*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing 6.1 yards per play in their last three games. The Panthers easily moved the ball on them. The Commanders dominated this defense. The Ravens torched this defense. 

I'm not going to pretend the New York Giants without Nabers are as good as the Commanders or Ravens on offense. I still think they can score enough here though. The Bengals only have one defensive linemen (Hendrickson) getting any pressure right now. The Bengals secondary lost Dax Hill to injury and he was playing the best of anyone in this secondary.

On the other side, the Bengals offense is rolling of late. Cincinnati is averaging 6.7 yards per play in their last three games (3rd best in the NFL). Joe Burrow is having a special season and he has his full group of wide receivers healthy now. Erick All Jr. has been a nice addition to the offense at tight end. I don't think the Giants have the secondary to consistently slow down this Bengals passing attack.

The scoring in the NFL was up quite a bit last week. Getting the ball on the 30 yard line on kickoffs is a clear help to the offenses. This is a low total for a Bengals game with no apparent weather issues. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have been in some very high scoring games this year. Washington State went to overtime at 46-46 against San Jose State. They lost 45-24 to Boise State. They also beat Portland State 70-30. 

Fresno State just lost 59-14 to UNLV. The Bulldogs beat Sacramento State 46-30. They gave up 485 yards of offense to New Mexico as well in a game that probably should have been higher scoring than it was. 

Washington State is 2nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. They have a great offensive coordinator in Arbuckle. They play at the 18th quickest tempo in the country. 

Fresno State plays at a quicker than average pace as well. They have been pretty good through the air this season. Washington State's safeties are a weakness. Defensively, Washington State is 117th in explosiveness allowed.

The weather here looks good and I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Old Dominion isn't very good, but they sure do play extremely fast. They are the second fastest paced team in the country this year. Old Dominion had a low scoring game against S Carolina early, but of late they have had higher scores. Colton Joseph has come in and played well at quarterback in relief of Grant Wilson. 

The Monarchs lost 45-37 at Coastal Carolina last week. Old Dominion had their best offensive game of the season thus far in that game. Old Dominion also put up 30 points in a win at Bowling Green two games ago.

Georgia State is playing faster than I expected this year. They are 42nd out of 134 teams in tempo. Georgia State is airing it out too. Old Dominion has a bottom 20 pass rush and a bottom ten tackling grade in the country. They have both starting safeties banged up- those guys missed the second half of last week and are questionable here. The Panthers should move the ball through the air.

Both defenses are far worse than average in explosiveness allowed. A lot of possessions here and some explosive plays. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't really a game I expected to bet on, but the line is just showing too much value for me to pass it up.

Rutgers gave up more than 500 yards to Washington and was fortunate to allow only 18 points in that game. The Scarlet Knights then gave up only 14 to Nebraska, but that game was played in a windstorm that absolutely limited the points in that contest. 

Rutgers has been poor against the run this year. The Scarlet Knights are 116th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 113th in defensive line yards allowed. I think Wisconsin with their 31st rushing play success rate on offense can have success here.

The Wisconsin defense has gotten much worse. They are 71st in yards per play allowed. They are 95th in defensive line yards, and the Rutgers ground attack should get going here.

Rutgers has gotten decent quarterback play from Kaliakmanis which is an upgrade from their QB play the last couple years.

The weather here looks good. 

I think the recent low scoring games for Rutgers has made this total too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level bad. Ball State is allowing 8.22 yards per play on the season. They have given up at least 34 points in every game so far this year. That includes allowing 34 against SE Missouri State and 37 against a poor Central Michigan offense. 

The Ball State offense has come to life of late. They played some good defenses earlier in the year, but Ball State put up 6.0 yards per play and 42 points on Western Michigan last week. I think their passing attack can have success here.

Kent State's defense is awful too. They are 131st in the nation (134 teams) in yards per play allowed, QBR allowed, and YPC allowed. The Kent State offense has been weak overall, but they showed signs of life last game in scoring 33 points against Eastern Michigan. Now, they face the worst defense they have played all season.

These are two really bad teams, but I think the two defenses are so bad that there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers defense has been very weak so far this year. They are 95th in success rate allowed. They rank 129th in tackling grade at PFF. The Chanticleers have faced Virginia and Old Dominion in their last two games. Virginia rolled up 525 yards and 43 points. A bad Old Dominion offense put up 462 yards and 37 points on the Chanticleers. 

James Madison has been excellent on offense this year. The Dukes are coming off a rare poor offensive performance against an upstart UL Monroe team. I think James Madison can get it back going again in this matchup. The Dukes are 30th in yards per play this year. They are 22nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. Alonza Barnett is a great dual threat at quarterback and I expect him to have a big game here.

Coastal Carolina has a good offensive scheme. The Chanticleers put up 45 points on a pretty good Old Dominion defense this past weekend. They had 6.7 yards per play against Virginia in the previous game as well. 

James Madison really hasn't faced many good offenses. They played Charlotte with half the 49ers team injured. They played Gardner Webb. They played Ball State. Even with this weak schedule of opponents, the Dukes rank 98th in tackling grade this year.

James Madison plays at a pretty quick pace and I like both offenses to have success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have loads of injuries on offense. Rashee Rice was injured this past Sunday and he will miss significant time with what appears to be a major knee injury. Rice had been Patrick Mahomes' favorite target by a wide margin this year. Pacheco is still out for the Chiefs as is Hollywood Brown. 

On the Saints side, Kamara is playing with injured ribs. Chris Olave has an injured foot. Taysom Hill was banged up too. The offensive line is badly banged up. The Chiefs defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here.

Steve Spagnuolo is an excellent defensive coordinator who will put a lot of heat on Derek Carr. Carr is good with time, but under pressure looks very poor much of the time. 

Dennis Allen is a defensive minded coach and his teams games have gone under the total at a rate higher than 56% in his time in the league.

The Chiefs have been a very good under team when they are favored, especially playing at home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has been the best defense in the NFL so far this season. Early in the season it was easy to doubt them, but the Broncos have proven it now in multiple spots. They held a pretty good Jets rushing attack to just 64 rushing yards last week. They held Tampa Bay to 7 points two weeks ago. They held the Jets to 9 points last week.

Denver plays at a slow pace on offense and they don't take many shots down the field with Bo Nix. Nix had only 60 yards passing on 25 pass attempts last week. The Broncos are 29th in the NFL in yards per play.

Las Vegas held Cleveland to just 4.2 yards per play last week. The Raiders offense has been inconsistent at best. They don't have enough threats down the field. 

I see this as a buttoned up game where there a lot of runs and short passes. Three Denver games in a row have stayed under this very low total. I think this will be a fourth straight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an over team. Texas Tech is playing at a top 15 tempo in the country. They are also throwing it on 55% of their offensive plays. Behren Morton is more than capable of throwing a pick six with some of the dangerous throws he makes, but he will also impress with some great ones. Tahj Brooks is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. 

Arizona's Noah Fifita is an excellent quarterback. He makes good decisions and has a 90.0 PFF passer rating so far this year, which is excellent. He has one of the best wide receivers in the country in McMillan, and no one in the Texas Tech secondary has much of a chance of even slowing him down.

These two teams are 15th (Tech) and 4th (Arizona) in explosiveness in the country. There should be a lot of big plays from both offenses. Texas Tech is 115th in explosiveness allowed on defense and Arizona is 49th.

Three of Texas Tech's five games this year have gotten to at least 85 points total. I think this one will be another high scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level terrible. Ball State is 133rd in the country in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up a mind boggling 8.65 yards per play. Ball State has allowed 39 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

Ball State has allowed a minimum of 34 points in every game this year. Missouri State scored 34 points. Central Michigan scored 37 points. Miami scored 62 points on them. James Madison scored 63 points on them. 

Western Michigan is 112th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in success rate allowed. Ball State has faced some pretty good defenses in Miami and James Madison. Western Michigan is a clear step down from them. I think the Ball State passing attack should be able to do some work here.

Western Michigan's ground attack will be too good for Ball State. Western Michigan is just 28% on 3rd down so far this year, but I expect that to improve. The Broncos have played very good defenses this year. Now, they play arguably the worst defense in the country.

The weather looks good for Saturday here with clear skies forecast and a temperature in the 70's with 4 mph wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have been extremely impressed by Northern Illinois on the defensive end this year. Northern Illinois allowed just 286 yards and 4.7 yards per play against Notre Dame. They allowed just 184 yards and 3.4 YPP despite an overtime against Buffalo. They allowed just 171 yards and 3.6 YPP against NC State last weekend.

UMass has struggled offensively because they just don't have enough of a running game. Northern Illinois has an excellent secondary and the Huskies should be in the backfield quite a bit in this one.

The UMass defense is much improved this year. They only allowed 258 yards against a good Toledo offense. They allowed just 349 yards and 5.7 YPP in overtime against Miami last week. 

The pace of this game should be extremely slow. Both teams are slow pace wise and aren't typically very explosive on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders haven't punted in their last two games. Jayden Daniels and this Washington Commanders offense have made it to where Tress Way hasn't been needed in the punting game. Jayden Daniels has been clutch with his throwing ability on the deep ball and using his legs a lot as well. He is the ultimate dual threat quarterback.

Arizona's Kyler Murray is finally fully healthy again too and he is playing much better. It helps him to have improved weapons on the outside. The Cardinals are 9th in the NFL in yards per play so far this season. 

These two defenses are both subpar. There just isn't that much talent on either stop unit. Arizona is 19th in yards per play allowed, but I expect that number to get worse throughout the year as well. Washington is second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bengals put up 7.3 yards per play on them last week.

This one being played in a dome with the total coming down to the key number of 49, I like the value to the over. I see both offenses having big play ability throughout. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* There should be a bunch of tempo in this game. Washington State 13th in tempo in the country. Boise State 41st despite playing from the lead much of the time.

Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the country. Boise State has an unreal six rushing plays of 60 yards or more already this season! They are averaging 8.81 yards per carry. Washington State has had significant trouble defending the run. The Cougars are 107th in the nation in YPC allowed and they have allowed 22 rushes for 10 yards or more already this season.

John Mateer has been good for Washington State. The Cougars have scored 37 points or more in three games already this year. Washington State is going against a Boise State defense that isn't very good. The Broncos are 78th in success rate allowed and 119th in explosiveness allowed.

These two teams are first (Washington State) and tenth (Boise State) in explosiveness on offense. Both of them are top 40 tempo teams too. A lot of pace and explosiveness in this one. The weather forecast looks great with virtually no wind also.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans are 102nd in the nation in tempo. That is despite the fact that they have been playing from behind a lot this year. UL Monroe is 132nd out of 134 teams in the country in tempo. The Warhawks clearly want to play very slowly. 

UL Monroe has just 3 plays of 30 yards or more this season. This offense isn't explosive at all. Troy is 83rd in offensive success rate. The Trojans are just 100th in rushing play success rate on offense. 

UL Monroe has done a good job keeping everything in front of them. They have allowed only 3 plays of 30 yards or more on defense despite playing Texas and UAB. 

These are two teams who are limited on offense and struggle to punch it in once they get into the red zone. The tempo that this game will be played at means there shouldn't be very many possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes lost two quarterbacks for the season in last week's game against Penn State. Ulatowski will start here because he really is the only option. Ulatowski has been dealing with a finger injury too, and he isn't 100 percent healthy. Even when everyone is healthy this is a terrible offense. Kent State averages 1.67 yards per carry on the season. The Golden Flashes have no explosiveness. They have only 7 plays of 20 yards or more in four games.

Eastern Michigan is typically a conservative team who likes to win lower scoring contests under Chris Creighton. Eastern Michigan is 107th in explosiveness in the country, so the Eagles aren't breaking many big gainers either. Eastern Michigan is averaging just 2.90 yards per carry. 

Last year these two met and it was 28-14 with low offensive success rates. I see Kent State being ultra conservative here with no playmakers and a hurt quarterback. Eastern Michigan should play from the lead and slow things down too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes just score 70 points in an epic 70-50 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. James Madison has found a really good quarterback in Alonza Barnett. He can win with him arm or his legs at any time. 

James Madison is 21st in the country in explosiveness on offense. The Dukes have had a nice balance of run and passing success.

Ball State ranks dead last in the country in total defense so far this year. The Cardinals are atrocious against the run. They just allowed Central Michigan to run for 335 yards last game, and the Chippewas aren't a rushing powerhouse by any means. Ball State allowed 34 points against Missouri State (FCS). James Madison should put up a big number here.

Ball State has picked up the pace a bit. They are throwing it around and Kadin Semonza is at least a decent quarterback. They did win big, but James Madison allowed UNC's Criswell to throw for 475 yards.

Ball State is giving up 8.88 yards per play which is just crazy. This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen rushing attack is much more dynamic this year than it was last season. Navy has seen all 3 games go over the posted total. Navy has reached 49 points, 38 points, and 56 points by themselves on offense in their three contests. They are averaging 6.45 yards per carry on the season. Navy ran for 361 yards against Memphis last week in a 56-44 win.

UAB plays at a quick pace. The Blazers are 26th in the nation in tempo. UAB has a solid quarterback in Zeno. They should get some decent chances against a Navy team that is weakest in the secondary. 

UAB defensively is 102nd in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They were beaten badly on the ground by UL Monroe.

Navy is playing at a faster pace than they have in recent seasons. They aren't breaking any records, but they are no longer playing at an extremely slow pace. Navy already has 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls upset the Northern Illinois Huskies on Saturday 23-02, but Buffalo couldn't do anything on offense in that game. They finished with just 184 total yards. Buffalo is averaging only 4.5 yards per play on the season. The Bulls are 122nd in the nation in offensive success rate. 

UConn just ran for 421 yards against Florida Atlantic this past weekend. I wouldn't expect a repeat here. UConn only ran for 88 yards against Maryland. They only had 4.6 yards per play overall against Duke. 

Defensively, Buffalo has been elite at preventing big plays. Opponents have only two plays of 30 yards or more all season against the Bulls.

Both of these teams are running the football on about 65% of their offensive plays. Both of these teams have the ability to get into the backfield and get the opposition behind the chains at times. 

A lot of running and the clock moving quickly here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions more than doubled the Tampa Bay Bucs in yardage last week. They just couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities. They moved the ball well between the 20's. I think Jared Goff and this Lions offense are a tough matchup for Arizona on the fast track here. The Cardinals defense is below average and I think they lack the playmakers in the secondary to keep the Lions quiet throughout this game. 

Arizona looks like a completely different offense this year. It is evident that Kyler Murray is much healthier than he was last year. He looks like a completely different quarterback. It sure helps to add a star wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. as well. James Conner is running it well also.

Both of these teams have coaches who are willing to be aggressive at times on offense in late downs and I think that is a benefit to the over in this game. 

I see plenty of big plays both ways.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have made the move to Andy Dalton. If they wanted to be competitive, they had to make the move. Bryce Young was just struggling far too much. We saw the market react by moving toward Carolina and the over as soon as the move was announced. I think that is justified. Andy Dalton is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

Gardner Minshew and the Raiders aren't great, but they are good enough against subpar secondaries like Carolina.

This is a very low total for a game with two poor defenses involved. The two teams are both bottom 10 defenses in the league. They are 25th and 27th in the league in yards per play allowed thus far.

Early in the season (September/October) when we see totals of 42.5 or lower in a non divisional game the over has been a great move in the last decade. This particular game is an even stronger over system with this one being played inside at Allegiant Stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toledo Rockets just destroyed Mississippi State in Starkville this past weekend. Nothing about their win looked like a fluke. Their offensive was humming. Now, the Mississippi State defense is certainly bad, but it was still impressive for a MAC school against an SEC team.

Western Kentucky brought in backup quarterback Veltkamp last week in their win over MTSU after Finley was injured. Veltkamp went a whopping 27/30 for 398 yards passing and 5 TD's/0 INT's. A ridiculous line. 

On the other side, Western Kentucky allowed a really bad MTSU offense to put up 9.5 yards per play on them. The Blue Raiders were slinging it around in the second half with very little defense at all holding them back. I think Toledo's Gleason will have a lot of success throwing it here.

Toledo's tempo was slower last week because they were blowing out Miss State, but they have generally been top 35 in the nation in tempo. Western Kentucky is 34th in tempo. There should be a lot of possessions in this game with both offenses being pretty explosive as well.

I see the offenses having the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The N Texas defense- it’s nearly impossible to say anything nice about them. Gave up 7.1 YPP to S Bama and 8.3 YPP to Tex Tech. N Texas was an over train last year and I don’t see anything to make me think they are anything different this year. 116th in explosiveness allowed.

Wyoming's offense is bad, but this will be the worst defense they have faced yet. On the other side though, the Wyoming defense is MUCH worse than expected. They allowed 6.8 YPP against BYU. They allowed 7.0 YPP against Arizona State even though the Sun Devils shut it down in the 4th quarter. We aren’t accustomed to seeing bad Wyoming defenses, but it looks like this group is weak.

Chandler Morris is an over quarterback. He will hit some big gainers but could throw a pick six at any time.

Another plus in this one is the game time temperature of 92 degrees. Those very hot temperatures have been good to over bettors in the past. The defenses can have a tough time tackling in the heat.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are first in the nation in tempo. They are going to get a lot of plays off and very quickly. Liberty plays at about an average pace, but they are well known for their explosive plays with Salter at quarterback and Chadwell as a bright offensive mind at coach.

East Carolina has had major trouble with turnovers and red zone efficiency on offense this year. If those can regress toward the mean, the Pirates have the ability to score a lot of points with the pace they are playing at. Liberty's biggest weakness by far is their secondary, and East Carolina is going to throw the ball early and often.

East Carolina is good on the defensive front, but the Pirates secondary can be beaten. I expect Salter to be able to create some plays with his legs and his arm in this one.

I had this number a good amount higher than this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams offense has been a huge disappointment so far this year. Colorado State was shut out by Texas which is at least somewhat understandable. They were also held to only 9 points by Colorado, and the Buffaloes defense is only mediocre. 

Tory Horton is reportedly doubtful for this game. Horton is easily the best player on this Colorado State offense, and with him slowed down or not playing at all, this offense isn't even close to the same. Fowler-Nicolosi is still young and the running game hasn't been consistent. 

UTEP is 108th in the nation in yards per play on offense. They haven't had much of an identity on offense so far this year. The Miners only put up 10 points on Liberty and could only score 24 against Southern Utah in an overtime game.

These two offenses are near the bottom of the nation in explosiveness on the season thus far.

The weather on Saturday in Fort Collins is notable too. The current average of four weather forecasts calls for 18 mph winds with gusts of about 33 mph during this game. There is a chance for showers as well. This kind of wind can really change a game and make the play calling more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have a new coach in Pete Lembo. He is a defensive minded coach, and Buffalo's secondary is a clear strength. The Bulls still have to find an identity on offense though. 

Buffalo is terrible on the offensive line. The Bulls also have big weaknesses at both the quarterback and running back positions. The overall lack of talent on this offense is striking. Buffalo scored 0 against Missouri earlier this year. They just scored 34 against UMass, but had just 5.2 yards per play in that game. 

Northern Illinois is coming off that huge win at Notre Dame. I'm really impressed with the coaching staff of the Huskies and their strength on the defensive line. Northern Illinois plays at a slow pace. They are 107th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Both of these teams run the ball about 64% of the time on offense. There should be a lot of moving clock and I wouldn't expect many possessions in this game. 

I think both defenses can prevent the explosive plays quite well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs have major cluster injury issues in the secondary. They have four defensive backs injured. The Bucs secondary has some pretty good pieces to start with, but they lack depth. I think that will show in this one. 

Detroit has the weapons to take advantage of this weakness especially on the fast track in Detroit. Jared Goff with St. Brown and Sam Laporta and company should have a big game here. The Lions also have a good running attack. Detroit has great balance as an offense.

The Tampa Bay offense put up 37 points last week. Baker Mayfield has talked about feeling great in new OC Liam Coen's scheme. The Bucs have really underrated weapons on the outside. Mike Evans is a star and is a tough cover for anyone. Godwin is more of a possession receiver, but he comes up with big plays. White is an explosive back too. 

The Lions defense really struggled with this Bucs offense in the playoffs last year. That game went over this total. This game means less and with the new rules in the NFL the scoring should be a bit higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a completely different type of team under Jeff Lebby this year. Their goal is to play as quickly as possible and be aggressive on offense. They'll look to throw it around quite a bit. Blake Shapen is a good fit at quarterback for this system. 

Toledo lost a superstar defensive back in Quinyon Mitchell from last year. The Rockets secondary is much weaker than it has been in recent seasons. Toledo is without star LB Gant from last year too. 

Toledo has a good quarterback in Gleason and a really good group of wide receivers. The Rockets should be able to move the ball against a Bulldogs defense that is way down from a year ago as well. 

Both of these teams are ranked in the top 18 in the country in terms of pace of play. There should be a bunch of possessions here.

There is a small chance of some rain during this one, but the winds are very minimal and that is the key. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers just lost 32-6 to ULM last week in an embarrassing performance. UAB's defense is 68th in the nation in yards per carry allowed, and their two opponents played have been Alcorn State and ULM. That's a very weak schedule of rushing attacks. 

Arkansas is coming off a heartbreaking double OT loss against Oklahoma State. Still, the Razorbacks offense showed us a lot in that game. Arkansas put up 648 yards of offense and 7.0 YPP. Taylen Green looks great in Petrino's offense. Arkansas is playing very quickly too. There is no reason to believe UAB can even slow them down in this game.

The Arkansas defense is susceptible against the pass, and I think Zeno and company can do some work through the air here. UAB is a top 30 tempo team, and they will be pushing for extra possessions in this one.

This number has dipped a couple points, and at this number I have to go with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing much faster this year. They are running the air raid and pushing the pace to the extreme. They are 4th in the nation in tempo. East Carolina has turned the ball over quite a bit in opponent territory so far this year, but they have been moving the ball well. East Carolina had 466 yards of offense against a pretty decent Old Dominion defense last week. 

Appalachian State just gave up 66 points to Clemson last week. Cade Klubnik went 24/26 passing against this secondary. They'll look much better in this game than that, but there are troubling signs for the Mountaineers defense overall. 

Appalachian State's offense is excellent in the passing game with Joey Aguilar. They have the best wide receivers in the Sun Belt, and they'll be very tough covers for East Carolina. They are 28th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

These two teams played last year and Appalachian State won 43-28. Now, East Carolina is playing much quicker than they did a year ago. 

I think this total is set too low by a good amount. Look for a lot of passing and a fast pace. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I would expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to play slowly, and be very run heavy compared to the average NFL team this year. Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith who will lean on the running game. I don't think the running game will be very efficient either. Russell Wilson isn't a good quarterback at this stage of his career either.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a major injury and didn't play any in the preseason. He is likely to have some rust. The Steelers defense is a really tough one to go up against when they are healthy, as they are right now. 

The Falcons defense upgraded by getting Judon in the offseason and locking in two very good safeties. 

I expect this to be slower paced and without fireworks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Washington State won 70-30 over Portland State last weekend. John Mateer was in a tight quarterback battle with Cam Ward before last year, and Washington State is in pretty good shape at quarterback with him and Eckhaus both in the fold this year. Mateer threw for 352 yards and 5 TD's on just 17 attempts. Washington State put up a whopping 12.5 yards per play in week one.

Texas Tech won 52-51 in overtime over Abilene Christian in week one. They allowed 615 yards to FCS Abilene Christian. This Red Raiders secondary lost a ton from last year, and they allowed more than 500 passing yards to Abilene. 

Ben Arbuckle is a great offensive coordinator and I think Washington State will be ready with tempo and a ton of deep looks down the field against this weakened Texas Tech secondary.

On the other side, Washington State allowed 30 points against Portland state, and this Cougars defense is down a lot from last year. They are bad against the run and Tahj Brooks is a really underrated running back for Texas Tech. Morton is a good passer who should have a big game here.

Who's going to get stops? I don't think there will be very many.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense looked like a well oiled machine against Chattanooga last week. Yes it was Chattanooga, but the Mocs are actually a pretty decent FCS team. Nico Iamaleava is a budding star at quarterback. The Volunteers were winning so big that he didn't play a large portion of the game, but when he was in he looked fantastic. Remember, it was Nico who carved up an amazing Iowa defense in the bowl game last year.

Tennessee vowed to play tempo to the extreme this year, and they played ridiculously fast in game one. They averaged just 19.44 seconds between plays, and that is with slowing down some late with a huge lead. They'll push the tempo here.

NC State struggled with Western Carolina. NC State's defense was very poor in that game. In fact, Western Carolina ran for 6.32 yards per carry in that game. Tennessee's offensive line is very good and I think they'll clear quite a few holes here.

The weakness of the Tennessee team is their secondary. The Volunteers will give up big plays through the air. That's exactly where I think McCall and the NC State offense can have success. With NC State likely playing from behind here, I expect them to throw it around and hit some big ones against this Volunteers secondary.

I like both offenses chances of moving the ball a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes and Arkansas State Red Wolves both want to play fast. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game with both teams running their uptempo offense. 

Tulsa put up 62 points on Northwestern State in game one. Francis played very well at quarterback. Arkansas State allowed 7.1 yards per play against Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves defense appears to still have major problems this season.

Arkansas State has a star quarterback in Jalen Raynor. Raynor has good WR's to throw it to, and this Tulsa secondary is a bottom 20 secondary in the country. I think Arkansas State moves the ball well in this one. 

Two defenses who have a history of being weak and giving up a ton of explosive plays. Two offenses who play fast and will take chances down the field. I see a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coming off a shootout game against N Texas. They had 582 yards of offense, but still lost by 14 points. The Jaguars ran tempo for much of the game. They averaged only 22 seconds between snaps- very quick. They ran 84 plays in game one. Gio Lopez looks like a pretty decent QB for this S Alabama system. He threw for 432 yards and ran for 62 on 13 carries. Ohio’s secondary is completely new and they were absolutely torched by McCord and Syracuse last week.

Kane Wommack is a great defensive mind, and him being gone hurts South Alabama in a big way. Ohio had 10 rushes for 10 yards or more in game one against Syracuse. I don't think Syracuse's defense is good, but they are better than the South Alabama defense.

South Alabama should push the pace, and Ohio's defense is no longer the stout unit they were in the past. South Alabama gave up 52 points against North Texas.

I think this total is too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange showed their improvements on offense last week in their 38-22 win over Ohio. Syracuse averaged 6.86 yards per play. The Orange got a good game out of Kyle McCord. Gadsden is an elite tight end and I expect a big season from him. LeQuint Allen is an underrated running back too. 

For as good as the offense looked for Syracuse, the defense looked that bad. They allowed 6.54 yards per carry against an Ohio running attack that I don't expect to be very good. They were gashed by a team that had very little deep passing attack to keep them honest. The worst news of all for Syracuse was their star Marlowe Wax, the team's best defender, was injured and the coaching staff said they expect him to miss a few weeks.

Georgia Tech played very slowly tempo wise in the game against Florida State as part of the game plan, but they played at a normal pace last week. The Yellow Jackets offense is really tough to defend with an excellent OC in Buster Faulkner and a dual threat quarterback in Haynes King. They should get a lot of big gainers on Syracuse.

The Yellow Jackets defense is still a problem. They played a Florida State offense with issues and then a Georgia State offense that is extremely weak. They still are allowing 4.13 yards per carry. This is a defense I don't trust. 

Syracuse pushed the pace in week one and I think they will here too. Georgia Tech's offensive efficiency should continue.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls have a terrible offensive line and a subpar quarterback in Cam Fancher. Florida Atlantic is going to struggle badly on offense this year. They put up just 10 points on a Michigan State team that isn't loaded by any means on defense. Florida Atlantic does have a very tough defense with the front seven being a clear strength.

Army used 31 seconds between plays in week one, and they will be one of the slowest paced teams in the country this year. They are expected to be extremely run heavy this year. In their first game, Army attempted 8 passes and ran the ball 46 times. I would expect something similar here unless they get down big early. With the spread inside a field goal, that isn't too likely.

The Army defense could struggle against high powered passing attacks, but Florida Atlantic is definitely not that type of team. 

I think this one will be a tight hard fought battle where the defenses have the advantage. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have played slowly on offense under Poggi. I would expect them to do their best to try to win sloppy low scoring games. The Charlotte defense is the strength of the team. Poggi is a defensive minded coach. Charlotte was able to pick up a bunch of secondary transfers in the portal. The pass defense should improve this season. The defensive line was a solid unit last year and should be again. 

Charlotte lacks the star power at QB/RB/WR to put up a lot of points on hardly anyone. They have some solid TE's and they will use them as much as they can. 

James Madison gets a whole new look this year. Chesney has been a good coach for many years and I like the hire of him. I think it is likely that JMU will want to establish the run with this offense. The wide receivers are a weakness for the Dukes. The James Madison defense is clearly way down from last year, but I still think it is an above average Sun Belt defense. I think they can limit big plays.

I expect a fairly slow tempo for both teams. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies have defensive mastermind Mike Elko as their new head coach. Elko is one of the best defensive minds in the nation. It's also especially interesting in this one because he knows Riley Leonard, the new Notre Dame quarterback, as well as anyone. Leonard was the quarterback for Elko last year at Duke.

I expect the extremely young Notre Dame offensively line to struggle badly against Scourton and the stars on the defensive line for Texas A&M. Notre Dame is unlikely to have much time throw the ball down the field here. I think they'll play things pretty safe on offense.

The Notre Dame defense has stars on the defensive line in Cross and Mills as well. Texas A&M has a new offense to learn and an extremely tough defense to test it out against here. I think the Aggies will play at a slower pace than most teams this year on the whole.

The two defenses have the upper hand here, and the defensive lines have the single biggest advantages. I think it will be tough to move the ball here, and when the teams do move the ball I think they'll settle for field goals pretty often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines still have an absolutely elite defensive line. I think Mason Graham is going to be a major problem for nearly every opponent this year. Michigan should dominate Fresno State's offensive line in this one. Mikey Keene is a solid quarterback, but I don't think he'll have much time at all to throw here. The Fresno State running backs aren't going to have room to run either.

Michigan's offense lost so much from last year. McCarthy was a great leader and he made things happen when the play was busted. I expect Orji to get most of the snaps at quarterback for Michigan here. He's a good scrambler, but I don't know that Michigan trusts him a lot in the passing game yet. Fresno State is an excellent secondary, and I do expect them to make things tough on the Michigan passing attack.

Michigan should play slowly under Sherrone Moore, and I would expect a very run heavy attack. The Wolverines play Texas next weekend in one of the biggest non-conference clashes of the season this year. Why would Michigan put a lot on tape here for Texas to see? The Wolverines should be happy to run the ball and be pretty vanilla on offense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State is in their first season of FBS action. I expect them to run the ball early and often from their pistol option offensive attack. They should also play very slowly and attempt to reduce the amount of possessions here. 

UTSA should be a little less explosive without Frank Harris at quarterback. The Roadrunners have big games against Texas State and Texas coming up right after this. The Roadrunners are unlikely to show anything too much in a game like this. I think they'll be less likely to want to run up the score than they would in a different situation.

The UTSA defensive line should be too much for the Kennesaw State offensive front that is a clear question mark heading into the season.

UTSA should win comfortably here and I think Kennesaw State struggles to do much scoring at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have a very good offense. The Detroit Lions offense is good as well. I still think this total is set a little too high.

The 49ers will have Deebo Samuel in this game, but he isn't 100 percent. He's a game changer and him at less than 100 percent is a clear negative. The Lions defense has been top five in stopping the run all season. The 49ers run at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line should be able to get in the backfield some when the 49ers pass it as well.

The 49ers defense is really good. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but his inconsistency away from home makes me wonder how good he can be in this spot. The 49ers are third in the NFL in points allowed. San Francisco's offense often gets talked about far more, but the defense has been fantastic consistently this season. 

A total in the low 50's with teams who don't play that fast and with so much on the line- I think it is a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a great over team at home throughout the course of the season. Detroit's Jared Goff has some tremendous weapons around him. St. Brown is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. LaPorta is trying to work back from an injury. If he plays it is a nice bonus. The Lions likely try to throw it quite a bit here, which I think helps the over.

Baker Mayfield has been good in this Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a big play receiver, and the Lions will have trouble defending him. Detroit's defense was fortunate to not give up more points last week. I'm not convinced they will always be able to bend without breaking in the red zone. 

Overs in the playoffs in dome games have cashed at a 64.7% clip in the NFL in the past 15 years. The fast track should be great for these offenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I see the Kansas City Chiefs as a straight under team in their current form. Kansas City's offense has no longer been explosive at all. The wide receivers are just too big of a liability. Travis Kelce is still good, but he isn't quite as good as he was a few years ago. 

Miami's offense was amazing against the weaker teams this year, but they weren't consistently great against good defenses. The Chiefs defense is very solid.

The first matchup between these two in Germany was 21-14. This game will be played outdoors in some brutal weather conditions. A temperature of around zero degrees during the game with wind chills dropping to 20 or 25 degrees below zero. The key is the wind. In these conditions I think the play calling will be a bit more conservative. 

The Chiefs have played five straight games under this number. Three of Miami's last four games have stayed under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in what should be an epic semifinal in the Rose Bowl. Michigan was the more consistent team through the year, but Alabama's talent is second to none. The Wolverines offense has struggled a bit to get going at times this year. The Wolverines defense has been solid as ever this year.

Michigan defensively has no clear weakness. The Wolverines are 6th in YPC allowed and 6th in the country in opposing QBR allowed. While Alabama has been quite explosive on offense, Michigan has done a great job not giving up big plays this season. 

Alabama's offense has relied more on explosives than normal. Milroe is a fantastic play maker, but he does take too many big negative plays. I think the Michigan pass rush can give him a difficult time here. 

The Alabama defense is supremely talented. They are good against the run, and the secondary is elite. Michigan is 112th in explosiveness on offense. The Wolverines are just 75th in the country in yards per carry. Without Zinter, their best offensive lineman, I think Michigan will have a hard time just running it right at Alabama here. 

Michigan is dead last (133rd) in the country in pace of play. The Wolverines are going to be happy to move very slowly and take a lot of time on their drives. Alabama is 105th in tempo, so they play pretty slowly as well.

I like the defenses to make it hard for the opposing offenses here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

The LA Rams offense has been on fire of late. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games at 6.2 yards per play. Los Angeles has scored 28 points or more in five straight games. They have scored 30 points or more in four of those five games. 

The Giants defense is a below average unit. It is hard to see this Giants secondary slowing down Stafford and the Rams good receivers in the passing game.

New York's offense hasn't been great, but it has improved of late. They are averaging 4.9 yards per play in their last three games. The Rams defense has been giving up a lot of points late in recent games after they have a lead. New York should get chances to score later in the game even if they aren't efficient early on.

Five Rams games in a row have finished with 48 points or more. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have been able to make almost every game they play in a shootout this year. In fact, eight of their last nine games have gone over this total. The one that didn't go over was still at 52 points. 

The Memphis defense gives up loads of big plays. They have given up 71 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Iowa State is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. Becht has done a great job as quarterback for the Cyclones.

Iowa State's secondary was pretty good during the year, but they are shorthanded here. TJ Tampa is a star in the secondary and he has opted out. Malik Verdell is injured and is questionable to play too.

Seth Henigan and the Memphis offense should be able to do enough to get this game over the number. Memphis is averaging 39.6 points per game this year. This is a better defense than they usually face, but I think the Memphis team speed on offense can get them some scores.

Iowa State has a huge advantage on offense, and I like Memphis to be able to score when playing from behind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs defense was underrated all season long. SMU ranked fourth in success rate allowed in the country. They were 12th in the nation in YPC allowed. The strong run defense of SMU is key here since Boston College runs it on 60% of their plays for the year as a whole. Boston College has been even more run heavy in recent weeks.

Castellanos for Boston College has been banged up and the BC offense has been much more buttoned up of late. Boston College comes into this game very short handed at both running back and wide receiver based on the transfer portal. I don't trust the BC offense to get much done here.

SMU is without Preston Stone at quarterback. They are more conservative with Jennings at quarterback. This Mustangs offense is solid, but not spectacular.

Fenway Park is the venue here and this game has a history of a lot of windy games with poor weather in general. It's an 11 am eastern kickoff in Boston in winter. The long range forecast calls for rain showers and a decent amount of wind. I like the under even without weather, but this could be a nice bonus too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns defense has been amazing at home this year. The Browns defense has been mediocre on the road. Cleveland is allowing just 3.5 yards per play at home. They are giving up 5.9 yards per play on the road. 

Houston does have a backup quarterback here in Case Keenum, but with another week under his belt it should help at least some. Nico Collins is back at practice Thursday which is a positive development too.

The Cleveland offense has been much improved with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Their pass rate has gone up a bunch too. Cleveland's offense is taking more shots down the field, and that is a positive development for over bettors in my opinion. Cleveland has a solid 5.2 yards per play on offense in their last three games.

This game being played in a dome which is definitely a positive for the over. At a low number, I'll side with the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks take on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday. Seattle is set to have Geno Smith back at quarterback in this one. Smith is still a better quarterback than Drew Lock, and Seattle has some good skill position talent around him. The Seahawks offense is healthier than they have been in quite a while. 

The Tennessee Titans are a below average defense. They are now even weaker with their significant injury issues. Simmons is a star lineman, and they miss him badly. The secondary is very shorthanded as well. Look for the Seattle receivers to get open a lot in this one.

Ryan Tannehill is set to be the starter for the Titans here. While Levis has shown some ability, I actually think Tannehill is at least slightly better than Levis right now. Tannehill has a lot to prove right now too, so I expect him to be aggressive. 

The Seattle defense is bottom five in the NFL in the last three games, and they are definitely a bottom ten unit for the year overall.

This is a low total for the shape of the two defenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather situations have gotten worse for this game. This is a late game on Sunday and the forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts in the 20's. There is expected to be rain showers at times during the game too.

Buffalo absolutely has to win this game. The Bills are definitely playing better of late, and it has been their defense that has improved the most. They are getting a bit healthier on defense. Buffalo is giving up just 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. The Bills have also allowed only 4.8 yards per play at home this year.

Dallas has been excellent on defense this year. They are giving up just 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Cowboys have done a good job limiting the big plays. 

Both of these teams are in the bottom ten in the NFL in pace of play.

In this year's NFL this is a fairly high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers offense is the worst offense in the NFL. It isn't even close. Carolina is averaging a dreadful 4.0 yards per play. The second worst offense in the NFL is at 4.3 yards per play. It has gotten worse in recent weeks too for Carolina, and I see no signs of improvement coming soon.

Atlanta is averaging just 4.4 yards per play on the road. Desmond Ridder has been pretty good at home and terrible on the road. 

These two defenses rank 10th (Atlanta) and 11th (Carolina) in yards per play allowed this year. These are defenses that have a clear advantage going into this game.

The weather here calls for rain and winds in the 15 to 25 mph range during this game. This is a field that has been a problem in the past with rain based on poor footing.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills offense is still a top five offense in the NFL. Without Ken Dorsey, this Bills offense has been more aggressive and they have looked to run Josh Allen more often.

The Bills defense is still a bit banged up and this unit is no better than an average NFL unit at best. 

Kansas City's offense has been less explosive in general, but the Chiefs are still top 8 in the NFL in yards per play. The Chiefs have to be aggressive here on offense coming off such a poor performance in Green Bay last week.

The Chiefs defense has quietly really fallen off of late. They have allowed 5.6 YPP in their last three games. 

I think both offenses should play well here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns offense is a mess right now. Regardless of who is the quarterback for this game, it will be a position where the Browns have a clear weakness. Cleveland's offense is third worst in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. They are only ahead of the lowly Panthers and Jets.

The Cleveland defense is one of the best in the NFL and they are holding opponents to an average of just 3.4 yards per play when at home. Cleveland's defense had a subpar performance against the Rams, and I would expect a bounce back here.

The Jaguars offense is middle of the pack in the NFL. The defense is a little worse, but they are against a weak offense here.

The weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast for this one calls for rain and winds of about 25 mph with gusts above 30 mph. Multiple sites are showing similar forecasts here. We know Cleveland is a place where the weather matters a lot with the stadium so close to the lake. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been scoring a lot of points, and their defense has shown to have major problems in recent weeks. In the Lions last four games, there has been an average combined total of 61.5 points. 

Detroit is allowing 5.6 yards per play in their last three games. This is looking like a bottom ten defense or so. The Lions are clearly a top five offense too. Detroit has good balance on offense and they have been able to cash in well in the red zone.

The Chicago Bears offense is improving. The Bears scored 26 points on Detroit a couple weeks ago and they probably should have won the game in Detroit. The Bears defense is still a below average unit.

The total here was pushed down earlier in the week due to potential weather concerns. The forecast here has changed though and the current weather calls for no precipitation and winds of just 12 mph. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans are 5th in the NFL in yards per play this year. C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense has surprised the NFL in general. Tank Dell has been a great weapon on the outside. Houston would have had bigger numbers on offense last week against Jacksonville if it weren't for a couple questionable penalties called on big gainers. The Texans are unlikely to be slowed down too much by a Denver defense that is still clearly below average. Their recent numbers look better, but their last two games have been against backup quarterbacks. The defense of the Broncos gets a much tougher test here.

The Denver Broncos offense is at least an average unit now. The new coaching staff has really helped them a lot. Denver has scored 21 points or more in four straight games. They now go play in a dome against a Houston defense that is allowing 6.3 YPP in their last three games. 

The fast track here and two offenses with the capability of creating explosive plays at any time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots defense is still pretty good. The Patriots are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. New England's defense is put in bad spots, but they are still a quality unit.

The LA Chargers have shown the ability to move the ball well, but find ways to not score touchdowns. I think the Patriots can slow them down and limit the explosive plays.

New England has a terrible quarterback problem, and they do lack skill position players in general on offense. The Pats offense has progressively gotten worse throughout the year.

The weather here calls for rain throughout the game with wind gusts of 20 mph. This should make for some more conservative play calls during the game.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* FSU put up just 3.9 yards per play on a bad Florida defense last week. I know it is a rivalry game, but that is concerning. Florida had been getting torched weekly until last week. FSU 4th in explosiveness on offense for the year, but likely less explosive with Tate Rodemaker at QB. 

Louisville defense 40th in YPP allowed, but 21st at PFF in overall defense grade. 6th in defensive line yards. FSU is 111th in offensive line yards. I don’t think FSU can just run it down their throats. 

Louisville 91st in OFF Line yards. FSU 13th in DEF Line yards. I think the Cardinals ground game has trouble getting going too. The FSU defense has been underrated throughout the season. Louisville's Plummer has been inconsistent at quarterback this year.

There is some rain and a little wind in the forecast as well.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* Preston Stone is a key loss for SMU at quarterback. Jennings has very little experience at quarterback.

SMU gave up just 4.4 yards per play in the AAC. Amazing! The Mustangs held 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. 

Tulane’s offense didn’t really work nearly as well as expected this year. Tulane was 108th in rushing play success rate on offense- very low for a Willie Fritz coached team. SMU 11th in rushing play success rate allowed.

SMU has a great pass rush. 5th in the country in pass rush grade at PFF. 40 sacks!! Pratt is good but I think he’ll be under pressure more than normal here. 

Tulane plays at a slow pace. They run on 60% of offensive plays.

SMU offense should be a bit more conservative with Jennings. If anything I would expect more running. The Tulane run defense has been elite. The way to beat the Tulane defense has been passing.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets won 17-7 last year in the MAC Title game against an Ohio Bobcats team without their star quarterback. Toledo ran the ball over and over again in that game and grinded it out. Now, Toledo goes into the title game in the MAC against a Miami team without star quarterback Brett Gabbert.

Aveon Smith has struggled badly for Miami. Miami is going to want to run the football as much as they can and move very slowly. They don't want a high scoring game, because their offense simply isn't good enough to win shootouts. Toledo does give up successful running plays, but they are excellent in the secondary and they don't give up explosive plays. Miami's drives should take a bunch of time off the clock. 

Toledo had just 4.3 yards per play in their 21-17 win over Miami in the regular season. The Rockets want to run the ball a lot, but Miami has the best run defense in the MAC. Miami has allowed 21 points or fewer in every MAC game they have played this year. 

I don't think we'll see many big plays here. Toledo likely wins, but Miami's defense won't make it easy.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is still underrated. Kansas City fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. 

Las Vegas has changed their style of play for their new coach. They are running the ball more and trying to keep games lower scoring and win with defense. The Raiders defense is 16th in DVOA and they have a strong pass rush.

These two teams are both top eight in the NFL in explosiveness allowed. They don't give up the big plays very often.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo. 

Las Vegas has had nine games in a row stay under this posted total. The Chiefs have had 3 straight games go under this posted total. A combined 12 straight games under this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills are third in the NFL in yards per play and all the advanced stats still show this Buffalo offense as a top five offense. Josh Allen and this offense looked good against a good Jets defense last week in their first week without Dorsey as OC. Buffalo's passing attack has a nice edge over the Eagles secondary. Philadelphia's one weakness as a team is their secondary. I think Buffalo can take advantage of that weakness.

The Philadelphia Eagles offense has been a little inconsistent this year, but I think they can play well against a Buffalo defense that isn't good in its current state. The Bills defense has suffered a ton of key injuries. 

These two teams rank 16th and 17th in yards per play allowed. Both offenses have big play ability.

Rain is the in forecast, but there isn't any wind to speak of in the forecast and that is the big key.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers defense ranks first in explosiveness allowed. The Maryland defense ranks 8th in explosiveness allowed. These two are very good at not giving up that huge play. 

Rutgers is 127th in the nation in tempo. The Scarlet Knights are going to play slowly, and they are going to run the football as often as possible.

Rutgers is 10th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Schiano's defenses always play very hard and this one is no different. The strength of their defense is their secondary. Maryland likes to throw the ball and Rutgers should have the guys to slow them down.

Maryland's defense is much improved this year. They are 25th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

The Rutgers offense has scored 16 points total in the last two years against Maryland. They will likely struggle again here. Rutgers is much better defensively this year than the last two years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies offense has hit a whole new gear in recent weeks. With Drones at quarterback instead of Wells, this is a much more explosive offense. Drones has been very good running and good enough in the passing game too. VA Tech put up 7.6 yards per play on a very good NC State defense last week. They put up 8.3 YPP two weeks ago on the Boston College defense.

Virginia has a good young quarterback in Colandrea. He is a big play guy either way at this stage in his career. He throws too many picks and a pick six is always a possibility, but he is creating big plays for the Cavs on offense too. Virginia has 6.4 YPP on a good Louisville defense two weeks ago and an impressive 6.3 YPP against Duke last week too.

Virginia has picked up their pace of late. 

These two teams are 114th and 120th in the country in explosiveness allowed. The weather calls for a nice day here. Expect some big plays.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders passing attack has been much better in the last few weeks. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has 12 touchdown passes compared to just 4 interceptions in MTSU's last four games. The offense has picked up their pace significantly too, and it has been working. 

Sam Houston State's offense was dreadul early in the season, but they have been much better in the last five games.

Both teams are snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds which is far quicker than the national average. A total set this low for a game played at this pace is pretty rare unless there are elite defenses.

The MTSU defense is 77th in the nation in YPP allowed and Sam Houston is 99th. MTSU is 11th in the nation in explosiveness on offense.

It's the last game for both and I think the offenses will show up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jayden Daniels has impressed me the most of any player in the country this year. He was very good last year in Brian Kelly's system, but this year he has been elite. LSU is clearly putting up as many stats as possible for Daniels to try to get him the Heisman Trophy. Daniels is one of the two favorites (Bo Nix) for the award. Nix is likely to get more games to play while Daniels will not. This is LSU's last chance to feature Daniels and put up a big number.

The Texas A&M secondary is banged up right now, and LSU should be able to hit some explosive plays on them. Texas A&M has a good defense overall, but Miami put up 48 points on them and Ole Miss scored 38. The LSU offense is the best one they have faced all seaosn.

The LSU defense is one of the worst in the SEC. While we don't know if it will be Henderson or Johnson at quarterback for A&M here, I think they can score enough regardless. LSU has allowed 117 plays of 10 yards or more this year.

LSU will score a lot here. I expect A&M to do enough too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo on Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo are 9th and 10th in the MAC in yards per play on offense. 

Buffalo had high scoring games in the non conference, but in MAC contests they have had a bunch of low scoring games. Buffalo has seen 5 of their 7 games in the MAC finish at 38 total points or lower. Eastern Michigan has had five games finish at 36 points or lower.

These two are the least explosive offenses in the MAC. They rarely get big plays and the defenses should have the edge.

The weather should play a big role here. There is rain in the forecast with sustained winds 17 mph and gusts to 25 mph. That should make the play calling even more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company, but their defense has actually been their stronger unit this year. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Chiefs have played nine games this year, and six of the nine have stayed under this total. Their highest final total has been 51 points. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are just 11th in the NFL in yards per play this year. They haven't been as explosive on offense this year as expected. The Eagles defense should be able to get pressure against a mediocre KC offensive line.

The weather here could play a role. The forecast is calling for winds of 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph during this game. There is also a chance of showers. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals should be a different offense now that Kyler Murray is back. We saw it already last week with Arizona putting up 5.9 YPP and 25 points against a pretty good Atlanta Falcons defense. Murray just gives them far more big play ability than anyone else they had all season. Conner being back is very helpful as well.

C.J. Stroud has been amazing in his rookie season. Stroud has done a remarkable job of hitting a bunch of explosive plays while still not turning the ball over much. He is playing like a top 8 or 10 quarterback already. 

These are both below average defenses. They aren't very good in the secondary, and I think that will be exploited here. 

This is on a fast track in the dome which is helpful.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NC State Wolfpack have gone full out stall mode on offense of late. In their last three games they are the second slowest paced team in the country. NC State is a run heavy offense that doesn't have much explosiveness at all. NC State is 114th in explosiveness in the country.

The VA Tech defense has given up some big plays, but on a down to down basis they have been good. I don't think NC State is the type of team who can break those big gainers. VA Tech's defense is 23rd in the country in havoc. They are 24th in success rate allowed. 

VA Tech's offense has been much better with Kyron Drones at quarterback. They are running about 60% of the time on offense. NC State's defense has been excellent of late. The Wolfpack are 17th defensive line yards and 22nd in rushing play success rate allowed. 

VA Tech ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo in the last three games alone. Two running teams with very slow paced offenses.

NC State's last four games have finished: 24-3, 24-17, 20-6, and 26-6. Four of their last six games have finished with a total of 32 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*This line has moved since I selected it early this week. I would still take this as long as it is at or above the key number of 41. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers had a rare very poor showing on offense last week. Navy slowed that game down and UAB didn't play to their potential on offense. UAB overall for the season though is 25th in success rate on offense and the Blazers have scored 35 points or more four times. On the other side, UAB has allowed 41 points or more six times. UAB's tempo is 19th quickest in the country and that often turns their games into shootouts. 

Temple's offensive stats are skewed because E.J. Warner missed time and the Owls offense could do nothing in his absence. With Warner in the fold, Temple's offense is very good throwing the football. The Owls are 17th in tempo in the country. Temple's defense is 110th in YPP allowed in the country. They are especially terrible against the pass. Jacob Zeno is a good quarterback for UAB and he should have success. Temple has allowed 36 points or more six times this year.

I see a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines didn't throw a single pass in the second half against Penn State. Michigan just edged their way down the field and controlled things with the running game. 

One major reason Michigan running the football so much is important to a total is the Wolverines ranks 132nd (or second slowest) in tempo in the country. They move very methodically. Michigan is 103rd in the country in explosiveness. I have little doubt they'll move the ball well against Maryland, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Maryland is 13th in the country in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays very often.

The Michigan defense is 3rd in the country in success rate allowed. They are second in opposing QBR allowed. Michigan is 19th in YPC allowed, but Maryland is only 93rd in the nation in YPC.

Michigan has Ohio State next week and the Wolverines would be well suited to get a lead and get out of here with a win playing conservatively.

The weather here is a plus too. The blend of four forecasts calls for 16 mph winds with gusts of about 28 mph here. That tends to make teams both more conservative and helps the defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense has really improved a lot of late with Joe Burrow getting healthy and the unit coming into its own. The Bengals are averaging 26.6 points per game in their last five games. The early season poor results from the offense means little at this point.

On the other side though, the Bengals defense is looking far worse than it did a year ago. Cincinnati is now second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Texans offense torched them on Sunday for 544 yards. This defense has been a problem spot this year for Cincinnati. 

Baltimore is averaging 32.2 points per game in their last five games. They have scored 31 points or more in four straight contests. 

The Ravens defense is very good, but Burrow and the Bengals have scored 24, 24, and 27 points on them in the last three head to head meetings. 

The total earlier this year was 45.5 and it finished 27-24. Since then both offenses have improved quite a bit.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved up some since early in the week, but I still rate this 4 star up to 47 and a 3 star play above that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins saw Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore both get banged up in their loss to Arizona last Saturday. Neither of them practiced on Monday. Ethan Garbers wasn't even at the practice and Moore watched practice without his helmet on. That leaves UCLA thin at QB and would make them more predictable on offense.

Trenton Bourguet was injured very early in the Arizona State blowout loss to Utah. Because of other injuries, Arizona State was down to Jacob Conover (4th string QB) and he went 5/22 and was a disaster against Utah last week. Conover might be the man again Saturday. Coach Dillingham said if the game were today Bourguet wouldn't be able to play. 

The UCLA defense has been fantastic all year. Arizona State's defense has been better than expected. After a poor effort last week, I think the Sun Devils defense will at least play better here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The pace will help a lot here. Wash State 31st in tempo this year. Cal is 11th. Lots of pace and plenty of possessions here.

The Cal defense is very bad. There are 123rd at PFF in defensive grade. They are also 130th in passing play success rate allowed. We know Washington St will throw it a bunch. 60% of their plays are a pass. Cam Ward is hot and cold, but I like his chances of having a good game against this secondary. Cal’s Dline 122nd in havoc rate. Wash State OLine poor in pass blocking, but they won’t get dominated here like they are some games.

Cal’s strength on offense is clearly in the running game. Ott is a tremendous runner and they have some depth behind him and a fairly mobile QB. Wash St 100th in rush play success rate allowed. Wash State 11th in Pac 12 in YPC allowed. I think Cal gets the ground game going here.

Washington State has had a couple lower scoring games of late which has kept this number down, but I think this sets up as a track meet type game with the offenses having a bunch of success.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing much different under new offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton than they did under Dan Enos. That's a good thing for the team and for the over. Their offense was terrible and the play calling was bad earlier this year. Arkansas played nearly two seconds per play quicker last week than they did on average the rest of the season. 

Arkansas also has Rocket Sanders back and Coach Pittman said he's healthier coming into this game than he was going into last weekend. Sanders had his best game of the year last week against Florida. He makes this offense much better when he is at least pretty healthy. 

Auburn's running game should have some success against a mediocre Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks just allowed 36 points against Florida. Auburn's passing attack has been slightly better of late to give them some balance.

I think this number makes sense for the season as a whole, but it is too low based on the changes for Arkansas. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather is key in this one. Right now the National Weather service says 85% chance of rain during this one. Sustained winds of about 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. If that comes to fruition that absolutely is enough to make a big impact on the game.

6 of Utah’s 9 games have finished with 41 points or fewer total. Whittingham knows they don’t want a shootout against this Huskies team.

Washington has played a lot of high scoring games this year, but the weather and an opponent with a weak offense and very strong defense is coming up in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have played eight games against FBS opponents. The lowest combined score has been 58 points. They have hit 70 points or higher in four of their eight games. They have only stayed in the 50's once. 

UAB's passing attack is very good with Jacob Zeno back in the fold. Zeno was 29/35 for 484 yards and 5 TD's passing last week. Navy has a passing defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in passing play success rate allowed. 

UAB's defense is atrocious against the run. They are 132nd out of 133 in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 130th in YPC allowed. We know Navy will run the football a lot, and they should have success against this UAB defensive front. 

UAB will push the pace in a big way. Both defenses are weak. This total has moved down to the point I have to fire on an over. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes made a offensive coordinator change late last week. I didn't like the move at all. Sean Lewis is a really good offensive coordinator, but the move was made to Shurmur and Lewis was demoted. Shurmur was brought in likely to run the ball more and play at a slower pace. The Colorado offensive line has been so bad that Shedeur Sanders has gotten banged up badly. He clearly isn't himself right now. 

Colorado played 2.5 seconds per play slower last week than they have for the year overall. The Buffaloes were pass heavy, but they playing from pretty far behind and they were unable to get any offense going at all until very late in the game. 

Arizona's defense is flying under the radar. The Wildcats defense is much better of late. Arizona is  25th in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to get big plays on them. They can get in the backfield often too with their talented linebackers. The Colorado OLine is going to be in trouble here.

Colorado's defense has played somewhat better of late. They have at least slowed down UCLA and Oregon State in the last couple weeks. Arizona's offense is a good one, but they are playing at a pretty slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Temple Owls offensive numbers are skewed. E.J. Warner is everything to this offense and he missed a couple games recently and they were absolutely hapless in those games. Temple is a good offense with Warner on the field though. He came back last week and was great against Navy. Now, Temple goes to take on a weaker defense in USF.

USF is 132nd in the nation in explosive plays allowed. The Bulls are 1st in the nation in tempo though. Their games have been absolutely shootouts. They lost 59-50 last week against Memphis. In USF's last six games, five of them have finished at 70 total points or higher. 

Temple had games finish at 74 and 83 points total before Warner was hurt. Temple is a fast paced team as well. 

There should be a lot of possessions and I like this one to be a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are an over team. Gardner Minshew is a gunslinger. He can move the team up and down the field, but he can also give the other team a pick six with his questionable decision making at times. The Colts defense is bottom five in the NFL. Indianapolis has been playing quicker of late as well.

The Colts last three games have finished 37-20, 39-38, and 38-27. The last two of those were against the Browns and Saints. Both of those teams have suspect offenses and great defenses. If you are able to get very high scoring games against them, I have to look toward the over in your games when they are set this low.

Carolina hasn't been a good offense,  but I think Bryce Young and company can have some success offensively against a weak secondary and a subpar pass rush in Indianapolis. The Panthers have had 3 of their last 5 games get over 60 points total, so they are capable of being in shootouts. 

The weather looks good for this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders have had one strength on defense in the last couple years- they had a good pass rush because of a strong defensive line. They traded away that big strength. Chase Young and Montez Sweat both were traded away this week. Washington has been a bottom five defense in the NFL in yards per play even before these trades, and now they are worse.

The New England Patriots have been slowed by quite a few injuries on the defensive side of the football this year. They are still a decent defense, but they are far from the dominant defense we've seen in past seasons. 

Washington's Sam Howell is willing to take chances and I think he can hit on some deep passes against the Patriots secondary. The Patriots offense should look much better without a pass rush on them.

This total is set very low for a game involving a very weak defense and no weather issues. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia offense is better than people realize. Georgia's Carson Beck is playing good football right now. Even without Brock Bowers, Georgia has solid weapons in the passing game. Georgia put up 486 yards and 7.4 yards per play against Florida last week. The Bulldogs are capable of big things on offense.

Missouri's offense has been much improved this year. The play caller here is doing a good job taking advantage of Missouri having one of the best WR rooms in the country this year. Brady Cook has been excellent and Burden and company are a tough cover for anyone. 

Georgia's defense is clearly very good, but what good offense have they faced this year? This is one of the weakest opposing offenses schedules you could find. Missouri will be the best offense they have seen this year. 

The Missouri defense allowed 21 points to Vandy. They gave up 27 points to Kansas State. LSU put up 8.1 yards per play and 49 points on them. The Tigers defense is worse than they were a year ago.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers won 45-42 over North Texas last weekend. Memphis gained 600 yards of total offense, but they allowed 591 total yards. Both teams averaged better than 8 yards per play. 

Memphis has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. They are solid offensively and are pretty explosive. South Florida has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season as well. What about the defenses? Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. USF is 130th in explosiveness allowed (out of 133 teams).

USF is second in the nation in tempo. The Bulls are absolutely flying on offense. Alex Golesh and this group want to turn every game into a track meet. USF has seen four of their last five games finish with 70 combined points or more. USF has allowed 56 points twice in their last three games. 

Memphis is allowing 5.47 yards per carry in AAC play. USF is 123rd in yards per play allowed on the season.

The pace here will be very quick and I like this one to be high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats are a run heavy offense. They are running the ball on 61% of their offensive plays in Big 12 play. Texas is first in the Big 12 in run defense, and the Longhorns big defensive front should slow down Kansas State much better than the Wildcats recent foes have. 

Kansas State's secondary was weak early in the season, but they have been amazing of late. In their last two games, Kansas State allowed 3 points against TCU and 0 points against Houston. 

Texas is without Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Maalik Murphy wasn't asked to do very much last week against BYU. I think Ewers will be missed especially because of his ability to throw the ball deep. 

Kansas State likely wants to run the ball and play slowly here. Both teams have looked excellent on defense lately. I expect a tight hard fought battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NFL has had a lot of low scoring games this year. The under has been cashing at a really high rate. That usually tends to regress at least somewhat toward the mean after extremes. This game is being played on the fast track in Dallas. Both of these quarterbacks have shown to be very good when in these conditions.

The Rams offense is very good now with two great receivers on the outside. Diggs being out for Dallas definitely hurts them against this kind of passing attack. 

The Cowboys offense underachieved the last couple games before their bye week. They put a lot of time and focus into turning things around this week. I expect a sharper performance from their offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The new clock rules have really made a difference in the higher total games. There is only so much time to score with the clock moving even after first downs. There will certainly still be some very high scoring games, but they have become more rare. 

Totals of 62 points or higher are 34-20 to the under this season.

Colorado has allowed 35 sacks. This Buffaloes offensive line is going to be beaten badly here. PFF rates the UCLA pass rush the e highest of anny in the country. Sanders is going to be under a lot of heat here. Colorado does play quickly but they aren’t always efficient.

The Colorado run defense isn't good, but it has been less bad in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.94 YPC in Pac 12 play.

Only one of UCLA’s games against FBS competition has finished higher than 45 points.

Ethan Garbers is a more conservative quarterback and I think that could lead to less pick sixes and short fields for the opposition which Moore had done all too often.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has been atrocious this year. They have given up 126 plays of 10 yards or more on the season thus far. In the SEC, they are allowing 6.85 yards per play. Vanderbilt gives up big plays in bunches, and Ole Miss is the definition of a big play offense.

Ole Miss has 52 plays of 20 yards or more already this season (3rd best in the country). The Rebels can do it through the air or on the ground. I don't think they'll get to 4th down very often in this game at all. 

Vanderbilt's offense isn't great, but through the air they have some explosiveness. That is a good fit here since Ole Miss has been weakest in the secondary. Ole Miss is 84th in total QBR allowed. They are 90th in pass play success rate allowed.

The two teams are 7th and 14th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. 

These two met last year and Ole Miss won 52-28. Ole Miss had 9.9 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense is worse this year. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are nothing like they were last year. Ohio is excellent defensively this year. They are bottom 10 in the country in tempo. The Bobcats are happy to win low scoring games with strong defense this season. 6 of Ohio’s 8 games have finished with a combined total of 37 points or fewer.

The Miami OH defense has been tremendous especially in MAC play. They are allowing an average of 11.25 points per games in the MAC. Salopek is a star linebacker that leads the way for them.

Miami OH will be without star quarterback Brett Gabbert who had season ending surgery after an injury in the second half of the Toledo game. Aveon Smith is a decent backup, but there is a significant drop off from Gabbert to Smith. Smith is a runner first and he makes the Miami OH offense much more predictable. Gabbert’s big play ability in the passing game is no longer there.

Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. There shouldn't be many big plays here. It's a very low total, but I think it's low for a good reason.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have shown us their game plan pretty clearly at this point. Charlotte wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football and control the time of possession. Charlotte is using 31 seconds between plays in their conference games. The 49ers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in the country. 

Charlotte is 126th in the nation in rushing play success rate, but they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays in the conference. Charlotte's defense is much improved under Biff Poggi who is a defensive minded coach. The 49ers are 32nd in success rate allowed. They are giving up just 4.52 yards per play in conference action so far.

Florida Atlantic has been a big disappointment on offense so far this year. The Owls have been held to 187 points or fewer in four of their seven games. They gained just 2.9 yards per play against a mediocre UTSA defense last week. 

Charlotte has seen 4 of their 7 games (including 3 of their last 4) this year finish with a combined total of 29 points or fewer. This is the type of game Charlotte wants to play with their lack of big playmakers on offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.0. The Detroit Lions defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at just 4.7. Everyone knew the Ravens would have a solid defense and they do, but the Lions defense has improved so much from the past couple years.

Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent this year. The Ravens gained just 5.1 YPP against a mediocre Titans defense last week. The Ravens sit at just 5.2 yards per play on average for the season overall. 

The Detroit offense hasn't had to face many good defenses yet. They put up just 20 against a pretty good Atlanta defense. They scored only 20 on Tampa Bay last weekend.

The weather in this one should be a factor. All of the longer range forecasts are calling for a very windy game here. There are expected to be sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts of around 35 mph. That is enough to really change the game and make things much more conservative.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense is an absolute mess right now. New England couldn't score a point against New Orleans a couple weeks ago, and the offense was still very weak with only 259 total yards of offense against a mediocre Raiders defense last week.

Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Bills struggled badly to score last week against the Giants. The Bills defense has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 10 points or fewer. 

I consider New England a bottom three offense in the the NFL, but the Pats also have a top five or so defense in the NFL.

The weather should be a nice bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of around 18 mph with gusts of 35 mph during this game. That should help cut down on the downfield passing game and make both teams more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were off last weekend. Louisiana has played five FBS opponents this year. The final combined total points scored in those games were: 69, 62, 83. 59, and 64 points. 

Louisiana is 12th in the nation in yards per play. They are balanced team who can beat you through the air or on the ground. 

Georgia State is 41st in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Panthers play quickly (39th in the nation in tempo). Georgia State is 11th in the nation in explosive plays on offense. 

Defensively, Georgia State is 121st in explosiveness allowed. The Panthers allowed 35 points against Rhode Island and 25 points against a really bad Charlotte offense. Even in their win last week, Georgia State gave up 6.7 yards per play against Marshall.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls defense looked terrible in the non-conference slate. They have played better against MAC competition. Obviously the MAC is a weak conference, but this has been a common trend for Buffalo. The defense ends up being above average in MAC play. 

Buffalo has given up just 4.83 yards per play in three MAC games. Kent State's offense is averaging a miserable 3.89 yards per play in the MAC. For the season as  a whole, Kent State is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in yards per play.

Buffalo's offense has very little big play ability. In fact, Buffalo has only five plays of 30 yards or more all season long. Kent State's biggest weakness as a defense has been giving up the big play, but I don't think Buffalo will take advantage of that.

Buffalo is 127th in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

These are two really weak offenses.

The weather forecast here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts above 20 mph and showers during the day on Saturday. This is a long range forecast, and the weather is just a bonus.

Take the under. 

*This line has been moving down some throughout the week. I would still play this as long as it is 42 points or higher. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers offense is extremely reliant on being able to run the ball this year. Joe Milton's efficiency has been very poor in games against good opponents. Tennessee scored just 20 points against Texas A&M. They scored only 16 points against Florida. Alabama will easily be the best defense the Volunteers have faced. Alabama ranks #1 in overall defense grade at PFF.

Alabama held a very good Ole Miss offense to 10 points at home earlier this year. Alabama is very run heavy this year on offense. Jalen Milroe is inconsistent through the air. Alabama has run the ball on 63% of their plays so far this year.

Tennessee's defense is much improved from a couple years ago. The Volunteers are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 7th in defensive line yards. I think they could give the Alabama offensive line a tough time here.

This total looks low when you consider what these two teams did last year, but these teams are very different than a year ago. I think the low total is justified.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints have a top five defense in the NFL. Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive minded coach. The Saints defense is strong on all levels. There is no clear weakness. 

New Orleans is also a very questionable offensive team. The Saints play calling on offense leaves a lot to be desired. They play slowly and don't hit many big plays.

The Jacksonville Jaguars scored 37 points against the Colts so you would think they were great on offense in that one. They were not even good offensively. It was the Colts turnovers that led to the points. In fact, the Jaguars offense put up just 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.

The Jaguars defense now ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in most categories. They held the Colts to 4.8 yards per play. 

Trevor Lawrence is banged up and is getting tests on his knee. He is likely to be less than 100 percent here (assuming he will play). This is a short week.

The Saints have now played 12 straight games that have stayed under this total. Their highest combined total this year is 37 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense has been tremendous all season. New Orleans is also a very cautious offense compared to most in the NFL. They don't take many shots down the field. New Orleans scored 34 points against New England last game, but that is pretty misleading. They averaged just 4.3 YPP. They got a pick six and had multiple short fields due to bad turnovers and the Pats going for it from their own side. 

Houston was beaten right as the clock hit zero by Atlanta 21-19 last game. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic this year. I still think he will find it tougher going in this one than in most games because this Saints secondary is the real deal. The Texans defense is scrappy and they are limiting big plays.

Both teams are coached by defensive minded head coaches. 

The Saints have played a stunning 11 straight games that have finished at a combined 40 points or lower. This year, they have had all 5 of their games finish at 37 points or lower. 

I like this one to stay a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners got their star quarterback Frank Harris back last Saturday. Harris had been badly banged up earlier this year and tried to play through it. He then had to sit out for a period of time. UTSA's offense finally looked like what we expected last weekend. UTSA put up 49 points and 7.3 yards per play in their win over Temple last weekend. 

UTSA's defense has disappointed this year. The secondary in particular lost a lot of talent from a year ago, and the drop off has been significant. Temple put up 542 yards in that 49-34 loss to UTSA last weekend. 

UAB has been throwing the ball a lot. Zeno is a quality quarterback for the Blazers. UAB ranks 19th in success rate on offense. They are throwing the ball on 53.6% of their offensive plays. UAB hasn't had a game against an FBS opponent finish with less than 58 points total this year. Two of their four against FBS opponents finished with 81 and 84 points.

The UAB defense is extremely weak. They are 130th in success rate allowed. They have allowed 35 points or more in every game against an FBS opponent this season.

A fast track here for two offenses ranking in the top 20 in tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under*  Oregon State is 105th in the nation in tempo. 56.5% of their plays on offense are a run. I think they want to establish the run in this one. Oregon State is a good run defense (3.21 ypc) on the year. Oregon State should at least hold its own against the run of UCLA.

UCLA’s Dante Moore is capable of big things, but Chip Kelly doesn’t look like he fully trusts him yet.. He also has an OLine that isn’t pass protecting well. 110th in pass blocking grade.

I knew the UCLA defensive front was good, but I didn’t expect them to shut down a great passing attack like Washington State last week. Washington State had a 19%!!! Success rate on passing downs last week. UCLA is 1st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have a 93.2 PFF overall defense grade. 2nd best in the country. UCLA 6th in explosiveness allowed. An excellent defense so far this year.

UCLA hasn’t played a game against an FBS opponent this year that finished with more than 45 total points. 

I’m on the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons are 133rd in tempo out of 133 teams in the country. They are running the football on 94% of their offensive plays. With the new clock rules, the Air Force games are really going to move quickly. There aren't many possessions in their games. The Falcons have only faced one good run defense (Sam Houston) and that game was 13-3. 

Wyoming has played against some pretty good offenses this year, and I tend to think the Wyoming defense is a little better than their year to date stats look. Craig Bohl's teams have a history of being very good at defending the triple option as well. 

Andrew Peasley isn't a good quarterback. He just had a fantastic game against Fresno State, but I don't expect to see a repeat of that. Air Force is 4th in yards per play allowed this year. The Falcons are a veteran defense that does not give up big plays.

The last three meetings between these two teams were 20-6, 24-14, and 17-14. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be a higher scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast in this one calls for rain throughout the day on Saturday and sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That is significant enough to change the way the game is played. 

Buffalo prefers to throw the football, but they are unlikely to be able to throw it downfield much in this weather. Buffalo is averaging just 3.51 ypc (111th in the country). Bowling Green should be able to cheat up in the box to stop the run more here.

Bowling Green on offense is 118th in success rate so far this year. The Falcons are 99th in success rate in the running game. Buffalo's run defense is 51st in success rate allowed on the ground. PFF grades Buffalo as the 31st ranked run defense in the country. 

With the weather and game plans being changed by it, I'll take the under.