|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-01-23||Oregon -9.5 v. Washington||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||28 h 38 m||Show|
Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Oregon -9.5
This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game.
Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year.
|11-26-23||Ravens v. Chargers +3||Top||20-10||Loss||-100||27 h 16 m||Show|
Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Chargers +3.0
The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win.
The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss.
Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play.
|11-25-23||Ohio State v. Michigan -3||Top||24-30||Win||100||17 h 6 m||Show|
Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Michigan -3.0
Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points.
|11-24-23||Nuggets v. Rockets +3||Top||86-105||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET
Play On: Rockets +3.0
The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests.
Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points.
|11-19-23||Vikings +3 v. Broncos||Top||20-21||Win||100||28 h 21 m||Show|
Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Vikings +3.0
The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points.
|11-18-23||Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas||Top||31-27||Loss||-110||24 h 38 m||Show|
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Kansas State -9.5
So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points.
|11-12-23||Commanders +6 v. Seahawks||Top||26-29||Win||100||25 h 21 m||Show|
Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Commanders +6.0
Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week.
|11-11-23||Oklahoma State v. Central Florida +2.5||Top||3-45||Win||100||16 h 10 m||Show|
Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET
Play On: UCF +2.5
Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is.
College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points.
|11-05-23||Bills +2.5 v. Bengals||Top||18-24||Loss||-110||26 h 35 m||Show|
Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET
Game# 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo +2.5
A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week.
|11-04-23||Penn State v. Maryland +9||Top||51-15||Loss||-110||21 h 7 m||Show|
Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Maryland +9.0
#9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests.
Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points.
|10-29-23||Bengals v. 49ers -5||Top||31-17||Loss||-110||26 h 44 m||Show|
Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: 49ers -5.0
Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else.
San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game.
|10-28-23||Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State||Top||7-32||Loss||-110||18 h 11 m||Show|
Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET
Play On: Wyoming +5.0
Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points.
|10-22-23||Dolphins +3 v. Eagles||Top||17-31||Loss||-115||30 h 50 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Dolphins +3.0
Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina.
Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points.
|10-21-23||Colorado State v. UNLV -7||Top||23-25||Loss||-110||23 h 28 m||Show|
Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET
Play On: UNLV -7.0
UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games.
Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points.
|10-15-23||Lions v. Bucs +3.5||Top||20-6||Loss||-115||25 h 6 m||Show|
Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Buccaneers +3.5
The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia. The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover.
NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983. If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points.
|10-08-23||Cowboys +4 v. 49ers||Top||10-42||Loss||-110||34 h 12 m||Show|
Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Cowboys +4.0
Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion.
Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points.
|10-07-23||Alabama v. Texas A&M +1.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||50 h 16 m||Show|
Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Texas A&M +1.5
Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban.
Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies.
|09-25-23||Eagles v. Bucs +5||Top||25-11||Loss||-110||33 h 49 m||Show|
Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET
Play On: Buccaneers +5.0
Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents.
Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways. Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards.
Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week.
|09-23-23||BYU v. Kansas -9.5||Top||27-38||Win||100||19 h 31 m||Show|
BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Kansas -9.5
BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest.
Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday.
Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week.
|09-17-23||Jets v. Cowboys -8||Top||10-30||Win||100||29 h 37 m||Show|
Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Cowboys -8.0
Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency.
Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points.
|09-16-23||Tennessee v. Florida +6.5||Top||16-29||Win||100||47 h 22 m||Show|
Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Florida +6.5
Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112.
College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points.
|09-10-23||Dolphins v. Chargers -3||Top||36-34||Loss||-105||29 h 8 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Chargers -3.0
I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater.
Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play.
|09-09-23||Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4||Top||33-48||Win||100||53 h 2 m||Show|
Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0
Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico.
Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points.
|08-05-23||Mets v. Orioles -1.5||Top||3-7||Win||105||8 h 45 m||Show|
Mets (Megill) @ Orioles (Gibson) 7:05 PM ET
Play On: Orioles -1.5 (+105)
The Mets have lost their last 4 while being outscored by a cumulative 30-11. New York has also dropped 7 of their last 8 road games. Tylor Megill has a a horrible 7.99 ERA/2.23 WHIP during 8 road starts this season. The Mets bullpen has an undesirable 6.57 ERA/1.62 WHP throughout their previous 7 games. New York is coming off a 10-3 loss last night at Camden Yards. They’ve gone 1-9 on the road this season after allowing 9 runs or more in their previous outing and were outscored by an average of 3.4 runs per game.
Kyle Gibson exhibited good form over his last 3 starts with a 3.00 ERA/1.06 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen has been stellar over their previous 7 games with a staff 2.13 ERA/1.03 WHIP. During that identical stretch, Baltimore averaged 6.6 runs scored per game while compiling a .307 team batting average and .369 on-base percentage. Give me the Baltimore Orioles on the run-line.
|07-28-23||Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5||Top||1-4||Win||108||6 h 53 m||Show|
Angels (Giolito) @ Blue Jays (Gausman) 7:07 PM ET
Play On: Toronto -1.5 (+108)
Lucas Giolito makes his Angels debut today after being obtained earlier in the week in a trade with the White Sox. Giolito’s road performance line in 2023 leaves much to be desired as it reads a 5.25 ERA/1.58 WHIP during 11 starts. Furthermore, Giolito has an abysmal 4-17 team start record since the start of last season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater like he’ll be today. Granted the Angels are a red-hot 8-1 in their last 9. However, they played a doubleheader at Detroit yesterday and will be facing a Toronto team that was off on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that the Angels are 8-17 this season when facing teams like Toronto who have a win percentage of between .540 and .620.
Kevin Gausman has been terrific in 9 home starts this season while recording a 2.58 ERA/0.99 WHIP and averaged a healthy 6.6 innings pitched per outing. Since the start of last season, Toronto is 3-0 when facing Lucas Giolito as an opposing starting pitcher. Additionally, Giolito’s terrible 8.62 ERA/1.79 WHIP during those 3 outings was a major contributor to Toronto winning all 3 of those games. Give me the Toronto Blue Jays as a run-line favorite.
|06-23-23||Pirates v. Marlins -1.5||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||5 h 3 m||Show|
Pirates (Ortiz) @ Marlins (Luzardo) 6:40 PM ET
Play On: Marlins -1.5 (+105) (10*)
Let’s start with this. Pittsburgh has lost 10 straight and scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their previous 12 games. Throughout their previous 7 the Pirates are averaging a pathetic 1.9 runs per game while recording a .144 team batting average. Pittsburgh will be facing a marlins team which has allowed 3.0 runs per game throughout their last 7 outings. Luis Ortiz is 0-4 in his road team starts this season with a lousy 5.50 ERA and abysmal 1.94 WHIP. Even then, Ortiz is fortunate to have an ERA that low with a WHIP that high. Simply put, he’s wiggled out of lot of james during those starts while flirting with potential disaster.
Miami is 14-1 this season as a home favorite of -150 or greater this and outscored their opponents by a decisive average of 3.5 runs per game. During their previous 7 games the Marlins have an outstanding .305 batting average and .352 on-base-percentage as a team. Miami’s Jesus Luzardo is 6-2 in his home team starts this season while posting a stellar 3.04 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Throughout their previous 7 games, the Marlins bullpen staff has a combined 2.49 ERA/1.06 WHIP.
Give me the Miami Marlins as a run-line favorite for a 10* Top Play wager.
|05-13-23||Rangers -1.5 v. A's||Top||5-0||Win||105||3 h 10 m||Show|
Rangers (Gray) @ A’s (Kaprielian) 4:07 PM ET
Play On: Rangers -1.5 (-103) (10*)
Oakland is 1-15 during day games this season and were outscored by an enormous 4.6 runs per game. The A’s are also an abysmal 4-16 at home and being outscored by an average of 3.5 runs per game.
Conversely, Texas is 9-4 during the day this season with a huge +3.6 run per game differential and averaging a substantial 8.1 runs scored per game. The Rangers lost at Oakland last night. But they can take comfort in knowing the A’s are a miserable 1-7 in 2023 immediately following a win and that includes 0-3 at home. Texas’ Jon Gray has been sharp in 4 road starts with a shiny 3.05 ERA/1.02 WHIP.
Give me the Texas Rangers on the run-line.
|05-12-23||Warriors v. Lakers -2.5||Top||101-122||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET
Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*)
Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less.
The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game.
Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|05-11-23||Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns||Top||125-100||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET
Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*)
Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game.
NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010.
Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points.
|05-10-23||Lakers v. Warriors -7||Top||106-121||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET
Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*)
The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game.
Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play.
|04-26-23||Knicks v. Cavs -5.5||Top||106-95||Loss||-110||6 h 4 m||Show|
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*)
We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game.
Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points.
|04-22-23||Bucks v. Heat +5||Top||99-121||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*)
Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive.
The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games.
Give me the Miami Heat plus points.
|04-18-23||Clippers v. Suns -8||Top||109-123||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET
Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*)
Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest.
Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game.
Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points.
|04-14-23||Bulls v. Heat -5.5||Top||91-102||Win||100||7 h 24 m||Show|
Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*)
The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game.
Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game.
Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered.
Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite.
|04-01-23||Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut||Top||59-72||Loss||-110||29 h 38 m||Show|
Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET
Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*)
I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less.
Give me Miami plus the points.
|03-26-23||Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5||Top||56-57||Win||100||23 h 58 m||Show|
San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET
Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*)
San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game.
Give me San Diego State.
|03-19-23||Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15||Top||70-78||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET
Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*)
The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule.
Give me FAU minus the points.
|03-18-23||Maryland v. Alabama -8.5||Top||51-73||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET
Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*)
These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota.
Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games.
Give me Alabama minus the points.
|03-18-23||Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA||Top||63-68||Win||100||31 h 10 m||Show|
Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET
Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*)
I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category.
Give me Northwestern plus the points.
|03-17-23||Kent State +4.5 v. Indiana||Top||60-71||Loss||-110||35 h 3 m||Show|
Kent State vs. Indiana 9:55 PM ET
Play On: Kent State +4.5 (10*)
This line jumped right off the page at me. We have #21 Indiana as just a 4.0-point favorite versus unranked Kent State winners of the MAC Tournament. However, Kent State has proven it can play with the big boys this season. They lost at #2 Houston (31-3) by 5, #9 Gonzaga (28-5) by 7, and at CAA champion Charleston (31-3) by only 2. The Golden Flashes are 22-3 in their last 25 and includes a current 6-game win streak. Indiana went just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Hoosiers did most of their damage at home this season where they went 15-2. Conversely, they were just 7-9 in away and neutral site games.
Give me Kent State plus the points.
|03-16-23||College of Charleston v. San Diego State -5||Top||57-63||Win||100||24 h 9 m||Show|
Charleston vs. San Diego State 3:10 PM ET
Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (10*)
Charleston seems to be a popular pick when it comes to upsets on March Madness brackets being filled out by the public. After all, they’re 31-3 which includes 16-2 in conference play. However, as opposed to San Diego State, Charleston ranks #304 national in terms of strength of schedule and #232 with regards to its non-conference slate.
San Diego State (27-6) is the Mountain West Conference Tournament regular season and conference tournament champion. That’s nothing to make light off since the conference will be represented by 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs have traditionally been an excellent defensive team. This season is no different since they rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs also played the 16th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Aztecs will also have a decided advantage when it comes to experience which should always be factored in when handicapping NCAA Tournament games.
Give me San Diego State minus the points.
|03-04-23||UNLV v. Nevada -8.5||Top||69-67||Loss||-105||6 h 10 m||Show|
UNLV @ Nevada 5:00 PM ET
Play On: Nevada -8.5 (5*)
UNLV is coming off a terrible 25-point home blowout loss to Utah State in their previous game. The Rebels have now lost 4 of its last 5 while shooting a terrible 38.7% throughout that stretch.
Nevada is coming off an 80-71 upset loss at Wyoming. However, the Wolfpack is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS following a loss this season. Nevada is also 14-0 at home and that includes 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when facing conference opponents. The Wolfpack will be also out to atone for a 68-62 loss at UNLV earlier this season.
Give me Nevada minus the points.
|03-03-23||Knicks -2.5 v. Heat||Top||122-120||Loss||-110||6 h 29 m||Show|
New York @ Miami 8:10 PM ET
Play On: New York -2.5 (5*)
Miami has been slumping which is evidenced by them going 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The Heat have scored 108 points or fewer in each of its previous 8 games. It’s very difficult to win in this NBA modern era with that kind of poor offensive scoring numbers.
New York enters today a red-hot 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 and won by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. During this sizzling hot run they’ve averaged 123.7 points scored per game and shot a combined 51.5% from the field. The Knicks most latest win came at home over Brooklyn 142-118. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road immediately following a road double-digit win and they won by an average of 13.0 points per game.
Give me New York minus the points.
|02-25-23||Virginia v. North Carolina -3||Top||63-71||Win||100||7 h 27 m||Show|
Virginia @ North Carolina 6:00 PM ET
Play On: North Carolina -3.0 (10*)
This line jumped right off the page at me. We have an unranked North Carolina team which has lost 5 of its last 7 games as a favorite over the #6 ranked team in the country. They’re begging you to take the underdog in this spot. I’m not falling for the bait.
Give me North Carolina minus the points.
|01-31-23||Indiana v. Maryland -2.5||Top||55-66||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
Indiana @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Maryland -2.5 (10*)
Indiana is coming off a home blowout win over Ohio State. However, it must be noted that Indiana is currently a money line underdog of +130 in this matchup. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Indiana is 0-10 SU as a money line road underdog of +200 or less and lost by an average of 11.0 points per game. They were in that situation twice this season and lost at Penn State by 19 and at Kansas by 22.
Maryland is 11-1 SU at home this season with their lone defeat coming against an extremely good UCLA team. Nevertheless, the Terrapins are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game.
Give me Maryland minus the points.
|01-22-23||Bengals v. Bills -5.5||Top||27-10||Loss||-110||27 h 4 m||Show|
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)
The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit.
Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game.
NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence.
Give me Buffalo minus the points.
|01-14-23||Iowa State +8.5 v. Kansas||Top||60-62||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*)
There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points.
Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games.
Give me Iowa State plus the points.
|01-08-23||Lions v. Packers -4.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||26 h 16 m||Show|
Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*)
Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871) and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival.
Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game.
Give me Green Bay minus the points.
|01-01-23||Vikings v. Packers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||27 h 46 m||Show|
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*)
The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games.
Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit.
NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game.
Give me Green Bay minus the points.
|12-18-22||Steelers v. Panthers -3||Top||24-16||Loss||-100||22 h 50 m||Show|
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*)
Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins.
The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings.
Give me Carolina minus the points.
|12-17-22||Florida v. Oregon State -8||Top||3-30||Win||100||24 h 0 m||Show|
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*)
This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses.
Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC.
Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-11-22||Bucs v. 49ers -3||Top||7-35||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET
Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*)
Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games.
NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game.
Give me the 49ers minus the points.
|12-04-22||Dolphins v. 49ers -4||Top||17-33||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET
Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*)
Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.
Give me the 49ers minus the points.
|12-03-22||Toledo v. Ohio +3||Top||17-7||Loss||-110||23 h 50 m||Show|
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*)
These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession.
Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year.
|11-27-22||Bengals v. Titans +1.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||17 h 14 m||Show|
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*)
Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog.
|11-26-22||Oregon v. Oregon State +3||Top||34-38||Win||100||22 h 10 m||Show|
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)
You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts.
Give me Oregon State plus the points.
|11-25-22||Duke -4.5 v. Xavier||Top||71-64||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*)
Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game.
Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-24-22||Giants v. Cowboys -10||Top||20-28||Loss||-110||22 h 18 m||Show|
Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*)
Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements.
Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game.
|11-23-22||Kent State v. College of Charleston -2||Top||72-74||Push||0||7 h 22 m||Show|
Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*)
Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests.
Give me Charleston minus the small number.
|11-13-22||Browns +4 v. Dolphins||Top||17-39||Loss||-110||122 h 6 m||Show|
Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*)
Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL.
Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer.
Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-12-22||TCU v. Texas -7||Top||17-10||Loss||-110||50 h 2 m||Show|
TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*)
I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners.
If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well.
College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest.
Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-05-22||Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-110||21 h 46 m||Show|
Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)
This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time.
Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week.
|10-30-22||49ers v. Rams +1||Top||31-14||Loss||-110||27 h 10 m||Show|
San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)
The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4.
NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams.
Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play.
|10-29-22||Wake Forest v. Louisville +3.5||Top||21-48||Win||100||22 h 5 m||Show|
Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*)
Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1.
Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below.
Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game.
Give me Louisville plus the points.
|10-23-22||Colts v. Titans -2.5||Top||10-19||Win||100||24 h 49 m||Show|
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*)
Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry.
Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3.
Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game.
Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-22-22||Minnesota +5 v. Penn State||Top||17-45||Loss||-110||24 h 29 m||Show|
Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*)
Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt. Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright.
We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-16-22||Cowboys v. Eagles -6||Top||17-26||Win||100||29 h 20 m||Show|
Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*)
Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played.
NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game.
Give me the Eagles minus the points.
|10-15-22||Nebraska v. Purdue -14||Top||37-43||Loss||-105||21 h 29 m||Show|
Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET
Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*)
Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite.
Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest.
Give me Purdue minus the points.
|10-09-22||Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens||Top||17-19||Win||100||27 h 18 m||Show|
Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*)
Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again.
After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests.
Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|10-08-22||Washington State v. USC -12.5||Top||14-30||Win||100||25 h 8 m||Show|
Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET
Play On: USC -12.5 (10*)
This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon.
Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons.
Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game.
Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-02-22||Patriots +10.5 v. Packers||Top||24-27||Win||100||25 h 58 m||Show|
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*)
I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat.
Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game.
NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests.
Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-01-22||Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5||Top||31-21||Loss||-110||51 h 57 m||Show|
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*)
Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College.
Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task.
Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner.
|09-29-22||Dolphins v. Bengals -4||Top||15-27||Win||100||27 h 55 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*)
Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it.
By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite.
Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month.
|09-25-22||49ers v. Broncos +2||Top||10-11||Win||100||27 h 45 m||Show|
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*)
Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week.
NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play.
|09-24-22||USC v. Oregon State +6||Top||17-14||Win||100||50 h 7 m||Show|
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*)
Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-18-22||Bears v. Packers -10||Top||10-27||Win||100||34 h 14 m||Show|
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*)
Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game.
Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest.
Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|09-11-22||Giants +5.5 v. Titans||Top||21-20||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET
Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*)
Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best.
The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span.
Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|09-10-22||Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5||Top||34-27||Loss||-110||53 h 13 m||Show|
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*)
Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater.
Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave.
Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-03-22||Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||20 h 43 m||Show|
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Army +2.5 (10*)
Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them.
Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play.
|08-27-22||Washington Commanders v. Ravens -6||Top||15-17||Loss||-110||122 h 23 m||Show|
Commanders @ Ravens 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Ravens -6.0
Washington has gone a dismal 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a preseason underdog and lost by an average margin of 16.0 points per game. That includes 0-3 ATS (-17.7 PPG) under current head coach Ron Rivera.
Since 2016, Baltimore has gone an incredible 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS in their preseason games under present head coach John Harbaugh. As a matter of fact, since Harbaugh was appointed as the Ravens head coach in 2008, Baltimore has gone 42-12 SU (.778) and 39-14-1 ATS (74%) in their preseason games. Since 2017, Baltimore is 4-0 SU&ATS in preseason action when facing Washington and won by an average of 19.3 points per game. Finally, Baltimore has unequivocally more quality depth on its roster which is always a key component when handicapping preseason action since starters see limited to very little playing time.
|07-29-22||Brewers -1.5 v. Red Sox||Top||4-1||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
Brewers (Woodruff) @ Red Sox (Bello) 7:10 PM ET
Play On: Brewers -1.5 (+100) (5*)
Brayan Bello has made 3 starts this season and all have come since 7/6. During those 3 outings Bello posted an alarmingly high 10.50 ERA/2.50 WHIP. The Red Sox bullpen has an awful 8.10 ERA/1.80 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Despite yesterday’s 4-3 win over Cleveland, Boston is still a dismal 5-15 in their last 20 games and includes 1-7 during its previous 8.
On the other hand, Milwaukee enters today having won 5 of its previous 6 games and they scored 6 runs or more in all 5 wins. The Brewers last played on Wednesday when they recorded a 10-4 win over Minnesota. Since the start of last season, Milwaukee has gone an extremely profitable 25-9 on the road immediately following a win by 4 runs or more. Brandon Woodruff has displayed good form over his last 5 starts while collecting a 2.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP during that stretch. Give me the Brewers on the run line.
|07-25-22||Braves -1.5 v. Phillies||Top||4-6||Loss||-109||7 h 32 m||Show|
Braves (Fried) @ Phillies (Suarez) 7:05 PM ET
Play On: Braves -1.5 (-109) (10*)
Rangers Suarez has made 2 starts versus Atlanta this season and was highly ineffective in both. During those 2 outings, Suarez posted a 7.36 ERA/1.64 WHIP in 11.0 innings pitched. The Phillies bullpen has posted a lofty 5.56 ERA over their last 7 games. Philadelphia enters today having lost their last 3 and 7 of its previous 10 games.
Atlanta is coming off yesterday’s 9-1 home loss to the Angels. However, the Braves have gone 10-0 in their last 10 following a loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 4.3 runs per game. As a matter of fact, Atlanta hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 6/18. Since the start of last season, Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 41-14 as a money line road favorite of -125 or greater. Max Fried is 6-1 in his road team starts this season with a terrific 2.51 ERA/0.79 WHIP and averaged 6.7 innings pitched per outing. The current total on this game is 8.0. Fried is a superb 21-3 in his team starts since last season whenever there was a total of 8.0 or 8.5. Give me the Braves on the run line for a Top Play.
|07-15-22||Mariners -1.5 v. Rangers||Top||8-3||Win||110||7 h 48 m||Show|
Mariners (Ray) @ Texas (Bush) 8:05 PM ET
Play On: Mariners -1.5 (+110) (10*)
Texas will be reeling after blowing a 5-1 leading heading into the 7th inning during last night’s 6-5 loss to Seattle. Conversely, the Mariners have now won 11 straight and 19 of its last 22 games. That successful stretch also has seen Seattle go 10-1 on the road. Since 2020, Seattle has dominated Texas while going 26-10 versus the Rangers.
Michael Bush has made 3 starts this season and went just 1.0 inning on each occasion. So. Texas will attempt to piece this game together with a bullpen that has a sizable staff 6.68 ERA throughout the previous 7 days.
Robbie Ray has been brilliant over his last 6 starts with a 0.91 ERA/0.73 WHIP and averaged 6.6 innings pitched per start. Rays has made 1 start this season and 1 last while posting a 2.89 ERA/0.96 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has an excellent 1.61 ERA/1.00 WHIP during its previous 7 games. The Mariners are brimming with confidence after winning their last 11 and 19 of its previous 22 games. Give me the Mariners on the run line for a Top Play wager.
|06-16-22||Warriors v. Celtics -3.5||Top||103-90||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
Warriors @ Celtics 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -3.5 (10*)
Boston is coming off a disappointing 104-94 loss in Game 5 at Golden State. The Celtics have now lost 2 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. However, the Celtics haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/29/2021. As a matter of fact they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 18.3 points per contest. Golden State enters tonight’s game with a season record of 68-35 (.660).
Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 7.0 or less (Celtics) that’s playing in a Game 6, and is coming off a loss in which they scored less than 100 points, versus an opponent (Warriors) with a season record of .636 to .736, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those home teams won those 10 contests by a decisive margin of 14.9 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play.
|06-13-22||Celtics +4 v. Warriors||Top||94-104||Loss||-110||11 h 41 m||Show|
Celtics @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +4.0 (10*)
The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to give themselves a commanding 3-1 series lead following their 107-97 home loss to Golden State in Game 4. Nevertheless, Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during these playoffs following a loss and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 15.6 points per game. The Celtics are also a very successful 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS this season following a loss by 10 points or more with a sizable +11.1 points per game differential. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|06-11-22||Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5||Top||0-4||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) @ Phillies (Wheeler) 4:10 PM ET
Play On: Phillies -1.5 (-105) (10*)
Madison Bumgarner has a lofty 5.63 ERA over his last 4 starts and allowed 6 home runs in 24.0 innings pitched. That high ratio of home runs allowed is problematic when considering he’ll be facing a Phillies team which has cracked 21 home runs throughout its previous 8 games. The Arizona bullpen has been extremely shaky of late. Since last season, Arizona is 6-30 during the month of June.
The Phillies enter today riding a red-hot 8-game win streak and scored 6 runs or more 7 times. Blake Wheeler has a brilliant 1.73 ERA and 0.94 WHIP during 6 home starts this season. The maligned Phillies bullpen has been terrific recently. Give me the Phillies on the run-line.
|06-10-22||Warriors v. Celtics -3.5||Top||107-97||Loss||-115||7 h 17 m||Show|
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)
Boston is coming off a 116-100 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night an easily covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. This sets up a terrific NBA Playoff betting angle which is displayed below.
Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in Game 4 of a series and is coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 6.0 to 24.0 points, resulted in those Game 4 home favorites going 14-1 SU&ATS since 2010. If that point-spread was 2.5 to 5.0 points the home favorite improves to 10-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|06-08-22||Warriors v. Celtics -3.5||Top||100-116||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)
Golden State has been terrific at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs with a 10-1 record. Nonetheless, they’ve gone a concerning 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 on the road. The Warriors enter today with a season record of 66-34 (.660).
Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2 at Golden State which evened this NBA Finals series at 1-1. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch during the postseason following a loss while going 6-0 SU&ATS and winning by a decisive average of 15.5 points per game. As a matter of fact, Boston hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 3/30. This will be the 1st NBA Finals home game for the Celtics faithful since 2010 and the atmosphere at TD Garden tonight promises to be electric thus giving an additional energy boost to their beloved team.
Any NBA Playoff Game 3 home favorite of 2.5 to 4.5 points (Boston) that’s coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 15.0 or less, and it evened the series at 1-1, and is facing an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .690 or less, resulted in those Game 3 home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 10 contests by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for my NBA Playoff Game of the Year.
|06-05-22||Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors||Top||88-107||Loss||-115||29 h 38 m||Show|
Celtics @ Warriors 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Boston +4.5 (10*)
The early betting on this game has heavily sided with the home favorite Golden State Warriors. Yet, this line opened at 4.0 and is currently still at 4.0 at most betting parlors. The sportsbooks have been unfazed by the onslaught of action wagered on the home side while refusing to move off the opening line. Since the Celtics are coming off a 120-108 win in Game 1 on Thursday night, their remains many NBA bettors that still subscribe to the zig-zag theory as being a no brainer concept at playoff time. There is also a consensus opinion out there giving little if any chance the Golden State will lose 2 straight at home, especially after starting the postseason 9-0 in San Francisco, and going 40-11 this season on their home floor all year. Hence, the predictable heavy action on the Warriors. Much ado has been given to the Warriors home court prowess during these playoffs, and rightfully so. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Boston is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road during the postseason while facing very good opponents in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami.
These teams are being lauded as being elite defensively. Boston has certainly earned that reputation for their play during regular season action in which they were #1 in many defensive categories. Despite giving up 108 to Golden State in Game 1, the Celtics have held their last 5 playoff opponents to 95.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 10 contests. Conversely, Golden State has allowed 110 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games.
Boston is coming off a 120-108 win at Golden State on Thursday and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped the Warriors season record to 65-34 (.657). Any NBA Finals away underdog of 6.0 or less (Boston) that’s coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 110 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .707 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The away underdogs not only won all 4 of those contests straight up, but they did so by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game. The average line in those 4 games was 4.7. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|06-02-22||Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors||Top||120-108||Win||100||28 h 37 m||Show|
Celtics @ Golden State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +3.5 (10*)
Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, Boston is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road in this postseason. Golden State has been a heavily wagered on side thus far according to public betting patterns. Afterall, they have a huge edge in NBA Finals experience and will be facing a Celtics team coming off back-to-back series that have gone an entire 7 games. Additionally, Golden State will be playing on an extra 3 days of rest compared to Boston in Game 1. Thus, public perception and betting trends being lopsided toward Golden State.
However, Boston has gone 19-9 ATS as an underdog this season including 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Celtics have also won their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7 played at Golden State. That includes a 22-point win at Golden State on 3/16. The Celtics were tremendous defensively against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, and especially so during the last 5 in that series when they held the Heat to 95.6 points scored per game and an atrocious 39.6% shooting. Granted Golden State will present more challenges offensively than Miami. Nonetheless, the Heat are more committed defensively than Golden State. Boston has defeated Brooklyn with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, defending world champion Milwaukee, and #1 Eastern Conference seed Miami to reach the Finals. A far tougher path than Golden State has taken. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-29-22||Celtics -2.5 v. Heat||Top||100-96||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -2.5 (10*)
This will be just the 3rd time since 1991 NBA Playoffs that we have a Game 7 road favorite. That speaks volumes to me. Not only are the Celtics a Game 7 road favorite, but it comes after a Game 6 home loss and them squandering a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks are dangling the carrot to take the home underdog in this win or go home matchup. I am not taking the bait.
Any NBA Game 7 away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 and there was a total of 203.0 or less, resulted in those road teams going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The average margin of victory was 7.0-points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-25-22||Celtics v. Heat +2.5||Top||93-80||Loss||-110||9 h 29 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Miami +2.5 (10*)
Miami is coming off a terrible performance in Game 4 at Boston on Monday which resulted in a 102-82 blowout loss. However, the Heat have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss and won by a massive average of 27.3 points per game. Despite that lopsided loss, Miami still held Boston to just 39% shooting. Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% shooting and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Heat have gone 20-1 SU this season following a game in which there was a combined 205 points or less scored. Lastly, Boston has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win and all those contests took place in the playoffs. Give me the Heat plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|05-20-22||Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors||Top||117-126||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (10*)
Dallas is coming off a terrible 112-87 loss in the series opener on Wednesday. The Mavericks were held to 36% shooting and were dominated on the boards 51-35. However, this is a very resilient Dallas team that’s gone 10-0 SU this season following a loss by 20 points or more and outscored opponents by 13.2 points per game. Dallas is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season after shooting worse than 40% during its previous game and won by 14.9 points per contest. Lastly, the Mavericks are 12-1 SU during their last 13 following a game they scored less than 100 points. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-19-22||Celtics +3.5 v. Heat||Top||127-102||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Boston +3.5 (10*)
Boston is coming off an opening game 118-107 loss at Miami and failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Boston has gone a terrific 10-1 SU in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in the playoffs with an average victory margin 14.7 points per contest. The Celtics will also welcome NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to the lineup after he missed Game 1 due to a foot injury.
Since the 2011 NBA Playoffs, any away underdog of 4.5 or less that’s playing in a Game 2 and is coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0-points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS. Furthermore, those away underdogs won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-18-22||Mavs +5 v. Warriors||Top||87-112||Loss||-110||31 h 56 m||Show|
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Mavericks +5.0 (10*)
Dallas has gone 3-1 SU&ATS versus Golden State this season. The Mavericks recently concluded a huge upset win over #1 seed Phoenix in their previous series which was culminated with a decisive 123-90 road win in Game 7. Dallas is 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or fewer in their previous contest and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game. The Mavericks are also 15-3 SU this season following a game in which they allowed 95 points or fewer. During their last 3 games in the Conference Semifinals versus Memphis, Golden State only averaged 102.0 points scored per contest while shooting a poor 41.2% from the field. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-17-22||Celtics +2 v. Heat||Top||107-118||Loss||-105||9 h 37 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:45 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +2.0 (10*)
The Celtics are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road thus far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only blemish came in Game 3 at Milwaukee when they fell by just 2 points after Al Horford’s potential last second game tying tip was waved off and deemed to be just after time had expired. The Celtics have also gone a noteworthy 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami. Boston has an impressive +7.4 point per game differential on the road this season. During their 3 regular season meetings versus Miami, Boston held the Heat to a mere 92.0 points scored per game and 40.5% shooting. During their 7-game series win over Milwaukee, Boston held a potent offensive team like the Bucks to just 97.7 points per contest. Lastly, it’s really odd to seed a #1 seed as just a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 1 of a Conference Finals, not to mention that the Heat are a money line underdog of +150 to win the series. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|05-15-22||Bucks v. Celtics -4.5||Top||81-109||Win||100||25 h 55 m||Show|
Bucks @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*)
Boston has exhibited exactly why they were #1 in overall defensive efficiency during regular season action. Throughout the first 6 games of this series versus Milwaukee they held the Bucks to 110.5 points scored per game and 42.2% shooting. They will carry the momentum carried over from a convincing 108-95 win in Game 6 at Milwaukee. Boston has already lost twice at home in this series. I deem it to be highly improbable that a team that played so well during the 2nd half of the season will lose 3 at home in a single playoff series and is even more likely to win by a comfortable margin.
The Celtics forced a Game 7 with an impressive 108-95 win at Milwaukee on Thursday night. That win improved the Celtics season record to 58-34 (.630). Any NBA Playoff team that’s a home favorite of 4.0 to 6.5-points in a Game 7, and they possess a win percentage of .626 or better, and they allowed 98 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS. The home teams also outscored their 7 opponents by a decisive average of 15.6 points per game. The home team only allowed an average of 88.3 points per game during those 7 contests. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-13-22||Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks||Top||108-95||Win||100||27 h 46 m||Show|
Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +1.5 (10*)
The defending world champion Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a thrilling 110-107 comeback win at Boston on Wednesday. The Bucks overcame a 14-point early 4th quarter deficit and trailed by 6 with less than 2 minutes left. Yet, they’re just a 1.5-point favorite with a chance to close the series at home and prevent going back to Boston for a Game 7. As I have stated on too many times to remember, “think like a bookmaker”. If it looks too easy, then most times it is when it’s regarding sports betting. This is a textbook example of such.
Any away team (Celtics) with a win percentage of .700 or less that’s playing in a Game 6 during the first 2 rounds of the NBA Playoffs and is coming off a home favorite SU loss in Game 5, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS (91%) since 2000. Those away teams also went 21-3 SU (.875) in those contests as well. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|05-12-22||Suns v. Mavs +2||Top||86-113||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
Phoenix @ Dallas 9:30 PM ET
Play On: Dallas +2.0 (10*)
Dallas is coming off a brutal performance during Tuesday night’s 110-80 loss at Phoenix and now finds itself down 3-2 in this series, and on the brink of elimination. However, this is a Mavericks team that’s shown excellent recuperative powers following a lopsided loss. Specifically speaking, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 SU this season following a road loss by 20 points or more and they won by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Mavericks are also 14-1 SU since the start of last season following any loss by 20 points or greater. This is also a Mavericks team which is 33-13 SU (.715) at home this season. Phoenix is just 2-3 on the road in the playoffs after going a terrific 32-9 during regular season away games. Give me Dallas plus the small number for a Top Play.
|05-11-22||Bucks v. Celtics -5||Top||110-107||Loss||-110||9 h 31 m||Show|
Bucks @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -5.0 (10*)
The Celtics have held one of the better offensive teams in the NBA to 99.5 points scored per game and 42.1% shooting throughout the first 4 games of this series. Furthermore, during the previous 3 games of the series, Milwaukee is a terrible 21-79 (26.6%) from beyond the 3-point line. Additionally, during those 3 contests Boston has outscored Milwaukee in the 4th quarters by a combined score of 103-71. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to draw the conclusion that Milwaukee is obviously wearing down late in game while the Celtics keep getting stronger.
Any NBA home favorite of 6.0 or less (Celtics) that’s play in a Round 2 Game 5 of a playoff series and is coming off an away underdog SU win by 5 points or more, resulted in those reasonably sized home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1991. Those 8 home favorites won those contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.