Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-22-15 | UCLA v. Oregon State -1 | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
UCLA is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best. The Bruins play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition. But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UCLA’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Bruins will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Oregon State plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. UCLA has been held to less than 70 points six times this season with the Bruins going 0-6 SU and ATS in those games. It’s highly unlikely that UCLA will score more than 70 points tonight since Oregon State has held 15 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points this season; they’ve held all ten of their home opponents to 64 points or less. Oregon State is quietly having a very good season. The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle. He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents. The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense. Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 51.6 points per game on 34% shooting from the field and 25.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season. The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best. “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker. “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.” Oregon State’s style will frustrate UCLA, so we’ll back the Beavers in this game on Thursday night. 9* Play OREGON STATE (-). |
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01-21-15 | Missouri +9 v. Texas A&M | 50-62 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Missouri comes into tonight’s game off three straight losses with two of them being close defeats. The Tigers lost by 6 points on the road at Auburn, and in their last game, Missouri came up short in a 59-51 home loss to Tennessee. The Wildcats are a scrappy team that only gets blown out by superior teams, and Texas A&M is anything but that. Missouri and Texas A&M both play at a slow pace, so this game figures to be a half-court grinder. The Tigers match-up extremely well with Texas A&M as they have a strong 2-point defense as only 47% of their opponents’ points are scored from inside the arc. Texas A&M’s offense is reliant on 2-point shooting (58% of their points scored), but the Aggies will have trouble scoring inside on Missouri. Texas A&M is off an impressive 67-64 comeback win at LSU on Saturday afternoon. That win was somewhat expected as the Aggies’ slow-paced style really frustrated an LSU team that likes to play up-tempo basketball. Prior to that win, Texas A&M was just 3-3 SU in their previous six games with two of the wins coming by 9 points or less. Texas A&M’s offense has struggled to score points recently as they are only averaging 61.4 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 23.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Missouri in this game on Wednesday night. 10* Play MISSOURI (+). |
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01-20-15 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -2.5 | 49-52 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Minnesota snapped their 5-game losing streak with an 89-80 home win over Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. Despite the win, the Golden Gophers failed to cover the pointspread for the sixth consecutive time. Minnesota is just 12-7 after opening the season with an 11-2 record. They are just 2-5 overall on the road, including 0-3 in Big 10 road games. Minnesota’s offense has really struggled on the road in conference play while scoring just 68, 58, and 57 points in their three games. Things are not going to get any easier tonight, especially against a strong Nebraska defense. Minnesota’s defense is also in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 72.6 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field over their last five games. Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament. But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have seven losses on the season. However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and against teams with similar talent like Minnesota, the Cornhuskers can hold their own. Nebraska plays at a slow pace and they have a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 61.2 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land. Minnesota is just 1-5 SU against power conferences this season when held to less than 70 points with all five losses coming by 4 points or more. We’ll lay the points with Nebraska in this game on Tuesday night. 10* Play NEBRASKA (-). |
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01-20-15 | Kansas State +10 v. Iowa State | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Kansas State is only 11-7 on the season, but the Wildcats have been a competitive bunch. Five of Kansas State’s seven losses this season have come by single digits, and a similar outcome will be good enough in tonight’s game against Iowa State. The Wildcats play at an extremely slow pace, and their half court defense and interior height have frustrated opponents all season. Kansas State’s defense is allowing just 62.4 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land this season. Overall, Kansas State has held 12 straight opponents to 66 points or less, including all five Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best. The Cyclones play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition. But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Kansas State plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Iowa State is just 1-2 SU when held to less than 70 points this season with their lone win coming by just 2 points (63-61) at home over Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are also off their big 86-81 home win over Kansas on Saturday night, so this is a letdown spot as well. Kansas State will slow this game to a crawl, and since Iowa State can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll take the points with the Wildcats in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play KANSAS STATE (+). |
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01-17-15 | BYU v. St. Mary's -1 | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
BYU is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best. The Cougars play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition. But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, BYU’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Cougars will not get their preferred style of play tonight as St. Mary’s plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. St. Mary’s has held 14 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points this season. BYU has been held to less than 70 points twice this season. The Cougars are 0-2 in those games, losing by 4 and 6 points. BYU will also be shorthanded for tonight’s game as three key contributors are likely to miss this game with injuries. St. Mary’s is 14-3 on the season, and they come into tonight’s game on an 8-game winning streak. St. Mary’s plays at an extremely slow pace, and their half court defense and interior height have frustrated opponents all season. The Gaels’ defense is allowing just 62.2 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land this season. St. Mary’s has held nine consecutive opponents to 68 points or less, including seven of those opponents to 60 points or less. St. Mary’s will slow this game to a crawl, and since BYU can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll lay the points with the Gaels in this game on Saturday night. 10* Play ST. MARY’S (-). |
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01-17-15 | Ole Miss +8.5 v. Arkansas | 96-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Mississippi and Arkansas play a similar style of basketball as both teams love to run up and down the court while getting easy baskets in transition. The Rebels have been quite impressive on both ends of the court this season, and they’ve been competitive in their losses. Five of Mississippi’s six losses this season have come by 7 points or less, and their lone blowout loss came against TCU who plays a very slow, half-court style which frustrates the Rebels. Tonight’s game in Arkansas will allow Mississippi to play at their preferred pace, and they match-up extremely well against the Razorbacks. The Rebels attack the paint as 51% of their points scored come from inside the arc. Arkansas has a soft interior defense as 53% of the points scored on them come from inside the arc. Mississippi’s offense has been terrific on the road where they are averaging 78.2 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land. Arkansas is off a 74-69 loss in Tennessee in their last game. The Razorbacks were stymied in the half-court, and their offense simply could not generate enough points inside the paint. Arkansas will face a similar dilemma tonight even though they will get to play at their preferred fast pace. The Razorbacks score 53% of their points from 2-point range, but Mississippi has one of the best 2-point defenses in the country. The Rebels only allow opponents to score 41% of their points from 2-point range. Mississippi’s weakness is 3-point defense, but Arkansas only scores 27% of their points from beyond the arc. Mississippi holds the edges on both ends of the court, and since they will also get their preferred pace, we’ll take the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+). |
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01-17-15 | Oregon State +1 v. Washington State | 62-47 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Oregon State is quietly having a very good season. The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle. He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents. The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense. Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 56.4 points per game on 36.9% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land. The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best. “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker. “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.” Washington State is a completely different team than Oregon State. The Cougars play at an extremely fast pace under new head coach Ernie Kent. Washington State is all offense and no defense, and they are completely lost when forced to play in a half court, slow-paced game. The Cougars have been held to less than 70 points seven times this season. Washington State is a terrible 1-6 SU in those games with their lone win coming by just 3 points (69-66) over California. This line has gone nuts because of the recent suspension of Oregon State’s Victor Robbins right before tipoff in their last game at Washington. This game is all about pace, so the Beavers will not be hampered by the loss of Robbins in this game as they’ll need to win it with their defense anyway. We’ll take the points with the Beavers in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play OREGON STATE (+). |
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01-17-15 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Michigan | 54-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Northwestern comes into tonight’s game off three straight losses with two of them being close defeats. The Wildcats took Michigan State to overtime before losing 84-77 on the road, and in their last game, Northwestern came up just short in a 72-67 home loss to Illinois. The Wildcats are a scrappy team that only gets blown out to superior teams, and Michigan is anything but that. Northwestern and Michigan both play at a slow pace, so this game figures to be a half-court grinder. The Wildcats match-up extremely well with Michigan as they have a strong 3-point defense and a weak 2-point defense. Michigan’s offense is reliant on 3-point shooting (37% of their points scored) as only 45% of the points they score come form inside the arc. Michigan is really struggling; the Wolverines are just 10-7 on the season. Michigan is just 4-6 over their last ten games with three of their four wins coming by 9 points or less. Michigan’s offense has struggled to score points consistently this season as they are only averaging 64.4 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land. Michigan will now face another very good defense as Northwestern is only allowing 62.4 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field this season. In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+). |
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01-15-15 | Nebraska +15 v. Wisconsin | 55-70 | Push | 0 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament. But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have six losses on the season. However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and we saw the team they projected to be over their last two games. The Cornhuskers beat Rutgers 65-49, and they beat Illinois 53-43. Nebraska head coach Tim Miles likes where his team is headed: “I am excited to get this team going and get better and better.” The Cornhuskers play at a slow pace and they have a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 60.7 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 27.6% shooting from three-point land. Wisconsin is a very good team that will likely make a deep run in the NCAA tournament if they can get completely healthy. The Badgers are not healthy right now as starting point guard Traevon Jackson brook his foot in their last game, and center Frank Kaminsky is returning from a concussion. Wisconsin lost their last game at Rutgers, a team Nebraska just beat by 16 points. The Badgers haven’t been winning by margin lately as their last home game was only a 7-point win over Purdue. This game will be a slow-paced, low-scoring defensive slugfest, and that makes the points extremely valuable. We’ll take the points with Nebraska in this game on Thursday night. 9* Play NEBRASKA (+). |
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01-15-15 | Oregon State +7 v. Washington | 43-56 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Oregon State is quietly having a very good season. The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle. He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents. The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense. Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 56.4 points per game on 36.6% shooting from the field and 27.9% shooting from three-point land. The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best. “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker. “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.” Washington started this season at 11-0, but the Huskies have since lost four consecutive games. One of those losses was an inexcusable home defeat to Stony Brook, and that game exposed Washington’s phony undefeated record. The Huskies lost at California and then at Stanford, and in a bounce back game at home against their in-state rival, they lost to Washington State as 11.5-point favorites. Washington will now be forced into a half-court grinder, and the Huskies are not built to win in low-scoring games. The Huskies are struggling on offense right now as they’ve shot just 41.8% (104-249) from the field in their last four games. Things won’t get any easier tonight against the stout Oregon State defense. We’ll take the points with the Beavers in this game on Thursday night. 9* Play OREGON STATE (+). |
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01-14-15 | Illinois v. Northwestern +2 | 72-67 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Illinois comes into this game with an 11-6 record, but ten of those wins came with their best player, Rayvonte Rice, on the court. Illinois won their first game without Rice on the court last Wednesday night when they beat #11 Maryland 64-57 as 1-point home underdogs. The Illini regressed off that win as they lost 53-43 at Nebraska in their last game. Illinois has struggled to score points on the road this season as they are only averaging 57.5 points per game on 36.1% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point land. Illinois will now face another very good defense as Northwestern is only allowing 61.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field this season. Northwestern comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back losses, so we fully expect a big effort, especially since Illinois is their in-state rival. The Wildcats had to play Wisconsin and Michigan State in their last two games, so they are taking a major step-down in class for this game. Northwestern was impressive in their last game as they took Michigan State to overtime before losing 84-77. The Wildcats are 7-3 at home this season, and considering their last home game resulted in an embarrassing 81-58 loss to Wisconsin, this is a pretty big game that may determine the rest of Northwestern’s season. We’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+). |
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01-14-15 | UCLA -5 v. USC | 83-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented. The Bruins are just 10-7 on the season, but the team is playing much better basketball right now. UCLA has won back-to-back games over Stanford and California, so they come into this rivalry game with plenty of confidence. UCLA needs to play fast in order to be a their best, and they will get their preferred pace tonight against USC. The Bruins have a good offense that is averaging 72.8 points per game. UCLA will score at will on a USC defense that is in poor current form; they’ve allowed 78 points or more in three of their last four games. The Bruins will also own a tremendous matchup advantage in this game as they have a strong 2-point defense and only allow 46% of opponents’ points to be scored inside the paint. USC has a weak 3-point shooting team, so they will be unable to score consistently in this game. USC is in their second season under head coach Andy Enfield; he of the Florida Gulf Coast NCAA tournament run fame. Enfield has struggled to implement his frenetic style of play at USC as he simply doesn’t have the right personnel to run his schemes. The Trojans are in poor current form as they’ve lost three of their last four games in conference play. USC’s defense has allowed 71.2 points per game on 44% shooting from the field over their last five games. The Trojans’ offense has been unable to help as they are only averaging 66.2 points per game over their last five games. UCLA has played a brutal schedule against Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Utah. They are getting another major class relief in this game tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the better team. 9* Play UCLA (-). |
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01-14-15 | Iowa State v. Baylor -1.5 | 73-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Iowa State is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best. The Cyclones play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition. But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Baylor plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Iowa State has played two similar, slow-paced teams this season; they lost 64-60 to South Carolina and 72-63 to Maryland. Overall, Iowa State is just 1-2 SU when held to less than 70 points this season with their lone win coming by just 2 points (63-61) at home over Oklahoma State. Baylor is off a 66-59 overtime road win at TCU on Saturday afternoon. That was a nice win for Baylor, especially since they were coming off a 56-55 home loss to Kansas in their previous game. Baylor plays at an extremely slow pace, and their half court defense and interior height have frustrated opponents all season. The Bears’ defense is allowing just 52.8 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 27.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season. Overall, Baylor has held 14 of their 15 opponents to 66 points or less, including all nine of their home opponents. Baylor will slow this game to a crawl, and since Iowa State can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll lay the points with the Bears in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play BAYLOR (-). |
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01-13-15 | Iowa +3 v. Minnesota | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Iowa is a good team that is extremely well-coached by Fran McCaffery. The Hawkeyes have actually played better on the road than at home this season. Iowa is a perfect 2-0 in true road games while they have two out of conference losses at home. The Hawkeyes are a team that needs to face an opponent that plays at a quick tempo to be at their best; they won at North Carolina earlier this season. Iowa will get their pace against Minnesota tonight, so we expect a good effort from the Hawkeyes. Iowa’s defense has been fantastic this season as they are only giving up 60.2 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land. Their defense has been even better on the road where they are only allowing 60 points per game on 34.4% shooting from the field and 21.3% shooting from three-point land. Minnesota is a reeling team right now. The Golden Gophers have lost four consecutive games after opening the season with an 11-2 record. Granted, three of those four losses were on the road. But aside from Maryland, the competition was mediocre at best. Minnesota’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 68 points or less in regulation time in their last four games. Things are not going to get any easier tonight, especially against a strong Iowa defense. Minnesota’s defense is also in terrible form as they’ve allowed 70 points or more in five of their last six games. Iowa is the better team, so we’ll take the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night. 10* Play IOWA (+). |
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01-13-15 | Michigan +9.5 v. Ohio State | 52-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Michigan and Ohio State are bitter rivals, and their games are often close. This series has been dominated by the Wolverines lately as they’ve won the last three meetings. Ohio State’s last win over Michigan came by just 3 points, so the results show that Michigan simply matches-up extremely well versus Ohio State. The Wolverines play a tricky style under head coach John Beilein, and since he changed the Michigan rotation, the team has played their best basketball of the season. Michigan is 4-1 over their last five games; the Wolverines went 0-4 in their previous four games. The Wolverines come into tonight’s game off a confidence-building home win over Minnesota, a game they trailed by 9 points with just over nine minutes left to play. Michigan won their last conference road game at Penn State, so they’ll have plenty of confidence going into this game. Ohio State comes into this game off a 69-66 loss in Indiana on Saturday afternoon. The Buckeyes may also be flat for this game considering they likely partied last night after the football team won the National Championship. Ohio State teams under head coach Thad Matta have had a reputation as a strong defensive club that suffocated teams in the half court. This year’s team is the complete opposite as their defensive play has been below average this season. They’ve allowed 69 points or more in three of their last four games, and since they’ve allowed Michigan to score 70 points or more in the last three meetings, the Buckeyes will once again have trouble with the Wolverines’ offense. We’ll take the big points with Michigan in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play MICHIGAN (+). |
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01-13-15 | Arkansas v. Tennessee +3.5 | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Arkansas is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best. The Razorbacks play an up-tempo style for 40 full minutes while wearing out their opponents in the process. Their style gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Arkansas’ offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Razorbacks will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Tennessee plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Arkansas played one similar team on the road this season, and they lost 68-65 at Clemson in overtime. Arkansas is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming by just 6 and 4 points despite playing fast and scoring 78 and 79 points in those games. Tennessee is off an embarrassing home loss to Alabama in their last game on Saturday afternoon. The Volunteers only scored 38 points in that 18-point loss (56-38), and it’s a good thing that they’ll play another game soon in order to atone for that poor showing. Tennessee shot just 31.1% (14-45) from the field and 11.8% (2-17) from three-point land. The Volunteers’ offense will play much better tonight, especially against an Arkansas defense that is allowing 77.5 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land on the road this season. Tennessee’s defense has held all eight of their home opponents to 64 points or less this season, and since Arkansas can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll take the points with the Vols in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play TENNESSEE (+). |
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01-11-15 | Illinois v. Nebraska -2.5 | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Illinois comes into this game with an 11-5 record, but ten of those wins came with their best player, Rayvonte Rice, on the court. Illinois won their first game without Rice on the court on Wednesday night when they beat #11 Maryland 64-57 as 1-point home underdogs. The Illini will regress off that win, especially since they have to take to the road and face a tough Nebraska defense. Illinois has struggle to score points on the road this season as they are only averaging 62.3 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land. Illinois will now face a very good Cornhuskers’ defense that is only allowing 61.9 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 28.3% shooting from three-point land this season. Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament. But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have six losses on the season. However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and we saw the team they projected to be in their 65-49 win over Rutgers on Thursday night. The Cornhuskers hold a huge height advantage in this game, so they will dominate the paint against Illinois. Nebraska head coach Tim Miles likes where his team is headed: “I am excited to get this team going and get better and better.” This is a much bigger game for Nebraska, so we’ll lay the points on Sunday night. 9* Play NEBRASKA (-). |
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01-10-15 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Ole Miss | 49-65 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
South Carolina comes into this game off a 72-68 home loss to Florida on Wednesday night. The Gamecocks were in a tough spot for that game after they just beat #16 Iowa State 64-60 as 6.5-point underdogs at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. South Carolina figured to play with a hangover, especially since they were going to face a Florida team that plays slow, half-court basketball; the Gamecocks shot just 40.8% (20-49) from the field. South Carolina will play much better in this game as they will be able to play their style since Mississippi also likes to run and play up-tempo basketball. South Carolina is a much improved team in head coach Frank Martin’s third year. The Gamecocks are 13-6 over their last 19 games dating back to last season with all four of their losses this season coming by 5 points or less. Mississippi is off a heartbreaking 89-86 overtime loss in Kentucky on Tuesday night. The Rebels played an exceptional game as they shot 49.2% (29-59) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land. They also hit 86.4% (19-22) from the free throw line. The Rebels can’t play any better than they did, and since they lost after leading with 3 minutes to play in regulation time, we expect Mississippi to play tonight’s game with a major hangover. The Rebels do have a good offense, but South Carolina plays terrific defense. The Gamecocks are holding their opponents to just 59 points per game on 28.6% shooting from the field and an incredible 19.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season. These two teams are equals, but this is a terrible situational spot for Mississippi, so we’ll take the points with South Carolina in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+). |
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01-10-15 | Baylor v. TCU +1.5 | 66-59 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Baylor and TCU both come into this game off back-to-back losses, but the Horned Frogs are in a better position to bounce back strong with a win. Baylor just hosted league powerhouse Kansas on Wednesday night, and the Bears lost 56-55. They lost and only scored 55 points on their home court despite hitting 53.3% (8-15) from three-point land. Kansas was bad from beyond the arc as they hit just 29.4% (5-17), and the Jayhawks only had 6 free throw attempts in the entire game. Baylor had no excuse for losing that game, and since they must now take to the road on short rest, we do not expect a good effort from the Bears in this game. Baylor has played three true road games this season, going 2-1 SU with their wins coming by just 3 and 4 points. The Bears are averaging just 66 points per game on 42.1% shooting from the field away from home this season. TCU also lost on Wednesday night, but their 58-53 defeat at Kansas State was due to terrible shooting. The Horned Frogs shot just 41.3% (19-46) from the field and an ugly 11.1% (1-9) from three-point land; leading scorer Kyan Anderson only had 8 points. It’s almost impossible to win on the road while shooting as bad as TCU did, so the fact they only lost by 5 points speaks volumes about their defense. Overall, the Horned Frogs are holding opponents to just 55.2 points per game on 35.3% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land. TCU’s stout defense will limit Baylor’s offensive production, especially since the Bears have struggled to score points on the road this season. TCU’s offense will play much better in this game considering they average 78.3 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season. We’ll back TCU in this game on Saturday afternoon. 9* Play TCU (+). |
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01-08-15 | Stanford v. UCLA +1 | 81-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Stanford came thru for us with a Best Bet winner when they beat Washington 68-60 in overtime on Sunday night. That was their second overtime game in their last four games, so the Cardinal are not dominating their opponents. Stanford has played three true road games so far this season, and they are just 1-2 SU in those games with the lone win coming in overtime. The Cardinal defense has been non-existent away from home this season. Stanford is giving up 79 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land. That defense is going to get torched by a UCLA offense that plays their best basketball on their home court. UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented. The Bruins are just 8-7 on the season, but seven of those wins have come at home. UCLA’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 85 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land. The Bruins will own a tremendous matchup advantage in this game as they have a strong 2-point defense and only allow 46.3% of opponents’ points to be scored inside the paint. Stanford has a weak 3-point shooting team, so they will be unable to score consistently in this game. UCLA has played their last four games on the road, and they’ve played a brutal schedule against Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Utah. They are getting a major class relief tonight, and we expect a big effort from UCLA in this game. 10* Play UCLA (+). |
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01-07-15 | Colorado +10.5 v. Utah | 49-74 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Colorado and Utah are mirror images of one another. Both teams love to play slow, half-court basketball. Colorado is an experienced team that will have three of the four best players on the court tonight. The Buffaloes play tenacious defense as they are only allowing 60.8 points per game on 38.9% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land. Colorado also gets to the free throw line a lot, and they make the most of those trips as they are converting on 74.6% of their attempts this season. The Buffaloes are strong on the glass as well, and they’ve dominated Utah with a 65-46 rebounding edge in the last two meetings. Utah is a very good team that comes into this game with a 12-2 record, including a perfect 10-0 mark at home. However, the Utes usually own a major advantage when playing their slow pace against teams that want to get out and run. The Pac 12 conference as a whole likes to play fast, but Colorado is the one team that plays just as slow as Utah. That negates a huge edge for Utah, and it’s why we’ve seen these two teams play close, competitive games recently. The average winning margin over the last four meetings has been just 7 points per game. We expect this game to a be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so we’ll take the big points with Colorado on Wednesday night. 9* Play COLORADO (+). |
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01-06-15 | Providence +6 v. Butler | 66-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Providence is having a solid season with an 11-4 SU record, but they come into tonight’s game off a road loss at Marquette on Saturday afternoon. The Friars stayed on the road after that game, so they’ll be ready with a big bounce back effort tonight against Butler. The Friars beat Butler twice last season, including an 87-81 win in Hinkle Fieldhouse; that win gives them a lot of confidence for this game, especially since the Friars have yet to win a true road game this season. “We want to get us a road win,” said head coach Ed Cooley. “That’s our challenge. We’ve had three road games that didn’t go our way. We’ll be ready.” The team is still full of confidence as well: “As a team we’ve played great,” said Kris Dunn. “We’re really focused and have great team chemistry right now.” 10* Play PROVIDENCE (+). |
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01-06-15 | Marquette v. Georgetown -8.5 | 59-65 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Marquette is surprisingly having a decent season so far as they come into tonight’s game against Georgetown with a 9-5 record. The Golden Eagles are only playing with eight scholarship players this season after two of their better players transferred out a few weeks ago. Marquette is basically a two-man team with Luke Fischer and Matt Carlino, but tonight they will likely be a one-man team as Fischer will face a bevy of big post players from Georgetown who will neutralize him inside the paint. That means Carlino will have to carry the Marquette offense, and one guy is not going to keep the Golden Eagles in this game, especially on the road. Marquette is 0-2 in true road games this season, losing at Ohio State and at DePaul who is a bottom team in the Big East conference. Georgetown is 9-4 on the season, including a 7-1 record at home. Their lone home loss came to Kansas by just 5 points (75-70), so there’s no shame in that defeat. The Hoyas played a tough non-conference schedule against teams like Wisconsin, Butler, and Florida. Georgetown is playing at a much quicker pace this season, and their offense has flourished because of it. The Hoyas are averaging 77.8 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season. Georgetown’s defense has also been rock solid at home where they are holding opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 36.9% shooting from the field and 29.9% shooting from three-point land. Georgetown is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play GEORGETOWN (-). |
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01-05-15 | Indiana v. Michigan State -8.5 | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Indiana has overachieved big time this season. The Hoosiers come into this game with an 11-3 SU record, including a 1-0 mark in conference play after winning in Nebraska 70-65 as 4-point underdogs. Indiana was picked to finish 10th in the Big 10 this season after losing five players from last year’s team. The Hoosiers want to play as fast as possible, and so far this season, they’ve been able to do that in every game. Indiana has scored 70 points or more in every game this season, but that will come to an end tonight against Michigan State. The Hoosiers will be forced to play a half-court grinder, and they will be clueless in playing that style of basketball. This will be just their second true road game of the season, and it comes against a much better opponent than they just played. Michigan State is only 9-5 on the season, but they played a brutal non-conference schedule. The Spartans played Duke, Kansas, and Notre Dame all away from home. Michigan State also had to begin conference play against Maryland who is very good and ranked #11 in the country. Michigan State also had to play those games with injuries to their best players. The Spartans are healthier now, and they are taking a major step-down in class for this game. Michigan State plays at a slow pace while playing ferocious defense. The Spartans are only allowing 57.2 points per game on 34.8% shooting from the field and 26.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season. All six of their home wins have come by 16 points or more, so when they win, they tend to blow their opponents out. We expect Michigan State to win this game easily, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans on Monday night. 9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-). |
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01-04-15 | Washington v. Stanford -5.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Washington started this season at 11-0, but the Huskies have since lost back-to-back games. One of those losses was an inexcusable home defeat to Stony Brook, and that game exposed Washington’s phony undefeated record. The Huskies lost at California in their last game on Friday night, and with a quick turnaround on the road again, Washington had no time to practice on their weaknesses. The Huskies are struggling on offense right now as they shot just 39.5% (51-129) from the field in their last two games. They also turned the ball over 24 times in those games, allowing their opponents easy baskets in transition. Washington’s perimeter defense has been terrible as well, allowing 43.8% (14-32) shooting from three-point land in their last two games. Stanford is a solid team loaded with experienced veterans. The Cardinal come into this game from the opposite direction as they’ve won three straight games after losing by 2 points (79-77) at BYU. The Cardinal were impressive in their 74-71 overtime win at Texas three games back, and that win shows how good this team can be. Stanford is a perfect 7-0 at home this season with every win coming by 6 points or more; their home wins have come by an average of 18.3 points per game. Stanford is averaging 71.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season. Their defense has been stifling at home, giving up just 53.6 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field. Stanford is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night. 9* Play STANFORD (-). |
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01-03-15 | Virginia v. Miami (FL) +6.5 | 89-80 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Virginia is a good team that is well coached. The Cavaliers come into tonight’s game in Miami with a perfect 12-0 record. Virginia was terrific last season while winning 30 games and earning a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They returned seven of their top nine players from last season, so they projected to be a very good team once again. However, the two players they lost, Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, were vital components to their team. Harris was the leading scorer while Mitchell was their best defender. Head coach Tony Bennett knows how important those two guys were to the team’s success. “That was what set our team apart, how cohesive they were. You take away two talented guys, and it’s a different identity and mentality. Can we replace those intangibles Joe and Akil brought at such a high level?” So far, the Cavaliers have done that. But the competition gets much tougher now in conference play, and the Cavaliers will get a stiff test tonight against the Hurricanes. Miami came flying out of the gates this season; the Hurricanes opened with eight consecutive wins. They beat Florida, Drexel, and Illinois who are halfway decent. But after their hot start, the team got complacent and lost against poor teams like Green Bay and Eastern Kentucky. They also lost at Providence, but the Friars are a good team. Miami righted the ship in their last game as they waxed an inferior Charleston 67-40. The Hurricanes rely on hitting three’s to win, and Virginia’s defense allows teams to shoot a lot of open three’s as they prefer to limit points inside the paint. If Miami hits their open shots, they’ll be in this game until the end with a very good shot at winning outright. The Hurricanes also like to play slow, so Virginia’s dawdling pace will not be a factor. In a game that will come right down to the wire, we’ll take the points in a low-scoring defensive slugfest. 9* Play MIAMI, FL (+). |
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12-31-14 | Creighton v. Providence -5 | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Creighton comes into this game with a 9-4 record, but the majority of those wins have come against inferior competition. The Bluejays are a shell of the teams they’ve had in recent years that won 27, 28, and 29 games. Creighton returns just one starter from last season’s team which featured National Player of the Year Doug McDermott who is now in the NBA. The four players Creighton lost averaged 51 points per game, and that’s why their offense has struggled mightily this season. Creighton is shooting just 43.2% from the field, and their offense will have a lot of trouble scoring in this game against a very good Providence defense that is only allowing 61.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field. “I think our season has been one of inconsistency, which is somewhat typical when you have as many guys in new roles as we have,” Creighton head coach Greg McDermott said. “I think we’re about where we could be. Providence will be a heck of a challenge for us.” Providence is set to have a big season. The Friars come into this game with a 10-3 record with one of those losses coming at Kentucky. Providence has a fantastic offense that is averaging 70.6 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field. Kris Dunn is their best player, and he and his teammates are ready for this game: “We’re really excited to finally be starting the Big East season,” Dunn said. “As a team we’ve played great. We’re really focused and have great team chemistry right now.” Providence head coach Ed Cooley also likes where his team is at right now. “Mentally and physically we’re as prepared for a game as any since we’ve been here,” Cooley said. Providence is simply the much better team, and with focus and motivation, we’ll lay the points with the Friars in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play PROVIDENCE (-). |
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12-23-14 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Dayton | 61-75 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech and Dayton both play a similar style of basketball. The two teams play at a controlled pace while setting up their offense in the half court. The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points. Georgia Tech’s defense has been terrific; the Yellow Jackets have held eight of their ten opponents to 69 points or less. Overall this season, Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to just 60.9 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 27.1% shooting from three-point land. The Yellow Jackets also have motivation tonight as they are looking to avenge a 10-point home loss to Dayton last season. Georgia Tech was an 8-point favorite in that game, so there’s value in getting the Yellow Jackets plus a handful of points in this game. Dayton is also 8-2 on the season, but things are going to get much tougher for the Flyers going forward. Dayton is basically a one-man team right now with Jordan Siebert carrying the scoring burden. The Flyers just kicked their two big men off the team after starter Devon Scott and backup Jalen Robinson were involved in a trespassing case on campus. That duo combined for 12.3 points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game. Dayton is now an extremely thin and short team as no player is taller than 6-foot-6. Georgia Tech has a big post presence, so the Yellow Jackets will have a big edge inside the paint in this game. In what projects to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, we’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+). |
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12-20-14 | Northern Iowa +4 v. Iowa | 56-44 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
This game will be played on a neutral floor, so neither team will have the home court edge. Northern Iowa and Iowa both come into this game off losses, so we can expect good efforts by both teams. Northern Iowa is 9-1 on the season, and a big part of that success has been the Panthers getting back to their slow and defensive ways. Northern Iowa tried to play a different style of basketball over the last couple of seasons, and it simply didn’t work out. But head coach Ben Jacobson reverted back to the old ways, and the results have been terrific. Northern Iowa plays at an extremely slow pace while suffocating their opponents with defense in the half court. The Panthers are allowing just 59 points per game this season. Northern Iowa has held nine of their ten opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season. Iowa is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best. The Hawkeyes have struggled mightily with their half court offense this season, so this is not a good match-up for them at all. Northern Iowa routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions; Iowa has yet to play in such a game this season. Iowa has scored less than 70 points in three games against power conference teams this season. The Hawkeyes went just 1-2 SU in those games with the win coming by just 5 points over North Carolina. That was a strange game considering the Tar Heels also play at a fast pace, so the slow-paced win can be discounted. We expect Northern Iowa to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll take the points with the Panthers on Saturday night. 9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (+). |
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12-13-14 | Gonzaga -5.5 v. UCLA | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, and they have a legitimate shot at making a very deep run in the NCAA tournament in March. The Zags come into tonight’s game with an 8-1 record with their lone loss coming by just 3 points (66-63) in overtime to a very good Arizona team. Gonzaga bounced back strongly off that heartbreaking loss as they crushed Washington State 81-66 in their last game. That’s a positive sign for Gonzaga, and we expect them to come with another strong effort in this game. The Zags have an extremely efficient offense that is averaging 81.4 points per game on 51% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land. All five of Gonzaga’s starters are averaging 10 points or more per game. The Zags also have a deep bench that can score points, and their second unit is little match for many college teams. UCLA has a good 8-2 record on the season, but the Bruins have played an extremely weak schedule. Their two games against decent competition both resulted in losses; UCLA lost 75-65 to Oklahoma and they lost 78-56 to North Carolina. Neither one of those two teams are as good as Gonzaga, so this will definitely be UCLA’s toughest game of the season so far. The Bruins love to play fast, but that will be a detriment in this game against a much better Gonzaga offense. UCLA plays little defense as they’ve given up 71 points or more in six of their ten games this season. The Bruins have trailed at the half in their last two games to inferior opponents and that’s not a good sign coming into this game. Gonzaga is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play GONZAGA (-). |
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12-13-14 | Utah +4.5 v. Kansas | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Kansas beat us on Wednesday night when they won 75-70 at Georgetown as 2-point underdogs. We have no hesitation in playing against the Jayhawks once again, especially since they are now laying a handful of points into a better team than they just faced. This game will be played on a neutral court and not on Kansas’ strong home court, so that eliminates a major edge. The Jayhawks beat Georgetown because of their hot 3-point shooting and their ability to get to the free throw line. Kansas shot 58.8% (10-17) from three-point land, and they also connected on 25 of their 32 free throw attempts. The Jayhawks struggled mightily in the half court as they shot just 37.7% (20-53) from the field in that game. Utah is 7-1 on the season with their lone loss coming by 4 points (53-49) on the road to a very good San Diego State team. The Utes beat Wichita State earlier this season, snapping their 35-game winning streak. That win showed how good the Utes are this season. Utah plays at an extremely slow pace, and that is the style of basketball that frustrates Kansas. The Utes have held seven of their eight opponents to 68 points or less this season. Overall, Utah is only allowing 57.4 points per game on 35.8% shooting from the field this season. Kansas has not been winning by big margins lately as their last three wins have come by 6, 6, and 5 points. We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take Utah plus the points on Saturday afternoon. 10* Play UTAH (+). |
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12-10-14 | Kansas v. Georgetown -1.5 | 75-70 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Kansas and Georgetown played last year with the Jayhawks winning 86-64 on their home court. Kansas had a favorable whistle in that game as they held a whopping 46-28 free throw attempts edge. The Jayhawks also shot 54.3% (25-46) from the field in that game. Kansas was simply the much better team last year, but that’s not the case this season, especially since the Jayhawks are not as good as they were after losing two players in the NBA lottery. Tonight is the rematch Georgetown has been waiting for, and it comes on the Hoyas’ home court, and we expect a much different outcome. Georgetown is 5-2 on the season with their two losses coming to good teams like Wisconsin and Butler. The Hoyas beat Florida, so they’ve been battled tested against three strong opponents. The Hoyas play at an extremely slow pace, and that is the style of basketball that frustrates Kansas. Georgetown has held all seven of their opponents to 68 points or less this season. Overall, the Hoyas are only allowing 61.9 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 26.8% shooting from three-point land. This is a much bigger game for Georgetown as a win over Kansas would boost their resume come March. The Hoyas have won 54 consecutive non-conference games on their home court, and since they are playing with a lot of motivation, we’ll back Georgetown in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play GEORGETOWN (-). |
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12-07-14 | Creighton v. Nebraska -7 | 65-55 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Creighton comes into this game with a 6-2 record, but the majority of those wins have come against inferior competition. The Bluejays are a shell of the teams they’ve had in recent years that won 27, 28, and 29 games. Creighton returns just one starter from last season’s team which featured National Player of the Year Doug McDermott who is now in the NBA. The four players Creighton lost averaged 51 points per game, and that’s why their offense has struggled mightily this season. The Bluejays have scored 68 points or less in five of their last six games. Creighton is shooting just 43.4% from the field, and their offense will have a lot of trouble scoring in this game against a very good Cornhuskers’ defense that is only allowing 63.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field. Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they are set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament. The Cornhuskers are 5-1 this season with their lone loss coming in overtime to Rhode Island. This is a huge game for Nebraska against their in-state rival, and it’s a game the Cornhuskers have had circled since losing by 15 points last season. “We were all embarrassed last year,” Nebraska coach Tim Miles said. “We have a lot to prove in this rivalry. Basketball is as good as it’s been in a long time at Nebraska. The rivalry is a big deal to me and a big deal to our program. It’s one of those games that gets marked on your calendar.” The players are also quite motivated to beat the Bluejays: “A win against Creighton would erase a lot of bad memories,” said David Rivers. Nebraska is simply the better team this year, and since they have a lot of motivation, we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night. 9* Play NEBRASKA (-). |
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12-06-14 | Rhode Island -4 v. Southern Mississippi | 75-43 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Rhode Island is 4-2 on the season with their two losses coming against Kansas and Georgia Tech. The Rams have played a brutal schedule as their five Division I opponents have a combined record of 25-9. Rhode Island comes into this game off a loss, and they’ve had five full days to prepare, so they will be ready for a big effort. “We’ve still got a bad taste in our mouths from that loss,” Jared Terrell said. “You can see it in practice. Everybody is trying to fuel each other and play harder.” Rhode Island head coach Dan Hurley also likes what he sees from his team: “I feel pretty good about where we’re at. I think the guys have responded really well.” Southern Mississippi won 77-64 in Rhode Island last season, but the Golden Eagles are a shell of that team. They return just one starter from their 29-win team of last season, and they are also playing a different style of basketball under new head coach Doc Sadler. Southern Miss is also 4-2 on the season, but their wins have come over William Carey, South Alabama, Troy, and North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles lost 59-36 at Drexel, a team that just lost to Division II University Sciences Philadelphia on Thursday night. Rhode Island is simply the better team, and with motivation to avenge last year’s loss, we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play RHODE ISLAND (-). |
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12-03-14 | Villanova v. La Salle +11 | 84-70 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a Big Five rivalry game, and these games tend to be much closer than expected. Villanova is obviously a good team as they come into this game ranked #9 in the country with a perfect 6-0 record. However, the Wildcats have played five opponents who like to play a similar fast-paced style; Villanova was simply the better team in all of those games. Villanova faced one team that likes to play at a slower pace, and that game resulted in a 60-55 win over Michigan. Tonight will also be the first true road game for Villanova this season, and it comes against an opponent that plays a style which gives the Wildcats fits. La Salle is 4-2 on the season, including a perfect 3-0 on their home court. The Explorers play at an extremely slow pace as they’ve held all six of their opponents to 68 points or less, including four opponents to 60 points or less. La Salle also matches-up extremely well with Villanova because they have a pair of big men that can control inside the paint. The Explorers also have a new addition in Auburn transfer Jordan Price who is averaging 17.7 points per game. His presence has given La Salle a true scoring threat that they’ve lacked over the last couple of seasons. La Salle will dictate the pace in this game, and since Villanova is not good at playing in the half court, we’ll take the big points with the Explorers in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play LA SALLE (+). |
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12-02-14 | Massachusetts v. LSU -2.5 | 60-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Massachusetts beat LSU 92-90 last season, but the Minutemen lost three starters from that team who combined to score 55 of their 92 points in that game. Massachusetts plays at an extremely fast pace, and that plays right into the hands of LSU. That was evident in last year’s game with 182 total points scored. The Minutemen own five wins on the season, but two of those wins have come in state against Boston College and Northeastern while one of their close losses came to Harvard. Massachusetts will now play on the home court of an opponent out of state for the first time this season, and that makes this a difficult situational and scheduling spot for the Minutemen. LSU is in the third year of head coach Johnny Jones’ system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run their fast-paced attack. The team won 20 games and advanced to the second round of the NIT tournament last season, and they have a legitimate shot to make the NCAA tournament this season. LSU also added a huge piece to their coaching staff in Eric Musselman, who is widely regarded as an uptempo coaching guru. The Tigers’ two losses this season have come against slow-paced teams when LSU was held to less than 70 points. Massachusetts is not going to hold LSU to less than 70 points, and since the Tigers are simply the better team, we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play LSU (-). |
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11-28-14 | Gonzaga v. St. John's +7 | 73-66 | Push | 0 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
This is the final of the NIT Season Tip-Off tournament, and the game will be played at Madison Square Garden. The New York venue clearly gives St. John’s a home court advantage in this game. Gonzaga has steamrolled teams en route to their 5-0 start this season. The Bulldogs are certainly a good team, but they did lose guard Josh Perkins to a broken jaw in their 88-76 win over Georgia on Wednesday night. Gonzaga shot 50% (26-52) from the field in that game, and they got to the free throw line a whopping 35 times. The Bulldogs hit an incredible 91.4% (32-35) from the free throw line, but the refs were whistle happy as the game saw a total of 70 free throw attempts. That’s unlikely to happen again tonight, especially with Gonzaga playing the home town team. St. John’s has a wealth of talent, but they don’t always bring their best effort. The Johnnies have been inconsistent under head coach Steve Lavin, but this is a huge game for St. John’s. There’s no doubt the Johnnies have the talent to be a NCAA tournament team, and a win in this game will go a long ways come March. St. John’s is off a terrific defensive game against Minnesota on Wednesday night. The Johnnies held Minnesota to just 61 points on 35.9% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land. The Golden Gophers only got to the free throw line 16 times, so Gonzaga cannot rely on getting free points in this game. Overall, St. John’s is holding opponents to just 57.3 points per game on 31.3% shooting from the field and 29.2% shooting from three-point land. St. John’s will slow this game down with their strong defense, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire. 9* Play ST. JOHN’S (+). |
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11-25-14 | Oregon v. VCU -5 | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Oregon is not in good shape for this game tonight against VCU. The Ducks just played last night, and this will be their third game in five days. Teams playing multiple games over a short span and without rest are always at a major disadvantage when facing the pressure and havoc of VCU. The Ducks are also an extremely thin team after losing six players prior to the start of the season. Oregon lost another player last night when Dwayne Benjamin injured his ankle. His absence makes the Ducks a shell of the team they projected to have before the season began. Even with a full compliment of players, Oregon was picked to finish 8th in the Pac 12 this season. The Ducks are in a terrible spot tonight, especially since their opponent is off an embarrassing performance. VCU got crushed by Villanova last night. The Rams lost 77-53, and the game wasn’t even that close. However, Villanova is a very good team built with veterans who simply do not turn the ball over. Teams like that give VCU fits; Oregon is the complete opposite as the Ducks are young and inexperienced. VCU has a veteran team that returned 69.3% of their minutes played from last year’s 26-9 team. The Rams are just one of three teams to win 26 games or more over the last five seasons; Duke and Syracuse are the others. VCU plays at a furious pace, and their up and down style wears teams out, especially early in the season. The Rams have exceptional conditioning, and against an inexperienced and thin team like Oregon, VCU’s ability to wreak havoc and create turnovers makes this game a complete mismatch. The Rams are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect VCU to bounce back strong and win this game easily on Tuesday night. 9* Play VCU (-). |
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11-21-14 | George Washington +13 v. Virginia | 42-59 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
George Washington is a very good team that returned four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Colonials also got Kethan Savage back from injury; he broke his foot in January and missed eight weeks. George Washington is 2-0 on the season with a pair of blowout wins over inferior opponents. One thing was clear in both wins; the Colonials’ exceptional defense from last season has carried over. George Washington held their opponents to just 41.6% from the field last season. So far this season, the Colonials are holding opponents to just 46.5 points per game on 31.8% shooting from the field and 21.4% shooting from three-point land. Virginia is a good team that is well coached. The Cavaliers were terrific last season while winning 30 games and earning a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They return seven of their top nine players from last season, so they project to be a very good team once again. However, the two players they lost, Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, were vital components to their team. Harris was the leading scorer while Mitchell was their best defender. Head coach Tony Bennett knows how important those two guys were to the team’s success. “That was what set our team apart, how cohesive they were. You take away two talented guys, and it’s a different identity and mentality. Can we replace those intangibles Joe and Akil brought at such a high level?” Both teams play at a slow pace and focus on defense, so we’ll take the big points in a low-scoring defensive slugfest. 9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+). |
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11-20-14 | SMU -3 v. Indiana | 68-74 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
SMU comes into this game off an ugly 72-56 loss at Gonzaga on Monday night. While the Mustangs did not play well at all in that game, there’s not much shame in that loss because Gonzaga will be one of the top teams in the country this season. Head coach Larry Brown has been able to get his team to bounce back strong off losses; SMU went 7-2 SU when playing off a loss last season with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more. The Mustangs won 27 games last season, and with their best players all back this season, SMU projects to be an excellent team once again. Indiana is 2-0 on the season with those wins coming by a combined 70 points. However, the Hoosiers played two inferior opponents in Mississippi Valley State and Texas Southern. Indiana hit an incredible 55.3% (21-38) of their three-pointers in those games which aided their big margins of victory. The Hoosiers were picked to finish 10th in the Big 10 this season, and with a huge step-up in class, we expect Indiana to regress sharply in this game. Indiana lost five of their best players from last season, including three terrific frontcourt players. The Hoosiers are extremely weak inside the paint, and they’ll be at a major disadvantage against the Mustangs in this game. SMU is simply the much better team, and since they are off a loss, we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Thursday night. 9* Play SMU (-). |
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11-18-14 | Texas Tech v. LSU -7.5 | 64-69 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Texas Tech has a lot of question marks coming into this season. The Red Raiders are picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 conference as their roster was turned upside down with players transferring in the off-season. Texas Tech has just two guys returning with any experience, and one of their better players, Aaron Ross, is out with a knee injury. Head coach Tubby Smith knows his team is in for a long season, especially early on. “We’re going to be a lot younger,” Smith said. “It’s going to take some time for our guys to mature and get experience.” LSU is set to win right away. The Tigers are in the third year of head coach Johnny Jones’ system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run their fast-paced attack. The team won 20 games and advanced to the second round of the NIT tournament last season. LSU also added a huge piece to their coaching staff in Eric Musselman, who is widely regarded as an uptempo coaching guru. LSU scored 93 points after shooting 52.2% from the field in their season opening win. The Tigers simply have too much offense for Texas Tech, and since LSU is in a better position to win right now, we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play LSU (-). |
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11-18-14 | Northeastern v. Florida State -10.5 | 76-73 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Northeastern will be a decent team this season, and they are actually picked #1 in the Colonial Athletic conference. But just how good is that conference considering Northeastern is picked to win it despite going just 11-21 overall and 7-9 in conference play last season? The Huskies will simply be out-classed in this game against Florida State, especially inside the paint and on the glass. Northeastern is also trying to work their guys into shape as their best players are all returning from injury. The Huskies only use a 7-man rotation, and that group struggled against Boston University in their season opener; they trailed 37-26 at the half before rallying for a 71-65 win. Florida State is flying well under the radar this season. The Seminoles will surprise a lot of teams this season, and we expect them to handle Northeastern pretty easily tonight. Florida State has a lot of experience and tremendous depth; eight guys played 18 minutes or more in their 81-66 season opening win over Manhattan. The Seminoles are a big team that rotates three seven-footers in the frontcourt. Florida State’s backcourt is also back to health this season after two starters missed many games last season due to injury. The Seminoles have too much offense for Northeastern; they shot 57.5% from the field with six players scoring in double digits in their first game. Florida State is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-). |
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11-17-14 | Louisiana Tech -5 v. Temple | 75-82 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech is a loaded team this season. The Bulldogs return four starters from last year’s 29-8 team that reached the quarterfinals of the NIT. Louisiana Tech head coach Michael White turned down a big offer from Tennessee to stay, knowing how good his team will be this season. Since taking over in 2011, White has led the Bulldogs to an impressive 74-31 record with 56 of those wins coming over the last two years with the current players on the roster. Louisiana Tech opened their season with a ho-hum 85-76 win over Southern. Four players scored 15 points or more, and they were aggressive in getting to the free throw line 40 times. The Bulldogs weren’t that efficient, but with a name opponent in Temple, we expect a much sharper performance in this game. Temple also comes in off a win in their season opener; the Owls beat American in a ugly 40-37 defensive slugfest. Temple went a terrible 9-22 last season, and this year doesn’t look too promising either. The Owls lost two of their top scorers from last year’s team, and the plans to replace them have been put on hold. Temple was counting on Clemson transfer Devin Coleman and UMass transfer Jesse Morgan, but both are still ineligible to play. Another transfer from Texas, Jaylen Boyd, has an ankle injury that forced his to miss the American game. Temple has a limited offense right now, and that was evident in their first game when they shot 22.9% (11-48) from the field and 26.3% (5-19) from three-point land. Louisiana Tech is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night. 9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (-). |
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11-16-14 | George Washington -4 v. Rutgers | 70-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
George Washington is set to win right away. The Colonials return four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Colonials will also get Kethan Savage back from injury; he broke his foot in January and missed eight weeks. George Washington already played a game this season, and that was a 92-40 blowout of Grambling State. That game was like a glorified practice for the Colonials, and it gives them a nice advantage coming into this game against Rutgers. George Washington had a terrific defense last season, holding opponents to just 41.6% from the field. They held Grambling State to just 28.3% (15-53) from the field and 20% (2-10) from three-point land. Rutgers has a lot of question marks coming into this season. The Scarlet Knights are picked to finish dead last in the Big 10 conference as their roster was turned upside down with players transferring in the off-season. Rutgers has just three guys returning with any experience, and their best player, Kadeem Jack, is dealing with a nagging thumb injury. He’s questionable to play in this game, and if he doesn’t, Rutgers has little chance to be competitive. Even if Jack plays, head coach Eddie Jordan said that his conditioning is way short from missing so much practice time. George Washington is in a better position to win right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night. 9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-). |
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11-14-14 | VCU -8 v. Tennessee | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Tennessee is a mess of a team and program right now. The Volunteers ousted coach Cuonzo Martin and in steps Donnie Tyndall who comes over from Southern Mississippi. After Martin left for California, players decided to leave Tennessee as well. The Vols made it to the Sweet 16 last season, but they are a shell of that team. Tennessee lost four of their five starters, and all four of their highly ranked recruits decided to go to another school. Tyndall is now being investigated for improper actions while at Southern Mississippi, so that is another distraction. “We’re certainly going to be the least-experienced teams in the SEC, maybe all of college basketball,” said Tyndall. “We signed eight guys from all different angles. We will be very youthful and inexperienced.” VCU is built to win right away as they return 69.3% of their minutes played from last year’s 26-9 team. The Rams are just one of three teams to win 26 games or more over the last five seasons; Duke and Syracuse are the others. VCU plays at a furious pace, and their up and down style wears teams out, especially early in the season. The Rams have exceptional conditioning, and against an inexperienced team like Tennessee, VCU’s ability to wreak havoc and create turnovers makes this game a complete mismatch. The Rams are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect VCU to win this game easily by double digits. 10* Play VCU (-). |
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04-07-14 | Kentucky v. Connecticut +3 | 54-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Connecticut has been ultra-impressive in the tournament, and we expect them to cap off their run with a National Championship tonight. The Huskies beat five good teams along the way, including the #1 team in the country, Florida, on Saturday night. Connecticut plays solid defense, and they actually have a much better defense than Kentucky. The Huskies only give up 0.92 points per possession while the Wildcats give up 0.96 points per possession. Overall, Connecticut allows just 63.5 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 33.0% shooting from three-point land. The Huskies can also get to the free throw line as 23% of their points come from the line. Kentucky tends to foul too much, and 22% of the points they allow come from the stripe. Connecticut also owns a big edge over Kentucky from the line as the Huskies hit 77.4% of their attempts while Kentucky only hits 68.5% of their attempts. That’s a major edge in a game that is projected to be close.
Kentucky is certainly playing as good as Connecticut right now, but the Wildcats are taking on a team that is rated higher in my power ratings. Connecticut is 0.2 points better based on my raw power ratings, and that means this game should be a Pick’em. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Kentucky only goes to a 1-point favorite. The posted line is too high based on my power ratings, and that means the value is on the Huskies in this game. Kentucky has played the toughest tournament opponents to get to this game, but after beating the likes of Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the young Wildcats may take an off the radar team like Connecticut a bit lightly. Kentucky has also been winning by slim margins as all of their tournament games were decided by 7 points or less with three of those games decided by 3 points or less. Connecticut has line value and the better defense, so we’ll take the points with the Huskies in the National Championship game on Monday night. 10* Play CONNECTICUT (+). |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin | 74-73 | Push | 0 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Kentucky is playing at a much higher level now than they were in early March. Going into the SEC tournament, head coach John Calipari made some adjustments, and those changes have paid off big. The Wildcats are 6-1 in seven games since the start of the SEC tournament with their lone loss coming by just a single point (61-60) versus the #1 team in the country, Florida. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament: “You’ll see a different team when you watch Friday.” The players were also on the same page: “I think we’re just going to be playing a lot better,” said James Young. Willie Cauley-Stein added: “That swagger was coming back to our team.” Kentucky’s defense has been outstanding since Calipari made the changes; they’ve allowed just 64.6 points per game on 45.0% (163-362) shooting from the field. Kentucky has played the toughest opponents in the tournament according to my power ratings, and they are actually taking a step-down in class in this game.
Wisconsin’s path to the Final 4 has been easy as the Badgers faced a slew of low-rated teams. Aside from their overtime win over Arizona, the Badgers have played junk in this tournament. Tonight’s game against Kentucky is going to be extremely difficult for Wisconsin because they simply do not have the quickness to match-up with the Wildcats. In their game against Michigan, it was obvious that Kentucky’s speed off the dribble was overwhelming the Wolverines. The Badgers are much slower than Michigan, so it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to keep Kentucky from driving to the basket. Wisconsin has a woeful interior defense with 60% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range. Kentucky scores 54% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint. Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (32% of their points), but Kentucky’s perimeter defense is strong (26% of points allowed), holding opponents to just 32.0% shooting from three-point land. Kentucky is a poor match-up for Wisconsin, and we expect the Wildcats to win this game on Saturday night. 10* Play KENTUCKY. |
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04-05-14 | Connecticut +6.5 v. Florida | 63-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Connecticut has been impressive in the tournament, and we expect them to be a tough out for Florida in this game. The Huskies beat Florida 65-64 back in early December, and that win shows that they can play with the Gators. Connecticut plays solid defense, and they actually have a comparable defense to Florida. The Huskies only give up 0.92 points per possession while the Gators give up 0.90 points per possession. Overall, Connecticut allows just 63.7 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land. The Huskies can also get to the free throw line as 23% of their points come from the line. Florida tends to foul too much, and 21% of the points they allow come from the stripe. That’s a major edge for Connecticut in what projects to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Florida is the #1 team in the country as they come into this game with a 36-2 record. There are no real knocks on the Gators, but they have yet to be challenged in this tournament and their recent games have not set them up for tonight’s game. The Gators are taking a big step-up in class versus Connecticut, and the pointspread is a tad on the high side. My raw power ratings make Florida a 5-point favorite, and just a 6-point favorite when adjusting for strength of schedule. That’s important because Florida did not win by big margins away from home in conference play this season, and in fact, nine of the Gators’ eleven wins came by single digits. The SEC and AAC are comparable conferences based on ratings; they are separated by just 0.56 points. These two teams are much closer than the seeds reflect, and there’s even some value on the Huskies according to my power ratings. We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Connecticut on Saturday night. 9* Play CONNECTICUT (+). |
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04-03-14 | Minnesota v. SMU -3 | 65-63 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Minnesota survived in overtime on Tuesday night; the Gophers beat Florida State 67-64. Minnesota won that game despite shooting just 38.9% (21-54) from the field and 64.0% (16-25) from the free throw line. The Gophers were 18-3 at home this season, but they are just 5-11 in games played away from home. Minnesota’s poor road record is attributed to their poor defense that allows 1.02 points per possession; the worst and only team of the NIT Final Four to allow over 1.00 points per possession. The Gophers won without their starting center, Elliott Eliason, on Tuesday. He is questionable to play tonight, and if he’s out, it’s unlikely Minnesota can win another game minus his presence inside the paint.
SMU should have been in the NCAA tournament. The Mustangs got screwed, and because of it, they are playing with a purpose. SMU came out sluggish in the first half against Clemson on Tuesday, but we saw their true abilities when they won the second half 39-21. SMU faced some tough opponents this season, and they more than held their own. They won 76-73 at Virginia, beat Connecticut 74-65, and only lost by 8 points at Louisville. The Mustangs own the much better defense over Minnesota, and they also have the more experienced coach with Larry Brown over Richard Pitino. SMU’s defense only allows 0.92 points per possession; the best of the four teams in the NIT. SMU is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Thursday night. 10* Play SMU (-). |
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04-01-14 | Minnesota v. Florida State -1 | 64-67 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Minnesota and Florida State played backed in early December, and the Gophers won 71-61 despite shooting an awful 34.0% (18-53) from the field. The difference in that game was Minnesota’s +15-point edge from three-point land and their 28-19 edge from the free throw line. That game was on Minnesota’s home court where things tend to go their way. The Gophers were 18-3 at home this season, but they were just 5-10 in games played away from home. Minnesota’s poor road record is attributed to their poor defense that allows 1.02 points per possession; the worst and only team of the remaining four to allow over 1.00 points per possession. The Gophers will also play tonight’s game without their starting center, Elliott Eliason, who hurt his ankle in practice. That leaves a bad defense without their rim protector, and that’s not good in this matchup.
Florida State is a different team than they were when they played Minnesota early in the season. The Seminoles now have an identity and a style of play that will cause the Gophers fits. Florida State isn’t reliant on perimeter scoring, and instead they’ve become an interior team that scores 53% of their points from 2-point range. With Minnesota missing their center, Florida State will hold a big edge inside the paint. The Seminoles hold a huge defensive edge in this game as they allow just 66.4 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 32.5% shooting from three-point land. Florida State also played a tougher schedule, and their results were impressive. They lost 82-80 in overtime to Michigan and only lost 67-66 at Florida. Florida State is the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Tuesday night. 10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-). |
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04-01-14 | Clemson v. SMU -3 | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Clemson had an easy road to the NIT Final Four; the Tigers played Georgia State, Illinois, and Belmont. They were unimpressive in those three wins, especially the last two games in which they only won by a total of six points. Clemson didn’t play a tough schedule at all this season, and in fact, the Tigers played just one team that made a deep run in the NCAA tournament. They lost 63-58 at home to Virginia, but that result isn’t as good as it looks. Clemson plays at an extremely slow pace, and so does Virginia. That game figured to be a close, low-scoring defensive scrum. The Tigers’ offense is simply not good; they average just 63.7 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 30.7% shooting from three-point land. Clemson’s offense was even worse away from home as they averaged just 57.7 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 29.7% shooting from three-point land.
SMU should have been in the NCAA tournament. The Mustangs got screwed, and because of it, they are playing with a purpose. SMU had tougher opponents to get this far with LSU and California. SMU also played good teams tough in the regular season as they won 76-73 at Virginia, beat Connecticut 74-65, and only lost by 8 points at Louisville. The Mustangs own the better offense and the better defense over Clemson, and they also have the much better coach with Larry Brown over Brad Brownell. SMU averages 71.4 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from the field. The Mustangs’ defense only allows 0.92 points per possession; the best of the four teams remaining in the NIT. SMU is simply the better team on both ends of the court, so we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play SMU (-). |
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03-30-14 | Kentucky -2 v. Michigan | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Kentucky beat us in their win over Louisville, and we have to give them credit for coming back from a deficit over the final three minutes of the game. The Wildcats have continued their success that began in the SEC tournament after head coach John Calipari made some adjustments. Those changes have paid off big with the Wildcats winning five of six games with their lone loss coming by just a single point (61-60) versus the #1 team in the country, Florida. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament: “You’ll see a different team when you watch Friday.” The players were also on the same page: “I think we’re just going to be playing a lot better,” said James Young. Willie Cauley-Stein added: “That swagger was coming back to our team.” Kentucky’s defense has been outstanding since Calipari made the changes; they’ve allowed just 63.3 points per game on 44.6% (136-305) shooting from the field. Kentucky has played the toughest opponents in the tournament according to my power ratings, and they are actually taking a major step-down in class in this game.
Michigan’s path to the Elite 8 was easy as the Wolverines faced a slew of low-rated teams. My power ratings had Michigan’s opponents rated the lowest when averaged out, and they are facing a Kentucky team rated much higher than any team they’ve played in quite some time. Despite the favorable opponents, Michigan has not been too impressive. They hung on to beat Tennessee by just 2 points (73-71), and they struggled with Texas more than their 14-point win would suggest. Michigan has a woeful interior defense with 60% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range. Kentucky scores 54% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint. Michigan’s offensive strength is shooting the three (36% of their points), but Kentucky’s perimeter defense is strong (26% of points allowed), holding opponents to just 31.8% shooting from three-point land. Kentucky is a poor match-up for Michigan, and we expect the Wildcats to win game much easier than expected. 10* Play KENTUCKY (-). |
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03-30-14 | Connecticut +6 v. Michigan State | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Connecticut has been impressive in the tournament, and we expect them to be a tough out for Michigan State this afternoon. The Huskies survived overtime against St. Joseph’s in their first game, and then they beat a very good Villanova team quite easily. Connecticut then stifled a high-scoring Iowa State team in their last game, holding the Cyclones to just 26 points in the first half. Connecticut plays solid defense, and they actually have a better defense than Michigan State. The Huskies only give up 0.92 points per possession while the Spartans give up 0.96 points per possession. Overall, Connecticut allows just 64 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land. Connecticut did beat Florida back in December; only one other team beat the Gators this season.
Michigan State has played better basketball over the last couple of weeks, and the Spartans have become a public and media favorite. There’s no doubt that Michigan State has a talented team now that they are fully healthy, but the Spartans are overvalued in this game. My power ratings make Michigan State just a 3.5-point favorite, and that’s after adjusting for strength of schedule. On raw power ratings alone, Connecticut and Michigan State would be a Pick'em. The Spartans are also off a grinder against Virginia, and there is reason to expect a bit of a letdown in this game. Virginia was the #1 seed, and the Spartans may get caught looking ahead to the Final Four after beating the Cavaliers and now facing a #7 seed in Connecticut. We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Connecticut on Sunday afternoon. 9* Play CONNECTICUT (+). |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -3 | 64-63 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Wisconsin has been very good to us in their last two games. We had Best Bets on the Badgers in their wins against Oregon and Baylor, but tonight, we
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03-29-14 | Dayton v. Florida -10 | 52-62 | Push | 0 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Dayton has caught lightning in a bottle during their tournament run, but we expect their journey to end tonight. Dayton was a questionable at-large selection, and according to my power ratings, the Flyers should not have been selected for the tournament. Dayton was lucky to survive the first weekend after beating Ohio State by a single point (60-59) and beating Syracuse by 2 points (55-53). The Flyers then played another surprise team in the Sweet 16, and they beat Stanford 82-72. Dayton
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03-28-14 | Michigan State v. Virginia +2.5 | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Michigan State has played better basketball over the last couple of weeks, and the Spartans have become a public and media favorite. There
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03-28-14 | Kentucky v. Louisville -4 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Kentucky is certainly playing better basketball now, but the Wildcats are taking on a Louisville team that is #1 in my power ratings. Kentucky beat a mediocre Kansas State team 56-49 in their first tournament game, and they followed that with a solid 78-76 win over Wichita State. We had a Best Bet on Kentucky in that upset win as they simply matched up extremely well versus the Shockers. The Wildcats
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03-27-14 | UCLA +5 v. Florida | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
UCLA won their first two games of the tournament quite easily. The Bruins beat Tulsa 76-59 in their opening game, and then they took care of Stephen F. Austin 77-60. UCLA is certainly taking a big step-up in class tonight against Florida, but the Bruins play a style of basketball that gave the Gators fits this season. UCLA has an efficient offense that plays at an extremely fast pace, and we expect them to dictate the tempo in this game. UCLA averages 81.5 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land. UCLA
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03-27-14 | Baylor v. Wisconsin -3.5 | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Baylor was certainly impressive in their first two tournament games. The Bears had to face a well-coached, extremely slow-paced Nebraska team first. Baylor cruised in that game and they ultimately won 74-60 with the deciding factor being a 48-16 attempts edge from the free throw line which resulted in a +28 point differential. Baylor then faced Creighton, and they simply crushed the Bluejays from the opening tip, winning by 30 points (85-55). Baylor shot an incredible 63.8% (30-47) from the field and a whopping 61.1% (11-18) from three-point land. As good as Baylor has looked, they are taking a major step-up in class against Wisconsin, and they have little shot at repeating their last offensive performance. Baylor is the worst team left in the field according to my power ratings, and their tournament run ends right here.
Wisconsin crushed American by 40 points (75-35) in their first game, and the Badgers made a big comeback to beat Oregon 85-77. The Badgers chose to run with Oregon for some reason, and that decision was strange for a good coach like Bo Ryan. Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace, and we expect them to get back to their defensive ways in this game. Wisconsin |
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03-24-14 | Princeton +3 v. Fresno State | 56-72 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Princeton has quietly had a terrific season; the Tigers come into tonight
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03-23-14 | Memphis v. Virginia -6 | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
Memphis outlasted George Washington on Friday night to win 71-66; two made free throws with 0.7 seconds left gave the Tigers the pointspread cover. Memphis takes a big step-up in class against Virginia, and the Tigers will also be facing a style of play that gives them fits. Memphis has a talented team, but their best efforts came against teams who like to play at a fast pace. Memphis is at their best when they can get up and down the court, but they won
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03-23-14 | Stephen Austin +9 v. UCLA | 60-77 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Stephen F. Austin was fortunate to win their game on Friday night against VCU. The Lumberjacks were down 4 points, but sent the game to overtime after they hit a three while getting fouled. That only came after VCU missed a pair of free throws. The Lumberjacks won 77-75 in overtime, and that was their 29th consecutive win. Stephen F. Austin is a veteran team that plays hard on each and every possession, and they play suffocation half-court defense. The Lumberjacks turn their opponents over at a high rate; they rank second in the country in turnover percentage. Stephen F. Austin plays slow, half-court basketball; they
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03-23-14 | Kentucky +5 v. Wichita State | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Kentucky was not playing well prior to the SEC tournament, and head coach John Calipari made some adjustments before their game against LSU. Those changes have paid off big with the Wildcats winning three of four games with their lone loss coming by just a single point (61-60) versus the #1 team in the country, Florida. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament:
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03-22-14 | Connecticut v. Villanova -3.5 | 77-65 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Connecticut survived overtime against St. Joseph
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03-22-14 | Oregon v. Wisconsin -5 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show | |
Oregon was a team we played on quite often down the stretch. The Ducks held a lot of value towards the end of the regular season after slumping thru a 2-8 stretch from January to February. The Ducks snapped out of their funk, and they
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03-22-14 | Pittsburgh +5.5 v. Florida | 45-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh opened the season at 18-2, but the Panthers hit a rough patch beginning in mid-January. The Panthers went just 2-5 over a 7-game stretch, and they were the forgotten team after losing to teams like Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, and North Carolina. The Panthers have regained their early season form as they
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03-21-14 | Cal Poly SLO v. Wichita State -16 | 37-64 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
Cal Poly SLO is quite fortunate to be playing in the NCAA tournament. The Mustangs were just 10-19 heading into their conference tournament, and they were just 2-9 SU in their previous eleven games. Cal Poly won all three tournament games to earn the automatic NCAA bid, and they capped things off with an 81-69 win over Texas Southern on Wednesday night. The 81 points scored is their season-high; they shot 56.9% (29-51) from the field and 40.0% (6-15) from three-point land. That game was an anomaly and we expect the Mustangs to get a dose of reality in this game versus Wichita State. The Mustangs were just one of three teams to make the tournament with a negative offense/defense ratio in points per possession, and teams with that profile often get blown out. Cal Poly is my lowest rated team in the field of 68, and we expect them to play to that rating in this game, especially coming off their last game.
Wichita State went a perfect 34-0 this season, yet the Shockers are getting no respect. Many pundits have said they did not deserve a #1 seed, and to us, that is just ridiculous. Wichita State played in the Final Four last year, and they returned the majority of those players. This is a big statement game for the Shockers, and we expect them to win this game by as many points as they can in order to silence their critics. Wichita State plays efficient offense and stout defense, and they simply dominated weak teams like Cal Poly this season. The Shockers average 74.9 points per game while giving up only 59.9 points per game. To compare, Cal Poly averages 62.6 points per game while allowing 64.9 points per game. This game is a complete mismatch, and we expect Wichita State to make a loud statement with a blowout win on Friday night. 10* Play WICHITA STATE (-). |
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03-21-14 | George Washington +3 v. Memphis | 66-71 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
George Washington and Memphis are equal teams across the board, and according to my power ratings, this game should be a pick. The only reason Memphis is laying points in this game is because of their name and reputation. George Washington had a terrific season as they come in with a 24-8 record. The Colonials beat Creighton on a neutral court, and that win certainly shows this team can play. George Washington also played a slightly tougher schedule than Memphis overall, so the fact they have similar statistical numbers is meaningful. The Colonials play at a slower pace than Memphis, and they play solid defense. George Washington allows just 66.9 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land. They come in off a poor defensive effort against VCU, but with five days to prepare, we expect a bounce back effort in this game.
Memphis was hit or miss this season. The Tigers have a talented team, but their best efforts came against the better teams who like to play at a fast pace. Memphis is at their best when they can get up and down the court, but they won |
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03-21-14 | Oklahoma State v. Gonzaga +3 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State was a team that we used often down the stretch. The Cowboys held a lot of value after slumping thru a 7-game losing streak and losing their best player, Marcus Smart, for three games due to a suspension. But we
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03-21-14 | Tennessee -4 v. Massachusetts | 86-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
Tennessee
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03-20-14 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Villanova -16.5 | Top | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has no business being in the NCAA tournament despite their 21-13 record. The Panthers stole the Horizon League bid when they won four conference tournament games, including the final on Wright State
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03-20-14 | Arizona State +2 v. Texas | 85-87 | Push | 0 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
Arizona State and Texas are equal teams across the board, and according to my power ratings, this game should be a pick. The Sun Devils are getting a couple of points, and that gives us enough value to take the underdog in this game. Arizona State went 21-11 on the season, but they finished in poor form by losing five of their last seven games. The Sun Devils are well-coached by Herb Sendek, and his style plays well in tournament basketball, especially when he
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03-20-14 | NC State v. St. Louis -2.5 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
NC State had no business getting into the tournament, let alone win a game. But the Wolfpack beat Xavier by 15 points (74-59) on Tuesday night, and they
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03-20-14 | American +14 v. Wisconsin | 35-75 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
American is an unknown team from the Patriot League, and they are facing one of the better teams from the Big 10. However, the Eagles can play basketball and we expect them to hang tough in this game against Wisconsin. Head coach Mike Brennan is a former Georgetown assistant and he plays that same slow, half-court style of basketball that is successful in tournaments. Brennan was also an assistant at American when they took a #2 and a #3 seed to the wire in back-to-back tournaments. American has a solid defense that only allows 58.6 points per game on 41.1% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land.
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03-18-14 | Utah -1 v. St Mary's CA | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Utah was a much improved team this season, and tonight
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03-16-14 | Kentucky +6.5 v. Florida | 60-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Kentucky was not playing well coming into the SEC tournament, and head coach John Calipari made some adjustments prior to their last two games. Those changes have paid off big with the Wildcats winning their last two games by 18 and 12 points. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament:
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03-15-14 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin | Top | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Michigan State came into the Big 10 tournament with a purpose, and we saw that yesterday in their 67-51 dismantling of Northwestern. Usually, Tom Izzo and the Spartans care less about this tournament. But with the up and down season Michigan State had because of injuries and suspensions, they are taking this tournament much more serious. Izzo actually said:
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03-15-14 | Tennessee +7.5 v. Florida | 49-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Tennessee
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03-14-14 | Baylor -1 v. Texas | 86-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Texas crushed West Virginia by 17 points (66-49) last night. The Longhorns shot the ball well as they hit 48.9% (22-45) from the field and 41.2% (7-17) from three-point land. West Virginia
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03-14-14 | LSU v. Kentucky -4.5 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
LSU played last night and they beat Alabama 68-56. The Tigers shot the ball extremely well as they hit 50.0% (27-54) from the field and 50.0% (11-22) from three-point land. LSU was fortunate that they shot the ball so well because they fouled way too much, and they game Alabama a 26-9 free throw attempts edge which resulted in a -11-point (14-3) deficit from the line. LSU must now play on a back-to-back set while stepping up in competition. We do not expect LSU to repeat their shooting performance from yesterday, especially from beyond the arc. The Tigers are only 10-10 SU over their last twenty games, and they
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03-14-14 | Richmond v. VCU -8.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
These two teams just played a week ago with Virginia Commonwealth winning 56-50 at Richmond. We had a Best Bet on VCU in that game, and we
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03-13-14 | Memphis -2.5 v. Connecticut | 53-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Memphis and Connecticut are both in the NCAA tournament, so this game is not that important in the big picture. However, tonight
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03-13-14 | Baylor +2 v. Oklahoma | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Baylor needs to win as many games as possible in order to secure their spot in the NCAA tournament. The Bears beat a weak TCU team last night, but their competition gets much stiffer tonight. Baylor will play Oklahoma for the third time this season, and while the Bears lost both of those games, we expect a different outcome tonight. Baylor was in poor form when they faced Oklahoma; the Bears were in the midst of a 2-8 stretch when they played those games. Despite being in poor form, the Bears only lost by 2 points at home and they trailed by just 8 points deep in the second half on the road. Baylor is in much better form now as they
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03-12-14 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -8.5 | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Texas Tech is just 14-17 on the season, and their only hope to get to the Big Dance is to win the Big 12 tournament. They have no shot in doing that, especially since we expect them to lose their opening game big. The Red Raiders have been much better at home (11-6) than on the road (3-11) this season. Texas Tech is giving up 71.2 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land away from home. Texas Tech was crushed by 22 points at Oklahoma State last month, and we don
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03-09-14 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -2.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Michigan State notched a big 86-76 home win over Iowa on Thursday night. But that win doesn
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03-08-14 | North Carolina v. Duke -7 | 81-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
North Carolina is on a major roll right now as the Tar Heels have ripped off 12 consecutive wins. One of those wins came at home over Duke when the Tar Heels overcame a 37-30 halftime deficit to win 74-66 as 2-point home underdogs. North Carolina got a favorable home whistle in that game as they held a 31-12 free throw attempts edge which resulted in a 13-point (20-7) edge from the line. That is not going to happen tonight, especially with this game on Duke
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03-08-14 | Richmond v. Dayton -9.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Richmond was a play-against for us in their last game, and we
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03-08-14 | Arizona v. Oregon +3 | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Arizona comes into today
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03-08-14 | St John's v. Marquette -3 | 91-90 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
This will be the second meeting of the season between St. John
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03-06-14 | VCU -6.5 v. Richmond | 56-50 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Virginia Commonwealth bounced back strongly in their last two games after going 1-3 in their previous four games. The Rams throttled Fordham by 19 points and they beat a good St. Louis team handily by 11 points on Saturday. VCU is hitting their late-season stride right now, and they get a favorable match-up tonight in Richmond. The Rams already beat the Spiders 81-70 earlier this season while out-rebounding Richmond 37-26, including 11-6 on the offensive glass. VCU holds a big edge inside the paint, and their superior depth and strength at the guard spot will really be evident in this game. VCU
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03-05-14 | Wyoming v. Utah State -8.5 | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Wyoming was quietly having a good season, but unfortunately, they lost their best player to injury three games ago. Larry Nance Jr. is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and since his departure, the Cowboys are 0-3 SU and ATS. Wyoming is also without Charles Hankerson Jr. due to suspension, and his absence makes the Cowboys extremely thin. Wyoming has to rely on their current five starters to play at least 40 minutes or more, and the increased playing time has the team worn out. In their last two games, Wyoming has been out-scored 91-61 in the second half.
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03-04-14 | Arizona State v. Oregon -7 | 78-85 | Push | 0 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Arizona State snapped their 2-game road losing streak with back-to-back big wins at home. The Sun Devils beat Stanford by 12 points (76-64) last Wednesday night and they followed that with an 18-point win (78-60) over California on Saturday. Arizona State
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03-04-14 | Michigan v. Illinois +3.5 | 84-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Michigan has played better basketball than expected after losing their best player, Mitch McGary, a couple of months ago. The Wolverines have gone 15-3 without McGary which is pretty impressive. However, Michigan has had trouble against a certain style of play, and they will face that tonight in Illinois. The Wolverines need to play at a fast pace to be at their best, and they are quite vulnerable when forced into a slow, half-court game. Michigan is just 3-5 SU (2-4 on the road) when held to less than 70 points this season with two of those wins coming by just 3 points apiece. The Wolverines have not been at their best on the road recently either as they are just 2-2 SU in their last four games with one of those wins coming in overtime by a single point.
Illinois was good early this season; they began the year at 13-2. The Illini proceeded to go an ugly 1-10 over their next eleven games. However, Illinois has reverted back to their early season form as they |
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03-01-14 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +1.5 | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
Kansas has dominated teams at home (13-1) this season, but they
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03-01-14 | Oakland v. Youngstown State -4 | 87-81 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Oakland has had a terrible season (11-19), and they come into this game off a very disappointing home loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay. That was Oakland
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03-01-14 | Cleveland State v. Valparaiso -1.5 | 63-52 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
Cleveland State comes into this game off a big home win over Youngstown State on Tuesday night. The Vikings won that game 70-69 in overtime with many of their players battling the flu. That was also Cleveland State
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02-27-14 | Oregon +7.5 v. UCLA | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Oregon began the season at 13-0, but things quickly turned and the Ducks went on a 5-game losing streak. The Ducks lost five of six games at that time, including a 70-68 home loss to UCLA as 2.5-point favorites. Since that loss, Oregon is 4-2 with the two losses coming by just 2 points apiece. If we include the UCLA loss, the Ducks are on a 7-game spread-covering streak based on tonight
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02-27-14 | Gonzaga -5.5 v. Pacific | Top | 70-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Gonzaga comes into tonight
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02-26-14 | Stanford v. Arizona State -1.5 | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Stanford has won three consecutive games, and five of their last six games overall. Their last win came at home on Saturday over ranked UCLA, and the Cardinal played a perfect game. Stanford shot an incredible 62.2% (28-45) from the field and 55.0% (11-20) from three-point land. They were also aggressive in getting to the free throw line 24 times. That was a huge win for Stanford, and considering how well they played, we expect a major letdown tonight at Arizona State. The Cardinal beat the Sun Devils 76-70 on February 1st, but they trailed at the half before getting a 13-point lead midway thru the second half. Arizona State battled back and only trailed by 3 points with a minute left, and that
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02-26-14 | North Carolina v. NC State +4.5 | 85-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
North Carolina is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game at NC State on Wednesday night. The Tar Heels beat Duke 74-66 last Thursday night after coming back from a 7-point halftime deficit. North Carolina followed that emotional win with a 105-72 dismantling of Wake Forest on Saturday afternoon. The Tar Heels shot 57.4% (35-61) from the field and an incredible 73.3% (11-15) from three-point land. They also went 24-29 (82.8%) from the free throw line. They couldn
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