*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are without BJ Taylor right now. Taylor is the most important guy to this UCF offense. Without him, they were a complete mess last season, and it appears the same is true this year. UCF has scored 45 and 43 points in their last two games against West Virginia and St. John's. 

UCF will be great on defense again this year with Tacko Fall manning the middle and swatting shots away left and right. 

Missouri will play at a slow pace under Cuonzo Martin. His teams are always halfcourt oriented teams. Missouri has played several teams that want to run a lot this year, but UCF is similar in that they prefer a halfcourt game.

Look for good defense from both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks always play great defense under Frank Martin. Martin's teams play relatively quick on offense, but they aren't very efficient, especially since they lost Thornwell from last year's team. Sindarius Thornwell was the guy everything went through on offense for the Final 4 Gamecocks last year.

Temple has shot the ball really well this year, but this is an excellent defense they will go up against in this one.

Additionally, this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is easily the best under arena in basketball. The sight lines are tough here, and college kids have consistently had trouble with shooting in this arena in the long run. Neutral site unders early in the year is a profitable angle, and when it is MSG that is a big bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is an excellent defensive team. They are great at shutting down the opposition and making them take tough shots on the perimeter. 

Western Carolina was 348th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country last year. They are just slightly better this year, and they were held to 57 and 51 points by Clemson and Cincinnati.

C of C is without their best offensive player in Brantley, and that has caused them to slow their tempo even more in recent games. I think they win comfortably here and the defense leads the way.

I'll fade the early line move here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are pushing the pace as much as ever under Coach Simon this year. Southern Utah continues to be awful on defense as well. Southern Utah ranks 347th in defensive efficiency so far this year out of 351 teams in the country. Where were they the last two years? They were 350th and 349th. Awful. Southern Utah has a habit of fouling at an epic rate. They tend to do this when losing in the second half, and there can be some very high scores in the second half in their games.

Pepperdine is one of those teams that tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and in this case that should mean a very quick tempo. Pepperdine is great at getting to the line and they should get a lot of trips there in this one. 

A quick tempo and a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn has changed their offense this year. They are no longer a guard oriented team. They look to get the ball inside and that takes more time. Villanova has more shot blockers and length on the inside than just about anyone, and that should make it hard on Penn's offense.

The Wildcats are excellent on defense, and they prefer to play at a slow pace if they can. Villanova played some really high scoring games against teams in the top 20 in tempo early this season. Penn isn't going to want to run here, and I think the tempo stays slow.

This is one where the spread is big and it reduces the risk of a foul fest late. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* James Madison ranked in the bottom 30 in the country in pace of play last year. They should end up near the bottom in tempo again this year. 

George Mason lost their top two scoring options from last year. Marquis Moore was the guy that everything ran through, and without him I expect their offensive efficiency numbers to dip significantly this year. George Mason is playing significantly slower than last year, and that makes sense with less scoring options.

George Mason has only played one game that has gone above this total in regulation this year. James Madison has played a couple very fast paced teams and that has skewed this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Red HOT CASH* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played significantly slower so far this year. Wake Forest has shot the ball at a very high percentage, but they haven't played against any good defenses.

Illinois looks to push the tempo under Brad Underwood, but I don't think they'll be all that efficient on offense when playing against decent opponents this year. Illinois hasn't played anyone ranked in the top 120 in the country in defensive efficiency. Most of the teams they have played have ranked in the bottom 100 in the country in defensive efficiency.

Illinois has played only one game this year that has gone over this total and that was 165 points against Marshall. Marshall ranks in the top five in the country in tempo. 

Wake Forest has only played one game that has gone over this total as well, and that was their first game of the season.

This should be a relatively high scoring game, but this number has gotten awfully high. I'll take the under at this level.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are coming off two miserable shooting performances. They were playing at Syracuse and at Kansas in those two games. This is a massive step down in class. 

Oral Roberts made only 13/41 two pointers in their last game. They shot 33% from the floor overall in a loss to Penn State. 

When two teams are coming off extremely low shooting percentage, I like to look for overs in the next game. Why? The market usually overreacts. 

This total has already been pushed down a few points in the market. 

Oakland is playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. Oral Roberts slows the game down a bit, but they are terrible on the defensive glass and Oakland should get second chance and transition opportunities here. 

Oakland should be good on offense overall this year, and this is a pretty low number for a game they are involved in. Neither defense is very good.

The over is 8-1 in Oral Roberts' last 9 home games.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas State Bobcats are one of the slowest paced teams in the country every single year. This year won't be any different. Danny Kaspar's teams often don't have a ton of speed and athleticism, so they utilize a game plan that reduces the amount of possessions and forces their opponent into a style they aren't typically playing.

Canisius generally plays to the pace of their opponent. They play a lot of teams who like to run, so their tempo looks faster than it would in a different conference. They aren't playing a team who runs here.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* Northeastern lost their top two scorers from last year's team. The Huskies always play at a slower than average tempo, and so far this year they are playing even slower than normal. In some years, they have been efficient on offense, but this year they are really struggling shooting the ball.

Utah State is happy to play at a slow pace as well. The Aggies aren't a team that looks for transition opportunities very often at all. 

This a neutral site game where both teams aren't accustomed to the gym. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are 351 teams in Division One College basketball. These two teams are ranked 349th and 350th in terms of amount of time they use up of the shot clock. Basically, these are two teams who want to use up the clock as much as possible. When they get together, the tempo should stay very slow.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles have only played one game this year that has gone over this total. That was against UNLV. UNLV is playing extremely fast this year. 

Eastern Kentucky has had 3 games against Division I opponents, and 2 of the 3 were under this number.

This game is being played on a neutral floor. Neutral floor unders are 56.5% when the number is 135.5 or higher in the first month of the season. These are unique shooting backdrops and that usually lowers the shooting numbers a bit. 

Neither of these teams have been pushing the tempo this year. This number is several points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have consistently slowed the pace of the game down. Evansville hasn't played a game this year that went above 140. The Purple Aces have played their last three games to a final total of 123, 116, and 127. 

Fresno State has shot the ball really well in their first couple games. Fresno State has consistently been a team that struggles shooting the ball in the past couple years. The Bulldogs are likely to regress to the mean on offense again this year. 

This game is played on a neutral floor. The under is 56.5% in the past ten years on a neutral floor when the total is 135.5 or higher.

I think the defenses play well here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two teams known for playing slowly and controlling the basketball meet on Monday night. Wisconsin has less good offensive options than they have had in recent years. The Badgers will defend well though, and they do a nice job of defending without fouling. 

The Baylor Bears are always near the top of the charts in shot blocking. They make everyone work hard for their baskets in the paint. Baylor typically relies heavily on offensive rebounds, but Wisconsin is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.

This total has been pushed up from its opening number, and I see that as a mistake.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have been a really bad shooting team in recent years. They don't play very fast either. Cleveland State is clearly better on the defensive end than they are on offense right now. This Cleveland State team scored only 38 points against Rutgers. They scored only 57 points against Akron in a game with 82 possessions! 

The move upward on this total doesn't make any sense to me. Until these teams prove it consistently to me, I'm going to see them as teams that have to make the game ugly to win on a regular basis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a neutral court game and those are much more favorable to the under in the early season. In fact, neutral court unders with a total of 135.5 or higher are 56.5% in the last ten years.

Wyoming plays very quickly, but they aren't all that efficient on offense. The Cowboys are good on defense and they have multiple shot blockers.

South Dakota State plays at a fairly average pace. They are good offensively, but Wyoming is much better than most defenses they play against. 

It isn't common to see a posted total set this high without both teams being excellent on offense and both teams running.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Early season games played on a neutral court have cashed at almost 57% in the last 10 years when the posted total is 135.5 or higher. This is a neutral court, and it is the first time either of these teams have played in this gym. 

Elon's Coach Matheny talked in the preseason about wanting to slow things down a bit this year from their tempo in the past. They have a perfect opponent to slow it down against here. FIU is a very slow paced team that has played to a bunch of low scoring games in the last couple years since Anthony Evans took over.

I think this number should be 136.5, so we're getting 5 points of value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac has a new coach this year in Baker Dunleavy and he has talked in depth in the offseason about concerns on the offensive end. The team has shot the ball well through two games, but that was against Dartmouth and Brown. They step up in competition in a big way here. 

Colorado has a lot of length and athleticism, and they should be a solid defensive team this year. Colorado is a big favorite here and long term unders have been the way to go with a big spread like this.

On a neutral floor, the under has the edge because of the unique shooting backdrops for both teams. This is a place neither team has played. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies won't play as fast this year under Coach Mike Hopkins as they did under Lorenzo Romar. Hopkins has this team playing the Syracuse zone he learned under Jim Boeheim, and that typically limits the possessions in a game. 

Washington has been getting to the line at an extremely high rate through two games and that's where their offense has come from. They should get to the line less against a Providence team that has been good at defending without fouling under Ed Cooley.

Cooley's Providence teams have typically been better on defense than offense. He mixes up the defenses very well.

This game is at Madison Square Garden. The under is a very good bet in college games at Madison Square Garden because of the sight lines being so difficult. In the last 45 college hoops games at MSG as a true neutral court has seen 31 games stay under the total and 14 go over the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without three key players for this game. Jason Carter is their best big man and they'll certainly miss him a lot here. Carter is a good offensive rebounder and a decent scorer. 

Clemson no longer has Jarron Blossomgame, and he was the heart and soul of the offense at Clemson. The Tigers won't be as good on offense this year. What did Brad Brownell have as his focal point during the offseason? Defense. He was disappointed in the team's defense last year. Clemson has routinely been a great defensive team under his helm, but they weren't very good there this year. The team took a trip overseas in the offseason, and Brownell believes the team is set to be much better on defense this year.

This is a neutral site game. In the past ten years, neutral site games with a total of 135.5 or higher in the first eight games of the year have gone 57% under the total. That's a huge sample size. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* San Diego State is playing a whole new brand of basketball under Brian Dutcher. A San Diego State beat writer said Dutcher gave the Aztecs a choice in practices leading up to the season either push the ball in full court drills or get on the line and run sprints: either way they were going to run. Off missed shots Dutcher doesn't want the team running set plays, rather he wants them looking to score in transition.

Arizona State is one of the faster paced teams in the Pac 12, and the Sun Devils are likely to be happy to play fast in this one. They have a great backcourt and they have speed all over the court.

San Diego State no longer has an athletic shot blocker in the paint like they have had in recent years. Defense has been a struggle for Arizona State in recent years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos are playing a very unique style this year. New Mexico is going with the run and stun. Paul Weir is their new coach, and he saw that the team didn't have enough size this year and decided the team would press and run at an extreme level. Yes, they only played Northern New Mexico in their first game. Still, putting up 147 points (a record) and playing the game to a pace of 100 (blistering fast) shows the way this team will play.

Weir said, "I mean, the reality is we are a little undersized. The reality is we lack one or two McDonalds All-Americans on our team. What we have is our depth. What we have is our teamwork. What we have is our elevation. What we have is our speed, our shooting ability." They will run like crazy this year.

Nebraska Omaha has finished among the top nine in the country in tempo in each of the last five seasons. That's really impressive when you consider there are 351 teams. Omaha plays very quickly. They aren't likely to slow the game down at all here.

A really fast pace leads to value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers are going to be a much different team this year than last. Typically, you see value on a team's games in some way when there is a major stylistic change from one year to the next. I think that means Oregon State overs will have value for a bit here.

Oregon State was walking it up and stalling as much as possible, but that's because they were shorthanded due to injury. Tres Tinkle is the team's best player and he was injured. Now, Tinkle is back and he'll be one of the best players in the Pac 12. Ethan Thompson is running the show as a freshman in the backcourt for Oregon State and his speed is a major weapon. Oregon State will play much faster and score a lot more points this season. 

Wyoming ranked 15th in the nation in tempo out of 351 teams last year. The Cowboys definitely want to run. Look for Wyoming to try to get transition buckets here and Oregon State will play to their style as they change things up this year.

I think the oddsmakers are a bit slow in adjusting here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames ranked in the top 25 in the nation in terms of pace of play last year. They are going to run a bunch again this year. St. Joe's was a team last year that played to the pace of their opponent. St. Joe's played very fast in their first game against Toledo this year and that game saw 185 total points.

UIC's opponent in the first game was NC Central and they stalled the entire game and played a zone defense to slow the game down. I don't expect St. Joe's to do that, and UIC should get out in transition here.

St. Joe's is without Brown and Kimble here, and that's why the total has come down some. Still, I see guys like Newkirk and freshman Taylor Funk being able to score quite a few here. 

UIC has star Dikembe Dixson back from an injury last year, and he will be great for the Flames this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have a new coach this year. They were coached by Tom Moore last year. He coached the team to crash the boards and run as fast as possible. That led to constant run outs for the opposition. It led to a bunch of high scoring games.

Baker Dunleavy is the team's new coach. He is the son of Mike Dunleavy and he has been an assistant at Villanova under Jay Wright. Dunleavy will attempt to use the Villanova 4 out and 1 in game plan and win with spacing and solid defense. That should mean a much slower paced team than last year's Bobcats team.

Dartmouth's Evan Boudreaux was one of the best players in the Ivy League. Before the season, Dartmouth's coach called Boudreaux "the guy we run our offense through" and "our leader", well that hit a speed bump when Boudreaux announced his intent to transfer on Thursday. Announcing two days before the season starts really makes it hard for this team to adjust its offensive game plan.

This total is awfully high for a game between two teams with a bunch of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs played at the third slowest tempo in the country last year. The team plans to play noticeably faster this year. Don't expect track meets, but there should be value looking to go over their totals early on. Jeff Jones said, "We don't have a choice but to play faster" based on personnel this season. 

Towson has been among the leaders in the nation in free throw attempts per possession the last couple years. They crash the offensive glass. They also do a lot of fouling on defense though. Both those are obviously good for the over.

Last year, these two met and the final was 61-58. Any kind of tempo change from Old Dominion should push this one higher, because last year's shooting numbers were subpar in that 61-58 game as well.

Early in the season, refs are usually a little quicker with the whistle, and I imagine there will be a lot of free throws here.

I'll go over this low total. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star Final 4 TOP Play CRUSHER* We're down to the final four teams left standing in the tournament. Now, things get a lot more intense. The teams have even more pressure on them, and things get a little tighter.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs rank first in the nation (351 teams) in defensive efficiency. The South Carolina Gamecocks rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. It's hard to not like an under when you have the top two defenses in the country squaring off against each other.

Gonzaga's offense is solid, but they aren't up to par with their defense. South Carolina's offense struggled most of the year, and the Gamecocks can go through some long scoring droughts.

What else do I like about this play? This game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale. This is where the Arizona Cardinals play. It's a football stadium, and anytime you find a place that isn't built for basketball, you will have a difficult shooting backdrop. 

With the nerves of this time of the year combining with the massive football stadium and the two tremendous defenses, I like the under here. I think this game stays in the low 130's. 

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets meet in the NIT Finals on Thursday night. 

Early in the NIT you can bet that there are a lot of teams who don't want to be there, and the over is a great play in those games. Late in this tournament, the teams are very motivated to want to win something. I think both Georgia Tech and TCU are highly motivated now to finish the deal. That motivation leads to better defense.

Georgia Tech ranks as the #252 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. The Yellow Jackets just aren't very good shooters. They rely on getting in the lane and doing damage in there, and TCU has some good shot blockers. On the other hand, Georgia Tech is very good defensively. The Yellow Jackets are sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. I love the way this team works hard on defense at all times. 

TCU will look to slow the pace of the game down, and the Horned Frogs don't get to the free throw line much at all. I think this Georgia Tech defense will be one of the best defenses they have played against this year.

Neither team fouls much at all on defense, and that's a big perk with the new NIT rules (no one and one's). My numbers made this one in the high 120's. 

Now, for an angle that is hard to overlook. The under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 NIT semifinal or final games. Why is that important? These games are played at Madison Square Garden where, the under has been golden in college basketball in the long run. This is a tough arena for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Tuesday CBB Red HOT CASH* The UCF Golden Knights and the TCU Horned Frogs meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

In the NIT and all of the small postseason tournaments, the over often has value for the majority of the tournament, but once you get this far into the tournament things change quickly. 

In the last 29 NIT Semifinals or finals, the under is 23-6. Madison Square Garden certainly plays a huge role in that. MSG is the single best under venue in the country when it comes to college basketball. It is a massive gym where shooters often struggle to find the range because of difficult shooting backdrops. 

Additionally, now the teams are really invested in this tournament. No one wants to go home now. The defensive effort increases at this point in the tournament by a large amount.

We have UCF who ranks second in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. TCU ranks 58th in defensive efficiency as well. Two good defenses and two teams who don't foul much.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Sweet 16 TOP Play!* The Florida Gators and Wisconsin Badgers square off in what should be a really good game on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. 

Florida ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin ranks seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency. Finding good looks should be very difficult for the offenses on Friday night. 

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 games played at Madison Square Garden. 

The shooting backdrop at MSG is tough enough for NBA shooters, and it has been too much for most college players. Very frequently there are some bad shooting numbers in games here. Specifically, three point field goal percentages are lower in games here by a large margin.

Wisconsin is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. I don't expect Florida to be able to run here. Neither of these teams are elite on the offensive end. Both teams are good at defending without fouling as well.

I think this game stays close the whole way, and I expect a final in the mid 120's. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Sweet 16 TGIF Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks were out of this world good on offense in the second half of their win over Duke last weekend. I had the over in that game and felt very lucky to have won that one.

The Gamecocks went long stretches in that game doing absolutely nothing on offense, and that's a concern for their offense moving forward. Baylor is a lot better defensively than Duke. The Bears rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their size and shot blocking ability on the interior should bother South Carolina a lot here.

South Carolina ranks fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks force loads of turnovers (4th most in the country) and Baylor's weakness on offense is turnovers. The Baylor guards make too many poor decisions with the ball. That should lower their offensive efficiency quite a bit here.

Finally, this game is played in Madison Square Garden. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 college basketball games played at Madison Square Garden. This is a very tough gym for shooters, and I think we could see some ugly shooting numbers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Thursday Night Sweet 16 CASH* The Arizona Wildcats and Xavier Musketeers meet on Thursday night in San Jose. This is a new arena to these teams and that's a negative for shooting percentages. It's a hockey arena with relatively difficult shooting backdrops as well.

Xavier shot well over their season averages in their first two games in the NCAA Tournament. They made 11/17 from three point range in their 91-66 win over Florida State. The Musketeers now go up against an Arizona defense that only allows opponents to shoot 30.9% from long range. I think Xavier's shooting numbers come back down in this one.

Arizona has been relatively inconsistent on offense over the course of the year. The Wildcats are certainly good on offense, but they aren't elite.

Both of these teams like to play at a slow tempo, and with a total set this high, it will take some good shooting numbers to push it over the total. 

Last weekend's run on overs in the NCAA Tournament propped this number up a few points. 

The under is 5-1 in Xavier's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The over has been the way to go in the past in the second round of these smaller postseason tournaments. With the new rules when it comes to no 1 and 1's and no 30 second reset on common fouls, the scoring is up a decent amount. 

It would be hard for me to take an under, and in this particular game, the total is set several points too low.

Cal State Bakersfield held Cal to some terrible shooting last game, but Cal is terrible offensively to start with and they were without their two leading scorers. It won't be as easy against Gian Clavell and the Colorado State Rams offense. 

Bakersfield does play slowly, but they also rank in the top 15 in most fouls committed this year. That's important since the new rules will magnify those issues. 

Colorado State's offense is high quality and the Rams played much quicker in their first postseason game than they did in the regular season. 

With a number set this low and the new rules, I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Akron Zips are excellent on offense, but they have really struggled defensively this year. Inside the MAC, overs were golden this year because there were so many good offenses and bad defenses. Akron fits the mold nicely.

UT Arlington just put up more than 100 points at BYU. UT Arlington loves to run, and I think they'll try to dictate the pace here. The Mavericks have a star in Kevin Hervey, and I'm not sure Akron has anyone who can guard him.

UT Arlington hasn't seen a big man like Isaiah Johnson for Akron, and he should do some real damage here. 

I see both teams scoring a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are an excellent offense and they play very quickly. There's no doubt they are capable of putting up a big number. In this case though, I feel like they are up against a team that has what it takes to turn it into a lower scoring game.

Cincinnati's Mick Cronin talked extensively in his interview with the Cincinnati media about the team's need to slow the game down and turn UCLA into a halfcourt offense. He said Cincinnati needs to use the clock and make UCLA work on defense for the length of the shot clock. Cincinnati is a top ten defense in the country. The Bearcats should be able to make UCLA take tougher shots than they are accustomed to taking.

Cincinnati ranks among the slowest 25 teams in the country, and they have made it clear they want to stall here. With a good defense and a team slowing the game down, this is a lot of points. 

I think this game will be tight, and I'll look for a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday College Hoops BEST Bet* The Duke Blue Devils and South Carolina Gamecocks meet in Greenville, SC on Sunday night. It should be a great atmosphere since there will be a bunch of fans there from each team.

South Carolina likes to run and the Gamecocks attack the rim well. They rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. The Gamecocks are led by a really underrated player in Sindarius Thornwell. 

Duke's offense has been good all year, and it has been excellent of late. The Blue Devils have too many weapons for most defenses. While South Carolina's defense is certainly good, they haven't been up against an offense this efficient all year. The Gamecocks defense commits a ton of fouls and Duke is great at the line at better than 75%. 

These games are being called very tight in the NCAA Tournament, and I think free throws push this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Baylor Bears are great at slowing the game down. Baylor ranks 331st in the nation in tempo. The Bears aren't going to let USC turn this game into a track meet. In the past, USC has been extremely fast paced. They are only slightly faster paced than the average team this year.

USC has been slowed down to a very slow tempo against both Providence and SMU. They shot the ball well in both games, but this Baylor defense ranks in the top ten in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling this year. USC ranks 5th in that category and Baylor 58th in the nation.

Two good defenses here and a total that is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. For this game to go over the posted total, there will have to be some pretty high shooting percentages. A total set at this price with two teams who play as slowly as MTSU and Butler is rare. 

MTSU is a very good team and I believe they'll be well prepared for this game. When they won against Michigan State last year, the Blue Raiders were just thrilled to have won one game in the tournament. This year, I expect MTSU to be extremely focused on reaching the Sweet 16.

Butler has played in a number of very low scoring games this season. The Bulldogs defense is much better than it was a year ago.

Both teams are excellent on the defensive glass so second chance points should be rare.

Take the under.

*4 Star Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are a tough to play unders with, but I have to do it here. UCLA faces a Kent State team that somehow got through the MAC title game despite being short on talent. Kent State grinds and Jimmy Hall is a really good player for them, but outside of him, the Golden Flashes are at a big talent disadvantage here.

If you are Kent State, you have to know the only way you have a chance in a game like this is to pound it inside and slow the game down. There's no way Kent State should want to run with UCLA here.

UCLA is likely to win this one going away, and the Bruins have plenty of reasons to want to rest their stars late in the game here. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf are both at less than 100 percent now. They'll play again Saturday and that is a game that should be more competitive. 

On a neutral court where shooting backdrops are more difficult, this number is extremely high. That is especially true when you don't expect fouling late in the game with it being a blowout, and you expect one team to be trying to stall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames have been playing really fast all year. UIC ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Flames are good at attacking the rim and getting to the line. That's important with the new experimental rules in this tournament. Getting rid of 1 and 1's and putting in all 2 shot fouls will definitely lead to more points. UIC shoots over 71% from the line. 

Stony Brook tends to play at a fairly slow pace, but in their non-conference games they did get out and run with some teams. I think their tempo looks slower than it truly is based on Stony Brook playing in a conference where everyone stalls. 

Stony Brook shoots 72.2% from the line, which is a big help with the new rules. 

I think this one gets to 150, which gives us some value on the line here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the first round. South Dakota State ended the season playing very well, but the jump from playing Summit League competition to Gonzaga is massive.

South Dakota State scored at will through the Summit League play, but that is largely because no one in that conference is any good at defense. Take a look at how South Dakota State scored against teams in the non-conference slate. They only scored 58 against UC Irvine. They scored 59 against E Tennessee State. They scored 53 against Cal. 

Gonzaga has the second ranked defense in the country. The Bulldogs have so much athleticism on defense and they should hound South Dakota State here.

The move up to 156 points gives me plenty of value here. Gonzaga should score a lot here, but a total of 156 can be hard to reach when one team is struggling to score. I think 150 is about right.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Princeton Tigers get things tipped off in the Round of 64 with this battle. Princeton is a dangerous team given their unique style of play. The Tigers will look to slow the game down as much as possible.

Princeton played a number of games that were paced to less than 60 possessions this year. In fact, four of their last seven games have played to 59 possessions or slower. I think this will be another game that is that slow.

Notre Dame plays in the ACC where most of the teams try to push the pace. The Fighting Irish are one of the slowest teams in the league. In this one, Notre Dame will get to play their preferred style.

This one is on a neutral floor where shooting percentages are typically lower than normal. Neither team gets to the free throw line much at all. I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes were the fastest paced team in the Big Ten this year. Iowa had trouble finding opponents who wanted to run with them most of the year in the Big Ten. They won't have that same problem here.

South Dakota ranks 27th in the country in least time on average to put up a shot. The Coyotes are going to run with Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are 21st in that same category.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 11th in the nation in tempo. This team has been great at turning every game into a track meet this year. 

Eastern Washington is a great offense. They have shooters on the outside and a great scorer inside in Wiley. The Eagles have been able to shoot the ball well all year long. They generally play at a slower tempo, but their offense is good and their defense is very bad.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Plenty of pace and scoring chances in this one.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Rice Owls rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. San Francisco ranks as a slightly quicker than average team in terms of tempo.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

I am tracking a system where both teams play at an average tempo of 68 or higher and the home team shoots 42% or higher from the floor. If the total is set at 132.5 or higher in a game like this in the first two rounds of the smaller postseason tournaments, the over is 44-17 in the last 61 games. 

Here, we have a great shooting team in Rice playing on their home floor. The Owls will force the tempo and San Francisco isn't likely to stall the game out. Rice is the favorite and the better team, so I expect them to control the game.

A fast paced high scoring game here in this early small tournament game.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Utah Valley ranks 12th in the nation in overall tempo. They will force the pace in a big way here. Georgia Southern has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent all year.

Both teams are very good at getting to the line, and with two shot fouls every time the points should come in quickly here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies have had trouble with offensive efficiency all year. NC Central isn't a prolific offensive team by any means either. Both of these teams are significantly better on defense than they are on offense.

This game is played at UD Arena, and it has been a really good gym for unders in the past few years. The pressure of this game has led to some really low scoring contests in the First Four contests in recent years. 

I see two teams who defend well without fouling and two offenses that struggle with jump shots to start with. Add in the fact that this game is played at a new venue to them, and the nerves of the NCAA Tournament.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Tuesday Total DOMINATION* The Monmouth Hawks and Ole Miss Rebels meet in the first round of the NIT on Tuesday night. 

Monmouth ranks as the 22nd fastest paced team in the country. Ole Miss comes in as the 33rd quickest in the country. This game should be an all out track meet. Every year, these early NIT/CBI/CIT games are played at a much faster tempo than regular season games.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. It will make a few points of difference, and that's key here.

Look for a very high scoring game from two good free throw shooting squads. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of the Day* Cincinnati and SMU square off in the AAC title game on Sunday afternoon. These two teams play a very similar style and recent match ups between these two have been highly competitive. 

Cincinnati has one of the top 8 defenses in the country. The Bearcats make you work extremely hard to get good looks. SMU is also very good defensively.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of pace of play. The tempo should be slow all the way in this one. 

Long-term the under has been a great play in conference tournament finals. Both of these teams are playing for the third straight day, and in this spot in conference title games the under is 61% in the past ten years. That's a huge sample size, and a great winning percentage.

Look for a close game where the defenses play extremely well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Creighton/Villanova Total DOMINATION* The Creighton Blue Jays take on the Villanova Wildcats in the Big East Tournament final at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.

There isn't a building in the country better for unders than Madison Square Garden, especially when it comes to college players. The under is hitting at a little better than 65% in the last five years when MSG is a neutral site for college contests.

Villanova nearly lost on Friday night, and they should come out focused here. The Wildcats have the best defense in the conference. They are particularly good at defending without fouling (first in the country). They also do a great job defending beyond the arc. 

Creighton settles for a lot of jumpers, and I don't think that will be a good formula against this Villanova defense. 

Villanova is great at slowing the game down and I think they will dictate the pace here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Rhode Island Rams and Davidson Wildcats met twice in the regular season. They scored 129 in the first game. They scored 124 in regulation in the second game. 

Davidson plays at an average pace. Rhode Island is slowing things down of late. The Rams are consistently playing games to about 64 or 65 possessions. The Rams are also playing much better defense than they were earlier this year. Rhode Island is allowing only 0.95 points per possession.

Davidson relies heavily on three point field goal attempts. Rhode Island ranks third in the nation in 3 point field goal defense. Opponents are shooting only 29.2% from 3 against the Rams.

Davidson's defense is much improved from a year ago, and their shooting has been worse.

This game is played at PPG Paints Arena, which is a hockey arena. No doubt this is a tougher shooting backdrop than these two teams are accustomed to.

I had this one four points lower. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles and Weber State Wildcats meet in the semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament here. I think these are the best two teams in the conference. Both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. 

The two regular season games finished at 154 and 137 points. Both had a slow tempo, but they shot well and had a foul fest in the 154 point game. 

This game means so much to both teams that I think the tempo slows down even more. A neutral floor helps as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Nevada has the best offense in the Mountain West, and it isn't even close. Fresno State fouls a bunch, and Nevada is great at getting to the line. 

Fresno State won both regular season meetings, but Nevada is the better team. Nevada is favored by six and this one has the potential for a late foul fest that would help the over in a big way. 

I had this one at 150. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Florida State was able to get the tempo they wanted in those games.

Notre Dame is excellent offensively, but they aren't very good on defense. Florida State will get points in transition, and they should get second chance opportunities as well.

This is played at Barclays Center in New York. The over has done really well here in a small sample size.

I had 154.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* This one is way off most people's radars, but I think this one holds some significant value. 

The Toyota Center is a very good under gym. It's a spacious arena and it is known for being difficult for college shooters. That is especially true when you consider the SWAC teams play in small gyms normally. Now, they'll be playing in front of a massive gym with almost no people in it. That's a good scenario for unders in the long term.

In this game, Alcorn State and Southern meet. The two regular season games between these two both stayed under the total. One finished at 138 and one at 135. Alcorn State slowed the pace down in both contests. 

While these teams aren't great defensively, they are better than most SWAC teams. The tough shooting backdrop and a high number make this a good value play. I had this lined at 136 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UC Irvine has the best defense in the conference. Irvine is good at controlling the pace and they want to play slowly. Long Beach State started the year out playing fast, but of late they have definitely slowed down.

One of the regular season meetings was 149 and one was 135. This game is played at Honda Center which has been a great under venue over the years. That alone should lower the posted total by at least 3 or 4 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers beat the Butler Bulldogs in impressive fashion last night. They won by slowing the game down and playing some great defense. That's how they'll have to do it here against Creighton as well.

Creighton is a jump shot heavy team, and this game is played in Madison Square Garden, which is a very tough arena for shooters. The under is hitting at better than 65% in the last 50 college games played at MSG.

Xavier and Creighton played one game under this total and one over this total this year. The shooting numbers were really bad in one of the games and excellent in the other. I think it is unlikely we'll see excellent shooting numbers in this game played at Madison Square Garden.

Look for both defenses to come ready to play. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* PPG Paints Arena is a hockey arena in Pittsburgh, and this place definitely has a bad shooting backdrop. It is hard for shooters to shoot a high percentage here.

George Washington lost twice in the regular season to Richmond, but I think they have a shot here. They will slow the game down.

Richmond's last four games of the year have been their slowest paced games, so I believe they will be ok with the slower pace.

I had this one at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boise State Broncos have played a whopping 27 straight games that have gone over this posted total. Their first lined game of the year stayed under against College of Charleston, and every game since has gone over this total.

Boise State is first in the league in getting to the line. Chandler Hutchison's massive improvement as a player has really helped this offense thrive this year. The Broncos have several guys who can create on their own.

San Diego State shot the ball horribly last night. Expect some improvement tonight against a Boise State defense that isn't very good. The Aztecs aren't nearly as good defensively this year as they have been in the past either. 

Look for Boise State to have a 28th straight game go over this number. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of WEEK* The Providence Friars take on the Creighton Blue Jays on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City. 

Madison Square Garden is probably the best under gym in the country, especially when it comes to college teams playing on the court. It's a distinct shooting backdrop that is so much different than everything else the players are accustomed to, that it can really throw things off on the jumpers. 

The under is 49-27 in the last 76 neutral site games played at Madison Square Garden in college hoops (note this doesn't count St. John's games when they are the home team). 

Creighton is a jump shot heavy team and I don't expect them to knock down as many jumpers here. They were only 8/24 from 3 point range in their game at MSG last year. 

Providence has slowed the tempo down against Creighton twice this year. The Friars have a good defense, and they don't want to get into a track meet with Creighton here. 

In a game that means so much to both teams, it is interesting to have a lined total several points higher than either regular season meeting finished. That is especially true with this game being played at Madison Square Garden.

Take the under big. TOP Total of Week

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Northwestern Wildcats met twice in the regular season. Those two games finished at 134 and 129 points. This one deserves to be a bit lower since it is a neutral site game, but this total is too low.

Both of these teams excel at offensive rebounding. In one of the meetings between these two this year, both teams had 20 or more offensive rebounds. That's an astounding number, and when you are getting that many second chance opportunities, I have to take an over that is this low.

Both teams have played almost all of their games this year over this total. Look for this one to get into the upper 120's.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Cal Poly Mustangs are very good at slowing down the pace of the game. Cal Poly will work hard to slow things down in this one. 

UC Davis pushes the tempo when they can, but the Aggies aren't efficient at all on offense. UC Davis is excellent on defense. The Aggies have allowed only 0.968 points per possession in Big West play this year.

Honda Center is the venue for this game, and this is a huge hockey arena that is tough for shooters. That is especially true when it is players from a small conference like the Big West where they are accustomed to playing in a gym with 3,000 seats. The Honda Center will be mostly empty here, and a huge arena with a bunch of empty seats is a good equation for an under.

The two regular season meetings were 144 and 132. Interestingly, the total was set at 134.5 and 137 in those two games. Why would this be higher when this is played in a tough shooting gym and we know that games are generally lower scoring with a lot on the line? This is a win or go home game for both.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The MTSU Blue Raiders are great at controlling the pace of the game. MTSU is going to slow this game down. They were successful in playing a very slow pace against UTSA in their regular season game and they should be again here.

UTSA is a team that typically plays to the pace of their opponent, which is good for us here. UTSA is also the worst shooting team in Conference USA by a wide margin. The Roadrunners aren't likely to find many easy shots against a MTSU defense that allowed only 0.9378 points per possession in conference action.

The first game between these two finished at 128 points, and that is a little misleading. That game was an epic foul fest in the last minute to get the game to 128 points. It was pacing to around 110 or 115 points for a long time.

This is a tough gym for the shooters, and this is an early start, which is good for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a terrible team. They have no depth and they have to slow the pace down as much as possible. They have successfully slowed the game down twice against Rice. The first meeting finished at 119, and the second finished at 143 after an overtime session. It was 134 before the extra session.

Rice shoots more 3 pointers than anyone else in the conference. That's a bad thing for them here as Legacy Arena has a tough shooters backdrop and the under has been great here in the past. Last year, Rice made only 2 of their 18 three point field goal attempts in their conference tournament game in this building.

The large spread is a big help as well. In fact, neutral site games in the postseason played with a spread of 11.5 or larger have gone nearly 60% to the under in the last five years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game fits into several nice under systems. First, it's being played in Legacy Arena, which has been a solid under gym. It's a huge gym holding more than 17,000 people, and that's a negative for shooters since almost no one will be in the seats. It creates a more difficult shooting backdrop and an awkward environment in general.

UTSA is the worst shooting team in the league. Western Kentucky fouls the least of any team in the league. The Hilltoppers slow the pace down, and UTSA plays to the pace of their opponent most of the time.

The early start time is a good thing for the under based on historical trends as well. In addition, Western Kentucky relies heavily on 3 pointers, and teams that rely heavily on the 3 ball have been good under plays on neutral courts in the past.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange and Miami Hurricanes meet in Brooklyn for the ACC Tournament. This is a new venue to both teams, and unfamiliarity isn't good for shooting numbers on the whole.

The last five times these two teams have met the game has stayed under this posted total. In fact, the highest scoring game during that span was a 128 point final. I don't see any reason to expect a neutral floor where the guys haven't played to help get this one over the total.

Both of these teams turn it over quite a bit, which hurts offensive efficiency and helps the under. Miami is slowing the tempo down to a crawl in their last few games, and Syracuse's zone slows the game down as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs and St. Mary's Gaels played two regular season games this year. Gonzaga shot over 60% in one of them and 52.3% in the other. 

St. Mary's Coach Randy Bennett said to the press that he has been stressing defense in a major way before this game. He knows the team needs to slow Gonzaga's offense down both from a tempo standpoint and just in general make them take tougher shots. 

In the long term, taking an under when both teams just played the day before has been very profitable. In fact, with a total of 135.5 or lower, the under is hitting at 59% in the past ten years in this situation. 

A neutral court is a big help too. These players aren't as accustomed to this shooting backdrop. 

St. Mary's will slow the game down, and I think the shooting percentages will be lower than the first two meetings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Sacramento State Hornets play at the slowest pace in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Idaho State and Sacramento State's first game was played to a pace of only 62 possessions, which is very slow.

Sacramento State has seen six of their last seven games stay under this posted total. They are the better team here, and I think they will dictate the style of play in this one.

This one is played at Reno at a neutral court. That knocks the total down a couple points since the teams aren't accustomed to the arena or the shooting backdrop.

I expect a sloppy game here, and I think the total should be in the upper 130's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles and Howard Bison meet in the first game of the MEAC Tournament in Norfolk. This game is played at the Norfolk Scope Arena. This arena has been noted for for being a good under gym in the past. 

There won't be many people in the gym, and in a big gym like this one that is generally a bad thing for shooters. 

The first meeting between these two was 153 with shooting numbers much higher than their season averages, which is what gives us extra value on today's number.

Both teams have played slowly this year, and Howard is one of the worst offenses in college basketball. This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In general, playing overs in the postseason can be a little risky. Still, there is a big difference between playing overs on a neutral floor and playing overs on a regular home court of one of the teams. 

In this case, the game is being played at Vermont. Vermont is a tremendous team led by star freshman Anthony Lamb. Trae Bell-Haynes is a star at the point guard spot as well. Vermont is averaging a really impressive 1.154 points per possession in the conference this year. 

New Hampshire is averaging 1.082 points per possession in the conference as well. 

Both regular season meetings went over this posted total. While both teams do play slowly, they are good offensively and this total is extremely low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I understand why this line has been bet down, but it is too low for me to pass up the over now. Many are seeing this as a chance to bet the under based on both teams playing multiple days in a row, but the past history of these two teams suggests this number is too low.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished 83-79 and 72-66. The game that finished 72-66 saw both teams shoot it far worse than normal from the field. East Tennessee State has been able to push the pace in both games, but their shots weren't falling. Expect more of their shots to be falling here. 

This game sits at the 5 or 5.5 point spread range, which means a late foul fest is definitely a possibility. That is especially true since this is the game that decides who goes to the NCAA Tournament.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a win or go home game for these teams from the MAAC. Siena gets the home court advantage here. This is played at the Times Union Center, which has been one of the best under venues in college basketball the last few seasons.

Fairfield was pushing the pace as fast as they could early in the year. The Stags have decided to change things up lately. Fairfield has played 3 of their last 4 games to a pace of 65 possessions or less. That's after playing most of their games to a tempo of 75 or higher early in the year. 

The most recent meeting between these two teams was a 63-54 final score. I don't think this one will be that low, but I do expect a relatively low scoring game.

Both of these teams are much improved defensively from a year ago, and these defenses should come through in this big game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats and Montana State Bobcats are similar teams. Both of these teams shoot the ball very well. Weber State ranks among the best in the country in effective field goal percentage. Montana State shoots it really well from long range.

Both of these teams are really weak on defense. Montana State ranks in the top five in most fouls committed in the country, and Weber State shoots 76% from the line in Big Sky play.

This is a late conference game that doesn't mean a lot to either team. This a conference where you have to win the league to get a NCAA Tournament berth. 

Expect a relatively quick tempo and good shooting.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina/Duke rivalry is better than any other rivalry in college basketball. Duke will look to slow the pace down some here. The Blue Devils successfully slowed things down in the first meeting and it was played at only 68 possessions. 

Duke and Carolina played two games in the 140's last year, and I think this total is inflated based on how the first game went. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have shot the ball extremely well against the weakest defenses in Conference USA so far this year. FIU is by far the worst defense in the conference. 

UAB scored 85 points in a losing effort at FIU in the first meeting this year. If they get close to that number here, the over should be good. 

FIU has picked up their tempo in recent weeks. They have absolutely nothing left to play for in the regular season, and games involving teams playing for nothing have historically been much higher scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valpo Crusaders are without star player Alec Peters, who is arguably the best player in the conference. Without their leading scorer, I expect Valpo to try to win with their defense, which is excellent.

Milwaukee plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Horizon League. Milwaukee shoots a bunch of 3's, and Valpo is great at guarding beyond the arc. 

Both games in the regular season stayed below this total. This game is played at a hockey arena where the shooting backdrop is very tough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In the last ten years, games between two teams with a 55% win rate or less in the final two games of the regular season have gone over 58% of the time. 

This one fits in nicely to that system as Marshall loves to run and gun, and North Texas has nothing to play for. North Texas has sped up their pace of play drastically throughout the course of the year, and I don't see them trying to slow things down here.

The tempo here is likely to be 80 possessions or faster. Marshall should tear up this really bad North Texas defense. I think Marshall has a chance to hit 100 in this one. 

The over is high, but not high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are better on defense than offense. Additionally, these two both rank in the bottom ten in the country in free throws attempted. That is a big help when you have a low under like this one.

The two regular season meetings were 119 and 130. I had this number at 124. This being played at a neutral site is a good thing for the under.

Santa Clara and San Francisco are major rivals, and I think this sets up as a slow paced game between two teams desperate to win and move on in the tournament.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wichita State is clearly the best team in this conference. They should win this game and then they'll have to play again tomorrow. That should make them let off the gas a little quicker than normal here.

The Scottrade Center has been the single best under arena in the country in the past ten years. This is a terrible backdrop for shooters.

Missouri State will work to slow the game down as long as they can in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes have been firing on all cylinders offensively of late. The Utes rank ninth in the country in effective field goal percentage. 

Stanford's defense has really fallen apart of late. Colorado torched them for 91 points in a slow paced game in their last contest. The Cardinal have been much worse on defense away from home.

Both of these teams have played relatively quick when they get the opportunity to. There are several teams who slow the tempo in the Pac 12, but here both teams will get a chance to move quickly. 

I had this one several points higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers have had some extremely low scoring games this year. Northern Iowa is averaging only 0.936 points per possession in the conference. The Panthers rely way too much on Koch and Morgan. 

Northern Iowa has scored 55 points or less in 5 of their last 8 games. This Panthers offense is really struggling right now.

The Scottrade Center hosts the MVC Tournament, and the under is now 53-29 in the last 82 games played there. It's a terrible gym for shooters.

Missouri State plays very slowly and relies on outside shooting, which is a bad fit for this gym.

I think this is a tight very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes and Drexel Dragons meet at North Charleston Arena for this first round CAA Tournament matchup.

I've followed a really nice system for conference tournaments on a neutral floor. When there is a game between two teams with a winning percentage of 32% or less, the under is an impressive 29-10 in the last 39 situations. This game fits nicely into that system.

North Charleston Arena is a big place that isn't kind to shooters in general. These teams have never played there before. That definitely helps the under on the whole.

I had this a few points lower. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland State Vikings have been great at keeping games low scoring for a very long time. Cleveland State always plays at a slow tempo, and the Vikings have the third best defense in the Horizon League. 

Youngstown State is a high scoring team, but they are actually a little worse on offense and slightly better on defense this year than they have been in recent years. 

The two meetings this year between these teams finished at 131 and 124 points. In fact, the last 12 meetings between these two teams have stayed below this posted total. Most of them haven't even been close to this total. 

This one is played on a neutral floor and Joe Louis Arena is noted for a bad shooting backdrop with it being a hockey arena. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Brown Bears and Columbia Lions met earlier this year and the posted total was 157.5. The game finished at 161 points. Why would this total be posted so much lower than the first meeting? I see some value here.

Brown has by far the worst defense in the Ivy League. The Bears have managed to make a lot of subpar offenses look really good this year. 

Columbia prefers to play quickly, but they have been slowed down by their last few opponents. They'll get to play quickly here. I think Columbia's recent low scoring games gives us extra value here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Princeton Tigers have been an under machine of late. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 games, and the one that went over went over by half a point. Princeton has slowed their tempo down drastically as they are short handed. It was worked out really well for the Tigers.

Harvard is the second best team in the league, and they are the only ones with a chance to catch Princeton. The Crimson are the second best defense in the Ivy League. They are allowing only 0.96 points per possession.

Princeton is the best defense in the league. They are allowing only 0.895 points per possession. 

The first meeting between these two saw a final of 57-56. Neither of these teams get to the line much, and with a slow pace and good defense I expect a very low scoring game. 

In the Ivy League since 2005, games between two teams with a 10-2 record or better in the league who are matched up against each other in March have stayed under the total in 7 out of 8 contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal Poly Mustangs put up a bunch of long range jumpers. They have a lot of young guys who were struggling shooting the ball early in the year, but they are shooting it well of late. Cal Poly coasted to an 85-71 at CS Northridge a few weeks ago.

Cal State Northridge plays at the fastest pace of anyone in the conference. Northridge is 329th in the country in defensive efficiency. Cal Poly is 331st in the country in defensive efficiency. There should be a lot of open jumpers in this game. 

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

Both teams foul way more than the average team. Northridge ranks first in the nation in free throw attempts per game. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves and Drake Bulldogs meet in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on Thursday night. This tournament is played at the Scottrade Center.

There aren't many places with a worse shooting backdrop than the Scottrade Center. The background here is far different than the average gym, and it has made shooting percentages very low here and the under is a whopping 52-28 in the last 80 games played in this arena.

These two played last week at Drake and the posted total was 144 or 144.5. Why would the total be higher when played on a neutral court that is terrible for shooters? Also, this is win or go home time, which usually slows down the pace of play as well.

These are two poor shooting teams, and in this arena I have to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers and Tulane Green Wave played to a pace of 76 possessions in their game earlier this year. Ugly shooting numbers for Tulane kept that game to just 139 points total. There were also only 34 free throws attempted in that game (solidly below the average).

Tulane is dead last in the conference in two point field goal percentage defense. Memphis goes to the rim a lot, and I think they'll get a lot of easy shots here. 

Tulane plays at the fastest pace of any team in the conference. Memphis is likely to be glad to push the pace and run it up on Tulane after some disappointing losses of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have picked up their tempo a lot down the stretch. Western Kentucky plays relatively slowly, but they have scored at a very efficient rate at home.

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

I don't see any reason to expect much defense here. Both teams are giving up 1.11 points per possession on the year defensively. They both rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in that category.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners have been very inefficient shooting the ball this year, but their shooting numbers are slowly rising of late. UTSA has also been playing quicker in recent games. 

Charlotte plays extremely fast. They rank in the top 25 in the country in pace of play. They will try to dictate the pace here, and I think they'll be able to.

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

I think this one should get into the 150's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. There aren't many places with a worse shooting backdrop than the Scottrade Center. The background here is far different than the average gym, and it has made shooting percentages very low here and the under is a whopping 52-28 in the last 80 games played in this arena.

Evansville and Indiana State are averaging 0.99 and 0.96 points per possession, so these are two of the worst offenses in the conference to start with. Add in the really tough neutral floor and I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Niagara Purple Eagles met twice in the regular season. The final score of those two games finished at 159 points and 170 points. That alone would suggest this total is about right. However, if you consider that this is a win or go home game and this is played in a terrible venue for shooters, this total is too high.

This is played in Albany at the Times Union Center. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 games at this building when it is a neutral site. Shooters have a rough time here consistently.

Since both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency, 165 is a lot of points to have to reach with a poor gym for shooters.

Take the under. 

*4 Star VCU/Dayton Totals MONEY* The Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams rank number one and number two in the Atlantic 10 in defensive efficiency. The first game between these two finished at 141 points after a major foul fest in the last few minutes. It was pacing for a score far lower than that.

This game fits a nice late regular season under system where both teams have a great (64% or better) winning percentage and both teams have a lot to play for. In these spots, the defenses generally play well. This system is hitting 56.5% for the past ten years. 

I see a close game here, and I think this one stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This isn't a game I would play the over on during the middle of the regular season. This is a low over though between two teams who have little to play for right now. They are in the last week of the regular season, and they care a lot more about the conference tournament than this game. 

This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

The first meeting between these two went comfortably over the posted total.

UConn has been shooting the ball really well of late. The Huskies defense has regressed of late. East Carolina is much better offensively at home.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

UMass has played really fast all year. The Minutemen have finally started to shoot the ball a little better of late. They continue to foul at a really high rate, so Richmond will be on the line a bunch here.

Richmond is playing much faster this year. They rank in the top 75 in the country in tempo. 

UMass has seen 7 of their last 8 games go over this total. Richmond has seen 7 of their last 10 go over the total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Mason Patriots really shoot the ball well. They have sped up their tempo a great deal as well. This is a team that is playing faster than the average team in the country, where they previously were a team that stalled. 

Duquesne is one of the fastest paced teams in the country every single year, and they are once again very fast paced this season. They also have the worst defense in the A 10, and George Mason should shoot it really well against them. 

This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado State Rams are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. This time of the year you can find games where teams have nothing to play for, but Colorado State has to keep winning games. 

The fact that they need this game means it is more likely they will be invested on the defensive end of the floor. Colorado State is allowing only 0.996 points per possession so far this year in Mountain West play. 

Wyoming loves to run, but the Cowboys aren't very efficient on offense. They rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency.

The first meeting between these two finished at 151, and that was with 57 free throw attempts. My numbers had this game a few points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Hurricanes have really slowed down the pace in their recent games. Their last five games have been played to a pace of 63 or less, which is very slow. 

Virginia Tech has slowed down considerably of late as well. The Hokies are without one of their best players in Chris Clarke. They aren't particularly deep, and I think this has been a conscious effort to slow things down. 

The first game saw the final get to 142 with both teams scoring a bunch at the end in a foul fest. The game had paced to a much lower number. In that one, Clarke had 13 points and 5 boards.

Miami ranks 18th in the country in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams both rank in the top 30 in the country in defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have been very consistent at slowing the game down this year. This is their last home game, and I think they'll fight hard for this game. That should mean they work hard on the defensive end. 

Arkansas Little Rock has seen 12 of their last 16 games stay under this total. Georgia Southern has had 9 overs and 7 unders versus this line.

Little Rock's defensive numbers are better at home, and they have played two of their last three home games to the two slowest paced games they have played in the league all year.

This number has been steamed upward. In this case, I'm willing to fade the steam.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the first game of the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament for these two teams. As a general rule, conference tournaments have been better to under players down through the years.

NJIT has decided to slow the tempo down in a big way in recent weeks. NJIT has been able to hold Lipscomb to a much slower tempo than Lipscomb usually plays in both of their meetings this season. I trust NJIT to try to keep the tempo low here once again. 

The first two meetings this year were 128 points and 150 points. The one that finished at 150 points saw 25 made three pointers between the two teams, and yet it still finished nine points below this total. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over quite a bit in the halfcourt sets, which definitely helps the under.

Take the under here.