LA has a chance to come out with a win Monday in game 2 of the NLCS. After losing to Milwaukee on Sunday by a score of 2-1. One advantage is that they will have Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitching against Brewers rookie Logan Henderson. Yamamoto has pitched very well during the playoffs this year he gave up only one run in 7 innings against Atlanta in his previous start. Last year in the NLCS he pitched a complete game against the Brewers. With a postseason ERA of 2.14 and the Dodgers have won 10 out of 11 games that Yamamoto has started during the playoffs they should have a good shot at taking game 2.

LA should also have a higher offensive output than what they produced on Sunday. Although they only scored 1 run they were able to get 7 hits and had multiple men on base. They just weren't able to capitalize on those situations and ended up hitting into 3 double plays. The Dodgers have too many hitters to not produce over a couple games Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez. Logan Henderson has pitched great for Milwaukee this postseason but throwing against this lineup in a must win NLCS game will be tough.

Milwaukee used 4 and 2/3 innings out of their bullpen to win on Sunday. Many of their bullpen options have been taxed as well during the postseason. If the Dodgers can wear down Henderson in 5 or 6 innings they may be able to take advantage of that. With Yamamoto being able to go deep into the game as well LA should be favored to win this game. I think we will see LA take an more aggressive approach and take care of business to tie the series.

Jim's Pick: LA Dodgers 

I think Milwaukee will be able to grab a win in game 1 of the NLCS tonight. With the Dodgers coming into Milwaukee and Misiorowski starting for the Brewers it's a great opportunity to take this one. Milwaukee came out of the regular season as the best team in baseball going 103-59 and Jacob Misiorowski helped them get there. The righty has thrown a ball this year with a 1.80 ERA. At home he has been even better with a 1.17 ERA in his last 13 games. LA will be starting Tarik Skubal so they have plenty of players that can hurt him. Whether it's through home runs or singles Milwaukee will have players stepping up. Chourio, Contreras and Yelich are all going to play a big role in this game. Also Ohtani has not been hitting well during the playoffs. He only has 2 hits in 13 at bats this series. The Milwaukee bullpen has been incredible as well allowing only 1 earned run in 19 innings against San Diego. I think we'll see Misiorowski pitch the Dodgers scoreless for the first few innings and Milwaukee will get some key runs on the board. Then their bullpen can close it out. I'm going to back Milwaukee to win this game.

Jim's Play: BREWERS

The Cleveland Guardians enter Saturday's game 5 with great momentum against the Chicago White Sox. After losing the first 2 games at home Cleveland has taken 2 in a row on the road. First they won game 3 by 9 runs then won game 4 by a score of 9-5. They will now go back to Progressive Field to try and clinch the series and move on to the ALCS.

With Gavin Williams starting for Cleveland they should have the edge. He had a great regular season going with 248 k's. Which was the most in the AL. He also struck out 11 batters in game 2 over 5 innings. He went Thursday but only pitched 18 pitches. So we can expect him to start Saturday and he will be throwing many whiffs which can be very helpful in a game 5 situation.

Sean Burke will be starting for Chicago and he has done very well against the Guardians this year. But as we know the Guardians bats have woken up recently. They have scored 18 runs over the last 2 games. Jose Ramirez has been a big factor with 5 rbi over the last 2 games. As well as Patrick Bailey and Steven Kwan helping out.

Chicago's bullpen will be another advantage for the Guardians. The White Sox walked 17 batters over games 3 and 4. Their closer Grant Taylor couldn't even get an out in the 6th when the Guardians scored 6 runs. The Guardians will continue to pound the ball and take advantage of runners being on base. This could once again be their advantage on Saturday.

I think the Guardians have all the momentum coming home after winning 2 games on the road. With their pitching and bats picking up I believe they will win this game 5. Expect Gavin Williams to have another good outing and Jose Ramirez to continue to drive in runs. Take the Guardians here on Saturday to close out this series and move on to the ALCS.

Jim's Play: Guardians

The San Diego Padres look to keep their season alive in Game 3 of the NLDS here on Tuesday in this Best of Five Series. Milwaukee leads the series 2-0, but each game at Miller Park was decided by one run: 3-2 Milwaukee and then 4-3 Milwaukee. San Diego gets to come home to Petco Park where the Padres dominated Milwaukee in a three-game series during the regular season, winning all three games.

The starting pitching matchup also favors San Diego. Nick Pivetta will take the mound for the Padres after he put up a 1.45 ERA in four starts during September. Since returning from his elbow injury that required a procedure, Pivetta has looked excellent. His last appearance came against the Dodgers late in the season where he threw 4.2 scoreless innings.

Facing him is Milwaukee’s Dustin May who went 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA this season. He has actually been excellent against San Diego this year, pitching to a 1.23 ERA across three appearances, so the Padres will need to counter him somehow. Overall, though, his inconsistency gives Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and the rest of San Diego’s lineup a much better chance to produce offense than they did against Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff in Games 1 and 2.

Expect San Diego’s top bullpen options to be available as well after Monday’s rest day. Game 2 reliever Mason Miller looked completely lost, but outside of him, the Padres’ bullpen is one of San Diego’s greatest strengths. Heading back home should also allow Padres manager Craig Stammen to be more aggressive with his bullpen in a must-win game.

Games 1 and 2 both could have easily swung the other way. I think San Diego takes advantage of Pivetta pitching well, being back at Petco and Milwaukee having to tap into the shaky parts of its rotation and extend the series.

Jim’s Play: 936. Padres

The Dodgers are again positioned to take Game 2 on Sunday and lead the NLDS 2-0. Once again, the difference may be pitching. Los Angeles plans to send Blake Snell to the mound, while Atlanta is likely to employ another bullpen game with an opener barring a late Chris Sale miracle. Snell posted a record of 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 55 strikeouts across 42.2 innings this year.

That is an unfavorable matchup for Atlanta's offense, which hit around a 91 wRC+ against southpaws this season. The Dodgers exploited it by starting Tarik Skubal on Saturday, and Snell presented Atlanta with another high-K lefty starter on Sunday.

Atlanta's pitching situation is more concerning than Los Angeles'. Dylan Dodd served as Atlanta's opener Saturday and threw three hitless innings, but Dodgers hitters found the middle of the bullpen. Víctor Mederos and AJ Smith-Shawver combined to allow three home runs as Los Angeles took a 5-1 lead before the Braves got a pair in the 9th to lose 3-5. Atlanta also used six pitchers in Thursday's Wild Card game, then traveled west for Game 1. Asking your bullpen to eat another starter's innings is going to put a severe strain on your depth yet again.

Dodgers hitters showed what can happen in Game 1. Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy all went deep, and navigating through a lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and several other dangerous hitters is tough enough when you're not constantly worrying about matchups and changing pitchers for nine innings.

Atlanta will no doubt have a lot of baseball left and could certainly stay in this game, particularly if their higher-leverage relievers are fresh, but Los Angeles holds a clear edge in this pitching matchup. Snell should provide quality innings for the Dodgers while Atlanta may again be forced to string together 27 outs against one of the league's best offenses.

Jim’s Play: 928. Dodgers

There are many reasons why I think the Tampa Bay Rays will win game 1 against the New York Yankees on Saturday.

First off is Drew Rasmussen pitching for the Rays vs Gerrit Cole. Rasmussen went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA this past season and has done very well against the New York Yankees with a 1.81 ERA in 11 games against them. Cole is still a formidable pitcher but went 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA since coming back from Tommy John surgery.

The Rays have the home field advantage as well. Tampa Bay was 55-26 at home this season and the New York Yankees only went 2-5 at Tampa Bay. They have also taken 7 out of 13 games against each other this season. This series will most likely be low scoring and know your park could play a factor.

Tampa Bay can play to their strengths as well against New York. With players like Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Chandler Simpson they can hit for contact, run the bases and have power. The Rays have been able to wear down teams by not hitting as many home runs. This could be an advantage against Cole if Tampa Bay can get him to throw more pitches.

They also have a great bullpen to finish off games if they can get ahead. Bryan Baker had 41 saves this season and the Rays went 25-14 in one run games. With Rasmussen's success against the Yankees, the Rays being at home and having the advantage in one run games they should be able to take game 1 at home.

Jim's Play: 920. Rays

There are many reasons why I think Philadelphia will win today's Game 3 against the Braves, but having multiple pitchers available is what stands out the most to me. Aaron Nola will start, and he has been really good in the second half of the year with a 3.12 ERA over his last 15 starts. 

Philadelphia can throw All-Stars at this one, with Zack Wheeler on short rest, Jesus Luzardo stating he can come out of the bullpen, and Andrew Painter, who is also available after throwing 3 scoreless innings in Game 2 on Wednesday. The only question is whether closer Jhoan Duran will be able to pitch.

Atlanta does not have as many options for their pitching. I assume Grant Holmes will pitch most of the game, maybe with a lefty to start, whether it be Ray Kerr or Brent Suter. If that happens, they may have to face Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and the middle of the order with many pitchers. They will also be using their closer, Raisel Iglesias, and other key bullpen pieces, Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee, who have already pitched in both games.

Philadelphia will have some good momentum coming into Game 3 as well. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both hit home runs in the 8th inning to tie the game, and then Alec Bohm hit a home run in the 10th to take the win. Atlanta had many chances in that game and left 11 men on base. Ronald Acuna Jr. is currently 0-for-6 in this series, but Michael Harris II is 4-for-8.

Atlanta can win this game. They won 94 games and have home-field advantage. MLB.com has stated that the Atlanta lineup matches up better against right-handers, so if Aaron Nola starts, that could play into their favor. He also has a 4.50 ERA over his last 3 starts against Atlanta.

I predict the Phillies will win this game 4-3. I would give it about a 55-45 chance for Philadelphia to win. As I stated before, they can shorten the game by using Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, and maybe even Andrew Painter, while Atlanta does not have that option.

Jim’s play: Phillies

The New York Yankees can take care of business against Boston in game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series on Wednesday. After winning game 1 by 9 runs, the Yankees will have plenty of momentum going into Wednesday. Not only did they get a great offensive game from Ben Rice, they also had Cam Schlittler throw 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Which gave them a chance to not use many of their high leverage relievers. This leaves them with plenty of bullpen available for game 2.

The Yankees will have Max Fried take the ball in game 2. Fried finished the regular season with a 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 20 starts. Giving the Yankees another good starter to go against a Boston team that was struck out cold in game 1 and have had trouble producing offense over the last stretch of the season.

The Red Sox will have Sonny Gray start for them in game 2. He had a very good season going 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA. So expect this game to be much more competitive then the box score from game 1. However, the Yankees had more home runs over the course of the season. They hit 223 home runs, Boston only had 163. And also had the better team ERA. Although the Yankees will be missing Aaron Judge for this wild card series with a calf injury, they proved in game 1 that they can hit without him. Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, George Lombard Jr. and others can produce.

If they can keep Max Fried on the mound, they have plenty of bullpen, and play at home they should be able to take care of business in game 2 on Wednesday.

Jim’s Play: 906. Yankees

I’ll take New York over Baltimore on Friday even with Brendan Beck getting the start for the Yankees.

Opposing Beck is Trevor Rogers, who is 10-11 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Rogers has been solid at times this season, allowing just three runs over eight innings in his last start versus Milwaukee, but Yankee Stadium is a tough place for a left-handed pitcher to match up against New York’s potent right-field power.

It’s a small sample size, but Beck has struggled this season in his limited major-league time with an 8.22 ERA over 7⅔ innings. However, he was excellent at Triple-A this season, going 9-2 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 133 strikeouts in 121 innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. If he can replicate that kind of stuff in the big leagues, he should be able to at least provide some competitive innings for New York despite his disastrous ERA.

Still, the Yankees just have too much overall talent and pitching depth. New York has smashed 221 homers to Baltimore’s 194 and owns a much better team ERA at 3.21 to Baltimore’s 4.08.

If Beck can limit Baltimore early, New York’s deeper lineup and bullpen should prove too much for the Orioles.

Note: This is game one of the Doubleheader that was moved from the weekend to Friday due to possible bad weather. 

Jim’s Play: 984. Yankees Game 1 (AL East Game of the Month)

I’ll be taking the Milwaukee Brewers here on Thursday as they go for win 100 and the best record in the NL. Byrse Wilson has pitched well enough for the Brewers when healthy this season, owning a 3.67 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 34.1 innings. He does not need to be great if the Brewers lineup allows him to work through five innings, because Milwaukee’s bullpen is deep and has been one of the best storylines of their incredible season.

Opposing him is Andrew Painter, who comes into Thursday at 3-9 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Painter has struggled to limit baserunners this season, and surrendered four runs over 5.1 innings in his last start against the Mets. Milwaukee should have success there with a lineup that can manufacture runs with speed, quality contact and some timely power.

In addition, Milwaukee simply has the better pitching depth. They recently used six relievers combined to secure a shutout against Baltimore and know how to properly deploy several dependable arms in the middle and late innings. Philadelphia’s bullpen has had its ups and downs in September and most recently gave up 10 runs to the Mets.

If Milwaukee’s bats can get three or four runs on Painter early, I like Wilson and the Brewers bullpen to hold on for the win. Milwaukee’s starting pitching stats and bullpen depth make for a better overall recipe for success in my eyes.

Jim’s Play: 907. Brewers

Take the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday as Milwaukee has the advantage in starting pitching and has been the superior team throughout the season.

The Brewers will start Logan Henderson who is 10-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 107 strikeouts on the year. Philadelphia will start Aaron Nola who is 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA. This gives Milwaukee the advantage on the mound as long as Henderson prevents Philadelphia’s power hitters from making quick contact.

Milwaukee is also riding a great season at 98-59 heading into Wednesday after suffering a 6-4 defeat at the hands of Philadelphia on Tuesday. Prior to Tuesday’s loss, Milwaukee had won 5 straight games and were coming off a franchise record setting win streak. Milwaukee has also been incredible on the road this year at 46-33.

Milwaukee proved they could manufacture runs against great pitching on Tuesday, scoring 4 runs against Zack Wheeler and Philadelphia’s bullpen. Wednesday should present an easier matchup against Nola, and Milwaukee has speed and enough depth in their lineup to manufacture runs without having to slug the ball over the fence with every at bat.

Logan Henderson has the advantage on the mound and Milwaukee has one of the best records in baseball with an excellent run differential. I like Milwaukee to rebound on Wednesday and split the series.

Jim’s Play: 953. Brewers (NL Game of the Month)

I’ll be taking the Minnesota Twins in this Monday night game as Minnesota enters play with better recent form coming into the series opener.

The Twins pummeled the Angels 8-0 on Sunday, rolling up 13 hits and posting three-hit games from Alan Roden, Josh Bell and Brooks Lee. Roden had a four RBI day, while Minnesota’s pitching was sharp, allowing only two hits to Los Angeles.

The Giants aren’t rolling in like fashion. San Francisco was swept by the Dodgers in its last series and managed just two hits in Sunday’s 3-1 loss. San Francisco falls to 64-92 on the year, while Minnesota has a season record of 73-83 as we enter the finals regular season games.

Minnesota will send Bailey Ober to the mound versus Blake Tidwell from San Francisco. Ober isn't afraid to throw strikes, limits free passes and pitches deep into games, giving the Twins reliable starting-pitching. Tidwell has had some struggles, and I like Minnesota's improved offense to make runs early.

Minnesota’s biggest advantage may just be its recent offense. The Twins wrapped up their series against the Angels batting well, while the Giants come home having struggled mightily at the plate in Los Angeles. If Minnesota can score four or five runs it could be enough against a Giants offense that can’t seem to get it together.

Jim’s Play: 955. Twins 

I like the Twins tol beat the Angels on Friday. Minnesota will have the better pitching matchup going into the game.  Connor Prielipp will be starting for the Twins. He has a record of 5-7 and 5.24 ERA this season. However, he has been pitching pretty well of late. Holding the opposing team to 3 runs or fewer in his past 4 starts and has a 3.66 ERA over those games. The Angels have not done too well against left hand pitchers this year. They are 16-30 against them. 

Grayson Rodriguez will be starting for the Angels. He is coming into this game with a record of 4-7 and a 6.10 ERA with a WHIP of 1.56. So the Twins should have an easy time driving the ball early and can attack the Angels bullpen who have struggled all year to hold on to leads.

Minnesota has also done well against the Angels this season as well. Taking 2 out of 3 games when the 2 teams played at the Target Field earlier this year. The Angels have been struggling against teams from the AL Central. Going 7-20 against them, whereas the Twins are 14-10 against the AL West.

Since Prielipp has been pitching well of late and Rodriguez can't seem to keep baserunners and runs off the board I will give the edge to Minnesota on Friday.

Jim’s Play: 919. Twins

I want to back the Minnesota Twins against the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday as Minnesota’s starting pitching advantage is huge here.

Taj Bradley (11-6, 3.81 ERA, 190 K’s in 165.1 innings) is slated to start for Minnesota while Walbert Urena gets the nod for Los Angeles. Bradley pitched six scoreless innings with one hit allowed in his last outing against Cleveland while rookie sensation Urena (2.88 ERA) allowed nine hits and four runs in six innings during his last start.

Minnesota will also have some momentum on their side after defeating the Yankees, 5-4, on Wednesday in 13 innings. Luke Keaschall went deep three times and the Twins found a way to win against one of the best teams in baseball.

Los Angeles won a couple of games against Seattle earlier this week but are just 58-93 overall and have struggled mightily with consistency, defense and strikeouts. I like Minnesota if Bradley pitches like he has recently and they can force Los Angeles to use their bullpen in this game.

Jim’s Play: 967. Twins

The St. Louis Cardinals are a great spot to beat the San Francisco Giants on Monday night. The series moves back to Busch Stadium and San Francisco comes into this game on three straight losses. The Cardinals are 74-76 entering Monday after defeating the White Sox 3-1 on Sunday. The Giants have dropped to 62-88 after being swept by San Diego this weekend.

The projected starting pitchers for this game are Quinn Mathews (St. Louis) and Landen Roupp (San Francisco). Mathews is coming off of back-to-back strong starts. He allowed one run on five innings pitched against the Dodgers last week and gave up just two runs over six innings in his previous start against these Giants on Tuesday. Both runs came on solo homers and Mathews settled in after allowing those two bombs.

Roupp could be tougher on St. Louis, as he owns a 4.00 ERA and kept the Cardinals scoreless on six innings last week. But this will be the second time he faces this lineup in six days. The Cardinals saw his pitch mix and everything he did in that 2-1 loss. They didn’t necessarily hit him well, only scoring one run, but St. Louis continually put men on base. The Cardinals went just 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and stranded 10 runners. They left many opportunities on the table. 

San Francisco also has a depleted lineup. Rafael Devers is lost for the season and that’s 37 home runs and 98 RBIs out of their lineup. Plus the Giants also have several other key injuries on their roster right now. San Francisco also lost three straight to San Diego this weekend and was just 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position on Sunday.

This feels like a prime spot for St. Louis to get revenge after San Francisco swept them last week. Mathews has been pitching well over his last two starts, they have home-field advantage, they get a second look at Roupp, and the Giants will be without their biggest power threat. I like St. Louis to play better offensively this time around and win the opener at Busch Stadium.

Jim’s Play:  906. Cardinals

The Chicago Cubs playing at home gives them the best chance to win this game on Monday. Chicago has been significantly better at Wrigley Field, and the Cubs will have opportunities to manufacture offense against Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez.

Lopez can be beat up when he loses command, and Chicago’s lineup has enough patience and power to force him to pound the zone deep in counts. Furthermore, the Cubs have several big time swingers in their lineup capable of altering the game with one swing. Overall, Chicago projects to have the deeper lineup in this game.

Chicago should also have an advantage when it comes to playing match-ups late in this game. They’ll be able to tax Atlanta’s bullpen if they’re able to work Lopez out of the game by the middle innings. At home, the Cubs should also have a better chance of managing their pitching matchups down the stretch.

Chicago has a lot to play for here towards the end of the season. They should come into this game with some sense of urgency, and with home-field advantage and a deeper lineup, I like Chicago to manufacture enough offense to win against Atlanta on Monday.

Jim’s Play: 904. Cubs

I like the Brewers in this rivalry contest with the Chicago Cubs. And the main reason is that the largest edge here belongs to Logan Henderson over Kevin Gausman. Henderson is 9-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP on the season and struck out Chicago for two runs across seven innings the last time these pitchers squared off just last week. He’s been one of Milwaukee’s most consistent starters all year long.

Gausman actually matched up nicely against the Brewers in that first meeting, yielding just one run across seven innings, but Milwaukee gets a second crack at him in under a week’s time. This is a high-contact Brewers lineup after all and Jackson Chourio is tearing it up right now, going 4-For-5 on Tuesday with his 22nd homerun of the season.

The late innings also favor Milwaukee as we sit here today. Chicago has blown leads in both games of this series already, including a 3-1 lead in the top of the ninth on Tuesday, while Milwaukee continues to scratch and claw runs against the Cubs bullpen. This could again be a close game and who you trust in the late innings matters.

Henderson's strong track record of consistency this season, plus home field advantage and Milwaukee simply carrying all the momentum in this series, I’ll take the Brewers to close out the sweep.

Jim’s Play: 958. Brewers

I’m taking the Atlanta Braves to beat the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday. The Braves will roll with opener AJ Smith-Shawver, who brings some question marks into this outing. Atlanta has been outstanding at home this season, entering this series 24 games over .500 at Truist Park.

Tampa Bay rolls with Freddy Peralta, who has actually pitched much better of late but still owns a 4.96 ERA on the season. Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley-led lineup possesses enough power to capitalize off of mistakes in what should be a pitchers’ duel, especially at home. Peralta has performed well over his last couple outings, so I anticipate Atlanta attacking the bullpen in this matchup rather than blasting Peralta early. Smith-Shawver’s 7.13 ERA is scary, but Atlanta’s bullpen gives me enough comfort to ignore that number.

Atlanta’s relievers enter this matchup with an excellent 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while the Rays recently placed Garrett Cleavinger and Manuel Rodríguez on the injured list to open up their last couple games. Tampa Bay also won’t have starter Shane McClanahan on Tuesday, so Atlanta holds a significant advantage in the late innings if Smith-Shawver can keep the Rays within striking distance for four or five innings. 

Atlanta was also on the wrong end of a frustrating 1-0 score against Philadelphia, recording just two hits against Jesus Luzardo. I’m playing the bounce-back game at home against a Rays pitching staff already missing a handful of weapons due to injury.

Jim’s Play: 926. Braves

I'm backing the Detroit Tigers to take down the Minnesota Twins Tuesday night and the starting-pitching match-up is the largest reason why. Detroit has Drew Anderson coming into the game sporting a 3.73 ERA while Minnesota will counter with Dean Kremer who comes into the game with a 5.81 ERA. Detroit is currently getting prices around -142 on the money line because of that starting advantage. 

Anderson has been particularly solid since moving permanently into Detroit’s rotation, posting a 2.57 ERA over his last six starts. He also faced Minnesota in his previous outing and allowed just two runs, one earned, over 5 2/3 innings while giving up only three hits.

Kremer has struggled much more, and Detroit has already had success against him. In that same recent matchup, the Tigers scored four runs on six hits in four innings against Kremer. Minnesota is also just 2-6 in games Kremer has started as a money-line underdog this season.

Detroit’s offense is showing signs of life as well. The Tigers beat Minnesota 5-4 Monday, with Riley Greene collecting three hits and homering for the third straight game. Greene has been especially hot lately, while Kevin McGonigle also went deep in the series opener. Detroit’s bullpen then delivered three scoreless innings to protect the lead.

With Anderson pitching well, Kremer struggling and Detroit’s middle of the order heating up, I think the Tigers have the better overall setup at home.

Jim’s Play:  914. Tigers (AL Central Game of the Week)

I’m taking the Baltimore Orioles to beat the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday. The starting-pitching matchup favors Baltimore and presents them with a small but meaningful edge in this matchup. Brandon Young (9-3, 3.42 ERA) gets the start for Baltimore against Tanner Bibee (5-15, 4.06 ERA), who takes the bump for Cleveland. 

Young hasn’t allowed a run in his last 13 1/3  innings and turned in a strong start against Boston in his last outing, tossing 6 2/3  innings of Orioles’ baseball. Baltimore’s pitching staff has thrived as of late, boasting a 2.59 ERA since the start of September.

On the other side, Bibee has been incredibly shaky lately. He allowed five runs and five walks against Toronto in his most recent start and hasn’t often received run support from Cleveland. The Guardians’ offense has largely disappointed this year, ranking near the bottom of MLB in both wRC+ and wOBA entering play on Tuesday.

The Orioles are also coming off a win against Cleveland, taking Monday’s game 6-4. Coby Mayo hit two homers in that game and Samuel Basallo and Rece Hinds each had two hits, helping Baltimore snap its six-game losing streak. Baltimore should have enough offense if Mayo and the middle of their lineup can keep producing against Bibee.

Baltimore wins thanks to better starting pitching, Cleveland’s lack of offense and playing at home after winning Game 1 for me.

Jim’s Play: 912. Orioles

I'm taking the Blue Jays to win this one on Saturday. While the Max Scherzer-Seth Lugo starting matchup may seem like an iffy play for Toronto on paper considering Scherzer has a 6.16 ERA, you have to think his latest start was somewhat of a turning point. Scherzer held Seattle shut out for seven innings while allowing only one hit and striking out a season-high 10 batters in Toronto's 7-0 win.

On the other hand, Lugo has gone in the complete opposite direction as of late. He did have success against Toronto back on Aug. 25, surrendering one run over five innings, but he's been terrible otherwise. The right-hander has a 7.18 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last seven starts and Cleveland battered him for nine runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings his most recent outing.

Toronto's lineup should also have a chip on their shoulder as they just faced Lugo less than two weeks ago. They should have a fresh eye on video when it comes to his pitch mix and game approach. The Blue Jays come into Saturday on a roll as they crushed Kansas City 9-2 on Friday night with contributions from across the lineup (Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, George Springer, etc.). Toronto has now won six of its last seven contests.

Toronto getting back to .500 at 71-71 to stay within a half-game of the final AL Wild Card spot should also provide some motivation while Kansas City fell to 63-79 with their loss on Friday. This is must-win playoff-type mode for every game the Blue Jays play from here on out.

Kansas City does have some good bats in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, but if Scherzer pitches anywhere near how he did against Seattle, I like Toronto’s ceiling in this game much more. Plus, Lugo has been anything but dependable lately, so the Blue Jays have a chance to shorten this game by getting to the Kansas City bullpen early.

Jim's Play: 969. Blue Jays

I like the Cleveland Guardians to beat the Detroit Tigers on Saturday, starting with a strong pitching advantage. Cleveland sends Parker Messick, who is 11-8 with a 2.46 ERA and 161 strikeouts, against Detroit's Framber Valdez, who enters 8-10 with a 4.36 ERA.

Messick has been especially sharp lately. He has allowed only six earned runs over his last five starts, and in his most recent outing he held Kansas City to one run over six innings in an 11-1 Cleveland win. He also faced Detroit on August 13 and allowed only two runs and three hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Valdez has been much less consistent. He gave up three runs over six innings against the Dodgers in his last start, but his recent stretch includes a 5.71 ERA over three starts, and Cleveland already scored four runs against him in 5 1/3 innings on August 12.

Momentum also favors Cleveland. The Guardians swept Friday's doubleheader against Detroit, winning 7-6 and 4-3, both in walk-off fashion. Cleveland is now 72-70, while Detroit has dropped to 64-77. The Guardians also entered this series having dominated the season matchup, and Detroit’s offense and bullpen have ranked near the bottom of MLB over the past month.

Cleveland also has much more at stake. The Guardians currently hold the final American League Wild Card position, while Detroit's postseason chances are fading. With Messick pitching at an elite level, Cleveland at home, and the Guardians carrying the momentum from Friday’s sweep, I like them to make it three straight over the Tigers.

Jim's Play: 964. Guardians 

I'll take the St. Louis Cardinals to win this matchup Friday night at Coors Field. The biggest advantage in my eyes is in the starting pitching matchup as St. Louis will send Andre Pallante to the mound to face Ryan Feltner. Feltner has been awful this season posting a 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those are exactly the type of numbers that will lead to you getting lit up at Coors Field.

St. Louis should be able to capitalize on scoring chances against a Colorado pitching staff that has underperformed all season. Rockies pitchers rank dead last in MLB with a 5.42 team ERA. They own a 5.75 ERA at home and have allowed over six runs per game at Coors Field all season. The biggest weakness in their staff is their inability to strike guys out. They carry the lowest strikeout rate in MLB which plays right into the Cardinals hands as their lineup can make consistent contact and manufacture offense with gaps balls.

Cardinals also happen to be playing their best baseball of the season right now. They just went up to Los Angeles and took two out of three from the Dodgers.  They lost Thursday's game 3-2 on a walk-off hit in the bottom of the ninth by Teo Hernandez. St. Louis also owns a 36-33 record on the road compared to Colorado's 29-39 mark at home.

Another reason I like St. Louis is because Colorado simply has more to play for. The Cardinals still have a shot at a Wild Card birth in the National League. Colorado on the other hand comes in at 54-86 and has been eliminated from playoff contention for some time. I like St. Louis to score runs throughout this game as Feltner is prone to being lit up at Coors and the Rockies bullpen will likely have to work multiple innings in this hitter's paradise.

Jim's Play: 909. Cardinals

I'm going with the Kansas City Royals to win on Friday night. The starting-pitching matchup definitely gives the Royals the largest advantage in this spot. Kansas City will send Daniel Lynch IV to the hill against Jameson Taillon and the Blue Jays.

Lynch is currently sitting at 4-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while Toronto counters with Taillon, who has gone 2-6 with a 5.68 ERA.

On top of his season numbers, Lynch has also been lights out at Kauffman Stadium this season. He has posted a 2.34 home ERA and has allowed just 21 hits across 34 2/3 innings pitched at home this season. He has even yet to allow a home run at Kauffman Stadium this year. Kansas City has eased his usage back since re-inserting him into the rotation, but the Royals have won each of his last three starts against Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland.

Toronto's biggest concern has to be Taillon, who has struggled mightily this season. Not only has he put up terrible numbers overall, but this will very likely be his first start since August 10 after landing on the injured list with right forearm tendinitis. Taillon has pitched to a 5.68 ERA and hasn't gone deeper than four innings in any of his last three starts. Toronto may have to lean heavily on its bullpen if Taillon struggles like he has in the past.

Kansas City's offense is also rounding into form again. After splitting their first two games against Miami, the Royals offense exploded for seven runs on Thursday night. Carter Jensen went yard and drove in three runs on three hits while Jac Caglianone had two hits and drove in two runs as well. That young lineup mixed in with Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino gives Kansas City enough bats to score some runs off of a pitcher coming off of an arm injury.

Kansas City was also one of the hottest teams in baseball heading into the Miami series, winning 12 of their last 13 games to end August. With Lynch starting at home and Taillon boasting both a 5.68 ERA and questionable workload, I like Kansas City’s chances to win this game on Friday.

Jim's Play: 924. Royals

like the Milwaukee Brewers to win Thursday's NL Central series finale against the Chicago Cubs. The biggest edge comes on the mound where Logan Henderson will go up against Kevin Gausman. Henderson is 9-2 with a 2.48 ERA and he has been really good lately. He owns a 2.23 ERA over his last five starts and in his last outing he allowed one hit and one run over seven innings with seven strikeouts and no walks against Texas.

Gausman has not been nearly as consistent this season. He owns a 4.52 ERA and has a 5.14 ERA over his last five starts. Cincinnati plated five runs on two homers off of Gausman in only five innings during his most recent start. That inexperience against an offense that collected 27 hits and 18 runs over the last two games of this series is my biggest concern with Chicago on Thursday.

Speaking of offense, I also like Milwaukee to finish this series strong after this offense finally came alive over their last two games. The Brewers got blown up 17-3 on Monday but answered with back-to-back 9-4 and 9-5 victories. Milwaukee crushed Chicago 14-6 on Wednesday as Jackson Chourio collected four hits including a homer. William Contreras, Christian Yelich, Joey Ortiz and Cooper Pratt also produced offensively for Milwaukee.

I also think Milwaukee has a slight advantage in pitching depth. Milwaukee enters Thursday with a 3.48 team ERA compared to Chicago's 4.21. Chicago's bullpen has struggled throughout this series and is one reason why the Cubs have now lost seven games since August 1 after holding a multi-run lead. Late innings are an issue for Chicago and that's another reason why I'm taking Milwaukee on Thursday.

The Brewers hold the best record in baseball at 87-53 and have extended their NL Central lead over Chicago to nine games. Milwaukee is winning with pitching and hitting lately as Henderson has been great this month and the Brewers offense has produced 18 runs over their last two games. I like Milwaukee to close this series out with another win.

Jim's Play: 953. Brewers (NL Central Game of the Week)

I’m wagering Houston Astros against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. I think Houston has the edge on the mound with Hayden Wesneski making his second start of the season.

Wesneski owns a 4-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP entering Wednesday, and he has pitched extremely well over his last two outings. Wesneski pitched five scoreless innings against Oakland before shutting down the Yankees on three hits and one run over five innings.

Houston's offense also helps me feel good about betting the Astros. Yordan Alvarez is slashing .317/.392/.629 with 37 home runs and 94 RBIs, and Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker, Cam Smith and everyone else in the Houston lineup gives the team plenty of ways to produce runs. Houston showed off that depth in their 6-3 win over Chicago on Monday, getting key extra-base hits from Smith and Nelson Velazquez.

Chicago might start Davis Martin (be sure to make this an action wager) , who owns a 4.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP entering Wednesday, but MLB lists their starter as TBD. Martin has also been terrible of late before going on a rehab assignment. He allowed nine runs against Boston and yielded four runs over five innings against Houston earlier in July.

Late in games, I also prefer Houston. Houston's bullpen kept Chicago to one run over the final 4 1/3 innings of Monday's game, and Houston has proven late-game relievers that can hold Chicago scoreless late. Chicago has also recently underperformed in clutch spots, slashing just .130/.190/.220 with runners in scoring position over their last three games.

No matter who does start for the White Sox, I'm taking the Astros to win this one on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 922. Astros (Action)

I'm taking the Tigers to right the ship on Wednesday against the Twins. Detroit's starting pitching gives it the best shot of any Detroit starter from taking this series.

Drew Anderson will take the mound for Detroit against Dean Kremer and Anderson has been much steadier than Kremer of late. Anderson has a 3.87 ERA and has allowed just seven earned runs over his last five starts. He was excellent against Los Angeles in his last start, tossing 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball on just four hits.

Kremer, meanwhile, comes in with a 5.60 ERA and was lit up by Chicago over his last start, surrendering six runs (five earned) in four innings. In fact, Kremer has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last five outings. Kremer also got rocked by Detroit earlier this season, allowing eight runs on eight hits in just four innings during a 14-0 loss on July 28.

Detroit certainly has to respond in a big way after Minnesota outscored them 26-3 in Games 1 and 2 of this series. But a game against Kremer and the Tigers' pitching staff lines up as a classic bounce-back spot. Minnesota has mashed recently, but it feels like a lot to expect that kind of production again against Anderson, who has generally kept his team in games.

Detroit's power bats should also have a better opportunity against Kremer. Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson and Detroit’s other younger hitters should see more quality pitches than they did in Games 1 and 2, but Detroit doesn't necessarily need to light it up if Anderson can keep runs off the board.

Detroit wins because Anderson's 3.87 ERA vastly outmatches Kremer’s 5.60 ERA, and because Detroit has already scored eight runs off of Kremer this season.

Jim's Play: 919. Tigers 

I like Tampa Bay on Wednesday as the Rays have home field, a deeper lineup and a pitching match-up that should allow their best bats to do damage against the Mets.

Griffin Jax is listed as the starting pitcher for Tampa Bay on the latest MLB linesheet. He’ll take on Justin Hagenman, who is making his first major-league start of the season in 2026 after spending some time on the sidelines with a rib injury. The Mets are using Hagenman in part to buy their younger starters an extra day of rest. He's getting an uphill battle against one of baseball's best offenses.

On the season, Tampa Bay is 83-55 and 47-24 at home. New York fell below .500 at 62-77 overall and are just 30-38 on the road. Tampa also owns a +57 run differential while New York sits at -56. That spread should widen once the games hit the books.

Even beyond Tampa's bullpen advantage, their lineup is coming alive. Tampa Bay won 6-2 over New York Tuesday on 13 hits. Yandy Diaz hit a homer and doubled. Junior Caminero extended his hit streak to 15 games and Victor Mesa Jr. returned from the injured list going 3-for-4. All of this offensive production gives Tampa another weapon in what entered the series as the AL's best OPS.

Jax might not be able to go deep into the game considering that he's just now coming off elbow discomfort, but Tampa Bay doesn't mind mixing and matching pitchers. The Rays bullpen should also be available after Freddy Peralta threw six strong innings Tuesday.

New York still boasts the dangerous bats of Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, but their offense hasn’t been as consistent as Tampa's and now they'll be facing a Rays team that is fighting for first place in the AL East while also throwing an inexperienced and recently injured starter on the mound.

Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line as their offense has the biggest edge against Hagenman and New York's bullpen.

Jim's Play: 928. Rays

Boston is my play here on Wednesday as the starting pitching battle gives me the most value. Patrick Sandoval likely will take the hill for Boston against Bryce Miller, who has regressed badly. Miller is 0-6 with a 7.19 ERA in his last eight starts, which Seattle also lost. Seattle just moved Miller to the bullpen recently, but Emerson Hancock's injury landed him back in the rotation.

Boston's Patrick Sandoval comes into this game with unimpressive numbers of his own (1-3, 4.20 ERA). But he pitched well in his last start, allowing one run on three hits and striking out seven over 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees. If Sandoval can provide five or six innings of quality pitching, Boston will likely hand the ball over to a bullpen that leads MLB with a 3.60 team ERA.

Boston also has offensive value against Miller, who has been ineffective recently. Boston scored nine runs on Monday and then 15 total over the first two games before losing 9-6 on Tuesday. Trevor Story, Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela have proven they can drive in runs against Seattle pitching.

Seattle was able to explode for runs on Tuesday, but the Mariners offense has underwhelmed over the course of the season. Seattle ranks near the bottom of MLB with an average of 3.9 runs per game, while Boston scores closer to 4.5 RPG. 

Miller's recent performance against Sandoval's recent success is what swung it for me. If Boston can catch Miller early in this game, I like Boston to rebound and win the series.

JIm's Play: 916. Red Sox 

I like the Astros to stay hot after a successful road trip, as their starting pitching matchup and home-field advantage gives Houston a solid chance to win here.

Houston will send Peter Lambert to the mound. Lambert (8-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) recovered from an outing where he allowed seven runs against the Angels by permitting only two earned runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees in his last start. Lambert has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings.

Chicago will start left-handed pitcher Anthony Kay. This is a favorable matchup for Houston as his career statistics show he’s struggled away from the White Sox’ home field. Kay has a 4.89 ERA on the road compared to 3.48 at home. His ERA climbs to 4.75 in night games as well. In Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, Kay allowed four runs, six hits and two homers in just 4 2/3 innings.

Plus, Houston landed on its feet after Sunday’s 6-3 win over the Mets ended their 4-2 road trip through New York. Jeremy Pena hit a homer, LaMonte Wade Jr. supplied the go-ahead two-run blast and Houston’s bullpen closed it out with Josh Hader converting his 21st save in 21 chances.

The White Sox have played well lately but Minnesota held them to one run in Sunday’s 5-1 loss. Against Lambert and Houston’s late-inning bullpen options, the White Sox might struggle to score enough runs if the Astros take the early lead.

I like Houston more because of Kay’s struggles on the road/night, Lambert’s superior season numbers compared to Kay, home field and Houston’s bullpen options late in games.

Jim's Play: 918. Astros (MLB Game of the Month)

I'm playing  the Chicago Cubs to win on Sunday despite Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns. Burns is great overall at 14-3 with a 2.77 ERA, but he wasn't sharp in his last outing, surrendering five runs and nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings against San Francisco. Burns is also on the verge of setting a career-high in workload, so the Reds may not let him go deep Sunday.

Opposing Burns is Shota Imanaga and the Cubs southpaw has a 3.78 ERA while pitching his best baseball over his last few starts before being knocked out early in Seattle. Going into that start, Imanaga had a 2.67 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his previous 12 outings, so Chicago has a chance to keep Cincinnati at bay.

Chicago's offense is really what has me leaning toward them though. The Cubs pounded out 17 runs and 19 hits Saturday as Pete Crow-Armstrong hit three home runs and Carson Kelly, Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman were also all deep. Cincinnati is losing games at this point having dropped 10 of its last 15, while Chicago is still alive in the playoff hunt and is 39-28 at home at Wrigley Field.

Burns might suppress Chicago early, but the Cubs have a deeper lineup and more talent throughout their batting order. Chicago also has the advantage if it can get Burns out of the game early and face a Cincinnati pitching staff that has a 4.55 team ERA.

Jim's Play: 958. Cubs 

I will take the Twins on Saturday because I like their starting matchup against Chicago’s Erick Fedde. Bailey Ober gets the nod for Minnesota, and the starter has been quite effective against Chicago over his career.

Ober is 7-4 with a 4.49 ERA entering Saturday’s matchup but impressed in his last outing by limiting San Diego to one run on four hits and five innings. Ober is 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA over 15 career starts against Chicago.

Fedde sports a nice 4.18 ERA on the surface, but he has been deployed in many different roles lately and hasn’t worked deep into games consistently as a traditional starter would. Right-handed hitters have torched Fedde this season, posting an .840 OPS against him. Minnesota will have right-handed bats like Brooks Lee and Ryan Jeffers to take advantage.

Minnesota put up seven runs despite losing 7-4 on Friday. They answered an early 4-0 deficit quickly with homers from Brooks Lee and Kody Clemens. The Twins racked up eight total hits against Luis Castillo in just four innings of work. Top prospect Walker Jenkins made his MLB debut Friday and collected his first career hit. Minnesota will have another potent bat in their lineup for the stretch drive.

Chicago had to go to Grant Taylor after only 2 2/3 innings on Friday and ultimately closer Bryan Hudson to finish the game. If Minnesota can work Fedde quickly on Saturday, Chicago might not have their full bullpen ready to go.

Chicago White Sox starting pitching is formidable but Fedde is no Lucchesi or Lopez.

The betting odds have Minnesota as a slight home favorite, and I think that’s where this line will stay. Minnesota’s offense should generate enough against Fedde and Chicago’s bullpen, and Ober should have success like Minnesota did on Friday keeping Chicago’s offense in check.

Jim's Play: MLB : 916. Twins

I like the Minnesota twins to bounce back here on Wednesday against the Oakland A's after dropping Tuesday's contest 4-2.  Oakland starter JT Ginn has pitched better than his 4.26 ERA indicates, but he has also been easier to hit lately.

Ginn gave up four runs on eight hits to Texas and followed that up by allowing three runs over five innings to Houston in his last two starts. Minnesota has offensive threats throughout their lineup with Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Josh Bell and Ryan Jeffers so they should be able to string together some hits and force Ginn into some trouble.

Minnesota starter Connor Prielipp is the only concern after allowing 14 earned runs over his last two starts, but Oakland is still a bottom-of-the-barrel team that hasn’t fared much better at home this year. Even with Tuesday’s victory, the Athletics are still sitting around 20-39 at home and struggle to go out and win multiple games in a row.

I also like Minnesota in this bounce-back spot with the series on the line. Minnesota is still in the hunt for a spot in the American League Wild Card race while Oakland has no shot at competing having already fallen under .500 on the season. If Prielipp can navigate through the Athletics lineup for five innings I like Minnesota’s lineup to give them the best chance of taking over this game.

Jim's Play: 973. Twins

In a season where offense hasn’t come easy for many teams in Major League Baseball, I still like the San Diego Padres to win Wednesday’s finale against Pittsburgh after losing the first two games of this series.

The Padres have scored only two runs over the first 21 innings of this series, but San Diego still sports an offense that went into this series winners of 21-of-its-last-28 games overall.

San Diego also gets the pitching matchup in this spot, as right-hander Randy Vasquez gets the start against Bubba Chandler.

Vasquez hasn’t turned in a quality start during his last four outings, but the Padres starter has only allowed eight earned runs over his last four outings. He threw seven innings of two-hit, two-run baseball against Minnesota during his last start and tossed six shutout innings against Arizona earlier this month.

Chandler sports a 4.38 ERA on the year, and left-handed hitters have fared much better against him this season than right-handed hitters. Padres hitters like Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets could do damage after San Diego was held to two runs or less by Pirates pitchers Braxton Ashcraft and Paul Skenes during games one and two of this series.

The Padres are another team I like once this game moves to the bullpens, too. San Diego entered this series with the MLB’s second-best bullpen ERA at 3.25 and boasts one of baseball’s deepest late-inning pitching staffs.

Pittsburgh has played tight, low-scoring affairs in San Diego during each of the first two games of this series, and it took multiple relievers for the Pirates to survive Monday’s 12-inning opener. Pittsburgh’s bullpen may need to make multiple appearances in Wednesday’s finale if San Diego’s offense wakes up.

I don’t expect San Diego’s offense to disappear for a third straight game after losing 3-2 (in 12 innings) on Monday and 1-0 on Tuesday to a Pittsburgh team that San Diego took two-of-three from entering Wednesday.

The Padres pitching matchup, solid bullpen advantage and a bounce-back spot in Petco Park lead me to take take San Diego on Wednesday.

Jim's Play : 956. Padres

I’m taking the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels. This pitching matchup isn’t quite as lopsided as the two teams’ records would indicate. Cleveland has several edges here, however, coming in with momentum, the superior pitching staff overall and especially deep into the bullpens.

There are three reasons why I like Cleveland to win this game, and the first is starting pitcher Gavin Williams. The Guardians right-hander enters Tuesday at 12-7 with a 3.72 ERA. But he looked really good in his last start against the San Francisco Giants, allowing two runs over 5 2/3 innings while striking out 11. Cleveland should be able to miss some bats against an Angels offense that has struggled mightily all season.

The Angels enter this series ranking 28th in MLB in team weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Cleveland is no powerhouse offense either, but the Guardians have been dramatically better than Los Angeles on the pitching side of things. Cleveland ranks sixth in MLB among starting pitchers in ERA, and 10th among relievers. Cleveland has more avenues to victory in what should be a lower-scoring game.

Angel’s starter Walbert Urena has actually been excellent himself this season at 8-9 with a 2.80 ERA. So I don’t necessarily expect Cleveland to completely bash Urena and go up early. But there is one stat on Urena that stands out to me and can be attacked: his walks.

Urena has issued 59 free passes over 112+ innings pitched, good for nearly 4.7 walks per nine innings. I’d like to see Cleveland attack that control issue, get guys on base without having to string hits together and force Los Angeles to burn through its bullpen earlier than it’d like to. This is where guys like Steven Kwan, Jose Ramírez, Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe come into play.

Kwan has excelled at getting on base all season long and should continue to do so. Ramírez, of course, gives Cleveland that high upside middle-of-the-order bat who can change a game instantly with one swing of the bat. Adell, a former Angel, also gives Cleveland a power threat against his former team.

Cleveland also won Monday’s opener of this series 4-2, lifting them to five straight wins. Kwan went back-to-back games with two hits Monday, Austin Hedges homered and Cleveland’s pitching staff kept the Angels offense in check. Cleveland scored just two runs, but Williams didn’t allow more than that, so again the Guardians bullpen should help settle things late.

The Guardians bullpen is where I think Cleveland holds the biggest edge. Cade Smith earned his 34th save on Monday, and Los Angeles simply does not have a bullpen with which to match Cleveland late in games. If Williams can pitch into the sixth inning with his team tied or ahead, I’ll gladly take Cleveland’s bullpen over Los Angeles’ in a game decided in the final three innings.

Jim's Play: 921. Guardians

One of my favorite angles in this matchup is simple: location. Kansas City has won eight straight games heading into Toronto, but six of those victories have come at home. The Royals just finished an impressive 7-0 homestand. Unfortunately for Kansas City, they now have to take that success on the road, where they have been abysmal. The Royals have a 22-44 record away from Kauffman Stadium this season.

The starting pitching matchup helps Toronto more than Seth Lugo’s impressive name recognition may indicate. He enters this game with a 5-7 record and 4.71 ERA. Those numbers jump considerably against right-handed hitters on the road. Lugo has a 5.63 ERA in 12 road starts this season, surrendering 76 hits and 40 earned runs in just 64 innings pitched. He has also been awful over his last 15 starts, pitching to a 5.24 ERA. That spells opportunity for a Toronto lineup that should be able to manufacture runs with enough contact instead of exclusively relying on the home run.

Digging a little deeper, Lugo hasn’t exactly been sharp in August. He allowed five runs in five innings against Colorado, three runs against the Cubs and then was trashed by the Angels. Most recently, he allowed five earned runs over six innings against Oakland. This matters because Toronto has big-league hitters who can work pitchers deep into an inning and capitalize when starters like Lugo fall behind in the count.

Toronto also gets Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back in the lineup after serving time on the concussion injured list. Guerrero returned to action on Saturday against the Yankees and went right hit 2- for-5 with a run scored. Throw Guerrero back into a lineup with hitters like Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and Kazuma Okamoto and the Blue Jays have much more depth than they did while Guerrero was out. Toronto flashed what this lineup can do earlier this month when it pounded out 17 hits in a 10-5 victory over Tampa Bay. Each of the team’s starting hitters recorded at least one hit.

Obviously there’s cause for concern with Max Scherzer. His 1-6 record and 7.40 ERA are obviously not numbers you want to blindly bet against, and Tampa Bay cracked Scherzer for seven runs in four innings during his last start. However, there are some reasons to believe that start could end up being more of an outlier than the beginning of another implosion. Scherzer allowed only four earned runs across his previous three starts, posting one run over six innings against St. Louis and one run over five innings against Boston. If Toronto can get something similar out of Scherzer, this pitching matchup becomes very interesting.

I also like Toronto to win after the starting pitching exits. Kansas City’s bullpen has been one of the worst aspects of its game over the course of the full season. The Royals recently optioned Lucas Erceg to the minor leagues after he posted a 6.23 ERA with six blown saves. Kansas City has been struggling to find arms that can fit into dependable late inning roles. The bullpen has actually performed better during Kansas City’s current winning streak, but Toronto can expose that group if it can get Lugo out of the game after five or six innings.

Toronto’s path to victory is pretty cut and dry: get Scherzer through five innings without any major damage, attack Lugo’s horrendous road statistics and force Kansas City to lean on its bullpen. Kansas City has a better team than its season record indicates, but its struggles on the road are enough for me to fade its current winning streak. 

If you’re looking for a high-scoring affair, wait until Wednesday in Kansas City, when the Royals host Toronto’s bullpen. As for Tuesday, I would take Toronto on the money line. Lugo’s 5.63 ERA away from home, Kansas City’s 22-44 road record, Guerrero’s return from IL and the Blue Jays ability to attack Kansas City’s bullpen are four good reasons why I believe Toronto can end Kansas City’s winning streak Tuesday night.

Jim's Play: 918. Blue Jays

I’m taking the Rays to beat the Tigers on Monday night, as the starting pitching matchup, bullpen edge and Detroit’s current slide all point to Tampa Bay prevailing.

Up front, Tampa Bay has Drew Rasmussen who is 13-5 with a 3.02 ERA and stellar 0.95 WHIP on the mound. In his last 15 starts, Rasmussen is 9-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and has won his last three decisions. Toronto took him deep last time out, but before that matchup, he allowed only two earned runs over 12 innings combined against Oakland and Seattle.

Detroit counters with Framber Valdez who is nearly a run worse with an 8-8 record and 4.35 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Valdez has issued nine walks and allowed eight earned runs over his last 11 1/3 innings, so control issues are an issue against an offensive-minded Rays team that features patient hitters such as Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero who already has 35 homers.

On top of those factors, the Tigers and Rays are trending in opposite directions. Tampa Bay moved to 77-53 (best in the American League) with a 3-1 win over Baltimore on Sunday, where Nick Martinez worked six scoreless innings and the Rays bullpen held on for the victory, with Bryan Baker picking up his MLB-leading 37th save. Detroit was swept by Kansas City this weekend and has now lost five straight games, dropping to 61-69.

Detroit also will be without Riley Greene for this game because of a hamstring strain, costing the Tigers one of their best power bats.

Starting pitching matchup, bullpen advantage and Detroit’s slump all have me taking the Rays to win this series opener in Detroit on Monday night.

Jim's Play: 959. Rays

I’ll take Detroit to snap Kansas City’s seven-game winning streak on Sunday. Sunday’s game gives Detroit a much easier matchup on the pitching side than the first two games of this series.

The Tigers will go with a bullpen game led by prospect Andrew Sears in bulk relief. Sears is an interesting weapon to lean on considering how dominant he’s been at the minor-league level. Sears owns a 2.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and has allowed a .192 batting average against over 58 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has also thrown 9 2/3 scoreless innings in each of his first two Triple-A starts this season and should have enough swing-and-miss stuff to give Kansas City fits.

Kansas City counters with Daniel Lynch IV, who has put together an impressive season thus far with a 2.83 ERA, but Lynch is still in the process of transitioning from bullpen roles into a rotation role. Lynch hasn’t been able to work deep into games consistently this season and lasted just four innings in his most recent start against Oakland. Kansas City could find themselves leaning heavily on the bullpen again on Sunday.

This is key because Detroit has faced two much tougher assignments in the rotation this series, starting with Noah Cameron on Friday followed by Michael Wacha on Saturday. Wacha held Detroit to one run on six hits over seven innings Saturday in Kansas City’s 3-1 win. Detroit simply faces a downgrade in starting pitching talent on Sunday.

Detroit also has more power over the course of a full season than Kansas City does as well. The Tigers have 151 home runs entering Sunday’s game compared to Kansas City’s total of 127. Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson and the rest of this up-and-coming Tigers lineup can hang bombs if they get out of the Royals’ best starters.

Jim's Play: 915. Tigers

I will take the Toronto Blues on Sunday against the New York Yankees. The starting pitching matchup alone gives Toronto enough of a reason to enter this one with a good shot to win. Jose Soriano arrives at 10-6 with a 3.29 ERA, but he has been markedly better since signing with the Blue Jays, posting closer to a 2.76 ERA while with Toronto. Soriano also has enjoyed some success against New York, pitching seven scoreless innings the last time out against the Yankees.

Carlos Rodon counters for New York on Sunday. Rodon is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA, but this will only be his second outing since returning from the IL. Rodon lasted just four innings in his return, tossing only 66 pitches against Baltimore, so don’t be surprised if the Yankees find themselves relying on their bullpen again on Sunday. That will be particularly true after Saturday’s game, when Ryan Weathers departed after only 3 1/3 innings due to forearm discomfort and New York was forced to use relievers to hold on for the win.

Toronto’s bats are also rolling into this contest. The Blue Jays are currently riding an eight-win streak over their last 12 games. George Springer, Charles McAdoo and Nathan Lukes each recorded RBI hits on Saturday while Lukes tacked on a homer.

Toronto also got Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back from the concussion IL Saturday. Guerrero has continued to pass all concussion tests and provides Toronto with yet another powerful bat in the middle of their lineup for the finale.

New York will once again be without Giancarlo Stanton, who has another calf strain and is now at risk of missing the rest of the season.

Take Toronto on Sunday while Soriano is pitching well, Rodon is still likely easing his way back into things and New York’s bullpen worked overtime Saturday.

Jim's Play: 913. Blue Jays 

I’m taking Baltimore to beat Tampa Bay on Sunday and sweep the Rays in three games. The Orioles have Tampa Bay’s number recently and they’ll roll into the finale with momentum on their side as well as a starter who can keep them in the game.

The Orioles get Shane Baz on Sunday. Baz has a less than stellar 4-13 record, but he has pitched well throughout the season. The right-hander has a 4.02 ERA with 132 strikeouts. He was outstanding against the Yankees his last time out, striking out a season-high 10 over 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball while allowing only four hits. Two of the three runs scored after Baz exited.

Nick Martinez counters for Tampa Bay on Sunday. Martinez is 12-4 with a 3.05 ERA but he was rocked by Toronto on Tuesday, allowing six runs on nine hits in only 3 2/3 innings of work. Baltimore has plenty of offense that can punish Martinez if he is even slightly out of sync mechanically.

Plus, Baltimore has all the momentum coming out of this series. The Orioles won Friday 5-3 and topped that off with a wild 3-2 extra-inning win Saturday. Baltimore has now won two games in a row while Tampa Bay has lost three straight and seven of its last nine overall.

It also helps that Baltimore’s offense has players stepping up across the lineup. Pete Alonso is on a 14-game hitting streak, Samuel Basallo hit the game-tying two-run blast on Saturday and Dylan Beavers added the game-winning double in the 10th. Baltimore has a variety of ways to score runs if Martinez is even decent on Sunday.

As long as Baz gives the Orioles six solid innings to work with, they should have another chance to hand the game over to a bullpen that succeeded on Saturday and let their power bats take over late.

Baz struck out 10 his last time out while Martinez allowed six runs on Tuesday. Baltimore won the first two games of this series and Tampa Bay has lost seven of nine overall. I like Baltimore to knock off Tampa Bay on Sunday and complete the three-game sweep.

Jim's Play: 912. Orioles

Toronto gets Dylan Cease to face the Yankees on Saturday. He enters with a record of 7-5 and a 2.42 ERA with 201 strikeouts.   Cease has already proven he has this Yankees lineup beat. He just went up against New York six days ago and surrendered two runs on two hits across 6 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts. That ability to miss bats will play nicely in Yankee Stadium, where limiting baserunners will take away their home-run capability. 

Ryan Weathers counters for New York and he’s been stellar as of late, posting a 3.56 ERA on the season. He limited Toronto to one run on seven hits across 7 1/3 innings last Sunday, so Toronto won’t have it easy with Cease on the mound. However, Toronto’s offense should receive a nice boost with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being activated from the concussion injured list Saturday. 

The Yankees will be without Aaron Judge again and they placed third baseman Ryan McMahon on the injured list Friday with a thumb sprain. Both of those injuries hurt an already mediocre lineup that scored three runs on Friday and still found a way to win 3-1. 

Toronto also took two of three from New York just last weekend. They beat New York 4-1 Saturday before falling 4-3 in extra innings to nearly snap their skid. I like Toronto to get another win here. 

Toronto has Dylan Cease pitching at an ace level and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should be returning off the IL. New York will be without some key bats in Aaron Judge and Ryan McMahon, so I like Toronto to bounce back and get a win Saturday afternoon. 

Jim's Play: 961. Blue Jays 

I like the Arizona Diamondbacks to win as my Feist’s National League Game of the Week on Friday against the Cincinnati Reds. The starting pitching battle tilts in Arizona’s favor, they hold the home field advantage and Cincinnati owns a shaky bullpen.

Arizona gets the best pitcher in Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Rodriguez allowed just five hits and one earned run over six innings his last time out against Atlanta and has been Arizona’s most consistent starter down the stretch. Cincinnati’s pitcher will be Nick Lodolo, who owns a 4.52 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Lodolo has a chance to be effective but he allowed 1.51 home runs per nine innings entering play on Friday, which is a huge red flag at Chase Field. Arizona has the power to make Lodolo pay if he makes mistakes with hitters like Nolan Arenado, Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno. Arenado homered twice with four RBIs in Arizona’s victory over Atlanta his last time out.

Arizona may have the bullpen advantage as well. Cincinnati relievers have struggled lately and imploded Thursday night, surrendering six runs in the ninth inning to lose to St. Louis 10-9. Cincinnati’s bullpen had issues holding leads during their recent series against Miami as well.

Arizona’s record also happens to be better than Cincinnati’s and they have a lot to play for in the National League Wild Card race as they sit at 67-61 and in the thick of the hunt. 

Rodriguez sports a 2.71 ERA and the Reds bullpen has been downright bad, so I'll take Arizona to win my NL Game of the Week on Friday.

Jim's Play: 908. Diamondbacks (NL Game of the Week)

I’ll take the Milwaukee Brewers to win Thursday afternoon in the rubber game of this series. Milwaukee is just the better team overall, has the home-field advantage and gets a good chance to capitalize against George Kirby.

The Brewers will roll with Robert Gasser on Thursday. He comes into the game with a 4.57 ERA, but that’s inflated by one bad start and one so-so start. Outside of those starts, Gasser has given up two earned runs or less in eight of his 11 starts and he did strand the Angels with one run over five innings last time out. He allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Dodgers. If Gasser can keep Seattle to three runs or less, the Brewers should have enough juice to win.

Seattle will counter with George Kirby, who is coming off of a rough outing against Houston where he allowed five runs and didn’t make it through five innings. That’s tough against a Brewers lineup that has already mashed Seattle around in this series.

Seattle was battered for 22 runs on Tuesday, tying a franchise record for runs scored in a game. Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, David Hamilton and Luis Lara all went yard. Milwaukee was still feisty in Wednesday’s loss, too. The Brewers were down 7-0 before rallying for five runs and eventually sending the tying run to the plate in the ninth.

As a whole, Milwaukee has one of baseball’s best pitching staffs as well. Milwaukee’s rotation entered the series with about a 3.50 team ERA. Seattle’s bullpen has also struggled more consistently. The Brewers also came into the series with MLB’s best record. Milwaukee has considerably more depth than Seattle. 

Kirby had a bad start last time out and Gasser has been better than his ERA indicates. Milwaukee pounded Seattle for 27 runs over the first two games of this series, so I’ll bet on the Brewers again here.

Jim's Play: 966. Brewers

I’m taking Oakland as a live underdog against the Royals on Thursday even though Kansas City won the first three games of the series. Oakland has been much better than its record against the Royals would indicate, and Thursday’s pitching matchup sets the A’s up nicely to avoid getting swept.

The biggest reason why Oakland has a chance to pull off the upset is left-handed pitcher Gage Jump. Jump is 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA but his underlying numbers have often been better than his ERA would indicate and he’s flashed some strikeout stuff at times this year. Jump struck out 11 batters over six innings against Boston last week before coming back and helping Oakland pick up an 8-3 win over Texas last Friday. He has the ability to strike Royals hitters out, which is important because Kansas City’s lineup tends to be significantly less dangerous when they aren’t able to put the ball in play so often.

The Royals will counter with Randy Dobnak, who carries a much cleaner 1.73 ERA into Thursday’s game but doesn’t possess nearly the same strikeout upside as Jump. Dobnak has struck out only 25 batters in 41 2/3 innings while walking 16. Giving Oakland a chance to put the ball in play and create traffic on the Royals’ defense rather than face overpowering stuff is a big advantage for the A’s.

Oakland’s offense has also impressed me throughout this series. The A’s scored seven runs on Wednesday and built a 5-1 lead before their bullpen imploded. Oakland also had a 3-0 lead going into the late innings on Tuesday before losing 4-3. Jeff McNeil, Max Muncy, Henry Bolte and Zack Gelof are among the hitters who have produced for Oakland throughout this series. The A’s have been doing everything they can to win games; it’s just been a struggle to close them out.

Kansas City may also be without shortstop Jac Caglilanone, who left Wednesday’s game and is currently day-to-day. Losing any power from Kansas City’s middle-of-the-order is a boon for Jump.

Jump has strikeout upside and Oakland’s offense has been consistently putting them in position to win each of the first three games of this series. Dobnak simply doesn’t strike out enough batters to beat this Oakland lineup, especially if Oakland is able to piece together quality at-bats. Oakland stays alive in this series on Thursday.

Jim's Play: 955. Athletics

I’ll take the Washington Nationals to win here on Wednedsay night against the Texas Rangers.  Washington’s biggest advantage is Cade Cavalli, who owns a 10-5 record with a 3.36 ERA and 151 strikeouts entering Wednesday. Cavalli has been on fire lately, boasting a 5-1 record with a 2.25 ERA in his last seven starts while striking out 46 and walking only 10 in 44 innings. In his most recent outing, Cavalli had arguably the best start of his young season as he tossed eight shutout innings allowing one-hit and striking out 10 against the Cubs.

Texas will counter with Kumar Rocker who has been atrocious this month. Rocker sports a record of 4-9 with a 4.50 ERA but the most troubling statistic to me is that he owns a 8.10 ERA over his last three starts in August. Rocker’s latest performance came against Oakland where he gave up three runs and five walks over just five innings. His lack of command will give Washington plenty of opportunities to manufacture runs via drawing walks and getting into the Rangers bullpen early.

The Nationals were blanked on Tuesday but CJ Abrams showed glimpses of life at the plate, doubling and singling. Washington also stranded runners late in the game and created a scoring chance that could’ve easily produced runs if not for a ground-rule double. Washington should receive a much better offensive matchup by facing Rocker instead of Cal Quantrill.

Washington is also receiving juicy value as Washington is sitting pretty at around a +119 road underdog. With Cavalli pitching like an ace these days and Rocker scuffling all month, the starting pitching advantage makes me believe the Nationals can pull off the upset.

Jim's Play: 930. Nationals

Even though Seattle brings a quality starter into this game, I like Milwaukee to win straight up on Wednesday night. The Brewers have the better team overall, are at home and come into this game with major momentum.

Milwaukee starts Dustin May, who is currently 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA. May has been much better since coming over to Milwaukee. In his two starts since joining the Brewers, May has allowed three runs on seven hits while striking out 11 over 13 innings. If he can match that success Wednesday night, Milwaukee should have a good chance at keeping Seattle’s potent lineup off the board.

Seattle will counter with Logan Gilbert, who is 9-7 with a 3.28 ERA and 152 strikeouts. Gilbert is easily Seattle’s best weapon, but he’s going up against a Brewers lineup that erupted for 22 runs Tuesday night. Milwaukee hit four home runs in that game, with Christian Yelich, David Hamilton, Jake Bauers and Luis Lara all going deep. Seattle only mustered five hits in the loss.

For what it’s worth, Milwaukee also comes into this game at 78-48, compared to Seattle’s 59-67 record, and they have one of baseball’s deepest rosters. That lineup could make up the difference if Gilbert is able to keep it close early. The Brewers have plenty of power in their lineup and could manufacture runs with speed if need be.

I like Brewers because May has been good since coming to Milwaukee, they’re coming off a 22-run explosion Tuesday and Milwaukee has home-field advantage and the better team overall.

Jim's Play: 928. Brewers

I’m backing the Texas Rangers to win against the Washington Nationals Tuesday night as I believe the starting pitching matchup and home-field advantage gives Texas the best paths to victory.

Cal Quantrill is the main reason why. He’s quietly put together a 4-4 record with a 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP entering his start. The right-hander was good in his last outing against the Angels, allowing one run on four hits and striking out six over five innings. Texas should be able to control the game if he can deliver another five or six solid innings.

Jackson Kent will take the ball for Washington. The rookie left-hander is only making his second major-league start after making his debut against the Cubs last week. Kent flashed strikeout potential, but command was an issue as he allowed three runs on four hits and five walks over 4 2/3 innings. Only 37 of Kent’s 78 pitches were strikes and a disciplined Texas lineup will force him into long counts and possibly head to Washington’s bullpen early.

Throw in the fact that James Wood is on the injured list and this is a worrisome offense for Washington fans. The Nationals are coming in having dropped three straight and four straight on the road while the Rangers head back to Globe Life Field where they’re 32-27 this season. Texas also carries more with then being just two games behind Houston for first place in the AL West. Wins against a sub-.500 team like Washington are must-have situations at this point in the year.

Quantrill’s last start was strong, Kent struggled with his control in his MLB debut, the Nationals will be without James Wood and the Rangers will be back at Globe Life Field so I’ll take Texas to win Tuesday’s game.

Jim's Play: 978. Rangers 

Atlanta has reason to bounce back and I like the Braves to win against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night. Starting pitching sets up nicely for Atlanta to win Game 2 and even the series.

Tyler Mahle hasn’t given Atlanta much reason to worry since arriving. In his first two starts with Atlanta, Mahle has allowed just one run while striking out seven over six innings against the Mets in his most recent start, one that Atlanta won 6-3. His ERA (4.64) and record (4-9) don't paint the picture of how good he has been pitching lately.

Zebby Matthews, who makes his second start of the season against Atlanta, is coming in at 6-8 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Matthews still allows plenty of contact, giving up four runs over five innings in his most recent start against Baltimore. He’s not a good matchup against an Atlanta lineup that includes Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley. Olson has hit 36 home runs and Riley is hitting baseballs well this month of August.

Atlanta should also find themselves in a good spot to bounce back after their 4-2 loss on Monday. Minnesota only scored four runs, all coming in the first inning, but Atlanta pitching staff shut the Twins out over their last eight innings. Atlanta also had some good opportunities late in the game but couldn’t cash them in. However they should still have confidence in their ability to put runs on the board against Matthews.

Atlanta just has too much talent overall. They’re 74-51 on the season while Minnesota sits at 61-65. The Braves team ERA of 3.65 is the second-best in the NL. 

Mahle is pitching the best baseball of his season, Matthews can’t stop runs from happening and Atlanta simply has more thunder in their batting order than Minnesota does. I’ll take the Braves to bounce back on Tuesday Night.

Jim's Play: 975. Braves 

For my AL East Game of the Week, I’ll take Tampa Bay over Toronto. Tampa Bay has been lights out in this matchup all season and they’ve added the pitching advantage to give them another favorable contest at home.

Nick Martinez takes the hill for Tampa Bay and he comes in at 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Martinez also comes in having already beaten Toronto this season, working six scoreless innings in a 7-1 win on July 20. Toronto starts Jose Soriano who sports a solid 9-6 record and 3.16 ERA, but Tampa Bay has had Toronto’s number no matter who they’ve started this season.

Tampa Bay is 8-2 against Toronto this season, including 5-1 at home. The Rays have outscored the Blue Jays 53-28 in those 10 games. Toronto will be without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. once again, as he remains on the seven-day concussion IL. Tampa Bay will still have their hands full against Toronto, but taking one of their best hitters out of the lineup definitely improves Martinez’s odds in this one.

Closer Bryan Baker picked up his MLB-leading 35th save while also notching his 24th consecutive save opportunity. Having a dependable closer to protect leads in late innings is huge and Tampa Bay has that in Baker.

Nick Martinez is pitching to a 2.74 ERA, Tampa owns the head to head and they’re playing at home without Guerrero in the lineup. Those factors are enough for me to take Tampa Bay to win here on Tuesday as my AL East Game of the Week.

Jim's Play: 962. Rays (AL East Game of the Week)

I like the Atlanta Braves here Monday as they travel to Minnesota to take on the Twins.  Atlanta will send Martín Perez to the mound on Monday night against Bailey Ober. Perez enters the matchup with an 8-6 record but fantastic numbers, owning a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. Ober, on the other hand, has struggled as of late. The Twins starter is 7-4, but he owns a 4.64 ERA and had his last start ruined against Baltimore when he gave up five runs and eight hits in six innings.

Ober hasn’t fared well against Atlanta either. In his lone career start versus the Braves, he allowed nine runs and seven hits in only two innings. Matchup doesn’t bode well against Atlanta’s potent lineup either, highlighted by Matt Olson’s 36 home runs, one he hit on Sunday, and Austin Riley’s .319 batting average in August.

The Braves are also coming off a victory against Arizona while the Twins have lost three in a row after being swept by Philadelphia at home. Sunday night’s game was particularly bad for Minnesota as they blew a 5-0 lead and lost 7-5.

Atlanta boasts a better team ERA as well, sporting a 3.64 to Minnesota’s 4.67 and they also hit more homers this season (166 to 146).

Take the Braves win on Monday. 

Atlanta has the advantage when it comes to starting pitching and they’re playing better baseball right now. Perez is having a much better season than Ober and Atlanta has more pop in their batting lineup.

Jim's Play: 919. Braves 

Sunday’s MLB Game of the Week features the Kansas City Royals squaring off against the Los Angeles Angels with starting pitching matchup leaning heavily in Kansas City’s favor.

Royals starter Noah Cameron takes on rookie Ryan Johnson for the Angels. Cameron is currently 6-8 with a 4.45 ERA but has pitched much better than his overall numbers indicate as of late. Heading into his last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cameron had pitched 23 innings allowing only one run. This included eight innings of one-run, two-hit ball with nine strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins.

Johnson, on the other hand, is susceptible. He is currently 2-6 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Johnson has also given up seven home runs in only 28 2/3 innings at home. Look for Kansas City to have ample opportunity to bounce back after getting shutout by Reid Detmers and the Angels Saturday.

Kansas City also owns the season series against Los Angeles so far this year winning four out of the first five meetings. Friday, the Royals offense exploded for seven runs behind Jac Caglianone, who went 3-4 with a homer and career-high five RBIs.

Taking into account Cameron’s recent stretch of good pitching and Johnson coming into this game with a 6.71 ERA, I will  take Kansas City to win as my  MLB Game of the Week on Sunday.

Jim's Play: 971. Royals

The Rangers rallied for three runs Friday, but still fell to Oakland 8-3. Texas will have a chance to rebound against the Athletics on Saturday night as I like them to bounce back and win. Texas will be on a four-game losing streak entering the contest, but I like the pitching matchup as it should set MacKenzie Gore up for success.

Gore is currently sitting at 6-9 with a 4.43 ERA, but he has been much better over his last few starts. In his last four starts, the left-hander owns a 2.70 ERA with 27 strikeouts over 23 1/3 innings of work. He also pitched six scoreless innings against San Francisco his last time out, proving he can keep a lineup in check when he commands his pitches.

Oakland will counter with J. T. Ginn, who is 8-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Ginn has also fared well against Texas this season, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in two starts. Texas will need to play well offensively to defeat him, but he also just returned from the injured list due to a blister on his pitching hand. Texas should have opportunities to bring runners to Oakland’s middling relief.

Texas showed some offensive spark on Friday as well, loading the bases in the first inning and rallying for three runs in the sixth behind Jake Burger’s three-run homer. While they ultimately fell short, Texas should be able to capitalize on at least one scoring opportunity against Ginn Saturday considering they have sluggers like Corey Seager, Brandon Nimmo, Wyatt Langford and Burger in their lineup.

Oakland’s eight runs on Friday shouldn’t erase their overall struggles as of late. They entered Friday’s game losing 12 of their last 15 and have dealt with injuries to key offensive players. Oakland infielder-shortstop Jacob Wilson was hurt on Friday as well, leaving the game with a bruised left hand that could deplete their lineup even more come Saturday.

If Texas can get six solid innings out of Gore and avoid collapsing in the bullpen like they did Friday, they should be sitting pretty in this game. Gore has been dominant as of late and if he pitches to that same standard, the Rangers will likely find themselves playing with the lead.

Jim's Play: 923. Rangers -1.22

I like Boston to win their game on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates as the starting pitching matchup presents a huge opportunity for them to rebound from Friday’s 8-4 loss.

The biggest edge belongs to Sonny Gray, who will toe the rubber for Boston and enters the game with a record of 14-3, 2.79 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP. Gray has been extremely consistent this year, posting a record of 10-2 with a 2.65 ERA over his last 15 appearances. Gray lasted six innings in his last start against Toronto while allowing only two runs.

The Pirates will counter with Jared Jones, and that is where Boston should massively outslug Pittsburgh. Jones enters Saturday’s game with a record of 2-4 and a 5.03 ERA. The right-hander was lit up by the Mets in his last appearance, giving up eight earned runs on six hits and three walks in only three innings. Jones owns a 6.00 ERA over his last five starts.

Jones has allowed at least three runs in two straight starts after surrendering three runs on four hits and two walks against Milwaukee. Jones will have to contend with Boston’s lineup, which should be able to make him work early and get into Pittsburgh’s bullpen quickly.

Boston lost by four runs on Friday, marking the Sox sixth loss in seven games. However, Boston put up four runs against Pittsburgh and had men on base in the ninth inning. Nick Sogard finished the game 2-for-4 with two RBIs. Masataka Yoshida also drove in a run for Boston on Friday.

Pittsburgh will also be without key offensive contributors Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz, further stacking the matchup against the Pirates.

Both teams have their questionable bullpen matches as neither team’s closer will take the mound. However, I like Gray’s matchup over Jones as Gray owns a 2.79 ERA and Jones was just shelled by the Mets, surrendering eight runs.

Boston should control the pitching matchup on Saturday and hit enough home runs to take two of three from Pittsburgh.

Jim's Play: 929. Red Sox (IL Game of the Month)

Take: 973. Rangers -1.30 

I’ll take the Texas Rangers to beat the Oakland Athletics on Friday night. Texas has the deeper lineup and a nice matchup against left-handed rookie Gage Jump, who has struggled this month. (Note: The A's are officially listed as undecided for their starter)

Jump has put Oakland in trouble throughout the year, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.46 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. While those are bad marks, they don’t accurately reflect how poorly he’s pitched over his last seven outings. During that stretch, Jump has a 6.34 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He has allowed 38 hits and walked 23 batters over just 32 2/3 innings. Considering how hittable Jump has been lately, Texas should have no problem stringing together multi-run innings.

Kumar Rocker takes the mound for Texas and comes into Friday at 4-9 with a 4.46 ERA and 103 strikeouts. Rocker wasn’t good against Baltimore in his last start, surrendering six runs over three innings. But he has flashed the ability to be a dominant pitcher in this rotation. Take away his start against the Orioles and Rocker owns a 2.76 ERA in four other starts. He threw six shutout innings (allowing one hit) back in May against the White Sox.

Rocker gets a chance to bounce-back against an Athletics team that sits near the bottom of the MLB standings. Oakland is 47-74 coming into the series and was swept by Tampa Bay. The Rays blasted the Athletics for 12 runs Tuesday and eight runs Wednesday. Oakland’s pitching has been hopeless lately. 

Texas has hit some road bumps on its current road trip, but they’re still in the hunt for the AL West and have more to play for than Oakland. Texas should win this series, but I like them here against Oakland on Friday. 

Jim's Play: 973. Rangers 

I will take the New York Yankees to beat the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night. The starting pitching battle lines up the easiest in New York’s favor.

The Yankees will start Gerrit Cole against Shane Bieber. Cole is currently 6-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has struck out 87 batters while walking just 17 over 80 2/3 innings. Bieber has been vastly inferior at 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has given up 48 hits and 23 walks over just 42 2/3 innings, so the Yankees should have opportunities to put men on base.

That will be key as New York still has a power edge over Toronto. The Yankees have hit 169 home runs to Toronto’s 115. New York has also driven in 545 runs while Toronto has scored 482. Ben Rice leads New York with 32 homers and 76 RBIs, but the team around him can also mash if Bieber leaves his pitches over the plate.

The rotations also tilt towards New York. The Yankees have a 3.30 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP against Toronto’s 3.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. If Cole can give New York six solid innings, their bullpen should be able to hold down a lead.

Toronto also limped into this game after Boston shut them out 7-0 on Thursday. New York took two of three from Seattle and then lost an absolutely ridiculous pitchers duel Thursday. The Yankees have gone an impressive 37-26 on the road while Toronto is just 31-32 at Rogers Centre.

The season series has been fairly close, but New York leads Toronto 4-3. This Friday night tilt is one of the better spots for New York to expand their advantage as they get the decidedly more trustworthy Cole on the mound.

I like New York with Cole’s superior strike-zone control over Bieber, who enters with a 5.48 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. New York also has significantly more home-run firepower.

Jim's Play: 965. Yankees 

I’ll take the New York Yankees to win against the Seattle Mariners Thursday afternoon. Max Fried starts for New York, and they have home-field advantage while Seattle is in the middle of a losing streak. I like those factors for New York in terms of overall matchup strength.

Max Fried is obviously the key here. He’s posted a 4-3 record with a 2.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season. Seattle knows how tough Fried can be, too. He pitched seven shutout innings on just three hits during the Yankees’ 5-0 win back in March.

Seattle counters with Logan Gilbert (8-7, 3.42 ERA, 145 K). Gilbert can obviously pitch well, too, but he has struggled against the Yankees in the past. In eight career starts versus New York, Gilbert owns a 2-4 record and 6.80 ERA. Yankee Stadium is notorious for turning pitchers’ mistakes into extra-base hits, so his history against the Yankees concerns me.

Also, speaking of Yankee Stadium… Seattle bats were completely nonexistent against New York’s pitching earlier this series. Wednesday’s 10-5 win was a welcome sight for Yankees fans. New York hit five homers including two from Trent Grisham, who drove in four runs. Spencer Jones added two doubles and three RBIs, too. This came just one day after New York won 4-1, scoring four unanswered runs to end the game.

Seattle is going in the wrong direction at the worst possible time. Wednesday’s game was their sixth straight loss and 15th defeat in their last 20 overall. They currently sit at 56-65 while posting a horrendous 23-36 record on the road. New York is 68-52 and has won four of their last five.

With Max Fried on the bump against a Mariners team losing six of their last seven, poor career numbers from Gilbert against New York and a strong Yankees bullpen, New York is my bet Thursday afternoon.

Jim's Play: 910. Yankees

I’ll take the Miami Marlins against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday afternoon.  Miami had eight runs on Wednesday and saw home runs from Griffin Conine and Heriberto Hernandez. Conine got five hits on the day as Miami cruised to victory. Miami’s bullpen was also strong, tossing three innings of scoreless relief. Miami now has won four consecutive games including the first two of this series by scores of 2-0 and 8-2. The Marlins are 62-59 overall but a much stronger 38-24 at loanDepot park, its best 62-game home record since winning the World Series way back in 2003.

Miami once again holds the edge in the starting pitching department on Thursday. Tyler Phillips (3-5, 3.47 ERA) will take the mound for Miami while Pittsburgh counters with Braxton Ashcraft (11-5, 4.08 ERA). Phillips outpitched his record in his last outing against the Angels last week, surrendering just one run over 4 1/3 innings of work. If he can pitch to that standard for five innings on Thursday, Miami’s bullpen should be able to close it out.

Ashcraft hasn’t been as reliable recently for Pittsburgh. Against Milwaukee his last time out, he gave up four runs (four hits and a walk) over five innings. Pittsburgh needs him to bounce back here against a suddenly scrappy Miami lineup that doesn’t seem to have one go-to hitter these days.

Plus, Pittsburgh has been horrible lately. The Pirates are 1-7 since the deadline and have scored two runs combined in the first two games of this series. Miami held Pittsburgh to four or fewer runs in both of those wins while pitching and playing strong defense.

Miami closer Pete Fairbanks is also back on hand after not needing him Wednesday. He struck out two for a perfect ninth inning save on Tuesday, so Miami left him out of Wednesday’s victory. Fairbanks will be available should this game come down to the wire, which is yet another advantage Miami holds over Pittsburgh.

Miami’s in a groove, winning four straight and playing stellar baseball at home. Phillips has the better ERA as well and Pittsburgh just isn’t the same team without their best players. Take the Marlins on Thursday. 

Jim's Play: 902. Marlins

I like the Blue Jays to take this Wednesday evening matchup with the Red Sox.  First. Toronto won Game 1 and Game 2 of this series 2-1 and 5-3, respectively. The Blue Jays lead Boston 8-3 in the season series and have won nine of their last 13 games. Boston lost four straight to end their streak after they had won their previous nine contests.

Jose Soriano takes the mound for Toronto against Ranger Suarez. Soriano comes into the contest with a record of 9-6 and a 3.24 ERA. He also made his Blue Jays debut against the Phillies recently, allowing one earned run and four hits in 4 2/3 innings. He does not have to overpower Boston, though. Toronto does not need him to go deep into the game as long as he pitches to his standard. If Soriano can keep the Red Sox to two or three runs through five innings, Toronto has proved it can finish games with its bullpen.

Boston also has struggled mightily at the plate with runners in scoring position. Over their last four games, the Red Sox are just 3-for-36 with runners in scoring position. They have been shut out in those situations in each of the first two games of this series, going 0-for-7 on each occasion. Boston's inability to put together hits with men on base will not bode well for them if this game is close.

My biggest worry for Toronto comes in the form of Suarez. The right-hander owns a 3.32 ERA on the season and is 0-for-earned runs against the Blue Jays in his career. However, he has not recorded an out past the fifth inning in any of his last three starts after returning from the injured list. Suarez allowed six earned runs on 11 hits in just 11 2/3 innings over those three starts. If Toronto can avoid disaster against him early, Boston's bullpen may have to come into the game before its usual time.

Toronto proved Tuesday they can produce runs without the home run ball. Brett Bateman had two RBIs, and Charles McAdoo, Ernie Clement and Myles Straw also drove in runs as the Blue Jays won 5-3. They manufactured runs with singles, walks, productive outs and smart baserunning. Expect more of the same Wednesday. 

Jim's Play: 972. Blue Jays

Texas has played the look of the much stronger team through two days against the Angels. On Tuesday, we see why, as the starting pitching matchup tilts heavily in favor of Texas.

The Rangers roll with left-hander Cody Bradford on Tuesday after he made a nice return to the rotation. Bradford threw 4 1/3 innings without allowing a run and struck out five batters in his first start since 2024. It’s still a very small sample, but he generated enough command and swing-and-miss stuff to have Texas feeling good about his chances against an Angels offense that has struggled to show up on a consistent basis.

Los Angeles will reply by going with Ryan Johnson, and that is the exact kind of matchup Texas has to attack. Johnson comes into this game at 2-6 with a 7.11 ERA. He’ll face a Rangers lineup that features Corey Seager, Brandon Nimmo, Wyatt Langford and a host of other potent bats, so Texas needs to pound away at Johnson early and put traffic on the bases.

There’s also an entire season’s worth of trends that point toward the Rangers as well. Texas enters Tuesday at 60-59 while Los Angeles is struggling at 45-74. The Rangers have also been the stronger offensive team, posting a .716 OPS to the Angels’ .688 while smoking 134 home runs to Los Angeles’ 124.

Even the pitching depth statistics lean toward Texas over the course of the season. Rangers pitchers own a 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP against a 4.51 ERA and 1.38 WHIP mark for Los Angeles. The Halos staff has also issued 508 walks on the year, substantially more than Texas’ 352. That’s the kind of extra baserunner Texas can exploit to turn close divisional contests into multi-run blowouts.

All those stats add up to this: Texas has the better record, the superior offensive production, the better pitching staff overall and they get a major opportunity against a starter who is sporting a 7.11 ERA.

Jim's Play: 921. Rangers (AL West Game of the Week)

I like the Atlanta Braves to bounce back and beat the New York Mets on Tuesday night, with Atlanta starter Martín Perez providing the biggest reason to back the Braves at Truist Park.

Perez enters at 7-6 with a 3.14 ERA, but his recent numbers are considerably better. Since the All-Star break, the veteran left-hander owns an outstanding 1.42 ERA, allowing no runs in three of his four starts. Even more impressive, Perez has surrendered only one hit over his last 10 innings.

That gives Atlanta a strong chance to avoid another early deficit after Monday's 8-5 loss. Perez has also historically pitched well against New York, going 5-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 13 career appearances against the Mets.

New York counters with Nolan McLean, who is 8-7 with a 3.51 ERA. McLean has been solid overall, but his last start showed some vulnerability. Cleveland tagged him for five runs and eight hits over five innings, including three runs in his final frame. It was the first time in nine starts that McLean failed to complete six innings.

That could be a problem against an Atlanta offense that has considerably more power than Cleveland. The Braves have scored 581 runs with 159 home runs this season compared with 507 runs and 145 homers for New York. Atlanta also owns the stronger team batting average and slugging percentage.

The Braves also showed Monday that they can generate offense against the Mets even after falling behind 5-0 in the first inning. Atlanta battled back to score five runs, getting production from Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin and Mauricio Dubón. If Perez prevents New York from building another early lead Tuesday, Atlanta's lineup should have opportunities to pressure McLean.

New York is playing very well and has won six of seven on its current road trip, so this isn't an easy matchup. But Perez's current form gives Atlanta a good chance to control the game early, and I prefer the Braves' offensive firepower if this becomes a battle of the bullpens.

Jim's Play: 906. Braves

I’ll take Toronto to win this series finale on Tuesday behind Dylan Cease, who I think gives Toronto the best matchup advantage.

Cease is 7-5 with a 2.28 ERA on the season, but he’s even better against Boston this year. Cease owns a 1.83 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox and was excellent in his most recent outing on July 25 when he threw a one-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts to earn the win in Toronto’s 6-0 victory. Remember that game because Boston’s struggles against Cease happened just last month. Toronto has another opportunity to attack Boston’s lineup with Cease on the mound and his recent success against them matters.

Toronto was able to edge Boston 2-1 on Monday night, and now they’ve won seven of 10 meetings against Boston this season. Toronto probably feels confident in this series regardless of record, while Boston is coming in at just 42-59. Blue Jays are feeling good about themselves right now.

Boston comes into this one scuffling after being one of baseball’s hottest teams for the first half of the season. The Red Sox have lost three straight games now and failed to muster more than one run on Monday for the second time in their last four games. Boston isn’t rolling into this matchup against Cease, who has already proven he can take over games against them this season.

Boston will counter with Patrick Sandoval. He’s 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts this season, tossing 4 2/3 scoreless innings on July 24 in his most recent outing. Sandoval isn’t going to let Toronto pound him around like they did Monday, so the Blue Jays might not have an automatic good hitting night. However, Sandoval hasn’t pitched particularly deep into games this year and Toronto has a good enough bullpen to take advantage if they hit early.

Toronto didn’t need an offensive juggernaut on Monday. Charles McAdoo homered, Andres Gimenez drove in a run and the Blue Jays bullpen closed it out after Jameson Taillon struggled early. Louis Varland earned his 25th save of the season. Toronto may not need much offense against Sandoval if Cease can keep Boston off the board like he has in recent outings against them.

I just think Cease has that ability again on Tuesday. If he can go six or seven innings while limiting Boston to two runs or less, Toronto should be able to piece together enough offense against Sandoval and the Boston bullpen to pick up the win.

Jim's Play: 918. Blue Jays

I'm taking the New York Yankees against the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night, Bryan Woo’s struggles away from Seattle are too difficult to ignore and provide excellent value when combined with the Yankees home-field advantage.

Ryan Weathers gets the nod on the mound for New York against Woo. Weathers sports a record of 5-7 with a 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 132 strikeouts in 121 innings and gives New York a strong lefty starter that should be able to neutralize Seattle’s offense. Speaking of Seattle’s offense, the Mariners enter this series averaging 3.9 runs per game compared to 4.5 PPG for the Yankees.

Bryan Woo has actually been much better at home than on the road. Woo’s overall record stands at 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, but at home he is 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA. Away from Seattle he is 1-8 with a 6.71 ERA, so pitching on the road is clearly an issue. Pitching away from Seattle and on the road against one of the better offenses in baseball isn’t going to get any easier for Woo as he heads to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.

Why does Woo’s lack of success away from Seattle matter? Well the Yankees have hit 167 home runs this season compared to Seattle’s 137, so pitching mistakes in the strike zone could be amplified against the Yankees lineup. Yankee Stadium is also a homer-friendly park that can quickly change the score if a starter like Woo struggles to locate his pitches. The Mariners will need to perform nearly flawlessly on Tuesday if they want to hang with the Yankees.

Seattle is also simply a bad team right now. The Mariners are coming into this series having lost four games in a row while New York has won three of their last five. Seattle owns a record of 56-63 while New York is 66-52 and is at home to start the series. New York also won two of three against Seattle back in June and July.

If Weathers can limit Seattle to two or three runs over his six innings of work I like the Yankees chances of swinging the bats against Woo and manufacturing enough runs of their own. Give me New York to take care of business in the Bronx on Tuesday Night.

Jim's Play: 916. Yankees

Monday night, I like the Brewers despite San Diego winning its last two games by a combined eight runs. Milwaukee holds edges in starting pitching, bullpen depth and consistency in the lineup.

The first reason to like Milwaukee starts on the mound in Logan Henderson. Henderson (6-1) owns a 2.70 ERA and 3.09 FIP with 62 strikeouts in 50 innings. He’s also coming off his third straight winning decision after allowing two runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts in six innings. Henderson should help Milwaukee take an early lead.

The Padres counter with Casey Mize (3.40 ERA), who was lit up during his first MLB start with San Diego. Against the Arizona Diamondbacks last week, Mize gave up eight runs on nine hits and three walks in just 3 1/3 innings of work. He should be able to bounce back from that start, but Milwaukee’s lineup doesn’t simply pound homers. San Diego will have to work to earn victories against Milwaukee.

On the season, Milwaukee won 5-of-7 on its last homestand to improve to 74-44, the best record in baseball. The Brewers rank fifth in runs (585), seventh in OPS (.735) and fourth in stolen bases (117). Milwaukee does a great job of putting pressure on opposing pitchers with consistent speed threats while manufacturing runs.

Plus, Jackson Chourio has four home runs over the past week, and Jake Bauers hit Sunday’s game-winning hit against Minnesota. Milwaukee can also win low-scoring games, too. 

Murphy has a deep bullpen, highlighted by Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, DL Hall and Aaron Ashby. Milwaukee’s bullpen ERA of 3.49 ranks fourth in MLB and the club’s overall 3.47 staff ERA is second. 

San Diego is 9-5 over its last 14 games after winning three of four to start its current homestand. Sunday’s win came against Minnesota, 4-3, while it defeated Houston 7-2 on Saturday behind four homers. The Padres aren’t winning every game by just four runs, but over the course of the season, they just don’t profile well against Milwaukee.

The Padres rank 22nd in runs scored and 25th in OPS while their rotation’s 4.69 ERA is tied for the ninth-worst mark in MLB.  Like the Brewers on Monday due to their starting pitching matchup, consistent offense and strong bullpen.

Jim's Play: 957. Brewers

Take the St. Louis Cardinals to win on Monday night as the starting pitching matchup sets up well for St. Louis to win the series opener at Busch Stadium.

The Phillies roll with rookie Andrew Painter on Monday, who is just 1-8 with a 6.48 ERA entering the game. Painter has been better lately, allowing three runs combined over his last 10 innings of work, but he’s still someone the Cardinals should attack. Painter also exited his last start after just four innings due to hamstring tightness, so Philadelphia might be hesitant to let him go deep into this one.

St. Louis will counter with Hunter Dobbins, who has been much more reliable. He’s currently sporting a 2-2 record with a 3.60 ERA and was great in his last start, allowing two runs and four hits over 6 1/3 innings against the Yankees. If Dobbins can deliver another six solid innings of work, the Cardinals should be able to build an early lead for their bullpen.

Throw in the fact the Cardinals are playing better baseball of late and I like St. Louis to take this one. The Cardinals have won five of seven and opened up a series against the Phillies with a 7-4 win over Colorado on Sunday. Rookie JJ Wetherholt led the way with a two-run double in the eighth inning and Iván Herrera tacked on another RBI hit.

Wetherholt has been one of the more consistent hitters for St. Louis this year, slashing .274 with 16 home runs, 45 RBIs, 57 walks, 74 runs and 12 stolen bases. Along with hitters like Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Herrera, the Cardinals have plenty of bats to put some pressure on a struggling young arm like Painter.

Speaking of struggling young arms, Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, who clubbed two home runs on Sunday and is tied for the MLB lead with 35. But the Phillies had to play 12 innings to pick up a 7-6 win in Toronto and they had lost three out of four entering Sunday’s game. Philadelphia also left 16 runners on base against the Blue Jays, so there are some questions with this lineup as well.

The matchup that jumps out to me is Dobbins vs. Painter. Dobbins has been better than Painter this season and Painter’s 6.48 ERA allows St. Louis to gain an early advantage. The Cardinals have also been playing solid baseball as of late and are coming home after a series victory, so I like them to take advantage.

Jim's Play: 954. Cardinals

I like the Orioles to take the opener on Monday night. Baltimore has the pitching matchup advantage and plenty of offensive upside to post a series win at Target Field.

Trevor Rogers goes for Baltimore and has posted a mediocre 7-7 record with a 4.20 ERA. However, he has been the Orioles’ more consistent starter this season, and he’s facing Dean Kremer, who is just 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in only 41 innings.

The homer issues against Kremer are magnified against Baltimore’s lineup, which came out swinging on Sunday. The Orioles had 10 runs and 15 hits in a 10-5 win over the Texas Rangers. Pete Alonso was a big time force at the plate, going deep twice and driving in four runs. Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser also homered. Coby Mayo had three hits, while Jackson Holliday and Leody Taveras had two apiece.

The Orioles are no slouch when it comes to hitting home runs themselves. Baltimore has blasted 138 homers this season and Kremer just gives the Orioles’ bats a clear path to success. Look for Rogers to limit the damage Monday and for Baltimore to capitalize against Kremer and the Twins bullpen.

Minnesota will also be without Byron Buxton, who remains on the injured list. The center fielder is tied for the team lead with 25 homers, so his absence is another reason why I like Baltimore on Monday.

Both teams enter play Monday having lost two straight games, though Minnesota dropped its recent pair by identical 4-3 scores against Milwaukee. Baltimore will have more confidence coming in after avoiding a series sweep against Texas.

This game isn’t as lopsided as the lines make it seem, hence why Baltimore is just a slight favorite. But I do like the starting pitching matchup here and Baltimore should be able to hit enough home runs to pull away from Minnesota if Rogers pitches efficiently.  With Kremer dealing with a 5.93 ERA and Baltimore’s offense coming off a 10-run outburst against Texas, I’ll take the Orioles Monday night.

Jim's Play: 961. Orioles

I like Atlanta to beat the New York Mets on Monday night. Atlanta has the home-field advantage and their recent play of Bryce Elder gives them a nice edge in the series opener.

Atlanta enters Monday having won nine of its last 11 games and the team has been downright dominant at Truist Park. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta is 12-2 at home. Overall, the Braves have a 39-20 home record this season. Atlanta has won nine straight games at home, so that doesn’t figure to bode well for a Mets team opening up another divisional series on the road.

The biggest difference for me might be starting pitcher Bryce Elder. Elder comes in with an 8-6 record and a 3.69 ERA. Since the All-Star break, Elder has gone 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts. In those four starts he has allowed two runs or fewer in each outing. Elder continued that success in his last start, tossing seven innings of one-hit baseball while allowing one run.

Atlanta’s whole rotation has been good lately. Braves starters have given up three runs or fewer in 18 straight games. That’s the longest active streak in all of baseball. Atlanta has a good chance to keep this one under control until their bullpen takes over late.

New York counters with Christian Scott, who has been good but just hasn’t fared well against Atlanta. Scott is 0-3 in three career starts versus the Braves and is also 0-2 against Atlanta this season. Since the All-Star break, he is 0-2 with a 4.30 ERA in three starts. In his last outing, Scott allowed three runs across five innings against Cleveland.

Atlanta also comes home winners after topping the Yankees 2-1 in 10 innings Sunday. Matt Olson homered for the 34th time this season. Michael Harris II drove in the winning run and Raisel Iglesias and Tyler Kinley finished things off with scoreless relief.

Atlanta has the better team overall, a massive home-field advantage and the hotter starter.  With Elder rolling, Atlanta winning nine of 11 and the Braves being so good at Truist Park, I’ll take Atlanta Monday night.

Jim's Play: 952. Braves

I’ll take the Rangers to sweep the Orioles on Sunday. Texas comes into the finale at 59-58 after winning four straight. Baltimore has lost three straight and fallen to 56-61.

Here’s one big reason why: Kumar Rocker.  The Texas righty gets the start Sunday and enters the game with a record of 4-8 and a 4.08 ERA with 98 strikeouts. Rocker hasn’t been dominant at any stage this season, but he has a power arsenal that should give him an edge over Baltimore’s offense, which is going absolutely nowhere right now.

The Orioles have scored a total of 11 runs over their last seven games and have mustered one run in each of the first two games of this series. Baltimore lost 2-1 on Friday, then fell apart and lost 5-1 on Saturday. They simply aren’t producing enough offense to hang with anyone. If Rocker can limit Baltimore to two or three runs, he’s probably going to win this game. He doesn’t have to be perfect if Texas can continue to play defense like it has in this series.

The Orioles will throw lefty Cade Povich on Sunday. Povich is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA, and he did earn some respect by tossing six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Angels in his last start. But Texas has reason to like its chances against a left-hander. The Rangers are batting .253 against lefties this season, so they should be able to create more offense than the Angels did versus Povich.

Speaking of bullpens, Texas’ relievers were excellent after Jacob deGrom exited Saturday’s game. Peyton Gray, Chase Silseth and Cal Quantrill combined for four scoreless innings. Baltimore’s bullpen is good too, but Texas has a better chance of closing this game if Rocker simply gets it through five or six innings with a lead.

The Orioles simply can’t hit right now. Even good starting pitching hasn’t been able to help them lately. Kyle Bradish threw six scoreless innings Saturday, but Baltimore still lost 4-0 because it couldn’t muster any offense and made some defensive miscues before Baltimore’s bullpen imploded in the late innings.  I'll take the hosts in this one as my overall Game of the Week!

Jim's Play: 914. Rangers (MLB Game of the Week)

The Kansas City Royals feel like a very live home underdog to me against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, and that’s before we even consider a price around +140. Chicago is the better team in terms of record, but I feel like this matchup lines up closer than the betting odds are suggesting, and we start with Kansas City starter Randy Dobnak.

Dodnak comes into Sunday at 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA. He’s been incredible since entering the Royals rotation and in his first four starts has allowed just two runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. What’s even more impressive about Dobnak’s performance is that he’s allowed just one earned run over his last 17 innings pitched. This includes seven scoreless against Minnesota and five scoreless against Detroit his last time out. Dobnak isn’t blowing hitters away with strikeouts, but he has thrown plenty of strikes and limited free passes all while forcing hitters to earn everything they get.

This immediately gives Kansas City a chance to keep games in the middle and late innings. Chicago’s Matthew Boyd has been good for the Cubs this season and has particularly strong numbers on the road. However, Boyd had some trouble against the Dodgers in his last outing, allowing five runs (four earned) on nine hits and two home runs. Kansas City doesn’t need to go out and attack Boyd early. If the Royals can muster up three or four runs and Dobnak continues to pitch as he has been, Kansas City should have every chance to win this game.

Kansas City is also catching this game at home where they have been playing their best baseball. The Royals have won 10 of their last 13 games at Kauffman Stadium and are looking to pick up another series win at home on Sunday. That home-field momentum is significant when you’re receiving a juicy plus-money price.

Saturday’s win is also key because it shows Kansas City can indeed finish this job off on Sunday. The Royals didn’t just squeak away with a close victory against Chicago. They pounded Chicago pitching to the tune of 6 runs and plenty of hard contact.

Yes, Chicago is better than Kansas City and Boyd is more than capable of bottling up Kansas City’s offense. But we’re not getting asked to lay odds on the Royals here. We have the chance to receive plus money on a home team catching fire at home with one of its hottest pitchers on the mound along with some big hitters swinging it well. If Dobnak can limit Chicago to two or three runs through five or six innings then Kansas City will have every opportunity to win this outright.

Jim's Play: 926. Royals

Arizona is a nice live dog here on Saturday against the Dodgers despite Los Angeles getting Yoshinobu Yamamoto. A big reason why is due to the pitcher Arizona is getting as well. Brandon Pfaadt is having a breakout season himself and as good as any starter in the Diamondbacks rotation at the moment. Arizona has already beat Yamamoto once, so they know what they are capable of doing.

Pfaadt’s 3.66 ERA doesn’t scream wow, but that’s deceiving because of how well he’s pitched lately. The right-hander returned from a stint at Triple-A Reno on June 30 and he’s 6-0 with a 1.55 ERA in his seven starts since then. Pfaadt held San Diego hitless on Saturday while allowing just one unearned run across 6 2/3 innings in Arizona’s 5-1 win. He’s been attacking the strike zone and pounding it, keeping walks low and avoiding any big innings along the way. If you want to go back further, Pfaadt has allowed two earned runs or fewer and gone at least five innings in seven straight starts.

Arizona beat this Dodgers team with Yamamoto on the mound just under three weeks ago. On July 11 in Los Angeles, Pfaadt held the Dodgers to two runs over 5 1/3 innings, striking out seven and issuing zero walks. Arizona smashed Yamamoto that day in a 9-2 win. Pfaadt retired 15 of the first 17 Dodgers he faced and had a Dodger Stadium shutout going into the sixth inning against one of baseball’s highest powered offenses at the time.

Sure, Yamamoto is one of the biggest hurdles Arizona has to face. The Dodgers right-hander is pitching incredibly well this season with a 2.76 ERA across 133 2/3 innings. Yamamoto has been great since the All-Star break too with a 2.35 ERA over his past three starts. Arizona has shown they are capable against him though.

The Dodgers also are scuffling right now too. They entered this three-game series in Arizona having been swept in back-to-back series by Boston and the Cubs. That was the longest losing streak of their season. Los Angeles saw what was once a 14-game NL West lead against Arizona down to just 8.5 games entering Friday. It’s still a very good lineup but they aren’t playing their best baseball right now and I’m not sure Saturday against a rolling Pfaadt is exactly the recipe to turn it around.

Arizona will need to keep it close early because they’re unlikely to bash Yamamoto around again for six runs, but they don’t need that to happen to win this game. If Pfaadt pitches to the level he has been pitching lately and keeps the Dodgers to two or three runs over six innings, then Arizona simply needs to muster three or four runs against Yamamoto and the Dodgers bullpen. We already know they can do that. 

Jim's Play: 958. Diamondbacks

 The Mets roll into Game 2 of this series with far more momentum than the Pirates. Additionally, I like the pitching matchup I’m getting with Robert Stock going against Bubba Chandler.

Offense is the first thing that stands out here. New York won four straight games to open this road trip, scoring 31 runs across that span. The Mets took three of four from Cleveland by scores of 6-2, 6-5 and 13-6 before posting a 6-4 win Friday night against Pittsburgh. The Pirates, meanwhile, have dropped four straight games.

Stock is fascinating to me here. Saturday’s game will be just the second of his major-league season, but he impressed in his MLB debut last Sunday against Miami. Stock lasted five innings against the Marlins, allowing one run in New York’s eventual 2-0 loss. He limited Miami to four hits while working out of a few jams. The Mets got everything they could have reasonably asked for from a spot-starting pitcher in Stock’s first career MLB start.

To be fair, his Triple-A track record hinted at that type of success. Stock went 2.91 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 31 strikeouts in just 21 2/3 innings for Triple-A Syracuse this season. He has the ability to miss bats, and he limits baserunners as well. That combination should help him work deep into this contest against Pittsburgh. If Stock can offer another five quality innings, I like the Mets’ chances of scoring enough runs to close things out.

It might actually be Pittsburgh starter Bubba Chandler who is more exploitable in this spot. Through 15 starts, Chandler owns a 4-8 record with a 4.49 ERA. His stuff plays at the highest level, but his command can struggle at times. Chandler possesses one of the biggest heaters in baseball, but he hasn’t always used that velocity efficiently.

Walks have plagued Chandler at points throughout the season. Earlier this year, he posted an 11-game stretch during which he issued at least one free pass per outing. MLB wrote about the issue during one rough five-start stretch. Over that period, Chandler owned a 6.95 ERA and issued a ton of walks.

New York’s offense has been spread around during this hot stretch. I have Pittsburgh scrawled down here simply because of their recent struggles, which have been thorough. The Pirates are dealing with injuries, their own Mets-like offensive skid and a matchup I like versus Chandler.

Jim's Play: 951. Mets

I will be looking at the Cleveland Guardians to win on Friday against the Chicago White Sox, as the starting-pitching matchup alone tilts the game in Cleveland’s direction.

Guardians starter Parker Messick has been fantastic this season at 8-6 with a 2.57 ERA. The peripherals back up that ERA as well, as Messick owns a 3.09 xERA and 17.6% strikeout-minus-walk rate. Schultz has struggled mightily with a 5.82 ERA and 5.67 xERA, so there’s a massive disparity between these two pitchers for the first five or six innings at least.

Plus, Cleveland has some hitters who are swinging a hot bat lately. Steven Kwan is riding a six-game hitting streak and is hitting .359 over his last 10 games, while Chase DeLauter is the club leader with 102 hits and owns a .279 batting average. DeLauter and Kwan can work out traffic early in the lineup to give José Ramírez opportunities to drive them in.

Cleveland has dominated head-to-head meetings against Chicago, too. The Guardians have won three of four games between these two teams in 2023 and had won three consecutive by one-run margins before Chicago evened the series recently.

If Messick pitches anywhere near his season numbers and Cleveland can get into the White Sox bullpen with a lead, the Guardians have the advantage in this one.

Jim's Play: 915. Guardians 

The Mets have a legitimate opportunity to knock off the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday as they come in with both a hotter offense and a young starter who has demonstrated the ability to pitch well enough to keep his team in the game.

New York heads into Friday on a three-game winning streak, including a sweep of Cleveland that was highlighted by a 13-6 win Thursday. New York tallied 18 hits in that game, highlighted by a homer from Francisco Lindor and offensive contributions from Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Carson Benge and Luis Torrens. New York should be able to continue that kind of production against a Pittsburgh team that just lost three out of four to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Thornton is a 24-year-old left-hander who has flashed excellent command and run prevention ability during his first taste of major-league action. Mlodzinski, who the Pirates are starting on Friday, has pitched well this season but has bounced around between starting and relieving roles. Expect this pitching matchup to be closer than Pittsburgh’s implied price may indicate.

The Mets younger lineup has been loose at the plate, finding ways to produce runs and get contributions from the whole lineup. Pittsburgh has not been able to do that, which is why they have struggled to find any momentum.

As long as Thornton can give the Mets five competitive innings, their improving offense should get enough opportunities to take control of this game against Mlodzinski and the Pirates bullpen.

Jim's Play: 901. Mets

I'll be taking the Kansas City Royals to win against over the Minnesota Twins here on Thursday. The Royals hold the advantage in starting pitching and better momentum coming in, not to mention they have Bobby Witt Jr. back in the lineup.

Michael Wacha gets the nod for Kansas City and he brings a 3.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP into the game. His command and ability to pitch deep into games allows the Royals to feel comfortable knowing they have a reliable starter against a Twins offense that has scored three total runs through two games of this series. Minnesota sends Bailey Ober to the mound and he owns a 4.45 ERA.

The Royals have been impressive in taking the first two games of the series. Tuesday’s game ended with an 8-2 score in Kansas City’s favor, while Wednesday’s matchup was a 2-1 victory. Noah Cameron threw eight innings Wednesday and Kansas City will love that since it didn’t tax their bullpen. Minnesota will look to stop their four-game losing streak on Thursday.

The Royals lineup has been upgraded with the return of Bobby Witt Jr. He had three hits, two RBI and two runs scored on Tuesday, which gives Kansas City the speed and big bat they need leading off the order.

Bailey Ober has the ability to be successful when he is commanding his fastball, but he has been prone to giving up homers in the past. With some of Kansas City’s bats like Witt, Salvador Perez, Michael Massey and the rest of their order able to take him deep, Thursday could be a long day for Ober. Kansas City holds the edge with Wacha on the mound and since they’re playing confident baseball at home, they should win the game and finish the sweep.

Jim's Play: 966. Royals

The Atlanta Braves are favored to take series against the Miami Marlins on Thursday thanks to the starting-rotation edge, playing their best ball of the year and winning the first two contests of this series.

Atlanta has the advantage on the mound with Martín Perez while Miami counters with Janson Junk. Perez will start Thursday’s game at 7-6 with a 3.24 ERA. Miami’s Junk is 5-6 with a 4.58 ERA entering Thursday’s game. Perez provides the Braves with the more consistent starter against a Marlins team that has struggled mightily against lefties this season.

Atlanta won the first two games of this series by identical scores of 4-2. Grant Holmes tossed six-plus innings of scoreless ball on Tuesday while Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley launched homers Wednesday. The Braves have now won seven straight and head into Thursday with a 69-45 record.

Atlanta’s lineup holds the clear power advantage over Miami’s. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Riley and Albies all pose legitimate threats to change the game on any given at-bat. Junk doesn’t rack up strikeouts, so he’ll often struggle to escape jams. Atlanta should be able to capitalize when he falls behind hitters in the count.

Perez doesn’t need to be overpowering. He needs to give Atlanta six competitive innings to have a chance. If Atlanta can continue scoring runs early and give a lead to their fresher late-inning relievers, they’ll be in good shape. Atlanta has the better starter, the hotter bats and holds the home-field advantage. Atlanta has the better chance to sweep. 

Jim's Play: 956. Braves

The San Diego Padres have an excellent opportunity to take down the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday. They’ll get the starting pitching edge while rolling into this matchup with positive offensive momentum.

San Diego will deploy newly acquired Casey Mize on the mound. Mize is 4-6 with a stellar 2.70 ERA across 16 starts this season. The righty gives San Diego a swing-and-miss starter who excels at limiting hard contact and pitching deep into games. Mize will make his Padres debut Wednesday afternoon.

Arizona plans to take the ball to the mound with rookie Mitch Bratt. Bratt, a left-hander, entered his last outing sporting an ERA north of 6.00. He has flashed potential in his brief career but has also been hit hard when hitters wait him out and force him into the zone. Expect San Diego’s veteran-laden lineup to test Bratt early and often behind Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts.

Padres came alive on offense during Tuesday’s 9-4 win, posting 16 hits while posting a 6-0 lead through the first two innings. Machado went for three hits and four RBIs, while Merrill hit for three hits and drove in two runs. San Diego has won nine of its last 11 games overall.

Diamondbacks needed a procession of relievers to finish Tuesday’s game after Eduardo Rodriguez gave up seven runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings of work. San Diego starter Randy Vasquez allowed zero runs over six innings, so its top bullpen pieces will enter Wednesday relatively fresh.

The Padres have the edge in starting pitching, and Arizona will ride a rookie they were targeting in last year’s draft. San Diego’s bats have also heated up at the perfect time. Give the Padres the edge in this matchup.

Jim's Play: 909. Padres

Heading into Wednesday’s series finale, the Kansas City Royals have an excellent opportunity to pick up the win over the Minnesota Twins. First of all, Kansas City will have the better starting pitcher for the game. They also added some offense in the series opener that should prove vital moving forward.

Kansas City will start Noah Cameron who comes into the game with a record of 5-8 and an ERA of 4.59. Cameron has not only previously beaten Minnesota this season, holding them to one unearned run and three hits over six innings, but he struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter. Left-handed starters have also had trouble against Cameron this season. Expect him to continue to give the Twins problems.

Minnesota will go with Dean Kremer who enters at 6.50 ERA and will make his Twins debut on Wednesday after being traded from Baltimore. While Kremer does have MLB experience under his belt, he hasn’t fared very well as of late and will need some time to adjust to a new team before making his first start. Royals hitters should be able to jump all over him early.

Kansas City also won game one of the series on Tuesday by a final score of 8-2. Bobby Witt Jr. exited the game early due to back spasms, but returned on Tuesday and went three for five with two RBIs and two runs scored. Having Witt back in the lineup immediately made Kansas City deeper and more formidable offensively. The Twins have lost three straight after getting swept by Cleveland over the weekend.

With Cameron’s prior dominance over Minnesota in his last start against them, Kremer’s subpar performance as of late and Witt back in the lineup for KC, the Royals are rolling into this one with the better chance to win at home.

Jim's Play: 918. Royals

A San Francisco Giants victory against the Texas Rangers on Tuesday is possible for three reasons. The Rangers are struggling, MacKenzie Gore has been spotty and the Giants still have momentum after taking Game 1 of this series.

Giants toppled Rangers 5-1 Monday night behind two homers from Jung Hoo Lee and six scoreless innings from Logan Webb. San Francisco also committed no errors and capitalized on five Texas mistakes. Texas is now winless in its last six games and that should give Giants bettors some pause before laying big numbers against San Francisco.

Tidwell sports a 3.00 ERA with 10 strikeouts in his small sample of major-league work. He’s still very inexperienced, but the Giants will live if Tidwell misses some bats against a Texas offense that managed just one run Monday and got almost nothing from its lineup’s upper third.

Texas will counter with Gore, who is just 6-9 with a 4.77 ERA. Gore has generated plenty of strikeouts, but his results have been shaky overall. San Francisco won’t need to string many hits together to score some runs against Gore. A few walks, one extra-base hit and another Ranger defensive miscue should be enough to give the Giants an early advantage.

Giants didn’t deal away their most feared veterans at the trade deadline either. Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman still reside in San Francisco’s lineup while Lee is coming off a two-homer game and should feel great about himself heading into Tuesday. The Giants still have power to take advantage of Gore if he falls behind in the count.

Texas is getting prices near -194, which makes San Francisco seem like a hefty underdog. That line seems way too high for a Rangers team that’s losing by the basketful and sending a pitcher to the mound with an ERA close to 5.00. Giants fans might not like the inconsistency from rookie Blade Tidwell, but San Francisco doesn’t need Tidwell to be lights out. If he pitches to contact and escapes innings with four or five outs, the Giants’ lineup and bullpen should be able to keep this one close and produce another upset swing win.

Jim's Play: 977. Giants

The Atlanta Braves will have several reasons to feel confident in their odds to beat the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. Atlanta’s starting pitching matchup tilts in its favor, it owns more lineup depth and it has home-field advantage.

Atlanta is projected to start Grant Holmes, who arrives having posted a 6-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and 87 strikeouts on the season. Miami is scheduled to start Ryan Gusto, whose ERA sits above 5.00. Holmes has emerged as the Marlins’ more reliable starter while also possessing better strikeout stuff, which will allow him to limit Miami when it comes to putting the ball in play. The Marlins lineup has not produced well on the road, so Holmes should be able to take advantage of that.

Speaking of advantages, Atlanta also simply has the better team heading into this matchup. The Braves have a record of 67-45 and they lead the NL East. Miami’s record is 58-55. Atlanta has more big bats at its disposal to be fearsome when Ronald Acuna Jr. lays down a sacrifice bunt to set the table.

Atlanta also improved its team by adding outfielder Lane Thomas at the trade deadline. It also acquired veteran starting pitching help in Tyler Mahle and left-handed reliever Brent Suter. All three of those acquisitions give Atlanta added depth that should help it fend off Miami once Holmes exits.

Miami has been a competitive team this season, but its play on the road continues to drag down its overall performance. Miami entered this game with a below-.500 record away from Marlins Park. Atlanta, meanwhile, has found consistent success playing its home games at Truist Park.

Grant Holmes should give Atlanta the edge in starting pitching, its lineup boasts more depth and it’s playing this game at home. For those reasons, the Braves will have the best chance to win on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 954. Braves

The Cincinnati Reds will have a good opportunity to beat the Oakland Athletics when Brady Singer takes the hill against J.T. Ginn. Singer has been very good at Great American Ball Park when you compare his home numbers to his career totals.

In general, Singer is 5-10 with a 4.35 ERA. At home Singer sports a 2.73 ERA and can induce ground balls and weak contact when he has his sinker-slider working. The Athletics lineup has dealt with inconsistent offense and came into the series with one of the worst offenses in the AL.

J.T. Ginn actually has been better than Singer with an 8-6 record and 3.46 ERA. Cincinnati does not have a huge pitching edge and both pitchers could give them quality starts. However, the Reds have a much better offensive environment at home with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and the heart of the lineup to capitalize on mistakes in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati will also need to force Ginn into deep counts. Ginn has been effective for Oakland, but he does not have overpowering stuff. If the Reds can manufacture traffic and get him out of the game before the bullpen comes into play, they can expose Oakland’s less-than-stellar bullpen.

Singer does not have to be dominant either. Five or six solid innings should suffice as long as Cincinnati bats early and plays with a lead. With Singer’s superior home numbers, Cincinnati’s power edge and home field advantage, the Reds have the better recipe for success.

Jim's Play: 974. Reds

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the inside track to pull off the win against the San Diego Padres on Monday because they’re at home, they’re only one game behind in the standings and their lineup can exploit Michael King before San Diego unleashes its best relievers.

Arizona comes into this four-game series at 59-53, giving the Diamondbacks the benefit of a single-game lead over San Diego in the NL Wild Card standings. Arizona also spent Sunday coming back home after winning two of three games in Cleveland, so it arrives with some momentum despite getting blanked during Sunday’s series finale.

Brandon Pfaadt will take the hill for Arizona and he heads into Monday at 5-1 with a 4.00 ERA. Pfaadt hasn’t posted an ERA that’s overpowering, but he has demonstrated more command since returning to Arizona’s rotation. Back on July 7, Pfaadt threw five innings without surrendering an earned run or walking a batter, indicating that he can be effective when he locates his pitches on the corners of the strike zone.

San Diego sends King to the mound in response. King has a 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, which are both solid marks, but the Padres bumped their rotation around to get King into Monday’s game. Furthermore, San Diego is already seeking upgrades in terms of starting pitching depth. Arizona increases its odds by forcing King to work through at-bats and making San Diego navigate multiple innings with its bullpen.

Arizona even has the higher projected ceiling offensively in this game. The Diamondbacks are scoring about 4.3 runs per game to San Diego’s 3.8 runs per game, and Arizona’s lineup boasts Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno and Max Kepler. Chase Field is homer-friendly, but Arizona also has speed and the ability to rip extra-base hits that can challenge San Diego without exclusively leaning on the long ball.

San Diego has some momentum working in its favor after winning five of six during its latest homestand, but the Padres play a critical divisional series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. Arizona gets to stay home with an opportunity to get itself back into the Wild Card race. Arizona’s lineup, home-field advantage and Pfaadt’s better command gives the home team a path to success on Monday.

Jim's Play: 908. Diamondbacks

There’s value on San Francisco taking the Monday MLB contest against Texas as the San Francisco Giants have the starting pitching advantage with Logan Webb on the bump in a line that’s opening close to even.

Webb is 6-7 with a 3.93 ERA and 93 strikeouts on the season. His excellent ground ball tendencies, ability to limit walks and consistently pitch deep into games allows him to give San Francisco a consistent floor against a Texas offense that has yet to be consistent themselves. Texas looks to send Cal Quantrill to the hill (though they are currently listed as undecided), setting up a much better offensive matchup for San Francisco than their team winning percentage indicates.

Texas is also coming into the game off an emotionally and physically draining divisional series against Houston. Texas’ bullpen will be without Jakob Junis, who is headed to the IL, which doesn’t help a relief corps that could see early game action if Quantrill has any troubles.

San Francisco has enough big bats down the order and in Willy Adames to capitalize off any mistakes. San Francisco doesn’t need to explode offensively with Webb getting the start. Four or five runs should be enough support if Webb continues to induce ground balls and limit Texas from manufacturing a big inning.

No matter who the Rangers start here tonight, I'll be on the Giants in this one with Webb on the hill.

Jim's Play: 913. Giants

The Colorado Rockies will win their game against the Kansas City Royals on Sunday. Colorado rolls into the matchup with significant offensive momentum, plus a home field advantage and a Kansas City team that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching.

Through two games of the series, Colorado has outscored Kansas City 15-7. Friday night saw a 3-1 win for Colorado, while Saturday night’s game was decided with a 12-6 victory for the Rockies. Hunter Goodman paced Colorado’s latest offensive explosion with four hits, two home runs and five RBI. Colorado also had a six-run inning and received multiple hits from five players.

Rockies starter Kyle Freeland goes for Colorado against Royals starter Seth Lugo. Freeland’s 2-10 record and 7.34 ERA doesn’t inspire confidence, however Kansas City sports a 9-22 record against left-handed starters. That’s why Freeland has the opportunity to outpitch his season numbers, especially if Colorado can give him run support in the first inning or two.

Lugo comes into Sunday’s game with a 4-6 record and an ERA just north of 4.22. Lugo has experience on his side as a veteran starter, but pitching in Coors Field is never easy with how often contact turns into extra-base hits and long innings. Colorado is hitting the ball well, too. Goodman, Mickey Moniak, TJ Rumfield and Brenton Doyle are just a few hitters who can hurt Lugo on Sunday.

Kansas City’s bullpen may be fatigued after failing to close out Saturday’s game. During Colorado’s 12-6 win, Kansas City’s bullpen cycled through several relievers while Colorado’s bullpen was able to close the game out with two scoreless frames. Having that late-game advantage could benefit Colorado on Sunday.

Kansas City has also struggled on the road, entering Sunday with a 19-35 record away from home. Colorado will enter Sunday playing with confidence, will own the series and has every opportunity to pressure Kansas City’s pitching in a favorable environment once again.

Jim's Play: 976. Rockies

I like the  New York Yankees chances to beat the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. Gerrit Cole ensures New York holds the starting-pitching advantage in a game it must win to claim the series.

Entering Sunday, Cole owns a 4-5 record with a 3.57 ERA and 73 strikeouts.  Chicago counters with Colin Rea, who owns an 8-7 record with a 4.67 ERA. Cole has the better swing-and-miss stuff and stands a better chance of blanking a Cubs offense that has produced five runs over the first two games of the series.

New York won Friday’s opener 2-0 before losing Saturday’s matchup 5-2 after its bullpen gave up three runs in the seventh inning. Max Fried held Chicago to one run on five hits over 5+ innings showing the Yankees can bottle up the Cubs when they receive quality starting pitching. Cole presents another opportunity for New York to do the same thing on Sunday.

Chicago’s Rea sports the higher ERA, so New York holds a better offensive matchup than it did against Shota Imanaga and David Peterson over the first two games. The Yankees have not yet found consistency in their offense, but Spencer Jones homered in both games of the series and stands as a key power threat should the lineup only need four or five runs with Cole on the mound.

If Cole can work deep into the game, he should lessen the burden on a bullpen that wilted on Saturday. Armed with the better starter and a more friendly opposing pitcher, New York is the better play to win on Sunday.

Jim's Play: 973. Yankees

The Cleveland Guardians will beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday thanks to Gavin Williams providing them a legitimate starting pitching advantage and Arizona’s bullpen coming into the finale off a taxing Saturday performance.

Williams has pitched to a 10-6 record with an ERA just shy of 3.7 and 156 strikeouts across just 126 2/3 innings. He’ll allow Cleveland their best chance at slowing down an Arizona offense that plated 12 runs Saturday. Williams can miss bats, tamp down extended rallies and get deep into the game in a way that Cleveland’s starters couldn’t during games one and two.

Arizona will send Merrill Kelly to the mound as their starter. Kelly boasts an 8-8 record and 4.86 ERA on the year. Kelly has experience at the starter level, but he’s been wildly inconsistent this season. Cleveland should have success if they limit themselves from falling into hittable counts against him.

The Guardians also proved Saturday their offense can hit against Arizona’s pitching. Cleveland plated eight runs on Saturday and nearly mounted a comeback from down 10-2. Arizona reliever Paul Sewald allowed five earned runs without getting an out, leading to Arizona needing to tap into their bullpen more to close out the game.

That bullpen usage could play a factor on Sunday. Arizona taxed their bullpen while protecting a large lead and Cleveland will counter with their best starter of the series. If Williams can give Cleveland somewhere around six solid innings, they can limit how much they’ll need to tap into their less reliable bullpen arms.

Cleveland has lost the first two games of this series but they’re still getting laid down as favorites in the betting market. Between Williams matching up well against a more shaky Diamondbacks starter and playing at home with something to play for, Cleveland should bounce back.

Jim's Play: 972. Guardians

The Colorado Rockies have a legitimate shot at upending the Kansas City Royals on Saturday. The Rockies roll into this matchup with momentum and they also check both boxes as favorites with their home-field advantage and offense expected to see chances against Luinder Avila at Coors Field.

Colorado won Friday’s series opener 3-1 on solid pitching and some opportunistic hitting. The Rockies limited Kansas City to one run, capitalized on an error and even got an RBI double from Brenton Doyle in his return from the IL. The Rockies didn’t blow the game open with big innings, but they found ways to scratch across runs when needed. If Colorado plays like it did on Friday, there’s a good chance they win the series.

Kansas City will counter with Avila, who is hitting the bump sporting a 5-3 record and 4.81 ERA with 59 strikeouts. Avila’s ERA is helped by a lower-than-average strand rate and opponents are still reaching base at an inflated clip. Both of those stats work against him in Denver, where singles and doubles often lead to innings with multiple runs. Colorado’s probable starter Ryan Feltner is coming off a good start as well and he owns a 3-5 record with a 5.73 ERA. Feltner gets the pitching edge, but he also gets to face a Royals offense that put up zero on Friday in what looked like a missed opportunity.

Kansas City has one of the least reliable offenses on the road. The Royals come into Saturday with a record of 19-35 away from Kauffman Stadium. At home, Kansas City has a much better 26-27 record. Their bats went mostly silent on Friday, managing just one run against what has been one of the worst season-long pitching staffs in baseball.

Colorado’s lineup is powerful enough to take advantage of Avila. Mickey Moniak is giving Rockies’ fans plenty to cheer about with his production against right-handed pitching. Doyle’s return from injury helps Colorado both offensively and defensively. TJ Rumfield and Hunter Goodman give the Rockies even more potential run producers to worry about from the middle of their lineup.

Jim's Play: 926. Rockies 

The New York Yankees are poised to take Game 2 of their series against the Chicago Cubs on Saturday for several reasons. They have the better starting-pitching matchup and they’re riding high after blanking Chicago in Friday’s opener.

Max Fried takes the mound for New York against Cubs starter David Peterson. Fried has a 4-3 record with a 3.23 ERA and 61 strikeouts entering Saturday. Peterson (6-7) owns a much higher ERA at 5.80. That clear edge for New York should help the team maintain early control.

On a smaller scale, Fried should be able to avoid danger if he allows Chicago opportunities to continue putting runs on the board. He doesn’t need to go eight scoreless innings. If Fried keeps the Cubs close to spotless through five or six frames, New York can lean on its bullpen, which sports its fair share of weapons.

Chicago’s hitters also dealt with another difficult outing against left-handed pitching on Friday. The Cubs finished with only five hits and managed to get only two runners as far as second base. New York allowed only two hits in its 2-0 victory and certainly boasts the better bullpen. That’s scary news for Chicago hitters, who feasted against Drew Smyly earlier in the week.

Amed Rosario and Spencer Jones homered against Shota Imanaga on Friday. Rosario is likely to come to the plate several times against Peterson, who would appear to be a far easier matchup. Chicago struck out 10 times against Warren on Friday after posting six strikeouts against Smyly on Tuesday.

Peterson flashed competence for stretches during the year but not enough for his season stats to look impressive against a Yankees team that has enough power to turn games around in an instant. Of course, New York probably won’t need to mash. However, four or five runs should do it if Fried takes care of business early.

Jim's Play: 921. Yankees

The Mets can beat the Marlins on Saturday due to Zac Thornton providing them a decent left-handed pitching matchup, but they also have the deeper lineup with power across it and the benefit of playing at home.

Thornton boasts a 2-1 record with a 2.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 29+ innings. He’s given up just 20 hits and two homers while striking out 22 and walking seven. Miami has performed poorly against left-handed pitching this season at 10-17, so Thornton should be able to get the Marlins off the bases early.

Tyler Phillips comes at New York with a strong 3.52 ERA to this point but his 4.62 FIP paints a uglier picture. Phillips has walked 38 hitters in 84+ innings and that inability to go deep in counts could spell trouble against Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette and the rest of the Mets’ lineup. New York has also hit more homers than Miami this year so the Mets have more game-changing bats than their opponent does.

Friday’s loss didn’t feature much offensive production from the Mets but Lindor continued to hit well by belting his ninth homer. He has a 1.098 OPS with three homers and nine RBIs over his last seven games so he leads a dangerous Mets lineup into Saturday as their leadoff hitter.

Friday’s win aside, Miami has not played well on the road. The Marlins were just 21-31 away from home entering the weekend and they also fail to hit lefties much better than .250 as a team. If Thornton pitches to competence and lasts five or six innings the Mets should be able to give the ball to their best relievers with a lead.

Thornton should keep Miami’s hitters in check, Phillips has a command issue and the Mets have more power in their lineup. New York should be able to bounce back from Friday’s loss.

Jim's Play: 902. Mets

The Guardians have three primary advantages against Arizona on Friday: starting pitching, bullpen and home-field advantage. 

First, Cleveland tabs Tanner Bibee (3.89 ERA, 97 SO) to the mound. Bibee’s record stands at a subpar 4-10, but that statistic owes more to Cleveland’s mercurial run support than it does Bibee’s pitching. The Guardians ace has posted some quality starts this season and projects to give Cleveland six solid innings on Friday. Arizona, on the other hand, will start Mitch Bratt (0-1, 6.32 ERA). Bratt is a rookie left-hander who lacks major-league experience.

Experience will be key against Cleveland, which received a much-needed boost from its lineup Wednesday. Kyle Manzardo homered and drove in two runs while Travis Bazzana recorded two hits, one run and one RBI as the Guardians defeated the Cincinnati Reds 6-1. Cleveland will not need another monster performance from its bats Friday, either. A few early runs on Bratt should do the trick if Bibee and Cleveland’s bullpen hold serve.

Lastly, Cleveland’s pitching staff holds the overall edge over Arizona. Entering Friday, Cleveland posted a 3.73 team ERA to Arizona’s 4.21, and also held opponents to a lower batting average. That trend should continue into the middle innings and beyond, as Cleveland can burn opponents with its deep bullpen.

Arizona’s offense is still dangerous. But Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte have not produced up to their standards as of late. Cleveland has every opportunity to exploit those weaknesses, especially with Bibee on the mound. Progressive Field also bodes well for Cleveland, as the Guardians can limit Arizona’s offense if they establish an early lead. Facing an inexperienced starter and holding the better bullpen, Cleveland is the safer bet on Friday.

Jim's Play: 974. Guardians (Platinum Play) 

New York Mets will win Friday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins for several reasons. The Mets carry momentum into the game, boast deeper lineup and match up well at home against Janson Junk.

The Mets took Thursday’s opener 4-2 thanks to efficient pitching and late offensive production. Luis Robert Jr. drove in the go-ahead run, while Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez finished with hits. Miami hasn’t played well recently, enduring a franchise-worst 12-game losing streak earlier in the week. Now they have to take on New York in a matchup they’re likely expected to lose yet again.

Janson Junk is expected to take the mound for Miami. The 28-year-old comes into Friday at 4-6 with a 4.89 ERA. He just returned from an IL stint and can be prone to trouble when hitters force him to middle-in the strike zone. The Mets lineup has plenty of righties and switch hitters that can create traffic at the plate through Lindor, Bo Bichette, Robert, Marcus Semien and Alvarez. Forcing Junk to locate early could spell disaster for Miami early.

New York’s probable starter on Friday will be Freddy Peralta. His overall numbers have been mediocre, but he still flashes electric strikeout potential and owns 113 strikeouts in 113 innings. Miami can struggle to produce at the plate when hitters are forced into deep counts, and Peralta has the swing-and-miss stuff to minimize damage if he limits walks and home runs.

New York has an overall more potent lineup than Miami from top to bottom. Lindor is a great table setter, Bichette provides contact, Robert is speedy with power, and Alvarez is home-run threat near the bottom of the lineup. This Mets team does not need Peralta to shine. Provided he gives them five or six competitive innings, their lineup and bullpen should be able to pick up the slack.

Miami hasn’t necessarily played bad baseball during all of this recent turmoil. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance during stretches of the season but are still hard to trust coming off their historic losing streak. Facing New York at home and putting the more hittable starter on the mound, Miami’s odds don’t seem great in this one. Expect the Mets to take Friday’s game as well.

Jim's Play: 954. Mets (Inner Circle)

The Chicago White Sox can beat the New York Yankees on Wednesday behind Davis Martin and an inviting underdog number at Rate Field.

Martin comes into the game with a respectable 9-5 and 3.49 ERA. 

Chicago will counter New York’s Cam Schlittler (2.07 ERA) and they don’t need a high-scoring game. A couple timely hits and another strong start from Martin should suffice. Chicago nearly did enough on Tuesday’’s 3-2 defeat. The White Sox loaded the bases against Gerrit Cole and tallied two runs in the ninth off David Bednar, thanks to a Chase Meidroth homer. Bednar worked four times in five days so this late charge proved Chicago can attack New York’s bullpen.

The Yankees also happen to be without several of their key bats like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger. Their absence makes Chicago’s lineup look deeper and limits the Yankees’ power. Martin has a better chance at going six innings against a line-up that has depth. Chicago is still a playoff contender and they have some youth power in Munetaka Murakami, Braden Montgomery and Meidroth to change a game with one hit. Chicago at home, Martin starting and New York’s lineup/bullpen compromised gives the White Sox plenty of upside.

Jim's Play: 968. White Sox

The Tampa Bay Rays have several reasons they can beat the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. Tampa Bay owns the more favorable starting-pitching matchup, ranks among baseball’ MLB betting predictions for Wednesday.

Tampa Bay will use Casey Legumina as its opener against Texas left-hander MacKenzie Gore. Legumina enters with a 2-2 record, 3.92 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. He has previously opened games for the Rays, including 1 2/3 scoreless innings against Kansas City on June 25. He also started against Toronto on July 23, allowing one run before Tampa Bay turned the game over to its bulk reliever.

Legumina is not expected to pitch deep into Wednesday’s contest, but that is part of Tampa Bay’s plan. His job is to handle the top of the Texas order once before the Rays begin matching relievers against the Rangers’ lineup. Tampa Bay has successfully used this approach before, including a 13-2 victory over Kansas City in which Legumina opened and Ian Seymour followed with 6 1/3 hitless innings.

MacKenzie Gore is 6-8 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.31 WHIP entering Wednesday. Tampa Bay’s batting order has enough quality right-handed bats to lay into the southpaw early and often with players like Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Christopher Morel behind the plate. Gore’s struggles to prevent walks and baserunners could be magnified against a Rays offense that is usually proficient at manufacturing runs and putting players on base in Tropicana Field.

Tuesday’s outcome lines up for a Tampa Bay bounce-back win as well. The Rays offense was held to one run on Tuesday, but scoring one run creates a prime spot to rebound. Tampa Bay entered play sporting the AL’s best record and team ERA of around 3.53. One subpar night at the plate shouldn’t erase all that progress.

Jim's Play: 966. Rays

The San Diego Padres are getting solid odds to win at home on Wednesday against the Colorado Rockies in Jim Feist’s National League West Game of the Month. San Diego is coming into this one riding high, and they also boast the better lineup against a Colorado team that continues to sabotage itself with bad pitching and even worse defense.

Tuesday’s opener was an instant classic. The Padres won 8-7 after rallying multiple times before scoring the go-ahead run in the ninth. Fernando Tatis Jr. racked up five hits, but it was Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado who led the Padres lineup in piling up opportunities against Colorado starter Lucas Ott. San Diego finished the game with men on base several times, and they should have another good chance to score early against rookie Gabriel Hughes. 

Hughes has been effective through two starts, but he has yet to pitch in the hitter friendly confines of Petco Park against this deep Padres lineup. Tatis, Machado and Merrill can all mash the ball out of any yard, and Padres hitters can also draw walks to push up Hughes’ pitch count and force Colorado to rely on their overtaxed bullpen once again.

Speaking of Colorado’s bullpen, it was ugly Tuesday night. Five different relievers threw in the opener, and Colorado’s bullpen issued walks at key moments and coughed up scoring chances all night. Colorado’s defense didn’t exactly help matters, committing four errors. 

San Diego has late-inning advantage as well. Mason Miller struck out the side in Tuesday’s save situation, and while Colorado put up seven runs in the opener, two of their best hitters went a combined 0-10 with seven strikeouts. Hunter Goodman and TJ Rumfield were a combined 0-10.

The Padres have won four games in a row dating back to their comeback win against Miami on Sunday. They are taking the Rockies in what looks like a pitchers duel due to their superior offense, strong bullpen and inability for Colorado to take care of the baseball. 

Jim's Play: Take: 960. Padres (NL West Game of the Month)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have plenty working in their favor on Wednesday if they hope to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates. Eduardo Rodriguez and an Arizona offense that finally broke out during Tuesday’s 8-7 win both give Arizona a good chance to  Wednesday’s early game.

Rodriguez certainly gives Arizona the edge on starting pitching, as he owns a 9-3 record with a 2.64 ERA and 86 strikeouts on the season. The southpaw has been Arizona’s most reliable starter and should be able to contain a Pittsburgh lineup that has struggled against quality pitching at times. Jared Jones will toe the rubber for Pittsburgh after posting a 3.72 ERA in fewer starts than Rodríguez this season.

Arizona’s offense piled up 16 hits on Tuesday, scoring runs in each of the game’s first four frames to take an early 6-0 lead. James McCann went yard twice while collecting four hits on the day. Nolan Arenado had three hits while the Diamondbacks continued to manufacture chances. Arizona wasn’t able to score on every one of those opportunities, but repeating that kind of offensive activity is promising for the winner-take-all finale.

Arizona simply has more weapons and a deeper lineup than Pittsburgh. Entering Wednesday, Arizona ranked well above Pittsburgh in batting average, runs, hits and total offensive production. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and the heart of Arizona’s order gives them more avenues to produce runs than Pittsburgh typically has.

Tuesday’s game wore both bullpens down as each team played until the 12th inning. For that reason, Rodríguez pitching deep into the game is even more important. If he can go six or seven innings while limiting Pittsburgh’s offense, Arizona can preserve its weaker relievers and give a late lead to its best relievers.

Arizona has the better starting pitcher, boasts a more powerful lineup and wins Tuesday’s marathon game. For those reasons, Arizona is the side I will be on early on Wednesday. 

Jim's Play: 953. Diamondbacks

Boston holds the edge in starting pitching matchups, recent momentum and its lineup as a whole. Jake Bennett goes for the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday and he’s pitched to a 6-3 record with a 2.58 ERA. Bennett has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts and his ERA over that span is even better at 1.64. His great command should limit the opposition from making hard contact against him, keeping the Red Sox in the game through the early innings.

Gage Jump takes the hill for the Athletics. He comes in with a 3-6 record and a 4.42 ERA on the season. In his last outing he gave up six runs against Arizona. He’ll now face a Boston team that is especially strong against left-handed pitching with a 17-10 record when opponents send a southpaw to the mound.

Speaking of momentum, Boston comes in riding a wave. The Red Sox have won 17 of their last 19 games and have won six straight series. They also took game one of this series, 4-2, on Monday. The Red Sox offense doesn’t need to be rolling with Bennett on the mound but they have the ability to manufacture runs against Jump and then capitalize on an Oakland bullpen that gave up a go-ahead grand slam in game one.

Jake Bennett’s recent performance, Boston’s record against lefties and Oakland’s inability to finish games has me taking the Red Sox here on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 923. Red Sox 

Bet the Tampa Bay Rays to defeat the Texas Rangers on Tuesday for three main reasons. Tampa Bay has played much better baseball as of late, owns one of baseball’s best home-field advantages and entered the day better-rested than Texas.

The Rays have won six of their last seven games and recently swept Cleveland in three games. Tampa Bay won both ends of the Cleveland series by the shutout. Tampa Bay enters Tuesday sporting the AL’s best record at 62-43. At home, Tampa Bay has been even better, going 38-15 in their own ballpark.

Griffin Jax gets the start for Tampa Bay and owns a 6-7 record with a 3.89 ERA. Jax should allow the Rays to jump out to an early lead and he’ll have one of the game’s best bullpens behind him fresh off of rest. Tampa Bay didn’t play Monday so they’ll enter Tuesday night’s game well-rested. Texas played Monday afternoon in Arlington and then had to travel to Florida.

Cal Quantrill will toe the rubber for Texas and is coming in at 3-3 with a 4.05 ERA. Quantrill will need to lean on his team’s bats against Tampa Bay because he doesn’t miss many bats. Tampa Bay should be able to put pressure on the Texas defense by hitting the ball in play. Expect Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Tampa Bay’ lineup to manufacture runs.

Texas has some big bats, but Tampa Bay counters with arguably baseball’s best combination of pitching and home-field advantage.  Tampa Bay is simply the more trustworthy side to back on Tuesday with Jax on the mound, one of baseball’s elite bullpens at their backs and playing their best baseball of the season.

Jim's Play: 914. Rays 

The Cincinnati Reds are huge favorites to take Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians for one main reason: Chase Burns.

Burns sports a stellar 12-1 record with a 2.42 ERA and 124 strikeouts. He can flat-out overpower hitters with his fastball and his overall swing-and-miss stuff will pose problems against a Cleveland offense that ranks among the worst in baseball. Guardians hitters have totaled five runs in their last four games, dropping five in a row.

The Guardians have answered with right-hander Slade Cecconi, who has a 4-7 record with a 4.60 ERA. He was solid in June but roughed up in the month’s first week with eight earned runs allowed and 15 hits allowed over 8 2/3 innings. That gives Cincinnati hitters like Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart a chance to build an early lead for Burns.

The Reds also come into this one hotter, winning four of their last five contests. Cleveland got swept in Tampa Bay over the weekend and will play two games in one day. They’ll need Game 1 to set them up for Sunday’s nightcap, but Cincinnati can win with Burns on the mound and limit its bullpen’s workload.

Plus, there’s always bragging rights with these two battling in Ohio. Cleveland won two of three last time these teams played. Factoring in Cincinnati’s hotter streak and home-field advantage, the Reds are the team to back in Game 1.

If Cincinnati can win Game 1, it sends a strong message to Cleveland. The Guardians took the opener 7-6, but Cinci has the opportunity to flip the script at home.

Jim's Play: 932. Reds Game 1 

Atlanta is coming into this series with a 62-43 record while New York sports a 44-62 record. Most people will look at those records and pick Atlanta. Jim Feist isn’t most people, he’s taking New York today as a very small home dog.

Mets rookie Zac Thornton has been lights out through his first four starts. He carries a 1.93 ERA along with a WHIP of just 0.86. Thornton has surrendered only one earned run during his last 19 innings pitched while stranding batters on base over the last two starts for 13 straight frames of scoreless relief. He also presents a first time look against Atlanta, as the young left-hander has yet to face the Braves in his professional career.

Atlanta will start veteran Martin Perez against Thornton. Perez’s 3.38 ERA doesn’t appear too alarming, but the current Mets team has seen success against him posting a batting average of .304 and an oWAR of .369 over 144 career plate appearances. Expect New York to put guys on base and challenge Perez early in this one.

Let’s not forget how this series is even set up. The Mets stayed at home this weekend and blazed through the Dodgers scoring eight runs in their Sunday win. Meanwhile, Atlanta had to go to Baltimore and pitch into extra innings to win a close 3-2 affair before heading to New York for game one of this series. Atlanta gets set to face a well rested rookie pitcher that they have not seen before in just a matter of hours.

The Mets do not need to be the better team across 162 games. They simply need to be the better team tonight and their pitching matchup, familiarity with Perez and series schedule provide them a real chance to win this game.

Jim's Play: 956. Mets (NL East Game of the Month)

The Washington Nationals have the advantage of the hotter bats entering Monday’s game and they’ll take on Max Scherzer in his banged-up return from the injured list. Scherzer hasn’t pitched since the middle of June due to back spasms, missed time during the All-Star break due to a thumb injury, owns a 1-4 record with a 10.23 ERA and could have his pitch count managed on Monday.

Washington will get some high-leverage opportunities against the Blue Jays’ bullpen even if Scherzer pitches well for a few innings. The Nationals also enter this matchup riding significant momentum, as they cracked 10 runs against Arizona on Sunday. CJ Abrams and James Wood each smoked a pair of homers, while Wood notched his 30th long ball of the season.

Abrams has thrived since the All-Star break and both he and Wood are powerful left-handed bats who can cause damage early in the game against Scherzer. Washington will counter with Andrew Alvarez, who has gone 2-3 with a 4.22 ERA. Alvarez won’t need to be fantastic because Toronto simply hasn’t scored consistently.

The Blue Jays plated just one run Sunday, have dropped seven of their last 10 and hit below .200 against Kansas City this weekend. They’re heading into this series with a negative road record. Toronto is getting some juice based on Scherzer’s track record, but he’s coming off an injury, owns ugly season-long stats and could be pitch-counted by Matzman.

Take Washington to win at home, swinging the hottest bats of the two teams.

Jim's Play: 974. Nationals

Jim Feist has the Tampa Bay Rays to complete the sweep over the Cleveland Guardians in his Early Sunday MLB Lineup Prediction.

Through the first two games of this series, Tampa Bay put their foot down. They won 11-3 on Friday before blanking Cleveland 3-0 on Saturday. The Rays racked up 24 hits during those two wins while their pitchers held Cleveland to three runs combined. The Guardians are now mired in a four-game losing streak and have scored four runs over their last three contests.

Drew Rasmussen will take the ball for Tampa Bay and he’ll do so sporting an 8-5 record, 3.28 ERA and 103 strikeouts. Cleveland will have left-handed pitcher Parker Messick take the hill against them, but the Rays should have the advantage anyway. Tampa Bay has gone 19-10 against southpaws this season despite Messick’s strong 2.68 ERA.

Home-field advantage also tilts the scale toward Tampa Bay a bit as they have been exceptional at Tropicana Field this season. Entering play on Sunday, Tampa Bay owns a 35-15 record at home. Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have combined for six hits over the first two games of this series, and the Rays have received depth contributions across their batting order. Tampa Bay Rays simply have more ways to score runs than Cleveland.

Lastly, Rasmussen will not need to be spectacular in this matchup. He just has to keep attacking this Cleveland lineup that has no clue what to do at the plate right now. Tampa Bay has too many advantages to pick against here.

Jim's Play: 914. Rays 

St. Louis has the clear edge in starters. Rhett Lowder (3-7, 5.75 ERA) will take the ball for Cincinnati and Dustin May for the Cardinals. Lowder hasn’t been able to go deep into games lately and spent some time pitching out of the Cincinnati bullpen. He’s back in the rotation but allows opponents to work frequent two-strike counts and the Cardinals (entering play Thursday) are batting .320 with their two strikes. May has pitched much better at Busch Stadium than on the road, posting a 3.65 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 10 starts.

May also can be attacked with opposite-field contact and St. Louis has enough speed to manufacture runs against Cincinnati’ relief corps. The Cardinals are averaging just under 4.4 runs per game but should be able to push Lowder around early, getting to the Cincinnati bullpen by the middle innings.

Both of these meetings at Busch Stadium have been decided by St. Louis. The Cardinals swept the Reds in June, scoring 13 runs against Cincinnati’ bullpen in three games and winning Sunday’s finale 5-3. Cincinnati’s bullpen has struggled mightily against St. Louis’ contact skills, speed and ability to manufacture runs.

The Cardinals lost 10-6 at Arizona on Thursday but there’s always something to be said for playing with something to prove. St. Louis scored four runs in the ninth inning and that may still be in the lineup’s head Friday against Lowder.

May has pitched significantly better at Busch Stadium this season and Lowder owns an ERA just north of six. Factor in that St. Louis swept Cincinnati three games at Busch Stadium this season and the Cardinals are just a safer play.

Jim's Play: 912. Cardinals (NL Central Game of the Month)