has here for Game 2, but we think it should have gone the other way as we saw how good Denver is playing now. We said OKC would face some adversity in the playoffs and now is that time. We just don’t see this team responding well to the first pressure they have faced and recording a blowout here. We see another close game.

Denver is coming in playing some of their best basketball of the season. They swatted away a Clippers team that was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and had come into that series playing amazing on offense. They won Game 7 120-101 in a game that wasn’t even nearly that close. They are playing great on both sides of the ball and the role players have elevated their games to help out Jokic. We always thought that the Thunder would face some adversity in the playoffs. They got an easy first round opponent and one they had dominated for a long time. But this team doesn’t have a lot of postseason experience and they have been off for a long time so could be rusty. Things have gone too easy for this team and we think we will see a lot of fight from Denver tonight.

5-Unit Play Take Cleveland -8 over Indiana (6 p.m. EST, Sunday May 4)

The Pacers looked good against the Bucks but they now face a huge step up in competition here. The Cavs are the much better team and they are rested and healthy. They are one of the best ATS teams this season and they will want to make a statement in Game 1. We think the Pacers will be more competitive as the series goes on, but we see a blowout in Game 1 as we think Indiana is walking into a buzzsaw today.

We have always liked the Clippers for the series and will go with them for Game 7. We think it will be a close game but LA is the better all around team and they will do what it takes to win this one. We think both teams will get their share of the total, as these games have been generally highs scoring and this is the lowest total of the series.

The home team has won every game in this series except for Game 1 when the Warriors got a leg up in this series and we think that will continue tonight. Everyone saw the Game 5 beatdown in Houston. Bettors want to jump on the Rockets here. The core of the Warriors has all the experience and they have closed out many a team at home in their careers. They know what need to be done here. Houston seems a year away and a couple more pieces from being a serious threat. We think there is a great chance that the Warriors are firing on all cylinders here and that they win this one by double digits.

The Pistons played well in Game 5 and staved off elimination but we think that was their last gasp and we don’t see the Knicks letting this one get to Game 7. This should be another close game but New York is the much better team and they will find a way to get it done. They won both games here in Detroit, so the atmosphere won’t faze them. And Game 5 was a wakeup call for them. They didn’t play well but were still within striking distance of a win. We see a very focused effort tonight, and the Knicks should have one of their better games of the series. They know they need to avoid Game 7 with tougher opponents on the horizon, and we don’t see them slipping up again.

We have liked the Wolves all series and think they will challenge for the win to close this one out. They match up well with the Lakers and they have now won five of the last seven meetings. The West is so competitive this season that it is crucial to close series out as soon as possible for extra rest and injury avoidance. Minnesota has an elite defense, which they will lean on here. The Lakers are a bit overrated, and we think this line is very public leaning.