Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-05-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -129 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers (4:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are starting to play like everyone expected, but we're still seeing some reasonable lines on them. Cincinnati is 15-7 over their last 22 contests, including taking the first game of this big series versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. We like them again here with the red hot Homer Bailey taking the hill. Bailey is 4-1 over his last seven starts with a 3.23 ERA and 44-12 K/BB ratio. His velocity is also creeping up and you can see the confidence coming back after a slow start to the 2014 campaign. Matt Garza goes for Milwaukee and he's been mediocre at best for most of the season. I give Bailey the check mark in this one and I also give small edges to the Reds as far as offense and bullpen goes. With the Reds at home, I think this line should be about 10-15 cents higher. Take Cincinnati. |
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07-03-14 | Texas Rangers -111 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) There's no question that the Texas Rangers have fallen on hard times. Injuries eventually got the best of them, and now they've lost 12 of 14 games to drop 10 games below the .500 mark. But if they have one guy who's going to break a cold streak it's today's starter Yu Darvish. The Japanese sensation is 8-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 15 starts. The line one this game is more reflective of what the team has done recently, so I think we're getting a huge discount with Darvish pitching. He'll face an Orioles team that is a bit overrated in my book. The O's are 45-39, but the AL East has surprisingly turned into one of the worst divisions in all of baseball. Wei-Yin Chen toes the rubber for Baltimore today. Chen is probably Baltimore's best starting pitcher, but that's not exactly saying a lot. He has struggled a bit of late, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts. The Rangers offense isn't as potent as it has been in recent years, but they still pose a decent threat. With Darvish backing them up, I think the Rangers can finally break through today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates -146 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #956 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates made a dramatic come from behind win last night versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. They trailed 2-0 heading into the 9th and were able to put three runs on the board to get the victory 3-2. It's been a horrific season for the D-Backs, but a game like that brings them to a new low. Ike Davis singled in the game-winning run which led to the standard walk-off celebration for the Pirates. It was one of those wins that creates energy that can carry forward into the next day, and I fully expect that to be the case in this one. The Pirates have been on quite a roll going 14-7 over their last 21 games and are moving up the standings quickly. Charlie Morton gets the nod for them today and he was dominant in his last outing versus the Rays. He went seven innings in that start allowing just two earned runs and striking out 11 batters with just one walk. It was his best effort of the season and a huge confidence builder. Arizona counters with Chase Anderson. The young right-hander looked really good in his first couple of starts after getting called up, but he's been mediocre of late as the league has made some adjustments. I'm not sure his teammates will give him much support after getting the wind knocked out them last night. This one has a Pirates winner written all over it. |
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06-30-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros -102 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (8:10pm EST) Taijuan Walker finally makes his 2014 debut for the Mariners and Seattle fans are excited. Walker has been one of the most highly-touted prospects in Seattle's system over the last couple of years. He made a brief cameo last season and performed well in three starts. Walker was slated to start the season in the big league rotation, but a shoulder injury put him in the disabled list. He's made eight starts in the minors before heading to the bigs, but he wasn't as dominant in Triple-A as most expected him to be. With all of the attention he has gotten so far, it may add some extra pressure on him in his first outing. He'll face an underrated Astros lineup that has increased its production as the season has went on. Collin McHugh will pitch for Houston and he's been one of the big surprises in 2014. McHugh has gone from relatively unknown to a guy who looks like he belongs in the All-Star game this season. He enters today's game with 2.86 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts, and is averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He's still flying under the radar a bit, evidenced by the low price pitching at home today. We'll take the Astros in a game we see a lot of value. |
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06-26-14 | Detroit Tigers -119 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #967 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers have begun to slide but who can blame them? No team has endured more injuries than the Rangers have in 2014, and it's pretty amazing that Ron Washington was able to keep it together for this long. Texas has dropped seven straight games to their lowest point of the season. To make matters worse, they're in the toughest division in baseball so things probably aren't going to get any better. Today they send one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball to the mound in Nick Martinez. The 23-year old has been knocked around since entering the rotation over a month ago. In nine starts this season, Martinez has a 5.06 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He's walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out and he doesn't induce many groundballs. There really isn't anything that Martinez is doing well at the moment, so he either needs to be sent back to the bullpen or down to the minor leagues. But as long as he's in the rotation, we'll continue to play against him. Today the Tigers will get their cracks against him. Detroit has suddenly turned it on with six straight wins, and the offense has really picked it up. Over their last six-game winning streak, Detroit is averaging 6.5 runs per contest. Rick Porcello gets the nod on the mound. He's putting together another solid season at 9-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He has to redeem himself after the Rangers knocked him around pretty good in Detroit about a month ago. I'm confident that he will and that the Tigers will score plenty of runs to support him. This one could be over early on, as the Tigers should roll in our 6-unit June Game of the Week. |
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06-24-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Arizona Diamondbacks -122 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Arizona Diamondbacks over Cleveland Indians (9:40pm EST) It's tough backing this Arizona Diamondbacks team right now, but we've found a really good spot tonight. Left-hander Wade Miley toes the rubber for the D-Backs and I really like what he's shown us this season. His ERA is 4.62, but that isn't representative of the way he has pitched in 2014. He has an excellent 93-32 K/BB ratio and a modest 1.28 WHIP. He's gotten into some trouble with the long ball, but a lot of that is just noise as he pitches in an extreme hitter's park. Miley should excel tonight as Cleveland doesn't have a lineup built to hit against southpaws. Cleveland is hitting just .239 against lefties this season - worst in the American League. The Tribe goes with Justin Masterson. He's had a shaky season marred by inconsistency, so it's hard to know what to expect from him today. Arizona is 14-4 in their last 18 interleague home games. The Indians are 16-43 in their last 59 interleague road games. This one sets up well for Arizona, so we'll lay the small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-23-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -109 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) Don't look now, but the defending National League champions are heating up. The Cards have won 10 of 14 and are making their move in the NL Central. This definitely shouldn't come as a surprise since this year's Cardinals roster is even better than last year's edition. But it seems like the betting markets still haven't fully reacted to the Cardinals playing better. Today they are very small favorite against a Colorado Rockies team that is decimated by injuries right now. The Rockies are missing three guys from the starting lineup and four starting pitchers. Since the end of the May, Colorado is just 7-19 and is now out of contention. Jhoulys Chacin toes the rubber for Colorado in this one and he's been a big disappointment so far in 2014. His velocity has tailed off and he has an ERA that is nearly a full run over his career level. There were some injury issues earlier in the season, so there's a good chance something is still lingering for the right-hander. St. Louis counters with Lance Lynn today. Lynn has been somewhat of an enigma at times, but when you look at his overall numbers they are certainly more than adequate. The 27-year old is 7-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 15 starts. In his four-year career, he's always had an ERA in the 3's despite some shaky performances. The Cardinals bullpen has been pitching well, so if Lynn can go his usual six or seven innings without getting into major trouble, they should be in good shape. St. Louis has the advantage all around, so we'll take them at a nice price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (7:15pm EST) It's hard to believe that Justin Verlander has gone from the very best pitcher in the sport a couple of years ago, to a guy that is probably one of the five worst pitchers going right now. So much has changed in a short time that many are scratching their heads trying to figure it out. It's probably a combination of factors including diminished velocity, a big contract in his back pocket, lingering injury issues and Kate Upton. But whatever it is, Verlander isn't right and he's one of the top guys to bet against at the moment. The oddsmakers and betting markets are still giving Verlander some respect and it's hard to comprehend. He comes into today's start with a 4.98 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and he's getting worse by the start. Over his last three outings, the former Cy Young and MVP is 0-3 with a 9.16 ERA and 2.04 WHIP. His K/BB ratio in those outings is just 12-10 and many hitters have commented that his stuff is very easy to pick up now. The Indians will get their chance to take some shots at Verlander today and they should do well given all of their left-handed bats. The Indians have hit right-handers about as well as anyone this season and they've seen plenty of Verlander over the years. Trevor Bauer will deal with the Tigers hitters and I like what I've seen from the youngster in 2014. He's finally blossoming into the kind of pitcher everyone had hoped for when he was in Arizona. He's striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings and has a respectable 4.20 ERA. His stuff is electric and he's one of the more cerebral pitchers in the game. Bauer is here to stay in the Indians rotation and I expect a big year from him. The Tigers have dropped 20 of 31 games and are still trying to stop this spiral. With the big edge on the mound, I like the Indians to take this one at home. |
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06-19-14 | Los Angeles Angels -128 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Cleveland Indians (12:05pm EST) This one was delayed one day because of rain, but that doesn't change the handicap. The Angels and Indians will play the rubber game of what is now a three-game set in Cleveland. C.J. Wilson toes the rubber for the Halos and he's about as consistent as it comes when you are talking about starting pitchers. The veteran right-hander enters today's contest 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 14 starts. Since becoming a starter, Wilson has posted ERAs of 3.35, 2.94, 3.83, 3.39 and the 3.50 he has so far in 2014. You know exactly what you're going to get from him and that makes it easier to back him in this game. The Indians do not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In fact, they are hitting just .241 as a team against southpaws on the season. Justin Masterson goes for the Tribe and he's been about the opposite of consistent throughout his career. This season has been no exception as he comes in with a 5.05 ERA despite mixing in some brilliant performances. This is on the heels of a season in which he posted a 3.45 ERA. The Angels have one of the top offenses in baseball and it's even better now that it's healthy. Josh Hamilton missed extensive time, but he's back in the lineup and is raking. It's hard to find any areas where the Angels don't have the advantage tonight. As a result, we're on the Angels in this spot. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-15-14 | San Diego Padres -118 v. New York Mets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #903 San Diego Padres over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres and New York Mets aren't going anywhere in 2014 and this game probably won't be particularly exciting for the casual fan. But that doesn't mean we can't make some money on what looks like a great opportunity. Ian Kennedy has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season, but he hasn't got the kind of attention he has deserved. He comes in at 5-7 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He's striking out a career-best 9.5 batters per nine innings while walking a career-low 2.1 at the same time. Kennedy has even increased his groundball rate and lowered his home run rate in 2014. Skeptics may point to the fact that half of his starts are in Petco Park, which is one of the top pitcher's parks in baseball. But Kennedy has actually been better on the road than he has at home. Today he'll see a weak-hitting Mets team that was shut out yesterday by rookie Jesse Hahn. That made nine losses in their last 11 games, and their hitting has been the culprit during the collapse. The Mets averaged just 3.0 runs per game during that span despite going up against mediocre pitching. Kennedy certainly will be one of the toughest arms they've faced in some time, so I don't expect many runs to cross the plate for New York. That puts the pressure on Mets starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. The veteran right-hander was forced into the rotation due to other injuries and he hasn't fit in very well so far. His overall ERA is 2.95, but that is deceiving for two reasons. First off, most of his innings have been out of the bullpen pitching one inning at a time. Starting is much more difficult when hitters get to see you multiple times. In addition, Matsuzaka has been extremely fortunate as he is allowing a BABIP of just .204. He's walking 6.4 batters per nine innings, which is amongst the highest in the majors. San Diego is a poor hitting team, but any major league team can score runs when they're given free passes. Daisuke will likely only go five or six innings today, and that opens the game up for the Padres as the Mets bullpen has struggled for most of the season. I expect San Diego to get an early lead on the Mets and Kennedy should be able to hold it the way he's been throwing. When the game gets into the hands of the respective bullpens, I like San Diego there as well. All signs point to the Padres here and that's why it's our 10-unit National League Game of the Year. |
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06-14-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates -127 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins (4:10pm EST) We've been riding the Pittsburgh Pirates lately and we'll do it again here on Saturday. As was pointed out a couple of times already, this is an improved version of the Pittsburgh team from a few weeks back. Gregory Polanco is one of the biggest reasons why, as he was called up from Triple-A earlier this week. All he did yesterday was go 5-for-7 at the plate, including the game-winning home run in the 13th inning. He's a game-changer and makes this Pittsburgh team a contender. I like the pitching matchup here today as Charlie Morton goes up against Randy Wolf. That's a huge mismatch in Pittsburgh's favor as Morton is throwing the ball very well and Wolf is a bomb waiting to implode. We could break it down further, but it's really that simple. The Pirates are 10-5 in their last 15 games and we'll continue to let them cash tickets for us. They have the better overall team and a big edge on the mound, so this price is very reasonable. Take the Pirates as our 5-unit Game of the Week. |
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06-12-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -117 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have a new look and I think it could pay dividends in the coming weeks. First off, Russell Martin and Jason Grilli are back in the fold after missing several weeks with injuries. Those were two of the most important pieces to the puzzle for the Pirates last year and they are leaders on this squad. Pittsburgh also finally brought up Gregory Polanco a few days ago and he's one of the top prospects in the game. He should make an impact with his bat and in the field based on all of the scouting reports. You're also starting to see the signs of a run as Pittsburgh is 8-5 in their last 13 games. If they can keep winning at that rate, they'll be back in the playoff race in a matter of weeks. Today they get the lovable losers - the Chicago Cubs. It's been another disappointing season on the north side of Chicago in 2014. The Cubs have the worst record in the NL and the minor league ball club seems to be all anyone cares about in the organization. That bodes well for bettors looking to make some money going against them. The Cubs clearly have the edge on the mound today, but that's the only area where they are better. Starting pitching is generally overrated in the markets, and this is a perfect example. Jeff Samardzija has a sparkling 2.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but he only has two wins to show for it. The offense and bullpen have let him down in a big way this season and there's no reason to expect it to change. The line on this game is a bit lower than expected, so we'll take the Pirates here. |
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06-09-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Cincinnati Reds -105 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:10pm EST) Good spot here for the Cincinnati Reds as they catch the Los Angeles Dodgers at the perfect time. First off, the Dodgers just finished a series in Colorado and will have to now travel across country to Cincinnati for this one. Adjusting from the high altitude to a normal environment usually takes more than 24 hours, so advantage to the Reds there. Los Angeles is also pretty banged up at the moment, with Carl Crawford and Juan Uribe on the disabled list and Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon big question marks for tonight. The Reds go with crafty southpaw Tony Cingrani in tonight's game. He hasn't been great so far in 2014, but the Dodgers have had all kinds of trouble with left-handers all season long so I like his chances. The Dodgers are hitting just .208 against lefties - worst in the NL. Dan Haren toes the rubber for Los Angeles and he's struggled a bit after a red hot start to the 2014 season. Haren has given up at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and he's striking out fewer batters in the process. He has just 18 strikeouts to his name over his last six starts, which spans 37 innings of work. The Reds are still without their best player Joey Votto, but they still have some weapons in the lineup and have managed to stay afloat at 29-32. We'll take Cincinnati here at home at a nice price. |
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06-08-14 | Houston Astros -106 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 14-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) We're leaning on the surging Astros once again today as they take on the Twins. Houston is 16-10 over their last 26 games after an 11-26 start to the season. They're clearly not quite as good as their recent record indicates, but they're certainly not as bad as the way they opened the 2014 campaign. The real answer is somewhere in the middle and I really think this is a team that could play close to .500 baseball for the remainder of the season. The lineup keeps improving as they are bringing quality talent and the young guys are learning more and more each day. The rotation is better than originally anticipated and one of the reasons is today's starter Collin McHugh. The young right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight starts in 2014. This is after posting an enormous 10.04 ERA in limited work last season and bouncing around three different organizations in a two-year span. The betting markets haven't quite caught up to him and the Astros yet. They are small favorites here, but this line should be 10-15 cents higher based on my ratings. The Astros have the better overall team and are sending out the better starter on the mound. So we'll take Houston once again. |
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06-07-14 | Cleveland Indians +110 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 Cleveland Indians over Texas Rangers (4:05pm EST) They started the season slowly, but the Cleveland Indians are finally playing like they are capable of. The Tribe has won six of seven and more closely resemble the team that surprised everyone and made the playoffs last season. Cleveland doesn't rely on any superstars to carry them, as they have one of the more balanced teams in baseball. It seems like someone different steps up every day to contribute, and they're usually not household names. One guy that has been getting the job done is today's starter Josh Tomlin. The 29-year old right-hander wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation this season, but he was given a shot due to injuries. So far he's been impressive with a 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six games. Tomlin relies on his impeccable control to be successful. He holds an extremely low 1.4 walk rate per innings and has induced lots of weak contact as well. He'll face a battered Texas Rangers squad that looks nothing like it did earlier this spring. Injuries have ravaged the Rangers roster and it's a minor miracle that they've hovered around the .500 mark for so long. The bottom will eventually fall out for Texas as they can't stay afloat with the guys they are trotting out day in and day out. Nick Tepesch gets the ball today and he's another guy that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation on day one. He's filled in nicely so far at 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA, but his stuff isn't overwhelming and he'll provide mediocre production at best. The Indians have hit righties extremely well overall, with a .264 average on the season (versus just .236 against lefties). As a result, they should be able to jump on Tepesch and get into a suspect Texas bullpen early on. The wrong team is being favored in this game so we're on the Indians for our Game of the Week. |
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06-04-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians -140 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) Today's game is all about Corey Kluber, who is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball at the moment. The Indians right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last six starts. But even more impressively, he has a 60-8 K/BB ratio and has dominated AL hitters. He'll face a lackluster Red Sox lineup that is just 11th in the AL in runs scored this season. I think the Red Sox will eventually find a groove offensively, but right now they are fade material. Youngster Brandon Workman goes for Boston. He's an unproven commodity at the moment, but I wasn't impressed with his effort in the minors. He seems like he needs a little more seasoning, so I expect the Indians to touch him up pretty good in this one. The Tribe hit righties very well, so that makes things even tougher on Workman. We're paying a decent price on Cleveland here, but there's still plenty of value. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-31-14 | Los Angeles Angels +115 v. Oakland A's | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm EST) I love what I've seen so far from the Angels and A's this season. Based on my ratings, these are the two best teams in the AL and I expect it to be a dogfight to the win the AL West between these two. Today's matchup features one of the pitchers I have enjoyed backing frequently this season against a pitcher that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation in 2014. Tyler Skaggs is the former and he's been a huge boon to an Angel's rotation that sorely needed some quality innings after a disaster last year. Skaggs was acquired in the offseason in a trade for Mark Trumbo and it's paid off. Skaggs enters today's game 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 10 starts. His peripheral numbers say he should be even a little bit better than that, and I agree. He should continue to get better as he gets comfortable in the AL. On the other side is Oakland starter Tommy Milone. The A's were perfectly happy with Milone coming out of the bullpen this season as they found better options. But injuries forced Milone back into his customary starting role, and the results have been mediocre at best. While he carries an ERA in the mid-3's, Milone has put up some weak peripherals thus far with a 4.79 xFIP. He gives up a ton of fly balls, which is generally ok at home. But that will cost him on occasion, and don't be surprised if the Angels make him pay a couple of times today. All in all, the line is probably close to accurate. However, I really like the pitching matchup here for the Angels and think they find a way to get the job done. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-29-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -127 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants (8:15pm EST) Thursday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants is more about what is going to happen rather than what has happened. San Francisco starter Ryan Vogelsong has put together a very nice season at 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. By all accounts, he's throwing some of the best baseball of his career. But at the age of 36, I'm not sure we can buy into Vogelsong all of a sudden becoming a top level starter. His career ERA is 4.43 and last season he checked in at 5.73. He hasn't added any new pitches and unless he has discovered the fountain of youth, we should expect regression from Vogelsong. On the other hand, is Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals. Garcia has spent more time on the disabled list than the baseball diamond over the last couple of years. But when he's been healthy, Garcia has been legit. He has a 3.46 career ERA and is only 27-years old, where he should be entering his prime. As a result, I think Garcia is a big undervalued in the betting marketplace. St. Louis as a team may be a bit undervalued as a team as they haven't gotten off to the kind of start that was expected. However, they are still 29-23 and on pace for 90+ wins. The Giants, meanwhile, are 33-19 and are playing a bit above their heads. The market may be giving them a little too much credit for a hot start. The value lies with St. Louis today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-26-14 | Los Angeles Angels -136 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -136 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Los Angeles Angels over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) We've been going against Chris Young of the Mariners as much as we can, even though it's had mixed results so far. There's no question he is much worse than his 3.53 ERA indicates, and I doubt he will last the whole season in the Seattle rotation. I like the Angels to rough him up early and often in what should be a route today. |
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05-24-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -135 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (4:10pm EST) It's not very often you find David Price lined this low at home against a last place team. But that's what we have today, as the Rays host the Red Sox. These two squads have vastly underachieved through the first quarter or so of the season, but they both have the talent to bounce back quickly. Price isn't putting up his normal numbers in 2014, but all of his peripheral statistics are looking good. He's striking out more batters, walking far less and is still an intimidating force on the mound. Before long he'll have his ERA where it belongs, so I'm not worried. The Rays know how to get their pitchers dealing and Price is the best they have. On the other side is veteran Jake Peavy, who is a shell of his former self. The 33-year old checks in with a 4.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in nine starts this season. His biggest problem has been his control, as Peavy is walking 4.5 batters per nine innings - more than double his walk rate last season. The Rays have been one of the better teams at home over the last five or six seasons and this price is just too low with an ace on the hill. The play is Tampa Bay. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-21-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Texas Rangers over Seattle Mariners (2:05pm EST) If Chris Young were a cat, he'd be working on his last life. The 35-year old right-hander has bounced around the majors his entire career and was nearly out of baseball for good a couple of times. His fastball barely hits 85mph on the radar gun and his control isn't particularly good. He doesn't induce many groundballs and opposing hitters don't fear him. But somehow Young latched on with the Mariners and so far he's miraculously posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Based on his skill set and peripheral statistics, Young should have an ERA in the 5's. He's been aided by a ridiculously low .199 BABIP and he's pitching much better with runners in scoring position. As a result, once those numbers regress to their normal levels, we should see the real Chris Young - and it won't be pretty. The Texas Rangers will try to expose Young today in Arlington. The Rangers have been struggling at the plate most of the season, but they've hit well the last couple of games. They've been dealing with injuries all season long, so they haven't had the consistency they would have liked. Nick Tepesch gets the ball for the Rangers. Tepesch looked really good in his first outing of the season last time out. He struck out eight batters in 5.1 innings of work and allowed just two hits. He also threw the ball really well in Triple-A, posting a 1.58 ERA in seven starts. Texas has the better pitcher on the mound in this one and their offense rates better than Seattle's. Throw in the home field advantage and we get a bargain price on the Rangers. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-14-14 | Cleveland Indians -101 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Cleveland Indians over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) One of the most underrated starting pitchers in the AL is Indians starter Corey Kluber. He was great for the Tribe in 2013 going 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA and an excellent K/BB ratio. This season he is even better, increasing his strikeouts by 20% and also inducing more groundballs than ever. At just 28 years of age, I expect Kluber to continue to improve and possibly get to an All-Star level. He won't easily be confused with Toronto's start in this one Dustin McGowan. McGowan has struggled with injuries the last couple of years and his stuff is clearly diminished. In seven starts this season he has a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His K/BB ratio is an unacceptable 22-15 and I don't think he can make it through the season with those kinds of numbers. So we have a big advantage for the Indians on the mound today, while the teams are mostly even in the other important aspects. I have both teams rated roughly the same on offense and in the bullpen, so the difference in this game will be the starting pitching. Take the Tribe tonight. |
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05-13-14 | Detroit Tigers +101 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 4-1 | Win | 101 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #965 Detroit Tigers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) We played the Tigers successfully yesterday and we like them again today for the same reasons. Detroit simply isn't getting enough respect by the betting markets despite holding the best record in baseball. They have an excellent every day lineup, an elite starting rotation and one of the best closers in the history of baseball. But despite it all, we're still seeing lines that are far too short. Tiger's starters have allowed three earned runs or less in 14 straight games, with an ERA of 2.07 during that stretch. Drew Smyly will get the opportunity to extend that streak and I like his chances to do it. The 24-year old southpaw comes in with a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and has been one of the unsung heroes of this ballclub the past couple of seasons. I don't like what I've seen from the Baltimore Orioles so far in 2014. They are leading the AL East but have a negative run differential on the season. Their offense is severely overrated as they are 13th in the AL in runs scored and most of that is due to their impatience at the plate. They've been particularly bad against left-handed pitching this season, so Smyly should be able to shut them down. The Tigers are probably licking their chops with Ubaldo Jimenez toeing the rubber for the O's. He's been awful once again with a 4.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his first season in Baltimore. This one could get out of hand quickly. Take the Tigers in a route. |
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05-09-14 | San Francisco Giants -127 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Two bitter rivals have at it again in Dodgers Stadium tonight. This line is tough to figure out as the Giants have a massive edge on the mound with ace Madison Bumgarner going against Paul Maholm. The market obviously knows this is a disparity, but I think they are underestimating the Giants offense more than anything. San Francisco is 4th in the NL in runs scored despite playing in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks and they're second in home runs. The Dodgers are right there with them, but the perception is that the Los Angeles offense is leaps and bounds better than the Giants. It's not the case now and I don't think it will be. One area where the Giants seem to have an edge is in the bullpen, where the Giants currently have a league-leading 1.81 ERA. They won't be able to maintain that low of a number all season, but they have several reliable options at the moment. Add it all up and the Giants should be higher favorites here. |
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05-08-14 | Chicago Cubs +109 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 12-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
It's not easy to pull the trigger on the Cubs at 11-21, but I like their pitching edge today. Jake Arrieta has pitched really well since switching leagues and coming to the Chicago. Most pitchers that go from the AL to NL see vast improvement, and Arrieta is no exception. Last season the right-hander was 4-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 with the Cubs. He missed the first month of the season this year, but his first start last week was impressive. He shut down a tough Cardinals lineup, going 5.1 innings without allowing a run. The White Sox are a banged up team right now, with three key players out of the lineup - Eaton, Garcia and Dunn. They've been scoring a lot of runs this season, but that's mostly due to the AL Player of the Month Jose Abreu. Now that the cat is out of the bag on Abreu, I'm sure opposing pitchers have taken notice. Rookie Scott Carroll goes for the Sox today. He's 29-years old after floating around in the minor leagues for nearly seven years. That's not a good sign and his results should bear that out. He pitched well in his first two starts, but he was extremely fortunate to work out of some jams. In his two starts he only struck out a total of three batters, so the Cubs will make some contact against him. Take the Cubs here in a rare win. |
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05-07-14 | Chicago Cubs -104 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The Crosstown Classic switches venues as the series shifts to US Cellular Field - home of the Chicago White Sox. The Sox are the better baseball team, but there are several reasons to like the Cubs in today's matchup. First and foremost, the Cubs have a vastly underrated starting pitcher on the mound in Travis Wood. He doesn't get much attention playing on a bad team, but Wood is putting up great numbers all around this season. He's even capable of getting some hits at the plate and hit a home run for the fourth consecutive season earlier this year. On the other side is southpaw John Danks, who has been one of the shakiest starters in the AL this season. Danks is coming off surgery and hasn't regained his velocity, so he's relying on his control more than ever. It hasn't worked. Danks is walking 5.0 batters per nine innings while only striking out 5.2. He's a gritty pitcher, but grit can only get you so far. The Cubs have hit lefties surprisingly well this season, so I expect them to plate some runs for a change. If Wood pitches like he usually does, then we should be able to put one in the win column with the Cubs. |
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05-03-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros +115 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) The Houston Astros are still the worst team in the major leagues, but they have a few bright spots. One of those is today's starter Dallas Keuchel. The 26-year old left-hander has really turned some heads this season, posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in five starts. His peripheral statistics are even more impressive as Keuchel is striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings and inducing an insane 64% groundball rate. He has All-Star potential and has certainly started out the season at an All-Star level. On the other side is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. The Seattle starter is making his first start after dealing with a finger injury all spring. He did make one rehab start but it wasn't particularly impressive. I doubt the M's will let him go past five or six innings, so that will give the Astros several shots at a mediocre bullpen. Both of these clubs have struggled out of the gates offensively, with the Mariners in 14th in the AL and the Astros 15th. With no distinct advantage there, I think Keuchel is the difference in this game. Take the Astros as the home underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-02-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Pittsburgh Pirates -134 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Pittsburgh Pirates over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't off to the kind of start they would have hoped for, but they've got the right guy on the mound to turn things around on Friday. The 23-year old right-hander has quickly developed into an ace with just 24 major league starts under his belt. Cole enters today's contest with a 3.18 ERA and he seemingly gets better and better with each outing. He is coming off of a great performance in St. Louis where he held a dangerous Cardinals lineup to just one run in seven innings. That was on the heels of a start in which Cole held the red hot Brewers to one run in eight innings. The Toronto Blue Jays will have the daunting task of going up against Cole today, and this will be the first time they have seen the young phenom. Advantage Cole for at least the first couple of times through the order. Brandon Morrow gets the ball for the Jays and he's coming off of the worst pitching performance in the majors this season. Morrow walked eight batters in just 2.2 innings of work before getting bounced against the Red Sox last week. He looked completely lost on the mound in that start and I don't think he has the confidence to turn things around right away. Morrow has struggled with consistency over the last few seasons and has a heavy 6.04 ERA in five starts this year. Last season he pitched just half a season after dealing with injuries and he finished with a 5.63 ERA. The Pirates haven't been hitting much this season, but they are a fairly patient team at the plate and should be able put some pressure on Morrow again. Morrow could get bounced very early again, which could make matters worse as the Jays pen has really been laboring of late. All signs point to a Pittsburgh victory today and we're on it as our May Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-25-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -132 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays have done it again. They've developed another young pitcher into a dominating force on the mound - Chris Archer. The 25-year old right-hander had a sensational rookie campaign last season posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. He has a great combination of hard-throwing stuff and intelligence in attacking opposing batters in the box. So far in 2014 he is off to another strong start at 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. More importantly, he has improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate as well. Confidence exudes from Archer and he is an undervalued commodity at the moment. Chicago has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, but I don't expect it to last. In 2013, the White Sox were dead last in runs scored; even behind the hapless Astros. They did add Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia (late in 2013) and Adam Eaton to improve the offense, but two of those guys are out for today's game (Garcia and Eaton). They'll send struggling rookie Erik Johnson to the hill today, and he doesn't appear ready for the big time just yet. He has a bloated 5.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts and has had spotty control. That's to be expected of a youngster, but it seems like the White Sox rushed him up a little too early when they had a hole in the rotation to fill. The Rays are one of the smartest hitting teams in the league and I expect them to get some good wood on the ball against Johnson. Take the Rays as our 10-unit Game of the Week. |
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04-22-14 | New York Yankees +104 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 9-3 | Win | 104 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) Baseball's best rivalry gets underway in Fenway as the Red Sox host the Yankees on Tuesday night. This one will be even bigger than usual as Masahiro Tanaka makes his first start of his career against Boston. Tanaka has arguably been the best pitcher in the majors so far this season. He comes in 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in three starts, but those numbers don't even do him justice. Tanaka has a ridiculous 28-2 K/BB ratio and his assortment of pitches has completely baffled the opposition. The Red Sox will surely be breaking down his first few outings with video, but Tanaka will still have the leg up for the first couple of times through the order. The Red Sox have also really struggled at the plate this season and are just 11th in the AL in runs scored through 19 games. Jon Lester goes for Boston and he's been pitching great as well. He's 2-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his four starts with a 29-4 K/BB ratio. Those numbers are definitely right up there with Tanaka, but the difference is that the Yankees will at least have a gameplan versus Lester based on a long history. New York also just welcomed back Mark Teixeira, and David Robertson is scheduled to come off the disabled list as well. Those are big boosts for a team that is already in first place in the AL East. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are still without Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks. The Yanks have the advantage on the mound today and are a bit healthier. More importantly, the price is right as Tanaka might not be an underdog for the rest of the season.
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04-18-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Miami Marlins -120 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Miami Marlins over Seattle Mariners (7:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners don't visit Miami often, but they begin a three-game series with the Marlins on Friday night. The Mariners are clearly an improved ballclub from last season. They added Robinson Cano and have several young pitchers on the rise that fans are excited about. But they are still a couple of pieces short and have some guys on the roster that are real head scratchers. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Chris Young. The nearly 35-year old has been in and out baseball over the last few years and his stuff has diminished considerably. With all of the injuries to the Mariners rotation, they decided to take a shot on him. But they probably would have been better-served going with one of their young arms in the minors. Young throws in the mid-80's and relies heavily on good control to get his desired results. He looked decent in his first start, but don't be fooled as he was fortunate more of his batted balls didn't fall for hits. There's a reason Young has been cut by several teams over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side, Nate Eovaldi is coming into this own for the Miami Marlins. He had a nice breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA, and his stuff looks even better so far this year. In his first three starts, Eovaldi has a sensational 19-1 K/BB ratio and is doing a great job inducing ground balls. I expect him to be in the running for an All-Star nomination this season, and he should be able to dominate a weak Mariners lineup that only has one threat. Take Miami as our 10-unit Game of the Week.
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04-15-14 | Kansas City Royals -150 v. Houston Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
4-unit Play #975 Kansas City Royals (-150) over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) Rookie phenom Yordano Ventura makes his second start of the season today in Houston. The 22-year old fireballer has been clocked with the fastest fastball in the majors and was extremely impressive in his first outing versus the Rays. He went six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and no walks. It's going to take the league a while to adjust to the stuff that Ventura brings, so the Astros will be up against it today. They already have one of the worst lineups in the league and they strike out a ton. Only the White Sox have struck out more often in the AL, so Ventura should get to double digits in punch outs today. On the other side of the ledger is Lucas Harrell for Houston. Harrell quite honestly is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball and should be working in the minor leagues. Last season he carried a 5.86 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 36 appearances. So far in 2014, it's even worse. In two starts he has a robust 11.05 ERA and 2.73 WHIP and hasn't made it through the fifth inning. Those are probably the worst numbers you will ever see from a major league pitcher, so this is likely Harrell's last start in the rotation unless he completely turns things around today. Don't count on it, Kansas City should win this one in a laugher. |
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04-10-14 | Cleveland Indians -123 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play #917 Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) There's a new trend in baseball over the last few years and it's not hard to spot. Young pitchers are starting to take over the game. Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran are just a few members of the 25-and-under club that are dominating major league hitters these days. But there's a new guy that you can add to that list - 24-year old Danny Salazar of the Indians. The right-hander was brilliant in his 10 starts last season, striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings and posting a 3.12 ERA. This will be his first full season and Cleveland is expecting him to produce like a #2 starter. But with the stuff that he has, he can be the ace of the Indians if he learns how to approach hitters. Today he'll get the White Sox, who were dead last in the AL last season in runs scored. Chicago made some nice moves in the offseason to bolster the offense, but they are still going to struggle to produce on a consistent basis. They are also traveling back across the country after finishing up a three-game series in Colorado yesterday. Going from that thin air and traveling to play a game nearly 2,000 miles the next day isn't easy. John Danks gets the ball for the Sox and he hasn't been the same since having shoulder surgery over a year ago. His velocity is down and his strikeout rate has fallen considerably from his earlier years. The Sox are hoping he can get them 200 innings with just average numbers, but that is going to be a stretch. The Indians are the better team, have the much better starting pitcher and the better bullpen. The line on this one is a bit too low, so we're on the Indians.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-05-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -122 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies are a great sleeper team for 2014 as the Dodgers and Giants are hogging most of the attention in the NL West as usual. Despite a poor showing overall the last few years, the Rockies have actually been very good when healthy. Unfortunately for them, keeping their team intact has been quite the challenge. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are the team's top two players, and they've had trouble staying off the disabled list for large amounts of time. But they're both in the lineup now and the Rockies have surrounded them with some nice pieces in the lineup. I also really like how the starting rotation is coming together, led by today's starter Jorge De La Rosa. The 33-year old left-hander had a breakthrough season in 2013, going 16-6 with a 3.49 ERA in 30 starts. That's impressive given how bad this team was overall last season (just 74 wins) and the fact that half of his starts were at Coors Field. I like what I saw from him this spring and think he can build on last year's great performance in 2014. He'll go up against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has gotten off to a rough start this season at just 1-6. The whole Australia trip may have adversely affected the team due to the lengthy travel, but the more pressing issue has been the pitching staff. With ace Patrick Corbin out, I don't think they can lean heavily on anyone in the rotation. They have a collection of arms that all feel like #3 or #4 starters, such as today's starter Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy wasn't right last year, with a 4.53 ERA, and he looked very lackluster in his first start of 2014. He may still be mentally affected by the line drive injury he had two seasons ago, or maybe it's mechanical. Colorado has one of the better home field advantage in baseball and they definitely have the better starting pitcher on the mound for this one. The price on this game seems awfully low, so we're on Colorado.
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10-18-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -125 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
10-unit Play #921 Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:35pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have their backs up against the wall, but they've certainly been here before. The argument can be made that this team actually enjoys the pressure and the big moments and plays even better when they really need to. The Dodgers started out the season an abysmal 30-42 and in the cellar of the NL West division. Critics ripped the team and management as nearly everyone wrote them off for 2013. But they rose to the occasion and went on one of the greatest runs in baseball history. They went 53-13 over their next 66 games and found themselves with a comfortable lead atop the NL West now. Fast forward to Wednesday as the Dodgers trailed 3-1 in the series to the Cardinals and once again people said that the Dodgers were done. But here they are with a chance to tie up the series with one of the best pitchers in the game on the mound. The fact is that this team is much better than there record indicates. They didn't have Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig for the first two months of the season and Zack Greinke was out most of that time with an injury as well. Since the end of June, nobody has put up the numbers the Dodgers have and they've never given up any hope in bringing a World Series to Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw has had an amazing season and we don't need to go over his spectacular resume. He pitched masterfully in Game Two against these Cardinals going six innings while allowing no earned runs and just two hits and a walk. Unfortunately an error cost him an unearned run and the Dodgers fell 1-0. Kershaw threw just 72 pitches in that game, but rest assured that he will go close to the distance today with the Dodgers needing a win. His mound opponent in that game was Michael Wacha and he pitched just as well. However, that was the first time that Los Angeles had ever seen the rookie live. Now that they've had a taste of his stuff, I expect them to make the proper adjustments and put some pressure on him. He's been pitching well, but remember that he's just a rookie and this is the biggest game of his career. The nerves could get to the youngster as he faces the most dangerous lineup in the league. I like the Dodgers to grab this victory amidst the pressure - like they always do.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-15-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers -148 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #914 Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox (4:05pm EST) He's back - Justin Verlander that is. The big right-hander is blowing away hitters right now and it's not just been in his two starts in the postseason. Going back to his start on September 23rd, Verlander has gone 27 straight innings without allowing a single run. During that span he has struck out 43 batters while walking six. His WHIP is an amazing 0.78 and he's pitching like he did two years ago when he won the Cy Young and nearly took home the MVP award. Add to that the struggles that the Boston Red Sox have had at the plate in the first two games and it's going to be hard to imagine many runs crossing the plate for the road team. Outside of a grand slam by David Ortiz in the 8th inning last night, Boston has looked silly at the plate in this series. Boston hitters have struck out 32 times in the two games and are batting a collective .136 at the plate. That's not good when Detroit's hottest pitcher gets the ball now. The Tigers are also extremely difficult to beat in Comerica over the last few seasons. They've won 50+ games there for five straight seasons and hold one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. John Lackey goes for Boston. He's had a pretty strong season, but his numbers tailed off down the stretch and he can't be trusted right now. In his last four regular season starts, Lackey posted an abysmal 5.33 ERA. He followed that up with a horrible postseason start against Tampa Bay in which he yielded four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of works. He was lucky to escape with a win there, but his performance was subpar and he doesn't appear confident. All signs point to Detroit tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-13-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) Game 2 of the ALCS gets underway this evening in Boston as the Red Sox look to even the score after last night's 1-0 loss. Pitchers dominated the hitters in Game One and today we'll see two more great pitchers on the mound. Max Scherzer goes for the Tigers and he's had a masterful season. He finished the regular season 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and will likely be bringing home a Cy Young award when it's announced. Clay Buchholz very well could have been in the Cy Young race had he not gotten injured and missed several months. He finished the season 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in roughly half of a season. Needless to say, these pitchers have been dominant and there's no big edge either way there. However, if you break down the rest of these teams, Boston has the edge in every other major category. At the plate, the Red Sox were the best team in baseball - scoring 57 more runs than the Tigers in the regular season. Defensively Boston has an edge as well and once the game gets into the bullpen they have a better 8th inning guy and a better closer than the Tigers do. This game is also in Boston, where the Red Sox went 53-28 this season. That was the best mark in the AL and Detroit was barely over .500 on the road this season. Adding it all up, it appears that this line is a bit short. We'll take Boston here to even up the series.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-10-13 | Detroit Tigers -105 v. Oakland A's | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Detroit over Oakland (Thursday 8:05 pm TBS) Historically these are the type of games that Oakland does not win during the Billy Beane tenure. Oakland lost to Detroit last year in a Game 5 at home and history will repeat itself on Thursday night. Justin Verlander has not been himself this season; however, he pitched well in Game 2 of the ALDS and will give us another great outing on Thursday. The Tigers have a much better line-up than does Oakland especially with Johnny Peralta back from suspension. Detroit is 20-8 in games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog in the playoffs.
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10-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals -155 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 St. Louis Cardinals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates had their chance to close out this series at home on Monday and failed. Now they face the extremely difficult task of heading back to St. Louis in a deciding Game 5 against Adam Wainwright. He's a tough customer and has come up big in huge games for the Cardinals in the past. This Pirates team has a lot of grit and plays well beyond their talent level, but this is too much to ask. They're not quite ready to take a game this big, but it will be a great learning experience. Rookie Gerrit Cole will get the ball for Pittsburgh in this game. He pitched great in Game 2 of the series against the Cardinals, but this game is different. His team is counting on him and it's an enormous amount of pressure for a 23-year old. It wouldn't be surprising at all if he crumbles under the pressure, while the Cardinals expect Wainwright to pitch well. St. Louis also owns the second best home record in baseball at 54-27 and their crowd is going to be full of energy tonight. All signs point to the Pirates here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-07-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays +104 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 104 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (6:05pm EST) It's do or die time for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, but they are accustomed to this scenario. They've already faced three elimination games since the last day of the regular season. They are obviously 3-for-3 in those games to get where they are today versus the Boston Red Sox. Big pitching performances have kept this team alive, and I fully expect them to get another one today from Alex Cobb. The young right-hander pitched very well in the AL Wild Card game against the Indians. Cobb was also one of the best pitchers in the AL down the stretch and finished the 2013 season at 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He'll get a tough assignment today versus the Red Sox, but the Rays have been very tough to beat in Tropicana Field. They finished the season 51-30 at home. The Red Sox counter with Clay Buchholz in this one, who has made just four starts since coming back from the disabled list. He looked ok in those starts, but nothing like he did earlier on in the season when he dominated. Cobb is certainly pitching better and that combined with the home field advantage makes this line in a little too low. Take the Rays to keep this series alive.
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10-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -111 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (5:35pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays look to even the series against the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS. David Price gets the ball for the Rays and he was sensational in the tiebreaker game against the Texas Rangers on Monday. As last year's Cy Young, everyone knows that Price can pitch. But he seems to be getting more comfortable with the spotlight and poised to reach the next level into elite status. He'll go up a very tough Red Sox lineup that put up 12 runs yesterday. However, Price has fared well against Boston in his career and he should get some more run support today. That's because John Lackey hasn't been pitching very well recently. Over his last four starts, Lackey posted a 5.33 ERA and his velocity has tapered off a bit from where it was mid-season. He also has had much success against the Rays' hitters, so I expect him to struggle again today. The Rays are a resilient bunch and they're not going to let yesterday's drubbing get to them. I think they even the series behind a strong performance from Price.
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates -125 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (8:05pm EST) The playoffs have finally arrived and it begins with a National Wild Card game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night. These NL Central foes are certainly familiar with one another and they've also played six times over the last week and a half of the season. The Pirates won four of those six games and took the season series 11-8. The Pirates were also the better team this season, winning 94 games versus 90 for the Reds. That earned them home field advantage for this game, which was vitally important given their 50-31 home mark. The Pirates will also have the edge in the starting pitching department today, as Francisco Liriano goes up against Johnny Cueto. Liriano has been dominant this season at 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. Cueto was injured for most of the 2013 campaign and this will be only his third start since returning from the disabled list. He was pretty good in his last two starts, but you don't know what you're going to get from him in this pressure-packed game. All signs point to Pittsburgh today. They were the better team in the regular season, won the season series, are at home for this game and have an edge in the pitching matchup. Take the Pirates to advance at a relatively low price here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-25-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners -106 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (10:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals have had a great season. They won't be in the postseason, but they certainly exceeded expectations this season and are relevant once again on the diamond. They technically aren't mathematically eliminated at 83-74, but they know it's not happening with three teams ahead of them and only five games left to make up a four game deficit. After yesterday's 4-0 loss, defeat probably began setting in and this team has to be deflated after a valiant effort to make a return to the postseason for the first time in 28 years. This is their last game in Seattle before heading on a plane back to Chicago to close out the season. The Mariners didn't have a great season, but they're better than most people think. They have a terrible 19-29 record in one run games and are just 6-15 in extra-inning games. They have several young players on the horizon and have improved throughout the season despite what their record indicates. Hisashi Iwakuma has established himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL and today he'll get one final start to cap off a great season. On a team that is 20 games under .500, Iwakuma checks in at 13-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He should have the advantage today against a Royals lineup that will probably be hanging their heads a little lower. Take the Mariners as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-17-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -129 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm EST) The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals will play two today after the horrific incident in Washington D.C. yesterday. It should be an emotional day for Washington fans and players, which could give the team a bit of an edge today. We're focusing on Game 2 of the doubleheader for a couple of reasons. First off, the Braves have the division locked up and will probably be looking to rest a few guys on the back end. There's no reason to wear anyone down with the playoffs just two weeks away. For the Nats, these games are virtually must wins. They are still five games back in the wild card chase and can't afford too many more losses. There's no question manager Davey Johnson will utilize the lineup that gives his team the best chance to win, including the best arms out of the bullpen. That Nats also get to face veteran Freddy Garcia in the nightcap. Garcia is 37-years old and really doesn't belong in the league anymore. He is 4-6 this season with a hefty 4.86 ERA and a significantly decreasing strikeout rate of only 4.5 per nine innings. Washington has been swinging the bats better of late and could bounce Garcia very early. That could spell trouble in a doubleheader where Atlanta will surely use some of their weaker arms to avoid wear and tear. The Nats are 19-6 in their last 25 games and I think they win the second game of the doubleheader against the Braves today.
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09-11-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers -121 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have come back to earth a bit after a torrid run, but this is still the most complete team in all of baseball. They have one of the best lineups in the league, a great bullpen and the best 1-2-3 top of the rotation pitchers. The #3 guy in that rotation is left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. He doesn't get as much attention as Kershaw and Greinke do, but Ryu has eclipsed expectations in his first season in the major leagues. He comes in 13-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. He knows how to attack hitters and is adept and keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding the home run ball. He'll face an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has just fallen out of contention recently. They're probably not in the best state of mind at the moment, so the Dodgers are catching them at the perfect time. The Dodgers are 45-28 at home this season, while the D-backs have struggled on the road. These last couple of weeks are important for playoff positioning and home field advantage, so I expect the Dodgers to get back on the winning track. Take them today at a very reasonable price at home.
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08-28-13 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) The season has long been over for the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. The defending World Series champs fell well short of expectations in 2013, but one bright spots continues to be left-hander Madison Bumgarner. He comes in 11-8 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP - his best season yet as a major leaguer. He'll get a tough assignment today pitching in Coors Field, but the Rockies offense has been as good lately and is without Carlos Gonzalez. On the other side is right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. The 25-year old has put up the best numbers of his career as well, but he's not at the level of a Bumgarner yet. His peripheral statistics show a pitcher who is about a run worse than his ERA indicates. The Rockies offense is also a bit overrated due to the inflation of Coors Field. They are a middle of the pack hitting team that looks a lot better on paper than they really are. Their biggest problem is on defense, where they are at the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. That doesn't do their pitchers any favors and is even more frustrating in a big park like Coors Field. The Giants are the better team and have the favorable pitching matchup today. Take San Francisco here.
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08-25-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Dodgers +102 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Dodgers Boston Red Sox (8:05pm ET) The rubber game of the series goes today in Los Angeles as the Dodgers host the Boston Red Sox in the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week. These are two of the best teams in the game and it could be a potential World Series matchup in October. But clearly no one has been playing at the level that the Dodgers have recently. They are 46-11 in their last 57 games and have not lost the last 18 series they competed in. Today is the series deciding game, so they'll need to win to keep that streak alive. I'm sure they are well aware of their accomplishments and will be 100% focused to try and keep the run intact. Our money is on the hottest team in baseball. They are an underdog at home, which is complete disrespect. Take the Dodgers.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-24-13 | Washington Nationals -107 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #979 Washington Nationals over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm ET) We mentioned it yesterday, but it certainly bears repeating. If this game was taking place during the first week of April this season (with these pitching matchups), the line would certainly be 40-50 cents higher for the Nationals. Now that's not the only reason to make a play on Washington today, but it's a good start. Jordan Zimmermann is one of the better pitchers in the National League at 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is coming off of one of his worst performances of the year and was embarrassed after giving up eight runs in five innings against the Cubs last time out. That should motivate him to pitch well today in Kansas City, as good pitchers don't let themselves get knocked around on back-to-back occasions very often. The Royals are feeling pretty down about themselves after losing 9 of 11 and falling out of contention for a playoff spot. They were on the cusp of the wild card race after a very strong run at the end of July and beginning of August. But now they are on the verge of falling back to .500 with a loss today. Wade Davis pitches for the Royals and he has been a ticking time bomb this season. He's 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.75 WHIP and it's a bit surprising he's still in the Royals rotation. Washington has been hitting better recently and I have no doubt that they'll get some good hacks on the struggling right-hander. Take the Nats as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-21-13 | Washington Nationals -105 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Washington Nationals over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm ET) The Washington Nationals have had a terrible season, but they think they still have a shot for a wild card. It's not going to happen, but as long as they believe it they may be a valuable team to back. They still have plenty of talent and they haven't made a big run yet. Today they are essentially an even bet against an inferior opponent in the Cubs. If you just purely at numbers, this line seems about right. However, when you are looking at betting opportunities you have to project what's going to happen and not what already happened. This Nationals team is far superior to the Cubs and we'll gladly take them at even price today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-20-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +100 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) We played the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles in game one of this series, and we like them again today for all of the same reasons. The Rays are just better in every important phase of the game from hitting, to bullpens, to defense and to today's starting pitchers. People may forget, but there was a long stretch earlier this season where Alex Cobb was the best pitcher on the Rays' staff and one of the best pitchers in the league. But then he was struck by a line drive in the head and it changed his season and his life. He's back in the rotation now making his second start since coming off the disabled list. In watching his first star back he looked just like the old Cobb. He went five innings (on a pitch count) and only allowed one run, three hits and two walks while striking out six. He'll have a stiffer challenge today against a dangerous O's lineup, but I expect him to do well. Take the Rays here at the underdog price.
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08-17-13 | Washington Nationals +110 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 8-7 | Win | 110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) Stephen Strasburg was once the talk of baseball and everyone's favorite young pitcher. But a mediocre season by the Washington Nationals has taken a lot of the attention off of the Nats ace, and that bodes well for us today. Strasburg has pitched brilliantly in his last five outings, registering a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP to go along with a nice 44-6 K/BB ratio. That's pure dominance and the Strasburg that everyone expected to see after breaking on the scene in 2010. He'll face a red hot Braves team today in Atlanta. The Braves are 18-2 in their last 20 games and have a stranglehold on the division now. The Nationals are 15.5 games back in the NL East and their only hope is a long shot at a wild card spot should one of the teams in the NL Central falter. The fact that Atlanta has such a big lead could play to Washington's advantage here today as this game is much bigger for them than it is for Atlanta. Mike Minor will toe the rubber for the Braves and he's put together a pretty good 2013 campaign. He's 12-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and has improved his peripherals across the board. However, he's coming off of back-to-back subpar outings against the Marlins and these Nationals. This game is all about Strasburg though. He's pitching about as well as anyone in the league right now and is a steal at an underdog price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-13-13 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Dodgers -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #912 Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets (10:10pm ET) Since 1950, only one team has had a better stretch over 45 games than the Dodgers have right now. Los Angeles is 37-8 during their current run and they |
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08-09-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Seattle Mariners -126 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Milwaukee Brewers (10:10pm ET) We've been pumping up the Seattle Mariners for quite some time. They haven't been knocking anyone's socks off, but they've been good enough to cash more tickets than they lose and bad enough to keep the spotlight off of themselves. That's the perfect scenario in the betting world and we'll continue to look to play them when the line is right. Today is one of those opportunities as they host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first of three games in Safeco Field. The Brewers aren't too familiar with Safeco and it's a fairly long flight from Milwaukee. That should give the M's a little more home field advantage than normal in today's matchup. And speaking of home field advantage, Seattle starter Joe Saunders certainly knows how to use Safeco to his advantage. He has better numbers there than anywhere else during his career and 2013 is no exception. His ERA on the road is a puffy 5.33, but in Seattle he checks in at a cool 3.62. The Brewers are also a mess on offense right now with all of their injuries. Starting third baseman Aramis Ramirez is hurt along with second baseman Rickie Weeks. And of course Ryan Braun is gone for the season due to his PED suspension. That leaves the Brewers with some pretty big holes and some easy outs in the lineup. Take Seattle tonight as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-07-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -120 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #914 Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (3:40pm ET) A quick glance at the names in the lineups and pitching staffs wouldn
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08-01-13 | Seattle Mariners -110 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #917 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners have cooled off a bit, but they are still an undervalued commodity in the betting markets. They are 15-9 in their last 24 games and have brought home bettors over six units during that stretch. Today they send their ace Felix Hernandez to the hill to take on the Boston Red Sox. Hernandez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few years, but this year he is taking it to another level. He
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08-01-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -111 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates look to earn a rare five game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals tonight in PNC Park. This was the biggest series for the Pirates franchise in 20+ years and they are definitely answering the bell. They came into the series down 1.5 games in the NL Central and now have a 2.5 game lead coming into today's contest. Right-hander Charlie Morton goes for Pittsburgh and he's done a fine job after being inserted into the rotation mid-season due to injuries. He comes in 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.29 WHIP and hasn't had a really bad outing in his eight starts. The Cardinals have not been hitting the ball lately and are now without team leader Yadier Molina, which will hurt significantly on offense and defense. St. Louis is averaging a meager 1.4 runs per game over the last seven games. St. Louis will turn to Joe Kelly as they look to stop the bleeding. Kelly has pitched out of the bullpen for most of the season but was added to the rotation about two weeks ago. He's pitched alright but surely won't be able to give the Cardinals more than five or six innings. That leaves three of four innings for the shaky bullpen in the late innings - where the Pirates thrive. Pittsburgh has one of the best bullpens in baseball, so if this one is close late in the game the Pirates are big favorites. Pittsburgh has too much momentum here and I think they complete the five-game sweep tonight.
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07-27-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -137 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -137 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #972 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners have continued to put money in our pockets and today we get another great opportunity to back them. The M
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07-24-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners +100 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Seattle Mariners over Cleveland Indians (3:40pm ET) Until the Seattle Mariners are taken seriously, we will continue to call their number at the betting window. The M's are an underdog at home versus a team that they are playing much better than right now and probably will have a better record than very shortly. The Mariners are now 16-9 in their last 25 games despite playing the toughest schedule in the majors during that span. Two left-handers take the hill in today's matchup - Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. Both of them are better pitchers than their surface stats give them credit for, but Saunders is a totally different pitcher in Seattle than he is anywhere else. In 2013, his ERA is over two runs better at home versus the road at 3.11. Kazmir has had a nice comeback this season, but he's slipped up enough lately to heed some warning. He's walked three batters in each of his last three outings and his strikeouts have been declining steadily as the season has worn on. Coming into this season, Kazmir had pitched a total of only 1 2/3 innings in two seasons, so it would understandable if the 92 innings he's thrown this season is starting to take its toll. We'll continue to ride the streaking Mariners today.
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07-23-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners -111 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners (-110) over Cleveland Indians (10:10pm ET) This may sound like a broken record based on our selections over the last couple of weeks, but we like the Seattle Mariners. They are a perfect value team that flies under the radar and they've certainly proved that recently. They are 15-9 in their last 24 games despite playing the toughest schedule in baseball during that stretch. The M's don't look like much on paper, especially offensively, but when you consider the fact that they play in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball they aren't too bad. We'll continue to put our money on the line with them while they're hot and not getting any respect.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-22-13 | Cleveland: U Jimenez v. Seattle: A Harang -110 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Seattle Mariners over Cleveland Indians (10:10pm ET) They don't get much attention in the betting markets, but that's how we like it. The Seattle Mariners are quietly on the one of the best runs in the majors over the last three weeks. At 14-9 in their last 23 games, it doesn't sound like much of a run. But when you consider who they have played, it's spectacular. Over that stretch, they played against some of the toughest teams in the majors including the A's, Pirates, Rangers, Reds, Red Sox and Angels. To start the second half they squashed the hapless Astros with ease in a three-game sweep. The combined score in the series was 26-14. The Mariners now head back home to take on the Cleveland Indians in a three-game set. Right-hander Aaron Harang will toe the rubber for them. He's had an up and down season at 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA, but his peripheral numbers point to a much better pitcher than that. His WHIP is just 1.29 and he has had excellent control walking just 1.6 batters per nine innings. His home run rate is higher than he would like, but that shouldn't come into play as much in Safeco Field today. And due to that fact, Harang has pitched much better at home all season long as his ERA is over a run lower there. As inconsistent as Harang has been, the Indians' Ubaldo Jimenez can top it. The 29-year old right-hander has pitched some absolute gems this year and followed them up with some extremely short outings. You never know what you'll get from him, but I expect the hot swinging bats of the Mariners to produce coming off a series in which they scored 26 runs. Seattle is in a groove right now and we get a gift with this small price on them at home. I'm a believer, take the M's.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-19-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Chicago White Sox +125 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #980 Chicago White Sox over Atlanta Braves (8:10pm ET) The second half of the season is here, and for some teams It
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07-14-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -131 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #910 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) The red hot Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies to close out the final series before the break. The Dodgers have found every which way to win ball games over the last few weeks, catapulting themselves from the cellar of the NL West up to second place. They are 17-4 in their 21 games and are now just 2.5 games out of first place. Right-hander Ricky Nolasco will be entrusted to keep the momentum going today. The 30-year old was just acquired a week ago and he looked comfortable in the Dodger uniform from the get go. He shut down the Diamondbacks, holding them to just one run in seven innings to go along with five strikeouts and no walks. The Rockies lineup hasn't been producing much over the last couple of weeks with several guys banged up. They're starting to get healthier but things have yet to click for them. Nolasco should get a friendly welcome in Dodgers Stadium and I expect Los Angeles to come out on top today and keep their momentum going.
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07-12-13 | San Francisco Giants -108 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres (10:10pm ET) As we head into the final weekend series before the All-Star break, two teams that can't wait for a few days off match up tonight. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants in the second game of their four game series at Petco. There probably isn't a team in baseball that has been playing worse than the Giants or Padres have been playing over the last couple of weeks. The Padres are fresh off 10-game losing streak while the Giants are 2-14 after Wednesday's loss to the Mets. But somebody has to win today and I like the chances for the Giants. The Padres are nursing several key injuries to their everyday lineup right now, while the Giants recently got some of their guys back. Out are Yasmani Grandal, Jedd Gyorko, Cameron Maybin and Yonder Alonso for the Pads. Those are four significant contributors for San Diego and are the main reason that they've really struggled to plate runs. They'll also be sending Sean O'Sullivan to the mound, who will be making his first major league start since 2011. The young right-hander has spent most of his career in the minors but is getting a shot to show what he's got today. He hasn't been particularly impressive against weaker competition, so it's tough to picture him having success at the highest level. The Giants are a smart hitting team and should be patient enough to put some pressure on the youngster in the early innings. Chad Gaudin gets the nod for the Giants, and he's been solid since being moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He's made five starts and has an ERA of 2.86 and a 0.99 WHIP. That's much better than anyone expected from a guy that's spent the last three years in the pen. And I like his chances of keeping it up against a depleted Padres lineup. Take the Giants today laying a small price.
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07-10-13 | Boston: F Doubront v. Seattle: A Harang +120 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #954 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (10:10pm ET) The Red Sox and Mariners battle today in Seattle in the third game of their four game set. There
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07-08-13 | New York Mets -106 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 New York Mets over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm ET) We're past the halfway point of the 2013 season and the New York Mets' Matt Harvey is still dominating big league hitters on a consistent basis. In fact, if the Cy Young were being given out right now, Matt Harvey would be able to make a heck of a case that he deserves it. He comes in 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 18 starts. His strikeout rate is off the charts at 10.3 batters per nine innings and he's walking less than two batters per nine innings. He doesn't have any weaknesses and today he will face a San Francisco Giants team that has really scuffled at the plate for the last few weeks. Over their last 20 games the Giants are averaging just 2.2 runs per game, which is dead last in the majors over their time frame. The next closest team has scored 17 more runs than the Giants over that span! So Matt Harvey is absolutely the last guy the Giants want to see tonight. On the other side, Tim Lincecum will be in charge of holding down the Mets hitters. Lincecum has had another inconsistent campaign in 2013, registering a 4.66 ERA in 17 starts. That is on the heels of a season in which he held a 5.18 ERA and where he was demoted to the bullpen in the playoffs. Lincecum is in danger of losing his job once again, and I fully expect it to happen shortly. He just doesn't have the control anymore and can't avoid the big inning. The Mets don't have a powerful offense by any stretch of the imagination, but Lincecum almost always allows at least three or four runs no matter the opponent. Take New York behind Matt Harvey here at a very short price.
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07-05-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm ET) Two veteran starting pitchers go at it as the Philadelphia Phillies kick off a weekend series with the Atlanta Braves. Tim Hudson and Cliff Lee have been solid pitchers for quite some time, but only one of them has continued his dominance. Cliff Lee is a like a fine wine - he's been getting better with age. His last couple of seasons have been excellent and this season he's putting up some of the best numbers of his career at the age of 34. So far in 17 starts he's 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and he still has excellent control walking only 1.5 batters per nine innings. In only two of his starts he has allowed more than three earned runs, so he is giving his team a shot to win each and every game. He'll face a Braves lineup that has had a hard time hitting him in the past, so I expect that continue today. Hudson has stayed in pretty good health and managed to keep a spot in the Atlanta rotation at the age of 37. However, he hasn't been nearly as effective as he was a few years back. He's having his worst season ERA wise since 2006 and the Braves have lost more games than they've won when he's been on the mound. I think this Braves ballclub is overrated even though they've been sitting atop the NL East for the entire season. Since getting off to a hot start in April at 12-1, they are just 37-35 in the 72 games since. They have some glaring holes in the lineup and have been extremely inconsistent in scoring runs. I like the Phillies today at home behind on of the NL's best pitchers.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-29-13 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) It's been a difficult year Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants, but things are starting to come together. The veteran right-hander comes into today's start in Colorado with a 5-4 record and 4.45 ERA on the season, but his last four starts have been the old Cain. He has a 2.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in those outings and his control has been getting a lot better. He hasn't walked a single batter in his last two outings and has 18 strikeouts to his name. Pitching in Coors Field won't be easy, but he has an excellent track record against the Rockies' regulars in his career so I expect him to pitch well today. The Giants haven't been swinging the bats very well lately, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro were both out for a bit, but they have returned and are contributing again. Jorge De La Rosa gets the ball for Rockies. He's had a nice season, but he hasn't looked as sharp recently walking three batters in each of his last three starts. The Rockies will also be without the heart and soul of their team today - Troy Tulowitzki. His absence hurts on both the offense and defense and in the clubhouse. I'll take Cain and the Giants in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-22-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Cleveland Indians -146 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (7:15pm ET) He's one of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball and most baseball fans couldn't pick him out of a lineup. His name is Corey Kluber and he's been amazing in his last six starts for the Cleveland Indians. During that stretch the right-hander has a 2.19 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with an exceptional 40-6 K/BB ratio. There's no telling if Kluber can keep this up for an entire season, but right now he's untouchable. The Minnesota Twins don't have a daunting lineup, so there's no reason to believe they can break through against the youngster. The Indians have been playing great ball lately winning seven of their last nine and their pitching has been the main reason. Over those nine contests, they have held opponents to an average of just 2.33 runs per game. They face right-hander P.J. Walters for the Twins today and he doesn't have very good stuff. He's only had five starts this season and has managed to keep his team in the game in most of them, but he's not the type of guy that will dominate. I like the Indians to get an easy win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-13 | Texas Rangers -102 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #977 Texas Rangers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm ET) Two of baseball's best go at in a rematch of the epic 2011 World Series. What the St. Louis Cardinals have been doing on offense has simply been amazing in 2013.They lead the majors in runs scored, but it's how they are doing it that is mind-boggling. They are only 11th in home runs in the NL, but they are hitting a ridiculous .340 with runners in scoring position. That's 65 points higher than the next best team in the league! Their on-base percentage with runners in scoring position is .410 - which is 36 points higher than the second best. This has obviously been the key to their success in 2013, but the fact is they simply cannot sustain that level of success going forward. There is going to be obvious regression and that should supply us with some value in the near future. The Texas Rangers will get a crack at them today, and I like the pitching matchup for them. A pair of left-handers face off as veteran Derek Holland goes against rookie Tyler Lyons. Holland is having a banner year in 2013 while Lyons has had his bumps in the road for sure. I made the line on this game close to -120 for the Rangers, so we'll gladly take them at close to a pick em price here.
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06-11-13 | New York Yankees +101 v. Oakland A's | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 New York Yankees at Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) The New York Yankees have been a mash unit this season, but the troops are slowly coming back. Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis are back in the daily lineup and Curtis Granderson isn't far behind. It's amazing that New York was able to stay afloat without so many key parts, but they have a lot of veterans and leadership on this team and it's definitely shown. CC Sabathia is one of those leaders, and despite a few bumps here and there he looks like he finally has it together. He pitched a complete game in his last outing while striking out nine and walking just one. He did allow four runs, but the Yankees jumped out to an early 6-0 lead and Sabathia cruised from there. In the outing before that, Sabathia struck out 10 batters with no walks against the Red Sox. He won that game as he only allowed one run in 7 1/3 innings. His velocity has also been steadily climbing since the end of April and that's a good sign for the tall left-hander. Bartolo Colon and the Oakland A's will face the Yankees tonight. Colon has put up solid numbers this season but he'll have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that features lots of lefties. He faced the Yankees earlier this season and surrendered three runs in just 5 1/3 innings in a loss. He's been throwing the ball very well lately, but he doesn't throw hard and relies on pinpoint control. The Yankees have a veteran lineup that has seen Colon plenty of times before, so they know what they're up against and have had good results against him in the past. Both of these teams come into today's game playing good baseball. The Yankees have won six out of seven and the A's are 18-5 in their last 23 contests. I give the Yanks the edge with the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen in case things are tight in the late innings. Play New York as our 10-unit Game.
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06-09-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (4:10pm ET) The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants in the rubber game of the series this afternoon. They don't get a lot of attention, but the Diamondbacks have been leading the National League West for most of the season. They are a balanced team without any big superstars, but they don't have any big weaknesses either. They're also very deep and have been able to stay atop the division despite missing several key players for large chunks of time. One of the guys who have stepped in due to injury is today's starter Tyler Skaggs. And just like the replacements before him, he has fit in beautifully. In his first two starts he is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 13-3 K/BB ratio. Skaggs was a highly touted prospect in the system that couldn't make the team in the spring due to the ascension of Patrick Corbin, but he clearly has some talent. He may never be demoted back to the minor leagues again if he can continue to pitch like this. The Giants will have their hands full with Skaggs today, especially since Pablo Sandoval is getting a day off. He's been nursing a foot injury, so San Francisco is letting him rest in this one. Reliever Chad Gaudin gets the ball for the Giants today. He is filling in for the injured Ryan Vogelsong in the rotation. Gaudin filled in well as a starter last time out, but I don't think he has the stamina to go more than five or six innings on a regular basis. He hasn't been a regular starter since 2007, so the expectations are certainly low. The Diamondbacks are the better overall team and have the better starting pitcher throwing today. They're also at home, so we get a steal of a price in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -109 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs (2:20pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates have their best team in over 20 years and this will be the year they are above .500 at season's end. They have a good lineup, a phenomenal bullpen and some good arms in the rotation. One of those arms is left-hander Francisco Liriano. The 29-year old missed the first few weeks of the season, but since coming back he's been pitching better than ever. He comes into today's start with a 2.17 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and is striking out a ridiculous 12.1 batters per nine innings. He's also walking fewer batters than usual and inducing ground balls at a higher rate. Expect him to continue his domination today as he faces a Chicago Cubs lineup that really struggles against southpaws. The Cubs will go to battle with a left-hander of their own - Travis Wood. He's putting together a nice season in his own right, but he's been fortunate to post a 2.75 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates are very average and he doesn't keep the ball down either. He's just an averaged pitcher disguised as someone who looks improved. We should see some regression from Wood the rest of the season and I think the Pirates lineup can get that started this afternoon. Even if Wood keeps the Cubs close, the game probably comes down to the bullpens. That's where the Cubs have given away countless games over the last couple of seasons and 2013 is no exception. The Cubs bullpen ranks 14th in the National League in ERA while the Pirates rank 2nd. The Pirates have the edge in all departments in this game and barely favored. That puts us on Pittsburgh as our 10-unit Game for June.
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06-05-13 | Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Boston Red Sox over Texas Rangers (7:10pm ET) When the Boston Red Sox were getting a lot of publicity due to their turnaround earlier on the in the season, the names Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were being tossed around for the primary reason. However, veteran pitcher John Lackey has been pitching fantastic as well but has sort of been lost in the shuffle. Coming into today's start, the 34-year old has a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to go along with his 8.9 strikeout rate per nine innings. Those numbers are even better than the version of Lackey before his big injuries. It's only been eight starts, but I think it's safe to say that Lackey is back. He'll go up against a tough Texas lineup today, but one that's not as potent as it's been in the past. The Rangers are just 7th in the AL in runs scored, which isn't very impressive given that they play in a hitter-friendly environment. They're also without Ian Kinsler right now and Adrian Beltre is also banged up. Texas will counter with Alexei Ogando, who is coming back from a bicep injury. The Rangers aren't 100% sure that Ogando should stay in the rotation due to his inconsistency, as he might be a better fit in the bullpen where he excelled last season. I would have to agree, as Ogando has trouble with the batting order the second and third time around. The Red Sox have been swinging the bats very well lately, which will make things even harder on Ogando today. Boston leads the AL in runs scored and 41 runs in their last five games, including a 17-run barrage last night. The price on this one is just a little bit too low. Take Boston at home here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-02-13 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (8:05pm ET) It's the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox. This is the rubber game of the series as these teams split the first pair in two games that weren't very close. The Yankees haven't been playing very good baseball of late as they've dropped six of seven and have been struggling to put runs on the board. But that's sure to change as the Bronx Bombers just welcomed back Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira on Friday. The replacements for New York have done pretty well overall given the vast amount of injuries to the team, but these are definitely major upgrades and it changes the entire complexion of the infield. In short, expect the bats to start waking up and the Yankees to put more runs on the board. Hiroki Kuroda goes for the Yanks today and he's put together another solid season. The 38-year old veteran is 6-3 with a miniscule 2.39 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 starts in 2013. Unlike his teammate Phil Hughes, Kuroda is fit to pitch in Yankees Stadium as he's good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the home run ball in a park where the ball jumps. Clay Buchholz gets the ball for the BoSox and he's had a nice year as well at 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. However, Buchholz missed his turn in the rotation last time around due to a collarbone injury. He's giving it a shot tonight, but there's no guarantee that he's 100% for this one. Even if Buchholz pitches well, I think this will be a close game that comes down to the bullpens. And if that's the case, the Yankees have a huge edge with Robertson and Rivera in the 8th and 9th innings. Take the Yankees at home tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-13 | New York Mets -107 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (4:00pm ET) The Miami Marlins are on pace to lose nearly 110 games and it could be even worse if they don't get healthy soon. Baseball's most embarrassing team is winning just 25% of its games and their disabled list is starting to stack up. They currently have a dozen players on the list and most notably superstar Giancarlo Stanton. The Fish are averaging only 2.76 runs per game in 2013 and without Stanton their lineup is Triple-A grade. The linesmakers and betting markets haven't quite caught up to just how bad this team is, evidenced by the fact that they are still down 20 units on the season as a team. Today's line also doesn't reflect it as they are basically even with the Mets. Now the New York Mets aren't a great team at 22-30 on the season, but they have much more talent than the Marlins do. In fact, they just swept the Yankees in four games earlier this week in impressive fashion. The starting pitching matchup does favor Miami today as they send rookie Jose Fernandez to the mound. He's been one of very few bright spots on this club, but his last three starts haven't been as good. The league is catching up and I don't expect much more success in his first season on a team without any support. In all other areas, the Mets are clearly the better squad. Take the Mets at a gift price against one of the worst teams in the modern era.
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05-31-13 | Washington Nationals -106 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (7:30pm ET) The Washington Nationals haven't been playing to their talent level this season at just 27-27. However, there are still over 100 games remaining in 2013 and I feel like this team has it in them to eventually turn this ship around. This weekend is a good place to start as they go up against the first place Atlanta Braves starting on Friday night. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Nats and he's coming off of his best outing of the season last time out. He pitched a season high eight innings against the Phillies allowing just one run while strikeout out nine and walking none. He hasn't been as sharp as he was last season, but this might be the start he needs to get himself over the hump. Rookie Julio Teheran will pitch for the Braves in this one. He has lots of potential but is still trying to figure things out at the major league level. The Braves are also extremely depleted in their bullpen with three of their top guys out. That could be a huge factor if Teheran struggles, or if the game is tight in the late innings. I like Strasburg and the Nats to notch a win today in Atlanta.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-29-13 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants -123 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland A's (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants and Oakland A's shift their series to AT&T Park on Wednesday night. Right-hander Tim Lincecum goes up against southpaw Tommy Milone in what should be a good game. Lincecum has pitched much better than his 4.75 ERA indicates. His biggest problem has been his control and avoiding the big inning. He's striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings and is getting enough groundballs, so I think he can overcome the occasional walk with the kind of stuff he has. His mound presence has also been a lot better than it was last season. The Giants have been swinging the bats well and are the best offense in the National League on a park-adjusted basis. They should be able to give Milone some problems, as he's a much different pitcher away from home. He had some of the biggest home/road splits last season and that's carried forward into this season. Both of these teams have good team chemistry and send out two capable starters to the hill today. I just like this Giants team more than the A' s and prefer Lincecum at home to Milone on the road. San Francisco is the play.
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05-25-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -123 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -123 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (4:10pm ET) Not all trends in baseball mean anything, but today we have one that is worth looking at. Since 2006, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 10-50 in their 60 games in Miller Park. That is the worst such mark of any team versus any other team away from home during that span. These are just two strong home teams, so it makes some sense that the Brewers have done really well against the Pirates and can expect the domination to continue. Two fairly weak starting pitchers square off in this one, so I'm expecting this game to be decided more by the offenses than anything else. The Brewers and Pirates have scored about the same number of runs this season, but Milwaukee hits much better against left-handers and they are facing southpaw Jeff Locke today. The Brewers have a potent lineup that may feature three All-Stars this summer - Ryan Braun, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. Don't forget that they also have Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks as well. This one could turn into a slug fest and I like the Brewers chances to outslug the Pirates if that's the case. Take Milwaukee at a very acceptable price given the history.
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05-24-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -144 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies as the two teams begin a three-game set in AT&T Park this weekend. These teams met last week in Colorado and the Rockies took three of the four games in that series. However, the Rockies are a very tough team to beat in Coors Field, so I expect this series to be a complete 180 from last week. Both teams have identical 26-21 records overall, but the Giants are 17-8 at home this season while the Rockies are just 10-12 on the road. The Giants are also better than the Rockies in every phase of the game. They have the better starting pitcher today, the better bullpen, they play better defense and they also have a better offense after taking into account park effects. Tim Lincecum is the Giants starter and he's looked really good overall despite a few rough outings. His peripheral numbers have improved from last season and he's slowly getting back to his old form. Tyler Chatwood goes for the Rockies and he's been a great bet against guy during his career. He's struggled with his confidence and I've never really liked his stuff very much. This game has the Giants written all over it.
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05-21-13 | New York Yankees +106 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) Phil Hughes has given up 13 runs in his last two starts and has a ridiculous 18.47 ERA in those outings. In the four starts previous, he had a 1.93 ERA and a 30-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But that's who Hughes is - an inconsistent pitcher who has more than his share of ups and downs. But one thing can definitely be said for Hughes is that he shouldn't be allowed to pitch in Yankee Stadium. He's a right-handed fly ball pitcher, and that's not good in a stadium with a short porch in right field. Today we get him on the road, where he's been more comfortable his entire career. The Baltimore Orioles are sliding a bit lately, losing six straight games. I didn't think this team was as strong as advertised last season, and expected significant regression in 2013. After a hot start, I think we're starting to see it. The ageless Freddy Garcia will get the ball for the O's today, and that's not a good sign. Sweaty Freddy has a 5.51 ERA and is only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. He's just a stopgap filling in for injuries right now, so Baltimore would be happy to just get five innings from him each start. The Yankees offense has been surprising this season given all of their injury problems. Now they're starting to get guys back, and that's scary for the rest of the league as the Yankees are in first place at the moment. If this game should happen to come down to bullpens, the Yanks have an advantage there with Robertson and Rivera in the 8th and 9th. I like the Yanks to continue their hot start and get the win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-20-13 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants -138 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #962 San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals (10:15pm ET) It's been a tough year for San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong. At 1-4 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP he's been one of the worst pitchers in the National League. Manager Bruce Bochy has already hinted that this might be his last chance to save his job in the rotation. Vogelsong has never been a great pitcher, but has always gotten the job done and put up decent numbers over the course of his career. He's 35-years old, so he's obviously past his prime, but I think he can get it together and still be effective for the Giants. His peripheral numbers indicate an ERA in the mid-4's, so he is obviously experiencing some bad luck during this stretch. He's pitching at home today and that's where he's been most comfortable over the last few seasons. He'll face a Nationals lineup that hasn't been able to produce much this season. Washington is 13th in runs scored in the league and they're without Jayson Werth and maybe Bryce Harper today. Washington is just 3-6 in their last nine games and this will be their fourth different city in nine days. They're also going with reliever Zach Duke as their starting pitcher today to replace the injured Ross Detwiler. Duke has an 8.40 ERA in nine relief appearances this season and barely made the Washington roster to begin with. He's only pitched one complete season over the last four years, so he's obviously struggled to keep it together recently. I like Vogelsong to come up with a strong start today and get the win over the Nationals.
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05-19-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers -115 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm ET) It's the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week, and we have a good one. Derek Holland and the Texas Rangers host the Detroit Tigers in a battle between division leaders. Holland has really elevated his game in 2013, improving from a 4.67 ERA last season to a 2.93 ERA this season. He's done it by increasing his strikeout rate and significantly reducing his walk totals. Manager Ron Washington has pointed to Holland's enhanced work ethic as the reason for his success. Right now the confidence level for the 26-year old is at an all-time high and that will come in handy against a difficult Detroit lineup. The Tigers lead the American League in runs scored, but they don't have a lineup built to hit lefties very well. The Tigers have also had some trouble scoring runs in Arlington, especially in this series where they've averaged only 2.7 runs per game in the first three contests. The Rangers have averaged 6.0 runs in this series. Right-hander Doug Fister goes for the Tigers and he's as steady as they come, but hasn't been dominant in 2013. The Rangers lineup is not easy to navigate either and they've been swinging it well of late. In their last eight games, the Rangers have averaged 6.4 runs per game. This should be a fun game to watch, but I like Holland over Fister and the way that the Rangers are swinging the bats.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-17-13 | Kansas City Royals -113 v. Oakland A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #925 Kansas City Royals over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) Jarrod Parker hasn't been himself this season for the Oakland A's. He enters today's start at 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in eight starts. His biggest problem has been his control, as he's walking 4.9 batters per nine innings and his strikeout rate has declined from last season. He's battled some neck injuries, which obviously is affecting him more than he is leading on. Today he goes up against a Royals team that is swinging the bats pretty well lately. In their last series in Anaheim, the Royals scored 22 runs as they took two of three from the Angels. Kansas City will also have their ace James Shields on the mound today and he probably won't need very much run support. Shields is one of the best in the American League and comes in with a 2.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his first season with Kansas City. He's also great at going deep into games as he's averaging over seven innings per start. That makes it much easier for the Royals bullpen, which has some great arms at the backend. Until Parker shows that he's back to his form from last season, he's going to be on the fade list. With Shields going, you couldn't get a much bigger starting pitching edge for the Royals. Take Kansas City today as our 10-unit Game.
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05-14-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Toronto Blue Jays -129 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Toronto Blue Jays over San Francisco Giants (7:05pm ET) I don't think very highly of the Toronto Blue Jays at the moment, but they are certainly better than their 15-24 record indicates. I also don't like the way that today's start R.A. Dickey is pitching either, but he is much better than his 5.06 ERA indicates. In order to find value on a game, you have to look past the pure numbers and project ahead. With Dickey and the Jays, I think the betting markets have given up on them after continuously failing to meet expectations. We know this team has talent, so now is the time to jump aboard and take advantage of some great prices. Today's game at home versus the Giants presents such an opportunity. The Giants go with lefty Barry Zito today and that's good news for the Jays. Over the past few years, Zito has been horrendous on away from San Francisco. In fact, in 2013 Zito has a 0.55 ERA at home and a 14.21 ERA on the road. His numbers obviously aren't going to continue to be that extreme, but the point is clear - Zito really struggles away from the pitcher's ballpark that he is accustomed to. The Jays have a very tough lineup to navigate and I'd be surprised if Zito can get through more than five innings today. I like the Jays at home as a short favorite here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-13 | Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants +101 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 101 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 San Francisco Giants over Atlanta Braves (4:05pm ET) Tim Lincecum wasn't the same pitcher that we were accustomed to seeing last season. He struggled with a 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and his control was horrid. He showed up big in the postseason however, and many thought we'd see a return to form for the two-time Cy Young award winner. But he had a tough spring and then walked 11 batters in his first two outings in the regular season. But since then Lincecum has been very good. In his last five starts, the right-hander has a 34-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has slowly regained his confidence. He has still yielded some big innings, keeping his ERA higher than usual, but he's definitely on the right track. The opposite can be said of Atlanta Braves starter Kris Medlen. In the second half of 2012, Medlen was the hottest pitcher in all of baseball and the Braves had won 23 straight games in which he started. But in 2013 he's looked very ordinary on the mound. His strikeout rate is down 20% and his walks have nearly doubled from last season. What he did last season was simply not sustainable and his results this year are probably more in line with the skill set he owns. The Giants dominated the last two games against the Braves by a combined 18-3 score and will look to make it three of four in the series. They are 14-7 at home so far this season, which is more wins at home than anyone in baseball. It's hard to believe that they're underdogs in this one, so we'll take Lincecum and the Giants.
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05-11-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -101 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm ET) Despite what the records say, I think this Philadelphia Phillies team is a little bit better than the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their lineups are both very balanced and both teams have a couple of guys in the lineup that can take advantage of mistakes. In the bullpens, I like the Phillies options better as they have a dependable back end guy in Jonathan Papelbon. The D-backs are working with Heath Bell as the closer right now and that's not going to end well. As for the starting pitchers in today's game, the Phillies are better there as well. Cliff Lee is sort of a forgotten man and is still one of the best pitchers in the National League. He's 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and still has excellent control. Opposing Lee will be right-hander Trevor Cahill. I like what Cahill brings to the mound. He's a smart pitcher that doesn't make many mistakes and is about as consistent as they come. However, he rarely dominates a game and that might be what Arizona needs from him if Lee is on top of his game tonight. This will be a good game to watch, but I think the Phils come out on top in the end.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -127 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #918 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm ET) How long does it take before you can call the Toronto Blue Jays a bad baseball team? They have one of the most talented clubs in baseball, but have really scuffled since the season started and are now just 12-21. Most people around the game think the Jays will eventually snap out of it and be competitive, but I'm not so sure. They have been outscored by a whopping 46 runs this season in only 33 games. That's 29th in the majors, ahead of only the pathetic Houston Astros. Even the Marlins have played their opponents closer in overall run differential, and that says a lot. Toronto is struggling in every phase of the game and today they send one of their worst starting pitchers to the mound. Left-hander J.A. Happ doesn't deserve to be in a starting rotation for a team that expects to win. The 30-year old is walking 5.1 batters per nine innings and has a low 29% groundball rate. He's been lucky to manage a 3.98 ERA, but he's heading for some regression soon. In his last outing he walked seven batters in 3 2/3 innings and was lucky to only let two men cross the plate. The Rays are a patient team at the plate and will make Happ work for everything he gets. Don't be surprised if he has another short outing today. Roberto Hernandez pitches for the Rays and he's been really good for his new club in 2013 despite a high ERA. The right-hander is striking out nearly a batter per inning and is keeping the ball on the ground to the tune of a 52% rate. His numbers will improve as he starts to catch some breaks. The Rays offense has finally started clicking and should be able to give him some solid run support today versus Happ. Take Tampa Bay as our 10-unit Game today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-06-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks -106 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) It hasn't been pretty for the Los Angeles Dodgers so far this season, and this past weekend it got much worse. After a huge spending spree and several big name acquisitions, the Dodgers find themselves just a half game from the cellar in the National League West after getting swept by their rival the San Francisco Giants over the weekend. The offense has been the biggest problem, as they're 14th in the NL in runs scored. And they suffered another blow when Hanley Ramirez went back on the disabled list and Adrian Gonzalez has been nursing a bad neck recently. Today they'll try to halt a four-game losing streak with left-hander Chris Capuano. The 34-year old veteran is coming off the disabled list where he was with a calf injury for a couple of weeks. He made a rehab start, but he still may not be 100%. He'll face a gritty Arizona Diamondbacks team that comes in at 16-15 so far in 2013. Arizona is a deep team with a balanced lineup and should be able to give Capuano some problems. Trevor Cahill pitches for the D-Backs and he's about as reliable as it comes. He will never dominate a game, but he always gives his team a chance to win. With a struggling lineup facing him, he should be able to hold them to just a couple of runs. We'll take Arizona in this one as the Dodgers morale is at a season low.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +102 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 8-3 | Win | 102 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Tampa Bay Rays over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies play the rubber game of their three-game interleague series this afternoon in Coors Field. When you stack up the numbers between these two clubs, the Rockies look to have the upper hand on the surface. However, the season is young and what's more important is projecting the future and not looking too closely at the past due to a small sample size. This Rockies team has overachieved through the first month of the season. They have seven regulars batting over .300 and have scored 21 runs more than the next best team in the National League. Some of that has surely been aided by Coors Field, but even so they're playing above their normal abilities. Their team OPS is nearly 70 points higher than anyone else in the league and that's just not sustainable for a long season. We've already seen the Rockies start to stumble a bit lately. After a red hot 13-4 start, the Rockies are just 5-8 since and they haven't scored more than four runs in any of their losses. On the mound today for the Rockies will be Jhoulys Chacin. This will be his first start off the disabled list, which is always a tough situation the first time out. He'll go up against Alex Cobb of the Rays. Cobb is putting together a really nice season with a 2.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his five starts. He keeps the ball down, which will be big in Coors Field where the ball flies over the fence with ease at times. When you bet on the Rays, you always know that you're going to get a max effort and a team that plays the game the right way. They are always excellent on defense and they have the best manager in the game in Joe Maddon. Those intangibles are definitely worth something, and it's not always in the line. The line on this game should be closer to -140 for the Rays than even according to our model, so we are on Tampa for our 10-unit MLB Game of the Year!
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05-04-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -113 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (4:05pm ET) One of the National League's hottest starting pitcher takes the mound today for the St. Louis Cardinals. Adam Wainwright has been nothing short of amazing in the beginning of the 2013 campaign. He's 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts on the season. He's also only walked three batters in 44 1/3 innings of work, against 43 strikeouts. In addition, Wainwright has fared well against the hitters he'll see in today's Brewers lineup. The same can't be said for Milwaukee's starter Yovani Gallardo. No team has dominated him like the Cardinals have in his career. Earlier this season he yielded six runs in 5 1/3 innings in a loss at St. Louis. It hasn't been a good season for Gallardo overall as he's been up and down with a 4.25 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout rate is down from 9.0 batters per nine innings to only 5.0. And to top it all off, Gallardo was arrested for DUI a couple of weeks ago. These teams are very similar apart from the starting rotations. They both top notch offenses and bullpens that have been shaky in 2013. We like the Cardinals today for the huge edge in the starting pitchers.
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05-02-13 | BOS RED SOX -125 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 Boston Red Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Two teams heading in opposite directions square off today in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 10-18 and fading fast after big expectations were placed on them to begin the season. Nearly everyone is their entire lineup is struggling at the same time, and that's just the way it goes sometimes. Hitting can be infectious and it goes both ways. For the Red Sox, it's going the right way as they are one of the hottest hitting teams in the league right now. They come in 2nd in the American League in runs scored and their best hitter David Ortiz is on a rampage since returning from the disabled list. Big Papi is hitting .487 with three home runs and 15 RBIs in just 10 games since his return. The Red Sox will also send a red hot pitcher to the mound in Ryan Dempster. The veteran right-hander has a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his five starts. More impressive is his strikeout rate of 12.9 batters per nine innings, which is well above his career mark. With the way the Jays are struggling right now, it's hard to envision them scraping together too many runs against him. J.A. Happ will be tasked with the job of holding Boston at bay, and that won't be easy for the southpaw. He's a fringe starter who doesn't have great stuff and has had trouble keeping a spot in the rotation throughout his career. All signs point to a Red Sox victory here today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-30-13 | Los Angeles Angels +105 v. Oakland A's | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) After a marathon game last night that went 19 innings, the Angels and A's are back at it again tonight in Oakland. The bullpens were taxed to the maximum in yesterday's game, so the starting pitchers are extremely important today. And when you look at it from that angle, the Angels have a big advantage today. Jarrod Parker of the A's hasn't been himself in 2013. At 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.14 WHIP, the young right-hander is in danger of losing his job in the rotation. It was just a year ago that Parker was amazing as a rookie. My guess is that he has some kind of injury going on, but it could be all mental at this point as well. Whatever the case, he's really struggling and not the kind of guy you want to count on to get you six or seven innings when you really need it. The Angels' Garrett Richards has put together a nice season so far early on. He started out in the bullpen but was moved to the rotation because of injuries. He comes in with a 3.65 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings and has really improved his control this season. He's walking about 50% less batters than in 2012 and also inducing about 10% more groundballs. With that kind of improvement, he'll likely be holding onto a spot in the rotation for quite a while. Los Angeles is going to ask him to pitch deep into the game today and I think he will be up to the task. Take the Angels today.
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04-28-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -140 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (4:05pm ET) The Oakland A's and Baltimore Orioles were the two biggest surprises in baseball last year. This year they're not sneaking up on anyone, but they both have still managed to stay above .500. But the A's have another surprise up their sleeves for 2013 and it's been Bartolo Colon so far. The 39-year old right-hander is pitching like a Cy Young candidate at 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's also walked only one batter in 26 innings of work thus far! With control that good in pitcher's ballpark in Oakland, Colon can continue to have great success. His counterpart Miguel Gonzalez has put up good numbers this season and last season, but his peripherals haven't been as good as his ERA. He's due for some regression and I wouldn't be surprised if a strong hitting Oakland lineup jumps all over him. The A's lead the entire MLB in runs scored and that is really impressive considering where they play their home games. They've been struggling a bit lately, but that allows us to get a lower price here today. Take the A's.
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04-27-13 | Chicago Cubs -128 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) The Chicago Cubs go for a third straight win in Miami as they take on the Marlins on Saturday night. And when the Cubs are beating up on you, you know your team is bad. Things have gotten pretty ugly for the Marlins organization in recent days. Owner Jeffrey Loria ruffled some feathers in the clubhouse when he dictated the pitching rotation for a doubleheader in Minnesota earlier in the week. The players didn't like it and it may have gotten under the skin of a team that was already struggling to begin with. The Cubs have an edge in the pitching matchup today as southpaw Travis Wood takes on youngster Alex Sanabia. The Marlins really struggle with lefties and Wood is pitching pretty well right now. Sanabia is only 24-years old and has a lot to learn at the big league level. I question if he's ready to pitch in the majors and I doubt if he'd be up here if he was on any other team. The Cubs should take advantage as they have a few good hitters in their lineup that have been swinging the bat well. Take the Cubs in this spot today.
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04-21-13 | Minnesota: S Diamond v. Chicago (A): G Floyd -138 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #924 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm ET) The Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins in the second game of a rain-shortened two-game set today. Both teams have had trouble scoring runs this season as the White Sox are 12th in runs and the Twins 15th in the American League. These teams have been led more by their pitching in 2013, which is a bit surprising given the rosters. Today's starters Gavin Floyd and Scott Diamond are both reliable middle of the rotation guys that give you good innings. I like Floyd better though as he's been pretty consistent in getting AL hitters out over the last few seasons. This is only Diamond's second full season and although he put up some good numbers as a rookie, it's always tougher to face the league for the second time around so he may be in store for a sophomore slump. The main reason I like the White Sox today though is their superb bullpen. They are tops in the league with a 1.74 ERA this season and have several great options to turn to in the late innings. Minnesota has put up good numbers in the pen too, but their guys aren't quite as proven and I'd be surprised if they're still this good at season's end. Chicago is the better ballclub and should grind out a victory today at home versus the Twins.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-19-13 | Atlanta Braves -121 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm ET) The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in baseball with a record of 13-2 on the season. They've mashed the ball offensively, leading the league with 29 home runs with Justin Upton amassing nine of them. Last night they tattooed opposing Pirate pitchers for four dingers. They definitely take their cuts at the plate so you'll probably see lots of hot offensive stretches with this team throughout the season. When they're making contact, they will bludgeon people. When they don't, they will struggle to score runs. I generally like staying away from team's that everyone knows is playing well, but I think they have a chance to do some serious damage to today's starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez. The left-hander has been struggling with a hamstring injury and skipped his last turn in the rotation. He wasn't very effective in his two starts before that so there's no telling how good Wandy will be on the mound today and how many innings he can give them. For the Braves it will be the dependable Tim Hudson. The 37-year old is no longer dominant but he keeps this team in the game nearly every time out. With the way the Braves are swinging the bats, he should have no problem picking up a win today. Go Braves!
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04-18-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -110 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm ET) We have what looks like it could be a great pitcher's duel between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies. Based on the names alone, Adam Wainwright versus Cole Hamels certainly feels like a prime time matchup. But a closer look reveals that it could be a big mismatch. Adam Wainwright has been spectacular in his three starts in 2013 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with a terrific 24-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It doesn't get much better than that, but the same can't be said for Hamels. The left-hander hasn't won a game in his three starts with a 7.56 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. His control has been awful as Hamels is walking twice as many batters as his normal rate. There hasn't been any talk about mechanical issues or an injury, but something clearly isn't right with Hamels right now. It could be that he's not throwing to him normal catcher Carlos Ruiz, who is still suspended from last year. With the way Wainwright is throwing, the Phillies aren't going to be able to get too many runs today - especially since they've been swinging the bats poorly. That puts even more pressure on a struggling Hamels and I think this one could get ugly as a result. Take the Cardinals today at a very small price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-15-13 | Chicago (A): G Floyd +125 v. Toronto: M Buehrle | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Chicago White Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Mark Buehrle goes up against his former team as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Chicago White Sox tonight. Buehrle has had a really tough time in his first couple of starts with the Jays, getting torched in both of his outings against the Indians and Tigers. The White Sox also have a lineup that does well against left-handers, which will make it even tougher on the veteran. The Jays are in some trouble right now and are feeling the pressure at 5-7 to begin the season. Expectations were really high for this club after all of the acquisitions they made in the offseason. But they've had some tough breaks losing Brett Lawrie to injury in the spring and now Jose Reyes, who could miss as much as three months. Those are two key pieces to this Toronto lineup and they don't have the depth to compensate for it. The White Sox send out one of the more dependable starters in the league in Gavin Floyd. He hasn't had a great start to the 2013 campaign, but his 5.56 ERA is deceiving because he's actually had a really nice K/BB ratio and is inducing more groundballs than ever. That tells me that he's pitching well and just not catching that many breaks. He's the better starting pitcher today and I like the White Sox to win this one behind him.
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04-10-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -135 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Boston Red Sox over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm ET) We've been riding the Boston Red Sox pretty hard this season and are 3-for-3 so far. I still think that the betting markets are underrating just how much this team has improved over last year when they won only 69 games. There bullpen is definitely better after making some key additions in the offseason, and adding Ryan Dempster in the starting rotation is a plus as well. Dempster is a gamer who always puts up better numbers than what his stuff looks like in person. Anyone who can win more games than he loses pitching for the Cubs definitely has my respect. Today he'll go up against the Jake Arrieta and the Baltimore Orioles. Arrieta is a young up-and-coming pitcher that has good stuff, but he still has a lot to learn at the big league level. In 24 games last season he posted a 6.20 ERA and had a propensity for giving up the long ball. He certainly has better stuff than his ERA indicates, but he's still a below average pitcher at the moment and is a guy that a balanced Red Sox lineup should take advantage of. I think the Orioles are also getting a little too much credit as a team based on what they did last year. They're going to struggle to win anywhere near the 93 games they won in 2012, and I'm projecting them for the basement in the AL East. Take the Red Sox at home at a good price that you won't see for long.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-09-13 | New York (A): A Pettitte -125 v. Cleveland: C Carrasco | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) The New York Yankees are a beleaguered squad right now with half of their everyday lineup on the disabled list and very few good options on the bench to plug in. However, if there's a team out there that can face the pressure of having to perform without all of their weapons, it's the Yankees. This is where playing in New York actually works to your advantage. No one is expecting much from this team right now and they have the chance to prove everyone wrong. They have a guy on the mound that knows something about winning under desperate circumstances and that's Andy Pettitte. The 40-year old left-hander can still pitch as he posted some of his best numbers in half a season last year. He was sharp in his 2013 debut and he still has good enough stuff to win close to 20 games if he stays healthy. He'll get a Cleveland Indians lineup full of left-handed bats, which should make it even easier on him in this one. I like what the Indians did in the offseason, but they are going to have a tough time of it today. Their starter Carlos Carrasco is making his first start in two seasons after he had Tommy John surgery. He looked pretty good in the spring but you can expect plenty of nerves today as he hasn't pitched since September 2011. The Yankees offense isn't spectacular with all of the injuries, but they showed that they can still mash scoring 11 runs against Cleveland yesterday. I like the Yankees to beat up on the Tribe again today.
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