*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and New Hampshire Wildcats have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. The last six meetings between these two have totaled the following amount of points: 121, 131, 113, 120, 113, and 130 (in overtime). All six of these games have stayed under this total by more than one possession. 

Hartford consistently slows the pace of the game down. New Hampshire's tempo looks quick on the season, but that is skewed because they played a Bryant team that is playing faster than anyone else in the country. 

Neither of these teams are good shooting the basketball. I think this total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos beat the New Mexico Lobos 77-53 on Monday. I had the under in that one, and I will be on the under again here. 

Boise State's defense is much improved this year. The Broncos are going to be a tough team in the Mountain West this year. Boise State is 33rd in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. They have done a solid job against both BYU and Houston in big games earlier this year.

New Mexico is going to struggle to score this year. The Lobos lost their top few options offensively, and this is a team that really relies on second chance points. Boise State is an excellent defensive rebounding team and that makes them a tough matchup for this limited New Mexico offense.

New Mexico has slowed their pace down and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played on a neutral floor in Las Vegas. Grand Canyon is working hard to slow the pace down this year. Bryce Drew's team is excellent on the defensive glass, and they defend well without fouling. 

Colorado just shot the ball really well last game against Washington, but Tad Boyle's team has a history of being inconsistent on the offensive end. The Buffaloes are very good on defense. They mix up their defenses and I think that will bother the Grand Canyon offense which doesn't have all that many great scoring options.

Early neutral site games have been great under bets in the long run, and I see some value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks rank 313th in offensive possession length (how many seconds per possession). Wagner has consistently worked hard to slow teams down this year. They were even able to slow a game down against Bryant (who ranks first in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Sacred Heart has a young team, and it appears Coach Anthony Latina has decided to slow down the tempo for his youngsters. They are 261st in the nation in average possession length so far this year. 

These two teams just played on Monday and the final was 74-46. Wagner was 11/22 from 3 point range and Sacred Heart was 2/23 from 3 point range. 

I would expect this game to be higher scoring than the game on Monday, but the pace of the game on Monday was just 64 possessions. If we assume this will be 67 possessions, a good amount faster, my numbers still can't get very close to this total.

At 67 possessions these teams would both have to average 1.04 points per possession on average to get this total to 139.5. These are two very poor offensive teams. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Niagara is a team I've isolated as due for positive regression on offense. The Purple Eagles did shoot the ball much better in their last game against Fairfield. Niagara was really efficient offensively last year, and they return most of their main guys. There isn't any reason to expect anything other than a solid offense here yet again. 

On the other end of the floor, Niagara is really bad. They were 310th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have have played four games against bad offenses this year, and their defensive stats are skewed right now.

Albany shot the ball horribly in their last game, and their season stats are very poor offensively. The Great Danes put up 84 points in an 84-80 win over Niagara last year, and they should be able to score on Niagara quite a bit again this year.

This total is too low based on recent scores from these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos dialed back the tempo a bit so far this year. Paul Weir said the team fouled too much in exhibitions leading up to the season and he had to have the team turn it down to 80 instead of 100. New Mexico then played a much slower than expected pace against Rice in their only game against a Division One opponent so far this year.

New Mexico should be far worse on offense than they were a year ago. The Lobos will badly miss Vance Jackson, JaQuan Lyle, and Zane Martin. The Lobos have more length on the inside than they have had in some previous seasons, and their defense should at least be decent.

Boise State is far better defensively this year than they were a year ago. The Broncos are one of the 15 tallest teams in the country. They are always excellent on the defensive boards which is a big deal here. 

There is a good chance Boise State wins this game by a decent margin, and if that is the case I see them slowing the pace down even more late in the game.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs have played eight games, and only two of them have stayed under 156 points (153 and 136). Bryant has gotten to 169 points or more in four of their games this year. This team ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are going to push at every opportunity.

UMass is expected to be much better on offense with some of the newcomers they brought in. The Minutemen have been very good on offense through three games. They have scored 94, 75, and 85 points in those three games. Bryant is the fastest paced team UMass has played yet.

The tempo should clearly be here. There is always a chance of bad shooting, but this game is far off my projected number for this game.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* I took the over when these two teams met on Friday night and cashed. I'll be on the over again here. The number has been adjusted up some, so this is a slightly smaller play. Still, I think there is value on the over.

Portland State plays at an extremely fast pace every single year under Coach Peery. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. The Vikings have shot the ball horribly so far this year. Portland State is shooting 21% from long range. They have an effective field goal percentage of only 38.1% (324th in the country). They have still had two of their three games against division one opponents finish at 159 points or more. They should start shooting the ball better, but their defense has serious problems.

Weber State has a much improved offense this year. The Wildcats have many more scoring options than they had last year. Weber State torched this Portland State press on Friday, and they should get a lot of open looks again here. 

These two have a history of playing high scoring matchups against each other.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Radford Highlanders lost all kinds of offensive talent from last year. Radford is going to struggle to score on nearly everyone they play this year. This is a team though that does play defense, and they know how to slow the game down. Radford should play in a lot of low scoring contests this year.

Vanderbilt is much improved on defense. Saban Lee was good offensively for this team last year, but he was a weak defender. They have upgraded on the defensive end, but are somewhat weaker on offense. Vanderbilt has also drastically slowed their tempo this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears are playing more than two seconds per possession quicker than they did a year ago. Kansas State is better on offense and worse on defense than they were a year ago. Even before those two changes, Baylor and Kansas State played games last year that finished with 140 and 151 total points.

Baylor has scored at least 82 points in each of their first four games. Kansas State gave up 81 points at home to Fort Hays St in a loss. They also gave up 80 to Drake and 75 to Wisconsin Milwaukee. Baylor should be able to score a lot of points here.

Kansas State is 91st in effective field goal percentage offense this year. They were 270th last year. They will drop during the season, but they do appear to be better on offense this year.

This total is set as if it were a game played last year. These are two different teams this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins beat the Winthrop Eagles 80-73 at home last year. Both of these teams are playing significantly faster than they did a year ago. In fact, Winthrop is playing at the single fastest pace on offense of any team in the country so far this year. 

Furman is playing 1.5 seconds per possession quicker so far this year than they did a year ago. The Paladins are a really efficient offense with multiple elite scoring options on the floor at all times.

Both of these teams shoot the ball well and the pace should be there.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* South Alabama's defense is really bad. They are 317th out of 324 teams who have played so far this year in effective field goal percentage defense. It isn't because they have played a bunch of good offenses either. Southern Miss put up 75 points on this team, and the Golden Eagles have major offensive woes. Flagler put up 81 points on South Alabama. 

Alabama A&M impressed on offense in their first game against Samford. This isn't a team that is going to end up being all that good on offense though. Still, they put up 79 points against this South Alabama defense last year.

South Alabama is good at pushing the pace. They are clearly the more polished offense. They should lead in this game, and they should get to the line a bunch.

This one was 89-79 in a very fast paced game last year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wright State has a lot more length and physicality in the frontcourt this year. When he was asked before the year what would be the most different about this year's Wright State team Coach Scott Nagy said they would be much better on defense thanks to their frontcourt. 

Wright State still plays relatively quickly, but they are better on defense than on offense. 

Detroit has slowed their pace down a bit from a couple years ago. This Detroit team isn't great on defense by any means, but they are certainly improving on that end. 

I had this game totaled at 142, so I see value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't the type of bet I would usually make betting a high over in a neutral court contest. Iowa and Gonzaga aren't your typical teams though. These are the top two offenses in the country. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in tempo as well.

Luka Garza is nearly unstoppable, and Gonzaga definitely doesn't have anyone who can stop him. The Hawkeyes have multiple very good outside shooters.

Gonzaga can push in transition with Suggs and the athletic frontcourt players as well as anyone in the country. 

Iowa used a full court press quite a bit in their last game, and I expect that to show up here again. The Hawkeyes halfcourt defense is terrible, and Gonzaga will expose them. 

Gonzaga's defense was a question mark to Coach Few before the year. They'll have trouble here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings had a low scoring game against Washington State last game. I think that gives us a good chance to get a solid number to play the over here. This total is the same as the Portland State game against Washington State game was. Washington State is an under team, and Weber State has a far weaker defense.

Weber State picked up a lot of solid junior college transfers in the offseason. They had an ugly shooting performance against Boise State last game, but Boise State will make a lot of offenses look bad this year. 

The lowest scoring game in the last ten meetings between these two is a total of 151 points. This posted total has been set lower than that. 

Portland State will continue pressing and running at every opportunity and they will have a lot of high scoring games this year. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have underachieved on defense according to my expectations this year. They have overachieved versus my expectations on offense. Oregon losing Pritchard has to hurt their offense on the whole. On the defensive side, Oregon should be about where they were a year ago. 

San Francisco has been really impressive this season so far. The Dons defense has impressed me in their wins over Nevada and Virginia. San Francisco should be competitive here.

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass and that should limit second chance scoring. This line is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* These teams met on November 30th at Mercer. The final score was 86-69 and the game was played to a blistering fast pace of 79 possessions. I don't see any reasons to expect anything different here.

Mercer uses traps and aggressive defense which keeps the opposition moving. Georgia State ranks among the 25 fastest teams in the country in terms of pace. They will be more than happy to run. 

Mercer is a much better shooting team this year with Ross Cummings on the roster. The Bears have scored 77 points or more in every game this season. 

I expect both offenses to look good here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange sped up a bit last year from the year before. They have sped up a lot more this season from last year. They have a lot more speed in the backcourt and they have more options as 3 point shooters on the outside also. This Orange team is likely to keep running through the season.

Northeastern played two games against UMass and they ran in both of those games. While they likely won't play all that fast through the year, I don't think they can stall here too much because they are likely to be losing throughout.

Take the over here. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total of the WEEK* These two teams played on Tuesday and the final score was 91-86 St. Francis. That game was played to a ridiculous fast pace of 82 possessions. If they play at that pace again, both teams could average a very weak 0.94 points per possession and this one would go over the total. This game might be a bit slower, but these are two weak defenses. 

It was no fluke that there was a really high scoring game between these two. The last two meetings before yesterday for these two teams were 169 points and 164 points.

I don't know what would make the oddsmakers set such a low total on a game like this. These teams have proven that they play at a track meet pace when they face off against each other. 

My numbers make this game quite a bit higher than this. 

Take the over. TOP Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* Travis Ford has picked up the pace in a big way for this St. Louis team. I'm happy to see them push the gas pedal down. This is a team that is at their best when they are in transition and getting to the basket and drawing fouls. They should be able to do that against an Indiana State team who fouls a lot and can struggle in transition defense.

Indiana State played a high scoring game against Purdue (typically a lower scoring team). The Sycamores played very fast in that game. Indiana State has a very good guard in Tyreke Key. They should be able to get to the line too against a St. Louis defense that is very aggressive.

The tempo of this game should be quick enough to get this one past the posted total unless the shooting numbers are very poor.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wisconsin played two games all of last year (31 games) with a tempo of 70 possessions or more. In their five games so far this year, three of them have been 70 possessions or more. Wisconsin is using only 16.6 seconds on average of the shot clock compared to 19.9 seconds of the shot clock last year. The Badgers will likely slow back down a bit, but this total is priced as if they are playing as slow or even slower than last year.

Loyola (Chicago) is a good offensive team. They added a very good offensive transfer from Oakland, Braden Norris. They now have a plethora of good outside shooters. The Ramblers have one big weakness as a team and that is defending the 3 point line. 

Wisconsin has been an above average team for many years in a row from beyond the arc. The Badgers should be able to get a lot of open looks from three in this one.

This number has dropped enough that I see value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gabe Watson was the top scorer for Southern Miss last year and he left the team in the offseason. Jay Ladner's team is playing significantly slower this year than it did last year (and they were already slow last year). It appears he is trying to hide their poor offense and lean on the defense to keep them in games.

Lamar lacks the outside shooting to make Southern Miss pay for sagging back in the paint and trying to keep people away from the rim. Lamar is shooting less than 25% from 3 point range on the season. 

Lamar's defense does a good job forcing a lot of turnovers and wasted trips down the floor. Southern Miss is very prone to those problems.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have improved a lot on defense this year. Why? The main reason is Theo Akwuba on the inside. The 6'11 big man is a good defensive rebounder and a guy who can swat a lot of shots in the paint. Louisiana didn't have anyone like him last year and opponents frequently got to the hoop against this team.

New Orleans takes far too many midrange jumpers for my liking. New Orleans also turns the ball over a bunch. Expect a lot of wasted possessions from them. They will improve on defense this year since their frontcourt is healthier than it was last year.

These two teams already played this year. It was a 66-63 final. This one shouldn't be that low since the shooting numbers were bad in that one, but I expect a bunch of turnovers again and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last year when these two teams met the final total was 128 points. Clemson is much better on defense this year than they were a year ago. The Tigers rank second behind only Texas Tech in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have completely shut down Mississippi State, Maryland, and Alabama already this season.

Virginia Tech ranks as one of the 25 slowest paced teams in the country. The Hokies are a top 50 defense in the country as well. They have scored 64 points or less in regulation in three of their last four games. Offensively, this is a team that can go through some slumps.

Clemson's offense has struggled year after year under head coach Brad Brownell. Clemson has been inefficient every single season, and I would expect the same this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies lost their top three offensive players from a year ago. Houston Baptist was awful on defense last year and pretty good on offense. They are much weaker on offense this year. Yes, they are still bad on defense. However, Houston Baptist is clearly playing slower than last year. They are using more than a second per possession more on average already this year.

Rice also lost a bunch of their outside shooters from last year. The Owls are improved on the defensive end, but they are weaker on offense this season.

This isn't a game I'm excited to bet the under in, because Houston Baptist unders are tough to take. Still, it is one where I am off the market by enough that I have to play the under here because I see enough value.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials averaged 18.9 seconds per possession last year. They are playing much faster this year. George Washington is averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession so far this season. George Washington's games have averaged 154 points so far this year. They have played only one game this year that has stayed under this posted total. 

William & Mary has played only one game this year. The Tribe lost a 82-78 decision against Old Dominion. Old Dominion is a slow paced team with a solid defense. William & Mary is loaded with good shooters, and this is an efficient offense every year. They haven't finished outside the top 31 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense since 2012. At the same time, they aren't very good on the defensive end.

Look for George Washington to push the pace here, and this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Portland State isn't a team I am looking to take unders with very often, but this number is too high from the oddsmakers when they are up against Washington State.

Kyle Smith's Washington State team is far better on defense than offense. The Cougars are also going to look to slow the game down. Portland State's single biggest weapon on offense is offensive rebounding. Washington State has been a good defensive rebounding team the last couple seasons. 

I made this number quite a few points lower than this, but I'm going to keep this as a 3 star rated play because Portland State games can have a lot of variance with their pressure style and a lot of fouls.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coppin State Eagles play at an extremely fast pace. Juan Dixon's team ranks 4th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. They are averaging 77 possessions per contest.

UMBC decided before the season that they wanted to play much quicker than a year ago. Coach Ryan Odom thought it would help the offense be more efficient and have more constant motion. So far he has been right. UMBC is shooting the ball much better from the floor so far this season.

These two teams have played each of the last three seasons. The final totals in those games have been 155, 131, and 163 points. UMBC is playing significantly faster than they were in any of those seasons. 

Coppin State doesn't shoot the ball well, but they have faced a lot of defenses that are significantly better than UMBC as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm going to keep playing Air Force unders unless I think their opposition is a great over team. Joe Scott's Air Force team is going to rank in the bottom five in the nation in tempo this year. They will run the Princeton offense and use up the clock every time down the floor.

Drake is capable of high or low scoring games. I do think Drake is likely to win this game, but they have shown in the past that they are willing to slow the pace down when they are ahead in the second half.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks are going to play faster under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He learned under Kevin Keatts, and he is running the same system Keatts ran here. 

UNC Wilmington is aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting to the line a lot. They will have a tough matchup here against Ole Miss and a good interior defense, but since they are likely to be playing from behind I expect the tempo to be very quick from them. Also, I think Wilmington is likely to press at least some in this game.

Ole Miss will use their 1-3-1 zone to force turnovers this year, and they are going to look to score in transition off those turnovers. They had 75 points with 8 minutes left against Jackson State before letting off the gas to be as classy as possible. UNC Wilmington is a couple notches better than Jackson State, but the Seahawks will likely give up some easy transition buckets here.

Both teams are teams I would project to be good at getting to the line, and with a lower total like this I think that can be really important.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* The Dayton Flyers lost Obi Toppin from last year's team. Dayton is still a very good team, but the Flyers aren't even close to as efficient as last year. Dayton has struggled to score at times so far this year. Dayton has scored 66, 64, and 66 points in their games against Eastern Illinois, SMU, and Northern Kentucky. None of those teams are great on defense.

Mississippi State lost their top two offensive players from last year. The Bulldogs always play slowly and they are doing that again this year. This season they will be unable to shoot the ball at the same clip they did a year ago. On the other hand, they do have a couple very good shot blockers in the paint.

This game is played at a neutral site, and early games played on a neutral court have been good under bets in the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. That should be no big surprise since Chris Beard's teams are always excellent on the defensive end. Texas Tech has only allowed 46, 40, and 44 points in their last three games. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi isn't going to score many points here. The Islanders play at a slow pace and they struggle badly with turnovers. There will be a bunch of wasted possessions for them.

Texas Tech is 99th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Red Raiders offense is pretty good, but they also turn it over too much. This is a team that is comfortable playing at a slow pace as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mick Cronin's teams are always strong on the defensive end. The Bruins will be good on that end again this year. 

So far this season UCLA has been good on offense as well, but they have played some very weak defenses. The Bruins are now up against a Marquette team that ranks 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Marquette isn't the same team without Markus Howard. Howard was a shot maker and a guy that got to the line a lot and knocked down a ton of shots from the charity stripe. Their offensive efficiency will be far lower this season. 

Last year Marquette was 60th in tempo, and so far this year they are much slower 141st in the country. UCLA ranks in the bottom 20% of teams in the country in terms of tempo. 

Look for a tight lower scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grand Canyon Antelopes have a new head coach in Bryce Drew this year. Drew has always had his teams play slower than average. Grand Canyon has started out this year playing at a very slow pace against Grambling and Mississippi Valley State (it is hard to slow a game down against these guys). 

Nevada lost a ton of offense from last year's team. The Wolf Pack no longer have a go to guy on offense, and their backcourt is a big question mark. While they are clearly weaker on offense, I like Nevada's length in the frontcourt and how it could lead to opponents having a tougher time getting to the rim against this team. 

Nevada and Grand Canyon have both played some games that have been very low scoring on relative basis compared to last year. Based on both of these teams being high flying teams in recent seasons, I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted this total down enough.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are a much different team than they were a year ago. They have far less offensive weapons, but they are clearly better on defense. BYU now has a big man in the middle of the paint with length that can deter drivers from getting to the hoop. Matt Haarms is somewhat limited on offense, but he should be pretty good for this BYU team. 

BYU has played five Division One teams this year, and four of them rank in the top 100 in the nation in tempo. The Cougars have still played four of those five games under this total (highest score was only 147). I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting BYU totals down enough for their new roster.

Boise State's Marcus Shaver is banged up and will likely be less than 100% here. The Broncos have a good defensive team who can go through slumps on offense at times because they don't move enough.

BYU is good at forcing a lot of midrange jumpers which isn't ideal for Boise State's offensive identity. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers are playing significantly faster on offense this year. Travis Steele has his team spreading out on the floor and looking to use a euro style to get space and create open looks for their improved shooters on the perimeter. 

Oklahoma always wants to run under Coach Kruger. The Sooners have seen 171 and 160 points scored in their first two games. Their offense starts with Austin Reaves, and I don't think Xavier has anyone who matches up well defending him. 

I expect lots of chances in transition for both teams. These two teams are going to be very good in transition this season. 

Expect a close game all the way, and overtime or a foul fest is certainly a possibility with the way this game would project.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions on Wednesday night. Arkansas State has played a very tough schedule of defenses so far, and that has made their offensive numbers very ugly. That should change here.

Arkansas State has had 23.7% of their shots blocked so far this year. That can't continue. They saw less than 6% of their shots blocked a year ago, and an average number is in the 9-10% range. 

A key to this handicap for me is both teams getting to the free throw line a lot. Pine Bluff has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country at defending without fouling the last five years in a row. Arkansas State has ranked in the bottom 25 in that same stat in the last two years. 

Both of these teams have ranked very highly at getting to the charity stripe. They are both aggressive at taking it to the basket. Look for a lot of trips to the line in this game.

Pine Bluff has allowed 80 points or more in every game this year. I think Arkansas State can get there or get very close. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs have had a drastic change in pace so far this year. Bryant averaged 17.2 seconds per possession last year, but so far this year they are at a blistering face pace of only 12.8 seconds per possession. That is the second fastest pace in the country so far this year. 

Bryant has played three games. Two of them have been against Division I schools (Syracuse and New Hampshire). Those two games had a pace of 86 and 82 possessions. Their game against Rhode Island College finished 138-93 (97 possessions). After that game Jared Grasso, head coach at Bryant, said he was very happy with the pace his team played at in that contest.

St. Francis and Bryant played one of their two games last season over this number, and that was with Bryant playing significantly slower. The opening total has been bet up some here, but I don't think it has been bet up enough considering the tempo change.

St. Francis has been a slightly faster than average paced team on the whole in the last three seasons. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Hampton Pirates lost their two stars from last year. Jermaine Marrow graduated and Ben Stanley transferred to Xavier. Those two guys averaged 24.8 ppg and 22.0 ppg last season. They also lost their fourth leading scorer in Greg Heckstall. 

Before the season, Hampton Coach Edward Joyner Jr. said he wanted to change the tempo of his team this year. He said the strength of the team is inside and they need to run more halfcourt sets. Hampton ranked 56th in the nation in tempo last year, but they will be slower this season. They also are very likely to be far less efficient on offense. 

Norfolk State is usually the best or second best defense in the MEAC. Norfolk State isn't very good offensively, but they can force teams into a lot of bad looks and turnovers.

Last year, Norfolk State played 11 games against Division I opponents in the non-conference schedule at the beginning of the year. All 11 of those games stayed under this total. One of those games was against Hampton (who was without Marrow as they will be again here) and the final was just 64-53. 

I would expect Hampton to be a little better on defense and worse on offense this year. Norfolk State is a very similar team to a year ago. This total is set at too high of a number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMBC Retrievers want to play with a lot more pace this year. Coach Ryan Odom said he believes the uptick in tempo this season will help with their offensive efficiency. The team has spent every bit of time they had prior to the season getting ready for their new faster style of play.

George Washington is playing much faster as well. Jamion Christian says he now has the personnel to play faster and shoot a lot more 3's than they did a year ago. George Washington ranks as the 17th fastest in average possession length so far this year. Their games have finished with 149, 160, and 154 points.

I expect to see a fast pace in this game, and the number hasn't been adjusted enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams met last year and the final total was 132 points. Houston is playing much slower so far this season, and I think they will try to turn this into a halfcourt contest.

South Carolina is once again a very scrappy team who will be excellent on the defensive end. The Gamecocks are likely to struggle on offense though. They only scores 62 on Liberty and 69 on Tulsa. Houston is a better defense than either of those teams.

This game is totaled as an average scoring game in college hoops. I think these defenses are too good for that number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Air Force has played at the single slowest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Joe Scott has made it known that he wants this team to run the Princeton offense and move extremely slowly this season. They have done exactly that thus far. Their first two games finished with 127 points (against a very fast paced team) and 108 points. 

Lamar is averaging only 58.3 points per game this year. They scored only 45 against Houston and 57 against Tulane. The Cardinals move a little faster than an average offense, but they are very inefficient. 

The books are having a hard time catching up to Air Force's change of pace. Unless they shoot really well here, I don't think they can get to this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eastern Washington is all about running and gunning on offense. This team ranked 19th in overall tempo in the country last year. 

What has Sean Miller talked about a bunch in the offseason? That he wants his team to play faster. Here is their chance. Arizona did shoot the ball quickly on their possessions against Grambling, but they weren't very efficient. I think the fact that the Grambling game was awfully low scoring for the tempo makes this total a good value.

Eastern Washington has several scorers, but they can't play any defense. Arizona should be able to put up a big number on them.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks didn't look very good in their loss to Missouri a couple days ago, but Missouri has more talent than most realize. Also, Missouri has decided to pick up their tempo a lot this season. The Tigers put up 83 points on what should be a good Oregon defense.

Seton Hall is a good defensive team under Kevin Willard. The Pirates play at an average tempo, and their guards aren't very good in transition offense. 

This game is played on a neutral court in Omaha. These neutral court games have been great under bets in the long run, and I think Oregon's first game being so high scoring has given us good line value on this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense wasn't good last year. Now, they are without their three best offensive options from a year ago. Jaden McDaniels and Isiah Stewart are in the NBA. Nahziah Carter is suspended right now. 

Washington has looked awful on the offensive end in their first couple games. They were non-competitive in a 86-52 loss to a great Baylor team in game one. The real concerning one for Washington fans was their 57-42 loss at home to UC Riverside. 

These two teams have met five times since Mike Hopkins took over at Washington and they started running the matchup zone defense. Utah and Washington have combined to score 132, 128, 122, 107, and 133 points in those five matchups. 

Utah has consistently been in the bottom 30% of the country in terms of tempo. I don't expect that to change this year. The Utes don't have much height on the perimeter and that long matchup zone of Washington has really given them trouble. 

Look for Utah's defense to be able to keep the weak Washington offense in check, and the matchup zone is likely still a problem for Utah.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers offense won't be as efficient this year without Tres Tinkle. He was the go to guy nearly all the time for this team the last few years. They played a bit slower in their first contest this year, and I would expect them to be a slow tempo team this season. They have more length this year though, and I think they could be better on the defensive end. 

Washington State has looked very good on defense in their first two games. The Cougars held Texas Southern (a pretty good SWAC offense) to only 52 points. They also held an Eastern Washington good offense to 68 points in game two. The Cougars prefer to play slowly, and this is their first opponent who will be happy to play slowly along with them.

Based on the projected pace and the shooting numbers necessary to get this past this total, I think this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Quinnipiac Bobcats meet on a neutral floor (Mohegan Sun) on Wednesday night. 

Drexel and Quinnipiac are fairly similar teams to last year. Drexel is playing a bit slower than a year ago, but they have been slightly more efficient on offense (just one game). Quinnipiac has the same nucleus and same coach and I expect a similar style of play as last year for them as well.

These two teams met last year on a neutral floor and the final score was 72-63. The tempo was just 65 possessions so it was a slow paced game.

Neutral courts are good for the under and that has already shown itself this season. This number has been set awfully high. I have this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Travis Steele said before the season that he wanted his team to go with a motion offense that led to them playing at a faster pace this year. Through three games, they have definitely played quicker. They averaged using 17.7 seconds of the shot clock last year and they are using only 16.3 seconds of the shot clock so far this year. Steele really thinks he has a much better outside shooting team this year as well.

Eastern Kentucky likes to press as much as possible and push the pace of the game. They have a lot of trouble on the defensive glass too, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. Eastern Kentucky's games typically have a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

This is a great opportunity for Xavier to work their motion offense and spread the floor and look for quicker shots.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Archie Miller said he has been wanting to play with faster tempo since he has been at Indiana, but this is the first time he has had the right guys to be able to do it. In their first game, Indiana used up only 13.4 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Hoosiers were playing far faster than they did last year. His players have said from practices that they are excited and that "people will be surprised at how fast we play." 

Providence played quick in their first game against Fairfield (a team who likes to slow the game down). Ed Cooley's teams can be a bit hard to figure out as far as their preferred pace, but I think their aggression on defense is likely to get Indiana to the line quite a bit here. On the other side, Providence is great on the offensive glass which should get them good second chance opportunities.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Play* The Samford Bulldogs have a new coach in Bucky McMillan. McMillan has stated in the preseason that he wants his team to win games that are "played in the 90's." He wants to use full court pressure all game long and sub in and out guys a bunch to stay fresh. 

It was a game against a Division III opponent, but Samford's exhibition win over Greenville University was one of the craziest box scores you will ever see. Samford won that game 174-99. Yes, you read that right.. they scored 174 points.

Also, the pace of the game was unreal. The game paced out to 116 possessions. An average game is 66 or 67 possessions. A very fast paced game is 85 or 90 possessions. 

I don't think we should assume Samford will be able to get Alabama A&M to play that quickly, but I do think Alabama A&M will have trouble with the press. Alabama A&M has finished two of the last three seasons in the bottom 40 in the country in turnover percentage on offense. Samford will turn them over and get easy scores.

Samford is the favorite here for a reason, and with them likely ahead in this one it should make Alabama A&M not be able to stall as often.

Samford's players and coaches are all talking the talk about playing extremely fast and they looked like they are backing it up in that exhibition. If they are- this total is clearly too low.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the WEEK* The Loyola Marymount Lions are playing a completely different way this year. Stan Johnson was a Marquette assistant and he took over the head coaching job at Loyola Marymount this year after the team let Mike Dunlap go at the end of last year. Johnson wants the team to play quicker, and they definitely did that in game one against Southern Utah. 

There were 74 possessions in that first game. That's a fast paced game, and it is something Loyola Marymount didn't do at all last year under Dunlap. All season long last season not a single game against a Division I opponent was played that fast.

Minnesota was absolutely flying up and down the court against Wisconsin Green Bay in game one. They shot the ball on average only 12.5 seconds into the clock. The Golden Gophers put up 99 points despite going only 7/34 from the 3 point line. 

Loyola Marymount ranked 15th in shot quality last year, but was only 112th in effective field goal percentage shooting. They have enough solid shooters on their team that they should improve their efficiency on offense. 

Minnesota's Marcus Carr is going to be a very tough guard for Loyola Marymount. Adding Liam Robbins down low and Both Gach on the perimeter gives Minnesota more scoring options than last year.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joe Scott's Denver Pioneers were a great under team. I expect Air Force to slow things down drastically this year from the past few seasons. Dave Phillipovich had the team playing at an average pace, and that simply isn't going to happen under Scott.

It remains to be seen how good the Air Force defense will be (likely not very good), but a game with a total set this high with a team stalling the way Scott's teams always did at Denver is a must bet to the under for me.

CS Northridge lost their top two players from last year. This is a team that doesn't have a great identity on either end of the floor right now.

I expect a slower pace here and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* SE Louisiana went a shockingly bad 1/28 from 3 point range in their season opener. That's really hard to do. SE Louisiana pushes the pace in a big way, and UAB will be more than happy to play fast under new coach Andy Kennedy. Can SE Louisiana knock down more shots here? They aren't likely to be great shooting as a team this year, but they are due for positive regression after a 1/28 performance. 

Kennedy's teams ranked in the top 75 or so in the country in tempo every year when he was on the sidelines in the past. UAB does have good shooters around the perimeter and several slashers that can get to the bucket.

SE Louisiana's defense takes all kinds of risks with the full court press and the team gives up a lot of open close shots. Their opponents also get to the line a lot. Expect this to be a big problem against this UAB offense.

My tempo projections here point to this total being closer to 150.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs ranked 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. Their interior defense was as bad as anyone in the country. UNC Asheville pushes the pace and tries to get steals and transition baskets, but their opposition gets a ton of easy looks in the paint and a lot of trips to the free throw line. 

UNC Wilmington is picking up their pace a lot under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He worked under Kevin Keatts and Keatts' system is a very fast paced one where the team tries to attack the rim and get to the basket a lot.

There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow the pace down in this game. This total is set a few points lower than it should have been considering the tempo here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Loyola Marymount Lions have a new coach this year. Mike Dunlap is gone and so is his very slow paced style. Stan Johnson was an assistant at Marquette, where they played a very fast paced style year after year. Johnson has already said they are committed to speeding things up this season.

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds went out and got some junior college guys who can shoot from long range in the offseason. Todd Simon's team should be much better on offense than they were a year ago. Simon also said in the offseason that they'll play faster. Simon said "I think we'll play faster- we've always been up-tempo, but we'll kick it up a notch this year." 

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough based on the two teams both picking up the pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Luke Yaklich is an amazing defensive mind. He made the Illinois State Redbirds a great defensive end in his time with the team. After he left the team's defensive numbers have gone down every year. When Yaklich showed up at Michigan as a defensive assistant the team was #68 in defensive efficiency. They were #3 and #2 in the next two years. Texas also got better under him last year. 

Yaklich is preaching contesting jumpers and getting on the defensive glass to this UIC team. I expect them to be a good defensive team.

Northern Illinois struggled a lot with offensive efficiency last year. They don't have any new weapons that would make me expect them to improve on that end. This team doesn't get to the line much either. They are solid on defense and are very good defensive rebounders. 

I expect a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks should play a lot quicker under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. UNC Wilmington didn't really have an identity last season. That will change this year. They will use full court pressure and try to get to the basket and get to the free throw line as much as possible on offense. Siddle was an assistant under Kevin Keatts, and his teams always rank in the top 50 in the nation in tempo.

Western Carolina has an underrated star in Mason Faulkner running the offense. The Catamounts were 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They also prefer to play at a quick pace, so I don't see them slowing this one down. 

If the shooting numbers are terribly low this could stay under, but with normalized shooting numbers and the pace I'm expecting- I have to bet the over (my number here was 152.5) 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Maryland lost all sorts of star power from a year ago. They had the talent to make noise in March last year, but the season was shut down. Maryland now must rely on their defense this season. The Terrapins won't be able to crash the offensive boards and get a bunch of second chance points. Old Dominion is great on the defensive glass. 

The Monarchs are always amazing at turning games into a rock fight. Their five non conference games against top 100 teams last year all finished at 129 points or lower. Old Dominion is short on offensive firepower.

The pace of this game will be very slow. Both teams here settle for a lot of mid range jumpers that aren't very good looks.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners rank 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Marshall ranks 100th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The two teams are 276th and 211th in offensive efficiency. 

These two teams met once during the regular season and the final was 71-61. 

Marshall is a very fast paced team, but they aren't efficient on offense this year like they were a year ago with Jon Elmore leading the way. This Thundering Herd team has a lot of length on the inside and they have multiple shot blockers.

UTEP played games far under this total during the regular season. In UTEP's last 12 games of the season, only one game went over 136 points.

This is played at Frisco Texas in the football practice facility. The under is 14-8 in games played here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 46-37 in the last 83 games played at Bridgestone Arena. This is a hockey arena (Nashville Predators) and the shooting backdrop is a difficult one. 

These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in big arenas, but I don't think there will be many people at this game. A big venue with a small amount of people at the game tilts things toward the under in the long run.

Ole Miss is third in the SEC in defensive efficiency. The Rebels have turned the ball over quite a bit on offense this season. 

Georgia plays quickly, but they have had major turnover problems on offense. The Bulldogs are too reliant on one player. 

In the regular season these two teams met and the final was 70-60. This game means more to both teams in the one and done tournament format.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are a defensive-minded team. They are third in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. They also rank 12th in CUSA in tempo, so they want to slow the game down as much as possible.

The under is 14-8 in the games played at Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a strange setup where multiple games are going on at once in a football practice facility. I think this is likely going to continue to be helpful for the under.

Old Dominion has played five games at Frisco in the last two years. Not a single game of Old Dominion's has finished higher than 120 total points.

Florida Atlantic is much better on defense than offense. Though they prefer to play quickly, they have had some very low scoring games this year. 

I think this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*Note- this line has moved some since I initially played this on Tuesday afternoon. I would play this for 5 stars down to 130. This would be a 4 star play for me at 129.5 or lower. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks and Idaho State Bengals square off at Century Link Arena in Boise on Wednesday afternoon. Century Link has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. 

Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment.

These teams aren't very good, and seeing a sloppy game here should come as no surprise. One thing both teams have done this year is defend without fouling, so I'll hope to avoid a ref show in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Idaho is a weak team and they are a big underdog here for a reason. Southern Utah has the best defense in the Big Sky. The Thunderbirds have been able to lock down on that end a lot this year.

In games with bigger spreads at a neutral site, the under has been a good play in the long run.

This game is at Century Link Arena. This has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. 

Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the Summit League final. This tournament has been great to under bettors, and I'm going to take the under again here. This is a big venue where the shooting backdrop is difficult. 

Additionally, this game is for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. When there is more on the line in the final game of these tournaments, in the long run it has been very helpful to the under.

Both of these teams are great at holding the opposition to one shot, and neither of these teams have gotten to the free throw line much this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison rank first in the Summit League in defensive efficiency. It's no secret that this league is offensive minded on the whole, but in the Summit League Conference Tournament the under has done really well in recent years.

This tournament is held at Denny Sanford Premier Center. This has been a good under venue. It is larger than most of these teams are accustomed to playing in. Additionally, these games clearly mean more to the teams than their regular season games have. That typically means the game slows down a bit and the defenses work a little harder. 

Both games in the regular season between these two teams went narrowly over this posted total. In both of those games both teams shot the ball well. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the shooting percentages tick down a bit in a game of this magnitude. The winner of this game will play tomorrow night for a NCAA Tournament spot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. 

The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario.

The first two meetings between these two were comfortably under this number. I like the under again here.

North Dakota needs to slow the game down and I think they'll do it here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. 

The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario.

Omaha has slowed their pace down this year. The two regular season meetings between these two teams were 138 and 141 points. This game means more and we are in a venue that is favorable to the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for both of these teams. They don't have anything important to play for. These late season regular season games between two mediocre teams have trended strongly toward the over in the past. The Huskies have been playing noticeably quicker in recent games, and Tulane is doing more trapping and forcing steals and trying to score in the open floor.

Both teams have been very aggressive on the offensive glass, and the AAC refs have a quick whistle. I see a lot of free throw attempts in this contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are excellent defensively. While Memphis has serious turnover problems on offense, the Tigers are 1st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. They are 154th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Houston ranks 5th in effective field goal percentage defense on the year. The Cougars rank 230th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

The shots in this game should be contested very well. Neither of these teams let their opponents near the hoop much at all.

This is an important game for both teams and I'll look for a strong defensive effort in an early Sunday afternoon contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fort Wayne Mastodons are one of the rare teams in the Summit League that is very weak on the offensive end and pretty good on the defensive end. Fort Wayne averaged only 0.969 points per possession in the conference this season. They were the third best defense in the Summit League.

South Dakota State slowed their pace down as the season moved along. The Jackrabbits are clearly the better team here, but they are happy to get a lead and keep the pace slower.

The two regular season meetings stayed under this posted total. This game is played at a venue where the under is 33-23 in the last 56 games played here. I think this game is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs and USF Bulls play in a meaningless final regular season game on Saturday evening. These two played a 82-64 game on January 1st. 

SMU ranks first in the American Athletic Conference in offensive efficiency. The Mustangs are a really good offensive team with Kendric Davis on the floor. SMU is able to get to the basket often, and USF doesn't have much shot blocking ability.

USF gets quite a few points from steals quick transition opportunities. SMU is susceptible to this, and I think that shows up in a game like this one.

USF is drawing fouls at a very high rate on their home floor. This is a low number for a final regular season contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners and Marshall Thundering Herd play on Saturday afternoon. Both of these teams are extremely fast paced teams who want a track meet whenever they can get it. 

The first game between these two was a track meet, but the shooting numbers were horrendous. In fact, UTSA won despite shooting 6/28 from 3 point range. Marshall was a putrid 3/26 from 3 point range. 

This is the final game of the regular season for both teams and these games have trended toward the over in the past decade. 

Look for more of the shots to fall on Saturday.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans play in a very important rivalry game on Saturday afternoon. Both teams have been playing great basketball of late. Both teams are likely in the field right now. As of a month ago, neither of these teams would have been in the NCAA Tournament.

UCLA slows the game down and they are turning into a normal Mick Cronin team who really defends well and scraps. 

USC has been mixing up their defenses, and Andy Enfield's team is really playing well on the defensive end. The Trojans should be able to bother the Bruins and contest their jumpers.

Two motivated teams in their final regular season game of the year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have slowed their pace down in their last five contests. They haven't played a single game in that stretch to anything faster than 65 possessions. 

Florida scored only 59 points at Kentucky in their recent meeting, and the Gators put up only 58 against Tennessee. 

Kentucky isn't quite as dominant on defense as they have been in some recent seasons, but they still have the #2 ranked defense in the SEC. The Wildcats are playing at a slightly slower than average tempo.

Florida is a good team, but they have been disappointing on the whole this year. They need a big win. Kentucky and Florida don't like each other and I see another strong defensive game that is played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher.

Indiana State is good at controlling the pace. The Sycamores are 313th in average possession length in the country. Missouri State has sped up this year, but Indiana State did a nice job slowing them down in both regular season meetings.

Both teams have a FTA/FGA of less than 30% so a foul fest doesn't look likely unless we get a ref show.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Dons and Loyola Marymount Lions just played a game to 136 points where both teams shot the ball far better than normal. Now they go play on a neutral court in a win or go home scenario. I think the defenses will be better and the pace will stay very slow.

San Francisco has gradually slowed their tempo throughout the year, and Marymount is one of the 10 slowest paced teams in the country. The first meeting between these two was 61-53 and played to a pace of just 57 possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel has been a bit of a different team than they were in past seasons. The Citadel still plays very quickly, but they have been far less efficient on offense this season. They are 313th in offensive efficiency last year. They were 134th last season. 

Wofford rated 4th in the Southern Conference in defensive efficiency. Wofford also ranked ninth in overall tempo. They'll work to slow this game down. 

This is a neutral site game and it is the first game of the conference tournament for both of these teams. Neutral site games with a favorite of 6 points or more and a total of 131.5 or higher have gone 56.9% to the under since 2005. 

I'll look for Wofford to get a lead here and keep things under control.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher.

Loyola is a defense first team, and Valpo is a poor shooting team who struggles to get to the free throw line.

Valpo struggled badly shooting it last night against lowly Evansville, and now they must play the best defense in the conference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has seen a bunch of very low scoring games over the last few years. Enterprise Center is arguably the best under gym in the country. These teams aren't accustomed to playing in such a big venue.

Bradley has been good on offense down the stretch, but the Braves were inconsistent away from home on offense. 

Southern Illinois works very hard to slow the game down. This is an afternoon tip time during the week and it is both teams first game at Arch Madness in St. Louis. 

Look for a slow pace here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* In Portland State's last 13 games, the over has cashed on this number (154) 10 times. The under has cashed only twice. There was one tie. Portland State has sped up their tempo as the season has gone on, and their offense has become much more efficient.

Portland State has scored 87 points or more in four straight games. The Vikings have only scored less than 81 points once in their last nine games. 

Northern Arizona's offense is much more efficient this year than it was last year. 

The last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished with 157, 197, and 166 total points.

This is a late season regular game in the Big Sky Conference, where very little defense is played. Both teams should get a lot of second chance points here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers host the Wichita State Shockers in a game between two teams who are on the bubble. Both teams need this game. Late in the regular season I like to look for games between two teams who have a lot to play for if I am taking unders. That is the case in this game.

Memphis is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wichita State is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. These teams are 216th and 120th in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams do a good job protecting the basket. Neither team has been particularly good at shooting the 3 point shot either.

I expect some solid defense to be played here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is this one. Enterprise Center hosts this tournament and it is a great under venue. 

Drake and Illinois State played two very different games against each other this year. The first game was a 84-74 high scoring contest. The second game was recently and it was a low scoring 57-53 game. 

In the second game, Illinois State played zone most of the game. Drake struggled badly with that zone defense. While I'm not sure Illinois State will play zone all the time here, they would be crazy not to play zone at least part of the contest. 

Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. With a tough shooting backdrop and in a one and done game, I have to take my chances here. Could they shoot lights out? Of course. The past numbers of this arena though show that taking an under like this is a long term + expected value proposition.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a first round game in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. This is played at a neutral site. Neutral site games definitely lean toward the under and with this game meaning so much to both teams the tempo should be a bit slower than their average games.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished at 112 points and 129 points. Both games were played at a pretty slow pace. Both of these teams are playing slightly slower than they did a year ago, and both teams are better on defense than a year ago. 

In the last four meetings between these two teams, there hasn't been a game that has finished above 135 points. Now, they are playing a game that means a lot more to both teams than a regular season contest does.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* USF has been a really good under team this year. In AAC play, the under is 11-5 on this very low number in USF contests. The under is actually 8-8 on this number in Cincinnati games as well. 

The Bearcats are right on the bubble and clearly have a lot to play for in this contest. USF has allowed 62 points or less in regulation in five straight home contests. The Bulls defense has been strong all year.

Cincinnati has been good defensively of late. The Bearcats rank 25th in the nation in effective field goal percentage on the year. 

Both of these teams have had trouble with turnovers this year. I would expect a lot of wasted possessions and sloppy play here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions offense ranks 353rd in efficiency out of 353 teams in the country. They have been an under machine. Pine Bluff has failed to score more than 54 points in seven of their last nine games. 

Jackson State is 331st in offensive efficiency in the country, so they aren't very good on that end of the floor either.

The two teams are 200th and 199th in defensive efficiency so they are much more respectable on the defensive end.

The first game between these two was 49-45. This will likely be higher than that game, but this number has been bet up so much that I have to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Late in the season when two good teams meet with a lot at stake, the under is the way I have to lean to begin with. In this case, there is a lot on the line. Cincinnati is a bubble team and this is a huge game for them. Houston wants revenge after they blew a late lead at Cincinnati in the meeting earlier this year. 

Additionally, both of these teams have four losses in the American Athletic Conference, and they are tied in the loss column with Tulsa at the top of the league. This game will go a long way toward deciding who wins the AAC regular season title.

Houston has been great on defense of late. They have consistently had very low scoring games. The Cougars have had only one game go over this total in regulation in their last 13 games. That one game (Tulane) went over the total by one point. 11 of the 13 games have been 128 points or less in regulation.

Look for solid defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans and Maryland Terrapins meet in a huge game for both teams. Michigan State still has an outside chance of winning the Big Ten, but they absolutely have to win this game. Maryland has been great of late, and the Terrapins have been most impressive on the defensive end.

The first meeting between these two teams saw a game with only 64 possessions. The final in that one was 67-60. 

Late season games between two very good teams have been strong to the under in the past 10-15 years. This is angle that has been very profitable for me, and it fits this game nicely.

Look for plenty of effort on defense here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Loyola Marymount is using 21.1 seconds on an average possession. That is some next level stalling. Their games have consistently been very low scoring. 

After starting the season really pushing the pace, San Francisco has slowed down quite a bit in recent weeks. The Dons let Loyola Marymount control the pace in the first meeting. It was a crawling speed of 57 possessions and finished 61-53. 

I don't see this pace being much faster. 

San Francisco has been elite in the league in 2 point defense. The way to beat them is making shots from outside. That isn't Loyola Marymount's game though. 

Look for a low scoring game with a very slow pace.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Wyoming has drastically increased their tempo in the last seven contests. They were stalling for a long time throughout the season, but they have nothing to lose now and are pushing the pace much more.

Wyoming has played all 7 of their last 7 games to a pace of 70 possessions. That really stands out when you realize that this team was averaging about 64 possessions per game before this recent stretch.

Fresno State and Wyoming have little to play for here, and that generally leads to less defense and a quicker pace.

Wyoming hasn't had a game go under this number in their last seven games. Fresno State has seen 10 straight games get over this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two was 107-80. Pepperdine's transition defense is weak and BYU can take advantage. Pepperdine also struggles defending the 3 ball, and no one in the country is better from long range than BYU.

Pepperdine likes to push the pace, and BYU has sped up their tempo as the season has moved along. There's no reason to expect anything other than a track meet here. 

This number has dropped to a level where I have to play the over in this contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Illinois Leathernecks (great name) have allowed 85 points or more in four straight games. They have allowed 83 points or more in 7 of their last 10 contests. Western Illinois is 348th out of 353 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are allowing a ridiculous 1.158 points per possession in Summit League play. 

Denver is first in the league in tempo. The Pioneers are giving up 1.099 points per possession in league play too, so these are two bad defenses. 

These two teams rank first and third in the league in overall tempo. 

This game means nothing to this teams. Both teams have been terrible all year (both 2-13 in the league). These late season games between two bad teams have been good for over bettors in the long term.

The first meeting between these two finished with 166 points.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* This is the final regular season for both of these teams. North Alabama has picked up their tempo considerably late in the season. North Alabama is first in the Atlantic Sun in average possession length. As quick as they have been playing this is a very low total.

North Alabama has been over this total in 9 of their last 10 games. The first game between these two teams was played at a fast paced 71 possessions. 

This is a questionable motivation game for both teams. That is a clear positive for the over. 

I had this game several points higher than this number. 

Take the over. 

*I would play this for 5 stars up to 129 and for 4 stars above that* 

*3 Star Play Under* The final score in the last three meetings between these two teams are as follows: 60-42, 63-56, and 62-50. All three of those games were played at a pace of 59 possessions or fewer. That's about as slow as you'll ever see. I don't see any reason to expect anything different here. 

Loyola Marymount has slowed things down to a crawl in recent weeks. They are using 21.4 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. 

Pacific's defensive improvement this year is drastic. The Tigers were 320th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 117th this year.

Look for a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams rank near the top of the list in second chance point opportunities, and both of these defenses rank near the bottom of second chance opportunities allowed. If we go back and look at the first meeting between these two one thing really stands out. Idaho State had 21 offensive rebounds. Portland State had 19 offensive rebounds. That's about as many offensive rebounds in one game as you will ever see.

Portland State presses and looks to get quick points off their steals from pressure, and Idaho State turns the ball over a lot. 

Portland State has been able to dictate tempo very well of late. Portland State has scored 81 points or more in six of their last seven contests overall.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams played to an extremely slow pace of just 61 possessions. The final score was 58-53. This one likely won't be that low, but I do think this total is set too high.

St. Peter's is tied at the top of the MAAC, and they certainly should be ready to go in this one. The Peacocks defense is the main reason they are at the top of the standings. St. Peter's has allowed just 54 points per game in their last three games.

St. Peter's turns the ball over too much on offense to be all that efficient. Niagara doesn't generate hardly any second chance points.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were without both Mylik Wilson and Trajan Wesley for a significant amount of time this year. In their games without these guys they clearly slowed the pace down because they were shorthanded. Since the Ragin' Cajuns have gotten healthier they are back to playing at a very fast pace.

Louisiana has played six straight games to a pace of 70 possessions or quicker. Their last five games have finished with 153 points or more.

Arkansas State is great at getting to the line. The Red Wolves rank first in the country in FTA/FGA. Arkansas State ranks last in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. Arkansas State has seen 159 points or more in three of their last six games. 

I'll look for the recent trend of Louisiana high scoring games to continue here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a low total, but it is low for a reason. Fordham has seen 10 of their 14 games in the conference stay under this number. They are the worst offense in the Atlantic 10 by a mile. 

Fordham is averaging only 0.821 points per possession. The Rams are using 20.1 seconds of the shot clock on average. They are the slowest paced team in the Atlantic 10. 

Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in defensive efficiency. They have held several teams to below 0.8 points per possession already this year. The Rams are capable of holding Fordham to a very low number here.

Rhode Island plays St. Louis and Dayton in their next two after this one. They may have less incentive to keep their foot on the gas late in this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags play at the slowest pace of any team in the MAAC, and it isn't even close. Fairfield plays two possessions per game slower than anyone else in the league. They are using more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession. 

Fairfield is averaging a terrible 0.891 points per possession in MAAC play. This is a team who turns it over a lot and shoots the ball poorly.

Siena was playing pretty quick earlier this year, but they are down to 9th out of 11 teams in the MAAC in tempo. The Saints have given up 49 and 52 points in two of their last four games. This team has been getting better defensively. They are about to play a really weak Fairfield offense.

The first game between these two finished at 114 points. The shooting numbers were just a tick lower than average. Even if you normalize the shooting numbers, you'd come up with a number in the low 120's. 

Fairfield has had 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. In fact, those 7 games have all finished at 121 points or less.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks and Arizona Wildcats square off in a game that could decide the Pac 12. Both of these teams have proven they have a high upside. Still, neither team has been all that consistent.

Oregon has been slowing the tempo down in recent weeks. The Ducks have been far less efficient shooting the ball in their last few contests as well. Pritchard is having to do too much.

Arizona is a good defensive team, and they have played to the pace of their opponent of late. 

In the first game between these two, the score was 66-66 before going into overtime.

This is a late season game between two very good teams who have a lot to play for. I tend to lean under in those spots, and here I think the under is a good value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats didn't play up to expectations earlier this year. Why? Their defense wasn't as good as normal. They have fixed that problem quite nicely in recent weeks. Texas State has allowed 66 points or less in 12 straight games though, and they are elite at forcing turnovers. Georgia State is a good team, but turnovers is a relative weakness for them.

Georgia State is first in the Sun Belt in effective field goal percentage defense. Texas State is first in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. 

Texas State let Georgia State get their preferred tempo too much in the first game. Look for the Bobcats to fight harder to slow this game down. They are at home and are favored here. 

Both of these teams still have a chance to win the Sun Belt, so this is a very important contest for both teams.

Take the under.