*4 Star Play Over* The Northeastern Huskies are very efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th in effective field goal percentage offense in the country (353 teams). The Huskies scored 73 and 72 points on Towson last year. Towson is a similar defense as they were a year ago.

Towson has improved on offense compared to a year ago. The Tigers were 255th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 147th so far this year. 

Northeastern was 151st in defensive efficiency a year ago. So far this year the Huskies are an ugly 258th in defensive efficiency. That is despite playing the 289th toughest slate (very weak) of offenses.

This total has been set a few points short.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved up some since it was selected Friday evening. I would rate this a 4 star play up to 134.5 and a 3 star play up to 136* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers push the tempo. Georgia State ranks 39th in overall tempo so far this year. Georgia State is shooting 39.9% from 3 point range as well. The Panthers have a lot of good spot up shooting options.

SMU is much better now that Kendric Davis was cleared to play. Davis is probably the best player on the team. He started at TCU and transferred over here. Davis is 20/20 from the free throw line thus far, and he is both capable of scoring and facilitating for others. 

Georgia State has a glaring weakness on the defensive glass. They rank 330th in defensive rebounding percentage. That is a bad weakness to have against SMU. SMU is 8th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. How bad is Georgia State on the defensive glass? Duke got 30 offensive rebounds against them! Georgetown also racked up 20 offensive boards against Georgia State. SMU ranks almost exactly tied with both of them in offensive rebounding percentage. Look for a lot of second chance opportunities and trips to the line. SMU is shooting 77.8% from the free throw line.

Georgia State should be able to hang in this game, and I could see this one being a foul fest late because of the margin.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets aren't the same team without guard Jose Alvarado. Alvarado is the engine that runs this offense. Without him, Georgia Tech is getting some terrible looks offensively. Georgia Tech has scored 53 and 47 points in their last two games. The Yellow Jackets were embarrassed in their last game at home against Ball State. I think Georgia Tech likely shows up with a strong defensive effort here (they are 24th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation), but this offense is very weak.

Boise State doesn't foul much at all, and they don't give up many second chance opportunities to opponents. The Broncos offense has been very inconsistent this year.

This game is played on a neutral court at the Stan Sherrif Center in Hawaii. This has been a pretty good under gym in the long run.

I had this one a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers rank 342nd in the nation in tempo. Duquesne is 286th in average possession length. This should be a game played at an extremely slow pace. 

UAB ranks 269th in effective field goal percentage, and that is despite playing a weak slate of defenses so far this year. The Blazers rely on offensive rebounds, and Duquesne is 38th in defensive rebounding.

Both of these teams have been excellent at defending without fouling. 

This game is played on a neutral court which is a positive for unders.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game where BYU is a huge favorite. BYU has shown the tendency to be happy to slow down a game with a big lead. They are likely to have a large lead here and that should help us.

Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said he wanted to completely change the style of play for his team this year. They were in the top 20 in tempo last year. He didn't like them playing that fast. Weber State has slowed all the way down to 282nd this year. They are trying to play only in the halfcourt.

Unders with a large spread and a total that isn't low have been strong in the past decade. We'll take one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys rank 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have really played some shutdown defense so far this year. Oklahoma State has played the 46th toughest slate of offenses, so it isn't from them just locking down bad offenses. This Cowboys team is playing some really good defense, and they are mixing up some man and zone defenses.

Minnesota is a solid 68th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 25th toughest slate of offenses in the country so far this year. The Golden Gophers are 261st out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. They are playing quite a bit slower without Amir Coffey in the backcourt pushing the pace this year. Minnesota is looking to win games in the halfcourt more often than not.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under. Both of these defenses have been far more consistent than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coach Richie Riley has talked about wanting his team to play quicker. Against Coastal Carolina, they'll get their chance to speed up the tempo. Coastal Carolina is averaging playing at a blistering pace of 76 possessions in their last five games. The Chanticleers want to run early and often.

Coastal Carolina has had some trouble with teams who are good at forcing turnovers, but South Alabama ranks in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in forced turnover percentage. Coastal Carolina excels at getting second chance points, and South Alabama is weak on the defensive boards. 

Both of these teams have been getting to the line frequently, and both teams shoot the ball well from the free throw line. This should be a tight game, and overtime and a foul fest are both real possibilities.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners push the pace as much as they can. UTSA ranks 35th in the nation in tempo. UTSA is 143rd in offensive efficiency, but they are only 289th in defensive efficiency. UTSA has had 7 of their 11 games finish at 151 points or higher so far this year.

Illinois State is a rare team from the MVC who wants to push the pace. Illinois State does use a zone defense at times, but UTSA has been great against the zone defense.

I have this number at 150 and strongly leaned to the over last night, with the line drop I'm taking the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears slow the game down. Missouri State looks to use the shot clock up and then execute their play in the last 10 or 12 seconds of the shot clock. Part of the reason they play this way is because this team has had so much trouble with turnovers offensively. Even playing slower, they rank 327th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. The Bears play slow and they aren't all that efficient because of their turnovers.

Oral Roberts has tended to try to speed the game up when they are playing against weaker opponents. They have had some very high scores this year, but those have been against the likes of Houston Baptist and Chicago State. Those are two of the very fastest (Houston Baptist is the fastest) paced teams in the country, and they are both bad at defense. 

Missouri State has slowed down the pace against LSU and Buffalo already this year. I think they'll get the pace they want here as well.

I had this game lined at 133, so I'm happy to grab the under at this price.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have completely changed the way they play this year. Give Brad Underwood credit for realizing that their previous aggressive style of trapping teams for the whole shot clock was getting them in too much foul trouble and giving up too many easy looks by the bucket. 

Underwood picked up a huge recruit in 7'0 290 lbs Kofi Cockburn. He is a presence in the lane on defense and the Fighting Illini are relying on him heavily. Illinois ranked 338th (15th worst) in the country in fouls committed last year. They have committed the fewest fouls per field goal attempt this year of anyone in the country. 

Illinois ranked 52nd in tempo last year, but they are all the way down to 198th this year. Missouri always wants to play slow. The Tigers are 280th in tempo.

Missouri has only had one game all season go over this total. The Tigers are excellent on defense, but their shooting percentages are ugly.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot on offense.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Morehead State has played 11 games so far this year. Only 3 of those have gone past 136 points total. In fact, five of their games have finished at 124 points or lower already this year. Morehead State ranks 297th in offensive efficiency in the country. The Eagles are shooting only 59.4% from the free throw line. Morehead State also plays slowly (272nd in average possession length out of 353). 

Ohio is 303rd in average possession length, so they tend to move even slower than Morehead State. The Bobcats are the better team, and they will likely win this game. Ohio has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year, and they still have above average defensive numbers on the season.

I think this one stays in the low 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen rank as the second slowest paced team in the country so far this year. They have only been faster than the Virginia Cavaliers. In eight games against Division I opponents, Navy has played four games that have finished at 105 points or less in regulation. Mount St. Mary's has been held to 51 points or fewer three times already this year. 

Mt. St. Mary's is 316th in overall tempo, so they aren't likely to try to push the issue here either. While their defensive numbers don't look great, they have faced a schedule of strong offenses thus far and have clearly improved defensively from a year ago.

Navy is 316th in effective field goal percentage offense. Mt. St. Mary's is 318th in that same statistic. I wouldn't expect good shooting numbers here.

With a slow pace and two weak offenses, I expect to see a very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a lot of talent this year. Coastal Carolina's DeVante Jones is a sensational sophomore who can score in bunches. Coastal Carolina has scored 90 points or more in four straight games coming into this one. The Chanticleers are 110th in tempo in the nation. 

Scott Cross is the new coach at Troy, and Cross has always been a guy who wants his teams to play quickly. Troy slowed things down last year, but they are beginning to play a little quicker under Cross this season. 

These defenses are very weak. Coastal Carolina ranks 255th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 273rd toughest slate of offenses (weak schedule). Troy ranks 287th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 282nd toughest slate of offenses.

Two bad defenses and two teams who prefer to play uptempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Toyota Center which is a huge venue and it is has been a great under venue. The under is 10-4 in the last 14 games played here. 

Utah State's defense got a huge boost with Neemas Queta returning to the lineup. The Aggies look amazing on offense so far this year. They are clearly good on offense, but they have played the 46th easiest slate of defenses thus far. They face an excellent USF defense here.

USF is third in the nation in forced turnover percentage. This team is 68th in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are 301st in the nation in overall tempo. USF has had 7 of their 10 games finish at 124 points or lower this season.

On a neutral floor that has been tough for shooters, I like value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UIC has ranked in the top 68 in the country in tempo in each of the last three seasons. The Flames started the season playing very slow this year, but they have had a couple very fast paced games recently. 

Illinois State is playing fairly quick as well. The Redbirds have also been far more efficient on offense this year, and they have been worse on defense this year than the last few seasons.

Four of UIC's last five games have finished with a tempo of at least 73 possessions. This is an extremely low total considering the pace this game should be played at. The spread here is at a fouling distance and that is helpful as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes play at a very slow pace under Coach John Dunne. Marist was 323rd in overall tempo last year. They are 343rd (out of 353) in overall tempo this year. Marist was solid offensively last year, but they are very weak on the offensive end this season. The Red Foxes went from 102nd last year to 314th this year in effective field goal percentage offense. They very rarely get offensive rebounds. They also draw very few fouls, and when they do get to the line they shoot free throws at a horrible 58.6% clip.

The New Hampshire Wildcats were 353rd out of 353 teams in the nation last year in offensive efficiency. They have improved to a measly 311th this year. New Hampshire though has played the 23rd easiest slate of defenses in the country so far this year. 

Marist and New Hampshire played last year and the final was 58-49. 

Marist has only had 2 of their first 7 games go over this number in regulation. Additionally, 4 of their 7 games have finished at 114 total points or less.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves are 19th in the nation in average length of possession (least amount of shot clock used). Pepperdine has wanted to go fast all year, and they have done a nice job of forcing teams to play their style.

Portland State wants to play extremely fast under Coach Peery. The Vikings are 81st in average length of possession. Portland State uses a full court press often to try to get steals and quick buckets. 

Both of these teams give up all kinds of second chance points. Look for there to be a lot of extra shots at the hoop from offensive rebounds in this one. These teams rank 300th in defensive rebounding and 322nd.

Pepperdine stands out as the top free throw shooting team in the country. That's important for a couple reasons. First, Portland State fouls a bunch because they press so much. The Vikings fouled about as much as anyone in the country the last two seasons. Second, Pepperdine is favored here by 8 points. If the Waves are up by single digits late, we could see a lot of points late in the game from the foul fest scenario. Pepperdine's 4 best players all shoot at least 83% from the free throw line.

This should be a track meet. Barring some ugly shooting numbers I think this one gets into the upper 160's at a minimum.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I waited for this line to drop and it did. We have seen a two point drop from last night. Stetson has been a good under team and UNC Asheville has been a good over team this year. 

UNC Asheville is favored here, and I do think they are the better team. Asheville does a great job forcing the tempo. They are 37th in the nation in overall pace of play. Asheville has several good scoring options especially at the guard positions. 

UNC Asheville's defense is terrible. They rank 350th in the nation (353 teams) in effective field goal percentage defense. Stetson's defense isn't much better. Stetson ranks 289th in effective field goal percentage defense and an ugly 342nd in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have gotten a lot of offensive rebounds this year, and I would expect a lot of putback opportunities and free throw attempts.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers were 106th in average possession length last year. They are 305th so far this year. A significant slowdown by Pitt. They are now playing in the halfcourt and winning with their strong defense. Coach Capel has done a good job getting this team to buy into his defensive system. Pitt ranks 61st in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Northern Illinois lost Levi Bradley and Dante Thorpe from last year's team, and those were their best play makers on offense. The Huskies were 86th in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 217th in offensive efficiency so far this year. That is despite the fact they have played the 309th toughest slate of defenses (very weak) so far this season. 

Both teams are clearly better on defense than offense. Both teams want to play slowly. Northern Illinois has seen 6 of their 9 games against Division I opponents finish below this posted total. Pitt has seen 6 of their 10 stay under this number.

The number has risen to the point that I have to bet the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes have been pretty impressive so far this year. Kent is clearly much better on the defensive end than they were last year. They also look much better on offense, but I don't think that part will continue. Kent State is 86th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they have faced the 26th easiest schedule of defenses in the country (out of 353). They have only faced one team (Ohio State) in the top 150 in effective field goal percentage defense. 
UC Irvine is 27th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Anteaters always work very hard on defense for coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine tends to prefer to slow the game down a bit as well.
Kent State's defense has given everyone they have played this year quite a bit of trouble. They were actually tied with Ohio State with 10:30 left in the game before Ohio State went on a big run to close the game.
This game is played at a neutral site (El Paso Texas). This is at altitude and neither of these teams are accustomed to playing in these conditions.
Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have played an extremely easy schedule so far this year. Liberty hasn't played a single team all year ranked in the top 170 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. That changes here against Vanderbilt. The Commodores rank 11th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Vanderbilt has also done their best to push the tempo. The Commodores rank 120th in the country in pace. This is an extremely low total for a game with one team who plays quickly.

Liberty's offense ranks 45th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Flames have been able to get to the free throw line at the 11th highest rate of any team in the country. Liberty has multiple good shooters on the floor at all times.

Vanderbilt has only had one game finish under 137 points in regulation this year. This total has been bet down to the point where I see value on the over. Last year when these two teams met the final total was 149 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank as the fastest paced team in the country (out of 353 teams) when it comes to average possession length. Green Bay has played a bunch of teams who try to slow the game down so far this year. Green Bay has played only one team who ranks in the top half of teams in the country in tempo this year. That was their game against New Mexico that was played to a ridiculous pace of 87 possessions.

Evansville ranks 62nd in average possession length, and I don't expect them to try to slow the game down. The Purple Aces have been doing a good job spreading the floor and getting open looks for their outside shooters.

Green Bay is much improved offensively, and they are much worse defensively this year. The Phoenix rank 347th in the nation out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. This kind of defense combined with the tempo they play will make for some extremely high scoring games. Six of their last nine games have gone over this total.

Look for an extremely fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks are really buying into Eric Musselman's defensive system so far this year. Musselman wanted to instill a defensive philosophy first with this program and thus far it has worked out nicely. 

Arkansas ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Razorbacks have allowed more than 61 points only once all season! 

Tulsa plays a lot of zone defense and slows down the pace. Tulsa lost their playmakers on offense from last year, and their efficiency on that end of the floor won't be very good this season. 

Tulsa is 34th in effective field goal percentage defense on the season. This is a team that has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 58 points or less.

Look for open shots to be difficult to come by in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are similar teams. Both of them lost their top scoring options from last year. These are two teams led by a coach that is defensive-minded. Last year, both of these teams were better on offense than they have been in any recent year. Neither of them will be as good on offense this year. 

Kansas State isn't even close to the same on offense without Dean Wade, Barry Brown, and Kamau Stokes. The Wildcats have played a very weak schedule this year so far, but they are still only 183rd in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Mississippi State has yet to play a team in the top 75 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Kansas State is 18th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Bulldogs are without their top bucket getters (Weatherspoon and Peters) from last year as well.

I would expect a slow pace when these two meet. This game is also played at a neutral site, and it starts at 11:30 am eastern. Those are positives for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs used 17.0 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 19.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. This team has far less offensive talent this year, especially at the guard positions. Head Coach Justin Hutson uses a full court press quite a bit to try to slow the game down. It is a zone press that controls the tempo. 

Cal is playing much slower under new coach Mark Fox. Fox is definitely a defensive-minded coach. Cal has knocked down a lot of 3's so far this year, but they have played the 205th toughest slate of defenses on the season. Fresno State's defense should give them trouble. 

With neither team looking to run and both teams short on offensive weapons, I think this one stays low scoring. With the move up today, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina State Bulldogs have more offensive ability than they did a year ago. South Carolina State has Tashombe Riley back in the fold this year, and he put up 20 points in their win over Presbyterian last game. They also have a couple good low post scorers in Applewhite and Kinard. 

South Carolina State has ugly offensive numbers thus far, but they have faced three teams in the top 33 in effective field goal percentage offense according to KenPom (Memphis, Liberty, and Tulsa). Now, they face a UNC Asheville team who ranks 351st in effective field goal percentage defense. 

UNC Asheville can't play defense, but they are forcing the issue and they can score. They were 350th in tempo last year, but are 66th in tempo so far this year. Asheville is good at getting to the basket and the SC State defense has ranked 340th or worse in 2 point field goal percentage defense in three straight years! 

Also important is the fact that both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. There should be a lot of second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen take on the Yale Bulldogs here. UMass lost their star scorer from a year ago in Pipkins. This is a UMass offense that I believe will have some trouble scoring against top defenses this year. They just don't have enough scoring options. Yale ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Yale is controlling the tempo this year. They are 274th in tempo overall and 318th in average possession length. They will look to slow this game down. 

Rutgers was able to hold UMass to 57 points, and the Yale defense ranks better than them overall. 

Yale's offensive efficiency has dropped quite a bit from last year. They lost their top two offensive players from last season. UMass has more athleticism and should gradually improve on defense this year. 

I lined this game a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played 10 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. This is a team with a lot of offensive weaknesses, but they are very strong defensively. Little Rock has faced the 97th toughest schedule of offenses this year, and they are still ranked 113th in defensive efficiency. That's excellent for a Sun Belt level team. 

Little Rock is 253rd in offensive efficiency. The Trojans are 341st in turnover percentage. An alarming 24.9% of their offensive possessions end in a turnover. 

Tennessee State ranks 340th in turnover percentage on offense. The Tigers have seen 24.8% of their offensive possessions end in turnovers. The Tigers haven't played good defenses this year, and this is a big test for their offense. 

Little Rock has slowed their pace down drastically this year. The Trojans were 55th in pace of play last year, but they are 260th so far this year. I think they are the better team and I expect them to control the tempo. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have an excellent defense. Louisville has only allowed more than 62 points once in their last eight games. They have held their last two opponents (Michigan and Pittsburgh) to 43 and 46 points. This is a Cardinals team with all kinds of athleticism, and opponents just aren't getting clean looks at the hoop against them. Louisville ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.853 points per possession. 

Texas Tech is always going to be a defense first team as long as Chris Beard is their coach. Beard is a tremendous coach, and he gets his players to buy into this defensive system. If you don't work extremely hard on defense, you won't see the floor on his team. Texas Tech is 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

Texas Tech's offensive numbers aren't very good this year, and they have played one of the 25 easiest slates of defenses on the year. They face an elite defense in this one.

Jahmius Ramsey is questionable with an injury for the Red Raiders, and he is key to their offense. 

This game is played at Madison Square Garden. There isn't a more proven under arena in all of college basketball. The shooting backdrop is tough here, and the under has dominated in games at MSG.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls haven't played a game higher than 145 points all year. In fact, all but one of their games has finished with 135 points or less. Temple's new coach Aaron McKie said from day one this team was going to be all about defense. So far, he has been right. Temple is 19th in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. They were 164th last season. 

St. Joe's is missing Taylor Funk (out with an injury) more than I thought they would. Funk averaged 9.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Ryan Daly has to do too much without Funk in the lineup. Daly has 23, 25, and 32 points in the three games since Funk was injured. Daly is a pretty good scorer, but he isn't a guy you would want carrying your team all the time. There just isn't a good second option for St. Joe's. I think Temple's excellent defense will key in on Daly and make things difficult for him.

St. Joe's has been extremely inefficient in three straight games. Those games were against three teams that rank as average or worse in effective field goal percentage defense. Temple is elite on defense. The Hawks should have a hard time scoring.

Temple's offense ranks 297th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Owls have scored more than 70 points only once this year. They'll likely top 70 here, but they aren't usually efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa State Cyclones rank 12th in the nation in quickest tempo based on their average possession length. Iowa State is averaging 73.6 possessions in their games. Seton Hall is 95th in pace of play. They are averaging 71.3 possessions in their games. 

These two teams just met on a neutral site and the final was 84-76 Seton Hall. That game was played on a floor that is a tough gym for shooters. There were only 24 free throws total in that game. 

This game should be played at a very quick pace again. This is at a normal location and the total is slightly lower than it was before. That makes little sense because they cleared the number before and played to a 74 possession pace. I expect a similar pace and this one should go over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies are 340th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They now play an excellent Texas Longhorns defense. Texas is 41st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is a solid 78th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have struggled at times with turnovers on the offensive end. I would expect a pretty sloppy game here.

This game is played on a neutral court which is helpful for the under. I strongly considered playing this one last night, and now the line has risen by 1.5 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks want to run whenever they have the chance. South Carolina is 24th quickest out of 353 teams in the country when it comes to average possession length. The Gamecocks can sometimes struggle from the floor, but they excel at getting to the line. Houston fouls a lot because they are so aggressive on defense. 

Houston is 110th in average possession length so they are playing pretty fast as well. The Cougars have played four teams who try to stall in their first six opponents. Against both Rice and Houston Baptist they were happy to turn the game into a track meet. 

Both teams excel at getting second chance opportunities. Both teams are also great at getting to the line. Both defenses foul a lot.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Yale is excellent defensively this year. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They have played in consistently low scoring games this year. Yale hasn't had a game higher than 144 points in regulation, which shows their games totals upside is limited. Yale has played 7 of 10 games so far this year under this total. In fact, 6 of their 10 games have finished with 124 points or less. 

Yale is doing a great job controlling the tempo this year. The Bulldogs rank 315th in average possession length this season. Yale is forcing opponents to play their style of basketball and that is allowing them to win with defense.

Lehigh was a fast paced team the last couple years, but they are playing much slower this year. Lehigh ranks 262nd out of 353 in average possession length. Lehigh lost their two best players from last year and their offense has been really inefficient this year. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass. Neither team has gotten to the line much this season.

I had this game several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs have decided to play a completely different style of play this year. The Bulldogs stalled last year because they didn't have enough depth or talent. Asheville's coach Mike Morrell said before the year they would look to push the pace this year. They have the guard quickness and much improved depth to do it. They have definitely been running. Asheville ranks 64th in overall tempo so far this year. They have only scored less than 79 points in one game (against Tennessee). 

Western Carolina ranks 62nd in overall tempo. The Catamounts ranked 335th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have improved some this year, but they have played a bunch of weak offensive teams. I think Asheville's offense will really test them here.

Asheville's defense is terrible. The Bulldogs are 350th out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. Western Carolina is pretty efficient offensively and they should be able to take advantage.

Both teams get to the line a lot and foul a lot. Both teams also get a lot of second chance opportunities on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped to where I have value on the over. I considered this one last night, and the line has dropped quite a bit. Both of these teams are very efficient on offense. Northeastern's motion offense under Coen is tremendous. Davidson's offense under McKillop is very strong as well. These are two coaches many other coaches try to copy on the offensive end because they have run such good offense for years.

Davidson is mediocre defensively and Northeastern is bad on defense. Both teams should get open looks here. 

The spread is 1.5 and overtime is always possible in a spot like this as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks rank 15th in the nation in overall pace of play. They are moving extremely quickly under first year coach Billy Lange. St. Joe's is extremely bad on the defensive end though. The Hawks allowed 82 points against a weak offense in Old Dominion. They allowed 79 points against St. Francis (PA). They allowed 94 points against Lafayette. They allowed 85 points against Loyola Chicago. They now must take on the best offense they have faced this year. Villanova is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Villanova shoots 40.2% from 3 point range. They should get a lot of open looks against a St. Joe's defense that ranks 343rd out of 353 in the nation in 3 point defense. Villanova is 90th in average possession length this year. They have sped up in a big way. If they want to play fast this is a great opportunity for them to do that. Villanova has scored 97 and 98 points already this year. Expect another big number here.

St. Joe's gets up a lot of 3's, and Nova hasn't been good at guarding beyond the arc. Look for the Hawks to find some open looks from long range.

The tempo here should be extremely quick.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas rank 4th in the nation in tempo so far this year. Central Michigan has consistently wanted to push the tempo over the past few seasons. This team will do the same again this season. The Chippewas have scored over 100 points in four games already this year. It wouldn't be stunning if they scored 100 here either. 

Tennessee Martin ranks 353rd out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. They rank 353rd in effective field goal percentage defense as well. They are consistently terrible too. Martin was 351st in that category last year as well. This is an awful defense. 

UT Martin doesn't turn the ball over much. They are also great on the offensive glass. They'll get second chance points against a Central Michigan team that has been very weak on the defensive boards in recent seasons. Central Michigan also ranks in the top 75 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. UT Martin is weak on the defensive glass. A lot of second chance points for both teams.

I don't normally take overs this high, but my number is several points higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said before this season that he felt he tried to do something he just wasn't comfortable with last year when he had his team push the pace to the extreme. They are going back to slowing things down this year. The oddsmakers are trying to adjust, but I don't think this number is low enough.

Weber State has been unfortunate on defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 82% from the free throw line against them. Opponents are also shooting 44.1% from long range. They have played some good shooting teams early in the year. These numbers can't be sustained.

Utah Valley has struggled with offensive efficiency under Mark Madsen, but this team is working hard on the defensive end. They have already had four games finish at 130 points or less on the year. 

This is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have changed the way they play this year. Yale was a fast paced team who could score in bunches last year with Miye Oni and Alex Copeland leading the way. Yale lost those top two players from a year ago, and James Jones decided this season the Bulldogs needed to hang their hat on their strong defense. 

Yale ranks 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. The Bulldogs have held Penn State to 58 points. They also held Vermont to 52 points. Yale ranks 274th in overall tempo this year compared to 41st a year ago.

Albany has almost always preferred to play slowly under Coach Will Brown. Albany is again playing slower than average this year. Albany hasn't played a team ranked better than 121st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Yale ranks 6th and is far and away the best defense they have faced. 

Both Albany and Yale are good on the defensive glass and have done a nice job defending without fouling this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are coached by first year coach Jamion Christian. He coached at Siena last year where his team finished 353rd (last in the country) in average possession length. George Washington isn't playing quite that slow, but they are looking to slow things down. 

Boston University has typically played to the pace of their opponent. Boston University's defensive tendencies should help out here. They have been better at guarding the 3 point shot than the inside shots under Joe Jones, and George Washington settles for a lot of 3's. 

Both of these teams have been poor at getting offensive rebounds. There shouldn't be many second chance scoring opportunities here.

I think this one should be around 130.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs aren't the same team they were last year. Asheville had to stall and try to keep games as low scoring as possible last year. Mike Morell is in his second year on the job here, and he made it clear he wanted his team to play much faster this year. Asheville is deeper and has more offensive weapons than they did a year ago. Asheville is still very weak defensively though.

Charlotte generally likes to play slowly, but the 49ers have shot the ball better than a year ago. The 49ers shoot better than 78% from the free throw line, and that could be key here since Asheville ranks in the top 20 in the country in fouling. 

Look for their to be enough pace here to get this one over the number based on Asheville's new style of play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Valparaiso Crusaders were 304th in average possession length last year (out of 353 teams). Valpo was a bottom 50 tempo team thanks in large part due to all kinds of major injuries to their leading scorers a year ago. They had to slow down to stay in games.

Matt Lottich said before the season he wanted the Crusaders to play quicker. They have played much faster so far this year. Valpo is 56th out of 353 in average possession length this year. They played fast two years ago too, so it seems like this is a return to their old normal under Lottich. 

The Crusaders have yet to have a game this year finish under this number. Only one has finished below 143 points.

Eastern Michigan hasn't played against a team who ranks in the top 50% of the country in terms of pace all year thus far. That will change here. Eastern Michigan has been making a living at the free throw line on offense. The Eagles have had major trouble rebounding out of their matchup zone in the past. Valpo has been good on the offensive glass this year. 

With Valpo pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line a lot, I like the over at this low number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins were 11th in average possession length last year. They have been a really fast paced team for quite some time until this season. This year UCLA ranks 320th in average possession length. The Bruins have a new coach in Mick Cronin and he is working to install a completely different style of play.

UCLA has consistently played the slow pace this year, even when they are up against weaker opponents. The Bruins didn't even try to push the tempo against Chaminade in their recent trip to the Maui Invitational. 

UCLA has been hurt by teams who shoot the ball really well from outside. San Jose State is their opponent here, and San Jose State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. The Spartans are shooting 23.1% from 3 point range on the season. San Jose State relies heavily on getting second chances from their big men grabbing offensive rebounds. UCLA is a great defensive rebounding team.

San Jose State scored just 39 points against Arizona. The Spartans scored only 48 points against Oregon State.

UCLA should control this game and that should help the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders have picked up the pace in a big way so far this season. MTSU was 176th in average possession length last year. The Blue Raiders are 19th so far this season. They have yet to have a game played at anything less than 71 possessions. They are forcing the pace in a big way.

Belmont wants to run under new coach Casey Alexander. The Bruins have already played a game at 78 possessions and another at 80 possessions. Alexander is known as a tremendous offensive mind, and the Bruins should get a lot of open looks against a bad MTSU defense. 

MTSU allowed 93 points against Coastal Carolina. They also allowed 86 points against Tulane. Belmont is a better team than those two on the offensive end.

With both teams wanting to run and both offenses holding the advantage here, I expect to see a lot of points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes rank first in the nation in average possession length this year. The Dukes were 313th last year. Coach Rowe said before the season they were going to be much faster, and they have followed through with that tempo change in a big way.

East Carolina has yet to play a team that runs even close to as much as James Madison. In fact, East Carolina has played Liberty, Navy, and some other teams who play great defense and play very slowly. That has made their totals look pretty low heading into this game. That gives us some extra value here. The Pirates have typically played to the pace of their opponent.

Look for an up and down game where both teams score a lot. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Missouri State Redhawks lost several of their top offensive players from last year. The Redhawks rank 276th in offensive efficiency so far this year, and they have played two teams who rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is likely to struggle on offense. 

Cal State Fullerton lost their top two scorers from a year ago. Ahmad and Allman took more than half of the team's shots last year and they ran the offense and led the team. Fullerton always works hard on the defensive end for Coach Taylor, but they have been inconsistent on offense. They should be worse on offense this year now that their stars are gone. In their four games against Division I opponents, Fullerton has yet to top 60 points this season! 

This is a neutral site game which is a plus for the under. 

Look for some sloppy basketball between two teams who turn it over a lot and don't have great scoring options.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* New Mexico State is 347th in average length of possession (353 teams). The Aggies take a bunch of time off the shot clock. New Mexico State's first two games in this tournament have had 120 points in regulation and 110 points. They are up against George Mason, who is 284th in the nation in tempo. 

George Mason is 185th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 71st in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that is much better on defense than offense.

New Mexico State always ranks highly in defense as well.

This game is at a neutral site and both teams are playing for the 3rd straight day. A clear plus for the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have played every single one of their games under this posted total. The Tigers have an excellent defense and a weak offense. Missouri is also good at controlling the pace of the game.

Oklahoma likes to play quickly, but the Sooners can go through scoring droughts at times. On the other end, Oklahoma is excellent defensively. Oklahoma should make life very difficult for the Missouri offense.

This is a neutral site game and those have done excellent toward the under early in the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Hard Rock Riviera where the under is 27-14 in games played there. This is known as an under gym. Neutral site games early in the season have been good under bets in the long term. 

South Carolina does like to play fast, but they are far better on defense than offense. Wichita State works hard to slow down the tempo of the game. Wichita State is much better on defense than offense. 

4 of Wichita State's 5 games have stayed under this total, and none of those games have been on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Boston University and Northern Colorado prefer to play at a slow pace. Boston ranks 240th in overall tempo. Northern Colorado ranks 292nd in overall tempo. I wouldn't expect either team to be pushing pace here.

The Hard Rock Riviera in Mexico has been a really good under venue in the past. This is these teams first games in this facility, and I think that could lead to lower than average shooting numbers. 

Northern Colorado is a defense first team, and I would expect them to try to keep most of their games low scoring this year since they lost so much from last year. 

I think this is several points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies play at the 347th quickest tempo out of 353 teams. They'll work hard to slow the game down. They are also a very good defensive team. USF is an average paced team, but they turn the ball over a bunch on offense and force a bunch of turnovers on defense. They have consistently had very low scoring games.

USF has only had one game so far this year that has gone over this very low total. 

This game is played in the Cayman Islands at a gym that is noted to be good for the under.

I expect a low scoring game here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins are a completely different team than last year. Mick Cronin's style of play is far different than what this program has been accustomed to. Cronin is a defensive-minded coach who wants to slow the game down and win low scoring battles. UCLA has already played 4 of their 5 games under this posted total.

BYU has slowed their tempo down drastically so far this year too. They were 54th quickest in average possession length last year. They rank 229th so far this year. BYU has a new coach in Mark Pope also.

I think both defenses will put forth a good effort in this one. 

This is a neutral site game which is a clear positive for the under. Early season neutral site contests have been very strong in the past 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers meet at the Sprint Center in Kansas City tonight. Butler and Missouri are both teams who have a long history of wanting to slow the pace down and win low scoring games.

Missouri is a defensive-minded team under Coach Cuonzo Martin. They are 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. Butler ranks 29th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Missouri ranks 238th in pace (average possession length) and Butler ranks 336th. I would expect a very slow tempo in this game.

Missouri's contest against Xavier was 51-51 at the end of regulation. Butler's big game against Minnesota finished at 120 points.

A neutral site helps the under and we have a neutral court here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs lost some great players from last year's team. Yale pushed the tempo a lot more than normal last year. They are now slowing things down a lot more and trying to win with defense. Yale is 286th quickest (out of 353) in average possession length this year. They were 52nd last year. A huge slowdown. Yale is 9th in effective field goal percentage defense this year, so they have been terrific on defense.

Western Michigan has played two good defenses this year. They scored 58 points on Ole Miss and 63 points on Oklahoma State. The Broncos don't have enough scoring options to consistently put up a big number against quality defenses.

This game is played at HP Fieldhouse in Florida. This has consistently been a good under venue. An early start for two teams a long way from home as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies rank 345th in average possession length so far this year. There are 353 teams in the country. Clearly, the Aggies are intentionally slowing games down this year. Chris Jans' team has been excellent on defense the last two years. Their numbers aren't good so far this year, but they have played some really good offenses. Look for the Aggies to be solid on defense again.

Colorado State typically plays to the pace of their opponents. The Rams have played four terrible defenses and one great one (Duke). New Mexico State obviously isn't Duke defensively, but they should make Colorado State work.

This game is played at 11 am eastern in the Cayman Islands. This is a really long way from home for these two teams and a very early start on the body clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are 349th in the country in tempo. Loyola is using nearly 21 seconds of the shot clock on average, so this is a team that is really stalling. Their last game against Air Force was played to an extremely slow 58 possessions. 

Loyola Marymount was expected to be a team that struggled offensively this year. The Lions have been better than expected so far this year. Still, as I look at who they have played I wonder if that has made the Lions offense look better than they really are this season. They have yet to play a team ranked any higher than 200th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense.

Duquesne ranks 86th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dukes have slowed their tempo down quite a bit from a year ago. Duquesne is coached by Keith Dambrot, and he is known as a good defensive mind. 

This is a neutral site game and early season neutral contests have been strong to the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stetson Hatters are 332nd in the nation in tempo. First year coach Donnie Jones has this team stalling as much as possible. They played a 60-55 very slow paced game against Iona yesterday. Iona is normally a very fast paced team.

Monmouth plays fairly fast, but they aren't efficient on offense. The Hawks are 276th in offensive efficiency in the country. Stetson is 313th in offensive efficiency in the country.

HP Field House is a neutral site host for this game. The under is 17-9 in the last 26 games played at this venue.

I think this game is lined a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders are stalling in a way I haven't seen before. UC Riverside is using a whopping 22.5 seconds of the shot clock on average. That is nearly one second per possession slower than the second slowest team out of 353 in the nation. For example, Virginia is using 21.1 seconds per possession, and they have often been thought of as a team that is the slowest in the country.

Denver prefers to play slowly as well. Denver is 283rd in tempo so far this year. Denver has played against some pretty fast paced opponents so far this year, but that will change on Saturday against UC Riverside.

With the tempo I expect this game to be played at, it would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

UC Riverside's first four games against Division I opponents have finished with this many total points: 113 points, 109 points, 111 points, and 109 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have completely changed the way they play. James Madison was 313th in average possession length last year, so they were a very slow team (1st being the quickest and 353rd the slowest). 

Where do they rank so far this year? James Madison is 2nd in the country. Coach Rowe said in the offseason that they wanted to completely change the way they play and they have followed through on that. 

New Hampshire has played to the pace of their opponent so far this year. New Hampshire is likely to be behind, so they won't be able to slow things down much here.

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough based on the new tempo James Madison is playing at this season.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes ran up the score on Mississippi Valley State, and that has made their totals since then too high. Utah isn't going to be able to score 143 points or even close to that on anyone else the rest of the season. Utah plays relatively quickly, but I don't expect them to stay as fast as they are right now in the tempo rankings. They played abnormally fast in that one game against Mississippi Valley State. Their games since have been exactly at an average tempo.

Ohio is going to be working hard to slow down the pace in this game. The Bobcats have had major trouble with turning over the basketball so far this year on offense. Ohio doesn't have great athleticism and they don't want to get into track meets. The Bobcats do have a very defensive-minded coach in Jeff Boals.

This is at a neutral site which is a positive for the under. Shooting numbers tend to be lower at these sites. In the long run the under has done very well on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under venue in all of college basketball. It is a huge arena with a unique backdrop. 

Duke is always thought of as an offensive team, but many of their newcomers this year are even better on defense than offense. Duke is second in defensive efficiency so far this year, and I would expect them to stay in the top five all year. The Blue Devils have some elite perimeter defenders.

Georgetown does push the pace, but the Hoyas haven't gone against a defense with the same length and athleticism as Duke so far this year. 

Duke is a 13 point favorite here. The under has done well in games where Duke is a double digit favorite in the long run. Coach K's teams do slow the tempo late when they are winning.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are about as good as anyone at slowing a game down. They did that again yesterday. Their win over Air Force had only 61 possessions. Loyola Marymount just shot lights out in that win. They averaged 1.28 points per possession in that game. For a team that was expected to struggle mostly on offense this year, that was a very surprising performance. I think they are likely to regress to the mean some on offense here. 

Indiana State had 49 fouls called in their game yesterday which made that game edge past the posted total. It's unlikely we will see that many fouls in this game. 

This is a neutral court game which is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMBC Retrievers try to slow the game to a crawl. They don't have good outside shooters. That's a big problem against Eastern Michigan's zone defense that packs it in the paint and tries to force you to beat them from outside.  Eastern Michigan can be vulnerable on the offensive boards with their zone defense as well. UMBC though has ranked in the bottom 100 in offensive rebounding the last two years.

Eastern Michigan held North Texas to 51 points on the road in their last game. The Eagles only put up 56 points. The Eagles have a lot of questions on offense, and UMBC has consistently been a very good defensive team.

Both of these teams project as very low scoring teams, and this is a neutral site contest that is a positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana State Sycamores have been a very good defensive team under coach Greg Lansing. Last year's team didn't live up to expectations on the defensive end, and Lansing made it clear that was a priority for this year. I expect them to be at least some better on defense this season. 

Keith Dambrot coached the Akron Zips for quite a few years. He had many good defensive teams. Dambrot's teams have often been better on defense than offense. Duquesne ranks 55th in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. 

Both of these teams play at a slightly slower than average pace. There shouldn't be all that many possessions in this game. 

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions ranked 349th out of 353 teams in average possession length last year. They rank 343rd out of 353 in the country this year. Loyola is clearly trying to use as much clock as possible and keep games low scoring. 

Air Force always plays at a slower than average tempo, and I don't see them forcing the tempo much in this one. The Falcons had a couple high scoring games in their first two games of the season. Their last two games have finished with 126 points and 119 points. 

Loyola Marymount scored 67 points against Nevada and 64 points against Colorado State. Both of those teams are pushing the pace, and neither of them are very good on defense.

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Holy Cross Crusaders have a new coach in Brett Nelson. Nelson has changed their style of play drastically. Before, Holy Cross would run the clock down low every possession with the Princeton offense of Bill Carmody. Nelson wants the team to push the pace at every opportunity. 

Holy Cross games have averaged 6.5 possessions per game more than they did a year ago. The Crusaders lost their best defensive players from last year, and they are going to be very weak on defense this year. They rank 320th in defensive efficiency so far this year in the country, so it has been a major struggle. They even allowed 87 points to a New Hampshire team that ranked dead last at 353rd in the counry in offensive efficiency last year.

Northeastern's Bill Coen runs a great motion offense. This team constantly moves without the ball and gets great looks at the basket. Northeastern was 13th in effective field goal percentage offense two years ago. They were 5th last year. They are 21st in the country so far this year. Look for them to get a lot of wide open looks against Holy Cross.

Two of Holy Cross' three games this year have finished at 166 points or higher. Northeastern has seen an average of 149.5 points scored in their games (3 of 4 have finished at 145 or higher).

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Before the season new Fairfield coach Jay Young said of his team "Scoring is going to be a big concern." First of all, it is very rare you'll see a coach say that about their team before a season. At the same time, it is refreshing to see someone who just is honest and calls out their weakness from day one. 

Indeed it has been a struggle for Fairfield on the offensive end. Fairfield ranks 303rd in offensive efficiency so far this year. The Stags are averaging 61 points per game in regulation in their first three contests. They are also playing at an extremely slow tempo. They are looking to turn these games into grinders.

Loyola Maryland has played to the pace of the opponent most of the time the last couple seasons. The Greyhounds aren't likely to be out in transition too much here. They scored only 53 points on Marquette and 53 points against Old Dominion as well.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have made it abundantly clear in their first four games that they want to stall. Dartmouth ranks 339th in the nation in average possession length. This ranks them among the 15 slowest teams in the country. 

It's pretty rare to see a total set this high when one team is playing so slowly. Dartmouth's final totals so far this year have been 131 points, 104 points, 101 points, and 94 points. 

UMass Lowell was willing to play a slow paced game with Merrimack yesterday. This one will likely be played quicker than that game, but I still see a tempo in the mid 60's (possessions) as likely. 

Both teams have been good at defending without fouling the last couple seasons. They have both also been good at clearing defensive rebounds.

This total is several points too high.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Stony Brook both want to play at a slow pace. These are two teams who are comfortable playing physical halfcourt games where possessions are at a premium. Both teams are good on the defensive glass, which should limit how many second chance opportunities there are in this one.

This is a neutral site game in Texas in the early afternoon. Neither team is close at all to home and this is a relatively large arena (8,500 capacity) that will be mostly empty for this game. These situations are helpful for the under. The shooting backdrop isn't as good in these cases. 

North Dakota State relies on the 3 ball a lot, and the 3 point line being moved back this year could hurt their efficiency. Stony Brook has a lot of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are playing a stingy zone defense. Joe Gallo is known for his defensive prowess, and he has this new Division I team working really hard in their unique zone defense. This is a morphing zone where they deny far more passes to the wing than most zones do. They held Northwestern to 61 points. They then held Dartmouth to 55 points. Yesterday, they held UMass Lowell to 58 points.

Merrimack wants to slow the game down. They rank 316th overall in the country in tempo. They settle for too many bad 3 pointers on the offensive end.

Jacksonville is 265th in overall tempo and 302nd in average possession length. They should be happy to play a slow tempo here as well.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have one of the worst offenses in the country. Tennessee Tech scored only 30 points on Friday in a blowout loss to UNC Greensboro. While I can't expect them to put up such a low point total again, I wouldn't expect a lot of points from them here. This is a team that turns the ball over at such a high percentage that they waste all sorts of possessions. 

Appalachian State plays at a slightly slower pace than average. Tennessee Tech plays at a slow pace as well.

This is an early season neutral site game, and these have been very strong to the under in the long run. This number is quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have been really impressive so far this year. Dartmouth has been able to control the pace of the game in each of their three games. They are 3-0 on the year. Dartmouth ranks 336th in average possession length so far this year. There has been an average of just 112 points total in Dartmouth's three games so far this year.

Jacksonville has played at a pace slower than average so far this year as well. Tony Jasick's team tends to play to the pace of their opponent more often than not.

This game is at a neutral site, and early games at neutral sites in college basketball has been a strong angle to the under in recent seasons. Rule changes for this year have made that an even stronger angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Through two games UC Riverside is using an average of 25.1 seconds of the 30 second shot clock. That is far slower than anyone else in the country so far this year. The Highlanders should do the same thing again here.

Sacramento State lost their star offensive player in Marcus Graves from last year's team. This offense is likely to be pretty inefficient without him. The Hornets tend to prefer playing at a slow pace as well.

This is a game that should be played in the halfcourt, and we have two offenses with a bunch of question marks. The new rules are helpful to the under since both teams likely have to settle for some bad 3's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green always want to slow the game down. Dartmouth ranked 295th in average length of possession two years ago. They ranked 321st a year ago. So far this season, they rank 328th in tempo. 

Merrimack College is transitioning to Division I this year. Joe Gallo is a really good head coach. He has this team playing a unique zone defense that really bothered Northwestern in Merrimack's stunning win over the Wildcats in their last game. I would expect most of Merrimack's games to be played at a fairly slow pace based on their extended zone.

This game is being played at a neutral site. Neutral site unders have done really well in the past thanks to lower shooting numbers. This year the 3 point line being moved back is an extra positive for a situation like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose had a nice year last year. They lost just about everyone from last year's team though. That included their head coach Dustin Kerns, who did a great job with this program. The Blue Hose didn't return a single double digit scorer this year. 

Presbyterian has a new head coach in Quinton Ferrell. Ferrell was an assistant coach at College of Charleston, where they have been known for their relatively slow pace and extremely strong defense. In their first couple games of the year, Presbyterian has slowed the game down quite a bit. This isn't a team with much scoring depth, and I think they'll want to play lower scoring games.

Morehead State ranks among the 30 slowest paced teams in the nation so far this year when it comes to average length of possession. They slowed down a Samford team that wants to play very quickly. The Eagles aren't likely to be pushing the pace too hard here either.

With the new rules in college basketball helping the under thus far, a total like this between two teams who lack scorers is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under*   (4 star play down to 128- 3 star play down to 125.5*

Wyoming has slowed their pace down to a crawl this year. The oddsmakers have adjusted, but I don't believe they have adjusted enough. Wyoming played really quick a couple years ago, and they were in the middle of the pack this year. They should finish among the 5 or 10 slowest teams in the country in pace this season. They will likely be a decent team defensively, but their offense is inefficient. 

Fullerton lost their two star scorers in Ahmad and Allman. The Titans are one of the better defensive teams in the Big West. Fullerton offensively should struggle with efficiency this year as they look to find a new identity on the offensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Missouri State was an automatic under last year, and until I see something different I'm riding the under train again here. Missouri State uses up the clock very well and they play excellent defense. Cleveland State has slowed down so far this year, and I don't think they'll push the pace. This is a Cleveland State offense that is very inefficient as well.

I see this one staying in the 120's. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Tuesday night.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Star TOP Play Over* The Mississippi State Delta Devils have played at a ridiculous pace in their first three games. Their defense is arguably the worst in the country as well. The Delta Devils have given up 110, 143, and 134 points in their first three games.

Western Michigan does play slower than those other teams. I don't think the Broncos will score 130 points, but I also think they'll put up a big number. This will be the worst defense they face all year. 

I think this one is lined quite a bit too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida A&M Rattlers got much better defensively last year. Florida A&M went from 289th in effective field goal percentage defense two years ago to 70th a year ago. The Rattlers do have significant problems on the offensive end though. Florida A&M ranked 347th in the country averaging only 0.894 points per possession a year ago.

Florida A&M was also among the 40 slowest teams in the country in terms of pace last year. They will play slowly again this season. Florida A&M saw 6 of their first 9 games last year stay at 128 points or lower. Their first three games this year have finished with totals of 125, 115, and 130 points.

South Dakota is the much better team here, and they should be able to coast to a victory. The Coyotes have been great from 3 point range so far this year, but some regression should be expected there. Florida A&M has been good at defending the 3 ball the last couple years too.

South Dakota has been happy to slow the pace of the game down with a lead under Todd Lee. I would expect the same here.

This is a neutral site game and that is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dusty May has a really deep team, and he has said that he wants his team to be uptempo on offense. May said the team is healthier this year (Ingram and Sebree were hurt last year), and their improved depth will help them play faster.

We all know Nate Oats wants to run at Alabama. It is no secret that Oats had great success at Buffalo by forcing the pace in a big way. The slowest overall tempo his teams at Buffalo had still ranked 39th in the country in fastest paced. The last two seasons, Buffalo's average possession length was among the five fastest in the nation.

Alabama played their first game to 84 possessions- so they were absolutely flying up and down the court in that one.

We should see a really quick pace here, so if we can avoid an ugly shooting night- I like the chances of this one being a high scoring affair. 

I think both of these teams have improved offenses from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* St. John's put up 109 points against Mercer in their first game. Mike Anderson brings renewed energy to this St. John's basketball program. The Red Storm have a bunch of quickness and Anderson believes the talent matches his scheme nicely. Anderson's teams always want to run and full court press. St. John's forced that first game to a blistering pace of 83 possessions.

Central Connecticut State coach Donyell Marshall has talked about wanting to play quick. If they want to play quick- here is their chance. C Conn State's defense is very weak and they turn it over a lot. St. John's should put up a really big number here. 

If the pace is as quick as I believe it will be here, it won't even take great shooting numbers to get to this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders have done really well early in the season in college basketball. Since 2005, in games 1-8 of the season on a neutral court and a total of 134 or higher the under is 55.1%. That's a large sample size.

This game is played in Hawaii and neither team is accustomed to playing here. There have been some really low scoring games in neutral site games here in the past. This is a gym with a bit of a poor shooting backdrop, and Hawaii is obviously a long way away from home for both teams.

Pacific doesn't have enough offensive weapons to play quickly. Damon Stoudamire's team has slowed the pace down significantly in the last couple seasons. 

South Dakota and Pacific are two good defensive rebounding teams. I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen host the Veteran's Classic on Friday night. This is a game that means a lot to the Navy program for obvious reasons. East Carolina is their opponent here. 

East Carolina ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. Navy ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. 

Navy struggled with getting a lot of their shots blocked last year. East Carolina is the tallest team in the country. They'll likely get quite a few blocked in this game.

East Carolina shot 28.4% from 3 last year and Navy shot 31.7% from 3 point range a year ago. The 3 point line has been moved back this year and thus far it has resulted in games that are quite a bit lower scoring. 

Both teams turn the ball over a bunch, so there should be a lot of wasted possessions. 

Navy used up 21.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in their first game against George Mason. That game was 52-52 at the end of regulation. They'll work hard to grind this game to a halt as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears coach says they want to continue to use a "deliberate" pace. Maine was 342nd in the nation in length of possession on offense last year. Maine was also 335th in offensive efficiency. In 31 games against Division I opponents, Maine saw only 10 of their games get past this posted total. Only 8 of their 31 games went over this total in regulation.

Merrimack College transitions over to Division I this year. Merrimack is coached by Joe Gallo who was an assistant at Robert Morris a few years ago, and his team plays zone almost all the time. Their 2-3 zone will often slow the game down and force opponents to hit shots from the outside. Merrimack faces a Maine team that has shot 29.6% and 31.0% from 3 point range the last two years. 

Maine's defense should improve a bit under Richard Barron this year. The Black Bears were solid on the defensive glass last year.

Look for a slow pace in this one and I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Duquesne is in the middle of a couple major transitions. Leading scorer and rebounder Eric Williams transferred to Oregon in the offseason. Frankie Hughes was the team's fourth leading scorer, and he is out with an injury. Duquesne will be relying on some youngsters in the backcourt. 

The Dukes weren't bad on defense last year, but they gave up far too many second chance points. Princeton consistently ranks near the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounds. 

Princeton lost Myles Stephens in the offseason, and there are a lot of questions about who their go to scoring options will be. The Tigers prefer to use clock on offense and they don't get to the line very much.

Princeton excels at defensive rebounding, and Duquesne got a lot of offense from second chance opportunities last year.

PPG Paints Arena (hockey arena) is where this one will be played. Duquesne doesn't really have a home gym while there campus arena is being worked on. PPG Paints arena has seen 6 of the last 8 games played here go under the total. Of those six games that have gone under- all but one of them stayed under the number by 12 points or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense, and it isn't even very close. You have to love what the Red Raiders are doing defensively under Chris Beard. Beard is an elite head coach and he has this team working so hard on defense. As he has said before, defense is a way of life in his program. If you don't defend well, you won't play for Chris Beard.

Michigan State's defense is a lot better than most people realize. The Spartans have played the second toughest schedule in the country this year, and they haven't allowed an opponent to average more than 1.12 points per game all year. They have been so consistently strong defensively. Michigan State has a couple very good defenders in Matt McQuaid and Aaron Henry to throw at Jarrett Culver.

Texas Tech and Michigan State have both struggled with turnovers on offense this year, and I do think there will be quite a few wasted possessions in this game. Neither team likes to push the pace very much, and both teams are very physical. As long as we don't get a ref show here, I think the defenses will have the upper hand all the way.

Michigan State loves to run the pick and roll with Winston, but Texas Tech is elite at defending that play. Texas Tech is reliant on Culver getting into the lane, but Michigan State should have a good defensive plan ready for him.

Shooting numbers have historically been lower in these huge stadiums built for football rather than basketball. That's another plus in this one.

A very hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Longhorns meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. This is a strange game in that it is a Big 12 showdown in New York City. It's the third time these two teams have played each other this year. 

The first two games between these two teams finished at 125 and 126 points total. Texas ranks 35th in the country in defensive efficiency. TCU ranks 33rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Very early in the small postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, CIT) the over has been a huge moneymaker in the past. Later in these tournaments, the under has had a lot of value. These games start meaning more now. You're this far into the tournament, so why wouldn't you try to go win the thing? The defensive intensity tends to pick up on average, and the tempo slows down a bit.

Madison Square Garden is arguably the best under arena you'll find for a college basketball game. The under is 60-39-2 in the last 101 postseason games at MSG with a total of 127.5 or higher. 

In the NIT semifinals or finals, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 contests with a total of 129 or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats rank 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 12th in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 1st in effective field goal percentage defense. While both teams are pretty good on offense, the strength of both teams is their defense. 

Kentucky has slowed their tempo down drastically in recent weeks. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 ten games to a pace of 64 possessions or slower. Kentucky ranks 274th in tempo overall in the country. 

Houston ranks 247th in overall pace in the country. Houston has been held to a low number on offense in several big games this year. In fact, they scored 61 points or less in two of their last four games. 

This should be a very good game played between two physical teams. I'll keep this one to a 3 star play because if we get referees who want to blow the whistle a lot, this one could go over the total.

Overall though, I see a tight low scoring game in this showdown to see who gets to the Elite 8.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan ranks second in the nation in defensive efficiency. There is going to be some tremendous defense played in this game. If there is a lot of scoring, it will be because the teams are hitting tough shots. 

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Michigan's offense ranks 290th in the country in tempo, so they move very slowly. Texas Tech ranks at 253rd out of 353, so they move pretty slowly as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt, and both defenses are excellent. 

These are two extremely well-coached teams. Both coaching staffs should have a great idea of what the other team wants to do here. That should help the defenses.

With the venue being an extra bonus, I think the defenses look great here. It's a low number for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs lost to the Florida State Seminoles last year in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is very excited for the chance to get them back this season. Florida State's length really bothered Gonzaga's offense last year.

Florida State just put up 90 points in a blowout win over Murray State in the Round of 32. Keep in mind though, this is a Florida State offense that really struggled at times this year. They rank 171st in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Florida State is shooting only 33.7% from 3 point range on the season. 

Gonzaga's offense is great. The Bulldogs did feast on a weak schedule though. They faced the 104th toughest slate of defenses this year. Gonzaga did struggle more against the better defenses they faced this year (Tennessee, St. Mary's). Florida State ranks 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they should give Gonzaga a tougher time than most teams have.

Florida State would be well served to play this game more in the halfcourt and force Gonzaga to stay out of the paint as much as possible.

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll start by saying this is an extremely high total, and normally I wouldn't play an over at this number. There are a couple key reasons I'll take the over in this game though.

This is a second round game in the CIT, which is a small postseason tournament. These smaller postseason tournaments in the early rounds have gone over the total at a very high rate. 

Green Bay's last game against East Tennessee State finished at 102-94. Both teams did shoot very well in that one. FIU's last game finished 87-81. That was against a Texas State team that tries to stall as much as possible.

FIU ranks first in the country in tempo. Green Bay ranks 10th overall in tempo and 8th in their offensive length of possession. These two teams absolutely fly. 

The quotes from Linc Darner, coach of Green Bay, suggest he expects a game with both teams pressing all game and running. With two teams pressing and both teams pretty good at drawing fouls, there should be quite a few trips to the line. Additionally, both of these defenses are bad at grabbing defensive rebounds so I would expect plenty of second chance opportunities. 

It's a very high number, but I think this one gets to 180 or more. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars rank first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Ohio State ranks 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Houston ranks 252nd in the nation in tempo. Ohio State is 277th in the nation in tempo. Both Kelvin Sampson and Chris Holtmann generally prefer to play at a slow pace. 

Ohio State doesn't have much offensive firepower, and I would assume their game plan is to make sure this is a halfcourt game.

Both teams are far better at defense than offense, and this is a game that decides who gets to the Sweet 16. There is clearly plenty of incentive to work extremely hard on defense. 

In a regular setting, I think 130 is a fair number for the total here. In a game like this that means much more, I think this total should be in the 120's.

The under is 6-0-1 in Houston's last 7 neutral site games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Greensboro Spartans use a full court press to keep the tempo going. Lipscomb ranks in the 94th percentile in the country in press offense. The Bison will be happy to play fast, and they should be able to get some quick scores against the press. UNCG will also create some turnovers and scoring opportunities from that press. 

Lipscomb ranks 14th quickest in average possession time on the season. UNCG ranks 77th out of 353 in tempo on offense. These teams love to play fast to start with. These postseason tournament games early in the tournament have been great over plays in the last few seasons. This one should be up and down all the way. Both teams have had fast paced high scoring games in the first round. They should repeat that here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The VCU Rams offense moves at the 40th quickest pace of any team in the country in terms of average possession length. I would expect VCU to move even faster than normal in a game like this. They know they can't get into a halfcourt game against a team with a 7'6 shot blocker like Tacko Fall in the middle. They'll look for every chance to get out in transition. 

UCF hasn't faced a press like VCU's much at all this year, and at times they have struggled with turnovers. VCU should get some easy chances off turnovers.

VCU's defense has been very good this year. Still, I think UCF's ability to draw fouls is key in this one. UCF is second in the nation in FTA/FGA. VCU fouls a lot based on their pressure defense. Look for BJ Taylor to be at the line a lot here. VCU is also good at getting to the free throw line. 

Both teams are good at getting second chance opportunities. With both teams getting second chance points and both teams getting to the line, this is a low total. With the spread where it is, overtime is a possibility and a foul fest late is possible as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State offense isn't the same without Dean Wade. Wade is a big man who can score in the post or step out and shoot or facilitate the offense. Kansas State becomes too guard-oriented without him. 

The Wildcats can still play elite defense without Wade. Kansas State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency (one spot ahead of Virginia). Bruce Weber's team is going to be easily the best defense UC Irvine has faced this year. In fact, Irvine hasn't gone against a team in the top 40 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Kansas State's offense can be a mess without Wade, and UC Irvine has been very good defensively for several years under coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine ranks first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. 

Both teams play at an extremely slow tempo. This game tips off at 11 am local time, so this is an early start for these teams and that on the whole is a positive for the under.

This total is very low, but UC Irvine has played 8 games under this number this year. Kansas State has played 12 games under this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels and the Villanova Wildcats meet on Thursday night in Connecticut. 

Both of these teams play very slowly. In terms of average possession length, Villanova ranks 339th out of 353 teams. St. Mary's is even slower at 350th out of 353 teams. This game should be played in the halfcourt throughout.

St. Mary's has some impressive numbers at home this year on offense, but their road and neutral offensive efficiencies are much lower. The Gaels averaged 1.202 points per possession at home this year. They averaged 1.085 points per possession on the road. They averaged 1.077 points per possession on neutral courts. They are a long way from home in this one, and neutral courts like this one tend to lean toward the under.

Villanova ranks in the top 5 in most three point shots attempted. The Wildcats go against a St. Mary's defense who ranks 44th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. St. Mary's has ranked in the top 44 each of the last three years when it comes to defending beyond the arc.

Look for a low scoring contest thanks in large part to the tempo this game will be played at. Both teams also rank in the top 80 in the nation in defending without fouling, so barring a ref show there shouldn't be too many free throws in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 8th in the country in quickest possession length on offense. Green Bay always runs and they'll continue to do so here. 

East Tennessee State is right in the middle of the pack at 181st. The Bucs have shown the willingness to run against the likes of Georgia Southern, VMI, and Western Carolina this year. Green Bay will be the fastest paced team they have played all year.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

East Tennessee State should dominate on the glass against a Green Bay team that gives up second chance points by the bunches.

This is several points too low in what should be a really high tempo contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Grand Canyon and West Virginia like to push the pace. There are a lot of teams in their leagues who prefer to slow the game down, but now they get to go up against another team who likes to run.

Grand Canyon was an elite defense last year. They aren't this season. Grand Canyon was 3rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 149th this season.

West Virginia picked up the pace quite a bit in their last few games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games to a pace of 71 possessions or quicker. Seven of their last eight games have finished at 153 points or higher.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Look for an uptempo game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers go to Brown to take on the Brown Bears from the Ivy League. This is a CBI contest.

Both of these teams have pretty good defensive numbers on the year, but these defenses aren't as good as they look. Why? Both have played a bunch of weak offenses. UAB has faced the 276th strongest offenses in the country according to KenPom (compared to 125th best defenses). Brown has faced the 249th toughest slate of offenses (185th defenses). Essentially, both teams played in leagues where they didn't have to go up against many good offenses.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Brown ranks 40th in overall tempo in the country (out of 353 teams), so they really push the pace. This is a very low total in a small postseason game with one team pushing the pace that much.

Take the over.