*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears have a new coach in Ryan Ridder this year. Ridder has been pushing the pace to the extreme ever since he has been a head coach. He got Bethune Cookman to play at a top 20 pace in the country. He got UT Martin to play at a top 20 tempo in the country. Ridder has Mercer playing at the 37th quickest average possession length right now. 

Mercer has also played against some very slow paced team so far this year. The Stetson, South Carolina, West Georgia, and South Alabama type opponents really look to slow the pace down. 

Chicago State is a terrible team. They rank 81st in overall tempo. They are 347th out of 364 in shot selection allowed. They have allowed 85 points or more in 5 of their last 9 games. They foul a lot and are terrible on the defensive boards. 

Mercer is 282nd in defensive efficiency. The Bears should be pushing the pace to the extreme and with such a fast pace I think Chicago State can do enough to get this one over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 5th in defensive efficiency. VCU has been clamping down opponents all year long. VCU has allowed 61 points or fewer in regulation in eight of their last nine games. 

Colorado State has lost a ton of offensive talent in the last couple years. Colorado State is struggling to get good looks this year. They are just 273rd in offensive shot selection. Colorado State is still looking for a team leader and an identity on the offensive end. The Rams are 54th in shot selection allowed, and they are 64th in defensive efficiency. They have been playing some very good defense.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are 343rd out of 364 teams in the country in tempo. Providence doesn't want to push the pace at all. St. Bonaventure is 308th in tempo, so they are happy to play at a slow pace as well. This game should be played almost exclusively in the half court.

Providence has Bryce Hopkins back, but their offense is too stagnant. They rely on isolation basketball too much. The Friars are a good defensive team and they are good at allowing only one shot for the opposition.

St. Bonaventure is 52nd in defensive efficiency in the country. They have allowed 56 points or less in three straight games. On offense they rely on getting to the hoop, but Providence protects the paint well.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are 318th in defensive efficiency. Northern Arizona is 344th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Arizona doesn't play fast, but they are so weak defensively that their games can get pretty high on a regular basis.

Pepperdine started the year playing very slowly, but they have definitely sped up their tempo of late. Pepperdine has also faced a bunch of really good defenses. In fact, KenPom has them facing the 83rd ranked defenses on a strength of schedule basis thus far. The offenses their defense has gone up against are ranked just 231st. This game is a flip for Pepperdine where they will be playing against a team that is much worse on defense and is serviceable on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are very weak offensively this year. Tulsa is shooting 28% from 3 point range on the season. UCF's defense is typically excellent in the paint and defending midrange jumpers, the way to try to beat them is with 3's. Tulsa seems unlikely to be able to do that. Tulsa is 356th in the country in open 3 rate.

UCF is mixing in some zone on defense at times. The Knights have forced turnovers at a pretty high rate, but still not fouled much this year. 

Tulsa has slowed their pace down some this year. They shouldn't want a track meet game here.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks are 358th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Alabama State Hornets are 312th. The last two seasons, Alabama State has finished 363rd and 362nd in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. These are two bad teams, but they are especially bad on offense.

The pace could be relatively quick in this game, but I'm going with the defenses to have the upper hand and the offenses to take a lot of low quality shots.

Alabama State has given up a lot of points this year, but that was against the likes of UNLV, SMU, Cincinnati, and LSU. The defense should look better against UT Martin. 

UT Martin has been good defending beyond the arc and Alabama State likes to take a lot of long range jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Michigan Wolverines square off at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

These are two teams who are improved this season and have new big name head coaches. Both Calipari and May have a history of having very strong defensive teams as well.

Arkansas is 75th in offensive efficiency so far this year. They are 19th in defensive efficiency. Michigan is 43rd in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of the teams play slightly quicker than average, but both are better defensively and are great at defending without fouling. 

These two teams have had some trouble with turnovers offensively too. I think the efficiency numbers on offense could be lower here.

Madison Square Garden is one of the very best under venues in the country. This is a tough shooting backdrop and under bettors have done extremely well on MSG games in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas State has been known as a defensive team for a bunch of years now. Texas State ranks in the bottom one percent of all teams in offensive spacing of the floor. This team isn't good in their halfcourt offensive sets, but they also are weak in transition. Texas State is scrappy though and doesn't give up a lot of good looks.

The Rice Owls have turned into a very good defensive team. Rice is 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Owls are just 259th in tempo as well. Texas State is 325th in average possession length.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Canisius Golden Griffins are one of the very worst defenses in the country. Canisius is 359th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Canisius has faced only the 254th toughest slate of opposing offenses. They have faced the 99th toughest slate of defenses. Their raw stats are a bit skewed toward lower scoring games than they should be.

Siena has given up 68 points or more in all but one game so far this year. This isn't a good defensive team either. The Saints games tend to have a lot of free throws because of their aggression both on offense and defense.

A total set this low with poor defenses is pretty rare.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates are 316th in spacing on offense this year. East Carolina has struggled to score in recent games. The Pirates have played the 344th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. South Carolina is absolutely one of the best defenses they have seen thus far.

East Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. They will try to slow the game down. They rank 30th in shot selection allowed, and their defense has improved through the season.

South Carolina is a below average paced team as well. The Gamecocks are 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. They protect the paint well, and East Carolina isn't a good three point shooting team.

The last two years these teams have met and the combined totals have been 120 and 130 points. I think around 130 is where this will land as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mercyhurst Lakers are a new Division One team. It's clear that this team is going to struggle to score this year. They are 322nd in the nation in shot selection. They are 347th in offensive efficiency. They have faced a relatively easy slate of defenses and a fairly difficult slate of opposing offenses in the early going.

Lafayette is 301st in offensive efficiency. The Leopards are 311th in offensive rebounding percentage. Lafayette is 272nd in the country in overall tempo rating.

Mercyhurst is 356th in average possession length. This team is stalling about as much as anyone. They are up against a Lafayette defense that is 94th in effective field goal percentage defense.

A slow paced halfcourt battle between two teams who settle for a lot of bad shots here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A rare noon eastern start time during the week here. Lipscomb has really impressed me this year. I think the Bison can have a very good season. Lipscomb has really turned up the defense this year. The Bison are 91st in  the country in defensive efficiency so far this year. Lipscomb is 78th in shot selection allowed. Lipscomb is also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. The Bison do an excellent job defending without fouling.

Southeast Missouri State is a much weaker team. They are 329th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 351st in the country in shot selection. They have improved to be about an average defense so far this year. Southeast Missouri State often struggles with putting the opposition on the line too much, but Lipscomb is bottom 15 in the country in free throw attempts/field goal attempts.

An early start time and a projected blowout in favor of Lipscomb should help the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have been an under machine this year. Seton Hall lost their top scorers from a year ago and they are clearly struggling badly on offense. They are 320th in offensive efficiency in the country. Seton Hall hasn't scored more than 63 points in regulation in any of their first eight games of the season. 

NJIT is dreadful on offense. They are 341st in shot selection in the country. They haven't played a defense as good as Seton Hall yet this year. NJIT has been held to 57 points or fewer four times already this year. 

These teams are 311th and 358th in tempo. This game should be played at a snail's pace. 

Seton Hall should get the lead and control the pace here. They might top 63 points here, but I think they'll hold NJIT to a very low number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 359th in average offensive possession length. Coastal Carolina is stalling in a big way on offense. They are a big team and they are looking to turn these games into halfcourt battles. Coastal is 292nd in shot selection this year, so they are struggling to get good looks. They are good on defense though. Coastal is 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Campbell is 247th in overall tempo, so the Fighting Camels don't move very quickly either. It's only fitting I guess. Campbell is a team that virtually never gets second chances, but they are great on the defensive glass.

Five of Coastal Carolina's seven contests have been 128 points or lower. I think this one stays low scoring too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rider Broncs have been a really good under team this year. Rider is taking some terrible shots on a consistent basis. Rider is 353rd in shot selection in the country. The Broncs are bottom 15 in the country in shot quality on offense. The Rider defense is actually pretty good. They are 148th in shot selection allowed. Rider is good at defending without fouling.

Fairfield has changed up the way they play. The Stags is short on playmakers on offense. They are 351st in effective field goal percentage offense. Fairfield is playing to try to win lower scoring contests. They are 274th in overall tempo.

Rider is 348th in average possession length. The Broncs also waste a lot of possessions with turnovers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duquesne Dukes rank 108th in shot selection in the country. Duquesne is attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line more than the average team. The Dukes should live at the line against a St. Peter's team that ranks among the ten most foul happy teams in the country. They have been among the 25 most foul happy teams in the country for three straight years. Duquesne's shooting numbers should positively regress toward the mean. 

St. Peter's does two things on offense. They look to shoot the 3 point jumper, and they attack the offensive boards and get fouled a bunch. Duquesne is terrible at defending the 3 point shot. The Dukes are also a team that fouls a bunch. 

Duquesne has played four games at neutral sites and that typically lowers the shooting percentages. This is an ultra low total, and the Dukes want to push the pace when they can.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lipscomb Bison are 89th in shot selection allowed. They are also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. It is very hard to get to the line against Lipscomb. This team is much improved defensively. Lipscomb has also slowed their pace down quite a bit from a year ago.

Chattanooga gets to the line quite a bit and shoots free throws well. I just don't think they can rely on those trips to the line as much against Lipscomb. Chattanooga's last three Division I opponents have all ranked in the top 30 in tempo, so their recent scores are inflated. 

These two teams met last year and the final total was 150, and Lipscomb has been much slower and much improved defensively this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kent State has been able to slow the pace down against everyone this year. Kent State got Auburn to play at just 63 possessions. Kent State pulled Louisiana and UC Irvine into slower paced games as well.

Kent State has major offensive problems. They are outside the top 250 in effective field goal percentage offense. They just don't have a go to guy on offense. Kent State is excellent on defense though. The Golden Flashes contest shots well and they are good on the defensive boards.

Kennesaw State is a fast paced team, but they aren't as fast as a year ago. I think their totals are being inflated a bit. They are taller this year, and their length has helped their defense a lot.

This neutral court has been tough on shooters thus far.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams rank in the top 28 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Lanier has this Rice team improving dramatically on defense from what they have been in recent seasons. The Owls have slowed the pace down as well. 

These two teams have done a great job slowing teams down from beyond the three point line, and both of these teams do take a lot of long range jumpers. I see this helping the under, especially with this game being played in a neutral court in Nassau.

I think this total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 348th in average possession length in the country. They are doing a great job slowing the pace down. App State was second in the country at defending without fouling last year, and they are third this year in that same statistic. That's important because UNC Wilmington has relied on getting to the line to be efficient on offense this year.

UNC Wilmington scored just 59 points on Colgate and 69 on Sam Houston the last couple years. They are without their top two scoring options from a year ago. UNC Wilmington has slowed their pace down a lot in recent games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini are first in the country in shot selection allowed. This is a good defense that is forcing opponents into difficult looks. Arkansas is 63rd in that same metric.

Arkansas is 7th in defensive efficiency overall. Illinois is 17th. These two teams are 32nd and 83rd in offensive efficiency.

There's no doubt the pace will be quick in this game, but I like the defenses to make things tough enough on the opposing offense to keep the game under this high total. 

Both teams are top 17 in the country in defending without fouling. 

This is a neutral court game which is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have played five straight games under this total. Richmond has seen all but one of those games finish with 127 points or fewer in regulation. The Spiders are 276th in average possession length, so they are clearly looking to slow the game down. Richmond shoots it poorly from 3 point range, and they get virtually no second chance points.

Ball State's offense has struggled of late. They were held to 59 points at home by Detroit. They put up just 63 against Eastern Kentucky. The Cardinals rely on getting to the free throw line. In the past three full seasons Richmond has been top 50 in defending without fouling.

This is a neutral court game which is a positive.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This version of the Charleston Cougars is a whole lot different than last year's version. Chris Mack is the new head coach. He doesn't have this team pushing the pace nearly as much as Pat Kelsey did. Charleston is 251st in shot selection this year so far as well. They aren't getting very good shots.

Northern Kentucky is 255th in overall tempo. Northern Kentucky is 345th in the nation in shot selection. Every Division One game of Northern Kentucky has finished with 136 total points or fewer. Northern Kentucky has consistently been a good defense under Coach Horn. They mix in zone defenses and zone pressure to actually slow the game down.

I think this line is too high based on Charleston's history from the past couple seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have played three Division One opponents this year. All three of them rank 75th or faster in tempo so far this season. Now, LA Tech plays a Richmond team that is 254th in average possession length. Richmond is back to playing very slowly.

Richmond scored just 67 points against Florida Tech last game. Richmond could score only 48 against Charlotte. They had just 61 points in regulation against Bucknell. The Spiders get virtually no second chance points.

LA Tech is 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a really good defensive team. They can sometimes struggle on the defensive glass, but Richmond isn't the team that generally takes advantage of that weakness.

This is a neutral site game where unders have had the edge in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SE Louisiana Lions are 299th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that really struggles to get open looks. They don't get to the free throw line much, and they don't get many second chance points either. 

Gardner Webb turns it over too much on offense. They are learning a new offense under a new head coach. Gardner Webb has faced the 15th toughest slate of offenses so far this year, and overall I've liked what I've seen from their defense. This team is focusing on defense first this season.

This is an early season tournament on a neutral floor (Hard Rock Riviera) that has been good for under bettors in the past. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans are 314th in average possession length in the country. Long Beach State is 338th in average possession length. These are two very slow paced teams. I would expect this game to be played in the halfcourt. 

UNC Greensboro is 318th in the nation in shot selection. Long Beach State is 350th in the nation in shot selection (that is bottom 3%). These two teams settle for a lot of bad looks. Their defenses hold opponents to 80th in shot selection and 159th. The defenses are stronger than the offenses for both teams.

This is a late night game in Las Vegas at a neutral site. I think this has the potential to be a very ugly contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Hampshire Wildcats have completely changed their style of play. They have slowed down drastically from last year. They started this year looking pretty fast paced again, but they have slowed things down a bunch in their last few games. Nathan Davis' team just doesn't have enough offensive weapons. New Hampshire was 20th in average possession length last year, and they are 267th in average possession length this year. 

Trey Woodyard is one of the most important players to this New Hampshire team, and he has missed the last three games. They have slowed things down even more without him.

Columbia is playing a bit slower this year, and they are playing much better defense. They are 80th in shot selection allowed after being outside the top 200 last year. Columbia has been held to 58 points or fewer in four of their last six against Division One opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons are bottom 20 in the nation in tempo. Drexel almost never gets to the free throw line so they are reliant on shooting it well from the floor. The Dragons lost both Amari Williams and Justin Moore from last year's team, and they were two of their key guys.

Fort Wayne has played mainly above average tempo teams, and Drexel is easily the slowest pace team they have played so far this year. The Mastadons are great at the free throw line, but Drexel has been elite at defending without fouling in the last few seasons. Fort Wayne sometimes has problems with fouling too much on defense, but as mentioned before Drexel very rarely gets to the charity stripe.

An early site neutral game that tips off early in the afternoon.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very rare 10:30 am eastern start time. For Portland, this is a 7:30 am body clock start time. They have had several days here to get used to the time change, but this is a very early start time for everyone here. The earliest of starts have trended a bit under the total long term. 

Early season neutral site games have gone under the total at a good rate over the last 15 years as well. This is a high total with an early start on a neutral floor.

Portland has slowed their pace down quite a bit this year. Princeton is a good defensive rebounding team and a team that does a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets are definitely a great offensive team. Toledo has put up some big numbers this year. That's why this total has been adjusted so far up. I think the total has been moved too far up now though.

Toledo is now going to play the slowest paced team they have played all year. The second slowest team they played was Detroit and that game played to 149 points. Toledo has played two defenses with a defensive efficiency rank of 300th or worse in the country in the last two games. Jacksonville State is 184th and they are 124th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Jacksonville State and Toledo have both been elite at defending without fouling in recent years. They are both also above average getting defensive rebounds.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have had one of the biggest tempo changes in the country this year. Coastal Carolina brought in Justin Gray and they have gone all the way down to 361st in average possession length on offense. That is slower than Virginia and Air Force. This is a Coastal Carolina team that has played 3 of their 4 games to a combined total score of 124 points or lower. 

IU Indianapolis has been a terrible offense the last couple years. This year doesn't appear to be much different. They are shooting 37% on two point shots which is bottom ten in the country. They are 331st in average possession length too, so this game should be played at a very slow pace.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia is hosting the first of an annual tournament that will be played here early each season. This is obviously a neutral site contest where both teams aren't familiar with the shooting backdrop. Early season neutral games have gone under at a high rate in the past 15 years in college hoops. That has been an even stronger angle when the total is set at a high number like this one.

Pitt improved their defense a lot last year, and in the offseason this Panthers team added a lot of height and shot blockers. Pitt is 15th in defensive efficiency in the country so far this year. 

LSU has played three straight games that have finished at 145 points or fewer. The Tigers have been reliant on offensive rebounds in the last couple years, and Pitt is an excellent defensive rebounding team. 

Pitt has played some very weak defenses this year and with the neutral floor and a decent LSU defense this is a bigger test for the Panthers offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders have a new coach this year. Scott Nagy was a guy who wanted to push the pace in a big way, but Clint Sargent has slowed the team down a good amount. Wright State was 25th in average possession length last year. They are 147th so far this year. Wright State ranks 329th in the country in shot selection according to Shot Quality. The Raiders aren't getting to the line much at all, and they don't get offensive rebounds.

Princeton has been historically a below average tempo team. They have played faster this year, but they have some relatively quick teams. Princeton is 196th in shot selection in the country. The Tigers are very poor on the offensive boards, but they are great on the defensive glass.

This is a neutral site game early in the season with a high total. A total this high with very few second chance opportunities- I have to play it toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates were 321st and 288th in effective field goal percentage offense the last two years. East Carolina has relied on a ridiculously high free throw rate and very high offensive rebounding rate to be successful on offense early this year. They aren't likely to keep getting 40 and 32 free throws by themselves. I think this is still a team that will struggle to score in the halfcourt.

Jacksonville State has been top 40 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage the last three seasons. The Gamecocks are an above average defense, but they don't have many  go to scoring options.

Both of these teams play much slower than the average team. I think this has the potential to be a rock fight. This game is played at Ocean Center (neutral court) where unders have had value in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start on a neutral floor in South Carolina. There won't be many fans at this game. These early season neutral site games have trended strongly toward the under in the last 15 years in college hoops.

Ohio has allowed opponents to shoot 53.3% from 3 point range so far this season. That will obviously regress toward the mean. Ohio is a mediocre defensive team that happens to be playing against a Middle Tennessee State team that has struggled shooting it from long range the last few seasons.

MTSU has struggled with offensive efficiency the last few seasons because of their poor shooting numbers and high turnover percentage. MTSU is known for solid defense though.

Ohio has played some good offenses this year and that has inflated this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is not a comfortable bet. A bet on an under in an Alabama game isn't something I really want to do, but the number has gotten up to a point where I have to take it.

This is a neutral site game. Neutral site unders have done very well in college hoops in general in the last decade. The neutral site unders with very high totals have done even better toward the under.

Alabama is a great offense that flies tempo wise. I feel like that is absolutely baked into this total. The question is what will Illinois do with the pace here. If Illinois is wise they will try to slow the game down some and win with defense.

Illinois has a pretty clear height advantage here. Coach Underwood said this will be a good defensive team, and so far they have been improved on defense. Illinois is less efficient on offense than a year ago.

A 87-80 game is an under here with this high of a number. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins play at a very slow pace under Coach Mincy. Jacksonville is known for their defensive intensity and their ability to slow the game down. Jacksonville has played three opponents who want to run. The Dolphins now face a Virginia Tech Hokies team that is the slowest paced team they have faced so far this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down quite a bit from last year. The Hokies took advantage of terrible defenses in Delaware State and USC Upstate, but their offense has looked shaky against Winthrop and Penn State.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot, and I expect a lot of turnovers leading to empty possessions and wasted time on the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons lost Amari Williams to Kentucky and Justin Moore to Loyola Chicago. The Dragons offense takes a step back this season. They have slowed down their pace of play even more in the early season without Moore pushing the pace too.

Fairfield lost Jalen Leach to Northwestern, and Leach was their highest rating offensive player. The Stags have played drastically slower so far this year. Fairfield has yet to score more than 62 points in a game against a Division I opponent this year.

Neither of these teams attack the hoop much to get to the free throw line. Both have a history of being good on the defensive glass as well.

I had this one down in the low 130's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are a team I like to play unders with for a few reasons. First, they are good at controlling the pace of the game. They also are great at defending without fouling. In the last few years, Vermont has been excellent on the defensive boards as well. Vermont has played all four games under this total this year. Three of the four have been a total of 129 points or fewer.

Buffalo has  played a lot of teams who push the pace so far this year. Vermont is the first team they have seen that is defense first and a slow tempo team. The Bulls don't foul much, and they struggle on the offensive end as far as efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Fullerton Titans don't have the point guards this year to push the pace like they have some of the years in the past. Fullerton is going to try to play through the frontcourt and slow things down. 

Cal State Fullerton put up 53 points on Stanford and 53 points on Colorado in their last two games. Oregon State plays slower than either of those two teams. I think Fullerton could have a hard time getting past 55 or 56 here.

Oregon State has been bottom 50 in the country in tempo in each of the last two seasons. The Beavers haven't given up more than 58 points in a game this season. Oregon State is a hard nosed team who should do a good job keeping Fullerton off the offensive boards here.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers have more shooters to spread the floor out and knock down long range jumpers than they did last season. Charlotte isn't going to play fast, but they are likely to be efficient on offense. They don't turn the ball over very much at all.

Richmond is pushing the pace some more this year. They lack interior shot blockers and Charlotte's big men should be able to do work down low also. Richmond always runs good offensive sets under Chris Mooney. The Spiders should be able to get some open looks with dribble drives and kick outs.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bellarmine Knights are known for their very slow pace. They have ranked in the bottom 50 (360 plus teams) in the country in tempo in each of the last 4 seasons. Bellarmine is bottom 15 in tempo so far this season. 

Southern Indiana was able to slow the pace down against Bucknell and Marshall in their last two games. 

These two are an interesting matchup because Southern Indiana is wildly inefficient from the floor in general on offense, but they are great at getting to the line. Bellarmine is excellent at not fouling.

Southern Indiana is decent defensively except for the fact that they foul like crazy. Bellarmine very rare gets to the line though.

I think this total is inflated by a few points. Both teams have faced teams who like to play fast so far this year. They are now playing another team who slows things down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and Lipscomb Bison are bitter rivals. Both schools are in Nashville, Tennessee. These two coaches know each other well. The players on both teams know each other very well. Only one of the last six meetings between these two teams has finished higher than 152 points total.

Lipscomb is playing slower this year because of their ability to play inside out. The Bison are excellent on the defensive glass. They are very good at not fouling as well.

Belmont lost their top three players from a year ago. The NIL era has really hit Casey Alexander's team hard. The Bruins are far less explosive on offense than they were the last couple years. Belmont doesn't attack the rim much and doesn't get to the line much at all. Unless they are red hot shooting from deep, I think their scoring numbers will be down.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Damon Stoudamire has always wanted his teams to play quickly. He hasn't always been able to do that because of the guard play on this teams. Stoudamire got a really nice pickup in the offseason. Javion McCollum from Oklahoma came in and he will be a leader for Georgia Tech. McCollum is a scorer who shot 89% and 94% from the FT line in the last two seasons. 

Georgia Tech is 23rd in the country in average possession length so far this year so they have been playing very fast. The Yellow Jackets have scored 85 and 93 points in their two games.

Texas Southern has more depth this year, and Johnny Jones prefers to play at a quick pace as well. Texas Southern has had major problems with committing far too many fouls the last few years. Georgia Tech has good free throw shooters who can take advantage. On offense, Texas Southern can get points in transition and on second chance opportunities.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel was 299th in tempo last year. Stetson was 252nd. These two teams have a history of both trying to slow down the game. 

Stetson played a fast paced game against Nebraska Omaha last time out, but Omaha shot lights out early and Stetson had to speed up to have a chance later in the game. 

The Citadel isn't great defensively, but they are good on the defensive boards and good at defending without fouling.

Stetson lost a bunch of talent from last year's team that made a trip to the NCAA Tournament. 

This is a game that I believe will be played in the 68 or 69 possession range. That would require some impressive shooting numbers to get over a total set this high. 

With the line move higher here, I'm going to side with the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fresno State Bulldogs have a new coach in Vance Walberg. Walberg coached Pepperdine in 2007 and 2008. Pepperdine ranked in the top ten in tempo in both of those years. Both of those teams also ranked in the bottom 40 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Fresno State had a team red/white scrimmage the other day. They played just one half (20 minutes) and the score was 65-60. This teams is going to be pushing the pace to the extreme and putting up a lot of 3 pointers. 

Sacramento State has a new coach. While I don't necessarily expect them to try to play all that fast, they are weak on defense. They should be a bottom 100 defense this year. 

With one team pushing pace to the extreme and both teams being terrible at defense- I like the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first day of the college hoops season was all about the overs. I don't overreact to any one day, but the number of fouls called and the average tempo in day one games stood out as something to monitor very closely. The over was 75-38 in day one. There were a bunch of games that sailed far above their posted total.

FIU always wants to use a full court press and push the pace with Coach Jeremy Ballard at the top of the program. FIU struggles to grab defensive rebounds though and opponents were crushing them with second chance points last year. FIU still gets plenty of run out chances from their live ball turnovers.

Rice has a new coach in Rob Lanier. His teams have played pretty fast in the past, and he said he wants this Rice team to push the pace. They will take some time to develop defensively, and they lack the length all over the floor that he really wants to see.

I think Rice gets a lot of second chances here, but they turn it over a lot as well. A fast paced game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* If this were a game played between these two teams a year ago, I think this line would make a lot of sense. I don't think a game played between these two should be set this high.

Indiana State lost Robbie Avila the star leading the way, and they lost their superstar coach Josh Schertz. The Sycamores new coach says they will play relatively quickly, but there's no way they can match their offensive numbers from a year ago. 

Florida Atlantic lost Dusty May to Michigan, and they lost most of their top talent as well. The Owls will play pretty quickly, but I don't expect to see any great efficiency on offense from them.

This is a neutral site game in Xenia, Ohio at a new gym. These early neutral site games have trended strongly to the under in the last decade in college hoops.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's Purdue vs. UConn in an epic final for Monday night. The two best teams in the country actually both got to the title this year. 

UConn has been so dominant along their run that they are deserving favorites, but I think Purdue will at least make them work hard here.

The UConn defense has been on another level of late. Some forget that Clingan missed quite a few games this year, and UConn's defense with Clingan is light years better than without Clingan. He is as good of a defensive big man as you will see in college basketball. 

Zach Edey is an excellent offensive player and a solid defensive player too. Edey will have to work harder to get his points here though than he has any other time this year. UConn has Clingan at 7'2 and the long Samson Johnson has been a great shot blocker too. 

UConn is number one in the country in near proximity defense (defending the rim). Purdue is 4th in the nation in defending without fouling. Purdue is also amazing on the defensive glass. 

UConn slowed the game down in a big way against Alabama. A game at just 63 possessions against Alabama is nearly unheard of. Purdue played to a slow pace against NC State as well.

The rims were tight in State Farm Stadium in the Final 4. Both of these offenses are very good, but I think the defenses are underrated too. The pace should be slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers defense hasn't gotten enough credit in recent weeks. Purdue has allowed 68 points or fewer in regulation in six straight games. In four of those six games, they have allowed 0.98 points per possession or fewer. The Boilermakers are top 15 in the country in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. 

NC State has actually played at a slower pace in their last few games than they have for the season overall. Burns is fantastic, but I do think Edey and company will make it tougher than average for him in facilitating the offense. 

Purdue's offense is excellent, but they haven't been shooting very well from long range of late. Purdue has benefited from Edey getting to the line a lot, but we have often seen the refs swallow the whistle a bit more in the Final Four and Championship games. That could allow NC State to slow Purdue enough.

This being a football stadium and the basketballs used in the NCAA Tournament being so unique are pluses as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* There are 362 teams in Division One college basketball. UConn ranks #1 in offensive efficiency out of those 362 teams. Illinois ranks #2 in offensive efficiency in the country. This should be a really fun contest.

Illinois just faced an Iowa State defense that has been better than UConn through the year on that end of the floor. The Fighting Illini could have put up quite a few more points if they hadn't been awful from the free throw line in that game.

Illinois was fortunate that Iowa State was putting up some terrible shots in that game. I don't think UConn will take those same low quality looks. This is a UConn team that is running some spectacular halfcourt sets, and this Illinois defense can't be trusted. Illinois is just 84th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Terrence Shannon has arguably been the best player in the country in the last few weeks, at least on the offensive end. Shannon has scored 25 points or more in seven straight games. He should get his again here. 

UConn has been willing to play quicker at times this year, and I think Illinois tries to get in transition a lot here. 

Both teams should be efficient on offense. Both teams are great on the offensive glass as well, so second chances are likely coming in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles are always happy to run. They are 9th in average possession length in the country. Marquette is excellent at causing turnovers and getting out and scoring points in transition. Colorado has been poor at taking care of the basketball, and their transition defense isn't good.

Marquette's offensive numbers are skewed too negative late in the season because Kolek was out. With him in the lineup they are a completely different offense.

Marquette's weakness on defense is getting defensive rebounds and protecting the basket. Lampkin and company for Colorado should be able to get plenty of second chances. 

Both teams are ranked outside the top 150 in transition defense. The pace here should be very quick. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense has been on a whole different level in the last month. Gonzaga is a top four offense in the country in the last month. Ben Gregg has ignited the offense with his ability to stretch a defense. Nolan Hickman has heated up significantly from 3 point range as well. The Bulldogs get consistently solid contributions from Graham Ike on offense too.

Kansas scored 93 in their win over Samford. KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson have been a nice duo in the post. The Jayhawks have struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Gonzaga has been on fire from long range of late.

The tempo here should be key. I expect both teams to run and push the pace. Gonzaga has sped up in key games in the last month. Kansas ranks 55th in average possession length too. A pace in the low 70's should be expected. 

Two good passing teams who want to run. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are 39th in the country in offensive efficiency. TCU is 44th in the country in offensive efficiency.

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. They have been playing quite a few teams in their respective conferences who like to slow the game down, but in this one they'll face another fast paced team.

TCU gets out in transition as often as possible. They are in transition on 17% of their possessions on offense. That's extremely high and is top 10 in the country. TCU is 12th in offensive efficiency in transition. Utah State's transition defense is 223rd in the country. 

Utah State is in transition on 13% of their possessions (above average) and they are third in offensive efficiency in transition. The Aggies are up against a TCU defense that is just 189th in transition defense.

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line. I would expect TCU to get a lot of second chance points here. Utah State's Osabor should get good looks in the post on offense too. 

Utah State hasn't seen many teams with high pressure defense, and TCU is known for their aggressiveness and willingness to run off steals.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have to know they need to slow the pace down here to have any chance. This is a well coached smart team, so I expect them to work the clock down as much as they possibly can. Yale is 334th in the country in average possession length to begin with, so they are bottom 30 in the country in pace.

Yale also relies heavily on scoring inside the paint. They are up against an Auburn team who ranks 1st in the country in near proximity defense. Johni Broome and his elite shot blocking skills are a large reason for that statistic. Yale is likely to have serious trouble scoring here.

Auburn has two weaknesses on defense. They foul too often and they aren't great on the defensive glass. Yale is near the bottom of teams in the country in trips to the free throw line, and the Bulldogs aren't aggressive on the offensive glass. They are below average in offensive rebounding.

Auburn's offense relies heavily on getting to the free throw line and grabbing offensive boards. Yale is top 15 in the country in defensive rebounding and they are a solid 84th out of 362 teams in defending without fouling. 

The under has done fantastic in double digit spreads in the Round of 64 especially when the total is 140 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs push the pace to the extreme and love to use full court pressure. Bucky Ball from Bucky McMillan is a lot of fun, and it has been very successful. Samford is 6th in the country in average possession length so they are really quick. Samford is 16th in the nation in forced turnover percentage. 

Kansas is 141st in turnover percentage, so I think they will turn it over some and their transition defense has been subpar. Look for Samford to get some run out opportunities here. Kansas is 55th quickest in the country in average possession length. They should be able to get transition opportunities and burn the full court pressure some as well.

Hunter Dickinson is considered probable by beat writers. I think Kansas will score quite a few here even if Dickinson doesn't play, but if he does play there really isn't anyone on Samford's roster that can guard him. Kansas should go high low post and smoke Samford's interior defense.

Samford allowed 98 points to Purdue early in the season. They haven't played another top 75 team this year. Kansas has the talent to score a lot here, and Samford's unique style should get them plenty of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays are first in the nation in defending without fouling. They also excel on the defensive glass. They are top 25 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Creighton is slightly below average in tempo at #207 in the country.

Akron is 13th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. That's important against a Creighton team that ranks top 20 in the nation 3 point frequency as a percentage of their points. Akron is 86th at defending without fouling. Akron is also 268th out of 362 in the nation in tempo, so they are pretty slow.

Round of 64 games with a large spread and high seeds vs. low seeds have been good under bets. That is especially true of totals that are average or higher. A total of in the low 140's fits that.

PPG Arena in Pittsburgh hosts this game and this has been a good under arena in the past. It's a spacious arena that has seen a lot of very low scoring games.

Akron should slow the pace down here and I think Creighton's defense will give Akron's offense a lot of trouble with their funnel to the mid range style.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers really try to push the pace. They are 34th in the country in overall tempo. They are up against a Georgia team that is 67th quickest in average possession length in the country. This one should be a track meet. 

Xavier's defense was strong early in the season, but it tailed off significantly in the latter part of the season. In 6 of their last 9 games, Xavier allowed 1.13 points per possession or more. They got much worse at defending the basket. 

Georgia struggled to get defensive rebounds, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. 

Both offenses had a low turnover percentage and neither defense forces many turnovers. I think the efficiency numbers can be pretty high here.

The two teams both get to the free throw line a lot.

Early smaller postseason tournaments have trended toward the over in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 star Play Under* The Duquesne Dukes have played much better defense down the stretch, and that has led them to their success of late. Duquesne has also slowed the tempo down drastically from what they played at early in the season. The Dukes have allowed 1 point per possession or fewer in 6 of their last 8 games. They have played four of their last six games to a pace of 63 possessions or fewer.

St. Bonaventure is playing slower paced games of late too. They got to just 61 possessions against La Salle in their first tournament game and Thursday's double OT win over Loyola was just 78 possessions in 2 overtimes.

The first game between these two was 54-50, so they are more than capable of a rock fight. This one is win or go home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes goal is definitely to slow the game down and make it an ugly low scoring contest. They did this in a 58-55 win over Fairfield two weeks ago. 

Fairfield puts up a lot of 3 point jumpers. In a tough shooting venue that can be dangerous. Marist is the number one 3 point defense in the conference too. On offense, Marist is 320th in offensive efficiency in the country. 

Neither team gets to the free throw line very much on average.

Both teams had low scoring contests in their first games in this tournament.

Boardwalk Hall is 40-22 to the under now. This gym has been a huge under gym. The old large building has difficult shooting backdrops and that has led to some terrible shooting percentages in this tournament. 

*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac and St. Peter's meet in the MAAC semifinals. These two teams played higher scoring games in the regular season, but this is a very high total for a St. Peter's game. This game also means a whole lot more than their first two games did. Only two more wins and these teams could be in the NCAA Tournament.

Boardwalk Hall is 40-22 to the under now. This gym has been a huge under gym. The old large building has difficult shooting backdrops and that has led to some terrible shooting percentages in this tournament. 

I think this one slows down and the offensive efficiencies are lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rider and St. Peter's meet in a MAAC Conference Tournament game on Thursday night. 

This is the first game of the tournament for both of these teams. These two teams played twice in the regular season and the two games finished with 117 and 119 points. 

St. Peter's is among the best in the country at slowing a game down. They are also atrocious on offense and great on defense. St. Peter's is 348th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 50th on defense.

Rider protects the basket very well, and St. Peter's hasn't been able to count on the outside shot.

Boardwalk Hall has been great to under bettors. The under is 36-23 in games played here and the margins have been significant.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars beat Georgetown on Wednesday and will take on the Creighton Blue Jays at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. 

The regular season meetings between these two were 91-87 (OT) and 69-60. Shot Quality believes based on the quality of shots taken the OT game should have finished only 152 points after overtime. The other game they believe should have finished with 137 points.

Creighton does a great job defensively taking away the 3 point shot and the shot at the basket. They are funneling the opposition into taking mid range jumpers. The Blue Jays are first in the nation at defending without fouling.

Providence is 17th in defensive efficiency. They are top 40 in the nation at defending without fouling.

Madison Square Garden saw all 3 games go under the total yesterday. The under is about 57.5% at MSG in CBB games in the past decade. It's a large sample size as well. This is a good under venue.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have really been good on defense of late. Central Michigan gave up just 0.98 points per possession inside the MAC. They were first ranked in overall defensive efficiency. They were first in two point defense and second in three point defense in the conference. On offense, the Chippewas were 10th in offensive efficiency and 11th in effective field goal percentage offense. They figured out they have to win games ugly, and they really slowed down their pace late in the season. 

Bowling Green has largely played to the pace of their opponent during this season.

The Falcons and Chippewas played two games in the regular season. Both of them went into overtime. The two games were 124 and 112 at the end of regulation. Even with overtime the one finished at 122 points. The other went into double overtime and finished with 153 points.

This one is played at the Cleveland Cavaliers arena- Rocket Mortgage in Cleveland. Unders in this arena have hit 56.3% of the time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers have won five of their last seven games. La Salle went much of the season struggling with no identity, but the Explorers have found a little bit of something of late. I still don't think this is a good team on the whole, but they are slowing the game down and playing much better defense than they were. 

La Salle averaged 66.8 possessions per game for the season, but in 4 of their last 5 games they have played to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. The Explorers have also allowed 1.02 points per possession or fewer in four of their last five games. 

St. Bonaventure is 271st in overall pace. They aren't likely to push the tempo here. The Bonnies defend the 3 point shot pretty well, and La Salle takes a bunch of shots from long range. 

A neutral site where the games were very low scoring on day one in this tournament. A win or go home game with a slow projected pace. I think this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Pioneers have been a high scoring team all. It makes sense that a total would be set high in a game between them and South Dakota State. 

I still think the circumstances surrounding this game make this under have value.

This is a massive game where the winner will go to the NCAA Tournament. The stakes are far higher than the regular season meetings between these two. Final games in conference tournaments have been very good under bets in the last decade. That has been especially true when it is smaller college matchups. A win in this game is the only chance these teams have of getting to the NCAA Tournament.

Denver's star scorer Tommy Bruner is Mr. Everything for this team, but he is playing through an injury. He has 8 turnovers in two games in the Summit League Tournament.

Denver and South Dakota State have both played at a far slower pace in their games in this tournament than they did against their same opponents in the regular season. I think the pace slows down in this matchup too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iona Gaels are without Greg Gordon, who was their top offensive player before he left the team a few weeks. Iona's offensive efficiency numbers have dipped quite a bit without Gordon. 

Manhattan has been terrible offensively all season. They are 341st in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Jaspers almost never get to the line, and one thing they do well on defense is defend without fouling.

This game is played at Boardwalk  Hall in Atlantic City. A little over 60% of games played here have gone under the closing total. This is a tough gym for shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks and Towson Tigers meet in a huge CAA quarterfinal matchup in Washington DC. 

Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. The two games between them in the regular season were 59 possessions and 62 possessions. That second game that was 62 possessions was a foul fest late to push the scoring up and the possessions up as well. 

Towson turns the ball over too much and isn't a good shooting team. UNC Wilmington has a great player in White, but they lean too much on him.

This is a gym where the under has done amazing in the last few years. There have been some ugly shooting performances. With the pace at a very slow rate, unless the refs get way too involved here I see this one staying low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons beat the Portland Pilots badly in both regular season meetings. The first game flew over this total. The second game barely stayed under despite a pace of 79 possessions (extremely quick). The shooting numbers in that game were far lower than normal.

Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, believes both games in the regular season should have topped this posted total by more than 10 points. 

Portland is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Pilots have no answer to the Dons half court offense. San Francisco has picked up their pace through the year. Portland can't stall as much when playing from behind.

Orleans Arena has been a good over gym with 55% of games going over in a large sample.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have just been atrocious down the stretch, and it has mainly been their defense that has been awful. Missouri has allowed an average of 89 points per game in their last four games. They are dead last in the SEC in defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling during conference play. 

LSU is 52nd in the nation in FTA/FGA on the season. They have exploded for very high point totals several times this year. Their defense has put teams on the line quite a bit, and Missouri does shoot 80.5% from the free throw line in conference play.

This is a final regular season game that means little to either team in my opinion. The final games of the year between two mediocre or poor teams have trended strongly toward the over in the last decade or so.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stony Brook Seawolves and Northeastern Huskies played twice during the regular season and the final totals in those games were 114 and 115 points. 

Northeastern plays at a very slow pace. They are 328th in average possession length in the country. The Huskies did miss some players at times during the year, but this offense is only 11th in the CAA in efficiency. 

Stony Brook is 215th in average possession length, so they shouldn't be pushing the pace either. 

This is a win or go home game and is being played in gym where the under has done extremely well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston has the number one ranked defense in the country, and it hasn't been very close. They contest every shot and are very good at getting back on defense. 

Kansas torched this elite defense in the first half of their first meeting. I don't think Houston will let that happen again. Houston is giving up just 0.83 points per possession in their Big 12 home games. They come home here and I expect Sampson's group to be much better on defense.

Kansas is much more efficient on defense than offense. The Jayhawks have gotten much better in half court defense through the season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors host the Le Moyne Dolphins in a NEC Tournament game on Saturday afternoon. These two teams played twice in the regular season. The final totals in those games were 128 and 116 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, said those final totals should have been 131 and 124 based on the quality of shots taken. All numbers were solidly below this total.

This is a win or go home game and that typically slows the pace down some. These two teams are first and second in the league in defensive efficiency in the last six games. I think the offenses will have a tough time finding open looks.

Merrimack's defensive weakness is getting defensive rebounds, but Le Moyne is poor on the offensive boards. Le Moyne has sometimes struggled on defense against tall frontcourts, but Merrimack doesn't have too much height.

I think we'll see a third game between these two stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been scuffling on offense of late. Their season average is 1.14 points per possession on offense, but in six of their last seven games they have put up 1.06 points per possession or fewer. Their defense has stepped up at the same time though. San Diego State has allowed 0.99 points per possession or fewer in five of their last seven games. They have also slowed their tempo a bit of late.

Boise State is second slowest in the Mountain West in average possession length. The Broncos are first in the nation in defensive rebounding. San Diego State should have a lot more trouble getting second chance points than they normally do. 

The last six games between these two teams have finished at these combined totals:

79 points, 115 points, 105 points, 124 points, 126 points, and 133 points. The game earlier this year that finished at 133 points had quite a bit of fouling late in the game too.

A late regular season game that means a bunch to both teams. I think the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tyson Acuff is the eighth leading scorer in the nation. Acuff has missed the last two games for Eastern Michigan. This is a relatively quick turnaround with them playing on Friday here after their Tuesday contest where he was out with an ankle injury. Acuff is questionable here. I expect him to either miss the game or be far less than 100%.

Central Michigan's defense has been quietly dominating, especially on their home court. They have given up only 0.978 points per possession at home in conference play. They have allowed 63 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 home games. 

Eastern Michigan is 325th in offensive efficiency in the country, and most of those numbers are with a healthy Acuff. Central Michigan is 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles were the best defense in the OVC this year. They had a brief period in the middle of the season where they struggled, but in their last three games the best defense has showed up again. In the last three contests, Morehead State held all 3 opponents to 0.88 points per possession or fewer. 

SIU Edwardsville won over Morehead State 61-48 at home earlier this year. That was a slugfest where the tempo was very slow. SIU Edwardsville toyed with running late in the regular season, but they played very slowly yesterday in their win against E Illinois. I think they slow it down again here. Morehead State is a bottom ten team in the country in tempo, so they should be happy to move slowly too.

This game is at Ford Center in Evansville. This is a large 11,000 seat arena. Shooters have had a hard time adjusting to this. The under is 25-18 in OVC Tournament games here. The average margin toward the under is an impressive 4.35 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two teams who prefer to play at a slow tempo. 

The two regular season games between these two finished at 145 points and 112 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site that measures the quality of shots taken, believes those two games should have finished with 131 and 120 points based on the quality of shots taken.

This is win or go home and that changes the way teams play quite a bit.

Arch Madness in the MVC is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to playing huge arenas like this and we have seen a bunch of bad shooting performances from teams in this tournament. The under is a whopping 91-50 in the last 141 MVC Conference Tournament games. That's a long term 64.5% angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have a great defense for what Tennessee State likes to do. The Tigers want to attack the basket early and often. Western Illinois has an elite shot blocker in Cisse in the paint lurking at all times. Western Illinois ranks top five in the nation in defense against shots attacking the rim. 

Western Illinois offensively settles for far too many mid range jumpers. They have gone through long scoring droughts throughout the season. 

Tenn State relies on getting to the line a lot, but Western Illinois has been excellent this year at defending without fouling.

This game is at Ford Center in Evansville. This is a large 11,000 seat arena. Shooters have had a hard time adjusting to this. The under is 25-18 in OVC Tournament games here. The average margin toward the under is an impressive 4.35 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off Thursday afternoon with Murray State and Missouri State. 

The two regular season meetings were a total of 154 and 130 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, believes based on the quality of shots taken those games should have finished with 134 and 133 points. 

This is win or go home and that changes the way teams play quite a bit.

Arch Madness in the MVC is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to playing huge arenas like this and we have seen a bunch of bad shooting performances from teams in this tournament. The under is a whopping 91-50 in the last 141 MVC Conference Tournament games. That's a long term 64.5% angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Le Moyne Dolphins have really put together an ultra impressive defensive run at the end of the season. Le Moyne has allowed 0.97 points per possession or fewer in six of their last seven games. In four of those games, they have allowed less than 0.90 points per possession. That's some excellent defense and the trend lines are all pointing upward for their defensive performance.

Fairleigh Dickinson plays very quickly, but they are inefficient on offense. They scored just 63 and 68 points in their games against Le Moyne this year. Those two games in the regular season both stayed well under this posted total.

This is a win or go home game. I think the pace slows down just a bit here. Fairleigh Dickinson relies on free throws to score quite a bit on offense, and Le Moyne is excellent at defending without fouling. Le Moyne is 349th in the country in FTA/FGA on offense too, so there shouldn't be too many free throws in general in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos host the Nevada Wolf Pack on Tuesday night in this key Mountain West game. Both of these teams have a lot to play for in this one. 

Boise State is tied at the top of the Mountain West Conference with Utah State. Nevada is tied with San Diego State and UNLV one game back. 

Boise State is second slowest in the Mountain West in average possession length. The Broncos are also 31st in defensive efficiency. They are elite at defensive rebounding. In the first meeting between these two teams, Nevada got just two offensive rebounds. 

Nevada is 38th in the nation in defensive efficiency. On offense, Nevada has been a little too reliant on getting to the line. Leon Rice and his Boise State teams are usually solid at defending without fouling.

Very late season games where both teams have a good winning percentage and there is a lot on the line have trended under in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two teams hit 167 total points. UMBC shot it very well from 3, and Binghamton dominated the offensive glass to stay close in that one.

Binghamton should get a lot of second chance points again here. UMBC is a bottom 30 team in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. 

UMBC puts up a lot of shots from long range, and they got a bunch of open looks against Binghamton before. They should get those again. UMBC has scored 79 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games. They have hit 86 points or more in four of those games.

UMBC is second in the nation in average possession length. They are favored here, and I think they can push the pace. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I admit that betting a Queens under isn't comfortable. Queens is a fast paced team who has had a bunch of high scoring games. This is a very high total though and I think it is too high.

Stetson has been fantastic at slowing the pace down against Queens though. In three games against Queens in the last two season, the final totals have been 136, 150, and 158 points. 

Also, Queens has slowed their pace down and been an under team in the A Sun Tournament games the last couple years. They have had all their three conference tournament games go more than 15 points under the total. Their pace has slowed down quite a bit in those win or go home tournament contests.

Stetson is the best in the league at not fouling and Queens typically needs to get to the line to be efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames and Missouri State Bears meet in their regular season finale here. 

Missouri State has had much higher scoring games at the end of the regular season. The Bears have seen five straight games reach at least 148 total points. 

UIC has seen three straight games hit 161 points or higher in regulation. The Flames have been shooting the ball better from three point range. 

In four of Missouri State's last five games, their opponent has averaged at least 1.18 points per possession. 

UIC has seen opponents average 1.12 points per possession or higher in four of their last five games. 

It's a late season game where neither team has much to play for. These have gone over the total a lot in the last decade or so, and the MVC is the conference where the over has done the best in the last month of the year when it is two subpar teams squaring off.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Greg Gordon chose to leave the Iona program in late February for personal reasons. The team has played three games without their key offensive piece. They clearly miss him quite a bit. In the four total games this year that Gordon hasn't played Iona has scored 61 against lowly St. Francis, 75 against Rider, 65 against Mt. St. Mary's, and 64 against Quinnipiac. 

This will be the best defense Iona has seen without Gordon by a wide margin. Marist is easily first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot just 31% from 3 point range, and Iona puts up a lot of long range jumpers.

Marist has locked up a bunch of teams this year, especially when playing on their home floor. The Red Foxes are just 320th in the country in offensive efficiency though.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Toreros and Pacific Tigers meet here in a game that really doesn't mean anything to either team. These games very late in the regular season where both teams have nothing to play for have trended strongly toward the over in the last 15 years or so in college basketball.

San Diego is relentless in pushing the pace. Pacific is easily the worst defense in the league. 

Pacific does get to the free throw line quite a bit, and San Diego is a team that fouls at a high rate. 

I would expect a lot of open looks in this game. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a game where many of the top scoring options are going to be unavailable. UT Rio Grande Valley is playing without 3 of their original 5 starters on offense. Their offensive efficiency numbers have dipped significantly. They have scored 59 points or fewer in three straight games. They also scored just 54 points in their first meeting with Cal Baptist. 

Cal Baptist is without star Dominique Daniels. This is a team that has already had a hard time creating on offense, and without him that weakness is even more apparent.

UT Rio Grande Valley relies extremely heavily on getting to the line on offense, and Cal Baptist is best in the league at defending without fouling. 

Cal Baptist should control the pace as the better team, and they want to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State has been better on offense in their last couple games, but I don't trust them to consistently be good on offense. We've seen this Wildcats team take far too many contested jump shots this season. 

Cincinnati is one of the weakest offenses in the Big 12. The Bearcats have been very good on defense though. 

The only edge I see offensively for the teams is some offensive rebounds. Still, I expect a pretty slow pace and poor overall efficiency. This total has bumped up too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers beat the FIU Panthers 105-91 in the first meeting between these two. The pace of that game was a blistering 85 possessions. Both of these teams were using full court pressure and pushing the tempo at every opportunity. 

FIU has been slowed down by some teams who play a slower tempo, but Western Kentucky certainly doesn't want to slow anyone down. Western Kentucky is first in the nation in overall tempo. FIU is 49th in tempo. This should once again be a track meet.

Neither of these teams has been good at taking care of the ball, but both defenses look to get quick steals and score in transition. These two teams are poor in transition defense. There should be a lot of run out opportunities here.

FIU is 359th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

I had this one several points higher. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams and Richmond Spiders don't like each other a bit. This is an intracity rivalry game. Both of these teams are clearly better on defense than offense. I expect a max effort from both defenses in this one. 

These are two really good defensive rebounding teams. Second chance points should be tough to come by in this one. 

VCU has racked up points at the line this year, but Richmond has been excellent at defending without fouling.

The stakes are high here and I like the defenses to take care of business.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds are down two of their best offensive players. This team has struggled offensively all year, but they are really up against it now. Army has been one of the better defenses in the Patriot League. 

Army and Loyola are both most comfortable playing at a very slow pace. The first game between these two was played ultra slow, but both teams shot the ball much better than they normally do. The game hit 136 points total, but Shot Quality (advanced analytics) graded it as a 110 point expected total points based on the shots taken in the game.

Army has scored 59 points or less in four straight games. Loyola just put up 46 points in their last game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Carolina A&T is a completely different team with Landon Glasper in the lineup. Glasper is a very quick guard who likes to push the pace. Without him, NC A&T played much slower and their offensive stats for the season are skewed lower because he missed quite a bit of time. 

Campbell has picked up their pace quite a bit during the season this year. The Fighting Camels have seen 7 of their last 8 games get over this total. They have excellent guards who have a clear advantage here on offense.

A last game between two teams who have very little to play for. This is an angle that has been very good to over bettors at the end of the regular season. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's a fight for important seeding in the CAA Tournament here. The final game of the regular season for both teams. Both teams will be highly motivated in this finale. 

The first game between these two played to an extremely slow pace of 58 possessions. That game featured hot shooting and it still only finished at 131 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, had the expected score at 115 points based on the quality of shots taken.

Towson is very slow paced, and UNC Wilmington has typically played to that slow pace with them in recent meetings. 

UNC Wilmington's White is a star, but Towson has better defenders to put on him than most teams do.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles have been pushing the pace quite a bit more late in the season. Southern Indiana is first in the OVC in FTA/FGA on offense, and they are last in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Southern Indiana games are foul fests consistently. When is that even more true? In their home games. Southern Indiana's free throw rate and free throw rate allowed are much higher in their home games. 

Lindenwood isn't good at many things, but they are pretty good at getting to the line (3rd in FTA/FGA in the OVC) and shooting free throws. They should do some damage at the line as well. Their defense has been awful of late. 

Southern Indiana has played 9 of their last 11 games over this total. The two that went under this total were 141 and 142 points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Longwood Lancers lost to the Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs earlier this year by a score of 76-64 earlier this year. There is one stat that stands out as ridiculous from that first game. Gardner Webb went 12/13 from the 3 point line in that win! The Bulldogs are just 33.8% from the 3 point line as a team for the season overall. We certainly can't expect them to knock down everything from long range again.

Longwood shoots a lot of shots from mid range and near proximity. They don't shoot many 3 point jumpers. Gardner Webb is first in the conference in 2 point field goal percentage defense. That is a positive for the under in this one.

The first game stayed well under even with one team going 12/13 from 3. These teams have a history of playing lower scoring games against each other. 

I think this number is set too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders stand out as a team who is elite at getting great shots near the hoop. Wright State is second in the nation in field goal percentage. Wright State is 12th in the nation in near proximity (layups, tip ins, and dunks) offense. They are up against a Fort Wayne team that has been atrocious at defending near the hoop. They are 356th at near proximity defense. Fort Wayne lacks shot blockers. Wright State put up 106 points in a 106-98 win at Fort Wayne earlier this year. Wright State has scored 92 points or more in four of their last five games. I think they'll do it again in this one.

Fort Wayne is good from 3 point range. They are shooting 36.8% from long distance in the conference. Wright State's defense is giving up 38.5% from 3 point range. The Raiders are poor in transition defense, and Fort Wayne excels at getting steals and scoring in transition off those steals. 

The first game was played at a pace of 83 possessions. This one won't be that fast, but I expect a very quick tempo. It's a high total, but I don't think it is high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The High Point Panthers and Winthrop Eagles met earlier this year and that one finished 83-81. There were 59 free throws taken in that game. Normally that might sound abnormal, but with these two offenses that has been the norm. Winthrop is first in the country in FTA/FGA and High Point is 7th. Additionally, these two teams both have struggled to defend without fouling. 

High Point is 10th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. They are 30th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging 1.19 points per possession in the Big South. 

Winthrop has been significantly better on offense away from home in Big South action than they have been at home. The Eagles have played their last two road games to 158 and 154 points even against slower teams in Longwood and Radford.

The offenses should have a clear advantage here, and the trips to the free throw line should help a bunch.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars were playing pretty good defense in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but it has all completely fallen apart in the Big 12. BYU is giving up 1.11 points per possession in the Big 12. In their last three road games they have allowed 82 against Oklahoma, 93 points at Oklahoma State, and 84 points at Kansas State. None of those teams are all that good on offense.

BYU is still very good on offense. Kansas is shorthanded with McCullar injured and he is one of the better defenders on the team. BYU is 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They play at a very quick pace too. 

Kansas is first in the Big 12 in average possession length, and I think they'll be happy to run in this game. The Jayhawks have a clear matchup advantage with Hunter Dickinson here. I don't think BYU has anyone good enough defensively in the frontcourt to slow him down.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been elite at home. Rutgers is giving up just 0.863 points per possession at home in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights have a great shot blocker down low and multiple good guards who do a good job keeping the ball in front of them. 

Maryland is 13th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency. The Terrapins rely far too much on one guy in Jahmir Young. He is a tremendous player, but the lack of a consistent second option really slows down this offense. 

Maryland is sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Rutgers is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. These two played earlier this month and it was 56-53. Recent higher scoring games for these teams has propped up this total, but they are back to playing another defensive minded foe here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* San Francisco has been playing really quick in conference play. The Dons have been an offensive machine on their home floor, and they have gotten into a bunch of shootouts. 

Pepperdine is a very weak defensive team. The Waves are allowing opponents in the WCC to shoot better than 40% from 3 point range. San Francisco is more than capable of torching the nets here. 

Pepperdine should get to the line a good amount against a San Francisco team that fouls quite a bit. The Waves have several good scorers in Ajayi, Porter, and Mallette. 

Pepperdine has scored 91 and 89 points in their last two games. San Francisco has put up 90 points or more several times at home this year.

Take the over.