Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 145 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I'll be surprised if Chris Beard lets his Red Raiders get into a track meet with West Virginia. Beard is an excellent coach, and Texas Tech and West Virginia played two games that went into OT last year and both were way under this total in regulation. Texas Tech is slowing the pace down on offense quite a bit more in Big 12 play than they were in non-conference action. West Virginia can struggle in halfcourt sets on offense. I expect a game where neither team gets many easy looks. Take the under. |
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01-13-18 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | 82-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans haven't played very well in their last couple games. They were blown away by Ohio State and then were fortunate to win in overtime against Rutgers. Expect Tom Izzo's bunch to play much better here. I think that means improved defensive intensity. Michigan doesn't want any kind of fast paced basketball here. The Wolverines have done a nice job controlling tempo in the past, and they are much better on defense this year than they have been in recent years. A rivalry game tends to lead to better defensive efforts on the whole. Take the under. |
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01-11-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 142.5 | 57-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders defense has been the best in Conference USA for the last few seasons. They should be the best again this year. MTSU is allowing only 0.877 points per possession inside the conference so far. Louisiana Tech no longer plays at a really quick pace like they did when current Florida coach Mike White was there. The Bulldogs could only score 61 points at MTSU last year in a 71-61 loss. Both of the teams are very similar to last year's teams, and I don't see a reason for this kind of adjustment on the total. MTSU likes to slow the game down and they have slightly less offensive weapons this year with Jacorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw having graduated at the end of last season. Take the under. |
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01-11-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Elon OVER 155.5 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the CAA. The Seahawks are also terrible on defense. Wilmington is allowing 1.143 points per possession for the season, which is 339th out of 351 teams in the country. They are allowing teams to shoot a whopping 45% from 3 point range. Elon's offense has been excellent of late. The Phoenix shoot up a bunch of 3's, and they should get the open looks here. Elon has sped up their tempo since CAA play started up. Elon's defense is worse than a year ago, and UNC Wilmington should get up a bunch of shots here and score a solid amount of points. The early move down on this total isn't justified. Take the over. |
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01-10-18 | Missouri State v. Evansville UNDER 127 | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Offense should be hard to come by in this Missouri Valley Conference showdown. Missouri State is 51st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Evansville is 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Missouri State is 97th in offensive efficiency. Evansville is 213th in offensive efficiency. Evansville really slows the pace of the game. They rank 339th in overall tempo. Missouri State isn't much faster at 317th. This one should be played to a pace of around 61 possessions. Both teams are better at not fouling than they are at getting to the line. In their last 7 games vs. a D 1 opponent, Evansville hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of those games. Missouri State hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of their last six games either. These teams are consistently low scoring. Take the under. |
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01-10-18 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 150.5 | 82-86 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have almost always ended up playing at a slow tempo under Bruce Weber when things get tight. Early in the year, they sometimes run against lesser opponents, but in the Big 12 this has been a team that likes to force games into a half court contest. We're seeing signs of this already this season. Oklahoma State has played against a bunch of teams that push the tempo. I believe their numbers are a bit skewed toward the fast side thanks to games against teams like Oklahoma, UT Rio Grande Valley (7th in nation in pace), and West Virginia. The Cowboys are more efficient on defense than offense as well. I think this total should be in the 144 or 145 area, so I see a significant amount of value here. Take the under. |
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01-10-18 | George Washington v. Davidson UNDER 138 | 45-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have been great at forcing a slow tempo this year. Since December 1, George Washington has played one game that has gone over this total. That was last game against Rhode Island when the Rams torched the nets for 81 points in a 81-60 win at GW. Davidson is playing at a slower tempo this year. They rank 250th in tempo. They were in the top 100 in pace just two years ago. George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and neither team fouls very much. That's a big bonus in addition to the slow tempo. Barring some very high shooting numbers from long range, this one should stay under. Take the under. |
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01-09-18 | Magic v. Mavs OVER 213.5 | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks offense has been tremendous in recent games. Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. They are second to only the Golden State Warriors. Dallas also ranks 6th in the NBA in tempo in the last five games. The Mavericks had previously been playing at a much slower tempo. Along with their strong offense, Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Orlando has been pushing the pace all year, and they have been terrible on defense all season as well. The Magic are 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are sixth in tempo. I don't see much quality defense being played here. Take the over. |
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01-09-18 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 207.5 | 90-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TAKEDOWN* The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat tonight. Kyle Lowry is out of the lineup for the Raptors. Lowry is definitely a key guy in the offense, and I expect them to slow things down a bit without him playing. Miami is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Heat have shot blocking big man Hassan Whiteside back in the lineup, and that makes their defense much better. The three referees in this game are some of the best under refs you'll find in the NBA. They have career under percentages of 54.8% unders, 54.6% unders, and 52.9% unders. That's definitely a nice boost to the under here. The under is 60-29-1 in the Heat's last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The sharp money likes the under here. Only 28% of bets are on the under, but 69% of the money is on the under. Take the under. |
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01-09-18 | Canucks v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NHL Total Domination* The Capitals and Canucks are in a nice Over spot on Tuesday night. There is a lot of value in many different angles here that play well to the Over. Head to head wise, this has been an Over series as of late. The Over is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings in Washington and is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings. This is also a case where the Capitals can really use their offensive firepower and expect to score in bunches. The Canucks have allowed 5 goals or more in 7 of their last 12 games. This team is completely a mess on the defensive end and rank near the bottom in the NHL with 3.26 goals against. While we know what we should see from the Washington offense, the Canucks have stepped things up offensively when playing on the road. Vancouver is averaging 2.85 goals per game and if they can come anywhere near that mark, this one should turn into a shootout. Given the trends here and the offensive styles of both teams, this one should see plenty of scoring chances both ways. Take Over. |
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01-09-18 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 141.5 | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 293rd in the nation in overall tempo. They set up a zone and slow the game down. Eastern Michigan has been reliant on getting to the line on the offensive end in many years of late. They aren't very good in half court sets. Central Michigan ranks in the top ten in least fouls committed so far this year. Central Michigan is 259th in overall tempo this year. The Chippewas were 5th last year. They have obviously undergone a significant tempo change this season. I don't expect to see them force the pace as they did last year against Eastern Michigan. This is definitely a rivalry game and on the whole I believe that helps the under as the defenses stay fully engaged most of the times in these matchups. Take the under. |
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01-09-18 | Ball State v. Ohio UNDER 155.5 | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without their star big man in Jason Carter. They have very little inside presence. Jordan Dartis who averages 13.3 points per game, is questionable in this one. Dartis has a hip injury. Ball State is also without two players. Jontrell Walker is suspended after being arrested recently. Walker averaged 8 points per game. Zach Gunn is out with an injury and he averages 5.5 points per game. Ball State has slowed their tempo down noticeably in the last few games. They are clearly playing slower than last year. Ohio plays a little quicker, but they are far less efficient on offense. Neither team is good at getting to the line and both teams don't foul much at all. The injuries here combined with Ball State's slow it down style of late makes me think this one stays below 150. Take the under. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 46 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs played in a really high scoring game against Oklahoma, but I don't think we'll see anything like that in the title game. Georgia plays at the 127th ranked tempo out of 130 teams. Alabama's tempo is 95th out of 130. Georgia is playing at an extremely slow pace, and Alabama prefers to play slowly as well. Georgia runs the ball on 71% of their plays from scrimmage for the season. Alabama runs it on 66% of their plays from scrimmage. Two teams pounding the ball and using the clock is ideal for an under as long as you have defenses that can stop the run. Adjusted for strength of schedule played- Alabama's run defense ranks first in the country in run defense. Georgia ranks ninth. These two secondaries are both excellent as well, and neither of these passing games are particularly dynamic especially when it comes to creating big plays. This should be a hard hitting contest where the under holds value. Take the under. |
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01-07-18 | Florida State v. Miami-FL UNDER 151 | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles are both excellent on the defensive end. Miami is 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Hurricanes are third in effective field goal percentage defense. Florida State is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. Miami is playing faster than they were last year, but I still don't see them wanting to have a track meet here. Only four of their games so far this year have been played to a pace of higher than 70 possessions. Their two games against Florida State last year played to a 62 and 57 pace. Both of these offenses have been inconsistent this year, and they are up against one of the best defenses they have faced yet. Take the under. |
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01-07-18 | William & Mary v. Drexel OVER 154 | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* William & Mary has played 14 games this year. Of those games, 12 of the 14 have gone over this total. The Tribe are first in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage at a whopping 43.9%. The Tribe are fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage. William & Mary has been great on offense in the last few years, but their defense has continued to be a problem. It is again this year. They are allowing 1.116 points per possession (318th in the country). Drexel wants to run under Coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons have picked up the tempo in CAA play so far. They are third in tempo in CAA action. William & Mary is first. This game should be played at a quick pace. Drexel is allowing an eye popping 1.233 points per possession in their three CAA games this year. The Dragons allowd 108 points to William & Mary in one of the meetings last year. Take the over. |
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01-07-18 | Jazz v. Heat UNDER 198 | 102-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz meet on Sunday afternoon in Miami. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against one another. Earlier this year, they played to a 84-74 game. Six of their last seven meetings have finished at 195 points or less. Miami is much better defensively now that they have Whiteside back in the middle. The Jazz defense isn't as good without Gobert, but they are still better than league average there. Miami ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the past eight games. The Jazz rank as the fifth slowest in tempo during that time. Utah also ranks dead last in offensive efficiency. Sunday day unders have been a strong angle in recent years- and when you have a home team playing at 97.8 possessions or fewer on the season and the game is played at 5 pm EST or earlier on a Sunday the under is hitting 61% in the last nine years. Take the under here. |
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01-07-18 | Niagara v. Marist OVER 157.5 | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Niagara Purple Eagles rank 13th in the nation in least time spent per offensive possession. They are shooting it on average after only 14.8 seconds of their possession. This team is flying up and down the floor. Niagara also ranks 98th out of 351 in offensive efficiency. What about defense? They are terrible. They rank 330th out of 351. Niagara is definitely a team that can make games very high scoring. Marist is shooting it about one full second on average quicker than last year. Marist is 323rd in defensive efficiency, so we have two teams that prefer to play fast here and two teams who are terrible on the defensive end. A big bonus is the trips to the charity stripe. Marist is 40th out of 351 in the nation in FT per field goal attempted. Niagara is 52nd in the nation in FT/FGA. There should be plenty of free throws here. I had this number quite a bit higher than this. Take the over. |
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01-07-18 | Temple v. UCF UNDER 133 | 39-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are an elite defense. They ranked 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 7th so far this season. Temple was 168th in that statistic last year, and they are 117th so far this year. UCF is expected to be without point guard BJ Taylor again for this one. Taylor is the best scorer on the team. Chance McSpadden is doubtful and he has averaged 6 pts per game this year as well. UCF relies on getting to the line to score, and Temple is good at defending without fouling. Temple and UCF are both happy to play at a slow tempo. Temple is 268th in overall tempo out of 351 in the country. UCF is 291st. This is an early start on a Sunday as well which is a positive for the under in the long run according to the numbers. I think this one stays in the 120's. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | Duke v. NC State OVER 166 | 85-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils are easily first in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging a whopping 1.256 points per possession on offense this season. Duke is playing from inside out this year, and NC State doesn't have the defensive presence in the inside to slow down the Duke frontcourt. Duke's average possession length is 16th quickest in the country. NC State is 25th in that same statistic. These two teams are both flying up and down the floor. Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the country in offensive rebounding. Look for a very high scoring game here. Take the over. |
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01-06-18 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 145 | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 7th in average possession length out of 351 teams last year. They were pushing the pace like crazy. This year they rank 297th out of 351 teams. They have slowed things down dramatically. It's hard for the oddsmakers to make numbers on this team's games. Kent State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent since Rob Senderoff has been there. This is a team that sometimes plays really quick, and sometimes is forced into a low possessions game. They very rarely dictate the pace. With the tempo I expect in this game, it would take some very high shooting percentages to go over this number. Kent State relies on free throws for a lot of their offensive production and Central Michigan is top five in the nation at not fouling. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | The Citadel v. Wofford OVER 163.5 | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Wofford has an offense that should shred up the Southern Conference. Wofford just shoots the ball so well. Fletcher Magee is shooting 53.4% from 3 point range on the season and he has taken 104 shots from 3 point range. The Citadel will probably finish first or second in the nation in overall tempo this year. As high as this number is, Citadel has gone over it in 11 of their 14 games so far this year. Their defense is among the bottom 20 in the nation. Wofford and Citadel have played 4 times in the last couple years. The lowest final total was 169 points. The other 3 games all finished at 188 points or higher. Take the over. |
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01-06-18 | UCLA v. California OVER 155.5 | 107-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are going to push the pace all year long. UCLA is 22nd in the nation in average possession length. They are only using half the shot clock on average to put up a shot. UCLA ranks in the top 50 at getting to the line. Cal prefers to play fast too, and their defense has been really poor this year. Cal has been giving up a lot of second chance points. Cal ranks 7th in the nation FT attempts per field goal attempted. Expect lots of free throws in this game. This one should get to 160 or higher. Take the over. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs started the season by dominating on offense through being more aggressive with play calling. Kansas City has a ton of skill position weapons, and they were utilizing them well. They got cautious again in the middle of the season, and they slumped. Late in the season, they changed play callers and things improved again. I expect some more aggressive play calling here. The Titans secondary has been a major weakness down the stretch. I expect Kansas City to be able to get some big plays through the air. Kansas City is second in the NFL in yards per play this year. The Kansas City defense isn't good. Eric Berry is a huge loss for this defense, and the Chiefs allowed 5.6 yards per play on the year, which was 26th in the NFL. Marcus Mariota does have some weapons on the outside and if they get behind which they likely will here, look for some more aggressive play calling from the Titans as well. Both defenses have been vulnerable to big plays, and this total is set at a low number. Take the over. |
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01-06-18 | Southern Illinois v. Valparaiso UNDER 142 | 72-83 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders really miss Alec Peters. Peters was their go to guy the last few years, and their offense is struggling without him. Valpo was 139th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 247th so far this year. Southern Illinois has consistently been a MVC team who slows the pace down. The Salukis are 284th in average possession length so far this year. They also rank 57th in effective field goal percentage defense. Both of these teams have been wasting a lot of possessions with turnovers of late. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | Duquesne v. Fordham UNDER 133 | 64-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Fordham is 284th in overall tempo this year. Duquesne is 304th in tempo. This should be a very slow paced game. Keith Dambrot has the Dukes playing a much slower pace this year in his first year at the school. The oddsmakers are trying to react to that change, but they aren't quite there yet. Both of these teams have very poor jump shooting numbers on the year. The combination of a slow tempo and two poor offenses is great for the under here. My number here was 127. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 137.5 | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a lot of trouble forcing the pace against Virginia. North Carolina has never gotten a matchup against Virginia to a higher tempo than 67 possessions dating back to 2014. Last year, the two meetings between these two were played at 61 possessions and 55 possessions. Virginia is tremendous at making you play their game. This game is at Virginia, and that helps here. While North Carolina is playing fast again this year, they are 100th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They rely on second chance points, and Virginia is great on the defensive glass. Virginia is only 34th in the nation in offensive efficiency, but they are easily first in defensive efficiency. I see them dictating a lower scoring game. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 146 | 46-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are similar in that they are both significantly better on defense than offense. Georgia is 186th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they are a very impressive 16th in effective field goal percentage defense. Alabama is 94th on offense in this stat and 47th on defense. Georgia is playing quite a bit slower this year. The Bulldogs are 267th in overall tempo in the country. Georgia has only had 2 of their 13 games go over this number in regulation this year. Take the under. |
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01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 206 | 102-100 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Washington Wizards are healthy once again, and their offense has taken off since they got everyone back in the fold. Washington has scored 111 points or more in five of their last six games. The Wizards have scored 121 or more in three of those contests. Memphis isn't playing as slow as they did earlier this year. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo in the last six games. The Grizzlies have gotten some very good offensive production out of Tyreke Evans. Memphis ranks 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.146 points per possession in their last six games. What about Washington? The Wizards are third in that same stat, averaging an impressive 1.164 points per possession. Both of these teams have been big under teams for the season as a whole, which gives us line value here. Now that they have changed their stripes, I'll look to go over the total with them in spots. I think this number is too low. Take the over. |
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01-05-18 | James Madison v. Hofstra OVER 147 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes are playing nearly six possessions quicker so far this year vs. a year ago. James Madison also ranked 196th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 318th in that same statistic so far this year. James Madison has played six of their last seven games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. If this game is played at that tempo, the over has an excellent chance of cashing. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in the last three years in offensive efficiency. So far this year they are 86th, but I think they will improve on offense in league play. Hofstra's defense is very weak. The Pride prefer to outscore teams in high scoring games, and they should push the pace here once again. Hofstra has only had 5 games stay under this total so far this year. They have had eight games finish at 161 points or higher, so Hofstra is often involved in very high scoring games. Take the over. |
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01-05-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Towson OVER 152.5 | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Towson Tigers made it clear in the preseason they wanted to play faster this year. Coach Pat Skerry said he wanted his team to have chances in transition. Towson hasn't played much quicker this year, but it is at least partially because of who they have played against. The Tigers have faced a bunch of very slow paced teams. That changes here. UNC Wilmington ranks 11th in the nation in tempo. That is the fastest paced team Towson has played this year. In their game against Oakland (15th in tempo in the country), Towson lost 97-86 and the pace was a blistering 80 possessions. Wilmington's defense ranks 322nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Towson should get to the line a bunch against them as well since they foul at a very high rate. Both teams are good at getting second chance points. Take the over. |
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01-04-18 | Arizona v. Utah UNDER 145.5 | 94-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have decided to play stall ball in their last two games. It has worked really well. I expect to see it again here. In their last two games, Utah is using a remarkable 23.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock to shoot the ball on average. Their win at Oregon saw a mind boggling low pace of just 55 possessions. They followed that up with a low 60 possession game against Oregon State. Arizona has more talent than Utah, and Utah isn't going to want to get into a high scoring game against the Wildcats here. Arizona is a team that often plays to the pace of their opponent. If Utah is slowing things down even close to the rate they have been in recent games, it will be very hard to get a game above a total in the mid 140's. Take the under. |
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01-04-18 | South Alabama v. Texas State UNDER 130 | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* South Alabama likes to push the pace, but they are terrible on offensive when it comes to efficiency. South Alabama ranks among the 50 worst teams in the country in turnovers as a percentage of their offensive possessions. They are 313th out of 351 in offensive efficiency overall. South Alabama's defense ranks 88th best in the nation in defensive efficiency. This team has been getting after it on defense. Texas State is 267th in offensive efficiency. The Bobcats also rank 345th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. This is a team that does a tremendous job slowing the game down. South Alabama has had 7 of their 14 games go under this total despite playing quickly. Texas State has seen 8 go under this number and 1 push of their 15 games. Good line value here. Take the under. |
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01-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* The Golden Knights and Blues will play in a real grind it out kind of game here on Thursday night. Both of these teams are very lockdown and as of late things have been completely shut down because of their back lines. Both the Golden Knights and Blues do not allow anything easy on the defensive end and given the goalie play here, the Under is a nice move. Marc-Andre Fleury owns just a 1.77 GAA and since returning has been on a tear. For the Blues, Carter Hutton has been one of the best backups in the NHL. He owns a 7-3 record and has not allowed more than 3 goals in any of his starts. Since Jaden Schwartz has gone down for St. Louis, things have also been a struggle for them. They have gone over the total just one time since he went down. Look for a very physical and tough game both ways. Take Under. |
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01-04-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oral Roberts OVER 150.5 | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastodons have been great at forcing the tempo the last couple years. Fort Wayne has played 17 games this year and stunningly they haven't played a single game below a tempo of 70 possessions. Of their 17 games this year, 15 of them have gone over this total. Oral Roberts has played quick with teams like Arkansas, Nebraska Omaha, and UNLV already this year. I don't think they'll be able to slow the game down very much here either. Oral Roberts has played 7 of their 16 games over this number. ORU ranks 288th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Fort Wayne is 19th in the country in overall tempo, and they have torched the nets in Summit League play the last couple years. They should be able to do it again this year. This number is several points too low. Take the over. |
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01-04-18 | Tennessee-Martin v. Austin Peay UNDER 137 | 69-75 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors play a completely different style than they did a year ago. Last year, Austin Peay was playing quickly and had one of the worst defenses in the country. They brought in a new coach, Matt Figgers, who has this team playing aggressive defense and forcing loads of turnovers. Tennessee Martin plays a unique zone defense that is typically a 3-2 zone, and zones have given Austin Peay serious problems so far this year. Austin Peay is scoring 0.78 points per possession against zone defenses on the season. Tennessee Martin ranks 332nd out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. I'm counting on them to slow the pace of the game with their zone. Both teams rank among the 60 worst teams in the country at taking care of the basketball. A lot of turnovers in the halfcourt means a lot of wasted possessions. Take the under here. |
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01-03-18 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 211.5 | 133-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to get Brook Lopez back tonight. Lopez is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Kyle Kuzma is probable as well, and beat writers have reported the coaching staff says he will be available to play. Andre Roberson is out for Oklahoma City in this one. That's key because Roberson is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Roberson is also a major liability on offense. Without him, the Thunder are better on offense and much weaker on defense. Roberson has missed three games due to injury this year, and the Thunder have allowed 116 points in two of the three games. The Lakers are allowing 1.174 points per possession in their last three games. That is second worst in the NBA during that stretch. OKC is allowing 1.122 points per possession, which is 22nd. The Thunder offense has been much better in recent games. They struggled much of the year on this end, but OKC is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. In Eric Lewis and Zach Zarba, two of the three officials in this game are big over refs. The over is 368-336 in Zarba's games. The over is 355-317 in the games Lewis has been a referee. Take the over. |
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01-03-18 | Valparaiso v. Bradley UNDER 135.5 | 71-80 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves were 5-27 two years ago. They are 11-4 so far this year. Brian Wardle is doing a tremendous job turning this team around. It all starts with defense. Bradley ranks 24th in the country in defensive efficiency, and they are 18th in effective field goal percentage defense. Valparaiso enters a much tougher league this year as they jump from the Horizon League to the MVC. The Crusaders are struggling as well because Tevonn Walker still isn't 100% from having Mono for several weeks. Valpo's offense ranks 253rd in offensive efficiency. Bradley ranks 239th in that category. This look like a good old fashioned Missouri Valley Conference defensive duel. I don't think either team will find many open looks here. Take the under. |
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01-03-18 | East Carolina v. South Florida UNDER 132.5 | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The South Florida Bulls and East Carolina Pirates get together in a game that should be really ugly. South Florida ranks 341st in the nation in overall tempo. They are the home team here and they should be able to control the tempo here. South Florida is 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have serious turnover problems, and they can't shoot it. Combine that with their slow tempo and you get a team that can put up some really low numbers. East Carolina is even worse on offense. The Pirates rank 344th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country. Like USF, they are in the bottom 50 in the country in turnover percentage on offensive possessions. They have scored 53 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Both teams rank in the top 75 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The defenses should have a big edge here. This line is 8 points too high in my opinion. Take the under for a top rated play. |
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01-03-18 | George Washington v. Duquesne UNDER 132 | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Duquesne has been very consistent at playing at a slow pace this year. The Dukes have seen 7 of their 14 games finish with 132 points total or less. George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the country in overall tempo. This team has played 12 straight games that have finished at 139 points or lower. This total is lower than that, but it shows the consistency of George Washington in keeping the game low scoring. In this contest, they'll face another opponent who wants to walk it up. Duquesne is 300th in overall tempo this year. The Dukes have played the weakest schedule in the country so far this year, so while their offensive numbers are decent, I'm not convinced they will stay that way. This projects as a game that finishes around 60 possessions, and that makes me project a game in the mid 120's. Take the under. |
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01-02-18 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt UNDER 150 | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores scored 54 points in the second half of their loss to Florida this past Saturday, but this is a team that has struggled to shoot the ball much of the year. Vanderbilt ranks 320th in the nation in average length of possession on offense. That is an extremely slow pace of play. To see a total this high with a team that plays that slowly is a rarity. Alabama ranks 63rd in the country in overall tempo, but the Crimson Tide are quite a bit better on defense than they are on offense. Alabama ranks 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency. I see this one playing out to a tempo of about 68 possessions, and at that pace it takes some very high shooting percentages to get over this number. Take the under. |
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01-02-18 | Ohio v. Central Michigan UNDER 149.5 | 50-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have completely changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 5th in the nation in overall tempo last year. Where are they so far this year? The Chippewas rank 295th out of 351 in tempo this year. Coach Davis knows he doesn't have the same kind of offensive firepower this year, and he wants his team to take care of the basketball and play defense to win lower scoring games. It has worked thus far. Central Michigan has played 8 of their 10 Division One opponent games to a total of 147 or less. Ohio plays pretty quickly, but I think the Bobcats will be better on defense than offense in conference play this year. Ohio tends to put up a lot of shots from long range, and the strength of Central Michigan's defense is defending the three. I think this number is too high based on the large change from Central Michigan from last year to this year. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 221 | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers do play quickly, but because their offense isn't efficient and their defense is very good, they still rarely have extremely high scoring games. In the last six games, the 76ers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th in offensive efficiency. Phoenix ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. The Suns clearly aren't playing at the ultra quick tempo they did earlier this year. Phoenix is 25th in offensive efficiency in the last six games in the NBA, and they are a solid 10th in defensive efficiency. This high of a number is usually reserved for elite offenses or the worst defenses in the NBA. These teams don't fit that bill. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Washington v. UCLA OVER 159.5 | 53-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are playing at the 15th quickest pace of any team in the country (average possession length). UCLA is going to push the tempo regardless of what kind of defense you play. Washington is 66th in that same category (out of 351 teams) so they are looking to push the pace too. UCLA has multiple shooters that should be able to shoot over the Washington zone. The Bruins will also get plenty of second chance opportunities against the zone. Washington and UCLA are both getting to the line at a very high rate. There should be a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one. I had this one at 165 points, and I'll take the over here. |
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12-31-17 | Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 202 | 116-113 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City and Dallas Mavericks have both shot the ball extremely well in recent games. They should regress soon. Dallas set a franchise record with 22 made 3 pointers in their last game (22/39 from long range). They aren't likely to do that again. What about the pace here? In the past ten games, Oklahoma City ranks dead last in the NBA in tempo. Dallas ranks 27th out of 30. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. This is a New Year's Eve game, and these holiday games have trended under in the long run pretty heavily. The tendency of players to want to be done and play through a quicker game with lower scoring second halves makes a lot of sense to me. Marc Davis is one of the referees in this one and the under has hit in 54% of his games in his career. The under is 29-14-2 in the Mavs last 45 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 9-4 in OKC's last 13 home games. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Missouri State v. Valparaiso UNDER 140.5 | 67-50 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Both Valparaiso and Missouri State are defensive-minded teams. Though Valpo has picked up their pace some on offense, they aren't efficient on that end of the floor. Valpo ranks 225th in offensive efficiency. The Crusaders are turning the ball over way too much. Tevonn Walker is back after a long absence, but he is less than 100 percent after dealing with mono for the last few weeks. He is their main man on offense. Missouri State ranks 309th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the country. The Bears definitely want to move slowly, and they'll try to control the pace here. Valpo is 55th in effective field goal percentage defense and Missouri State is 17th. These are two excellent defenses. I look for a very hotly contested league game where the total stays under. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Texas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 136.5 | 53-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats excel at slowing the game down. They are able to force their style of play onto almost every opponent. A good example of this is their last game against Appalachian State. Appalachian State runs and hadn't played a game to a pace slower than 69 possessions all year. Texas State held that game down to 63 possessions against Appalachian State. Last year, Texas State and Coastal Carolina met twice. Those games finished with 102 and 113 points. In both games, the pace was slow. Coastal Carolina ranks 267th in average possession length, so they like to play slowly too. Texas State's possession length average is 342nd out of 351 teams in the country. Both of these teams have trouble taking care of the basketball. A bunch of wasted trips usually leads to lower scoring games. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants UNDER 40 | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New York Giants host the Washington Redskins in a game where both teams fell far short of expectations for the season. There are no playoff implications here. When you look back in the last ten years, teams who are not going to be part of the playoffs meeting in week 17 has been slightly positive for the under. The weather here should play a major role. The temperature is expected to be about 15 degrees during this game. The sustained winds will be at 12-14 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. It's going to be a nasty day, and that should make the two offenses more predictable. The important part here is if the two teams have to run, neither of them are any good at it. I expect a bunch of punts in this one. Both offensive lines are badly banged up, and neither quarterback has any of their star receivers left. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Rider v. Niagara OVER 171 | 99-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I'm not a fan of taking an over on a number this high very often, but here I have to do it. Rider and Niagara are pushing the pace to an extreme level this year. While an average game plays to about 69 possessions in college basketball, I think there is a good chance this one plays to a pace of 80 possessions. That's a bunch of extra shot attempts for each team. Niagara is 324th in defensive efficiency. They haven't been able to stop anyone all year. Rider is 202nd in defensive efficiency. Rider is 104th in offensive efficiency and Niagara is 91st. Both offenses are much improved from last year. Rider averaged 1.009 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.071 per possession. Niagara averaged only 1.014 last year and they are up to 1.084 this year. This should be an all out track meet. The two teams are 16th and 57th in free throws per field goal attempt too, so plenty of free throws should be expected. Take the over. |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -108 | 231 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Florida Hurricanes defense has been tremendous this year. Miami's defensive front has been excellent, and that should help them against a good Wisconsin running game. Wisconsin ranks 11th in the nation in most runs as a percentage of their overall play selection. The Badgers are going to try to run the ball early and often here. Miami is likely to be able to at least slow them down quite a bit here. Miami is allowing 3.53 yards per carry this year. In their last six games, they are allowing less than 2.7 yards per carry. The Miami offense scored only 17 points in their last two games. Miami has relied on turnovers much of the year, and their offense is too reliant on the passing game. Miami hasn't been able to run the ball very well. This Wisconsin defense is third in the nation in yards per play allowed. Miami plays at an average tempo. Wisconsin is the third slowest team in the country in terms of pace of play. The Badgers will have some long clock eating drives that should help the under a lot. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 bowl games. The under is 45-20 in Miami's last 65 non-conference games. The under is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 147 | 74-81 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are 320th out of 351 teams in the country in average possession length. This is a team that wants to slow the game down on a consistent basis. Florida is a team that plays quickly, but their defense is excellent. Florida ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency in the country in the last two seasons. The Gators will be very good defensively again this year. These teams met three times last year with Vanderbilt upsetting Florida all three times. None of the games went over this posted total. The finals were 144, 134, and 134 in OT (116 in regulation). Both offenses have dipped significantly in efficiency compared to last season. I see no reason for this number to be this high. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | St. Joe's v. George Washington UNDER 137 | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials play at an extremely slow pace. George Washington is 348th out of 351 in overall pace of play this year. The Colonials host St Joe's here. St. Joe's is playing quickly this year, but they have played a bunch of opponents who run so far this year. This is a whole different ballgame. Last year, they played to a 68-63 game against George Washington and the tempo was only 61 possessions. St. Joe's played to a 71-58 game at a pace of 60 possessions against Princeton this year. Princeton plays slightly quicker than George Washington, and I see that game as an example of a team being able to slow down St. Joe's. This total is a few points high. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | Drexel v. Elon UNDER 140.5 | 75-90 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix and Drexel Dragons have changed a lot since a year ago. Elon's Matt Matheny decided to slow his offense down this year. Just two years ago, Elon ranked 49th in tempo in the country. They now rank 282nd out of 351 teams. Elon is also a good under team because they are first in the nation in least fouls committed. On offense they rank 336th at getting to the line. Drexel was 101st in average possession length (playing quickly) last year. The Dragons are 252nd this year. A huge pace change for Drexel as well. Drexel is giving up only 1.03 points per possession this year compared to 1.10 points per possession last year. The Dragons are moving slower and playing much better defense. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough here. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | Boston College v. Virginia UNDER 129 | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavs play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. Combine that with a defense that ranks first in the nation in efficiency, and you have some very low scoring games. Virginia recently played Savannah State. Savannah State ranks first in the nation in tempo. The final total in that game was an astonishingly low 125 points. Virginia is great at controlling the flow of the game. Boston College plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Eagles are much better at defense now than they were last year and the year before. The last three meetings between these teams have finished with 117, 108, and 125 points. This total is higher than any of those were posted at as well. Take the under. |
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12-29-17 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 212.5 | 128-120 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. This total is set at such a high level because the Pelicans have been an over machine of late. Two of their last nine games have gone into OT though, and that certainly isn't a predictive trend. In time, Pelicans numbers have to get too high. I think this number is too high. Dallas plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. Finding a total of 212.5 with a team playing that slowly is very rare. This meets a system I like to use on fading hot shooting teams. Both teams have shot much higher than their season averages in their last 2 games combined. When both teams have shot that much over their average and the game is a divisional game (this one is), the under is a very strong look. All three referees in this game are big under refs. All 3 refs have a career over/under mark of at least 53% to the under. That is as good as you'll ever see from a ref crew. Take the under. |
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12-29-17 | Iona v. Niagara OVER 161.5 | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I rarely take overs at numbers this high, but I feel the need to take the over here in what I believe will be a shoot out. Iona has historically been a team that plays very quickly. Tim Cluess coached teams push the pace and can score efficiently. They also play very little defense. Iona's tempo numbers are a bit slower so far this year, but they have faced a bunch of teams who like to play slowly. Iona hasn't played a team in the top 45 in the country in offensive tempo. Niagara ranks 19th there, so this is easily the fastest team they have played against. The fastest team they have played to this point was Ohio, and their contest against them finished 93-88. Niagara combines their extremely fast pace with an efficient offense and a defense that ranks among the bottom 25 in the country in efficiency rankings. The Purple Eagles have had an amazing 8 of their 13 games so far this year finish at 170 points or higher. Look for back and forth action and a tight high scoring contest. Because of the spread here, overtime is always a possibility as well. Take the over. |
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12-28-17 | San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131.5 | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Toreros are going to win with defense this year. That's the way Lamont Smith wants it to be. San Diego ranks 50th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Toreros rank a very impressive second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. San Francisco is without Charles Minlend due to an injury. He's a guy who really hurt San Diego last year. The Dons aren't as good on offense this year, but they are even better than last year on defense. The Dons are 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. San Francisco is using nearly one second more of the shot clock on average this year, and San Diego always wants to play slowly. Both offenses rank terribly when it comes to efficiency. San Diego is 221st and San Francisco is 254th. This projects as a defensive battle between two teams who don't have many good scoring options. These are two teams who clearly are better on the defensive end. I had this one lined in the mid 120's. Take the under. |
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12-28-17 | Southern Miss v. Marshall OVER 152.5 | 66-85 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the country in average time of possession. That means they shoot the ball on average the third quickest out of 351 teams in the country. They are really pushing the pace. That will continue with the D'Antoni system at Marshall. Marshall has scored 83 points or more in 10 of their 13 games this year. The Thundering Herd have scored 91 points or more in 7 of their contests. Marshall is going to push the pace and score a bunch here. If Southern Miss wants to have a chance, they'll have to score quite a few. Marshall's defense isn't very good, and Southern Miss should be a bit improved this season. The Golden Eagles generally slow the game down, but they have already played in three games against Division One opponents where the tempo was 71 or faster. Marshall will force the tempo here. Last year, the final was 91-76 when these two met. Two years ago, Marshall won 108-106 at home in OT. This total is a few points too low here. Take the over. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas OVER 60.5 | 16-33 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Texas Bowl Total DOMINATION* The Texas Longhorns and Missouri Tigers both like to push the pace. Texas played at the 35th fastest tempo out of 130 teams in the country. Missouri played at the second fastest tempo of anyone in the country this season. The Missouri offense is based a lot on timing, and early in the season their timing wasn't down yet. As Drew Lock and the rest of this unit got things down pat, the numbers they put up were massive. Missouri hasn't scored less than 45 points in any of their last six games. Texas' defense is very good, but they will be without several key players here. Chris Nelson won't play on the defensive front. DeShon Elliot won't play in the secondary. Holton Hill has been out for the last few weeks at a corner spot, and he's out again here. The Texas offense finally has two healthy quarterbacks, and this Missouri defense doesn't impress me. Missouri has allowed 6.4 yards per play or more on five occasions this year. With both teams playing at this kind of pace, this isn't a particularly high total. Take the over. |
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12-27-17 | Purdue v. Arizona OVER 65.5 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been an offensive juggernaut since Khalil Tate took over at quarterback. How good have they been? They haven't scored less than 28 points in any game he started. They have scored 45 points or more in 5 of the 8 games Tate started. Purdue has some good defensive numbers on the season as a whole, but they didn't play very many good offenses. Purdue plays in the side of the Big Ten where most teams want to grind it out (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern for example) and thus Purdue had a bunch of low scoring games. They did allow 35 points and 524 points to Louisville in the season opener. Purdue likes to play quickly, and I don't see a Jeff Brohm coached team shying away from a high scoring fast paced game. Arizona will play fast and look to get into a shootout. Purdue hasn't been in them this year, but Arizona's defense is bad enough that Purdue should put up a lot of points here. Arizona's last eight games have all easily gone past this total. In fact, they have all been 72 points or higher. Arizona is first in the nation in yards per carry. The Wildcats defense ranks 93rd in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.03. Take the over. |
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12-26-17 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212 | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Milwaukee Bucks are third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Chicago Bulls are 9th in offensive efficiency in that span. Milwaukee has routinely been putting up really big numbers. Chicago's offense has been much better because of two reason: Kris Dunn's breakout performances at point guard, and Mirotic returning and providing a big spark. Ed Malloy is one the officials in this game, and he has been one of the best over referees in the NBA. In their last ten games, Milwaukee ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.115 points per possession. Chicago has picked up the pace significantly with Dunn running the show and playing well. The Bulls rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. Take the over. |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206 | 111-103 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Christmas 100% System Play CASH* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards meet on Christmas Day NBA action. The under has had great value on Christmas Day in the past ten years. Overall, the under is 32-18-2. What makes the angle stronger? Non-division games between good teams. In games played at 9 pm EST or earlier on Christmas Day with two teams with a win percentage of 50% or better- the under is a whopping 18-0 in the last 18 games. This game fits the system. The Wizards offense was great last game, but in general of late they have been poor. Washington ranks 24th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 7 games. They rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that span. The Celtics rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo. They should keep the pace low. Christmas Day games are certainly unique, and I see this one staying under the total. We'll go with this system backed play. Take the under. |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State UNDER 49.5 | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 112 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense was tremendous this year. This team was one of the biggest surprises of the season, and their massive improvement on defense was the key. Fresno State is accustomed to playing in Hawaii, and I think they will be ready to play here. Houston's offense was really inconsistent this year. The Cougars put up some big numbers on bad defenses in their conference. Houston also plays a bunch of teams that play at a very fast tempo in the American Athletic Conference. Fresno State won't play at that pace here. When Houston has been outside of their conference, the under has had value of late. I think that makes sense because the Cougars run up big numbers on teams like East Carolina in the AAC, but their totals are generally too high in non-conference games. There isn't one area in this game where the offense holds the advantage (pass offenses and run offenses vs. their opposition). The Houston run defense is dominant and Fresno State hasn't consistent at all in the passing attack this year. The under is 5-0 in Fresno's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5 non-conference games. A 10-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets UNDER 43 | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Chargers take on the New York Jets on Sunday. Bryce Petty will start for the Jets. Petty was shaky last week in New Orleans, and I certainly don't trust him to be good against an excellent Chargers pass rush. The Jets offensive front is a clear weakness, and the Chargers led by Joey Bosa should be in the backfield a lot here. The Chargers offense has been able to move the ball this year, but their red zone performance has been terrible. It is partially because of poor play calling in key spots. An inability to run on short distance downs has hurt too. The Jets have still been trying hard on defense, and this isn't the easiest of spots for the Chargers after an important loss at Kansas City last week. The Chargers have been a good under team all year, and against a Jets team that is likely to play it conservative on offense with an inexperienced quarterback, I like the value on the under. Take the under. |
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12-23-17 | Magic v. Wizards UNDER 210.5 | 103-130 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Washington Wizards play on Christmas Day in Boston. That means the time they celebrate with their families is tonight after the game and early tomorrow. Games around Christmas have slanted pretty strongly toward the under for everyone, but the trend is 60% unders in the last 8 years for teams that are slated to play on Christmas Day. It makes sense to me. They want to get done with the game and get home. Even if we took that angle away, I think there is value here. The Magic are expected to be without Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. Without those guys, this offense is a mess. Orlando is averaging a miserable 0.953 points per possession in their last five games. They have been short handed during this period. That's dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Washington ranks 27th at 0.981 points per possession during that time. I expect a sloppy game here. This total is a few points too high. Take the under. |
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12-23-17 | Princeton v. Akron UNDER 142.5 | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips and Princeton Tigers play for the second straight day in Hawaii on a neutral court. Neutral courts are definitely a good thing for unders in the long run, and with short rest for both teams I consider it an even stronger under signal. Princeton excels at controlling the tempo. The Tigers are going to want the pace to be slow here, and they should be able to dictate that tempo. The Tigers ranked 337th in tempo out of 351 teams last year. They rank exactly the same so far this season. Akron's average possession length suggests they prefer to play slower as well. With a total set this high, it will take much higher than average shooting numbers to get past this number. Take the under. |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Saturday Total Domination* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been very good this year. They have consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL in yards per play this season. Indianapolis' offense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Colts are averaging only 4.0 yards per play during that time. I don't see them getting much going here either. Baltimore's offense has been better in recent weeks, but they have been best at running the ball, and the Colts run defense is pretty decent. The weather should play a factor here. There is expected to be rain and wind of about 12-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph during this game. That's significant enough to make both teams more conservative in their play calling. I see Baltimore getting a lead and then being content to run the ball and use the clock. Take the under. |
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12-22-17 | Davidson v. New Mexico State UNDER 142.5 | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies are coached by former Wichita State assistant Chris Jans. Jans is a defensive-minded coach, and his teams tend to play slower than average. New Mexico State has a lot of talent, and they are coming off an upset win against Illinois. The Aggies are excellent on the defensive glass. This New Mexico State team is underrated by most. Davidson isn't the quality team they were a few years ago, but they are a solid team. They no longer run like they did in the past. They are an average paced team. Davidson shoots a ton of 3's, and New Mexico State has traditionally been excellent defending the long range jumper. They were 9th in the country in 3 point defense last year, and they are only allowing 33.3% makes this year so far as well. This game is played on a neutral floor in Hawaii. Neutral sites are positives for the under. Shooting numbers on the average are lower, and this is a weird game for both teams with their body clocks off with the big time change. Take the under. |
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12-21-17 | Portland State v. California OVER 166 | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Golden Bears like to run under Wyking Jones. Cal ranks 82nd in the country (out of 351) in overall tempo. Cal's defense isn't good. They have allowed 89 points or more on four occasions this year. Portland State will be the fastest paced team they have played so far this year. Portland State's Barrett Peery has his team playing an uptempo pressing defense that leads to run outs and lots of drive and kick outs for 3's. Portland State is 4th in the nation in pace of play. This team is absolutely flying. Portland State has seen 8 of their last 11 games go over this lofty total. The Vikings will push the pace. Both of these teams are elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the line. It all adds up to a very high scoring affair. The over is 8-0 in Portland State's last 8 following a win. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 non-conference games. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. |
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12-21-17 | Cal-Irvine v. Idaho UNDER 136.5 | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Idaho Vandals and UC Irvine Anteaters are both teams who win with defense first. They are also both teams who slow the game down most of the time. UC Irvine was terrible on defense in their last game, and I expect a better performance from them here. Idaho and UC Irvine both have a big turnover problem on offense. A lot of empty possessions typically leads to unders. Recently, both of these teams have been playing to a slower pace on offense than they were at the start of the season. This game is played at a neutral arena, and that is definitely a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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12-21-17 | Hurricanes v. Predators OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NHL Totals SMASHER* Nashville continues to be one of the hottest teams in the NHL. With the style they play, this one should see Carolina feed into that tempo and really result in some nice chances on net. Nashville comes into this one averaging 3.75 goals per game. That bodes extremely well for them going against a Carolina team that is giving up 3.12 per contest. The Predators should be able to pick apart this Hurricanes defense and pepper the net with chances. Carolina has the playmakers to compete here. They put up a 4 spot earlier this season against the Predators and Jeff Skinner has played a huge role in that. Skinner’s 12th goal last time out leads the team, as he provides a huge spark for this offense. Situationally, this one makes sense as well. The Over is 14-6-2 in Hurricanes last 22 vs. a team with a winning record and the Over is 5-2 in Predators last 7 overall. The pace of play is huge here. The Predators really turn it up a few notches and the opposition really feeds into it. Both teams will see plenty of scoring chances. Take Over. |
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12-21-17 | Tennessee Tech v. Indiana OVER 151 | 59-87 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Indiana's offense was dreadful in their loss to Fort Wayne. Their defense was just as bad. The Hoosiers will look to get back on track against Tennessee Tech here. Tennessee Tech pushes the pace to an extreme. The Golden Eagles have gotten into multiple very high scoring games this year. Not only are they very fast paced, but they also play very little defense. Both of these teams are good at getting to the line, and there should be plenty of trips to the charity stripe during this contest. I think Indiana hangs a big number here and Tenn Tech contributes plenty too. Take the over. |
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12-21-17 | American v. Marquette UNDER 150 | 51-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* In the past ten years, games where the home team is favored by 15 points or more and the total is 139.5 or higher have gone under the total 55.1% of the time in the first 3 months of the season. Why? In blowouts there is less chance of a foul fest obviously, and the team ahead generally slows the pace down late. Also, officials are more likely to swallow their whistle. American finished as the slowest paced team in the country in 2015 and 2016. This is a team that tries to stall as much as possible. Marquette's tempo is right around the average pace in the country. A total of 150 with one team that goes extremely slowly and one team that is medium paced is awfully high. Marquette is certainly very efficient on offense, so they could score plenty here. They have shown they will slow down against a similar opponent to American earlier this year though. They beat Mount St Mary's 80-59 in the season opener. Take the under. |
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12-19-17 | Elon v. Canisius UNDER 145.5 | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix were playing too fast last year. Their coach said in the offseason that they needed to slow things down to have more long-term success. They have slowed things down significantly this season. The oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted. This is one of those cases where it takes a long time for the oddsmakers to adjust a team that is under the radar like Elon. Canisius is also playing slower this year. Canisius plays against a bunch of teams that like to push the pace, but when they can they prefer to play slowly. Canisius has played eight straight games that have stayed under this total. I made this number 138, so I see a significant amount of value in this one. Take the under. |
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12-18-17 | Tennessee State v. Texas OVER 121 | 46-47 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns are pushing the pace more this year than they have in the last couple seasons. As Shaka Smart has gotten more of his own type of player, they are looking to play quicker. Texas is no doubt much better on defense than offense. Still, with them pushing the pace on offense, this is an awfully low total. This is the type of total you expect in a Virginia game because of their amazing defense and extremely slow tempo. Tennessee State isn't going to try to run,but they are likely to get behind and be forced to play quicker to try to come back. This isn't one I had expected to be taking, but the extreme low number gives it value. Take the over. |
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12-18-17 | Boise State v. SMU UNDER 134.5 | 63-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* SMU has ran the score up on some poor teams they have played this year, but their game totals have stayed under this total in 8 of 11 games. SMU has also shown that they want to slow the tempo of the game even more when they are playing better competition. They slowed the game to a crawl against fast paced USC in a win recently. SMU then ran with TCU and lost. I expect them to control the tempo and play slowly here. Boise State ranks 22nd in the nation in total defense when ranked by efficiency. The Broncos are number one in defensive rebounding. SMU typically relies on offensive rebounding a lot, and they aren't likely to get as many as normal here. Both teams are top 30 in defense, and both offenses are worse than they were last year. A low scoring tighter game here. Take the under. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Tampa Bay Bucs will be without a bunch of key players on defense here. You could make a solid argument that the two best players on this defense are Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy. Both of them are out for this one. Hargreaves is a top corner for them and he will miss this game as well. Atlanta's offense has been great of late. The Falcons are averaging 6.3 yards per play in their last three contests. They moved the ball at will against Tampa Bay in their first meeting, and Tampa Bay is even more short-handed on defense this time around. Jameis Winston is healthy now, and the Bucs offense is a solid 13th in the NFL in yards per play. In a primetime spot, I expect Tampa Bay's offense to get their yards and points as well. The over is 10-0-1 in the Falcons last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the over. |
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12-18-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Indiana OVER 151.5 | 92-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastadons beat Indiana last season. That was a stunner and one of the bigger upsets of the season. Indiana now hosts Fort Wayne, and they aren't going to take them lightly this time. Fort Wayne lost quite a bit from last year, and Indiana has played better in recent games. This is a spot where I think Indiana keeps the pedal down more than normal because of the revenge factor from last year. Fort Wayne has played 12 games this year and 11 of them have gone over this posted total. They play quickly, and they aren't very good on defense. They are capable of getting red hot from 3 point range. Indiana has seen six of their 11 games go over this total in regulation as well. The Hoosiers offense has been very efficient of late. Take the over. |
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12-18-17 | Charleston Southern v. Florida State OVER 147.5 | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles have scored at least 87 points in each of their home games this year. They play a Charleston Southern team tonight that is terrible defensively. Charleston Southern allowed 110 points to Davidson in the season opener. Florida State beat Charleston Southern 88-67 last year, and I see a very similar game this year. Florida State will push the pace in a big way. The Seminoles haven't played a game pacing below 70 possessions all season. Florida State has shown they are willing to run the score up, and that will likely be the case again here. Take the over. |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | 42-7 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Seattle Seahawks host the LA Rams in a game that means a lot to both teams. You can expect both teams to be highly motivated in this one. The more important the game- the better it is for the under, especially in the regular season. A big reason why I like this one is the weather. Seattle is expected to receive steady rain through this game, and wind will accompany it. The winds are expected to be 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That's enough to change the way this game is played. The Seahawks running attack isn't good at all. The Rams can run the ball some, but the strength of the Seahawks defense now is their run defense. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. In the last three games between these two one team has had 10 points or fewer. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The under is 4-0 in the Seahawks last 4 vs a divisional foe. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-17-17 | Penn State v. George Mason UNDER 145 | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions do like to play fast, but they are much better on defense than offense. Penn State ranks 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are actually playing slightly slower on offense than they did a year ago, and their defense is even better than last year. George Mason ranked 131st in overall pace last year. They are 251st so far this year. Dave Paulsen's teams have typically liked to slow the game down, and this year's team has less offensive firepower. It makes sense that they are going slower this year. The initial line move up on this game doesn't make sense to me. I have this as a game that stays in the 130's. Both teams turn it over quite a bit, so there should be a lot of empty trips. Good value on this one. Take the under. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 40 | 27-10 | Loss | -112 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle Crusher* Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns are much improved on offense from earlier this season. Alex Collins has turned into a nice weapon for the Baltimore offense and that has taken some pressure off of Joe Flacco. On the Cleveland side, the Browns have a strong group of wide receivers now with Coleman and Gordon both healthy. The Browns haven't been very good in the red zone in recent weeks but their yards per play numbers suggest drastic improvement. This total is set awfully low. Baltimore's defense was on the field an extremely long time against Pittsburgh last weekend. There could definitely be some tired bodies on that side of the ball for the Ravens. Baltimore's offense has been much more aggressive in the last few weeks and they should be able to hit some long gainers against this Browns defense. The over is 6-0 in the Ravens last 6 games in the month of December. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 10-0 angle. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. San Diego UNDER 136 | Top | 86-83 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego Toreros rank 300th in average possession length on offense out of 351 teams in the country. North Texas ranks 315th. These two teams will play a very slow paced game here. North Texas is 255th in the nation in offensive efficiency. San Diego is 223rd in the nation in offensive efficiency. San Diego is 51st in the nation in defense. While North Texas is a poor defense, San Diego has shown that they are happy to slow the game down drastically when they get a lead. They are a big favorite here, and they should have a lead. San Diego has played 10 games this year, and only one of them has gone over this posted total. North Texas has seen a mixed bag, but I expect San Diego to control the flow of this game. Take the under big. |
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12-16-17 | UNLV v. Pacific OVER 157 | 81-76 | Push | 0 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Pacific Tigers want to play fast under Coach Damon Stoudamire. Here's their chance. UNLV is going to run at every opportunity here. UNLV ranks 6th out of 351 in the nation in average possession length. Marvin Menzies has this talented Runnin' Rebels team pushing tempo at every chance. Pacific has run with three opponents this year. They played an 89-80 game against Stanford. They played an 89-74 game against Nevada. They played a 86-72 game against Wyoming. I expect UNLV to get the lead here and force Pacific to play from behind. UNLV and Pacific both rank in the top 30 in the country in free throw attempts per possession this year. Lots of trips to the charity stripe should come in this one. UNLV has played 8 of their 10 games over this total. I expect another one over the number. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 206.5 | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Austin Rivers is averaging 14.5 points per game for the year, and since Blake Griffin went out, Rivers had consistently been one of the team's top scorers. Rivers was out last night and the offense looked disjointed. Danilo Gallinari is still out with an injury as well. The Clippers don't have a go to guy on offense. Miami has played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last four games. Miami is 19-9 to the under so far this year, and I don't think oddsmakers have caught on to their slower tempo just yet. Brian Forte is a referee in this one, and he is one of the strongest under refs in the league. This one has gotten pushed up to an awfully high level considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and the tempo should be very slow. Take the under. |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 59 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 293 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves rank fourth in the nation in pace of play. Arkansas State is going to get off a lot of snaps and quickly. MTSU likes to play quickly as well, especially with Brent Stockstill back under center for the team. Both defenses are better at stopping the run than the pass, but both of these offenses are pass heavy. Look for both offenses to take advantage of weak secondaries in this one. Arkansas State has shown on multiple occasions that they can get involved in some really high scoring games. MTSU now has their star quarterback Stockstill back, and they finished the season scoring 30 points or more in each of their last four games. I see this being a back and forth affair with both offenses moving it through the air with ease. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Fresno State OVER 149 | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks will look to push the tempo whenever they can this season. Oregon isn't the same caliber of team they were last year, and that's largely because they don't have the shot blockers on defense that they had a year ago. Fresno State ranked 167th in the country in offensive efficiency last year. They are 57th so far this year. They were 60th in defensive efficiency last year, and they are 91st this year on defense. Fresno State has played a bunch of teams that walk the ball up the floor this year, and the Bulldogs haven't had as many high scoring games as you might expect because of that. When they played two fast teams (Arkansas and Long Beach State), the scores were 83-75 and 106-70. Oregon won't play as fast as those two, but they will play quickly. I think this game gets into the mid 150's as both offenses have quite a bit of success. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall v. Colorado State OVER 56 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 289 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams are so efficient on offense. They rank 24th in scoring efficiency this year. They are 14th in the nation in yards per play. Gallup is one of the best receivers in the country. They have a strong offensive line as well. Marshall's defense was good this year, but they didn't face many good offenses. They are up against the best or second best offense they have faced all year for this one. I think they'll struggle. Marshall's offense has been up and down this year, but Colorado State ranks 101st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Marshall should get going offensively in this contest. This number is a touchdown too low. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions OVER 44 | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Saturday Totals SMASHER* The Detroit Lions have played 6 straight games that have gone over this total. Eight of their last nine have gone over this number. Detroit's defense ranks second to last in the NFL in total defense in the last eight games. Chicago's offense has been bad for much of the year, but the Bears broke out with a terrific offensive performance in Cincinnati last week. The thinking here is John Fox will likely be a little more aggressive in the play calling after a good showing. Chicago ran the ball at will against Detroit in the first matchup. Matt Stafford has been very good against the Bears. This game is being played inside the dome, so there is no weather to contend in this game. Stafford threw for 299 yards on 31 passes in the first game against Chicago. This is a low number for a Detroit game, and I'm siding with the over. Take the over in this one. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia v. Massachusetts UNDER 137 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen are a completely different team this year under first year head coach Matt McCall. McCall has always wanted his teams to slow the game down and win with good defense. Last year, UMass was a team that pushed the tempo to an extreme. That's definitely no longer the case. Georgia tends to play to the pace of their opponent under Coach Fox. The Bulldogs have an opponent who wants to play slowly here, and that's how I assume they will play in this one. They have a great big man in Yante Maten, and they'll look to play through him here. UMass ranks 224th in offensive efficiency. The Minutemen have struggled to get good looks, and they often rely on poor shots late in the clock. Take the under. |
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12-15-17 | Clippers v. Wizards OVER 209.5 | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA TGIF Total Domination* The Washington Wizards are a different team with John Wall at the point. Washington had to slow down their pace without him in the lineup. With him, they obviously like to push because of Wall's elite speed. The Los Angeles Clippers defense has been terrible in the past month. This team is giving up way too many open looks, and the Wizards have the shooters to make them pay. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished at: 223 points, 227 points, 257 points, and 225 points. The Clippers still have a league average or better offense, but their defense is near the bottom of the league. Washington has seen 7 of their last 8 stay under the total, which has moved this number down to a nice value. With Wall back, their style of play should change. Take the over. |
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12-13-17 | Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5 | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is a team I always lean toward the under with. The Badgers can control the pace as well as anyone in the nation. Their offense isn't very good this year either. They rely far too much on Ethan Happ to do everything. They don't have good guard play. Western Kentucky prefers a slow paced game as well, and the Hilltoppers have had some recent high scoring games against opponents who really like to run, which has given us line value on the under here. Wisconsin is favored, and they are good at taking the air out of the ball if they have the lead late. This number is several points too high. Take the under. |
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12-13-17 | Arkansas State v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 153.5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks always rank near the very top of the tempo charts at the end of the year in college hoops. Omaha is playing fast again this year. This is a relatively high total, but Omaha has had 159 points or more in 7 of their 11 games so far this year. What about Arkansas State? They have a first year coach who talked about wanting to push the pace in the preseason. They are pushing it. Arkansas State is 57th out of 351 teams in the country in pace of play. The tempo here will be very high. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25% of teams in the country in defensive efficiency as well, so there is no reason to expect good defense to be played here. Take the over in this one. |
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12-13-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Bradley UNDER 131.5 | Top | 46-86 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* Two teams that are far better on defense than on offense. They are also two teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. Little Rock has played 5 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this number in regulation. Bradley has played 6 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this total. They haven't played a game all year that finished higher than 140 points. Bradley's defense is 41st in the country in adjusted efficiency. Their offense is 267th. Little Rock is a miserable 344th in offensive efficiency. With both teams having a big advantage on defense and the tempo of the game staying slow, it will take a rare good shooting effort from these two to send it over. It could happen, but I really like the value here on the under. I had this lined at 121 points. Take the under big. |
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12-12-17 | San Diego v. Colorado UNDER 138 | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes host the San Diego Toreros tonight. San Diego ranks 301st in the nation in average possession length, which means they really slow the tempo down. San Diego is significantly better on defense than offense. San Diego is 239th in offensive efficiency in the country. They are 65th in defensive efficiency. Colorado is also slightly better on defense than offense. The Buffaloes have played to the pace of their opponents so far this year. Most of their opponents have been quick paced teams, which has inflated this number a bit. Both teams turn the ball over at a high rate, which helps the under here as well since neither team is expected to be pressing. Those turnovers in the halfcourt simply waste time. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 44 | 38-39 | Loss | -107 | 53 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The AFC North is well known for its hard hitting style and these two teams are definitely that style. In the AFC North, the under is a whopping 56-29 (66%) on games with a total of 41 or higher since 2004. The weather here will play a bit of a role too. The wind is expected to be 12 mph during this one. That's enough to make it a little harder to throw the ball deep. The Steelers are clearly short handed at linebacker, but Baltimore's offense has been really bad this year. The Ravens are dead last in the NFL in yards per play. On the other hand, Baltimore is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Both teams have an excellent pass rush, and that will make the quarterbacks get rid of the ball quicker than normal. The under is 19-8 in the Steelers last 27 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 between these teams. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | NC-Wilmington v. LSU OVER 161.5 | 84-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks rank 12th in the nation in pace of play. They are pushing the pace at every chance. Their new head coach learned under Roy Williams, and we all know the Tar Heels constantly push the tempo. LSU is playing at an average pace, but they are torching the nets on offense. LSU ranks 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They are first in the country in two point field goal percentage offense at an amazing 63.1%. UNC Wilmington ranks 340th in points per possession allowed, so they are almost as bad as anyone in the country on defense. Of UNC Wilmington's games this year, only one of them hasn't gone over this total. LSU has had totals of 178 and 191 in two of their games so they are fully capable. Despite playing almost all slow paced opponents, LSU's games are averaging just over 161 points. UNC Wilmington will keep the tempo moving, and that should lead to a high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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12-10-17 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 143 | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears rank 261st in offensive pace (average possession length) out of 351 teams. Oral Roberts ranks 306th. Both teams want to play slowly. Missouri State ranks number 24 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Oral Roberts is 313th in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts only managed 60 points in a loss to Southern Nazarene in their last game. This is a bad team that struggles in a big way to score. Missouri State has shown on multiple occasions that they are happy to slow the game down once they have a lead, and they should be playing from in front here. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota OVER 148.5 | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes and Eastern Washington Eagles both play quickly. South Dakota is 57th in the nation in quickest pace on offense (average possession length). Eastern Washington is 83rd. That is out of 351 teams. There's no reason to expect anything other than a quick tempo for this contest. The Eastern Washington defense is the worst unit on the floor here, and South Dakota's efficient offense should pick them apart. Eastern Washington fouls at a high rate and South Dakota is excellent from the line. Eastern Washington has shown many times this year they will keep the game going with the foul game, and they are likely to be down and could be in that situation here. Take the over. |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers UNDER 41 | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 70 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings meet in what should be a really good game on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings have been the most consistent defense in the NFL. Adjusted for strength of schedule- the Vikings defense is second against the pass and third against the run. Carolina's offense has been below average all year in the passing game, and they aren't getting enough out of the running backs in the running game. Minnesota's offense has been solid this year, but they don't move particularly fast. They have a lot of long drives that eat up the time. Carolina ranks as the third slowest team in the NFL, so the Panthers definitely use up the clock as well. The under is 20-6 in the Vikings last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns UNDER 40.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Green Bay Packers rank 27th in the NFL in yards per play since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Green Bay has to rely on their running game, but the strength of this Cleveland defense is their rushing defense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in rushing defense when measured by advanced metrics. The Browns have been really bad on offense again this year. Yes, they have better weapons on the outside now with Gordon and Coleman. I don't see them doing a ton of damage here though for two reasons: Kizer is their quarterback, and second the wind is going to be a big factor. In the NFL, games with a total of 38 or higher with winds of 10 mph or higher have gone under the total a little better than 57% of the time in the past ten years. The wind makes a difference in Cleveland even more than most stadiums. This stadium is very close to the lake, and the wind can swirl around here easily. Expect two conservative game plans and the defenses will have the upper hand. Take the under. |