First and foremost, when laying points, the number matters. Minnesota Lynx are getting enough with the +3.5 to +4.5 spread depending on who you look at. That should be enough cushion in what should be a tight game down the stretch. Dallas Wings are the home team favorites, but this one doesn’t necessarily feel like a spot where they should cover as outright winners.

In terms of betting sites, Covers has Minnesota listed at +4.5 while other sportsbooks have Lynx closer to the +3.5 mark with the total hovering around 178.5.

Minnesota is without Napheesa Collier and Dorka Juhasz, but injuries were already factored into the spread. The Lynx have also shown they can keep games within reach without their best player thanks to rookie Olivia Miles stepping up on the offensive end. Miles had 21 points and eight assists in Minnesota’s season opener, and the Lynx can space the floor with her creating shots.

Dallas is talented enough to win this game, but it’s still a young team searching for offensive consistency. Wings lost 77-72 to Atlanta in their opener and star rookie Azzi Fudd was ruled out with a knee injury right before tipoff. She returned to practice Monday, but there’s a chance we see limited minutes or she does not play at all on Thursday.

If that’s the case, Dallas will need even more from Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale and Odyssey Sims offensively. Without floor-spacing from Fudd, there’s a good chance games become outsized LeBron James vs. Anthony Davis matchups inside with the two teams clawing for positioning.

Minnesota will want to avoid a track meet. Dallas has three capable guards who can get downhill and get easy buckets in transition if the Lynx fall behind early. If Minnesota controls the pace of the game with Miles and Kayla McBride, and its bigs can grab enough rebounds to limit second opportunities, then the Lynx will cover.

Playing on the dog feels right in this spot too because Dallas has not proven yet that they can cover multiple possessions against quality teams. Wings do have the upside to make some_noise in this league this season, but there are still questions with rotations and now possibly Fudd’s health early on. Minnesota has enough guard play, cutters and late-game shooters to keep this game close.

Jim's Play: 637. Min. Lynx 

Opening the case for Detroit begins with home court. The series stands tied at 2-2, so Game 5 returns to Detroit where the Pistons have successfully covered the floor twice in this series. The Pistons also should enjoy a significant bounce-back factor heading into Game 5. Detroit fell in Cleveland 112-103, but that contest swung on a massive second-half outburst by Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers wing scored 43 points on 39 points after the break. Cleveland also got a major free-throw discrepancy, as Mitchell alone attempted more free throws than the entire Pistons team. Expecting that to happen again, especially at Little Caesars Arena, would be folly.

Arguably the biggest reason to back Detroit on Wednesday though is Cade Cunningham. Detroit has relied on their rookie all postseason and at home I trust him to control the tempo of this game. Get downhill, attack the rim, make Cleveland’s guards work, and allow Detroit’s other weapons to beat you.

Detroit does not need to blow Cleveland out to cover the spread. The Pistons merely need to win the possession game, avoid fouling, and limit the Cavs easy transition baskets.

Yes the Cavaliers still have Donovan Mitchell and he has been incredible, but Cleveland has been forcing him to do way too much for far too long. Mitchell has scored over 27.5 points in each of the last three games and against Detroit’s defense Cleveland has been far too Mitchell-heavy offensively. Detroit making him work for his shots and getting contributions from elsewhere on the road gives them the better cover profile.

We are set for the swing game of the series and Detroit has the favorable setup. Home floor, coming off a disappointing loss in which they were blown out, a short spread, and a defensive identity that attacks the basket without fouling and forcing opponents into jumpers. If Cunningham can dictate pace and Detroit keeps Mitchell away from the charity stripe, Detroit should cover with a nice chance to win outright as well.

Jim's Play: 518. Pistons

I understand why the Minnesota Lynx are underdogs Tuesday against the Phoenix Mercury. The Lynx are talented, but they play without Napheesa Collier (ankle) and will also be without Dorka Juhasz listed as out. Those factors lead me to like the Lynx to keep this game close, however.

Minnesota’s bench was impressive in their opener, losing by one point to Atlanta, and rookie Olivia Miles was fantastic with 21 points and eight assists. Minnesota will need Miles to continue creating offense, but if veteran guards such as Kayla McBride, Sylvia Fowles and Layshia Clarendon provide enough offense, Minnesota can stay inside the number.

Phoenix is a very talented team, but they have also already shown a propensity to be inconsistent. Phoenix opened with a blowout win against Las Vegas, but returned home and lost by 16 points to the Golden State Warriors, giving up 95 points on 17 turnovers that the Mercury promptly turned into 24 points in transition for the Valkyries.

If Minnesota can apply defensive pressure and force Phoenix into mistakes, then they can create transition offense of their own and negate some of the size/star-power deficit they’ll be facing.

Minnesota doesn’t even need to win this game outright. They just need to hang around and rebound well enough, avoid falling into big scoring droughts, and make the Mercury execute with the game on the line. The Mercury will probably sort out whatever early-season chemistry issues they have as the season progresses, and Minnesota has already shown they can hang with anybody even without Collier. Give me the points with the Lynx. 

Jim's Play: 627. Min Lynx  

The first reason I think New York beats Philadelphia on Sunday is because of the series itself. The Knicks lead 3-0 after another Game 3 win at Philadelphia, 108-94, and they’ve been the tougher, deeper, more balanced and connected team through the first three games. Jalen Brunson had another stellar performance with 33 points and nine assists, and New York kept answering every Philadelphia surge.

Depth and toughness have been New York’s biggest advantages through three games. The Knicks have won the battle on the glass and physically they’ve been tougher. New York also hasn’t had everything go perfectly to win games. OG Anunoby sat out Game 3 with a hamstring strain, but New York still won by 14 on Philly’s home floor. Landry Shamet gave New York a solid lift off the bench and Miles McBride stepped up and helped eat minutes while still continuing to receive solid two-way contributions from Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart.

Brunson is why I think New York can close this series now, too. Philly has really not had an answer for him when the game is on the line, and when Brunson gets downhill it forces the Sixers into rotation after rotation defensively. That leads to offensive rebounds, corner threes and easy buckets for the Knicks’ role players. When playing a closeout game, the team with the best half-court creator typically has the advantage, and New York is the team with the best half-court creator.

Philadelphia’s biggest problem is they still do not have Joel Embiid fully right. Embiid came back for Game 3 after sitting out Game 2, but he’s still dealing with hip and ankle problems and we’ve seen his mobility affected. He’s probable for Game 4, but if Embiid can’t dominate the glass and protect the rim like he usually does the Sixers are forced to rely on Tyrese Maxey and Paul George creating offense and making shots. We’ve seen how well that formula can work against this Knicks team.

I really think the Knicks just need to avoid falling into that dreaded closeout-game-on-the-road slow start. If New York can match Philly’s energy early on, stay competitive on the boards and let Brunson run the late-clock offense they should cruise. The Sixers will fight you for maybe a half, but New York’s defense, depth and late-game execution should be enough to wear Philly down.

Jim's Play: 505. Knicks

San Antonio is visiting Minnesota on Friday, May 8 for Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Currently,  The Timberwolves are getting multiple possessions at home in this series that is tied at 1-1. Minnesota has reasons to bounce back and Cover at home while San Antonio will struggle to hit the number multiple times.

Minnesota is a huge bounce-back spot play. The Timberwolves got dominated 133-95 in Game 2, but blowouts in the playoffs can open value on the team that got blown out. Minnesota had 22 turnovers, were manhandled in transition and San Antonio shot 41% from three. All things that can easily bounce back at home where Minnesota’s role players feel comfortable playing and the crowd can create defensive energy.

Minnesota’s defense should still be good enough to keep this game close to the number. Minnesota has the length and physicality to make life harder on Victor Wembanyama and DeAaron Fox than they did in Game 2. Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert and Minnesota’s frontcourt need to be more physical on the glass and more disciplined when the Spurs get the ball in transition. Minnesota can live with Spurs shooting nights if they force them into half-court basketball.

The injury report is not great with Anthony Edwards questionable, Ayo Dosunmu questionable and Donte DiVincenzo out, but the line already has some of that baked in. Minnesota will have their star shot-maker if Edwards is able to play and they can easily win this game outright. If Edwards is limited or cannot play, the Wolves can still cover by locking in defensively, boxing the Spurs out on the glass and forcing San Antonio to play in a half-court setting. San Antonio has their full roster and are dangerous, but expecting them to win by 5+ points on the road after they had everything go their way in Game 2 is asking a lot.

If Minnesota can avoid another slow start filled with turnovers, this has Cover value. If the Wolves take care of the basketball, clean up their transition defense and get a semi-average shooting night at home, I feel like this will be a close game down the stretch. Minnesota is getting enough points to Cover, and if Edwards is ruled active and can play, they can win this game outright.

Jim's Play: 574. Wolves  

The Liberty are heavy favorites despite sitting on multiple injuries with the market listing New York as double digit chalk. Favorites that high typically have a reason and again that’s because New York has an abundance of championship-level talent at the top of its roster while Connecticut opens the season with a reshaped roster that will undergo some growing pains.

Breanna Stewart is the biggest reason to side with New York. She may have even more of a rockstar workload with Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally and Rebecca Allen all expected to miss the opener. But if Stewart is your best player and you’re New York, attack the mismatches you’ll inevitably create, get to the foul line and let your defense win games. The Liberty are signing hardship exemptions due to the short roster, but this team was constructed with enough depth and veteran savvy to beat a team like Connecticut at home in an opener.

The Sun have far bigger questions to answer entering Friday. Connecticut opens the season with significant roster turnover and won’t have Aaliyah Edwards or Shey Peddy available for the opener. Both of those absences hurt their depth and offensive continuity. The Sun added names like Brittney Griner and Kennedy Burke, but this roster is still searching for answers and familiarity on opening night against one of the league’s best teams.

Basketball-wise, the matchup also gives New York the edge. Connecticut may struggle to score enough just to keep itself within the large number. The Sun can definitely grind it out and play tough defense, but if they endure any sort of shooting droughts early, New York can make this a blowout in a hurry. Whether it’s their defensive length, home-court advantage at Barclays Center or Stewart taking over games in the half court, the Liberty have all the tools necessary to establish an insurmountable lead by halftime or early in the third.

This spread is obviously big, so again the question becomes whether New York can let its foot off the gas pedal late. Facing a shorthanded Connecticut team that’s building something new, New York should be able to exert enough defensive pressure and score with enough balance to not let the Sun hang around. If Stewart receives decent contributions from the supporting cast and New York dominates the glass, this game has the potential to cover easily as a comfortable opening-night victory for the hosts.

Jim's Play: 604. NY Liberty 

The Philadelphia 76ers to win and cover Friday night is first and foremost built on desperation. Philadelphia enters Game 3 down 0-2 in the series knowing that this is essentially a must-win situation at home. Nobody wants to go down 3-0 in any series, let alone the playoffs, and the Sixers should be playing with the highest of energies now that we head to Philadelphia. Not to mention, the market has shifted enough to put this game into winnable territory with Philadelphia as a small favorite. 

Philadelphia largely showed that progression in Game 2 already. They were getting destroyed in Game 1 before showing up ready to play Wednesday and pushing the Knicks in a 108-102 loss. This tells me the series is tightening up. Philadelphia will not need a complete reinvention to win this game. They need better possessions, fewer turnovers and a better finish down the stretch. New York is holding Philadelphia to 37 turnovers through two games and scoring 48 points off of those turnovers, so if Philly can take care of the ball, they will be in great position to win the game.

Speaking of protection, the injury report opens a real door for Philadelphia here as well. Joel Embiid is questionable to play with both an ankle issue and a hip issue. Obviously if Embiid plays this game takes a complete 180, but even a limited Embiid helps change things defensively for New York. Embiid in the starting lineup forces New York to play defense in the paint differently, puts pressure on Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns defensively and opens things up for Tyrese Maxey and Philadelphia’s shooters. The Knicks also have injury concerns of their own, as OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are both questionable to play in Game 3. Anunoby is dealing with a hamstring strain, while Hart has a thumb injury. OG has been huge for New York this postseason averaging over 21 points per game, so any hiccups there would damage the Knicks on offense and defense.

There are a lot of factors that play into this, but everything starts with Tyrese Maxey for Philadelphia. Maxey was forced to do too much in Game 2 and Philadelphia understandably ran out of steam late, but being at home should help the Sixers find a more balanced attack. Maxey can create off the dribble against Jalen Brunson and the rest of New York’s guards while George and Oubre will need to provide enough offense from deep to prevent the Knicks from doubling Maxey every chance they get. Even a slight bump from Philadelphia’s bench would go a long way in this game.

Give New York credit, they have played well enough to be up 2-0. But I feel like this is about as classic of a series-shift spot as you can get. The Knicks took care of business at home, but Philadelphia gets homecourt advantage now in terms of the crowd, urgency and adjustments. Philadelphia was really close in Game 2 despite shooting themselves in the foot several times. With better ball protection, more frequent trips to the foul line and the potential addition of Embiid, the Sixers have everything they need to cover the short number and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 572. 76ers 

Our Cavaliers vs Pistons NBA Finals pick starts with the number. Detroit is a small home favorite here on Thursday, which gives Cleveland enough points to cover the spread in a game that likely comes down to one possession like any playoff game would. 

I like Cleveland to cover and possibly win outright here in game 2.  Game 1 was very fixable for them. Cleveland lost by 10, but they coughed up the ball 19 times and Detroit turned those turnovers into dominance of the game. This is adjustment No. 1 if it happens at all. If Cleveland simply takes better care of the ball, gets into their sets before Detroit can trap the ballhandler, and stops giving the Pistons easy transition buckets, we see this game tightening up in a hurry. Cleveland still shot 45% from the field and nearly 37% from three in Game 1, so this wasn’t a game where they completely lacked answers offensively.

Free-throws are another reason to like Cleveland on Thursday. Detroit shot 19 more freebies than Cleveland in Game 1 and that swing typically doesn’t happen twice in a series. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden both need to attack the paint more, and Evan Mobley needs early touches around the rim to collapse Detroit’s frontline. If Cleveland attacks the free-throw line at a higher rate and eliminates empty possessions, the Cavs have enough offense to not only cover the number, but come away with the win outright.

That brings us to the other half of the upset equation: Cleveland’s defense. Cade Cunningham and the Pistons offense were clicking in Game 1, but the Cavs have enough talent to improve upon those numbers. Mitchell can keep pace with anyone shooting the ball late, Mobley and Jarrett Allen provide rim protection, and Max Strus is a floor spacer who can change momentum by knocking down a couple of timely triples. Detroit was money from downtown (38.5%) in Game 1 and if that shooting regresses at all, Cleveland has a chance to control the game.

Lastly, there’s a desperation factor at play here. Dropping down 0-2 before heading back to Cleveland would doom this Cavs team, so you have to expect their best effort on Thursday. We’re not going to go dumpster diving on Detroit at home, but they’ve played one game and now the Pistons are being tasked with proving Game 1 wasn’t a fluke against a motivated opponent. Cleveland wants it more at this point, has homecourt advantage with a chance to close games late, and should only need a better offensive performance to win this game.

Jim's Play: 567. Cavaliers 

Our best bet for the Chicago Cubs Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds is on the Cubbies to cover the -1.5 run line. Chicago gets right-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga to the mound on Thursday night. He’s coming in at 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA. Cincinnati will send out righty Rhett Lowder who enters the game 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Lowder also had a poor showing against Pittsburgh last outing, giving up eight runs in just 1.1 innings. If Chicago takes care of business early, Lowder will be ripe for the taking.

Chicago is hitting on all cylinders right now too. Entering play on Thursday the Cubs were sitting at 25-12 overall and atop the NL Central. Chicago had just taken two of three from Cincinnati, winning the series finale Wednesday night in walk-off fashion. Eight straight wins is impressive, but they’ve been especially dominant at home. Getting to Lowder early will only help the Cubs chances at extending their home winning streak.

Runs will be at a premium on Thursday night since this is a run-line play. Chicago should be able to take advantage of the starting pitching mismatch to ensure they get separation on the Reds. Imanaga should give Chicago some clean innings to prevent Cincinnati from jumping on him early. Lowder will likely struggle again for Cincinnati and put them in a hole early. If Chicago can get to him by the second time through, Cincinnati will be forced to dig even deeper into their bullpen that has already been taxed in this series.

The Reds will be feeling some fatigue after Wednesday night’s loss as well. Cincinnati dropped six straight and eight of their last ten coming into Thursday. The Reds bullpen has now given up two late leads at Wrigley this series. With both starting pitchers potentially struggling, Cincinnati could easily find themselves in another slugfest they have no chance of winning.

With the money line priced so high, our best bet is laying the -1.5 runs with Chicago. The Cubs have every opportunity to cover this spread as Imanaga should hold Cincinnati’s potent offense in check. Couple that with the Cubs offense getting an opportunity to face Lowder and Chicago should win this by at least two runs.

Jim's Play: 902. Cubs -1.5 Runs 

Right off the bat, let’s start with this spread Wednesday night being inflated. New York is laying too many points for Game 2 and that is a big price to ask after a Game 1 blowout. The Knicks annihilated Philly 137-98 in game one, but that margin of victory should create some line value in tonight's game.

The Sixers don’t even need to win to cover this bet. Philadelphia just needs to be more competitive than they were in game one, and I do believe there is a serious bounce-back setup after getting blown out on national TV.

Philadelphia came into this game tired. They played a tough first-round series and had less than 48 hours to rest before Game 1 against New York after Game 7 against Boston. You could see it in their legs, their defense rotations, and their ability to take care of the ball. Philly had 19 turnovers which led to 25 points for the Knicks. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson dropped 35 on them early and 27 of those came in the first half.

Those are things you can fix. Philly will have a full day to recover, watch game film and come up with a Game 2 gameplan. Expect this team to look much sharper. 

Another reason I like Philadelphia keeping this one closer than the points implies is star power. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George were not at their best and it is hard to see that trio being quiet again. Especially when Philadelphia’s injury report is completely empty going into Game 2.

It matters because the Sixers’ path to covering this spread leans heavily on their top-end talent carrying more of the scoring load and getting to the foul line. If Embiid can attack Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson in the paint, New York’s frontcourt fouling becomes a huge swing factor.

It’s the playoffs. Series are about adjustments and Nurse is a smart enough coach to switch coverages, slow Brunson’s rhythm down and force Maxey into tough attacking positions.

I believe this game is about Philadelphia’s pride at this point. After losing by 39 points, you have to think they’ll come out with better energy, a tougher defensive physicality and a more game-plan oriented approach on offense. I do still think New York wins this game at home but betting the Knicks to cover a high number against a healthy and desperate 76ers team feels dangerous.

Jim's Play: 561. 76ers 

I'll be taking the small points tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers in their opening 2nd round game against the Detroit Pistons. For starters, we’ll look at the point spread number itself. Detroit sits on a small number at home, which gives Cleveland leeway to lose by two and still cover. That might not sound like much, but in a second-round Game 1 between two teams that each just played seven games, any cushion is huge.

Perhaps the biggest advantage Cleveland holds entering Tuesday is the fact they’ve been here before. Sure, Detroit won more games during the regular season (60-22), but they’re still a relatively inexperienced team being asked to come into Game 1 as favorites in the playoffs. Cleveland returns with Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and a core that has experienced multiple playoff runs together. These Cavs just finished grinding through seven games with the Toronto Raptors, which is exactly the type of win that can help focus a team going into Round 2.

Mobley and Allen should also help Cleveland limit Detroit on the glass. Both players give Cleveland a legitimate size advantage inside to at least slow down Detroit’s Jalen Duren, while Mitchell is the type of shot-maker Cleveland can turn to when the game slows down late. This will come down to execution in the half court, and Cleveland has enough playmakers to prevent themselves from getting into too many scoring droughts.

Detroit is still a formidable foe, especially at The Palace. This team can hang with anyone on a given night, but the Pistons aren’t catching the Cavs at their worst. Cleveland’s injury report is empty heading into Game 1, while Detroit lists Kevin Huerter as questionable with a thigh/adductor strain. Huerter may very well play, but Detroit losing a healthy guard hurts their already-guard depleted lineup.

Huerter being out would limit Detroit’s already-limited perimeter attack, which they’re going to need if they want to create separation from Cleveland. If the Cavs can stay in this game through three quarters, the home crowd may not be enough for Detroit to create late. Mitchell can create his own shot against any defense, and Cleveland has the frontcourt defenders to make life tough for everyone else.

Give Cleveland some room early, and the Cavs have every chance to make this a physical, low-scoring affair down the stretch and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 555. Cavaliers 

The under on San Antonio and Minnesota’s Game 1 total has a nice profile because the number is parked higher than what my own numbers came in this game. That’s a tall number for a playoff opener featuring an injury-laden Minnesota team and a Spurs squad built on principles like limiting opponents’ transition chances and defending the rim. 

I also like the under because Minnesota comes into this one hobbled. Anthony Edwards is questionable with a knee injury while backup point guard Ayo Dosunmu is also questionable, and other game preview articles have pointed out Donte DiVincenzo will miss this game. If Edwards sits or even plays limited minutes, Minnesota’s ability to create shots and score in transition takes a huge hit, which is conducive to a lower playoff total.

The anticipated style of play favors the under, too. This series will likely be won and lost on the defensive end, with San Antonio counting on its top defender Victor Wembanyama to protect the rim while switching wherever he lines up on defense. San Antonio perimeter defenders like Stephon Castle will help Wembayama lock down driving lanes, while Minnesota’s best weapons to slow San Antonio’s attack are themselves defensive-minded players like Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. Game flow that allows each team to mostly succeed by playing through the defense instead of pushing the pace supports a low opener.

Game 1's tend to open slower than their Game 2 counterparts as teams feel each other out. That general playoff-angle reason to consider the under is amplified here by Minnesota’s injuries and overall exhaustion coming off a grind-it-out series against Denver. Minnesota pushed itself immensely to beat Denver in seven, while San Antonio gets to come in rested and ready to defend. The Spurs might dictate pace in Game 1, forcing the Wolves to choose their spots and spend possessions trying to simply stay in games instead of trading offense.

When you combine those angles, the case for the under is straightforward: The number is high, Minnesota might be without or playing without its best offensive player, and both teams want to play in the half court and make their opponent execute offense. If Minnesota is at less than full strength and San Antonio dictates tempo like its matchup suggests it should, I think Timberwolves-Spurs stays under the number on Monday.

Jim's Play: 553. Timberwolves / Spurs UNDER

Toronto covers Friday for multiple reasons. First off, Toronto has every reason to believe it can cover because it’s playing on its home floor in an elimination game. Plus, the number is large enough where the Raptors would still win the bet if Cleveland wins outright.

As it stands, the series is tied up at 3-2 Cleveland after the Cavs came back to win Game 5 125-120. Toronto is back in action with desperation and the Raptors have home-court advantage for Game 6, where crowds historically help underdogs stay in games.

Toronto covers because they were already good enough to cover throughout most of Game 5 then just let it slip away late. Toronto had leads of 12-plus points multiple times and even led 74-67 at halftime before Cleveland mounted its second-half comeback. For a spread bet, that matters because it showed Toronto wasn’t totally overmatched. The Raptors have already demonstrated they can create the script it needs to win.

An injury angle also exists to the Raptors’ benefit, surprisingly enough, even though Toronto is already shorthanded. Guards Immanuel Quickley went down in Game 5 and will miss the remainder of the series, which is obviously not ideal. However, Cleveland basically had to overcome Toronto by leaning on a fourth-quarter explosion from Dennis Schroder to steal Game 5, and Toronto was able to produce from RJ Barrett and Ja’Kobe Walter.

Couple that with some recent reporting suggesting Brandon Ingram is doubtful for Game 6 after leaving Game 5 due to an injury to his heel and Toronto’s chances to cover start looking even better.

Finally, there’s always a simple spot argument: Cleveland is tasked with closing on the road, and those games tend to tighten up. Cleveland might be the better team overall, but Toronto showed multiple times in this series that its defense, physicality and home crowd can make games ugly enough to where they stay within the number. If Toronto can avoid getting into a long second-half funk like it did on Wednesday, covering feels like a reasonable outcome on Friday night.

Jim's Play: 522. Raptors 

Orlando has plenty of reason to hit the board on Friday as we’re looking at a home elimination game with the spread staying in buyable territory. Pistons at Magic is Friday night’s game on May 1 and  Detroit is the road favorite while Orlando is shown as the home team with Franz Wagner out and Jonathan Isaac questionable. Detroit is no health beacon itself as both Kevin Huerter and Tobias Harris are also questionable.

One reason to expect Orlando to beat the number is that they’ve already proven they can make this series ugly and low scoring enough to hit against the spread. The Magic won Game 4, 94-88, on the back of 20 Detroit turnovers and  the Pistons didn’t make a field goal over the final five minutes until a buzzer beater went off. If the Pistons struggle to score late in games against Orlando’s defense then they’ll likely have issues keeping this one within the spread.

Speaking of low scoring games, there’s also a healthy bounce-back play regardless of Detroit winning Game 5. The Pistons won that one 116-109 but  Orlando still scored 45 points from Paolo Banchero and made a serious fourth quarter rally before falling. That’s important because the final score wasn’t lopsided at all and shows the Magic can still produce enough offense to keep things close even if Detroit has a massive night from Cade Cunningham.

Finally, covering just because of game flow is always a thing. Detroit has won to extend the series, but now they’ll have to go back on the road to finish things off and cover spots can often be tighter than expected on that end. Orlando showed earlier in the series that they could protect home court with a 113-105 win in Game 3 followed by the Game 4 win mentioned above. Now the Magic are back home with everything to play for so it sets up better as a grind rather than blowout.

Orlando hosts again, won twice at home already in this series, and its defensive nature allows it to keep games close. If the Magic forces turnovers again and Banchero cooks again they have every chance to cover Friday’s game.

Jim's Play: 526. Magic 

Cleveland has some strong reasons to play through Wednesday and cover as favorites in Game 5. This is the quintessential home Game 5 bounce-back opportunity in a series that’s currently tied 2-2, and the public is still betting on the Cavs as the better team ahead of Wednesday. 

Speaking of health and injuries, Cleveland happens to also have a huge advantage there coming into Game 5. The Cavs have zero players on their injury report heading into Game 5, while Toronto is again slated to be without Immanuel Quickley due to his hamstring injury. When the spread is this big, missing a starting guard and capable shot creator matters — especially in a road environment during a swing game.

Finally, there’s some juice to be had from simply how Game 5 ended for the Cavs compared to how Toronto won Games 3 and 4. Toronto knotted up the series with wins of 126-104 and 93-89 in Games 3 and 4, respectively. However, Cleveland actually won Games 1 and 2 by larger margins at home before the series went north of the border. That feels important because it shows Cleveland has already played a home game that was good enough to cover this number; they just need to duplicate that performance now that they’re back in Cleveland for Game 5.

On a basketball level, the best reason I like Cleveland to cover is actually how Toronto’s adjustment has manifested itself throughout Games 3 and 4. Reports coming out of this series have said the Raptors have slowed down Cleveland’s pick-and-roll attack by switching off James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, forcing the Cavs into tougher perimeter shots and contributing to Cleveland’s 25% three-point shooting output in Game 4. That can sound scary if you’re a Cavs fan, but it actually helps Cleveland coming into Game 5. They know exactly what Toronto has done to slow them down, and their solution is on full display: better ballhandling to avoid traps, improved spacing, and less stagnant offense. Teams often make their best tactical adjustments in the first game back at home after a loss on the road.

Between the factors above, the case for Cleveland to cover Wednesday is fairly simple: Cleveland is healthier than Toronto, they’re back in Cleveland playing in front of their home crowd, they’ve already played a game this series that was good enough to cover this number, and now they get a Game 5 where Toronto is still without Quickley. If Cleveland just plays a cleaner game on the offensive end and resembles their home-court team from earlier in the series, there’s a very legitimate path to hitting this spread on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 506. Cavaliers

The Dodgers have a solid case to cover the run line Wednesday because the pitching matchup is strong enough to create separation if Los Angeles gets even a normal offensive game. The listed starters are Tyler Glasnow for Los Angeles and Sandy Alcantara for Miami, and while Alcantara is still dangerous, Glasnow has been sharper so far at 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.70 WHIP, with 38 strikeouts entering the game. 

A big reason to like the Dodgers on the run line is the bounce-back angle after Tuesday’s 2-1 loss. Los Angeles got a strong outing from Shohei Ohtani but almost no offensive support, scoring just once despite seven hits. That kind of loss often sets up well for a favorite in the series finale, especially one that still has the better overall lineup and now hands the ball to another frontline arm in Glasnow.

Glasnow also gives Los Angeles the kind of swing-and-miss edge that can keep Miami from hanging around. Glasnow is near the top of the slate for April 29, and the available previews consistently place him among the strongest starters going Wednesday. If he controls the first six innings, the Dodgers only need a modest offensive rebound to get into multi-run-win territory.

There is also a practical lineup angle here. Tuesday’s loss came with Ohtani not in the batting order, something Dodgers coverage explicitly noted before Wednesday’s game. If Los Angeles gets closer to a normal offensive setup in the finale, that alone improves the chance of stretching a close lead into a two-run margin or better.

So the handicap is pretty simple: this is Miami, not the old “Florida Marlins,” and the case for Los Angeles is better starter, better overall team, and a natural bounce-back spot after wasting a quality outing Tuesday. If Glasnow pitches to form and the Dodgers’ bats wake up even a little, Los Angeles has a very reasonable path to winning by 2 runs or more on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 902. Dodgers -1.5 Runs 

Atlanta legitimately has a case to win here on Tuesday because we already saw the Hawks go toe-to-toe with New York in key moments throughout this series. It’s tied 2-2, and Atlanta won both games by one point. That tells you everything you need to know about whether or not the Hawks can execute down late — they already have against this team.

Yes, the Knicks are back home, but this series hasn’t exactly resembled your average 3-vs-6 affair.

What’s hurt New York throughout this series has been Atlanta’s perimeter pressure and guard play, and the Knicks still have yet to crack that code. Coverage of the series has largely centered around how New York got carved up at times defensively by Atlanta’s coverage schemes on Jalen Brunson. Traps. Ball-denial. Pushing him off the rhythm he likes to play his best basketball at. All of it came together for Atlanta at times to force Brunson into inefficient stretches and turnovers. Even reporting on the Knicks side said as much, pointing out Brunson is shooting just 37.2% through four games and how the Hawks defenders have made him work. If Atlanta can continue to force Brunson into giving up the ball, it gives the Hawks another opportunity to slow tempo down again.

Atlanta also enters this game possessing a legitimate confidence edge after we already saw them win in this building twice. Atlanta pushed New York throughout the entire series, and while Game 4 was a 114-98 Knicks win, New York was desperately searching for answers down 2-1 while facing elimination. Flip the script. We’re back at 2-2 in Game 5 now, and games like these often become about who’s more poised rather than who’s more talented. Atlanta proved it can win in crunch time against this Knicks team already.

Put simply: Atlanta’s best path to winning is what we’ve already seen for most of this series. Crowd Brunson, force New York’s offense to rely on one guy creating too much, and get another steady performance from their own backcourt late. If the Hawks can make this another close game in the fourth, they’ve already proven twice they can win the biggest possessions. And that’s why Atlanta is very much alive to win in New York on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 569. Hawks

The Lakers should cover as the spread is still providing value while LA continues to control this series. The Lakers winning this best-of-seven 3-0 with victories of 107-98, 101-94, and 112-108 in OT. The point spread matters because Los Angeles doesn’t need to win big to cash, just continue doing what it has done three times in a row already.

Taking the Lakers against the number works for me because they’ve been the more consistent team in late-game situations so far. Houston coughed up a six-point lead with 34.4 seconds remaining in Game 3 before eventually losing in OT, highlighting once again that the Rockets have struggled to close out games cleanly when the playoffs are on the line. Favorites that are laying more than four points should be trusted more than the public when they keep making boneheaded late mistakes like that.

The injury report plays into Los Angeles favor as well. Houston guard Kevin Durant is in doubt for Game 4 with a sprained left ankle, and he was reportedly still receiving treatment on Sunday morning and had not been cleared to play. Houston desperately needs KD to return for Game 4 because if he can’t go or is limited again, the Rockets lose one of their best half-court scorers and players to create shots late in the clock.

You can also make a vanilla matchup-and-form argument for the Lakers. Los Angeles went 53-29 during the regular season and has now beaten Houston in three consecutive games this season, doing so twice at home and once on the road. Once team proves it can consistently solve an opponent — particularly with LeBron James running the offense late in games — it becomes that much easier to back that team to keep games within a modest spread number.

Here’s how I see the handicap laying: The Lakers are 3-0 in this series already, Houston is only getting four and a half points, and the Rockets may once again be without Durant while feeling the pressure of possible elimination. Houston can beat the spread if they avoid elimination, but the Lakers have every opportunity to keep Game 4 close enough to cover.

Jim's Play: 557. Lakers

I like the Knicks as one my biggest plays of the NBA Postseason here on Saturday. For starters, this is now a desperation game for New York. The primary issue over their last two losses seemed to be random unexplainable mistakes, not systemic deficiencies. Plus, Game 3 was lost by one point, 109-108, after Game 2 was lost by one point, 107-106. Even though Atlanta leads the series 2-1, this has never felt like a series where the Hawks were just better than the Knicks. This felt like a series where New York continually failed to close out games when they had the chance.

First reason to trust the Knicks is rebounding/size. Something noted in the Game 3 preview was New York had a plus-14 rebounding margin in Game 2, and overall through two games the Knicks seemed to have the physical edge when focused. Rebounding matters on the road because extra possessions and second chances are one of the easiest ways to counteract a rowdy arena. If the Knicks get back to attacking that advantage they should have a clear path to setting the tempo and getting more efficient scoring opportunities.

Reason number two: Jalen Brunson. Despite blowing a lead in Game 3, the Knicks still have the best scorer in crunch time and a lot of criticism following Game 3 was about decision-making and play-calling rather than Atlanta figuring out a way to neutralize him. That’s huge because mistakes in execution tend to have better correctives game-to-game than matchup disadvantages do. If Brunson receives slightly better support from Karl-Anthony Towns and New York avoids playing stagnant down the stretch, they should have enough creation to steal one back in Atlanta.

Bonus reason: motivation. New York came into this series as the favorite but after Thursday’s game momentum is squarely against them with plenty of public analysis dubbing Game 4 as nearly a must-win. The Knicks favored here in Game 4 on the road? That should tell you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers view the Knicks versus Hawks series. They still believe New York is the better team despite Atlanta’s lead. When a team goes into a Game 4 with that kind of playoff-like pressure, they typically play with more urgency than the team that entered already knowing they needed a win.

Put it all together and here’s what you have: The Knicks are down 2-1 in a series where both of their losses were by one possession. They still have the advantage in size and they still have the most reliable closer in the series. New York cleans up their execution and plays with some desperation and they have every reason to trust they can win this game on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 545. Knicks

If you want the simplest case for Toronto to cover Thursday, look no further than Game 3 being bet a lot closer than Games 1 and 2. Cleveland is just a slight road favorite. This matters because you do not have to believe Toronto will beat Cleveland over the course of seven games; you just have to believe they will be close enough at home to stay inside one possession.

Venue and urgency are why this play is so intriguing. Cleveland dominated Games 1 and 2 at home by 13 and 10, respectively, but now the series shifts to Toronto down 0-2. Game 3 typically represents the spot of highest urgency for the team trailing in a series, and Cleveland’s own local coverage states that its role players will be leaned on more heavily on the road in Toronto. In a game where the spread is short, those changes can loom larger than the differences in raw talent.

Toronto actually has some underlying stats in its favor, too. Toronto scores 114.6 points per game, just 0.8 fewer than Cleveland allows; Toronto went 33-19 against Eastern Conference opponents; and Toronto went 7-4 in one-possession games. During their last 10 contests, the Raptors averaged 115.8 points scored while allowing 112.4, reinforcing that Toronto has played at a level over their last 10 where they could stay inside a small number.

Toronto might even have more wiggle room to improve upon their game plan than Cleveland does. Cleveland’s Big Three were superb in Game 2, as Donovan Mitchell posted a Game 2-high 30 points and Cleveland’s top nine effectively carried the load for this Cavs team. Cleveland’s bench, however, has struggled to contribute through two games. Cleveland’s local coverage highlighted the need for second unit production in a pivotal series Game 3. If Cleveland’s “bit players” do not perform on the road, expect Cleveland to struggle to clear the short spread in Toronto.

Even injuries could provide Toronto with a path to cover. According to the official NBA injury report, Immanuel Quickley and Ja’Kobe Walter are questionable for Toronto, while Thomas Bryant is questionable for Cleveland. Quickley would give Toronto even a modicum of guard creation, which would improve their half-court offense and late-game shotmaking should this game indeed be close.

If I were going gamecap on this myself, my angle would be similar: Toronto plays at home in a game of desperation in what should be a short number. At that number, they’re at least close enough to consider when you factor in how Toronto has played recently and Cleveland’s supporting cast has yet to prove it can produce on the road.

Jim's Play: 530. Raptors

My play on Thursday is on the Knicks to just win the game. We find ourselves in something of a prototypical bounce-back situation for New York. They squandered Game 2 at home, blowing a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter to fall 107-106, and series are generally tiltted 1-1. Most teams that lose Game 2 coming into Game 3 are just flat-out locked in, particularly when their loss had more to do with late execution than being outplayed for 48 minutes.

Beyond just the normal bounce-back spiel, there’s plenty of reason to like New York on the talent side of things as well. Most of the Game 2 preview coverage noted that the Knicks had a +14 rebounding margin in Game 2. When the Knicks play through their size advantage, they are typically the better team in this series. Couple that with New York simply doing a better job of capitalizing on those additional possessions and avoiding Monday night’s second-half carelessness, and the Knicks should be able to regain control of the series.

Extended coverage of Game 2 also strongly factors into me taking Knicks here as well. New York got too iso-heavy and failed to properly involve Karl-Anthony Towns in the game plan according to most, and Jalen Brunson cooling off offensively is a HUGE talking point heading into Game 3. Both of those things actually help the Knicks’ case for me a bit at the odds, because the solution to those problems are incredibly obvious: move the basketball, get Towns more touches, and let Brunson attack the defense one-on-one without the offense stagnating. If the Knicks clean those things up even a little bit, they should be able to score more efficiently than they did in Game 1.

They also just beat these Hawks in Atlanta fairly recently. Two weeks ago, the Knicks went into Atlanta and won 108-105, snapping the Hawks’ lengthy home winning streak. We know they can win in this building, now it’s just about not coughing up a game they led by double-digits.

All that to say, I like New York fairly easily in this spot. They’ve got reason to be pissed they let Game 2 slip away, they still have advantages on the court, and their offensive woes from Game 2 are easily correctable. If Brunson can find a rhythm early and the Knicks do a better job of feeding Towns and finishing plays, they should win Thursday night in Atlanta.

Jim's Play: 527. Knicks 

Phoenix can cover this huge number simply because the line itself has gotten gigantic. The Suns proved back on April 12 that they are capable of matching up with Oklahoma City, as they won 135-103 at OKC in the regular season finale. A number this high allows Phoenix plenty of space to cash without having to legitimately threaten covering the game.

The safest Suns cover theory might just be regression from Game 1. Oklahoma City exploded Phoenix 119-84, but a large chunk of that came on 19 Suns turnovers that led to 34 Thunder points. The Suns also only shot 34.9% from the field. Those are the sorts of numbers that swing a playoff game by several margins, and even slight improvements in taking care of the ball and making shots will open up this game considerably against a spread this high.

On top of this simple theory, there is some rotation help potentially coming Phoenix’s way. Grayson Allen went through drills Tuesday and was officially listed questionable, giving Suns fans hope that they may receive another shooter/secondary spacer for Game 2. Jordan Goodwin, Allen, and Mark Williams are all game time decisions. At the very least, it looks like Phoenix has a chance to play deeper than they did in Game 1 and even one or two additional playable players can help when you are counting on an underdog to keep it within 17 or 18 points.

Finally, there is game flow to consider. Often times blowout Game 2 favorites just have to see the game to protect control instead of winning by 20 again. Oklahoma City is still far and away the rightful favorite and, but that isn’t the same thing as covering this huge number. If the Suns take better care of the ball, get just a little more from Booker and Green, and do not experience another quarter where the game gets out of hand, there is a very legitimate path for Phoenix to stay within that number.

Jim's Play: 521. Suns 

Minnesota should be able to cash here for several reasons. First off, +6.5 is a reasonable spread, especially in a playoff game where Denver has already been shown to be beatable. 

Game 1 tells us the Timberwolves can keep this close, as they did for much of the first half. Much of the Game 2 preview and Game 1 coverage said the Wolves came out energized and flying around the court, getting up easy baskets and building a lead. Denver eventually took control of the game with a 17-2 run in the third quarter. For anyone wondering if Minnesota can keep Denver within six possessions, Game 1 shows they can do it when they set the tempo and play on the Nuggets’ terms.

Speaking of injuries, Denver is dealing with a few injuries of their own. Nuggets guard Peyton Watson as out with a hamstring injury. The same injuries report lists Anthony Edwards as a game-time decision for Minnesota. He is day to day with a knee injury. Updated injury reports for Game 2 mention both teams are monitoring one player, indicating Denver may not have a significant advantage. Minnesota has a better chance to cover if Edwards plays and is himself because he creates the majority of Minnesota’s offense and is their go-to option late in games.

If Edwards is out or not himself, the Timberwolves will have to gameplan differently, but they should still be able to cover. Game 2 previews noted how Minnesota hurt Denver by pushing the pace, but then allowed the game to slow down after the first quarter. Minnesota struggled to score and stopped rotating defensively with as much urgency as they did in the first quarter. The gameplan is simple for Minnesota: Just play like they did in Game 1’s first quarter for the remainder of Game 2. They do not need to play well to cover.

Minnesota has shown they can keep it close, they get a reasonably sized spread, and they know what they have to do to cash. As long as Edwards plays and Minnesota plays with more pace than they did after the first period of Game 1, the Timberwolves have a good chance to cover the spread Monday night.

Jim's Play: 505. TimberWolves 

Atlanta can legitimately cover Monday because the total number is still at a spot where it’s feasible in a playoff game. The Knicks opened as 5.5-point favorites for Game 2 in Madison Square Garden and metrics are not pricing this like a total blowout even with New York holding a 1-0 series lead.

Atlanta is worth playing against the spread because they’ve already proven they can give New York trouble on offense in Game 1. The Knicks wound up winning 113-102, but storylines coming out of the game detailed how Atlanta’s small-small pick-and-roll combinations gave New York fits before the Knicks found a solution to slow it down after halftime. This is valuable for a spread wager because playoff series become about counters, and Atlanta has a good understanding of what worked for them and what they’ll need to revisit in Game 2.

Atlanta also proved they can generate enough offense to keep games close with CJ McCollum scoring 26 points in the opener while Atlanta was competitive for most of the game before the Knicks pulled away. Having a perimeter scoring option like McCollum is helpful when you’re an underdog because you don’t need to win the game outright to cover, you just need to avoid giving yourself too big of a hole to climb out of.

Both teams’ injury reports add more fuel to this fire. Onyeka Okongwu is a game-time decision for Atlanta while OG Anunoby is also a game-time decision for New York. If Okongwu is able to play that gives the Hawks more depth inside to help with rebounding, and any sort of limitation for Anunoby weakens one of the Knicks’ biggest defensive strengths.

Last but not least, Atlanta has recent evidence that they can keep this game close. The Knicks previously beat Atlanta earlier this month by only 108-105, which lines up with the theory that this can be a close game regardless of who wins outright. Throw all that information together and you have a logical recipe for betting Atlanta: workable spread number, offensive counters they can utilize after picking up on them in Game 1, and enough offensive firepower to hang around for long stretches. All the signs point to Atlanta covering the spread on Monday against the Knicks.

Jim's Play: 503. Hawks

Toronto covers Monday because the spread still affords the Raptors plenty of cushion in what should be a tighter Game 2 than Game 1. Cleveland opened as a -8.5 favorite before settling at -9.5. 

It also makes sense from a bounce-back premise after Toronto’s 126-113 loss on Saturday. That final score might as well have been 13 because Cleveland entered the fourth quarter with a lead of 100-76. This implied Toronto spent Game 1 missing shots while Cleveland caught fire from deep (the Cavs went 16-for-32 on three-pointers). Toronto did score 24 points from RJ Barrett, 21 points from Scottie Barnes, and 17 points apiece from Brandon Ingram and Jamal Shead. Granted, seven Raptors reached double-figures, but they had enough offense to keep pace with Cleveland had they not had lapses on defense their coach highlighted after the game.

Immanuel Quickley’s availability is another key factor in Toronto’s favor on the spread. He missed Game 1 with a strained hamstring, but currently list as game-time decision for Monday. He was expected to miss multiple games before being deemed active for just Game 1. Toronto probably would not roll him 100 percent if he is available, but having any real chance to activate him means the Raptors should be able to stabilize their guard play, pace, and half-court offense.

Toronto has enough playmakers to make adjustments in a playoff game too. Toronto finished with a 46-36 record while Cleveland went 52-30. Toronto’s resume was not bad enough to run away from this spot, but they do have Barnes, Barrett, and Ingram to prevent Cleveland from pulling away on the Raptors again.

Toronto covering the spread is your 1st Round Game of the Year because the Raptors can improve from Game 1, figure to have more rotation depth if Quickley can play, and the betting line has moved towards Cleveland enough to where you can trust the dog. If Toronto defends three-point shooting better and prevents Cleveland from heating up like they did in Game 1, they will have a great opportunity to keep it closer than expected Monday night.

Jim's Play: 501. Raptors (NBA 1st Round Game of the Year)

Detroit projects as an above-average team across the board, but you can still find value on the Pistons to cover considering how high this number has gone. Right now, Detroit is laying about 8.5 points, and games with spreads that large can get exposed if the underdog can slow things down and force a half-court game.

Offense should be able to flow through Cade Cunningham. Detroit scored 117.8 points per game this season compared to Orlando’s 115.7, but the Pistons also had a clear advantage in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Detroit having edges in so many statistical categories shows they have multiple avenues to create separation, even if their shooting isn’t falling at an ideal rate.

Home court advantage is another big piece of the puzzle. Detroit went 60-22 on the year and 31-9 at home while Orlando went 19-20 on the road. 

Detroit even has a recent form edge. The Pistons won 12 of their last 15 games to take the East’s No. 1 seed. That shows Detroit was playing well into the regular season rather than tuning up for the playoffs. When a No. 1 seed is playing that well heading into the playoffs and has home-court advantage in Game 1, they’re easier to bet on to cover.

Just keep an eye on injury reports. Detroit’s game preview currently lists Jalen Duren as day to day with a knee contusion, and his availability could become relevant on the boards and in the paint. If Cunningham is firing and Detroit gets solid defensive looks at home, there’s a clear path for the Pistons to cover Sunday against Orlando.

The Lakers have value to cover and possibly win outright because this spread is being influenced by health and playoff experience just as much as seed line. Los Angeles hosts Game 1 and the Rockets opened as favorites, but Houston lists Kevin Durant as questionable to play after nursing a knee injury during the week. Steven Adams is also officially ruled out for the season.

Why does that matter? Because if Durant is compromised in any way, Houston loses a significant portion of its half-court offense and late-clock scoring options.

LeBron James remains the biggest reason to bet on the Lakers, though, due to playoff experience. James is still producing like an elite player at age 41. He’s averaging 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists this season. This matchup is getting billed as another big LeBron stage in the postseason.

In a tight spread game, playoff experience can go a long way because the Lakers simply need LeBron to keep things close late. They don’t need to dominate for a cover to hit. They just need LeBron to prevent Houston from running away with this game, thus keeping Los Angeles in it down the stretch.

Los Angeles also has some motivation and urgency to steal this game outright. This a true marquee matchup and shows the Lakers have plenty of injuries to lick wounds against their own talented roster with Luka Doncic ruled out and Austin Reaves questionable. If too many people think L.A. can’t hang with a healthy Rockets squad because of injuries, then the number naturally creeps higher than it should be against LeBron and the Lakers.

We could see value on Los Angeles if the line gets pushed because of injury news and public betting overwhelms toward Houston’s talent level. Home underdogs in the playoffs with an elite closer tend to become dangerous bets because basketball slows down on a possession-by-possession basis.

Houston isn’t traveling to Los Angeles completely healthy, either. Fred VanVleet will miss this game, so if Durant isn’t at full strength we could see Houston turn to players like Josh Giddey and others to create offense. That’s when the Lakers can make a game ugly and stick with the Rockets for four quarters.

Expect L.A. to attempt to slow down the game’s tempo and force Houston to play in the mud. They have the players and size to make Houston work for buckets and limit transition scoring opportunities. If those scenarios occur, then the Lakers can keep this close and an outright win becomes in the cards.

In summary, the Lakers have home floor, LeBron’s playoff experience, a line that could get inflated too far against them because of injuries, and a Rockets team that has its own questions surrounding availability. 

Jim's Play: 584. Lakers

Atlanta also has strong value to cover the spread in Game 1. The number asks the Hawks to keep it within 5.5 points; it does not require them to win outright. Atlanta was a good road team all year at 22-19, and while New York was excellent at home at 30-10, Atlanta still finished with a great 46-36 record, tied with Toronto. 

Atlanta can stay inside the number because of their offensive profile. Atlanta averaged 118.5 points per game while New York scored 116.5 ppg. Atlanta also averaged 30.1 assists per game to the Knicks’ 27.4. That assists number matters in a spread bet because teams that can score and move the ball typically have a better chance to keep games close, even if the favorite plays well enough to control stretches.

Atlanta also has recent evidence that they can match up with New York. The Hawks and Knicks just played on April 6 and the Knicks won that game by only 108-105. This spread would’ve been covered. That game from two weeks ago acts as a useful guide here because it shows Atlanta can keep this matchup close, within one possession against the Knicks, before the playoff adjustment even kicks in.

There is also a mild situational factor in Atlanta’s corner. New York closed the regular season with a 110-96 home loss to Charlotte while Atlanta’s last two meaningful games were a 124-102 win over Cleveland followed by the loss at Miami in the finale. The Knicks are absolutely still the better team and the deserved favorite. However, New York is not coming in at full strength here and that late-season stumble feels like it could prevent them from coming out as strong as they could in Game 1.

The biggest concern for Atlanta here is health and depth. Backup center Jock Landale will be out for Atlanta with an ankle injury. Atlanta loses some frontcourt depth there, but the spread value still works even with Landale sidelined. Atlanta has the offensive firepower to keep up with New York and recent proof that they can compete with them. If the Hawks shoot reasonably well and don’t get absolutely destroyed on the glass, they have a path to cover +5.5 on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 581. Hawks

Let’s start with why Orlando actually has a legitimate shot to win outright Wednesday night. The value shifts significantly when Joel Embiid is ruled out for Philadelphia. Embiid is Philly’s best interior scorer, rebounder, and rim protector, so multiple previews highlighted the center matchup as a weakness for Philly, as they will have to rely on Andre Drummond and Adem Bona to keep up with Orlando’s frontcourt talent. This shift becomes glaring when you consider Orlando is built around larger wings and forwards like Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bane.

Orlando also sports the type of roster that should make life difficult for Philadelphia’s guards. The Magic operate as one of the bigger teams in the league while also boasting strong perimeter defense as part of its identity. Multiple betting previews noted the Magic’s defense presents issues for Philadelphia, especially if Tyrese Maxey can’t fully stay on top of his finger tendon injury while Embiid sits. If Orlando can keep Maxey grounded, it really does even the playing field in what would otherwise be a typical road play-in favorite scenario.

Don’t overlook the talent side of things with Orlando, either. Simply put, Orlando boasts three potential star scorers with Banchero, Wagner, and Bane. Coverage targeting Philadelphia mentioned the trio as “dangerous” and noted how any of those three are capable of exploding for 30-plus points. In a play-in game, shot creation will be paramount, and Orlando having multiple players that defenses fear is a net positive.

Throw in that Orlando was riding four straight wins just a week ago when they dropped 53.7% from the field and 41.4% from three against Minnesota, and there’s some recent form backing up this upset and cover argument as well. The Magic posted up a nearly identical 45-37 record to Philly’s, so we’re not talking about some massive discrepancy game on paper. This one should be close based solely on records, and that was reflected in the opening line with Orlando as a slight underdog around +2.

Putting it all together, I really like Orlando’s best-case game script: attack Philly with size in the post, create good offense through Banchero and Wagner, and force an undermanned Sixers team to play from behind without Embiid controlling the paint. If that happens, the Magic have every chance in the world to pull off the outright win. 

Jim's Play: 561. Magic (Play-In Game of the Year)

Miami can cover this play-in game against No 9 seeded Charlotte as the Heat have more postseason experience heading into this win-or-go-home scenario, and they’re coming off a strong finish to the regular season. Miami clinched the No. 10 spot with a victory on Sunday, defeating Atlanta 143-117 behind Bam Adebayo’s 25 points, Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s 26, and the return of Norman Powell, who added 25 points of his own. Find that kind of offensive flow and confidence heading into a play-in game and it definitely pays dividends in a game where efficiency and calm usually play such large roles.

Speaking of Charlotte, there’s also an argument to be made that the market is a little too bullish on the Hornets. While Charlotte did clinch the No. 9 seed and home court advantage with a 110-96 victory over New York on Sunday night, that was against a Knicks team that sat several key rotation players. The Knicks were protecting their playoff rotation, not exactly playing full strength and coming at Charlotte with high-intensity pressure. Both teams were really close in the regular-season win column too, with Charlotte finishing 44-38 and Miami right behind at 43-39.

Plus, Miami just has the roster construction to keep an elimination game competitive on the road. Adebayo allows the Heat to play with a steady interior presence on both sides of the court, and Powell getting healthy at the right time adds another bucket-getter to Miami’s arsenal. Tyler Herro and Davion Mitchell returned for Miami’s finale too, which means the Heat brings added creation and backcourt solidity into Tuesday’s game. When it comes down to one game, those veteran shooters and a strong defensive foundation should be enough to keep Miami within the number, even in the event of a Charlotte win.

Charlotte may even keep things close regardless, as the historical matchup numbers favor Miami covering here. Miami owns 10 of the last 12 against Charlotte, and that number had the Hornets as a 5.5-point home favorite. That implies Miami can keep the ticket alive by simply keeping it close, and combined with the play-in desperation factor, strong finish to the season, and complementary veteran core players, Miami has a good recipe for doing just that.

Jim's Play: 565. Heat

Denver has a strong case to cover at home because the Nuggets still have something meaningful to play for, while Oklahoma City has already locked up the West’s top seed and best overall regular-season record. Denver enters Friday on a 10-game winning streak and is still battling to secure the No. 3 seed, so the urgency is clearly on the Nuggets’ side. Oklahoma City, by contrast, has already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, which changes the motivation and rotation outlook for this spot.

The availability angle is the biggest reason to like Denver against the number. Reports for Friday list Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, along with several other key Thunder contributors, including Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Jaylin Williams. Other reporting also says Oklahoma City is expected to sit major pieces such as Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. That is a lot of top-end creation, defense, and depth missing from one side, especially against a Denver team that has been rolling offensively.

There is also a form edge working for Denver. The Nuggets just beat Memphis for their 10th straight win, and that stretch has included strong play from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, with Denver continuing to look sharp on the offensive end. Denver improved to 52-28 with that win, showing how locked in the Nuggets are heading into the final weekend of the regular season. If Denver approaches this with normal urgency, the combination of current form and home floor makes them the more trustworthy side.

Jim's Play: 520. Nuggets

Michigan opened as a 6.5-point favorite and has climbed to 7.5 at some books for Monday night’s title game at Lucas Oil Stadium, but the Huskies have battled to get here at 34-5, they have won six national championships since 1999, and this group is 6-0 all-time in championship games. 

The strongest argument for UConn vs. the spread might just be the fact that this team has already shown it can win tough games as an underdog in this tournament. The Huskies were underdogs once again after pulling off wins against top-seeded Duke and then Illinois to reach the championship game, and AP’s coverage of UConn’s journey referred to the Huskies run as “another Final Four underdog surge” for a program hoping to win its third title in four years. Point is, covering 6.5 or 7.5 doesn’t mean UConn has to dominate Michigan; it just has to hang tight, keep things close, and make sure this game stays within a few possessions. That’s exactly what this team did two other times in March.

Offensively, UConn has guards who can match Michigan guard Hunter Dickinson bucket-for-bucket. Connecticut also has the defensive profile needed to attack Michigan’s chief strength. The Wolverines have been outstanding in transition throughout this tournament and have scored at least 90 points in every NCAA tournament game, but everything I read about this matchup said UConn’s size, defensive toughness, deliberate offensive attack and strong guard play can keep this game slowed down. One scouting report I found broke down the matchups and actually gave UConn the edge on the backcourt while highlighting Michigan’s turnover problems as a place where the Huskies could steal possessions.

Lastly, there’s health uncertainty on both sides that pushes me toward the underdog. UConn guard Solo Ball suffered a foot sprain against Illinois and is also dealing with Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg dealing with leg soreness. Could two leg injuries fuel a rivalry rematch come Monday night? Probably not. If both teams struggle to get their stars going at full health, that typically shrinks a favorite because depth and easy buckets become more important. 

Ideal scenario for a UConn cover: Huskies utilize Tarris Reed Jr., Alex Karaban and their experienced guards to make this a physical game, keep Michigan out of easy buckets in transition and turn this into a half-court, possession-by-possession battle after halftime. Give Michigan enough credit to win this game; they’re the better team. But requiring the Wolverines to win by seven or more points against a battle-tested Connecticut squad with this much experience in these situations is a tall task. 

Jim's Play: 701. U Conn

Tulsa has the look of a quality spread side because the number feels a little too big for how this matchup shapes up. Auburn is laying about a 5-to-5.5-points in Sunday’s NIT Championship, so Tulsa does not need to win to cover. Against a visiting team on a neutral floor in a title game where both squads have played well lately, that is enough cushion for the Golden Hurricane to keep their wagering action inside the number.

Above all else, Tulsa has impressed how stable they have played all tournament. Tulsa is 30-7 overall and knocked off New Mexico 74-69 in the semifinals behind five players scoring in double figures and never trailing after halftime. Tulsa hitting five guys in double figures is notable against Auburn because it makes them harder to shut down defensively, and limits the Tigers chances of flustering the Golden Hurricane when they get going.

Tulsa has underlying stats to back up their place in this game as well. A matchup preview published before either semifinal pointed out Tulsa’s No. 55 overall efficiency with a top-40 offense to Auburn’s No. 37 efficiency ranking overall, before highlighting Tulsa’s 5-2 ATS record on neutral courts this season. Those stats support Tulsa being close enough in talent to avoid getting blown out, particularly on this neutral floor where possessions have a bit more gravity.

Lastly, there’s likely regression against Auburn’s score from their semifinal performance. Auburn torched Illinois State 88-66, but the Tigers shot 60.7% from the field and 57.1% from three-point range. They obviously do not need to replicate that offensive output to cover the spread, but if Auburn cools down at all from beyond the arc it suddenly becomes difficult to cover more than two possessions.

My play is Tulsa +5.5. Tulsa is balanced, experienced playing in these sorts of games this year, and talented enough on offense to keep pace with Auburn for the full 40 minutes. 

Jim's Play: 655. Tulsa

It's the final of the Crown Tounament from Las Vegas, NV as Oklahoma faces off against West Virginia.  West Virginia is a solid spread play because the number is short enough to keep the Mountaineers live all night. Oklahoma is sitting around a 3.5-point favorite, with the total in the 136.5 to 137.5 range, which points to a fairly competitive title game rather than a spot where the favorite is expected to run away and hide. In a lower-total game like that, every possession matters more, which naturally helps the underdog’s cover chances.

The biggest reason to like West Virginia against the spread is how well it is playing right now. The Mountaineers just hammered Creighton 87-70 in the semifinals, and that was not a fluky result. West Virginia shot 53%, hit 12 threes, and got a big game from DJ Thomas, showing it has more offensive upside than its season-long profile might suggest. A team coming off that kind of confident, balanced win is dangerous getting points in a neutral-floor final.

There is also a matchup angle working in West Virginia’s favor. Oklahoma averages 82.9 points per game and leans heavily on perimeter shooting, while West Virginia’s best path is to pressure the ball, contest those outside looks, and turn this into a more physical, half-court game. Oklahoma makes 9.7 threes per game, while West Virginia allows 7.3 made threes per game, so if the Mountaineers can keep that gap from widening, they are in position to stay inside the number.

West Virginia also has enough offense to answer when Oklahoma makes a run. The Mountaineers score 70.1 points per game and outscore opponents by 4.8 points per game, while Oklahoma allows 77.1 points per game. That matters because West Virginia does not need to dominate this matchup. It just needs to avoid long scoring droughts and keep the game within one or two possessions, which is very realistic against a defense that has been vulnerable enough to give up points.

The simplest case for the bet is that this game is priced much closer to a toss-up than the team names alone might suggest. West Virginia has a very real shot to either win outright or at least keep it close enough to cover +3.5. That makes the Mountaineers the more attractive side in a championship game.

Jim's Play: 654. West Virginia

Michigan is the right side to win and cover because this is basically a coin-flip heavyweight matchup, yet the Wolverines are the team laying the short number at -1.5, which tells you the market sees them as slightly better on this floor. Tipoff is 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday, April 4, at Lucas Oil Stadium, and both teams arrive as No. 1 seeds, with Michigan at 35-3 and Arizona at 36-2.

The biggest reason to trust Michigan is the balance between elite defense and a tournament offense that has been exploding. Michigan is the nation’s top-ranked defense with the No. 5 offense, while Arizona comes in with the No. 2 defense and No. 4 offense, so there is not much separation overall. The difference is that Michigan has looked more overwhelming in this tournament run, including a 95-62 blowout of Tennessee in the Elite Eight, the Wolverines became the first team to win four NCAA Tournament games by double digits while scoring at least 90 points in each. That kind of current form matters when you only need them to cover a basket or less.

Michigan also has the best recent momentum of the two teams. Against Tennessee, Yaxel Lendeborg scored 27 points, Elliot Cadeau handed out 10 assists, and AP highlighted Michigan’s deep, unselfish style and transition attack. Arizona was impressive in beating Purdue, but its path looked more dependent on a second-half rally after trailing by seven at halftime. Michigan has been the team dictating games from the jump, and that is exactly what you want when backing a favorite to cover a short spread.

There is also a clear matchup path for Michigan: make Arizona play from the perimeter. Arizona relies heavily on interior play, physicality, and an elite free-throw rate, while Michigan’s edge may come from perimeter shooting, where the Wolverines have hit 44.6% from three in the tournament. If Michigan keeps spacing the floor and forces Arizona to chase shooters instead of controlling the paint, the Wolverines have the cleaner route to offensive separation.

This feels like a game Michigan wins by at least four points, which would be enough to both advance and cover.

Jim's Play: 651. Michigan

Illinois has a legit case as the favorite to win this game, because they’re not entering the Final Four as some stunned baby faced killer. The Illini are 28-8 overall, they just manhandled Iowa 71-59 in the regional final, and  dominated Iowa on the glass, winning the rebounding battle 38-21 on the way to 16 offensive rebounds. That’s important against UConn because they have the size and toughness to prevent this game from becoming an easy half-court affair for the Huskies.

Illinois frontcourt play is the biggest reason to like them here. The Illini’s international trio of Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic and David Mirkovic, but the part that jumped out at me was how the piece described the roster’s unity and versatility being reasons for this run.

When playing a team like UConn, that length gives Illinois a chance to compete with Tarris Reed Jr. in the paint, limit second chances, and make the Huskies work in a way they haven’t for large portions of some earlier tournament games. If Illinois can hold its own on the glass, they’ve absolutely got a shot to win this thing late.

Speaking of which, there’s also momentum to consider for Illinois. UConn needed a Braylon Mullins miracle winner from 35 feet to survive Duke, and they trailed by 19 points in the first half. Nothing about that comeback was easy, but it also exposed the Huskies as a team that can get picked on for long stretches and get punched way back during games against top competition. Illinois is good enough and physical enough to punish UConn if they start sloppily or have another inefficient stretch.

Illinois also boasts enough shot-making to excel in a national semifinal. Keaton Wagler had 25 against Iowa, Andrej Stojakovic had 17, and we saw that Illinois doesn’t necessarily need one guy to create everything. That balance is key against UConn because it forces opposing defenses to gameplan for everybody on Illinois’ roster for 40 minutes. If Illinois gets consistent guard play and forces this into a possession-by-possession battle, their depth and rebounding prowess will give them chances to break UConn.

The easiest path to winning script here is pretty simple: Illinois dominates the glass, keeps UConn from living on offensive rebounds, and plays enough good perimeter defense to avoid lengthy scoring droughts. Obviously UConn is going to get a lot of love after what they did against Duke, but the Illini have too much size, balance, and recent success on the glass to lay down ahead of time. That’s why you can make a case Illinois are live to win outright in the Final Four.

Jim's Play: 649. Illinois

Creighton wins this outright, for what it’s worth. The easiest thing to understand here is this game is essentially being run as a pick ’em. West Virginia opens as a tiny favorite around 1 or 1.5 points, with Creighton right at even money on the moneyline. If a game gets lined that close to even on a neutral floor in Vegas, you’re not betting on an upset. You’re betting that Creighton is just slightly better for 40 minutes, and the odds say that outcome is very much within reach.

Three-point shooting, specifically, is the best reason to like Creighton in this game. The Bluejays make 9.8 threes per game, which is 2.5 more than West Virginia allows on average. That’s a legitimate advantage in a game that should be played under a total around 134.5, because a few extra shots from deep can shift momentum and/or the scoreboard in a low-to-mid total semifinal.

Creighton also had the more definitive quarterfinal showing. Creighton defeated Rutgers 82-69 with a second-half run cemented Greg McDermott’s squad’s spot in the semifinals. West Virginia got through as well, but it needed overtime to defeat Stanford 82-77. That seems like a game that took more out of the Mountaineers than Creighton’s win over Rutgers did. In a quick tournament turnaround, that can absolutely count for something.

Shot-making and controlling flow is another way Creighton can win this game. West Virginia’s own preview stated the main challenge for this team would be slowing down Creighton’s three-point shooting and acknowledged that the Mountaineers tend to struggle as opponents hit 35% from three-point range or higher. If Creighton knocks down those open looks early and forces West Virginia to play from behind, the Bluejays’ offensive profile is problematic enough that it can push WVU out of structure.

The point here is that Creighton, on paper, should be just about good enough to win a one-possession game. The Bluejays also have the slight perimeter advantage and won their quarterfinal game in straighter fashion than West Virginia did. Hit enough three-pointers, prevent West Virginia from running the game away with defense and free throws, and Creighton can come out victorious. 

Jim's Play: 648. Creigton

Creighton is appealing to me as a spread play against Rutgers Thursday, April 2 in the Crown Tournament. from Las Vegas, NV.  This game doesn’t necessarily play perfectly according to spreadsheet and stats, but enough things line up that I think Creighton can win easily against an underwhelming Scarlet Knights team. The line opened with Creighton around -4.5, which means that they do not have to run Rutgers off the court to cash. Simply playing a controlled game should get the job done, especially considering this is on a neutral floor against a Rutgers team that went 14-19 overall and was horrific away from home at 2-9.

Creighton was much more consistent at home (10-6) this season and enters this game as a hefty betting favorite for those reasons. Rutgers has had difficulty sustaining consistent offense all season long. They have talent, but their overall body of work shows a team that hasn’t been able to put it all together for long stretches of time. That makes them dangerous in any game because an off night could easily derail a tournament run, but inconsistent teams are difficult to trust against Creighton.

Motivation is also an interesting angle here. This is Greg McDermott’s last season with Creighton before he steps down. The players know this and I would assume they want to send him out with a strong postseason run. In a “second season” tournament like the Crown motivation is often the difference maker between matchups and Creighton should have all the motivation in the world to keep McDermott coaching.

On paper Creighton also has enough offensive balance to win this game. The Bluejays scored 75.1 points per game with a variety of players contributing. Josh Dix is the team’s best scorer while Nik Graves was their lead playmaker. Offensively, they are not a great team, but they can put enough pressure on Rutgers if they shoot around average from the perimeter and take care of the basketball. Live-ball turnovers were a problem for Creighton at times this season, but they forced problems for opponents all year long. Give Creighton some leeway on offense and they should be able to control the pace of this game and force Rutgers to play catch-up.

Lastly, just look at the spread itself. When I first looked at the game Creighton was anywhere from a 3.5 to 4.5 favorite. Basically, the market is saying that Creighton is better than Rutgers by more than one full possession on a neutral floor. I don’t think that number is inflated at all and gives Creighton plenty of room to cover the spread without dominating Rutgers. 

There are a lot of reasons to like Creighton in this spot. They should be the steadier team on both ends, have a clear motivation boost, and this just feels like a game where they should be able to wear Rutgers down.

Jim's Play: 898. Creighton (Crown Tourney Game of the Year)

Stanford is a good play to win and cover against West Virginia in the Crown Tournament on Thursday because this looks like a matchup where the Cardinal’s offensive ceiling gives them the edge in a game lined close to a single possession. The current market has Stanford favored by about 1 to 1.5 points, so they do not need to dominate to cash, just win a competitive game by one clean late possession. The quarterfinal is set for Thursday, April 2 at 8 p.m. ET in Las Vegas.

The biggest case for Stanford is that its offense is simply more dependable. Stanford averaged 76.0 points per game this season, while West Virginia averaged just 69.2. The ESPN team comparison also shows Stanford scoring nearly seven points more per game, and that matters in a spread this short because the Cardinal have more ways to create separation if the game gets into the 70s. West Virginia has been the better pure defensive team, but when you are laying only around a point, the side with the more proven scoring punch is attractive.

Stanford also has the best go-to scorer on the floor in Ebuka Okorie. He led the Cardinal at 22.8 points per game and 3.5 assists, giving Stanford the kind of shot creator who can settle things down late in the clock and manufacture offense when tournament possessions tighten up. In a near pick’em type game, having the top perimeter creator is often the difference between surviving and getting knocked out, and Stanford has that advantage here.

Another reason to like Stanford is style. The Cardinal shot 35.6% from three and made 9.2 threes per game, while West Virginia has been more limited offensively overall and finished the year as one of the lower-scoring major conference teams. If Stanford gets even an average shooting night from the perimeter, West Virginia may have trouble matching that kind of pace because the Mountaineers have leaned much more on defense than on explosive offense all season.

West Virginia can absolutely keep it close with its defense, but the spread reflects that already. With Stanford favored by only around 1 to 1.5, you are basically asking the Cardinal to be the better late-game execution team, and their stronger scoring profile, better top-end shot maker, and slightly higher offensive versatility make that the more likely outcome. This feels like a game Stanford controls just enough in the second half and should win by at least five points. 

Jim's Play: 895. Stanford

Minnesota opens as a live dog and solid play against the spread because the number is short. Baylor opens as a 3.5-point favorite and they do not need to win this game outright. The Gophers simply need to keep this game within one possession late to cover and that certainly feels attainable here.

Minnesota against the spread starts with Baylor’s defense, or lack thereof. Baylor putting up over 82 points per game but only ranked 268th in the country in scoring defense at over 77 points allowed per game. That style of profile often leads to favorites being upset in March Madness because they give up so many opportunities for opponents to stick around for the full 40 minutes, even if they’re putting points on the board.

Fox also highlighted how Baylor failed to defeat a single NCAA Tournament team all season long. Admittedly, head-to-head results are not the end-all, be-all, but it does factor into how Minnesota covers the spread here because it shows the Bears struggled when they had to elevate their games. It will be a postseason game on a neutral court, so laying points with a Baylor team that struggled against good teams all year feels like a risky play. Minnesota does not have to outplay Baylor to cover the spread. They simply need to be good enough to exploit the Bears’ defensive struggles and hit on their fair share of opportunities.

Minnesota keeping Baylor under 70 points feels like the cleanest path to covering the spread. It will force Baylor to defend in the half court, allowing the Gophers to dictate the pace of play late. Baylor can score with anyone, but they also have the defense that Minnesota can attack over and over again. That’s why I like Minnesota +3.5 here tonight. 

Jim's Play: 894. Minnesota 

A couple angles are jumping out at me already: Duke is laying 5-5.5 points, and BOTH TEAMS have point guard health concerns going into a game that won’t likely be decided by much if the spread holds. 

Connecticut is a live play to cover primarily because this game feels like more of a grinder than a blowout is possible. Right off the bat, the biggest reason to like UConn against the number is experience, balance and simple tournament know-how. The Huskies are 32-5 on the year, just defeated Michigan State to get to the Elite Eight and have combined to go 16-1 in NCAA Tournament games over the last four seasons. That resume matters in this spot against a Duke team that had to battle St. John’s down the stretch to escape with a 80-75 victory.

Add in the fact that UConn has enough frontcourt weaponry to keep this game close for 40 minutes, too. Tarris Reed Jr. has been phenomenal for UConn in the tournament so far, and the combination of Reed and Alex Karaban gives the Huskies enough size, rebounding and interior scoring potential to not get bullied on the inside by Cameron Boozer and Duke’s overall length. As long as Reed continues to produce at an efficient rate inside, UConn doesn’t need to knock down shots to keep things within reach of the number.

Depth and health for Duke’s backcourt are also reasons to believe that UConn can at least keep this game close. The Blue Devils got an emotional boost from Caleb Foster’s return against St. John’s, but it’s unclear how effective Foster will be and/or how he’ll hold up over the course of 40 minutes fresh off a foot fracture. Both teams have point guard health concerns coming into this game, but if either guy has an “off” night or struggles with ball security a little, it actually helps the underdog have a chance to cover in games like these, even if Duke gets past Connecticut.

There’s even a stylistic angle to like with UConn, too. UConn’s deeper, more experienced roster along with Duke’s iffy three-point shooting in tournament play so far. If Duke struggles from distance again, UConn can afford to pack the lane, force Boozer to earn tough two pointers and turn this game into a possession-by-possession battle instead of opening the floor up for Duke to create real separation.

Again, Connecticut can win this outright, but the easiest way I see the Huskies covering the spread is by doing just enough on the boards, preventing Boozer from getting going entirely and relying on solid guard play from Malachi Smith and their veteran guards. 

I'll take the points with U Conn here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 633. U Conn

I look for Purdue to cover the spread against Arizona in the Elite 8 on Saturday, March 28, 2026 based on this number being high enough where the Boilermakers’ advantages in experience and offensive structure keep this one close. Current lines have Arizona favored by 5.5 points to 6.5 points with Purdue coming in at 30-8 while Arizona comes in at 35-2.

Experience is the first category to like about Purdue taking this number. This is freshman-fueled Arizona team going against Purdue led by seniors and with a game this late in the NCAA Tournament that experience matters. Purdue’s starting lineup has been here before while Tommy Lloyd explicitly called out Purdue’s combination of experience and offensive structure, referencing the trio of seniors starters who helped Purdue win a title last season. In a winner-take-all game where every possession counts, having veterans helps navigate through tough stretches.

Speaking of Purdue’s offense, the Boilermakers boast an attack that keeps many underdogs in games. Purdue has one of the most potent attacks in the country, averaging 82.1 points per game while shooting better than 50% from the floor, and their offensive prowess runs through Braden Smith, who recently set the NCAA career assists record. Having a veteran point guard who can run the pace and create high percentage looks makes it difficult for favorites to separate.

Staying with Purdue, they are also quite tough to score against, which should come in handy against Arizona’s pressure defense. Purdue survived Texas on Trey Kaufman-Renn’s tip-in with 0.7 seconds remaining, committing only four turnovers in the process which tied an NCAA Tournament program record. Taking care of the ball like that against an Arizona team that thrives on getting extra possessions through steals and transition buckets will allow the Boilermakers to dictate the pace of play.

Lastly, it’s easy enough to see a path to Purdue staying under the number if they fall behind Arizona. After all, Arizona demolished Arkansas 109-88 to improve to 12 games over .500 while Purdue survived a barnburner against Texas. Arizona should be favored, but this number could open up too high based on both of those games. Purdue has the tools to slow this game down and keep it closer than Arizona’s game against Arkansas was, making living with Arizona for multiple possessions a worthwhile endeavor if betting against the number.

Betting on Purdue simply rests on them keeping pace with Arizona’s scoring. If Braden Smith dictates tempo, Kaufman-Renn can provide enough points inside to keep Arizona from going crazy on the offensive glass, and Purdue’s veterans remember how to win close games in March, the Boilermakers can cover this spread. Arizona could still win this game, but Purdue looks to have all the tools it needs to keep this within one-possession to two-possession range.

Jim's Play : 631. Purdue 

You can certainly make the case that UConn will win Friday and cover against Michigan State on March 27 because, well, this is being setup as a very close game and hence UConn’s advantages on paper are that much more valuable. 

As far as winning the outright game goes, let’s start with momentum. UConn’s path to the Sweet 16 included wins over Furman and then UCLA 73-57. Forward Alex Karaban scored a career-high 27 points against UCLA and added 10 points and 13 rebounds from Tarris Reed Jr. Reuters highlighted UConn taking over defensively in the second half, which should align well with a low-scoring game on a neutral floor.

Pick your reason, but depth and frontcourt dominance feel like viable paths to cashing as well. UConn’s depth is its biggest strength while questioning Michigan State’s ability to take care of the basketball and defend the three-point line. Again, against a spread this close if UConn dominates the paint and gets better looks from the perimeter it does not need to blow Michigan State out.

Lastly, just consider the resumes surrounding Dan Hurley and his core players. More extensive coverage continues harping on how the Huskies still have that same aura they did when winning the championship two seasons ago. Tough game-winners will be required either way, but when games are this close on the NCAA slate proven veterans can be the difference.

Michigan State is better than you think they should be at this point in the season and Tom Izzo has proven he can coach up in March. Jeremy Fears Jr. and Coen Carr are more than capable of winning this game down in Washington. But edge after edge UConn keeps creeping up and the total simply not being high enough to bank on Michigan State making enough shots to cover.

Jim's Play: 624. Connecticut

Unlike most games with a 1-vs-5 seeding, this game does not project to feature an extremely dominant team. The first reason St. John’s can cover is the number itself is playable. As of publication Duke -6.5 with a total of 141.5. St. John’s is getting over two full possessions in what should still be a close Sweet 16 matchup.

The best reason to side with St. John’s however is simple performance. Despite being a five seed, the Red Storm are 30-6 on the season and just made their first Sweet 16 since 1999 with a 67-65 win over Kansas. St. John’s did not trail in the second half and led by as many as 14 points, showing they can play with and even dominate stretches of a quality opponent.

There is also excellent recent-form evidence. St. John’s has won five games in a row coming into this contest. They’ve won games against Kansas, Northern Iowa, UConn, Seton Hall, and Providence. While Duke is also in a hot streak, St. John’s recent success paints them as a team who defends and excels in clutch situations.

An additional reason this number appeals is purely style of game. This does not project to be a high-scoring game that will fluctuate wildly. The total is down at 141.5 and Duke has gone under in 14 of its last 20 games while St. John’s has gone under in 11 of its last 12. A game that does not have teams scoring often opens up the floor for a +6.5 type spread to mean more because you waste less attempts getting down by double-digits.

On paper, there is no doubt Duke is the better team and should be favored. Duke is 34-2 overall this season while still ranking as the heaviest favorite to reach the Final Four. But, that same article refers to St. John’s as a No. 5 seed who just happened to be one of the highest seeds remaining in the tournament. If you buy into this game playing tight with a low total around 140, then St. John’s catches-plus becomes a lot more attractive.

If the game plays out cleanly for St. John’s, all they have to do is keep it physical, force Duke to execute from the half court, and stay within a possession or two for as long as possible. St. John’s has enough room to get the cover at +6.5.

Jim's Play: 621. St Johns (Sweet 16 Game of the Year)

Arkansas plays Arizona on Thursday, March 26, in the NCAA Sweet 16 round and there’s value in taking the Razorbacks to cover the spread. Arizona opened up as a 7.5-point favorite and the number is staying right around there as of Wednesday. The total has also settled in around 166.5.

One of the better angles to embrace the Razorbacks and the points is simple current form. Arkansas is 28-8 overall and 7-1 in its last eight, having won seven straight overall and nine of its last 10. This team just won a game in the Sweet 16, too, beating High Point 94-88 behind 36 points from Darius Acuff Jr.

That recent success on the scoreboard is key when you consider how Arkansas might attack Arizona offensively. Scoring enough to avoid extended dry spells will be critical for Arkansas if it wants to keep this one close.

Acuff also profiles as a guard who can take over late in games. He took over against High Point late, scoring nine of Arkansas’ final 11 points, per Reuters. Acuff also had six assists in that win. When you’re betting against a Sweet 16 team with a great player like Arizona on its roster, having your own best late-clock creator is useful.

Speaking of Arizona, another reason to like Arkansas is how the Wildcats responded to ball pressure in the second round. Arizona beat Utah State 78-66 but Utah State held Arizona without a field goal for nearly eight minutes. Utah State also forced eight second-half turnovers by pushing on Arizona relentlessly.

Granted, Arizona is Arizona. But if Utah State could do that to the Wildcats, there’s at least a blueprint for Arkansas to stay in this game by making Arizona uncomfortable for stretches.

Arizona is as good as anyone at 34-2, but trusting the Wildcats to cover eight or more points feels like a stretch. This team isn’t invincible, as we saw in the second round, and it hasn’t exactly been breezing through March so far despite entering the Sweet 16 for the third straight season. Arkansas having the points is logical when you consider how close this could end up being.

My bet is Arkansas +7.5. If this game tilts in Arizona’s favor, the Wildcats should win. But it feels like more of a one- or two-possession affair than an eight-point cover.

Jim's Play: 619. Arkansas 

Teams earning bids in March have something in common: They know how to win games. Nebraska doesn’t have to blow Iowa out to cover the short spread in this spot. Current market has Nebraska as -1.5 favorites with a moneyline hovering around -132. That basically means oddsmakers are just asking Nebraska to win by one “clean” possession.

You can bet on Nebraska simply because they’ve been the better team over the course of the whole season. Nebraska comes into this game 28-6, their program-best win total ever, and have already knocked off their first NCAA Tournament opponent while punching their Sweet 16 ticket for the first time in program history. Iowa is good at 23-12, but Nebraska has the better overall résume and has looked like the more reliable team throughout the season.

On top of that, Nebraska enters play with a recent result vs Iowa baked in. These teams split their season series. Iowa won the first meeting 57-52 on Feb. 17, but Nebraska bounced back with an 84-75 win at home on March 8. What does that prove? First, Nebraska can score enough to beat Iowa comfortably enough to cover -1.5. Secondly, Nebraska has already made adjustments after getting held under 60 points by Iowa in game one.

Finally, Nebraska may just be a little cheaper coming off of Florida. Iowa absolutely deserves every ounce of respect they get for upsetting the No. 1 seed 73-72, but beating Florida was also an emotional game won on a corner three with 4.5 seconds left. Nebraska played much more comfortable games against Troy and then survived Vanderbilt 74-72 on a late layin’. Betting Nebraska right here still gets you a battle-tested team without the potential “giant killer” inflation we sometimes see after major upsets.

Even from a matchup standpoint, you could lean Nebraska. Iowa will likely struggle to pose a style of play Nebraska hasn’t already prepared for. The Hawkeyes are shooting 48.9% from the field while holding opponents to 66 points per game. If we’re truly going to see a low-scoring game focused more on defense, the team only laying 1.5 doesn’t need to pull away late. Nebraska just needs to execute a little better than Iowa down the stretch.

Take everything mentioned above and apply that Nebraska likely winning straight up, then factor in just how low the number truly is. Nebraska already beat Iowa once this season, they have the better season long record for a reason, and at just -1.5, Nebraska doesn’t even need to win by two scores for both of these bets to cash.

Jim's Play: 616. Nebraska 

Texas gets enough points to cover against Purdue because the spread gives the Longhorns enough room to win in close given their high-end resume. Texas will need some adversity to overcome, but they do not need a blowout win to cover at Purdue.

First, I like Texas due to form/confidence. Texas is one of the hottest teams remaining as they came into the tournament in the First Four and now find themselves in the Sweet 16. They even made it to this point by beating No. 3 Gonzaga. Once a team shows they can win multiple games in tournament settings, it’s hard to bet against them failing in the spotlight once again, especially when they have two possessions to work with.

Texas also feels like a play because I am not seeing the game framed as a Purdue blowout in any capacity. Our Thursday preview pointed out that both defenses are suspect, but both offenses are efficient. Efficiency on both sides of the ball is critical for a spread this large as Texas does not need to dominate to beat the spread. If they can hit shots and avoid going cold for long stretches, Purdue will become very anxious about laying 7.5 points in a Sweet 16 matchup.

Deep shooting is another reason to believe in Texas. Our game preview specifically highlighted deep shooting as a potential difference maker. Texas has demonstrated they can score from deep this season which means they can fight back if Purdue goes on a run instead of falling embarrassingly behind if the game gets out of hand early. Anytime the dog has the three-ball and can trade punches on offense for long stretches, the spread will stay viable until late in the game.

I fully believe Purdue is the better team and are deserving of being favorites. They are 29-8 compared to Texas’s 21-14 record. The moneyline would even have you win your bet most of the time if you take Purdue. However, that is not the same as Purdue covering 7.5. Texas has exceeded expectations to get this far, the line gives them enough leeway to lose a close game, and games in the Sweet 16 often come down to the final possession as the margins are typically closer than most people realize.

Jim's Play: 617. Texas 

Houston has some ground to stand on in betting -1.5 against Minnesota Wednesday, March 25, 2026, but the strongest route to that number starts with the injury advantage. The Wolves are still without Anthony Edwards and his right knee inflammation, and  Ayo Dosunmu is questionable. Houston counters with Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams on the injury report, but Edwards not suiting up is the bigger individual loss in this game and Edwards is a massive late-clock shot creator who the Wolves will miss greatly in a spread this close.

The other factor tilting this spread Houston’s way is playoff desperation and the standings. These teams are a half-game apart in the race for Western Conference playoff positioning, so we are not exactly talking about a dead spot in either schedule. For Houston, this is exactly the type of game that will make or break seeding. Playoff implications combined with a near pick’em make betting the fractionally healthier team on the top of the number an appealing play.

Houston also offers a clear path on offense when attacking the rim through its primary playmakers. Houston shot 52% from the field and 47% from deep in its recent victory over Atlanta with Kevin Durant firing and Alperen Sengun nearly recording a triple-double. Houston lost at Chicago next but Sengun dominated with 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists and the Rockets still put up 124 points despite an atrocious start to the game. Houston’s offense seems good enough to win this game if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot again to begin things.

Minnesota becomes a fade when you consider how reliant they are on role players at the moment.  Minnesota has won three of four without Edwards, including recently on the road against Boston. Betting Houston isn’t an easy tilt for those reasons. But Edwards not playing still means the Wolves are having to lean on players like Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert to continue overperforming on offense. Players can have one great game, especially against a Houston team that lacks top-end scoring threats, but betting against Minnesota’s offense regressing some without Edwards makes sense.

At the end of the day, Houston only needs to win by a bucket or two because the number is -1.5. If KD and Sengun dictate the pace on offense and Minnesota senses those missing Edwards possessions down the stretch, Houston has the advantage and should cash.

Jim's Play: 573. Rockets 

I’m taking the Clippers tonight just because I believe Milwaukee’s injury report is the biggest matchup relevant factor. Milwaukee listed Giannis Antetokounmpo as out today with a knee injury. He was expected to be re-evaluated in roughly one week. Kevin Porter Jr. is also out tonight and Kyle Kuzma is questionable. Losing Giannis for what could be up to a week plus KPJ and Kuzma for tonight would be a major blow to Milwaukee who is just 29-41 on the season and 13-22 away from home.

Milwaukee’s lack of health also works in L.A.’s favor from a recent-form perspective. The Clippers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 138-131 overtime victory at Dallas on Saturday night. They got 41 points and 11 assists from Darius Garland and 34 points from Kawhi Leonard while shooting 56.7% from the floor and 21-of-42 from deep. This matters because the Clippers offense may have finally woken up before the season ended and if that momentum can carry at home versus Milwaukee, the Bucks may have a tough time keeping up.

Milwaukee did find ways to beat Phoenix 108-105 on Saturday without Giannis so this is not the spot to completely write off the Bucks. However, Milwaukee won that game in a tight fashion and even then the offense still had to feast off of role players such as Ryan Rollins. Not having Giannis, KPJ and Kuzma or Kuzma limited is a scary proposition for Bucks fans. Going on the road and having to keep within two possessions of a Clippers team that still has the playoffs on their mind is a tall task.

My cleanest cover script for this game is the Clippers’ healthier core provides them more efficient offense and Milwaukee can’t create enough top-end scoring without Giannis. The game gets away from Milwaukee even faster if Kuzma is limited or ruled out of the game. One final wrinkle to keep an eye on: Kawhi Leonard is a game time decision so we’ll know closer to tip which direction this leans. If he plays, the cover side of the Clippers is much stronger in my opinion.

Jim's Play: 550. Clippers

Florida’s ability to cover is primarily because they are coming off one of the most dominant wins in first round tournament history. The Gators obliterated Prairie View A&M 114-55. That’s right, Florida won by 59 points, which was the second-largest margin of victory in NCAA tournament history. Florida shot the ball remarkably well at 64.3% from the field while dominating the rebounding margin 54-20. Seven different players scored in double figures highlighting both their efficiency and overall depth.

Speaking of balance, Florida isn’t beating teams by having just one player will everything on their shoulders. They aren’t leaning on Anthony Black to shoot them to victory, nor are they depending solely on James Martinez Jr.’s defense. Reuben Chinyelu posted a double-double against Prairie View A&M while Boogie Fland scored efficiently and Thomas Haugh facilitated at a high level. That balance matters because it means teams can’t game plan against just one Florida player for 40 minutes.

Iowa beat Clemson 67-61 in the first round so they are no cupcake. But the style of victory should concern betting on the Hawkeyes to keep things close. Iowa beat Clemson by dominating the rebounding margin and slowing the game down to a crawl. Iowa scored just 67 points against Clemson, which will be a completely different task when matched up with Florida’s ability to bury teams with size and constant scoring.

This is also as simple as tournament paths. Iowa was able to sneak in as a 9-seed despite only having a good season as opposed to a great one. Florida is the defending national champion and 1-seed in this pod. Current betting lines account for that and Florida’s blowout win on Friday night only adds to the case that they can cover this spread.

Florida posting another strong box score like Friday night’s should be enough to cash this ticket. Keep Iowa in games for stretches they will, but Florida has too much size, depth, and talent to let this one stay close.

Jim's Play: 812. Florida  

Wake Forest didn’t exactly dominate its opening NIT game. Over Navy, the Deacons won 82-72 win but the recap specifically noted that Wake wasn’t especially sharp early on and the energy level was “non-existent” before things clicked. That matters when your second round opponent is significantly tougher because you can’t afford to play down to your competition if you want to cover more than two possessions.

Illinois State also likes the way the game shakes out matchup wise. Wake took care of Illinois State’s Kent State in the opening round, so by virtue of Sunday both teams have essentially played each other. Sunday’s game naturally shapes up to be more competitive than the opening round tilt, and the line confirms that theory. Yes, Wake is the better team and has the clear advantage at home but to open up at -7.5 implies Illinois State is respected enough to hang around for most of the game instead of just surviving.

Also, remember, Illinois State is catching 7.5 points against a clearly average Wake Forest team that won just 18 games during the regular season. Home court and conference bias will get you to something like -6 or -6.5 pretty easily, but once you push past two full possessions against essentially nothing that often creates value on the dog, particularly in the NIT where fight and tempo often determine games just as much as raw athleticism.

Cleanest cover script here is simple: ISU keeps the game in check, prevents Wake Forest from getting out in transition and makes the final eight minutes a possession game. Wake should still win but Illinois State has enough value at +7.5 to remain on the right side of the number.

Jim's Play: 825. Illinois St (NIT 2nd Round Game of the Year)

I’ll be playing Vandy here Saturday against Nebraska as my 2nd Round Game of the Year. First of all, just take a look at the number. Nebraska gets seeded No. 4 here, but Vanderbilt is the No. 5 seed coming in at 27-8 against Nebraska’s 27-6 record, so we’re not talking about this being a huge class-gap matchup. CBS’s preview of the game calls this a close second-round game between two teams with very similar records – exactly what you look for when wanting to take the points.

In Vanderbilt’s first-round win against McNeese, they shot 51% from the field, got 26 points from Tyler Tanner, and got solid scoring from Devin McGlockton, Duke Miles, and Tyler Nickel to pull away late. Reuters discussed how Vanderbilt was able to handle McNeese’s pressure well enough before separating late with smooth offense and excellent ball movement. If a team can score that efficiently against anyone then they are dangerous as a short underdog.

Also lending value to Vanderbilt covering the spread is the fact that Nebraska might be coming off one of those giant emotional let loose type of wins that actually make your next game more difficult. The Cornhuskers just picked up their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory on Saturday, pulling away from Troy 76-47. Reuters said it was a “first win ever in school history” that finally ended Nebraska’s 0-8 NCAA Tournament streak. A win like that is monumental for a program, and Nebraska will have a tough time matching that same level of emotion, just 48 hours later against a vastly superior opponent.

Speaking of superior opponents, the matchup looks even closer when you consider how both teams got to this point. Nebraska blasted Troy, but Troy shot only 28.3% from the floor and made Nebraska’s life fairly easy on offense. Vanderbilt meanwhile dealt with a McNeese team that made them turn the ball over and get crushed on the offensive boards, yet the Commodores still came away with the win by 10 points because they were the more efficient team and took care of the ball. That should allow Vanderbilt to weather Nebraska’s initial attack and keep this game in one- or two-possession territory for long periods of time.

Finally, there’s just something to be said about Vanderbilt’s style of play on offense Saturday against McNeese. The Commodores showed that they can still win even when the opposition outdoes them in hustle stats like defensive rebounds and steals because they made their shots and took care of the ball. Nebraska played great against Troy, tallying 20 assists on 28 field goals and only coughing the ball up six times, but asking them to play that efficiently against a better offensive team with more athletes is asking a lot. If Nebraska plays even just slightly below their potential on offense then this spread gets very difficult to cover.

Put it all together and you get this: Vanderbilt is a dangerous 5-seed that scored in bunches Saturday against a quality team while Nebraska is likely getting too many points coming off a once-in-a-lifetime kind of win for them. Take Vandy against the number here. 

Jim's Play: 781. Vanderbilt (NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year)

Michigan State might just need a semi-average performance to cover the spread against Louisville on Saturday. The Spartans hold a manageable number while the game flows into their core competencies. Lines are hovering around Michigan State -4.5 with an O/U of 151, which means they don’t need to blow out Louisville, just keep a game within reach while their size and physicality matter.

The rebounding and points in the paint battle will heavily favor Michigan State. The Spartans crushed North Dakota State 92-67 in the opening round while shooting 58.9% and recording 26 assists on 33 made field goals. Carson Cooper posted 20 points and 10 rebounds while Jaxon Kohler dropped 12 points and nine rebounds, showing how smoothly their frontcourt can move the ball. Against Louisville, that advantage could be huge. 

Pick your weakness for Louisville, and Michigan State probably has a strength to counter it. Louisville eked out a close win against South Florida, 83-79, while coughing up a 22-point lead, committing a season-high 22 turnovers, and showing signs of struggle in the second half as the game turned ugly. South Florida scored 44 points in the paint versus Louisville, which could come back to bite the Cardinals against a bigger, stronger Michigan State team that wants to attack the rim.

Experience could matter as well. Michigan State wasn’t really challenged in the opening round, while Louisville had to weather some late foul trouble and almost let a huge lead slip away. The Cardinals will be without Mikel Brown Jr., while this Ryan Conwell took some nasty shots against South Florida. Against a team like Tom Izzo’s that can throw lots of fresh bodies at you and bully you inside, both of those factors could be relevant.

Michigan State wins the battle on the glass, forces Louisville’s turnovers to hurt them again, and grinds down its taller opponent with a deeper bench. The game won’t feel as close as the spread makes it out to be.

Jim's Play: 774. Michigan State 

Why bet the Billikens to cover at Saturday’s game? Michigan’s opening spread of -12.5 is inflated for a team that has legitimate scoring potential in St. Louis.

Offensive production is the biggest reason to side with the underdog. St. Louis averages 87.7 points per game, right around what Michigan scores at 87.2 and backed that up with a beatdown against Georgia 102-77 in the opening round. A hundred point-scoring team is tough to bet against catching double digits because as long as they can go on runs they can keep the game within reach.

Speaking of that opening round game, Georgia coach Tom Crean said St. Louis got what it wanted by forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. Josh Schertz echoed that by saying the Billikens got stops and that “the defense fuels the offense.” Turnovers are even more important when playing Michigan and if St. Louis can force even a few live-ball possessions against the Wolverines they have a great chance to keep this close.

Michigan has also been disappointing from a betting perspective recently. They are just 6-16 against the number in their last 24 games and 1-4 ATS in its last five while St. Louis is 18-14 ATS on the season. That isn’t to say the Wolverines won’t cover, just that they have been bet up too frequently to lay those big numbers.

Speaking of laying big numbers, the game script may benefit St. Louis as well. Michigan likes to play in the 80s or higher-possession games, but so does St. Louis which makes it difficult for Michigan to pull away. Michigan is the better team, but high-possession games tend to benefit underdogs as well since the teams won’t struggle to score for long stretches.

Everything favors Michigan, which is why they should be favored. The Wolverines went 32-3 this season, earned a No. 1 seed, and dismantled Howard 101-80 despite looking dead in the first half. But let’s focus on that first half. Michigan has proven it can play down to its competition’s level and St. Louis is far from a pushover as a 16-seed.

The safest way to get to cover is if St. Louis can match Michigan’s scoring. If the Billikens can keep their offense rolling, come back when Michigan makes a run, and push this game into the 80-possession range it makes keeping within 12 points quite feasible..

Jim's Play: 775.  St Louis

Northern Iowa is the team I'm looking at here Friday for my NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year.  You’ll see Northern Iowa listed around +9.5 right now while the total is being pushed down toward 131.5. That’s key because when the number is this low, possessions are more valuable, and it’s more difficult for the favorite to pull away. A spread around 10 points in a game that’s being lined in the low 130s automatically grants some inherent value to the underdog.

Style of play is the biggest reason why UNI will stay close. Northern Iowa plays at a slow pace, and several of the current game previews specifically mention the Panthers’ pack-line defense and methodical pace. One site projected UNI to play at just 65.3 possessions per game, which gets at why pace-of-play matters in these discussions. If the game features few possessions, it naturally benefits the underdog because there are fewer opportunities for the favorite to build a gap.

On top of playing slow, Northern Iowa can keep things close defensively. A New York Post preview says that the Panthers allow only 61.3 points per game, while another preview called UNI 24th in defensive efficiency while holding opponents to under 29% from three-point range. Against a St. John’s team that thrives on rhythm and momentum, that lets UNI dictate the game’s pace and force it into a grinder.

Conference and tournament history further favors UNI because of how Ben Jacobson wants his team to play. St. John’s own preview mentioned that UNI is known as “a sneaky dangerous NCAA tournament team” before citing multiple tournament upsets by the Panthers. History doesn’t predict the future, of course, but that dovetails with the pace argument by suggesting that Northern Iowa isn’t a timid 12-seed that will fold under pressure.

Nothing about this analysis is meant to undermine how good St. John’s is or that they shouldn’t be favored. The Red Storm are 28-6 overall, won the Big East regular season and tournament championships, and have gone 19-1 since January 3 according to their preview. They’re more than earned that line. 

Game script is a silent assassin for UNI as well. If the Panthers lose, they’ll probably lose by forcing St. John’s to play keep-away on offense. The Red Storm win by dominating the inside, taking few threes, and imposing their will in the second half. Against a team like Northern Iowa that forces opponents to grind out every bucket, it’s hard to envision St. John’s pulling away by more than a few points.

UNI covers by playing low-tempo basketball, frustrating opponents with its half-court defense, keeping opponents off the three-point line, and keeping the overall possession count down. They might not win, but that keeps the score closer than this spread indicates. Think matchup-adjusted true contests, not blowouts. 

Jim's Play: 765. Northern Iowa (NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year)

It’s tough to find much on-paper argument against taking Iowa to cash the spread against Clemson on Friday, March 20, 2026. The first thing that makes me think Iowa is the play is the line itself. We are not talking about Clemson laying points here. Many current lines have Iowa as a slight favorite at -1.5 with a total between 129.5 and 130.5. 

Defense is why Iowa can go ahead and cash this bet. Iowa allows 66.0 points per game to Clemson’s 66.7. Those numbers are close, but Iowa is slightly better defensively AND scores slightly more points per game at 75.2 compared to Clemson’s 74.1. Against a game total hovering around 130 points, those little margins become even more important and Iowa comes out better on both sides of the ball.

The low total is a sleeper reason Iowa loves this spot as well. Games projected in the low 130s typically indicate a game where both teams will play in the half-court and every possession will matter. As a result, you often see the team with the better defensive baseline and fewer empty possessions come out on top in games like this. Since Iowa is getting killed anyway, it does not need its offense to go crazy for this game to cover. Lay the short number, defend efficiently, and cash the check.

Lastly, a quick glance at the record tells you that both of these teams are pretty similar. Iowa sits at 21-12 while Clemson is 24-10. So despite what you would expect from the records, this game is taking place on a neutral floor in Tampa. That clearly indicates that the oddsmakers and betting public respects Iowa’s matchup quite a bit here.

Honestly, it all comes back to Iowa being the better team right now and I just don't like the way the ACC is looking.  They are currently favored, they have a better statistical profile when you account for both offense and defense, and this low-total game sets up as a potential Iowa grind-out win rather than a Clemson blowout. Iowa is my play against this ACC conference team. 

Jim's Play: 747. Iowa 

I'm looking at Akron plus the points against Texas Tech here on Friday, March 20.  One obvious note here is the line. As of publishing, Akron sits around +7.5 to +8 depending on which book you look at. Line movement is important because this shows some early respect being shown to Akron as opposed to the books blindly inflating the higher seed.

Akron’s best angle revolves around their offense. The Zips went 29-5 and scored 88.4 points per game this year, which ranks as one of the best outputs nationally. Teams that score like that are tough to fade as favorites because even if they get outpaced for stretches, good shot-making offenses can bail their teams out and keep the score within reach.

Speaking of hot, Akron is riding high into this game. The Zips’ 19 wins in their last 20 games and MAC tournament championship, while Texas Tech limps in having lost three straight including a 75-53 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament. That feels like a nice momentum differential for a dog getting multiple points.

Players disappearing for either team could also impact the line, specifically for Texas Tech. Several outlets mentioned Texas Tech will be without star forward J.T. Toppin for the game due to an ACL injury suffered in their previous game. This not only takes away one of Texas Tech’s biggest interior threats, but it shrinks the margin for error against an efficient Akron offense. Reuters even tabbed Akron as one of the seed-line teams most likely to make some noise, while SB Nation had a pretty detailed breakdown specifically mentioning Akron as a threat against an injury depleted Texas Tech team.

Lines could shift as the game draws closer, but as of now Akron feels like one of the better 12-seed options to lean on. They’ve got the line movement, efficiency on offense, hot hand, potential injury issue for Texas Tech and even a potential style mismatch to hang their hat on. Texas Tech will likely still win, but expecting them to definitively cover against a 29-win team with a top-30 offense in the country seems like a tall ask.

Jim's Play: Take: 741. Akron

Santa Clara can cover the spread against Kentucky Friday, March 20, 2026. Kentucky is favored by about 3.5 points right now. Why? Because this isn’t a typical 7-vs-10 game in terms of seeding. The best Broncos teams can stay inside the number, as told by the current market of Kentucky -3.5 and some books listing this line as low as -1.5.

The first thing that jumps off the page is offensive prowess. Santa Clara is 26-8 on the season while averaging 82.9 points per game. Kentucky is 21-13 while averaging 80.8 points per game. If we look at efficiency numbers, Santa Clara owns a good overall profile. The Broncos have a 118.9 offensive rating along with a 15.88 SRS. That is more than enough talent to keep pace with Kentucky for 40 minutes.

We can’t overlook Santa Clara’s resume, either. Sure, Kentucky played in a better league, but the Broncos went 15-3 in WCC play while compiling a better overall record than Kentucky’s 10-8 SEC mark and 21-13 overall finish. Kentucky played the tougher schedule, but Santa Clara has consistently won games throughout the year. When we’re talking about a game that likely won’t be separated by many points, consistency matters.

Kentucky also doesn’t profile as a team that will blow out Santa Clara. Per Sports-Reference, the Wildcats allow 73.8 points per game. Kentucky does not have the defensive profile of a team that you blindly assume will create enough separation against a good offense. If Santa Clara can get into any sort of offensive rhythm to start this game, Kentucky will likely have to win it on the rim. Once again, that is a formula in which the underdog covers the spread.

Santa Clara gets the points here on Friday.

Take: 761. Santa Clara 

I like St. Louis to win outright because this isn’t really an upset pick. Georgia is getting around -2.5 on the spread and -148 on the moneyline, but ESPN’s BPI is calling the game by only 0.2 points and giving the Bulldogs just a 50.9% chance to win. All that implies that the Billikens are right in it.

Their first advantage is that they’ve been more consistent. St. Louis enters the tournament 28-5 overall and 15-3 in A-10 play. Georgia isn’t far behind at 22-10 and 10-8 in SEC play, but both the season and conference schedules support that St. Louis is the more reliable winner.

St. Louis might be better able to withstand pressure in a close game, because it beat Clemson and survived a slow start against George Washington already this month. Per ESPN’s tournament team write-up: 

“The Billikens dropped to 36-15 early against George Washington in the A-10 quarterfinals before going on a huge run to pull away.”

Teams that can battle back from big deficits are tough to beat in games that can come down to one possession. Just ask Michigan, who also snuck into the tournament with some offensive struggles in January. When the opponent has that sort of experience staying calm during a close game, it’s a real advantage.

Speaking of lines, St. Louis being near a -110 price to win outright shouldn’t be discounted either. The committee had Georgia and St. Louis as the 8th and 9th best teams respectively, so they thought both teams were similar entering the tournament. Neither the seeding nor the betting market thinks Georgia has a decisive edge, so trusting the more complete team to win makes sense.

If St. Louis runs its offense efficiently, get balanced scoring like they did against Clemson, and lives in the Georgia half court, the Billikens win. I expect this game to come down to one possession, and I like St. Louis in those games.

Jim's Play: 715. St Louis 

I will be looking for VCU to cover the spread against North Carolina on Thursday, March 19, 2026. This game has the look of one where UNC’s talent edge is bigger than spreads bettors believe should exist between these two teams. UNC is a 1.5-point favorite while others have the Rams at +2.5, which speaks volumes about how the market believes in this Rams team.

VCU has been built to compete every possession against anyone. The Rams went 27-7 overall this season and won both the Atlantic 10 regular season and conference tournament titles. Scoring 81.6 points per game while allowing 71.5 points per contest led to a +10.1 scoring margin, showing this team knows how to hang with a tournament opponent like a No. 6 seed for 40 minutes. 

UNC's  roster got hit with a significant loss when freshman Caleb Wilson went down for the season with thumb surgery. This injury is worth noting when betting against a team as good as North Carolina by less than two possessions. The Tar Heels have managed to continue rolling without their potential All-American wing, but there just is not as much margin for error when your best player goes down, even against a veteran Rams team that has played with discipline all year.

VCU plays in a style that many higher octane favorites dislike. The Rams spread the ball around on offense and defend well enough not to get blown out. Team stats back that up too with opponents shooting just 43.1% from the field and 33.1% from three-point range while VCU shoots 46.0% from the field and 36.7% from three-point territory. Having that shooting capability means the Rams can trade shots with North Carolina instead of having to hope for UNC turnovers and poor shooting to keep things close.

VCU just needs to do what it did all season: Defend, shoot enough three-pointers, and avoid getting beaten in the transition. Taking the points with the Rams is easy with the line sitting around one possession and UNC missing their best player.

Jim's Play: 721. VA Commonwealth 

I will be looking for South Florida to cover the +5 line here on Thursday, March 19. because it’s possible this game plays closer than most 6-vs-11 games.

First off, +5 is a solid number. Odds have settled around Louisville -5 with a total near 165, which means South Florida will get over two possessions in a game where they have the offense and pressure to hang around.

Another reason why this game could go down to the wire centers on Louisville’s injuries. Louisville will be missing freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. for opening weekend due to a back injury, which is significant against a South Florida team that likes to play at a fast pace, pressure the ball, and force turnovers. The Cardinals had to drag their feet through the ACC tournament without Brown, who began practicing with the team after that tournament concluded. There’s a reason betting analysts were keeping an eye on his injury status as we waited for bracket reveal: losing a lead guard against a scrappy double-digit seed is bad news.

South Florida is entering the tournament in strong form as well. South Florida has won 11 straight games overall and only suffered one loss since January 18. These aren’t the credentials of a team you should be expecting to fall behind by double digits. Hot and cold streaks exist, sure, but again South Florida catching points with momentum going isn’t the sort of recipe you’d expect to end in blowout.

Offensively, USF knows how to push teams around. Louisville’s own scouting report described South Florida as “one of the fastest teams in the country,” while detailing their penchant for offensive rebounds, steals, and second chance points. Advanced analytics website The Wall Street Journal also singled out South Florida as a potential upset pick because of how they control the ball on offense (high offensive rebound rate, low turnover rate) and shoot from distance. Louisville will likely be favored because they have the talent edge overall, but South Florida’s strengths directly play into traits that make underdogs dangerous against the spread, even if they lose the game outright.

South Florida has proven scorers to match Louisville punch for punch. South Florida’s leading scorer is listed at 16.8 points per game, while Izaiyah Nelson (9.6 rebounds per game) and CJ Brown (4.8 assists per game) round out their best players. There’s plenty of balance to the Bulls offense, and if Enis and Nelson produce close to their averages South Florida should always have an answer to Louisville scoring runs.

All that being said, Louisville is a good team that some analysts thought would be a tournament under-seed. Point-shaving on South Florida is not meant to suggest that the Bulls have the better overall résumé – just that they have a path to keeping it close. If South Florida’s pressure, rebounding, and pace turns this into a four- or five-point game, they’ll cover the spread. Louisville’s missing point guard just makes that outcome more feasible.

Jim's Play: 709. So.Florida

Miami (Ohio) should be able to cover the First Four vs SMU as roughly a 6.5-point dog in Dayton.

First and foremost, Miami (Ohio) can cover because this team has simply been too good all year long to be treated like an also-ran. The RedHawks are 31-1, with an 18-0 record in the MAC. SMU, meanwhile, finished 20-13 and only 8-10 within the ACC. While SMU’s obvious conference strength advantage doesn’t make Miami better by default, it does make jumping to +6.5 feel awfully high for a team that won 30-plus games.

Miami (Ohio) also possesses the better offensive profile coming into the game. The RedHawks average 90.7 points per game on 52 percent shooting, whereas SMU scores 84.2 points per game on 49 percent shooting. The linked preview article also points out Miami scores 13.1 points per game more than SMU allows. For Miami, keeping pace on the offensive end is important because it limits against shooting droughts that favorites need in order to pull away.

Miami also has a minor edge in terms of form, too. Miami goes 9-1 over its last 10 games, while SMU falls to 4-6 over its last 10 contests. Miami’s last 10 show a team that is still winning basketball games while SMU’s regression towards the mean hints at a squad that hasn’t played great down the stretch.

Miami’s veteran balance helps it have a chance to keep games within reach for 40 minutes, too. Peter Suder averages 14.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, while Eian Elmer has scored 14.8 points and added 6.1 rebounds over the last 10 games. Miami doesn’t need to rely on just one player making shots, which is helpful in a pressure-packed environment like the First Four.

That’s not to say SMU doesn’t have its strengths. The Mustangs grab 10.3 offensive rebounds per game (third in ACC) and have dangerous shot-makers like Kevin Miller and Jaron Pierre Jr. However, SMU has also proven vulnerable down the stretch, highlighted by recent losses like their 62-58 setback against Louisville in the ACC Tournament. If SMU struggles to put games away, Miami could hang around and steal with discipline.

I won't be surprised if Miami pulls the straight-up win here on Wednesday. Still, I'll gladly take the points with the dog. 

Jim's Play: 688. Miami Ohio 

After reviewing the tapes on Navy and Wake Forest, Navy has a strong case to cover the spread in their NIT first round matchup. The number just seems too high for a Wake Forest team that does not defend particularly well against an opponent that lives by discipline and defense. Odds have Wake Forest sitting around -12 with the total ranging from 147.5-148.5, giving Navy enough room to stay in this game if its defense performs up to standards.

This all starts with Navy’s defense. Navy ranks 5th nationally at allowing just 63.8 points per game on the season while winning 26 games. For reference, that is a much better profile than Wake Forest whose defense has allowed 77.1 points per game. Navy may not score at an incredibly high level at 74.7 points per game, but if they can slow this game down and force Wake Forest into inefficient possessions, they dramatically increase their chances of staying in the game.

Speaking of inefficient possessions, Wake Forest lost 71-62 to Clemson just a few days ago in the ACC Tournament. Clemson created turnovers with their physical defense and established a huge lead early in the game. This is where Navy can truly upset the applecart. Navy’s entire style of play revolves around discipline, frustrating opponents defensively, and forcing teams to earn every shot. If Clemson was able to manufacture those kinds of turnovers and frustrations against Wake Forest, there is no doubt Navy can replicate that formula.

Offensively, Navy will not blow many teams away. As stated earlier, they average just 74.7 points per game, but Navy does not have to outscore Wake Forest to win this game. This scout says the matchup to look at closely is Wake Forest on defense vs. Navy’s offense. If Navy can move the ball efficiently, take good shots, and keep Wake from putting together huge runs, defensive-minded Navy has a great chance to cover the spread.

Lastly, this line may very well reflect the difference in overall team strength, but Wake Forest’s record does not inspire confidence that they will cover as two-score favorites. Wake Forest ended the year with a 17-16 mark and ranked 13th in the ACC. Meanwhile Navy won 26 games and plays much more consistent basketball, even if the schedule was admittedly weaker. With that said, Navy gives itself a chance with its style of play and should appeal to fans of laying bold numbers in the NIT.

Jim's Play: 689. Navy

South Alabama has a legitimate shot to cover the spread against Auburn in the NIT first round because the number looks inflated relative to the actual gap between these teams.

The market is asking a lot from Auburn. Current odds have the Tigers around -17.5 at home, which means Auburn has to win by a big margin against a South Alabama team that went 21-11 and finished near the top of the Sun Belt. That is a heavy ask for an Auburn team that is only 17-16 overall this season.

The best cover angle starts with Auburn’s inconsistency. The Tigers are 17-16 with a 7-11 SEC record, and despite a strong offense at 82.7 points per game, they also allow 79.4 points per game, which ranks poorly on the defensive side. Auburn allows 79.4 per game, reinforcing the idea that this is not a team built to comfortably separate from opponents for 40 minutes.

South Alabama is much more solid defensively than Auburn. The Jaguars score 74.6 points per game while allowing just 69.8, which is a far tighter profile than Auburn’s. For an underdog catching this many points, that matters a lot because a team that defends and avoids getting run out can stay inside a big number even if it loses outright.

There is also a style angle that supports South Alabama hanging around. Auburn’s own game preview notes that the Jaguars rely heavily on zone defenses and are led by Sun Belt Player of the Year Chaze Harris, who averages 18.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. Zones can shorten games, disrupt rhythm, and force favorites into more jump shots than they want. That is exactly the kind of setup that helps a double-digit underdog stay within range.

Auburn is the No. 1 seed in the NIT and should win at Neville Arena, but the spread is pricing the Tigers more like a dominant team than a flawed one. Auburn has the better conference pedigree, yet this season’s results say it has been vulnerable, especially on defense, while South Alabama has the steadier overall profile. With Auburn needing a blowout and South Alabama bringing a sound defensive structure plus a proven scorer, the points look attractive.

Jim's Play: 675. So Alabama - NIT 1st Round 

UNC Wilmington has a good case to cover +5.5 against Yale in the NIT first round because the Seahawks bring the exact traits that travel well in March: rebounding, defense, and enough scoring balance to stay attached even on the road. 

The strongest angle is on the glass. UNCW averaging 40.0 rebounds per game to Yale’s 35.2, and the Seahawks with 39.2 rebounds per game, which ranks near the top of the country. That matters in a road underdog role because rebounding creates extra possessions, limits second chances for the favorite, and helps keep a team alive during cold shooting stretches.

UNCW also looks better equipped defensively than people may realize. The Seahawks allowing just 67.8 points per game with opponents shooting only 47.2% effective field goal percentage, both better defensive marks than Yale’s 72.0 points allowed and 52.0% opponent effective field goal rate. That gives UNCW a real path to hanging around if this turns into more of a half-court game than a clean Yale offensive showcase.

Yale is the more polished offensive team on paper, averaging about 81.8 points per game with 50% shooting, but that also helps explain why the spread may be a touch inflated. The Bulldogs are being priced more on offensive ceiling, while UNCW’s physical profile suggests it can make this uglier and more possession-by-possession than Yale prefers. If UNCW controls the boards and keeps Yale from getting easy rhythm offense, five and a half points is a healthy cushion.

There is also a consistency angle behind the number. UNCW enters 26-6 and won the CAA regular season, while Yale is 24-6 and won the Ivy. These are not teams from different tiers of the sport. They are both quality mid-major teams, which makes a spread beyond two possessions a bit generous toward the home side.

Jim's Play: 667. Wilmington - NIT 1st Round

Liberty has every reason to think it can cover +5.5 against George Mason in the NIT first round as this has more potential to be a grinder than a game with wide separation. ESPN is listing George Mason -5.5 with the total somewhere in the 143.5 to 144.5 range, and that type of number is in danger when one team consistently plays a disciplined, low mistake game like Liberty.

The first reason why Liberty can stay within the number is simply because of its overall body of work. Liberty comes into the game at 25-7 and finished first in Conference USA while George Mason sits at 23-9 and finished fifth in the A-10. This is not a class-gap matchup by any means. Liberty also travels well as the Flames are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 road games, which is important when an underdog catches multiple possessions on the road.

Liberty also has the better offensive profile of the two teams. The Flames are averaging approximately 78.2 points per game while George Mason puts up only 73.3 points per contest. On a night where every possession should count, Liberty having a little bit more juice offensively makes the Flames underdog more live to hang around, especially if the Patriots find themselves forced to score in the half court.

The defense of George Mason is obviously the strength of the favorite as it allows only 67.5 points per game, but that stat actually helps the cover case more than it hurts it. Favorites that win with defense and control instead of explosive offense become much harder to generate separation against. If George Mason dictates tempo, this should be a lower-possession game, and lower-possession games inherently favor the side taking points.

Liberty also comes into this having found some great form late. The Flames are on a roll heading into this game closing on a five-game win streak with wins over Middle Tennessee State, Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State. Meanwhile, George Mason just lost 63-57 to St. Bonaventure in the A-10 Tournament. This does not mean Mason cannot win this game, but it does mean Liberty will likely roll in better rhythm.

Finally, this matchup profiles nicely for a backdoor cover even if George Mason ends up controlling long stretches of gameplay. Liberty has a number of efficient scorers including Darius McGhee, who is averaging 16.8 points per game on 50.3%/48.1% shooting and Nendhal Phifer at 13.4 points per game. Additionally, guard Bryson Grudger offers versatility averaging 11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists. This type of balance allows the Flames to answer any scoring runs with enough shot-making to stay within two possessions late in the game.

George Mason will likely win this game as favorites do at home, but the overall profile of this game says it shouldn’t be won by much. Liberty has better offense, plays well away from home, and catches enough points in what projects to be a low-scoring game controlled by defenses. Those are all recipes for an underdog cash.

Jim's Play: 665. Liberty (NIT 1st Round Game of the Year)

Houston is in a strong situational spot at home in a game with major Western Conference seeding implications. The matchup is at Toyota Center, and current market reporting has the Rockets around -2.5 with the total around 226.5. Houston already beat the Lakers once this season and can lock up the season series with another win, which matters in a crowded West race.

The best argument for the Rockets against the spread is that they’ve already shown they can bother this version of the Lakers physically. In the first meeting, Houston beat L.A. 119-96 on Christmas Day, leading wire to wire. In that game and in preview coverage for Monday’s rematch, Houston’s size, rebounding, and defensive pressure were highlighted as real problems for the Lakers, especially by keeping L.A. off the foul line.

Houston also profiles well enough on both ends to justify being a home favorite. The Rockets are scoring about 114.1 points per game, own roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating, and carry a 113.2 defensive rating, while the Lakers are allowing about a 116.8 defensive rating on the season. That’s a good setup for Houston’s scorers and slashers, especially at home, where their physical style tends to play up.

The injury and rest angle also nudges toward Houston. The Rockets enter with Alperen Sengun listed GTD, while Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, and Jae’Sean Tate are reported out. Even with that, Houston just beat New Orleans behind 32 from Kevin Durant and a big two-way line from Amen Thompson. The Lakers, meanwhile, are coming off an emotional 127-125 overtime win over Denver on Saturday night, which raises the possibility of some defensive slippage on the road after a draining performance from Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James.

As for the OVER, the clearest angle is offensive efficiency. The Lakers are scoring about 116.5 points per game with a 117.8 offensive rating, while Houston is at about 114.1 points per game with roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating. Even if Houston plays a bit slower overall, both teams are efficient enough to get this into the high 220s if they shoot anywhere near season norms.

There’s also recent form supporting points. The Lakers just played a 127-125 game against Denver and a 142-130 game against Chicago, showing how explosive they can be when Doncic, Reaves, and LeBron are all generating offense. Houston has been more volatile, but its recent results include a 145-120 loss to San Antonio and enough half-court firepower from Durant, Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and possibly Sengun to take advantage of a Laker defense that, despite recent improvement, still owns a season defensive rating near 116.8.

The one caution on the over is that Houston’s pace is modest at about 96.1, while the Lakers are closer to 98.6. So this is not purely a pace bet. It’s more of an efficiency and game-script bet: close spread, playoff-seeding stakes, star shot-makers on both sides, and a number in the mid-220s that can be beaten without either team needing a wild tempo.

Jim's Play: 514. Rockets 

I like the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread at the LA Lakers on Saturday night.  The Nuggets enter with momentum after an incredible comeback victory and they still boast the best player in this game. Denver clawed its way back from down 20 on Thursday night to defeat San Antonio 136-131 behind 39 points from Jamal Murray and a 31-point, 20 rebound, 12 assist triple-double from Nikola Jokic. That type of elite shot creation and half-court offense travels, especially in a road game of this magnitude.

Denver also gets a slight edge due to the way the Lakers won on Thursday. Los Angeles defeated Chicago 142-130 behind 51 points from Luka Doncic, but the Lakers also gave up 130 points and Chicago shot 53.7% from the floor. Chicago was good, but Los Angeles wasn’t exactly stout defensively which is a dangerous recipe against Denver and Joki?.

Denver may even hold an availability advantage here. Denver’s official NBA injury report from Friday night listed Michael Porter Jr. (knee) as doubtful, but Lakers had multiple players on their injury report in public pregame reports from Saturday. At the very least, this is one where the lineups matter, but Denver has shown the ability to generate top-notch offense from Murray and Jokic even when they aren’t at full strength.

My best bet prediction is on Denver simply because: Nikola Jokic is the most reliable player in basketball, Murray is coming off a monster game, and the Lakers defense did not look good Thursday night. Denver has the stars and experience to keep you inside the number if it becomes a possession by possession battle.

Jim's Play: 557. Nuggets

UCLA has a solid case to cover because the number is pretty generous for a semifinal between teams that already played a tight game. Purdue is around a 7.5-point favorite in Chicago, but UCLA beat the Boilermakers 69-67 on January 20, so the Bruins have already shown they can handle this matchup and keep it close.

Another reason to like UCLA is that the Bruins are coming in with momentum after knocking off Michigan State 88-84 in the quarterfinals. Even more impressive, they did it while playing short-handed after Tyler Bilodeau left in the first half with a right leg injury. That kind of resilience matters in March, especially for an underdog catching multiple possessions.

There is also a value angle in the spread itself. Purdue at 25-8 and UCLA at 23-10, with both teams finishing 15-7 in Big Ten play, so the gap between them is not huge on paper. In that kind of matchup, getting more than two possessions with UCLA on a neutral floor is attractive.

Purdue looked sharp in its 74-58 win over Nebraska, but that was also a game where the Boilermakers shot well from deep and controlled things from the start. It is fair to expect a tougher, tighter game against a UCLA team that already beat them once and has the kind of defensive discipline to make favorites work in the half court.

My read is that Purdue may still be the more likely winner, but UCLA +7.5 makes sense because the Bruins already proved they can beat this team, the records are close, and semifinal games between familiar opponents often stay tighter than the line suggests.

Jim's Play:  612. UCLA 

I like Wisconsin here on Saturday in this Big 10 matchup against  Michigan.  Michigan is around a 12.5-point favorite in Chicago, but Wisconsin beat the Wolverines 86-84 in the regular-season meeting on January 10. When an underdog has already shown it can win the matchup outright, taking that many points on a neutral floor has real value.

Another reason to like the Badgers is their current offensive form. Wisconsin just beat Illinois 91-88 in overtime on Friday, and the guard duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell combined for 69 points. Reuters noted Wisconsin erased a 15-point first-half deficit and attacked the paint well enough to survive even while shooting just 10-for-41 from three, which says this team can still score and compete when it is not even shooting its best.

There is also a motivation and matchup angle. Michigan is 30-2 and clearly the top seed, but the Wolverines did not exactly cruise in their quarterfinal either, needing a late push to beat Ohio State 71-67. That supports the idea that Michigan is more likely to win than dominate, especially against a Wisconsin team that has already shown it can hang with elite competition and is trying to reach a third straight Big Ten tournament title game.

Wisconsin +12.5 makes sense because the Badgers already beat them once, their guards are playing at a high level, and that is a lot of points for a neutral-floor semifinal between two proven Big Ten teams.

Jim's Play:  609. Wisconsin  

I like Nebraska to cover this small dog line on Friday in the Big 10 Conference Tourney against Purdue. Purdue is getting installed just north of  a 3-point favorite at the United Center so Nebraska isn’t needing much to cash. Against a similarly ranked opponent on a neutral floor in a Big Ten tournament game, that’s a very manageable spread as an underdog. 

Nebraska also posted the better overall profile this season. Nebraska comes in at 26-5 on the year and 15-5 in conference play while Purdue is 24-8 overall and 13-7 in the Big Ten. It matters because the market is laying points as if Purdue is the slightly better side even though Nebraska actually finished better than Purdue during the regular season and earned a better seed as a result.

Rest and setup is another great angle to highlight. Nebraska has been idling around in the quarters while Purdue played Thursday and defeated Northwestern 81-68 to advance. That extra game can hurt you in tournament settings the next day, especially when facing a rested team with a high-end matchup ceiling.

The head-to-head result from earlier in the year helps Nebraska’s chances to keep it within the number as well. On February 10, Purdue only won 80-77 in OT in Lincoln. Despite falling down big early, the teams were still tight until Nebraska’s late-game chances ran dry. If a second meeting took OT to decide a winner, then sure, betting Nebraska plus over a possession on a neutral floor is understandable.

Nebraska +3.5 has definite value and could very well end up winning outright. Nebraska had a better regular season than Purdue, they’re fresher, and we already know they can keep a game against Purdue close because they almost lost to them at home earlier this year. To me, this feels more like a game that comes down to the final minute instead of an easy Boilermakers cover.

Jim's Play : Take: 810. Nebraska

Seton Hall makes a compelling play to cover the spread here on Friday because seven-and-a-half points is fairly large for a Big East tournament semifinal between heated rivals. The line opened at St. John’s -8 before moving to -7.5 at Madison Square Garden, meaning the Pirates can technically lose by six or fewer points and still win this bet.

One reason why I like Seton Hall is because of its current trajectory. The Pirates are 21-11 overall but they just dispatched Creighton 72-61 in the quarterfinals thanks to stellar play from Adam Clark and some surprising contributions from Jacob Dar. Momentum is important in March basketball, especially for an underdog team that already feels confident.

Seton Hall also has some additional motivation working in its favor. According to Reuters, the Pirates improved their chances of making the NCAA tournament with their win over Creighton, so there is an urgency to their game that we may not have seen if they were already locked into the field. That desperation can help an underdog cover in conference tournament play even if the favorite ultimately wins the game outright.

Granted, St. John’s is the better team overall at 26-6, but they may be slightly overvalued after grinding out an 85-72 win over Providence. They were way up on the glass in that matchup but still had to work to get the victory. Can they cover over seven points against a scorching-hot Seton Hall team on a neutral court in what figures to be a tight Big East semifinal? I’m not so sure. 

While St. Johns feels like the more likely winner in this game, Seton Hall +7.5 has too many factors working in its favor to go against. The Pirates are rolling, playing with some desperation and receiving enough points in this pressure-packed semifinal that could stay closer than expected.

Jim's Play:   833. Seton Hall 

Wisconsin has plenty of reasons to back here. The number seems a little high for a team that has already proved it can beat Illinois this year. Wisconsin won the regular-season meeting 92-90 in overtime in Champaign on Feb. 10, so laying around eight points on a neutral floor in Chicago is a ton of value in this rematch between two teams that already played once.

It's also tough to ignore Wisconsin's recent play and potential offensive ceiling. The Badgers defeated Washington on Thursday 85-82 on Thursday on the strength of 34 points from John Blackwell and 23 points from Nick Boyd. Wisconsin never trailed in that game. When a team has guard play like that in March, it makes life exponentially easier to keep a game inside a spread against even a talented favorite.

Throw in the line itself and we could have a situation where there's value on the board. Illinois opened up around -8.5 despite these two teams finishing extremely close to one another in overall profile (Illinois finished 24-7 while Wisconsin finished 23-9). That spread is a lot for a Big Ten tournament quarterfinal, especially when the underdog has already provided matchup proof it can put enough points on the board to push Illinois deep into a tight game.

The only real note against Wisconsin is that the Badgers were still missing Nolan Winter on Thursday due to an ankle injury. Wisconsin still went out and won the game comfortably enough and was never really blown out by the Rebels on offense.

Wisconsin +8.5 makes plenty of sense given that these two already played once (with Wisconsin winning), the Badgers have two hot guards who can score in March, and this number seems high for a neutral-floor game that should theoretically be closer than the spread implies.

Jim's Play:  807. Wisconsin

A case can easily be made for covering the spread here because Oklahoma has the type of total you want to see from a team playing the neutral floor. Most markets have Texas A&M -2.5, which is extremely short. At this number you are essentially asking whether Oklahoma can keep it to a one-possession game. That is very much in play considering how they have played of late.

If we’re looking for the best reason to like Oklahoma here, it would have to be momentum. Oklahoma just defeated South Carolina 86-74 on Wednesday for the fifth consecutive victory and that game came after rallying from a 13-point halftime deficit. Scoring 24 points were Nijel Pack, while Derrion Reid and Tae Davis had 20 and 18 points, respectively. Oklahoma did not shoot extremely well from the floor against the Gamecocks, but that run at the end of regulation shows it can manufacture points in crunch time.

Desperation could also play a factor here too. This game actually means more for the Sooners than Texas A&M does from a postseason standpoint. Sometimes that matters in conference tournament games when one team is fighting for something and the other does not have much to lose. When that’s the case, that added desperation often helps the underdog keep this thing inside the number.

The number itself also implies this game is closer than Texas A&M’s 21-10 record and Oklahoma’s 18-14 record would indicate. The market opened this around Aggies -2.5 to -3, which tells you Oklahoma is getting plenty of respect for its recent surge and high-end offensive potential. Action Network also outlines Oklahoma has the 20th-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country while Texas A&M checks in at just 43rd, further underscoring this offense’s ability to put up points when needed.

Oklahoma +2.5 is a great number because the Sooners are rolling, playing with confidence, and producing strong guard play at the right time of the season. In a neutral floor SEC tournament game with such a small spread, Oklahoma has as good of a chance as any to stay right there at game’s end.

Jim's Play:  751. Oklahoma  

I look to the NBA Southeast division for this mismatchp on Thursday as the division's top team, the Orlando Magic, takes on the worst team, the Washington Wizards. 

Orlando has the best reason to cover because this feels like a classic letdown spot against an overmatched opponent. The Magic are playing like a legitimate playoff team that is hot coming off a five-game winning streak, and the Wizards are playing like a lottery team that stinks coming off nine consecutive losses. Washington lost 150-129 to Miami on Tuesday. Orlando beat Cleveland 128-122 on Wednesday. That sort of difference in form explains why the public betting market has pushed Orlando into such heavy-favorite territory.

Timing of game plays into Orlando as well. Washington is coming in at the end of a Florida trip, fresher legs and all, after giving up 150 points against Miami the previous night. Orlando, meanwhile, gets to stay at home and play at Kia Center on Thursday. When one team can’t stop you and the other team wants the ball in its own hands on its home floor, it usually makes it easier for the favorite to create distance.

Washington giving up so many points also helps Orlando’s case. The Wizards’ recent performances indicate a team that has had major difficulties stopping opponents, and that could spell trouble against an Orlando team that has enjoyed excellent offensive balance from Desmond Bane, Paolo Banchero and Tristan da Silva during this winning streak. Bane had 35 points against Cleveland. Banchero posted 25 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. Da Silva added 23 points. Given that kind of scoring balance, Orlando should be able to cover a big number if Washington struggles defensively like it has been.

Lastly, injuries favor Orlando despite the Magic not being at full health. Per the official NBA injury report, Anthony Black was ruled out for Orlando on Wednesday night. Public game previews for this matchup have listed Washington with multiple players dealing with injury concerns heading into this one including Anthony Davis out, Kyshawn George out and Bub Carrington questionable. Orlando is without Franz Wagner and his ankle injury as well, but the market still opened the Magic up at around -15. If injuries were a reason to fade Orlando right now, the betting line would be much higher than that.

Washington is a big spread dog, so there is always backdoor risk, but the most straightforward argument is that the Wizards have shown little ability to compete over their last several games, while Orlando has played well enough to cover this number.

Jim's Play: 516. Magic -15 

Grand Canyon has decent juice to lay here simply because we’re pretty much expecting a toss-up game here. Nevada is not being tasked with putting this game away. The line opened around Grand Canyon -2.5 and currently sits at -3.5.  Moving the game to a neutral floor is probably the biggest reason to jump on Grand Canyon right now. Nevada did defeat GCU 66-60 in overtime back on Jan. 28 at Reno. However, now you’re taking away Nevada’s home-court advantage. If we’re talking about a rematch that came down to one possession after 40 minutes, removing one team’s advantage makes Grand Canyon a much more appealing play.

History between these teams plays a role too. As mentioned before, this game went to OT last time these two played, which means Grand Canyon can at least hang with Nevada even if things aren’t clicking offensively for them. When games are this close, usually laying a short number with the team getting the better venue is the better play.

The only thing that gives me pause here is injury news, as Wilhelm Breidenbach will be out for Grand Canyon. However, the market has already factored that known injury into keeping GCU as favorites, so I think bettors view the Lopes as the slight favorite in this game regardless.

Overall, Grand Canyon’s strongest argument for covering this spot is simple; this game was fairly even when it was in Reno and now moves to a neutral floor while the spread is just one basket. That screams “Lopes can win.” 

Jim's Play:  764. Grand Canyon (MTN West Tourney Game of the Year)

Let’s start with why the Clippers should cover here. This is a very short number at home. Minnesota opened around -1.5 in most books, but saw its line quickly fall to around the Clippers -2. When you price a game this tightly, you are really just asking Los Angeles to win at home. I like that play against the Timberwolves coming off a bad loss.

Minnesota had its own rough outing before this game, losing 120-106 to the Lakers on Tuesday. That was Minnesota’s second straight loss after a five-game winning streak. Anthony Edwards managed just 14 points on 2-for-15 shooting, and the Wolves fell apart in the second half against LA, getting killed in the third quarter 39-23. When a team plays that poorly on one side of the ball against the Lakers and then you bet the other team the next day off one day of rest, recent form absolutely matters.

Speaking of recent form, the Clippers also benefit from their spot in the schedule. Minnesota is currently in the midst of a road trip while Los Angeles hosts this one in Intuit Dome on Wednesday. That game notes link above lists the official game time as 7: 30 p.m. PT for the Clippers, which matters because home floor is valuable in what should only be a one-possession spread.

Minnesota also sports a cleaner injury report, though injuries are not enough to sway this one away from Los Angeles. The NBA’s morning injury report had Minnesota not listed yet, but the Clippers were sitting without Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser. With all three players already ruled out, the Clippers were still getting listed as favorites. That tells me the market thinks the Clippers are the better team even with their injuries.

For me, the biggest factor for the Clippers is the trifecta of home court advantage, a very small spread, and Minnesota playing a back-to-back after two poor results. If the Clippers can play good enough defense to limit Minnesota and get LeBron and Kawhi to shoot something approaching their season averages, this feels like a spot where Los Angeles can cover and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 512. Clippers 

Minnesota can cover here because this is actually on the low side for a team that already beat Rutgers comfortably once this season. The two teams played once during the regular season, with Minnesota winning 80-61. Minnesota opened as about a 4.5 to 5.5-point favorite on the neutral floor in Chicago for Wednesday’s Big Ten tournament game.

Minnesota also has the better records entering this game. Minnesota is 15-16 overall and 8-12 in Big Ten play. Rutgers comes in at 13-18, 6-14. 

Last reason to consider Minnesota: recent form. Minnesota won its last game of the regular season by beating Northwestern 67-66. The Gophers also won four of their last six overall even while playing through injuries. Rutgers has played well in its last couple games too, but Minnesota has looked more consistent over the stretch run and has better Big Ten resume.

Finally, Minnesota’s style of play might allow them to cover this number again. Minnesota already proved it can make Rutgers play defense without being able to get into a rhythm offensively. Our algorithm also says the Gophers limit transition scoring opportunities, turnovers and easy freebies, which is good against a Rutgers offense that relies on those things. If Minnesota can slow down the game again, Rutgers could have trouble scoring efficiently enough to keep the game within two possessions.

As always, injury updates hurt my ability to evaluate this game. Minnesota will be without Jaylen Crocker-Johnson once again because of a foot injury. Minnesota is still laying points, so the market still believes Minnesota is the better side in this game. For me, Minnesota’s better overall record, better recent play and margin of victory in their earlier meeting makes the Gophers players to lay the points.

Jim's Play: 658. Minnesota (Big 10 Conf 2nd Round)

Tulane makes a lot of sense to back here because I just don’t think that number is very big. The line opened Memphis -3.5 and has stayed there, which means the Green Wave just need to play a competitive game on a neutral floor in Birmingham. It’s significant that the teams finished with identical 8-10 AAC records too, and the market even jumped a point toward Tulane from the opener.

The biggest reason to like Tulane may be just how the last meeting went. Back on March 8, Memphis barely escaped with a 96-95 overtime victory against Tulane after the Green Wave erased a nine-point deficit in the final 2:27 of regulation. Tulane even led 40-31 at halftime. This isn’t quite as clear cut of a favorite-underdog battle as the number suggests. If Tulane could almost knock off Memphis three days ago, keeping this one within one or two possessions is realistic.

Plus, familiarity works in Tulane’s favor as well. This is already the third meeting between these two teams this season and conference rematches like this often tighten up because both staffs are so familiar with the opponent’s sets, personnel and tendencies. In tourney games, familiarity usually favors the underdog more than the favorite, especially when the spread is this small. Tulane does not need to outplay Memphis for 40 minutes. It just needs to keep things close, and we’ve already seen it do that.

I may still think Memphis is the more likely winner of this game, but Tulane +3.5 is a number I can get behind because the teams split conference games, the last meeting went to OT, and I expect this neutral-floor rematch to be close once again. This feels like a one-possession game more than a Memphis cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 693. Tulane (American Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

Northwestern has a lot of justification to get covered here as this may be one of the better matchup situations the Wildcats can draw in the Big Ten tournament. Not only did they already take care of business against Penn State 94-73 back on Jan. 29, but Northwestern showed they can run their offense comfortably against this defense.  As soon as one team wins by 21, laying 6 to 6.5 points in the rematch automatically becomes much easier to justify.

Handicapping the records also helps Northwestern’s cause. Both teams suck, yes, but Penn State is even worse than Northwestern. They enter the tournament at 12-19 overall and 3-17 in conference play. Northwestern is 13-18 and 5-15. 

Nick Martinelli and the points Northwestern gets from him is a big factor in the handicap as well. Per Northwestern’s tournament preview, Martinelli broke the school’s single-season scoring record and led the Big Ten in scoring. That allows Northwestern to have the best go-to scorer in this matchup and when playing in conference tournament settings, having the best closer on the floor is huge when all you have to do is win by a couple possessions to cover.

Chicago and the United Center are also Northwestern territory. Yes, this is not the same as playing in front of your home crowd, but it is still a slight edge for a Northwestern team that beat Penn State by 21 back in January.

I just believe Northwestern is the more steady team, has the better scorer, and has already proved they can create real separation against Penn State. Those factors make covering the number in this spot likely.

Jim's Play: Northwestern  (Big 10 1st Round)

I look for the Philadelphia 76ers to get me the win and cover here on Tuesday because Memphis comes in short-handed and playing poorly. Memphis has dropped four in a row and news articles from Monday night’s loss at Brooklyn said Memphis was injury depleted and short on rotation players.

The game also being in Philadelphia helps the Sixers. The game takes place in Philadelphia on Tuesday, March 10 but Memphis is playing it following Monday’s road game in Brooklyn so Memphis not only is short-handed but playing a tough back-to-back.

Philadelphia also can still score with its injuries, at least at home. On March 5, they defeated Utah 106-102 behind 25 points from Tyrese Maxey and good games from Quentin Grimes and Jabari Walker. If Philly can manufacture enough points when the matchup is right, they can do it again here.

Of course, the big caution is that Philadelphia is also missing players. Tyrese Maxey was listed Sunday as expected to miss Monday and Tuesday with a sprained finger and when I looked at the official NBA injury reports Monday night, neither team had turned in its final injury report.

But again, because of the matchup, Philadelphia covering really isn’t about them being completely healthy. Memphis is on a four-game skid, clearly thinner than Philly at the moment, and has to play this game with no rest while the market is only giving them a moderate spread rather than an enormous number. If the Grizzlies are as short-handed as they were on Monday, the Sixers should have a good chance to cover at home.

Jim's Play: 558. 76ers  

I'm going to the Extra board for my Conference Tourney Game of the Year here on Tuesday as Mercyhurst and Long Island meet in the Northeast conference Championship game.  Mercyhurst has is the side I'm looking at here plus the points. The number isn’t astronomical yet at +5.5 to +6.5, and the Lakers already showed they could defeat LIU outright. They defeated the Sharks 91-83 in their last meeting on February 21, so we’re not looking at a situation where LIU mauled Mercyhurst last time out.

In fact, that game illustrated how Mercyhurst can win again. The Lakers forced LIU into turnovers and capitalized on their opponent’s mistakes by scoring 20 points on 13 LIU turnovers during the upset. When playing in a spread, turnovers like those matter because forcing extra possessions is one of the easiest ways for an underdog to keep the score close enough to the line to win without needing an outright victory.

There’s even motivation to consider on Mercyhurst’s side. LIU has already clinched the NEC’s spot in the NCAA tournament thanks to Mercyhurst’s ineligibility while transitioning to Division I, so there isn’t as much fight-to-the-death incentive on the line for the Sharks in this game. LIU will certainly try to win, but part of the motivation is gone and that can allow an underdog to stick around longer than normal.

LIU may be the better team too, but these two have been competitive recently. LIU’s overall record of 23-10 is better than Mercyhurst’s at 17-16, but their all-time series record is tied at 2-2 in the last two seasons. LIU won both of their meetings at home, but Mercyhurst won both games on its home floor as well. Even if LIU is the better team, these two match up closely and haven’t covered much of a gap in the head-to-head over their last few meetings.

LIU is more likely to win this game at home, but Mercyhurst has a definite profile to play this spread based on having already beaten this team once, creating turnover-based offense in that game, and getting enough points to work with while LIU’s NCAA tournament destiny has already been decided.

Jim's Play: 551. Mercyhurst (Northeast Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

ACC 1st Round action tonight has Virginia Tech taking on Wake Forest.  Virginia Tech opened as a 2.5-point favorite on the neutral floor in Charlotte with a total of 136. As of Tuesday night, Virginia Tech sits at 19-12 on the season while Wake Forest is 16-15.

The first game factor that jumps out at me is the regular-season matchup. Virginia Tech dominated Wake Forest 82-63 on Feb. 21. This means the Hokies have already demonstrated that they can keep this team in check defensively and can create separation on offense. If one team already won the regular-season matchup by 19 points, laying a small number becomes far easier to recommend for the rematch.

Virginia Tech also has the edge when it comes to motivation. Several sites have mentioned that Virginia Tech is currently sitting on the NCAA tournament bubble going into the ACC tournament. Therefore, this game essentially becomes a must-win situation for the Hokies. Motivation is important in conference tournament games and the Hokies simply have more to play for than Wake Forest. Also, since Virginia Tech finished with a better record than Wake Forest, you have to believe the fans and players will want to beat them more.

The third reason I like Virginia Tech at a small number has nothing to do with Wake Forest. Instead, Virginia Tech simply doesn’t have any injury concerns that I am aware of. Most pregame reports that cover player injuries mention Virginia Tech forward Amani Hansberry was listed as day-to-day with a leg injury. Hansberry still played in the game so this obviously was not a huge concern for the Hokies. With that being said, you have to think Virginia Tech would have been installed as an underdog had they been without Hansberry or another key player for an extended period of time. Yet here we are with Virginia Tech as a favorite which tells me the oddsmakers view Virginia Tech as the better team regardless.

Putting this all together, I view Virginia Tech as the bet in this game and one that it desperately needs to win. While laying even is never easy, the small number gives Virginia Tech every opportunity to cover. Remember Virginia Tech already showed it can prevent Wake Forest from scoring efficiently and can create offensive separation during their first matchup. Virginia Tech should be able to replicate those outcomes on Tuesday and cover the number by winning by more than one possession.

Jim's Play: 614. Virginia Tech (ACC Conf 1st Round) 

Kansas State’s case to cover here in the Big 12 Conference Tourney 1st round starts with the number itself. BYU opening at 10.5 points on the neutral floor in Kansas City is significant because it’s rather large for a conference tournament game between two Big 12 teams that know each other well. While BYU is the superior squad (21-10 overall, 9-9 Big 12) Kansas State doesn’t need to pull the outright upset to hit the spread. The Wildcats simply need to keep this one close into the closing minutes as double-digit lines can provide value in tournament play when you’re playing the live underdog.

BYU also hasn’t won by nearly this margin since these two teams already met earlier in the season. Kansas State lost the first meeting 83-73 in Manhattan, which is huge because that final score is almost exactly where the number sits this time around. Point being, Kansas State was able to muster up enough offense to show it can hang around this game if it figures out ways to improve in a few key areas,  namely rebounding and late-game execution. When the same two teams play twice in quick succession like this, the team with the newfound knowledge of its opponent usually has the underdog advantage.

Lastly, Kansas State clearly has motivation after finishing the regular season with a record that slots it in as the 15 seed. Meanwhile, BYU does not have to worry about qualifying for the NCAA Tournament and will approach Saturday with the mentality of protecting its seed line or maybe improving a little bit if it routs Kansas State. This matters because as a tournament opener, BYU will likely play to simply win while Kansas State will pour its heart out to keep its season alive. If Kansas ever relaxes, the Wildcats have more opportunity to keep their deficit within 10.5 points.

Perhaps Kansas State’s best angle for covering the spread is the game volatility BYU brings. The Cougars like to push the pace and put up points, and when you have games projecting anywhere from 165.5 to 166.5 points, big underdogs become attractive simply because more possessions means more opportunity for late-game swings and a cover. Kansas State will have opportunities to win if it gets solid scoring from its star players and doesn’t get utterly blown out on the boards.  Take the points with K State.

Jim's Play: 605. Kansas State  (Big 12 Conf 1st Round)

Robert Morris enters Monday’s game with strong credentials to cover against Detroit Mercy because the Colonials have been the better team all season long and have already beaten this slate once. Robert Morris enters 22-10, Detroit Mercy 16-14, and the current market has the Colonials favored by about 4.5 to 5.5 points.

The first reason to side with Robert Morris in this contest stems from head-to-head history. Robert Morris beat Detroit Mercy twice during the regular season and a recent semifinal preview pointed out that Robert Morris dominated both games thanks to second-half runs. That is important in a spread contest like this one because it shows Robert Morris can make better adjustments down the stretch and earn a comfortable win.

Betting on Robert Morris spreads throughout the entire season is another reason they like here. Robert Morris is 20-10 against the spread this season which means they have not only won more games than they’ve lost, they have outperformed market expectations. Detroit Mercy has been extremely competitive against the spread all season long but Robert Morris has been steadier as a betting favorite and has already covered a game against Detroit Mercy.

Robert Morris also just has more trustworthy options on the court from game-to-game. While the semifinal preview mentioned Detroit Mercy will need big performances from Lovejoy and some additional production from young players, Robert Morris is led by veteran guard Prather and forward Goode. Betting on experience in a neutral-floor tournament setting is never wrong and that ability to finish strong in the second half really helps Robert Morris stand out.

I do think Detroit Mercy can stay close early in this game but Robert Morris has far too much working in their favor throughout the season and during these specific playoffs. Detroit Mercy can hang around for a while but Robert Morris should win by multiple possessions and cover the number Monday night.

Jim's Play: 838. Robert Morris -5 

Did you mean Montana against Northern Colorado on Monday, March 9, 2026? Montana vs Campbell doesn't appear on today's schedule. The game is actually Montana's real Big Sky tourney game against Northern Colorado in Boise, with UNC favored by ~3.5 to 4.5.

In my opinion there's still a good angle for Montana to cover that number. First off, this spread is relatively short for a neutral-floor conference tournament game between two teams that went 10-8 in conference play. Both teams had losing records overall at 20-11 UNC and 16-15 Montana, but as I mentioned these two were pretty even in league play, and that matters when you're talking about covering multiple possessions.

Next, this is a rematch of a game last week that went way in favor of Northern Colorado, who won 85-57 on March 2. Sometimes recent blowouts like that develop value on the opposite side in a rematch just a week later. Also keep in mind this is a tournament game so expect things to be closer than the regular season meeting. Montana also has the advantage of playing a game last week while UNC is just coming off a break to open their tournament. That typically allows the dog to play a little sharper early on.

Lastly, there's just a value angle based on where the line sits right now. Many books have Northern Colorado just a -3.5 favorite, and even projection derived covers have this game close to a one-possession game. That means you don't need Montana to win this game straight up to gain an edge. On a spread this small, sometimes just playing it close till the end of the 2nd half is enough value.

Overall, I may still lean UNC as the team more likely to win this game outright but Montana covering the number makes sense because this will be played on a neutral floor in the postseason, both teams had nearly identical conference records, and the spread doesn't have them laying many points so all Montana needs to do is stay close for 40 minutes.

Jim's Play: Take: 844. Montana

I'll look to lay the big points here tonight with the Cleveland Cavs over the Sixers.  The NBA Injury Report has Joel Embiid out, Tyrese Maxey out and Paul George out for Philadelphia, with VJ Edgecombe questionable. The 76ers will be extremely short-handed Monday night when they travel to play the Cavs.

Cleveland is also getting a favorable matchup at an ideal time. Per Reuters, the Cavaliers already defeated the 76ers twice this season. Monday’s contest takes place without large portions of Philadelphia’s offensive core. That becomes significant with the line settling in the Cavaliers -11.5 to -12.5 range because Cleveland doesn’t need to play well to win by 10-plus points against Embiid and company.

A third reason to lean towards Cleveland is the bounce-back game. The Cavs fell to Boston on Sunday, but Donovan Mitchell dropped 30 points and Evan Mobley finished with 24. Cleveland still has the top-end talent to score efficiently, and good teams often play well after stumbling. Philadelphia presents a much easier game than Boston did.

Finally, the back-to-back situation for Philadelphia favors the home team. The 76ers travel to Cleveland without its stars and will have far less room for error on offense. Mitchell and Mobley should be available to control the pace of the game, and if Cleveland defends like an average team, Philadelphia might not score enough to keep them inside a large number.

As Cleveland has the advantage in depth, schedule and injury report, I believe the Cavs are the better side to win by margin. They should be able to pull away by the second half and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: Take: 548. Cavaliers  

Troy has a strong enough play against the spread against Georgia Southern on Monday as the Trojans’ defense and physical style of play will win out. Right now, Troy is laying around 6.5 points as favorites with tipoff Monday night in Pensacola as Sun Belt Tournament championship game. 

Right off the bat, Troy has the advantage of having beaten Georgia Southern this season, overcoming a 63-57 deficit to win 70-63 on Dec. 20. That previous meeting matters because Georgia Southern has not exactly flourished against Troy defensively since then, meaning this game should play pretty similarly with Troy simply needing to lean on its defense instead of staging a shootout.

Defensively is where the numbers line up best for Troy. Georgia Southern scores 81.5 points per game, but Troy allows just 73.5 points per game and goes 17-7 when opponents score less than 81.5 points. If Troy can hold Georgia Southern down even a few points below their average, that gives the favorite room to win by a couple possessions comfortably.

Georgia Southern should not worry too much about Troy scoring though because the Trojans are capable of doing enough damage on that end, too. Troy scores 80.4 points per game which is just north of Georgia Southern’s allowance of 79.8 points per game, and Troy is 12-3 when scoring over 79.8 points per game. Simply playing at their offense’s average puts them in good position to cover.

Georgia Southern does hold the slight edge of playing at home, but this is a tournament game with something on the line. Monday’s contest is the Sun Belt championship, and Troy simply has the better profile entering Monday. OddsShark had Troy at 20-11 and Georgia Southern at 21-15 entering tipoff. In a game of this magnitude, having the best defense often lends itself to the best chance at securing a cover, and Troy has that.

Georgia Southern can score, but Troy is built better to win in this type of pressure game. Georgia Southern already lost to the Trojans this season when Troy was able to keep it from becoming a track meet. There is value betting Troy to win this game by two or three possessions.

Jim's Play:  842. Troy -6.5 

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi deserves some consideration here because both the matchup and the tournament scenario favor the Islanders. The number is getting pushed around -2.5 only.  Corpus Christi finished ahead of New Orleans in the Southland regular-season standings by going 17-14 overall and 13-9 in conference compared to the Privateers’ 15-17 and 12-10.

Perhaps even more importantly, Corpus Christi has the advantage of rest. The Islanders were granted a first-round bye in the conference tournament while New Orleans advanced to Monday by beating Houston Christian 73-60 on Sunday. In a conference tournament, that extra day of rest can make a significant difference in such a close matchup.

Adding more fuel to Corpus Christi’s fire, they won the first meeting between these two teams. They split their regular-season meetings with the Islanders, but beat New Orleans at home 83-69 on December 31 while the only loss came in overtime at New Orleans on February 9, 84-78. Take that as evidence that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi already proved they could beat New Orleans by double digits this season. The only loss was a close game that went into OT.

Even that close loss paints a picture that tilts the field towards Corpus Christi. Texas A&M had advantages in the paint (40-32), fast-break points (21-8), and bench points (25-16). Those categories typically travel well during tournament play as they demonstrate strengths like athleticism, depth, and easy buckets.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi even holds a slight edge over recent form. The Islanders won three of their last four regular-season games to close the year with quality wins over East Texas A&M, Northwestern State, and Southeastern Louisiana while New Orleans lost to Southeastern Louisiana and McNeese just before the tournament began.

My final thought is that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is in a great spot to cover a small number here. They’re the fresher team, finished better in the Southland regular-season standings, have already beaten New Orleans by 14 points, and only need to win by a possession or two to cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 544. Texas AM Corpus (Southland Conf Game of the Year)

anta Clara can easily cover the spread against Pacific because they’ve already played one-sided games twice this season. Broncos won against Tigers 85-69 on January 14 and then again 71-56 on February 4, so they are 2-0 against Pacific this year and have already covered numbers close to or exceeding what the current line is set at. 

Santa Clara also holds a major edge in matchup history. Pacific lost 10 out of their last 11 games against Santa Clara and in both of those wins the Broncos dominated because they are simply the better offensive team. Santa Clara got 18 points from Christian Hammond and 17 points from Allen Graves in January, while in February the Broncos had four players score in double figures. Santa Clara does not need one player to shoot well to win this game.

Pacific also faces some situational disadvantages as well. The Tigers had to battle on Saturday and won 61-58 against Seattle just to get to this point, while Santa Clara came into this tournament as the No. 3 seed and will have fresher legs. Having an advantage in rest vs your opponent in conference tournament games matters. It matters a lot when your favorite also holds the roster advantage and has already solved their opponent twice.

Jim's Play: 820. Santa Clara (West Coast Quarterfinals)

Michigan State is probably one of the best bets to cover the spread this Sunday because the Spartans are visiting Ann Arbor with this number feeling a little too large for a rivalry game between two teams that are still both Big Ten and nationally elite. Michigan State enters at 25-5 overall and 15-4 in Big Ten play while sporting a top-10 KenPom profile and No. 11 NET ranking. Michigan’s numbers aren’t too shabby either at 28-2 overall and 18-1 in league play, but this is a rivalry game. The Wolverines absolutely deserve to be favored in this one, but getting seven or eight additional points against this Spartan team seems like quite a hill to climb at home.

Defense and rebounding are the biggest reason to like the Spartans with the number. Michigan State ranks among the best teams in the country in rebound margin, fast-break production, and adjusted defensive efficiency, and all three of those factors travel very well. Michigan State ranks No. 3 nationally in rebound margin, No. 11 nationally in fast-break points scored, and resides comfortably inside the top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per Michigan State’s own game notes. Against a team that projects to cover easily with a multiple-possession halftime lead, second chance points and defensive stops are all game against an underdog that needs to keep things close to hit against the number.

Speaking of staying close to the Michigan Wolverines, this is actually a matchup that gives Sparty some avenues to do just that. Michigan’s preview linked above even mentions two of them: defensive rebounding and turnovers. Michigan State has one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference, per its preview linked above, while Michigan has struggled all season long when opponents extend possessions. Michigan also ranks last in the Big Ten in turnover rate at 17.1%, according to KenPom, which is the exact kind of weakness you want against a team that plays as disciplined and physical as Tom Izzo’s bunch in a rivalry game. If you need possessions to hang with the best teams in the conference, needing possessions against Michigan State could prove crippling.

The other key player in this game? Jeremy Fears. Fears averages 9.1 assists per game this season and leads the country in total assists. Michigan State’s preview linked above also notes that Fears has scored or assisted on 58.7% of Michigan State’s points when he’s on the floor this season. While you’d obviously rather your team be better than Michigan State offensively in order to win outright, when you’re playing for covers those are the types of guards you want lining up for you. Fears can control tempo, get his team settled down if things get crazy in enemy territory, and provide easy buckets late if the game stays close into the second half. Add him into an otherwise strong Spartans squad, and a backdoor cover looks like a very real outcome even if Michigan takes this one late.

A strong rivalry angle exists here too. Michigan State has won seven of the last 10 meetings overall and owns victories in each of the last two meetings at Crisler Center. Tom Izzo is also 36-22 in his coaching career against Michigan. Michigan may have already clinched a share of the Big Ten title at this point, but this game still carries giant statement value for Michigan State heading into March. This is a situation where pride, familiarity with one another, and just pure toughness is likely to bring both teams up to full strength. The Spartans covering almost double digits with this proud program playing at home just feels like bad matchup value to me.

Jim's Play: 785. Michigan State 

Navy can cover the spread when you consider how much better they’ve been all season long against Boston University. The Midshipmen travel to the Patriot League semifinal as heavy favorites for good reason. Navy is coming into this game at 26-6 overall and 17-1 in conference play. Boston University isn’t close at 16-16 overall and 10-8 in league play. Games at Alumni Hall also heavily favor Navy as they’ve been nearly impossible to beat there and the public sentiment has translated to Navy being favored by -6.5 to -7.5 on the line.

Boston University is a Good Road Dog (team that can cover ATS as underdogs) but Navy has dominated this squad twice already. Navy won both regular season matchups with Boston University this year, beating them by 5 and then again by 8 points. If a favorite sweeps the season series then hosts a rematch during conference tournament play, they are likely able to cover the spread again.

The Midshipmen also have better recent form than their opponent does. Navy is currently on a 10-game winning streak while Boston University has played well of late but hasn’t proven to have the same consistency as Navy has had throughout the whole season. Navy gets after it on defense and was said to own the fourth-best defense in the country during one preview. Defense becomes magnified during conference tournaments when possessions are more valuable and favorites tend to pull away by getting stops.

I think Boston University will hang around and cover the spread at some point but Navy has proven too much to beat with their top defense, home court advantage, and two previous wins over BU this season.

Jim's Play: Take: 534. Navy (Patriot Semifinals)

Detroit has the horses to cover -14 vs Brooklyn on SAT MAR 7, 2026. The matchup just doesn’t feel like it’s even close to be landing at that number right now when looking at both recent form and key personnel. Brooklyn is 15–47 and coming off a 10-game losing streak. Their profile screams “away team that gets worse when the game tightens up.” Meanwhile, Detroit has played like one of the best teams all year (45–16) and has demonstrated that they can build and maintain leads at home by playing excellent defense and converting that into offense rather than needing a clean shooting night from start to finish. It also helps that injuries/rotation trends are pointing towards Cover since the NBA’s official injury report has Cade Cunningham questionable (quad contusion) and Jalen Duren probable while Brooklyn’s is basically nonexistent outside of Egor Demin being out. If Cade is able to play (even if it’s limited), the Pistons will have a consistent playmaker to avoid catastrophic dry spells where opponents can make up significant ground. And who knows, maybe Cade sits this one out entirely. The spread can live in that scenario as well considering how Brooklyn is playing right now; it’s tough for them to play efficient offense for all 4 quarters so they consistently find themselves in positions where a first half they were in control of gets away from them. Detroit widens the gap on the glass, draws more fouls, and converts those misses into stops into points in the 3rd.

Jim's Play: 518. Pistons

The first reason why Wisconsin goes back to Purdue just boils down to experience:  with Purdue winning in Madison on January 6, 89-73. Since then, Wisconsin is 12-4 while Purdue checks in at 10-6 and has lost two of three. Wisconsin’s game notes mentions how the Badgers have had the fourth-best rated offense in the country since that Purdue game, and that matters against a team that hasn’t looked as efficient lately.

Wisconsin also makes sense against a spread that feels a bit on the heavy side for a matchup between two teams hovering next to each other in the standings. Entering Saturday’s game, Wisconsin and Purdue are both 13-6 in Big Ten play. Both teams have something to play for as well with the winner still possessing a path towards a top-four finish in the conference and the coveted triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Because both teams have similar stakes, the game could end up being tighter and more playoff-like. Grabbing more than two possessions with the underdog also makes sense when the teams are this close on paper.

Wisconsin also gets after it on offense and that style travels. The Badgers are playing at a faster pace this season (ranking No. 3 in the Big Ten with 68.9 poss/40), and they average 11 fast-break points per game. Their fast-break points per game ranking was No. 22 in the conference heading into Saturday. When Wisconsin is able to get out and run, it helps their chances of covering because they’re not solely reliant on half-court offense. They can manufacture runs, score easy buckets, and keep pace with Purdue even in a tough road environment.

The Badgers also possess enough shot-making from the lead guard position to hang around. John Blackwell is pouring in 18.1 points per game for UW, and Wisconsin was just outscoring Maryland 78-45 while playing elite defense and getting good scoring from multiple players. Purdue has allowed at least 70 points in seven of its last eight games, making it vulnerable in that regard.

Wisconsin has also been solid against the number as of late. Wisconsin is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games while Purdue is 4-6 ATS in its last 10. History isn’t everything, but it does help reinforce the thought that Wisconsin has been the more dependable team against the spread recently at this price.

Health will be key for both teams, as Nolan Winter is questionable/day-to-day for Wisconsin. If Winter is able to go or is close to 100 percent, that would only help Wisconsin’s cover chances. For now, I’m fine living with Wisconsin and the points simply because the line is sitting at Purdue -8.5 at DraftKings and some other books. Wisconsin doesn’t have to win this game to cover the spread; it just needs to keep it within this range because that’s how it should play with so much on the line for both teams. I’m leaning Purdue way because of homecourt, but it wouldn’t shock me if Wisconsin stays right on Purdue and keeps the spread nice and close.

Jim's Play: Wisconsin (Dog Shocker)

Miami enters this matchup with a superior overall resume at 24-6 (13-4 ACC) compared to Louisville’s 21-9 (10-7). The Hurricanes clinched the No. 3 seed for the ACC Tournament last week, and they are motivated by reaching 25 wins during the regular season, which would set a program record as per local coverage of the game. We should also not underestimate the importance of playing at the Watsco Center. Miami has been particularly strong at home all season long.

This game also projects well based on previous meetings because Louisville has struggled to duplicate its success away from home. One of the reports leading up to the game highlights how the Cardinals are just 3-7 on the road this season. That’s a troubling trend to have against one of the ACC’s best home-court teams. Louisville might have more name recognition, but their resume on the road says they are susceptible to upsets away from Louisville, Ky.

Miami’s current form is another reason to side with them in this spot. The Hurricanes have won 7 of their last 8 contests and have already claimed victories over Boston College and SMU recently. Streakiness matters less in March than any other month, but it still matters when you have already secured a double bye and are looking to raise your NCAA Tournament seed.

I also like Miami due to personnel advantages they hold over Louisville. Multiple articles previewing this game mentioned Miami being led by Malik Reneau and Tre Donaldson. Another note found in some previews was how Louisville will be without point guard Mikel Brown Jr. If Louisville does not have their starting point guard against a team that can physically dominate them, that alters the game significantly. Louisville likes to shoot the ball and score at will, but Miami can force them into a slower, more physical game that they may not be accustomed to playing.

Since Miami has the benefit of playing on their home floor, a better ACC record, improved late-season form, and Louisville’s own inconsistency on the road, I’m betting on them to win this game. Louisville is clearly going to be able to score points, so I would not be surprised if this game was competitive for long stretches. However, Miami just feels like the more stable option and a team that can go into a hostile environment and win by a field goal to cover.

Jim's Play: 646. Miami Fla (Game of the Day)

I'm looking at taking the big dog here today.  The number seems inflated based on records and venue more than matchup value itself. Villanova boasts a 23-7 record overall and 14-5 mark in Big East play, while Xavier is sitting at 14-16 and 6-13. Based on records alone, the market has pushed this game to Villanova -11.5 to -12.5. However, these two teams just squared off on Feb. 17 and Villanova needed overtime to win 92-89. When Xavier was able to hang with the Wildcats two weeks ago, it showed it could keep pace scoring-wise, exchange blows for 40 minutes, and stay within a large number even when Villanova is firing on all cylinders.

Reason number one to like Xavier plus points is that they have already demonstrated the ability to attack this Villanova defense. Carroll went off for 28 points and 10 rebounds and Jovan Milicevic pitched in 20 points and nine boards the last time these two met. Xavier controlled the paint, generated quality offense, stayed on Villanova’s heels late, and tied the game at 81 heading to OT. That is significant for a rematch with Xavier as the dog by double digits because it displayed last time they did not have to outplay Villanova for four full periods to cover, they just have to stay in the game, and we know they can do that already.

Another angle to attack this line is situational. Yes, Villanova is at home in the Finneran Pavilion trying to wrap up the regular season on a high note. But playing with house money and laying points on Senior Day can cut both ways. Emotions will help Villanova win, but it might not help them fully cover. If the Wildcats take care of business, Xavier can still keep it close enough to slip under the radar. Again, that’s especially true when this game has been pushed into the low teens by the line. According to the official NCAA schedule, this is a noon ET tip in Villanova, but keep in mind the broader context is Villanova is trying to close out the regular season strong and Xavier is fighting for its postseason life in the Big East tournament.

Villanova should win this game, but Xavier has several solid arguments to contend with a spread this high. We know from experience the matchup was close once already, the number gets stretched out to double digits, and Xavier has shown it can manufacture enough offense to hang with the Wildcats. Best bet would be on Xavier + points, particularly if Carroll is ruled game-time ready.

Jim's Play: Take: 613. Xavier

Missouri can legitimately cover the spread against Arkansas this Saturday, March 7, 2026, for a couple reasons. This game opened with Arkansas favored by around 3 points, but most books have swung the game towards the Tigers by game day, listing Missouri as laying about 1.5 to 2.5 points at Mizzou Arena. Respect for the home team despite Arkansas having the overall better record. Missouri has plenty to play for this game too, needing a win to guarantee itself at worst a No. 5 seed in the SEC Tournament while also keeping alive the path to the conference’s 4-seed. It may not be officially Senior Day yet with guard Tre Williams having one game remaining after Saturday, but there’s still real motivation to get it done on Missouri’s home floor.

Venue is the biggest angle. The Tigers lost the first meeting between these teams 94-86 in Fayetteville two weekends ago, but this contest is in Columbia. Teams at home have dominated this back-and-forth rivalry as of late, Missouri’s own game notes saying that the home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Missouri won 83-65 at Mizzou Arena in last year’s matchup there as well. Both of those home wins happened while Arkansas was still title contention teams, so this bet isn’t totally reliant on Arkansas regressing offensively. It also helps that the first meeting was much closer than the final score for long stretches, even on Arkansas’ floor.

Speaking of Arkansas offense, Razorbacks star guard Darius Acuff Jr. has been listed as doubtful/out for this game by multiple sources. If healthy enough to play, it’s hard to bet against Arkansas outright. If limited or ruled out, that’s a huge blow to the Razorbacks’ offense. Arkansas’ own game preview acknowledged just how huge Acuff has been for them this season, particularly his usage rate as scorer and playmaker during SEC play. Plugging in another ball-handler and distributor into the starting lineup just won’t be as easy as filling minutes.

Missouri just needs to keep Arkansas under its Finals winning percentage to cash this spread. Protect the ball better than it did against Oklahoma, take better advantage of Missouri Arena’s offensive environment, and harness enough motivation to avoid losing two in a row on Senior Day. Arkansas should keep things close, but line and location are on Missouri’s side with the game opening around a one-possession spread, plus uncertainty around Acuff’s availability giving doubt as to how high the Razorbacks can potentially score.

Jim's Play: 602. Missouri 

I turn to the Big East conference today as Seton Hall hosts St Johns. This is one of those Big East spots where the spread is asking the road favorite to be perfect in a hostile building. The market has St. John’s laying roughly 4.5 to 5.5 points with a total around 136.5–137.5, which basically screams “tight, physical game.” That kind of number plays into Seton Hall’s hands because the Pirates’ identity is defense and making you work deep into the shot clock. In conference-only production, Seton Hall has been one of the better defensive teams in the league (allowing roughly mid-60s per game in Big East play) and has a positive scoring and rebounding margin, the exact profile you want when you’re catching points at home.

The “why it stays close” script is pretty straightforward. St. John’s is coming in with title stakes (a win locks at least a share of the Big East crown), and those games can get tight early, especially on the road when the home team is treating it like their Super Bowl. Seton Hall also has a recent proof-of-concept: the first meeting was a 65-60 St. John’s win, and Seton Hall actually led at halftime, which tells you their defense and pace can keep the Red Storm from turning this into the kind of track meet that creates separation. Finally, this matchup has historically been competitive in Newark; Seton Hall’s own series history shows they’ve been strong at home in this rivalry over time, and when you combine that with a low total and a one-to-two run swing deciding everything, taking the points becomes very live.

Jim's Play: 846. Seton Hall (Big East Game of the Year)

Charlotte covering starts with recent trends as to how both teams have played against the spread. The Hornets are scorching at the window right now with a 9-0 ATS run and have also won 5-0 ATS in their last five at home. Miami, on the other hand, has been unable to cover at home recently: 1-5 ATS in their last six road trips against Charlotte, while Charlotte owns the 5-1 mark ATS in the last six meetings at home. Playing against the number in your building and owning those kinds of numbers is always important.

Depth is also an interesting story here. Per the NBA’s official injury report for game-day, Charlotte is coping with end-of-bench/G-League type losses along with Tidjane Salaun sidelined due to a calf injury. Miami’s report had not yet been submitted at the time of that report coming out, but several injury/tracker sites have shown Miami missing/playing through rotation players ahead of this matchup (Simone Fontecchio and Nikola Jovic have been listed as out for a lot of previews). Those kinds of injuries tend to show up late in games when you need contributions from the perimeter.

Charlotte has played confident basketball as of late, they’ve been steady at home with the number and Miami has struggled in this building to get any kind of cushion. If Charlotte plays physical, controls the boards and doesn’t turn the ball over live-ball to give Miami momentum, they will stay close for four quarters and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 502. Hornets (Southeast Div Game of the Month)

Iowa is a live cover against Michigan on Thursday because the matchup and the spot both work in the Hawkeyes’ favor, especially if you’re getting around +8.5 to +9.5 points. Michigan is the better team, but this sets up like a classic “win but don’t margin” game: the Wolverines have already clinched the Big Ten title, and this road trip functions more like a tune-up than a must-have, which can show up as flatter defensive urgency once they get a lead. Add in that Michigan is also playing without L.J. Cason (out for the season), which chips away at guard depth and ball-handling in a road environment where every empty possession matters.

From a style standpoint, Iowa’s slower tempo is exactly what an underdog wants when trying to cover a big number. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for a superior team to create separation, and it keeps the game in that “trade baskets, stay within 6–10” range deep into the second half. Iowa also has the home-court edge at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and even in a season where they’ve been inconsistent, that building tends to help role players shoot and defend with more confidence, which is often the difference between losing by 6 and losing by 14.

The cover path is pretty straightforward: Iowa controls pace, avoids long scoring droughts, and makes Michigan execute in the half court instead of giving up transition runs. If the Hawkeyes can keep the first 10 minutes competitive and stay out of serious foul trouble, they don’t need to “outplay” Michigan for 40 minutes - they just need to prevent the one knockout stretch. With a spread hovering near nine, that’s a very realistic script for Iowa to hang around and cash the ticket even if Michigan still gets the win.

Jim's Play: 768. Iowa  (Big 10 Game of the Year)