04-26-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic OVER 178 |
|
76-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
The last three games of this series have not been played with much offensive efficiency. Orlando has scored just 88, 84, and 85 points while shooting a combined 38.7% (89-230) from the field and an abysmal 20.3% (15-74) from three-point land including a dreadful 2-23 from beyond the arc in Game 4. The Magic have been very good in getting to the free throw line (116 attempts) in this series, but they
|
04-25-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +3 v. Denver Nuggets |
|
101-104 |
Push |
0 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Nuggets were basically in a must-win situation on Saturday night when they returned home to their strong home court, down 0-2 in the series. Denver failed to get it done and lost outright as a 5-point favorite, 94-97, and trailed by as many as 10 points in that game. Denver now faces a 0-3 deficit in this series and they know it is over as no NBA team has ever overcome such a deficit, going 0-94 all-time in a best-of-seven playoff series.
Home favorites have historically been a poor play when facing a 0-3 deficit and the underdog covers nearly 70% ATS in this situation. The logic is simple as the favorite is normally a team that should have been more competitive in the series, yet has drastically underachieved. This normally leads to less effort in Game 4, while the underdog remains focused and wants to close out the series since they are playing a decent opponent.
The opposite occurs with home underdogs as these teams normally play hard and we saw two perfect examples this past weekend when both Indiana and Philadelphia won outright as home underdogs. The Knicks did not win as a home underdog in Game 4 on Sunday, but that situation was different as New York was actually favored in Game 3 by -3
|
04-25-11 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 184.5 |
|
82-93 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 55 m |
Show
|
Portland overcame a 23-point deficit in Game 4 and won 84-82, so this series is now tied at 2-2 which makes Game 5 tonight extremely important for both squads. This should lead to plenty of defensive intensity on both sides of the court. We saw this strong defensive play in Game 1 which totaled just 170 points and also in Game 4 on Saturday which totaled only 166 total points.
Games 2 and 3 were a bit higher scoring, but they still totaled just 190 and 189 points, so overall the four playoff games have averaged only 179 points per game. More importantly, the pace of play has been extremely slow in all four games with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 176.5, 174, 177.5, and 173.5 for an average re-score of 175.5 per game. My mathematical re-scoring percentage model has totaled just 176, 184, 179, and 175.5 in the four playoff games for an average re-score of just 178.5.
Both teams are also in fine current form, especially on the defensive end of the court. Portland has held 14 of their last 17 opponents to less than 100 points, while Dallas has held their opponents to less than 100 points in eight straight games. The two defenses should be able to continue their dominant ways here because the match-ups on both ends of the floor give the stop units the advantage. Portland
|
04-25-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 189 |
|
86-104 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 29 m |
Show
|
Memphis and San Antonio have played 7 times this year, and four of those seven games have gone Over the total, including Game 1 of this series, however the past two playoff games have both stayed Under the total and this has now caused the oddsmakers to lower the total 8 points from the Game 1 line. This drastic move down is incorrect and has created solid line value as the pace has remained fast in this series and my re-scoring pace model totaled 204.5 and 193 in Games 2 and 3, with my re-scoring percentage model totaling 203 and 200.5 in the past two games.
Overall, the seven games between these teams has averaged 194 points per game this season with median score of 199 points. My re-scoring pace model has averaged 196 per game with a median score of 193, while my re-scoring percentage model has averaged 199 points per game with a median score of 199.5 point per game.
The match-ups are favorable for high-scoring games as the Spurs have a terrific perimeter offense, while the Grizzlies have a strong inside game which means both teams should be able to generate easy buckets. They both like to play the transition game as well, so the pace in their games is also fast. San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich thinks his team should run a little more in order to create easier baskets in transition.
|
04-24-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Hornets +6 |
|
88-93 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
Los Angeles took a 2-1 series lead with their 100-86 blowout win over New Orleans on Friday night. The Lakers jumped out early and never looked back; the Hornets only held a 2-point lead over the 48 minutes of play. Despite the big 14-point win by the Lakers, they didn
|
04-24-11 |
Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 178.5 |
|
85-88 |
Loss |
-104 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
The last two games of this series have not been played with much offensive efficiency. Orlando has scored just 88 and 84 points while shooting a combined 38.4% (58-151) from the field and an abysmal 25.5% (13-51) from three-point land. The Magic have been very good in getting to the free throw line (87 attempts) in this series, but they
|
04-24-11 |
Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 188 |
|
82-86 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
Philadelphia trails the series 3-0, and home teams in this situation usually go all-out in order to salvage at least one win. Because of that, these teams really push the pace so they can try and score easy baskets in transition. And that is what we should see from Philadelphia this afternoon, especially since that is how they played for the majority of the season. The Sixers cannot settle for half-court basketball because the Miami defense is simply too good and Philadelphia does not have a good half-court offense. Philadelphia generates points from their quick aggressiveness so they must play fast to have a chance in this game.
The Sixers can certainly score points on Miami
|
04-23-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -4.5 |
|
97-94 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
We saw the truth between these two teams in Game 1. Oklahoma City and Denver battled throughout that game and the game wasn
|
04-23-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 191 |
|
88-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
Memphis and San Antonio have played 6 times this year, and four of those six games have gone Over the total including Game 1 of this series. The six games between the two teams have had an average of 199.5 points per game scored while only twice has one team failed to score at lease 100 points in a game. The match-ups are perfect for high-scoring games as the Spurs have a terrific perimeter offense while the Grizzlies have a terrific inside game which means we see both teams able to generate easy buckets.
They both like to play the transition game as well, so the pace in their games is also fast. San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich thinks his team should run a little more in order to create easier baskets in transition.
|
04-23-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 187 |
|
82-84 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a critical game in the series. Portland does not want to go down 3-1 while Dallas does not want to allow the Blazers to tie the series up at 2 apiece. Because of the importance of this game, we can expect both teams to have a conservative game plan, and focus their efforts on the defensive end of the court. We saw exactly that in Game 1 when the teams combined to score just 170 total points. Tonight
|
04-23-11 |
Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Portland Trail Blazers |
|
82-84 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
This has been a pretty even series so far as all three games have been highly competitive. With tonight
|
04-23-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers OVER 187.5 |
|
84-89 |
Loss |
-104 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
Indiana has given Chicago a tougher fight than expected. The first three games have all been close with the Bulls
|
04-22-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers -5 v. New Orleans Hornets |
|
100-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
New Orleans pulled off a shocking upset in Game 1 when they beat the Lakers 109-100 as 10-point underdogs. The Lakers responded with an 87-78 win in Game 2, and even though they only won by 9 points, Los Angeles controlled that game from start to finish. The Lakers held a comfortable 15-point lead midway through the fourth quarter before the Hornets made the final score somewhat respectable. Los Angeles should come out full throttle tonight as they do not want to give New Orleans any confidence, especially with two games to play on their home court.
New Orleans suffered an unfortunate injury in late March when David West torn his ACL and was lost for the season. Any hopes the Hornets had for a run in the playoffs ended when West left the court. The Hornets
|
04-22-11 |
Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 180.5 |
|
84-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
The first two games of this series have not been played with much offensive efficiency. Orlando has scored just 93 and 88 points while shooting a combined 39.9% (61-153) from the field and an abysmal 24.4% (11-45) from three-point land. The Magic have been very good in getting to the free throw line (66 attempts), but they
|
04-22-11 |
Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks -3 |
|
113-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
New York let the first two games in this series get away from them. The Knicks led both games with less than 20 seconds left to play, but the Celtics hit two clutch shots to escape with fortunate wins. The Knicks certainly deserved to win both games, and since they return home trailing 0-2 in the series, we don
|
04-21-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 186 |
|
92-97 |
Loss |
-102 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
The Mavericks and Blazers played a higher scoring game (190 total points) on Tuesday night as the game went Over the total by just 6 points. The 56-point second quarter was the culprit, especially after the teams combined to score 26 points over the final 5 minutes of the first half. The 190 points in Game 2 is misleading because the pace was slow but both teams shot the ball really well; they combined to shoot 48.6% (69-142) from the field and 45.5% (15-33) from three-point land. My re-score pace model only shows 174 points scored and my re-score percentage model shows 184 points scored which proves that the 190 actual points scored were not deserved.
Game 1 easily went Under the total and there is actually still some value left in tonight
|
04-21-11 |
Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 186.5 |
|
100-94 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
With the shift to Philadelphia for Game 3, and the Sixers down 0-2, tonight
|
04-21-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers OVER 189 |
|
88-84 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
This series has been a lot closer than expected. Indiana has taken the Bulls down to the wire twice; Chicago
|
04-20-11 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 196 |
|
87-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 5 m |
Show
|
Memphis and San Antonio have played 5 times this year, and four of those five games have gone Over the total including Game 1 on Sunday afternoon. The five games between the two teams have had an average of 203.4 points per game scored while only once has one team failed to score at lease 100 points in a game. The match-ups are perfect for high-scoring games as the Spurs have a terrific perimeter offense while the Grizzlies have a terrific inside game which means we see both teams able to generate easy buckets.
They both like to play the transition game as well, so the pace in their games is also fast. San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich thought his team should have run a little more in Game 1 in order to create easier baskets in transition.
|
04-20-11 |
Denver Nuggets +4.5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
89-106 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 36 m |
Show
|
Denver blew a golden opportunity to steal Game 1 in Oklahoma City after they blew a 13-point lead. The Nuggets played a terrific game despite the loss; they shot 50.6% (39-77) from the field with five different players scoring in double digits. Denver also got to the free throw line 33 times in that game which shows how aggressive they were in attacking the basket. But they failed to cash in on those free throws as they made only 63.6% of those attempts, way below their seasonal free throw average of 74.6%. If the Nuggets play like they did in Game 1 and make their free throws, then they should once again take the Thunder right down to the wire.
Since March 1st, the Nuggets are 15-7 so they
|
04-19-11 |
Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
89-101 |
Loss |
-104 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
Portland was in control of Game 1 with just about 3 minutes left to play before the win was taken away from them by the refs. Dallas was awarded with free throws on almost every possession down the stretch, and Portland
|
04-19-11 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 183 |
|
89-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Blazers and Mavericks played a low-scoring game on Saturday night as a total of 170 points were scored. Prior to that game, the head-to-head meetings between Portland and Dallas were high scoring this year, but those results were misleading. We can eliminate the first two games because the Mavericks didn
|
04-19-11 |
New York Knicks +7 v. Boston Celtics |
|
93-96 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
New York let Game 1 get away from them. The Knicks led by 12 points (51-39) at the half, but they only scored 34 points in the second half and lost 87-85 on a last second Ray Allen three-pointer. New York thoroughly out-played Boston, and the Celtics were very fortunate to win that game. The Knicks are still playing good basketball despite losing on Sunday night; they are 7-2 over their last nine meaningful games. New York is also covering pointspreads (7-2 ATS) during that stretch including three straight-up wins as underdogs. They also beat three playoff teams over those nine games so it
|
04-18-11 |
Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 v. Miami Heat |
|
73-94 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
Philadelphia showed a lot of grit on Saturday afternoon. The Sixers jumped out to a big lead (31-19) after the first quarter and they couldn
|
04-18-11 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Miami Heat OVER 189 |
|
73-94 |
Loss |
-107 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
|
04-17-11 |
Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 199 |
|
103-107 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
Denver and Oklahoma City come into the playoffs playing some terrific basketball. Since March 1st, the Nuggets are 15-6 while the Thunder have gone 19-5. Both offenses are also playing superb basketball; Denver has averaged 112 points per game on 49.1% shooting over their last five games while Oklahoma City has also averaged 112 points per game on 49.5% shooting over the same stretch. The teams are also quite familiar with each other as this will be their third game since the beginning of April, and we expect the Nuggets to play a different style here since they lost the other two games because their offense struggled.
Head coach George Karl publicly stated a few weeks ago that he
|
04-17-11 |
New York Knicks +6 v. Boston Celtics |
|
85-87 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
04-17-11 |
New Orleans Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers -10 |
|
109-100 |
Loss |
-107 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
New Orleans suffered an unfortunate injury in late March when David West torn his ACL and was lost for the season. Any hopes the Hornets had for a run in the playoffs ended when West left the court. The Hornets
|
04-16-11 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 186 |
|
81-89 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
The head-to-head meetings between Portland and Dallas were high scoring this year, but those results were misleading. We can eliminate the first two games because the Mavericks didn
|
04-16-11 |
Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls -11.5 |
|
99-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
Indiana is the only team that made the playoffs with a losing record. The Pacers are also one of only two teams (Hawks being the other) in the playoffs that got out-scored by their opponents over the course of the regular season. Indiana has no business being in the playoffs, and since they are playing one of the best teams in the league, the Pacers will be hard-pressed to be competitive, especially in Game 1 of the series.
The Pacers beat the Bulls 115-108 in overtime in the latest meeting in mid-March so that loss is still fresh on Chicago
|
04-13-11 |
Milwaukee Bucks +10 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
110-106 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee is still playing hard despite being eliminated for the playoffs. They
|
04-11-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings +6 |
|
120-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City played in a big game last night in Los Angeles. The Thunder came to play as they routed the Lakers 120-106; OKC shot 55.6% (40-72) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land. They were also extremely aggressive as they got to the free throw line 35 times in the game. The Thunder connected on 91.4% (32-35) of those free throws which aided them in their win. But last night
|
04-10-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 189.5 |
|
120-106 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
Late season NBA handicapping can be challenging, especially when two playoff-bound teams play. It
|
04-08-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers +2.5 |
|
86-93 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
Los Angeles is not playing good basketball right now. The Lakers have lost 3 straight games after winning 17 of their first 18 games after the All-Star break. This team simply has motivational issues right now as they are treading the fine line that most teams face right before the playoffs start. The Lakers really have no need to go out and exert themselves in these final few games since they have little to gain by doing so. And in order to conserve some energy and stay healthy, the Lakers have not been putting forth tremendous effort out on the court.
|
04-07-11 |
Boston Celtics +4.5 v. Chicago Bulls |
|
81-97 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a big game for both teams tonight as the Celtics and Bulls are still fighting for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. This game figures to play-out like a playoff game where we see a ton of intensity:
|
04-06-11 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 201.5 |
|
108-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
These two teams just met in Los Angeles on Saturday night; the Clippers beat the Thunder 98-92 after overcoming a 16-point deficit. Both teams came into that game on a back-to-back set, and the low score and shooting percentages showed that the Clippers and Thunder were fatigued. And both teams once again come into tonight
|
04-05-11 |
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 v. Orlando Magic |
|
72-78 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
These two teams come into tonight
|
04-04-11 |
Butler +3.5 v. Connecticut |
|
41-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
04-03-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -4 |
|
96-104 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
Dallas is locked in the #3 spot for the Western Conference playoffs so they do not have anything to play for over their last six games of the regular season. The Mavericks have been on a long, 6-game road trip that comes to an end tonight. This will be their sixth game in nine nights, and it is also their fourth game in five nights on a back-to-back set. In fact, this will be Dallas
|
04-02-11 |
Kentucky -2 v. Connecticut |
|
55-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
84 h 2 m |
Show
|
This game is a re-match from back in late November; Connecticut beat Kentucky in Hawaii 84-67. The Wildcats were actually a 4
|
04-02-11 |
Virginia Commonwealth +3 v. Butler |
|
62-70 |
Loss |
-115 |
29 h 20 m |
Show
|
Many people thought that Virginia Commonwealth did not deserve a NCAA Tournament bid, but the Rams have proven they belong with impressive underdog wins over USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida St, and Kansas. There was nothing misleading about any of those victories as VCU dominated four of the five games with easy 13, 18, 18, and 10 point wins. Their lone close call came against Florida St in overtime; VCU won that game 72-71. The Rams also defeated fellow tournament teams during the regular season in George Mason by 16 points and only lost to Old Dominion by 5 points in the CAA tournament. VCU has been a strong underdog this season going 12-3 ATS when getting points so they are certainly worth a look in this game.
Virginia Commonwealth relies heavily on the outside shot as the Rams take 41.3% of their total shots (22th highest) and get 35.4% of their total points (22th most among all 345 Division-1 teams) from three-point range. The Rams took 42.2% of their total shots (2nd most) and got 33.7% of their total points (2nd most) from beyond the arc in conference games this season. Butler
|
04-02-11 |
Virginia Commonwealth v. Butler UNDER 134.5 |
|
62-70 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
Virginia Commonwealth has played five good offensive games to reach the Final Four. The Rams have been on fire from downtown as they
|
04-01-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Portland Trail Blazers -3 |
|
91-98 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
Portland has played some terrific basketball since the beginning of February. The Blazers are 17-8 over their last 25 games with only one of those eight losses coming by more than 9 points. They
|
03-31-11 |
Wichita State -2 v. Alabama |
|
66-57 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
Alabama benefited from playing three home games in this tournament. The Crimson Tide went a perfect 19-0 in Coleman Coliseum, but they were a much different team on the road. Alabama went just 6-11 in away games this season, and we saw them squeak out a 62-61 win over Colorado on Tuesday night. They needed to hit a layup with just 13 seconds left to play to win that game, and that came against a Colorado team that doesn
|
03-30-11 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 189.5 |
|
97-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
Cleveland is off a huge home win last night over the Miami Heat. The Cavs beat LeBron and company 102-90, and off such a big performance in a special game, Cleveland will regress a ton in this game tonight. The 102 points they scored was the first time they cracked the century mark in their past 12 games, and just the second time they scored more than 100 points in the month of March. We do not anticipate the Cavs to put back-to-back big offensive games together, especially after the way they shot the ball last night.
The Cavaliers shot an incredible 55.6% (35-63) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land. They also got to the free throw line 35 times in the game which shows how aggressive they played. But we doubt they will be able to match that intensity, and it
|
03-29-11 |
Phoenix Suns v. Sacramento Kings +1.5 |
|
113-116 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
These two teams are ending the season in different directions. Phoenix has collapsed; the Suns have won just 3 of their last 10 games. They have no chance to make the playoffs which means they have nothing to play for going forward. Sacramento has been playing good basketball recently; the Kings have won four of their last five games with all of those games coming on the road. And for a team that is just 20-52 on the season that shows that they haven
|
03-29-11 |
Wichita State -3 v. Washington State |
|
75-44 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
Wichita St comes into this game at 27-8. The Shockers are an extremely talented team that should have played in the NCAA tournament instead of the NIT. Aside from a few other snubs, Wichita St is the best team that missed the NCAA tournament. The Shockers had high expectations this season, and after their impressive showings in early season tournaments against teams like Connecticut, Wichita St figured to cruise through their conference. But despite being the best team in the MVC on both ends of the court, the Shockers lost their conference tournament and cost themselves a NCAA bid.
The Shockers
|
03-28-11 |
Oregon v. Creighton -4 |
|
76-84 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
The fact that Oregon is still playing basketball this late in March is a surprise. The Ducks were in a rebuilding year as they played with a new head coach (Dana Altman from Creighton) and they were also an extremely young team. Oregon went through a lot of growing pains early, but they picked up on Altman
|
03-27-11 |
Portland Trail Blazers +4.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
|
90-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
Portland has played some terrific basketball since the beginning of February. The Blazers are 16-6 over their last 22 games with only one of those six losses coming by more than 9 points. They
|
03-27-11 |
Kentucky -1 v. North Carolina |
|
76-69 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
This game is a re-match from back in early December; North Carolina beat Kentucky at home 75-73. The Tar Heels were actually a 1-point home underdog in that game, and the fact that this game is priced the same on a neutral court gives us some good value on Kentucky. Now there
|
03-27-11 |
Virginia Commonwealth v. Kansas -11 |
|
71-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
03-26-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +6 |
|
95-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
03-26-11 |
Arizona v. Connecticut -2.5 |
|
63-65 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
03-26-11 |
Arizona v. Connecticut UNDER 145 |
|
63-65 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
Both teams have played three good games to get this point, but there
|
03-26-11 |
Butler v. Florida -4 |
|
74-71 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
This game will be played in New Orleans which obviously gives a big site advantage to Florida. The Gators will have the majority of the fan support for this game, especially since Butler doesn
|
03-25-11 |
Virginia Commonwealth +4 v. Florida State |
|
72-71 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 21 m |
Show
|
Many people thought that Va Commonwealth did not deserve a NCAA Tournament bid, but the Rams have proven they belong with impressive underdog wins over USC, Georgetown, and Purdue. There was nothing misleading about any of those victories as VCU dominated all three games with easy 13, 18, and 18 point wins.
The Rams also defeated fellow Tournament teams in George Mason by 16 points and only lost to Old Dominion by 5 points in the CAA tournament earlier this month, both as 5-point underdogs, so tonight
|
03-25-11 |
Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics -13 |
|
83-81 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
This game has an interesting dynamic to it that clearly points to a side. Charlotte
|
03-25-11 |
Richmond +11 v. Kansas |
|
57-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
Richmond has been one of the best teams in the A-10 Conference over the last few years, and they come into tonight
|
03-25-11 |
Marquette v. North Carolina -4 |
|
63-81 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Big East remains an overrated conference as evident by the fact that only 2 of the 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament made the Sweet 16 this season and both of those teams (Connecticut and Marquette) beat a fellow Big East opponent in the Round of 32 last weekend, so the conference had to have at least two teams playing this week. In fact, during the past seven years, the Big East has put 17 more teams in the NCAA Tournament than any other conference, but no team has made the Finals and only two teams have made a Final Four appearance since 2004.
Marquette was one of the weakest defensive teams in the Big East this season as they allowed 34.8% from three-point range (11th out of 16 teams) and 50.8% from two-point range (14th out of 16 teams) in conference play. This weak interior defense will be a problem tonight against a North Carolina squad that has a lot of size down low and is one of the biggest teams in the nation with 6
|
03-24-11 |
Butler v. Wisconsin -4.5 |
|
61-54 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
03-24-11 |
Arizona v. Duke -8.5 |
|
93-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
Arizona escaped with a pair of hard fought, but fortunate wins last weekend. The Wildcats were in a dogfight with Memphis in their opening game; Arizona won that game 77-75. Next they jumped all over Texas early and led by 11 points at halftime. But they allowed the Longhorns back into the game, and Arizona was actually trailing with just over 10 seconds left to play in the game. However, the ref called a bogus 5-second foul on Texas which allowed Arizona to steal a 70-69 win in that game. Despite winning those two games, Arizona showed some major weaknesses, and we expect Duke to take full advantage and expose those shortcomings.
Arizona
|
03-24-11 |
Connecticut v. San Diego St +1.5 |
|
74-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 17 m |
Show
|
Connecticut has been on an eventful journey over the last three weeks. The Huskies won the Big East tournament after winning 5 games in 5 nights. They upgraded their seed line by about three or four spots because of their run, so they caught a couple of easy match-ups in their first two NCAA tournament games. But tonight, Connecticut
|
03-23-11 |
Boise State +5 v. Oregon |
|
71-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
03-23-11 |
Sacramento Kings v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 194 |
|
97-90 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
Sacramento obviously has nothing to play for as they come into tonight
|
03-23-11 |
Central Florida v. Creighton -3.5 |
|
64-82 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
|
Central Florida made a big splash when they opened the season at 14-0 and found themselves ranked in the Top 25. But since then, the Knights have gone just 7-11 over their last 18 games. They won their last two games at home to advance in this CBI tournament, but don
|
03-22-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks +4 |
|
114-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 22 m |
Show
|
This will be the third and final meeting of the season between Chicago and Atlanta. The series is tied at one after each team won on their home court; the Hawks won 83-80 in Atlanta while the Bulls won 94-76 in Chicago. Both of those games were played just this month, so Atlanta
|
03-21-11 |
Oklahoma State v. Washington State -5.5 |
|
64-74 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 38 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma St is fortunate to still be playing basketball this late into March. The Cowboys are not really a good team at all, and after numerous suspensions and off-court incidents, their tumultuous season should come to end tonight in Pullman, Washington. The Cowboys suspended Darrell Williams in mid-February after he was accused of sexual assault and then two weeks later head coach Travis Ford suspended point guard, Ray Penn, for violating a team policy. Those two guys were key contributors for Oklahoma St, and their absence showed in the Cowboys
|
03-20-11 |
Florida State v. Notre Dame -5 |
|
71-57 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
Florida St is a one-dimensional team; the Seminoles have a very good defense but absolutely no offense. In fact, Florida St has the worst offense of any of the major conference teams in the tournament. They rate close to teams like Hampton, St. Peter
|
03-20-11 |
Illinois v. Kansas OVER 145.5 |
|
59-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
The Big 10 and the Big 12 played identical basketball this season. Both conferences featured some terrific, efficient offenses while playing bad, inefficient defense. That formula is a recipe for a fast-paced, high scoring game. And that is exactly what we expect in this game tonight between the Illini and Jayhawks. Both teams are at their best when playing in transition so we should be in for a high-possession shootout tonight.
Illinois played exceptional offense in their win on Friday night over UNLV. The Illini scored 73 points after shooting an incredible 59.6% (28-47) from the field and 53.8% (7-13) from three-point land. And those impressive offensive numbers came against a solid, defensive, half-court team in UNLV. The Illini also had a season-high 18 fast-break points in that game, and since they
|
03-20-11 |
Arizona v. Texas -5.5 |
|
70-69 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
03-19-11 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 188.5 |
|
101-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
Philadelphia has played a ton of games recently; this will be their finale of a 5-game Western swing and it will be their fifth game in eight nights. They are also playing this game on back-to-back set after playing and winning in Sacramento last night by 22 points (102-80). The Sixers are quite fatigued so we do not expect Philadelphia to push the pace tonight. Head coach Doug Collins knows his team is tired so he will not play Andre Iguodala tonight and he has also given Elton Brand the choice to sit out as well. This game means little to the Sixers in the big playoff picture, so this is basically a
|
03-19-11 |
Cincinnati +4.5 v. Connecticut |
|
58-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
Going into their game on Thursday, everybody (including us) thought Connecticut would be in for a tough game with Bucknell. After all, the Huskies did just win 5 games in 5 nights to win the Big East conference tournament so that run had to take a lot out of them, right? Connecticut beat Bucknell by 29 points (81-52), so obviously the Huskies had plenty left in the tank. Off such a big performance, Connecticut will be a popular choice tonight, especially in this short pointspread range. But this is the time to play against them because this is the spot in which their fatigue will set in.
This is also an unusual early tournament game because it is between two conference opponents. So there
|
03-19-11 |
Kansas State v. Wisconsin -3 |
|
65-70 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
|
After watching Kansas St beat Utah St on Thursday night, we saw absolutely nothing from the Wildcats that should change our thoughts on them. We played against K-St often earlier this season as we simply think this team is severely overrated and not that good. Their win over Utah St was unimpressive, and if the Aggies knocked down just a few of their wide open looks then they would be playing in this game tonight. Kansas St got a ton of second-chance points and they simply got the fortunate bounce of the ball all game long. They
|
03-19-11 |
Gonzaga -1.5 v. Brigham Young |
|
67-89 |
Loss |
-103 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
03-19-11 |
UCLA v. Florida -5 |
|
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
This game will be played in Tampa which obviously gives a big site advantage to Florida. That fact is even more dramatic since UCLA is from the opposite coast and not many of their fans traveled across the country. This will be the closest thing to an actual home game for Florida as you can get in a tournament setting, and that only adds to the troubles UCLA will have in this game. The Bruins
|
03-19-11 |
Jacksonville v. Southern Methodist UNDER 123.5 |
|
62-63 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a second round game in the College Insider Tournament (CIT) and is being played at SMU which means the Mustangs will likely dictate their preferred slow, half-court pace. SMU plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation which ranks 337th (among all 345 Division-1 teams).
SMU relies heavily on the three-point shot with 42.2% of their total shots coming from beyond the arc (18th most in the nation) and 35.8% of their total points coming from three-point range (20th most) with just 45.8% coming from two-point range (310th in the nation). Jacksonville is a strong defensive team that had the best three-point defense in Atlantic Sun Conference games this season, allowing just 31.0% and overall the Dolphins allowed just 31.3% from three-point range in all games this season (27th best in the nation among all 345 Division-1 teams). Jacksonville allows just 24.1% of their opponents
|
03-18-11 |
Virginia Commonwealth v. Georgetown -5.5 |
|
74-56 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
Georgetown was playing some of the best basketball in the country early in Big East conference play. The Hoyas had won 8 straight games, but then their season took a turn for the worse when point guard Chris Wright injured his hand. Georgetown fell flat on their face, and they proceeded to lose 5 of their last 6 games of the season. They come into tonight
|
03-18-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191 |
|
108-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
Chicago played in New Jersey last night and they beat the Nets 84-73. That game was played at an extremely slow pace, and we expect more of the same tonight in Indiana. Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau had two distinct patterns when he was Boston
|
03-18-11 |
Oakland v. Texas -10 |
|
81-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 43 m |
Show
|
Oakland dominated the inferior Summit League this season and they did so with a high-octane, fast paced offense that averaged 85.6 points per game, while allowing 76.6 points per game on defense. While this style worked against weaker teams, Oakland was only 1-6 SU versus Top 50 opponents and they were dominated in most of those games with a 24-point loss at West Virginia, a 15-point loss at Purdue, an 11-point loss at Illinois, an 18-point loss at Michigan, and a 29-point loss at Ohio State. Oakland also lost by 23 points in the first round of the NCAA Tournament versus Pittsburgh last year as a 9
|
03-18-11 |
Memphis Univ. v. Arizona University -5.5 |
|
75-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
Memphis has a deceptively good 25-9 record. The Tigers are really not that good of a basketball team. They played in the terrible CUSA, a conference which has seen its teams get crushed in postseason play recently. UAB got blown out a few nights ago, and three other league teams also lost in some lower-tier tournaments during the week. And despite winning the CUSA conference tournament, Memphis was one of the worst teams in the conference based on efficiency ratings; they were actually out-scored by league opponents.
The Tigers have an extremely weak offense that cannot generate points easily. Memphis gets the majority of their points inside the paint, but they aren
|
03-18-11 |
Tex San Antonio v. Ohio State -24 |
|
46-75 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
Texas-San Antonio is in a difficult scheduling spot for this game. The Roadrunners had to play and win on Wednesday night just to get a chance to play in today
|
03-17-11 |
Utah State +2.5 v. Kansas State |
|
68-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 26 m |
Show
|
Utah St is a tough match-up for any team; the Aggies run a ton of half-court sets that are almost impossible to prepare for. And unlike in year
|
03-17-11 |
Gonzaga +1.5 v. St John's |
|
86-71 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 7 m |
Show
|
Gonzaga has been the class of the West Coast Conference for the past decade. The Zags have run roughshod over their league opponents, and they did it again this season with a 13-3 record in league play. But it was one of those three losses to St. Mary
|
03-17-11 |
Michigan State v. UCLA UNDER 125 |
|
76-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 37 m |
Show
|
This game features two of the best postseason coaches over the past decade with UCLA
|
03-17-11 |
Bucknell +10 v. Connecticut |
|
52-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 43 m |
Show
|
Connecticut was the story of conference tournament week. The Huskies won the Big East tournament after winning 5 games in 5 nights. They upgraded their seed line by about three or four spots because of their run, but that run now sets them up in a big flat spot for this game. Their effort in New York was taxing, and the fact that they have to wheel back and play tonight leaves them little recuperation time. Aside from junior Kemba Walker, Connecticut is a young team that starts 3 freshman and 1 sophomore so they also have the inexperience factor working against them in this game. This is not an easy spot for Connecticut, especially when we look at their opponent.
Bucknell fits the profile we look for when backing a lower-tier conference team in the NCAA tournament. The Bison play at a very slow pace which allows them to hang around in games where they are the less talented team. Bucknell has held 27 of their 33 opponents this year to less than 70 points, and that fact alone makes them a dangerous underdog in this pointspread range. The Bison also hit their free-throws down; they connect on 78.6% from the line.
That
|
03-17-11 |
Princeton +13.5 v. Kentucky |
|
57-59 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
Princeton has the exact profile we look for when backing a lower-tier conference team in the NCAA tournament. The Tigers play at a very slow pace which allows them to hang around in games where they are the less talented team. Princeton has held 25 of their 31 opponents this year to less than 70 points, and that fact alone makes them a dangerous underdog in this pointspread range. The Tigers also knock their free-throws down; they hit 73.4% from the line. Princeton
|
03-16-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors OVER 211 |
|
112-106 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
Dallas played in a wild game last night in Portland. The Mavericks lost 104-101 after shooting an incredible 59.7% (40-67) from the field. The pace of the game wasn
|
03-16-11 |
Duquesne v. Montana |
|
87-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
Montana has the exact profile we look for when backing a lower-tier conference team in tournament games. The Grizzlies play at a very slow pace which allows them to hang around in games where they are the less talented team. Montana has held 24 of their 31 opponents this season to less than 70 points, and only 1 opponent scored more than 70 points on their home floor. And Montana
|
03-16-11 |
Nebraska v. Wichita State -4 |
|
49-76 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
One of these teams belongs here, while the other team does not. Nebraska comes into tonight
|
03-15-11 |
UAB +5 v. Clemson |
|
52-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
03-15-11 |
Dayton v. College of Charleston -5 |
|
84-94 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
Dayton is the higher seed in the NIT tournament at # 3, but this game will played at # 6 Charleston because the NCAA tournament games will be played on Dayton
|
03-14-11 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 199 |
|
107-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
This game features a pair of teams that are struggling right now. Philadelphia comes in off a 28-point blowout loss at Milwaukee on Saturday night. That was their second loss in three games, and it appears that their demanding schedule is catching up to them. Utah is off back-to-back road losses, and the Jazz have lost 11 of their last 14 games because they simply haven
|
03-13-11 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Boston Celtics OVER 180 |
|
56-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
These two teams just met last Sunday night; the Celtics won 89-83. The scoring really slowed down after a 53-point first quarter, but there was missing offensive pieces in that game, especially for Milwaukee. The Bucks played without Andrew Bogut and Earl Boykins, and those two guys are an integral part of Milwaukee
|
03-13-11 |
Dayton v. Richmond -4.5 |
|
54-67 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
03-12-11 |
Connecticut v. Louisville -2 |
|
69-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Big East championship game figures to be an excellent display of basketball just like all of the other games have been in this tournament. Connecticut and Louisville have both been ultra impressive in their games, and both teams will once again put on a good show tonight. However, we see some significant edges for Louisville in this game, and we certainly expect the Cardinals to get the job done tonight in Madison Square Garden.
Connecticut will be playing their fifth game in as many nights, and since they also went to overtime in their game against Syracuse on Friday, the Huskies are at a big disadvantage. Louisville will be playing just their third game in as many nights, and this is the type of situation in which their double bye for this tournament becomes such a key factor. The Cardinals also played into overtime last night, but again, they still should have fresher legs than Connecticut. Louisville also matches-up well with the Huskies which gives them another major factor for this game that should propel them to victory.
In the two regular season meetings, Louisville won both games. The Cardinals
|
03-12-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +1.5 |
|
115-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
This will be the third meeting between San Antonio and Houston this season. The Spurs won the first two games on their home court, but both of those games were close as San Antonio won by 3 points in overtime and won the other by a misleading 13 points. The Spurs held just a 5-point, fourth quarter lead in the second game before stretching out their lead late. Houston has proven twice that they can be competitive with the Spurs, and we expect it once again tonight, especially with this game coming on their home floor.
San Antonio beat the Kings last night at home 108-103. That was a fast-paced game, and since the Sours have to play at Houston tonight on a back-to-back set, they are not in a good situational spot. The Spurs also have much bigger games on their horizon as they travel to play at Miami and at Dallas after tonight
|
03-11-11 |
UNLV +1 v. San Diego St |
|
72-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
UNLV head coach Lon Kruger is one of the best in the country. And he
|
03-11-11 |
Detroit Pistons +9 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
|
94-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
Detroit has had a wild up and down season. The Pistons have gone through some extreme rough patches all year, and they hit rock bottom when half of their team decided to skip a practice in protest. Those players were disciplined, and that episode is in the rear view mirror according to the players and coaches. In a weird way, that revolt actually ignited Detroit
|
03-10-11 |
Oklahoma v. Texas -13.5 |
|
54-74 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma pulled off a big upset last night when they knocked off Baylor. The Sonners
|
03-10-11 |
St John's v. Syracuse -2.5 |
|
73-79 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
St. John
|