Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-30-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers -127 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -127 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10pm EST) The Brewers are far better than their record indicates and the same can be said of Saturday's starter Kyle Lohse. He checks in at 3-5 with a hefty 5.80 ERA, but all of his peripheral statistics are very close to what they have been for the last five years - a pitcher with an ERA in the high 3's. The Diamondbacks are exceeding expectations so far this season, but I can't see it continuing with so many weak spots in their rotation. Jeremy Hellickson is one of them and he'll get the ball on Saturday versus a capable Brewers lineup. Take Milwaukee to get the job done at home. |
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05-26-15 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Angels -162 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -162 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Angels over San Diego Padres (10:05pm EST) The San Diego Padres made some big moves in the offseason and A.J. Preller received quite a bit of praise from onlookers. While Preller improved a few areas of his team, he also left some glaring weaknesses. The Padres aren't going to be a contender until they can improve their infield, their defense and their depth. The depth issue is a big one right now with Yonder Alonso and Wil Myers on the disabled list. Defensively, they've been one of the worst clubs in baseball - especially in the outfield. The infield is a collection of spare parts that hasn't proven much in the major leagues yet. The starting rotation has also been a bit shaky and Odrisamer Despaigne is one of the culprits. The young right-hander has been filling in for the injured Brandon Morrow, but it's difficult to understand why he's still in the rotation. The 28-year old enters today's action with a robust 6.11 ERA despite pitching half of his games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. His low strikeout rate is a huge concern at just 4.1 per nine innings, and the Angels should be able to take advantage. Their bats are finally showing some signs of life after a slow start to the 2015 campaign. I also like what I've seen from right-hander Matt Shoemaker in his last few outings. Take the Halos to get the job done tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-15 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Angels -133 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Los Angeles Angels over San Diego Padres (9:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres were supposed to be contenders this year. At least that's what everyone said after GM A.J. Preller made acquisition after acquisition to reshape the team. I wasn't as impressed with the moves as they created some major defensive liabilities and had nowhere near the depth they needed to contend. They find themselves at 21-24 thru 45 games and are probably fortunate that they aren't worse. Today's starter Tyson Ross has had some real problems with control this season. He's walking nearly 5.0 batters per nine innings and his ERA is over a run higher than last season. He'll have his hands full with a tough Angel's lineup on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. The Halos haven't put up great numbers on the season, but they are coming around. Jered Weaver is also throwing the ball a ton better than he did earlier this season. He isn't throwing very hard, but he doesn't need to throw with much velocity to be effective. It's all about deception for Weaver and it's served him well throughout his career. The Padres don't make their way to Anaheim very often and that only adds to the advantage for the Angels tonight. Play the Angels as our pick. |
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05-24-15 | Chicago Cubs -125 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10pm EST) With Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta ahead of him in the rotation, Jason Hammel doesn't get a ton of attention. But he's pitching at an All-Star level right now. Hammel is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in eight starts in 2015. The key to his success has been pinpoint control. He's walking just 1.0 batters per nine innings versus 8.3 strikeouts per nine. That's one of the best ratios in all of baseball and he's increased his groundball rate as well. He'll face a tough Diamondbacks lineup this afternoon, but Hammel has looked especially sharp in his last three outings. He has a 1.23 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in his last three starts to go along with a 22-4 K-BB ratio. Arizona will send right-hander Jeremy Hellickson to the mound to face a much improved Cubs lineup. Hellickson is still trying to get comfortable in a D-backs uniform as he enters with a 1-3 record and 5.52 ERA. The Cubs lineup just continues to get better as their youngsters are developing at a fast rate. This line is about 15 cents too low, so we'll take Chicago. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-22-15 | Oakland A's v. Tampa Bay Rays -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Tampa Bay Rays over Oakland A's (7:10pm EST) I'm not sure what the Tampa Bay Rays need to do to get gain some respect. Most pundits had this team picked to finish dead last in the AL East before the season, but the Rays now find themselves all alone atop the AL East seven weeks into the season. They have also been doing with without a lot of important pieces that have been on the disabled list. Tampa has the best run differential in their division and is third in the AL behind just the Royals and Astros. Chris Archer gets the ball for them today and he hasn't garnered enough attention from the rest of baseball either. Archer is one of the elite pitchers in the AL and comes in with a 2.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in nine starts. His 10.2 strikeout rate is amongst the league leaders and his walk rate and groundball rate have both improved markedly from last season. Maybe most impressive, Archer has only given up one home run in 49 innings since his first start of the season. The Oakland A's will get the unenviable task of going up Archer tonight. The A's have really struggled to score runs lately and find themselves with the worst record in all of baseball at 14-29. They are clearly a much better record than their record indicates and will eventually turn things around. However, I don't expect the offense to turn things around against Archer. Lefty Scott Kazmir takes the hill for Oakland. He's been steady since joining the A's last season, but his last four starts haven't been pretty. He's 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over those four outings and has given up four home runs. Tampa Bay can load up their lineup with right-handers and should be able to take advantage of a struggling southpaw. Take Tampa Bay as our 7-unit May Game. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-20-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -117 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST) Two veterans enjoying strong seasons meet up on Wednesday night. Brett Anderson gets the ball for the Dodgers and comes in with a 3.50 ERA and an impressive 65% groundball rate. He's also walking only 1.5 batters per nine innings this season. Anderson is right at his career ERA and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain this success as long as he stays healthy this season. The same can't be said of the Giants' Lincecum. He's doing it with smoke and mirrors so far in 2015. His 2.43 ERA isn't supported by his peripheral numbers including a hideous 4.2 walk rate per nine innings and his lowest strikeout rate of his career at just 7.1. It won't be long before Timmy has his ERA back in the 4's as his control isn't getting any better. The Dodgers own an advantage over the Giants in every area on the diamond, so this line is definitely a bit too low. Let's take the Dodgers in this one. |
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05-18-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. New York Mets -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 New York Mets over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets are coming off a pair of wins by scores of 5-1 and 14-1 against the Brewers. They sit atop the National League East and have the best home record in baseball at 15-4. That's where they will be today with their ace Matt Harvey taking the hill. Harvey is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in seven starts this season and is still getting better. The Cardinals counter with veteran John Lackey, who doesn't look as sharp as he did in Boston. Lackey's strikeout rate is down considerably and he's walking more batters than he did the last two seasons. The Cardinal bats have been quiet of late as they've scored a total of just 11 runs in their last five games. Somehow the Cardinals find themselves at 25-12 on the season, but I don't see them staying anywhere near that level. Take Harvey and the Mets at home today in a reasonable price range. |
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05-17-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -126 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #969 Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota Twins (2:05pm EST) Three strong forces are in our favor in today's matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. First off, Chris Archer is quietly developing into one of the elite pitchers in all of baseball. He comes in with a strong 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP to go along with an impressive 10.7 strikeout rate per nine innings. It won't be long until Archer is priced like one of the top pitchers in baseball, so now is the time to pounce on him. The Rays are also being undervalued as a team this season because of their low expectations. They were picked by most to finish dead last in the AL East and have been above the .500 mark for the entire season. No organization is better at doing more with less than the Rays so this isn't a huge surprise to me. The Twins have been quite a story so far in 2015, but I'm not a believer that they can continue their success. None of their underlying numbers support their team record and this squad isn't much different than the team that won 72 games last season. They will eventually fall down to their usual spot in last place in time, so we should find value fading them in the meantime. All signs point to Archer and the Rays today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-16-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Philadelphia Phillies -103 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST) The last time Archie Bradley took the mound he took a 100+ mph liner in the face. It was an ugly scene and he's lucky that he just had to endure a short 15-day trip to the disabled list. Today he'll make his first start since that accident and nobody is going to blame the rookie if he has some jitters on the hill. Bradley is a highly-touted prospect who has gotten a ton of attention, so there is value to be had going against him in his rookie season until he starts to figure things out. The Phillies aren't a team that everyone is rushing out to bet on, so there are some places you can also find value betting on them. Jerome Williams isn't going to set the world on fire with his stuff, but he is experienced and knows how to keep major league hitters off balance. As bad as the Phillies are overall, they are still a respectable 10-10 at home this season. I think they get the best of Bradley and the Diamondbacks today. |
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05-15-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -102 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #973 Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays were predicted to finish last place in the AL East by most publications and experts before the season started. Despite suffering through more injuries than any other team, the Rays find themselves at 20-16 thru the season's first six weeks. They are just one game behind the Yankees for first place and still can't get any respect in the betting markets for some reason. They recently lost Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly to season-ending injuries, but the team continues to march on. Jake Odorizzi has taken another step forward in his development and enters today's game with a stellar 2.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in seven starts. Like most other Rays' players, Odorizzi doesn't get a ton of attention so we get a little extra value on a guy that is developing into a potential ace. He'll face a Minnesota lineup on Friday that is overachieving early on. The Twins are off to a 19-16 start, but I'm just not buying in. This is the same team that lost 92 games last season without any major additions in 2015. Phil Hughes makes his eighth start of the season in this game and the first seven have been really disappointing overall. Hughes had a huge breakthrough year in 2014 but has taken a couple of steps back this season. His strikeout rate is down significantly and he's been more susceptible to the long ball. Tampa Bay has advantages over the Twins in every department, so we see great value at this price. Take the Rays as our Game of the Week. |
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05-13-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Cincinnati Reds -125 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #956 Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are just 16-17 to start the season, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward. First off, the bullpen has been an absolute disaster with a 5.47 ERA this season - worst in the National League. They can only improve from there, and remember they have the best closer in the world in Aroldis Chapman. The offense has also sputtered despite a nice balanced group from top to bottom. Cincinnati is only 10th in the NL in runs scored - another area has room to improve. The starting pitching has been a nice backbone and the Reds have quite a bit of depth there. Raisel Iglesias gets the ball today and he has looked pretty good in Triple-A this season. The Braves have never seen him and that's a big advantage for Iglesias the first couple of times thru the order. Left-hander Eric Stults goes for the Braves in this one. I'm shocked that Stults is still in the league after he couldn't hack it in pitcher-friendly San Diego the last couple of years. The Braves are rebuilding, however, so Stults is likely to stick whether he continues to struggle or not. The records for these two clubs are similar now, but the Reds are likely to improve while the Braves are on the way down. Take Cincinnati at a reasonable price at home. |
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05-08-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -118 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm EST) Big series for the Pirates as they host the Cardinals for three games starting on Friday night. Pittsburgh is off to a slow start and is now eight games behind the streaking Cardinals in the NL Central. It's still very early, but they can't afford to lose much more ground. Francisco Liriano gets the nod for Pittsburgh and he has owned the Cardinals over his career. St. Louis is batting .240 against Liriano in 192 at bats with just four home runs. Liriano comes into today with a sparking 1.95 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five starts this season. He should have no problems keeping the Cards at bay and that puts extra pressure on Michael Wacha. I don't like what I've seen from Wacha since returning from his injury. His strikeouts are way down and he's been extremely fortunate on several fronts. His BABIP is just .229 and he is stranding 87% of baserunners. Those numbers will regress and his ERA will head up into the high 3's eventually. Good matchup for the Pirates today and that's where our money is. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-15 | Miami Marlins v. San Francisco Giants -122 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 San Francisco Giants over Miami Marlins (10:15pm EST) This is a really good spot for the Giants on Thursday night versus the Marlins. First off, Miami has to travel cross country after playing in Washington D.C. on Wednesday afternoon against the Nats. You can't get a much longer flight than that in this country, and usually teams get a day off prior to that kind of trip. Meanwhile, the Giants are in the middle of a ten-game homestand and have been playing great ball of late. San Francisco is 10-4 over their last 14 contests and their pitching has been extremely strong during that span. Tim Hudson will be responsible for keeping it going on Thursday and I like his chances. The Marlins are an aggressive bunch and Hudson is great at keeping those types of hitters off balance. He's a rock solid pitcher that you can always count on to keep you in the game, and this season is no different. Hudson has a 3.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five starts, and four of those have been quality starts. The Marlins counter with right-hander Dan Haren in this matchup. Haren has been pretty good this season, but a lot of his success can be attributed to his eye-popping 97% strand rate. Given that his career mark is 72%, we know that is going to drop and his 2.70 ERA will rise as a result. The Giants are swinging the bats well and are patient enough to wait Haren out and get some good pitches to hit. The Giants are the better team overall, have the better pitcher on the mound and are at home. Throw in the tough travel spot for the Marlins and this price is far too low. Take San Francisco as Game. |
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05-02-15 | Oakland A's -127 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #927 Oakland A's over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) If you're making a list of pitchers currently pitching over their heads, Nick Martinez has to be near the top of the list. He's managed a ridiculous 0.35 ERA despite only striking out 3.8 batters per nine innings and walking 2.8. Regression is in order and the A's offense brings Martinez back down to earth in this one. Drew Pomeranz gets the ball for Oakland and has pitched better than this 4.50 ERA indicates. The A's took the wind out of Texas last night, as they came back from a 5-0 deficit after scoring seven times in the eighth inning. With the Rangers awful start, their team morale can't be good after another deflating loss. Take the A's to grab the victory here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-01-15 | Washington Nationals v. New York Mets -101 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 New York Mets over Washington Nationals (7:10pm EST) The best matchup today is right here as Max Scherzer and the Nationals go up against Matt Harvey and the Mets. Under normal conditions, this line would be pretty accurate. However, there is some cause for concern for Scherzer's thumb as he missed his regularly scheduled start a few days ago. The team is saying all the right things right now, but I'd be surprised if Scherzer is 100%. I'd be even more surprised if he throws more than 100 pitches. That means we could see a few different members of the Washington bullpen, which benefits the Mets. Offensively, both of these teams have scored 95 runs in 22 games this season. The Mets play better defense and their bullpen has been exceptional so far in 2015. Slight edge to the Mets in this one at home, so that's where we'll go with this selection. |
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04-30-15 | Toronto Blue Jays -119 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland Indians (7:10pm EST) It doesn't get much worse than what we've seen from right-hander T.J. House this season. In three starts he is 0-3 with a 12.60 ERA and 2.60 WHIP to go along with a horrid 7-9 K-BB ratio. Cleveland has other options, so I have a feeling this will be House's last start in the rotation for now. The Blue Jays have a lineup loaded with good right-handed hitters and that spells trouble for the struggling House. The promising Daniel Norris gets the ball for the Jays. Norris will definitely have some bumps in the road during this rookie season, but he has tremendous stuff and he's been mostly effective in his four starts thus far. The Indians sports a lot of lefties in their everyday lineup, so they will likely struggle against him. This game is simply a matchup nightmare for Cleveland, so the value lies with Toronto today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-29-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -114 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (6:10pm EST) The Royals are 14-6 and the Indians are 6-13 to open the young season. But looking at team records in April to make betting decisions is an exercise in futility. We're dealing with a lot of small sample sizes and no team is as good or as bad as it looks right now. Danny Salazar is throwing the ball extremely well right now and we catch him at home laying a very small price due to the records these teams carry into the game. In his two big league starts in 2015 he is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and boasts an amazing 14.5 strikeout rate per innings. The Royals don't swing and miss very often, so this will definitely be a matchup of strengths. The Royals send right-hander Yordano Ventura to the hill. Ventura has been involved in several altercations already this season and doesn't exactly have his focus in the right direction. With all eyes on what Ventura will do next, I anticipate some struggles in the short-term. The Indians feature eight left-handed hitters in their lineup, so this is a really good matchup for them at home. With Salazar on the mound they won't need to score many to get a W. Take the Indians as our Game. |
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04-28-15 | Seattle Mariners -111 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 Seattle Mariners over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Seattle Mariners are off to a bit of a slow start at 8-11 this season. But that is good news for bettors, as there should be some really nice spots to grab some value on one of the best teams in baseball early on. Today is one of those opportunities as the M's take on the Rangers. The acquisition of J.A. Happ in the offseason didn't grab any headlines, but I think it was a great move by Seattle. Happ was really good in the second half of 2014 and fits in really well in Seattle given his flyball tendencies. So far he has been impressive with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three starts. He's been pitching to contact a little more and that could help him control his walks and rely on a top flight defense behind him. The Rangers counter with southpaw Ross Detwiler, who has been absolutely horrific in his first three starts with his new team. He has a 10.95 ERA and 2.59 WHIP in 12.1 innings and is likely on the verge of losing his spot in the rotation. In his three outings, Detwiler has only struck out five batters against seven walks. He has an awful 31% groundball rate and has already allowed five home runs. He has easily been the worst pitcher in baseball so far, and we'll gladly lay this low price to fade him. Take the Mariners to win this one as our Game. |
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04-27-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -143 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:10pm EST) Tim Lincecum has a 2.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after this first three starts of the 2015 campaign. He looks sharp and has more confidence on the mound, but don't let a small sample size override what we've seen from him in the recent past. Over the last three seasons, Lincecum has posted a 5.18 ERA, 4.37 ERA and 4.74 ERA. His strikeouts have declined in each of the last three seasons and he's still walking a ton of batters. The regression this season is coming, and a solid Dodgers lineup should be able to exploit him. Brett Anderson gets the ball for Los Angeles in this one. He hasn't been able to stay very healthy over the last three years, but when he pitches he is great. He's healthy now and I expect Anderson to have an ERA in the low threes if he can stay off the disabled list. The Giants have really struggled to score runs this season and find themselves at 13th in the NL in runs scored. They really need to get Hunter Pence back in the lineup. He's not only a great catalyst on offense, but a great motivator and team leader. The Dodgers are the much better team at the moment and that's where we'll go today. |
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04-25-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -104 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (6:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be better than most people think this season. They are almost always better than people think. The Rays are 9-8 on the young season despite being ravaged by injuries in the early going. They continue to get better as guys are removed from the disabled list, with James Loney being the latest removal. Their lineup is underrated and they have a strong defense and bullpen. Both of today's starting pitchers have been struggling mightily so far in 2015. Daniel Norris and Erasmo Ramirez wish they could have a do-over this year, but I think Ramirez could get things turned around quickly. The Rays are excellent at developing young arms and I am confident they can at least turn Ramirez into a decent back-of-the-rotation starter. Norris is struggling with a dead arm at the moment, so it's a bit surprising that he is making the start today. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a very short outing in this one, as the leash won't be long. The Rays scored 12 runs yesterday and are swinging the bats well. I think they get to Norris early and hold on for a win. |
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04-23-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox -150 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #974 Chicago White Sox over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals are coming off a World Series appearance that showed of their unique talents to the entire world. And now they're off to a wonderful 11-4start to the 2015 season. So if you're looking for an opportunity to sell high on the Royals, now is that time. The Royals are definitely a contender again this season, but I don't think they are in the elite category that they are being valued at currently. The starting rotation has some major question marks, starting right at the top with today's starter Yordano Ventura. He was fabulous in his rookie season but I'm predicting a sophomore slump and the early returns have him heading in that direction. Ventura comes in with a hefty 4.80 ERA in three starts and his seen his strikeout rate decrease by over 15%. Kansas City is also missing two of the three guys from its three-headed bullpen monster. Kelvin Herrera is suspended and closer Greg Holland is out with a shoulder injury. The White Sox send ace Chris Sale to the mound in today's game. He just continues to get better at the age of just 26. The Clayton Kershaw of the American League posted a 2.17 ERA last season and is at 2.25 in his two starts in 2015. The Sox are off to a slow start, but they have a nice lineup from top to bottom and made some big upgrades to the bullpen in the offseason. I see some value with the White Sox today. |
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04-22-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -137 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST) Two of the best in the game go at it today as Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner get the ball. Both of them have struggled early on, but there's absolutely no question that they will get back on track sooner than later. But I'd bet on Kershaw getting back to form sooner than Bumgarner. Last season, Bumgarner threw 270 innings including the postseason, so we could be seeing some carry-over effect this season. The Giants also aren't hitting the ball at all right now, as they have average just 2.6 runs per game. The Dodgers are second in the NL in runs scored and have been playing much better defense than they have in the past. All in all, the Dodgers are playing a ton better right now and they have the best pitcher in the world on the hill. You won't see many Kershaw lines this low, so we'll take advantage today. |
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04-21-15 | Cleveland Indians -124 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #973 Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) This one is all about the starting pitching matchup. Carlos Carrasco is one of the budding aces in the American League after a huge breakthrough season in 2014. He had numbers that rivaled Clayton Kershaw in the second half of last season, and he looked good in his first outing of 2015. If he can stay healthy, I fully expect Carrasco to compete for the Cy Young this season. On the other side is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball - Hector Noesi. It's amazing that the veteran right-hander still has a job after posting ERAs of 5.82, 6.59 and 4.75 in the last three seasons. He'll likely be replaced by rookie Carlos Rodon before long, but in the meantime we'll take this opportunity to fade Noesi. Take Cleveland in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-15-15 | Washington Nationals v. Boston Red Sox -117 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -117 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Boston Red Sox over Washington Nationals (1:35pm EST) We'll look to cash in all on three games of a potential sweep for the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday afternoon. We had Boston in the first two and they once again look like the better team in today's matchup versus the Nationals. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for Washington today and he's going to have his work cut out for him. Boston is near the top in runs scored in the early going this season, and their lineup is built to hammer left-handers. What the Nationals are not built to do is to play in an American League stadium. They've had Clint Robinson in the DH spot for the first two games. He's not exactly a household name and has gone 2-for-9 in the series. The Nats are dealing with a few injuries right now and are nowhere near where they will be in a few weeks. Boston has started the season hot at 6-2 and has scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. They won't let up tonight, so we'll roll with Boston again. |
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04-14-15 | Washington Nationals v. Boston Red Sox -122 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Boston Red Sox over Washington Nationals (6:10pm EST) We'll go back to the well and fade the Washington Nationals once again today. The Nats just aren't 100% right now, and that is going to hurt them even more in interleague games. Jayson Werth came back yesterday, but they are still without Anthony Rendon and Denard Span. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for Washington against Justin Masterson of Boston. On paper, this is a sizable edge for the Nats. However, Strasburg wasn't sharp in his first start and Masterson pitched a gem. Yes it's only one game, but current form is important for starting pitchers. The Red Sox hold a huge advantage with their superior starting lineup, and that's going to be the difference today. Take Boston as a small home favorite today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-13-15 | Washington Nationals v. Boston Red Sox -114 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Boston Red Sox over Washington Nationals (3:05pm EST) The Washington Nationals will probably be one of the top teams in the National League by season's end. But right now they are just a mediocre team that is trying to stay afloat until they are healthy. Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth (may return today) and Denard Span are nursing short-term injuries at the moment. That's three of their top hitters on a team that lacks good depth and is without fourth outfielder Nate McLouth as well. It will be particularly troubling for the Nats today in Boston, as they'll need to find a designated hitter to insert to the lineup as well. For the Red Sox, they'll obviously have David Ortiz in that slot - a huge advantage for them. Rick Porcello will toe the rubber for Boston in the home opener for the Sox. Boston gave Porcello a ton of money after bringing him over from the Tigers, so they must think they can further improve upon what the 26-year old has already done. He already has 76 wins at the major league level and had his best season in 2014 going 15-13 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's shown steady improvement throughout his career, so expect similar numbers again in Boston. Jordan Zimmermann goes for the Nats. He's obviously no easy target, but his velocity was down a touch in his opening start. If he's not right, a dangerous Red Sox lineup should be able to exploit him. Take Boston in this one. |
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04-11-15 | San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres OVER 6 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 102 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take San Francisco Giants/San Diego Padres OVER (Saturday, 8:40pm EST) Madison Bumgarner and James Shields meet once again after hooking up twice in last year's World Series. Pitchers and teams who play in the previous year's World Series are often a bit overvalued in the betting marketplace the following season. James Shields has a ton of innings on his arm after throwing 200+ in eight straight seasons, in addition to several deep playoff runs. It usually catches up to guys who log so many innings over the years (see Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia), so we should see some regression for Shields. Madison Bumgarner is younger, so he may be able to endure it better. But he threw a total of 270 innings last season and could not have ended it on a higher note. He's now being rated as one of the top three pitchers in baseball, and I'm not sure he's in the same category as a Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez yet. Both of the offenses in this game have some pop, and I think they can muster enough runs to get us over the low total. |
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04-08-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -122 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) If you're looking for the most balanced team in the American League, look no further than the Seattle Mariners. They have a nice balanced lineup, a dominant bullpen, stellar defense and an above average starting rotation. They just missed out on the postseason last year, and this season they are on a mission to get there. Today's starter Hisashi Iwakuma doesn't get much attention, but he's one of the top 10 starters in the American League and has been a rock of consistency in his three years in an M's uniform. Last year he went 15-9 with a 3.52 ERA and that was his worst season. Today he'll get the Los Angeles Angels, who have one of the better offenses in the league. However, the Angels aren't as good against right-handers and they are without one of their big bats in Josh Hamilton. Matt Shoemaker will toe the rubber for Los Angeles, and I see a huge potential for a sophomore slump from him after putting together a great rookie season in 2014. Shoemaker really struggled in the spring with only 10 strikeouts in 25.1 innings of work. The team hinted at some possible mechanical adjustments for Shoemaker and it didn't sound very good. The Mariners hit right-handers great in 2014 with all of their lefties in their lineup. Now they add a big power bat in Nelson Cruz to the mix, who hit 40 homers last season with the Orioles. He won't hit that many with Seattle, but he provides excellent protection for both Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager in the M's lineup. These are the two best teams in the AL West, but the Mariners are the better all-around squad and they have the matchup advantages today. |
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10-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants -122 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 San Francisco Giants over Kansas City Royals (8:05pm EST) I have the Kansas City Royals rated slightly ahead of the San Francisco Giants all things considered. But in analyzing tonight's matchup, I give the Giants the edge based on a couple of big factors. First and foremost, veteran Tim Hudson takes the mound for the Giants against Jeremy Guthrie of the Royals. Hudson has pitched 68.1 postseason innings during his career and has registered a very respectable 3.42 ERA against some good hitting teams. Needless to say, a start in the World Series shouldn't faze Hudson very much. Guthrie, on the other hand, is pitching in his first postseason of his entire career. He looked good in the ALCS in five innings of work, but this game is on an even bigger stage and has more pressure. I trust Hudson a lot more and expect him to outpitch Guthrie today. The Giants are also at home for this one and they've been dominant at home in the postseason. They've won four straight home playoff games and nine out of 10 dating back to 2012. The Royals aren't familiar with AT&T as they haven't played there since 2005, which could be a huge advantage for the Giants. I like the Giants to prevail here and make it a 2-1 series lead. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-07-14 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants +125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 125 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #932 San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals (9:05pm EST) It's been a tight series between the Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants and today's Game 4 should be no different. These teams are fairly evenly matched but I give the Giants the edge on the mound today. Gio Gonzalez goes for the Nats and he's put together another solid season at 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He pitched a little better towards the end of the season and he should give a good effort here. Ryan Vogelsong had slightly worse numbers at 8-13 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season. But I like the fact that Vogelsong has been here before and succeeded, so the pressure isn't as likely to affect him. Manager Bruce Bochy knows what he's doing and he wouldn't be putting Vogelsong out there if he didn't think he was the best option. Normal starter Yusmeiro Petit will be ready if Vogelsong stumbles, and he's a great backup plan. The line on this game is pretty close to where it should be, but the Giants have proven themselves in big spots like this before and I don't think you can make them an underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-23-14 | Philadelphia Phillies -130 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) It's been a difficult season for the Philadelphia Phillies on several fronts. This was supposed to be the beginning of a rebuild, but the stubbornness of GM Ruben Amaro has set this team back several years. The team still fought hard in the 2014 season as the veterans played with pride and didn't quit. Cole Hamels is one of the guys that certainly didn't let the organizational disaster affect him on the mound throughout the year. He put together his best season from an ERA standpoint (2.47), but he only has nine wins to show for it due to lack of run support and some bullpen blow ups. He should finish the season strong as other teams take a close look at him for a potential trade in the offseason. Henderson Alvarez makes his 29th start of the season today for Miami. This has been a breakthrough season for Alvarez as he owns an impressive 2.82 ERA and 11 wins. However, his peripheral statistics point to regression as he's been fortunate with a higher than normal strand rate and a weak strikeout rate. The Marlins haven't been the same without their slugger Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of the lineup. Stanton had a great chance of bringing home the NL MVP trophy this season, but with the injury he probably finishes in second place now. Hamels doesn't need any extra edges, but that is a big loss for Miami. We'll go with the Phillies as our Game of the Week selection today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-15-14 | Cincinnati Reds -108 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm EST) We have two starting pitchers with different mindsets heading into today's matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs. For the Reds' Alfredo Simon it's been a breakthrough season in 2014. The 33-year old right-hander has spent most of his career in the bullpen, but was given a shot in the rotation this season with Mat Latos on the disabled list early on. Simon responded in a big way as he enters today's matchup at 14-10 with a 3.48 ERA and also made the All-Star team this season. He's been one of the bright spots for the Reds this year and would like to finish the season strong to hopefully secure a spot in the rotation for next season. Travis Wood, on the other hand, cannot wait for the 2014 campaign to end. The southpaw is having the worst season of his young career at 8-12 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Wood lost control of his pitches early on in the season and just never got on track. The Cubs are without their top two offensive weapons in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, so Wood is going to have to pitch extremely well to give Chicago a chance. I just don't see that happening and I'm much more confident in Simon shutting down the Cubs' bats. This price seems awfully cheap for the better team and much better pitcher. The play is Cincinnati. |
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09-12-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
10--unit Play Take Cleveland Indians/Detroit Tigers UNDER 7 (7:05pm EST) There isn't a hotter starting pitcher right now in the AL than Carlos Carrasco of the Cleveland Indians. Since joining the Indians' rotation a month ago, the right-hander is 4-0 with an eye-popping 0.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in six starts. He also boasts an amazing 42-4 K/BB ratio to further prove his domination of opposing hitters. Carrasco has pitched out of the bullpen for most of the season, but it's clear that he's finally ready for a full-time role as a starter. He'll be opposed by Detroit starter David Price, who isn't exactly chopped liver. Price has had a couple of bad outings since joining the Tigers, but his overall numbers are spectacular as usual. Both of these pitchers are extremely tough to hit, and it doesn't help that the Indians struggle against left-handers and the Tigers aren't as good against righties. I'm not crazy about the bullpens on either side, but that shouldn't matter much in this one. I expect both starters to go deep into today's game and dominate. This game should also have a playoff-type atmosphere as the Indians are hanging on for a playoff spot and the Tigers are fighting for the division. Unders are certainly better bets than overs in these types of situations historically. The Under is also 7-0 in Carrasco's last seven starts and these teams have went Under in five of their last seven contests overall. Runs should be hard to come by today and that's why we are playing Under as our 10-unit MLB Total. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-08-14 | Kansas City Royals +128 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
This could be the series where the Kansas City Royals stake their claim to the AL Central. They travel to Detroit to begin a crucial three-game series against the Tigers on Monday. The Royals currently hold a two-game lead in the division, so if they can win two of three in this series they will nearly lock things up barring a collapse. The Royals are playing fantastic baseball with a 31-12 record over their last 43 games. Conversely, Detroit is slowly crumbling as they are three games below .500 since the All-Star break. Kansas City has the edge on the mound today with Jeremy Guthrie going up against Justin Verlander. That's something I didn't think I'd ever be saying about two years ago, but Verlander is no longer Verlander. In fact, he's one of the worst pitchers in the AL over the last two seasons. Guthrie is nothing special, but he has looked very good over the last few weeks. The offense is the only area where the Tigers can claim an advantage, and it's a sizable one. However, the Royals more than make up for it with a better bullpen, better team defense and playing more fundamentally sound overall. The Royals do all of the little things to win ball games that the Tigers don't do. On paper, the Tigers have more talent and look the part. But the Royals are the more complete team and I like their chances to win this series. It starts with a win tonight, and we get a great underdog price with the Royals. |
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09-07-14 | San Diego Padres -118 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Two NL West clubs with different mindsets do battle today in Coors Field. The San Diego Padres have been a completely team in the second half of the season after dismal start to the 2014 campaign. They were 41-54 at the break, but since then they are a very solid 25-20. The biggest part of the turnaround is the fact that they've been hitting the ball really well. That should come in handy today in Coors Field against Franklin Morales and the Rockies. Morales has struggled for most of the season at 5-7 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His poor production can't all be blamed on Coors as Morales ha a 5.29 ERA on the road this season in 63 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher, which isn't going to bode well in Denver on most days. The Padres don't have a ton of power, but anyone can hit one out of Coors if they get a good swing on it. All-Star Tyson Ross will toe the rubber for San Diego. The right-hander has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the NL with a 2.60 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts this season. The Rockies are a complete mess offensively without their two top hitters out - Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. This team has really given up on its season once those two were put on the disabled list. They have the worst record in baseball since the beginning of May and have been shining their golf clubs for weeks now. Take the Padres here. |
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09-04-14 | Los Angeles Angels -118 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Los Angeles Angels over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels will be happy to head to Minnesota after losing a short two-game series in Houston. The fact is, the Astros are a much better team than the Twins are right now despite similar records. That's because the Twins, like they do every season, have been slowly fading after a decent start. They just don't have the horses on the pitching staff and their offense has not been consistent enough to win them games. Since the All-Star break the Twins are 17-28, which equates to a 100-loss team pro-rated over a full season. They are more focused on next season, while the Angels have their attention on winning the AL West division. The Halos have the best record in baseball and there are no big weaknesses except for a couple of holes in the starting rotation due to injury. Hector Santiago has been considered one of the weak links, but he's currently throwing the ball the best he has all season and I think we'll see another solid effort tonight. Over his last four outings, the left-hander has a spectacular 1.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Confidence has been an issue for Santiago in the past, so he's the kind of pitcher who can continue to build on solid efforts one after another. The Angels offense should have no problem giving him some support today as they've been near the top in run production all season long. Mike Trout is finally going to get that MVP trophy that he has deserved since he broke into the league, and he has a nice supporting cast around him. The Angels are the far superior team and we get a great price on them today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-28-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -144 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals host the Minnesota Twins in the final game of their three-game series in Kaufman Stadium tonight. The Royals are looking for the sweep after a pair of wins in which they allowed just a single run in each. Kansas City is now 26-8 over their last 34 games and has built a 2.5 game lead in the AL Central. They are playing great team baseball with excellent outings from their starting pitchers, near perfect work in the bullpen and timely hits when they need them. Their team chemistry is amongst the best in baseball and it really shows on the field when you watch this team come to work every day. They don't take anything for granted and they have a different hero seemingly every night. Right-hander Jeremy Guthrie makes the start in this one and I have really enjoyed his last few outings. Guthrie isn't a guy I've been high on in the past, but he's on another one of his patented rolls where he transforms into an All-Star caliber pitcher. Over his last four starts he is 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA and has a 17-3 K/BB ratio. The Twins counter with lefty Tommy Milone, who was traded by the A's a month ago. Milone is nothing special and that's why the A's were willing to let him walk even though they like to stockpile pitching. He's nothing more than a mediocre arm that will give you decent innings and keep you in the game. I have the Royals as a much bigger favorite in this one, nearly 30 cents higher. Play Kansas City. |
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08-27-14 | Tampa Bay Rays +108 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #967 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) It was inevitable that the Tampa Bay Rays would need to trade away David Price at some point. There's no way a small market team could afford him long-term and he was going to demand somewhere in the $200 million range. But many questioned why the Rays traded him when they did and were even more critical of the package they got back in return for the dominant left-hander. Tampa received major league pitcher Drew Smyly and prospects Nick Franklin and Willy Adames. Most agreed that the prospects weren't of the elite variety and that Smyly was just a middle-of-rotation guy at best. However, the Rays saw something in Smyly that most didn't and they think he can project out as an ace or very close. And so far, Joe Maddon and the staff might be getting him there. In his four starts with Tampa, Smyly has a 1.55 ERA and 0.76 WHIP including a complete game shutout against the dangerous Blue Jays lineup last time out. Could the Rays actually have gotten the better end of this deal? Could Smyly really be an ace in the waiting? Those questions remain to be answered. However, Smyly certainly is throwing the ball well and isn't getting enough attention for it in the betting markets. He'll face another tough opponent in the Orioles today. Baltimore counters with youngster Kevin Gausman, who has been up and down in his first major league season. He's 7-5 with a 3.81 ERA overall, but he needs to be more consistent to reach his full potential. I like this Rays team a lot more than most despite the fact that they are out of contention. One bad run really ended their season, but outside of that they are one of the top teams in the AL. And with Smyly on the hill today, they have no business being an underdog. Take the Rays. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-22-14 | Miami Marlins -130 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Miami Marlins over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) We've made a killing going against the Colorado Rockies this season and there's no reason to stop now. This is simply the worst team in baseball without their two best players on the field. Since the beginning of May, the Rockies are on an abysmal 28-62 run and they cannot wait for the season to end. The Marlins come into Coors still holding onto hope in the wild card race in the NL. At 63-63, they are just four games from the second wild card spot and that has them motivated day in and day out. I really like the pitching matchup today for the Marlins. Henderson Alvarez takes the hill for Miami and his stuff is very well-suited for the high altitude. He does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and can bring the heat when he needs to. He's also had one of the lower home run rates in the NL over the last couple of seasons as well. The same can't be said of Colorado starter Franklin Morales. He's a fly ball pitcher that has really struggled with his control in 2014. He enters today's game with a 5.04 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 28 games, which includes some work out of the bullpen. It's a little surprising that Morales is back in the rotation given Colorado's position. They have several good young arms in the minors, and we should see one or two of them up sooner than later. The Marlins offense has been inconsistent this season, but they are a respectable 6th in runs scored in the NL and have been swinging the bats well lately. They should have no problem getting to Morales and exposing a weak Rockies bullpen. Alvarez is in good form and should hold up his end of the bargain, which should lead to a Marlins victory today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-14 | Kansas City Royals -141 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #977 Kansas City Royals over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) We continue to ride the hot streak of the Kansas City Royals once again today. They are now 21-5 in their last 26 contests and have jumped into first place in the AL Central. Ace James Shields makes the start today in Coors Field against the Rockies. Shields has posted his usual solid numbers at 11-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 26 starts. He's backed up by a tremendous defense and one of the best bullpens in the league as well. Shields will see a weaker Rockies lineup that is without Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, both of whom are on the disabled list. Colorado has been absolutely abysmal when they've been without their top two starts over the last few years, and unfortunately they've missed a ton of time. They've been the worst team in baseball since the end of April and the end of the season can't come soon enough for them. Lefty Tyler Matzek makes his 13th start of the season today and it's been tough for him adjusting to major league hitters. He comes in with a 5.50 ERA and 1.54, which isn't entirely due to pitching in Coors. Matzek actually has better numbers at home than he does on the road, although neither set is impressive. With the way the Royals are hitting, they should be able to attack Matzek early and Shields should keep the lead safe. And if it comes down to the respective bullpens, the Royals have another big edge. Take Kansas City as our 10-unit selection. |
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08-08-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado Rockies (9:40pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Colorado Rockies in the first of three games in Chase Field. This season hasn't gone according to plan for either team, but it's not as bad as it seems for Arizona. Since late April, the D-backs are 41-43 despite being dealt quite a few big injury blows. It was the rough start to the season that buried this team, but they've always played hard and haven't given up on the season. The same can't be said of the Rockies however. They are an abysmal 23-55 since late April, which is the worst mark in baseball over that span. Superstar and team leader Troy Tulowitzki was just quoted as saying things need to change with the team because he's tired of losing. The fact he went public with that statement doesn't bode well for team chemistry. Colorado has a talented roster, but something is wrong in the clubhouse and they have had a difficult time keeping everyone on the field at the same time. Today's matchups is lined a little short, with Chase Anderson a small favorite over Tyler Matzek. Anderson has had a solid rookie campaign at 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while making half of his starts in a hitter's haven. Matzek, on the other hand, has struggled with Colorado at 2-6 with a 5.31 ERA. It doesn't help that he's a flyball pitcher in Coors Field, but Matzek clearly has some things to work on still and the Rockies are letting him take his bumps and bruises at the big league level. The Diamondbacks should be able to take advantage of that in this one. Colorado has been terrible on the road as usual with a 17-39 mark away from home. Play Arizona. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Los Angeles Dodgers -124 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Los Angeles Dodgers over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) Great game today in Los Angeles as two of the best teams in baseball square off. This could be a potential World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Angels and we'll see two of their best hurlers taking the mound. Garrett Richards has been quite a story for the Halos in 2014. At 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, Richards has to be in the preliminary Cy Young discussion for the AL. But as good as Richards has been, Dodgers' starter Zack Greinke has been just a little bit better. Greinke is also the best home pitcher in baseball over the last several seasons and the Dodgers have taken full advantage. The team is an impressive 20-4 in Greinke's last 24 home starts. Greinke is also coming off of back-to-back brilliant performances against the Braves and Giants. He allowed a total of just one run in those outings while accumulating a 23-2 K/BB ratio. I also give the Dodgers the edge offensively as they have the slightly better lineup top to bottom and Matt Kemp is absolutely scorching the ball at the moment. In the 14 games since the All-Star break (excluding Sunday), Kemp is hitting .356 with four home runs and 13 RBI. He's finally healthy and that makes the Dodgers lineup even scarier than it has been all season. As for bullpens, it's pretty close to a draw as both have had their bumps and bruises this season. Joe Thatcher is on the disabled list for the Halos and that could be huge if Richards doesn't go really deep in this game. The line is far too short, so we'll take the Dodgers as our Game. |
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08-03-14 | Cincinnati Reds -111 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Reds are missing two of their best players in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, but this is a fairly deep team that still has a chance to make some noise in the National League. The Reds are going to be relying more on their pitching now, and that puts the pressure on a staff that is capable of handling it. Today's starter Mike Leake doesn't get nearly enough credit for his accomplishments. He comes in with just an 8-9 record, but he holds a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 22 starts. He's improved every aspect of his game in 2014 and it's showed up in his peripheral statistics. Leake has improved his strikeout and groundball rates while simultaneously cutting down on his walk totals. Leake has also been one of the best road pitchers in baseball over the last few years, so that makes him an even more attractive option today as he starts in Miami. The Marlins have been fighting hard to get back into contention, but I just don't think they have the horses. They have a good young nucleus that will be important for the future, but there aren't enough role players around them. Jacob Turner is one of the guys that is still trying to prove himself for Miami. The young right-hander was once a highly-touted arm in the Tigers farm system, but he hasn't been able to make much of an impression with the Marlins. Turner enters today's game with a robust 5.69 ERA and 1.57 WHIP despite some decent secondary numbers. The Marlins are just 2-7 in Turner's last nine home starts overall. Cincinnati has a big edge on the mound and I still like their roster a little bit better overall despite the injuries. Leake should get the job done here, so take the Reds as our Game of the Week. |
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08-02-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox -123 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -123 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) Neither of these teams is playing for anything this season, but that doesn't mean we can't find an advantage in this matchup. There isn't much differentiation between the White Sox and Twins overall, but I do give Chicago the edge offensively (especially with Joe Mauer out). But the biggest edge in this game is on the mound. Scott Carroll doesn't have very good numbers on the season, but he's getting better every start. Over his last four outings, the 29-year old has a 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Three of those four starts were on the road as well, including his last outing against these same Twins. He pitched six innings in that game while allowing just a single run on four hits and a walk. His confidence is growing and Carroll could be a nice guy to ride down the stretch for bettors. Yohan Pino gets the nod for the Twins. He's had a mediocre season after a career in the minor leagues for eight years. He doesn't offer anything fancy and has a propensity to give up the long ball as well. The White Sox are a swing for the fences kind of team, so they match up extremely well here. Take the home team at a very fair price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-29-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Tampa Bay Rays -131 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Tampa Bay Rays over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays are red hot and the price can't be set high enough on their games. The Rays are 21-6 over their last 27 contests and have jumped back into contention in the AL playoff race. Their pitching has been the key as they haven't allowed more than four runs in a game since July 11th. Alex Cobb isn't putting up the type of numbers that everyone expected, but they're certainly still respectable. He's 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA, but he's coming off of his best performance of the season in his last start against the Cardinals. Cobb went seven innings without allowing a run and had 10 strikeouts without a walk. That's the kind of start that builds tons of confidence and should get him back on track. The Milwaukee Brewers have been coasting after getting off to a hot start in 2014. They were 20-7 to start the campaign, but are just 39-41 since then. Matt Garza takes the ball for them today, and he hasn't looked like himself for the most part this season. His strikeout rate is down, walk rate is up and he has been wildly inconsistent from start to start. I'm not sure which Garza we'll see today, but the Rays certainly are familiar with the right-hander from his days in Tampa. It's hard to get in the way of this Rays team right now. The price is a little steep, but I still see value. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-25-14 | Miami Marlins v. Houston Astros -125 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Houston Astros over Miami Marlins (8:10pm EST) The Houston Astros and Miami Marlins won't be making a postseason appearance this season, but both squads have quality youngsters and some hope for the future. As far as 2014, I like the way the Astros have steadily improved as the season has progressed. Houston was a putrid 12-27 on May 12th and has gone a respectable 30-33 since then. They still have a long way to go, but with the talent they keep bringing up from the minors it will be sooner than most people think before they are contenders. The Marlins, on the other hand, got off to a quick start this season and have been slowly fading since. Miami is just 9-14 over their last 23 games overall. It will be a battle of left-handers today as Dallas Keuchel battles Brad Hand. Keuchel has had a breakthrough campaign at 9-6 with a 3.29 ERA but is still floating under the radar a little bit. He nearly made the AL All-Star team on a loaded pitching staff. Hand has been fortunate to get a chance in the Miami rotation. He was awful in the bullpen earlier in the season, and has just simply been mediocre since becoming a starter. He has a 4.86 ERA and 1.64 WHIP overall. One big difference between these teams is the divisions they play in. The AL West is clearly the best division in baseball with three teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. As a result, the Astros have played one of the tougher schedules in baseball. Conversely, the Marlins have played against a mediocre NL East division. If we flip-flopped these teams in the other's divisions, the records could easily be flip-flopped as well. I think Houston is the better team overall and they have the much better starting pitcher on the mound today. Throw in the home field advantage and the interleague edge, and the Astros are the choice here as our Interleague Game of the Year. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-22-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Pittsburgh Pirates -111 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Pittsburgh Pirates over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:05pm EST) After a slow start to the 2014 campaign, the Pittsburgh Pirates are coming on strong. They are 34-21 over their last 55 games and they are the most impressive team in the NL over that span. Timely hitting and consistent pitching has been the key as this roster has great chemistry overall. The Pirates also play the game the right way and our as fundamentally sound as they come. They've been getting contributions from the entire 25-man roster, including some surprise production from today's starter Vance Worley. The right-hander had basically been written off after a terrible year in Minnesota last season. But the Pirates worked with him in the minor leagues and Worley has come through with a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in six games. His control has been impeccable as he's walking just 1.3 batters per nine innings - less than half of his career average. Today he'll get a banged up Dodgers lineup that could be without Yasiel Puig and/or Hanley Ramirez. The Dodgers are starting to play better too, but I don't like their starter Josh Beckett today. Beckett has been dealing with a serious hip injury and has admitted that he's not 100%. That could be a huge issue as Beckett isn't a spring chicken anymore. The Pirates are one of the better hitting teams in the NL and should be able to capitalize if Beckett isn't quite right. Take Pittsburgh in this one as our Game. |
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07-21-14 | San Francisco Giants +120 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 7-4 | Win | 120 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 San Francisco Giants over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) The San Francisco Giants have put together a great season at 54-44 through the first 98 games. They've done it with a balanced effort and contributions from nearly the entire 25-man roster. One guy who they weren't sure they'd be able to count on coming into the 2014 season is today's starter Ryan Vogelsong. After a tough 2013 campaign with a 5.73 ERA, the right-hander has bounced back nicely this season. He has improved his strikeout and walk rates, and brought his ERA down to 3.86 in 19 starts. He'll get a Phillies team today that is more worried about who they are going to trade than they are with winning ballgames. The Phils are a mess right now at 43-55, and the rebuilding process is set to kick off soon. Cliff Lee is one of the guys that will get heavy attention and this is his first major league start back from the disabled list. I generally don't like betting against the crafty southpaw, but if there's a time to do it's now while he's rusty. The Giants have also hit lefties well this season overall. Philadelphia has been horrible at home this season at 19-29, which is the worst in the NL. The Giants, meanwhile, have been road warriors at 26-19. This one sets up well for San Francisco and we get a nice underdog price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-07-14 | Atlanta Braves -125 v. New York Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 Atlanta Braves over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The Atlanta Braves head to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets in the first of four games. The Braves are playing their best baseball of the season right now with nine wins in their last 10 games, including a three-game sweep of the Mets just a week ago. Timely hitting and some excellent pitching has been the key to their surge. Today's starter Mike Minor hasn't been one of the pitchers that have stepped up however. It's been quite the opposite in fact, as Minor has a 7.55 ERA over his last five outings. But his peripheral numbers haven't been nearly as bad, and Minor hasn't looked any different on the mound this season compared to prior years. I fully expect him to bounce back and today versus the Mets is a good place to start. The Mets have dropped eight of 11 and are looking to Daisuke Matsuzaka to keep them in the game today. Matsuzaka was effective as a reliever but he's been terrible since joining the rotation. Out of the pen Daisuke posted a 2.22 ERA, but as a starter he's at 4.81. He hasn't made it past the sixth inning in any start and that opens the door to the Mets awful bullpen. The Braves should take care of business offensively, and I also expect Minor to get back on track. Take Atlanta. |
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07-05-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -129 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers (4:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are starting to play like everyone expected, but we're still seeing some reasonable lines on them. Cincinnati is 15-7 over their last 22 contests, including taking the first game of this big series versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. We like them again here with the red hot Homer Bailey taking the hill. Bailey is 4-1 over his last seven starts with a 3.23 ERA and 44-12 K/BB ratio. His velocity is also creeping up and you can see the confidence coming back after a slow start to the 2014 campaign. Matt Garza goes for Milwaukee and he's been mediocre at best for most of the season. I give Bailey the check mark in this one and I also give small edges to the Reds as far as offense and bullpen goes. With the Reds at home, I think this line should be about 10-15 cents higher. Take Cincinnati. |
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07-03-14 | Texas Rangers -111 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) There's no question that the Texas Rangers have fallen on hard times. Injuries eventually got the best of them, and now they've lost 12 of 14 games to drop 10 games below the .500 mark. But if they have one guy who's going to break a cold streak it's today's starter Yu Darvish. The Japanese sensation is 8-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 15 starts. The line one this game is more reflective of what the team has done recently, so I think we're getting a huge discount with Darvish pitching. He'll face an Orioles team that is a bit overrated in my book. The O's are 45-39, but the AL East has surprisingly turned into one of the worst divisions in all of baseball. Wei-Yin Chen toes the rubber for Baltimore today. Chen is probably Baltimore's best starting pitcher, but that's not exactly saying a lot. He has struggled a bit of late, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts. The Rangers offense isn't as potent as it has been in recent years, but they still pose a decent threat. With Darvish backing them up, I think the Rangers can finally break through today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates -146 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #956 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates made a dramatic come from behind win last night versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. They trailed 2-0 heading into the 9th and were able to put three runs on the board to get the victory 3-2. It's been a horrific season for the D-Backs, but a game like that brings them to a new low. Ike Davis singled in the game-winning run which led to the standard walk-off celebration for the Pirates. It was one of those wins that creates energy that can carry forward into the next day, and I fully expect that to be the case in this one. The Pirates have been on quite a roll going 14-7 over their last 21 games and are moving up the standings quickly. Charlie Morton gets the nod for them today and he was dominant in his last outing versus the Rays. He went seven innings in that start allowing just two earned runs and striking out 11 batters with just one walk. It was his best effort of the season and a huge confidence builder. Arizona counters with Chase Anderson. The young right-hander looked really good in his first couple of starts after getting called up, but he's been mediocre of late as the league has made some adjustments. I'm not sure his teammates will give him much support after getting the wind knocked out them last night. This one has a Pirates winner written all over it. |
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06-30-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros -102 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (8:10pm EST) Taijuan Walker finally makes his 2014 debut for the Mariners and Seattle fans are excited. Walker has been one of the most highly-touted prospects in Seattle's system over the last couple of years. He made a brief cameo last season and performed well in three starts. Walker was slated to start the season in the big league rotation, but a shoulder injury put him in the disabled list. He's made eight starts in the minors before heading to the bigs, but he wasn't as dominant in Triple-A as most expected him to be. With all of the attention he has gotten so far, it may add some extra pressure on him in his first outing. He'll face an underrated Astros lineup that has increased its production as the season has went on. Collin McHugh will pitch for Houston and he's been one of the big surprises in 2014. McHugh has gone from relatively unknown to a guy who looks like he belongs in the All-Star game this season. He enters today's game with 2.86 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts, and is averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He's still flying under the radar a bit, evidenced by the low price pitching at home today. We'll take the Astros in a game we see a lot of value. |
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06-26-14 | Detroit Tigers -119 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #967 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers have begun to slide but who can blame them? No team has endured more injuries than the Rangers have in 2014, and it's pretty amazing that Ron Washington was able to keep it together for this long. Texas has dropped seven straight games to their lowest point of the season. To make matters worse, they're in the toughest division in baseball so things probably aren't going to get any better. Today they send one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball to the mound in Nick Martinez. The 23-year old has been knocked around since entering the rotation over a month ago. In nine starts this season, Martinez has a 5.06 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He's walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out and he doesn't induce many groundballs. There really isn't anything that Martinez is doing well at the moment, so he either needs to be sent back to the bullpen or down to the minor leagues. But as long as he's in the rotation, we'll continue to play against him. Today the Tigers will get their cracks against him. Detroit has suddenly turned it on with six straight wins, and the offense has really picked it up. Over their last six-game winning streak, Detroit is averaging 6.5 runs per contest. Rick Porcello gets the nod on the mound. He's putting together another solid season at 9-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He has to redeem himself after the Rangers knocked him around pretty good in Detroit about a month ago. I'm confident that he will and that the Tigers will score plenty of runs to support him. This one could be over early on, as the Tigers should roll in our 6-unit June Game of the Week. |
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06-24-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Arizona Diamondbacks -122 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Arizona Diamondbacks over Cleveland Indians (9:40pm EST) It's tough backing this Arizona Diamondbacks team right now, but we've found a really good spot tonight. Left-hander Wade Miley toes the rubber for the D-Backs and I really like what he's shown us this season. His ERA is 4.62, but that isn't representative of the way he has pitched in 2014. He has an excellent 93-32 K/BB ratio and a modest 1.28 WHIP. He's gotten into some trouble with the long ball, but a lot of that is just noise as he pitches in an extreme hitter's park. Miley should excel tonight as Cleveland doesn't have a lineup built to hit against southpaws. Cleveland is hitting just .239 against lefties this season - worst in the American League. The Tribe goes with Justin Masterson. He's had a shaky season marred by inconsistency, so it's hard to know what to expect from him today. Arizona is 14-4 in their last 18 interleague home games. The Indians are 16-43 in their last 59 interleague road games. This one sets up well for Arizona, so we'll lay the small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-23-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -109 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) Don't look now, but the defending National League champions are heating up. The Cards have won 10 of 14 and are making their move in the NL Central. This definitely shouldn't come as a surprise since this year's Cardinals roster is even better than last year's edition. But it seems like the betting markets still haven't fully reacted to the Cardinals playing better. Today they are very small favorite against a Colorado Rockies team that is decimated by injuries right now. The Rockies are missing three guys from the starting lineup and four starting pitchers. Since the end of the May, Colorado is just 7-19 and is now out of contention. Jhoulys Chacin toes the rubber for Colorado in this one and he's been a big disappointment so far in 2014. His velocity has tailed off and he has an ERA that is nearly a full run over his career level. There were some injury issues earlier in the season, so there's a good chance something is still lingering for the right-hander. St. Louis counters with Lance Lynn today. Lynn has been somewhat of an enigma at times, but when you look at his overall numbers they are certainly more than adequate. The 27-year old is 7-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 15 starts. In his four-year career, he's always had an ERA in the 3's despite some shaky performances. The Cardinals bullpen has been pitching well, so if Lynn can go his usual six or seven innings without getting into major trouble, they should be in good shape. St. Louis has the advantage all around, so we'll take them at a nice price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (7:15pm EST) It's hard to believe that Justin Verlander has gone from the very best pitcher in the sport a couple of years ago, to a guy that is probably one of the five worst pitchers going right now. So much has changed in a short time that many are scratching their heads trying to figure it out. It's probably a combination of factors including diminished velocity, a big contract in his back pocket, lingering injury issues and Kate Upton. But whatever it is, Verlander isn't right and he's one of the top guys to bet against at the moment. The oddsmakers and betting markets are still giving Verlander some respect and it's hard to comprehend. He comes into today's start with a 4.98 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and he's getting worse by the start. Over his last three outings, the former Cy Young and MVP is 0-3 with a 9.16 ERA and 2.04 WHIP. His K/BB ratio in those outings is just 12-10 and many hitters have commented that his stuff is very easy to pick up now. The Indians will get their chance to take some shots at Verlander today and they should do well given all of their left-handed bats. The Indians have hit right-handers about as well as anyone this season and they've seen plenty of Verlander over the years. Trevor Bauer will deal with the Tigers hitters and I like what I've seen from the youngster in 2014. He's finally blossoming into the kind of pitcher everyone had hoped for when he was in Arizona. He's striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings and has a respectable 4.20 ERA. His stuff is electric and he's one of the more cerebral pitchers in the game. Bauer is here to stay in the Indians rotation and I expect a big year from him. The Tigers have dropped 20 of 31 games and are still trying to stop this spiral. With the big edge on the mound, I like the Indians to take this one at home. |
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06-19-14 | Los Angeles Angels -128 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Cleveland Indians (12:05pm EST) This one was delayed one day because of rain, but that doesn't change the handicap. The Angels and Indians will play the rubber game of what is now a three-game set in Cleveland. C.J. Wilson toes the rubber for the Halos and he's about as consistent as it comes when you are talking about starting pitchers. The veteran right-hander enters today's contest 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 14 starts. Since becoming a starter, Wilson has posted ERAs of 3.35, 2.94, 3.83, 3.39 and the 3.50 he has so far in 2014. You know exactly what you're going to get from him and that makes it easier to back him in this game. The Indians do not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In fact, they are hitting just .241 as a team against southpaws on the season. Justin Masterson goes for the Tribe and he's been about the opposite of consistent throughout his career. This season has been no exception as he comes in with a 5.05 ERA despite mixing in some brilliant performances. This is on the heels of a season in which he posted a 3.45 ERA. The Angels have one of the top offenses in baseball and it's even better now that it's healthy. Josh Hamilton missed extensive time, but he's back in the lineup and is raking. It's hard to find any areas where the Angels don't have the advantage tonight. As a result, we're on the Angels in this spot. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-15-14 | San Diego Padres -118 v. New York Mets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #903 San Diego Padres over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres and New York Mets aren't going anywhere in 2014 and this game probably won't be particularly exciting for the casual fan. But that doesn't mean we can't make some money on what looks like a great opportunity. Ian Kennedy has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season, but he hasn't got the kind of attention he has deserved. He comes in at 5-7 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He's striking out a career-best 9.5 batters per nine innings while walking a career-low 2.1 at the same time. Kennedy has even increased his groundball rate and lowered his home run rate in 2014. Skeptics may point to the fact that half of his starts are in Petco Park, which is one of the top pitcher's parks in baseball. But Kennedy has actually been better on the road than he has at home. Today he'll see a weak-hitting Mets team that was shut out yesterday by rookie Jesse Hahn. That made nine losses in their last 11 games, and their hitting has been the culprit during the collapse. The Mets averaged just 3.0 runs per game during that span despite going up against mediocre pitching. Kennedy certainly will be one of the toughest arms they've faced in some time, so I don't expect many runs to cross the plate for New York. That puts the pressure on Mets starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. The veteran right-hander was forced into the rotation due to other injuries and he hasn't fit in very well so far. His overall ERA is 2.95, but that is deceiving for two reasons. First off, most of his innings have been out of the bullpen pitching one inning at a time. Starting is much more difficult when hitters get to see you multiple times. In addition, Matsuzaka has been extremely fortunate as he is allowing a BABIP of just .204. He's walking 6.4 batters per nine innings, which is amongst the highest in the majors. San Diego is a poor hitting team, but any major league team can score runs when they're given free passes. Daisuke will likely only go five or six innings today, and that opens the game up for the Padres as the Mets bullpen has struggled for most of the season. I expect San Diego to get an early lead on the Mets and Kennedy should be able to hold it the way he's been throwing. When the game gets into the hands of the respective bullpens, I like San Diego there as well. All signs point to the Padres here and that's why it's our 10-unit National League Game of the Year. |
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06-14-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates -127 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins (4:10pm EST) We've been riding the Pittsburgh Pirates lately and we'll do it again here on Saturday. As was pointed out a couple of times already, this is an improved version of the Pittsburgh team from a few weeks back. Gregory Polanco is one of the biggest reasons why, as he was called up from Triple-A earlier this week. All he did yesterday was go 5-for-7 at the plate, including the game-winning home run in the 13th inning. He's a game-changer and makes this Pittsburgh team a contender. I like the pitching matchup here today as Charlie Morton goes up against Randy Wolf. That's a huge mismatch in Pittsburgh's favor as Morton is throwing the ball very well and Wolf is a bomb waiting to implode. We could break it down further, but it's really that simple. The Pirates are 10-5 in their last 15 games and we'll continue to let them cash tickets for us. They have the better overall team and a big edge on the mound, so this price is very reasonable. Take the Pirates as our 5-unit Game of the Week. |
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06-12-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -117 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have a new look and I think it could pay dividends in the coming weeks. First off, Russell Martin and Jason Grilli are back in the fold after missing several weeks with injuries. Those were two of the most important pieces to the puzzle for the Pirates last year and they are leaders on this squad. Pittsburgh also finally brought up Gregory Polanco a few days ago and he's one of the top prospects in the game. He should make an impact with his bat and in the field based on all of the scouting reports. You're also starting to see the signs of a run as Pittsburgh is 8-5 in their last 13 games. If they can keep winning at that rate, they'll be back in the playoff race in a matter of weeks. Today they get the lovable losers - the Chicago Cubs. It's been another disappointing season on the north side of Chicago in 2014. The Cubs have the worst record in the NL and the minor league ball club seems to be all anyone cares about in the organization. That bodes well for bettors looking to make some money going against them. The Cubs clearly have the edge on the mound today, but that's the only area where they are better. Starting pitching is generally overrated in the markets, and this is a perfect example. Jeff Samardzija has a sparkling 2.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but he only has two wins to show for it. The offense and bullpen have let him down in a big way this season and there's no reason to expect it to change. The line on this game is a bit lower than expected, so we'll take the Pirates here. |
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06-09-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Cincinnati Reds -105 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:10pm EST) Good spot here for the Cincinnati Reds as they catch the Los Angeles Dodgers at the perfect time. First off, the Dodgers just finished a series in Colorado and will have to now travel across country to Cincinnati for this one. Adjusting from the high altitude to a normal environment usually takes more than 24 hours, so advantage to the Reds there. Los Angeles is also pretty banged up at the moment, with Carl Crawford and Juan Uribe on the disabled list and Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon big question marks for tonight. The Reds go with crafty southpaw Tony Cingrani in tonight's game. He hasn't been great so far in 2014, but the Dodgers have had all kinds of trouble with left-handers all season long so I like his chances. The Dodgers are hitting just .208 against lefties - worst in the NL. Dan Haren toes the rubber for Los Angeles and he's struggled a bit after a red hot start to the 2014 season. Haren has given up at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and he's striking out fewer batters in the process. He has just 18 strikeouts to his name over his last six starts, which spans 37 innings of work. The Reds are still without their best player Joey Votto, but they still have some weapons in the lineup and have managed to stay afloat at 29-32. We'll take Cincinnati here at home at a nice price. |
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06-08-14 | Houston Astros -106 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 14-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) We're leaning on the surging Astros once again today as they take on the Twins. Houston is 16-10 over their last 26 games after an 11-26 start to the season. They're clearly not quite as good as their recent record indicates, but they're certainly not as bad as the way they opened the 2014 campaign. The real answer is somewhere in the middle and I really think this is a team that could play close to .500 baseball for the remainder of the season. The lineup keeps improving as they are bringing quality talent and the young guys are learning more and more each day. The rotation is better than originally anticipated and one of the reasons is today's starter Collin McHugh. The young right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight starts in 2014. This is after posting an enormous 10.04 ERA in limited work last season and bouncing around three different organizations in a two-year span. The betting markets haven't quite caught up to him and the Astros yet. They are small favorites here, but this line should be 10-15 cents higher based on my ratings. The Astros have the better overall team and are sending out the better starter on the mound. So we'll take Houston once again. |
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06-07-14 | Cleveland Indians +110 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 Cleveland Indians over Texas Rangers (4:05pm EST) They started the season slowly, but the Cleveland Indians are finally playing like they are capable of. The Tribe has won six of seven and more closely resemble the team that surprised everyone and made the playoffs last season. Cleveland doesn't rely on any superstars to carry them, as they have one of the more balanced teams in baseball. It seems like someone different steps up every day to contribute, and they're usually not household names. One guy that has been getting the job done is today's starter Josh Tomlin. The 29-year old right-hander wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation this season, but he was given a shot due to injuries. So far he's been impressive with a 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six games. Tomlin relies on his impeccable control to be successful. He holds an extremely low 1.4 walk rate per innings and has induced lots of weak contact as well. He'll face a battered Texas Rangers squad that looks nothing like it did earlier this spring. Injuries have ravaged the Rangers roster and it's a minor miracle that they've hovered around the .500 mark for so long. The bottom will eventually fall out for Texas as they can't stay afloat with the guys they are trotting out day in and day out. Nick Tepesch gets the ball today and he's another guy that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation on day one. He's filled in nicely so far at 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA, but his stuff isn't overwhelming and he'll provide mediocre production at best. The Indians have hit righties extremely well overall, with a .264 average on the season (versus just .236 against lefties). As a result, they should be able to jump on Tepesch and get into a suspect Texas bullpen early on. The wrong team is being favored in this game so we're on the Indians for our Game of the Week. |
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06-06-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies UNDER 10 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 103 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10-Unit Play. Take Under Los Angeles (NL) at Colorado (8:40 p.m. Friday, June 6) The Dodgers and Rockies both come into tonight's contest mired in slumps. The Dodgers have lost six of their last eight games while Matt Kemp (4-38) and Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez (combined 2-28 last four games) haven't been swinging the bats very well. The Rockies have lost 7 straight and were swept by the Diamondbacks being outscored 32-17. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been nearly unhittable on the road as he is 4-0 with a 0.56 ERA with 32 strikeouts in as many innings. He will be opposite one of the Rockies top prospects Eddie Butler who will be making his major league debut. Butler was 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA in his last four minor league starts and could be very effective without much tape on him for the Los Angeles hitters. The under is 4-1 in the Rockies last 5 home games versus a team with a winning record and the under is 4-1 in the Dodgers last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. I think both pitchers will limit the others offense and this one stays under. |
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06-04-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians -140 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) Today's game is all about Corey Kluber, who is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball at the moment. The Indians right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last six starts. But even more impressively, he has a 60-8 K/BB ratio and has dominated AL hitters. He'll face a lackluster Red Sox lineup that is just 11th in the AL in runs scored this season. I think the Red Sox will eventually find a groove offensively, but right now they are fade material. Youngster Brandon Workman goes for Boston. He's an unproven commodity at the moment, but I wasn't impressed with his effort in the minors. He seems like he needs a little more seasoning, so I expect the Indians to touch him up pretty good in this one. The Tribe hit righties very well, so that makes things even tougher on Workman. We're paying a decent price on Cleveland here, but there's still plenty of value. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-31-14 | Los Angeles Angels +115 v. Oakland A's | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm EST) I love what I've seen so far from the Angels and A's this season. Based on my ratings, these are the two best teams in the AL and I expect it to be a dogfight to the win the AL West between these two. Today's matchup features one of the pitchers I have enjoyed backing frequently this season against a pitcher that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation in 2014. Tyler Skaggs is the former and he's been a huge boon to an Angel's rotation that sorely needed some quality innings after a disaster last year. Skaggs was acquired in the offseason in a trade for Mark Trumbo and it's paid off. Skaggs enters today's game 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 10 starts. His peripheral numbers say he should be even a little bit better than that, and I agree. He should continue to get better as he gets comfortable in the AL. On the other side is Oakland starter Tommy Milone. The A's were perfectly happy with Milone coming out of the bullpen this season as they found better options. But injuries forced Milone back into his customary starting role, and the results have been mediocre at best. While he carries an ERA in the mid-3's, Milone has put up some weak peripherals thus far with a 4.79 xFIP. He gives up a ton of fly balls, which is generally ok at home. But that will cost him on occasion, and don't be surprised if the Angels make him pay a couple of times today. All in all, the line is probably close to accurate. However, I really like the pitching matchup here for the Angels and think they find a way to get the job done. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-29-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -127 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants (8:15pm EST) Thursday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants is more about what is going to happen rather than what has happened. San Francisco starter Ryan Vogelsong has put together a very nice season at 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. By all accounts, he's throwing some of the best baseball of his career. But at the age of 36, I'm not sure we can buy into Vogelsong all of a sudden becoming a top level starter. His career ERA is 4.43 and last season he checked in at 5.73. He hasn't added any new pitches and unless he has discovered the fountain of youth, we should expect regression from Vogelsong. On the other hand, is Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals. Garcia has spent more time on the disabled list than the baseball diamond over the last couple of years. But when he's been healthy, Garcia has been legit. He has a 3.46 career ERA and is only 27-years old, where he should be entering his prime. As a result, I think Garcia is a big undervalued in the betting marketplace. St. Louis as a team may be a bit undervalued as a team as they haven't gotten off to the kind of start that was expected. However, they are still 29-23 and on pace for 90+ wins. The Giants, meanwhile, are 33-19 and are playing a bit above their heads. The market may be giving them a little too much credit for a hot start. The value lies with St. Louis today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-26-14 | Los Angeles Angels -136 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -136 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Los Angeles Angels over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) We've been going against Chris Young of the Mariners as much as we can, even though it's had mixed results so far. There's no question he is much worse than his 3.53 ERA indicates, and I doubt he will last the whole season in the Seattle rotation. I like the Angels to rough him up early and often in what should be a route today. |
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05-24-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -135 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (4:10pm EST) It's not very often you find David Price lined this low at home against a last place team. But that's what we have today, as the Rays host the Red Sox. These two squads have vastly underachieved through the first quarter or so of the season, but they both have the talent to bounce back quickly. Price isn't putting up his normal numbers in 2014, but all of his peripheral statistics are looking good. He's striking out more batters, walking far less and is still an intimidating force on the mound. Before long he'll have his ERA where it belongs, so I'm not worried. The Rays know how to get their pitchers dealing and Price is the best they have. On the other side is veteran Jake Peavy, who is a shell of his former self. The 33-year old checks in with a 4.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in nine starts this season. His biggest problem has been his control, as Peavy is walking 4.5 batters per nine innings - more than double his walk rate last season. The Rays have been one of the better teams at home over the last five or six seasons and this price is just too low with an ace on the hill. The play is Tampa Bay. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-21-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Texas Rangers over Seattle Mariners (2:05pm EST) If Chris Young were a cat, he'd be working on his last life. The 35-year old right-hander has bounced around the majors his entire career and was nearly out of baseball for good a couple of times. His fastball barely hits 85mph on the radar gun and his control isn't particularly good. He doesn't induce many groundballs and opposing hitters don't fear him. But somehow Young latched on with the Mariners and so far he's miraculously posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Based on his skill set and peripheral statistics, Young should have an ERA in the 5's. He's been aided by a ridiculously low .199 BABIP and he's pitching much better with runners in scoring position. As a result, once those numbers regress to their normal levels, we should see the real Chris Young - and it won't be pretty. The Texas Rangers will try to expose Young today in Arlington. The Rangers have been struggling at the plate most of the season, but they've hit well the last couple of games. They've been dealing with injuries all season long, so they haven't had the consistency they would have liked. Nick Tepesch gets the ball for the Rangers. Tepesch looked really good in his first outing of the season last time out. He struck out eight batters in 5.1 innings of work and allowed just two hits. He also threw the ball really well in Triple-A, posting a 1.58 ERA in seven starts. Texas has the better pitcher on the mound in this one and their offense rates better than Seattle's. Throw in the home field advantage and we get a bargain price on the Rangers. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-14-14 | Cleveland Indians -101 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Cleveland Indians over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) One of the most underrated starting pitchers in the AL is Indians starter Corey Kluber. He was great for the Tribe in 2013 going 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA and an excellent K/BB ratio. This season he is even better, increasing his strikeouts by 20% and also inducing more groundballs than ever. At just 28 years of age, I expect Kluber to continue to improve and possibly get to an All-Star level. He won't easily be confused with Toronto's start in this one Dustin McGowan. McGowan has struggled with injuries the last couple of years and his stuff is clearly diminished. In seven starts this season he has a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His K/BB ratio is an unacceptable 22-15 and I don't think he can make it through the season with those kinds of numbers. So we have a big advantage for the Indians on the mound today, while the teams are mostly even in the other important aspects. I have both teams rated roughly the same on offense and in the bullpen, so the difference in this game will be the starting pitching. Take the Tribe tonight. |
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05-13-14 | Detroit Tigers +101 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 4-1 | Win | 101 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #965 Detroit Tigers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) We played the Tigers successfully yesterday and we like them again today for the same reasons. Detroit simply isn't getting enough respect by the betting markets despite holding the best record in baseball. They have an excellent every day lineup, an elite starting rotation and one of the best closers in the history of baseball. But despite it all, we're still seeing lines that are far too short. Tiger's starters have allowed three earned runs or less in 14 straight games, with an ERA of 2.07 during that stretch. Drew Smyly will get the opportunity to extend that streak and I like his chances to do it. The 24-year old southpaw comes in with a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and has been one of the unsung heroes of this ballclub the past couple of seasons. I don't like what I've seen from the Baltimore Orioles so far in 2014. They are leading the AL East but have a negative run differential on the season. Their offense is severely overrated as they are 13th in the AL in runs scored and most of that is due to their impatience at the plate. They've been particularly bad against left-handed pitching this season, so Smyly should be able to shut them down. The Tigers are probably licking their chops with Ubaldo Jimenez toeing the rubber for the O's. He's been awful once again with a 4.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his first season in Baltimore. This one could get out of hand quickly. Take the Tigers in a route. |
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05-09-14 | San Francisco Giants -127 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Two bitter rivals have at it again in Dodgers Stadium tonight. This line is tough to figure out as the Giants have a massive edge on the mound with ace Madison Bumgarner going against Paul Maholm. The market obviously knows this is a disparity, but I think they are underestimating the Giants offense more than anything. San Francisco is 4th in the NL in runs scored despite playing in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks and they're second in home runs. The Dodgers are right there with them, but the perception is that the Los Angeles offense is leaps and bounds better than the Giants. It's not the case now and I don't think it will be. One area where the Giants seem to have an edge is in the bullpen, where the Giants currently have a league-leading 1.81 ERA. They won't be able to maintain that low of a number all season, but they have several reliable options at the moment. Add it all up and the Giants should be higher favorites here. |
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05-08-14 | Chicago Cubs +109 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 12-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
It's not easy to pull the trigger on the Cubs at 11-21, but I like their pitching edge today. Jake Arrieta has pitched really well since switching leagues and coming to the Chicago. Most pitchers that go from the AL to NL see vast improvement, and Arrieta is no exception. Last season the right-hander was 4-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 with the Cubs. He missed the first month of the season this year, but his first start last week was impressive. He shut down a tough Cardinals lineup, going 5.1 innings without allowing a run. The White Sox are a banged up team right now, with three key players out of the lineup - Eaton, Garcia and Dunn. They've been scoring a lot of runs this season, but that's mostly due to the AL Player of the Month Jose Abreu. Now that the cat is out of the bag on Abreu, I'm sure opposing pitchers have taken notice. Rookie Scott Carroll goes for the Sox today. He's 29-years old after floating around in the minor leagues for nearly seven years. That's not a good sign and his results should bear that out. He pitched well in his first two starts, but he was extremely fortunate to work out of some jams. In his two starts he only struck out a total of three batters, so the Cubs will make some contact against him. Take the Cubs here in a rare win. |
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05-07-14 | Chicago Cubs -104 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The Crosstown Classic switches venues as the series shifts to US Cellular Field - home of the Chicago White Sox. The Sox are the better baseball team, but there are several reasons to like the Cubs in today's matchup. First and foremost, the Cubs have a vastly underrated starting pitcher on the mound in Travis Wood. He doesn't get much attention playing on a bad team, but Wood is putting up great numbers all around this season. He's even capable of getting some hits at the plate and hit a home run for the fourth consecutive season earlier this year. On the other side is southpaw John Danks, who has been one of the shakiest starters in the AL this season. Danks is coming off surgery and hasn't regained his velocity, so he's relying on his control more than ever. It hasn't worked. Danks is walking 5.0 batters per nine innings while only striking out 5.2. He's a gritty pitcher, but grit can only get you so far. The Cubs have hit lefties surprisingly well this season, so I expect them to plate some runs for a change. If Wood pitches like he usually does, then we should be able to put one in the win column with the Cubs. |
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05-03-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros +115 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) The Houston Astros are still the worst team in the major leagues, but they have a few bright spots. One of those is today's starter Dallas Keuchel. The 26-year old left-hander has really turned some heads this season, posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in five starts. His peripheral statistics are even more impressive as Keuchel is striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings and inducing an insane 64% groundball rate. He has All-Star potential and has certainly started out the season at an All-Star level. On the other side is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. The Seattle starter is making his first start after dealing with a finger injury all spring. He did make one rehab start but it wasn't particularly impressive. I doubt the M's will let him go past five or six innings, so that will give the Astros several shots at a mediocre bullpen. Both of these clubs have struggled out of the gates offensively, with the Mariners in 14th in the AL and the Astros 15th. With no distinct advantage there, I think Keuchel is the difference in this game. Take the Astros as the home underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-02-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Pittsburgh Pirates -134 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Pittsburgh Pirates over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't off to the kind of start they would have hoped for, but they've got the right guy on the mound to turn things around on Friday. The 23-year old right-hander has quickly developed into an ace with just 24 major league starts under his belt. Cole enters today's contest with a 3.18 ERA and he seemingly gets better and better with each outing. He is coming off of a great performance in St. Louis where he held a dangerous Cardinals lineup to just one run in seven innings. That was on the heels of a start in which Cole held the red hot Brewers to one run in eight innings. The Toronto Blue Jays will have the daunting task of going up against Cole today, and this will be the first time they have seen the young phenom. Advantage Cole for at least the first couple of times through the order. Brandon Morrow gets the ball for the Jays and he's coming off of the worst pitching performance in the majors this season. Morrow walked eight batters in just 2.2 innings of work before getting bounced against the Red Sox last week. He looked completely lost on the mound in that start and I don't think he has the confidence to turn things around right away. Morrow has struggled with consistency over the last few seasons and has a heavy 6.04 ERA in five starts this year. Last season he pitched just half a season after dealing with injuries and he finished with a 5.63 ERA. The Pirates haven't been hitting much this season, but they are a fairly patient team at the plate and should be able put some pressure on Morrow again. Morrow could get bounced very early again, which could make matters worse as the Jays pen has really been laboring of late. All signs point to a Pittsburgh victory today and we're on it as our May Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-25-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -132 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays have done it again. They've developed another young pitcher into a dominating force on the mound - Chris Archer. The 25-year old right-hander had a sensational rookie campaign last season posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. He has a great combination of hard-throwing stuff and intelligence in attacking opposing batters in the box. So far in 2014 he is off to another strong start at 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. More importantly, he has improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate as well. Confidence exudes from Archer and he is an undervalued commodity at the moment. Chicago has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, but I don't expect it to last. In 2013, the White Sox were dead last in runs scored; even behind the hapless Astros. They did add Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia (late in 2013) and Adam Eaton to improve the offense, but two of those guys are out for today's game (Garcia and Eaton). They'll send struggling rookie Erik Johnson to the hill today, and he doesn't appear ready for the big time just yet. He has a bloated 5.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts and has had spotty control. That's to be expected of a youngster, but it seems like the White Sox rushed him up a little too early when they had a hole in the rotation to fill. The Rays are one of the smartest hitting teams in the league and I expect them to get some good wood on the ball against Johnson. Take the Rays as our 10-unit Game of the Week. |
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04-22-14 | New York Yankees +104 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 9-3 | Win | 104 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) Baseball's best rivalry gets underway in Fenway as the Red Sox host the Yankees on Tuesday night. This one will be even bigger than usual as Masahiro Tanaka makes his first start of his career against Boston. Tanaka has arguably been the best pitcher in the majors so far this season. He comes in 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in three starts, but those numbers don't even do him justice. Tanaka has a ridiculous 28-2 K/BB ratio and his assortment of pitches has completely baffled the opposition. The Red Sox will surely be breaking down his first few outings with video, but Tanaka will still have the leg up for the first couple of times through the order. The Red Sox have also really struggled at the plate this season and are just 11th in the AL in runs scored through 19 games. Jon Lester goes for Boston and he's been pitching great as well. He's 2-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his four starts with a 29-4 K/BB ratio. Those numbers are definitely right up there with Tanaka, but the difference is that the Yankees will at least have a gameplan versus Lester based on a long history. New York also just welcomed back Mark Teixeira, and David Robertson is scheduled to come off the disabled list as well. Those are big boosts for a team that is already in first place in the AL East. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are still without Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks. The Yanks have the advantage on the mound today and are a bit healthier. More importantly, the price is right as Tanaka might not be an underdog for the rest of the season.
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04-18-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Miami Marlins -120 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Miami Marlins over Seattle Mariners (7:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners don't visit Miami often, but they begin a three-game series with the Marlins on Friday night. The Mariners are clearly an improved ballclub from last season. They added Robinson Cano and have several young pitchers on the rise that fans are excited about. But they are still a couple of pieces short and have some guys on the roster that are real head scratchers. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Chris Young. The nearly 35-year old has been in and out baseball over the last few years and his stuff has diminished considerably. With all of the injuries to the Mariners rotation, they decided to take a shot on him. But they probably would have been better-served going with one of their young arms in the minors. Young throws in the mid-80's and relies heavily on good control to get his desired results. He looked decent in his first start, but don't be fooled as he was fortunate more of his batted balls didn't fall for hits. There's a reason Young has been cut by several teams over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side, Nate Eovaldi is coming into this own for the Miami Marlins. He had a nice breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA, and his stuff looks even better so far this year. In his first three starts, Eovaldi has a sensational 19-1 K/BB ratio and is doing a great job inducing ground balls. I expect him to be in the running for an All-Star nomination this season, and he should be able to dominate a weak Mariners lineup that only has one threat. Take Miami as our 10-unit Game of the Week.
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04-15-14 | Kansas City Royals -150 v. Houston Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
4-unit Play #975 Kansas City Royals (-150) over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) Rookie phenom Yordano Ventura makes his second start of the season today in Houston. The 22-year old fireballer has been clocked with the fastest fastball in the majors and was extremely impressive in his first outing versus the Rays. He went six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and no walks. It's going to take the league a while to adjust to the stuff that Ventura brings, so the Astros will be up against it today. They already have one of the worst lineups in the league and they strike out a ton. Only the White Sox have struck out more often in the AL, so Ventura should get to double digits in punch outs today. On the other side of the ledger is Lucas Harrell for Houston. Harrell quite honestly is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball and should be working in the minor leagues. Last season he carried a 5.86 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 36 appearances. So far in 2014, it's even worse. In two starts he has a robust 11.05 ERA and 2.73 WHIP and hasn't made it through the fifth inning. Those are probably the worst numbers you will ever see from a major league pitcher, so this is likely Harrell's last start in the rotation unless he completely turns things around today. Don't count on it, Kansas City should win this one in a laugher. |
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04-10-14 | Cleveland Indians -123 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play #917 Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) There's a new trend in baseball over the last few years and it's not hard to spot. Young pitchers are starting to take over the game. Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran are just a few members of the 25-and-under club that are dominating major league hitters these days. But there's a new guy that you can add to that list - 24-year old Danny Salazar of the Indians. The right-hander was brilliant in his 10 starts last season, striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings and posting a 3.12 ERA. This will be his first full season and Cleveland is expecting him to produce like a #2 starter. But with the stuff that he has, he can be the ace of the Indians if he learns how to approach hitters. Today he'll get the White Sox, who were dead last in the AL last season in runs scored. Chicago made some nice moves in the offseason to bolster the offense, but they are still going to struggle to produce on a consistent basis. They are also traveling back across the country after finishing up a three-game series in Colorado yesterday. Going from that thin air and traveling to play a game nearly 2,000 miles the next day isn't easy. John Danks gets the ball for the Sox and he hasn't been the same since having shoulder surgery over a year ago. His velocity is down and his strikeout rate has fallen considerably from his earlier years. The Sox are hoping he can get them 200 innings with just average numbers, but that is going to be a stretch. The Indians are the better team, have the much better starting pitcher and the better bullpen. The line on this one is a bit too low, so we're on the Indians.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-05-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -122 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies are a great sleeper team for 2014 as the Dodgers and Giants are hogging most of the attention in the NL West as usual. Despite a poor showing overall the last few years, the Rockies have actually been very good when healthy. Unfortunately for them, keeping their team intact has been quite the challenge. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are the team's top two players, and they've had trouble staying off the disabled list for large amounts of time. But they're both in the lineup now and the Rockies have surrounded them with some nice pieces in the lineup. I also really like how the starting rotation is coming together, led by today's starter Jorge De La Rosa. The 33-year old left-hander had a breakthrough season in 2013, going 16-6 with a 3.49 ERA in 30 starts. That's impressive given how bad this team was overall last season (just 74 wins) and the fact that half of his starts were at Coors Field. I like what I saw from him this spring and think he can build on last year's great performance in 2014. He'll go up against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has gotten off to a rough start this season at just 1-6. The whole Australia trip may have adversely affected the team due to the lengthy travel, but the more pressing issue has been the pitching staff. With ace Patrick Corbin out, I don't think they can lean heavily on anyone in the rotation. They have a collection of arms that all feel like #3 or #4 starters, such as today's starter Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy wasn't right last year, with a 4.53 ERA, and he looked very lackluster in his first start of 2014. He may still be mentally affected by the line drive injury he had two seasons ago, or maybe it's mechanical. Colorado has one of the better home field advantage in baseball and they definitely have the better starting pitcher on the mound for this one. The price on this game seems awfully low, so we're on Colorado.
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10-27-13 | Boston Red Sox v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Boston Red Sox/St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5 (8:15pm EST) Game 4 of the World Series goes tonight and there should be plenty of fireworks. I don't have any confidence right now in either of today's starting pitchers. Clay Buchholz goes for the Red Sox and he's dealing with arm fatigue at the worst time possible. It's a bit surprising that Boston is sticking with him, as Buchholz's velocity has been noticeably down and he hasn't looked comfortable the entire postseason. In his three starts, Buchholz doesn't have a win and has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He'll have a short leash tonight for sure, but that doesn't mean he won't allow three or four runs before that time comes. On the other side is the Cardinals' weak link in the rotation - Lance Lynn. Lynn wasn't good in the second half of the regular season and that carried over to the playoffs. He has pitched in three games and has a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. With two of the best offenses in baseball taking hacks at both of these pitchers, there's a good chance that we go Over the total before the bullpens even get a chance to get warmed up. Take the Over as our 10-unit MLB Postseason Game of the Year.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-18-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -125 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
10-unit Play #921 Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:35pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have their backs up against the wall, but they've certainly been here before. The argument can be made that this team actually enjoys the pressure and the big moments and plays even better when they really need to. The Dodgers started out the season an abysmal 30-42 and in the cellar of the NL West division. Critics ripped the team and management as nearly everyone wrote them off for 2013. But they rose to the occasion and went on one of the greatest runs in baseball history. They went 53-13 over their next 66 games and found themselves with a comfortable lead atop the NL West now. Fast forward to Wednesday as the Dodgers trailed 3-1 in the series to the Cardinals and once again people said that the Dodgers were done. But here they are with a chance to tie up the series with one of the best pitchers in the game on the mound. The fact is that this team is much better than there record indicates. They didn't have Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig for the first two months of the season and Zack Greinke was out most of that time with an injury as well. Since the end of June, nobody has put up the numbers the Dodgers have and they've never given up any hope in bringing a World Series to Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw has had an amazing season and we don't need to go over his spectacular resume. He pitched masterfully in Game Two against these Cardinals going six innings while allowing no earned runs and just two hits and a walk. Unfortunately an error cost him an unearned run and the Dodgers fell 1-0. Kershaw threw just 72 pitches in that game, but rest assured that he will go close to the distance today with the Dodgers needing a win. His mound opponent in that game was Michael Wacha and he pitched just as well. However, that was the first time that Los Angeles had ever seen the rookie live. Now that they've had a taste of his stuff, I expect them to make the proper adjustments and put some pressure on him. He's been pitching well, but remember that he's just a rookie and this is the biggest game of his career. The nerves could get to the youngster as he faces the most dangerous lineup in the league. I like the Dodgers to grab this victory amidst the pressure - like they always do.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-15-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers -148 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #914 Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox (4:05pm EST) He's back - Justin Verlander that is. The big right-hander is blowing away hitters right now and it's not just been in his two starts in the postseason. Going back to his start on September 23rd, Verlander has gone 27 straight innings without allowing a single run. During that span he has struck out 43 batters while walking six. His WHIP is an amazing 0.78 and he's pitching like he did two years ago when he won the Cy Young and nearly took home the MVP award. Add to that the struggles that the Boston Red Sox have had at the plate in the first two games and it's going to be hard to imagine many runs crossing the plate for the road team. Outside of a grand slam by David Ortiz in the 8th inning last night, Boston has looked silly at the plate in this series. Boston hitters have struck out 32 times in the two games and are batting a collective .136 at the plate. That's not good when Detroit's hottest pitcher gets the ball now. The Tigers are also extremely difficult to beat in Comerica over the last few seasons. They've won 50+ games there for five straight seasons and hold one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. John Lackey goes for Boston. He's had a pretty strong season, but his numbers tailed off down the stretch and he can't be trusted right now. In his last four regular season starts, Lackey posted an abysmal 5.33 ERA. He followed that up with a horrible postseason start against Tampa Bay in which he yielded four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of works. He was lucky to escape with a win there, but his performance was subpar and he doesn't appear confident. All signs point to Detroit tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-13-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) Game 2 of the ALCS gets underway this evening in Boston as the Red Sox look to even the score after last night's 1-0 loss. Pitchers dominated the hitters in Game One and today we'll see two more great pitchers on the mound. Max Scherzer goes for the Tigers and he's had a masterful season. He finished the regular season 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and will likely be bringing home a Cy Young award when it's announced. Clay Buchholz very well could have been in the Cy Young race had he not gotten injured and missed several months. He finished the season 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in roughly half of a season. Needless to say, these pitchers have been dominant and there's no big edge either way there. However, if you break down the rest of these teams, Boston has the edge in every other major category. At the plate, the Red Sox were the best team in baseball - scoring 57 more runs than the Tigers in the regular season. Defensively Boston has an edge as well and once the game gets into the bullpen they have a better 8th inning guy and a better closer than the Tigers do. This game is also in Boston, where the Red Sox went 53-28 this season. That was the best mark in the AL and Detroit was barely over .500 on the road this season. Adding it all up, it appears that this line is a bit short. We'll take Boston here to even up the series.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-11-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals OVER (8:35pm EST) The National League Championship Series gets underway tonight as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers. I expect plenty of fireworks in this series as we have the two most powerful offenses in the league facing off against one another. Most people immediately think of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as the anchors for this Dodgers team that won 92 games this season. However, their offense was tops in the NL on a park-adjusted basis and carried them many times throughout the season. They also didn't even have Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig for the first two months of the season, which depressed their overall numbers a bit. Tonight they'll get their whacks against right-hander Joe Kelly. The 25-year old had a decent season but was fortunate to post a 2.69 ERA. Based on his peripheral statistics (WHIP, K/BB rate and GB/FB ratio), Kelly pitched more like a pitcher that should carry an ERA in the low 4's. He also pitched out of the pen for the majority of the season and wasn't a mainstay in the rotation until August. In his only postseason start against the Pirates, Kelly was mediocre at best as he only went 5 1/3 innings while allowing three runs and walking four batters. I would be surprised he pitches any better against a much more dangerous Dodgers lineup. For the Cardinals, they go up against Zack Greinke. He's obviously one of the better pitchers in the game, but he's very average on the road over the last few seasons. In fact, his ERA's on the road over the last four seasons were 3.21, 3.91, 4.70 and 4.06. He is much more comfortable at home, so manager Don Mattingly would probably be better served to have Greinke pitch Game 3 in Los Angeles rather than the opener in St. Louis. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards give Greinke a hard time in this one and bounce him before he can get through a full six innings. We should see plenty of runs from both teams here today in Game One, so we're on the Over as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-10-13 | Detroit Tigers -105 v. Oakland A's | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Detroit over Oakland (Thursday 8:05 pm TBS) Historically these are the type of games that Oakland does not win during the Billy Beane tenure. Oakland lost to Detroit last year in a Game 5 at home and history will repeat itself on Thursday night. Justin Verlander has not been himself this season; however, he pitched well in Game 2 of the ALDS and will give us another great outing on Thursday. The Tigers have a much better line-up than does Oakland especially with Johnny Peralta back from suspension. Detroit is 20-8 in games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog in the playoffs.
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10-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals -155 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 St. Louis Cardinals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates had their chance to close out this series at home on Monday and failed. Now they face the extremely difficult task of heading back to St. Louis in a deciding Game 5 against Adam Wainwright. He's a tough customer and has come up big in huge games for the Cardinals in the past. This Pirates team has a lot of grit and plays well beyond their talent level, but this is too much to ask. They're not quite ready to take a game this big, but it will be a great learning experience. Rookie Gerrit Cole will get the ball for Pittsburgh in this game. He pitched great in Game 2 of the series against the Cardinals, but this game is different. His team is counting on him and it's an enormous amount of pressure for a 23-year old. It wouldn't be surprising at all if he crumbles under the pressure, while the Cardinals expect Wainwright to pitch well. St. Louis also owns the second best home record in baseball at 54-27 and their crowd is going to be full of energy tonight. All signs point to the Pirates here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-08-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5 (8:35pm EST) After a dramatic walk off home run, the Tampa Bay Rays stayed alive to extend this series to a Game 4 tonight against the Boston Red Sox. Last night's game saw nine runs cross the plate and I think we have a good chance to see even more than that today. Right-handers Jake Peavy and Jeremy Hellickson will battle in this contest and neither pitcher has been throwing the ball lately. Peavy has had his troubles all season long, but his last four outings have been particularly troublesome. Over that span he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, including 13 walks 25 innings of work. One of those games was in Tampa, where he walked five batters in six innings of work and struggled to get through six innings. Hellickson comes in 12-10 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 31 starts this season. He was shelled for six runs in his last outing of the season in Toronto and couldn't complete a full five innings. The start before that he couldn't get out of the third inning and allowed five runs. So it's been a tough season for Hellickson and it's a questionable move putting him out there was the Rays' season on the line. Manager Joe Maddon usually knows what he's doing, but this move doesn't seem to make much sense. I'd be surprised if either starting pitcher is able to go more than six innings tonight, and they might not get past five. We should see some fireworks in this one, so we're on the Over.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-07-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays +104 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 104 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (6:05pm EST) It's do or die time for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, but they are accustomed to this scenario. They've already faced three elimination games since the last day of the regular season. They are obviously 3-for-3 in those games to get where they are today versus the Boston Red Sox. Big pitching performances have kept this team alive, and I fully expect them to get another one today from Alex Cobb. The young right-hander pitched very well in the AL Wild Card game against the Indians. Cobb was also one of the best pitchers in the AL down the stretch and finished the 2013 season at 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He'll get a tough assignment today versus the Red Sox, but the Rays have been very tough to beat in Tropicana Field. They finished the season 51-30 at home. The Red Sox counter with Clay Buchholz in this one, who has made just four starts since coming back from the disabled list. He looked ok in those starts, but nothing like he did earlier on in the season when he dominated. Cobb is certainly pitching better and that combined with the home field advantage makes this line in a little too low. Take the Rays to keep this series alive.
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10-06-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 105 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers OVER (8:05pm EST) Game 3 of the NLDS goes tonight in Dodgers Stadium with the series tied up 1-1. Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball for Los Angeles while Julio Teheran goes for the Braves. Both pitchers have had very solid seasons for their respective clubs, but these are two of the most dangerous offenses in the league. The Dodgers were the #1 offense in the NL on a park-adjusted basis this season. And that was without Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez for the first two months of the season. The Braves were the #4 offense and they experienced quite a few injuries as well. As good as seasons as Ryu and Teheran have pitched this season, neither has been very sharp lately. Teheran has a 4.44 ERA in his last four starts, which were against the Phillies, Cubs, Padres and Marlins - not exactly the class offenses in this league. Ryu is a tough pitcher to adjust to due to his deceptive stuff, but the Braves have seen him a couple of times this season and should be ready this time around. We've seen seven runs in each of the first two games of this series with the aces going, and I think we see at least that many again today. Play the Over 6.5 here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -111 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (5:35pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays look to even the series against the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS. David Price gets the ball for the Rays and he was sensational in the tiebreaker game against the Texas Rangers on Monday. As last year's Cy Young, everyone knows that Price can pitch. But he seems to be getting more comfortable with the spotlight and poised to reach the next level into elite status. He'll go up a very tough Red Sox lineup that put up 12 runs yesterday. However, Price has fared well against Boston in his career and he should get some more run support today. That's because John Lackey hasn't been pitching very well recently. Over his last four starts, Lackey posted a 5.33 ERA and his velocity has tapered off a bit from where it was mid-season. He also has had much success against the Rays' hitters, so I expect him to struggle again today. The Rays are a resilient bunch and they're not going to let yesterday's drubbing get to them. I think they even the series behind a strong performance from Price.
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10-03-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Atlanta Braves OVER 6 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 116 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves OVER 6 (8:35pm EST) Game 1 of the NLDS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves begins tonight. We generally look for good Under spots in the playoffs, but in this instance we see good value playing Over the small total here. You don't see too many 6's, and especially when a game is featuring two potent offenses like these. The Dodgers were the best hitting team in the NL on a park-adjusted basis this season. That's impressive considering they played the first two months of the season without Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, both of who are in the lineup for today. The Braves are no slouches either. They were fourth in the NL offensively on a park-adjusted basis and fought through quite a bit of injuries of their own throughout the season. They also led the league in home runs this season with 181. The total on this game is extremely low based on the pitchers taking the mound today. Clayton Kershaw is certainly the best pitcher in the NL and will be a tough nut to crack. However, the postseason is a different animal and he's never faced the pressure of being the guy everyone counts on in a really big spot. In fact, Kershaw struggled in the postseason in 2008 and 2009 when he posted a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings of work combined. He will certainly pitch better than that, but don't expect to see the same kinds of numbers he posted during the regular season. The Braves send Kris Medlen to the hill. He's had an up and down season, but has looked pretty good over the last month or so. He has great stuff, but it's hard to imagine the potent Dodgers lineup not getting a few runs off of him today. All in all, the total is priced right based on just the pitchers. However, with these two dangerous lineups I expect at least one of them to breakout and maybe cover this total all by themselves. Take the Over 6 today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-02-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 102 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Tampa Bay Rays/Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 (8:05pm EST) It's the AL Wild Card game tonight in Cleveland as the Indians host the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays earned their way to this game by beating the Rangers in a one-game playoff on Monday night 5-2. David Price dominated the opposition in that game and we expect to see another great pitching performance by Tampa Bay starter Alex Cobb tonight. Cobb is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league as he comes in 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 22 starts. He relishes big spots and they don't get much bigger than today in a winner take all game. His mound opponent is Danny Salazar, a 23-year old who has pitched lights out since coming up from the minors two months ago. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and is striking out a whopping 11.2 batters per nine innings. The Rays have never seen Salazar, so he should have the advantage the first couple of times through the order. Both of these can hit, but their lineups aren't overpowering. If either one should happen to struggle, the managers won't hesitate to call to the pen given the circumstances. Runs are generally hard to come by in these types of games and with these two pitchers going, we should stay Under the total tonight.
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates -125 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (8:05pm EST) The playoffs have finally arrived and it begins with a National Wild Card game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night. These NL Central foes are certainly familiar with one another and they've also played six times over the last week and a half of the season. The Pirates won four of those six games and took the season series 11-8. The Pirates were also the better team this season, winning 94 games versus 90 for the Reds. That earned them home field advantage for this game, which was vitally important given their 50-31 home mark. The Pirates will also have the edge in the starting pitching department today, as Francisco Liriano goes up against Johnny Cueto. Liriano has been dominant this season at 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. Cueto was injured for most of the 2013 campaign and this will be only his third start since returning from the disabled list. He was pretty good in his last two starts, but you don't know what you're going to get from him in this pressure-packed game. All signs point to Pittsburgh today. They were the better team in the regular season, won the season series, are at home for this game and have an edge in the pitching matchup. Take the Pirates to advance at a relatively low price here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-25-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners -106 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (10:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals have had a great season. They won't be in the postseason, but they certainly exceeded expectations this season and are relevant once again on the diamond. They technically aren't mathematically eliminated at 83-74, but they know it's not happening with three teams ahead of them and only five games left to make up a four game deficit. After yesterday's 4-0 loss, defeat probably began setting in and this team has to be deflated after a valiant effort to make a return to the postseason for the first time in 28 years. This is their last game in Seattle before heading on a plane back to Chicago to close out the season. The Mariners didn't have a great season, but they're better than most people think. They have a terrible 19-29 record in one run games and are just 6-15 in extra-inning games. They have several young players on the horizon and have improved throughout the season despite what their record indicates. Hisashi Iwakuma has established himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL and today he'll get one final start to cap off a great season. On a team that is 20 games under .500, Iwakuma checks in at 13-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He should have the advantage today against a Royals lineup that will probably be hanging their heads a little lower. Take the Mariners as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-17-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -129 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm EST) The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals will play two today after the horrific incident in Washington D.C. yesterday. It should be an emotional day for Washington fans and players, which could give the team a bit of an edge today. We're focusing on Game 2 of the doubleheader for a couple of reasons. First off, the Braves have the division locked up and will probably be looking to rest a few guys on the back end. There's no reason to wear anyone down with the playoffs just two weeks away. For the Nats, these games are virtually must wins. They are still five games back in the wild card chase and can't afford too many more losses. There's no question manager Davey Johnson will utilize the lineup that gives his team the best chance to win, including the best arms out of the bullpen. That Nats also get to face veteran Freddy Garcia in the nightcap. Garcia is 37-years old and really doesn't belong in the league anymore. He is 4-6 this season with a hefty 4.86 ERA and a significantly decreasing strikeout rate of only 4.5 per nine innings. Washington has been swinging the bats better of late and could bounce Garcia very early. That could spell trouble in a doubleheader where Atlanta will surely use some of their weaker arms to avoid wear and tear. The Nats are 19-6 in their last 25 games and I think they win the second game of the doubleheader against the Braves today.
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