Rating: 2 Units

The Jaguars are the perfect under team. Kenpom makes them the worst offense in all of Division I. They also play at one of the slowest paces in the country. This has allowed the under to cash in all nine of their games against Division I opponents. The Eagles also play at a very slow pace. Their offense is not good either. They are only averaging 64.9 PPG against Division I teams. This game is going to be played at a criminally slow pace and stay under this low total.

Rating: 2 Units

Double digit home favs been Money in the Bank for under bettors as of late as witnessed by the fact that all GAME 3 > NFL home favorites of -10 > points (Bucs vs Saints), when the OU line is > 44 points. In the past two years, is o 77% UNDERS (7-24 O/U).

Rating; 2 Units

Sunday’s late afternoon ‘Do or Die’ game in the Rocky Mountains features the 7-6 Bengals taking on the 7-6 Broncos... with the loser probably eliminated from post-season play. It looks like both teams will be going all out in a Must-Win contest (for both). So that means we’ll be Going over in this Cincinnati/Denver game. Consider that All Week 9 > non-division games when both teams are > .500 on the season (BRONCOS + BENGALS) is 20-5 O/U the last two years.

Rating: 2 Units

These are two of the best offenses in the country. Kenpom ranks the Hawkeyes as the 4th best offense and the Aggies as the 46th best offense. This has allowed the over to cash at high rates for both of these teams. Six of the Hawkeyes seven home games and all six of the Aggies games away from home have gone over the total. This game is going to be played at an extremely fast pace and go over this total.

Rating: 3 Units

It looks like a Saturday shootout is in order this week, as the hottest two offenses in the league will be going at each other at Lucas Oil Stadium. That means the over in this week’s PATRIOTS @ COLTS game as we head to late-season Saturday action. In the last two months of play (7 weeks), the host COLTS are the #1 offense in the league (averaging 33.1 ppg) while the visiting PATRIOTS are right behind (#2) at 32.1 ppg. That’s a good start for us. But let’s not forget the historically high-scoring nature of this series as well. The Pats and Colts have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last 7 meetings vs each other, with a gaudy average of 64.4 combined PPG! Consider as well that since 2010, NFL games have gone 8-1 O/U when BOTH teams are off their Bye (COLTS / PATS), and the OU line is 46 or less points.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams have been cashing the under consistently. The under has cashed in all five of the Gaels games away from home and the under has cashed in four of the Aztecs five home games this season. These teams have elite defenses. Kenpom ranks the Gaels as the 8th best defense and the Aztecs as the 11th best defense. Additionally, both of these teams play with no urgency. This will be a defensive battle from the tip. Take the under.

Rating: 2 Units

This total has risen from 6 to my magic number of 6.5 because the Oilers are starting backup Stuart Skinner over Mikko Koskinen in net, but I don't care. Offensively, Edmonton has scored two goals or fewer in five straight games. Columbus generally isn't the type of team to score more than three goals.

Rating: 2 Units

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has actually been very good for the Sabres since being called up not allowing more than 3 goals in a game. However, he will face the highest scoring team in the league in Minnesota tonight as they are averaging 4.5 goals per game at home. Wild overs are 11-1 at home while Sabres are 8-4 to the over on the road. Cam Talbot is starting for the Wild and he allowed 6 goals in his last outing, I like this over.

Rating: 2 Units

 Brad Marchand and Matthew Barzal will be out for this game and those are big losses for both teams. The Islanders average just 2.13 goals per game while the Bruins average just 2.76 goals per game. 7 of the last 8 games for the Bruins have come in with this under, and the Islanders average an even lower 1.6 goals per game at home. Linus Ullmark has been very good for the Bruins. This should be a defensive battle with both top offensive players injured, take the under.

Rating: 2 Units

I understand why this total has moved to 6, but New Jersey simply can't score right now and Devils netminder Mackenzie Blackwood has been way better at home (1.98 GAA) so he could slow a potent Knights offense. Vegas is expected to go with backup Laurent Brossoit (2.66 GAA, .911 SV), but he actually has better numbers than No. 1 Robin Lehner. We might push here, but I don't think lose barring a 3-3 tie at the end of regulation.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'll take this moderate total to go over in an interesting matchup between UCF and Temple. Central Florida seems to focus more on offensive production and runs up the score in road games. They're 3-0 on the over when away from home and each time the total has safely cashed by at least 10 points. Temple should help by getting to the free throw line and adding points with the clock stopped while staying competitive at home. The over is the play here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spartans have a terrible offense. Kenpom ranks them as 333rd best offense in the country. Now they have to face the powerful Volunteers defense which Kenpom ranks number one in the country. Tennessee doesn’t have the most elite offense as proven in their game against Texas Tech. This total is way too high. This game shouldn’t come close to this total.

Rating: 2 Units

Both the Rams and the Panthers play with no urgency. The under has cashed in seven out of ten games for the Rams and six out of nine games for the Panthers. The Rams defense has been amazing this season only allowing 62.8 PPG. They should slow down the Panthers in this game. The Rams will slow down the pace in this game and keep this under the total.

Rating: 2 Units

I usually stay away from overs at 6.5 but honestly this over/under should be set at 7. Both these teams are high risk, high reward teams. Anthony Duclair and Aleksander Barkov were out of the lineup last game but they could be back in tonight. Gabriel Landeskog left the Aves last game early, but Nazem Kadri is expected to return tonight. Aves home games are 8-2 to the over this season and the Aves have scored 7 goals in each of their last 3 games. Take the over.

Rating 3 Units

The oddsmakers have set a fairly high bar for us, with the OU line hovering in the range of 52.5 to 53.0 points (HIGHEST line of the week). At the very least, we can feel confident that we have not one... but TWO very good offenses that should have no problem trading points with each other (both teams averaging 28.0 > PPG this season). The high line in this game is indeed justified, a all NFC home favorites (BUCS) vs an AFC opponent (BILLS), when the OU line is GREATER than (>) 50 points is 16-4-1 O/U since 2015 / 9-1-1 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 3 Unit

Sharp bettors already know that the G-Men have gone a league-LOW 6-21-1 OU in the last 2 years (including 3-16 O/U in NON-division play). Not only that, but EACH of New York’s last SEVEN games have gone UNDER ( 0-7 OU / avg margin: -12.1 ppg). To top it all off, there’s a very good chance that they will be starting a QB who wasn’t even on the team 10 short days ago (Jake Fromm). In their last three games, the Giants have scored only 9, 13, and 10 points

Rating: 2 Units

The visiting Cowboys are in the middle of 3 straight road games in a row. All FAVS of 2 > pts in the 2ND of 3 straight road games (Dallas) is 5-18-2 O/U since 87 / 2-10 O/U since 2011 / 0-6 O/U L5Y years. In their last two games, Dallas has allowed 17 pts (vs NOrl) and 36 pts (vs LV). All NFL favorites who allowed 17 < pts and 35 > pts in their last two games (Dallas), when the OU line is < 51 points is 1-8-1 O/U so far THIS season.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Oilers have the best power play in the league, but they will be facing the second-best penalty kill in the league, so that should keep scoring in check. The Oilers haven’t scored more than 2 goals in any of their last 3 games while the Canes haven’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of their last three. The Oilers goalies have been questionable lately so I am a little worried that pushes this one over, but now that it is at 6.5 there is still value. I was originally going to wait to make sure the starting goalies were in but now the line jumped up to 6.5 so I think there's value either way. Wouldn't be surprised to see Severance hop on too now since we all know his love for 6.5 unders, and it looks like this is the only 6.5 today. Take the under.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bruins score just 2.8 goals per game on the road while the Flames score just 2.7 goals per game at home, but these are two of the best defenses in the league. The Flames allow just 2.15 goals per game, good for 1st in the league, while the Bruins allow just 2.57 goals per game, good for 6th best. Linus Ullmark hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of his last 4 starts and Jeremy Swayman has been even better for the Bruins. Jacob Markstrom hasn’t allowed more than 3 goals in his last 12 starts. Both teams are top 10 in penalty kill %, if we can avoid a 3-2 empty netter, this should finish under.

Rating: 2 Units

The Flyers played last night and won, so they are expected to start Martin Jones in net today while the Coyotes played yesterday as well, so they are expected to start Karel Vejmelka today. The Flyers average just 1.8 goals per game on the road, so don’t let their 4 goal outburst against a backup goalie last night fool you. The Coyotes average just 2.3 goals per game this season at home and they haven’t scored more than 2 goals in their last 6 games. These are your 27th and 32nd ranked teams in terms of goals scored, take the under.

Rating: 2 Units

Canucks unders are now 11-1 at home and as Ive said, we will ride that trend until it stops. All three of the Canucks home games this homestand have hit this under and the Jets played last night so they should be a little weary. The Canucks have played very good defense in front of Thatcher Demko since hiring Bruce Boudreau and I think that will continue tonight against a poor road team. The Jets score just 2.3 goals per game on the road while the Canucks score 2.2 goals per game at home. Eric Comrie should get the start for the Jets, but he has been solid so far this season. It looks like this line will rise to 6 but I actually want to get this play in at +115 at 5.5 instead of adding a push scenario at -125 at 6 because I feel like there is more value at plus money. If it goes over, I think there will be more than 6 goals scored.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams struggle offensively and play with no urgency. The Broncos average 64.1 points per game and the Matadors are scoring 59.1 as both rank in the bottom 50 in the nation. The Broncos have gone Over the total in only two of their eight games, while the Matadors have done so just once in six contests. This game will be played at a very slow pace and stay Under this low total.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jackets score just 2.5 goals per game on the road, and they didn’t score more than three in any of the four games in their last road trip. The Maple Leafs are dominant at home where they are 9-5 to the Under, but they only allow two goals per game at home. This was 5.5 earlier but it has popped up to 6 so I will take it while its at 6. I think the Blue Jackets score 2 goals max, so we just have to hope the Maple Leafs sc, so let's take the Under at this number.

Rating: 2 Units

Canucks are 9-1 to the under at home this season and the Kings are 6-2 to the under on the road. The Kings played last night so they should be a little weary. Last night's game was also 2-1 until the very end of the third period so the 5-1 final score is deceiving. Cal Peterson is the Kings backup and he is expected to start tonight, but he has only allowed more than 3 goals twice this season. Thatcher Demko has been much better for the Canucks as of late, but the Canucks just fired their leadership so I would expect the Canucks to be more focused tonight with everyone now playing for their job security. I think one of these teams gets shut down, I like the under.

Rating: 2 Units

You know the drill: If the total is 6.5 goals, I'm going Under. It's just not that easy for two teams to total seven goals in an NHL game regardless of whom is in net. The Flyers have been held to three goals or fewer in eight straight games -- all losses. That cost coach Alain Vigneault his job today.

Rating: 2 Units

Wow, two games with totals of 6.5 today! Not sure I've seen that this season. The Sens are not a good offensive team so I can easily see Mackenzie Blackwood holding them to one goal. Don't expect New Jersey to score six to go Over this number. I may come back and play the moneyline on this one as well.

Rating: 2 Units

Featuring two teams playing FANTASTIC defensive football as of late. Kansas
City: only 14.5 ppg allowed L6 games / 1-5 O/U... Denver: 17.2 ppg allowed L5 / perfect 0-5 O/U!...With KC laying Double D’s (-10) in this one, we won't bury the lead. DOUBLE D games = UNDERS. 6-24-2 O/U L2Y: All home favs of -10 > pts with an OU line of 44 > pts (Chiefs). Kansas City comes in well-rested off their Bye Week. And since Game 7, NFL teams AFTER their Bye Week (Chiefs), have gone 3-15 O/U TY.

Rating: 2 Units

The Seattle Seahawks are the #1 UNDER team in the league this season. Seattle games have gone 1-9-1 O/U TY, with an average of only 39.5 combined PPG. Talk about REGRESSION! Seattle’s offensive numbers are DOWN by -9.2 ppg compared to last year (19.0 ppg vs 28.2 ppg)... and their defensive numbers have IMPROVED by -3.1 ppg (20.5 ppg vs 23.6). It’s no wonder they’ve gone from 51.8 combined ppg to only 39.5 ppg. So we’ll be Going LOW (again) in this week’s Niners @ Seahawks game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Jacksonville Jaguars should be at the top of ALL bettors’ lists, when it comes to favorite UNDER teams. Since an OVER in Game One, the JAGS have gone 1-9 O/U in their last ten games... with an average margin of -11.3 ppg... and have not topped 17 points in SIX straight games. That’s what we call Offensive Futility. It didn’t get any better vs the Falcons last week either (14 total points and QB Lawrence had only 5.4 yards per passing attempt). We’ll keep riding Jaguar UNDERS until the streak is broken.

Rating: 2 Units

Big Ten opener for both and these are the two highest-scoring offenses in the country. The Hawkeyes are averaging 94 PPG and the Boilermakers 92.4. This game is going to be amazing to watch, very fast paced and high scoring. It will explode past the total.

Rating: 2 Units

These two teams have already played twice this season with both totals hitting this over, and 7 straight matchups in this series have hit this over. Both these teams score a lot, and both these teams have good power plays. The Panthers score 4.2 goals per game at home while the Caps score 3.4 goals per game on the road, I like this over.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are defense-oriented. The Toreros allow just 60 points per game and the Under has cashed in their last three games. The Matadors are averaging just 55 points away from home, while the Toreros allow 52.3 points per game at home. Both teams play at a slow pace. Go Under.

Rating: 3 Units

San Francisco’s last two games have been VERY revealing. They have MASTERED the art of the l-o-n-g, time-consuming offensive drive. Check out how much clock they have eaten lately. In the win over LA, they had a drive of 11+ minutes, 6+ minutes, and 6+ minutes (that led to just 13 total pts). And in the win over the Jaguars, they did even better: A drive of 13+ minutes in the 1st quarter(!), 7.5 minutes, and 6 minutes (that led to 17 total pts). They have thrown the ball just 41 times in TWO games, while running it 86 times! It’s a DOUBLE-whammy: They have taken a LONG time to score... AND kept the opposing offenses off the field. Those huge running numbers should continue this week when they face the league’s WORST rushing defense in the Vikings (allowing 4.8 yards per rush TY). So with that said, it’s UNDER the Total of 48.5 points in the Minnesota / San Francisco game

Rating: 3 Units

Our quest for OVER value in an ‘under the radar’ game takes us to Houston this week, as the TEXANS host the NY JETS. With two of the worst defenses in the league squaring off, POINTS should be PLENTY. I know the Texans haven’t scored > 22 points since Week One, but they have the perfect foe to ‘feast on’ this Holiday Weekend. JETS: #32 overall D (414.3) AND #32 scoring D (32.0 ppg allowed). Not only that, but 39.8 allowed in L5 games! Jumping out at us is Houston’s Home / Away ‘splits’. Texan HOME games (49.5) are averaging +12.3 ppg MORE than their road games (only 37.2) this season. Also in our favor is the fact that the JETS are on a current 6-1 O/U run (+12.2 ppg)... have gone 7-1 O/U as road dogs of 8 > pts L4Y... are 9-1 O/U vs the AFC South... and have averaged 49.8 ppg in their road games this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Combined, these two teams average 204.6 points per game this season, but OKC is again without star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his 20.4 points and 4.4 assists. Washington is a Top 10 defensive team and OKC in the Top 16 via rating.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wild are always better defensively at home with the last line change, while Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has a 1.63 GAA and .949 save percentage through his last three starts. Winnipeg has scored just four goals combined during a four-game skid.

Rating: 2 Units

These 2 solid defenses are allowing only 39.4 combined PPG on the year (Buf 17.6 / NO 21.8). We already know that Thursday home dogs (like the Saints) have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U this season (36.8) ppg. Let’s also not forget that New Orleans has gone 0-9 O/U in their last nine Thursday games since 2013! (39.0). Yes, we’re aware the Saints are off 4 straight ‘Overs’ in a row. However, all GAME 15 < dogs of 10 < pts off 4+ overs (Saints), when the line is 50 < points is 11-27 OU since 2014. Consider as well that all AFC road favs of > 3 pts (Buf) vs any NFC opponent (NOrl), when the OU line is in the range of 38 to 52 points is 4-20 OU since 2013.

Rating: 2 Units

Both these teams have been very good defensively to start the season and both teams have had very good goaltending. Maple Leafs unders are 14-6 overall and 5-2 on the road while Kings unders are 13-5 overall and 7-3 at home. The Leafs have scored more than 3 goals just one time in their last 8 games while the Kings have scored more than three just once in their last 6 games. Both teams are well rested, I like the under.

Rating: 2 Units

The Flyers are playing tonight in Tampa Bay so they will have to presumably use their backup netminder at Florida on Wednesday, but those of you who follow me know that I will never turn down an O/U of 6.5. Philly didn't exactly enter Tuesday's matchup tearing it up offensively. Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has a 1.99 GAA. Florida remains without one of its best forwards in Aleksander Barkov, who has 17 points.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Canadiens remain without a large chunk of their top offensive players and I don't see them scoring more than one goal against Capitals netminder Ilya Samsonov, who is coming off back-to-back shutouts. Montreal does get back No. 1 goaltender Jake Allen from injury so in my scenario, we simply need him to hold Washington to four goals and we hit this under.

Rating: 2 Units

In my mind, this is going to be a defensive slog in the Bahamas. Both clubs allow only around 60 points per game. Teams are shooting 34.5 percent against Sparty and 37 percent against the Ramblers. Not like either club knows these rims, either. And, yes, that does matter. First-year Loyola head coach Drew Valentine was a graduate assistant coach on Tom Izzo's staff at Michigan State in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Rating: 2 Units

Both Jacob Markstrom and Marc Andre Fleury have been very good lately, and both these teams are coming off wins and shutouts in their last game. The Flames have allowed just 36 goals in 19 games while the Blackhawks have scored just 40 goals in 18 games. Fleury hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of his last 4 games, and Markstrom hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals in any of his last 3 games. I like the under.

Rating: 2 Units

This number is way too low. The Red Raiders' offense has been spectacular so far this season. They are averaging 86.3 points on 48.5 percent shooting from the field. The Mavericks are terrible defensively so the Red Raiders will have an easy time scoring. And the Mavericks are good enough offensively to do their part and get this game Over.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are great defensively. The Cowboys are allowing 54.7 points per game, including an overtime contest, while the Antelopes are yielding 56 points per game. Both teams also play a s slow pace. Look for an offensive struggle as this is the first time either team has faced a strong defense.

Rating: 2 Units

When Tampa Bay hosts the NY Giants under the Monday Night lights this evening a lot "OVER" developments will be in place. Tampa Bay has gone over in each of the last 6 meetings with the Giants by an average total of 59.5 PPG as well as going over in 6 of their last 7 games as home chalk of 8 or more points, and over in each of their last 3 Monday Night games. In addition the G-Men have gone over the number in 6 of their last 7 away games versus the NFC South.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the highest total on the board today and I'm always going Under a number this big. It's not that easy to get to 80 points in a college basketball game these days. South Dakota State is an excellent offensive team, but Nevada isn't about to get into a track meet with the Jackrabbits. The SportsLine Projection Model has this game finishing with 155 points.

Rating: 2 Units

These two teams combine to average 4.74 goals per game and the total is 6? I'll take it. Hawks netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has allowed two goals or fewer in three straight.

Rating: 2 Units

Both backup goalies should be starting in Kaapo Kahkonen and Brian Elliott, and both teams should be tired after playing last night. Brian Elliott has a 3.05 GAA and .880 save percentage but the Lightning always tend to play poorly in front of him. The Wild game had 9 goals in total while the Lightning game had 8 goals total yesterday and that was with both teams starting goalies. Take the over.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are terrible offensively and strong defensively. Also, the Spartans play at one of the slowest paces in the nation. The Panthers' offensive numbers are skewed due to their 111-point outburst against a non-Division I opponent. Under is the play.

5 Unit NFL Total of the Month

KC can let it all hang it this week with a Bye upcoming. And ‘Bye the way’... we’ve mentioned all season long about the hot over pattern for these teams. In the long and short term. All non-div favs before their Bye Week (KC), with OU line 41 > pts is 91-51-3 O/U since 2007. All favs before their Bye Week with OU line of 45 > pts (CHIEFS) is 8-0 O/U this year. It looks like the Sharps and Squares alike will both be on the over. #1 vs #4 offense + Last team with ball wins = Arrowhead SHOOTOUT.... 37 to 34!

Rating: 2 Units

The Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country. They are only allowing 60.7 PPG and they have had some tough competition to start this season. Now they face the Mavericks who are terrible offensively. They only average 64 PPG which doesn’t tell the entire story. They scored 104 against a non-division I school and they had a game go into overtime. According to Kenpom, they are 324th in adjusted offensive efficiency. These teams are terrible from behind the arc and at the free throw line which helps the under a lot. The Aztecs like to play at a slow pace and have a defensive mentality. This is going to be a boring game to watch with points being very hard to come by. Under is the play.

Rating: 2 Unit

This total is perplexing considering these teams combined for 203 points in the same gym on Wednesday when the Mavs were without Luka Doncic. He's listed as doubtful tonight. Why would the score change much? Dallas only got 98 points in the first game despite shooting 16-for-32 from deep, and the Mavericks aren't repeating that.

Rating: 2 Units

You know the rule: 6.5 goals means Under. Should have won on Under 6 in the Avs' last game but they scored an empty-netter with 11 seconds left to push. Colorado remains without a handful of key offensive players led by Nathan MacKinnon. The Kraken are really starting to fade offensively, scoring two goals in each of their past two. I see a 4-2 final here in Colorado's first trip to Seattle.

Rating; 2 Units

These teams have terrible offenses. The Panthers' numbers are inflated from their game against a non-Division I opponent, and the Phoenix went to double overtime in their first game. The Phoenix like to slow the game down and should have no problem doing that against the Panthers. FIU is strong defensively, and both teams are on a back-to-back, which will hurt the offenses. Under is the play.

Rating: 2 Units

 I am contractually obligated to go Under when a game gets to 6.5 goals even though the Oilers are starting backup netminder Stuart Skinner. He did blank Winnipeg for about 20 minutes in the Jets' 5-2 win Tuesday after Mikko Koskinen was pulled. That game only went Over 6.5 on an empty-netter with about 90 seconds left. Frankly, I believe that about 90 percent of losses on an Under 6.5 will only come via an empty-netter, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blues have scored three goals or fewer in five of their past six and face San Jose's James Reimer, whose 1.77 GAA is second in the NHL. Yes, the Blues are starting backup Ville Husso, but he threw a shutout in his lone start this year. The Sharks have scored three or fewer in four of their past six.

Rating: 2 Units

 Both the Spartans and Phoenix like to play at a slow pace. And they're not good offensively. The Spartans rank 246th and the Phoenix 299th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Spartans are averaging 60.7 points and the Phoenix 55.5, and that includes both teams having played an overtime game. The Spartans' defense looks tough as they are allowing just 56.7 points per game. Go Under.

Rating: 2 Units

 Both of these teams have elite defenses. The Bonnies have allowed just 53.5 points per game, the Broncos 57 points per game. Both play very slow offensively. Both teams like to score in the paint, but these defenses thrive at rim protection. These are two of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation. Go Under.

Rating: 2 Units

Some books have this at 5.5 goals so let's grab 6 while Caesars has that available. Anaheim has been shockingly good offensively thus far, but I don't buy that continues. John Gibson, meanwhile, has been great in net overall and especially at home with a 5-1 record and 1.51 GAA. The Caps' Vitek Vanecek has a 2.34 GAA on the year. Washington already is down a few key offensive guys and now Lars Eller (eight points) is iffy. The Under is 4-1 in Ducks' last five games as a home underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

A rare total of 6.5 in the NHL! I honestly don't care who is playing, I'll always take Under this. Edmonton can be awesome offensively at times but also has scored two goals in two of its past four. Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has a 1.96 GAA at home this year. This, my friends, is a no-brainer. The only way I see losing this is a 3-3 tie at the end of regulation but we probably will not see a total of 7 in the entire regular season. The Under is 4-0-1 in Winnipeg's past five at home.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have looked terrible offensively. Out of 358 teams, the Jaguars are ranked 341st and the Pioneers 346th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. With the slow tempo that the Jaguars like to play at, this game won’t come close to this number. Under is the play.

Rating: 2 Unit

The model makes this one 138.5, which is a very strong play on a total. I think we see a good deal of 3-pointers in this game, which should help us cash in. Princeton took 31 shots from long distance against South Carolina and Minnesota has averaged 20 3-point attempts in its first two games. If the deep shots fall at any decent rate, this one should get above 133. Take the Over.

Rating: 3 Units

NFL Total of the Week

Minnesota figures to run all ‘OVER’ (pun intended) the WORST rushing defense in the NFL, as LA allows 161.5 ypg and 5.0 yards per carry. Just like Philly did in last week’s OVER. From the Rushing portion of the database.  All GAME 5 > non-division home favs who ALLOW 5.0 > yards per rush (LA) are : 9-1-1 O/U last 4 years.  All > .500 GAME 8 > home teams who ALLOW 4.7 > ypr (LA) vs any opponent who averages 4.7 > ypr (MIN), when the OU line is 53 < points is 8-0 O/U since 2002..

Rating: 2 Units

 This line opened at 142.5 and has been hammered by sharp money up to 149.5. When this happens, the likelihood is that the sharps got a much better number than what's available, with the books compensating by raising the line. I think we probably got too much of a reaction, and my model is going to make this one closer to the original number at 143. Therefore, I'll happily go with what looks like a 6.5-point edge and take the gamble that this comes in lower than billed. This being an in-state rivalry also should aid the Under.

Rating: 2 Units

This line opened at 133, which my numbers had as a fair line, but it's been bet down to 130, and I have that as an actionable number. I have the game getting to 135, and I think both offenses have the ability to find the bucket. Fairfield went Over by 20 points in its first game against Providence. BC has come within four points of the total in each of its first two contests. So with the model indicating Over, I'd play this up to 131 at the most.

Rating: 2 Unit

The OU line opened at 48.0 points, and has been bet down to 47.5.   All game 3 > home favs of < 13 pts who just scored 45 or more points at home the previous week (Colts) is 13-35-1 O/U (73% Unders) since 1982:. In the last 5 years, these teams have gone a perfedct 0-5 O/U. NFL teams who scored 40 or more pts on a Thursday (Colts) have gone a perfect 0-6 O/U in the last 4 years. This Indy offense is playing pretty good as of late, with 30 or more points in EACH of their last 4 games. That might make some under bettors a little gun shy. However, NFL favs who scored 30+ pts in each of their last 4 games (Colts) have gone 3-16-1 O/U since 2015, when the OU line is 52 < pts.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re certainly aware that the Lions were held to only six points on offense in their last game. With that said, NFL dogs of 10 < pts who scored < 7 points at home in their last game (LIONS) have gone 11-1 O/U since 2013 in game 14 or less. So that was a dominating and embarrassing loss by the score of 44 to 6 in their last game. Already this season, NFL teams off a bad loss of 35 or more points (LIONS) have gone a perfect  5-0 O/U in their next game. Avg MARGIN: +12.5 ppg! For the longest time, Pittsburgh was one of our favorite home ‘OVER’ teams in the entire league. And they’ve still gone 16-3 O/U as GAME 11 < non-div HF’s of 9 < pts (10-1-1 O/U L5 years!)

Rating: 2 Units

Big division road favorites of -8 > pts (Buf vs NYJ) have gone 10-30 O/U in
L10 years, including 3-21 O/U when the OU line is in the range of 43-50 pts. Buffalo’s game vs J’Ville last week had only 519 TOTAL offensive yards, and zero TD’s (final score was 9 to 6).  All NFL teams off a ‘10/10’ game (scored and allowed 10 < pts), when the OU line is > 46 points (Bills) is 1-10 O/U since 2009. For the host Jets, they play with added rest off that Thursday game vs the Colts. NFL teams off a Thursday road loss (Jets) have gone 4-23 O/U L4 years. That includes an almost-perfect 1-17 O/U when off a SU and ATS loss (Jets).

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams were terrible offensively in their openers. They both shot under 40 percent from the field. Defensively, the Aggies were dominant, holding UNF to just 46 points. The Wildcats showed flashes of defensive potential as well as they held the Utes to under 40 percent from the field. Both of these teams like to play at a slower pace. Go Under.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are missing big scorers in Khris Middleton and Jaylen Brown. The Bucks have been one of the best Under teams in the NBA with 75 percent of their games landing Under. Sixty percent of Boston's have and three of four at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell has a 2.09 GAA this season and that number is 1.75 this month. Flyers counterpart Carter Hart has a 1.98 GAA at home. Toronto star John Tavares is a game-time decision with an injury. I am monitoring that and if he's out will come back on the Flyers moneyline -- I might anyways. The Under is 6-1 in the Maple Leafs' past seven road games.

Rating: 2 Units

I'll pretty much go Under 6 goals whenever I can ... Chicago is still among the NHL's lowest-scoring teams, and both clubs remain without a couple of key forwards due to injury, COVID, etc. Both netminders -- Tristan Jarry and Marc-Andre Fleury -- are capable of dominating.

Rating: 2 Units

The Canes allowed 4 goals in the first period of their last game so they should come out with more urgency defensively. However, they will need to keep up with the Lightning with scoring on the road. These teams know each other so well so I expect it to be a back-and-forth matchup. I like this over at 5.5 because we get the win scenario at 4-2 with an empty netter or if it gets tied 3-3. Take the over.

Rating: 2 Units

 Every model I can find has this final score being at least six points lower than the listed total -- the SportsLine Projection Model has it at 141 points. KenPom ranks Rider at No. 206 in adjusted offensive efficiency entering the season and Duquesne 225. Both schools added a ton of transfers so the offenses could be rather shaky in the early going. The Dukes are replacing 10 of their top 12 scorers from last year's opening day roster. One of those top transfers, RJ Gunn, is not expected to play due to injury.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Rangers are good defensively, but the Canes were one of the best defensive teams in the league before the Panthers put up four goals on them in the first period. Both goalies have been good this season, but Shesterkin allowed 6 goals in his last game. The Panthers are very potent offensively and I think that will make this game high scoring. The Panthers road games average 5 goals per game while the Rangers home games average 5 goals per game, so it is easy to why this is the line. However, the Panthers should still get their 3-4 goals while the Rangers should be able to score 2-3 themselves. Take this before it moves to 6.

Rating: 2 Units

Five straight Canucks games have landed on five goals or fewer so why wouldn't I go Under here? Dallas is the third-worst scoring team in the league and has scored more than three goals once.

Rating: 2 Units

All non-division ROAD teams who scored 25 > pts in each of their last 4 games (PATS), when the OU line is less than 56 points is  16-3-1 O/U L4 years. All NFL favorites of < 6 pts who scored 110 > combined points in their last 3 games (PATS), when the OU line is < 47 points is 9-1 O/U since 2010. In addition all game 14 < NFC home teams vs an AFC opponent )PANTHERS vs PATRIOTS), when the OU Line is LESS than (

Rating: 3 Unit Total of the Day

All teams who scored 22 or less points in each of their last 6 games (HOU) are 7-1 O/U L3 years. The Texans are the worst rushing team in the entire league (only 3.3 yards per rush this year).  All  game 8 > road dogs of > 4 pts who average 3.5 or less yards per rush on the year (HOU), when the OU line is < 48 points is 9-1 O/U L5 years. With both teams on multi-game losing streaks, we’ll close with the fact that all home favorite of 6 > pts when both teams are off 4+ SU losses in a row (MIA / HOU) are 12-2 O/U since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

Non-Conference games are taking center stage in the NFL this week, with more than half of all games (8) featuring a NFC team taking on a AFC opponent. We’ll be Going low in one of those non-conf affairs, specifically the VIKINGS @ RAVENS game... with an OU line around 49.5 points. All Week 8 AFC home favs of > 3 pts (Bal) vs any NFC opponent (Min), when the OU Line is in the range of 40 to 52 points is  0-8-1 O/U L20 years. This will be the 8th game this season between these two particular divisions. And so far, AFC NORTH vs NFC NORTH games have gone 1-7 O/U, with an average of only 39.1 combined PPG. The host Ravens come in well rested after their Bye Week. They’ve had two weeks to ‘stew’ after getting shocked by the Bengals in Week Seven. Finally consider that   All teams AFTER their Bye Week off a SU favorite loss in their previous game (Balt), when the OU line is > 44 points is 5-23-1 O/U since 2012 and 1-10 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 2 Units

All underdogs off a SU loss of 15 > pts (Jacksonville) vs any opponent off a SU win of 15 > pts (Buffalo) is 1-13 O/U last 2 years. Jacksonville allowed 31 points last week while Buffalo allowed only 11 points. All underdogs of 6 > pts after allowing 31 > pts (Jacksonville) vs any opponent who allowed 11 < pts in their previous game (Buffalo), when the OU line is 54 or less points is 1-9 O/U last 2 years: . The clincher: Jacksonville has already gone a perfect 0-5 O/U this season in their non-division games (only 42.4 combined PPG).

Rating: 2 Units

I generally will not do many Under 5.5s but every model out there has this as easily the lowest-scoring game of the night: SportsLine's has it with 4.9 goals. Neither team is great offensively, especially Vancouver, and the Preds are missing one of their best scorers in Filip Forsberg. Canucks netminder Thatcher Demko has a 2.39 GAA at home.

Rating: 2 Units

 I may come back and play Edmonton on the moneyline, but I'm often going to play Under 6 goals and will do so here. The Oilers obviously can score with anyone, but the Rangers aren't a high-scoring team and netminder Igor Shesterkin has been great with a 1.85 GAA. Edmonton's Mikko Koskinen has a 2.18 GAA and has allowed five combined goals in his past three. A few books had this at 6.5 so if you can get that do it for sure (6.5 is where I'll officially play it even if an alt line), but I can't here and I see it moving down already at those other ones.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jets apparently will stick with backup Eric Comrie in net because No. 1 Connor Hellebuyck is sick, but Comrie has been quite solid. Chicago's Marc-Andre Fleury has allowed just one goal in two of his past three. The Hawks are near the bottom in scoring at 2.27 per and remain without top-six forward Tyler Johnson. I was leaning the Jets on the ML, but it's a bit steep at -170 without Hellebuyck so I'll take the shot on the total and believe we will do no worse than a push.

Rating: 2 Units

Second of a back-to-back for Buffalo, which will be without top-line forward Victor Olofsson for a second straight game due to injury. He has five goals and four assists. The Sabres are using backup Dustin Tokarski in net, but he has a 1.92 GAA this year in three appearances. Seattle, meanwhile, is just not a great offensive team -- no surprise as an expansion club -- but netminder Philipp Grubauer is more than capable of blanking short-handed Buffalo. He has a 1.77 GAA at home. 

The Under is pretty juiced here at -135 (we won't see a total of 5, though) but these are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the NHL. The Habs we understand because they have been obliterated by injury and another key forward, Jonathan Drouin, will not play here. He took a puck to the head Tuesday and has seven points on the season. Montreal netminder Jake Allen comes off a shutout and has been better at home in 2021. Isles goaltender Ilya Sorokin has a 2.26 GAA on the season.

Rating: 2 Units

San Jose has fallen off quite a bit offensively of late with six goals in its past four games. Sabres goaltender Craig Anderson is off to the best start of his career with a 1.98 GAA. Offensively, Buffalo is without three of its top centers due to injury. This has 3-2 written all over it.

Rating: 2 Units

Vegas is absolutely gutted by injuries at forward so I don't see how the Knights are scoring more than maybe two goals in Toronto. The Leafs, meanwhile, really haven't gotten going yet scoring wise in averaging 2.33 goals and Auston Matthews with only one. Again, we may push here but hard to see seven goals. The Under is 10-3-2 in Maple Leafs' last 15 games following a win.

Rating: 2 Units

 Montreal is averaging just 1.90 goals per game and almost every good offensive player the Habs have is either out tonight or a game-time call. The Wings have been solid offensively so far but two of their leading scorers, Todd Bertuzzi and Dylan Larkin, will miss this one. As it is Canadiens goaltender Jake Allen held Detroit to one goal on Oct. 23, also in Montreal. How about a 2-2 game at the end of 60 minutes?

Rating: 3 Unit Inter-Conference Total of the Week

This week’s Primetime ‘bookend’ concludes with the Monday Nighter, as the reeling KC Chiefs host the Giants in  Kansas City. It’s an ideal time to go low... with the Chiefs currently in an offensive funk... and taking on one of our favorite ‘Under’ teams in the G-Men (Giants: 1-9 O/U L2Y in non-div games w/ an OU of > 43 pts). At last look, KC was favored by 10 pts with an OU line of 52. Consider that Monday Night double-digit non-division home favorites (Chiefs) have gone 5-23-1 O/U (and 0-7 O/U In L5 years) when the OU line is 54 or less points.

Rating: 2 Units

 Chicago is near the bottom of the NHL in goals at 1.89 per game but will get star Patrick Kane back from COVID protocols tonight. Not sure that will help all that much as he can't be 100 percent with so much time away from the club. Hawks netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has been terrible but comes off his best outing Saturday in St. Louis so maybe he figured something out. Ottawa gets back its No. 1 goaltender in Matt Murray. He was very good in his two starts before the injury. I really have a hard time seeing seven goals scored in this one to lose, but we might push.

Rating: 2 Units

Two meh offensive teams both missing at least one top forward due to injury. Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin has a 1.81 goals-against average and .944 save percentage, while Seattle counterpart Philipp Grubauer has been terrific in back-to-back starts.

Rating: 3 Unit NFC Total of the Day

We’re certainly aware that Dallas is on a very hot 4-game SU, ATS, and ‘OVER’ streak in a row. the sample size is small, but significant: NFL road teams (DAL) off 4+ SUATS wins and 4+ ‘OVERS’ have gone 6-0-1 O/U since 2004 when the OU line is < 57 points. With amazing offensive point totals of 35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 games, our next query tells us that, Non-Division teams who scored 35 > pts in each of their last 4 games (DALLAS) have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U since 2000 when the OU line is 46 > points.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have been putting runners on base and threatening the over the past couple games, but they just haven’t been able to get that big hit. Both bullpens have been really good, but this is the third game in a row so everyone’s gonna be pretty sore at this point. However, I think one of these lineups will be shut down but I am not sure which. Valdez struggled in his first outing, but I think he will be much better the second time around. I could see a lot of hits like yesterday but the score staying low because it’s an elimination game. I could see a 5-2, 6-2 finish but I think one of these offenses gets shut down.

Rating: 2 Units

The Devils have scored 18 goals in 6 games and allowed just 17 goals. The Blue Jackets have allowed 19 goals in 7 games and allowed just 19. Both these teams play defense first, and neither team scores much. Jack Hughes is still out and neither team really has that star power. Elvis Merzlikins has been hot to start the season, so although the Devils have questions at goalie, I think the Blue Jackets defense could still keep this under.

Rating: 2 Units

The OU line opened at 48 points, and has been bet down to 46.5 to 46.0. With Christian McCaffrey out for the Panthers, they’re pretty much lost on offense these days (only 20.9 ppg this year). When you only manage three points against the league’s #30 scoring defense (NY Giants), you’re in real trouble. But they still playing great defense, allowing only 307 yards per game and less than 21 points per game. So we’ll go with the flow, as this Carolina / Atlanta series has gone 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings.

Rating: 3 Unit AFC Total of the Week

The fact that Cincy is a huge road favorite plays right into our hands, as NFL road favs of 9 > pts (Cin) have gone 73% under since 2011 (17-47-2 O/U), when the OU line is 41 > pts. Yes, we’re aware that the Bengals just scored 41 points against the Ravens last week. All ROAD teams who scored 40+ pts on the division road the previous week (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years. This will be Cincy’s 3rd straight road game in a row. Consider that all teams in 3rd straight road game after allowing 17 < pts in last two games (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 2 Units

I don't believe that Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is going to play with a knee injury, and that obviously massively downgrades Denver offensively. The team is struggling to score as it is -- both the Mavs and Nugs are in the bottom 10 in scoring but Top 10 in scoring defense. If/when Jokic is ruled out, I may come back and take Dallas ATS, although it is in the second of a B2B so not a lock I will do so.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's hit the Under between two bad offensive teams in the Sens, who average 2.50 goals per game (skewed by 5 in one) and the Stars, who average just 1.86 and have not topped 3. How about a 2-2 tie at the end of regulation? Works for me. The Under is 7-0 in the Stars past seven overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Both these goalies have been dominant to start the season and neither team has allowed or scored more than 20 goals yet this season. The Rangers have allowed 18 goals in 7 games while scoring just 15 goals, and the Blue Jackets have allowed just 15 goals in 6 games and scored 19. Defense has been a focus for both these teams early this season and with the strong goalie play between these teams, I like the under.

Rating: 2 Units

Both these teams haven’t been scoring much this season, and both these teams have had very good goaltender play so far. The Ducks have only allowed 20 goals in 7 games and they have only scored 24 goals. The Sabres have allowed just 11 goals in 6 games, and they have scored just 19. This should be a low scoring game, so I will go with the under.