Steve Merril Basketball Picks
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
04-11-09 |
Orlando Magic -6.5 v. New Jersey Nets |
|
93-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Magic will be in a focused mood tonight after an embarrassing home loss last night versus New York as an 11-point favorite. The Magic are still battling Boston for the #2 seed in the Eastern conference and home court advantage in a likely second round matchup.
Orlando head coach Stan Van Gundy was openly critical of his team
|
04-10-09 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers -1 |
|
98-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
We used the Lakers as a Best Bet winner last night as they were in a solid home revenge situation against a Denver squad that was traveling without rest. The situation now works against the Lakers on Friday night as Los Angeles is now the team traveling without rest and the Lakers might be a bit flat after their big national TV win.
Portland has one of the strongest home courts in the league as the Blazers are a young, but talented team that plays much better at home where they stand 31-7 SU and 23-14 ATS with an average win by +9.4 points per game. Portland enters in excellent current form tonight as they are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in their past seven games which includes a 21-point home win versus Utah last week and a 12-point road win at San Antonio on Wednesday.
The Trail Blazers fit a solid 88-57 ATS momentum situation and the home team has dominated this head-to-head series with a current 14-1 SU run the past four years, including a perfect 7-0 SU home record the past two seasons, including the Blazers easy 111-94 win versus the Lakers on March 9th.
Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-) as a 1 unit play.
|
04-09-09 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -8.5 |
|
102-116 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Lakers are the best team in the NBA and they have already clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, however the Lakers are battling Cleveland for home court edge in the NBA Finals and the Lakers are still playing hard as evident by their 4-0 SU record this month.
Los Angeles will be especially focused tonight as they have a major revenge motive after an embarrassing 90-79 road loss at Denver on February 27th. It was the Lakers worst offensive performance of the season as they shot just 29.8% from the field and a miserable 2-for-21 (9.5%) from three-point range. The Lakers were a tired team in that game as they were coming off a high-scoring shootout win versus Phoenix, 132-106, the previous night and had to travel without rest and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver.
Los Angeles now qualifies in a strong 73-46 ATS revenge situation and they also fit a solid 114-72 ATS momentum situation after their easy 122-104 win versus Sacramento on Tuesday. The Lakers won the first two meetings versus Denver this season and Los Angeles was a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in all seven games last season, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS sweep in the first round of the playoffs. Los Angeles is 5-0 SU/ATS in all home games versus Denver the past two seasons with easy wins by 14, 15, 14, 17, and 28 point margins.
Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.
|
04-08-09 |
Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -3 |
|
101-130 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
Utah has the strongest home court edge in the NBA, but the Jazz have been a much weaker team on the road where they stand just 15-23 SU this season, compared to 32-7 SU in Salt Lake City.
Dallas has also exhibited a large home/road dichotomy this season with a 28-9 SU home record, compared to the Maverick
|