*3 Star Play Under* The Long Island University Sharks do play at a quick tempo. They have historically played quicker than they are this year though. LIU ranks 61st in tempo compared to a year ago when they were 9th. This is a team that relies heavily on the catch and shoot 3 point jumper. The biggest strength of this Mt. St. Mary's defense is against that offensive attack. In fact, they are 39th in the country according to Shot Quality in those situations. 

Mt. St. Mary's plays at a very slow pace. They have been able to control the pace of the game the last four times they have matched up against LIU. Two years ago both of their matchups finished at 130 points in regulation. Last year, the two games finished at 126 and 110 points. 

Mt. St. Mary's and LIU are both poor when it comes to efficiency on offense. LIU tries to score in transition, but they are bottom 50 in transition offensive efficiency. Mt. St. Mary's settles for too many midrange jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Binghamton and Albany have had major problems with COVID 19 in recent weeks. Both of their coaches said they will be down multiple players for this game. 

Albany is an excellent defensive team. The Great Danes have constantly played low scoring contests. In fact, their last six games have finished at 124 points or less. The Great Danes are good at preventing easy baskets near the rim, and Binghamton often tries for those easy looks at the rim.

Binghamton ranks 314th in the nation in tempo. They struggle with wasted possessions due to turnovers on offense as well. They sometimes struggle on the defensive glass, but Albany is a weak offensive rebounding team.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats were blown out at Creighton a few weeks ago. Creighton won 79-59. Creighton shot 65% from 2 point range in that game. According to the website Shot Quality, based on the quality of shots they took the Creighton Blue Jays should have scored only 60 points in that game. Creighton made a bunch of tough jump shots in that game.

Villanova ranks 346th in tempo in college basketball this year. The Wildcats have seen 5 of their last 8 games finish with a total of 127 points or less. Their extremely slow tempo has led to some very low scoring games.

Creighton put up just 58 points in regulation against a very fast paced Marquette team in their last game. The Blue Jays don't have the great long range shooters that they have had in recent seasons. 

Look for Villanova to get control of this game and slow the pace down to a crawl. I think they get revenge and this game stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs are elite at controlling the tempo of a game. Butler ranks 346th in the nation in overall tempo. They haven't played a game all season with a pace of higher than 69 possessions. Their defense is also quite a bit better than it was a year ago. They rebound well on defense and don't foul very often.

Seton Hall is playing fast. The Pirates are just a decent offensive team, but they are tremendous on the defensive end. Seton Hall ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

These two teams played twice last year. The final scores were 68-60 and 61-52. The Bulldogs were able to slow the pace down in both of those games.

Butler takes a bunch of 3 pointers, but Seton Hall ranks 9th in the country in 3 point percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles started the season out playing extremely fast. They have gradually slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Stan Heath is their new head coach. Over the course of his career his teams have generally played slower than the average team. It appears this team is backing off on the pace a bit of late. 

Western Michigan ranks 342nd in average possession length out of 358 teams in the country. The Broncos absolutely want to slow the game down. Western Michigan isn't good on defense, but their defensive stats are a bit skewed this year. They have faced some amazing offenses. They have had to face Iowa, Michigan State, Toledo, and Notre Dame. 

Eastern Michigan ranks in the 2nd percentile in the country according to Shot Quality when it comes to shot selection. Western Michigan ranks in the 16th percentile in the country in shot selection. These two teams settle for really poor shots. Both also rank as worse than the normal team when it comes to taking care of the basketball. There should be plenty of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are a completely different team this year under Trent Johnson. Johnson's coaching style is a total flip from what this team has been under Mark Gottfried. No longer is this team running and gunning and not worrying about defense. They are now one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and defense is their primary focus. 

CS Northridge is atrocious on the offensive end. The Matadors have played 9 games against Division I teams and they have scored 54 points or less in six of those nine contests. 

UC San Diego is a better offensive team, but they have relied pretty heavily on both getting to the line and shooting it from long range. CS Northridge doesn't foul very much on average, and the team has been best at defending long range jumpers.

CS Northridge has a major weakness on the defensive glass, but UC San Diego has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country (out of 358) in offensive rebounding percentage last year and this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners have a new coach this year and Porter Moser is well known for his defensive minded teams. Oklahoma has held three of its last four opponents to 54 points or less in regulation.

Oklahoma started the season out playing fast paced basketball, but they have slowed their tempo down of late. I would expect some further slowing of their average pace through the season.

Kansas State is always a defensive-minded team under Bruce Weber. Weber's teams often lack imagination in their offensive sets, but they are always working hard and making the opposition take tough shots.

Kansas State has seen 4 of their last 6 games finish at 127 points or lower.

Both teams are excellent on the defensive boards, and neither team gets to the line all that much either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers and Fordham Rams have both been on an extended absence due to COVID 19 issues. La Salle hasn't played since December 18. Fordham hasn't played since all the way back to December 12. Last year we saw these absences lead to some sloppy low scoring games on average in their first game back.

Fordham is accustomed to a bunch of sloppy and low scoring contests. Fordham is very good at defending beyond the arc, and La Salle likes to shoot a lot of long range jumpers. La Salle will then go after offensive rebounds hard, but Fordham is a very good defensive rebounding team as well. The Rams offense is a bit better this year, but they are still subpar and can go through scoring droughts.

La Salle's offensive numbers aren't very good so far this year, and they have faced the second easiest slate of defenses (357th out of 358th) in the country. Fordham has faced the 356th toughest slate of defenses in the country. Essentially, these two teams have put up poor numbers against terrible defenses. 

Both of these two teams are better on defense than they are on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles rank 307th in average possession length, so they prefer a very slow pace on the offensive end. Eastern Illinois ranks 310th in average possession length as well. The tempo here should be very slow throughout.

Eastern Illinois hasn't scored more than 62 points in a game against a Division I opponent all season. Eastern Illinois has been held to 56 points or less in 9 of their 11 games against Division I opponents. They have been held to 45 points or less in 4 of those games. This is a really bad offense.

Morehead State has an elite shot blocker in Broome and he should keep Eastern Illinois out of the paint here.

Morehead State and Eastern Illinois both turn the ball over a bunch on offense, and those wasted possessions are great for the under. Both these teams don't to the line much, and both defenses are great at defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Florida Bulls have a way of making every game extremely ugly. That isn't meant as a bad thing necessarily. USF has won a lot of close games with their defensive style and very slow pace. They aren't likely to win this game, but their defense should at least slow BYU down.

BYU has faced the 15th best slate of offenses in the country this year. They still have impressive defensive numbers. They don't allow second chance opportunities much at all, which is crucial against a team like USF that relies heavily on offensive rebounds.

USF held Auburn to 58 points in an ugly game earlier this year. I don't think they'll hold BYU to that kind of total, but they should make things uncomfortable at least at times. The USF offense has been a mess all year, and I don't see them stringing together many good possessions.

A neutral court is a good thing for the under too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I don't like taking overs that are this high, but I think this one is a good value. South Dakota State's offense is an absolute juggernaut, especially on their home floor. 

South Dakota State has scored 91 points or more five times already this year. The Jackrabbits have the perfect mix of inside scoring presence and long range shooters from the perimeter. 

Oral Roberts is a bad defensive team. The Golden Eagles are 249th in defensive efficiency in the country.

On the other side, Max Abmas and this Oral Roberts offense are excellent. Oral Roberts excels from 3 point range, and South Dakota State has struggled in a big way defending beyond the arc the last couple seasons.

Last year these two teams met twice. The final scores were 103-86 and 95-80. It was no fluke. These two offenses are excellent.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars defense has been excellent this year. Kyle Smith is a quality coach and he has this team really defending well. 

Washington State ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars have improved a lot in transition defense, and they are a very good defensive rebounding team since Smith has taken over.

Boise State is a top 20 defensive rebounding team. The Broncos are good at both forcing turnovers and defending the paint, which is a really nice combination for a defense. 

These offenses are capable, but both go through scoring droughts and can be inefficient for long stretches. 

This is played at a neutral site and these games are a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers have been excellent at pushing the pace the last couple seasons. Georgia State won a 4 overtime game against Georgia Tech last year. That game was high scoring all the way and was played to a very quick tempo.

Georgia State has a great scorer in Kane Williams. Williams is a tough matchup for Georgia Tech. The Panthers should get open looks from 3 against a questionable three point defense from the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech has an excellent shooter in Devoe. He is over 50% from 3 point range on the season thus far. Georgia State is one of the worst in the country at defending beyond the arc. I think that is a problem here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Fran McCaffrey's Iowa Hawkeyes have absolutely loved to crush weaker opponents and push the pace all the way to the finish. This has happened year after year with McCaffrey in Iowa City.

Iowa has already 106 points or more three times this year. Though I'm not predicting they'll get to that number here, I do think they'll put up a big number. SE Louisiana has no answer at all for Keegan Murray, Pat McCaffrey, and Jordan Bohannon. 

Iowa hasn't scored less than 85 points in a single home game all year. They have scored 106 or more in half of their home games. 

SE Louisiana prefers to play quickly and they should get enough possessions in this game to get us enough points to get past the posted total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* IUPUI is the worst offense in the country right now. They are dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. IUPUI hasn't topped 59 points in a game against a Division I opponent all year. They haven't topped 61 points against anyone. IUPUI has been held to 47 points or less in 6 of their 9 Division I matchups. Ouch.

Morehead State is an above average defense. The Eagles have struggled so far this year defending the 3 point line, but in the past they have been good there. I don't believe IUPUI is the team to make them pay in that area anyways.

Morehead State likes to play slowly and IUPUI absolutely has to play stall ball at this point.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have played ten games against Division I opponents this year. Eastern Illinois has yet to score more than 62 points in any of those games. Even worse, they have only scored more than 56 points in two of their contests. This is a dreadful Eastern Illinois offense. They rank 355th out of 358 offenses in the country in offensive efficiency. Eastern Illinois is terrible offensively, and they play very slowly as well. Despite being behind nearly all the time, this team ranks 309th in average possession length.

Ball State plays quickly and they have had quite a few high scoring games. The Cardinals should win this game comfortably. Ball State has played a lot of fast paced good offenses this year. Eastern Illinois is far from that. I think the fact that Ball State has played so many very good offenses (Xavier, Weber State, UMass, etc) inflates this total. Ball State has been an above average defense in each of the last three years. I think their defensive numbers will improve as we move forward.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have a really weak offense. Their best offense is getting to the free throw line. Outside of that, they really have no strength as an offense. They are a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but Jacksonville is 10th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Jacksonville is well coached by Jordan Mincy and he has this team focusing on defense. They gave up just 55 points against a good Minnesota team. They also allowed only 63 points against a fast paced UCF team. 

Pitt has already played 5 games this year that stayed under this very low total. That includes their last game over ultra fast paced St. John's where Pitt controlled the pace.

Both teams want to play slowly here, and I see this being a major grinder.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are an excellent defensive team every single year under Russell Turner. If you don't work hard on the defensive end of the floor, you don't play for Turner. UC Irvine is 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense this season. Their "free throw defense" has been this year, which would suggest that they are actually due for positive regression in that area. 

Duquesne tries to get inside and finish in the mid range area and post up more than the average team. UC Irvine is a much taller team than them and the Anteaters should make their shots difficult.

UC Irvine goes through long scoring droughts on offense and they shoot far too many mid range tough jump shots.

This is played on a neutral court which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The CS Northridge Matadors have completely changed their style of play under Trent Johnson. They were a run and gun team for many years, but Johnson has them slowing the pace down in a big way and trying to win low scoring contests. 

CS Northridge has played six straight games that finished regulation with 122 points or less. This is a really low scoring team that has improved on defense as well.

Portland State is a terrible offensive team. The Vikings prefer to play somewhat fast, but they are one of the worst offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. Portland State has played an easy schedule of defenses so far this year, and they still have shot just 23% from 3 point range and are averaging only 0.92 points per possession.

This should be a hard fought game where both teams take a lot of tough shots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers were amazing defensively the past few years. They were bad on the defensive end the past few years. The team couldn't be more different this year. LSU is now only a little above average on the offensive end. They are now elite on the defensive end. The Tigers are rated #1 in effective field goal percentage defense and #2 in the country in defensive efficiency.

It is their length all over the floor and multiple shot blockers patrolling the paint that makes LSU such a good defensive team this year. Will Wade has recruited long post players, and it is working out. LSU hasn't played a single game that finished with more than 143 points this year.

LA Tech is an above average team and they are pretty good on defense as well. Kenneth Lofton is excellent, but he'll likely be at least slowed down by LSU's length in the frontcourt.

This game is played on a neutral floor which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both St. Peter's and Stony Brook have looked much better on the offensive end this year than they did last season. 

Stony Brook is 134th in effective field goal percentage offense this year after being just below #300 last year. The Seawolves got a couple key transfers in Anthony Roberts and Jahlil Jenkins. Both of those guys are solid outside shooters, and Stony Brook has been good from 3 point range this season.

St. Peter's attacks the rim in a big way. They get to the line a lot, and Stony Brook has been bad at defending the paint this year. 

Stony Brook and St. Peter's are both playing about 3 possessions per game faster than they did a year ago.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars are very well coached by Kyle Smith. Washington State is coming off a loss to South Dakota State. South Dakota State is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They'll go up against another quality team here in New Mexico State. New Mexico State is a team that plays much slower though, and the Aggies depend on defense.

New Mexico State is 284th in average possession length in the country. Washington State is 242nd in average possession length. This game should be played at a pretty slow tempo.

Washington State's defense has faced some really tough offenses already this year. The Cougars defense is better than it looks on paper. Washington State hasn't faced many good defenses though, and I think their offensive numbers will regress in the coming weeks.

These two teams are good on the defensive boards and I think open looks will be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Nebraska Omaha ranked in the top ten in pace in the country in 2016 and 2017. The team has been fairly quick in recent seasons, but they have slowed down a bit. Coach Derrin Henson said before the year that he has the depth he needs to run at a blistering pace this year again. 

Omaha started the year playing a bit slower than I expected, but they were playing some very good defenses. The Mavericks have played four straight games to 70 possessions or quicker. Omaha ranks as a bottom ten defense in the country. This Mavericks team gives up points in bunches.

UNLV has played quicker of late as well. Kevin Kruger does want the Rebels to get out in transition more than they have in recent years. UNLV has played two of their last three games to 72 possessions and 71 possessions. The Rebels have faced the 54th toughest schedule of defenses this year. This is the worst defense they have faced all season. 

Look for a pretty quick pace here. The total is a little too low given the tempo I expect here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles take a lot of mid range jumpers that are low quality shots. Southern Miss has been a trainwreck on offense so far this year. How bad have they been? They have scored 56 points or less in 5 of their 8 games against Division I competition so far this season. 

Jacksonville has a new coach in Jordan Mincy and the team is built around defense. The Dolphins are showing it already. Jacksonville has allowed 56 points or less in 4 of their first 6 games against Division I teams. That includes allowing only 55 points against a good Minnesota team.

The tempo here should be very slow. Jacksonville ranks 345th in average possession length and they have been great at controlling the pace of the game. 

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass, so I don't expect many second chance points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones defense has been amazing this year. They just held the Iowa Hawkeyes to 53 points in their last game. The Hawkeyes offense is one of the best in the country. Iowa State ranks 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Jackson State is 336th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers have played two top 50 teams in the country so far this year (Indiana and Illinois). They scored 35 points and 47 points in those two games. It wouldn't be a surprise if they struggle to get past 50 points in this one.

Iowa State has had some trouble taking care of the basketball, and Jackson State is a scrappy defense that forces the opposition to turn it over a lot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are a better scoring team than they were the last couple seasons, but this is still a bad offense. They went from being the worst offense in the country to being just bad on offense. Fordham has played the 5th easiest slate of defenses this year, so their offensive numbers look a little better than they should.

Miami's weakness defensively is giving up too many three point shots. Fordham shot 27% from 3 last year, and they are only at 30.7% from beyond the arc so far this season. The Rams aren't likely to be able to take advantage of the Miami weakness.

This game is an early tipoff on a neutral court. Neutral courts are a positive for unders on the whole.

Fordham puts in effort on defense and they will slow the game down a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters take on the Fresno State Bulldogs today. Both of these teams are tremendous on the defensive end. One thing I always look for with a low under is two teams who can rebound well defensively. We don't want second chance points for offenses in a low total. Both of these two teams rank in the top 25 in the nation in defensive rebounding. They are also both better than average at defending without fouling.

UC Irvine ranks 54th in defensive efficiency. Fresno State ranks 71st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams are excellent at protecting the rim. While both of these offenses like to attack the paint, they should find it difficult to score in the paint here.

The pace should be very slow. UC Irvine is 300th in tempo in the country. Fresno State is 344th. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play* Both TCU and Texas A&M are defense oriented teams. TCU always plays slowly with Dixon as their head coach. TCU also ranks 7th in least fouls committed in the country. The Horned Frogs have played several very fast paced opponents of late (Pepperdine, Oral Roberts, Santa Clara) which has skewed their games higher scoring than they usually would be.

Texas A&M has struggled badly on offense under Buzz Williams, but they will always compete on the defensive end. The Aggies excel at defending the paint. That's key because TCU likes to attack the basket.

This one is played at Toyota Center which is known as an under venue because it is so spacious. 

Two defensive teams who play slowly in a hotly contested game on a neutral floor.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* LSU has what might be the most improved defense in the country. The Tigers rank first in the country in steal percentage on defense. They rank 4th in the country in block percentage defensively. Tari Eason and Efton Reid are elite shot blockers down low for the Tigers. 

Georgia Tech has been a good defense on a yearly basis under Josh Pastner. Georgia Tech has shot really well from three point range so far this year, but they are due for regression in that area. The Yellow Jackets prefer to play slowly as well.

This game is on a neutral court which is also a bonus for the under.

The LSU Tigers have played six straight games that have finished under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners and Sam Houston State Bearkats meet at Toyota Center in Houston on Saturday. This is a neutral court game. The under is 28-22 in college basketball games played at Toyota Center.

Neutral court unders have been a strong angle in the past decade. Sam Houston State's defensive numbers are only mediocre, but they have played the #13 toughest slate of offenses this year. The Bearkats were good defensively last year, and they should be solid again this year.

UTSA has been a high scoring team in recent years, but the Roadrunners no longer have Keaton Wallace and Jhivan Jackson who were their big scorers. 

I would expect some poor shooting numbers in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are awful offensively. In 4 of their 8 games against Division I opponents they have scored 46 points or less. They have yet to score more than 62 points against a D I opponent this year.

Butler is 55th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs rank 346th in tempo. They will slow things down and make it very tough for Eastern Illinois to score. Butler has shown the willingness to win low scoring battles against lesser opponents like IUPUI and even Saginaw Valley State.

Eastern Illinois plays very slowly as well. They defend the 3 point shot well and could slow Butler down at least for a while.

I had this total several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. John's Red Storm have been in transition on 25% of their offensive possessions this year. That's 4th highest in the country. They'll press and try to get in transition as much as possible. Posh Alexander is very underrated and I think he can have a big game here against this Monmouth team.

Monmouth loves to run and gun under King Rice as well. The Hawks have played a lot of teams who play slowly this year and that has some of their pace stats this year looking a bit skewed. They are the underdog here, and if they want to win they are likely going to have to score quite a few points. They'll look to attack the glass.

Monmouth is shooting 81.5% from the free throw line. The Hawks have multiple guards who make a living at the line. 

St. John's is likely to get quite a few free throws because Monmouth has been among the top 50 in the country in fouls committed the last two years. St. John's is an above average team from the line as well.

Fast paced all the way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions were 92nd fastest in the country in average possession length last year. They rank 352nd so far this year. Penn State has played against the 267th toughest slate of defenses (very easy schedule), while they have faced some good offenses. They have actually faced the 67th toughest slate of offenses. The Nittany Lions defense is likely better than their overall numbers appear. The offense is likely a bit worse.

Wagner prefers to play at a slow pace too. The Seahawks struggled badly on offense against Seton Hall (just 0.83 points per possession). They won a 58-44 decision over VCU. 

Penn State should keep the pace slow and win with their defense. Wagner is often reliant on offensive rebounds, but Penn State is an elite defensive rebounding team.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs are going to always want to push the pace with Bucky McMillan as their head coach. McMillan wants to use the full court press and create transition opportunities. His teams will attack throughout the game. 

Alabama State's Mo Williams has his team playing very fast as well. The Hornets have already given up more than 90 points three times this year. Their defense isn't good and they put their opponent on the line too often. 

Samford is good at getting second chances on offense. Alabama State is a really bad defensive rebounding team. 

Samford has only played two teams this year who want to run at their pace with them. Those were the Belmont and McNeese State games. Both of those games finished at 158 points. I had this one projected at 155, so I see value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are being coached by Trent Johnson right now and he sure has put his stamp on this team as far as their pace of play. Northridge played very fast the last couple years. Not this year! Northridge is averaging 20.3 seconds per possession on offense. That is 354th fastest out of 358 teams in the country. They are playing at a snail's pace. 

Boise State ranks 48th in the country in defensive efficiency. Boise State does a great job protecting the rim (where Northridge tries to go often), and the Broncos are also great on the defensive glass. 

Boise State is the better team here, but they often struggle on offense. The Broncos really miss Derrick Alston who was their go to guy on offense last year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have been a huge disappointment this year. They have lost at home to UMKC. They were blown out by 21 points at Liberty in their last game. Cuonzo Martin's team has major issues. They are still a good defense. They rank top 20 in the nation in defending shots attacking the rim. Their offense has been reliant on getting to the free throw line. Eastern Illinois ranks 56th in the nation at defending without fouling.

Eastern Illinois is a bad team. The Panthers have major problems scoring. The Panthers have had 7 games against Division I opponents. They have been held to 56 points or less in 5 of those games. Their last five games against Division I opponents have finished with a total of 125 points or less.

Missouri's length on defense should bother Eastern Illinois. Missouri has already shown they are willing to slow it down with opponents who want to stall. They won 54-37 over Northern Illinois. Eastern Illinois plays an extremely slow pace.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers defense will be elite again this year. They ranked 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 3rd so far this year. Rick Barnes does have a lot of weaknesses, but his teams will fight hard on the defensive end.

Texas Tech isn't as good as they were a few years ago on defense, but this is a still a quality defense. The Red Raiders rank 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Texas Tech's offense appears very good on the surface. A closer look shows they have played the single easiest slate of defenses in the nation according to KenPom. They haven't played a defense ranked in the top 75 in the nation all season. They now play a top five defense. 

Tennessee has been a team that goes through long scoring droughts in recent years. I think they'll do the same this year.

This game is at Madison Square Garden. This has been the best under venue any college basketball games are played at. The shooting backdrop is a tough one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and Wichita State Shockers get together for an intrastate rivalry at Intrust Arena. This is a neutral site arena and that is a net positive for the under.

Kansas State runs pick and roll ball screens on offense 28% of the time. The Wildcats are up against a very tough Wichita State defense here. The Shockers have ranked top 15 in the nation defending pick and roll ball screens in two of the last three seasons. 

Wichita State and Kansas State both prefer to play at a slow pace, and both are clearly better on defense than on offense. 

Wichita State has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 122 points or lower. Kansas State has seen 3 of their 6 games finish at 126 points or lower. This is the best defense Kansas State has played yet.

Expect a hard fought contest where open shots are tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The High Point Panthers have been a consistently weak offense under Tubby Smith. They want to slow the game down, and they are likely to be inefficient on the offensive end. 

High Point's defensive numbers this year don't look too impressive, but they have played some great offenses. In fact, according to KenPom they have faced the 13th toughest slate of offenses thus far. 

High Point held both Georgia State and Furman to 59 points in regulation, and those are two pretty good offenses. 

Elon has allowed 44% on 3 point jumpers from opponents this year. I think that regresses to the mean, and High Point is not a good outside shooting team. 

The pace here should be slow from both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play a very unique style of basketball. They use a full court press to slow the game down. It's a zone full court press that makes the opponent make a bunch of passes to get the ball upcourt. 

Merrimack is a really tough matchup. The Warriors won 60-58 at UMass Lowell in their last meeting two years ago. These two teams are pretty similar to what they were that season as well. 

Merrimack's offense is very poor in the halfcourt. The Warriors end up with a lot of bad looks late in the shot clock.

UMass Lowell is reliant on getting to the basket. That is extremely tough to do against the Merrimack zone defense. UMass Lowell has improved defensively and they are forcing turnovers at a high rate.

Both teams should have a lot of wasted possession on offense and tough shots late in the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Craig Smith is a very defensive-minded head coach. His teams at Utah State were elite on defense every year. Utah will fight very hard on the defensive end this season. 

Andy Enfield's teams are underrated on the defensive end. This Trojans team has all sorts of length on the floor at all times and they have been great defensively already this year. 

USC ranks 4th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Utah ranks 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. These are two teams that are much better on the defensive end than the offensive end.

I think open shots will be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have slowed their tempo down in a big way this season. With new coach Micah Shrewsberry at the helm, the Nittany Lions are using an average of 20.4 seconds of the shot clock each possession. That is 352nd out of 358 teams in the country. 

Penn State has been good at dictating the pace of the game. The Nittany Lions slowed their game against LSU down to a crawl, and LSU is a much better team than Miami. 

Miami plays relatively fast (144th in the nation), but the Hurricanes haven't played a team that plays as slowly as Penn State so far this season. Miami has already played some low scoring contests of late as well.

Penn State has faced the 304th ranked defenses on the season so their offensive numbers are likely skewed a bit too positively on the season so far. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMBC Retrievers are playing much faster under first year head coach Jim Ferry. Ferry wants this team to play even faster than they have so far this year. His history shows that the teams he coaches really want to get up the floor quickly.

UMBC has had trouble scoring on the road, but in their home and neutral site games this year they have scored 85, 91, and 98 points. 

Columbia is a weak defensive team. The Lions have faced terrible offenses so far this year and they have still been overwhelmed. UMBC puts up a ton of 3's, so it is important that every single year under Coach Jim Engles Columbia has been below average in 3 point field goal percentage defense. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers have played 5 games this year. Only one of those games have gone over this total in regulation (that one was only 140 points). La Salle has played some very weak defensive teams and still has only topped 67 points in regulation once on the year. They have yet to top 70 points in regulation. This La Salle team is severely lacking offensive options.

Temple is a scrappy team under Aaron McKie. They aren't very good on offense, but they work hard and do play pretty good defense. Temple and La Salle are both teams I view as high turnover teams. They should have quite a few wasted possessions through this game.

This is a rivalry game in Philadelphia and I think the intensity level will be high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs offense has been absolutely dreadful all season long. Why do I want to bet the over in this game? They have played a bunch of games on neutral courts which lowers scoring. They also have played much better defenses than they will be playing in this game.

San Diego State hasn't gone up against a defense worse than 166th in the nation in defensive efficiency. All but one of their opponents has a defensive efficiency rank of #103 or better this year so far. What about Long Beach State's defense? They rank 303rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. San Diego State should see more of their shots drop against this terrible defense.

Long Beach State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo on the offensive end. The 49ers are putting up shots quickly. San Diego State likes to play quickly as well.

This is a very low total for a game that should be played at a quick pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Creighton Blue Jays team isn't very similar to the Creighton teams of the last couple seasons. They lack the long range shooters. The trio of Zegarowski, Mahoney, and Jefferson are all gone for the Blue Jays. 

Creighton also ranks 269th in turnover percentage on offense in the country. They ranked 28th last season. There are a lot more wasted possessions for this team.

The North Dakota State Bison rank 291st in tempo in the country. They'll try to slow this game down to a grind. Creighton has played noticeably slower this year than they did last year as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have had a major pace change under new coach Ben Johnson. They are playing about 1.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago under Richard Pitino. They also ranked 160th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They rank 16th in that same statistic this year. 

Pittsburgh ranks 300th in overall tempo. The Panthers have had virtually no offense all season. How bad has it been? Pitt has scored 63 points or less in 5 of their 6 games this year. That's despite facing teams like The Citadel, UNC Wilmington, and Towson. 

Minnesota is the highest ranked defense Pitt has faced so far this season. Minnesota has played some really weak defenses this year, and I think the Golden Gophers offense will struggle this year without Marcus Carr, Gabe Kalschuer, and some other key contributors from last year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling Tigers have scored 62 points or less in 4 of their 5 games vs. Division I teams this year. They haven't scored more than 74 points in any game all year. 

Norfolk State has played two games on a neutral court so far this year. Both of those games were very low scoring and featured some ugly shooting numbers. Grambling's only game on a neutral floor stayed under the total as well.

The early season neutral court unders have done very well in the long run. This is a neutral court and it is a contest between two teams who have long term not been good long range shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th and 68th quickest in average possession length the last two years. Billy Lange's team has slowed down considerably this year. St. Joe's ranks just 214th quickest in the country so far this year. I think Lange realizes he doesn't have the firepower right now to compete with better teams.

Georgetown has a lot of length and they will make shots in the paint tough to come by. The Hoyas rank 51st in half court defense rank so far this year. St. Joe's has only been in transition on 7% of their offensive possessions on the year. 

This game is being played on a neutral court in Anaheim. This is a unique venue that has a tough backdrop for shooters. Both games stayed under here last night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies aren't a very good offensive team on an annual basis, but they are always good on defense. Montana has shot the ball better than expected this year, and they have been worse on defense than normal. I think that regresses to the mean.

The website Shot Quality analyzes quality of shots taken by each teams and spits out what the score should have been. Montana's last three games have finished 38 points higher in all than they should have been. That has made this total be set pretty high for one of their games.

UC San Diego has been drawing an insane amount of fouls so far this year. No one in the country had a free throw rate as high last year as UC San Diego has this year so far. That should regress to the mean and help lower scoring as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are a completely different team this year under Ben Johnson instead of Richard Pitino. They have slowed their pace down drastically. Minnesota has seen 3 of their 4 games finish regulation with 127 points or less. 

Jacksonville is playing at one of the slowest tempos of any team in the country. They are using up 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. They have a new coach this year as well and they have a new slower tempo. 

The oddsmakers typically need a bit to adjust to the new pace of teams like this.

Jacksonville turns the ball over a bunch which is just wasted possessions. Minnesota doesn't get out in transition much at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have played a bunch of fast paced teams so far this year. Their offensive average length of possession is slightly slower than the average team in the country so far this year. 

The website Shot Quality takes the quality of shots and spits out projected final scores compared to what the actual score was. Western Illinois had a game against DePaul with a final of 84-80, but SQ thinks the final should have been 70-64. Their last game against N Kentucky was also three points higher than it should have been.

Eastern Michigan has been very good defensively against shots from beyond the arc. Western Illinois takes a bunch of three pointers, and I think they'll be contested more in this game than they have been in most other games for Western Illinois.

This is a high total for a game with two teams who have mediocre offenses at best.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a new coach in Tim Miles. Miles is a good coach and I trust him to help this team improve over time. Miles has this team shooting a bunch of long range jumpers early in the season. They have been falling more than expected thus far, but I don't think the 3 point success continues. 

According to the website Shot Quality, the Spartans have outperformed their expected point total regarding the average shot of that quality this year. They have scored 251 points so far this year. According to Shot Quality, they should have scored only 229 points. 

Northern Colorado's defense is a tough matchup for San Jose State. Northern Colorado excels at running opponents off the 3 point line. Coach Smiley has continued the tradition started by Jeff Linder. N Colorado is a top 60 or 70 three point defense every year.

Northern Colorado is a good under team because they don't get many second chance opportunities and they don't give up many offensive rebounds either. 

Both of these teams have faced a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year. Their defensive numbers should improve, while their offensive numbers are inflated.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack are the favorites here, and they want to run and gun. Nevada gave up a whopping 102 points against South Dakota State yesterday. 

Nevada has had at least 143 total points in every game they have played this year, and this line makes very little sense to me. 

George Mason is an above average team in terms of tempo. Nevada is a top 50 team in terms of tempo. The pace will be very quick here. 

I had this total projected at 144 so I see this one as pretty far off.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams just played on Saturday at a neutral site. The final score was 89-87. The tempo in the game was a blazing fast 78 possessions. 

Now, they go to Northern Arizona where the Lumberjacks will be playing on their home court and the total is set this low. 

Northern Arizona is pushing the pace more this year since they have Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Cone. The Lumberjacks have been a bottom 50 defense in the country nearly every single year in recent memory.

UT Rio Grande Valley is slightly better on offense this year, and they are clearly worse defensively. Matt Figgers is a great offensive minded coach.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits and Nevada Wolf Pack meet in a neutral site contest on Monday night. 

Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time.

Both of these teams shoot a lot of long range jumpers. Those long range jumpers can be a bit harder to hit in a neutral site gym.

This is such a high total that I have to back the under. An 81-79 game is under the total.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Tulane Green Wave meet on Monday afternoon in the Bahamas at a neutral site.

Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time.

Tulane plays a lot of zone and uses some full court pressure to actually slow the pace of the game down. 

Drexel and Tulane are both very good in transition defense so easy buckets should be hard to come by here. 

The long trip and a new gym is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies have decided to slow things down this year. They are playing 3.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. It makes sense because this team just wasn't seeing any success. They might as well try something different. 

Denver is playing differently under a new coach as well. He has them focused on defense, something that has been a major weakness in recent seasons for the Pioneers. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in average possession length (so they are among the 75 slowest out of 358 in the country). 

Denver hasn't played a game that finished with more than this total all season including their games against Division II schools. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral court unders early in the season have been great long term (54.9% in the last 15 years). Early tip offs at neutral court sites have been even better in the long haul. This is about as early of a start time as you will ever see in college basketball.

Temple is a solid defensive team that works hard on that end under Coach McKie, but they have no real identity on the offensive end.

Elon is a good defensive rebounding team. Limiting Temple to one shot is key and I think they can do solid in that area. Elon's offense relies too much on questionable mid range jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing two seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. Minnesota has had two very low scoring games in their first three contests. 

Purdue Fort Wayne played a bit slower in their first contest than they did last season. This is a Fort Wayne team that puts up a lot of 3's, but Minnesota's defense is designed to run you off the 3 point line. The Golden Gophers should make it hard on Fort Wayne to get open looks from deep in this game.

This total is several points higher than I believe it should be.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The CS Northridge Matadors have Trent Johnson as their interim coach. His preferred style of play is much different than Mark Gottfried. Gottfried has been a fast paced coach his whole career. Johnson has always been a slow it down type of coach. We are already seeing that in the numbers for this season. CS Northridge is averaging 20.7 seconds per possession on offense this year. Last year they were only using 16.3 seconds per possession. A 4.4 second difference is a huge tempo change.

Eastern Washington has had high scoring contests in their first couple, but they have played two top 50 teams in terms of tempo they are now playing a bottom 50 team in terms of tempo.

Neither of these teams are great defensively, but this is a very high total with one team trying to stall throughout the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams are a high quality team. Colorado State has played three terrible defenses though. The Rams have taken on Oral Roberts (good offense bad defense), Arkansas Pine Bluff, and Peru State. Bradley isn't an elite defense by any means, but the Braves are an above average defense in most years under a defensive minded head coach.

Bradley offensively is a mess right now. This is an offense with no real identity. Elijah Childs and Terry Nolan are gone and they were the go to guys. Colorado State should slow this Bradley offense down.

This is a neutral site game. Early season neutral site games have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Micah Shrewsberry is Penn State's new coach and he already has changed the way the Nittany Lions play in a big way. Penn State has slowed their pace down dramatically. The Nittany Lions are averaging 20.1 seconds per possession. Last year they were averaging only 16.6 seconds per possession. 

Penn State is likely to be playing from the lead here. They are big favorites against a St. Francis team that doesn't have many good shooters from the outside. Penn State should be a good defensive rebounding team this year, so I expect St. Francis to only get one shot in most possessions.

This is a high total for the favorite being such a slow paced team. Penn State only scored 75 points against a bad Youngstown State defense earlier this year. Myreon Jones was a big loss for Penn State from last year's team.

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* For years now Temple has been much better defensively than they are on offense. The Owls always play hard, but they just aren't efficient on offense.

Clemson is an elite team defensively under Brad Brownell. The Tigers have a lot of length that should bother Temple in this one. Clemson also controls the tempo and does a good job keeping the game in the halfcourt.

Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at noon eastern in South Carolina. New Mexico State is a long way from home for this one.

New Mexico State is a tremendous defensive team that works hard to keep the tempo slow. Davidson has had higher scoring games than they should have based on the quality of their shots in those games.

Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens and La Salle Explorers have played two games each and according to Shot Quality, both of these teams have played in games that have been higher scoring than they should have been based on the averages of their quality of shots. 

A good example of a statistic that is screaming for regression is Delaware's 3 point defense. The Blue Hens have allowed opponents to shoot 62.1% from 3 point range. We know that definitely isn't going to continue. 

La Salle has shot 33.6% or lower from 3 point range in the last three seasons. The Explorers have played two teams that have finished regulation with 134 points or lower. 

This should be a game with a tempo right around the average pace in the country. Regression to the mean should mean the under has a good chance.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars have slowed their tempo down quite a bit this year. BYU is 301st in the nation in average possession length this year, and last year they were 157th. 

Oregon typically plays pretty slowly, and they are doing that again this year. Oregon is 321st out of 358 in the nation in terms of pace of play. 

Oregon's defense should be much better this year with Quincy Guerrier in the frontcourt. He's a great shot blocker, but he isn't great on the offensive end. Jacob Young is also a good perimeter defender and he came over from Rutgers.

This game is at Moda Center in Portland rather than being a true home game for Oregon. These different sites are typically helpful for the under.

Both of these teams are good offensively, but the pace should be slow and the defenses are solid.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Seton Hall has decided to play much quicker this year since they are without star big man Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Pirates rank 11th in average possession length in the country in their first two games. They are using only 13.9 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Michigan has sped up their pace a bit this year as well. The Wolverines are 117th in pace on offense out of 358 teams in the country. The Wolverines should get quite a few second chance opportunities in this game because I consider Seton Hall a relatively weak defensive rebounding team.

Seton Hall is allowing opponents to shoot 11% from 3 point range so far this year. Michigan is allowing opponents to shoot 19.6% from 3 point range so far this year. These are likely good perimeter defenses, but not this good! There will be some regression coming.

Signs of defensive regression and a fast pace.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners no longer have Keaton Wallace or Jhivan Jackson in the backcourt. They were the stars for this team for many years. Without these two, UTSA's offense takes a huge hit. Jacob Germany is a key player for the Roadrunners now and he is a solid big man who is a pretty good shot blocker. 

UTSA likely slows their pace down this year without two stars in the backcourt. They no longer have the ideal team to run the floor. UTSA lost to Texas A&M Commerce (?!) on Monday night. They put up only 62 points in that one.

Denver was a new coach in Jeff Wulburn. He took over for Rodney Billups who struggled mightily at Denver. The Denver defense has been atrocious in recent years. Denver is clearly slowing the pace down this year as compared to recent seasons. The Pioneers have also looked better on defense. They held IUPUI to just 47 points yesterday.

This total is quite a bit higher than my projection.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Siena lost a lot from last year's team. The Saints are now without Jalen Pickett and that hurts them a bunch on offense. Manny Camper was a huge loss as well. Now, Siena doesn't really have a go to guy on offense. 

Yale has been good defensively in past seasons and I think they will be pretty good on defense again this year. 

Siena put up just 47 and 63 points against St. Bonnie and Delaware. 

Neither of these teams want to push the pace very much. This is a high total for the tempo and the question marks I have about the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UNLV has played in two very low scoring games already this year. UNLV won 64-58 over Gardner Webb. They then won 55-52 over Cal. 

North Dakota State will finish the year in the bottom 40 teams or so in the country in terms of tempo. The Bison want to play a low scoring game, and they should get their way here.

UNLV has been playing much better defense so far this year under Kruger, but the offense has been stagnant to put it lightly.

Neither team fouls much or gets to the line often so barring a ref show this should be a pretty clean game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons have a good offense. The Dons feature good outside shooters in Shabazz and Stefanini. They also have the inside game with Massalki and Tape. The Dons are likely to overwhelm the small Samford team in the halfcourt.

Samford presses a bunch, and they are looking for quick turnovers and transition baskets. They should be able to get some against a San Francisco team who has turned the ball over on 23.9% of their possessions on offense so far this year. 

Both of these teams have struggled badly to play defense without fouling in recent seasons. I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies play a lot of low scoring games. Why? Montana will rank in the bottom 60 or 70 teams in the country in pace of play nearly every year. They are also much better on defense than on offense. Offensively, this team often struggles to get in a rhythm. On the defensive side, they'll make things tough for their opponent.

Mississippi State just torched the nets for 13/23 shooting from 3 point range last game against Montana. That has pushed this total too high. North Dakota isn't Mississippi State. The Fighting Hawks don't have many good shooters.

North Dakota stayed under this total against fast paced Milwaukee in game one. Montana is the better team and they should dictate pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams still aren't a good offensive team. Fordham has been hapless on offense the last few years. They have a new coach in Kyle Neptune, but this team hasn't just automatically become good at the outside jumper. I still expect Fordham to be in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. 

St. Thomas is a new Division I school this year. St. Thomas has had two pretty high scoring games this year and that has likely led to this total being steamed upward. It's important to note though that they played Chicago State and St. Francis (NY) in those games. Those are two of the bottom 20 defenses in the country. Fordham has been a top 100 defense in most recent seasons, and the Rams will at least be a much tougher defense than either of St. Thomas' first two opponents.

I don't think the pace will be all that quick here. Unless both teams are shooting it well, this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears sped up their pace of play some last year. Missouri State Coach Dana Ford said in the offseason that Jaylen Minnett was a big pickup for his team because, "He is a dynamic scoring guard that will allow us to play an even more up-tempo, aggressive style on both ends." 

Missouri State played a 77 possession game (very fast) against SE Missouri State in their season opener. The Bears were the team pushing the pace in that one for the most part. Missouri State only used 14.6 seconds of the shot clock on average in that game.

Alabama State has played two extremely fast paced games in their first two contests. Mo Williams is their coach and he wants this team to get up and down. Alabama State struggles badly with turnovers on the offensive end, but Missouri State hasn't forced many turnovers the last couple seasons. 

A lot of transition basketball in this one. The pace will be there. As long as the shooting numbers are decent I like this to fall over the total.

Take the over.  

*5 Star Top Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been taught to play at an extremely quick tempo by their new head coach Tommy Lloyd. Arizona played faster in their first game than they did in any game last year. The Wildcats used only 13.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average, and that is despite the fact that they had a large lead throughout most of that game. 

Arizona won 81-52 and that game stayed under the total. There were two things that kept that game under the total. Northern Arizona decided to go zone and try to slow the game down. Northern Arizona also was dreadful shooting the basketball. They put up just 0.74 points per possession.

UT Rio Grande Valley has a new coach too in Matt Figgers. Figgers is known as a great offensive coach, but his teams aren't usually very good on defense. Figgers said he has encouraged Ricky Nelson to push the pace from the point guard spot as much as he can this year. Look for UT Rio Grande to try to get in transition when they can as well.

Arizona is too good offensively for UT Rio Grande Valley to slow them down. In this case, Arizona is playing a team who clearly wants to play quickly. The total is set lower than their first game which saw the total steamed up to 145 points against Northern Arizona. 

I had this total set quite a bit higher than this.

Take the over. Top Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* Josh Schertz promised to have this Indiana State team playing much faster this year. He came over from Lincoln Memorial (D II powerhouse school) where his teams always played extremely fast. In game one against Wisconsin Green Bay (a team that wants to play slowly), Indiana State forced the tempo very well. The Sycamores won 81-77 in a game that played to a quick 73 possessions. 

Purdue has an impressive amount of offensive weapons this year. Jaden Ivey is a breakout candidate. Stefanovic is an excellent outside shooter. Edey and Williams are next to impossible to guard on the inside. Purdue piled up 96 points on Bellarmine in the season opener. Indiana State doesn't have the talent and length to stop them defensively either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abilene Christian was elite defensively last year, and they were no better than mediocre on offense. They lost some of their best offensive talent from a year ago and they have a new head coach. 

Texas A&M wants to grind games down and win with their defense and tenacity. Buzz Williams has a team with a lot of length that I think can really bother Abilene Christian. On the other hand, Texas A&M doesn't have good guards that I trust with breaking Abiliene Christian's aggressive trapping defense without turning it over a lot. 

I expect both teams to have a lot of wasted empty possessions where they don't even get a shot up in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats are going to play much faster this year under first year head coach Tommy Lloyd. He said his top priority early in the season is to get this team running and pushing the pace. The Wildcats have very athletic big men this year who will be able to dominate the weak Northern Arizona defense in the frontcourt.

Northern Arizona's coach said before the season that he feels he has more guys who are capable of pushing the tempo than he has had in recent years. It's a good thing because they are likely  to need to push the tempo most of the way here since they should be down by quite a few through this game.

The last two years these two have played the game went over the total both times and that was with slower paced teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys are without Cade Cunningham, but this team showed they can score last year even without Cade in the lineup. The pace for Boynton's teams will always be quick.

UT Arlington has a new head coach, Greg Young, and he said his top priority is for this UT Arlington team to revert back to the extremely fast tempo they played at a few years ago. Here is a great chance for them to do just that against an Oklahoma State team that likes to run as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores are a team I expect to undergo a major "pace change" this year with their new head coach Josh Schertz. Schertz has been at Division II powerhouse Lincoln Memorial for years and that team has pushed the pace to the extreme while he was there. He said in the preseason he wants there to be a much quicker tempo for Indiana State.

Will Ryan coaches Green Bay and they don't play very fast, but they are very weak defensively so they still had quite a few pretty high scoring games last season.

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams have new coaches this year. Both of these also lost a ton of star power off their team from a year ago. Though Joe Golding is gone at Abilene Christian I would expect their defense to stay very strong and their offense to be scrappy but not efficient.

Craig Smith is the new coach at Utah. Smith is an excellent defensive coach. The Utes are very short handed on offense this year, but I expect them to play very well defensively for their coach.

The pace here should be relatively slow and I expect both teams to have to work very hard for open looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Big pace change coming for UMBC. Ryan Odom is gone and Jim Ferry is their new head coach. Ferry's teams have pushed the tempo year after year. Odom's teams played a lot of low scoring tight games. 

UMass was happy to run last year and I think they'll play fast enough again for this one to get past the posted total unless there is terrible shooting numbers across the board.

UMBC's totals will look a lot different this year. I don't the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gonzaga and UCLA shot lights out in the Final 4. Baylor's defense has been tremendous in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears likely know they need to win this game with their defense. 

Gonzaga and Baylor rank number one and number two in offensive efficiency. There isn't anything negative I can say about these two offenses. The equalizer is how high this totals number is and how big of a game this is for both teams. 

As a general rule, the under has fared better in big games on neutral courts. This is the biggest game of the year and it is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Could these teams nail a bunch of shots and go over this total? Of course they could. With the high stakes and this high of a total though, I have to side with the under. History is on the side of the under in this situation. 

Even Baylor's game against Arkansas (a very fast paced team) only got to 153 points despite great shooting from both teams. Gonzaga's matchups with Oklahoma, Creighton, and USC all went under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins deserve a lot of credit for having gotten this far. This team was down double digits in the first half against Michigan State in the First Four. It's hard to believe that they rolled into the Final 4 by beating Alabama and Michigan in back to back games. They were able to turn the Alabama and Michigan games into much lower scoring games than expected. UCLA will try hard to slow the pace down here. Can they do it? I think Gonzaga will still push the tempo quite a bit, but I do think UCLA does a better job slowing the pace than USC did in the last round.

Gonzaga now ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. While their offense gets all the credit (and it is awesome), this Gonzaga defense has looked very good as well. The Bulldogs have showed in each of their last two games that if they get a large lead they will definitely grind the pace down to a halt in the last six minutes or so of the contest. Since the spread sits at 14, there is a real chance this is one of those games where Gonzaga slows things down a lot late.

In the NCAA Tournament, betting the under in a game with a large spread has been a great long term betting system. 

This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium and the shooting backdrop in a huge football stadium like this can be very difficult. The under has done well here in the long run.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the USC Trojans and the winner will head to the Final 4. 

Gonzaga has been tremendous all season on offense. There isn't anything negative I can say about the Bulldogs offense. They are extremely balanced and talented. They are up against by far the best defense they have faced so far this year in this contest though. 

USC has been mixing in a lot of zone of late. Andy Enfield's team ranks first in the nation in 2 point defense (Gonzaga is 1st in 2 point offense). The Trojans have two great frontcourt defenders in the Mobley's. This will make Gonzaga work much harder for their points in the paint than they are accustomed to. The Bulldogs are still going to score quite a few, but I think USC can slow them down at least some.

USC's offense isn't as good as they have looked in the last two games. The Trojans are 21/35 from 3 point range in their last two games. This is a team that shot a little less than 36% from 3 point range in the regular season. 

USC has to know that they have a much better chance of winning this game if they slow down the pace. Enfield is a good coach so I trust him to try to have his team control the pace at least to some degree. 

USC is 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is clearly a plus for the under. 

In the NCAA Tournament- games with a spread of 6 or more and a total of 138.5 or higher are 147-105 to the under (58.3%) in the last 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The USC Trojans defense has been elite this year. USC is first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Evan Mobley is an absolute force in the paint on defense. USC is still underrated by many people on the defensive end in my opinion. 

Oregon's Dana Altman is a tremendous defensive coach. He can game plan to play his matchup zone or even a 1-3-1 or man to man to keep the offense guessing. He is likely to bring out the full court press here, but it is a full court press that actually tends to slow the pace down and make the opponent work very hard to find an open shot.

Oregon ran up and down the court with Iowa. The Ducks haven't done that on many occasions. The fact that they nearly put 100 on Iowa has this total inflated by a few points. 

The first time these two played it was 72-58 and played to a slow pace of 62 possessions. This game means a ton and I think that will lead to strong defense and careful offensive possessions for the two teams. The fact that these two teams know each other so well also lends itself to a defensive minded game.

This should be a great matchup between two really good coaches. Expect open shots to be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange are 29/58 from 3 point range in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Syracuse is just 35% from 3 point range on the season. Houston has ranked 1st, 8th, and 12th at defending beyond the 3 point line in the past three years. Kelvin Sampson's team should have a good game plan for really contesting Buddy Boeheim and company's long range jumpers here.

Houston plays at a very slow pace. They rank 325th in the country. The Cougars are a good offensive team, but they aren't quite as good offensively with DeJon Jarreau hobbled. He is a real playmaker for this team. The Syracuse zone is different than anything Houston has seen this year, and I do think it will give them trouble here. 

Syracuse has played noticeably slower in their last five games than they did earlier in the season. Houston wants to play slowly. I think the pace here is a pretty slow one. It will take some good shooting numbers to get past this. Both defenses are very solid.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears defense started out the season well, but they have tailed off badly throughout the last 10 or 12 games. Baylor is still very good defensively if they can force a lot of turnovers. This team thrives on forcing their opposition to waste possessions. Villanova ranks first in the country in turnover percentage according to KenPom. While Gillespie is out for Villanova, they have done a great job taking care of the basketball in the last four games without him as well.

Robinson-Earl is a tremendous weapon for Jay Wright. Baylor's weakness is their post defense. Expect Villanova to get Robinson-Earl a ton of touches in the paint area and put a lot of pressure on this Baylor defense.

Villanova's defense ranks 221st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defenses. This is the worst Villanova defense since 2008. Baylor is an extremely efficient offensive machine. The Bears rank 3rd in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Baylor put up a big number here. Villanova has really struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Baylor is the best three point shooting team in the nation.

This one has the potential to be a foul fest late with a spread of 7 points. The offenses are much better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Maryland ranks 27th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Terrapins rank 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency since the start of February though. Both of these teams are far better on the defensive end than the offensive end. 

Alabama ranks 9th in the nation in tempo and that kind of pace is certainly a concern with taking unders, but this is a tough matchup for the Alabama offense. Alabama wants to run and score in transition. Maryland ranks in the top 15 percent of teams in the nation in transition defense. 

Alabama's offense has been trending in the wrong direction of late. They rank 73rd in the nation in offensive efficiency during that time. They rank 39th for the year overall.

Maryland's tempo has drastically slowed late in the year. They rank 319th in the nation in tempo. Maryland likes to shoot a lot of shots from beyond the arc, but Alabama has held opponents to 28.5% from long range on the season.

Maryland has seen 13 of their last 15 games stay under this total. Despite their tempo, Alabama has seen 4 of their last 7 games stay under this total.

Both defenses are tough matchups for the opposing offense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers slow the tempo down as much as possible. Look for them to work hard to make this a halfcourt game. Oregon State has been playing a lot of zone defense lately, and when you are slowing down a game playing zone makes a lot of sense especially when the opponent is a team like Oklahoma State who wants to run as much as possible.

Oklahoma State hasn't seen much zone this year, but they rate in the 15th percentile in zone offense so far this year, so that could be a problem here. On the other end, Oklahoma State is an excellent defensive team, and they have been going zone part of the time lately as well. 

Oklahoma State is not a very good outside shooting team. Oregon State isn't as good offensively as they have looked in their last couple games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks defense has been exceptional at the end of this season. Bill Self has talked extensively about how much he loves the way this team has improved on the defensive end of the floor. 

Eastern Washington has been good offensively for much of the year. The Eagles do have a couple impressive players offensively. Still, they aren't accustomed to going up against this kind of athletic defense with a bunch of length. Eastern Washington only scored 52 against Oregon. That is the best defense they have faced this year. Kansas is a much better defense than Oregon on the season. 

Kansas' offensive efficiency is way down this year. The Jayhawks will score on Eastern Washington, but it probably won't be as pretty as you would expect if you think of Kansas as the same team they were a few years ago.

These top seed games where the higher ranked team is a big favorite have gone under at a tremendous rate in the NCAA Tournament in the first round in the past decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida State Seminoles are favored by 10.5 points here. First round games in the NCAA Tournament with a total of above 138 have gone under the total at a nearly 60% clip in the last decade. This one fits that system.

Florida State is the tallest team in the country. It is extremely hard to get good looks inside the arc against the Seminoles. That's a problem for UNC Greensboro since they shoot 30% from long range and they rely strongly on Miller getting to the basket. Miller is a star point guard, but he is only 6'0 and I think Florida State's length will bother him.

Florida State's offense is hot and cold. If they are nailing a ton of 3's this could certainly lose, but I do think UNC Greensboro's pressure defense could give them some trouble here.

I think both teams are strong defensively and both coaches are good at putting together a good game plan to keep the opposition guessing by switching around defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Winthrop ranks 8th in the country in tempo. The Eagles are going to push the pace here. They haven't played a really good team all year. Villanova will be the best offense they have faced, even with Villanova without Gillespie at point guard.

Villanova ranks 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Yes, they are worse on offense without Gillespie. They still are far better than the teams Winthrop has been up against. This Villanova team is much weaker defensively than they have been in recent seasons as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game looks like a real slow it down defensive battle. These two teams are both elite on defense, and both of them have real question marks on offense. 

Rutgers is 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency (75th on offense). Clemson is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency (99th on offense).

Clemson has been a poor team away from home and it has been their offense that has let them down more times than not. 

I would expect a close hard fought contest where the defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Texas ranks 350th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green are extremely deliberate all of the time. This is a team that ranks 20th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense as well. 

Purdue relies heavily on post up offense (more than anyone else in the nation). The Boilermakers have a ton of size and great low post players. Because of this, Purdue is very slow paced as well and they'll use up the shot clock. North Texas is great at post defense. The Mean Green are giving up only 0.80 points per post up which ranks in the top 10 percent of all teams in the country. They should make Purdue work harder than most teams do to score in the low post.

North Texas is reliant on the outside jumper, and Purdue does defend the 3 pretty well. The Mean Green can go through long scoring droughts at times.

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is a big football dome where shooting has been a problem in the long run. This is a clear positive for the under on the whole.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys defense will be the best defense Liberty has seen all year. Mike Boynton is underrated as a defensive-minded coach. Liberty scored just 52 at TCU and 60 at Missouri. The Flames are a good offensive team, but they have played a bunch of very weak defenses in the ASun.

Oklahoma State has turnover problems on offense, and that can lead to inefficient offense at times. Liberty's defense is great on the glass. They rank 14th in defensive rebounding percentage in the country.

I fully expect Liberty Coach Ritchie McKay to have a game plan to do their very best to slow this game down to a crawl. Liberty knows they need a halfcourt game and they are excellent in transition defense. They won't go for second chance points much, they will just look to get back.

Liberty has been here before and I think they will make this game tighter than you might think. I do think Oklahoma State's length will bother their shots as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are favored by 25.5 points here. This one should be a very easy matchup for the Bears. Highly seeded teams who are favored by a wide margin have been great under bets in the past 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this makes a lot of sense because the game has virtually no chance of going to overtime and there isn't much of a chance of a late foul fest.

Baylor would be well served here to get ready for their next game which would be tricky against either UNC or Wisconsin. I think they get a big lead and then slow things down some.

Hartford is known as a scrappy tough defensive team, but they have struggled to score on everyone this year. They only scored 53 against Villanova. They had some very low scoring games even against America East competition. Hartford is a one man show (Carter) on offense, and Baylor should have a good game plan for him.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the nation this year (only Virginia has been slower). The Mountaineers are unlikely to change up their style of play here. This is a team that looks to grind things down to a halt and win with halfcourt offense and offensive rebounds.

Texas Southern has only faced a couple teams this year that really slow things down (Alabama A&M and St. Mary's. St. Mary's shot lights out in TX Southern's loss to them. Mt St. Mary's isn't a good shooting team at all and they are unlikely to be able to do that here. Texas Southern improved a lot on defense this year, and they have several good shot blockers down low. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot. This should be a sloppy game with both teams struggling with efficiency. It wouldn't surprise me to see the winner of this game in the lower 60's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have been great defensively at the end of the season. Illinois held Michigan to 53 points in their blowout win on March 2nd. The following game they held Ohio State to 68 points at home. They held Iowa to 71 points yesterday in a game played to 76 possessions. Illinois has been locked in defensively.

Ohio State will want to slow the pace down here. The Buckeyes slowed things down in a big way in their win over Michigan on Saturday. That game was played to just 61 possessions. The Buckeyes are likely to be without Kyle Young (concussion protocol), who actually has their highest offensive rating per KenPom. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is a football dome. These huge football domes have led to a lot of lower shooting percentages over the years and that has held true in this conference tournament season as well.

This is an awfully high total for a game for the Big Ten Championship and a game that is played on a neutral court that is clearly more difficult for shooters.

Take the under here.