Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Michigan -4.5

The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points.

Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Texas -3.5

This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points.

Liberty vs. Oregon 1:00 PM ET

Game# 277-278

Play On: Oregon -17.5

Liberty comes into this New Year’s Fiesta Bowl game undefeated at 13-0 and will take on a Power 5 Conference team for the first time this season. Although they look forward to the challenge and tough task at hand, it may be one of those be careful what you wish for scenarios. 6th year quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Bo Nix will play for Oregon. All Nix did this year was throw for 4145 yards and 40 touchdowns against only 3 picks. Nix also ran for 228 yards and 6 scores as well. Oregon will be without some key offensive skill position players who have opted out. But the Ducks annually bring in top recruiting classes and have high quality depth. Oregon is 11-2 and their only losses were a pair of 3-point defeats against #2 Washington (13-0). Additionally, Oregon is #10 nationally in scoring defense at 17.2 points per game. Oregon is also #2 in both scoring and total offense. Liberty is #1 nationally when it comes to rushing offense at 302.9 yards per game and #3 in total offense. However, Oregon is 12th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 97.9 yards per game. Give me Oregon minus the points.

Iowa vs. Tennessee 1:00 PM ET

Game#  275-276

Play On: Tennessee -5.5

Yes, Tennessee starting quarterback Joe Milton Jr. opted out of this bowl game. But, I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing. Tennessee will go with 5* true freshmen Nico Iamaleava who projected to be a star. Iowa’s offense is anemic and that might be kind. On the other hand, the Hawkeye defense is excellent and the main reason they went 10-2 during regular season action before losing to Michigan 26-0 in the Big 10 Championship Game. By, the way, the Tennessee defense is a pretty good unit as well and faced a lot more explosive offenses in the SEC than Iowa faced in the top heavy Big 10. Give me Tennessee minus points.

Maryland vs. Auburn 2:00 PM ET

Game# 267-268

Play On: Auburn -4.5

Auburn is an excellent running team that’s rushed for 144 yards or more in all 7 games versus SEC opponents. That includes running for 244 yards vs. #4 Alabama (12-1) and 219 yards against #6 Georgia (12-1) in near upsets of both those highly ranked foes. Maryland will be without their starting quarterback who opted out to prepare himself for the NFL draft. That’s an issue when considering Marland averages only 109 yards rushing per game and 56.7% of their offensive plays have been pass attempts. Last, the Terrapins defense allowed their last 4 opponents to rush for 152 yards or more (170.8 YPG). Give me Auburn minus points.

Rutgers vs. Miami Fla. 2:15 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Miami Fla. +2.5

Despite going 3-5 in their last 8 regular season games, Miami still finished at 7-5. Since the start of last season, Rutgers has gone 1-9 ATS when facing a team with a winning record and were outscored by a substantial margin of 26.6 points per game. The Rutgers offense relies heavily on their running game. The Scarlett Knights have run the ball on 62.9% of their offense plays and 54% of their total yards have come on the ground. However, Miami ranks 16th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 96 yards per game and a mere 3.1 yards per rush attempt. Miami will go with 3rd string quarterback Jacurri Brown against Rutgers. Brown will be seeing his first action of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl. Nevertheless, he played in 8 games a season ago which included 2 starts. Brown is a big 240-pound quarterback with agility as evidence by his 223 yards rushing in limited playing time. He also threw for 3 touchdowns and was intercepted just once in those 2 starts. Give me Miami plus points.

Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 247-248

Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5

Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams.

West Virginia vs. North Carolina 5:30 PM ET

Game# 243-244

Play On: West Virginia -5.0

North Carolina will be without their 3 top players in quarterback Drake Maye, wide receiver Tez Walker, and linebacker Cedric Gray. If there’s a reason to call an 8-4 team disappointing, then North Carolina fits the bill. The Tar Heels began the season 6-0 but finished the regular season by going 1-4 versus Division 1 teams. The elephant in the room for North Carolina has been their porous defense and that’s especially been the case during the final stretch of regular season action. North Carolina has allowed 31 points or more in their last 6 games versus Division 1 competition. Conversely, West Virginia has scored 34 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games and surpassed 500 yards of total offense on 4 of those occasions. The Mountaineers have overachieved this season by going 8-4 when considering there wasn’t much expected this season. Furthermore, the Mountaineers roster remains virtually intact in comparison to most of this season's bowl participants when it comes to losing players to the transfer portal or opt outs. Give me West Virginia minus points.

Duke vs. Troy 12:00 PM ET

Game# 221-222.

Play On: Troy -6.5

This line speaks volumes to me when considering we have a Sun Belt team that’s a touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference opponent. Duke started the season 4-0 which included quality wins over Clemson and Northwestern. Then they went 3-5 the rest of the way. Following that 4-0 start they lost a heartbreaker to Notre Dame in which their starting quarterback Riley Leonard was injured. Leonard was never fully healthy the rest of the season and sat out several games. Ironically Leonard has since transferred to Notre Dame. The quality of depth at quarterback behind Leonard leaves plenty to be desired.

Troy started the season 1-2 with their losses coming at Kansas State and versus James Madison (11-1) by a narrow 2-point margin. Since that time, they’ve reeled off 10 wins in a row. Their most recent of those wins came in a 49-23 blowout over Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. The Trojan’s defense has been stout all season while allowing a mere 17.2 points and 308.3 yards per game. Troy is +14.0 points and +117.9 yards per game on their way to a stellar 11-2 record. Give me Troy minus points.

Georgia Tech vs. UCF 6:30 PM ET

Game# 219-220

Play On: Georgia Tech +5.5

UCF started the season 3-0 and then proceeded to go 3-6 during their last 9 games. The Golden Knights are 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite of 8.0 or less and were outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game.

Georgia Tech is coming off a 31-23 loss to #6 Georgia in their regular season finale which dropped their record to 6-6. However, the Yellowjackets have gone a perfect 5-0 SU this season immediately following a loss with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per contest, and they were an underdog on 3 of those occasions. Georgia Tech will be facing a UCF team which is averaging 32.3 points scored per game this season. Nonetheless, since the start of last season, Georgia Tech has gone an unscathed 9-0 ATS versus opponents who average 31.0 or more points scored per game. Give me Georgia Tech plus points.

Marshall vs. UTSA 9:00 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: UTSA -10.5

The Roadrunners were the far better team even before the multitude os Marshall players going into the transfer portal. Now they’re the far superior side and the only team that will be UTSA in this matchup is UTSA. Marshall not only has on the field issues but the off the field problems have been equally as troubling. Their current head coach isn’t liked by not only the players but the Thundering Herd’s loyakl fan base as well. There are also no viable sources for NIL money. Hence the inordinate number of players jumping ship once the regular season concluded. Speaking of the regular season, Marshall began the 2023 campaign 4-0 and has gone a dismal 2-6 since. The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 2.0 or greater and were outscored by an average of 17.0 points per game.

UTSA began the season 1-3 and then proceeded to win 7 of their last 8 contests with their lone defeat coming against eventual AAC champion Tulane 29-16 on the road. The key to UTSA winning and covering in this spot is 7th year senior quarterback Frank Harris Jr. who when healthy like he is now makes the Roadrunners a very difficult offense to defend. UTSA is 8-2 this season with Harris as their starting quarterback. UTSA has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 14.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by an average of 22.0 points per game. Give me UTSA minus points.

Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky 2:30 PM ET

Game# 201-202

Play On: Old Dominion -6.0

Western Kentucky will be without senior starting quarterback Austin Reed and several of their starting offensive linemen. Old Dominion has faced 8 bowl teams during regular season action and that doesn’t even include James Madison (11-1) that was ineligible to play in postseason action. They went 4-5 in those contests. The monarchs finished regular season play with wins over Georgia Southern and Georgia State to become bowl eligible and will surely be motivated to play the Famous Toastery Bowl at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte which is the home of the NFL Carolina Panthers. Give me Old Dominion minus points.

California vs. Texas Tech 9:15 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: California +3.0

When it comes to minor bowl games such as this, it’s just a matter of what team is more motivated. I firmly believe that the team will be California in this matchup. There were high expectations for Texas Tech heading into the season being that they had 17 returning starters including all 11 on offense from a team that went 8-5 the year before. But they finished regular season action with a very uninspiring 6-6 record to barely qualify for postseason action. On the other hand, not much was expected from California heading into the year and it came as no surprise that they were 3-6 through their first 9 games. However, the finished their regular season slate by going 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 including a pair of road wins to close out the campaign over Stanford and UCLA which made them bowl eligible. I look for an inspired effort from the Golden Bears in this one. They key to victory will be California being able to run the ball with a high degree of success. Throughout their last 3 contests, Texas Tech allowed 207 yards or more on the ground during each occasion, and opponents averaged an alarmingly high 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. Cal averaged an impressive 182.7 yards per game on the ground this season and a healthy 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Give me California plus points.

Boise State @ UCLA 7:30 PM ET

Game# 209-210

Play On: UCLA -5.5

This game will almost be like a home game for UCLA with it being played at So-Fi Stadium in Los Angeles. Boise State’s starting quarterback Taylen Green entered the transfer portal following the Broncos MWC Championship Game win over UNLV. The Broncos are set to start freshmen C.J. Tiller at quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass this season. Boise State will rely on their ground attack and star running back Ashton Jeanty who ran for 1262 yards this season. However, he’ll be facing a UCLA defense that was 5th nationally in rushing defense at 68.6 yards per game. The Bruins starting cornerbacks entered the transfer portal, but I would be more concerned if Boise State had a more experienced signal caller than C.J. Tiller. Give me UCLA minus points.

Miami-Ohio vs. Appalachian State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 205-206

Play On: Appalachian State -6.5

This opening line and the ensuing movement speak volumes to me. We have an Appalachian State team who was blown out in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by Troy as currently better than a touchdown favorite the MAC champion Miami-Ohio Red Hawks. Truth be told, the Sun Belt was far and away better than the MAC this season from top to bottom. There were 10 of 12 Sun Belt teams that were bowl eligible and the MAC was extremely top heavy and with a lot of bad teams. Despite that loss to Troy, the Mountaineers enter the bowl season 8-5 and with their other 4 losses coming by 7 points or fewer. Miami was terrific defensively during conference play while allowing just 12.0 points per game. However, in 3 non-conference games versus FBS opponents the Red Hawks surrendered 30.0 points and 445.7 yards per game. The Redhawk’s offense leaves much to be desired. Throughout their previous 6 contests they averaged only 21.5 points scored and 281.0 yards gained per game. They’re going to be facing a Mountaineers offense that averages 34.8 points scored and 452.2 yards gained per game. Give me Appalachian State minus points.

Iowa @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 323-324

Play On: Iowa +22.5

Let me start by stating the obvious, Michigan is unequivocally the far superior team in this matchup as this current point-spread indicates. I just think this sets up for a potential flat spot for the undefeated Wolverines as it applies to covering this big a number. Michigan comes off a huge emotional when over bitter rival and then undefeated Ohio State this past Saturday. Awaiting them is a semifinal game in the College Football 4-team Playoffs. Sandwiched between is the formalityof playing in the Big 10 Championship game in which they’re installed as a better than 3-touchdown favorite against an offensively inept Iowa (10-2) team that averages a mere 18.0 points scored per contest. However, the Hawkeyes defense has been nothing short of excellent while holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 of 12 games. Iowa’s defense will keep them in this contest for a long period of time and play a big part in staying inside of this huge number. Give me Iowa plus points.

Alabama vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Alabama +5.5

Stop the press, Alabama is an underdog for just the 8th time since 2008 and they went a very profitable 5-2 SU&ATS in their previous 7 and all with Nick Saban as their head coach. Ironically enough 4 of those 7 games were against Georgia and they 3-1 SU&ATS in those contests. If the Crimson Tide has any chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs they absolutely must beat Georgia on Saturday. One of those wins came in the 2021 SEC Championship Game when they knocked off Georgia 41-34 as a 6.0-point underdog then only lose to the Bulldogs 5 weeks later in the National Championship Game 5 weeks later. That defeat put a halt to Alabama winning 7 straight over Georgia. This game goes right down to the wire. Give me Alabama plus points.

Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Texas -14.5

Texas’ chances to reach the College Football 4-Team Playoffs are very real. Their first order of business is taking care of Oklahoma State, or every other scenario is moot without that transpiring. It wouldn’t hurt to have some style points while doing so which is namely winning by a large margin. A narrow victory will likely not be good enough to sway the committee. The Longhorns will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State last October. Oklahoma State had an impressive 5-0 SU&ATS streak earlier this season which included upsets of Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 with an inexplicable 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, allowed Houston (4-8) to give them all they can handle in a 43-30 win, and then last week needed overtime to beat BYU (5-7) at home. They also were blown out at home by South Alabama earlier this season. Give me Texas minus points.

Any College Football favorite of 3.0 or greater that’s playing with revenge in a conference championship game like Texas will be doing, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS and with an average victory margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me Texas minus points.

Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Oregon -9.5

This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game.

Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year.

Florida State @ Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 153-154

Play On: Florida State -6.5

Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks to injury last season and will go with backups under center on Saturday. However, the Florida State defense is far superior to Florida’s stop unit. The Gators have allowed 41.5 points and 537.2 yards per game during their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Florida has lost 4 straight since starting the season 5-2. Florida State is allowing just 13.7 points and 278.7 yards per contest throughout their previous 7 games. I look for the Seminoles to have a high degree of success running the ball in this game when considering Florida has allowed 214.0 yards per game rushing over their previous 5. Give me Florida State minus points.

BYU @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oklahoma State -16.0

BYU started the season. However, since that time they’ve lost 4 straight and by an average of 24.5 points per game. Additionally, the Cougars are 0-4 SU&ATS in conference road games this season and with another sizable loss margin of 25.7 points per contest. Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7, including quality home underdog upset wins over Kansas (7-4), #19 Kansas State (8-3), and #13 Oklahoma (10-2). During those conference home wins the Cowboys averaged 35.0 points scored and 512.3 yards gained per game. Give me Oklahoma State minus points.

Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: Michigan -3.0

Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points.

Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Kansas State -9.5

So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points.

Oklahoma State @ Houston 4:00 PM ET

Game# 403-404

Play On: Oklahoma State -6.0

Oklahoma State is coming off an embarrassing 45-3 loss at Central Florida as a 2.5-point favorite last week. That halted a Cowboys red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS winning run. The oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result when considering they made them a touchdown road favorite this week. The Cowboy’s enigma has been their defense. However, they’ll be matchup against a Houston offense that’s averaged a mere 13.0 points scored and 238.3 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Despite last week’s poor offensive showing at Central Florida, Oklahoma State had averaged 36.0 points scored and 497.0 yards gained per contest during their previously mentioned 5-game win streak. Look for that offensive firepower to return on Saturday against a 4-6 Houston team. Furthermore, Houston is at a -6 turnover margin throughout their previous 3 games and Oklahoma State is +6 over the previous 6 contests. Give me Oklahoma State minus points.

Georgia @ Tennessee 3:30 PM ET

Game# 329-330

Play On: Tennessee +9.5

If it’s possible to say that a 10-0 team like Georgia has shown steady improvement every week then that’s certainly true in this instance. Tennessee is coming off a 36-7 shellacking at #11 Missouri last Saturday in a game they closed as a 2.0-point favorite. Despite that defeat, Tennessee is still a very good 7-3 this season with their other losses coming at #6 Alabama 34-20 and were upset at Florida. Otherwise, the Volunteers are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home when facing FBS opponents with an average victory margin of 28.8 points per game. Granted those 4 wins and covers didn’t come against any team currently ranked the Top 25, but it does speak to confidence playing at home and even more of a psychological boost when facing the 2-time defending national champion. The fact of the matter is that even if Georgia happens to lose this game, if they defeat Georgia Tech next week and Alabama in the SEC Championship game, they’ll in all probability be part of the 4-team College Football Playoffs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset here, but I won’t be foolishly greedy and gladly take the points being afforded to me. Give me Tennessee plus points.

Louisville @ Miami Fla. 12:00 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Miami +1.0

This line makes no sense to me and when that occurs more times than not, I go against what seems to be the obvious choice. We have the #9 team in the country in Louisville at 9-1 as a pick versus an unranked Miami team that’s 6-4 that’s lost the last 2 and 4 of their previous 6 games. Additionally, Louisville game after Miami comes against in state bitter rival Kentucky. If it looks too good to be true pertaining to sports betting it usually is. This is a prime example of such. Give me Miami Fla. on the money line.

SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET

Game# 397-398

Play On: Memphis +9.5

Memphis enters this American Athletic Conference matchup on a 4-game win streak, and it’s improved their season record to 8-2. Conversely, SMU is coming off a SU&ATS 45-21 win over North Texas. SMU is also 8-2 but all 7 of their wins over FBS opponents this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record and have a combined record of 21-50 (.296).

College Football home underdogs of between 2.5 to 14.0 Like Memphis that are coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like SMU who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 2018. The home underdogs also went 14-2 SU in those games. Give me Memphis plus points.

Toledo @ Bowling Green 7:00 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Bowling Green +11.0

Toledo began their season with a narrow 2-point loss at Illinois, and since then has won 9 straight games. Bowling Green began the season 2-4 and then proceeded to win 4 in a row to get to their current 6-4 record. Additionally, 2 of their 4 losses came on the road against nationally ranked Liberty 34-24 and Michigan 31-6 who as of this writing are a combined 20-0.

Any College Football home underdog of 13.0 or less like Bowling Green currently is that’s currently coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like Toledo who’s coming off a conference SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 2018. Those home underdogs were also 14-1 SU in those 15 games. Give me Bowling Green plus points.

Iowa State @ BYU 10:15 PM ET

Game# 171-172

Play On: BYU +8.0

Iowa State had their 3-game win streak halted last Saturday during a 28-21 loss to #17 Kansas. Following this game against 5-4 at BYU they’ll be hosting #7 Texas next. Needless to say this is a potential flat spot for the Cyclones. All 4 losses by BYU have come on the road. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 at home including conference wins over Cincinnati and Texas Tech. This is good situation and spot to back the home underdog. Give me BYU plus points.

Florida @ LSU 7:30 PM ET

Game# 199-200

Play On: LSU -14.5

The most alarming statistic for Florida is the fact they’ve allowed 40.3 points and 482.3 yards per game over the last 3 contests. That highly problematic when facing the prospect of facing an explosive LSU offense that’s averaging 54.0 points scored and 566.3 yards gained per game while going 4-0 at home. Florida is a poor 1-3 on the road this year. LSU is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 versus Florida. Give me LSU minus points.

Utah @ Washington 3:30 PM ET

Game# 177-178

Play On: Utah +9.0

Do you want to know why Washington is 9-0 and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff picture? Well I’m glad you asked. The Huskies last 5 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. The Washington defense has allowed 33 points or greater and 499 yards or more during 3 of their previous 4 games.  Conversely Utah is 7-2 with their only losses coming to #6 Oregon and #12 Oregon State. Utah has scored 34 points or great and gained 445 points or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. The Utes productive running game will be highly effective in this game and in turn control time of possession while limiting offensive possessions for thus high scoring Huskies. Give me Utah plus points.

Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: UCF +2.5

Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is.

College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points.

Arizona @ Colorado 2:00 PM ET

Game# 169-170

Play On: Arizona -10.0

After a promising 3-0 start that saw them ranked in the Top 25, Colorado has lost 5 of their last 6 and will be hard pressed to become bowl eligible. During this current 6-game funk, Colorado has allowed 33.9 points and 469.0 yards per contest.  They will be play against a surging Arizona team that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 while allowing 13.3 points and 304.0 yards per game. Their last 2 of those wins coming off quality wins over UCLA and Oregon State. These are 2 teams headed on opposite paths. Give me Arizona minus points.

Texas Tech @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 159-160

Play On Texas Tech +4.0

Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins versus Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Now they find themselves as just a small home favorite versus a 4-5 Texas Tech team. Additionally, up next for the #17 Jayhawks is #7 Texas. This seems like a fishy line and a potential flat for Kansas. Speaking of Texas Tech, they’re coming off a 35-28 home win over TCU. The Red Raiders are 1-3 SU on the road but have played much better during those contests than that poor record indicates. During those 4 away contests they are a +0.8-point differential and +78.0 yard per game differential. Give me Texas Tech plus the points.

North Texas @ SMU 9:00 PM ET

Game# 119-120

Play On: SMU -17.0

SMU has gone 4-0 SU&ATS during the previous 4 seasons versus North Texas and won by an average substantial margin of 28.3 points per game. The Mustangs are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 contests with an average victory margin of 39.3 points per outing and outgained those opponents by an enormous 339.4 yards per game. Furthermore, SMU is 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season and won by a massive average margin of 42.7 points per game. SMU will be facing a 3-6 North Texas team which allows an average of 36.7 points and 469.0 yards per game.

Any college football home favorite of between 10.0 and 31.5 like SMU with a win percentage of .777 or better, and they’re coming off 3 wins in a row in which they scored 36 points or greater on each occasion, versus an opponent like TCU with a win percentage of .200 or better that’s coming off 2 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2002 and they won by an average of 32.8 points per contest. Give me SMU minus points.

Ohio @ Buffalo 7:00 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Buffalo +7.5

Buffalo went an abysmal 0-4 in the non-conference portion of their schedule. However, since conference action began, they are a respectable 3-2 while only allowing 16.8 points and 285.8 yards per game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers. Ohio is 6-3 overall but just 3-2 in MAC action. The Bobcats have lost 2 of their last 3 and failed to cover on each occasion. Give me Buffalo plus points.

LSU @ Alabama 7:45 PM ET

Game# 383-384

Play On: LSU +3.5

Alabama has won 6 straight games since being upset at home by Texas. Nonetheless, 2 of their last 3 wins came by 6 or less and the lone exception was a 34-20 win over Tennessee in which they trailed 20-7 at halftime. The Crimson Tide has scored 26 points or fewer in 5 of the last 7 games. That can be problematic when considering they’ll be facing a dynamic and explosive LSU offense that averages 47.4 points scored and 553.1 yards game per game. That includes 44.2 points scored and 554.6 yards gained per game while going 4-1 in SEC contests. Alabama hasn’t bee this low a home favorite since 9/22/2007 when they were -3.0 versus Georgia and lost 26-23. The current line speaks volumes to me, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take Alabama as a small home favorite. I’m not taking the bait. Give me LSU plus points.

USC @ Washington 7:30 PM ET

Game# 371-372

Play On: USC +3.0

USC barely escaped with a 50-49 win over California last Saturday. The trojans national championship aspirations ended after losing back-to-back game to Notre Dame and Utah. The Trojan offense led by star quarterback Caleb Williams is championship caliber, but their defense has been an enigma and a huge liability. However, USC would like nothing better than to hand Washington their first loss of the season and put a dent into their College Football Playoff hopes. They’ll certainly be motivated since they’re an underdog at home. The undefeated Huskies and star quarterback Michael Pennix are very good. However, they haven’t exactly been blowing away the competition of late. As a matter of fact, their last 4 wins have all come by 9 points or fewer. That includes the last 2 versus Arizona State (2-6) and Stanford (2-6). Give me USC plus points.

Kansas @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 379-380

Play On: Kansas +3.0

Everyone and their Uncle are banking on the fact that Kansas (6-2/.750) is going to in for an emotional letdown after upsetting undefeated Oklahoma at home last Saturday. On most occasions I would agree with that logic, but not in this instance. Yes, Iowa State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Nonetheless, those victories came over TCU, Cincinnati (2-6), and Baylor (2-5). This is also an Iowa State team that lost to the Ohio Bobcats earlier this season and was blown out by 50-20 against Oklahoma. Additionally, since 2021, Iowa State has gone 1-6 SU when facing fellow Big 12 Conference teams with a win percentage of .750 or better. Give me Kansas plus points.

Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Maryland +9.0

#9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests.

Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points.

Jacksonville State @ South Carolina 12:00 PM ET

Game# 331-332

Play On: Jacksonville State +15.5

This will be the largest crowd that Jacksonville State will play in front of all year. The Jaguars enter this matchup versus a team from the mighty SEC with a stellar 7-2 record and this game has far greater meaning to them as opposed to South Carolina. Afterall, the Gamecocks are taking a break from their hear of their SEC schedule to face an opponent who’s a first year FBS participant. Additionally, it’s not like the Gamecocks (2-6) carry a lot of momentum with them heading into this contest considering they’re currently on a 4-game losing streak. It’s also worth noting, Jacksonville State is at a +9 turnover differential this season while South Carolina is -6. Give me Jacksonville State plus points.

Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 405-406

Play On: Kansas State +3.5

Considering Texas is without their starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, and how both teams have performed during recent game, I strongly believe the underdog is the better team at this juncture. To be clear, I didn’t say the more talented squad, but the better team. Kansas State has lost the last 6 versus Texas, but 5 of those 6 contests were decided by 7 points or fewer. Since Quinn Ewers went down with an injury, the Texas offense has put up pedestrian numbers of 362 and 354 total yards in those 2 games which is well below their season average of 454.4. Since being upset at Oklahoma State, #25 Kansas State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outscored their opponents (Houston, Texas Tech, TCU) by a cumulative score of 120-24. Give me Kansas State plus points.

Arkansas @ Florida 12:00 PM ET

Game# 399-400

Play On: Florida -3.0

The public has hammered the underdog Razorbacks in this contest to the point this line went from 5.5 to 3.5 over the last 24 hours. Granted. Arkansas has been a tough luck team this season when considering that 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. Nonetheless, all 6 of those defeats have come over their previous 6 games. The Razorbacks have found ways to lose games they deserved to win on a couple of occasions. When teams are stuck in that mode for a prolonged period, they become mentally fragile. Furthermore, the Razorbacks offense has been anemic over their last 4 contests while averaging a mere 16.5 points scored and 227.5 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Florida Gators team that’s a perfect 4-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 23.5 points per game and includes an upset win over #19 Tennessee. I’ll be in the minority with this pick, but that’s perfectly fine with me. Give me Florida minus points.

Boston College @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Boston College +3.0

Syracuse has been consistent with their recent trend under current head coach Dino Babers on getting off to fast starts while facing a soft schedule, and then tailing off once getting into the heart of ACC action. The Orange began the season 4-0 while facing opponents the likes of Colgate (2-5), Western Michigan (3-6), Purdue (2-6), and Army (2-6). Since that time, they’ve gone 0-4 SU&ATS while being outscored by 29.0 points and outgained by 298.8 yards per game. The low point may have come in last week’s 38-10 loss against an average at best Virginia Tech team where they were outgained in total yards by a decisive margin of 528-138. They’ve scored 14 points or fewer and amassed 286 yards or less of total offense in each of those 4 losses.

Conversely, Boston College enters this week on a 4-game win streak and is just 1 victory shy of bowl eligibility. The Eagles have already far exceeded College Football so-called expert’s preseason predictions. The Eagles are coming off a 21-14 home win over Connecticut in a game they outgained the Huskies 433-222 and wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.

Any College Football away team like Boston College that’s won 4 or more games in a row and their previous victory came by 9 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Syracuse who’s lost 4 or more consecutive games in a row, and their last defeat came by 6 points or more while also allowing 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 26-2 SU (92.3%) since 1986. The SU betting angle takes on added value since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me Boston College plus points.

Colorado State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET

Game# 161-162

Play On: Air Force -14.0

Any conference away favorite like Air Force of between 12.0 and 21.0 with a win percentage of .500 or better who’s playing after Game 7 and is coming off a win in which they allowed 31 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Colorado State who has a losing record and is coming off an ATS cover, resulted in those away favorites going 33-4 ATS (89.1%) since 2014. Give me Air Force minus points.

Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 163-164

Play On: Wyoming +5.0

Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points.

UL-Lafayette @ South Alabama 5:00 PM ET

Game# 205-206

Play On: UL-Lafayette +11.0

Any conference away underdog of between 4.5 and 13.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like UL-Lafayette, and they’re playing in Games 6 through 9, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss by 19 points or fewer, resulted in those away underdogs going 31-1 ATS (96.8%) since 2016. Those underdogs also won 20 of those 32 games outright. Give me UL-Lafayette plus the points.

Virginia @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET

Game# 131-132

Play On: Miami -18.5

Miami is coming off an impressive 28-20 win over Clemson. Virginia is coming off a massive 31-27 upset win over undefeated North Carolina and did so as a 24.0-point home underdog. Additionally, it was the 1st win over an FBS opponent by Virginia this season. This creates a rare betting situation that shows teams like Virginia fall from grace extremely quickly in their next game after pulling off a stunner of this magnitude. Any College Football away underdog of between 10.0 and 35.0 that’s playing before Game 12 and is coming off an away underdog of 17.0 or more SU win in which they scored 21 points or greater, versus an opponent like Miami who is coming off a SU win, resulted in those away underdogs going 0-7 ATS since 1987. The average margin of defeat in those contests came by an enormous 39.3 points per game.

Mississippi State @ Auburn 3:30 PM ET

Game# 197-198

Play On: Mississippi State +6.5

Mississippi State is coming off a 7-3 upset win at Arkansas in a game they closed as a 7.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 4-3 (.571). The Bulldogs are now 13-9 SU in their last 22 games. Auburn will enter this SEC battle on a 4-game losing streak and their season record is currently 3-4 (.428).

Any College Football away underdog of between 1.5 to 7.5 like Mississippi State who’s coming off a conference away underdog SU win, they have a win percentage of .555 or better and won 11 or more of their last 22 games, versus an opponent like Auburn who has a win percentage of .714 or worse, resulted in those road underdogs going 20-0 ATS since 2003. Those underdogs also won 14 of those 20 games outright. Give me Mississippi State plus points.

Houston @ Kansas State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 189-190

Play On: Kansas State -17.0

Any College Football home favorite of between 10.5 and 19.5 like Kansas State that’s playing after Game 4 that’s coming off a conference SU win by 7 or more in which they scored 35 points or greater, versus an opponent like Houston coming off a conference SU loss by 7 or less in which they allowed 24 points or greater, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 16 contests came by a decisive margin of 27.2 points per game. Give me Kansas State minus points.

Georgia State @ Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET

Game# 113-114

Play On: Georgia State +1.5

Georgia Southern is 5-2 but failed to cover in their last 2 games. Throughout their previous 3 games, the Georgia Southern defense has allowed 32.3 points and 427.0 yards per game.

Georgia State enters this contest with a stellar 6-1 record which includes going 3-0 SU&ATS on the road. In a game between 2 seemingly even matched teams, it could simply come down to who wins the turnover battle. Georgia State has committed just 7 turnovers in 7 games this season. Conversely, Georgia Southern has committed 7 during just their 2 last games alone, and has an alarming high 17 giveaways on the season. Georgia State is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 conference away games when the point-spread was between +6.0 and -6.0.

Any College Football team like Georgia State with a point-spread between +8.5 to -8.5 who has a winning record, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win, versus an opponent like Georgia Southern that has a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those teams like Georgia State going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average line for those winning teams in that exact situation was -1.8 and they won by an average of 15.6 points per contest. Give me Georgia State.

Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: UNLV -7.0

UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games.

Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points.

Central Michigan @ Ball State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 355-356

Play On: Central Michigan -5.5

Ball State is 0-6 SU this season when facing FBS opponents and were an uninspiring 1-4-1 ATS during those contests. They lost those 6 games by a substantial average of 24.7 points per contest. Central Michigan is coming off a 17-10 home win over Akron.

Any college football away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 like Central Michigan with a winning record that’s coming off a SU win in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, and they’re playing after Game 3, resulted in those away favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2014. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by 20.8 points per game. Give me Central Michigan minus points.

Wisconsin @ Illinois 3:30 PM ET

Game# 365-366

Play On: Illinois +3.0

Wisconsin is coming off a 15-6 home loss to Iowa that dropped their season record to 4-2 (.667). Adding insult to injury was the Wisconsin starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai leaving the game with a broken hand and is out for Saturday’s game.  Illinois is coming off a momentum building 27-24 win at Marland and did so as a sizable 13.0-point underdog.

Any home pick or underdog of 2.5 or less, versus an opponent win percentage of .600 to .800 that’s coming off a SU loss, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory during those 10 contests came to an average of 7.8 points per game. Give me Illinois plus points.

Minnesota @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET

Game# 369-370

Play On: Minnesota +4.0

This qualifies as the fishiest line of the week. When that occurs, I almost always go against what seemingly is the obvious choice. Iowa is coming off a 15-6 upset win at Wisconsin. However, the Hawkeyes offense struggled once again while racking up just 237 yards of total offense of which 82 of those came on a 2nd quarter touchdown run. So basically, taking away that long jaunt the Hawkeyes amassed a mere 155 yards on 61 offensive plays with comes to a pathetic average of 2.5 yards gained per play. Minnesota is just 3-3 yet are just a 3.5-point underdog against the #24 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes who are 6-1. It must be noted that 2 of the Golden Gophers 3 losses came at the hands of #2 Michigan (7-0) and #10 North Carolina (6-0). If it loos too good to be true in sports betting more times than not it is. This is one of those times. Give me Minnesota plus points.

Penn State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 325-326

Play On: Ohio State -4.5

Both teams will enter this contest with identical 6-0 records. Public sports bettors have overwhelmingly sided with the underdog Penn State Nittany Lions thus far. Yet, the line has jumped from 4.0 to 5.0 which surely indicates a sharp money move. Ohio State has won the last 6 times they faced Penn State while winning by an average of 8.0 points per game.

Any college football home favorite of 7.0 or less that has a win percentage of .833 or better that’s playing before Game 9 like Ohio State, and they’re coming off a win by 9 points or more, versus an opponent like Penn State with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin came by 11.7 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points.

Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET

Game# 137-138

Play On: Missouri +2.5

Kentucky went into last week’s matchup with #1 Georgia with high hopes. After all, they were undefeated and looked impressive while doing so. Nevertheless, they were thoroughly exposed in a 51-13 defeat and allowed Georgia to amass 6608 total yards and average a whopping 8.3 yards per offensive play. They’ll have their hands full again when facing a Missouri offense that’s averaging 37.0 points scored and 533.7 yards per game. The Tigers are also averaging a superb 7.8 yards per offensive play that speaks to their big play ability. Missouri’s defense can be vulnerable at times, but Kentucky lacks the potent passing game that can make them pay.  During their 3 SEC contests, Kentucky has averaged a mere 134.0 yards passing per game and completed just 45.3% of their aerial attempts. Give me Missouri plus points.

Wyoming @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET

Game# 181-182

Play On: Air Force -11.0

Wyoming is coming off a home 24-19 upset win over then #24 Fresno State last week which improved their season record to 5-1. Despite that stellar record, Wyoming is outgained by an average of 49.5 yards per game. That indicates to me they’re not as good as their record indicates.

Air Force is 5-0 and coming off a bye week. Their last game was a 49-10 blowout win over San Diego State. Air Force has dominated the opposition in those 5 wins while outgaining them by 187.6 yards and outscoring them by 25.4 points per game. The Falcons will be out for revenge stemming from a 17-14 loss at Wyoming last season. The Falcons are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 21.0 and with an average victory margin of 29.4 points per game. Give me Air Force minus the points.

Iowa @ Wisconsin 4:00 PM ET

Game# 201-202

Play On: Wisconsin -9.0

Wisconsin is coming off last week’s 24-13 home win over Rutgers that improved their season record to 4-1.  That outcome also put them on a 3-game win streak in which they had a +7 turnover margin differential. Iowa is 5-1 but not nearly as good as their record indicates, and especially so on the offensive side of the ball where they average just 21.8 points and 250.5 yards per contest. Wisconsin will be seeking revenge stemming for a 24-10 loss at Iowa a year ago. The Hawkeyes are coming of a 20-14 win over Purdue. Comparatively, Wisconsin was a 38-17 blowout winner at Purdue earlier this season. Give me Wisconsin minus points.

Texas A&M vs. Tennessee 3:30 PM ET

Game# 131-132

Play On: Tennessee -3.0

For starters, Tennessee will enter this game in Knoxville on Saturday riding a 13-game home win streak which saw them also go an extremely profitable 9-2 ATS when facing FBS opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 28.0 or less and with a substantial average victory margin of 33.6 points per game. Conversely, Texas A&M has lost 7 consecutive true road games and failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. Tennessee will also have the luxury of coming off a bye week. Compared to Texas A&M who lost a hard-fought battle with Alabama that saw them fall short in a 28-22 defeat. Rest and emotional edge favors Tennessee. Give me Tennessee minus points.

BYU @ TCU 3:30 PM ET

Game# 197-198

Play On: TCU -4.5

Despite TCU being a mediocre 3-3, they find themselves as a touchdown favorite at home for this Saturday’s game versus a BYU team which is 4-1. There’s some deception when looking inside each team’s number as it relates to their records. BYU is at an average of -38.4 yards per game but still managed to win 4 of 5. Conversely, TCU is at an average of +104.3 points per game which indicates they’re better than just a 3-3 team. The Horned Frogs are coming off a disappointing 27-14 loss at Iowa State in a game they closed as a 6.0-point favorite. They were plagued by a -4-turnover differential in that contest. Since being torched by Colorado in their season opener, the TCU defense has steadily improved to the point where they’re allowing only 17.4 points and 326.2 yards per game over their previous 5 contests.

Any College Football home favorite of 3.0 to 10.5 like TCU that’s playing before Game 8 of the season and they’re coming off a away favorite SU loss by 16 points or fewer in which they scored 29 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 ATS since 2019. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me TCU minus points.

Fresno State @ Utah State 8:00 PM ET

Game# 179-180

Play On: Utah State +4.5

Fresno State is coming off a 24-19 loss at Wyoming last seek to drop their season record to 5-1. However, that 5-1 record is a bit deceiving since they barely escaped with a 34-31 home win over an FCS team in Eastern Washington, and their other 4 wins came over opponents (Purdue, Kent State, Nevada, Arizona State) who are a combined 2-18 SU this season versus FBS opponents.

Utah State is coming off back-to-back wins to improve their season record to 3-3. Additionally, Utah State has now gone 16-12 in their last 28 at home which comes into play with our betting angle applied to this pick. During their previous 3 contests, the Aggies averaged 38.7 points scored and 518.3 yards of total offense per game. During that identical stretch, the Utah State defense forced 11 turnovers which is terrific. Last Saturday they were a convincing 44-24 home winner over Colorado State and did so as a closing 3.0-point underdog.

Any College Football home team like Utah State with a win percentage of .700 or worse that’s playing between Games 5 through 9, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or greater, and they’ve won 15 or more of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent like Fresno State coming off a SU loss by 5 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 23.5 points per game. Give me Utah State plus points.

Liberty @ Jacksonville State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Jacksonville State +7.0

This is an attractive Conference USA matchup that pits the 6-0 Liberty Flames against the 5-1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks. The home underdog Gamecocks are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games with a massive +10 turnover differential. Furthermore, Jacksonville State is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season while allowing only a combined 17 points.

Any College Football home underdog of 3.0 to 7.5 (Jacksonville State) that’s playing after Game 3 with a win percentage of .800 or better, and they’re coming off a conference SU win, versus an opponent (Liberty) with a winning record and coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.1%) since 2018.  The home underdogs also went 15-2 SU in those 17 situations as well. Give me Jacksonville State plus points.

Oregon State @ California 10:00 PM ET

Game# 381-382

Play On: California +9.5

I’m predicting a flat spot here for #15 Oregon State. They’re coming off 2 extremely tough games versus #13 Washington State and #18 Utah. Now they’re about to face an unranked California team that’s just 3-2 and has been irrelevant on the national landscape or even PAC-1 picture2 for quite a long time. However, Cal has forced 13 turnovers in their first 5 games and look for them to cause a few more on Saturday in what I’m forecasting as a mentally and emotional vulnerable spot for the visiting Beavers. The Bears offense is capable of having a productive game in this spot considering they amassed 502 yards of total offense versus #7 Washington just 2 weeks ago. The Bears are coming off a 24-21 home win over Arizona State last week. Cal has also won 3 of their last 4 at home versus Oregon State.

Any conference home underdog of 2.5 to 11.5 like California that’s coming off a home win by 3 points or less, and they’re playing before Game 7 of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-1 ATS since 2009. The home underdogs also won 12 of those 18 games SU. Give me California plus points.

Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET

Game# 393-394

Play On: Texas A&M +1.5

Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban.

Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. 

Washington State @ UCLA 3:00 PM ET

Game# 379-380

Play On: UCLA -3.0

Washington State is 4-0, coming off a bye week, but comes up as a road underdog versus an unranked UCLA team. Speaking of the Bruins, they’re coming off their first loss of the season at Utah 14-7. They lost that contest despite holding the UTES to just 219 yards of total offense. Speaking of the UCLA defense, they’ve held opponents to 11.0 points and 263.8 yards per game during their 3-1 start. Even more impressive is they’ve held their first 4 opponents to a paltry average of 3.8 yards per play. Washington State is coming off 3 consecutive home game and an emotional 38-35 win over #15 Oregon State (5-1). Give me UCLA minus points.

LSU @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET

Game# 357-358

Play On: LSU -4.5

We have a 2-loss team in LSU (3-2) that’s a road favorite versus nationally ranked and undefeated Missouri (5-0). Yet, it’s LSU that comes up favorite in this spot. As a result, it comes as no surprise to me that public betting has heavily sides with the home underdog Missouri Tigers. If I said it once then I’ll say it a million times. When it comes to betting situations such as these think like oddsmakers because they’re not in the business of being generous to sports bettors. Additionally, Missouri won’t be able to stop LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and the explosive LSU passing game which has amassed 320 yards or more through the air in each of their 5 games played this season. Daniels has thrown for 16 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions and is averaging 342.0 yards passing per game. He’s also rushed for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Conversely, Missouri has allowed 281.7 yards passing per game over their last 3 contests. Give me LSU minus points.

Nebraska @ Illinois 8:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Nebraska +3.5

Nebraska has rushed for 209 yards per game and averaged a healthy 5.5 yards per attempt. The Cornhuskers have also been adept at stopping the run as opponents are averaging only 2.9 yards per attempt against them. On the other hand, Illinois has allowed 164 yards or more rushing in 4 of 5 games this season. Illinois committed 11 turnovers in their first 4 games. After turning the ball over 4 times in each of their first 2 games, Nebraska has somewhat rid themselves of the turnover bugaboo and committed just 2 giveaways over their previous 3 games.

Nebraska is coming off a 45-7 home loss to #2 ranked Michigan which dropped their season record to 2-3. Illinois enters this contest with an identical 2-3 season record. This sets a 100% College Football betting angle. Any College Football conference away underdog of between 2.0 to 5.5 that’s playing in Games 4 through 10 who is coming off a home loss by 18 points or more, and both teams in the matchup have losing records, resulted in those conference away underdogs with that specific point-spread parameter going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by 8.1 points per game. Give me Nebraska plus points.

Kansas @ Texas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: Texas -16.0

I had Kansas last Saturday as my Game of the Week and they won and covered 31-20 as a 9.5-point home favorite over BYU. However, I was extremely fortunate for a few reasons. I was the beneficiary of not 1 but 2 defensive touchdowns by the Jayhawks. I was also able to cover despite BYU quarterback Kedon Slovis throwing for 357 yards. Unfortunately for Kansas, they’ll be facing a far stronger opponent this week in #3 Texas (4-0). Even with #24 Kansas (4-0) being unbeaten and nationally ranked themselves, they find themselves as a substantial double-digit underdog. This appears to me to be a trap where the underdog is a very attractive option. However, I’m electing to go with a contrarian mindset in this one. By the way, if you are worried about Texas playing archrival and unbeaten Oklahoma next, then don’t be. Texas has gone 2-0 SUU&ATS the last 2 seasons in the game before facing the Sooners while covering as a favorite on each occasion. This is also a far better Texas team than those past 2 versions were. It’s also worth noting, Texas has scored 50 points or more in their last 3 games versus Kansas. Give me Texas minus points.

Baylor @ UCF 3:30 PM ET

Game# 135-136

Play On: UCF -10.5

Emotions will be high on Saturday afternoon in Orlando as Central Florida hosts their first ever Big 12 Conference game. The Golden Knights will also be out to atone for a disappointing 44-31 loss at Kansas State last week in a game they allowed 536 yards. UCF has an explosive offense which averages 38.3 points scored and 565.0 yards per game. The Golden Knights will be in a prime spot to make an impression against a Baylor team that’s 0-3 this season versus FBS opponents and allowed 440.3 yards per game.

Any College Football favorite of 10.0 to 21.0-points like UCF that allowed 478 yards or more in their previous game, and they average 44o yards or more of total offense per game, versus an opponent like Baylor that allows 440.0 or more yards per contest, resulted in those home favorites going 45-17 ATS (72.6%) since 2014 and 16-4 ATS (80%) since 2017. Give me UCF minus points.

Illinois @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET

Game# 181-182

Play On: Purdue +1.0

Illinois is 2-2 but they’ve been far from impressive. Granted their losses have come versus national ranked team in Penn State by 17 and Kansas by 11. However, they escaped with home wins of 30-28 versus Toledo and 23-17 over Florida Atlantic. Purdue is 1-3 including 0-3 at home. However, they killed themselves with a combined 7 turnovers in double-digit loss to Syracuse (4-0) and Wisconsin (3-1). They had no trouble moving the ball in those defeats while amassing 396 yards of total offense versus Wisconsin and 403 against Syracuse. The good news is they’ll be facing an Illinois team that’s a turnover differential of -6 in their first 4 games and their defense is allowing 423.3 yards per contest. This is a very winnable game for the Boilermakers and especially so at home. Give me Purdue.

Utah @ Oregon State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 117-118

Play On: Oregon State -3.5

Oregon State is coming off a 38-35 at #16 Washington State in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. The loss dropped the #19 ranked Beavers season record to 3-1. It doesn’t get any easier this week versus #10 Utah (4-0). The Beavers are 18-10 SU in their last 28 at home. However, Oregon State is 14-1 in their previous 15 at home. That includes 5-0 SU&ATS as a conference favorite with an average victory margin of 19.8 points per game.

Any college football conference home favorite of 14.5 or less Like Oregon State that’s playing in Game 3 through 10 and they’re coming off a conference favorite SU loss in which they scored 35 points or fewer, and they won 24 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .362 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests came by an average of 21.0 points per game. Give me Oregon State minus points.

Ohio State @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET

Game# 423-424

Play On: Notre Dame +3.5

Notre Dame will be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s 21-10 loss at Ohio State. This time around they’re playing at home and with a huge difference in their quality of starting quarterback Sam Hartman compared to what they had under center a season ago. During Notre Dame’s 4-0 start, Hartman completed 71.1% of his passes for 1061 yards and 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while also running for 2 scores as well. Notre Dame is 36-3 SU in their last 39 at home and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 2.5 or greater. Additionally, Notre Dame is 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 at home with a point-spread parameter of -9.5 to +5.5.

Any non-conference College Football undefeated home underdog of between 2.5 to 5.5 that’s coming off 4 or more consecutive SU wins, and their previous game was versus a non-conference opponent, versus an opponent like Ohio State that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1993 and with an average victory margin of 9.3 points per game. Give me Notre Dame plus points.

Oregon State @ Washington State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Washington State +3.0

Washington State is coming off a 64-21 win over Northern Colorado. Both teams enter this matchup with a perfect 3-0 record. Washington State has won their last 4 meetings versus Oregon State when playing at home.

Any conference undefeated home team which is +3.0 to -3.0 like Washington State who’s playing after Game 3 of their season, and they allowed 33 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an undefeated opponent like Oregon State coming off a win by 7-points or more, resulted in those home teams going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2010. Those home teams were also 16-4 SU during those contests.

Any College Football home underdog of +3.0 to +6.0 with a win percentage of .800 or better like Washington State, and they’re playing after Game 3 of their season, and they’re coming off 2 or more wins in a row with the last of which coming by 15 points or more, versus an opponent like Oregon State who has a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home underdogs with those point-spread parameters going 12-0 ATS and 11-1 SU since 2014. The only SU loss by those home dogs came by 1-point. Give me Washington State plus points.

Colorado @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET

Game# 371-372

Play On: Oregon -21.0

Colorado has been a nice story since Deion Sanders took over as head coach while guiding them to a terrific 3-0 start and #19 national ranking. The Buffaloes biggest weakness right now is their defense which has surrendered 35 points and 499 yards to Colorado State and 42 points and 541 yards to TCU but still managed to win both contests. On a positive note the Buffaloes defense has forced 7 turnovers in their 3 wins. The bad news, Oregon has yet to commit a turnover this season and averages 58.0 points and 587 totals yards per game. Even with their 3-0 record, Colorado is only +19.7 yards per game while the 3-0 Ducks are +301.7 yards per contest. Granted Colorado has played the much tougher schedule thus far, but their stop unit will be hard pressed to stop quarterback Bo Nix and the explosive Oregon offense. Give me Oregon minus the points.

BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 343-344

Play On: Kansas -9.5   

BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest.

Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday.

Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week.

Auburn @ Texas A&M 12:00 PM ET

Game# 407-408

Play On: Texas A&M -8.0

Auburn is 3-0 but keep in mind that their 3 wins came over California, Massachusetts, and Samford. Furthermore, they were extremely lucky in the 14-10 win at California due to the Golden Bears missing 3 field goals and Auburn accumulating just 230 yards of total offense. Furthermore, Auburn committed an alarmingly high 7 turnover through their 3 games played. Additionally, since 2021, Auburn is 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive wins and was outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Texas A&M is 2-1 with their only loss coming at #20 Miami 48-33. The Aggies have scored 33 points or more in each of their 3 games this season. Since 2018, Texas A&M is 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 4.5 to 11.0 following a SU win and with an average victory margin of 16.5 points per game. Give me Texas A&M minus points.

Boise State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Boise State -6.0

San Diego State is 2-2 but is coming off 2 consecutive losses to #22 UCLA 35-10 and #14 Oregon State 26-9. Boise State is 1-2 but their losses came at #8 Washington and by 2 at home to a very good Central Florida team. The Aztecs have played the more difficult schedule thus far but the oddsmakers were undeterred by that factor and Boise State opened as a touchdown road favorite. I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more so than any other source.

Any College Football conference away favorite of between and 3.5 to 9.0-points versus an opponent like San Diego State that’s coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 10 points or fewer on each occasion, and they have at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those conference away favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by a decisive 21.9 points per game. Give me Boise State minus the points.

Fresno State at Arizona State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 209-210

Play On: Fresno State -3.0

Fresno State went on the road in their season opener and came away with an impressive 39-35 upset win over Purdue. That result certainly wasn’t a fluke when considering the Bulldogs outgained their Big 10 opponent in total yards by a wide margin of 487-363. Now they’ll be facing another Power 5 Conference team on the road this week as they’ll take on Arizona State. Sandwiched between those 2 games was last week’s home opener versus Eastern Washington in which they escaped with a 34-31 win despite being a massive 30.0-point favorite. With all considered, I’ll give them a pass for being flat in that contest. They’ll be facing an Arizona State team that’s coming off a 27-15 home loss to Oklahoma State in a game they were held to a mere 277 yards of total offense and failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The Sun Devils opened the season with an uninspiring 24-21 home win over Southern Utah who’s an FCS team and were nearly upset as a 34.5-point favorite. Give me Fresno State as a point-spread favorite.

Since 2011, road teams like Fresno State in Game 2 through 6 that are coming off a home game in which both teams scored 31 points or more, and they’re +3.0 to -3.0 on the point-spread, versus an opponent like Arizona State that’s coming off an underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road teams going 9-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me Fresno State as a point spread favorite.

South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 159-160

Play On: South Alabama +7.5

This certainly seems like a fishy line to me. We have a Power 5 Conference school in Oklahoma State that’s 2-0 as just a touchdown favorite at home versus a 1-1 South Alabama team from the Sun Belt Conference. The truth of the matter is South Alabama is a highly experienced team that won 10 games a season ago. They ran into a buzzsaw in their season opening loss at Tulane in a game they were derailed by committing 5 turnovers. Oklahoma State opened the season with a listless 27-13 home win versus Central Arkansas who plays at the FCS level in a game they allowed their opponent to rack up 391 yards of total offense. I wouldn’t be shocked to get the outright upset in this one, but we won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me South Alabama as a point-spread underdog.

Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: Florida +6.5

Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112.

College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points.

Iowa State @ Ohio 12:00 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Ohio +3.0

We have a Big 12 team like Iowa State as just na 3.0-point road favorite versus a Mid America Conference team. If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, then most of the time it is. This is a textbook example of such in my eyes. Iowa State has been borderline anemic offensively through their first 2 games. I’ll give them a pass in last week’s 20-13 loss at Iowa in which they amassed just 290 yards of offense against a Hawkeye defense which is among the best in college football during recent seasons. However, in their season opening 30-9 home win over Northern Iowa who plays at the FCS level they had a mere 250 yards of total offense. The Cyclones will be up against an Ohio Bobcats defense which has allowed only 13.3 points and 233.3 yards per game throughout their first 3 games.

Ohio star quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to the line in last week’s 17-10 upset win at FAU. Rourke was knocked out of the game during 1st half action in their season opening 20-13 loss at San Diego State. The Bobcats backup quarterback tossed 3 interceptions in that contest which ultimately cost Ohio the game. Since the start of last season Rourke has thrown 26 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions and passed for over 3500 yards. Give me Ohio plus points.

Army @ UTSA 7:00 PM ET

Game# 111-112

Play On: Army +9.0

UTSA was somewhat disappointing in their first 2 games. They began the season with a 17-14 loss at Houston in a game they closed as a 2.5-point favorite. That’s the same Houston team that was upset at Rice last week. They followed that up with another listless performance by defeating Texas State 20-13 at home but failed to cover as a 14.0-point favorite. They outgained both those opponents by a combined 789-551 in total yards. However, they turned the ball over 4 times and failed to force a turnover in either contest.

Army will be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA last season. The Black Knights dropped their season opener 17-13 at UL-Monroe in a game they were plagued by 5 turnovers in a contest they closed as an 8.5-point favorite. They bounced back with a convincing 57-0 home win last week over Delaware State who plays at the FCS level. The Black Knights offense has been run heavy for quite some time now as they run the triple option. However, they’ve shown a willingness to throw the ball in the first 2 games while amassing 27 pass attempts and gained 345 yards in the air. As a matter of fact, Army had an extremely uncharacteristically high 304 yards passing in their loss to UTSA last season.

Any non-conference away underdog of 3.0 to 10.0-points who’s not coming off a bye week like Army that’s playing with revenge and coming off a SU win by 4 points or more, versus an opponent like UTSA coming off a win in which they failed to cover, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-0-1 ATS since 1995. They also won 10 of those 14 games straight up. Give me Army plus the points.

Wisconsin @ Washington State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 325-326

Play On: Washington State +6.0

Washington State is coming off a 50-24 win at Colorado State and covered easily as an 8.5-point favorite. On the other hand, Wisconsin is coming off a 38-17 home win over Buffalo in their season opener last Saturday. The Badgers failed to cover as a 27.5-point favorite in a game they led just 14-10 at the half.

Home teams coming off a straight up win by 49 points or less in which they scored 50 points or more like Washington State, and they’re facing a team like Wisconsin who is coming off a win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 25-1 ATS (96%). Those home teams also went 23-3 SU as well. Considering this betting angle backs the home team that’s the underdog, then the SU results take on even added significance. Give me Washington State plus points.

Texas @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET

Game# 383-384

Play On: Alabama -7.0

Alabama is coming off a 56-7 non-conference win over Middle Tennessee State. Texas is coming off a 37-10 win over Rice.

Any home favorite of 6.5 or greater like Alabama that’s coming off a non-conference SU win by 49 points or less, and they scored 50 points or more in that win, versus an opponent like Texas that’s coming off a SU win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a massive 37.3 points per game. Give me Alabama minus points.

Oregon @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM ET

Game# 359-360

Play On: Texas Tech +6.5

Texas Tech is coming off a 35-33 overtime loss at Wyoming in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. Oregon is coming off an 81-7 blowout win over an FCS team in Portland State.

Any home underdog of 1.5 to 7.0-points like Texas Tech that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or greater SU loss, and their playing in Games 2 through 9, versus an opponent like Oregon that’s coming off a win by 9 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 13-0 ATS since 1987. Additionally, those home underdogs won 12 of those 13 games SU. Give me Texas Tech plus points.

Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0

Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico.

Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points.

Illinois @ Kansas 7:30 PM ET

Game# 351-352

Play On: Illinois +3.0

The Illini are coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. Conversely Kansas toyed with Missouri State who plays at the FCS level during last week’s 48-17 win.

Since 1985, any College Football non-conference away underdog of 6.5 or less like Illinois, that’s coming off a non-conference win by 3 points or fewer in which they failed to cover as a home favorite, and they won 11-games or fewer the season before, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 ATS. The away underdogs also won 11 of those 12 games straight up. Give me Illinois plus points.

Clemson @ Duke 8:00 PM ET

Game# 235-236

Play On: Duke +13.0

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, Clemson is superior athletically and has more overall team speed than Duke.  They annually have one of the top recruiting classes in the country and has produced a plethora of NFL players during head coach’s Dabo Swinney’s tenure which hasn’t been the case at Duke. Okay, now let’s move on to just this game and who will cover the spread.

Duke enjoyed a 9-4 season under 1st year head coach Mike Elko in 2022. The year was capped off with a convincing 30-13 win over UCF in a bowl game. The Blue Devils 4 losses all came by 8 points or fewer. Furthermore, 3 of those 4 defeats came by 3 points or less. Duke is only 13-15 in their last 28 at home but was 5-1 last season. Duke returns 18 starters from last year’s successful team including star quarterback Riley Leonard. The junior was outstanding last season while throwing 2967 yards and 20 touchdowns versus 6 picks. Leonard also rushed for 699 yards and 13 touchdowns as well. Look for Leonard to be a key cog in us getting the cover.

Any College Football Game 1 home underdog of 4.0 to 16.5-points like Duke that won 8 or more regular season games the year before, and has won 9 or more of their last 28 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-0 ATS since 2010. The underdogs also won 7 of those 10 games straight up. Giver me Duke plus the points.

South Alabama @ Tulane 8:00 PM ET

Game# 219-220

Play On: South Alabama +6.5

Soth Alabama finished the 2022 regular season with an impressive 10-2 record. Their lone defeats came by just a combined 5 points. The Jaguars were 5-1 SU on the road with their lone loss coming a at UCLA 32-31 in a contest they closed as a 15.5-point underdog. They return 18 starters from that team.

Tulane had a storybook 12-2 season and AAC Championship. Additionally, that magical season concluded with a 45-28 win over UCF in their conference championship game, and a stunning New Year’s Day Bowl thrilling win over traditional college football powerhouse USC. Yet here we are 8 months later, and they’re just a touchdown favorite in their season opener at home versus a Sun Belt Conference team. They’re begging you to lay the points at home with the Green Wave. Tulane lost some very key personnel on both sides of the ball that heavily contributed to an extremely successful season.

I going with a contrarian approach in this one, and it wouldn’t shock me in the least if the underdog pulls off an outright upset. However, I won’t get greedy and take South Alabama plus points.

Florida @ Utah 8:00 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: Utah -6.0

Utah was upset in their season opener a year ago by Florida in a game that went into the very late stages of the 4th quarter before a winner was finally decided. However, all you need to do is look at the Florida Gators regular season over/under win total of 5.5. When doing so, it tells you what the sharpest minds in sports betting, which are oddsmakers, think of Florida’s chances of even reaching a in a bowl game this year, let alone beating a Top 10 caliber team in their season opener.

Utah has gone 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. Furthermore, since 10/17/2015, the Utes are a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite while playing with revenge. The average line during those 11 situations was 11.5 and the Utes outscored their opponents by an average of 18.6 points per game. If the worst-case scenario is Rising being ruled out at gametime, I still like the Utes even at this current number. Otherwise, if Rising is available, this line will move much closer or match the opening number of 9.5. Either way, give me Utah minus points.

Ohio @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 307-308

Play On: Ohio +2.5

This line jumped right off the page at me when it first came out. Ohio as a short road favorite versus a Mountain West football program with a fine winning tradition. However, upon further review, this is an Ohio team that went 10-4 last season, reached the MAC Championship Game, and beat another Mountain West Conference team in a bowl game by way of a 30-27 win over Wyoming. They finished the season on a 8-1 winning run. Ohio returns 9 starters on offense including quarterback Kurtis Rourke and 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year a season ago that was cut short by an ACL injury in Game 11 at Ball State. However, Rourke still threw for 3256 yards with 25 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions. He also ran for 249 yards and 4 touchdowns as well. Since 9/23/17, Ohio has gone 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.0 or less and won by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Ohio plus points.

Utah vs. Penn State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 283-284

Play On: Utah +1.5 (5*)

Penn State ended the regular season on a 4-game win streak to improve its record to 10-2 (.833). However, in their 2 marquee games this season they lost to Michigan 41-17 and at home to Ohio State 44-31. The Nittany Lions allowed a combined 1015 yards in those defeats. They’ll be facing a Utah team in the Rose Bowl that’s one of just a handful of college football squads that can match or exceed their physicality.

Since Kyle Whittingham took over as head coach Utah, the Utes have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in either bowl games of Conference Championship contests. That includes 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU if their point-spread was -2.5 to +9.5 in those postseason games. Utah is coming off USC 47-24 as a 2.5-point underdog in the PAC-12 Championship Game that improved their season record 10-3 (.769).

College Football teams like Utah who have a point-spread parameter of +2.5 to -2.5 +2.5 and are playing after Game 10 with a win percentage of .857 or less, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win by 7 points or greater in which they scored 35 points or more, versus opponents like Penn State that have a win percentage of better than .600, resulted in those teams going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2001.

Give me Utah over Penn State.

Tulane vs. USC 1:00 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Tulane +2.5 (5*)

This line jumped right off the screen at me when it first came out. We have mighty USC who blew a sure College Football Playoff invite when they fell to Utah in the PAC-12 Championship Game. Now they’re less than a field goal favorite with little to no line movement off the opener while facing Tulane from a Group-Of-5 Conference (AAC). The totality of those previous 3 sentences speaks volumes to me. As a result, and just like I expected public perception will be askew when assessing who to take in this game. The consensus obvious choice would be USC and especially for those looking through a narrow lens. The Green Wave are for real. They defeated Big 12 champion Kansas State on the road earlier this season. That’s the same Kansas State that beat TCU (13-1) in their Conference Championship Game. By the way, TCU will be playing Georgia for College Football National Championship Game on January 9th.

Enough said, give me Tulane plus the small number.

Ohio State vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Ohio State +6.0 (10*)

Fresh in the minds of many is Ohio State’s embarrassing home blowout loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes allowed 45 points and 542 yards in that defeat. Despite that poor defensive showing, the Buckeyes defense still allows just 19.3 points and 304.1 yards per game. The Georgia defense has been an elite unit for the past 2 seasons. However, LSU may have exposed a weakness in Georgia’s pass defense during the SEC Championship Game. LSU Tigers was able to rack up 502 passing yards in a loss. On the other hand, Ohio State has averaged 44.5 points and 492.8 yards per game this season. Because of those last 2 points, we have a puncher’s chance with the underdog Buckeyes explosive offense.

Give me Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kansas State vs. Alabama 12:00 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Kansas State +7.0 (5*)

Kansas State enters this Sugar Bowl matchup with mighty Alabama on an extremely high level of confidence. The Wildcats went 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 including an upset of then undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. Now they get to take on the current biggest brand name in College Football. Kansas State has been terrific offensively throughout their previous 7 contests while averaging 38.7 points scored and 442.3 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Crimson Tide defense which looked a bit vulnerable in their final 3 regular season games versus LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn. During that stretch, Alabama allowed a mere mortal 27.7 points and 388.3 yards per game.

Here's a key element in which I believe why Kansas State will at the very least keep this game close throughout. The Wildcats have an outstanding turnover margin of +14 this season. Conversely, Alabama comes in at a -4. Here’s another, Kansas State’s emotional edge over Alabama. Nick Saban has built this program to the standard that anything less than a national championship isn’t acceptable. Let alone what occurred this season where they failed to reach both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoffs. Kansas State on the other hand, will be extremely excited for this opportunity in a major bowl game and expecting to win.

Give me Kansas State plus the points.

Oklahoma vs. Florida State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 255-256

Play On: Florida State -9.5 (5*)

Oklahoma enters the bowl season with a disappointing 6-6 record under 1st year head coach Brett Venables. The Sooners were 1-6 SU and 0-7 this season in games they allowed 14 points or greater. They’ll be facing a Florida State team that hasn’t scored 14 points or fewer in any game this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma has allowed 38 points or more in 6 of its last 9 and 400 yards or greater in 8 of its previous 9 games.

Florida State is on a path of returning to the glory days in year 3 of head coach Mike Norvell’s tenure. The Seminoles finished regular season action with a stellar 9-3 record. Furthermore, they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. During this current winning streak, the Seminoles averaged 43.6 points scored and 490.6 yards per game. Florida State is also 3-0 SU&ATS this season versus non-conference FBS opponents. The Seminoles defense isn’t too shabby as well. They’re allowing just 19.7 points and 308.0 yards per game. Florida State won’t beat themselves, evidenced by them committing only 12 turnovers this season.

Give me Florida State minus the points.

Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss 2:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Texas Tech +3.5 (5*)

These teams enter the bowl season on opposite sides of the momentum meter. Texas Tech finished its regular season schedule by going 3-0 SU&ATS to end up 7-5. On the other hand, after beginning the season 7-0 and being ranked in the Top 10, Ole Miss lost 4 of its last 5, and includes a current 3-game losing streak. Despite Ole Miss coming from the powerful SEC, Texas Tech has played a slightly tougher schedule according to the metrics I use to determine that matchup element.

Give me Texas Tech plus the points.

UCF vs. Duke 2:00 PM ET

Game# 245-246

Play On: Duke -3.0 (5*)

Duke won 4 of their last 5 to finish its regular season slate 8-4. All 4 of the Blue Devils losses came by 8 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, their previous 3 defeats came by a combined 8 points. Unlike most teams this bowl season including UCF, Duke’s roster has remained intact with regards to transfer portal losses or players opting out for the 2023 NFL draft. During that 4-1 stretch to finish the regular season, Duke allowed a mere 90.6 yards rushing per game. That's not good news for UCF since they went 0-3 SU&ATS this season when rushing for less than 160 yards in a game and lost by 14.7 yards per contest. Another key element is Duke averages 33:00 in time of possession per game and is effectively balanced offensively. Lastly, Duke doesn’t beat themselves. The Blue Devils have committed 10 turnovers all season and are a +14 in turnover margin.

Give me Duke minus the points.

East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina 6:45 PM ET

Game# 241-242

Play On: East Carolina -7.0 (5*)

East Carolina has gone 6 consecutive games without committing a turnover. As a matter of fact, that had 0 turnovers in 8 of 12 games this season. After starting the season 9-1, Coastal Carolina lost it’s last 2 to Troy 45-26 and James Madison 47-7. Conversely, Coastal Carolina committed 6 turnovers in their last 3 games alone which is 1 less than East Carolina had all season.

Coastal Carolina star quarterback Grayson McCall is set to return from injury and play despite entering his name into the transfer portal. It also remains to be seen how sharp McCall will be after not seeing live action for an extended period. Additionally, successful head coach Jamey Chadwell notified the school after the Chanticleers loss in the Sun Belt Championship Game that he’ll be leaving to take the job at Liberty. Other than more money which is most always alluring, it appears to be a lateral move and certainly won’t bode well in terms of team morale.

East Carolina has an impressive passing game that averages 288 yards per contest in the air. Conversely, Coastal Carolina was last in the Sun Belt Conference in pass yards allowed. Specifically speaking, the Chanticleers allowed 278 or more passing yards in their last 5 and 9 of its previous 11 games.

Give me East Carolina minus the points.