Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-23 | Clippers -155 v. Knicks | 134-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I do not have any interest in backing New York right now, as the Knicks have been extremely inconsistent and overvalued in the betting market. They have only covered the spread three times in their last nine games, and they have gone 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 home games. Los Angeles is going to be undervalued after losing a game to Milwaukee that it clearly should have won. The Clippers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games, including five of their last six road games. They are a different team with George back on the court, but the market has not fully accounted for that, which has made them a profitable option. |
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02-04-23 | Lakers -113 v. Pelicans | 126-131 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I will be riding with the Los Angeles Lakers in this game. Los Angeles has been trending in the correct direction, as they are (6-4) in their last 10 and they've won two straight. They also have James and Davis back on the floor, as this has been a huge boost for their team. Now, the Pelicans have continued to slide. They are (0-10) in their last 10 and they don't seem to be warming up. The Lakers will dominate on the offensive end of the court, as they are scoring the sixth most points per game and they have the ninth-highest team shooting percentage. The Pelicans will allow them to find consistent open shots throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. New Orleans has also struggled on the offensive end of the court, as they won't score enough points to cover this spread. The Lakers have been great at defending the perimeter and the Pelicans just haven't looked good enough for me to trust them. |
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02-03-23 | Magic +5 v. Wolves | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota enters after looking to avenge a same season-defeat to Golden State (5-10 SUATS post Warrior workouts) with yet another same-season avenger on tap with Denver. After checking off all the boxes, consider that Orlando is 20-8 SUATS in this series, including 8-0 ATS when seeking same-season revenge. |
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02-03-23 | 76ers -9.5 v. Spurs | 137-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I know this spread is massive, but I am going to take the 76ers on the road. The Spurs are (1-9) in their last 10 games and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They won't be able to stop the Sixers, as Philadelphia will slowly pull away throughout this game. The Spurs are currently allowing the most points per game and they have the highest adjusted defensive rating. Philadelphia will be able to score from anywhere on the floor, as they are averaging the 13th most points per game and they have the third-highest three-point shooting percentage. Philadelphia also has the 10th highest adjusted offensive rating and they are (8-2) in their last 10 games played. Now, the Spurs won't be able to consistently score either, as the 76ers have the seventh-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the fourth least amount of points per game. They will contest shots near the rim and on the outside, as the Spurs won't score enough points to cover this spread. |
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02-03-23 | Suns v. Celtics -9.5 | 106-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I might be interested in backing Phoenix once Booker returns next week, but I am going to stay away from the Suns on Friday night. They are coming off one of their worst performances of the season, getting blown out by Atlanta in a game where they never competed. Phoenix is now having to go on the road for just the second time in the last two weeks to face a Boston team that is coming off a spectacular showing. The Celtics had everything working in their win over the Nets, and they are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Phoenix simply does not have the firepower necessary to hang with Boston right now. |
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02-03-23 | Hornets v. Pistons -110 | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have been turnstiles on the defensive end of the floor this season. The Hornets are playing the second game of a back-to-back set here. They’ve been brutal on the road this season and they haven’t had much in the way of success in back-to-backs this year. Detroit has their own issues as injuries have taken a toll on them this season, as will the stress of the travel issues that led to the postponement of Wednesday’s contest. With that said, the Pistons do have a rest advantage going for them and they are at home. Given how poor the Hornets have looked as the visiting team this season, you have to give the slight edge to Detroit in this contest. |
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02-01-23 | Thunder -5 v. Rockets | 106-112 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the type of game that the Thunder have to win if they truly want to compete for a play-in spot -- or more. They are on the road facing a lesser team and that lesser team is banged up with some key players questionable. It helps that they have the two best players on the floor in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, while Houston may be missing their two best players -- Green and Alperen. Also, the Thunder have been great against the spread, going 31-18-1 against the number this season. Houston, on the other hand, is just 20-29-1 against the spread. Take Oklahoma City here to cover. |
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02-01-23 | Nets v. Celtics -9 | 96-139 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston is the better offensive team in this matchup and I don't think these two teams are even when Kevin Durant isn't on the floor. Boston is also (5-0) ATS in their last five meetings overall, as they will be looking to dominate again in this game. The Boston offense is also extremely tough to beat, as they have the third-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the third most points per game. Tatum and Jaylen Brown are tough to stop and they have multiple key players that can come off the bench and contribute as well. Brooklyn is still dealing with injuries and I don't see Irving carrying his team to victory in this one. Boston also has the fifth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the floor. They will pressure the Nets consistently throughout this game and keep them from scoring enough points to cover the spread. |
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01-31-23 | Heat +6 v. Cavs | 100-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The young guns from Cleveland host a team that has been a thorn in their side, only tonight they’ll be laying points to the angry visitors from Miami. It’s a sketchy setting for the Cavs who hosted the Clippers here on Sunday knowing they are just 3-13 SUATS in games after facing the Clips, including 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in the last five such occurrences. The Heat take the floor sporting a 12-5 SUATS mark in this series, including 4-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season defeat (they lost 113-87 here in their last matchup in November). One thing for certain, though, Is points figure to be at a premium in this matchup of the Association’s two top-ranked teams in scoring defense. Consider that Miami is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS as a road dog from Game 28 out with Eric Spoelstra when seeking revenge from a same-season loss of 25 or more points, including 6-1 ATS against winning foes. |
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01-30-23 | Pistons v. Mavs -8 | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Detroit Pistons continue to struggle to win games as they are playing without their young star Cade Cunningham who is out for the remainder of the season. The Pistons have lost eight out of their last ten games including a home loss to Houston in their previous action. Many of these have been ugly losses. Six of the eight losses in that span were by double-digits. The Mavericks have enough depth even if Doncic and Wood don’t play. Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They have squandered an average of 129 points in their last four games. This is not a good sign considering Dallas is averaging 113.3 points per 100 possessions, good for seventh in the NBA. |
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01-30-23 | Warriors v. Thunder +5.5 | 128-120 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have been great on the defensive end of the court as of late and they are (7-3) overall in their last 10 games played. The Warriors are also (6-18) on the road this season, as I don't see them staying hot in this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 20th-highest adjusted offensive rating and the Thunder have the seventh-lowest adjusted defensive rating. They are also holding their opponents to the sixth-lowest shooting percentage from the field, as they will get just enough stops to cover this spread. OKC has also shown that they can consistently put the ball in the basket. The Warriors have not been good defensively this season, as they are allowing the 26th most points per game and the 18th lowest three-point shooting percentage. The Thunder will find open shots throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. They are scoring the sixth most points per game and they have been hot as of late. |
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01-30-23 | Kings v. Wolves +100 | 118-111 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves have won three in a row and five of the last six. They handled the Memphis Grizzlies and Kings, two of the top teams in the West, to open a six-game homestand during which the reigning NBA champs (Golden State) and current No. 1 team in the West (Denver) also will be visiting. The Kings, whose current .563 winning percentage is nearly 200 points higher than last year's .366, have stumbled lately, losing three of four. Saturday's loss to the Timberwolves was the opener of their longest trip of the season -- a seven-game excursion that will take them to San Antonio, Indian, New Orleans and two in Houston. Sacramento had won its previous three road outings before arriving in Minneapolis. Consider that the Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record while the Kings are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. |
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01-30-23 | Lakers +9 v. Nets | 104-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles is going to be very motivated coming into this game following its emotional loss to Boston on Saturday night. The Lakers should have had a pair of free throws to win the game in the final seconds, and they were still able to cover the spread as 7.5-point underdogs. They are also underrated in the betting market right now due to Davis’s return, as he is clearly more impactful than the odds are accounting for. Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of its last five games, and it has gone 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games. Brooklyn is relying almost completely on Irving to win games right now, which has led to the Nets going 3-6 in their nine games since Durant’s injury. |
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01-29-23 | Clippers v. Cavs -6.5 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Clips enter off a same-season avenger of their own at Atlanta last night and given the fact that they are 5-15 SU and 6-14 ATS in games on the North coast, including 0-4 ATS when the Cavs are looking to settle up from an earlier season loss of fewer than 20 points in this series. With Los Angeles just 4-9-1 ATS in non-conference clashes on Sundays, and Cleveland 9-2 ATS on the first day of the week, look for a Cavs’ assault this evening. |
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01-29-23 | Heat v. Hornets +6.5 | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Charlotte Hornets could just stay whole for an extended period, they might be onto something. The lineup could be close to that when the Miami Heat visit for Sunday afternoon's game in Charlotte, N.C. The Hornets had LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward back in action Thursday night in a 111-96 victory against the visiting Chicago Bulls. Both players missed the previous games -- Ball sitting out three and Hayward the past two. Consider that the Heat are 9-20-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up win. |
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01-28-23 | Kings v. Wolves +2.5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota is scoring an average of 115.2 points per game and shooting 49.2% overall despite not having their second leading scorer Karl-Anthony Towns, who scores an average of 20.8 points per game. Minnesota has covered the spread in four of its last five games overall and in eight of the last 11 games when playing against an opponent from the Western Conference. The Kings will be playing their first game of an eight-game road trip on Saturday. Although Sacramento is leading the NBA in scoring, the Kings are also giving up plenty of points allowing an average of 116.6 points per game and 48.8% field goal shooting, which plays do the strength of the Timberwolves, who have a field goal shooting percentage of 49.2% which is fourth best in the NBA. |
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01-28-23 | Suns v. Spurs +6 | 128-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Spurs are 6-1-1 ATS with same-season revenge from a loss of 20-plus points in this series. That fits like a glove next to the Suns’ spotty 2-8-2 ATS record when facing foes they beat by more than 36 points earlier in the season. A quick check of each team’s body of work this season shows Phoenix flattening out on a 10-19 run at press time, after beginning the season 15-6. On the flip side, San Antonio put a halt to a 6-18 SU and 9-15 ATS beginning to this campaign as they’ve improved since, going 8-16 SU and 15-10 ATS. Finally consider that San Antonio is 5-0 ATS with revenge from a same-season defeat of more than 30 points under Greg Popovich when coming off a win or a loss of 5 or fewer points in its last game. |
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01-28-23 | Nuggets v. 76ers -160 | 119-126 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great battle between two of the top three teams in the NBA. These are two solid offensive clubs, would Denver averaging nearly two points more per game, while Philadelphia is allowing nearly two points fewer per contest. Both are solid shooting clubs, but Philadelphia has a huge edge at the free-throw line. The 76ers are hitting 83.0% of their free-throw attempts while Denver is at 74.3%. In a game that is expected to be close, that will be a key factor in the contest. One also has to like how hot Philadelphia is. While they have not been great at home of late, they are still on fire. Denver has some key injuries and will not know exactly what to expect out of Jokic. |
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01-27-23 | Cavs v. Thunder | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oklahoma City Thunder are entering this game with a scoring advantage over the Cavaliers, considering Cleveland's top scorer is looking to be out in Friday's matchup. Mitchell did not play for the Cavs in Thursday's contest against the Rockets and looks to be out again on Friday. Without Mitchell on the court, the Thunder will have one less weapon to worry about. In addition, Oklahoma City has really heated things up offensively since facing Cleveland in early December, especially with how explosive Gilgeous-Alexander has been. The 6-foot-6-inch point guard is averaging 30.8 points per game ranking him 5th in the NBA. He has three consecutive games scoring 30 or more points, so look for him to earn his fourth straight 30+ point game. In his last game, he earned 36 points after shooting 59.1% from the floor and 100% from beyond the arc. With his offensive talent and the Cavs likely being without Mitchell, take the Thunder. |
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01-27-23 | Grizzlies -147 v. Wolves | 100-111 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis has the look and feel of a genuine threat to win the West as they rank No. 2 in Points Differential, No. 4 in Overall Rebounding, and No. 5 in Overall Scoring. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in off a double revenge rumble with New Orleans with a 13-point revenger on tap with Sacramento. That puts the Grizz in an ideal revenge sandwich. Perhaps the most mind boggling stat, though, is Minny’s not-so mighty 9-188 ATS mark – yes, you read that right – at home in games it loses outright to an avenging foe. And finally, if history is your thing then you’ll love that Memphis is 19-8 SUATS overall in this series, including 5-0 SUATS when seeking revenge from a same-season loss of 5 or more points. |
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01-26-23 | Cavs -7.5 v. Rockets | 113-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers come into this matchup looking to improve their sub .500 road record. Cleveland should be able to take advantage of the sloppy Rockets offense and turn turnovers into points. While Mitchell could possibly miss this contest, Darius Garland should have his way with a Rockets team playing without their starting point guard. The Cavaliers #1 rated scoring defense will be able to hamper a Rockets team that is far from efficient on the offensive end and ranked last in field goal percentage overall. Cleveland will ride the the strength of Garland on the perimeter and Allen will hold his own on the interior against a young Rockets front line. In addition, the Rockets are just 1-6 this season in the second game of back-to-backs. |
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01-25-23 | Spurs v. Lakers -6.5 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs’ defense has been a joke so far this season. San Antonio has allowed 131 or more points in five of its last six outings which tells you a lot about the Spurs’ current form. Hereof, I would take the Lakers to cover even if LeBron James hit the sidelines. Both Thomas Bryant and Dennis Schroder have played well of late, and the Lakers should have enough weapons to deal with the slumping Spurs who lack talent everywhere. The Lakers are 3-0 SU and ATS in their previous three encounters with the Spurs in 2022-23. |
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01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -160 | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies could possibly be without Morant and Adams, as I see both of them being huge losses to this team. Golden State is also (17-6) at home this season, as they have been a completely different team inside the Chase Center. I also see them being able to consistently score against this tough Grizzlies defense. The Warriors are scoring the third most points per game and they have the fifth-highest team three-point shooting percentage. They will get hot from deep and slowly pull away throughout this game. The Grizzlies have also struggled to consistently knock down shots from the floor, as they only have the 19th-highest team shooting percentage and the 21st highest three-point shooting percentage. They will go cold at different points in this game and the Warriors will slowly pull away. These two teams do not like each other and I expect Steph and Klay to be hyped up for this one. |
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01-25-23 | Nuggets v. Bucks -8 | 99-107 | Push | 0 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets are banged up right now and I don't see them being healthy enough to cover the spread in this game. Denver has also struggled on the defensive end of the court, as they will allow the Bucks to consistently score throughout this game. Denver is allowing the 13th least amount of points per game, but they only have the 16th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 23rd-lowest shooting percentage from the field. The Bucks will be able to attack the basket and score enough points to cover this spread. Now, the Nuggets have been elite offensively this season, but if Jokic and MPJ don't play, they will be in huge trouble. The Nuggets look like a completely different team on offense without Jokic on the floor, as this could really hurt them in this game. Milwaukee is also elite on defense, as they are holding their opponents to the sixth least amount of points per game and they have the third lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will get consistent stops throughout and dominate at home. |
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01-25-23 | Nets v. 76ers -5 | 133-137 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are potentially missing pieces with Durant out for Brooklyn while it’s uncertain whether Embiid and/or Harden will take the floor for Philadelphia here. The Nets won their last two games but it could be tough dealing with a Philadelphia team that had a perfect 5-0 road trip as they took down Utah, the Lakers, Portland, Sacramento and the Clippers. Philadelphia is at home, where they are 17-7 on the season, and they have an extra day of rest in their pocket here. While the Nets are on a roll, the fact remains that Irving has had to shoulder a massive load recently, especially without Durant. Philadelphia has a deep rotation and if at least one of the Embiid/Harden duo takes the floor, they are in good shape. Take the 76ers in this contest. |
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01-24-23 | Clippers v. Lakers +5 | 133-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have owned the Lakers as of late, going 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their previous nine encounters. You won’t have a dilemma if you like to follow H2H betting trends. The Clippers are arguably a better defensive team than the Lakers, but I think Purple-and-Gold will be able to keep it close in this game. LeBron James has been unstoppable in the last few weeks, while both Dennis Schroder and Thomas Bryant are doing a great job for the Lakers. Purple-and-Gold have won three of their last four games and are 4-1 ATS in their previous five outings at any location. On the other side, the Clippers are just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. |
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01-24-23 | Hornets v. Suns -6.5 | 97-128 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to pick the Phoenix Suns at home and I am going to lay the points (-6.5). Ayton is currently listed as questionable, but I am hoping he plays, as he is listed as questionable with an illness. The Hornets have also been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, as they have struggled on the defensive end of the court. They won't be able to stop the Suns consistently throughout this game, which will allow them to slowly pull away. Charlotte currently has the 27th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are surrendering the 28th least amount of points per game. The Hornets are also (8-18) on the road this season, as I don't see them showing up for this game. The Suns will be able to find different ways to score on them and they are also better on the defensive end. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Suns have the 11th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the eighth least amount of points per game. The Hornets could also be without LaMelo Ball in this game, as I don't see them scoring enough points to cover this spread. |
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01-24-23 | Bulls -125 v. Pacers | 110-116 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don’t think I can back Indiana until Haliburton is back in the lineup, as the Pacers have looked like a completely different team without him on the court. They have not only lost seven consecutive games, but they have only covered the spread once during that stretch. Their losing skid has almost entirely coincided with Haliburton’s injury, so I am looking to stay away from the Pacers. This is also not the worst scheduling spot for Chicago, even though it is the second leg of a back-to-back. The Bulls had four days off following their trip to Paris, giving them a rested roster heading into this two-game stretch. |
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01-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Suns +10 | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to take the contrarian position on the Suns in this matchup. They should at least get several players back on Sunday, as most of their key players were sidelined on Saturday. Their injury situation has left them undervalued in the betting market, and they have gone 16-7 at home this season. Memphis is coming off its most emotional game of the season, which makes this a trap game on the schedule. The Grizzlies have only covered the spread at an 8-13-1 clip away from home this season. |
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01-22-23 | Knicks v. Raptors | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have dropped three straight after losing 139-124 to the host Atlanta Hawks on Friday. The Hawks opened the fourth quarter on a 20-4 surge as the Knicks showed how much they missed center Mitchell Robinson, who had thumb surgery on Thursday. Consider that the Knicks are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Toronto and 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
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01-22-23 | Clippers v. Mavs -120 | 112-98 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units LA put up a big offensive showing against the Spurs but you aren’t going to win a lot of games when you let the opposition shoot 57.3% from the floor. The Clippers are next to last in the league in putting points on the board and they have a tough task dealing with a Dallas team that is pretty stout defensively. We saw the Mavericks completely stifle the Heat on Friday night and they should be able to keep LA in check on that end of the floor. Dallas has some work to do in getting competent secondary scoring behind Doncic but facing a LA team that has struggled to score is beneficial for them. Give the Mavericks the upper hand at home as they make it two straight wins. |
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01-21-23 | 76ers v. Kings +2 | 129-127 | Push | 0 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sacramento Kings are one of the NBA's top surprises and are making a solid run at ending a 16-season playoff drought. The Kings get another chance to prove they are for real tonight when they host the powerful Philadelphia 76ers. Sacramento will be attempting to match its season-best winning streak of seven games. The Kings also will be aiming to snap an eight-game skid against the 76ers. Sacramento's last win in the series was a 115-108 home decision on Feb. 2, 2019. De'Aaron Fox is the only current Kings' player to participate in that game. Consider that the 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. |
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01-21-23 | Pacers v. Suns -5 | 107-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers have lost five straight games and their last five road games. Despite their slump, they continue to play well offensively, scoring more than 112 points per game on the road. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Suns and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road and turned it over more than 20 times per game in their last three games, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Suns, who average more than six steals per game at home. The Suns have struggled defensively this season, but they play better at home where they are holding opponents under 110 points per game, so expect the Pacers to struggle offensively in this game. The Suns also struggled in recent games, but they have played well at home. Even though Devin Booker has been sidelined with a groin injury, they continue to play well offensively, especially at home where they are scoring more than 114 points per game. They are very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball at home and won’t give the Pacers a lot of easy-scoring chances. The Pacers have struggled defensively on the road where they are giving up close to 120 points per game and they’re playing on consecutive nights, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Suns in this game. Go with Phoenix to cover the spread. |
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01-21-23 | Hornets v. Hawks -7 | 122-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even if Young doesn't play in this game, I still see the Hawks covering this spread. They are the better offensive team and the Hornets have continued to struggle this season. They are also extremely banged up and they could be without LaMelo Ball in this game. Charlotte has also been awful on the defensive end of the court this season, as I don't see them getting enough stops to cover the spread. They are currently allowing the third most points per game and they have held their opponents to the 26th-lowest shooting percentage from the floor. Atalanta is scoring the 10th most points per game and they are (6-4) in their last 10 games played. They are playing solid basketball right now and they have enough talent on their roster to outplay the Hornets at home. Charlotte has also struggled offensively, as I don't trust them to score enough points to cover this spread. They have the third-lowest adjusted offensive rating and the lowest three-point shooting percentage as a team. They will stay cold in this game and the Hawks will slowly pull away. |
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01-20-23 | Nets v. Jazz -6.5 | 117-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz have won four of their last five games and three of their last four home games. They are playing well offensively, especially at home where they are scoring more than 120 points per game while making over 48 percent of their shots. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 11 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Nets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Nets have struggled defensively on the road and they’re playing on consecutive nights, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Jazz in this game. The Nets have lost four of their last six games and they split their last four road games. They usually play well offensively, but they’ve struggled with Kevin Durant out of the lineup and scored less than 100 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Jazz and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against them. They were also careless with the ball in their last three games, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Jazz, who average more than six steals per game at home. Even though the Jazz have struggled defensively, they played well in recent home games, holding two of their last three opponents under 110 points per game at home, so expect them to keep Brooklyn’s offense in check. Go with Utah to cover the spread. |
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01-20-23 | Pacers v. Nuggets -11 | 111-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm not thrilled with the line due to the open possibilities of a garbage time back door cover, but that's Indiana's best chance in this one. The Nuggets are on a roll since the New Year, which includes having beaten Boston by 12, the Clippers by 31, the Cavaliers and Lakers by 13, the Suns by 29, and the Clippers again by 12 points. Indiana has lost its last three games by 13 points or more, and without Haliburton, I can't trust them to compete in this one. |
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01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | 131-126 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is an excellent spot to back a Los Angeles team that I believe is undervalued right now due to George’s injury. He has only returned for one game, but he has had multiple days to rest since playing that game, so he should be good to go for a solid workload on Friday night. The Clippers are desperate to get back in the win column, and having their leading scorer drastically changes their outlook. They have been an outstanding defensive team all year, so having George and Leonard offensively makes them a much more dangerous team. San Antonio is the worst defensive team in the NBA, making this a perfect get-right game for the Clippers, who have won and covered the spread in five of the last seven meeting between these teams. |
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01-20-23 | Pelicans v. Magic +2.5 | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New Orleans Pelicans have not been at their best recently. They have been decimated with key injuries and the losses are starting to pile on. They have now dropped seven of their last ten games and are playing without scoring leader Zion Williamson along with Brandon Ingram. The Magic have been solid on their home floor where they have won six of their last nine games. The Pelicans are struggling on the road, dropping five of their last seven road bouts. The Magic' defense is their top strength and they should contain a Pelicans team that has only scored 103 and 98 points respectively in their last two games. The Magic have been efficient, connecting on at least 49% of their field goals in two of their last three games. |
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01-19-23 | Warriors v. Celtics -6.5 | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are on a roll. They have been the most consistent team in the NBA and have been a force at home. The Warriors have been up and down and struggled at home all season. Boston has the revenge factor on its side after losing in last season's finals and from being smack in the Bay last month. Considering how this season has gone, this should be a double-digit Celtics win. Although the Dubs should be motivated for this one, they have not fared against good Eastern Conference teams this season when on the road, including a 17-point loss to the Bucks and a 12-point loss to the 76ers. I also don't see the Warriors fixing their recent defensive issues overnight. I have to back Boston here. |
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01-18-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -8 | 118-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Keep tracking the injury report, and if Rudy Gobert doesn’t suit up, take the Nuggets to cover. Although Denver plays on the second night of a back-to-back, the Nuggets will dominate the Timberwolves in the paint if Gobert hits the sidelines. Also, the Timberwolves are struggling to defend the 3-point line which is a huge issue when you take on the Nuggets. Denver is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four meetings with Minnesota, and the Nuggets will be fired up to snap their skid. Two weeks ago, the Timberwolves beat the Nuggets 124-111 as 4-point home underdogs, and Gobert played solid defense on Nikola Jokic, who went 10-for-20 from the field. Jokic is scoring 22.8 points per game on 62.5% shooting from the field over his last nine appearances. |
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01-18-23 | Wizards v. Knicks -6 | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Beal's status is still questionable. Even if he plays, he should be limited with minutes. The bigger issue for Washington is its lack of rebounding. That showed against the Warriors because while Porzingis is 7-3, he doesn't move that well and he shoots a lot of three-pointers. That takes him away from the basket, so offensive rebounding isn't his thing. Robinson can also defend the paint and keep Porizingis from going off in the paint or on perimeter. Kyle Kuzma had 40 points on Friday and the Knicks will make sure that doesn't happen again. |
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01-17-23 | Raptors v. Bucks -175 | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Bucks ML, as they are the better defensive team in this matchup, as the Raptors won't be able to score enough points to cover this spread on the road. The Bucks are currently (16-5) at home this season and they have the third-lowest adjusted defensive rating, according to dunksandthrees.com. Neither of these teams has impressed me on the offensive end of the court this season, but the Bucks have consistently shown up defensively. Yes, Milwaukee could be without Antetokounmpo, but I still see them winning this game. They are surrendering the sixth least amount of points per game and they are holding their opponents to the third-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will contest shots near the rim and on the perimeter, as the Raptors won't score enough to stay competitive in this game. Toronto is only scoring the 24th most points per game and they have the second-lowest shooting percentage from the field. The Milwaukee pressure will make it tough for the Raptors to score, as I see them slowly falling behind in this game. |
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01-16-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 132-140 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams play on Sunday so that would definitely seem to favor Los Angeles. However, the Lakers did not need much to be favored in this game. Houston is a terrible team, not only losing nine straight games entering Sunday’s contest but has lost 14 of their last 15 games. They will be the underdog against just about anybody this season. |
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01-16-23 | Suns v. Grizzlies -10.5 | 106-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Considering that Phoenix won the last time these teams met, one would be inclined to lean toward the Suns. But it is time to be real. There is a reason why Memphis is on this long winning streak. The team is getting spectacular play across the board, especially from Morant, who is shooting 46.6% percent, averaging 27.4 points per game. Phoenix is just not the same without Paul. He is the guy that gets this team going, and his absence against a hot Memphis team is not a recipe for success. Look for the Grizzlies to wear down the Suns on their way to victory. |
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01-16-23 | Jazz v. Wolves -130 | 126-125 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz will likely play without Olynyk, who re-injured his ankle against Memphis on Jan. 8. Sexton should play after sitting out the last game for injury management. Markkanen didn't play versus Philly, and it's unclear if he's healthy enough to suit up on Monday. Gobert missed the second half of Minnesota's last game, which seems serious enough to expect he won't play on Monday. Even if he does, it's likely his minutes would be restricted. With that said, I'm riding with the home team to cover the spread. Minnesota has been playing much better as of late, beating Cleveland, Phoenix, and Denver. Edwards has been a force to be reckoned with, carrying the T-Wolves with Towns sidelined. Minnesota's bench also proved it could be a factor last game, picking up the slack with Gobert and McDaniels out. |
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01-15-23 | 76ers v. Lakers +3.5 | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers started a five-game road trip on Saturday and will have to deal with fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back. Hereof, I’m going with the Lakers whose last three home defeats have come by exactly four points. The Lakers have played well over the last couple of weeks, and I think they will keep it close against the Sixers. Philadelphia has dropped five of its previous eight road contests excluding that Saturday night game against the Utah Jazz. The Sixers are only 1-5 ATS in their last six showings on the road when favored by four or more points. |
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01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -4 | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn is currently holding their opponents to the fifth least amount of points scored per game and the fourth-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will contest shots near the rim and on the perimeter and slowly pull away throughout this game. OKC will struggle to find consistent open shots throughout this game and they won't cash in enough to keep this game within five points. The Thunder also struggle on the defensive end of the court, as they are surrendering the 22nd most points per game. The Nets have a ton of talent littered throughout their roster, as they will be able to make just enough plays to cover this spread. The Nets have the highest team shooting percentage and they have multiple players that can light up the scoreboard from deep. They will find open shots consistently throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. |
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01-14-23 | Hawks v. Raptors -6.5 | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks have continued to struggle over the last week, as they are currently (3-7) in their last 10 games played. They aren't playing good basketball right now and I don't see them showing up on the road. I also see the Raptors having the advantage on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they have the 13th-highest adjusted offensive rating. Siakam has been playing like a man on a mission, as I see Toronto scoring just enough points to cover this spread. The Hawks have been unimpressive on the defensive end of the court, as they are surrendering the 22nd most points per game and they have struggled to defend the paint. The Raptors will continue to attack the basket and score enough points to cover this spread at home. |
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01-13-23 | Magic v. Jazz -5.5 | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah offense is one of the most explosive and dominant offenses in the NBA this season, averaging 117.5 points per game (3rd). With Markkanen being consistent scoring-wise and on the boards, the Jazz has someone they can rely on. In addition, Clarkson has been hot and is coming off a 32-point game. With these two scorers, the Magic will really need to do something special to slow them down but that will be difficult with the amount of talent Utah has when moving the ball around and shooting. Orlando relies on Banchero (21.2) and Wagner (20.2) to put points on the board but other than them the Magic don't have much scoring talent. Expect the Utah defense to contain Banchero and prevent Orlando from scoring a lot. |
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01-13-23 | Knicks -180 v. Wizards | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks are entering this matchup with a healthy squad while the Wizards are entering with some injured players. This will be a pretty big advantage for the Knicks, considering the Wizards will now likely need to put in less experienced players. Less experienced players against the Knicks will allow the Knicks' offense to be more explosive in the paint and on the boards. In addition, the Knicks have been playing strong basketball lately, winning four of their last five contests. A win against the Wizards will extend their win streak to two games. With injuries starting to infect the Wizards, I expect the Knicks to do what they do best and score. Defensively, they are conceding 111 points per game, so expect the defensive side of the ball to be pretty competitive as the Washington offense is averaging 111.8 points per game. |
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01-10-23 | Mavs v. Clippers -120 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers are defending the 3-point line very well, and I think they have enough firepower to outlast the Mavericks even if Paul George remains on the sidelines. Kawhi Leonard is slowly building up his form, scoring 20-plus points in three of his last four appearances, while Ivica Zubac should dominate the Mavs in the paint. Dallas will be in trouble if Luka Doncic misses his second straight game. The Mavs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 1-5 ATS in their previous six outings on the road. The Clippers haven’t covered in five straight games, but they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Mavericks. |
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01-10-23 | Cavs -145 v. Jazz | 114-116 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland comes into Utah having won four of its last five games, including two wins over the Phoenix Suns. Jan. 2 proved a historic night for Mitchell, who sparked the Cavaliers to an overtime win over Chicago by scoring 71 points, with 11 assists and eight rebounds. Mitchell scored 23 points and sat out the fourth quarter of a 122-99 win over Utah in his first game against former team in Cleveland on Dec. 19. Consider that the Cavaliers are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a ATS win. |
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01-10-23 | Thunder v. Heat -175 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oklahoma City Thunder are on the road where not only do they have trouble winning, they are rarely covering on the road. They are 0-5 in their last five road clashes and covered in just one of them. Miami is playing well, having won five out of their last eight games. While Thunder are scoring a ton of points, they still only rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging only 1.5 more points per 100 possession than Miami. When it comes to defense, Miami has the better numbers. The Heat have allowed an average of only 103 points in their last four games and I expect their defense to be the difference here. The Heat earned a road win against the Thunder in the lone meeting last month. |
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01-08-23 | Mavs v. Thunder -160 | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder won two of their last three games and three of their last four home games. They have been on a roll offensively in recent games, scoring more than 130 points per game while making over 50 percent of their shots and 46 percent of their three-pointers. They are very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities, and they also cut back on their turnovers and won’t give the Mavericks a lot of easy scoring opportunities. The Mavericks have struggled defensively on the road and they aren’t playing well at the moment, giving up more than 118 points per game in their last three games. They are also playing on consecutive nights and will be dealing with fatigue, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Thunder in this game. |
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01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6.5 | 115-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is 17-3 inside their arena this season, as I don't believe the Magic have enough talent to cover this spread on the road. Golden State is currently scoring the fifth most points per game and they have the sixth-highest three-point shooting percentage. They will find open shots consistently throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. Orlando is not a great team, as they are only scoring the 27th most points per game and they have the 25th lowest adjusted offensive rating, according to dunksandthrees.com. They will struggle to put the ball in the basket and the Warriors will slowly pull away. Golden State is also holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the field, as they will continue to contest shots and make it tough for the Magic to score. I am also expecting Poole and Thompson to play well, as they should be the most aggressive offensive players in this game. They will dominate on the offensive end of the floor and the Warriors will cover this spead. |
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01-06-23 | Hawks v. Lakers +2.5 | 114-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta’s interior defense is far away from an elite level, and the Lakers will attack the rim all night long. With LeBron in the lineup, the Lakers will torture the Hawks’ D. Last Friday, he dropped a season-high 47 points on Atlanta, and the Lakers erased a 15-point deficit. Both teams have been inconsistent, and their ATS record tells the story. The Hawks are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference. The Lakers, on the other side, have gone 4-1 ATS in their past five tilts overall and 4-2 ATS in their previous six meetings with the Eastern Conference. |
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01-06-23 | Cavs v. Nuggets -6 | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland hits the road where the team is three-games under .500 this season. Denver, meanwhile, comes in at 2-2 on the second leg of back-to-back games this season but has lost each of its last two. In the past, Denver would have had difficulty matching up with a scoring two-guard of Mitchell's caliber. However, the addition of the likes of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown gives the Nuggets much more defensive flexibility and allows Aaron Gordon to stay at his more traditional power forward position and not have to cover the opponent's best scorer. Jokic is a nightmare matchup for most bigs and he will certainly draw Cleveland center Jarrett Allen away from the basket which should help nullify Cleveland's rebounding advantage. Despite the back-to-back, Denver will show off its home court dominance while the Cavs will leave Denver still trying to find a way to gain more consistency away from home. |
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01-06-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -169 | 126-112 | Loss | -169 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Chicago rolls in off a win over Brooklyn that snapped the Nets’ 12-game win streak, that game was at the United Center. The Bulls now have to travel to Philadelphia to take on a 76ers team that has been rolling of late with 11 wins in their last 13 games. Chicago has sputtered on the road this season, posting a 7-12 mark, while Philadelphia has put together a solid 16-5 home mark to this point of the year. The 76ers have a variety of weapons to do damage on the offensive end of the floor and if Embiid returns to play in this game, that merely makes them that much more dangerous. Philadelphia is the better team here and they earn the home victory over a game Bulls squad |
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01-03-23 | Kings v. Jazz -135 | 117-115 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings outlasted the Jazz last Friday thanks to Kevin Huerter’s 3-pointer with 9.2 seconds remaining. It was a proper high-scoring affair, and both teams shot above 54.0% from the field. I’m looking for another tight contest when Utah hosts Sacramento, and it could easily go either way. Both teams struggle to defend, especially in the paint, but they also lean on 3-point shooting a lot. Keep your eyes on Lauri Markkanen, who dropped 36 points on the Kings in that heartbreaking defeat. Markkanen went 16-for-24 from the field and will torture Sacramento’s leaky defense once more. Utah is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four outings at home, whereas Sacramento is 2-3 SU and ATS in its previous five showings on the road. |
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01-02-23 | Hawks v. Warriors -120 | 141-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors should get Andrew Wiggins back. Wiggins, who’s averaging 19.1 points per game on 45.0% shooting from deep, has missed 13 straight games due to a right adductor strain, and his presence would be a huge boost for the Warriors’ offense. It’s hard to trust the Hawks defense if Clint Capela remains sidelined, so I would take the Warriors to cover. I’ve mentioned how good the Warriors have been on the home court lately. On the other side, the Hawks are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last ten showings on the road. The Hawks have also covered the spread in three of their past ten games overall. |
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01-02-23 | Spurs +12.5 v. Nets | 103-139 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio is 6-6 in its past 12 games since an 11-game skid Nov. 14-Dec. 4. The Spurs have produced their best four shooting performances in that span, including Saturday when they shot 55.3 percent in a 126-125 loss to the visiting Dallas Mavericks. San Antonio was unable to stop Luka Doncic, who scored 51 points as the Mavs shot 58.1 percent. It was the fifth time an opponent made at least 58 percent from the floor against San Antonio and 21st instance of the Spurs allowing at least 50 percent shooting. Despite allowing a big night from Doncic, the Spurs nearly erased a 17-point deficit over the final 17-plus minutes thanks to big games from Keldon Johnson (30 points) and rookie Jeremy Sochan (20 points). Consider that the Nets are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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01-02-23 | Raptors v. Pacers -120 | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units VanVleet's uncertainty does not help the Raptors cause for many reasons, not the least of which is his ability to knock down long range shots. Indiana can shoot the long ball with the best of them and they put pressure on the opposition to match shots with them instead of falling into a 3 points for two points rut. The Pacers are also catching a Toronto team that is not playing great basketball at the moment. Toronto is just 20th defending the three point shot so they will have to particularly protective of the basketball in this one to avoid wasting possessions. While the Raptors are ranked #1 in turnovers per game, the loss of VanVleet would be a blow to their ability to protect the basketball. Keep in mind, Toronto has been terrible on the road this season, 5-12 coming in. |
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01-02-23 | Pelicans v. 76ers -3.5 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The pelicans are just 7-9 on the road and have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. Philly is 14-5 at home and Joel Embiid has averaged almost 35 points per game in Philly. The sixers have won five straight home games against New Orleans by an average of 7.5 points. |
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01-01-23 | Wizards v. Bucks -6.5 | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks are currently (15-3) at home this season and the Wizards aren't good enough offensively to cover this spread. The Wizards could also be without Bradley Beal in this game, which would be a huge loss. The Bucks have continued to dominate on defense, as they have the third lowest adjusted defensive rating in the NBA and they are holding their opponents to the sixth least amount of points scored per game. They will lock the Wizards up and efficiently score on the other end. Washington has been average on both ends of the court, but I don't see anyone on their team stopping Giannis in the paint. He will continue to score throughout and allow his team to slowly pull away. The Wizards are close, but they aren't healthy enough to challenge the Bucks on the road. |
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12-31-22 | 76ers v. Thunder +4.5 | 115-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia guard Tyrese Maxey will take some time to return to form after missing more than a month of action, 76ers coach Doc Rivers said. After a nine-point outing in his return on Friday, Maxey may or may not be on the court Saturday as the 76ers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder. Philadelphia lost its second game in a row on Friday, falling 127-116 to the host New Orleans Pelicans. Maxey came off the bench to hit 4 of 10 shots while adding one rebound and one assist in 19 minutes. Consider that the Thunder are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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12-31-22 | Mavs v. Spurs +7.5 | 126-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have won two of their past three games, including a 122-115 home victory over New York on Thursday. Keldon Johnson scored 30 points and Romeo Langford added a career-high 23 as San Antonio Spurs built a 17-point lead in the third quarter and had all the answers late to send the Knicks to a fifth consecutive loss. Tre Jones scored 13, Jeremy Sochan had 12 and Jakob Poeltl took 12 rebounds for the Spurs, The win was without Devin Vassell, who missed the game with a sore left knee. With Vassell, the Spurs' second-leading scorer this season (19.6 points per game), listed as doubtful for Saturday's game, San Antonio will need to rely on Langford to pick up the slack. He was more than up to the task in Thursday's win. Consider that the Mavericks are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games. |
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12-31-22 | Nets v. Hornets +7 | 123-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hornets opened their homestand with Thursday night's 121-113 victory against Oklahoma City. The Hornets need to start producing in home games. They had lost five in a row on their home court until the result against Oklahoma City. If there's a new surge of excitement stemming from the Hornets it might revolve around point guard LaMelo Ball, who was one assist shy of a double-double Thursday night with 27 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. The Hornets also are bound to be pumped up about rookie center Mark Williams, who has spent most of the season in the G League. He came off the bench to rack up 17 points (7-for-7 shooting), 13 rebounds, two blocked shots and two steals Thursday night. Consider that the Nets are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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12-31-22 | Clippers v. Pacers +3.5 | 130-131 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana looks for its third consecutive win and fifth in the last six games as it continues a home stretch. The Pacers are playing the third of four straight at home, a run that will include eight of 10 overall in Indianapolis. They opened this stretch with a pair of high-scoring wins, beating Atlanta 129-114 on Tuesday, and then 135-126 against Cleveland on Thursday. Tyrese Haliburton led the Pacers in scoring with 29 against the Cavs. He dished nine assists to maintain his NBA-leading pace of 10.2 assists per game. Buddy Hield shot 5 of 6 from 3-point range en route to 25 points, Aaron Nesmith scored 22 points and Bennedict Mathurin finished with 23 points off the bench. Finally, the Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games. |
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12-30-22 | Jazz v. Kings -150 | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Domantas Sabonis is playing through a fracture in his thumb, and the Kings desperately need their best frontcourt player on the floor. Over his last nine games, Sabonis has averaged 21.8 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and I’m expecting him to dominate Utah’s fragile interior defense. On the other side, the Jazz will look to take advantage of Sacramento’s 3-point defense. We should see a tight battle between a couple of bad defensive teams, and I’m backing the Kings to win and cover. Sacramento won’t take a ton of shots from downtown. The Kings will attack the rim and try to exploit Utah’s bad defensive rebounding. The Jazz are 28th in the league in defensive rebound percentage, whereas Sacramento paces the NBA in this category. |
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12-30-22 | 76ers v. Pelicans +1.5 | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans has an adjusted offensive rating of 114.7, which is the eighth-highest rating in the NBA. The 76ers have struggled against top teams and they fell to the Wizards in their last outing. They will struggle in this game, as I don't see them efficiently scoring enough points to cover this spread. Philadelphia is only scoring the 21st most points per game and the Pelicans have the size down low to make it difficult for Embiid. They will challenge him every time he gets the ball, which will hurt the 76ers' offense. New Orleans also has the second-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the second-lowest three-point shooting percentage. They will defend on the perimeter and in the paint, as they won't allow the Sixers to score enough points to cover this spread. The Pelicans are sitting at the top of the Western Conference standings for a reason. |
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12-30-22 | Wolves v. Bucks -6 | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee is just 22nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, but that has a lot to do with them being dead last on the road. In-home games, Milwaukee has been more explosive, where they are fourth in offensive efficiency. The Bucks have also won five of their last six games at home, with each of those wins coming by at least nine points or more. Both teams want to snap their four game losing streak, but the home court advantage will make a huge difference tonight. I will take the Bucks to cover. |
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12-29-22 | Rockets +10.5 v. Mavs | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last Friday, the Mavericks barely outlasted the Rockets 112-106 and failed to cover a 7-point spread at Toyota Center in Houston. Luka Doncic dropped 50 points on the Rockets, but it wasn’t enough for an ATS victory. Dallas will beat Houston once more. However, I’m not sure the Mavs will be able to cover a double-digit spread. They’ll be a bit tired after that wild game against the Knicks, and the Mavericks are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests against the Rockets. Dallas has won four games in a row, and none of those victories has come by more than nine points. |
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12-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Raptors +3.5 | 119-106 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The game against the Clippers was the first of a stretch of nine of 10 games at home for the Raptors. They have lost four straight in their own building, however. It was a good night for two members of Toronto's 2019 NBA championship team now with the Clippers: Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell. Leonard, playing his second game in Toronto as a member of the Clippers, was quietly effective with 15 points, seven rebounds and eight assists. Powell, playing his first game in Toronto since being traded to the Portland Trail Blazers in March 2021, scored 22 points. Consider that the Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings. |
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12-29-22 | Cavs v. Pacers +5 | 126-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers have covered the spread in eighth of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record and deserve more respect here. The Cavs have been dominant at home, but now find themselves on a two game losing streak and have only covered the spread in one of their last 10 games away from home. Two weeks ago the Cavs beat the Pacers by only six points despite making nine less free-throws on 13 free attempts, and also being outshot 45.2% to 30.6% from three-point range. Indiana will fare better at home this time and cover. |
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12-28-22 | Nets -6.5 v. Hawks | 108-107 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets are (9-1) in their last 10 games. I don't see the Hawks being able to slow down their offense, as Brooklyn is scoring the 13th most points per game. But, they also have the highest three-point and overall shooting percentage. They can score from anywhere on the floor and the Hawks aren't going to be able to slow them down. According to dunksandthrees.com, Atlanta has the 16th lowest adjusted defensive rating in the league and they are allowing the 17th most points per game. Durant and Irving will continue to attack and they will score enough points to cover this spread. Brooklyn has also been elite defensively during this run, as they are surrendering the ninth least amount of points per game and they are holding their opponents to the fifth-lowest shooting percentage in the NBA. They will contest shots near the basket and force the Hawks to beat them from the outside. This won't happen, though. The Hawks are only shooting 33.2% from deep, which is the 27th-lowest three-point shooting percentage in the league. |
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12-27-22 | Clippers v. Raptors -200 | 124-113 | Loss | -200 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units LA has struggled in the second half of back-to-back situations this season, having dropped each of their last four such contests. While the team is relatively healthy, the fact remains that they are the league’s worst offensive team despite a solid collection of talent. Toronto seems to have righted the ship with wins over the Knicks and Cavaliers on the road in their last two games. Siakam exploded against New York, hanging 52 points in the game, and followed that up with 26 points against the Cavaliers. Playing at home with a rest advantage here, you have to give the upper hand to the Raptors as they make it three straight wins. |
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12-27-22 | 76ers -183 v. Wizards | 111-116 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Washington to take on the Wizards on Tuesday night. Philadelphia is 20-12 SU overall this year while Washington comes in with a 13-21 SU overall record on the season. Washington is 1-6 SU and 1-5 ATS this year against Atlantic division opponents. Washington is 5-13-2 ATS last 20 games overall. Washington is 6-21-2 ATS last 29 games after a SU win. Washington is 1-6 ATS last 7 home games. Washington is 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games after a SU win of more than 10 points. Philadelphia has now won 8 games in a row and covered 7 of those 8. Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS last 5 games when playing on 1 days rest. |
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12-26-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. Blazers | 113-124 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Charlotte is 2-2 on the excursion after outlasting Los Angeles Lakers 134-130 on Friday. The Hornets have won two of their last three games after losing their previous eight contests. Gordon Hayward scored the tiebreaking points with 6.3 seconds left and P.J. Washington added two free throws to seal it. Portland is returning home from a 2-4 road trip in which it dropped its last three games. The Trail Blazers lost a pair of games to the Oklahoma City Thunder before finishing the trip with a 120-107 loss to the Denver Nuggets. Consider that the Hornets are 25-12-2 ATS in their last 39 road games. |
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12-26-22 | Jazz v. Spurs +4.5 | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thursday's game was the only home contest for Utah in a stretch of six of seven games away from home. The Jazz's three-game road trip includes stops in San Francisco and Sacramento to play the Warriors and Kings on Wednesday and Friday. The Spurs (10-22) head home after a 133-113 loss at Orlando on Friday. Consider that the Jazz are only 9-24-1 ATS in the last 34 meetings in San Antonio. |
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12-26-22 | Pacers +3.5 v. Pelicans | 93-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zion Williamson (25.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG) is the Pelicans’ leading scorer and a huge part of New Orleans’ defense, so his absence is a massive blow for Willie Green’s team. The Pels have won their last two games without Zion, but the Pacers are arguably a better team than San Antonio and Oklahoma City, so I’m going with Indiana to cover. The Pacers are healthy and Tyrese Haliburton has been outstanding as of late. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and 3-1-1 ATS in its previous five contests against New Orleans. On the other side, the Pelicans have covered twice in their last six outings at any location. |
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12-26-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Cavs | 125-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Because of what unfolded Friday night, the Nets can match the Bucks and Celtics for the NBA's longest winning streak of the season. Brooklyn also can get its first nine-game winning streak since a franchise-record 14-game run in 2006. Brooklyn's two most recent wins also did not require heavy lifting from Kevin Durant. Durant scored 24 points Friday after finishing with 23 Wednesday but also had plenty of help. Irving scored 14 of his 18 in the fourth when the Nets kept Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo scoreless. The Nets are 12-1 in their past 13 games and Cleveland has been nearly as hot lately. Since their five-game losing streak last month, the Cavaliers are 14-6 in their past 20 but are also attempting to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since that skid. On Friday, Cleveland saw its five-game winning streak stopped with a 118-107 loss to the Toronto Raptors. Cleveland shot 51.3 percent but despite shooting over 50 percent for the 15th time, it allowed a season-high 19 3-pointers to the NBA's worst 3-point shooting team and trailed by as many as 26 early in the third when coach J.B. Bickerstaff benched his starters. Consider that the Cavaliers are 26-58-4 ATS in their last 88 games following a ATS loss. |
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12-26-22 | Clippers -5.5 v. Pistons | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons' defense is not good around the rim or at defending the three-point shot, which will be a cause for concern against the Clippers, who are top ten in three-point shooting percentage and rebounds per game. Last game versus Atlanta, the Pistons gave up 66 points in the paint and 21 fast-break points. I'm expecting LA to have similar success. Los Angeles' defense is elite, ranking third in points allowed, fourth in field goal and three-point percentage, and fifth in opponent free-throw percentage. In other words, it's challenging for good offense squads to score against the Clippers, which the Pistons certainly are not. I'll bet on the Western Conference betting favorites, who may be rounding into shape, over a fading Pistons squad growing more irrelevant by the game. |
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12-25-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors +6.5 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With a 10th straight Christmas Day game on the schedule, the Warriors return home after a 1-5 trip that ended with 38- and 30-point drubbings at New York and Brooklyn, respectively. Golden State played the final four games of the trip without Curry, who remains out with a slightly dislocated left shoulder and will miss at least two more weeks. They also were missing Wiggins (strained adductor) for the entire trip and key reserve Donte DiVincenzo (illness) for the last two losses, but both practiced during the Warriors' three days off and are expected to face the Grizzlies. The Warriors have beaten their last two opponents in NBA Finals -- Boston at home and Toronto on the road -- for the only wins in their last nine games, and Draymond Green believes it's time for him and his mates to start taking a disappointing 15-18 start more seriously. |
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12-25-22 | 76ers v. Knicks +2 | 119-112 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After an impressive eight-game winning streak, the Knicks have dropped consecutive games to the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls. RJ Barrett scored 44 points and, Julius Randle added 29 points and 12 rebounds, but the Knicks fell 118-117 to the Bulls on Friday. DeMar DeRozan's jumper with 0.4 seconds remaining was the difference, and the loss left Barrett deflated. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall while the 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. |
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12-23-22 | Hornets v. Lakers -155 | 134-130 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers have to win the games like this one if they want to stand any chance of reaching the postseason in the crowded Western Conference. The Hornets are arguably one of the worst teams in the league. Charlotte could be without Terry Rozier once more, so I’m going with the Lakers to win and cover. LeBron will lead the way for Purple-and-Gold, and the Lakers should improve defensively after a couple of tough matchups against Phoenix and Sacramento. Los Angeles is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Charlotte. The Lakers have covered in four of their last five showings on Friday, while the Hornes are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests overall. |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana relies more on Haliburton than just about any team in the NBA relies on one player. He is not only the team’s leading scorer, but he also leads the league in assists. His questionable status for this game makes me want to stay completely away from the Pacers, especially since they are facing one of the top defensive teams in the league. Miami has started to round into form and should have its best player back from an illness on Friday night. The Heat have gone 11-5 in their last 16 games against Indiana and have covered the spread at a 10-5 clip in the last 15 meetings between these teams. |
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12-23-22 | Mavs v. Rockets +6.5 | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dallas Mavericks have not been a reliable team to back on the road as of late, losing three out of their last four road games. This marks the end of a four-game road trip. Dallas has also dropped five out of their last eight games overall. The Rockets have been competitive recently, especially at home. They recently beat the Bucks and Suns on the current homestand. Furthermore, the Mavericks have not been at their best offensively. They have only averaged 103 points in their last three games and that includes an overtime game in that span. The Rockets already beat the Mavericks in the lone meeting this season by nine points and are a strong play in this one. |
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12-23-22 | Bucks v. Nets -140 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brooklyn Nets earned the first six wins of their winning streak by making plays down the stretch in the fourth quarter. Their seventh victory was among the NBA's most dominant offensive performances of the season, and the Nets are curious to see what the follow-up showing looks like Friday night when they host the league-leading Milwaukee Bucks. During their seven-game winning streak, the Nets are averaging 125.1 points, shooting 55.9 percent and making 42.6 percent of their 3-point tries. Brooklyn also is averaging 28.1 assists to go along with 6.9 steals and 5.9 blocks since its last loss on Dec. 4 against the Boston Celtics. Brooklyn's numbers during the streak significantly increased Wednesday thanks to a flawless showing in a 143-113 rout of the visiting Golden State Warriors, who were without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. |
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12-23-22 | Bulls v. Knicks -5 | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have won eight of their last 10 games and four of their last five home games. They are playing well offensively, especially at home where they have scored over 115 points per game in their last three games while making over 51 percent of their shots. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 13 offensive boards per game at home, which will lead to extra scoring opportunities. The Bulls aren’t very good offensively and they played worse in recent games, giving up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, and will have a hard time slowing down the Knicks. The Bulls have lost four of their last six games and five of their last seven road games. Despite their recent run, they continue to play well offensively, scoring more than 115 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Knicks and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against them. They’ve also been very careless with the ball, which will be a problem against the Knicks, who are averaging seven steals per game. With New York holding opponents under 105 points per game in their last three games, they will keep Chicago’s offense in check, so go with New York to cover the spread. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -155 | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia is just as good as the Clippers on the defensive end of the court and they have been more efficient on the offensive end. The Clippers aren't going to be able to score enough points to cover this spread. They are averaging the least amount of points scored per game and the 23rd-highest shooting percentage from the field. They won't be able to handle Philadelphia's pressure and they will slowly fall behind in this game. I also see the Clippers struggling to stop Embiid, as he continues to dominate. He will control the paint and carry his team to victory. Embiid and Harden look deadly right now and I just don't see the Clippers slowing them down on the road. Philadelphia will also contest shots near the rim and on the perimeter, as they will continue to pull away throughout this game. Philadelphia still has the fourth-highest three-point shooting percentage and they are scoring the 19th most points per game. They will find different ways to score and cover the spread in this game. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -8 | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans has beaten the Spurs twice this season, both by double digit scores. The Spurs catch a break without Williamson playing in this matchup but they will be playing their second straight game without their own leading scorer in Johnson. New Orleans is 12-4 on the season at home and have played a number of games without key players and showed off their depth. They have shown the ability to protect the basketball and, even without Williamson, they can control the boards in this matchup. |
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12-21-22 | Lakers v. Kings -6 | 120-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings hope to get back on winning tracks when they square off Wednesday night in the California capital. The Lakers had won two in a row before opening a three-day, two-game trip without LeBron James and absorbing a 130-104 drubbing in Phoenix at the hands of the Suns on Monday night. At the same time, the Kings, also seeking a third consecutive win but doing so on their home court, saw the Charlotte Hornets come to town and walk away with a 125-119 victory. L.A. and Sacramento met once earlier this season, with the Kings winning 120-114 on the road in November in a game in which the Lakers were also missing James. This time, they'll be without Anthony Davis, who injured his right foot in a 126-108 home win over the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Consider that the Lakers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. |
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12-21-22 | Blazers v. Thunder +4 | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City. Additionally the Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. While the Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 games following a ATS win, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. |
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12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets +1.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Rockets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games. While the Magic are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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12-21-22 | Mavs v. Wolves +3.5 | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Naz Reid continued his strong play in the absence of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns by contributing 27 points and 13 rebounds. Gobert has missed three straight games with a sprained left ankle, while Towns has been sidelined since sustaining a calf injury on Nov. 28. Jaylen Nowell scored 18 points off the bench and Austin Rivers added 16 for the Timberwolves, one night after Minnesota set a franchise record for points (150) and field goals (57) in a rout of the Chicago Bulls. Consider that the Mavericks are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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12-21-22 | Bulls v. Hawks -6 | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road. They are 2-3 in the second half of back-to-backs thus far this season. They are also just 2-7 ATS overall in their last nine games prior to Tuesday night's game. The Bulls defense is struggling to slow down their opponents and will have a difficult time against a Hawks team that has Murray and Collins back to support the offense. The Hawks should control the tempo and flow of the game with their ability to protect the basketball, they are 8th in the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio. Additionally, the Bulls are just 4-11 on the road this season while the Hawks are 10-5 at home. Atlanta defeated Chicago two weeks ago in Atlanta. |
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12-21-22 | Raptors v. Knicks -125 | 113-106 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In their six-game losing streak, the Raptors are scoring under 110 points per game and shooting under 45% from the floor. All season, the Raptors have struggled from long range as they are 29th in the NBA in 3pt field goal percentage. The Raptors are typically one of the best assist-to-turnover teams in the NBA, ranking fifth in the league. However, they have turned the ball over 27 times combined in their last two losses. Consider that the Knicks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 0 days rest. |
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12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets +1.5 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have plenty of talent, but the one name circled on every scouting report is two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. He is playing well again this year and is coming off a historic game against Charlotte on Sunday night. Jokic finished with 40 points, a career-high 27 rebounds and 10 assists to join Wilt Chamberlain as the only players to compile those numbers in one game. Jokic had a franchise-record 20 rebounds in the first half of the 119-115 win. Consider that the Grizzlies are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games and 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Denver. |
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12-20-22 | Wizards v. Suns -6 | 113-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to take the Suns and I am going to lay the points (-7.5). As long as Booker and Ayton play, I believe this team can beat anybody. Make sure to check the injury report before placing your wager. On the offensive end of the court, the Suns have the third-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the 10th most points per game. They can score from anywhere on the floor and the Wizards won't be able to slow them down. Washington has now lost 10 games in a row, as they can't do anything right. They are struggling on the defensive end of the court and they can efficiently score either. They are only scoring the 23rd most points per game and they haven't been able to defend the three-point shot. The Suns will find consistent open shots throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. Phoenix has also been elite defensively, as they are surrendering the seventh least amount of points per game and they have the 10th lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the floor, as I see them slowly pulling away in this game. |
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12-20-22 | Jazz v. Pistons +2.5 | 126-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons have had a tough 10 game stretch that includes two losses to Memphis and a lost to New Orleans, but also upset wins over Miami and Dallas. The overall record isn't prett, but Detroit doesn't cheat its fans in the effort department and are 9-2-2 in thier lst 13 gainst a team with a winning record. Utah looked flat last night in Cleveland, and although the Cavs are a good team, they never really competed. The Jazz have been a poor defensive team most of the season, but now their offense is also not coming through. Utah is 0-4 in its last four games against at team with a losing record. I will back the home dog here. |