The Lakers have a couple key players on the injury report but should mostly be at full strength here. There could be a line move depending on injury updates, but we think this one will go well over the posted number. The Magic are really clicking on offense right now and they are playing their best offensive basketball of the season by far. This team has been an Under machine for most of the season, where they struggled to reach the century mark on the scoreboard night in and night out. But they have scored 108 or more in eight of their last nine games. They have gone over 110 in six of those games, and over 120 in two, including last time out against the Wizards. Orlando has picked up their pace of play, and they have been playing with real confidence on the offensive end. Seven of their last 11 games have gone over the posted number as a result. The Lakers are trending to the over, as six of their last eight have gone over the posted total. They allowed 146 last time out in a loss to the Bulls. They have been putting up 115 or more on offense on a regular basis lately. These teams put up 230+ in the last meeting in November. That was a close game, and we expect this one to be as well. Overtime is not out of the question. Five of the last six meetings have surpassed this total. We think the oddsmakers are a little behind on the way this Magic offense has improved, and as a result there has been value in their overs in recent games.

4 Unit Play. Take #868 Kentucky over Illinois (5:15p.m., Sunday, March 23 CBS) Just not buying the love Illinois is getting from the odds makers. They rallied for some nice wins to close out the regular season but got killed by Maryland in the quarterfinals of the Big 10 Tournament. I do not believe they are great in any area and their defense is not strong this season. When they lose, they tend to get blown out and I see Kentucky dominating this game for start to finish. Kentucky is getting healthier, and this is an important game for Coach Pope to show they are moving in the right direction. They played in the SEC and I see more battle tested in this game. They shoot it well from the arc and are due for some ATS wins in the NCAA Tournament. Lamont Butler will play better in his second game back.

7 Unit Play. Take #860 Florida -9 over Connecticut (12:10p.m., Sunday, March 23 CBS) It ends today. The back-to-back champions will flame out on Sunday against the last team to go back to back. The Huskies just do not have the firepower to stay in this game and Florida will go on a run at some point and win it easily. The Gators played in the toughest conference in the country and blew out Tennessee and Alabama last week. The Gators are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games. They did not cover the spread in the round of 64 but will cover the spread in the round of 32. UCONN lacks high end talent, explosiveness, and experience. It will come crashing down on Sunday and we will back the best team in the league.

We like what we have seen from the Bucks lately and they have covered in four of their last six games. This team has seen its share of ups and downs over the course of the season, but they have been playing playoff-quality basketball recently. They have a strong history here as they have won nine of 10 meetings, and these teams don’t play often so that streak stretched back many years.

4 Unit Play. Take #828 Wisconsin over BYU (7:45p.m., Saturday, March 22 CBS) We have rode Wisconsin for much of the season and feel this is the year Greg Gard and company can break through and reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017. They match up well with BYU and feel that the only advantage the Cougars have is that they have played at altitude more frequently. BYU shoots a lot of three-point shots and they will have to make a bunch in order to win this game. Wisconsin struggles with tall post players and their defense has improved during the second half of Big 10 play. Look for them to guard the arc and make BYU beat them inside. I do not believe that they will be able to do that.  

All the sudden the Clippers are looking like a championship caliber ball club. If they keep playing like this and enter the postseason healthy, this is going to be a team no one in the west will want to match up against. They have won seven of eight and covered in six of those games. They have had two days rest after absolutely decimating the Cavs at home on Tuesday. Memphis has been one of the best ATS teams this year but has covered in only two of their last 10. They have been overvalued by the oddsmakers and have not matched their early season play. They are also banged up, while the Clippers are healthy.

10 Unit Play. Take #779 Baylor over Mississippi State (12:15p.m., Friday, March 20 CBS) The Bulldogs got off to a fast start but faltered down the stretch losing 5 of their last 7 games. Playing in the SEC takes its toll and I do not feel Mississippi State will have much left for the tournament. Baylor is well coached, and I like their style of play for the NCAA Tournament. They are battle tested as well and played a difficult nonconference schedule. They beat St. Johns and half of their 14 losses have come by 4 points or less. Coach Drew has won 6 straight opening round games (5-1 ATS) and the Bulldogs have not won an NCAA Tournament Games since 2008.

Every now and then the Raptors have a bad game where they get run out of the building. That is pretty rare though as this team puts up a fight almost every night. So after a 40-point blowout in Phoenix last time out, we feel we will see a much better effort from this team. Toronto has had a couple days off since that loss and have two days off after this, so they can give max effort here tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #770 Under in UC San Diego vs Michigan (10p.m., Thursday, March 20 TBS) Michigan looked dead tired in the Championship Game of the 2025 Big Ten on Sunday and expect that to be a carryover effect into this game on Thursday. We will side with the under, as UCSD is a defensive oriented team that holds most of their opponents into the 50s. Everyone likes the underdog, but we will focus on the under in this game.

2 Unit Play. Take #765 Drake over Missouri (7:35p.m., Thursday, March 20 TruTV) This is unfamiliar territory for Missouri, and I do not see them blowing out one of the best mid-major teams in the country. The Tigers did most of their damage at home this season and this will be at a neutral site in Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, KS. Drake also has the best scorer on the floor in Bennett Stirtz and a 30-3 record. They are close by as well and should bring a big crowd. Take the points as the Tigers have only made the second round once since 2011.

2 Unit Play. Take #773 Over in VCU vs BYU (4:05p.m., Thursday, March 20 TNT) Both teams have their moments when they can get up and down the court and I expect BYU to be able to control the pace of the game. The Cougars have gone over this posted number in 3 of their last 4 games. Teams tend to play it out in the NCAA Tournament with fouls even though the have no chance to win and that will be the case on Thursday.

2 Unit Play. Take #721 Northern Iowa over SMU (9p.m., Wednesday, March 19 ESPN2) We will grab the points tonight with a well-coached Panthers team that is happy to be in the NIT. SMU is coming off a tough loss to Clemson last time out and I expect there to be a carryover into this game for the Mustangs.

3 Unit Play. Take #683 Over in Cal State Northridge @ Stanford (11p.m., Tuesday, March 18 ESPN2) I always like to play the over in NIT games, as often coaching in less restrictive and they just let they players go up and down the court and have fun. Northridge has been scoring a bunch of points of late, and this game should reach the 160s in points.

As of this writing Tatum is questionable for the Celtics and Brown is out, so Brooklyn should be able to stay within double digits here. Every game from here on out is basically a must win for the Nets, who are well outside the play in tourney at the moment. Brooklyn has covered in four of their last five games and they have been exceeding oddsmaker expectations. These teams just played in Brooklyn and the Nets almost won. We think this will be another close game.

Any bet against Washington is a good one, and the Nuggets should roll in this one. We see no reason they don’t win this one by 20+. The Wizards have been given generous spreads all season yet they have a terrible ATS record and this squad is blown out on a regular basis. They are Fat and Happy, as we say, after a win over Detroit last time out in a quick revenge spot. They earned their night off tonight, and we don’t expect to see the same effort.

2 Unit Play. Take #609 Wisconsin over Michigan State (1p.m., Saturday, March 15 CBS) Wisconsin collected for us yesterday in blowout fashion with our Conference Tournament Game of the Year. We will ride the hot hand tonight again, as I expect this game to go down to the wire with Wisconsin edging out the victory. The Badgers beat Purdue last year in the semifinals and feel they will ride that wave to a victory on Saturday.

Orlando has failed to reach the century mark in two of the last three meetings. Whenever they take the court, it’s possible they don’t reach 100 points. And this certainly looks like one of those games where they will fail to do so. They come in on a back-to-back and they put up 113 in a game vs. the Pelicans where New Orleans didn’t play much defense. Now they face a Minnesota club that will lock down on the defensive end. And this looks very much like a flat spot for the Magic, a team without great depth. After a string of a few overs, Orlando has gone under in two straight, and we think the trend will continue. The only chance the Magic have here as a double-digit dog is to slow the game down as no team but them can do, with the slowest pace in the league. Minnesota held Denver to 95 last time out, and we think we could see another defensive masterpiece from them tonight.

7 Unit Play. Take #815 Wisconsin over UCLA (2:30p.m., Friday, March 14 BTN) Wisconsin has a game their belt in Indianapolis and got whole yesterday with two players back from injury. UCLA will come in cold and I feel Wisconsin will get up early and control the game. Wisconsin is the better offensive team and has revenge on their minds from losing at Pauley.

2 Unit Play. Take #782 Colorado State over Nevada (9p.m., Thursday, March 13 CBS Sports Network) Nevada suffered another injury on Thursday and I don’t think they have much left in the tank for this game. They will battle early but they have yet to defeat a top team in the MWC this season.

These teams played here on Tuesday, and the Pistons won in a blowout. It’s very hard to have the same result over one team in consecutive games. Washington is a terrible team. But they are now very familiar with these Pistons from the recent meeting and they will make some adjustments tonight. It’s telling that after Detroit covered on Tuesday that this line is smaller than the closing line in the last meeting. The sharp play here is the Wizards.

2 Unit Play. Take #780 San Diego State over Boise State (5:30p.m., Thursday, March 13 CBS Sports Network) The Broncos have not had much success in this tournament and I am surprised they be came the favorite in this game. Both teams are fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and the Aztecs have had much more success in Las Vegas compared to the Broncos.

2 Unit Play. Take #739 Marquette over Xavier (2:30p.m., Thursday, March 13 Peacock) I am not ready to give up on the Golden Eagles during postseason play. Marquette faded down the stretch, but they are still the more talented team in this matchup.

4 Unit Play. Take #685 Butler over Providence (4p.m., Wednesday, March 12 Peacock) Just feel Butler is the more healthier team for this rubber match between two bad teams. Providence has won just one game since February and all of this losing has taken its toll on them. Butler is a streaky team and it would not surprise me if they make a little noise in this tournament.

We are big fans of what they are doing in Detroit and the way this team has been playing. However, we don’t think they are ready to lay this type of spread. They are coming off a four-game West Coast road trip and the first game back home can be tricky as players navigate personal lives. The focus might not be there for this game. Washington recently played a double set like they will against Detroit (these teams play again Thursday). Washington won the first game against Toronto before suffering a blowout in the second game. We think we might see the same pattern here.

These teams played yesterday and the Thunder laid a beat down but it’s not only hard to beat the same team on consecutive days but also hard to score a blowout in consecutive games. Not to mention that the Thunder don’t have much to play for down the stretch with the No. 1 seed well in hand. Denver has been playing well lately overall and they should be focused here. We always state revenge is an overrated handicapping aspect in pro sports. But it does come into play in situations like this, where the loss is still fresh on the losing team’s mind.

Minnesota has been overrated by the oddsmakers all season and this line looks inflated as well. Could the Timberwolves run the Spurs out of the building tonight? Sure. But we think San Antonio can keep this one within double digits. The Spurs suffered an embarrassing loss at Sacramento last time out where the team didn’t give full effort, so they will probably be more motivated to play hard here. San Antonio has covered in six of the last seven meetings, and we expect that trend to continue here.

2 Unit Play. Take #805 Over in Bradley vs Drake (2:10p.m., Sunday, March 9 CBS) This might be a winner take all game, as the MWC has fallen off the map in terms of NCAA relevance. Both teams will play it out to the end and foul if they are down and thus I expect the total to reach the 120s.  

We are basically always going to look closely at a home dog getting this many points. The game can be a blowout and we can still cover. The Hornets have been pretty good recently when getting double digit points. Maybe they check the lines and don’t want to be disrespected. Whatever the case, we think they will want to put up a fight tonight. The Cavs have covered only one of their last three. That isn’t too crazy, but this team is covering at a high rate this season. But they are playing their third game in four nights and they have Milwaukee on deck on Sunday, so they might not give full effort here in a game they don’t need to in order to win.

2 Unit Play. Take #866 North Dakota State -2.5 over South Dakota (7p.m., Friday, March 7) We will side with the traditional top half team in the Summitt in North Dakota State on Friday in this quarterfinal game in the 2025 Summit Conference Tournament. The Bison won both games this season by a combined 30 points including winning in South Dakota by 26 points.

It seems as if the Jimmy Butler trade has paid off for the Warriors and they are playing as well as any team in the league right now. They have won and covered in seven of their last eight. They have scored double digit road wins in three of their last five away from home, and those wins were over the Knicks, Hornets and Kings. Two of those were playoff clubs. It seems obvious that the Nets won’t make the play-in tournament and this team is fading down the stretch. They have lost five straight coming into this one. They have lost their last three games by a combined 54 points, and none of these teams were nearly as good as the Warriors. Brooklyn is one of those strange cases where they have played better on the road than at home this season. The fans haven’t had much to cheer about, and most in the building tonight will be there to see the Warriors stars in person. Brooklyn has given up 120+ in three of their last four, and that is not a good sign against a Warriors team that has been playing extremely well offensively.

2 Unit Play. Take #806 Omaha -3.5 over UMKC (7p.m., Thursday, March 6 Flo Sports) UMKC has been a major underachiever this season and they will be knocked out by the No. 1 seed in the Summit League Thursday night. The Mavericks have beaten Roos twice this season by a combined total of 31 points. UMKC is still getting too much respect from the odds makers, they are just not that good in 2025.

The Clippers are quickly falling out of the playoff picture due to a recent string of bad play. We don’t have much positive analysis for them here other than a gut feeling that they will circle the wagons tonight and at least give a massive effort on defense. If they had been playing better this would just be another game, but this now seems like one of the more important games of the season, especially after blowing a huge lead at Phoenix last night and losing that game. This does seem like an inflated spread and we think this will be a close, low scoring game.

3 Unit Play. Take #712 Connecticut over Marquette (8:30p.m., Wednesday, March 5 FS1) Just do not feel Marquette is strong this year and they struggle to matchup with UCONN. The Huskies need this game more since they want to get off the 8/9 for seeding. They already won in Milwaukee by 8 points and that is how I see this game going as well.

2 Unit Play. Take #655 New Mexico over Nevada (9p.m., Tuesday, March 4 CBSSN) Just feel Nevada is out of gas this season and does not have the scorers needed to beat the top teams in the MWC. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games including a blowout loss to rival UNLV last time out. New Mexico cannot afford any more losses if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They need this game and will get it by 6-8 points.

Wins have been hard to come by for San Antonio and this team received a blow when Wemby was ruled out for the season. But that shock has passed and the Spurs still have a decent team. This is definitely a winnable matchup for them and we expect them to take care of business tonight. The Nets have suffered consecutive blowouts. They haven’t stayed within this number in any of their recent losses. The Spurs have won and covered in the last two meetings and three of the last four. Not sure what the motivation level will be for this Nets team tonight, but we are confident that the Spurs need a win and they should play hard in front of the home fans tonight.

Even though the Blazers are on a back-to-back, we still think there is nice value here as we had this game closer to PK. Portland has the look of a team on the rise and this team won’t be tanking to finish off the season. They want to build some momentum heading into next year. They have won four of five and they played a very strong game in Cleveland on Sunday in a close loss. Philly is a walking infirmary ward right now and this team has real low morale at the moment. No bet against them is a bad one right now.

3 Unit Play. Take #817 Wisconsin +4.5 over Michigan State (1:30p.m., Sunday, March 2 CBS) These are two of the top teams in the Big 10 Conference. Wisconsin has won 3 straight games in East Lansing, and I see them being able to take this game down to the wire. Wisconsin has the better offense in this game and if Crowl can hold up down low I like Wisconsin’s chances.

Golden State has won and covered the last four meetings. This team is just steamrolling the league right now, and we don’t see that stopping tonight. The Warriors have won and covered in seven of eight overall, and their offense is really efficient right now and their defense is creating a lot of extra opportunities. Morale in Philly is at an all time low. They lost Embiid for the season and they have lost nine straight and covered in only one of their last 10. This team is already several games out of the play in and now it will be tanking time for the remainder of the season. We don’t expect them to put up much of a fight here against an out of conference foe.

2 Unit Play. Take #655 Seton Hall +20 over St Johns (2:15p.m., Saturday, March 1 CBS) The Red Storm will come out tight, as they are playing for a regular season conference championship. The metrics do not like them as much as their record and to me that says they are high in the luck factor this season. Playing a rival will keep this game under 20 points. This line has been coming down all morning and I see them being around a 12-15 point victory.

2 Unit Play. Take #890 Purdue -5.5 over UCLA (8p.m., Friday, February 28 FOX) Purdue has been in free fall at the moment and will enter this game having lost 4 straight games. Sooner or later, they will break out of this funk and tonight will be that night. UCLA is not used to this environment.

Detroit has been playing great basketball but the line value seems to be gone with them now laying points to Denver. These teams don’t play often, but Denver has won and covered in four straight meetings. They will have extra motivation tonight since Detroit is on a big winning streak, and it is always a confidence boost for a team to snap a streak like that. Denver has lost two of three but we think that just gives them extra motivation here to snag the win.

2 Unit Play. Take #847 Over in St Mary’s @ LMU (11p.m., Thursday, February 27 CBSSN) The Gaels are ranked and coming off an impressive victory over Gonzaga last weekend. They are coming off 4 straight games of scoring at least 73 points and if they hit that number on Thursday we should be able to collect with the over. 137 points were scored in the first meeting between these two teams on January 7.

These teams have gone under in three of the last four meetings, including one earlier this month in the Bay Area, a 104-99 Warriors win. We see no reason this one won’t be a similar scoreline. Golden State has been putting up a lot of points lately, but Orlando is an old school style team and they play at the slowest pace in the league and they put up sub-100 scorelines on offense on a regular basis. The Magic have gone under the total in six straight games and we think they will do a great job of slowing the Warriors down. They allowed 122 to Cleveland last time out and that was an unacceptable defensive performance for this team. We think they make some adjustments here and play a much better defensive game against the Warriors. And while the Warriors are known for their offense, this is also a strong defensive team. There is a very good chance we could see the Magic end up under the century mark in this February rematch.

2 Unit Play. Take #738 Butler over St. Johns (9p.m., Wednesday, February 26 CBS Sports Network) Still not a believer that St Johns has fixed their offense and we will fade them hoping the third time is the charm. Butler has played much better of late and will enter this game at Hinkle Fieldhouse having won 4 of their last 5 games. I feel they can take this one down to the wire in what will likely be a low scoring game.

The Blazers always seem to play well here. In fact, they have won and covered in five straight visits. We expect more of the same tonight. We really like this Blazers team. They have some amazing talent and they play hard on a nightly basis. This is a team that is probably not going to make the play in tournament this season but they are still going to play hard down the stretch and they are a team we are buying into. The Wizards are just outright a bad team and they are likely tanking a bit for the remainder of the season. This team is by far the worst team in the NBA, and they have a horrible ATS record despite very generous odds from the bookmakers.

2 Unit Play. Take #663 Over in Wyoming @ Nevada (10p.m., Tuesday, February 25 MWCN) The Cowboys give up points and that should allow this Nevada offense to reach the high seventies in points and hit with he over.

2 Unit Play. Take #880 Nebraska over Michigan (8p.m., Monday, February 24 FS1) Michigan is coming off a brutal stretch of games and I think they will be due for a letdown in this game in Lincoln. Nebraska needs some quality wins if they want to make the NCAA Tournament and there is no better chance than facing one of the top two teams in your building.

Both teams are on a B2B but the Clippers get the worst of it with both games on the road. This road trip isn’t going well for Los Angeles, who haven’t looked the same since a horrible fourth quarter against the Bucks. They were blown out in Indiana last night and they will be missing a couple key players on the second end of this one. Detroit has won six straight and covered in eight of 10, and this team is very confident they can get the win tonight. They have covered in seven of the last eight meetings.

3 Unit Play. Take #811 Connecticut +4.5 over St. Johns (12p.m., Sunday, February 23 FOX) Connecticut has been better as an underdog this season compared to a favorite and I see them winning this game against an overrated St. Johns team. Connecticut will have a great crowd in the building, and they need it more since they already have 8 losses on the season. The Red Storm beat the Huskies last time out and UCONN will return the favor on Sunday.

2 Unit Play. Take #770 Duke over Illinois (8p.m., Saturday, February 22 FOX) Duke is hitting Illinois at the right time, as the Illinois have been reeling having lost two straight games via blowout fashion. Look for Duke to hand them their third straight double digit loss, as the Illini are still suffering from injuries up and down the bench.

2 Unit Play. Take #734 Alabama over Kentucky (6p.m., Saturday, February 22 ESPN) Alabama will enter this game having lost two straight games and needs to make a statement on Saturday against Kentucky. They will win it by double digits and keep their hopes alive for a No. 1 ranking.

2 Unit Play. Take #604 Wisconsin over Oregon (12p.m., Saturday, February 22 FOX) We will just keep riding Wisconsin until we are proven wrong on a consistent basis. The Badgers scored a top play winner for us on Tuesday in blowout fashion and I see this game being a double-digit victory as well. Oregon will not be able to keep pace with Wisconsin scoring wise.

This game is the second of a back-to-back for the Spurs played in Austin, down the road from their home in San Antonio. The Spurs got some horrible news yesterday that Wemby has been shelved for the season in his second season. This team was mediocre with him but they will be pretty bad without him. And it might make awhile for new addition De'Aron Fox to gel with his teammates. The Spurs played great on Thursday in their win over the Suns. But we saw them give a lot of effort there against a conference opponent, so we have to question not only their stamina here with a sudden lack of depth but also their motivation against a nonconference opponent. Oftentimes when a top player goes down, the rest of the team will step up for a game but there is no doubt losing Wemby hurts this team badly. Detroit has been playing excellent basketball and they are a legit playoff team in our eyes. This is their first game back after the break and they will have a lot of energy. We liked the Pistons here even before the news came out of San Antonio, and we like them even more now.

2 Unit Play. Take #885 Michigan State +3 over Michigan (8p.m., Friday, February 21 FOX) This line appears too low and thus I feel the smart money is on the visitor. These teams will meet twice before the end of the regular season and Michigan State needs this game if they have visions of winning the regular season crown.

As if the Bucks weren’t struggling enough with an underachieving season, news just came out that Bobby Portis was suspended 25 games for drug violations. This kind of distraction is the last thing the Bucks need, not to mention the hit it takes for their depth since you never know if their stars will suit up from game to game. We think the Clippers are a better team regardless, and this line indicates that Kawhi is likely to take the court tonight. The Clippers looked great heading into the break and we think they will continue right where they left off.  

2 Unit Play. Take #306603 Jacksonville over North Florida (8p.m., Thursday, February 20) Just do not feel North Florida is good enough to beat Jacksonville twice in the regular season. This is a rivalry game between two schools less than 10 miles apart and the Dolphins still have a chance to win the regular season championship should they win out in their last 3 games. The Dolphins have the better team and the best player on the floor in Robert McCray. That will be good enough to earn the victory on Thursday night.

2 Unit Play. Take #730 DePaul over St Johns (9p.m., Wednesday, February 19 FS1) The Red Storm are coming off 4 straight monster games and I feel they will have a letdown tonight with UCONN on deck. They are a defensive oriented team and thus will have trouble covering this big of a number. The Blue Demons have cover this number against UCONN, Villanova, and Marquette of late and should be able to keep this game around 8-10 points.

7 Unit Play. Take #636 Wisconsin over Illinois (8:30p.m., Tuesday, February 18 FS1) It is now or never when it comes to Wisconsin beating Illinois. The Illini have had good success beating the Badgers in recent years, but this is not the same team as in year’s past. Wisconsin is coming off two straight road wins and they are always a tough team to beat at the Kohl Center. The Badgers have a strong offense this year and the Illini do not play much defense. Illinois got blown out by Michigan State last time out and I see them losing this game by double-digits. Wisconsin has a revenge angle after losing to Illinois earlier this season and in the Big 10 Championship Game in 2024.

4 Unit Play. Take #620 Purdue -5.5 over Wisconsin (1p.m., Saturday, February 15 CBS) Purdue needs this game more and they are a different animal at home. Wisconsin only have one great win this season and most of their work has been done by beating the mid to bottom teams in the Big 10. Purdue did not get to the free throw line much this week at Michigan but look for that to change on Saturday. Purdue by double digits.

2 Unit Play. Take #891 Nevada over San Jose State (10p.m., Friday, February 14 FS1) This line might surprise you being this high, since Nevada is not that good, and it is a true road game. But San Jose Stat will likely be without two key players for this game and thus you get a touchdown spread. Nevada has beaten the bad teams this season and will enter having won 3 in a row playing their best game of the season last time out.

This is the last NBA game before the all-star break. Both teams are on a back to back and looked good on Wednesday, as the Jazz blew out the Lakers while the Clippers blew out the Grizzlies. But Utah doesn’t win often and we don’t see them replicating their play from last night. We have to figure that the Jazz are happy with their performance against the Lakers and ready for the All-Star Break, while the Clippers are dangerously close to slipping into the play in tournament section of the standings and need every win they can get. They are healthy and last night’s dominant win over the Grizzlies tells us this team is back playing well after some poor play to start the month. The Clippers match up well against the Jazz and have won five of the last six meetings. All those wins were by double digits, and four were absolute blowouts, including last Saturday, where the Clippers barely broke a sweat in a 20-point victory. LA has superior depth to handle the B2B even though Utah gets this one at home. But LA knows they have some time off coming up and should produce a strong effort tonight.

3 Unit Play. Take #794 South Dakota over UMKC (8p.m., Thursday, February 13) UMKC has been one of the most disappointing this season and I do not see them righting the ship on the road tonight. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games but did beat South Dakota earlier this season. Look for the Coyotes to get their revenge tonight at the Sports Center in Vermillion, SD.

Memphis has been tearing the league up with wins and a high cover rate, including a win and cover at Phoenix on Tuesday. But now they are on a very tough back-to-back against a rested Clippers team that matches up extremely well with them. Los Angeles hasn’t played since Saturday, when they scored a 20-point win over Utah. The Clippers have won four straight in this series and six of the last eight. Before that Utah game, the Clippers had a bad stretch of play, but it looks like they are back on track now, and this is a good matchup for them to keep the momentum going. LA also has a very high cover rate this season and they are quietly getting the job done on the court and at the betting window.

2 Unit Play. Take #686 Under in Iowa @ Rutgers (6:30p.m., Wednesday, February 12 BTN) Both of these teams are poor this season and we look for Rutgers to dictate the pace of this game since they are playing at home. The Scarlet Knights are 126th in the country in scoring this season and it has been even tougher for them to score during Big 10 play. I look for this game to be played in the seventies and thus the under will hit with whoever comes out on top.

The last two games for the Raptors show why they are a great squad to bet on this season. They lost to both Houston and OKC, and they had no real chance of winning those games. But they covered both of the matchups. This team doesn’t have big names and they are under the radar, but they play hard almost every night and they don’t give up until the final buzzer. That is why they have amassed a 31-21-1 ATS record. Philly is always overrated and has as a result struggled to cover too many lines (20-32 ATS). This looks like another matchup where the Raptors are underrated.

5 Unit Play. Take #618 Michigan over Purdue (7p.m., Tuesday, February 11 Peacock) Purdue is just not the same team when they play on a neutral or road site. They have a great homecourt advantage, but this is a game Michigan needs more. A win by the Wolverines will keep them atop the standings in the Big 10 and look for them to take advantage of their size in this contest. Michigan also has a revenge angle, as they were crushed by Purdue earlier this season. Look for them to bounce back.

2 Unit Play. Take #881 North Carolina over Clemson (7p.m., Monday, February 10 ESPN) Always risky taking North Carolina, but we will on Monday. Clemson is coming off a hard fought victory over Duke on Saturday and feel they could be a letdown for them in this spot. Thus we will grab the two field goals in this game, as Carolina has a remarkable all-time record against Clemson.  

Orlando has won two straight meetings and three of four, and all the wins came by 10 or more points. Orlando has only two wins in their last eight games. But they have just finished a six-game road set and the friendly confines of home should be good for this team as they are 15-9 on the season here at Kia Center. The Spurs haven’t been much better with three wins in their last 10, and this is a very tough road B2B after they lost in Charlotte last night as a double-digit favorite. Not only is this a B2B with both games on the road, but Orlando is a strong and physical defensive team that should wear the Spurs down late. Orlando has dealt with so many injuries this season but are relatively healthy now. We expect a strong showing from the home team tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #655 Over in North Dakota State @ Nebraska Omaha (2p.m., Saturday, February 8) Both teams have a ton of scoring punch. We will not worry about who covers the spread in this game and instead just focus on the total. 165 points were scored when these two teams met earlier this year on January 4. Omaha’s offensive stats are skewed when they were playing better teams earlier this season. They have scored at least 77 points in all of their games since December 16. This should be a game where fouling occurs at the end of this competitive game to bring the total into the 160s.

The Wizards have won and covered in three straight, so they will come in to this one with some confidence. Cleveland has pretty much been a covering machine this season but they have started to become overvalued as their shooting has cooled off a bit. They have covered in four of their last nine games. Washington has covered in three of the last four meetings, and they kept it to a 10-point deficit in a meeting in Cleveland in December. We are pretty much going to back any home team getting this many points.

5 Unit Play. Take #819 North Dakota State over UMKC (8p.m., Thursday, February 6) I always like using the Bison in Summit League Play. They are always a top team in the league and should be able to win this game by 6-8 points. The Roos have lost 6 straight games and that includes a loss to the Bison during this losing streak. They are just playing out the string of games and I see them struggling to win any of their remaining games.

2 Unit Play. Take #707 Rhode Island -1 over Fordham (7p.m., Wednesday, February 5 ESPN+) No bet against Fordham is a bad bet during A10 play. The Rams are 2-7 and are coming off a tough loss to St Bonaventure last time out. There will be a carryover effect into this game. Rhode Island got off to a hot start but has not been playing well of late. This is a get well game for them and expect a decisive road victory.

4 Unit Play. Take #633 Drake over Murray State (7p.m., Tuesday, February 4 ESPN2) Will not overthink this play, Drake is 20-2 and the best team in the MVC. Murray State is a bottom half team in the conference but they did beat Drake in Des Moines earlier this season. Revenge will be served tonight as the Bulldogs gets closer to the No. 1 seed and what may be a winner take all tournament.

The Pistons are on a back-to-back, but in our opinion they are being punished too much by the oddsmakers. They have been pretty solid in recent back-to-backs, and they are facing a Hawks team that is banged up, missing their best player, and in an absolute tailspin, having lost eight straight games. Detroit has been building some momentum and has won and covered in two straight, and this is a great spot for them to make it three in a row. They match up well with the Hawks and already have two wins against them this season. The most recent meeting was less than two weeks ago in Atlanta, a 10-point Pistons win. Atlanta had to rally big time in the fourth quarter with a 29-17 quarter just to make the final look respectable. In that game, Capela notched a double-double and him and Young combined for almost 30 points, and both players are likely to miss this game tonight. The lack of rest shouldn’t faze the Pistons and we expect a comfortable win tonight.

Milwaukee looked like they were back to playoff form with a stretch of solid play but now the injuries are piling up again and they were blown out in their last two games, to the Spurs and Blazers no less. Morant is likely out here for the Grizzlies, but they have proven they can get the job done with multiple rosters starting. They have won and covered six straight meetings.

It is always one of the biggest games of the season whenever the Lakers visit Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are the much better team and they will face a Lakers team that is very banged up at the moment. We don’t see anything other than a blowout here. The Knicks are rested and absolutely rolling right now as they have won five straight and just won their last three by double digits. And look at the opponents: Denver, Memphis and Sacramento. That is playoff form right now and this team is establishing themselves as a serious championship contender.

7 Unit Play. Take #645 Wisconsin over Northwestern (2p.m., Saturday, February 1 FS1) Wisconsin struggles when teams have multiple big men that are good and I do not see Northwestern fitting that bill. The Wildcats have been struggling against good teams, losing 3 of their last 4 games including a home loss to Rutgers last time out. Wisconsin beat that same Rutgers by 12 points earlier in New Jersey. Wisconsin can score points this season averaging 82 points per game and I am just not sure Northwestern can come close to getting that mark. Lay the small change with the better team today in Evanston.

The Hornets have covered in four of their last five as double digit dogs. We like this Clippers team a lot but are they going to get up for this game after playing teams like the Spurs, Suns and Celtics recently? This is the biggest line the Clippers have faced on the road this season, and they know they can probably win this one without giving full effort. The Hornets have lost but covered the last two meetings and three of the last four. We simply think this is too many points tonight, and there is a good chance the home team keeps this one within double digits.

Cleveland is one of the best teams in the NBA at not only winning games but covering them also, and it is very tough to go against them for wagers. We think it is justified tonight, however, and we think the Cavaliers are vulnerable. The Hawks have lost six straight and are very desperate for a win. They have played well in their last two games, however, with covers at Minnesota and vs. Houston, as they have had a tough schedule lately. The Cavs are on a back-to-back, while the Hawks are rested. Cleveland has won and covered two straight, but before that they were on a rare three-game losing streak without a cover, so they aren’t playing their best overall right now. The Hawks have also won and covered in three straight meetings. For our personal wagers, we might sprinkle a little on the moneyline also.

4 Unit Play.  Take #667 Wisconsin +5 over Maryland (7p.m., Wednesday, January 29 BTN) This is just too many points to be giving to the 17th ranked team in the country. Wisconsin has the better offense in this game and expect them to be able to take this game down to the wire. Maryland was lucky to beat Indiana on Sunday and Wisconsin is a much better team.

Utah has covered in three of the last four meetings. We think they are getting too many points again. The Jazz haven’t been playing well lately. It wasn’t long ago that they were covering a lot of games. They are coming off consecutive blowouts and we just think they are due for a competitive game. They have a winning record ATS this season and Golden State has not had many blowout wins lately outside of that Chicago game. The Warriors have covered only three of their last eight games, so the oddsmakers have them overrated right now.

2 Unit Play. Take #652 BYU over Baylor (9p.m., Tuesday, January 28 ESPN2) The Cougars are coming off two straight blowout wins to get back on track. I see them making it three in a row, as Baylor is not as strong of a team as they have been in past years.

2 Unit Play. Take #884 Arizona over Iowa State (10:30p.m., Monday, January 27 ESPN) Unranked team that is favored against the No. 3 team in the country is usually a strong indicator to lay the points. Arizona needs this win more than Iowa State does and they have a great home crowd that will be in play tonight in Tucson.

This game should be an absolute shootout. Both teams are rolling offensively right now and the pace should be fluid here. Memphis has scored no less than 125 in their last three games. They have 129 or more in four of their last six games. The Knicks are coming off a 143-point effort against the Kings. We think this will be a very competitive game that should come right down to the wire, and we think both teams can easily surpass 120 points each. Eight of the last nine meetings have gone over the posted number.

2 Unit  Play. Take #844 Wisconsin -7.5 over Nebraska (1p.m., Sunday, January 26 BTN) Wisconsin got a bad whistle last time out at UCLA but home cooking should allow them to win this game by double digits. They are facing a former player and will want to show him they are the better team.

Just love the way the Bucks have been playing, and we had this line handicapped at PK so there is some value here. Milwaukee is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and making up for a slow start. They are a live underdog to win this one tonight. They play well against the Clippers traditionally. They have won eight of the last 10 meetings and covered in three straight. That is a long history of dominance since these teams don’t play each other often.

The Kings have been hot, but we think this is a very tough matchup for them. This is their third game in four days, and they looked like they were running out of steam on Thursday vs. the Nuggets. They will need everything in their arsenal to beat the Knicks at MSG, and we don’t see this matchup going well for them. The Knicks have won and covered the last two meetings and six of the last seven.

We don’t often like to lay double digits in the NBA, but Memphis is the type of team that can put a massive score up against a banged up team like the Pelicans. Once again the Pels will be without their best player, and Murray is banged up as well. Memphis is 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite in their last six in this situation. They have won and covered in four of the last five meetings.

The Magic have been very poor on offense and we just don’t see them being able to score enough to cover this line tonight. They have scored 100 or less in four straight games. This team plays at the slowest pace in the league, and a low scoring game makes the points more valuable here. The Blazers have won and covered in their last two games, and they should come in confident they can keep this one close if not challenge for the win.

The Mavs have tons of injuries across their lineup and even if some of the questionable players hit the court, this team will be severely shorthanded tonight. The Timberwolves have been a bad team to bet on most of the season, but we have found if we pick the right spot for them that it can be advantageous and this looks like a good spot for them to pick up a comfortable win. They have had some losses lately as they have had a very tough schedule, but they have played well even in the losses and this team finally looks like it is gelling a bit with the roster additions. They have won and covered the last two visits to Dallas, and we think this could possibly be a 10-point-or-more victory.

7 Unit Play. Take #665 Wisconsin over UCLA (9:30p.m., Tuesday, January 21 Peacock) Wisconsin is playing outstanding basketball at the moment and will enter this game having 7 straight games. UCLA has not played to their potential much of late and will enter this game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Big 10 Conference is much more physical than what the Bruins are used to and I see Wisconsin taking this game down to the wire and pulling it out late. The Badgers beat USC without their leading scorer doing anything in that game and this variety will allow them to cover the number on Tuesday night.

Orlando is dead last in points per game in the NBA and they are also the slowest paced team. It’s no wonder they are 26-18 to the under. They have dealt with injuries all season long and haven’t had a consistent rotation, which hasn’t helped. They literally have to rely on their defensive schemes to stay competitive and hope they can sink enough buckets to win. Three straight meetings have gone under, and the last two were well under this total. The Magic haven’t scored more than 100 in three straight games. It’s doubtful they will break out here since the Raptors are an underrated defensive club. They held Boston to 97 recently and the Warriors to 100. It’s a very strong possibility that Orlando won’t reach 100. The Magic have been giving up some points lately as they have played many strong offensive teams. They have lost a lot of those games. But we think this is a game they think will be winnable and they will lock down defensively tonight.

The Clippers have won and covered in four straight meetings. The Bulls enter on a five-game losing streak. They have not covered any lines in their last four despite some generous lines by the oddsmakers. The Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season and they have played very well in their shiny new building. They are a very focused team this season and are playing great fundamental basketball, and are well coached as well.

Orlando’s stock is down and they haven’t been playing well lately. Injuries have been a big problem here. But we think this is too many points. The Nuggets are an inconsistent team. They don’t care much about the regular season and this is a team built for the postseason. We don’t see them giving 100% effort here. Orlando has had a very tough schedule lately. But they have won three straight in this series and covered in seven straight. They play at the slowest pace in the league and we think defense will allow them to keep this one close tonight.

7 Unit Play. Take #691 Wisconsin +1 over Southern California (3p.m., Saturday, January 18 BTN) USC is playing better but I do not feel they are at the point where it should be a pick’em game against a traditional top conference team like Wisconsin. The Badgers have also won 6 straight game, and they will go on a scoring run at some point in this game and I am not sure USC will be able to keep pace. Still cannot overlook the fact that USC lost to Cal, Sainty Mary’s, New Mexico, Indiana, and Oregon this season. Wisconsin is better than all of those teams and USC just does not have much of a homecourt advantage at the Galen Center.

We have avoided Boston like the plague as they have been overrated by the oddsmakers and they have been a bad ATS team. But when they want to bring their A Game they can dominate any team in any given night. Considering they are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raptors and also that the Magic beat them outright last meeting, this looks like a game that Boston will want to perform their best in. Orlando isn’t the team they should be this season with major injuries along their roster. We see a major blowout here.

4 Unit Play. Take #856 Cal Poly over UC Davis (10p.m., Thursday, January 16 ESPN+) The line in this game tells me something, as Cal Poly enters as the favorite despite being 0-6 in Big West play. This is a rematch and I expect the home team to win both of these meetings. Owen Koonce has been on a tear of late and if he gets 20+ tonight that should be enough to win this game for the Mustangs.

These teams played a week ago, and the total topped 250. These teams don’t play often, but the meeting before that saw 248 points scored. These are two Top 8 teams for points scored per game and also pace. The Cavs are No. 2 in the NBA for scoring and average more than 122 per game. In last week’s game both teams shot well over 50 percent from the field, and this will be a fast-paced game with lots of offense, so we don’t see much of a difference in what the final outcome is. This should be another close game, and we expect both teams to get their share of the total. Cleveland is one of the top over teams in the league and they have gone over in five if their last eight. OKC has been trending in that direction with four straight overs.

3 Unit Play. Take #754 Oklahoma over Texas (10p.m., Wednesday, January 15 SEC Network) Nothing better than two teams in the Midwest having a 9 p.m. local time tipoff. This is a straight fade on Texas, as I feel they are frauds, and their head coach is in over his head. The Sooners are also 0-3 in SEC play but I feel they are the better team in this matchup and cannot afford to lose another home conference game at this point of the season.

Even though the Thunder keep covering some of these inflated lines, these numbers are starting to get ridiculous. Yes, Embiid is out here. But Philly still has some players and they will want to play their best here as OKC is really starting to have a target on their back. The Sixers have won eight of the last nine meetings outright and they have covered in six of the last eight. Philly hasn’t been great lately but they are rarely getting blown out recently and we think they fight hard here and keep this one within double digits.