Cowboys +3.5 2.2% play

Patriots +7 2.2% play

Titans -2.5 -117 5.5% NFL POD

Jaguars +1.5 2.2% play 

Hawaii +21 2.2% play 

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Sports Pick Notes

Kansas State -3  2.2% play

Colorado got a bye at the wrong time in my opinion.  They were flying high two upset victories including one on the road as more than a 2 TD dog as they dominated UCF, which does not look as good now considering UCF lost to Florida big a week ago.  Kansas State getting no respect here based on their loss at BYU where they got blown out.  I think Kansas State in a buy low spot here where the line has clearly moved a lot since open.

UCLA +4 3.3% PLAY

The Bruins have had a rough schedule, and compared with MInnesota they have faced a far tougher schedule with an average opponent ypp defense ranking 35th compared to 79 for MInnesota.  It's a good reason why UCLA's offense has struggled despite the offensive minds on their coaching staff.  They will have to go up agaisnt another top notch defense, but a defense that is traveling on the road after a major upset of USC.  It's not a good spot for Minnesota, and UCLA has been very good ranking 27th in ypc run defense.  UCLA's defense has typically faced top offenses as well average opponent ranking 35th, so the teams they are facing are top 50 in offense and defense, and Minnesota's offense actually ranks 87th, so this is a step down for their defense, which I think will keep them in this game. 

West Virginia +3.5 2.2% play

LSU +3.5 3.3% PLAY 

Ohio State -3 3.3% play

A lot of familiarity here for some of the Ohio State coaches with the Oregon team that I feel will benefit them.  Ohio State has not faced the toughest schedule, but I think we will see some things here that we haven't seen on tape from them.  I think Will Smith will take off on more QB designed runs.  On the Oregon side they look like a very good balanced team, but they rank 96th in forcing turnovers, and are outside the top 75 in explosive offense and defense.  I think Ohio State will have the advantage there, and in the red zone.  Oregon has not faced a defense this good, and while Dillon Gabriel is a very good player and is experienced he has limitations for sure.  I think Ohio State just has the better overall team and talent, including the better QB. 

Washington STate -3.5 2.2% play 

I think we have value here on a team that has already beaten two teams that profile better than Fresno State when Washington State beat Washington and Texas Tech.  The throttling by Boise State before their bye is giving us line value here.  Fresno State really has not impressed me and I'm not a big Mikey Keene fan.  They rank 114th in % of possessions ending in a TO and Washington State is top 50 on the defensive side of that stat.  I also think Fresno will have issues with Washington State's QB Mateer who can run it well, and Fresno State gave up over 100 yards on just 12 carries to UNLV's QB, and against Michigan Orgi only ran it 5 times for 32 yards.  Fresno State's defense will have a rough time against a top 50 success rate offense, one that can run and pass and be explosive.

USC +4 2.2% PLAY

Penn State certainly has the better numbers and there is reason to believe they can just do what Michigan and MInnesota did against USC, but I think USC playing as a dog is a different situation here, and Penn State to me until proven otherwise are the same team as seasons past.  They are bullies and pad stats against weaker competition, but when they step it up they typically fail.  Now USC's numbers don't look even close to recent years, but they are still moving the ball on offense under Lincoln Riley rankign 15th in success rate.  Whenever Penn State has to play a top offense they typically struggle losing to Michigan /Ohio State every year.  They lost to Ole Miss in their bowl game last year.  This is a rough trip across the country, and USC is the healthier team, and even if Penn State gets a lead the back door could be wide open, but I think USC will be live to pull the upset. 

California +3.5 2.2% play

Tough spot here for California after they blew a 35-10 lead against MIami to have to fly back across the country, but I think Pitt is just overrated.  Their is a huge discrepency in strength of schedule when you look at the fact that Cal has faced an average opponent ypp of +0.53, comapred to Pitt at -1.25.  Pitt's offense has looked great, but some of their stats are really inflated bc of their schedule and the 70 points they put up on Youngstown State.  Cal is a top 50 defense and their 27th ranked sack % could give Pitt's offensive line issues. I think this game is a FG game and would not be shocked if Cal pulls off an upset as Pitt has been lucky to be 5-0. 

Wisconsin +2 1.1% Free Play 

Rutgers defense gave up 500+ yards in their last home game to Washington and they were lucky to win the game thanks to the special teams issues the Huskies had in that game.  Now they host Wisconsin whose only losses are to Alabama and USC on the road.  USC road loss is very deceiving and doesn't look great considering USC's recent losses, but I think Wisconsin found something last week against a bad Purdue team as they won 52-6.  A lot of times those performances will carry over to the next week, and Rutgers defense ranks 114th in ypc, 124th in rushing success rate defense, they are 79th at getting to the QB.  I think Wisconsin can do what Wisconsin wants to do here and run the ball. 

49ERS -3 -120 3% PLAY 

Cardinals +7.5 -115 2.5% play 

Browns +3 2.2% play 

Texans -1 2.2% play

Jets +8.5 w/ Bengals +8.5 3.3% teaser

California +10.5 3.3% play 

Miami was very lucky to hold off against Virginia Tech last week and now they have to go across the country leaving Florida for the first time all year to face Cal who is very familiar with their coaching staff.  Cristobal went 2-1, but 1-2 ATS vs. Wilcox who is 30-16 ATS as a dog.  Cal's defense is playing excellent so far this season and Miami really has not been tested on defense as they have played an average opponent defense ranking 108th, while Cal comes in ranking 14th on defense, and 27th in explosive plays allowed, #1 in forcing turnovers.  Cal also has an edge on special teams, and Wilcox faced Cam Ward in 2022 forcing 2 interceptions in their game against Washington State.  Not only is the travel spot tough for Miami with a 1030pm kick, but its hard for them to not look ahead to the following week's match up against ranked Louisville.

Florida +1.5 2.2% play 

Washington -1 3.3% play

This is a rematch of last year’s National Championship, and oh how far both teams have fallen.  The fall for Michigan has been much more with the coaching staff and players, and play on the field.  Michigan’s biggest difference is their offense, which is completely one dimensional relying on the running game, and Washington seems to have improved on defense ranking 13th in success rate allowed, while they ranked 97th last year.  The overall number thus far for Washington are actually better and more balanced compared to last year and they are at home, with revenge at night in a stadium that actually has a home field advantage.  I just don’t trust this Michigan offense on the road against a solid defense.  Washington should have beaten Rutgers last week, but they missed field goals, and that was a tough trip across the country with this game on deck.  Washington has the better coach, better QB, and better #s with home fans behind them.  Many may wonder why a top 10 team is an underdog on the road, but we don’t!

Minnesota +8.5 2.2% play

USC is in a tough spot here after back to back games against physical teams in Michigan and Wisconsin.  Thier blowout over Wisconsin is misleading, while Minnesota should have came back to beat Michigan. There is no die in this Minnesota team that is getting healthier by the week.  I think Minnesota can really give USC a scare, and their success rate averages and opponent averages are better than USC.  This is a home game for Minnesota and it's going to be a bit windy here with sustain winds over 10mph and gusts in the 20's, which is not going to help the USC offense.  Lincoln Riley 8-18 ATS As a road favorite.  I think this game is a battle much like the Michigan game.  Minnesota really wants to establish the run, and USC 101st in ypc defense. 

Ole Miss -8.5  2.2% play 

South Carolina seems to be the public dog this week on the account that they beat Kentucky on the road while Ole Miss lot to them at home, but I think we are getting maybe a TD of value because of that, and I think we see a focused Ole Miss team looking to bounce back here.  Ole Miss offense put up 50+ on South Carolina last time they played, and I think the Ole miss defensive front is going to give South Carolina’s offensive line, which has been awful a lot of issues in this game.  South Carolina ranking 134th in sack %, while Ole Miss ranks 21st. I think we may see a close game early, but with Ole Miss pulling away late as they have a significant advantage when we look at success rate averages of 9.16 compared to South Carolina’s average of 76.67, but the line value is the biggest edge here as Ole Miss was a 15.5 point favorite against Kentucky, and would have been 10.5 on the road, while South Carolina was a 9.5 dog on the road to Kentucky which suggests that if this game happened a few weeks back Ole Miss would have been 16-18 point favorite, but instead we have a spread under 10 with a team that will want to make a statement given the fact that they have hopes of contending for the SEC crown and a college football playoff spot.

Louisville -6.5 2.2% play 

Air Force +10 3.3% play

This line has flipped more than 20 points in just 1 year.  Air Force was a 10.5 point favorite at Navy last year, which would suggest they’d be a 14+ point under dog if this game was at Navy this year.  That is crazy for just any match up, but a match up between service academies where roster turnover does not mean nearly as much as it does to most teams, and then you factor in familiarity of scheme, and the fact that these teams play each year.  Air Force has looked terrible this year, but that’s really the time you want to take a team, and for as bad as they have looked they have easily faced a tougher schedule facing an average opponent defense ranked 55th in ypp, compared to Navy’s opponent average of 94th.  Air Force run defense which is a key to this match up looks far superior ranking 23rd in succes state compared to Navy ranking 101st.  Overall I think we see a close game, and I just can not justify a 24 point move from last year to this year in this match up.

Missouri +3 2.2% play 

I don’t think we have seen the best of Missouri, and coming off a bye with the idea that they have been holding back the offense heading into their SEC Showdown with Texas AM.  Missouri was a very good road team last year and with the same offense back there is no reason they shouldn’t be in 2024.  Texas A&M to me seems to have gotten lucky in a few games this season and arguably could have lost to Bowling Green at home.  Arkansas had them on the ropes last week in Dallas, and Missouri will have the rested edge in this early showdown.

UTEP +10.5 2.2% PLAY 

Tampa +2.5 2.2% play 

Titans +3 -125 , if you can buy to 3 at -125 or better - 2.5% play 

Cincinnati +3.5 2.2% play 

Georgia -1 5.5% NCAAF POD

Revenge!  I rarely use this angle, which hasn’t worked in handicapping for over a decade, but this is on the rare occasion I think it is a factor.  Georgia should have been in the college football playoff last year, but their lone loss was to Alabama.  Georgia has had this game circled all summer long.  Georgia has been tested already this season against Kentucky on the road and Clemson.  The Clemson win really looks a lot better now, and the Kentucky clunker is something we have seen from Georgia in years past and I’m not concerned.  We saw it last year against Missouri, and they bounced back to dominate Top 10 Ole Miss 52-17. In 2022 they struggled against Missouri again and bounced back to win 42-10 against Auburn.  

Alabama has not been tested, and I saw a lot of red flags in their game against South Florida.  Alabama has faced an average ranked ypp defense ranking 115th, and their opponent ypp differential is -2 yards per play.  Compare that with Georgia who has faced an average opponent ypp differential of +0.85.  Alabama’s offense lives and dies on the explosive pass play, which I think is something a great defense can stop.  Georgia is #1 in explosive plays allowed and #2 in passing success rate defense. Alabama has had their number in the Nick Saban era, and I have all the respect for their new coach, but I think Georgia is on a mission this year, and it starts with a road win at Alabama tonight. 

Michigan State +24 3.3% play 

Baylor -3 2.2% play 

BYU is struggling to run the ball, and their QB has thrown three interceptions in 2 road games against suspect defenses.  Baylor’s defense should really keep them in this game and this is a critical must win game for them with two road games on deck.  They were extremely unfortunate to lose at Colorado last week after they fumbled going into the end zone late in the game, and gave up a hail mary to lose in the end.  On the flip side BYU despite what their final score showed were outgained by over 150 yards, and benefited from a lot of fluky plays at home, but heading out on the road for an early game in warmer weather where Baylor has an under rated home field advantage.  I would have loved to get this at under a field goal, but I think Baylor wins by a TD!

Virginia Tech +17.5 2.2% play

This is a classic buy low sell high situation on Friday night.  Miami comes firing into this game 4-0 with the Heisman Trophy favorite Cam Ward.  However, a deeper look and who have they really played? The road game at Florida does not look as impressive now with Florida really struggling and the win against South Florida was a bit misleading as South Florida lost their starting QB and the backup ARrchie had two turnovers.  Meanwhile Virginia Tech has already lost two games as a favorite.  Week 1 against Vanderbilt on the road looks better and better as Vanderbilt recently took top 10 Missouri to OT on the road, Rutgers is undefeated, and they beat an Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road. 

Miami's offense has looked great, but they have played an average opponent yard per play defense ranking 122nd.  Their average opponent yards per play differential is -3 yards per play.  Virginia Tech still has a top 50 pass defense, and a top 10 pass rush which could make this game different.  Virginia Tech likes to run the ball and shorten the game, 111th in second per play, and I just feel this amount of points is too much for a team that has all the confidence.  We have seen this story for Miami before before Cristobal and with him.

Jaguars +5 2.2% play 

Chiefs -3 2.2% play

Lions -3 2.2% play

Dolphins +4.5 5.5% MAX POD

Broncos +6 3.3% play 

Giants +7 -120 buy 1/2 1.2% 

Colts -1 2.2% play 

Bowling Green +22.5 1.1% free play 

Oklahoma +7 -120 2.5%

Utah +2 2.2% play 

I'm not at all concerned about the weather that many are making a big deal about for Utah.  Utah coming from eleveation, which helps with fitness.  Adding the 98 degree temperatures will be a challenge for everyone, but Utah playing in the PAC 12 was not immune to traveling to hot places to play with games in Arizona.  I just really trust the Utah head coach a lot.  This team was picked by many to win the Big 12, while Oklahoma State has been impressive, their game against Arkansas was very misleading.  Oklahoma State has had a head coaching advantage in all of these games, and the half time adjustments have proven that. This will be the first game they do not have a coaching advantage.  This should be a fun game with two 7 year QB's with the return of Cam Rising "supposedly," for which I'm still a bit suspicous, but he is listed as probably instead of questionable.  The only reason this is not a larger plays is because Whittingham seems to like to play these injury games. 

Navy +10 2.2% play 

Michigan +4.5 2.2% play

They were a double digit favorite in the summer, and I understand things have not looked good for Michigan of late, and USC off a bye.  USC is riding the hype from defeating LSU in the opener, a game we had USC in, but really LSU has not looked that great and nearly lost outright as a double digit favorite to South Carolina just a week ago.  I’m not sure I’m buying all the way in on the USC offense, which will have to be very good to cover this spread on the road against a very good defense that has to show up here.  I think with another game in the books and another game to learn from the defense is poised to have one of their better games.  Offensively is where the problem is for Michigan and they’ll go back to Orji at QB relying on the run game, which tells me that this game will be slowed down, and Michigan is going to try to control it.

Georgia Tech +10 2.2% play

Stanford +8.5 2.2% play 

Syracuse getting a lot of love, and now ranked in the top 25, for what?  A team that’s ranked 121st in PFF tackling 107th in PFF coverage, 113th in rushing success defense, and 105th rushing success rate.  This team is as one dimensional as you can be with a rookie head coach.  They have the QB in McCord who transferred in from Ohio State, and has looked great, but I just feel a little too much hype.  Syracuse is great in their building on Friday night’s as a dog, but as a favorite, and now ranked, well that’s a different story.  Much is being made of the travel spot for the Cardinal with a 2100 mile flight, but early in the season, and off a bye, I believe this is a non factor.

Jets -6 1.1% play 

Falcons +5.5 2.2% play 

Patriots +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 2.5% play 

Saints +6.5 2.2% play 

Giants +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

TCU -1 3.3% PLAY 

UCF was just 2-4 on the road last year and still learning to play in the Big 12.  I really like the additions that TCU has made on the coaching staff this year, and for this game there is a lot of familiarity.  DC Andy AValos came over from Boise State who faced UCF last year and held them to 18 points at home.  OC Kendal Briles was the OC at Arkansas last year and helped Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson the last few years develop into the QB he is today.  Jefferson will be the UCF QB here, and I think it's a huge edge to TCU who also has Sonny Dykes as the headman.  TCU run defense has been very good, and that will be the key against UCF.  Not sure why TCU went to +2 earlier, but when limits increased this completely moved to TCU being the favorite again. 

UCLA +3.5 3.3% PLAY

Indiana getting a lot of love right now, but why?  They beat FIU and they beat Western Carolina.  Curt Cignetti comes over from James Madison, but he's still a first year coach, while Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke has looked good this will be a different task going on the road for the first time, crossing time zones, and facing a UCLA team with an extra week of preparation.  The only data point on UCLA is their 16-13 win at Hawaii, but there are a lot of logistics of going to Hawaii and for a first time head coach in Foster that must have been a real challenge.  He also was without two starting tackles and some other players for the game that will be back for their Big 10 opener.  We have a relatively low total here, and I expect this to be a battle. 

Colorado State +7.5 3.3% play

This is a revenge game that went to double over time last year despite Colorado State turning the ball over 4xfr.  I don't understand why Colorado continues to be over rated.  Their offensive and defensive front issues are not going away this week, and there is only so much Shadeur Sanders can do.  Colorado State has to be playing this one with a chip on their shoulder, and l trust Jay Norvell to come up with a game plan that will give Colorado's defense a lot of issues. This Colorado STate team has multiple NFL prospects led by WR Tory Horton who had 16 catches for 133 yards in last year's meeting.  I'm starting to think all the attention on this Colorado team that is brought on by their head coach is getting to them, and the message of swag must be getting old.

Purdue +8 2.2% play

I don't think this is an over reaction to Notre Dame's loss last week against Northern Illinois.  Notre Dame goes back on the road to face a tough defense at Purdue under Ryan Walters.  Purdue has the extra week of freshness and preparation.  Purdue's offense is led by a veteran QB in Hudson Card, and I think this game will come down to the wire, because Purdue should hold up well enough against hte run.  Notre Dame's transfer QB Riley Leonard has also not looked like himself. I don't know if it's the young geling offensive line, but he seems to have lost all confidence.  His throws have been way off target, and I think Purdue should really be able to focus on the run to force them into 3rd and long.  T

Tulsa +18 2.2% play

Tulsa has nearly pulled the upset here in back to back years, while Oklahoma State is 2-0, they are a very miselading 2-0 getting outgained by over a yard per play in their first two games.  Oklahoma State will very much be okay just getting by and moving on to the rest of their schedule with Utah and Kansas State on deck. This game means much more to Tulsa here and they heave proven that in years past against better Oklahoma State teams. 

UNLV +9 2.2% PLAY

This is a revenge game for UNLV after losing in the bowl game last year 49-36.  Barry Odom has done a great job here recruiting and bringing in talent and they are one of the favorites in the Mountain West this year.  Kansas with Lance Leopold has been a different team, but I have questions about this team after losing to an Illinois team that was expected to be down this year.  This is far too many points in my opinion.  Jalon Daniels at QB does not seem to be the same guy here without OC Andy Kotelnicki who left Kansas to Penn STate.  I question whether its the offense or just the fact that Daniels has been hurt so many times in the past.  Either way I think this game will stay close, and I've been more impressed with UNLV's win at Houston to start the year after we just saw them nearly upset Oklahoma. 

Bills +3 -124 3% play 

Arizona State +3 2.2% play

I could fall on my sword here, but I think the line movement is not warranted.  I understand the short week, and the love for Texas State, but really waht has Texas State proven really?  What do we really know about these teams to warrant this kind of a line move?  It's one thing for a group of 5 team to be hosting as an under dog against a Power 4 school, but now as a favorite there is much more pressure.

I really like ARizona State's head coach Kenny Dillingham, and although they went 3-9 last year they had many issues with their offensive line, and QB's that limited them for most of the year.  We have already seen them win big against an inferior opponent and then back it up with a big win against an SEC opponent last week.  I love the way they have been able to take care of the ball, and if they can continue to do that they will win this game.  They know their under dogs, and Dillingham is very vocal about proving people wrong.  

Jets +5 1.1% Free Play 

Raiders +3 3.3% play 

Titans +4 3.3% play 

Colts +3.5 buy 1/2 point if available at -125 or less 2.5% play 

Jaguars +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Nebraska -7 2.2% play 

Virginia +1.5 2.2% play 

Northern Illinois +28 2.2% 

Arkansas +10 3.3% play

I trust Sam Pittman, and even though he's on the hot seat after a 4-8 campaign there were 5 games that he lost by 7 points or less last year.  I like what I saw last week from Boise State transfer Taylen Green at QB, and he fits in perfectly with what Bobby Petrino wants to do on offense, and I think Arkansas could be a darling dog in the early season.  Oklahoma State has been a very good team over the years, and I really like thier HC, but the defense really was poor last year and this is an Oklahoma State offense that relies heavily on their star RB Gordon, which typically results in closer games.  Arkansas is very strong up front, and should be able to keep this game within reach or even pull out the upset. 

Chiefs -2.5 2.2% play 

USC +4.5 3.3% PLAY 

LSU is losing a lot this year including Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two NFL WR's along with their offensive coordinator.  LSU's defense was not very impressive last year and lose 6 starters, but upgrade at defensive coordinator, but I don't see the upgrade playing dividends in game one against one of the best offensive minds in Lincoln Riley.

USC also losing talent on the offensive side of the ball, but the offensive line is as strong as ever, and QB Miller Moss threw 6 TD's in their bowl game, and Riley has always been able to get the most out of his QB's.  Where I am worried for USC is on the defensive side of the ball, and while we also may not see the improvement in game 1, the DC upgrade with D'Anton Lynn from UCLA should show up throughout the season.  They also brough in a winner from the FCS in Matt Entz to help with the linebackers.

I think we will see an entertaining game, but a game that USC has a real shot at winning, which is why I'll back them here. 

Northwestern -3.5 3% play

Nebraska -27.5 2% play

Miami -2.5 2.2% play

Penn State -7 -120 2.5% play 

Stanford +8.5 1.1% play 

49ers -7 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +3 -120 5.5% NFL POD

Bucs +6 3.3% play 

Packers +10.5 3.3%

Lions -3 3.3% play 

Packers +7.5 -115 3.5% play 

Washington +6 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this line is disrespect for Washington, but also the PAC 12, which has proven that they were one of the better conferences this year, which hasn’t always been the case.  The PAC 12 has always done well against the Big 10 for whatever reason, and actually Michigan is only 24-43 straight up vs. the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is 3-1 this year.  It may be relevant, because Michigan just does not really face quality passing teams like Washington.  They may face an efficient passing attack, but nobody that is as good as Washington nor throws as much as Washington.

The story line is that Washington has not faced a defense this good, and Michigan has not faced an offense this good, but the real story should be that Washington faced 6 top tier defenses and went 6-0, and scored 30+ points in 5 of those games.  Michigan really only faced, Alabama, Ohio State, and neither team had an elite passing QB.  Michigan’s average opponent offense ranks 90.58, compare that with Washington’s defense getting to face an average offense ranking 53rd.  

Why is this number so large, and it comes down the the advance metrics, which has Washington’s overall numbers are not as good as Michigan, but there were games where Penix was hurt, and this team was not healthy.  They were much healthier and really dominated Texas, a team that you could argue has a very similar defense to Michigan.  I think Washington is really going to give Michigan’s defense issues, I think Michigan’s offense could control the game with their rushing attack, but I don’t trust McCarthy or Harbough as much as I trust Penix and Deboer.  They have been in many tight games this season, and have found all kinds of ways to win games, including last week when they nearly choked away a victory.  Penix faced Michigan when he was at Indiana and won the game without Deboer as his coach, and Deboer faced Michigan and lost without Penix so there is some familiarity here although not as relevant with different coaches.  I think the referee assignment also will lead to a higher scoring game

Packers -2.5 -123 5.5% NFL POD

Washington +4 5.5% max NCAAF POD

Washington has won all different ways this season, and still have not gotten the respect they deserve.  Texas is getting a ton of respect for beating Alabama way back when, and they navigated their way through the Big 12 after losign in the Red River Rivalry.  Each team had to overcome adversity, but Washington did it without losing, and they did it more impressively in my opinion beating Oregon 2x, winning in poor weather, with injured receivers.  They won with defense when they needed to, and they won with the running game when they needed.  They clearly in my opinion are not a one dimensional team and this is the best offense Texas has faced all year long.  Washington has the better YPP differential against a tougher schedule just by a slim margin and I would say the PAC 12 was better than the Big 12 this season.  We saw Arizona beat Oklahoma, Iowa State lose to Memphis yesterday.  USC's win over Louisville was impressive for the PAC 12 as well so at the end of the day I think this game will be close, and I trust Penix way more than I trust Ewers. 

Alabama +2 4.4% play 

These teams met in 2020, while Alabama was 7.5 point favorite, and now they area  2, 2.5 point dog in the span of 4 years it is a 10 point move and Alabama dominated that game.  Obviously a lot has changed since that game, but lets be honest 10 points in favor of Michigan is a bit crazy.  Michigan has faced a weak schedule this season, and the Big 10 has not looked good in these bowl games - Penn State, and Ohio State both lost to SEC teams as favorites.  Alabama has the better coach, especially with extra time, while Jim Harbough has really struggled in this spot against top 10 teams so numbers aside Alabama clearly has the edge with their coaching staff.

Michigan’s defense ranks 4th, but their average opponent ypp rank is 94th.  I think they are in for a culture shock here facing an Alabama offense that really hit its strides down the stretch has all kinds of ways to beat you with the explosive pass play, the mobile QB, and an offensive line that really improved as the season went on.  This Alabama team is better than the TCU team that beat Michigan a season ago.  The SEC has really dominated the Big 10 in the bowl games and until that changes I really could not lay the points with a Big Ten team as a favorite at this point.

Vikings pk 3.3% play

Broncos -3 -120 4% play

Seahawks -4 2.2% play 

Colts -4 2.2% play 

Ole Miss +4.5 2.2% play 

Both teams are excited to be here, and have limited opt outs. Penn State had 6 players declar for the NFL draft that are traveling, but I question whether or not they will play a lot in this game.  James Franklin the last two times he has faced the SEC in a bowl game has lost to teams they arguably should have beaten.  In 2018 they were 4.5 point favorites over Kentucky in the bowl game they had a massive ypp differential edge over the regular season, but trailed 27-7 before making the final respectful losing 27-24.  In 2021 season they were a 3.5 point dog to Arkansas, and lost 24-10.  People don’t like hearing it, and it seems square to say, but the SEC is far better than the Big 10.  They have backed it up going 66-35 in bowl games +5.6 points per game. After last night’s no show by Ohio State I don’t have any confidence in the Big Ten, and feel like the conference might have been down this season quite a bit despite the praise it has gotten. 

Lets get to the match up, because both teams had similar seasons where they had a great season, but could not get past the top 2 teams in their conferences.  Ole Miss losing to Alabama & Georgia, and Penn State losing to Ohio State and Michigan.  Ole Miss gets to face an offense that has had its struggles this year ranking 73rd in ypp, and when they faced a non top 50 offense they went 6-0.  Ole Miss has to face a top defense, but looking at the defense from Penn state their average opponent rushing ypc is 83rd, there average opponent ypp offense is 72.  Ole Miss went 2-2 and put up 38 and 37 points, but struggled vs. Georgia and Alabama.  We could see the same struggles here today, but it’s worth noting both Alabama and Georgia have top tier offenses something Penn State can not claim on a consistent basis. 

Penn State are bullies.  Their #s are inflated, their ATS numbers are inflated.  James Franklin loves to lay it on late, and if there is an opportunity for him to cover this spread he will do it.  Penn State going up against top offenses and there has only been 3 has gone 1-2, with their lone win coming against West Virginia before they were a top offense to open the season.  To Me this should be a tight game throughout, and I think Ole Miss has a shot to win the game in the end. I think Ole Miss is clearly in the weight class of Penn State and these games have not gone well for Franklin in the past.

Ohio State +1 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Kentucky +3.5 1.1% Free play

Clemson against top run defenses this year 1-3.  kentucky ranks 16th in ypc and 42nd in rushing success rate.  Clemson should maybe not be favored in this game as they have many players on defense opting out.  Kentucky a well coached team, and when going up agaisnt a bad offense, which Clemson is as they rank 99th in ypp have gone 4-1.  I think Kentucky has a chance to win outright. 

Jets +7.5 1.1% Free Play 

Kansas State -2.5 2.2% play 

I think Kansas State will be motivated to get a win here despite the opt outs. NC State has a few key opt outs as well, and it’s not like they have an offense that can run away with a game.  Kansas State is well coached, and I doubt NC State can really take advantage of their weakness which is vs. the run, as NC State ranks 89th in ypc, and 107th in rushing success rate.  Kansas State is stout in pass defense, and has the ability to force turnovers too, and Brennan Armstrong is always good for a couple of those. 

I’m more excited to see the highly touted QB Avery Johnson take over at QB for Kansas State.  I think he will really stretch this NC State defense with his legs, and it will make for a very entertaining game, but at the end of the day. I just think Kansas State played in the gfar tougher conference and has better #’s against tougher competition, and after the last two Bowl seasons facing an SEC team they finally get to face a weaker opponent out of the ACC.  Dave Doeren gets a ton of credit at NC State, but if you ask me he’s kind of underperformed, and their last 3 bowl games have gone 0-3. 

usc +7 -120 2.5% play

Two offensive minded coaches going head to head with key opt outs.  Louisville will be without their two best offensive players in Thrash & Jordan, which are two huge losses.  I don’t see Jack Plummer as the type of guy that can take advantage, and USC did face Plummer a season ago so there is some familiarity.  

USC obviously not the season they wanted, but I think they are a bit desperate for a win, and when I say “they” I mean the coaching staff and Lincoln Riley.  They really don’t have the luxury of cruising and looking to next year.  They need to win and with 20 opt outs it’s prove it time.  I think the offense will be just fine, and that means this spread is too much in my opinion when you factor in the ACC has long had problems against the PAC 12.  The PAC 12 since 2010 is actually 22-4 vs. the ACC, and USC FACED 4 TOP 15 teams while Louisville only faced 2.  Their common opponent was Notre Dame, but USC -5 TO margin while Louisville +4.  

Lincoln Riley has got to put a good showing here.  This game is on the west coast, and I don’t care who the QB is he typically will have his offense ready.  Louisville’s defense has been good, but when facing a top offense they have gone 3-2 with only 1 game covering this spread which was the game against Notre Dame where they were +4 TO margin.

West Virginia -6.5 2.2% play 

Kansas -10 3.3% play 

UNLV has faced three top tier offenses this year and have gone 0-3 in those games losing by 24, 28, and 6.  I think Kansas can put up a ton of points in this one, and will be motivated to do so. Kansas has not won a bowl game since 2008, and lost last year by 3 points to a much better team in Arkansas from the SEC.  Here they get to face UNLV from the Group of 5, and while UNLV has had a great season under Barry Odom, much like the Mountain West Conference Championship game they are just happy to be here.  Kansas should be motivated to win, and their offense is elite ranking top 25 in both passing and rushing, and explosive plays.  Look for them to cover this spread.