Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 111 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cincy/KC UNDER the total. I thought this O/U line might rise from its opening number. It has. While I'm not surprised by that move, I feel that its adding value to what was already a generously high number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. I lost with the Chiefs 'under' in their win over the Bills. The final score would suggest that was a terrible play. Though a loss is a loss, I don't feel that was the case though. The reality was that if the Bills didn't convert a 4th and long late in the game, the final score stays below the total. The majority of the scoring drives were very time consuming, as I had anticipated. Even with them ending in TD's instead of FG's, the score was still reasonable until the final couple of minutes. With that crazy Bills/Chiefs game fresh in their minds and also the high-scoring Week 17 game between these teams, many will be expecting another shootout on Sunday. That sentiment is helping to drive the number up. While we won't know until later in the week if the Chiefs will have safety Mathieu (concussion protocol) back, the hope is that he will be able to return. Reid noted that he felt good. Needless to say, the Chiefs missed him against the Bills. If he didn't take an accidental knee to the head early in that game, things likely would have played out differently. While all the talk about the Bengals revolves around their explosive offense, they just beat the Titans 19-16. That's three straight games that have finished with 45 or fewer combined points. While the reg. season game at Cincy was high-scoring, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five meetings here at KC. The UNDER is also now 6-0 the Bengals' last six playoff games. Expect those stats to improve on Sunday afternoon. |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 131 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER the total. Both these teams saw their WC games go 'over' the total. Both offenses certainly looked impressive. Many will also recall that the last two meetings between these teams, one this past October and one last January, were also high-scoring. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they've helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Yes, the offenses are potent. However, let's not forget that the Bills also have the best defense in football. They allow the fewest number of points per game and they also allow the fewest yards per game and per play. In terms of points allowed per game, the Chiefs are a top #10 defense. They're a different team now than they were when they faced the Bills last season, or even earlier this season. The gameplan wasn't working early on so Reid and co. changed things up. They started taking what the opposing defense gave them and having much longer scoring drives. It should also be mentioned that the Chiefs have been particularly stingy at home. Since the Bills beat them here in October, the Chiefs have played seven home games. They allowed 21, 10, 9, 9, 9, 7 and 17 points. That's an average of less than 12 ppg allowed, over the past seven games here. While many will be expecting a shootout, I say that the defense/s rises to the occasion and that the final combined score stays below the generously high total. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 157 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/LA UNDER the total. Both regular season meetings finished above the total. Likewise, both teams saw last week's game finish above the number. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they're helping to provide us with an extra high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Prior to the game against Seattle, the Cards had seen three straight games fall below the total. They scored 12, 16 and 25 points. Its not a coincidence that the offense started struggling right after Hopkins went down. As of this writing, as per ESPN's Adam Schefter, he "could be back for the NFC Championship but it would be unrealistic for him to return any sooner." (Even if he somehow did manage to return, its hard to imagine him being 100%.) Having lost that game against the Hawks, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that Arizona failed to cover its previous game. Note that the Cards run the ball more regularly than many realize. They rank #7th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. They'll be doing everything they can to establish the run to help keep their hosts' offense off the field. The Rams (27-24) game against the 49'ers went to OT. That marked the fifth straight time that they've scored 30 or less. Having allowed Garoppolo to throw for 314 yards, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that the Rams had allowed their previous opponent to gain 250 or more yards through the air. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/Dallas UNDER the total. Cowboys/49'ers facing each other in the playoffs. Feels like old times. While the 49'ers got down and were forced to throw for a lot of yards in their Week 18 game vs. the Rams, this is a SF team which likes to establish the run. Arguably, the 49'ers' season turned around in a game (31-10 win over LA) where they ran the ball, over and over. In fact, both teams are in the top half of the NFL, when it comes to how often they like to run the ball. The 49'ers rank fifth in the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. The Cowboys rank #12th. They're #7 and #9, respectively, in terms of rushing yards per game. So, we've got a pair of teams which are going to run the ball regularly. That will help to keep this clock moving. As for the Rams game, it finished with 48 points in regulation; the winning field goal came in OT. Also, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that SF had accumulated 250 or more passing yards, in its previous game. Prior to the LA game, the 49'ers had been involved in four straight games which stayed below the total. Scores were 30, 37, 44 and 49. (The 49-point game saw nine points scored in OT.) The Cowboys defense is better than advertised. Even after last week's game got crazy, they've still held six of their last nine opponents to 20 or fewer points. Two of those teams got less than seven. Not surprisingly, six of the Cowboys' past 10 games have stayed below the total. Look for this one to do the same. |
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01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44 | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on NE/Buffalo UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in football. Arguably, the two very best. With all due respect to the offenses, this line could easily be lower. NE allows 17.8 ppg. Buffalo allows 17 ppg. Those are the #1 and #2 marks in the NFL. In terms of yards allowed, Buffalo ranks #1, at just 272.8 ypg allowed, and NE ranks #3. Both teams rank in the top half of the league (#8 and #13) in terms of rushing attempts per game, too. So, we're going to have a lot of running the ball to keep the clock moving. During the regular season, the game at NE was high-scoring but the game here at Buffalo was not. Four of the past five meetings in Buffalo have fallen below the total. Expect this one to do the same. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 97 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Denver UNDER the total. The Chiefs are off a high-scoring game with the Bengals and have been on an 'over' streak. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high total for Saturday afternoon's game, at Denver. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Chiefs know they can score; the offense is in good shape, entering the playoffs. They'd like their defense to have some momentum/confidence though and Denver figures to be the perfect opponent for that. The Broncos have real trouble scoring, regardless of who's behind center. (With Bridgewater out and Lock getting hurt last week, they're likely down to Rypien.) They've failed to score more than 13 points in any of their past three games. While the Bengals lit them up, the Chiefs have still held three of their past five opponents to 10 points or less and six of their past eight opponents to 14 or less. Though they may have nothing to play for, the Broncos are still going to play hard defensively. They don't want to get blown out in front of the home fans. The UNDER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that Denver allowed 30 or more points in its previous game. The last time they allowed 30 or more, the Broncos responded by holding the Chargers to 13 points in their next game. After they gave up 34 to those same Chargers last week, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 41.5 | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev/Pittsburgh OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 43. We're working with a lower O/U number on Monday night. In what could be Rothlisberger's last game here, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Browns offense, much healthier than its been in recent games, will be happy to go up against a struggling Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers gave up 36 points last game. That's two of their last three games where they gave up 36. Eight of their past 12 games have produced a minimum of 43 points. Big Ben and co. are fortunate to face a Cleveland defense missing both of its starting safeties. The last time that these teams played here was last January. The O/U line was in the 40s, yet they combined for 85 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improving to 5-0 the past five times that the Steelers allowed more than 350 yards in their previous game. |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Washington UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' when these teams met a couple of weeks ago. That O/U line was considerably lower than this one though. I feel that this afternoon's higher line is providing excellent value. Washington is much healthier than it was for the 12/21 game. That's on both sides of the ball though. Washington was fortunate to get off to an early lead in the first game and that forced Philadelphia to score to come back. Even with a healthier offense, I expect the Football Team to have trouble scoring against a determined Eagles defense, which is playing its best football. The Eagles have allowed 10, 17, 18 and 13 points, their past four games. Again, Washington was "fortunate" to even get 17. The Eagles have quietly moved into the #1 spot (taking the lead from the Titans) in terms of rushing attempts, per game. They're now running the ball 32.3 times per game. (Washington ranks #12 in that category.) Of course, frequent running plays keep the clock moving. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 4-0 the past four times that they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards in their previous game. The Football Team, for its part, has seen the UNDER go 5-0 the past five times that it scored 15 or fewer points, the previous game. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Dallas UNDER the total. The Cowboys have quietly started playing very good defense. They allowed just six points last game and have allowed an average of only 13, their past three games. Washington managed only 237 yards last game. While Heinecke is expected to return, the Football Team is still missing a lot. The Cowboys had a 24-0 lead in the last game. Washington benefitted from a pick-six in coming back to make the final score (27-20) respectable. The Cowboys are going to be careful not to cough up the lead in this one. I expect a heavy dose of the run. Likewise, Washington knows its best hope is to try and keep the Dallas offense off the field. The Football Team, too, should be generous with its share of running plays. Note that both teams rank in the top 10, (they're #9 and #10) in terms of rushing attempts per game. Off last week's 44-point game, Washington has seen nine straight games finish with 48 or fewer points. Dallas, meanwhile, has seen its last three games produce 27, 47 and 44. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than some will be expecting. |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5 | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/Arizona UNDER the total. While I respect both these offenses, I feel that the O/U number is generously high. These teams both like to run the ball a lot. With Taylor running away with the rushing title, it's not surprising that the Colts rank second in rushing yards and 4th in the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Some might be surprised to learn that the Cards are right behind them. They rank #5, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Of course, with both teams running the ball with regularity, the clock is more likely to keep moving. Both defenses are very capable, too. Both rank in the top 10 in terms of points allowed The Colts held the Pats to 17 points last week. In their previous game, they blanked the Jags. The Cards haven't been happy with their defensive effort lately. However, they still rank #5 in terms of points allowed per game and #7 in terms of rushing yards per game. It should also be noted that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Cards were off a loss. Look for those numbers to improve as this one ends up lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/Ten UNDER the total. The Titans' offense has really missed Henry. Of course, they're also very banged-up at the receiver position. Either way, Tennessee has scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games, 13 or less in three of those. After scoring 24 or more points in eight straight games, they've scored less than 24 in five straight. During that span, the defense has stepped up. The Titans have allowed just 19 combined points the past two games and 22 or fewer points in five of their last six. Even without Henry, they're going to run the ball frequently. In fact, they still run the ball more times per game than any team in the league. The 49ers are also going to run with regularlity. They rank seventh in terms of rushing attempts (and rushing yards) per game. That'll keep the clock moving. Both the 49ers and the Titans are tough to run against though. So, they'll be running but the yards won't be coming easily. The 49'ers allowed just 13 points last game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles OVER 41.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Philadelphia OVER the total. It still remains to be seen who Washington's QB will be. These are certainly strange times. Regardless who starts at QB, don't expect "Riverboat Ron" to play things much differently. Weather can be an issue at this time of year. However, it shouldn't be a factor. It'll be cold. However, there won't be wind. Neither offense has been slowed down too much, of late. The Eagles scored 33 in their last game. They've scored at least 30 in three of their past four and at least 21 points in 10 of their last 11. Washington scored 20 last time out and has scored at least 17 in five straight. Three of the past four meetings have finished with at least 44 points and the OVER is 5-2 the last seven times that Washington played here. More of the same on Tuesday night. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Minnesota OVER the total. I've had success with the 'over' with both these teams recently and I feel that this number will again prove to be too low. The Vikings score a lot of points. They also give up a lot. They average 26.5 ppg and allow 25.6 ppg. They've played even higher-scoring games lately. Each of their last six games has finished with at least 47 combined points. Those games had scores of 64, 56, 60, 65, 47 and 65. Ten of their 13 games have produced at least 47 points. Yet, due to the fact that they're playing the Bears, the O/U line is still relatively low. However, the Bears aren't as stingy as they've been in the past. They're allowing 25.5 ppg. Last week, they allowed 45 points. They scored 31 though. That 75-point affair was preceded by a 55-point game. The most recent meeting between these teams was exactly one year ago, to the day. That 12/20/20 game saw consistent scoring throughout each quarter (both teams scored in all four quarters) and finished with 60 combined points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 45 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/TB OVER the total. The Saints offense got back on track last week. They scored 30 points en route to a dominating performance. The offense will carry the confidence gained into this evening's game. It helps that they'll face a Tampa defense which is banged-up in the secondary. Remember, they scored 36 in the earlier game against the Bucs. The Saints permitted only 78 yards on the ground and just 256 overall, last week. However, it's worth mentioning that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that NO had allowed less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game. They're obviously up against a far more formidable offense here. The champs have scored 30 or more in four straight games. In fact, they average 31.5 ppg, which is #1 in the league. At home, that number climbs to a whopping 37.5 ppg. They've scored 30 or more in every game here, going over the 40 mark more than once. It's true that Coach Payton will not be on the sidelines and that a defensive coordinator will be calling the shots. They're not going to do anything differently though. This season's earlier meeting saw 63 points scored; three of the past four meetings have produced at least 47 combined points. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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12-19-21 | Cardinals v. Lions UNDER 47.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Detroit UNDER the total. I've won with both of these teams to go 'over' recently. I won with the Lions 'over' in their game against the Vikings two weeks ago and the Cards 'over' in their game against the Bears, in the same week. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair in this one though. While they did have success moving the ball against the Vikings, the Lions were back to their old ways on offense last week. They managed only 10 points. They've scored fewer than 20 points in 10 of their last 11 games. Throw out the Minnesota game (Arizona is a lot stingier than Minnesota) and they've scored an average of only 11 points, over their past five. Taking Hopkins out of the offense makes Arizona less dangerous. While the Lions failed to cover last week, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that they were off an ATS loss. It should also be mentioned that the UNDER is 6-1-1 (or 7-1) the past eight times that Arizona was listed as a road favorite. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on NE/Indy UNDER the total. The Colts and Patriots met nine times from 2009 to 2018. Every single game finished 'over' the total. Each finished with more than 50 points. That's all "ancient history" though; this game is going to be different. It'll feature a heavy dose of the run and two stingy defenses. The Patriots held the Bills to a mere 10 points last week. They've been playing dominant defense. Over the past five games, they've allowed a combined 36 points, an average of just seven per game. Not surprisingly, they rank #1 in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. The Colts have shown that they can also be very stingy. They didn't allow a single point last week. While that was against a weak Houston team, a shutout is still impressive. They're top 10 in the league (9th) in terms of points allowed per game. Both teams also rank in the top 10, in terms of rushing attempts per game. The Colts are 5th and the Pats are 7th. Naturally, frequent running plays will keep the clock moving. Look for the UNDER to improve to 5-0 the past five times that the Pats played a road game in December. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LA OVER the total. This season's first meeting had an O/U line of 55. We're working with a lower O/U number here. I feel that i'll prove to be too low. Neither offense is going be easy to stop. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week. In their last road game, they scored 41. While the KC defense has been tough recently, it should be noted that the Chiefs are missing a few important players on that side of the ball. They'll face a Chargers team which scored 37 points last week, after scoring 41 in their previous game. They've scored 37, 41, 20, 24, 47 and 28 points their last six games here. This season's first meeting produced 54 points. It's worth noting that the "rematch" (second game) has been higher-scoring, by at least 10 points, when these teams have played, each of the past two seasons. Last year's second game produced 59 points. |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 51.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on the UNDER for the 1st Half. Despite having a low O/U line, last night's game saw 48 points scored by halftime and 75 overall. That was fine by me, as I had a play on the 'over.' Tonight, however, I'm expecting a much different start. Importantly, we're also working with a much higher O/U number than we were last night. The Rams are loaded on defense; they allowed just seven points last week. The Cardinals have even better defensive numbers than LA. They're allowing only 18.6 ppg on the season. That's the fourth best mark in the league. With a final score of 37-20, this season's first meeting was fairly high-scoring. That was also the case with last year's first meeting; it had a final score of 38-28. However, the second meeting was an entirely different story. It had a final score of only 18-7. It should be noted that game ended up a battle of backup QB's, as Goff was out and Murray got hurt. All the same, I'm still expecting tonight's "rematch" to again be lower-scoring. Though I also like the 'under' for the full game, these teams are capable of some late game fireworks and therefore I prefer the first half option. Recall last year's game here, almost exactly one year ago. That Dec 6th game had a modest 21 points in the first half but the teams combined for 45 in the second half. Expect another relatively slow start, the final score for the first half, staying below the number. |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers OVER 43 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing Chicago/GB OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Last weekend, we saw a very windy game between the Bills and Patriots. While it's always a bit chilly at Lambeau in December, there won't be big winds like we saw in that game. I expect the offenses to have success. Last week, the Bears combined with Arizona for 55 points. They gave up 33 of those as their defense continues to rank near the bottom of the pack, in terms of points allowed. Meanwhile, the Packers are off b2b games which finished in the mid-60's. Last season's meeting here had an O/U line of 44. The teams combined for 66 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Pittsburgh OVER the total. I've done a pretty good job of recognizing when Pittsburgh's O/U lines are too low. For a game against the Vikings, I believe that'll prove to be the case this evening. The Steelers saw their first four games of the season stay below the total. I recognized that those results led to some really O/U numbers. Since that time, I've played on four Steeler totals, all of them 'overs,' going 4-0. Overall, five of their last eight games have finished above the number. I also played on the Vikings 'over' in their loss against Detroit last week. Here's a small excerpt of what I said: "...The Viking offense is tough to stop. The Vikes have scored 26 or more in four straight games. The defense is far from dominant though. The Vikings allow more than 25 ppg ..." Sure enough, the Vikes scored 27 but allowed 29. Their games are averaging 51.1 ppg on the season. Off that upset loss, note that the OVER is 7-1 the past eight times that the Vikings were off an ATS loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/NO UNDER the total. It wasn't a very happy Thanksgiving for either of these teams. Not for me either, for that matter. I expect both to improve defensively in this one. Prior to getting lit up by the Raiders, the Cowboys were off b2b strong defensive games. The last time that they allowed 30 or more points, they followed it up by allowing just three in their next game. Three of the Cowboys' last four road games, including each of the past two, have been low-scoring. The Saints managed just six points last week. It was the third time that they've scored less than 14 points this season. The defense remains relatively respectable though. They're allowing 22.6 ppg. That's 12th best in the NFL. (The Cowboys are right behind them at #13.) Factoring in last week's result, note that the UNDER is now 9-1-1 the last 11 times that the Saints played on a Thursday. Also, off last week's "aerial showdown," note that the UNDER is a profitable 7-1 the past eight times that Dallas had thrown for more than 250 yards in its previous game. These teams met in both 2018 and 2019. The O/U lines were 47 and 51.5. The scores were 12-10 and 13-10. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washingon/Seattle OVER the total. Last night's game was low-scoring but there should be plenty of points on primetime tonight. Heinecke's confidence is growing and the Washington offense has come alive of late. Despite facing a pair of fairly stingy teams (TB and Carolina) the Football Team has scored 27 and 29 points, its past two games. After scoring 31 points on Halloween, the Seattle offense has stalled in two November games. Those results have worked in our favor, helping to keep this O/U line a little lower than it otherwise would have been. While it's true that the Hawks are dealing with some injuries along the line, tonight offers an excellent opportunity for Wilson to "get healthy." Washington allows 26.7 ppg, the fifth worst mark in the league. The Football Team also ranks fifth worst, in terms of yards per play. Wilson still has plenty of pride; he's been one of the best in the world for years. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improve |
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers OVER 47 | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 109 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/LA OVER total. I won with the 'over' in the Steelers MNF game a couple of weeks ago. I thought that O/U line was too low and that proved to be the case. They're back on primetime tonight and I feel the same way about the total. Its true that the Steelers have been involved in some low-scoring games, the MNF game notwithstanding. A date with the Chargers will change that. The Chargers have seen three straight games finish with 47 or more points. Two of those finished above the 50 mark. Their last three home games had combined scores of 47, 51 and 89. It should also be mentioned that the Chargers are off their fourth loss of the season. The OVER is 2-1 after their previous three losses but all three of those games finished with greater than 50 points. With both defenses missing some key players, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. This is a fairly high total. It's nearly as high as last night's O/U line between the Chiefs and the Raiders. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. I'll make the comparison to the SNF again. The Chiefs and Raiders had seen their two 2020 games produce 66 and 72 points. Two very high-scoring games. On the other hand, the Rams and 49'ers saw their two 2020 games produce 43 and 40 points. The Rams managed only 16 points in losing their last game. Prior to giving up 28 in that game, they'd allowed 22 or fewer points in four straight games, an average of just 17. As for the 28 points allowed against the Titans, a closer look reveals that LA actually held the Titans to a mere 194 total yards, 125 through the air and 69 on the ground. Stafford threw two INTs, one which was taken back for a TD. In other words, the defense still played well. The 49'ers, meanwhile, have scored 21 or fewer points in four of their last five. In their last two home games, they managed 17 and 18 points. I see them having trouble scoring again tonight. The UNDER is 8-1 the past nine times that the Rams allowed less than 250 yards in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LV OVER the total. With the Raiders off a low-scoring game and the Chiefs off a few low-scoring games, we're working with a relatively low O/U number on Sunday night. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that the last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 56.5. Yet, that wasn't nearly enough. The teams combined for 66. The previous meeting was even higher-scoring. The O/U line was 54.5 and the teams combined for 72. The Chiefs are small favorites. That's noteworthy as the OVER is 10-0 the last 10 times that the Raiders were home underdogs. The only time that the Raiders were home underdogs this season, they combined with the Raiders for 60 points. Expect the offenses to come back to life and another high-scoring affair. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Miami UNDER the total. A look at the last 10 meetings between these teams shows that this O/U line is higher than the O/U lines for any of those games. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Ravens run the ball 32.4 times per game. That's more than any team in the league. All those running plays tend to keep the clock moving. The Ravens last four games have been at home. They're finally back on the road for this one though. Their last two road games had scores of 23-7 and 19-17. Overall, their road games are averaging 42 points. That's significantly less than their home games. Miami, meanwhile, has seen its home games average 40.8 points on the season. The Dolphins last two games had scores of 17-9 and 26-11. While the Ravens are off a high-scoring game, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off a game where they scored more than 30 points. Look for those stats to improve Thursday night. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 38.5 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Pittsburgh OVER the total. This O/U line is lower than any of the O/U lines on the entire Sunday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. We tend to think of the Bears as a strong defensive team. However, the defense has hardly been dominant of late. Chicago allowed 33 points last game and 38 points the previous week. After allowing 408 yards two weeks ago, last week, the Bears allowed a total of 467 yards. While the Steelers are off a low-scoring game at Cleveland, their last two home games finished with combined scores of 43 and 46. While b2b Chicago games have finished above the 40 point mark, the Steelers have seen three of four finish with more than 40. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Jets/Colts UNDER the total. Both these teams are off high-scoring games. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to too high. The Colts got into a shootout with the Titans. That's been happening with a lot of recent Tennessee games though. The Colts held their previous two opponents to 18 and 3 points. They have the 12th most rushing attempts per game in the league and they'd love to pound away on the ground in this one. That'll help to chew up the clock. While I was thrilled that they came through for me last week, the Jets are still only averaging 16.3 ppg. That number dips to 11.8 ppg when they're on the road. They managed only seven points in a game here last season. With the Jets winless on the road, note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Colts hosted a team with a losing road record. Look for those stats to improve and for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver/Clev. UNDER the total. You probably have heard that Mayfield is out and Keenum is in. While the veteran backup is capable, he hasn't started in some time and some of his weapons are banged-up. The Browns scored only 14 points last week; the second time in three games that they managed just 14 points. Denver has its own issues though. The Broncos have averaged less than 17 ppg their past three games. On the other side of the ball, at 18.3, Denver ranks #4 in terms of points allowed per game. The Broncos also rank #4 in terms of yards allowed per game. Last week notwithstanding, this is still a stingy Cleveland defense. In fact, the Browns are still #2 in the entire league, in terms of yards allowed per game. Only Buffalo allows less. While the Broncos gave up 34 points last week, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they allowed 30 or more, in their previous game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Tennessee UNDER the total. Both these teams like to run the ball a lot. In fact, they both rank in the top 5, in terms of rushing attempts per game. (The Titans are #2 and the Bills are #4.) We can expect a heavy dose of the run on Monday night, which will help to keep the clock moving. The Bills have indeed been very good on offense. However, they've also been excellent on defense. They went on the road and held the Chiefs to 20 points last game. Before that, they blanked Houston, which was their second shutout in three games. Their 12.8 ppg allowed is #1 in the NFL. Likewise, their 251.8 yards allowed per game ranks #1. They allow just 4.5 yards per play, also #1. As for the Titans, they allowed just 19 points last game and only 16 in their last home game. While last year's game was high-scoring, the previous three meetings all finished with 27 or fewer combined points. With frequent running plays helping to keep the clock moving, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 42 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Seattle OVER the total. With Wilson out, we're working with a very low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Despite facing a Denver defense which came in playing well, Rothlisberger got going a bit last week. He'd finish with 253 passing yards (2 TD's, 0 INT's) and a season-high 120.9 passer rating. Now, he faces a Seattle defense which allows 10 extra points a game than does Denver. (Broncos allow 15.2 ppg. Seahawks allow 25.2 ppg.) In fact, while the Broncos rank #3 in terms of total yards allowed per game, the Hawks rank last in the entire NFL in that category. They're giving up a whopping 450.8 ypg. Note that Big Ben has 30 TDs (12 INTS) in 12 SNF starts. Prior to his interception at the end, Geno Smith actually looked really good for Seattle. He's a veteran who knows that this is his chance to show people that he's better than they realize. Pete Carroll won't stop being aggressive. The last meeting between these teams had 54 points. The last one here in Seattle had 69. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles UNDER 53 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 74 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tampa/Philadelphia UNDER the total. The Eagles are off a strong defensive game. They held Carolina to 267 yards and 18 points. Their only previous home game vs. an NFC opponent (SF) finished with a score of 17-11. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 10-2 the past 12 times that the Eagles hosted an NFC team. Eleven of those 12 games finished with 45 or fewer combined points. While the Bucs offense is obviously explosive, Brady has a banged-up thumb and Gronk remains out. Brady will play but potentially could be slightly less effective than normal. Note that the Bucs have scored only 19 and 24 points in their two road games. Their home scores have been much higher. Their last road game had a final score of 19-17. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 56.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER for the first half. Naturally, I respect both offenses. However, I feel the same way about the defenses. The Bills defense is playing very well right now. Last week, they shut down Houston. That's the second time in three games that they shut out an opponent. Their 11 ppg allowed is #1 in the entire NFL. Also, their 216.8 ypg allowed is #1, by a lot. The Bills held the Chiefs scoreless in the first quarter of the playoff games before Mahomes and co. got going. The regular season meeting was also fairly low-scoring out of the gate. They had only 23 at halftime. The Chiefs last home game finished with 54 points. However, they had 0 after the first quarter and just 17 at halftime. Look for this one to also get off to a lower-scoring start than many will be expecting. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/Arizona UNDER the total. Though they will claim otherwise, with Trey Lance making his first start, the 49'ers are likely going to be slightly more conservative than normal. Not having their normally reliable tight-end (Kittle) is a blow. He already had 19 receptions this season and would have been a nice option for the rookie to have. With the offense likely less than 100%, the SF defense knows it needs to elevate its level of play. Yes, the Arizona offense is explosive. Remember, the 49'ers held the Eagles to 11 points the last time that they were on the road. While they lost last week, they actually held the Seahawks to 234 total yards. They currently rank in the Top 10 in the league, in terms of yards allowed per game. While the Arizona offense gets most of the headlines, the Cards rank in the top 10 in terms of points allowed per game. They've held three of four opponents to 20 or fewer points. Last year's two games had scores of 24-20 at SF and 20-12, here in the desert. Including that result, four of SF's last five visits here have fallen below the number. I'm expecting more of the same this afternoon. |
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10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Denver OVER the total. This is the lowest total on the board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Steelers have given up at least 24 points in each of their past three games. The Broncos gave up 23 last game. While the offense struggled last week, in large part to Bridgewater going down, in their first three games, the Broncos had scored 23 or more each game. As of this writing, Bridgewater appears on track to start. Six of the past eight meetings have finished above the total. Note that ALL eight produced a minimum of 39 combined points. Last year's game had an O/U line of 41 and finished with 47 points. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Raiders/Chargers OVER the total. I wasn't surprised that last night's game was low-scoring. However, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair this evening. When I'm playing an 'under,' I typically want games which will feature a lot of running. Naturally, the opposite is true when playing an 'over.' More passing plays are preferred. In this case, both teams rank in the top 5 in the NFL, in terms of passing attempts per game. LV is throwing the ball 45.3 times per game, second most in the league. LA isn't far behind, at 42 attempts per game. They rank #1 and #4 respectively, in terms of passing yards per game. The Raiders have seen two of their three games produce 59 or more points. They've personally gone over the 30 mark in two of three. Despite facing some defenses which have been known to be stingy, no team has been able to hold them to less than 26 points. Admittedly, the Chargers have been playing solid defense. Still, their games have gotten progressively higher-scoring with the most recent producing 54 points. It should also be mentioned that they're dealing with several injuries on defense. Dating back to last season, the Raiders have seen seven of their last eight finish above the number. Both 2020 meetings produced 57 combined points. Both teams should be able to move the ball and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Jacksonville/Cincinnati OVER the total. Both teams have seen two of their three games fall below the number. Those results have worked in a our favor, as the line has come down a bit from its opener and could easily be higher. A closer look shows that both Jacksonville's loan road game AND Cincinnati's lone home game were high-scoring. The Bengals only game here was against Minnesota. The O/U line was 47 and the teams combined for 51. Meanwhile, the Jags' lone road game (at Houston) had an O/U line of 45.5 and finished with 58 points. Going back further finds that the OVER is 6-0 (or 5-0-1 *depending whether using 45.5 or 46 for 12/16/18 O/U line) the past six times that the Bengals were favored. All six games produced greater than 45 points. In fact, eight of the last nine games that the Bengals have played as favorite have finished with more than 45 points. The other had 44. That includes a 58-point affair when these teams hooked up last October, Burrow throwing for 300 yards. Burrow has more weapons and more confidence now. In only the second time in NFL history that a rookie QB, who was taken #1, faces a QB who was #1 overall the previous year, look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 60 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Carolina UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game, the Texans run the ball the second most in the NFL, so far this season. (Only Baltimore has more rushing attempts per game.) The Panthers also like to pound the ball on the ground. With 30 rushing attempts per game, they're currently tied with a few other teams for the 5th most carries per game. That said, Carolina has a 2-0 record, thanks to its defense. Through two games, the Panthers are allowing just 10.5 points per game. That's the best defense, in terms of points allowed per game, in the entire league. Their 190 yards allowed per game also ranks #1 and their 4.1 yards per play ranks #2, second to only Buffalo. That's after the Panthers had just faced the Saints, too. (Remember, the Saints dropped 38 on Green Bay in Week 1.) On the other side of the ball, averaging 22.5 ppg, the Panthers' offense ranks only #19 in terms of points per game. These teams combined for 26 points (16-10 final) when they met in 2019. All three meetings over the past 10 years have produced 41 or fewer points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5 | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Baltimore UNDER the total. When most think Chiefs/Ravens, they think of Mahomes and Jackson going h2h, each putting up a ton of points. Some forget that these are two capable defenses and that both teams are going to do their best to control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field. Prior to their Week 1 (OT) game against the Raiders, the Ravens had seen their previous four games finished with 40, 41, 33 and 20 combined points. In their last three home games, they allowed 13, 14 and 17 points. Baltimore ran the ball 34 times for 189 yards against Oakland. The Ravens will try and employ a similar strategy to help keep Mahomes off the field. As you know, running the ball tends to keep the clock moving. Speaking of running the ball, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Ravens rushed for 150 or more yards in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Vegas UNDER the total for the first half. The Ravens may be depleted at the running back position but that's not going to stop them from establishing the run early on. They'll be doing so against what should be an improved Oakland defense. The Raiders have a new defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley) and the addition of defensive-end Yannick Ngakoue, a former Raven, should help the pass rush. Bradley noted: "....it always starts with stopping the run. I don’t know a team like this to say, 'Hey, we’re going to stop the run. We are going to go out there and compete our tail off and there is a mindset that we know this team can do a lot of damage running the ball.' So, that’s the part that right now I like the way it’s going, but we'll see on Monday night. I got a good feeling about the group. They are working hard together. They understand what is asked of them." The UNDER is 6-1 the Ravens' last seven road games. Their most recent road game was tied 3-3 at halftime. The two before that both had 20 points at halftime. I look for this one to also start off lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Lions/49ers UNDER the total. The Lions and the fans are going to be fired up. That said, this isn't an easy matchup. I expect their new offense to struggle against a tough SF defense. Losing left-tackle Decker to injury doesn't help matters. Remember, the 49ers ranked #4 in the NFL last season, in terms of yards allowed per game. With the offense likely to have trouble moving the ball, that means that the Lions are going to need to play their very best on defense, if they want to compete. The Lions will plan on a fairly heavy dose of the run to try and keep the SF offense off the field and to try and slow down the SF pass rush. While the 49ers offense has some weapons, the team averaged just 23.5 ppg last year. That was only 21st in the league. They'll also be looking to run the ball with regularity. The 49'ers have been seeing their Week 1 games finish below the total in recent years. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final combined score to also prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/TB OVER the total. I'm expecting to see plenty of points in this year's first game. Brady and the Bucs couldn't be stopped by the end of last season. They scored 30 or more points in each of their final seven games. In other words, the Cowboys know they're going to have to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete. The Cowboys have their QB back and that makes them a far more dangerous offense. The Cowboys may not have to contend with Bucs starting saftey, Jordan Whitehead. He's been out with injury and still may not be ready in time for Thursday's game. Either way, I expect Dallas to have some success through the air. Prescott's receivers include Amari Cooper, who recently proclaimed himself to be the "best receiver in the NFL." In fact, it could be argued that the Cowboys' trio of Cooper, Gallup and Lamb is second (in the entire NFL) to only Tampa's trio of Evans, Godwin and Brown. The OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that Dallas was an underdog. Those games had combined scores of 54, 74, 54 and 59. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 146 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC OVER the total. As of this writing, it remains unclear if Mahomes will be able to play or not. Obviously, he'll want to play. Its not up to him though. Obviously, if he's fit to go, the Chiefs want him in there, as do I. Here's what John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told ESPN: "We certainly expect Mahomes to play. We moved the line up to [Chiefs] -3 after reading some quotes from Andy Reid that sounded positive." I expect him to be in there, too. With or without Mahomes, however, the Chiefs are going to need to score a lot of points. On a windy day in Buffalo, the Bills won with defense last week. That game notwithstanding, they're here because of their offense though. The Bills average 30.3 ppg. Both teams rank in the top 5 in terms of points scored and total yards. The Chiefs are number in the latter category. In the event that Mahomes doesn't play, Reid is still going to be aggressive. Henne now has some playoff snaps under his belt and he certainly has some bigtime weapons at his disposal. Neither of these offenses will be stopped on Sunday. Expect a shootout. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 54 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -114 | 139 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Tennessee OVER the total. For good reason, this is the highest O/U line of the weekend's playoff games. I believe that it could easily be even higher. Both these offenses are rolling. The Titans have scored 30 or more points in six of their past seven games. Last time out, they scored 41. Meanwhile, the Ravens scored 38 last time out. In their previous four games, they scored 27, 40, 47, and 34 points. The Ravens will be facing a porous Titan defense which has surrendered a whopping 78 points in its last two games. The Ravens' defenders are going to have their hands full, too. The Titans are the first team in NFL history which has a 2000 yard rusher AND a QB who threw for more than 3500 yards. The Titans average nearly 400 yards of offense per game, second only to the defending champion Chiefs. Despite this game being played at Tennesse, the Titans find themselves "getting points." Thats noteworthy, as the OVER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Titans were listed as underdogs. This will make it seven straight. |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB/Washington UNDER the total. I won with Washington 'under' on Sunday night, while losing with the Eagles. (Thanks Doug Pederson #$%@) The 20-14 final marked the fifth straight Washington game which had stayed below the total. While that normally would cause the O/U lines to start going down, this O/U line is higher than any of those ones. That's because, in part, because the betting public is enamored with Tom Brady. The thought process being that any game that Brady is in will most certainly be high-scoring. Tampa's recent high-scoring games have only helped to strengthen that perception. Certainly, the future Hall-Of-Famer has had his share of good moments this season. However, he's also had some bad ones. Keep in mind that the recent high-scornig TB games have come against the likes of Detroit (worst defense in league, in terms of ppg) Atlanta (twice) and Minnesota (28th defense in terms of ppg). This Washington defense is far stingier than any that Brady and co. have faced recently. Note that Mike Evans, Brady's favorite receiver on this team, hyperextended his knee last game. Though they hope to have him back, if he does play, he may not be quite 100%. On the other side, the Bucs defense is quietly also very good. While the number took a bit of a hit lately, Tampa still only allows 22.2 ppg. With Washington running the ball regularly to help chew up the clock, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-25 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/LV UNDER the total. Considering that the Dolphins allow just 18.4 ppg, I believe that this number is generously high. While they're not in Miami's class defensively, having fired their defensive coordinator before last week's game, the Raiders are determined to improve on that side of the ball. Facing an offensively challenged Dolphin team should help in that regard. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top half of the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game.) Over their past six games, the Dolphins only allowed more than 21 points once - and that was against the defending world champs. Take away that game against KC and the Dolphins have allowed 12, 7 and three points over their last three. While many assume all Raider games will be high-scoring, I'm expecting this one to result in a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Cincinnati OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 45. They finished with 46. Now, with both teams having played some recent 'unders' and the Bengals starting Finley at QB, the O/U line is considerably lower. Before, it was above the 44 mark. Now, we're working with an O/U line below the important 41 mark. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Steelers are out to prove that "all is fine." The Bengals are out to prove that they're not a joke. Both offenses are going to be motivated to move the ball. Both teams have seen their games average more than 44 points overall, on the season. Eleven of Pittsburgh's 13 games, including each of the past two, have finished with at least 40 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals OVER 47.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Arizona OVER the total. While watching the Eagles beat the Saints last week, a number of things stood out to me. Of those, the two most important were: 1. The offense was a lot better with Hurts than with Wentz. He played smart, made good throws while also running very effectively. In fact, both Hurts and Sanders ran for more than 100 yards. Certainly, the offense looked much improved overall. Keep in mind that the Eagles were facing the #1 rated defense in the league. Also, it should be noted that Hurts led the Eagles on a very impressive drive at the end of the first half. Got them all the way down to the 2-yard line, or so, only to bring in Eliott and have him miss a chip-shot field goal. That was a bit of a momentum-killer but it sure wasn't on Hurts. Sean Payton said this of Hurts: " .... was impressive just watching him. I thought he played with poise, made some throws. He was smart. He did a good job." 2. The second important thing that really stood out was that the Eagles' defenders were dropping like flies. Already banged up on that side of the ball, a number of Philadelphia defenders went down. To their credit, the remaining Eagle defenders hung tough. However, a road game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals is entirely different than a home game against Taysom Hill. The Eagles have given up 30, 22, 27 and 38 points their past four road games, an average of more than 29 ppg. While the Cards, who have faced some tough defenses of late, have scored "only" 26 and 28 points their past two games, it wasn't long ago when they had a stretch of five straight games where they scored 30 or more. Overall, Arizona games are averaging 52.4 points. I expect both offenses to have success in this one, the final combined score finishing above the reasonably low total. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Baltimore OVER the total. I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points. The Ravens have allowed at least 19 points in five of their last six, including three straight. Three of those opponents scored 28 or more. All things considered, this number is low. |
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12-07-20 | Washington Football Team v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Washington's last game. However, that was against Dallas. The Steelers are a far stingier opponent. Yet, the O/U line is basically the same as it was for that game. Even after the big day on Thanksgiving, Washington still ranks only 24th in terms of points scored per game. Meanwhile, the Stelers have allowed 14, 10 and 3 points their last three games. Prior to limiting the Cowboys to 16 points, Washington kept Cincy to just nine. The Steelers allow the fewest points in all of football while Washington ranks seventh in that category. They rank #3 and #4, respectively, in terms of yards allowed per game. Expect a defensive, low-scoring affair. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 50.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 177 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/Philadelphia OVER the total. The Seahawks can score points with the best of them. They average 31.8 ppg. Entering Sunday's action, that's second only to KC's 32.1 ppg. Their 400 yards per game ranks fourth and their 6.6 yards per play, ranks second. In other words, the Eagles are going to have to score of they want to keep up. Given that Seattle ranks just 28th, in terms of points allowed and dead last in terms of total yards allowed, I believe that the Eagles will do exactly that. Wentz reportedly had a good week of practice and the Eagles are planning on working Hurts more into the offense. I say it all adds up to a high-scoring affair. |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 57 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LV UNDER the total. Everyone knows that the Chiefs' offense remains really good. However, its their defense which quietly remains underrated. Their 20.3 ppg allowed ranks #6 in the NFL. After getting lit up for 40 points by these same Raiders, the champs responded by allowing 17, 16 and nine points in their next three games. With an extra week to prepare, thanks to last week's bye, I expect the coaching staff to do a much better job at slowing down the Raiders. The Raiders have recently started to get pretty stingy themselves. Last time out, they limited Denver to 12 points. Remember, they rang in November with a 16-6 win at Cleveland. Prior to last month's high-scoring affair, these teams had seen their previous three meetings all finish below the 50 mark, with combined scores of 49, 38 and 38. Overall, seven of the past 10 meetings have fallen below the number. We're working with a very big number, higher than any of those previous 10 meetings, and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-15-20 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/New England UNDER the total. I won with the Patriots to go 'over' in their last game, against the Jets. Therefore, you might wonder why I'd go with the 'under' against Baltimore, which has a better offense than New York. Well, there are a number of reasons. The obvious is that the Ravens have a much better defense than the Jets. Last week, they limited the Colts to just 10 points. In fact, they're allowing just 17.8 ppg, which is best in the entire NFL. (By comparison, the Jets allow 29.8 ppg, 27th best in the NFL.) Also, while the Jets were "playing out the string," every game is a big deal for Baltimore. In other words, there should be no lack of defensive intensity. We're also working with a higher O/U line than we were for the MNF game against the Jets, one which climbed from its opener to provide additional line value. It should also be noted that these teams both run the ball. A lot. The Ravens run the ball 33.3 times per game, #1 in the NFL. The Pats run the ball 32.8 times per game, tied for #2. With two stingy defenses and two offenses keeping the clock moving by running the ball with regularity, expect a low-scoring affair. |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NE/NYJ OVER the total. Tough day for the Patriots yesterday, as the Bills (and Dolphins) won. Reality is setting in for even the most diehard Patriot fans. Regardless of what happens tongiht, their long-standing reign at the top of the division will be coming to an end. Of course, the Jets have been playing out the string for awhile now. They've essentially been out of playoff contention the entire season. All that said, this is more of a game for pride than anything else. Those kind of games, in my experience, tend to be more high-scoring. I expect that to be the case tonight. Keep in mind that the O/U line is lower than ANY of the O/U lines yesterday. So, we don't need to have that high-scoring a game, in order to finish above the total. The Pats scored 21 against the Bills last week and now they're facing a Jets team which allows 29.8 ppg. While the Jets' offense has certainly struggled with Darnold behind center recently, I like that Flacco will be in there tonight. The veteran QB had this to say: ''The bottom line is, it's a lot easier going into the game knowing that I'm playing now than it is to come off the bench at some point in the game. I've gotten my feet wet and all those kinds of things,'' he said. ''So, I feel really good going into the game.'' Look for both offenses to "get healthy" the final combined score finishing above the low number. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 34-17 | Push | 0 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total. The last 10 meetings between these teams have all had O/U lines in the 40s. This one is higher than any of them and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While they've got numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, the 49ers remain a team which wants to play stingy defense and pound the ball on the ground. Facing an elite QB like Rodgers, they'll be even more inclined than normal to try and control the clock and keep him on the sidelines. The loss of Kittle is a big blow to their offense, he's their most dangerous player and arguably the top tight-end in the league. Yes, the 49ers had trouble containing Wilson last week. However, the previous week, they held the Patriots to six points. Their last home gmae ended with a score of 24-16. While the Green Bay offense can be explosive it also can be slowed. The Pack managed just 22 points last week and they're less than a month removed from a 10-point effort at Tampa. Look for this game to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score finishing below the generously high number. |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Philly OVER the total. I've actually won with the 'under' in each of Dallas' last two games, against Arizona and Washington. However, those O/U lines were both considerably higher than this one. Now, with Dalton expected to be out, this O/U line has gone even lower than it opened at. I believe its too low. While Dalton was expected to be a quality backup, the offense wasn't working with him running it. So, DiNucci can't possibly be worse. In fact, given the weapons he's got at his disposal, I expect him to be better. Indeed, the Eagles allow 28 ppg and Dallas will score points. On the other side of the ball, however, is where the Cowboys' real problems are. The defense is giving up big yards and big points. They can't stop the run OR the pass. They're allowing a whopping 34.7 ppg. Needless to say, the Eagles are licking their chops. They're not about to show a hated rival any mercy, either. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. While they had trouble slowing down Baltimore, I expect the Eagles to have considerably more success in doing so against the offensively challenged Giants. Given the state of the NFC East, this is a big game. The Giants won with defense last week, beating Washington by a 20-17 score. It marked the fifth time, through six games, that they scored 20 or fewer points. In fact, their 101 total points scored is the lowest in the NFC and second lowest (Jets are worse) in the entire NFL, among teams which have played six games. (Broncos have scored 100 in five games.) The last two meetings between these teams, here at Philadelphia, have both stayed below the total. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 45 and finished with 40, a 23-17 win for the Eagles. That one went to OT; just 34 points were scored in regulation. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 54 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 179 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Dallas UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Cowboy games have flown over the total. However, Dallas is now without its starting QB and its facing an Arizona team which has been seeing its games stay below the number. Yes, the Cardinals have some dangerous offensive weapons. However, Arizona has still seen all five of its games produce 52 or fewer combined points, the UNDER going 4-0-1. While I respect Dalton, Prescott was playing at a very high level. Yes, the Cowboy offense will still be good. But, a small step back would only be natural. That means that the Cowboys will need to be better defensively. I believe that they can be. Also, a tough Arizona secondary should lead Dallas to run the ball more regularly. It all adds up to this one proving lower-scoring than the shootout which many will be expecting. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/GB UNDER the total. With all due respect to Rodgers and co, I believe this number is simply too high. Yes, GB has put up some very big numbers. Yes, the Falcons have been on the wrong side of some crazy comebacks, which has led to some high scores. Thats not going to keep happening though; they may never have a lead to blow in this one in the first place. Either way, those high scores and the high scores in the league in general, have worked in our favor, driving this O/U line up higher than it would have been, if these teams had met a few weeks ago. (The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 54.) Obviously, the Packer offense has been functioning at a high level. GB is going to be anxious to get the defense performing better though and I believe that's going to be a priority this week. Kingsley Keke has emerged in his absence but the Pack hope to get Kenny Clark back this week and he's huge for their defense. Either way, I see the Packers defense improving this week. Of course, the Falcons will be doing everything in their power to keep Rodgers and co. on the sidelines. They'll get some points. Just not enough to finish above this generously high number. Go Under. |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/LV UNDER the total. Brady took some criticism for poor play in his Tampa debut. However, I believe that the Saints defense deserves the credit. This New Orleans defense is loaded and they'll give a lot more QBs trouble than just Brady. Of course, the Saints offense is also dangerous. However, they do mix in a healthy amount of running plays (ran the ball 34x in Week 1) which helps to keep the clock moving. As for the Raiders, you know that they're also going to run the ball with regularity. Yes, they got into a high-scoring game against Carolina. Scoring points figures to be a lot more difficult for them this week though, which means that they're going to have to improve defensively if they want to compete. After scoring 30 in their opener last season, the Saints managed just nine points in their road opener, at LA. That game stayed well below its high O/U line. I believe that this one will also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 119 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Given the play of both the offenses and defenses in Week 1, I believe that this number is generously high. LA ran the ball 40 times in its opener and scored 20 points in total. The heavy dose of running plays helped to chew up the clock. On the other side of the ball, the Rams new look defense was solid. At least, in the second half. The Cowboys managed only three points and 139 total yards after the break. MacVay noted: McVay said. ''...I like the way our defense settled in the game.'' It should be noted that the Rams stopped the Cowboys twice on fourth down while also stopping the Cowboys nine of 12 times on third down. As for the Eagles, Wentz got sacked eight times last week, while also getting picked off twice. They're going to be anxious to avoid a repeat performance, particularly with Aaron Donald coming to town. The Eagle offense managed only 90 total yards in the second half. While Doug Pederson may claim otherwise, I expect he'll be a little less aggresive (more run plays) to try and protect his QB. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles were arguably stingier than the score indicates. They held Washington to just 239 total yards of offense. The bottom line is that I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos UNDER 41 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 243 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tenn/Denver UNDER the total. Both these teams were in the top half of the league, in terms of a rushing attempts, last season. A relatively heavy dose of the run shoud keep the clock moving in this one. Both teams also ranked in the top half of the leauge, in terms of points allowed and in terms of rushing yards allowed, per attempt. Additionally, Denver was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last season. The Broncos ranked 28th in terms of points scored (17.6) and also 28th in terms of total yards (298.6) per game. These teams met last October and the final score was 16-0. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 1490 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Houston UNDER the total. I successfully played on the 'over' (for the first half) when these teams met in the playoffs. So, I'm well aware that they can score points in a hurry. That said, for the opening game of the season, with no preseason, I feel that the the offenses won't be clicking the way that they were in January; the timing is likely to be just a little off. Houston has some new faces on offense. Keep in mind that the Chiefs slowed things down in their SB win and held SF to 20 total points, that game staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 332 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/SF UNDER the total. Both conference championship games finished above the total. Those results have helped provide us with a generously high O/U line for the big game. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The 49ers are here, in large part, to their defense. While they eventually gave up some points, they held the Packers scoreless through the first half, making Rodgers look bad. On the season, they allow just 18.9 ppg and 279 ypg. Though more known for their offense, the Chiefs defense is better than people realize. They allow a respectable 20.2 ppg and 357 ypg. Going into the game against the Titans, people said they were vulnerable against the run and that they would have trouble against Henry. After all, Henry had been running wild. They silence those critics though, effectively taking him out of the game, or at least limiting him. The 49ers only played two games with a total of 50 or greater all season and both of those finished below the number. They've also seen the UNDER go 3-1 against AFC teams and 2-0 the past two times that they played with two week's rest in between games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high total. |