Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-14 | Colorado v. Arizona -17 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
10* Arizona -17 over Colorado COLLEGE CONFERENCE BLOWOUT GOY Write-up Pending BDS... |
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11-08-14 | Kansas State v. TCU -6 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 55 h 44 m | Show | |
110814 5* TCU over Kansas State @ 7:30 Eastern COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK BDS… One issue that is easily solved the Horned Frogs (7-1) actually accrue line value Saturday with the “public” affection for head coach Bill Snyder of Kansas State. After eight games on the schedule this is only the third road outing for the Wildcats (7-1). For TCU they show off a road win non-cover at Morgantown. For this handicapper, it projects added value here as the confidence level for TCU should now be at an all-time high under head coach Gary Patterson. And, they are successful even though they lost senior quarterback Matt Joeckel for the season. QB Trevone Byokin is a super athlete, but was inconsistent last week at WVU. In that game the Horned Frogs scored the last ten points to secure a heart pumping victory. We note, the Mounties sored one of their touches via a fumble recovery. If TCU is to win and cover they will need a perfect game caring for the football. Understand this is a hostile environment for KSU and represents a playoff game on its own. TCU has derived a major edge playing this in Fort Worth. Last week Kanas State easily handled the defense less and turnover prone Oklahoma State unit 48-14 for their 5 straight win. Coach Snyder’s club lives off their defense #16 overall #9 stopping the run. The TCU win last week runs their streak to three after losing at Baylor. Kansas State’s only loss was to Auburn. The Horned Frogs strength is offense with their 500+ yards a game and the #6 ranked passing attack nationally. They are #2 in points scored! Defensively, KSU has an edge possessing the Big-12 best defense, but the Horned Frogs are #1 nationally in turnovers earned with +15. DOUBLE REVENGE…Coach Patterson is 0-2 vs. his former alma mater Kansas State. TCU has covered 6 straight at home and 9-of-10 ATS overall. TCU 7-3 ATS B/4 BB road games. We realize the Wildcats are 20-5-1 ATS vs. winning units, but this is being played at TCU who has the EMOTIONAL EDGE. Remember, this is a PROGRAM GAME for the Horned Frogs who came over from the MWC. Interesting the only loss by TCU this season was to Baylor, but the Bears lost to like kind West Va. in Morgantown 41-27. I believe based on the current facts and circumstances TCU has the edge…39-24. |
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11-08-14 | Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 72 | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Oklahoma/Baylor OVER the total Waited until this morning to insure the weather (55*) would be clear enough not to short circuit both of these powerful offenses. No matter each will have their foot to the metal to simply out score the opposition. Believe the game will be in the 40'S. Good Luck, I will have one more play late this afternoon for night action...Good Luck, and thank you. |
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11-08-14 | Iowa +1 v. Minnesota | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
110814 Play on: 10* Iowa +1 (123) over Minnesota @ 12:00 Eastern Here we have two teams with 6-2 records fighting to achieve a seed in the BIG-10 Championship game. In preseason most experts had the Golden Gophers down the list in the West Division of the conference. However, they come in off a BYE week with a 3-1 SU record in the BIG-10. Before losing a heart breaker to the Illini, Minnesota had won 4 straight. MU is 5-0 SU this season at home. They are actually tied with Iowa in the division. The Hawkeyes show off a 48-7 crusher of the Wildcats of NW after a BYE. Iowa has won the L2 in the Minnesota series in a convincing way 23-7 and 31-13. This season Iowa has really improved on offense as last weeks’ crusher would indicate bullying the Wildcats, and now they average almost 30 points a game coming into action Saturday afternoon. The Hawkeyes have improved over their 2013 edition in scoring defense holding the opposition to 20-points per game, ranked #14 limiting offenses to only 323 yards per game. Minnesota shows listed as the #10 rated offense in the BIG-10 not in the country, clarifying. Their key on offense is senior RB Cobb who has crossed the goal line 7 times carrying 1,000+ yards. On defense, MU is listed as the #40 unit in scoring defense giving up only 22.2 points per game. Yes, these two are very similar, but the value in the game has gone to IOWA from the line standpoint as the visitor opened as a -2 favorite, but the public domain has bought out the price to a “Pick.” We know that Minny does not play well SU & ATS b/4 Ohio State (next). We’re not projecting a look ahead because of the nature of this game. Since Minnesota has not lost at home have the sharps and the public over played the Gophers situation? In the series, Iowa has covered 13-of-19 in Vegas. Iowa has not only covered 8-of-9 on the road, but 6 straight on the road vs. a winning home unit. So, coach Ferentz and company will be prepared to take home the cash in a series Iowa leads of late with a 10-3 SU record. Remember if Iowa becomes the UNDERDOG the line value generates a stronger position for us…Good Luck. |
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11-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State +3 | 35-21 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
110514 4* (108) Ball State+ (3-5) over Northern Illinois (6-2) @ 8:00 Eastern CFB MAC KEY BEST BET BDS Here is a MAC encounter which appears to have two teams in different mind sets. The Huskies are a solid 6-2 with suffering BSU 3-5. The NIU offense stats out 100+ yards a game better than the Cardinals. They show ranked #33 in overall offense, while BSU shows at #101. NIU has the most dynamic all purpose threat on the field in sophomore QB Hare who has over 1,800 yards of offense with 16 touches. He was handed the lead role on offense in late September. LY NIU picked up a 48-24 win over Ball State, but the Cardinals played well for three quarters only to collapse late. Going in BSU had won 7 straight games. The Cardinals have lost 5 straight in the series, so this is a MAJOR REVENGE. Remember NIU is 0-6 ATS in the MAC with BSU 9-3 ATS off a week of rest. BSU coach Pete Lembo is 28-18 coming into action and fields a unit that won 10 games last year, so don't discount the abilities of the Cardinals. |
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11-01-14 | Notre Dame -14 v. Navy | 49-39 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 55 m | Show | |
110114 Play on: 5* Notre Dame (311) over Navy @ 8:00 Eastern COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK BDS Well if the Irish would have won last week over Florida State (27-31) this selection would have no validity. Instead we have Notre Dame coming in off a heart breaking loss going on the road to face up-start Navy. The Middies show off wins over VMI 51-14 and San Jose State 31-14, not elite competition. Prior they had lost three straight vs. Rutgers, Air Force and Western Kentucky, not a Class A unit to be found. They do have classy QB Keenan Reynolds leading the way, but the ND defense has faced better this season. On the other side of the ball, the Irish offense should have a big day passing behind QB Golson throwing to WR Fuller against a Navy secondary that is not of division one quality. Overall their defense is ranked #85 allowing 27.6 points per game. With the game being played at FedEx Field the balance of student body and general fans should have strong east coast support for ND. Techs show ND 5-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. With this being considered a home game for Navy we note the Middies are 0-6 ATS vs. a winning road unit. Plus, the “road” team is 16-3 ATS in the series, while ND has taken 4-of-5 vs. Navy. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -14 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show |
110114 Play on: 10* KANSAS ST. (368) over Oklahoma State CFB REVENGE GOY BDS Kansas State has won 4 straight after losing that home affair against highly ranked Auburn. KSU is now rated #11 when they face arch-rival Oklahoma State on Saturday night. This is a MUST WIN for the Wildcats if they want to secure the Big-12 Conference title. Kansas State is undefeated in conference. Last time KSU handled Texas easily 23-0. At one time Oklahoma State had won 5 straight games, but then faltered badly to West Virginia and TCU. Oklahoma State has won 5-of-7 SU in the series. Statistically in the BIG-12 these two are closely valued with OKS averaging 30.2 points per game, while allowing 28 points per game. KSU is averaging 36.9 points per game, allowing 19.3 points per game. As you can imagine the KSU real strength is on defense as they shutout Texas last week and held one of the nation’s most powerful teams, Auburn, to 14 points. Their key has been stopping the run holding the opposition to under 100 yards a game. The Oklahoma State weaknesses of running the football and pass defense should do them in here. The Wildcats are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS off a Big-12 game vs. a unit off back-to-back SU losses. Whereas, Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in the series with KSU coming in on 4 game ATS winning streak…KANSAS STATE! |
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11-01-14 | Arkansas +11 v. Mississippi State | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show | |
110114 Play on: 5* Arkansas+ over Mississippi State @ 7:15 Eastern SEC GAME OF THE WEEK As our SEC special last week, we cashed Kentucky over MSU (7-0) catching that ½ point cover. We look to do the same on Saturday night when the ‘Hogs visit Starkville. Talent wise the Bulldogs have the most edges, except when Arkansas has the ball on offense in running situations. That huge offensive line should help mitigate the blitzes favored by HC Mullen. You can go back to last season and that 24-17 win in OT by the Bulldogs as the ‘Hogs had chances to win in the 4th quarter, but failed to convert. That’s indicative of the type of resolve Arkansas will come to play with on Saturday night. This current spot authors Arkansas (4-4) in a double revenge situation. No doubt the ‘Hogs have defensive issues, but they had those negatives when they lost to Alabama 14-13. We note Arkansas played ‘Bama off a bye week. Granted the overall situational angle here is complex with ‘Hogs aching for a win in the SEC as they show 0-16 SU, 6-10 ATS in the league. The obvious techs have MSU 10-2 ATS in the series with the home team 5-0 ATS…Granted the ‘Hogs have had issues with the Bulldogs. But, hold on MSU has Alabama and Mississippi on the road to test their quest for an undefeated season. My thoughts here are in a “MOTO” construct, as the Bulldogs fully expect to win based on their series history with only UT Martin up next. Arkansas is 15-6 ATS in the month of November and 7-1 L8 vs. a winning football team. As long as we are catching that ½-point again I’m staying on the ‘Hogs to pull a major surprise. |
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11-01-14 | Auburn +1.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
10* Auburn +1-1/2 or +2 over Ole Miss CFB FALSE FAVORITE SMASH BDS....Please grab this quickly as the line is melting as we write! |
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11-01-14 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State OVER 66 | 0-44 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
4* App.State/Georgia State OVER 66-67 We note there is wind and some snow expected, but without going into abnormal text each lack drive stopping defense which should equate to a very high math count...GL and thank you. BDS |
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11-01-14 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech -7 | 10-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
110114 5* Louisiana Tech -7 (352) over Western Kentucky @ 3:00 Eastern Everyone knows I follow the Louisiana schools closely in all sports. When Skip Holtz took over the coaching job at Louisiana Tech, my interest started to really peak. However, LY they finished 4-8 behind the young mentor, though, have since been breathing fire against the opposition with 5-3 record in 2014. Western Kentucky, as you know, is another unit that we track closely. This season they have helped us cash both ATS and Total tickets, but coming into Saturday they are just 3-4 SU. WK has an inconsistent offensive line, slightly under the talent at LT. But, Looie has played stiffer competition and show with 18 juniors and seniors in starting positions. Both units have strong passing attacks (finesse types), but there is a major difference statistically when the defenses are assessed. LT has the #50 rated defense overall in the NCAA holding the opponents to 25.9 average points per game. Considering their opposition this season allowing only 350 yards per game on average is super. Here is where Western Kentucky loses their shirt…eh..eh jersey’s as they allow 549 yards defensively ranking #115 nationally. Their points deficit averages 41.1 points per game…The line opened around -5, -5 ½ and has now shot up to -7 ½. WK is 1-5 ATS off a SU win and show at 1-3 SU in roadies. LT is 6-2 ATS L8 and 16-7-1 ATS vs. |
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10-30-14 | Troy v. Georgia Southern -25.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Georgia Southern over Troy CFB EARLY MOTO THURSDAY BDS |
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10-25-14 | Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky UNDER 77 | 51-66 | Loss | -106 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
5* Western Kentucky/Old Dominion UNDER 77 KEY COLLEGE TOTAL SATURDAY BDS |
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10-25-14 | Michigan v. Michigan State -17 | 11-35 | Win | 100 | 94 h 6 m | Show | |
3* Michigan State over Michigan CFB EARLY MOTO PLAY I will return later with our MOTO GAME OF THE YEAR! We are 1-0 with our games of the year in college football this season (10* CFB Washington Line Mismatch GOY). |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia -102 v. Oklahoma State | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
4* West Va. over Oklahoma State....MONEY LINE At his (line) price, the more effective way to hit Saturday is with the ML approach. Granted the Mounties are coming off that brutal win over Baylor in Morgantown, and does set up as a letdown spot. Still, if WVU is going to the next level nationally they MUST WIN these key encounters on the road. West Va. has a more balanced offense and special advantages here. Finally, the Cowboys who are talented, simply have not done well against (>.500) winning units on the Strip, going 0-5 ATS as they field Saturday. Good Luck! |
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10-25-14 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +15 | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
5* Kentucky +15 over Miss. State SEC GAME OF THE WEEK BDS |
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10-25-14 | Central Michigan -5.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
10* Central Michigan over Buffalo MAC GAME OF THE MONTH BDS Note, our 10* selections are RED HOT at 6-0! |
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10-25-14 | UAB v. Arkansas -23 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 85 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Arkansas over UAB CFB BOUNCE BACK SPECIAL BDS |
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10-25-14 | North Texas v. Rice -14 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
10* Rice over North Texas CFB MOTO GOY BDS |
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10-24-14 | Oregon -17.5 v. California | 59-41 | Win | 100 | 55 h 60 m | Show | |
5* Oregon over Call PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK BDS |
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10-23-14 | Connecticut v. East Carolina -7500 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
4* East Carolina over UConn CFB KEY MONEY LINE BEST BDS |
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10-18-14 | Georgia State v. South Alabama OVER 55.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
10* South Alabama/Georgia State OVER the total CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH BDS |
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10-18-14 | Missouri v. Florida -5.5 | 42-13 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
10-18-14 | San Jose State -134 v. Wyoming | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
10-18-14 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -8 | 32-29 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 48 m | Show | |
101814 5* Central Michigan (338) over Ball State @ 3:30 Eastern COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK…5-2 Last week we stayed away from the Chips (4-3) since they were playing out Northern Illinois and their vaunted offense. Instead we used Western Michigan on the money line and took home the cash. Here we will use CMU who has an improved offense going against the hard trying unit from Ball State who shows 1-5 SU. Remember we told you the Chips were a team to be aware of considering they are coming a 6-6 season bringing back 19 starters. Ball State started 2014 with only 11 starters. In fact the Cardinals have come down hard since their heroics from last season. They are 0-3 SU on the road, while going 0-2 SU in conference. Ball State when in a road setting is allowing 28 points per game. This weakness we fully expect the Chips to exploit with their improved attack. The series techs do favor the visitor, but CMU is on a 4-0 ATS run against losing teams and 6-1 ATS in conference. In addition, CMU is 37-17-2 ATS off an ATS win…CHIPS 27 BALL STATE 17 |
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10-18-14 | New Mexico +9 v. Air Force | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
4* New Mexico +9 or +9 1/2 over AirForce BDS |
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10-18-14 | Eastern Michigan v. UMass -14 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
10* UMASS -14 over Eastern Michigan EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK BDS |
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10-18-14 | Western Michigan v. Bowling Green -135 | 26-14 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
5* Bowling Green (Money Line Only) over Western Michigan Used the Broncos last week on the money line, but concede BG has the major edge on the stat sheet being at home and looking to extend their MAC undefeated legend. Good Luck, we will have more MONEY LINE chances today. Brad |
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10-18-14 | Virginia +155 v. Duke | 13-20 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
10-18-14 | Purdue +12.5 v. Minnesota | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
10-18-14 | Baylor v. West Virginia +7.5 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10-17-14 | Temple v. Houston OVER 50 | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 43 m | Show | |
5* Temple/Houston OVER the total College Total of the Week BDS... |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
10* OREGON STATE+ 3 or higher over Utah Held this out assuming the late money would come to the Utes, not so! Both clubs 4-1 with Utah having the more effective rushing attack, but the passing game of the Beavers will help PULL THE UPSET or take this to the wire. That's why +3 or 3 1/2 makes our club a TOP PLAY. In addition, both units need the game, so the home field becomes more of a factor Utah was just 9-18 in conference going into this season, so we feel they are over valued! |
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10-11-14 | USC v. Arizona +3 | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 61 h 22 m | Show | |
Play on: 5* Arizona+ 3 (168) over Southern California @ 10:30 COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK (Notre Dame last week) Realize the public domain will be knee jerking to Southern California who is off a SU and ATS loss to Arizona State, while ‘Zona shows off a MAJOR UPSET of Oregon 31-24. I had the displeasure of seeing the Oregon and Arizona game, and realized the public will look to go against Arizona here assuming a letdown. But, we note the Wildcats have an additional day of preparation off their Thursday win (Oregon). The extra rest helps mitigate the depressive syndrome off an emotional effort. Arizona entered the 2014 off an 8-5 record with just 13 starters, figuring to be maybe #3 or #4 in the PAC-12 South. Instead they are 5-0 SU and 2-4 ATS coming in at the top of the South Division. Talented Southern California is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS after being crushed by Arizona State. We told most who would listen that the Trojans were going into a strong technical box vs. ASU, but the Sun Devils not only covered they won SU 38-34 on the final play of the game. If any unit is going to be flat here, it is the Hollywood Trojans. Looking back, on the road USC lost to Boston College, but upset Stanford. In the Cardinal game the Trojans were the underdog. Here they are the favorite? The Trojans do possess a 1.8 point per game advantage in average scoring differentials (defense vs. offense). The Trojans have the more prolific defense, ‘Zona the better offense. Last year USC defeated Arizona 38-31, so we have REVENGE a situation for the surprising ‘Cats. In that 38-31 encounter the Trojans led 28-10 at half and coasted the rest of the way. USC QB Cody Kessler had a huge first-half, so look for Rich Rod to come up with a gimmick defense to shrink the passing angles for the talented junior. USC leads the series 28-8 with a split in their last two games, and possesses a +9 in the turnover column. If Arizona is to win this SU, they will need to score early building a lead, while refraining from the critical TO angle. Being at home is a huge ADVANTAGE, along with revenge with USC showing off a heart breaker last week. Arizona is 7-2 ATS in the series covering the last 3-of-4 at home. Critical: The UNDERDOG is 8-1 ATS in the series…GRAB THE POINTS (+3) EARLY! |
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10-11-14 | Air Force +7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
10* Air Force +7 1/2 or 8 over UTAH STATE Note: Please play this selection as early as possible, because they are generating many tickets Friday evening on the Falcons. CFB LETDOWN THEORY TOP PLAY BDS |
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10-11-14 | Alabama v. Arkansas +9 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
5* Arkansas +9 over Alabama SEC GAME OF THE WEEK With dubious weather conditions expected try and play this early on Saturday morning to insure you have the whole number per the above...Good Luck |
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10-11-14 | Washington +4.5 v. California | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
101114 Play on: 10* Washington (169) over California @ 6:00 CFB LINE MISMATCH OF THE YEAR Wake up public here comes the high flying Golden Bear passing game looking to defeat pesky Washington. Technically, the major issue for California backers is the “loss of value” as they opened -1 sitting at -4 ½ on Friday afternoon. The Bears show 4-1 SU & ATS off an “upset” win over Washington State 60-59. Believe the line assertions have been dedicated by that win. Cal is #1 in scoring within the PAC-12 and 4th in total yardage. Washington comes in off a bye (major edge) 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. The defensive key for the Huskies “D” is slowing QB Goff of California as he hung 5 touches on Washington State with 527 yards to compliment the result. With all the chatter about the Cal offense, we note they have a porous defense ranked ####119 in total defense (40.4 ppg, 464 ypg). Washington has played some close games this year and I gained much respect for them inside the Stanford road game despite the SU loss. The Huskies come in shooting 33.0 points per game, while allowing 24.2 points per on defense. As far as the EMOTIONAL match-up the situation actually favors Washington with additional rest (7-0 ATS vs. PAC-12) and the Bears coming off that heart pumping win. Techs give clear guidance as the Bears are a horrible 4-13 ATS in the PAC-12 combing with a 3-13 ATS record at home. Washington shows 4-1 ATS in the series with a nice support tech inside the series as the UNDERDOG is 4-1 ATS.
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10-11-14 | Michigan State -21 v. Purdue | 45-31 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
4* MICHIGAN STATE -21 (not higher) over Purdue Last week in these pages we plucked out the 'Due as a MAJOR TOP PLAY and they covered giving us a 3-0 SWEEP with our TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE (10-1). We noticed how vulnerable the Illini defense was to the running game (349) which eventually allowed QB Appleby (Purdue) to throw 15-20 lighting up the seams of the Illinois secondary. When you look back at the schedule you can calculate how Western Kentucky (one of the teams we follow closely) ate up the Illinois defense, along with Washington and Texas State (another school we follow closely). On the other hand, Purdue's defense is rated #101 allowing 28 ppg. illustrating how their lack of talent will show against quality opponents. |
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10-11-14 | Oregon v. UCLA +3 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
CFB LATE MONEY MOVE |
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10-11-14 | Western Michigan +105 v. Ball State | 42-38 | Win | 105 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
5* Western Michigan Money Line CFB LATE MONEY MOVE BDS |
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10-11-14 | Arkansas State v. Georgia State UNDER 63 | 52-10 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
5* Georgia State/Arkansas State UNDER 63 CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK BDS |
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10-11-14 | Rice +115 v. Army | 41-21 | Win | 115 | 65 h 48 m | Show | |
4* Rice over Army CFB MONEY LINE WINNER BDS |
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10-04-14 | South Carolina v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
10* Kentucky+ over South Carolina SEC GAME OF THE MONTH |
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10-04-14 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State -14 | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
4* Kansas State over Texas Tech CFB SATURDAY NIGHT LIGHTS BDS |
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10-04-14 | UAB +9.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 42-39 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
100414 Play on: 10* UAB +9 ½ over Western Kentucky @ 7:00 Alabama Birmingham comes in 2-2 SU & ATS, while Western shows with the same mark 2-2 SU & ATS. In their last outing the Blazers were 14+ point favorites over FIU, only to lose SU 34-20. WKU comes in after UPSETTING Navy 36-27 as a 7+ point underdog. Navy gave up 2 turnovers one went for a 40+ yard TD interception by the Hilltoppers late in the 4th quarter. UAB out gained FIU by almost 100 yards, but lost the game because of two interceptions for touches. You can bet here the Blazers will focus on the running attack trying to wear down the athletic Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky is ranked #109 in rushing defense relinquishing 238 yards per game. No doubt UABs defense will be tested against the #4 rated offense, but if they use their ball control tactics they will shorten up the game, while keeping the score down…UAB+ |
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10-04-14 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +8 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
Play on: 4* Northwestern+ (346) over Wisconsin @ 3:30 Last week we took a look at the Wildcats against the Nittany Lions, but backed off unfortunately. Northwestern came up big as 29-6 winners (11-point underdog). It was the first win at Penn State going back to 2004. The back breaker for Penn State was a fourth quarter interception by NW that was returned for a TD. In addition, NW completely shut down the Penn State running attack holding them to 50 yards on the day. One thing is for sure the Wildcats defense will face a much more talented offense from Wisconsin. The 17th rated Badgers stopped USF last week 27-10 after being tied 3-3 at half-time. Wisconsin rushed for 294 yards and possessed the ball for slightly more than a half (31.42 TOP edge) which transferred into 26-8 first down edge. Wisconsin is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, while the Wildcats show 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Badgers returned 10 starters, NW 17 starters. Northwestern has won three straight at home against the more talented Badgers. At this point of the season, our power ratings indicate Wisky being somewhat overrated and Northwestern underrated. For the Wildcats to win they MUST stop RB Gordon or they will not only lose, but fail to cover the number. Still, we do have MASSIVE EDGES technically for NW as the home team in the series is 10-1 ATS, with the Badgers 0-6 ATS at Northwestern. We close with Wisconsin currently on a 1-6 ATS roll in Vegas. Can’t help but, TAKE THE POINTS! |
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10-04-14 | Stanford v. Notre Dame +2 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 20 m | Show | |
5* Notre Dame +2 over Stanford This is a great situation, making sure you have +2, as some places are showing 1-1/2. Note, the line opened actually ND -1, but the sharps in Vegas reversed the number with overnight wagering Sunday through Monday. Recall this is a HUGE GAME for the IRISH! They want to be a MAJOR PLAYER in the recruiting ratings, hanging tough now, this win would serve notice that ND is back! Notre Dame is at home with the better QB, while Stanford shows off a draining win at Washington and now must travel to South Bend...EMOTIONAL EDGE: Notre Dame has covered 4 straight vs. the Pac-12 and 4 straight in the month of October. Plus the Irish are 1-4 SU L5 in the series, so pay backs are on-deck for the Irish. Stanford travels with a 1-4 mark after holding their most recent opponent to 20 or less points, 2-5 vs. a winning team. Finally we know the Cardinal has the documented edge on defense, but the home field and ND offense should take home a close victory..Good Luck. |
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10-04-14 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina +2.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 40 m | Show | |
100414 Play on: 3* (342) North Carolina +2 over Virginia Tech @ 12:30 CFB EARLY CALL We have gone 4-1 ATS this college season with our early calls at Brad Diamond Sports. Here is a home dog in a solid position to grab the cash. UNC has strange records of 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS. Wins have been against FCS Liberty and San Diego State. The losses were a little rough 70-41 vs. ECU and 50-35 last week to Clemson. Virginia Tech who was highly touted this campaign marks the calendar with a 3-2 SU record, 2-3 ATS in Vegas. The wins came against William & Mary, Ohio State and Western Michigan. The Gobblers are 1-3 ATS as a chalk. In the 50-35 loss to East Carolina, the Tar Heels only lost the yardage battle by 50 yards, if they didn’t fall behind 22-7 at the half, they may have had enough energy to make it a closer game. Remember UNC brought back 15 starters from a 7-6 team, and does possess sufficient talent to challenge any team on their schedule. Although I will note the Heels have ND up next at South Bend. Virginia Tech is coming off a home coming win over Western Michigan 35-17 laying 21. The Gobblers had a 9 minute edge in TOP. Plus a 255 yardage advantage. But, recall Va. Tech DID NOT COVER. Last year Tech defeated the Tar Heels 27-17 in Blacksburg. The Gobblers got off to a quick HT lead of 21-7 and then hung on for the victory. Still, Tech had just 48 yards rushing, 1.4 ypc…The Tar Heels had some key opportunities on offense, but came up short. Overall, the game changed on three turnovers by North Carolina. Interesting spread numbers show Tech 0-10-1 ATS vs. a unit w/revenge off a SU loss. And, 3-11 ATS in road games. Further the Gobblers are 8-20 ATS off a SU win and 1-5 ATS in conference. Aspiring UNC has much road to cover against athletic Va. Tech, but the Heels are 10-4 ATS off a SU loss and 17-5 ATS at home against a unit with a losing road mark. In closing, we find UNC 8-0 ATS vs. a conference foe when booked as a HOME DOG after a DD SU loss…UNC! |
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10-04-14 | Florida +3 v. Tennessee | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
5* Florida+ over Tennessee SEC GAME OF THE WEEK |
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10-04-14 | Purdue +9.5 v. Illinois | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
10* PURDUE+ over Illini BIG-10 SU UNDERDOG WINNER BDS |
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10-03-14 | Utah State +21.5 v. BYU | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
4* UTAH STATE+ 2-1/2 over BYU |
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10-02-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -23.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Oregon over Arizona CFB SMASH MOUTH WINNER BDS |
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10-02-14 | Florida Atlantic -6 v. Florida International | 10-38 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
3* FAU First off the line value is the reason for the play along with the FAU road ATS successes. In addition, we have FIU playing a light schedule this year, but they upset UAB last time catching doubles. Obviously, the reason for -9 1/2 opener. FAU has played a stronger schedule and has been really challenged on both sides of the ball. I am keeping this at a 3* simply because of the site...Good Luck! |
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09-27-14 | Texas State +3 v. Tulsa | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Texas State +3 or higher...over Tulsa TSU a very under valued unit should win this SU as they play into 33-9 tech system..Good Luck P.S. Buy early! |
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09-27-14 | Troy v. UL-Monroe -14 | 20-22 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 7 m | Show | |
092714 Play on: 4* UL-Monroe (194) over Troy @ 7:00 E CFB KEY BEST BET We cashed another 10* last week going against a team from Loooisiana as the Bulldogs beat LSU 34-29. Here we are backing a smaller school (ULM) with the more effective offense 15 starters returning from a 6-6 season. Troy BB 12 starters from a 6-6 team, but has 56 letters starting the season. UL-Monroe goes into action Saturday 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS with wins over Wake Forest and Idaho. Troy shows 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS being mauled by Georgia 66-0 last time. Their three loses had a net advantage of 121 points! On offense ULM averages 18.3 points per game, while Troy comes in at 15.5 ppg. Total defensive edge goes to ULM who has held the opposition to 24 ppg. with Troy coming in 48+ points. However, we note Troy has played a tougher schedule vs. UAB, Duke and Georgia. Still they rank #123 allowing almost 500 yards a game which really kills them when not in possession of the football. The Warhawks have won three straight with a net 56 point edge all as UNDERDOGS. There is a slight ATS psychological edge for Troy as they are the underdog this time around. Troy is 3-7-2 ATS in conference. With the favorite in the series changing to ULM, I’ll make this a 4* unit play. Remember the week of rest for ULM is huge! If the line drops look harder at ULM! |
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09-27-14 | Rice v. Southern Miss +8.5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
092714 Play on: 10* Southern Miss +8 ½ over Rice @ 7:00 This game took at -10 earlier in the week, but the sharps bought back to +8 ½ as I write overnight. Remember Southern Miss is a program that validated their work in 2011 with a 12-2 SU finish with 49-28 win over Houston in the CSA Championship game as +13 underdog. SM comes in this season off a 1-23 run SU, but they started 8 true frosh last year. SM is 2-2 SU this season with wins over Alcon State and Appalachian State. The Golden Eagles were also blown out by Alabama (12-52) and Mississippi State (0-49). The greater the competition, the more difficult the task for a program looking to regain status in the south. Key this season will be the improvement of the offense by OC Lindsey who came from Auburn. The Golden Eagles are averaging 14.8 ppg., but two SEC games killed their production. As most know there has been a change-over in the program since Todd Monken took the helm as the head coach. Rice after winning the C-USA last season with a 10-4 record; has not won a game this year at 0-3 SU. They have lost to quality opponents Notre Dame and Texas A&M, but lost to over valued ODU last week. Friday night ODU was destroyed by MTS 41-28. A technical note, Rice is 1-7 ATS after allowing 35+ in their last game. The Owls return 12 starters from that team, and lead the SM series 3-1 SU. The Rice offense is balanced, but their running game (4.5) is where SM defense needs to focus. The weakness for Rice is their defense that allowed 43.7 ppg, and just as important a 528 yards per game deficit. Clearly, this is where, I believe that weakness will allow the SM offense to come alive against the weak Rice defense. Critical this week will be the play of QB Nick Mullens, who started to play at SM as a true frosh last year. He threw two INT’S last week vs. APst in the 21-20 win over the now FBS school. Actually, Mullens was directly responsible for the win, though, as he accrued 268 yards through the air. So, if the Golden Eagles fall behind Saturday they have the ability to at least buy-in for the back door cover. Any help out of the so-so running game will add to the probability of this call. We note Rice is not Alabama or Mississippi State. Both of SM wins were at home this season. In closing, HC David Bailiff (8th season) will need to generate a fire under the Golden Eagles for a SU win here, but the points are the definitive value considering SM is 8-2-1 ATS off a SU win…Good Luck |
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09-27-14 | Stanford v. Washington +7.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
5* Washington +7 1/2 over Stanford PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK BDS |
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09-27-14 | Temple -4.5 v. Connecticut | 36-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 5 m | Show | |
092714 Play on: 3* Temple -4 ½ over UConn CFB EARLY CALL BDS The Huskies come in 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after falling at South Florida both SU & ATS last Thursday. SF had a 35 play advantage on offense, while UCONN was 0-9 in third down situations. After the Temple game the Huskies have a week off before they travel to Tulane. The Philly Owls show at 2-1 SU and ATS after smashing FCS Delaware State 59-0. Their only loss was to Navy in Philadelphia 31-24. There are two major factors which led me to Temple, the early public domain moving on UConn (-6-to-4-1/2) who has lost their starting quarterback Cochran. Plus, in the UCONN 28-21 win over Temple in 2013 the Owls blew a 21-0 lead with the key play a P. J. Walker (Temple) interception for a TD by the Huskies. So, our 2nd key angle is MAJOR REVENGE for Temple. By the way, TU also has an open date on the agenda. We know the UNDERDOG has been the play in the series, but the Cochran injury has us looking to reverse that trend. |
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09-27-14 | Arkansas +9 v. Texas A&M | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
4* Arkansas+ over A&M We've used the 'Hogs often this season and we noticed the public has finally caught up. In fact, if you were to acquire +10 here you meet the criteria for a TOP PLAY under out system. But, since reality has set in nationally knowing how good the 'Hogs are becoming we'll use them as a strong play, instead of the obvious. |
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09-27-14 | Wake Forest v. Louisville -21 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
10* Louisville -21, not higher....over Wake Forest ACC GAME OF THE MONTH BDS Buy quickly the line is moving up! |
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09-27-14 | Maryland +4.5 v. Indiana | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 73 h 33 m | Show | |
092714 Play on: 4* Maryland+ (117) over Indiana @ 1:30 E Last week we picked up a solid 5* winner on Maryland over Syracuse the EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK. Realize this time around the venue is quite different as Indiana is coming off a SU underdog win at Missouri 31-27. Thought we’d at least see 6-6-1/2 type line (-4-1/2) with the TERPS win. Still our openers show the lines makers have extracted value from Maryland as they realize their dual attack can cause serious problems for Indiana who is in a natural letdown situation. Interesting both units are 0-6 ATS off a SU win, but Maryland is 5-2 ATS in September. Feel with the Indiana running game controlling the clock, somewhat, the game will come down to the wire as Maryland is a tenacious football team. |
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09-26-14 | Middle Tennessee State v. Old Dominion OVER 69 | 41-28 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
092614 Brad Diamond Sports 5* College Total of the Week Play on: 5* (109) Middle Tennessee State/Old Dominion University OVER 69@ 8:00 This is our key TOTAL MOVE in CFB this week…No doubt ODU is having a great season 3-1 and 2-2 ATS. The wins were over FCS Hampton, Eastern Michigan and CUSA Rice 45-42 last week as a 6-1/2 point underdog. Middle Tennessee shows at 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS. Last week they came off a TRIPLE OT win over Western Kentucky then falling at Memphis 36-17 as the Tigers were in TRIPLE REVENGE. Remember Memphis brought 17 starters from last year, an experienced team for sure. Believe you will see the MTS running game have more success than their under 100 rushing last week. Overall this should be a balanced offensive game in the 40’s. We note MTS is ranked #28 nationally on offense (1,830) with a solid 33.8 marker to up lift their program. Surprising ODU is not only having a winning season, but they have averaged 34.3 points per game (1,870). It’s amazing both clubs are short of the 2,000 yard mark in total offense. Techs show MTS 4-0 OVER on turf, while ODU comes to the playing field 4-0 OVER off a SU win…HIGH! |
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09-20-14 | California +8 v. Arizona | Top | 45-49 | Win | 100 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
10* California over Arizona CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH BDS |
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09-20-14 | UNLV v. Houston -21 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 78 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Houston over UNLV The Rebels have no defense, while Cougars can score on anyone with their passing game. Home standing Houston shows 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS with their only win a 47-0 route over FCS Grambling State. Their two losses were to UTSA 7-27 and BYU 25-33. The Rebels show off a 1-2 start with losses to Arizona 13-58, and NIU 34-48. They did defeat FCS Northern Colorado 13-12 laying 28. Obviously Vegas has UNLV rated too high in their power charts in the early going. Techs indicate a clear picture as Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS in the first of BB home games vs. a unit off a SU loss. Visiting UNLV is a PERFECT 0-8 ATS as an UNDERDOG off a DD SU loss. Good Luck. |
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09-20-14 | Northern Illinois v. Arkansas OVER 65 | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
5* Arkansas/Northern Illinois OVER the total NCAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK BDS Our first TOTAL of the Week is loaded with the 'Hogs running attack taking out NIU. However, underestimate the NIU offense that will catch the Arkansas defense a little flat after the Texas Tech. We pretty much see this closer than the posted number, but a HIGH SCORING GAME. GO OVER THE TOTAL. |
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09-20-14 | Mississippi State +10 v. LSU | Top | 34-29 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
092014 Play on: 10* Mississippi State +10 over LSU @ 7:00 Eastern CFB LINE VALUE TOP PLAY LSU takes the field on Saturday night against the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. It will be the SEC home opener for the Tigers, by the way LSU is 1-10-1 ATS in conference home openers. Still, the Tigers should prevail in a very close game. LSU won 59-26 in 2013 after State had LSU down late. The Tigers have lost the majority of the offense that generated 563 yards against MSU LY, including Metz, Beckham, Landry, Hill etc. They have young people at skill positions, especially QB Jennings and the wide out group. LSU does have a solid backfield with Hilliard, Magee and Fournette. Defensively, the Tigers brought back 7 starters, but the overall group has suffered injuries early (DL). In the preseason I projected MSU as one of the most improved teams in the nation. The Bulldogs are experienced and are laden with seniors. More important, this is a huge game for HC Dan Mullen who will love nothing better than break the long losing streak to LSU, 1991 was the last win in Baton Rouge. Key for MSU will be the effectiveness of QB Dak Prescott who’s greatest asset is mobility. Prescott is an experienced junior who has had a taste of DC Chavis’ defensive approach. The Bulldogs have a balanced enough attack to cause problems. Remember Prescott was recruited late by LSU, in the end went to Starkville. In 2014 MSU is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. so-so competition. MSU does show strong in the second of BB road games hitting 8-of-10 ATS. TAKE THE POINTS! |
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09-20-14 | Indiana v. Missouri OVER 70.5 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
092014 Play on: 10* Missouri (308)/Indiana OVER the total@ 12:00 Eastern COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH Indiana is 1-1 thus far with a 28-0 win over FCS Indiana State, and then losing to Bowling Green (?) 45-42 as a 7-1/2 point favorite. The Hoosiers defense is weak allowing 741 yards total and 535 through the air. The Tigers will destroy their secondary with their passing game! Missouri defense has given up 1,074 yards on defense, over 700 through the air waves. The Tigers are 3-0, 2-1 ATS vs. (who?) South Dakota State, Toledo and UCF scoring a combined 123 points overall (41.7). Missouri averages almost 200 yards per game rushing, move over Arkansas. This is the second of BB home games for the Tigers. Second of BB road games for the Hoosiers, and they are coming off a loss. Believe you will see a high scoring game with Indiana surprising early keeping it close throughout, trading points, if you will…GO OVER! |
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09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14 | 33-41 | Loss | -100 | 89 h 43 m | Show | |
Play on: 3* BYU -14 or less (368) over Virginia @ 3:30 Eastern This is a play against situation for Saturday. Don’t lay more than 14. As we stated earlier this season the Cavs coming off a 2-10 season could only look up. Well HC Mike London (20-32) has done a great job as we forecasted 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. However, the Cavaliers played another heart pumping affair last week winning SU at home as an underdog versus Louisville. So, that’s 2-of-3 games of excessive emotion in their first three outings. It appears going out on road visiting BYU in Provo where the air is thin could present a natural letdown situation for the Cavs. Virginia is 1-5 ATS off a SU win as an underdog. Home standing Cougars are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after defeating Houston last Thursday 33-25. In the Houston game the Cougars of BYU went out to a 23-0 lead then seemed to go flat allowing the visitor back in the game. QB Hill of BYU is now the leader nationally with 7 touchdowns. Clearly, BYU has the EMOTIONAL edge here after losing last season 19-16 at Virginia to start the season. Plus they have extra time to prepare with their Thursday encounter against Houston the last encounter. Remember BYU finished 8-5 SU in 2013 and brings back 14 starters with 45 lettermen. BYU ROLLS! |
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09-20-14 | Maryland +1 v. Syracuse | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 34 m | Show | |
5* Maryland over Syracuse CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK We had projected the Terps on the improve, despite their difficult loss last week. In fact, we have them showing at +3 from the power rating standpoint vs. Syracuse. Recall Maryland has lost 5 straight in the series, and literally gave away the game LY in a 20-3 Orange win. The Terps have 17 starters returning and look to surprise the public this week. REVENGE! |
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09-20-14 | Iowa +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
10* Iowa+ over Pittsburgh CFB LATE MONEY MOVE BDS Check back later for any LMMs over 4:00 Eastern...Good Luck! |
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09-13-14 | Western Kentucky +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | 47-50 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 27 m | Show | |
091314 4* Western Kentucky+ 1-1/2 or 2 (147) over Middle Tennessee State @ 2:00 Eastern Western is coming off a 42-34 loss to Big-10 entity Illinois after defeating Bowling Green 59-31 in their home opener. The Hilltoppers brought back 12 starters from a team that went 8-4 SU. Plus they have outstanding depth with 46 letters. Middle Tennessee showed well last week despite losing 35-24 to Minnesota as a 16+ point underdog on the road. The Blue Raiders seized the day in week #1 crushing Savannah State 61-7 in their home opener laying 40. MTS brought back 13 starters from an 8-5 team and solid depth with 49 letters hitting the sideline. The Illini returned 8 defensive starters from a unit holding opponents to 21.8 points per game. In contrast Minnesota brings back 7 defensive starters to a unit that allowed almost 36-points per game. When looking at the defensive power rankings, WKU has a slight advantage defensively. Last week in the Illini game the number opened at -7, but was brought down as low as -3 ½…We made Illinois a 10* Line Value special here. In the first two-three weeks of the season, overreactions to technical stats are common with the public. WKU had covered 10 straight as a single digit underdog…Therefore, the overreaction. The Hilltoppers are now 11-1 ATS getting single digits, plus they have a very bright new coach in Jeff Brohm who specializes in offense as he once was the starting quarterback at Louisville. After spending time as an assistant with the Chargers, then putting in two years as an Illini assistant, he is ready to upgrade WKU. The home team is just 1-6 SU in the series. With the opening line accruing some juice for WKU, I am on the Hilltoppers! |
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09-13-14 | Mississippi State v. South Alabama +13.5 | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
5* South Alabama (158) over Mississippi State @ 4:00 Eastern (ESPN) SEC GAME OF THE WEEK HC Mullen (36-28) of MSU has the troops rolling after two encounters vs. Southern Mississippi (49-0) and UAB (47-34) covering vs. SM and falling short against the Blazers. MSU is coming off a 7-6 season with 16 starters back. They are my preseason choice to excel above their recent past. Home standing SA comes off a 6-6 campaign with 15 starters back. SA defeated Kent State on the road last week 23-13, but the Golden Flashes are a so-so unit as we have estimated another 4-8 season for the kids from Ohio. South Alabama relies much on their running game averaging 4+ yards per carry. I believe you will see the kids from Alabama become more offensive via the passing game. Remember SA lost to Mississippi State in 2012 by the score of 30-10, so we have a REVENGE scenario. Also, MSU has LSU up next in Baton Rouge, but don’t expect a complete letdown considering the Bulldogs gave up 34 last week to the Blazers. The question is out on how much has the Bulldogs defense improved? Based on last weeks’ experience, believe there are still some questions giving rise to the spread. SA is 4-0 ATS in September, while MSU 5-11 ATS in road games. Before LSU the Bulldogs are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. Mississippi State 27 South Alabama 17 |
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09-13-14 | Arkansas +1 v. Texas Tech | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
10* Arkansas +1 over Texas Tech ROAD WARRIOR OF THE MONTH BDS NO COMMENT |
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09-13-14 | Wyoming +43.5 v. Oregon | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 92 h 45 m | Show | |
Play on: 3* Wyoming (143) +43 1/2 or +44 over Oregon @ 2:00 Eastern We did our best staying away from the national games last week. However, I came within a few seconds of pulling the trigger on Oregon. Statistically in that game MSU and the Ducks were almost even in total yardage? No doubt the Spartans defense tired down the stretch. In the third of a three game home stand the Ducks face Wyoming. Wyoming brings back 16 starters and 45 letters. They finished with a 5-7 record in 2013. To start the season the Cowboys are 2-0 SU with key wins over Montana (17-12) and Air Force (17-13). Oregon shows with 108-40 net point advantage vs. South Dakota State and Michigan State. No matter, this is a key letdown spot for the Ducks after all the hype around the Michigan State game. Next week Oregon opens their PAC-12 schedule with Washington State followed by 6 more conference games. So, if there is going to be somewhat of respite, Saturday is our call. Granted in order to beat a team on Oregon’s level you will need to control the tempo with a solid running attack. Wyoming has no such strength, but they did accumulate almost 300 yards passing against the Falcons. The Pokes should be able to strike for two scores with a BIG LETDOWN coming from Oregon….TAKE THE POINTS! |
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09-13-14 | Louisville v. Virginia +7 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
10* Virginia +7 (Must Have) over Louisville This is our line value special with an early start on Saturday. Remember my Illni call last week? Here is a reverse scenario as the line adjustment is coming on our side with the CAVS. In order to maintain a true math advantage, play this ASAP. Virginia matches up in dead-even in our power ratings, so we have great situation overall...Plus WR Parker is out for Looie...TAKE THE POINTS! WE ARE 11-0 IN MLB TOTALS GOING INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE GOY TYPE ANGLE GOING IN AN AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME...14-2 RUN! |
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09-12-14 | Toledo v. Cincinnati -9.5 | 34-58 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
3* Cincinnati -9 1/2 or less over Toledo CFB LINE TRAP BDS NO COMMENT |
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09-11-14 | Louisiana Tech +4 v. North Texas | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
Play on: 3* (103) Louisiana Tech+ 4 over North Texas @ 8:00 Eastern Tech was our early choice last week, but we pulled back after the 2-1/2 point line movement Sunday through Monday. Eventually, the game closed at UL-L -15-1/2 or -16. The Bulldogs went on to an easy 48-20 underdog win at Louisiana. LT is now 2-0 ATS on the season, including the loss at Oklahoma (16-48) getting 35-1/2 points. North Texas comes Thursday night off an opening 38-7 loss at Texas and a huge bounce-back blowout win over SMU 43-6. Knowing the Louisiana Tech program fairly well, I can tell you in knee-jerk fashion that the Bulldogs should win this game SU. My only reservation is the spot, Tech is playing their third straight road game. The game opened NT -6 on Sunday night, now the number is at -4, maybe -4 ½. Last year NTU (-3) defeated LT 28-13 in Ruston, so this is a REVENGE game for the visitor. The Mean Green were 9-4 LY winning in bowl action against UNLV 36-14.However, NTU should have some trouble in key games with just 9 returning starters, no less none on the DL. This works in LTs favor with their strong running attack controlling tempo. Both units have FCS opponents next, so no look ahead. Tech is 5-0 ATS off a SU underdog win and 16-6 ATS in road tilts. Finally, the Mean Green strong at home covering 8-of-9. However, as stated Louisiana Tech is our choice to win the whole game. |
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09-06-14 | Fresno State v. Utah -12.5 | Top | 27-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
090614 Play on: 10* Utah over Fresno State CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH Hard to believe FSU who let out 700+ yards against Southern Cal, while succumbing to a 52-13 loss, can even restructuring Utah. The major missing piece from last year is the starting QB for the Houston Texans, Derek Carr who threw 50 touches last year for the Bulldogs. Noticing that once the Fresno defense moved up in class (USC) they were destroyed early and often failing 35-6 at half-time. Now they must suck it up and go back on the road vs. another PAC-12 team the Utah Utes. Remember Fresno brought back only 5 starters on offense. Utah is a much different story. They crushed an FCS unit Idaho State 56-14. That does grant them exempt status vs. Fresno State, they will need to excel in all aspects of their game to win and cover. Utah brings back 12 starters and 53 letters, so they do have depth. Last season, despite their 5-7 mark played well against some of the conference elite, upsetting Stanford, losing by one to ASU and by seven to UCLA. Also, they won SU at 8-5 BYU. My reasoning is the Utes have played at a higher level against elite teams than Fresno faces on an annual basis. Kyle Willingham is a great coach and should have his troops prepared well. Techs show the Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS vs. the PAC-12. Utah is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 4-0 ATS at home in this series. We close with FSU 14-37-2 ATS off a SU loss. Playing B2B games on the road vs. Southern Cal and now Utah is a killer for any football team. |
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09-06-14 | New Mexico State -1 v. Georgia State | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 48 h 57 m | Show | |
090614 Play on: 4* New Mexico State+ (331) over Georgia State @ 2:00 Eastern GSU is coming off a 0-12 season with just 8 RS hitting the field. Last week they won a thriller over Abilene Christian 38-37 an FCS school. AC had a 9 minute TOP advantage and still loss. Two 4th down conversions helped GSU, along with their return units garnering field position. But, trying to leap frog into FBS status can be a tricky transition. LV opened GSU -3 vs. NMS, the game is down to -1, and rightly so. Remember, the Aggies were forecasted to have an upgrade last year with Doug Martin taking over the controls as head coach. Unfortunately, they still faltered with a 2-10 record, 3-21 L2 years overall. Last week they did cash with 28-10 win over Cal Poly, nothing to brag about, but a win in which they controlled the line of scrimmage with their running attack. The visiting Aggies have 13 RS, 8 on offense. The biggest asset NMS has going this season is their move to the Sun Belt Conference. They play only one monster in 2014, and that’s LSU. Last year they played a rough schedule vs. Texas, Minnesota, UCLA, San Diego State and Boston College. Clearly, GSU is a major drop-off in game tension, so we should secure a solid win here on Saturday…Good Luck! |
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09-06-14 | South Alabama -2 v. Kent State | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
4* South Alabama over Kent State COLLEGE LINE VALUE BEST BET BDS |
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09-06-14 | Western Kentucky v. Illinois -4 | Top | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
10* Illinois -4 or less over Western Kentucky CFB LINE VALUE GAME OF THE WEEK BDS Write-up Delayed. |
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09-05-14 | Washington State v. Nevada +4 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
090514 Play on: 3* Nevada+ over Washington State Just like UTSA last night Nevada is part of a highly successful "returning starter" system that has been prevalent over the last 20+ years. Overall, the game should go to the wire with the spread favoring the WOLFPACK who have 17 returning starters. |
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09-05-14 | Washington State v. Nevada OVER 68 | 13-24 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
NO COMMENT LATE MONEY MOVE |
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09-05-14 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College +4.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
090514 10* (304) Boston College+ over Pittsburgh @ 7:00 Eastern Eastern Edge Game of the Month Both schools are coming off initial successes Boston College defeated UMass 30-7, while Pittsburgh thrashed Delaware 62-0. Pittsburgh leads the series 16-13, winners of three straight. This series has been closely contested with 8 games showing a net difference of four points or less. The schools last played in 2004. Key loss from last years team for BC is RB Williams who was one of the most productive backs in the country and a Heisman hopeful…Against UMass it appeared the BC running game did not lose a beat, however, with the Murphy, Rouse and Willis tandem productive outbursts. In the Pittsburgh 62-0 win last week RB Conner mauled the Blue Hens for four touchdowns. Still, the Panthers did lose key WR Boyd with a hand injury. So, once again look for Pitt to go to the running game for their overall offensive needs. They show 1-5 SU at BC and 5-13 SU in road starts. Technically, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS off a SU win and 0-10 ATS against the ACC. Whereas, the younger BC unit has solid numbers covering 5-of-6 at home, and 4-0 ATS at home versus a school with a winning road mark. Realize BC last lost their last two FBS home openers to Miami Fla. (2011) and Northwestern (2012), but this is a bigger game for the Eagles who are looking for RESPECT in their new haunt, the ACC. |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +5.5 | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
LSU opens in Reliant Stadium on August 30th against talented Wisconsin. The Badgers second year coach Gary Anderson completed a solid 2013 with an impressive 9-4 mark. However, the Badgers did finish on a sour note losing to South Carolina 34-24 in the Capital One Bowl. This season Wisconsin brings back 9 starters, but none on the defensive line. Overall the Badgers finished statistically #7 on defense in 2013 and solid replacements and aggressive "D." The Tigers will have QB Jennings in the saddle first in the battle with QB Brandon Harris for the overall job. Figured pretty much from Miles who believes in the UC status. The Tigers solid OL and RB corpse can play with most teams in the country, but the WR unit has been depleted with key recruit Malachi Dupree not making the trip. On defense, the unit was hurt with super CB Rashard Robinson's suspension. DC "Chief" Chavis is a class act and now has more experienced LB's to work with this season. As we mentioned the DL is an issue and a "new" unit, so we imagine the Badgers will do some damage with a more athletic quarterback. In such a toss-up game, feel the POINTS are the VALUE. |
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08-30-14 | Arkansas +18.5 v. Auburn | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Play on: 10 DIME ARKANSAS over Auburn SEC MASSIVE CRUSHER BDS NO COMMENT |
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08-30-14 | Alabama -26.5 v. West Virginia | 33-23 | Loss | -110 | 718 h 14 m | Show | |
083014 5* Alabama (177) over West Virginia @ 3:30 Eastern CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK Our opening play in college football goes on the road to Morgantown West Virginia as the Crimson Tide take on the Mounties. West Virginia brings back 13 starters to the key 22. Alabama has 12 starters back, but are loaded on both sides of the ball. They finished the season 0-2 SU with losses to Auburn and Oklahoma. Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? West Va. finished 4-8 SU last season, losing their last three games to Texas, Kansas and Iowa State. Granted the Mounties have more experience this year, but QB Clint Trickett is coming off shoulder problems. Defensively, they have just one talented starter coming back on the “D” line. Saturday the Crimson Tide plays with Nick Saban being considered the most talented coach in College Football. Alabama is 46-7 SU in his last L4 seasons, but the Tide is coming off a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, a game in which the chalk gave away 4 turnovers. Former Alabama QB AJ McCarron committed two turnovers helping OU to 14 points. Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? Against the spread there are some conflicting numbers as we show Alabama 8-0 ATS -28 or less in non-conference (note the aforementioned line reference), but 0-5 ATS off B2B SU losses. Also, we show ‘Bama 7-0 ATS in the first lined game of the year. Finally, teams losing their bowl games SU when laying 7 or more are hitting 60% ATS in game #1. WVU is killing their backers going 8-15 ATS L2 years and 3-13 ATS at home against a unit off a double-digit SU defeat….ALABAMA! |
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08-30-14 | Boston College v. UMass UNDER 47.5 | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
5* BC/UMass UNDER 47 1/2 CFB BEST BET TOTAL NO COMMENT |
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08-30-14 | UCLA v. Virginia +20 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
10* Virginia+ over UCLA LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH BDS |
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08-28-14 | Wake Forest v. UL-Monroe UNDER 45.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 98 h 44 m | Show | |
082814 135/136 Play on: 4* Wake Forest/UL-Monroe UNDER the total...With the advent of the College Football season we’ll get right to the very best total on Thursday night. In the series these two put together a thrilling game last year with ULM winning 21-19 in Winston-Salem. Wake’s inability to run the football (15 yards) killed their momentum on offense. The total went under 49 costing the public domain a fistful. ULM brings back 15 starters (36 letters), Wake Forest returns just 10 starters, but have 54 letters hitting the playing field. ULM went UNDER 7/11, whereas the Demon Deacons went low 7/10 in 2013. The total here opened 46 ½ off-shore and is now resting on Sunday night around 45 ½. Wake Forest lost too much on offense to expect a strong showing down the field. This is to be expected with first year HC Dave Clawson installing a new approach to football, no less with an inexperienced club. The Warhawks have improved in the talent category, but bring back just 6 kids on offense. The combined units suffered last season in key red zone situations scoring 21 or less in 16 games. Wake scored 46 or less 9 times. Overall they have gone UNDER 8/10 on the road. UNDER! |
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08-27-14 | Abilene Christian v. Georgia State UNDER 60.5 | 37-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
3* GEORGIA STATE/AB UNDER 60 1/2 (Georgia Dome) CFB TOTAL BDS...No Comment |
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09-06-13 | Central Florida -2000 v. Florida International | Top | 38-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10* Central Florida ML
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09-05-13 | Florida Atlantic v. East Carolina -1200 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
EAST CAROLINA
MONEY LINE CFB |
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09-02-13 | Florida State -400 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
FLORIDA STATE
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09-01-13 | Ohio v. Louisville -1300 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Louisville
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