Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-04-17 | Drake v. Wichita State OVER 148.5 | 65-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs are playing much faster now than they did early in the year. They got a new coach six games ago. Drake's average tempo before that game ranked among the 30 slowest teams in the country. In the six games since the change, they rank among the 30 fastest teams in the country. It's a huge change and the oddsmakers haven't caught up to this change quite yet. Wichita State is playing much faster than they did a year ago. The Shockers are averaging 3 more possessions than last year. Additionally, Wichita State was first in the nation in defensive efficiency last year, and this year they have dropped to 29th. What about on offense? Wichita State is actually better this year. They were 67th on offense last year and 34th this year. Drake will push the pace and Wichita State will torch this terrible Drake defense. I'll be surprised if Wichita State doesn't score at least 90 points. I had this one at 153 points. Take the over. |
|||||||
01-04-17 | Villanova v. Butler UNDER 142 | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Butler/Villanova CASH* The Butler Bulldogs host Villanova in a huge Big East clash. Villanova probably isn't getting the national headlines that they should be at this point. While all the talk is about the young stars at Kentucky, Kansas, and UCLA, all Villanova does is keep winning games. These are the defending champs, and they won't be easy to unseat. Villanova once again has a tremendous defense, and they are once again slowing the tempo down and limiting turnovers. Villanova is actually playing 1.3 possessions per game slower than last year. Their offensive efficiency is down just a tick without Arcidiacano. Butler is playing one possession slower as well. The Bulldogs were 97th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 39th in that category this year. Last year's meeting at Hinkle Field House was a 55-50 defensive battle. This one won't be that low, but this total is several points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-03-17 | East Carolina v. UCF UNDER 121.5 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The UCF Knights are playing some tremendous defense under new coach Johnny Dawkins this year. UCF ranks first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Tacko Fall is 7'6 and he stands in the middle of the zone on defense, which obviously makes this a hard team to get to the hoop against. UCF is allowing opponents to shoot only 36.3% on two point field goals. That is easily best in the country. East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient at all this year. The Pirates are averaging only 0.944 points per possession on the year (1.02 last year). East Carolina scored only 35 points in a home loss to College of Charleston a couple weeks ago. They scored only 44 points in their last game against SMU. East Carolina should have a lot of trouble scoring here. East Carolina's defense is 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, so they are very good as well. Both of these teams rely on free throws a lot on offense, but these two teams rank in the top ten in the country in defending without fouling. Both of these teams play slow and I expect a tempo of somewhere around 63 or 64 possessions. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-02-17 | Iona v. Fairfield OVER 157 | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels played a little slower in the non-conference slate, but I fully expect them to go back to their fast paced ways inside the MAAC. Fairfield is now running and gunning all the time. Fairfield has played to an average of 75 possessions in their last five games. Who is going to slow this game down? The only way this one stays under is some bad shooting numbers. Iona's offense is probably the best in the conference, and the Gaels are never very good on defense. Last year's two meetings between these teams finished at 178 and 189 points. This might not be that high, but I think it will be 160 or higher. Take the over. |
|||||||
01-02-17 | College of Charleston v. Delaware UNDER 119 | 65-56 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The College of Charleston Cougars and Delaware Blue Hens have the same goal. They both want to win a low scoring game with their strong defense. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in pace. I expect less than 60 possessions in this game, which would put it as one of the slowest games of the week in college basketball. Charleston and Delaware both rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency. Delaware is in the bottom 25 in the country. Charleston is a top 15 defense in the nation, so it is hard to imagine Delaware scoring much here. Delaware has scored 59, 53, 63, and 56 points in their last four games. This will be the best defense they have faced this year. Look for a very low scoring game here. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-02-17 | Western Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 52 | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have struggled to stop the run all year, and they haven't played anyone who can run the ball like the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin is going to pound it constantly, and I don't expect Western Michigan to be able to stop them. I see the Badgers getting quite a few big plays on the ground in this one. At the same time, the Badgers secondary is very capable of giving up big plays. Penn State took advantage of this last game. Western Michigan will take advantage of this with star receiver Corey Davis. Davis will be the best offensive player in this game, and he's a future NFL star. While the tempo should be slow, I believe there will be enough big plays to get this one at least into the mid 50's. Take the over. |
|||||||
01-02-17 | Iowa v. Florida UNDER 41 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators and Iowa Hawkeyes meet up in the Outback Bowl on Monday afternoon. Since neither team ever really thought they had a chance for bigger things, I expect both teams to be motivated for this game. Iowa was trashed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year, and the Hawkeyes players desperately want to finish the season better than they did last year. Florida ranks tenth in the nation in yards per play allowed on the year. Florida is well balanced on defense and it certainly helps that they are healthier than they have been defensively in a very long time. Iowa started the year poorly on defense, but they played great on this side late in the year. The Hawkeyes finished the season ranked 24th in yards per play allowed in the country. In their last three games, they allowed 3.30 yards per play (Michigan), 3.05 yards per play (Illinois), and 3.19 yards per play (Nebraska). Both of these teams rank in the bottom 30 in the country in terms of tempo. This one will be played at a very slow pace. Also, Iowa runs the ball on 60.14% of plays and Florida runs it on 50.6% of plays. A lot of running, two solid defenses, and a slow pace. Those are all big positives when taking an under. This is a really low total, but it is low for a reason. My number here was 36. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-01-17 | Tulane v. Cincinnati OVER 135.5 | Top | 56-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been picking up the pace of late. For the year, Cincinnati is playing almost a possession faster than last year, but the real change has been in the last few games. A closer look at the last few games tells of the tempo change though. Cincinnati is averaging 65.6 possessions on the year, but in their last 4 games there has been an average of 75.3 possessions in regulation. The Bearcats have put up more than 90 points in 3 of those 4 games. Last year, Tulane was more of a slow it down team. With a new coach now, they are playing faster. Tulane also gave up 1.00 points per possession on defense last year (a solid mark). This year they are allowing almost 1.10 points per possession (terrible). Cincinnati has been piling up the points against bad defenses, and this is one of the worst they will see this year. Cincinnati scored 97 on Tulane last year, and I see them getting to 85 or higher here. This total is several points too low. Take the over big. |
|||||||
01-01-17 | Giants v. Redskins OVER 44.5 | 19-10 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Washington Redskins are averaging 6.7 yards per play on the season. Washington has been able to move the ball very consistently this year. New York's defense is good, but they are also without several top players now. Jason Pierre Paul is out for this one. Janoris Jenkins is doubtful for this one. They have several other guys questionable here. Why would those guys play if they are hurt? The Giants can't improve their playoff standing no matter what. Washington needs this game badly, and the Redskins offense should pile up the points. The Redskins have routinely been gaining 400 yards of total offense in their matchups with New York, and I think they will again here. At the same time, Ben McAdoo said Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will play here. The Redskins defense isn't good. Washington ranks in the bottom 8 in the league in all defensive categories. New York's offense has been better in recent weeks. This number is too low. I see a good weather forecast for this one and a game that should get to 50 points or so. Take the over. |
|||||||
01-01-17 | Texans v. Titans UNDER 40.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans meet in week 17. Tennessee is out of the playoffs and Houston is in once again. Marcus Mariota is out which means Matt Cassel will start for the Titans. Cassel is definitely a big downgrade for the Titans, and I think we see an even more conservative game plan from Tennessee in this game. The Titans play a slow tempo and run the ball a lot, both of which are good for the under. Houston's defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last five weeks. This defense is excellent, and I see them playing well again here. Tom Savage hasn't turned the ball over a bunch, but I wasn't very impressed with him last week in the Texans win over the Bengals either. Savage checked down constantly and I see very few big plays from Houston here. The under is a perfect 6-0 in the Titans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns meet in the regular season finale. Expected to rest for the Steelers are Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Mike Pouncey. That's their best offensive players, and even against the Browns without those guys I think the Steelers offense will look like a shell of itself. Cleveland's offense wasn't any good last week either. The Browns are second to last in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. Only the Rams are worse than them during that period. The Steelers defense is only allowing 4.9 yards per play in the last 3 games, and they have been much better down the stretch. With Landry Jones and Robert Griffin III as the quarterbacks, I see a sloppy low scoring game here. The under is 6-0 in the Browns last 6 after allowing 350 yards or more. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during week 17 of the season. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 week 17 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 30 points the previous game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 208 | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz are second slowest in tempo in the NBA. Phoenix obviously plays very fast, but I think Utah can and will control the pace at home here. In 4 of their last 9 games, the Jazz have held their opponent to 89 points or less. The Suns aren't efficient on offense, and I could see Utah holding them to a low total. Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. The referees in this game are a combined 57% to the under in the past four years. Strong trend there. Take the under. . |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Knicks v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This is a hard bet to make, there is no doubt about that. Houston is firing on all cylinders right now, and the Rockets can pour the points in. Still, at 225.5 on this day that is enough value for me to take the under. Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. This number is 7 points higher than when the teams met earlier this year. It is an overreaction in the line. The referees in this game are 54.5% to the under in the last four years. That's a nice bonus. Take the under. . |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Morehead State v. Tennessee-Martin OVER 156.5 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Morehead State Eagles got rid of Sean Woods in the middle of the season. Preston Spradlin is the interim coach there now. Spradlin seems to be asking this Morehead State team to push the tempo much more than Woods was before he left. Morehead State is playing at an average pace of 80.75 possessions since Spradlin took over. They won't average that fast overall for the year, but I do think they are going to be one of the fastest teams in the country. The Eagles also don't play any defense. They are 344th out of 351 teams in effective field goal percentage defense. Tennessee Martin ranks in the top 100 in tempo, and the Skyhawks also rank in the bottom 50 in defensive efficiency. Both Martin and Morehead are great offensive rebounding teams, which is a clear positive for the over. Take the over here. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 204.5 | 116-96 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls meet tonight at the United Center. Both of these teams rank in the top 11 in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are both middle of the pack on offensive efficiency. When it comes to pace, in the past month both of them rank in the bottom seven. This should be a slow paced game and these two teams have a bit of a rivalry. Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Jacksonville State v. Eastern Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 57-56 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This number has been bet up to a point where I see value on the under. Both of these teams play a slow it down style of play, and it will take some good shooting numbers to get this one over the total. Eastern Illinois is getting at turning a game into a sloppy contest with their good defense and poor offense. With them being the home team, I think they dictate the pace and style of play here. My number for this one was 139. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Wyoming v. UNLV OVER 150 | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels have picked up the pace of late. In their last game against Colorado State, UNLV pushed the tempo to where Colorado State played their single fastest paced game of the season. UNLV certainly has the athletes to run, and they should continue to play quickly. Wyoming has been one of the biggest tempo changers from last year to this year. Allen Edwards has taken over and this team is playing a whopping 10 possessions per game faster than it did last season. The Cowboys are great at getting to the line, and they shoot 77% from the stripe. UNLV and Wyoming have rarely gotten opponents who want to play as fast as them, but this is one of those times. It should be a track meet in Las Vegas. I had this lined at 156 points. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-30-16 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | 33-32 | Loss | -110 | 544 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Orange Bowl MONEYMAKER* The Michigan Wolverines rank in the bottom 20 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Florida State Seminoles rank in the bottom 40 in the country (out of 128) in pace of play. Both teams will be taking their time between plays in this one. That's a good starting point. Michigan's defense ranks second in the country in yards per play allowed behind only Alabama. The Wolverines defensive front has a big advantage over the Florida State offensive line. Michigan is first in the nation with 114 tackles for a loss. Florida State has been tackled for a loss 99 times this year, which shows how the opposition has been able to get penetration too often. Michigan should get in the backfield a bunch here. The Florida State defense was much better down the stretch. After a slow start, the highly touted recruits started to play the way you would expect. On the other side, Michigan didn't get more than 4.30 yards per play in any of their last three games. The Wolverines finished the regular season 48th in the nation in yards per play on offense. With a slow tempo and one elite defense and two offenses that have their weaknesses, I'm taking the under here. *Update- this line has dropped a lot since I picked it and I would play this for a 3 star rating at the current level. Thank you* |
|||||||
12-30-16 | Rhode Island v. St. Louis UNDER 127.5 | 90-56 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams have a tremendous defense, and they should be too much for a St. Louis team that is expected to play without star Jermaine Bishop again in this one. St. Louis is slowing the game down as much as possible now. Travis Ford realizes his team just isn't good enough to win high scoring games. The Billikens are playing a zone and using up the shot clock on offense. Rhode Island is without key inside presence Hassan Martin, which makes them less able to take advantage of St. Louis' interior defense. The Rams have slowed their tempo down drastically in recent games. St. Louis has scored 55 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. I think they will score about 50 in this one. Rhode Island has seen 4 of their last 6 games stay under this posted total. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-30-16 | Delaware State v. Hawaii UNDER 129 | 66-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star CBB Hawaiian Late Night CASH* The Hawaii Warriors are a totally different team this year. They lost all of their top players from a year ago. Hawaii ranked 66th in the nation in tempo last year. This year they rank 300th in tempo. It's been a major slowdown for the team, because they don't have enough offensive firepower. Delaware State makes a very rare trip to Hawaii. The Hornets have played an extremely tough schedule so far this year. Delaware State's average possession length ranks among the 15 slowest teams in the country. Look for the Hornets to use up the clock throughout this game. Both teams rank among the 30 least efficient offenses in the country. I expect some poor shooting numbers in this contest. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-29-16 | St. Mary's v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 129.5 | 72-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels and Loyola Marymount Lions met three times last year. The final totals in those games were 121, 130, and 108 points. Look at the differences in the two teams from last year to this year. Both teams are playing about two possessions slower on average, which is obviously a positive for the under. Additionally, both teams are quite a bit better as far as their defensive efficiency this year. St. Mary's is among the best teams in the country at slowing the pace down and getting the style of play they want. Marymount isn't going to turn this into a fast paced game either. The push higher here gives me too much value to pass up the under. I like this one to stay low scoring. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-29-16 | Portland v. Pacific UNDER 139.5 | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The steam has come in on the over in this game, and I'll fade that steam and play the under. Portland and Pacific both started the year looking to push the tempo, but both of them have changed their style of play drastically in recent weeks. Their slowest paced games have all come in the last few contests. Pacific just doesn't have enough scoring options to win too often in a shootout, and Damon Stoudamire figured that out and slowed things down. Terry Porter's Portland team played a bunch of ultra fast paced teams early in the year and that has skewed their overall pace profile. I have this game at 65 possessions, which means both teams would have to shoot the ball really well for this to go over. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-29-16 | Tennessee v. Texas A&M UNDER 141.5 | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Texas A&M in their SEC opener. Texas A&M is a much different team than they were last year. The Aggies ranked 224th in the country in terms of tempo last year. They rank 339th in terms of tempo this season. They are averaging about 4 possessions per game less than last year. Texas A&M will work hard to slow the game down here, and Tennessee generally plays to the pace of their opponent. Texas A&M is great at defending without fouling and that limits Tennessee's best source of offense. The Volunteers generally live at the line. I see this total as being several points too high. I'll limit this to a 4 star play instead of a 5 star top rated play because both teams are good on the offensive glass, but I do like the value on this under quite a bit. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-29-16 | Quinnipiac v. Brown OVER 164.5 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are pushing the tempo consistently this year. Quinnipiac is looking to get out in transition at every chance, and they are crashing the offensive boards relentlessly as always. The problem with this strategy is they send everyone after the offensive board, and when the opponent gets the defensive rebound they get a run out chance. Brown plays very fast as well, and the Bears have trouble getting defensive rebounds. Quinnipiac will get a lot of second chance opportunities here, and they will also give up a lot of transition buckets. Both are obviously good for the over. I see an extremely quick tempo and I had this one lined at 169 points. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-28-16 | UNLV v. Colorado State UNDER 142.5 | 77-91 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Colorado State Rams were 55th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 196th in offensive efficiency this year. Colorado State was 274th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 103rd in defensive efficiency this year. The Rams are clearly a lower scoring team all the way around, and they play a UNLV team that appears to be playing to the pace and the style of their opponent in most games. Colorado State is a slightly below average paced team, and I think this game will be played at their tempo. UNLV is doing a good job of defending without fouling this year, and Colorado State relies on trips to the free throw line to score more than almost anyone in the country. Colorado State's effective field goal percentage is 310th in the nation. UNLV is 221st in the nation in offensive efficiency and I don't see them having much success here. These teams would have to shoot a considerably better percentage than normal to push this one over the total. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-28-16 | Missouri State v. Northern Iowa UNDER 129 | 68-64 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers were 44th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 267th in the same category this year. Northern Iowa still has the very slow tempo and strong defense, but they aren't good on offense now. That makes them a good team to look for unders with. Missouri State has played a weak schedule so far this year, and I think they will struggle to score at Northern Iowa. On the other hand, Missouri State's defense has improved by leaps and bounds from last year. Both teams are excellent at defending without fouling. I see this being a tight low scoring game all the way. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-28-16 | Rider v. NC State OVER 153.5 | 71-99 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack are pushing the tempo in a big way with Dennis Smith at point guard for them this year. Smith is heating up from downtown, and he has been great at getting to the line this year (he shoots 80% on free throws). The Wolfpack have scored 97, 99 and 89 points in their last three games. I think they'll put up another big total here. Rider is working hard to speed the game up this year. The Broncs rank 40th in the nation in tempo. Rider isn't likely to change their style of play for this game. While Rider looks good on defense on paper, they haven't played a top 125 team so far this year. NC State should carve up this defense. NC State isn't nearly as good on defense as they are on offense. The tempo here should be quick enough that a push to 160 points is likely. Take the over here. |
|||||||
12-28-16 | South Florida v. East Carolina UNDER 133.5 | 49-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates weren't all that good on offense last year, but they are a lot worse so far this year. They are taking a lot of bad shots and turning it over way too much. On the other hand, this E. Carolina team is very good defensively. The Pirates were 239th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 12th in the nation in that same category this year. USF is without two of their best players for this game. The Bulls only scores 61 against Elon, 62 against Florida Atlantic, and 48 points against Northern Illinois. This is the best defense they have played so far. The two regular season games between these two teams last year were 69-52 and 52-39. Another low scoring one here. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-28-16 | West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) UNDER 56.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 505 h 10 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* I like both of these defenses. West Virginia played in a Big 12 Conference that was loaded with really good offenses and good quarterbacks. Their defense held their own. West Virginia only allowed 358 yards against Oklahoma State's very good offense. The Mountaineers allowed only 379 yards and 17 points to a Texas Tech offense that routinely scored 40 points or more a week. In 9 of West Virginia's 12 games this year they allowed 21 points or less. Miami's defense is 11th in the country in yards per play allowed this year. Mark Richt has done a great job getting this Miami defense going once again after they underperformed the last few years. Skyler Howard has been bad down the stretch for West Virginia. His performance against a bad Baylor defense was terrible in the Mountaineers last game of the year. I think Miami can make West Virginia one-dimensional on offense here. Both teams do a really good job limiting explosive plays. I see the defenses playing well in this bowl. I had this line at 49 points. Take the under big. |
|||||||
12-27-16 | SMU v. Memphis UNDER 139.5 | 58-54 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers have played at a quick pace so far this year, but I believe that has more to do with who they have played against than anything else. Memphis has played 9 of their 12 games this year against teams who rank in the top 1/4 of the country in overall pace. Memphis was slowed down by Providence and UAB, and SMU plays at a slower pace than either of those two teams. I think the fact that Memphis has played in a lot of high scoring games this year is giving us a few extra points in line value here. SMU ranks 334th out of 351 teams in the nation in tempo. The Mustangs don't stray from their style of play for anyone, and that won't change here. SMU has played only two games on the road this year, and their shooting percentage was much lower in those games than the rest of their games on the season. This number should be in the 133 or 134 area. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple UNDER 41 | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 479 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls play at the 125th tempo (out of 128 teams) in the country. This means they are extremely slow paced. Wake Forest plays at the 104th tempo, so they are very slow as well. Temple is without Coach Rhule now, and that has to hurt them in some way. This Temple defense should still be very solid though. Temple is fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed at only 4.60. Wake Forest is 125th in yards per play on offense. Basically, it's hard to imagine Wake Forest scoring more than about 10 points or so. On the other side, Wake Forest's defense has improved a lot under Dave Clawson. Wake Forest is top 40 in all the major defensive categories this year. Temple is a good team overall, but their offense is just 65th in the nation in total offense. Since this is in a dome and Rhule is gone, I'll limit this to a 4 star play instead of a 5 star play, but my number here was 35 points. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-26-16 | Lions v. Cowboys OVER 44 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 88 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football CASH* The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions rank 10th and 12th in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas is a very balanced offense with Dak Prescott doing a great job at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliot already as one of the top two or three running backs in the NFL. Detroit's offense is reliant on the passing game. Matt Stafford has been very good this year, and his finger injury is reportedly much better than it was last week. The Cowboys secondary takes a lot of chances, which means they could easily pick some off, but they could also give up some big plays. Dallas is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Detroit is 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. These two defenses are both below the league average in many key advanced statistics. I think we have a line that is too low thanks the Lions going on a big under run of late. This game isn't being played in bad weather like Detroit's game last week. It is in the dome, and this is a great environment for points. We'll look to profit from the overreaction in the line. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-26-16 | Maryland v. Boston College UNDER 44.5 | 30-36 | Loss | -110 | 454 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Boston College's offense is just awful. In fact, they were second worst in the entire nation in total offense this year. Who was worse? Only Rutgers. Ouch. Boston College averaged only 288 yards per game on the season. The under was 8-4 in their 12 games this year. Maryland was 94th in the nation in total offense. The under was 8-4 in their 12 games this year. What about the defenses? Boston College ranked 8th best in the nation in total defense. Maryland finished 81st in the nation in total defense. Boston College's defense has been very good against everyone they played except the most elite offenses. Maryland's offense is far from elite. The Maryland defense gave up some big numbers against teams like Ohio State and Michigan, but Boston College scored 17 points or less in half of their games this year, so I think Maryland's defense will be fine here. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-25-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 222.5 | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Warriors/Cavs MONEY* The Golden State Warriors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past eight games. The Cleveland Cavaliers rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games. The Warriors are obviously going to look to push the tempo, but the Cavs aren't running of late. Cleveland is 24th in the NBA in tempo in the past ten games. I think they'll look to slow this one down a bit. Golden State is certainly a different team with Durant, but it is interesting to note that the highest total in the past ten meetings between these two teams has been 211 points. Only one of the last ten games between these two has gone above 216 points. The under is 30-13-1 since 2005 in NBA games on Christmas Day. This makes sense because many teams celebrate the day before with their families. This number is too high for me to pass up. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-25-16 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 211 | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Christmas Day BEST Bet* The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks play the noon eastern game on Christmas Day. This is a tremendous spot for an under. The under is actually 7-2 in the last 9 early games on Christmas Day. One of the two that went over did so by half a point. The NBA has Christmas Eve off, which means the players generally celebrate Christmas with their families on Christmas Eve. The quick turnaround to have to play an early game on Christmas makes for a sloppy game played at a slower pace than normal. That should be the case again this year. I think the only way this one goes off is both teams shooting it really well from the floor. In their last ten games, the Knicks are 19th in offensive efficiency and the Celtics are 22nd in that category. Defensively, Boston is 5th in the NBA and the Knicks are 17th. Overall on Christmas Day, the under is 30-13-1 since 2005. We'll look for the early game to stay under the posted total again. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii OVER 69.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Hawaii Bowl MONEYMAKER* MTSU is expected to get star quarterback Brent Stockstill back for this game. That's huge news for the Blue Raiders. Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country when healthy. Hawaii's defense is allowing 6.30 yards per play on year, which is 107th out of 128 teams in the country. Hawaii's pass defense is a major weakness. They rank 118th in the country in opponents QBRating. Stockstill should have a great game against this Hawaii secondary, especially since he has two great weapons on the outside in Richie James and Ty Lee. MTSU's offense has far more balance this year because I'Tavius Mathers has emerged as a great running back for this team. Before the year, many wondered whether MTSU would be able to run at all. In reality, MTSU ranks 5th in the nation in yards per carry at 6.05. Hawaii can't stop them here. Hawaii's offense has been much better now that Dru Brown is under center. MTSU's run defense is a major weakness. They have allowed 200 yards or more on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. Hawaii should get some big plays on the ground in this one. My number here was quite a bit higher than this, but with Stockstill returning from an injury and 16 mph winds in the forecast, I'll keep this to a 3 star rated play. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears OVER 47.5 | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears might have found something in Matt Barkley. His numbers are really impressive since taking over, and you have to remember that he has been playing in some really bad conditions during that time. Barkley has thrown for over 300 yards twice in the four games he has started. In this one, Barkley will be up against a Washington defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I'm not impressed by this Redskins defense other than their ability to get after the quarterback. I think this is a spot where the Bears can get some big plays on the outside. The Bears defense is beaten up, but they have fought hard. Still, Chicago is likely to give up quite a bit here. Washington is first in the NFL in yards per play on the road. They are third in yards per play overall. This is an offense that is well balanced and has big play ability. The weather is usually a negative this time of the year in Chicago, and I think that has kept the total down. This time around though it is expected to be 33 degrees with almost no wind. That's as good as you can ask for. The over is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 games after a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-23-16 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 206 | 109-115 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Memphis has been able to win this year solely because of their defense, because the offense hasn't been any good. Memphis is actually the second worst offense in the NBA in efficiency, only the Philadelphia 76ers have been worse. It is surprising to see Houston playing some defense this year. Houston ranks in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Rockets are playing fast, but they are only 9th in the NBA in pace, which is a little slower than I would have expected. Memphis plays at the 28th quickest pace out of 30 teams in the league. The 3 referees calling this game have solid long term under trends. With this being the last day before the Christmas break for these teams, I see this being a good spot to play the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-23-16 | Rutgers v. Seton Hall UNDER 138.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have dramatically slowed their tempo in the last few games. Early in the season they were averaging about 75 possessions per game. In their last four games, they are averaging 69 possessions per game. That's a big difference, and it is why they have played some low scoring games of late. Rutgers has a new coach who is doing a great job, and he has the team playing defense. Rutgers was 282nd out of 351 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 18th so far this year! Quite the turnaround. Rutgers is playing at about 65 or 66 possessions per game of late, and I think this game should be around the 67 or 68 possessions mark. Both teams would need to shoot it better than their season averages to get to this total. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy OVER 67 | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 86 h 23 m | Show |
*5 Star College Football Bowl Game of the WEEK* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense has been tremendous this year. Louisiana Tech ranks second in the nation in yards per play at 7.56. This is a big play offense. They have 14 passing plays of 50 yards or more which is the most in the country this year. They also have 10 plays overall of 70 yards or more. That's what you call an explosive offense. How good have they been? Louisiana Tech has scored at least 44 points in their last 7 straight games that meant anything at all. In their 39-24 loss at Southern Miss, LA Tech had nothing to play for since they had locked themselves into the Conference USA title game, and I'm more than willing to throw that one out when handicapping this game. I think Louisiana Tech will score 44 points or more again here against a Navy defense that doesn't see explosive offenses like this one very often. Navy's pass defense ranks in the bottom ten in the nation in several key metrics. They are allowing more than 8.4 yards per pass attempt. On the other side, Louisiana Tech has two key linebackers questionable for this one with academic issues. The Navy offense struggled against Temple and against Army, but this is a whole different matchup. Navy gets to go against a Louisiana Tech defense that hasn't faced a triple option team in three years. Louisiana Tech's defense allowed 5.68 yards per play, which was 63rd in the country. Zach Abey should be much better for Navy with now three weeks preparing as the starting quarterback in this system. Remember how good this Navy offense was this year. They averaged 37.4 points per game. They are down some without Will Worth, but I still think they'll put up their fair share of points in this one. Take the over big. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Idaho v. Stanford UNDER 129.5 | 80-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Idaho Vandals offense is about as bad as you'll find. Idaho has twice scored less than 50 points in a game this year, and now they are going up against the best defense they have played this year. I expect Idaho to have a very low point total in this one. The Vandals play a unique defense that slows the game down, and Stanford will be happy to play at a slow pace. The Cardinal rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the nation. They rank 192nd in offensive efficiency. Idaho is 160th in defensive efficiency and 266th in offensive efficiency. Stanford was blown out by SMU in their last game and I imagine they have a bad taste in their mouth from that one. I think that shows up with a strong effort on the defensive end. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Texas-Arlington v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 141.5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Red Hot CASH* The UT Arlington Mavericks have changed the way they play this year. UT Arlington ranked 22nd in average possession length on offense last year, so they were running and gunning. This year they are 171st in the country in that same metric. They are playing at an average pace on offense. Importantly, UT Arlington is very good on defense this year. They rank 60th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are slowing down the opponent a lot with strong man defense. Loyola Marymount has been slowing everyone down of late. They made two extremely fast paced teams in Portland State and Cal State Northridge slow down drastically in recent weeks. That shows me a lot. Loyola is great at dictating the pace, and they are the slower paced team here. Since UT Arlington has played slower games of late though, I expect them to be fine with the slower tempo. Expect the slower pace to rule the day here. I have this game at 134 points. That gives us plenty of value here. Take the under big. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Rider v. Massachusetts OVER 145.5 | 67-78 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Rider Broncs have decided to play a much faster tempo. They were #261 in average length of possession last year. So far this year, they are #57 in the country. The Broncs have had at least 77 possessions in four of their last six games. If you are playing games at 77 possessions, you are playing at a blazing fast tempo. UMass is always glad to run. The Minutemen have already had four games played at a pace of 78 possessions or faster this year. I think this will be their fifth. Both Umass and Rider have had some trouble shooting the ball, and that is what keeps this from being a bigger play, but I have to make a play on a game when a total is in the mid 140's and I expect a tempo of 79 possessions. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Delaware v. South Florida UNDER 130.5 | 53-81 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The South Florida Bulls are without arguably their two best offensive players. Jahmal McMurray was their best player, and he has decided to quit the team, so that is a huge hit for them especially on offense. Troy Holston is out with an injury and he was taking 21% of the team's shots.South Florida scored only 48 points last game when both of these guys were out of the lineup. Delaware can't win without making the game sloppy and keeping it low scoring. The Blue Hens rank 315th in the nation in offensive efficiency. South Florida ranks 313th in offensive efficiency. Basically, this should be a really ugly game that would be no fun to watch, but I do see value in betting the under in this one. I had this total at 125 points. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Cal-Irvine v. UTEP UNDER 141 | 62-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters definitely burned me when I played an under with them yesterday, but I'm going back again today. Yesterday's game was their highest scoring of the season by a large margin. Akron canned 15 three pointers in that game. They aren't playing a good offensive team today, and the total is posted higher because of yesterday's high score, which I believe is an aberration. UC Irvine's average length of possession is 313th out of 351 in terms of pace. They definitely slow the game down. Their offense is weak while generally their defense is good. UTEP ranks 231st in possession length. The tempo should be slow here and barring some high shooting marks, I like this one to stay under. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | George Washington v. Miami (Fla) UNDER 134.5 | 64-72 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are playing without Yuta Watanabe. He averaged 16.75 points per game in the games he played so far this year. Offensively, the team is definitely weaker without him. George Washington now takes on the best defense they have faced this year. Miami ranks fourth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Hurricanes have a lot of length all over the floor, and they contest most shots very well. The Hurricanes last 7 games have all finished under this posted total. George Washington and Miami both like to play at a slow tempo. I think that will continue here. I also like that both teams are near the top of the charts in playing defense without fouling. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-21-16 | Kent State v. Oregon State UNDER 134.5 | Top | 50-69 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Oregon State Beavers are changing up the way they play. Oregon State is looking to stall the game out as much as possible. Oregon State Coach Wayne Tinkle recent said as much. The team just doesn't have enough ball handling and offensive firepower not to get into fast paced games that are high scoring. Oregon State could play faster last year with Gary Payton Jr., but things are much different now. Oregon State played a 58 possession game against Portland in their last game. Why is that important? Portland pushes the pace a lot more than Kent State does, and yet Oregon State slowed that game down to a 53-45 final. I think there is a lot of value here while the oddsmakers adjust to this new style of play for Oregon State. Take the under big. |
|||||||
12-21-16 | Clemson v. South Carolina UNDER 136.5 | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The South Carolina Gamecocks rank third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have proven multiple times how good they are on defense. They allowed only 69 points in an overtime game against fast paced Monmouth. They allowed only 46 points against a very good Michigan offense. They allowed only 50 points against a good Syracuse team. South Carolina is without star Sindarius Thornwell right now. That hurts them the most on offense, where he was the guy the offense ran through. Clemson always ranks high on the defensive end under Brad Brownell. Brownell is a defensive-minded coach, and he has some talented players with length on the perimeter this year. South Carolina hasn't been playing many teams that are this good on defense so far this year. This is a big rivalry game and there is a history of low scoring contests in this series. The last seven games have all stayed under this posted total. In fact, only one of those games has topped 128 points. Too much value to pass up on the under. The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in the Gamecocks last 4 home games. The under is 7-0 in S Carolina's last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Clemson's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-21-16 | Akron v. UC-Irvine UNDER 138 | 88-80 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters don't have star Luke Nelson. He hasn't played yet this year, this offense is lost without him. Irvine is doing their best to slow the game down and win with defense. They have played a lot of low scoring games this year, even when they are playing against a team with a fast tempo. Akron is playing much slower this year. The Zips do shoot the ball well so that is a bit of a concern, but UC Irvine's defense is better than average. Another factor that helps us here is this is being played on a neutral floor. It is UTEP's home floor, which is obviously a place neither of these teams normally play at. That helps the under because of the different shooting backdrop and general unfamiliarity. I had this game totaled at 133 points. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-21-16 | Illinois v. Missouri UNDER 136.5 | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers and the Illinois Fighting Illini have a pretty solid rivalry. These teams take pride in this game, and it will be hard fought. In the last three contests between these two the final scores have been 65-64, 62-59, and 68-63. All comfortably under this posted total. A big factor here is that this game is played at the Scottrade Center. This is well known to be a terrible gym for jumpshooters. The shooting backdrop is very difficult. This isn't a place where these two teams are accustomed to playing, so it is likely we will see some below average shooting. Missouri is looking to push the pace this year, but they rank 313th in effective field goal percentage. On the other hand, the Tigers rank ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that fights hard, but isn't good at scoring. Illinois has slowed down their tempo a lot from last year, and they are the better team. I think this one stays around 130. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-21-16 | Drexel v. Quinnipiac OVER 160.5 | 91-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The over has value here because both of these teams should be able to take advantage of their opponents weakness on defense. Quinnipiac is a team that relentlessly crashes the offensive boards. The team sends everyone after the offensive board, and that leaves them in some terrible positions when it comes to transition defense. The Bobcats are one of the worst transition defenses in the country. On the other side, Drexel is terrible at defensive rebounding. The Dragons have given up a bunch of second chance points against far lesser offensive rebounding teams than Quinnipiac. I think this means that Drexel will get a lot of run out opportunities when they do get the defensive rebound, which will lead to quick scores. At the same time, Quinnipiac should be able to get a bunch of second chance points which are huge for the over as well. I had this number in the mid 160's. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-20-16 | UC Riverside v. Northern Colorado OVER 139.5 | 61-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Colorado Bears want to play fast under Jeff Linder. They have picked up the tempo in their last three games, and I expect them to keep going here. UC Riverside has been terrible on offense this year, but they have played the 16th toughest schedule in the country. They have gone up against teams like Utah, UCLA, and UNLV. The Highlanders are playing at an average pace, it is just their shooting numbers have been atrocious on the year. I don't think they are a good shooting team, but they aren't as bad as their numbers so far. With both teams here ranking in the bottom 100 in field goal percentage defense, I think this is a game where we see both teams shoot better than their season average. Because UC Riverside has shot the ball so poorly, this total has dropped several points, and now I believe it is a solid value. Last year these two teams played to a 143 total. Both teams are playing faster this year. Take the over here. |
|||||||
12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins OVER 50.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Monday Night MONEY* The Carolina Panthers are allowing 6.6 yards per play on the road so far this year. That is the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Which team is first in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games? Washington is at 6.7 yards per play. This Redskins offense is playing terrific right now. Kirk Cousins has made much better decisions with the football, and the running game has given them a lot more balance of late. Jordan Reed is still a tremendous weapon for the Redskins also. As good as the Redskins offense is, I don't like this Washington defense. They are 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I think Carolina gets quite a few big plays in this one. While Carolina technically has nothing to play for now, I think a Monday night game will keep them interested here. The Redskins have allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year. The Panthers have allowed 40 points or more in 3 of their last 5 road games. The over is 4-0 in the Panthers last 4 after throwing for 150 yards or less last game. The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 December games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-19-16 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Green Bay OVER 151.5 | 92-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star CBB Under Radar CASH* The Green Bay Phoenix play at the 7th quickest tempo of any team in the country. It isn't very often that you'll see a total this low on one of their games. SIU Edwardsville is a team that typically plays to the pace of the opponent. Overall, on the year SIU Edwardsville ranks 105th in tempo out of 351 teams, so they are pretty quick as well. I think we are getting value from both teams recent games. Green Bay just lost 73-59 to Wisconsin. Wisconsin isn't going to let anyone run, and it shouldn't be a surprise that the game was lower scoring there. Edwardsville is coming off a low scoring game against St. Louis. I had the under in that one and cashed, but the primary reason for the under was St. Louis and their slow style of play. In this one, Edwardsville goes up against a team that wants to run in a big way. This number has been bet down to the point where I see value. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-19-16 | St Francis PA v. Marquette OVER 167.5 | 65-78 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been tremendous on offense this year. Marquette ranks 18th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have scored over 100 points twice this year. They have scored 81 points or more in 8 of their 10 games this year. Marquette will be up against a very weak defense in this one. St. Francis (PA) comes into this one ranked 319th in defensive efficiency on the year, and that is despite the fact that they have played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Marquette will easily be the best team they have faced so far. Lehigh put up 100 on St. Francis two games ago. Marquette is pushing the pace in a big way, and so far this year St. Francis has been pushing the issue as well. I think Marquette puts up 100 in this one, and St. Francis gets us enough. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Western Michigan v. Washington OVER 169.5 | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star CBB Sunday Night Totals MONEY* The Washington Huskies are averaging 93 points per game on their home floor this year. Washington plays at the seventh quickest tempo of any team in the country. Washington plays against a weak Western Michigan defense here. The Broncos are 339th in effective field goal percentage defense out of 351 teams in the country. Western Michigan already allowed 91 points against a Boise State team that doesn't run very much. They also allowed 97 points at home against UNC Wilmington. Western Michigan should be able to score enough here. Washington's defense ranks 206th in defensive efficiency, so they aren't good on this end either. With the pace and the defenses, I'll take this one over the posted total. |
|||||||
12-18-16 | 49ers v. Falcons OVER 51 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 146 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Falcons are first in the NFL in yards per play at 6.5. San Francisco's defense is banged up and they have been terrible away from home. The 49ers are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road. San Francisco doesn't have anyone in the secondary to slow down the Falcons deep threats. Matt Ryan and this Atlanta offense are firing on all cylinders right now. I think Atlanta puts up a big number in this game. San Francisco still plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. That is certainly a big help when you are taking the over. San Francisco's offense had serious problems with the weather in Chicago two weeks ago, and then they are a solid under team at home. Coming off two unders and now traveling to play in a dome against a high scoring team, I see this as a great opportunity to play the over. The Falcons defense is 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7, so they aren't all that good either. I see a lot of big plays in this game. The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Falcons home games so far this year. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Fairfield v. NC State OVER 148.5 | Top | 78-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
*5 Star College Hoops TOP Play of the Week* The Fairfield Stags like to play fast. Sydney Johnson's team went 7-24 two years ago and before last season he decided it was time to try something different. That was speeding up the tempo. It helped the team to a 19-14 year last year. Fairfield is 5-3 so far this year, and they are running once again. NC State has picked up the pace drastically this year. The Wolfpack are playing about 3 possessions per game faster than last season. Dennis Smith is the main reason for that change. Smith is an extraordinary freshman point guard with tons of speed. He is a great distributor, and can get to the rack when he needs to as well. The thing that intrigues me quite a bit here is how bad the offenses have been that Fairfield has played so far this year. Fairfield's defense looks decent on paper, but the Stags haven't played an offense ranked higher than 88th in offensive efficiency so far this year. NC State ranks 36th in the nation in offensive efficiency. I think NC State can put up a bunch of points in this spot. The Wolfpack defense has only been mediocre on the year. They rank 113th in defensive efficiency. Fairfield should score a solid amount based on the tempo of the game here. The over is 12-4 in NC State's last 16 home games. I think this game gets into the upper 150's, so I see a lot of value here. Take the over big. |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 45 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Steelers/Bengals Rivalry CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. It's no secret that these two teams don't like each other at all. In general, the bigger the game is the better it is for the under. Cincinnati isn't going to make the playoffs this year. That means this game is their Super Bowl for the rest of the season. There is nothing more the Bengals would love to do than ruin Pittsburgh's playoff standing. In the past three games, Cincinnati's defense is allowing only 4.6 yards per game. That is second in the NFL to the Denver Broncos. Pittsburgh's defense has been much better in recent weeks as well. The Steelers rank 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Steelers have allowed only 12.5 points per game in their last four games. The weather should help some here as well. Light snow showers or flurries are expected and winds of 10 to 15 mph with temperatures in the mid 20's. Since 2007, when a team is in the first of three straight divisional games to finish the season like Pittsburgh is (Cincy, Bal, Cle) the under is 26-4-1 when the total is 40 points or higher. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 31-4 angle. I think both defenses play well here. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 40 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Giants and the Detroit Lions meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast here calls for a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 15 mph gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the game. That will make it a lot tougher to throw the ball, which is important since neither of these teams can run the ball. There is clearly a lot of sharp money on the under here, and while I would have liked to have this one at 43 or 44, I still think it is a good play at this level. Matt Stafford has a finger injury and that should limit him a bit. The Giants defense is sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they are fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Giants offense is fourth worst in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. Only the Jaguars, Browns, and Rams have been worse. Detroit is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards. New York is 30th in rushing yards. I think we see both offenses struggle through the elements on Sunday. The under is 7-0 in the Lions last 7 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. an NFC foe. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 games. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | North Carolina v. Kentucky OVER 162.5 | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* All signs point to an absolute track meet on the floor in this one. Kentucky is shooting at the fourth fastest pace of any team in the country. North Carolina is 12th so far this year. The next time I see Roy Williams slow a game down will be the first time. Williams was asked about whether he would slow the pace down this week and unequivocally said no way. De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are great at pushing the pace for Kentucky. Fox has been one of the best players in the country this year. Kentucky has scored 87 points or more in all but one game so far this year. North Carolina has scored 93 points or more in 6 of 11 games this season. It is a neutral court which is a slight negative for the over, but that is being factored in too much in my opinion. This is must see television, and I think we see a close game with both teams getting up into the 80's. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | SIU-Edwardsville v. St. Louis UNDER 135 | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The St. Louis Billikens figured out that they cannot run the type of offense that Travis Ford wanted to run when he came over. He'll get players later on that can run more, but right now this offense is way too bad to be trying to run the floor. They have to settle down and stall the game out. They have done that in their last two games and Coach Ford has suggested they need to keep doing that. Jermaine Bishop missed last game. He is the team's best player. He is questionable for this one. SIU Edwardsville has been up and down as far as their point production on the year, but last game they lost 49-44 to Missouri Western State. Wow. Edwardsville and St. Louis are two of the least efficient offenses in the country, and when you put them together I think we will see a very sloppy game where neither team gets into an offensive rhythm. I had this one at 130 points. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois-Chicago UNDER 149 | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames took a huge hit when their star Dikembe Dixson went down with a season ending injury last game. The entire offense ran through Dixson and he took about 1/3 of the team's shots. No one on the team can match his slashing ability, and that is what had them living at the line so far this year. Loyola Chicago always looks to slow the game down. Last year, Loyola was able to get the matchup between these two teams played at their tempo. The final was 64-47. I don't expect it to be that low this year, but 149 is too high. UIC will still try to play fast, but their offensive efficiency level will be way down without Dixson the rest of the year. Loyola is favored by several here, and they are great at slowing the game down when they have the lead. Also note that Loyola is great at playing defense without fouling and UIC relies heavily on getting to the lien. I think a total in the low 140's would have made sense. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State UNDER 57 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 239 h 49 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs run the ball more than anyone in the country except for the teams that run the triple option. In fact, San Diego State run it even more frequently than Georgia Southern and Tulane, which both run option offenses. San Diego is going to want to run Donnell Pumphrey consistently in this game. Pumphrey needs 107 yards to break Ron Dayne's career rushing record. Still, it might be tough sledding here. Houston's run defense is excellent. How good? Houston is second behind only Alabama in yards per carry allowed this year. Houston is giving up just 2.87 yards per carry. San Diego State's secondary is the strength of the team, and Houston is a pass heavy team this year. Led by DeMontae Kazee, this Aztecs secondary is very aggressive on the line of scrimmage, and I think Houston's receivers will struggle to get separation. Houston isn't moving quite as quickly this year as they did in the past on offense. San Diego State ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo. I had this one totaled at 49 points, so this is more than a touchdown off my number. Take the under big. *This line has been bet down since the release. I would still play the under here though. I believe this is a strong situation.* |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Kansas State v. Colorado State UNDER 134.5 | 89-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams are playing noticeably slower this year. They have a less experienced team, and I imagine Larry Eustachy has slowed things down on purpose. On the other hand, Colorado State is much better on defense than they were a year ago. This is a tall team with length on the perimeter, and they are making it tough on opponents backcourts. The Kansas State Wildcats defense is good every year, and this year is no different. Bruce Weber is a defensive minded coach first. Kansas State ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo, and with Colorado State not pushing the issue, the tempo should be very slow here. Without some really good shooting numbers from these teams, I think we'll see a game that stays low scoring. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Arizona v. Texas A&M UNDER 134 | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats only have 7 players healthy right now. They can't push the tempo, because they have to stay fresh. They have slowed things down quite a bit in recent games. Texas A&M is without Danuel House and Jalen Jones, their top two players from last year. Because of that, the team is playing a much slower pace and playing a lot of low scoring games this year. Texas A&M held UCLA to only 74 points, by far their lowest point output of the season, so that shows you how well they can slow down the opposition. This game is being played at noon eastern, or 11 am central. This is a really early game for both of these teams. Also, it is played in the Toyota Center, which is noted for being one of the worst shooting backdrops in the country. It is especially difficult for guys who never play there, and obviously neither of these teams play there normally. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-16-16 | Long Beach State v. Oregon State UNDER 139 | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star CBB TGIF Play of Day* The Oregon State Beavers were embarrassed by losing at home to lowly Savannah State in their last game. Co-captain and coaches son Tres Tinkle gave an emotional speech to the team after the game. Both Wayne (Dad and Coach) and Tres talked this week about the importance of focusing on defense. Oregon State hasn't been strong enough on defense this year. Tres Tinkle is injured right now, and he is no doubt the team's best player. He knew he had to step up and light a fire into his teammates though. Coach Tinkle said he believes the Beavers defense has been "atrocious" of late. Tinkle also said some other important things to an Oregon State beat writer this week. He said he wants the team to slow down and play a much slower tempo in order to limit offensive mistakes and help opponents not get out in transition against them. Oregon State actually held Savannah State to their slowest pace of the year by far, so they started the slower pace last game. They play Long Beach State in this one. Long Beach State has some ugly defensive numbers this year, but that is primarily because they have played the number one ranked schedule in the country. Long Beach State will be middle of the road in defense by the end of the year. Long Beach State is playing at a slower tempo than they did last year, so I don't think they'll push the issue too much here. With a bigger effort on defense from Oregon State and two inefficient offenses, I'll take the under here. |
|||||||
12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | 125-121 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* This posted total is too high for me to overlook. The Raptors and Hawks met earlier this year and the posted total was 207. That game finished with 212 points. Toronto won by a whopping margin of 128-84. Toronto has been putting up some massive point totals of late, and that has contributed to this line. Still, it is important to point out that Toronto ranks 23rd in the NBA in pace. Atlanta ranks 5th in tempo. Atlanta is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. While they have been poor on defense lately, I think they show some pride here after giving up 128 points to Toronto last time. If there was ever a time to work hard on defense, this is it for Atlanta. Also important is the fact that Atlanta is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have a hard time scoring a ton of points because they take too many poor shots. In the past few years, the normal total for a meeting between these two teams has been about 205 points. I can't pass up the value when we see a total this high. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-15-16 | Georgia Southern v. Florida International UNDER 142.5 | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The FIU Panthers are using up 19.4 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That means on offense they are 337th fastest out of 351 teams. Clearly, they are looking to slow the game down and keep it low scoring. FIU just isn't very good on offense. The Panthers don't have a go to scorer, and they don't get to the line much at all. Georgia Southern has slowed their pace down from last year. The Eagles have made defense a priority this year. This team was really weak on defense, but so far this year they are up to average on that side of the ball. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the nation in free throw attempts. I think this one is a few points too high. I'll take the under here. |
|||||||
12-14-16 | Illinois-Chicago v. DePaul OVER 154 | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The DePaul Blue Demons host the UIC Flames in a battle of two teams from Chicago on Wednesday night. Last year when these two teams played the final was 79-52, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The pace was ridiculously fast at 79 possessions. UIC scored only 0.70 points per possession in that game. The Flames offense was very inefficient last year, but they are much better on offense this season. UIC averaged less than 0.89 points per possession last year, but this year they average almost 1.01 points per possession. That's a huge difference, and this team is playing at the 18th fastest tempo of any team in the country. UIC gets to the line more often than any other team in the country (out of 351 teams). DePaul has played a bunch of teams who look to slow the tempo down. This will be the first team to really push the pace against DePaul. I think that gives us value on the number here. DePaul ranks in the top 40 in the nation in free throws attempted as well, and both of these teams foul more than the average college basketball team. My numbers had this one at 160 points. I think both teams make a living at the charity stripe and the pace is very quick. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-14-16 | St. Louis v. Southern Illinois UNDER 136.5 | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Illinois Salukis host the St. Louis Billikens here. Travis Ford wanted to play an uptempo style of basketball with his St. Louis team, but he is quickly realizing he can't do it yet. Why? St. Louis is awful on offense. Pushing the tempo gives them very little chance to win because the opponent is almost always a more efficient offense. St. Louis has scored 64 points or less in 7 of their 9 games this year. That is despite the fact that they played their first four games at a blazing fast tempo. Take a look at their last game against lowly Chicago State. St. Louis won that game 45-43 and scored a grand total of two points in the last 9:38 of that game! Southern Illinois is weak this year as well without Anthony Beane who was their star scorer a year ago. The Salukis rank 303rd in the country in pace out of 351 teams. They will want to play slowly here, and I think St. Louis will be happy with that also based on their recency. I think this is a game that stays around 130. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-13-16 | Morehead State v. Eastern Washington UNDER 154.5 | 86-88 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Morehead State Eagles and the Eastern Washington Eagles meet on Tuesday night. I understand why the total is high here, both teams struggle on the defensive end. Still, I think this one has gotten a little too high to pass up. Morehead State ranks 250th in tempo on the offensive side alone (the time it takes them to put up a shot when they have possession). Eastern Washington ranks 318th out of 351 teams in the country. Clearly, both teams are looking to slow the game down. In a game between two teams that slow the game down this much, this total in the mid 150's is very high. It will take some really impressive shooting numbers to get this one past the posted total. I think both teams will shoot it pretty well, but not well enough. One thing that likely helps inflate this total is the fact that Eastern Washington has played three overtime games this year. Two of them have gone into double overtime. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The New England Patriots are definitely short-handed on offense right now. There's no doubt that Tom Brady is one of the greats of all time, but it would hurt anyone to be without Rob Gronkowski. To make matters even worse, the Patriots are now also without Amendola. He had 65 catches last year, so he's obviously a big part of the offense as well. It might surprise you to know that New England runs the ball 44.33% of the time. That is the fifth highest rushing percentage in the NFL. This year's Baltimore defense is amazing against the run. They are clearly the best team in the NFL against the run, and they are the best in several years according to the advanced metrics. Brady has less passing game weapons here, so this is important. Joe Flacco had a great game last week, but it was still only one game. Baltimore's offense has been disappointing most of the year. New England's defense ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. This is an underappreciated unit. The weather should play a role here. Sustained wind of 15 miles per hour is expected during this game with gusts of 20-25 mph. Wind hurts passing games more than anything else. Take the under in this one. |
|||||||
12-11-16 | St. Joe's v. Drexel OVER 142.5 | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Drexel Dragons are playing much quicker under first year head coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons are shooting it in an average of 15.5 seconds each time they get the ball. That is 42nd fastest in the country out of 351 teams. St. Joe's plays at an average pace. The Hawks have played several good defensive teams of late, and their offensive numbers have been hit hard because of that. Drexel will be the worst defensive team they have played in a long time. St. Joe's has some good long range shooters, and Drexel has struggled all year to get out on shooters. Look for a game that gets close to 150 points. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills UNDER 47 | 27-20 | Push | 0 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Weather will be a big factor in this game. Both teams will have to play very conservatively. The Steelers defense is much improved and Buffalo's defense is better at home. The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for 10-15 mph winds and about an inch of snow during the afternoon. The combination of snow and some wind is really helpful for the under. There isn't a place in the NFL where the weather can change the game more than Buffalo. Buffalo plays at exactly an average pace of play, while Pittsburgh is slightly slower than average in their tempo. Things usually slow down when weather is a big factor, and I think that will be the case here. Buffalo's running game is definitely good with McCoy. I think they'll get some yards here, but I think Buffalo will be too one-dimensional to pile up the points with a situation like this. Pittsburgh will know the run is coming. The Buffalo defense was embarrassed in the third and fourth quarter last week at Oakland, and I think they bounce back here. This team has a lot of talent on the defensive end, and here is where they should show some pride. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 43 | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Week* The weather will be a big factor in Cleveland this weekend and I want to get this one locked in early. Both teams will need to be very conservative with the wind and snow on Sunday afternoon by the lake. I think this is a game that is played very low scoring and close the whole way. The forecast here calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon and winds of about 15 mph. Those are terrible conditions, and that should definitely change the way this one is played. Robert Griffin III is expected to start here for Cleveland, and in the snow and wind I have to expect the Browns offensive game plan to be very conservative. In their last 3 games, the Bengals defense has been much better. In fact, they rank fifth in the league in yards per play allowed at only 4.8 during the last three games. Even more interesting is the fact that Cleveland's defense ranks 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed during the last three games. The Browns have faced some weaker offenses during that time, and they face a weak one here. Cincinnati isn't the same without A.J. Green, and they definitely miss Gio Bernard in the backfield as well. The Bengals running game hasn't been very good with Jeremy Hill. Cleveland is coming off a bye week, and they know this is likely their best chance to win a game this year. I think they fight harder than normal here. A lot of running the ball and moving clock because of the weather will help. Take the under big. *Note- The line has moved down since I made this play a couple days ago. The weather continues to look bad and I would still make this a top rated play on the under. It looks like a sloppy contest is in store.* |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Chargers v. Panthers OVER 49 | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have nothing left to play for. Neither do the San Diego Chargers. When neither team is motivated, I find that the game is generally higher scoring because motivation and important games generally makes the defenses play much better. Here, we have two offenses who are capable of making a lot of big plays. Phillip Rivers gets to play in North Carolina for the first time since he played at NC State, and I think Rivers will have a big day here. Carolina's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed, and they rank in the bottom ten in their last three games. Luke Kuechly will miss this game again, and his absence is a big loss for the Panthers. San Diego ranks 9th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The over is 5-2 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The over is 11-4-1 in the Panthers last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-10-16 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State UNDER 142.5 | 71-84 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This is definitely a rivalry game, and I think that helps the under. These teams will be working hard on the defensive end in this one. They played once already this year and the total finished at 131. I think this one finishes in the 130's as well. New Mexico State likes to slow the game down. This game is on their home floor, so I expect them to be able to get their tempo even better than they did in game one between these teams. New Mexico relies heavily on getting to the line for their offense, and I think they'll get less attempts at the line in this game since they are on the road. New Mexico is slower on offense than they were a year ago by a lot. Both teams lost their top offensive player from last year. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-10-16 | Arizona State v. San Diego State OVER 137.5 | 74-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs are still playing relatively slow. There are a couple things different about this team so far this year though. One- they are much weaker on the defensive end. They were 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 51st this year. Second- they are much more efficient on the offensive end. They were 170th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 90th in offensive efficiency this year. Arizona State will push the tempo here. The Sun Devils have played only one game that finished lower than 145 points so far this year. That was a 68-60 loss to Davidson where both teams shot the ball horribly. Arizona State has multiple good three point shooters, and that should help them against San Diego State. This number has gotten too low. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-10-16 | NC-Wilmington v. St Bonaventure OVER 152.5 | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks went away from running and gunning in the early season, but recent games suggest they are back to playing really fast again. UNC Wilmington has scored at least 97 points in each of their last three games, and the tempo in those games has been on average more than 10 possessions higher than their tempo through their first five games. They face a St. Bonaventure team who is attempting to play faster this year. They are 71st in the nation in tempo. So far, it has worked out nicely. The Bonnies are 6-2 with some pretty decent wins. They have scored a minimum of 81 points in each of their last five games. Another key point here is that both teams do a lot of fouling. These teams both rank in the top 1/4 of teams in the country in fouling, and that should lead to a bunch of time at the charity stripe in this game. I think this game should get close to 160. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-10-16 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa OVER 159.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have only had one game fall below this posted total all year. Oklahoma State ranks in the top five in the country in terms of tempo. Oklahoma State has only failed to score 90 points in a game twice so far this year. Tulsa has some major issues handling pressure, and that is exactly what they'll get all game from Oklahoma State all game in this one. Oklahoma State forces the 5th most turnovers of any team in the country. The Cowboys should force a bunch here, and they'll turn them into transition opportunities. I believe Oklahoma State is the better team here, and I think they'll get the lead and play this game at their pace. Tulsa will have to play quickly to try to catch up. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-10-16 | Army v. Navy UNDER 52.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 120 h 37 m | Show |
*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play CRUSHER* These two teams know each other really well. They run exactly the same offense. While these running offenses are among the best in the country, they generally benefit from facing a defense that isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That won't be the case here. These defenses will be much better against that option look. In the past ten years, every single meeting between these two teams has gone under the posted total. The highest scoring game during that period was 48 points. In the last four years, the final total has been 30, 41, 27, and 38 points. Navy is without their top two quarterbacks for this game. Will Worth got hurt last game and now Navy is really short-handed here. The Midshipmen offense has been very good this year, but this is a big setback. Army's offense has had 235 yards or less in two of the last three meetings with Navy. Dating back 10 years, Navy has only topped 400 yards once in this series. Army has only topped 400 yards of offense once as well. This line is posted too high. Look for a bunch of running and the clock ticking away. I think this line should be in the low to mid 40's. Take the under big. *Note- The line has dropped here throughout the week. My ratings dependent on the line are as follows: a 5 star play at 51 or higher. a 4 star play at 48 or higher, and a 3 star play at 45 or higher. Thank you!* |
|||||||
12-10-16 | Cleveland State v. Purdue OVER 136.5 | 53-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* IN 5 of Purdue's 9 games so far this year, they have scored 85 points or more. Purdue is playing much quicker than they did a year ago. They rank about 100 spots faster in tempo overall in the country than they did a year ago. Purdue faces a really weak defense here in Cleveland State. The Vikings are terrible on the defensive glass, and Purdue will get a ton of second chance points in this game. Cleveland State coach Gary Waters is telling his team to pick up the tempo this year. They are playing about 3 possessions per game faster than a year ago. Demonte Flanigan is arguably Cleveland State's best offensive player. He missed the team's first few games, but is back and playing well. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-10-16 | Temple v. DePaul UNDER 150.5 | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA BB Early Start TOP Total* The Temple Owls and DePaul Blue Demons both prefer a slow tempo. Temple ranks 225th in tempo so far on the year, and DePaul ranks 251st out of 351 teams. I see no reason to believe that either team will push the pace in this one either. There are several reasons other than just tempo that I think this is a great bet. First, this game starts at 11:30 am. It doesn't always work this way, but in the long run there is no doubt that an abnormally early game is a positive for points. It's a good thing for unders. DePaul is in Illinois and on central time, so on their body clocks it will be a 10:30 start time. Another big positive for the under here is this game is played at a neutral site. It is actually at American Airlines Arena in Miami (where the Heat play). This is obviously a big arena and these teams aren't accustomed to playing there. Again, this is a great thing for the under. It's hard to jump onto a new floor with shooting backdrops you aren't accustomed to, and play in front of a very small crowd. I think this game will be more sloppy than the average game, and this line is at least 10 points off from reality. Take the under big. |
|||||||
12-08-16 | Texas-Arlington v. St. Mary's UNDER 142 | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels definitely have an efficient offense, but it is hard for them to get to a total this high with the tempo they play at. St. Mary's is 350th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the nation. They are using up more than 20 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. UT Arlington has slowed down their pace this year. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted for that yet. UT Arlington was previously one of the fastest teams in the country, but so far this year they are playing at only an average tempo. UT Arlington is better on defense than most teams St. Mary's has gone up against so far this year. St. Mary's is likely too good for UT Arlington, and that's a good thing for the under. St. Mary's is one of the best teams you will find in the country at "taking the air out of the ball." The Gaels should be able to do that here and keep this one under the total. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-08-16 | Pacific v. Massachusetts OVER 141 | 48-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen have played five straight games that finished under this posted total. I think that has set us up for some great value here. There was an early steam move on the under here, and I'm glad to take the lower price. UMass has played five straight teams that look to slow down the tempo. This time they are up against a Pacific team that wants to run as well. That's very important here. Pacific ranks 127th in tempo overall. That is much faster than any of UMass' last five opponents. UMass ranks 9th in the country in overall pace, and they will continue to push the issue here. Another important point is the rate at which both teams foul. UMass and Pacific both rank among the top 20 teams in the country in most fouls committed. There should be a bunch of trips to the charity stripe in this one. UMass thrives on using full court pressure to get steals and quick baskets. Pacific is expected to be without their point guard in this game. Look for plenty of easy baskets and a lot of time spent in the bonus. I think this one gets to about 150 or higher. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-07-16 | Idaho v. Washington State OVER 131 | Top | 48-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The line here has gotten so low that I have to make a big play on the over. Idaho is definitely a team that struggles to score, but here they are up against the fastest paced team they have played yet this year. Washington State isn't likely to let Idaho turn this into a 55-50 type game. Washington State has only played two games all year that finished at less than 150 points! Their last game against New Orleans was the slowest tempo the team has played at this year, and Coach Ernie Kent wasn't happy about it either. They should be pushing the tempo in this one. Idaho is pretty good defensively, but they are very foul happy. That helps this one a lot since Washington State is great at getting to the line. Both teams rank in the top 100 in the nation in most free throw attempts so far this year. With one team pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line, I like this over quite a bit at this low of a price. Take the over big. |
|||||||
12-07-16 | Wright State v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 150 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders are certainly playing faster this year, but this price is too high for me to pass up taking the under. Loyola Chicago has a long history of slowing the tempo down and winning with strong defense. Loyola doesn't attack the basket, rather they settle for a lot of long range shots. On the other side, Wright State is very dependent on getting to the foul line. The Raiders aren't very good from the floor, but they are in the top 25 at getting to the free throw line. Loyola Chicago doesn't foul much at all, and with this game at Loyola I think Wright State will get fewer free throws than they have in most games this year. I think this game ends at about 140 points. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-07-16 | George Washington v. Temple UNDER 147 | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls typically play at a relatively slow pace under Fran Dunphy. In the last couple years, this is a team that has been much more efficient on the defensive end than the offensive end. They are a little better on offense this year, but I still consider Temple a defense first team. George Washington and Temple both come in solidly in the bottom half of college basketball in terms of tempo. There isn't any reason to expect either team to get out in transition all that much in this game. Instead, it should be played in the halfcourt, where both defenses are very good. Both of these teams rank in the top 60 in the country in least fouls committed. That's definitely a good thing for the under. Both of these teams have slowed their pace down of late, and I like that trend. The recency of both teams allows me to project this one at about 67 possessions. At that pace, it would take some very good shooting numbers to send this one past the total. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-06-16 | Utah Valley v. Utah OVER 162 | 80-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes want to run more this year. They rank 97th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of tempo. Utah Valley ranks 4th in the country in tempo, so they are certainly going to try to run in this one. I think we will see a track meet here. Utah Valley is great from three point range. The Wolverines shoot almost 39% from 3. The one weakness of the Utah defense is defending beyond the arc. I think Utah Valley hurts them a lot from long range tonight. On the other side, Utah Valley doesn't have nearly enough size on the interior. Utah is a great offensive rebounding team, and I expect a bunch of second chance opportunities for them in this game. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-06-16 | St Bonaventure v. Hofstra OVER 155 | 81-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have made it a goal to play much faster this year. The Bonnies are 89th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. Hofstra has always been a team that prefers to run under Coach Joe Mihalich. In their last 3 games, Hofstra has scored 89, 88, and 88 points. They should be able to take advantage of a St. Bonaventure defense that gives up a lot of second chance points and fouls a lot as well. Hofstra makes a living at the line, and I expect a lot of points from the line from them here. St. Bonaventure has scored 102, 89, 81 and 90 points in their last four games. This is a team that should be high scoring all year long. With tempo and a lot of trips to the line, I see this line a few points too low. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-04-16 | Bills v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
*5 Star NFL TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Oakland Raiders are certainly much improved, but it isn't because they have a good defense. Oakland is actually dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. That's a major problem, and I think the Bills can take advantage. Buffalo has a really good running game with McCoy, and the Raiders are the third worst team in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bills running game should bust some big plays here. Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of completing some deep balls as well, and Oakland's secondary is allowing the most yards per completion (12.53) of any team in the NFL. Buffalo is first in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at a whopping 5.29 (second is only 4.81). Oakland is fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game. These are big play offenses, and I see this total being a few points too low. The over is 6-1 in the Bills last 7. The over is 18-6-2 in the Raiders last 26 home games. Take the over big. |
|||||||
12-03-16 | Savannah State v. Oregon OVER 162.5 | 59-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* This is a really interesting game to handicap. Savannah State decided before the season to change their style to try to play at the single fastest tempo of any team in the country. They are doing it so far. They are shooting in an average of only 12 seconds each time they get the ball. That is lightning quick. What has that meant for their scores? Savannah State hasn't played a game all season that has finished below 169 points. They have played three games that have had 200 points or more total. Oregon should be able to put up 100 points here without even trying to run up the score. The Ducks have been slowed down tempo wise by multiple teams this year, and here is their chance to go back to their normal quick paced ways. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-03-16 | Wright State v. Penn State OVER 148 | 50-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Penn State Nittany Lions have decided to play at a quicker tempo this year. Penn State ranked 311th in the speed at which they put up a shot on average last year. So far this year, they rank 16th in the country. That's a huge difference. They host a Wright State team coached by Scott Nagy, and he is pushing his team to play fast and get to the rim this year. Wright State is 51st in the nation (out of 351 teams) in overall pace. The Raiders are getting to the line 15th most in the country. This Raiders offense is shooting an impressive 40% from long range as well. Six of Wright State's eight games so far this year have gone over this total, and most of them haven't been very close. I think we see an uptempo game here. I have this one getting to the mid 150's. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-03-16 | Buffalo v. St Bonaventure OVER 148 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are going to play fast this year. This is a team that has a lot of good outside shooters. The Bonnies have scored 81 points or more in four of their six games this year. They'll be up against a Buffalo team that ranks 61st in overall tempo. St. Bonaventure is 83rd in overall tempo. This game should be played at a quick pace. Buffalo has turnover problems on offense, and I expect St. Bonnie to pick up some full court pressure here to create easy baskets. Both of these teams are fouling a lot this year, and a lot of trips to the free throw line should be expected in this one. I think this one is several points too low. Take the over. |
|||||||
12-03-16 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Chattanooga UNDER 137 | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The LA Monroe Warhawks are always a team that likes to slow the game down. Chattanooga has been the same way the last couple years. So far this year, Chattanooga has played several teams that speed up the game and that has skewed their totals higher. When you play Tennessee and North Carolina, that will make your stats a little off. LA Monroe won't be pushing the pace here, and I don't think LA Monroe will be able to score very much here against a good defensive team that has a lot more size than they do. My number for this game was 131 points. Look for Chattanooga to grab an early lead and win a game that stays under the posted total. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-03-16 | St. Joe's v. Villanova OVER 130 | Top | 57-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Villanova Wildcats have a really efficient offense. This team was ridiculously efficient in the NCAA Tournament last year, and that won them the title. Their effective field goal percentage is even a little bit better so far this year. Villanova can pile up the points per possession. They average almost 1.2 points per possession. St. Joe's is way down from a year ago, and I think Villanova will put up a pretty big number here. The Hawks are down most on the defensive end. Martelli's St. Joe's team is playing at a slightly quicker pace than the average team so far this year. Villanova's defensive efficiency is down just a bit from last year as well. This kind of total is just too low with a Villanova offense involved and against a team that won't try to stall the entire game. I had this totaled at 137 points. Take the over big. |
|||||||
12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 64 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 16 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen play at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Navy ranks 128th in tempo out of 128 teams. How about Temple? They rank 124th out of 128 teams in the nation in tempo. Anytime you get two teams together that play that slowly and you get a total this high, you have to look under. There are several other key factors here. First, the strength of the Temple defense is their ability to stop the run. In Temple's last four games, they haven't allowed more than 3.58 yards per carry in any of those games. Another benefit for Temple is that they played two option teams this year: Army and Tulane. That helps the prep for the triple option this week. Navy runs the ball on 81.43% of their plays. Temple runs the ball on 58.68% of their plays. These are two teams who move slowly and run the ball consistently. That means a lot of running clock in this game. I understand why the total is high. Navy has scored 66 and 75 points in their last two games. Still, Navy's recent success on offense comes against defenses much weaker than the Temple defense. I think in this case, there is a recency bias that allows the under to have solid value. Take the under big here. |
|||||||
12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 56.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Pac 12 Championship CASH* The Washington Huskies and Colorado Buffaloes battle for the Pac 12 crown on Friday night in Santa Clara. There are multiple important factors that make me like the under in this one. First, both of these defenses are very strong. Colorado and Washington are tied for 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed this year. They both allow only 4.67 yards per play. Washington is a top 20 defense against both the pass and the run. Colorado is a top three defense in the country against the pass, while they are middle of the pack against the run. This works out well in the head to head, because Jake Browning has been throwing it around very well of late, but these Colorado DB's are excellent. I think they'll give Washington's receivers a lot more trouble than they have had most weeks this year. Utah was 13/40 passing with 1 TD and 2 INT's last week against this Colorado secondary. On the other side, Colorado's offense plays fast, but they have been slowed down several times this year. They scored only 20 in a win against a bad UCLA team. They put up only 10 against Stanford and 17 against USC. Another important factor here is the location of this game. It is played in Santa Clara, where the San Francisco 49ers play their home games. This stadium is known for its high grass, and that has been great for unders in the NFL. The under is 22-6 in the 49ers last 28 home games here. These teams are accustomed to playing on the turf, and that means we have less favorable scoring conditions here than normal. I think we see both defenses play well here. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-02-16 | Ohio v. Western Michigan UNDER 59.5 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MAC MONEYMAKER Total* The Western Michigan Broncos rank in the bottom 25 in the country in tempo. Ohio ranks in the bottom 50 teams in the country in tempo. So we start with two teams that like to take their time, which is certainly a good thing for the under. Ohio's Frank Solich knows Ohio doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Western Michigan in a shootout, and I'm very confident he'll try to keep the ball away from Western Michigan's offense with a slow and steady approach in the running game. Look for Ohio to take a lot of time off the clock between plays, and keep it on the ground. Western Michigan is running the ball on more than 62% of their plays so far this year. That's a good thing when you consider Ohio ranks 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed at only 3.00 per carry. The Bobcats will give up yards of course, but they are better equipped to slow Western Michigan's running game down than most teams the Broncos have faced this year. In a game with a lot on the line, things usually tighten up a little bit. The Bobcats would love to spoil the party. The Broncos need a win to likely go to a New Year's Day bowl game. Look for a lot of long slow drives that eat up the clock. Take the under here. |