Royals +125 4% MLB POD

I am going to back Edinson Volquez here who has been pitching great as of late over A.J. Griffin who posts an ERA over 4.00 at home and 7.20 over his last three starts.  I think the Royals are due to start hitting and they have 9 runs over their last two games.  The biggest advantage they have is out of the bullpen.  The Rangers have the leagues 29th ranked bullpen which did not come in to play last night when they sent Cole Hamels to the mound, but Griffin rarely goes deep into games pitching 6 innings just once in his last 8 starts.

Texas bullpen has a 5.55 ERA at home a 4.90 overall compared to the Royals 3.39 and 3.01 on the road.  It's now or never for the Royals if they want to get back in the mix. 

Dodgers -128 4% MLB POD

We are recommending a play on the Dodgers today and believe it is a complete mismatch with the home team owning the MLB'S #2 bullpen ERA compared to the road team owning #27.  Tampa's Chris Archer also takes the mound after 5 straight outings of 100+ pitches and has a 6.37 ERA on the road compared to 2.95 at home and he goes up against the Dodgers who are scoring a run better per 9 vs. RHP than the Rays.

Bud Norris takes the hill for the Dodgers and has struggled lately, but owns a 3.14 ERA at home with a 1.03 WHIP.  I'm confident he can put up a quality start here which is all we need when the Dodgers bullpen takes over

Astros -149 5% MLB POD play

The Yankees have been on a roll winning 6 of 8 games, but it seems they have hinted at their intentions the rest of the way by trading Chapman which weakens their bullpen.  Yankee players have to be a little bit bummed out by that and now they go on the road to play arguably the best team in the AL in the Houston Astros who are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.

I also like fading Michael Pineda after a quality start as he was outstanding last time out, but he comes into this game off 113 pitches and goes up against a starting pitcher in Dallas Keuchal has started to right the ship on his season and posts a 1.22 ERA in 5 career starts against the Yankees. The Yankees are ranked 27th in the league in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 2.25 runs per 9 over their last 10.  

The Yankees although still a great bullpen we don't know if anyone might get pulled tonight for a trade and even still they are not as good as a whole as the Houston Astros who rank #3 overall and post a 2.61 bullpen ERA at home compared to the Yankees 4.83 bullpen ERA on the road.  This to me is a complete mismatch and I don't mind spending extra juice on making a play. 

Astros -130 4% play

I like the Astros in this spot as they are currently very hot and threatening the Rangers for the division.  Oakland is just not a very good team 21-25 at home and 12 games under .500 overall. The match up in tonight's game on the mound is not a great one.  neither pitcher has been great, although Kendall Graveman has a 2.97 ERA at home many pitchers have pitched well in Oakland.  Fiers has great numbers vs. Oakland including a solid start in April going 7 innings allowing 2 ER.  Graveman on the other hand has allowed 13 ER over 4 career starts posting a 5.24 ERA against them.

I don't think either starting pitcher deserves to be favored here, but the advantage the Astros do have is in their bullpen.  If they can get this game to their bullpen they have a massive advantage ranking top 5 in bullpen ERA to Oakland who is ranked 21st.  The Astros also are top 10 in OPS vs. RHP compared with Oakland who is ranked 27th. 

Orioles +118 5* MLB POD

I like the Orioles in this spot as I see them a bit more focused and I love the value with them as a dog going up against a Rays team that's not very good coming in with a 16-26 record.  The Rays have been pushed to favorites with heavy action mainly because of Chris Archer.  Archer has a 2.70 ERA at home, but I don't care about that because he's last 7 innings against the Orioles only 1 time in his last 10 starts.  Archer has control issues and had a below average first half.  That's not to say the Orioles starter Yovanni Gallardo is much better he's actually worse.  Gallardo is going up against the 26th ranked offense in terms of OPS against RHP while the Orioles are #2.  The Orioles also have a major advantage in their bullpen where this game will likely come down to.  Baltimore ranked #4 in bullpen ERA compared with the Rays 27th.  So they only advantage is Archer and his 2.70 ERA? 

Giants -163 5* MLB POD

Mariners +126 5* MLB POD

I'll back the southpaw here in this spot given the fact that he's going against a team ranked 25th in OPS vs.LHP.  The Mariners also have a significant edge in their bullpen ranking 5th in bullpen ERA to the Cardinals 14th ranking.

Royals +111 4* MLB POD

Mariners -125 4* mlb pod

RED SOX +105 4* MLB POD

Royals +134 4* POD

Dodgers +151 4* MLB POD

I think there is a lot of value here on the Dodgers the way they have been hitting.  They have also been hitting LHP very well and I see no distinct advantage here between the two starting ptichers of Alex Wood vs. Drew Smyly.  Smyly for the Rays has been off the charts, but he's faced offenses ranked 19th, 23rd, 29th, and 27th.  The Dodgers are the best offensive and most difficult match up for Smyly to date.

Tampa has hit lefties a little better, but not of late and the Dodgers bullpen has been better of late. I also think Alex Wood showed some momentum in his last start.  Wood has faced offenses ranked 15th, 2nd, 30th, 11th and 3rd.  He's capable of giving a quality start and the Dodgers are capable of scoring a lot of runs. Smyly has a 2.60 ERA overall but an ERA over 4 in his 3 home starts. 

[b]Pirates -126 4* MLB POD[/b]

I will fade Jason Hammel here tonight who posts a 3-0 record and a 0.75 ERA, but he has been a little lucky and his ERA is bound to come back to where it should be (around 4.00) according to his raw stats.  He's walking over 3 guys per 9 and has a 4.35 ERA over his last 4 outings vs. the Pirates.  

Gerrit Cole meanwhile has pitched better with a 2.88 ERA in 9 career starts vs. the Cubs.  Cole has similar stats, but better overall control and has held Cubs hitters to .676 OPS over 107 AB.  

Rangers +157 5* MLB POD

4.5* MLB POD

[b]Royals -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

The Astros are an extremely young team, one that relies too heavily on the HR ball.  They were lucky enough to play against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium the first game, a team and offense that did not seem to exist.  Yankee Stadium is #4 in HR factor, while the Royals Stadium is #25 so I would believe this is a bad match up for the Royals.  Yordana Ventura also does not give up a lot of HR's and he is the type of pitcher that dominates come playoff team with his 97mph fastball.  Ventura has actually been even better vs. RHB holding them to an OPS nearly 100 points and he will face 6 of the 9 hitters from the right side.  He's held this Astros team to a .621 OPS without any HR in 3 starts and 54 AB.  Houston is also 19-41 in their last 60 road starts and send McHugh to the mound. 

McHugh has done a great job, but has a 1.31 WHIP on the road with a 4.05 ERA.  He's backed by a bullpen that is very good, but on the road they are over a run higher than what the Royals bullpen has done at home.  All in all I just trust the experience of this Royals team over the youth and exciting Astros team that everyone is starting to buy into.  I think we have more value here on the Royals who have the better starting pitcher going.  Ventura not enjoying as good of a season, but has been very good down the stretch.

Astros -169 4* MLB POD

Houston has been a dominant team at home all year going 51-25, while the Angels have been 32-43 on the road.  Houston has to keep pace with the Texas Rangers here, but this is more about the pitching match up for me.  Hector Santiago has really struggled the second half of the year and his surface stats (3.47 ERA) are much worse.  He's been even worse on the road hwere he's given up 15 ER over his last 3 in just 7.2 IP.  The guy has walked 22 guys in his last 7 starts spanning just 31 innings.  While he's had very good starts this season against the Astros allowing just 3 ERA, 2 of those 3 were early in the year and all 3 were at home.

Houston at home is killing lefties, and their starting pitcher tonight Lance Mccullers posts better numbers including 4 ER in 3 starts against the Angels this season while 2 of the 3 were on the road he gets to pitch at home tonight where he will be backed by a bullpen that's nearly 2 runs better in ERA in home and away splits.

Mariners -145 4* MLB POD

I will take the Mariners at this price with Weaver pitching on the road you really have to be excited as he's posted a 6.24 ERA this year with his diminishing raw stats and velocity you really can't back this pitcher.  Iwakuma has slowly been returning to form and only has 100 innings on the year because he had to come back from injury.  Iwakuma has 6 of 7 quality starts at home vs. the Angels and has held them to .604 OPS in 209 AB.  Iwakuma's stats have been down this year, but I believe it's mostly due to poor luck which I feel has started to change in recent starts that he's been impressive in.  

[b]Brewers +111 5* MLB POD[/b]

I'm going to take a shot with the Brewers here.  I really like the fact that they have hit well down the stretch - .298 average last 20 games, same as the Blue Jays.  They also have the better bullpen in this match up and have hit much better vs. RHP over their last 10 games it's a difference of nearly 4 runs per game.  Both teams face a RHP in this match up.

Koehler takes the mound for Miami and he's had a solid season on the surface, but he's been very lucky with strand % and hit %, and his raw stats suggest his ERA should be 4.5 or higher.  He's also had issues with the Brewers allowing 16 ER in 14.1 IP in his 3 career starts dating back to the 2014 season.

On the other hand the Brewers are giving Ariel Pena a shot.  Pena has a very live arm with solid velocity around 95mph with lots of movement.  He's proven he can strike guys out int he minors, but control has been his issue in the past.  I think we saw some recent starts by him this past year that suggest he's ready for the big leagues, and now he gets his opportunity and will be highly motivated facing a Marlins team whose offense is nothing to be afraid of. 

Reds +128 4* MLB POD

I will go with the Reds here tonight just on the pitching match up alone.  The Reds offense has exploded scoring 26 runs in their last 3 games and they will have another chance to do the same tonight going up against Dan Haren, who they have pretty good number against.  Haren is a fly ball pitchers which does not bode well for him going into tonight's game at Wrigley.  Haren, has also struggled of late and is coming off a 100 pitch effort.  He has to be feeling the pressure at this point and so are the Cubs having lost 5 of 6 as their offense has really let them down scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of those games.

Enter Anthony DeSclafani whose stats on the year do not do him justice.  He's improved in the second half and actually has been much better on the road posting a 2.60 ERA.  He's got 3 starts against the Cubs this year and has only given up 2 ER, but he's facing them with better skills this time around.  The bullpens are relatively the same although the Cubs bullpen has not been doing very well of late.  I look for the Reds to take game 2 as well and really start to make the Cub fans worry while San Francisco and Washington make a run. 

Minnesota Twins + 111 4.5* MLB POD

I really like the Twins here tonight. Backing Mike Pelfrey is always a risky proposition, but one we like here tonight as an underdog.  First of all Pelfrey is having a very good year if you take out some of his blow ups his ERA is quite nice, and he's pitched quality start after quality start at home posting a 1.97 ERA.  He also posts a 3.36 ERA during his night starts this year and is sporting an elite ground ball % which we really like here.

Now we are fading Mike Fiers, never a big fan, but I love it even more tonight as he comes off a no hitter.  Fiers does not have electric stuff, so it was some amazing luck the fact that he was able to throw a no hitter last time out sporting an average 89mph fastball.  Fiers has a 4.04 ERA at night and a 3.74 ERA ont he road.  RHB havea  .761 OPS off him meanwhile the Twinkies will send 8 of their 9 batters to the plate from the right side.  He also threw a tremendous amount of pitches and as we know this day and age pitchers are flat out babied.  He threw 134 pitches last time out and he now goes on the road.  I bet he doesn't last past th3 5th inning as he sports a 5.05 ERA over 9 starts following a 100 pitch effort.

Giants +102 4.5* MLB POD

It is not often that you get the Giants in a pennant race at home as an underdog, but here we go and I did fade the Cardinals the other night and lost, but I will fade them again here as this is a much more challenging road trip playing at San Francisco.  The Cardinals are favorites, because of Michael Wacha on the mound and his 2.80 ERA, but his raw stats just do not support that type of an ERA. In fact his xERA states it should be a run higher, and he's not nearly as dominant on the road or during night starts.  Wacha has largely benefited from a 92% strand rate.  Nobody is that good.  I think he's been a bit lucky like the rest of the Cardinals.

The Giants will start Mike Leake who will benefit a ton from the move to San Francisco.  He also already has 2 great starts against the Cardinals when he was with the Reds this year pitching 16 innings and allowing 2 ER.  His surface stats just do not look nearly as great as Wacha, but the Giants are playing great especially at home going 20-6 in their last 26 home games. and 16-5 when facing a RH starter.  

Diamondbacks +100 5.5* MLB POD

I am going to take the home team here which is challenging when you go up against the Cardinals who just keep winning and tonight they have a pitcher on the mound that has a 2.99 ERA, but Lackey has struggled down the stretch before.  He's already at 165 innings this year and he's been worse on the road posting a 4.40 ERA and he goes up against Patrick Corbin, an All Star in 2013 who has pretty damn good numbers especially at home with 23K's in 23 IP and a 1.13 WHIP.  Corbin is also a lefty which tends to give the Carindals issues the last few years.  They are 24th in OPS vs. LHP and they are scoring a run less in home away splits vs. LHP than the Diamondbacks are vs. RHP.  The Diamondbacks have a capable offense and I see them getting to Lackey early while Corbin won't go deep the Diamondbacks have an above average bullpen that has an ERA of 2.64 over their last 10 games. 

Royals -130 5* MLB POD

I like the Royals here although they have somewhat of an unknown on the mound in Kris Medlen he was one of the best starters in the National League for quite a while and now he's being thrown into a playoff race I think we see him at his best again down the stretch.  He will be limited in pitches, but that's not a bad thing with what the Royals have out of their bullpen posting a 2.25 ERA on the season at home.

This is every bit of a fade Ubaldo Jimenez play as the the Royals are scoring 5.36 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP with a .279 average and have been very consistent.  JImenez #'s are not nearly as good as what they show and he's struggled with just 4 quality starts out of 13 on the road where he carries a 1.54 WHIP.  I'm just not buying Jimenez here and I'll take the Royals who are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a home favorite.  

[b]Reds +135 3.5* MLB POD[/b]

I am going to take the Reds here at home they are certainly due for a win and the Diamondbacks are coming on the road with Rubby De La Rosa on just 4 days rest, and a 4.66 road ERA.  David Holmberg has not been much better with a 5.95 ERA, but I think he has not been as bad as that when you consider he gave up 7 ER in 1 of his starts which was against the LA Dodgers who are 7th in OPS vs. LHP and that start was also on the road.  Here Holmberg will have some extra rest and I feel confident about him being able to give 5 solid innings and turn it over to a bullpen that has a 1.34 ERA over their last 10 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are also 8-21 in their last 29 games as a road favorite. 

Marlins +139 4* MLB POD

There is no way I can pass up the value we have tonight with the Marlins taking on the Brewers.  First of all they will put a lefty on the mound and the Brewers are just not that great against lefties ranking 29th in OPS.  Adam Conley is young, but he has good velocity for a lefty and in his two starts he has had to face 2 top 10 offensive teams vs. LHP.  I think he will have an easier time facing the Brewers here despite being on the road. 

The Brewers will start RHP Tyler Cravy who is also young making his 5th career start.  He's really struggled and that has been against some of the worst hitting teams in the league having not faced a top 10 offensive team yet.  When we look at the bullpens and the offenses I think it's a wash, but Miami has played better of late posting a 2.20 ERA out of the bullpen compared with Miami's 4.91 over their last 5 games. 

Giants +147 3.5* MLB POD

Braves +118 4* MLB POD

I will back the Atlanta Braves here at home as the home dog.  I think the pitching match up favors the Braves as Jake Peavy has been over valued already as in his last two starts were at home he faced two of the coldest offensive teams.  Both the Brewers and the A's are hitting below .215 over their last 7 games.  Atlanta has been very good at home going 27-20 and they send Shelby Miller to the mound who is very under valued because the Braves have lost each of his last 8 starts, but the fact is Miller is a consistent quality start guy and I don't see that changing here tonight at home where Miller carries a 1.89 ERA.

Diamondbacks +126 4* MLB POD

I like this value we are getting with Arizona here today as the Nationals just got swept by the Mets and they may be feeling the pressure and really pressing at the plate at this point, because they are hitting .192 over their last 5 games and scoring around 3 runs per game over their last 10.  They will send an average pitcher in Doug Fister whose stock is higher than he deserves.  His velocity is down he can't get batters to swing and miss and he has an ERA over 5 during night starts.  I'll back the young Zack Godley on longer rest here and it also is worth noting that the Diamondbacks have been hitting and their bullpen has been superb of late. 

Mariners +110 4* MLB POD

I will go with JA Happ over Phil Hughes here.  Happ's velocity is up and he's always a consistent quality starter without many disaster starts.  Phil Hughes is exactly opposite and we have seen him starting to decline of late with a 4.77 xERA over his last 5 starts alone.  He has a very weak swing and miss rate and has been extremely lucky with an 86% strand rate and I just don't see that continuing.  Meanwhile the Twins are not playing well and have dropped 4 in a row being outscored 33-18.  I will take the Mariners here today. 

Marlins -126 4* MLB POD

[b]Astros -114 4* MLB POD[/b]

I will back the Astros here on Sunday with Dallas Keuchel having a 1.83 ERA during day games and leading the majors with 16 quality starts.  Keuchel is also on extra rest which I feel will really benefit him at this point in the season.   It also pays that hte Royals are struggling at the plate and scoring just 2.65 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10.  Meanwhile the Astros are hitting well with 5.44 vs. RHP over their last 10 and Yordana Ventura has not been the same pitcher as last year.  Some have hinted towards injury, but I don't know if that's true as his velocity is still among the best in the majors.  Hitters are just making better contact as he is one of the highest percentages of medium/hard hit balls in the majors at 90%.  Both bullpens are top tier while Houston's offense is a bit better vs. RHP than KC is vs. LHP no matter what way you look at it, overall, home/away, last 5 or last 10 games overall.  The value is right and I'll go with the Astros who are top 10 in OPS and ERA during day games this year. 

Reds -105 4* MLB POD

I am going to go with the Reds hereas I think they have a significant advantage on the mound out of the bullpen and the starter.  Anthony DeSclafani has been above average on the road posting a 2.53 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and he is the type of pitcher that pitches down in the zone and produces more ground balls which makes him a good fit for Coors Field in my opinion.  His counterpart Eddie Butler had a 1.82 WHIP before being sent to AAA in early June.  The Reds have good pop against RHP and that should be a problem for Butler as the Reds have also been hot of late with a .779 OPS over their last 7 days.  The Rockies are not that deep in their rotation and their bullpen is a mess.  I expect the Reds to get a nice win on the road here tonight.  

[b]Royals -129 5.5* MLB POD[/b]

I am playing the Royals big here tonight. I really feel like we have the value in this match up with Charlie Morton going on the road to face Edinson Volquez who has been a very consistent starter this year.  Volquez is no longer ace material, but he can look like that against the Pirates who are 21st in OPS against RHP.  The Royals are 8th vs. RHP and will face Charlie Morton who has consistently struggled on the road.  This is also the rubber game in the series and the Royals just have the hotter hitting and the better overall bullpen with the better starter.  Volquez has a 2.95 ERA at home while Morton has a 8.20 on the road.  The Royals are playing with plenty of confidence right now and are 52-23 in their last 75 games vs. a RH starter while the Pirates are 17-37 in Mortons last 54 starts as a road dog.

Braves +127 4* MLB POD

I see great value in the Braves at home here today.  First of all the Dodgers are very far from home and they start Brandon Beachy who was lit up in his first start against the Brewers just 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery.  The Braves know Beachy well so the scouting report should be top notch while the Dodgers are seeing Matthew Wisler for the first time.  Wisler was the Padres #1 prospect before coming over to the Braves and he's gotten better with each start.  I like how he has good control for a young pitcher and while he's had 1 rough outing all of the others have been pretty good.  The Braves offense has struggled lately, but being back home and facing a guy like Beachy should help them out.  The Braves also have the better bullpen in this match up as well and they are 10-3 in their last 13 home games. 

Brewers +121 4* MLB POD

I see a ton of value here with Milwaukee being an under dog.  First of all the Pirates are on quite the run, but the All Star break sure does not help any momentum.  This team still can't hit and their defense is one of the worst in the majors ranking 26th.  They will have the better pitcher on the mound here in Francisco Liriano, but he's had bad outings at Miller Park posting a 6.75 ERA over the  last 3 years.  He's had his share of struggles with a .824 OPS against these hitters and unlike his opponent he has struggled more during night starts than day starts and he's on shorter rest than Jimmy Nelson.

Nelson is on 5+ days rest has had excellent success against the Pirates and during night games, but why I really like him for this start is the fact that he has been lights out on extra rest.  In 5 starts on 5 or more days rest he posts a 1.56 ERA.  He's been getting better and better and he posts an elite 11% swing and miss rate.  He's 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Pirates this season.  I see no reason why it should change. 

[b]Red Sox -140 5* MLB POD[/b]

I like the Sox here tonight.  More so I am going to fade Ivan Nova.  Despite his ERA under 3, he is definitely not the same pitcher after 3 starts off the disable list.  He's been pretty lucky in each start as he nearly has a 1:1 K/9 vs. BB/9 ratio as his xFIP shows his ERA should be closer to 5 or higher.  He's been extremely lucky and I think that runs out here against the Red Sox who are playing their best baseball at the moment.  They are scoring over 5 runs per 9 over their last 10 overall games and they are coming off a loss at home to the Yankess which I like them to bounce back with their young gun Eduardo Rodriguez going posting a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.69 ERA overall and his raw stats are right in line with that.  Even better news is the Yankees have never faced him and they typically struggle against new starters.  Take the Sox here.

[b]Pirates -102 5* MLB POD[/b]

I really like this match up here.  Jeff Locke has been great at home posting a 2.64 ERA and he's really pitched quite well over his career against the Cardinals winning 2/3 of his starts against them.  Carlos Martinez is having a career year right now, but I believe he will come back to earth his raw stats are not really as impressive as his misleading ERA.  The Cardinals also struggle vs. LHP ranking 26th while scoring over a run less per 9 than they do against RHP.  Pittsburgh's offense is much better with this match up and they have given Martinez problems.  In 2 career starts he's allowed 11 ER in 11.1 IP.  Look for the Pirates to take this game. 

Astros +125 4* MLB POD

Cubs -125 5.5* MLB POD

I like the Cubs in Thursday's day game for various reasons.  First of all the Dodgers coming from the west coast to play in a day game starting a pitcher who is young and inexperienced on 4 days rest in a day game on the road is going to be a major challenge.  Carlos Frias has a 2.96 ERA on the road this year and that may be what's giving us some value, but he's got a 9.28 ERA during day starts and he's got a 7.72 ERA during his 4 starts on 4 days rest and this is his second start in a row on 4 days rest.  Meanwhile the Cubs bullpen is better especially looking at home/away splits where they have a run advantage and they post a 1.66ERA over their last 10.

The Cubs will start the veteran Jon Lester who is going up against the Dogers who are scoring 1.33 runs per 9 less vs. LHP than RHP.  They also have a .220 average and 2.16 runs per 9 over their last 10 overall vs. LHP.  Lester has far better stats with a nearly 4:1 ratio for K/BB while Frias does not even meet the 2:1 ratio which is a big red flag.  Lester also has pitched well during day starts with a 1.75 ERA and he's been very good on 4 days rest.  Take the Cubs here. 

Twins -141 4* MLB POD

Today's pitching match up between John Danks and Tommy Milone is pretty even for both south paws who have similar raw stats.  The major advantage is their individual performance against opposing hitters.  Milone has had 4 of 5 QS in 32.1 IP allowing just 5 ER against the White Sox hitters while opposing hitters have a combined .564 OPS against him.  White Sox are also ranked 30th in OPS vs. LHP this year.

Meanwhile Danks has allowed 20 ER over his last 4 starts against Minnesota and looking back to his last 6 starts at Minnesota see's a history of struggles in every start adding up to 30 ER in 30 IP.  The Twins are scoring over 2 runs more per 9 innings vs. LHP on the year and their bullpen is about a run higher when you look at the home/away splits.  The offense has struggled a bit lately, but so have the White Sox.  I believe the value here is right as the line should be more like -160 or so.  Take the Twins. 

Oakland Athletics -129 5.5* MLB POD

I really like the A's here to bounce back from their 2 game losing streak after they had won 4 in a row.  Their offense is killing it right now and all they need is the right match up which is what we have today in a day game.  First of all the A's pitching staff is 5th in ERA during day games while the Angels are 30th, dead last in OPS during day games and they come in with a 5-11 record.

Jesse Hahn will make the start for Oakland and he has a career ERA under 2 in day starts.  I really like his chances going up against the Angels who hit LHP better anyways.  Jerred Weaver on the other hand will have his hands full.  While Weaver has a great history against Oakland his last 3 starts at Oakland have not been as great allowing 14 ER in 19.2 IP.  His 5.57 ERA on the road and the fact that both left handed batters and right hand batters are hitting him hard leaves me to worry.  Weaver has not pitched well in his 2 day starts and he will be on 4 days rest here for the 3rd game in a row and has posted a 6.64 ERA this month.  He'll face Oakland who has been killing RHP scoring 7 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. RHP.  They also hit the curve and change very well which are pitches Weaver definitely leans on throughout an outing.  I'm expecting Oakland to bounce back here with a nice win after losing 12-7 the night before. 

[b]Braves +102 4* MLB POD[/b]

There is a lot of value here on the Braves as the Red Sox offense is really beat up right now.  Shelby Miller actually has the edge over Clay Bucholz in this spot. Both whom are on 4 days rest and Miller has the edge with a 1.59 ERA in his home starts to go along with a 0.97 WHIP.  He's had 5 of 6 quality starts on 4 days rest this year and all 3 at home were great including a complete game shut out.  Bucholz on the other hand has had 3 of 5 quality starts on 4 days rest and 2 he gave up 4 ER without getting past the 5th inning.  Right now Atlanta is a little better vs. RHP and their bullpen has started to turn things around while Boston has struggled.  I look for for the Braves to win back to back games here.  

[b]Giants -110 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

We have an interesting battle here between two similar starting pitchers in terms of raw stats, but I'll take the veteran at home over the youngster on the road on just 4 days rest.  Walker has a 8.27 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP on the road this year and in 3 road starts on 4 days rest he's allowed 16 ER in 12.2 innings pitched.  The Giants are a very good offense ranking 6th in OPS vs. RHP and I see Walker getting bounced out of this game early.  Hudson meanwhile can get by with his experience and it should help that the Mariners batters only have a 74 AB against him for a .520 OPS.  Hudson has a 1.17 WHIP at home and his bullpen is also better.  He also gets to go against the Mariners offense which is 28th in OPS vs. RHP. 

Cubs -115 4.5* MLB POD

Johnny Cueto starts for the reds on 4 days rest on the road after a 103 pitch effort last time out.  Cueto has not been nearly as good on the road this year as he typically is and I actualy think the Cubs have great value here with Jason Hammel.  Hammel has 5 days rest along with being at home and having better raw stats than Cueto.  Hammel has an amazing 9:1 K/BB ratio on the year and it's not like the Reds are tearing the cover off the ball.  .228 average 3.02 runs per 9 on the road vs. RHP.  Reds are really better vs. LHP, and their bullpen is not nearly as good as the Cubs.  Overall I just think the Cubs have every advantage including the starting pitcher, offense, bullpen, and home field advantage.  Take the Cubs.  

[b]Royals -129 4* MLB POD[/b]

I really like the Royals here on Sunday while the starting pitchers are not very exciting we have an excellent advantage and the value is right for us to play the Royals big.  First of all Colby Lewis who has given up 21 runs in his last 4 starts alone is going on 4 days rest on the road during a day start.  I don't anticipate him being able to go deep into the game when he has a 5.56 ERA on the road, and a 11.70 ERA during day starts in fact Texas is last in the league in ERA during day games and KC is #7 in OPS during day games.  I expect the Royals to look to avoid the sweep in their home park and they will send Jeremy Guthrie to the mound who has 6 straight quality starts vs. the Rangers.

Even if both pitchers don't do well we have the Royals superior bullpen ranking #1 in the majors up against the Rangers 26th ranked bullpen and the majority of their pitchers are worse during day games which is a big advantage here for the Royals.   

Marlins +107 4* MLB POD

This is a veteran battle with Dan Haren taking on Jon Lester.  Both starters have essentially the same ERA on the year, but Haren will start at home and has a far better WHIP.  Lester will also face the Marlins a top 10 offense vs. LHP and he's struggled vs. some of their veteran hitters in 87 AB vs. Lester the Marlins have a .391 average and 1.004 OPS.  Lester is however on 5+ days rest, but he seems to have his worst outings in that situation and it's hard to see him getting to up for a game in Miami at this point in his career.

Haren on the other hand faces a struggling Cubs offense that is scoring just 2.74 runs per 9 over their last 5 and he has held these hitters in check.  IN 73 AB they have a .219 average and a .571 OPS.  I'm expecting Miami to be able to steal this game from the road team and getting them as an under dog to me is a steal. 

[b]Angels -111 4* MLB POD[/b]

The Blue Jays are really struggling especially their starters and now their bullpen is also a mess and it seems to be bleeding over to the hitters as well as their average has dropped .25 pts in the last 10 games alone.  Dickey makes the start for the Jays, but so far he has not pitched well with 3 quality starts in 8 tries.  I think Shoemaker who has also struggled has better raw stats that should lead to greater success and the Angels bullpen is a half run better on the season. 

Orioles -130 4* MLB POD

Orioles -109 4* MLB POD

This is decent value here for the home team although they have the bullpen disadvantage they have the advantage on the mound here.  Wei-Yen Chen has allowed 3 ER or less in 9 of his last 10 starts vs. the Rays and he's got a career 3.26 ERA over 13 against them.  He's on extra rest here (7 days) and the Orioles have gone 21-8 in his last 29 home starts.  Baltimore offensively has the clear cut advantage and Nate Karns should not scare them.  IN fact in 30 AB against him they have a 1.132 OPS.  Karns is also walking 5 per 9 innings and has been lucky that his ERA isn't worse than the numbers show considering the .194 batting average balls in play.  That's extremely lucky and I think he has a tough task ahead of him facing the Orioles who are scoring 6.59 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home this year. 

Braves +100 4.5* MLB POD

These odds are great for the home team.  The Braves bullpen has been so bad this year I normally would not touch this team, but they come into this game facing a team with a bullpen that is just as bad if not worse.  So in reality it's an even trade off so looking at the starting pitching I see the Braves in a significant advantage based on a few variables. 

Jason Marquis is coming off a high effort 8 innings 2 ER on 113 pitches and at his age that will be hard to duplicate going on the road on just 4 days rest against Atlanta who is 11th in OPS vs. RHP.  Atlanta's offense is not elite, but at home and against RHP they have been pretty damn good.  They are scoring more than a run per 9 better vs. RHP and have averaged 5+ runs per 9 at home vs. RHP and 6.35 in their last 5 games overall.  Freeman, Markakis, Maybin and AJ P all have good numbers against Marquis.

For Atlanta they will start Eric Stults who in reality won't get anyone excited about wagering.  However, Stults is pretty consistent and when you look at the fact he's done pretty well vs. 4 top 11 offenses to start the year and now he faces the Reds who are 22nd in OPS vs. LHP and 20th on the road there is a lot to be excited about at this value which says the Braves are under dogs which I can no accept given all the facts we have outlined.

Astros -115 4.5* MLB POD

I'm going to go with the Astros here who come in red hot scoring 9.20 runs per 9 over their last 5 games while posting a 1.26 bullpen ERA meanwhile the Mariners who are supposed to be the better team come in on the opposite side of the spectrum scoring under 3 runs per game and a bullpen ERA over 3.  Bullpen is extremely important in this one as they are likely to go to it very early and the Astros have the advantage.  Seattle's bullpen has not been as good early as they were overall last year and James Paxton has been unable to go deep into games.  Paxton will be on the road on 4 days rest which is no easy task for him considering he's been on normal rest all season long.  He's also faced some easy talent along the way with his opponents ranking 17th, 24th, and 23rd in OPS vs. LHP.  Seattle is 18th, but still come in on fire and are certainly capable of defeating him by being patient.

The Astros will start the veteran Scott Feldman who has allowed .669 OPS to the Mariners hitters and posts a 2.67 ERA over the last 3 years in April.  He's off to a slow start, but really it was only 1 start that he struggled as he has had to face Oakland twice already who is the 5th ranked offense vs. RHP.  In this game he can relax a bit facing Seattle who is 22nd.  I just think the value is right because many are high on Seattle, but they can struggle offensively and I don't trust the young kid Paxton on the road with just 4 days of rest.  

Cubs +107 4* MLB POD (Cole/Hendricks)

I'm going to back the Cubs as they go for the sweep of the Pirates.  On paper it looks like the Pirates have a good chance to win game 3 here, because Hendricks numbers are not very impressive from an ERA perspective over 5, but when you really look at it Hendricks has a 1.09 ERA his 49.3% left on base % is extremely unlucky.  He also had to face two of the best hitting teams in his 3 starts in the Padres and the Rockies (on the road).  He's back at home with an extra day of rest compared with his opponent who is on 4 days rest and on the road which is really like 3.5 days.  Hendricks pitched well enough vs. the Pirates to get a win, but was a little unlucky and I bet that changes here at home.  Pittsburgh is 25th in OPS vs. RHP and are scoring 2 runs less per 9 over their last 5 games while the Cubs bullpen has out performed them so far in this early season.

Gerrit Cole is a stud and should be around for years, but I will fade him on the road on short rest. His previous 3 starts at Wrigley have been average allowing a 4.00 ERA and I expect the Cubs to only need a couple of runs to get a win.  Cole also is off a season high 108 pitches which could factor in here.  I look for the Cubs to continue their early season success and get the sweep!

Athletics -145 4.5* MLB POD

I will take Oakland in this spot following being swept at home they get a day off with the Angels coming to town.  It's not like the A's have played poorly offensively.  They have really struggled vs. LHP ranking 29th in OPS, but they face Jerred Weaver a RHP whicht hey have success against.  His last two starts in Oakland did not go well 12.2 IP 20 base runners and 8 ER.  His velocity is down 3 mph on average from last year and he's giving up 25% line drives on batted balls.  He's never been a good raw stat guy, but he's gotten by with insane numbers at home, but over the last 3 years his ERA is 1.40 worse on the road.  In 2011 it was 2.93 which is exceptional, 2012 3.21, 2013 4.00, and then 2014 4.70 when he had a 2.68 ERA at home.  Weaver is just not a road dog and you simply can't back him going 7-19 in his last 26 as a road dog.

Oakland's hurler Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Angels with a 2.57 ERA over 6 career starts.  He's also held Pujols and Trout to 5-32 in his career which is pretty special.  Angels right now are 25th in OPS vs. RHP and their bullpen is starting to show their true colors.  Oakland hits RHP hard at home with 6.21 runs per 9 and I think with a day off they will be hungry to rebound behind arguably their best starter in Gray. 

Cubs -120 4* MLB POD

I like the Cubs int his spot and think they have a significant enough advantage on the mound tonight with Jason Hammel stepping up to face the Pirates in his second start in a row.  Hammel will be back at home for this one where he has 2 7 inning performances a year ago against the Pirates allowing just 5 ER combined.  Hammel has had some bad luck this year to start and his raw stats indicate he should get his ERA back down in the 3's.  He's striking out more than 8 per 9 and he's walking less than 1 per 9.  That's impressive when you consider Vance Worley is walking 4 guys per 9 innings right now.

Worley also on 4 days rest and going on the road which is not an easy task for anyone.  Worley is off 106 pitches in his last outing which was also against the Cubs who are ranked higher than the Pirates in OPS vs. RHP 13th vs. 22nd.  I also like the fact that Hammel in his last 3 years has a 2.64 ERA in his April starts v.s Worley who has a 4.45.  Worley has been the luckier starting pitcher so far this year and the Cubs are coming in hot at the right time scoring 5.81 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 games. 

Blue Jays -130 4.5* MLB POD

This is a good spot to take the Jays as a small favorite at home.  First of all we have Chris Tillman on the mound going on the road on just 4 days rest to face the Jays who he has struggled against.  He's actually off 105 pitches in his last game as well and in his last 4 vs. Toronto he has an ERA near 9.00.  Over the last 3 years he's got an ERA at nearly 7 for his starts at Toronto who have a .877 OPS against.  The good thing for the Jays is they have been hitting the ball despite struggles from two of their best hitters, but it appears Edwin Encarnacion has figured it out as he belted 2 HR in Tuesday's game and has hit Tillman hard in the past.

Jays will counter with Hutchison who has struggled to start the year in 2 of his 3 starts, but he's a bounce back pitcher and is following 2 poor starts and will be on 5 days rest.  He's got a career 2.29 ERA vs. the Orioles and a 1.71 ERA in 4 home starts against them.  I'm betting he bounces back and the Jays also have the better bullpen as Baltimore ranks 27th in bullpen ERA.

Mariners -115 4* MLB POD
Taijuan Walker had a great spring and is off to a horrid start, but that's what gives us good value here.  Along with the fact that Mchugh, the Astros starter is off to a great start.  The difference is Walker has had two starts on the road vs. two top 5 offenses while McHugh has been at home vs. 1 top 5 and a 28th ranked offense.  I think everything will change here for these starters as Walker will be more in his comfort level having had 4 starts vs. the Astros in the past with very good results holding them to a .219 average.  He also gets to go against Houston's offense which is ranked 26th in OPS vs. RHP.  Seattle has the better offense and just came off 11 runs a day ago expect that to carry over here.

Padres +120 4* MLB POD

I will play the Padres here tonight as I expect them to have a pretty significant advantage with or without Justin Upton.  The odds are in our favor here as Jorge De La Rosa takes the mound for the first time against a hot hitting Padres bunch.  The Padres are just tearing the cover off the ball right now led by the resurgence of Matt Kemp.  This team is 4th in OPS vs. LHP and collectively are hitting .388 wiht a 1.035 OPS against De La Rosa over a 139 AB.  Kemp is 15-39 with 3 HR against the south paw.  De La Rosa also struggles in his night starts and in April over the last 3 years with ERA's over 4 for both.

San Diego will give Despaigne another start and although he had challenges on the road last year I think he's good enough to get it to the bullpen with a lead.  He has good stuff and had 7 shutout innings in August with 8 K's against the Rockies.  The Padres have a significant advantage out of their bullpen while the Rockies bullpen is not well rested since they haven't had one starter go past the 6th inning over their last 10 games.  I just like that we get an under dog here with the stronger pitching and the hotter bats.  More of a reason to play the Padres here tonight. 

Cardinals -139 4* MLB POD

The Cardinals are already off to a great start, but now their offense is starting to come alive with 4 or more runs in 7 straight games and they have hit much better off RHP which they will face here today.  Homer Bailey makes his first start after a so so year in 2014.  Bailey is coming off the DL to start the year and I don't anticipate him going deep into this game which means more issues for the Reds bullpen which is already ranked 27th to start the year with a 4.70 ERA compared with the Cardinals fresh bullpen ranking 3rd with a 1.82 ERA.  Bailey also has had enormous issues with the Cardinal hitters in 200 AB against he's allowed a .360 average and a 1.013 OPS.  Sure he's had his occasional quality start, but he's just got a lot going against him against a healthy Cardinals line up that just has really killed him in the past.  Bailey also has not been typically at his best in April posting a 4.10 ERA over the last 3 years along with a 3.93 ERA during those day starts.

Cardinals will start somewhat of an unknown here to the majority of the public in Carlos Martinez.  Martinez is the typical Cardinal young stud pitcher.  He's pitched a lot in the bullpen and is making his slow transition into the starting rotation.  This can be his year, but he's still just 23.  Martinez has one of the best swing and strike rates at 12.9% and he's already proven it against this line up in his first start of the year going 6 innings and striking out 8.  He allowed 2 runs but both were off solo home runs which I expect him to eliminate here at home.  He also does not have to go deep into this game as the Cardinals bullpen is strong after Wacha and Lackey went 7 innings the last two nights.  Martinez weakness is walking guys, but the Reds are in the bottom half of the league in drawing walks and were 25th in walks a year ago while being in the top half of the league in strikeouts.  This is a good match up for Martinez and I don't think 1 start vs. the Reds will be enough for Cinci to have any type of advantage. 

White Sox +110 1* Free Play

The Tigers have been hitting LHP hard, but they haven't faced someone as good as Chris Sale yet.  Sale has gotten better with each start vs. the Tigers as he posts a 1.97 ERA over the last 2 years covering 59.1 innings pitched against the division rival.  Sale enters this game on 5 days rest while his opponent is only on 4 days.  Over the last 3 years Sale has pitched extremely well during day starts with a 3.02 ERA compared with Anibal Sanchez's 3.67 ERA.  Sanchez also has 6 starts vs. the White Sox with a 3.72 ERA which is pretty good, but not as good as Sale's stats.  The White Sox are a dog because they have struggled early this year, but they seemed to be turning it all around over their last 5 games they are hitting .293 vs RHP and are scoring 4.80 runs per 9 vs. RHP.  They also have a 1.54 ERA out of their bullpen which is expected to be better than the Tigers.  All in all there is too much value on the Sox in this spot. 

Don't miss out on Freddy Wills' NBA POD which has gone 89-71 ATS in his career in April!

Red Sox -122 4* MLB POD

I really like the value we are getting with the Sox here at home where they have been tearing the cover off the ball.  They will also face Ubaldo JImenez here who they have domintated over the last few years posting a .974 OPS in 120 AB.  Jimenez is coming off a great start and it's been difficult for him to post back to back quality starts this early in the season.  In fact he's had a 6.09 ERA during the month of April over the last 3 years.

Joe Kelly will counter here and I really like his raw stats and history against the Orioles posting a 3.44 ERA in 2 starts in his career against the O's.  Kelly has posted a .502 OPS and his only downfall has been his control.  I think he's ready to take his game to the next level this year and if not his bullpen has a 2 run advantage to start the year compared to his opponent. 

Jays +100 4* MLB POD

You won't get the Jays as an under dog very often this year at home.  This is a superior offense that has scored double digit runs in 3 of their last 6 games.  The line is explained by Chris Archer and his success in Toronto along with his first start success which was 7 shutout innings of the Miami Marlins.  It's much different having a second quality start for Archer in a row against an offense that is much better than Miami.  The Rays are also 6-13 in his last 19 starts following a quality starts.  Archer has the potential, but he's not really consistent and I look for some of the same problems to factor in with tonight's game.  I also feel that the oddsmaker is not giving Aaron Sanchez enough credit.  He struggled vs. the Orioles, but I think he'll be fresh for this game and will be able to get it to the bullpen with the lead.  Sanchez was electric out of the bullpen last year with a 1.09 ERA in 33 innings out of the bullpen. 

 Angels -125 4* MLB POD

We are getting great value here with the Angels with this line dropping 30 points here.  First of all Weaver struggled in his first start against Seattle on the road, but that's nothing new for him.  Weaver is never going to have the sexy raw stats, but I'll take him at home at this number where he has posted a 2.57 ERA over the last 3 years.  He's also posted a 2.84 ERA over that time in April/May starts and a 1.38 ERA vs. the Royals.  Guthrie on the other hand has not had as great success with a .843 OPS vs. the Angels hitters allowing 10 HR in 157 AB.  He has 30 GS in April/May over the last 3 years and an ERA over 4.20.  KC has started hot this year, but still even the best teams lose about 40% of their games. 

[b]Blue Jays -124 4* MLB POD[/b]

I don't think Sabathia is going to be the same and the Yankees must not be impressed by making him start game 3 here.  The Yankees will have a tough time this year in my opinion and tonight they go against the Jays who have a bit of revenge on their mind after losing late in yesterday's game.  I think Toronto has one of the best offenses and their young pitcher Daniel Norris was very good during the spring posting a 1.08 WHIP and greater than 9K's per 9 innings. 

[b]Orioles -113 3.5* MLB POD[/b]

I think this is a pitching mismatch with the experienced Chen facing off against Nathan Karns who has 24 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Chen has been a proven commodity and this Orioles team is still built to win this year and they get Chris Davis back tonight as well after server the 25 game suspension.  Chen also looked better than Karns did int he spring this year so I'm giving him a huge edge on the hill and the price I'm asked to pay is not too expensive. 

Royals -138 4* mlb pod

Royals -119 4* MLB POD

The disadvantage in this series is clearly coaching, but tonight I don't think the coaching will matter as Ned Yost will send a much better starter to the hill for game #2 in Yordana Ventura.  Ventura has completely dominant stuff built for this type of game with his average 97mph fastball and nasty breaking stuff that should keep Giants hitters all night long considering they have never faced him.  The Giants are 7-16 in their last 23 as a dog and will send Jake Peavy to the mound who the Royals are quite familiar with and quite fond of facing with nearly 200 career AB they essentially have a .300 average.  Butler and Gordon both have averages over .300 against him and Peavy's 7+ ERA in his career post season play leaves a lot to be desired.  His last 3 stops at Kaufmann resulted in early exits allowing 15 ER combined over 17.1 IP.

Giants +100 4* MLB POD

Royals +105 4* MLB POD[/b]

I trust the Royals pitching at home.  Wei Yen Chen looked like crap down the stretch for the third year in a row and in my opinion he's not used to throwing over 200+ innings which has caused ERA's over 5 in September in his career.  The Royals will go with Jeremy Guthrie who has a very high pitching IQ and is used to throwing a lot of innings and can come up with the occasional gem.  He's pitched to the ground ball and the Orioles will have issues hitting it out of this ball park.  Teams that rely heavily on the HR in the playoffs typically struggle and the Royals arguably have one of the best bullpens in baseball backing Guthrie up.  I expect the Royals to do all they can to get the 3-0 lead on the Orioles tonight. 

Giants +114 4* MLB POD

Orioles -127 4.5* MLB POD

I like the Orioles in game #1 despite what seems like an advantage for the Royals on the mound with James Shields.  Shields had a 4.58 EAR over the last 3 years at Camden Yards and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have very good numbers off of him.  Chris Tillman of the Orioles continues to fly under the radar as he posted a 2.33 ERA over his last 14 starts pots All Star break including a complete game shutout vs. the Royals on the road.  The Royals need to play small ball to win this game, but the Orioles team is very well coached and are 5th in fewest allowed steals.  Tillman has only allowed 2 stolen bases in the last 2 years spanning over 60 starts.  Baltimore's offense was ranked 6th in OPS vs. RHP vs. the Royals who were ranked 18th and in the post season the Orioles have a .810 OPS compared with the Roayls .611.  Orioles should take this game at home and have the better coached team in my opinion.

Cardinals +104 5* MLB pod

[b]Cardinals +157 4* MLB POD[/b]

This is a fragile Dodgers team and now that they lost in the fashion that they did with their ace on the mound I don't think they can recover.  Their is no glue in the club house and those type of teams just don't go on to win the World Series I don't care how talented you are.  Lance Lynn has enjoyed a great season particularly in road starts with an ERA under 2.50.  This line offers us plenty of value and the Cardinals are no strangers to the post season.  

Orioles -105 4.5* MLB POD

Detroit is not made for this right now and Baltimore just has too good of an overall team.  The Tigers turn to Justin Verlander and the name is big which is giving us value on the Orioles, but Verlander has not been himself all year with a 4.54 ERA.  If you take the name away and see the odds and you see the bullpen advantage that the Orioles have and they are home you'd be all over this line.  However, the fact that Verlander is a power arm it's moving money towards Detroit.  I'm just not buying it right now. 

Wei Yen Chen had an average first half, but he seemed to get stronger as the year went on.  He's a better overall option than Justin Verlander here.  He posts a 3.54 ERA on the year 2.76 since the All Star break over 13 starts and the Tigers never got to face him. Chen won't have to go very deep into this game all the manager is asking for him is to get to 5 innings and they hand it over to one of the deepest bullpens in baseball, Detroit has a 4.29 ERA ranked 27th, but a 6.84 ERA over their last 10 games compared to the Orioles who have a 2.12 ERA.  It's also worth mentioning that the Tigers over their last 10 games have struggled vs. LHP which they'll face today, hitting .179 and scoring 0.82 runs per 9. 

[b]Royals +101 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

I will take the home team all day long despite Jon Lester being on the mound with a ton of post season experience.  The A's offense really struggled down the stretch and they were not very good on the road in the second half of the season.  Really since they made the trade for Lester this offense has sputtered without Cespedes in the middle of the line up and I don't see it changing here against James Shields.  

Shields was dominant down the stretch 34:5 K:BB ratio over his last 6 starts alone and the Athletics line up has a .215 average with an OPS

REd Sox -109 4* MLB POD

Royals -140 4* MLB POD[/b]

This is arguably Kansas City's biggest game of the year and their opportunity to get into the playoffs for the first time since 1985. They just got done taking two of three different from the Cleveland Indians but they left the door open and I think that door will be shut tonight with their ace on the mound. James Shields has been absolutely dominating and even better on the road and the Royals have been great on the road 44 – 33 compared to 42 – 39 at home.

Over the last two seasons Shields has gone 20 – five with a 2.48 ERA. He's also been strong down the stretch. He's got a 2.67 ERA in four starts against the White Sox and the type of pitcher that can handle these big moments.

Mariners +109 4* MLB POD

I am fading Mark Buehlre here today.  The Mariners have 3-8 over their last 11 games but they are still alive for the playoffs.  Mark Buehlre was 10-1 one with a 2.10 ERA on June 2. Since then he's gone to a nine within ERA almost at five and he's been pretty much like batting practice. She's constantly pitching with more than one runner on base and pitching out of GM's and it certainly caught up to them over the last month of the season.

Taijuan Walker Will take the mound for the Mariners in his arm is extremely fresh with not a lot of innings on it for the season. Meanwhile Toronto starter is approaching 200 innings for the 13 consecutive year. Walker has an outstanding 16% swing and miss rate. Walker is very young but he's a top 10 prospect and brings upper 90s heat with a powerful curve. I think he'll give you a quality outing tonight and the Mariners still have the best bullpen in baseball with the 2.60 ERA compared with Toronto who is ranked 26th. 

Royals +111 4* MLB POD

I'll go with the Kansas City Royals tonight as my and the LB play of the day. The Yordano Ventura has been as hot this season and he's been even hotter down the stretch he's been solid on the road as well with a 3.17 ERA through 12 starts.  What I like most about Ventura is the fact that he's got a 1.98 ERA in four career starts against the Indians who could not score a run last night.

The Indians got hot while the other changes in the playoff race got cold and they were suddenly 3 1/2 games out of wildcard spot with three games against the Royals ahead of them. However, they pretty much showed that opportunity away last night against the Royals as every one of their hitters was trying to be a hero swinging for the fences. I doubt they will be able to come up with much against an arm like Ventura.

The Indians starting pitcher is Danny Salazar and he has not been that great this season. When games of matter most down the stretch he's posted an ERA over five over his last three starts and he's got an ERA welder for in his career against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals actually are trailing the Detroit Tigers by just one game in the AL West and have plenty of opportunity to win the division which is highly coveted verse being a wildcard team. 

SF GIANTS +110 4* MLB POD

The San Francisco Giants really need to come out of the series with multiple victories over the Dodgers. With a chance at still functioning a playoff spot on the line they are desperate after losing six of seven games. They also still have a chance to win the West but it has to start tonight with one victory over the Dodgers.

They begin the series with Jake Peavy on the mound which is a good thing considering he is 14 – 3 with a 2.28 ERA in a 0.975 with him 26 career starts against the Dodgers.  Peavy has also been red-hot down the stretch going 6-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last seven overall starts while allowing only six ER over 48 innings pitched.  Danny Haran is simply feed material when he's a home favorite going 14 and 23 over his last 37 games between this line.

Twins -140 4* MLB POD
Phil Hughes has been under rated all year long yet he leads the majors in strikeout to walk ratio and has been great against the Indians posting a 1.67 ERA over 4 starts.  Indians send Bauer to the mound, but he's struggled on the road with an ERA over 5 and he also has an ERA over 5 against the Twins.  I'll take the Twins as the home team this late in the season.

Jays +110 4* MLB POD
I will go with the Jays on the road as they are just red hot right now trying to make a push towards the post season.  Their line up has already had success agaisnt Wei-Yin Chen - .956 OPS as he has a 2.00 WHIP against them lifetime.  The Jays are hitting .310 vs. LHP scoring 8.10 runs peer 9 over their last 10 while their bullpen has been solid as well.  We also get Marcus Stroman on extra rest here tonight and he's been the Jays best starter.  This is a particularly bad match up for the Orioles because Stroman does not give up HR's just 1 in his last 10 starts and the Orioles rely on the long ball to get victories as they lead the majors in home runs.

Red Sox -107 4* MLB POD
Baltimore is being carried by Nelson Cruz right now and that's never a good thing in baseball, because you can easily pitch around them.  The Red Sox look in good shape to pull the upset here on Monday night with Joe Kelly taking the mound (see last year's nubmers in September).  He's got a 2.55 ERA over his last 3 starts and the Orioles have never faced him before including Nelson Cruz.  Expect a quality pitching performance as he's also fresh and on extra rest.

For the Orioles they wills tart MIguel Gonzalez on 4 days rest who has a 3.79 ERA on the road.  Gonzalez has quality starts against the Red Sox but he's supported by a bullpen that will do his team in tonight as they are posting a 5.20 ERA over their last 10 games and worse over their last 5.

[b]BLUE JAYS -123 4* MLB POD[/b]
Rubby De La Rosa has a 1.43 WHIP on the year and a 3.89 ERA, but it should be far worse, but he's been able to strand a lot of runners.  He comes into this game making his 4th start against the Blue Jays and he has not performed well with an ERA over 7.  The collective line up has a .370 average against him and a 1.00 OPS meanwhile R.A. Dickey makes the start for the Jays and has posted a 2.49 ERA vs. Boston over 4 starts.   It doesn't look like he has to face the Red Sox most dangerous hitter in David Ortiz who is doubtful.  Boston is also 26th OPS during day games while Toronto is 6th. I'll take the Jays to avoid the sweep as they still have a slim chance of getting back into the wild card race in the AL.

Yankees -117 4*mlb pod
I will back the Yankees here as they fight to get back in the mix.  Basically KC has not blown me away at all lately as they are struggling to score runs just 2.74 per 9 vs. RHP in their last 10.  The Yankees bullpen has an ERA under 2 in their last 10 and Michael Pineda has yet to give up more than 2 runs in any start.  He's just pitched great and his arm far more fresh compared to other starters like Shields with just 43 innings on the season.  Shields does come into this game on 5 days rest but he's the type of pitcher that needs to stay in a rhythm.  He has only 2 quality starts on 5 days rest on the road and today's line up has hit him well including Jeter, McCann, and Ichiro 3 veteran leaders that know what it takes to get into the playoffs.

Cardinals -111 4.5* MLB POD
The Brewers in a major skid right now and we get good odds because Wily Peralta has dominated the Cardinals, but the Cardinals have turned into their typical September selfs and have scored 7.25 runs per 9 over their last 5  compared to the Brewers who are at 2.20 and have been dominated during their 8 game ski 55-16.  Something seems wrong with Peralta, 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts with a 2.07 WHIP.  Meanwhile their bullpen has not helped 6.08 ERA over their last 5 and a 5.40 in their last 10.  MIchael Wacha returns for the Cardinals and his arm should be fresh coming off the 60 day DL and I think the Cards win this one.

[b]Twins +118 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
I'll take value here with the Twins and I give them a good chance to avoid the sweep.  Phil Hughes has a 2.94 ERA on the road this year and a good mix of results vs. the Orioles over his career pitching 4 quality starts in his last 6 against them.  Kevin GAusman has a 4.40 ERA at home and a 5.13 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP during day starts.  IN fact Baltimore has not played well during day games going 19-25 ranked 29th in ERA and 17th in OPS.  The Twins oddly enough are ranked #1 in runs scored during day games 3rd in OPS and are 29-29 and just came off a game they scored 8 runs.  They are scoring well over 6 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and they face a pitcher who is average at best.

Yankees -120 4* MLB POD
Yankees are playing well right now and I think we get them at a cheap price when they have an advantage in the starting rotation with Michael Pineda who is obviously fresher than most of the starting pitchers at this point in the season.  The 1.95 ERA on the season and again with the time off his arm strength is stronger than most.  Yankees also are a very good day team going 28-17 on the season while the Blue Jays are just not playing well this month going just 7-17.  Jays are also 4-14 in their last 18 vs. a RH starter.

Yankees have success against Drew Hutchinson who is 2-6 with a 6.33 ERA in 9 day starts and has a 7.08 ERA in 4 starts against the Yankees this season. 

Braves -150 4.5* MLB POD
The Mets come back from a West Coast trip and it's hard to see them getting up for this game without their two leaders in the line up in Daniel Murphy and David Wright.  The Mets on the season are 28th in OPS vs. LHP and that is with David Wright who has a .384 average and a .967 OPS vs. LHP this year.  Without Wright the Mets would likely be last in the league and now they are also without their best hitter in Daniel Murphy who owned tonight's starter Alex Wood going 5-11.  This should make it an easier night for Wood who goes up agaisnt a Mets club that is hitting .158 vs. LHP over their last 10 games.

The Braves have really turned it around and trail the Giants by 1 game.  Their bullpen has really tightened up as well as their entire pitching staff posting a 2.18 ERA combined over their last 10 games.  Dillon Gee gets the nod for the Mets, but he's had just 1 quality start over the last 7 starts. The Braves are 37-13 in their last 50 following an off day and I see no reason why they would not win this game tonight.
    

[b]Royals -135 4* mlb pod[/b]
James Shields has owned the Yankees since becoming a member of the Royals in 3 starts he posts a 1.29 ERA.  Over the last 3 years he's dominated the month of August with a 2.67 ERA and that holds true this year where he has a 2.17 ERA thus far.  He comes into this start facing the Yankees who have scored just 2.94 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games on extra rest.  In 4 home starts on extra rest this season he has a 1.24 ERA.  The Royals are 35-16 in his last 51 starts.

Michael Pineda starts for the Yankees in his 3rd GS since coming off the DL.  This start is on 4 days rest and he's already not being pushed so I believe the Yankees bullpen is going to be asked to do too much in this one.  The bullpen has already been struggling posting an ERA over 6 over the last 10 games. 

[b]Brewers -132 4* MLB POD[/b]
I'll take the Brewers especially following a loss to the Pirates on their home turf.  Not much statistically differs between these two teams as far as offense, and bullpen, but Milwaukee is home in this one and it's been a huge advantage for them over the Pirates going 51--13 in their last 64 meetings here.  Not to mention I believe they have the advantage on the mound tonight in Wily Peralta who has posted a 1.59 ERA over the last 6 weeks.  Peralta has a quality start in all 3 of his major league starts vs. the Pirates as well giving up just 5 ER in 20 innings of work.  Volquez has always been the type to struggle late in the season (8.24 ERA the last 3 years in August) and on the road.  Previous to this year he really struggled against the Brewers 4.62 ERA in his previous 6 starts but this year he has 3 quality starts against them, but I think that ends here tonight as the Brewers get to him early and build a lead.

[b]Texans +7 3.3* play[/b]
I took the Texans a few weeks ago and they were shut out now they play the Broncos.  The Broncos just shut out a very good defense/offense in the 49ers 34-0 last week and almost everyone played well.  I think they lay a bit of an egg here and John Fox is known for not having a good week 3.  I don't see Peyton Manning playing as long as your traditional first string plays in week 3 of the pre season since he's been so good there really is no reason to risk any type of injury.

Jays -115 4.5* MLB POD

[b]Cardinals -114 5* MLB POD[/b]
I am going to fade the Reds here with Jonhny Cueto on the mount.  He's just 2-7 in his last 9 starts vs. a winning team and this is the time of the year the Cardinals start to concentrate and get on a run and it's exactly what they have done winning 6 of 7 including the first two games of this series.  Their offense has picked it up scoring 4 or more runs in their last 7 games which will be plenty in this match up tonight.

Lance Lynn has dominated this season at home and during night starts posting ERA's under 2.5 in both scenarios he finds himself in tonight.  He'll face a REds line up that has struggled all season vs. RHP and of course in St. Louis.  The Reds are just 18-41 in their last 59 visits here and even though they have their ace on the mound tonight he has to be due to struggle.  This is Cueto's 5th start in a row on 4 days rest and 4th in 5 starts on the road so he's done a ton of traveling and not a lot of rest in between.  Cueto has been beat up by Matt Holliday and Jon Jay specifically but overall the Cardinals have a .905 OPS vs. Cueto in 124 AB with a .315 average.  The Cardinals offense has really picked it up of late and I think when you take a look at the bullpen advantage they have right now it's a nice price to get them at home at.

[b]Pirates -112 4* MLB POD[/b]
I feel like these odds are decent for a match up between two teams who are pretty similar.  The Braves really struggle at home but are able to dominate at home and that's exactly what the Pirates are, and of course Pittsburgh is the home team tonight.  Ervin Santana has been struggling over his recent starts 3.88 ERA overall on the road as well and he faces the Pirates who are ranked 5th in OPS vs. RHP and are scoring 1.5 runs per 9 innings more than the Braves.  The Pirates bullpen ERA is also a run better when you take a look at the bullpen splits for home and away, but the biggest thing is the Pirates success at home vs. a RH starter as they are 21-7 in their last 28.  Vance Worley has filled in pretty nicely for the Pirates sporting a 2.00 ERA at home over 5 starts at PNC and he will have a nice match up against the Braves who rank 26th vs. RHP in OPS.

[b]RED SOx -158 4* MLB POD[/b]
I'll take my chances with the Red Sox at home vs. a bad road team in the Astros.  The Astros also don't hit RHP well this year compared with LHP.  Allen Webster's numbers look worse than they really are but I'm encouraged by his last start vs. the Angels which sports a much better lineup than the Astros.  Webster who has an extra day of rest for tonight's start at home went 6.2 IP allowing 2 ER in LA in his last start.  The pitching is the main concern for the Astros as their bullpen has just been bad all season.

Houston has a 5.03 ERA which is worst in the bigs they are even worse on the road with a 5.65 ERA and there have been no signs for improvement.  The Red Sox bullpen has been decent ranking 12th with an ERA in the 3's but performing better of late helping them win some games lately (3 in a row).  However, the biggest reason I am making this a POD selection at this price is Scott Feldman.  Feldman has pitched great of late, but he faces a Red Sox line up that added Yoenis Cespedes who is 3-8 off of him while Feldman has already struggled vs. the Sox.  4 of his 6 career starts were disaster starts and he's allowed an OPS over 1.000 to 7 of 9 hitters in today's lineup which is 38-93 against him.  I don't see Feldman going deep in this game and with the bullpen that supports him this game could be an easy win for the Sox.

[b]Mariners -165 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I really like the Mariners as the season has progressed and I predict we will see this team in the playoffs.  Their bullpen is just simply the best in the bigs right now and that's the major advantage they have in this match up tonight.  On the season they have a 2 run advantage, but Toronto's bullpen is getting a bit gassed especially after the 19 inning game on Sunday and then traveling to Seattle was not an easy situation.  I look for the Mariners to complete the sweep mainly because of their pitching and they are the hotter team right now scoring 6 runs per 9 over their last 10 with a 2.00 ERA compared with the Jays who are scoring 2.66 with a 4.55 ERA.

Iwakuma has been flat out nasty 2.88 ERA at home with a 0.92 WHIP and a 1.66 ERA over his last 3.  He's owned the Jays as well in 3 career starts allowing 4 ER in 22.2 IP which is good for a 1.61 ERA.  I don't see the Mariners slowing up they are good for a playoff run with this pitching staff that continues to fly under the radar.  I think we are paying a steep price, but my other two leans don't look as promising.

[b]PADRES -160 5* MLB POD[/b]
I will risk a max bet here on the Padres as this is just a flat out mismatch in every sense of the word however, we are getting a good price, because almost nobody respects the Padres boring playing style.  The Padres bullpen is over 2.5 runs better than the Rockies overall and over 6 runs better in the last 10 6.42 vs. 0.27.  They hold the edge on the starting pitching match up as well as Jesse Hahn has been great 1.07 WHIP 2.41 ERA over his last 3 vs. Jordan Lyles 1.60 WHIP 4.80 ERA.  Lyles also has a 6.93 ERA over his career vs. the Padres and a 9.72 ERA in 2 starts this year.

Colorado is 16-46 in their last 62 road games vs. a RH starter and they don't even hold the edge in offense when we take a look at home/away splits and San Diego is a very pitcher friendly ball park so I'm sure their offensive numbers are even lower when they are used to playing at pitcher friendly parks on the road, but tonight that won't be the case.  The Padres are 31-27 at home this season playing well right now and I see no reason for that not to continue as the Rockies who still remain banged up by injuries will continue to struggle.

Braves -121 4* MLB POD
We have clearly hit a bit of a bad streak right now with 4 losses in a row on POD's including a couple by 1 run, but we look to bounce back Sunday night with the Braves looking to take the series from the banged up Nationals.  On paper it appears that Washington has the advantage with Gio Gonzalez taking the mound, but I think it's actually the opposite as Gonzalez has been having a rough season and now he faces the Braves who are 9th in OPS vs.LHP  and have hit him well.  Gonzalez 5.40 ERA in his last 5 starts and has a 5.31 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP in 10 starts vs. the Braves.

Alex Wood on the other hand has been great as a starter for the Braves over 15 starts he has a 2.96 ERA and has split two decisions against the Nationals with a 2.25 ERA.  Washington is 17-40 in their last 57 as a dog to +150 and are 10-25 in their last 35 meetings with the Braves.  The Braves need this game chasing in the NL East after their poor performance over the last couple of weeks.  I think taking this series which is tied at 1 will be a big deal.

Phillies -167 4.5* MLB POD Cole Hamels is on an extra day of rest here and has been on fire over his last 3 starts with a 0.39 ERA. Over his last 3 starts vs. the Mets he's also been on fire allowing 2 ER in 22 IP. The Mets are 28th in OPS vs. LHP on the season and are off a win last night something I do not see them duplicating here tonight. The Mets send Dillon Gee who has struggled since coming off the DL posting a 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts and he's had a poor start in every single one of his last 5 starts in Philadelphia with 28 ER in 23.1 IP for an ERA well over 5. It should also be noted that the Mets are scoring just 2.05 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games and Cole Hamels is typically at his best in August (2.05 ERA the last 3 years over 15 starts)

Blue Jays -115 4* MLB POD
Happ has been very solid at home this year and he's been very solid vs. the Orioles throughout his career posting a 2.35 ERA over 4 career starts.  Miguel Gonzalez on the other hand has a WHIP over 1.30 on the season where Toronto is 35-17 in their last 52 vs. such starters.  Gonzalez also has been poor in Toronto losing 4 of 5 starts.  The Jays started to break out of their slump last night by scoring 5 runs and the Orioles are 16-42 in their last 58 in Toronto.