Fresno State at Arizona State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 209-210

Play On: Fresno State -3.0

Fresno State went on the road in their season opener and came away with an impressive 39-35 upset win over Purdue. That result certainly wasn’t a fluke when considering the Bulldogs outgained their Big 10 opponent in total yards by a wide margin of 487-363. Now they’ll be facing another Power 5 Conference team on the road this week as they’ll take on Arizona State. Sandwiched between those 2 games was last week’s home opener versus Eastern Washington in which they escaped with a 34-31 win despite being a massive 30.0-point favorite. With all considered, I’ll give them a pass for being flat in that contest. They’ll be facing an Arizona State team that’s coming off a 27-15 home loss to Oklahoma State in a game they were held to a mere 277 yards of total offense and failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The Sun Devils opened the season with an uninspiring 24-21 home win over Southern Utah who’s an FCS team and were nearly upset as a 34.5-point favorite. Give me Fresno State as a point-spread favorite.

Since 2011, road teams like Fresno State in Game 2 through 6 that are coming off a home game in which both teams scored 31 points or more, and they’re +3.0 to -3.0 on the point-spread, versus an opponent like Arizona State that’s coming off an underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road teams going 9-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me Fresno State as a point spread favorite.

South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 159-160

Play On: South Alabama +7.5

This certainly seems like a fishy line to me. We have a Power 5 Conference school in Oklahoma State that’s 2-0 as just a touchdown favorite at home versus a 1-1 South Alabama team from the Sun Belt Conference. The truth of the matter is South Alabama is a highly experienced team that won 10 games a season ago. They ran into a buzzsaw in their season opening loss at Tulane in a game they were derailed by committing 5 turnovers. Oklahoma State opened the season with a listless 27-13 home win versus Central Arkansas who plays at the FCS level in a game they allowed their opponent to rack up 391 yards of total offense. I wouldn’t be shocked to get the outright upset in this one, but we won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me South Alabama as a point-spread underdog.

Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: Florida +6.5

Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112.

College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points.

Iowa State @ Ohio 12:00 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Ohio +3.0

We have a Big 12 team like Iowa State as just na 3.0-point road favorite versus a Mid America Conference team. If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, then most of the time it is. This is a textbook example of such in my eyes. Iowa State has been borderline anemic offensively through their first 2 games. I’ll give them a pass in last week’s 20-13 loss at Iowa in which they amassed just 290 yards of offense against a Hawkeye defense which is among the best in college football during recent seasons. However, in their season opening 30-9 home win over Northern Iowa who plays at the FCS level they had a mere 250 yards of total offense. The Cyclones will be up against an Ohio Bobcats defense which has allowed only 13.3 points and 233.3 yards per game throughout their first 3 games.

Ohio star quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to the line in last week’s 17-10 upset win at FAU. Rourke was knocked out of the game during 1st half action in their season opening 20-13 loss at San Diego State. The Bobcats backup quarterback tossed 3 interceptions in that contest which ultimately cost Ohio the game. Since the start of last season Rourke has thrown 26 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions and passed for over 3500 yards. Give me Ohio plus points.

Army @ UTSA 7:00 PM ET

Game# 111-112

Play On: Army +9.0

UTSA was somewhat disappointing in their first 2 games. They began the season with a 17-14 loss at Houston in a game they closed as a 2.5-point favorite. That’s the same Houston team that was upset at Rice last week. They followed that up with another listless performance by defeating Texas State 20-13 at home but failed to cover as a 14.0-point favorite. They outgained both those opponents by a combined 789-551 in total yards. However, they turned the ball over 4 times and failed to force a turnover in either contest.

Army will be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA last season. The Black Knights dropped their season opener 17-13 at UL-Monroe in a game they were plagued by 5 turnovers in a contest they closed as an 8.5-point favorite. They bounced back with a convincing 57-0 home win last week over Delaware State who plays at the FCS level. The Black Knights offense has been run heavy for quite some time now as they run the triple option. However, they’ve shown a willingness to throw the ball in the first 2 games while amassing 27 pass attempts and gained 345 yards in the air. As a matter of fact, Army had an extremely uncharacteristically high 304 yards passing in their loss to UTSA last season.

Any non-conference away underdog of 3.0 to 10.0-points who’s not coming off a bye week like Army that’s playing with revenge and coming off a SU win by 4 points or more, versus an opponent like UTSA coming off a win in which they failed to cover, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-0-1 ATS since 1995. They also won 10 of those 14 games straight up. Give me Army plus the points.

Vikings @ Eagles 8:15 PM ET

Game# 103-104

Play On: Vikings +6.5

The Eagles walked away with a 25-20 win at New England last Sunday in a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. They also covered that contest as a 4.0-point favorite to boot. New England outgained Philadelphia in total yards by a decisive margin of 382-251. The Eagles nearly squandered an early 16-0 lead and ultimately the difference came down to a pick-6 thrown by Mac Jones in the 1st quarter.

Conversely, the Vikings lost their season opener at home to Tampa Bay 20-17 in a contest by all rights they should’ve have won if not for a turnover margin of -3. Minnesota outgained Tampa Bay in total yards by a wide margin of 369-242. The Vikings will be playing with revenge stemming from a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia in ironically enough Week 2 of last season. Look for the Vikings to be not so unlucky this week and Philadelphia not as fortunate as each team was in Week 1.

Any NFL away underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 like Minnesota is that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss by 5 points or fewer, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 1.0-point or more, resulted in those away underdogs going a perfect 11-0 ATS and a compelling 10-1 SU since 1990. Give me the Vikings plus the points.

Cowboys @ Giants 8:20 PM ET

Game# 479-480

Play On: Giants +3.5

Giants head coach Brian Daboll did a terrific job last season in his first year on the job. The Giants wre 9-7-1 in regular season action and made the playoffs as a NFC Wildcard team. They then went on the road and beat a 13-4 Minnesota team 31-24 before being eliminated by defending NFC champion Philadelphia the following week. Yes, the Giants lost both regular season matchups versus Dallas last season. However, both were one score games. By the way, during Daboll’s first year as head coach in New York the Giants were a terrific 7-1 ATS as an underdog of 5.5 or less and they won 6 of those 8 contests straight up.

Since 2011, any NFL Game 1 division home underdog of between 2.5 and 5.5 like the Giants are, resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS and 9-1-1 SU. Give me the Giants plus points.

Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Chargers -3.0

I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater.

Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play.

Bengals @ Browns 1:00 PM ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Browns +2.5

Cleveland has gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 meeting versus Cincinnati  and that includes winning 5 straight at home in this divisional series.

Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Cleveland, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Browns plus points.

49ers @ Steelers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 465-466

Play On: Steelers +3.0

Under head coach Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season openers. That includes 0-2 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.0 or less. As a matter of fact, San Francisco dropped their season opener last season while suffering a 19-10 loss at Chicago in a game they close as a 6.5-point favorite, and versus a Bears team that finished the 2022-2023 season 3-14. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 season openers under current head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is also 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home when there was a total of 37.0 or greater and their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5.

Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Pittsburgh, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Steelers plus points.

Panthers @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET

Game# 453-454

Play On: Falcons -3.5

Both teams went 7-10 SU last season and split their season series with the home team winning on both occasions. The Falcons finished the season 6-2 SU in their last 8 at home. Carolina is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at Atlanta as an underdog of 3.0 or greater while losing by an average of 11.2 points per game.

Any NFL division home favorite of 4.0 or less that’s playing in their opening game that won 7 games or more during the previous season, and there’s a total of 42.5 or less, versus an opponent like Atlanta that won 6 or more games the year before, resulted in those divisional home favorites going 17-1 ATS (94.4%). Those favorites also went 18-0 SU during those contests and won by an average of 11.0 points per game. Give me the Falcons minus points.

Wisconsin @ Washington State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 325-326

Play On: Washington State +6.0

Washington State is coming off a 50-24 win at Colorado State and covered easily as an 8.5-point favorite. On the other hand, Wisconsin is coming off a 38-17 home win over Buffalo in their season opener last Saturday. The Badgers failed to cover as a 27.5-point favorite in a game they led just 14-10 at the half.

Home teams coming off a straight up win by 49 points or less in which they scored 50 points or more like Washington State, and they’re facing a team like Wisconsin who is coming off a win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 25-1 ATS (96%). Those home teams also went 23-3 SU as well. Considering this betting angle backs the home team that’s the underdog, then the SU results take on even added significance. Give me Washington State plus points.

Texas @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET

Game# 383-384

Play On: Alabama -7.0

Alabama is coming off a 56-7 non-conference win over Middle Tennessee State. Texas is coming off a 37-10 win over Rice.

Any home favorite of 6.5 or greater like Alabama that’s coming off a non-conference SU win by 49 points or less, and they scored 50 points or more in that win, versus an opponent like Texas that’s coming off a SU win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a massive 37.3 points per game. Give me Alabama minus points.

Oregon @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM ET

Game# 359-360

Play On: Texas Tech +6.5

Texas Tech is coming off a 35-33 overtime loss at Wyoming in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. Oregon is coming off an 81-7 blowout win over an FCS team in Portland State.

Any home underdog of 1.5 to 7.0-points like Texas Tech that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or greater SU loss, and their playing in Games 2 through 9, versus an opponent like Oregon that’s coming off a win by 9 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 13-0 ATS since 1987. Additionally, those home underdogs won 12 of those 13 games SU. Give me Texas Tech plus points.

Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0

Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico.

Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points.

Illinois @ Kansas 7:30 PM ET

Game# 351-352

Play On: Illinois +3.0

The Illini are coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. Conversely Kansas toyed with Missouri State who plays at the FCS level during last week’s 48-17 win.

Since 1985, any College Football non-conference away underdog of 6.5 or less like Illinois, that’s coming off a non-conference win by 3 points or fewer in which they failed to cover as a home favorite, and they won 11-games or fewer the season before, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 ATS. The away underdogs also won 11 of those 12 games straight up. Give me Illinois plus points.

Clemson @ Duke 8:00 PM ET

Game# 235-236

Play On: Duke +13.0

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, Clemson is superior athletically and has more overall team speed than Duke.  They annually have one of the top recruiting classes in the country and has produced a plethora of NFL players during head coach’s Dabo Swinney’s tenure which hasn’t been the case at Duke. Okay, now let’s move on to just this game and who will cover the spread.

Duke enjoyed a 9-4 season under 1st year head coach Mike Elko in 2022. The year was capped off with a convincing 30-13 win over UCF in a bowl game. The Blue Devils 4 losses all came by 8 points or fewer. Furthermore, 3 of those 4 defeats came by 3 points or less. Duke is only 13-15 in their last 28 at home but was 5-1 last season. Duke returns 18 starters from last year’s successful team including star quarterback Riley Leonard. The junior was outstanding last season while throwing 2967 yards and 20 touchdowns versus 6 picks. Leonard also rushed for 699 yards and 13 touchdowns as well. Look for Leonard to be a key cog in us getting the cover.

Any College Football Game 1 home underdog of 4.0 to 16.5-points like Duke that won 8 or more regular season games the year before, and has won 9 or more of their last 28 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-0 ATS since 2010. The underdogs also won 7 of those 10 games straight up. Giver me Duke plus the points.

South Alabama @ Tulane 8:00 PM ET

Game# 219-220

Play On: South Alabama +6.5

Soth Alabama finished the 2022 regular season with an impressive 10-2 record. Their lone defeats came by just a combined 5 points. The Jaguars were 5-1 SU on the road with their lone loss coming a at UCLA 32-31 in a contest they closed as a 15.5-point underdog. They return 18 starters from that team.

Tulane had a storybook 12-2 season and AAC Championship. Additionally, that magical season concluded with a 45-28 win over UCF in their conference championship game, and a stunning New Year’s Day Bowl thrilling win over traditional college football powerhouse USC. Yet here we are 8 months later, and they’re just a touchdown favorite in their season opener at home versus a Sun Belt Conference team. They’re begging you to lay the points at home with the Green Wave. Tulane lost some very key personnel on both sides of the ball that heavily contributed to an extremely successful season.

I going with a contrarian approach in this one, and it wouldn’t shock me in the least if the underdog pulls off an outright upset. However, I won’t get greedy and take South Alabama plus points.

Florida @ Utah 8:00 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: Utah -6.0

Utah was upset in their season opener a year ago by Florida in a game that went into the very late stages of the 4th quarter before a winner was finally decided. However, all you need to do is look at the Florida Gators regular season over/under win total of 5.5. When doing so, it tells you what the sharpest minds in sports betting, which are oddsmakers, think of Florida’s chances of even reaching a in a bowl game this year, let alone beating a Top 10 caliber team in their season opener.

Utah has gone 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. Furthermore, since 10/17/2015, the Utes are a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite while playing with revenge. The average line during those 11 situations was 11.5 and the Utes outscored their opponents by an average of 18.6 points per game. If the worst-case scenario is Rising being ruled out at gametime, I still like the Utes even at this current number. Otherwise, if Rising is available, this line will move much closer or match the opening number of 9.5. Either way, give me Utah minus points.

Ohio @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 307-308

Play On: Ohio +2.5

This line jumped right off the page at me when it first came out. Ohio as a short road favorite versus a Mountain West football program with a fine winning tradition. However, upon further review, this is an Ohio team that went 10-4 last season, reached the MAC Championship Game, and beat another Mountain West Conference team in a bowl game by way of a 30-27 win over Wyoming. They finished the season on a 8-1 winning run. Ohio returns 9 starters on offense including quarterback Kurtis Rourke and 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year a season ago that was cut short by an ACL injury in Game 11 at Ball State. However, Rourke still threw for 3256 yards with 25 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions. He also ran for 249 yards and 4 touchdowns as well. Since 9/23/17, Ohio has gone 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.0 or less and won by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Ohio plus points.

Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)

The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit.

Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game.

NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence.

Give me Buffalo minus the points.

New York @ Philadelphia 8:15 PM ET

Game#303-304

Play On: Giants +8.0 (5*)

The Giants are an extremely profitable 8-1 ATS in neutral site and away games this season. They also won 5 of those 9 contests straight up. That includes 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU as underdogs of 9.5 or less, and if their opponent had a win percentage of .583 or better, New York improved to 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU.

The Giants have committed just 1 turnover over their previous 3 games. Philadelphia has forced 1 turnover or less in each of its last 6 games. NFL underdogs of between 3.5 to 10 like the Giants who committed 1 turnover of fewer in each of their last 3 games, versus an opponent like the Eagles who has forced 1 turnover or fewer in each of their last 2, resulted in those underdogs going 37-8 ATS (82.2%) during the last 5 seasons. That includes an ever better 18-3 ATS over the previous 3 seasons.

Give me the Giants plus the points.

Dallas @ Tampa Bay 8:15 PM ET

Game# 151-152

Play On: Tampa Bay +2.5 (10*)

The Cowboys have gone 0-3 SU&ATS this season as an away favorite of 7.5 or less and when facing an opponent who has a losing record. Dallas allowed an alarmingly high 32.3 points per game in those losses. Dallas had a stellar regular season record of 12-5 (.705).  However, NFL Postseason away favorites of 2.5 or less who have a win percentage of worse than .722 are 0-10 ATS and 2-8 SU since 1980.

Dallas has an average line difference of +3.94 points per game. Conversely, Tampa Bay is at -6.08 points per game. The Bucks enter the postseason with an uninspiring 8-9 (.471) record. Dallas has gone just 15-17 in their last 32 away games. This sets up a powerful never lost NFL Playoffs betting angle which is displayed below that goes against conventional NFL point-spread handicapping wisdom.

NFL Playoffs home teams like Tampa Bay who have a win percentage of .625 or worse and their average line difference per game is -0.1 or worse, versus an opponent like Dallas who’s won 16 or fewer of its last 32 away games and their average line difference per game is +0.5 or better, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The home teams won those 14 postseason contests by an average of 16.0 points per game.

Give me Tampa Bay plus the points.

Buffalo @ Miami 1:00 PM ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Buffalo -13.5 (5*)

Buffalo enters this Wildcard Round on a 7-game win streak. As a matter of fact, the Bills have a season record of 13-3, and those trio of defeats came only by a combined 8 points. With a little bit of luck, we could be talking about an NFL team having an undefeated regular season for a first time since New England did it in 2007. In any event, 1 of those 3 losses came at Miami in a game the Bills outgained the Dolphins by a massive 285 yards. Buffalo won the rematch at home 32-29 and racked up another 446 yards of total offense. This time around, Miami will be missing Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and most likely will start 3rd stringer Skylar Thompson. Buffalo possesses a strong home field having gone 24-8 in their last 32 played in Orchard Park and that includes 3-0 during postseason action. The last 2 of which were victories by scores of 17-3 over Baltimore and 47-17 against New England. Miami limps into the post season with an uninspiring 9-8 record and that includes going 1-5 in their last 6.

This will be Miami’s first playoff game since 1/8/2017 when they lost at Pittsburgh 30-12. Conversely, since that last Miami postseason appearances, Buffalo has played in 12 playoff games and all under current head coach Sean McDermott. Don’t undervalue postseason experience when handicapping at this time of year, and a huge advantage Buffalo.

Since 1995, NFL Playoffs 1st Round home favorites of 10.5 or more like Buffalo who have won 24 or more of its last 32 at home, versus an opponent like Miami with a win percentage of .647 or worse, resulted in those double-digit home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1995. The average victory margin for those 13 contests came by an average of 19.0 points per game.

Give me Buffalo minus the points.

LA Chargers at Jacksonville 8:15 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Jacksonville +2.5 (5*)

The Chargers closed the regular season with a 31-28 loss at Denver. They allowed an anemic Denver offense to rack up 471 yards of total offense. The Chargers faced Jacksonville at home earlier this season (9/25) and got hammered 38-14 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Jacksonville was revived from the dead after a 4-8 start to the season and finished regular season action on a 5-game win streak. The last of those wins coming in a 20-16 home win over Tennessee and enabled them to win the AFC South Division with a pedestrian 9-8 record. However, momentum is a scary thing for opponents going up against it on the road in the postseason. What’s been extremely encouraging has been the Jaguars defense over its last 3 games. During that stretch they allowed a mere 7.3 points and 272.0 yards per game. Putting that into proper perspective, the Jags held their opponents to 13.3 points and 81.3 yards below their season average which is a sign of a unit jelling at the right time. By, the way, Jacksonville won their last 4 at home with 3 of those coming as underdogs. One more note, the jaguars Doug Pederson has gone 14-4 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as a home underdog, and his teams outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game.

NFL teams like Jacksonville that are facing an opponent like the Chargers who are playing with same season revenge stemming from a defeat in which they scored 14 points or fewer, and those oppponents are coming off a road loss, resulted in teams like the Jaguars going 40-13 (75.5%) SU over the previous 5 seasons.

Give me Jacksonville plus the small number.

Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET

Game# 459-460

Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*)

Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871)  and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival.

Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game.

Give me Green Bay minus the points.

NY Jets @ Miami 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Miami -3.0 (5*)

Any NFL favorite of 3.0 or more like Miami that has a win percentage of less than .750, versus an opponent like the Jets who is coming off SU favorite losses in each of their previous 2 games, and they possess a win percentage of ..400 to .490, resulted in those teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The average margin of victory in those 14 wins came by 16.0 points per game.

Give me Miami minus the points.

Carolina @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*)

I can’t help but think that Carolina will be mentally spent after what transpired last week. They were presented with an excellent opportunity to steal an NFL South Division Title when it seemed unfathomable to think after firing their head coach and trading away its best player earlier this season. We’re talking about a Panthers team that started the season 1-5 and was still a terrible 2-7 through 9 games. However, in a must win game last week at Tampa Bay and their division title hopes handing in the balance, Carolina sustained a heartbreaking 30-24 loss and we eliminated from contention. That’s a tough emotional obstacle to overcome when playing in a regular season finale just 7 days later, and do so on the road to boot. Despite now being 6-10, Carolina has gone a miserable 1-6 on the road. Additionally, since 2020 Carolina is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS when coming off a loss by 6 points or fewer, and that worsens to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS if those were away games.

New Orleans is finishing the year strong despite being eliminated from realistic playoff aspiration a long while ago. The Saint enter Week 18 riding a 3-game win streak in which they allowed a mere 12.7 points and 294.0 yards per contest. Ride the season ending momentum with the Saints.

Give me New Orleans minus the points.

Utah vs. Penn State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 283-284

Play On: Utah +1.5 (5*)

Penn State ended the regular season on a 4-game win streak to improve its record to 10-2 (.833). However, in their 2 marquee games this season they lost to Michigan 41-17 and at home to Ohio State 44-31. The Nittany Lions allowed a combined 1015 yards in those defeats. They’ll be facing a Utah team in the Rose Bowl that’s one of just a handful of college football squads that can match or exceed their physicality.

Since Kyle Whittingham took over as head coach Utah, the Utes have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in either bowl games of Conference Championship contests. That includes 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU if their point-spread was -2.5 to +9.5 in those postseason games. Utah is coming off USC 47-24 as a 2.5-point underdog in the PAC-12 Championship Game that improved their season record 10-3 (.769).

College Football teams like Utah who have a point-spread parameter of +2.5 to -2.5 +2.5 and are playing after Game 10 with a win percentage of .857 or less, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win by 7 points or greater in which they scored 35 points or more, versus opponents like Penn State that have a win percentage of better than .600, resulted in those teams going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2001.

Give me Utah over Penn State.

Tulane vs. USC 1:00 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Tulane +2.5 (5*)

This line jumped right off the screen at me when it first came out. We have mighty USC who blew a sure College Football Playoff invite when they fell to Utah in the PAC-12 Championship Game. Now they’re less than a field goal favorite with little to no line movement off the opener while facing Tulane from a Group-Of-5 Conference (AAC). The totality of those previous 3 sentences speaks volumes to me. As a result, and just like I expected public perception will be askew when assessing who to take in this game. The consensus obvious choice would be USC and especially for those looking through a narrow lens. The Green Wave are for real. They defeated Big 12 champion Kansas State on the road earlier this season. That’s the same Kansas State that beat TCU (13-1) in their Conference Championship Game. By the way, TCU will be playing Georgia for College Football National Championship Game on January 9th.

Enough said, give me Tulane plus the small number.

Rams @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 129-130

Play On: Rams +6.5 (5*)

Don’t expect the 5-10 Rams to lay down in this game just because their playoff hopes were put to rest for few weeks now. All you need to do in look at their 51-14 home win over Denver last week. Granted, the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. However, we are a sizable underdog in a game in which both teams share the same stadium. Nonetheless, the Rams are the designated road team on Sunday.

NFL regular away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like the Rams who are playing after Game 14, and they’re coming off a home win, resulted in those away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 going 18-0 ATS since 2014. Those underdogs also went a very respectable 9-9 SU in those contests.

Give me the Rams plus the points.

Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*)

The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games.

Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit.

NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game.

Give me Green Bay minus the points.

Dolphins @ Patriots 4:25 PM ET

Game# 117-118

Play On: Dolphins +3.0 (5*)

I firmly believe there’s been too much emphasis on Tua being out for this huge AFC East battle with playoff implications. The Dolphins backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has started and played in some big games when a member of the Minnesota Vikings.

Miami is coming off a 26-20 loss to Green Bay in a game they were a 3.5-point home favorite. Conversely, New England was handed a 22-18 loss by Cincinnati and failed to cover as a 3.0-point home underdog. That dropped the Patriots season record to 7-8. NFL division road underdogs like Miami that are coming off a home favorite SU loss, versus an opponent like New England that has a losing record and is coming off a home underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road underdogs going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdogs not only covered in all those contests, but they won each one outright and by an average of 7.2 points per game.

Give me the Dolphins plus the points.

Ohio State vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Ohio State +6.0 (10*)

Fresh in the minds of many is Ohio State’s embarrassing home blowout loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes allowed 45 points and 542 yards in that defeat. Despite that poor defensive showing, the Buckeyes defense still allows just 19.3 points and 304.1 yards per game. The Georgia defense has been an elite unit for the past 2 seasons. However, LSU may have exposed a weakness in Georgia’s pass defense during the SEC Championship Game. LSU Tigers was able to rack up 502 passing yards in a loss. On the other hand, Ohio State has averaged 44.5 points and 492.8 yards per game this season. Because of those last 2 points, we have a puncher’s chance with the underdog Buckeyes explosive offense.

Give me Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kansas State vs. Alabama 12:00 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Kansas State +7.0 (5*)

Kansas State enters this Sugar Bowl matchup with mighty Alabama on an extremely high level of confidence. The Wildcats went 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 including an upset of then undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. Now they get to take on the current biggest brand name in College Football. Kansas State has been terrific offensively throughout their previous 7 contests while averaging 38.7 points scored and 442.3 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Crimson Tide defense which looked a bit vulnerable in their final 3 regular season games versus LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn. During that stretch, Alabama allowed a mere mortal 27.7 points and 388.3 yards per game.

Here's a key element in which I believe why Kansas State will at the very least keep this game close throughout. The Wildcats have an outstanding turnover margin of +14 this season. Conversely, Alabama comes in at a -4. Here’s another, Kansas State’s emotional edge over Alabama. Nick Saban has built this program to the standard that anything less than a national championship isn’t acceptable. Let alone what occurred this season where they failed to reach both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoffs. Kansas State on the other hand, will be extremely excited for this opportunity in a major bowl game and expecting to win.

Give me Kansas State plus the points.

Oklahoma vs. Florida State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 255-256

Play On: Florida State -9.5 (5*)

Oklahoma enters the bowl season with a disappointing 6-6 record under 1st year head coach Brett Venables. The Sooners were 1-6 SU and 0-7 this season in games they allowed 14 points or greater. They’ll be facing a Florida State team that hasn’t scored 14 points or fewer in any game this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma has allowed 38 points or more in 6 of its last 9 and 400 yards or greater in 8 of its previous 9 games.

Florida State is on a path of returning to the glory days in year 3 of head coach Mike Norvell’s tenure. The Seminoles finished regular season action with a stellar 9-3 record. Furthermore, they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. During this current winning streak, the Seminoles averaged 43.6 points scored and 490.6 yards per game. Florida State is also 3-0 SU&ATS this season versus non-conference FBS opponents. The Seminoles defense isn’t too shabby as well. They’re allowing just 19.7 points and 308.0 yards per game. Florida State won’t beat themselves, evidenced by them committing only 12 turnovers this season.

Give me Florida State minus the points.

Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss 2:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Texas Tech +3.5 (5*)

These teams enter the bowl season on opposite sides of the momentum meter. Texas Tech finished its regular season schedule by going 3-0 SU&ATS to end up 7-5. On the other hand, after beginning the season 7-0 and being ranked in the Top 10, Ole Miss lost 4 of its last 5, and includes a current 3-game losing streak. Despite Ole Miss coming from the powerful SEC, Texas Tech has played a slightly tougher schedule according to the metrics I use to determine that matchup element.

Give me Texas Tech plus the points.

UCF vs. Duke 2:00 PM ET

Game# 245-246

Play On: Duke -3.0 (5*)

Duke won 4 of their last 5 to finish its regular season slate 8-4. All 4 of the Blue Devils losses came by 8 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, their previous 3 defeats came by a combined 8 points. Unlike most teams this bowl season including UCF, Duke’s roster has remained intact with regards to transfer portal losses or players opting out for the 2023 NFL draft. During that 4-1 stretch to finish the regular season, Duke allowed a mere 90.6 yards rushing per game. That's not good news for UCF since they went 0-3 SU&ATS this season when rushing for less than 160 yards in a game and lost by 14.7 yards per contest. Another key element is Duke averages 33:00 in time of possession per game and is effectively balanced offensively. Lastly, Duke doesn’t beat themselves. The Blue Devils have committed 10 turnovers all season and are a +14 in turnover margin.

Give me Duke minus the points.

East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina 6:45 PM ET

Game# 241-242

Play On: East Carolina -7.0 (5*)

East Carolina has gone 6 consecutive games without committing a turnover. As a matter of fact, that had 0 turnovers in 8 of 12 games this season. After starting the season 9-1, Coastal Carolina lost it’s last 2 to Troy 45-26 and James Madison 47-7. Conversely, Coastal Carolina committed 6 turnovers in their last 3 games alone which is 1 less than East Carolina had all season.

Coastal Carolina star quarterback Grayson McCall is set to return from injury and play despite entering his name into the transfer portal. It also remains to be seen how sharp McCall will be after not seeing live action for an extended period. Additionally, successful head coach Jamey Chadwell notified the school after the Chanticleers loss in the Sun Belt Championship Game that he’ll be leaving to take the job at Liberty. Other than more money which is most always alluring, it appears to be a lateral move and certainly won’t bode well in terms of team morale.

East Carolina has an impressive passing game that averages 288 yards per contest in the air. Conversely, Coastal Carolina was last in the Sun Belt Conference in pass yards allowed. Specifically speaking, the Chanticleers allowed 278 or more passing yards in their last 5 and 9 of its previous 11 games.

Give me East Carolina minus the points.

Commanders @ 49ers 4:05 ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Commanders +7.0 (5*)

Washington still controls their own postseason destiny despite last week’s disappointing 20-12 loss to the New York Giants. They currently have a ½ game lead over Detroit and Seattle for the final NFC wildcard berth. The Commanders have gone an excellent 4-0-1 SU in their last 5 away games. The 49ers have things locked up in the NFC West and it’s now a matter of whether they can catch Minnesota for the #2 seed in the NFC. The 49ers defense has received a ton of accolades and rightfully so. Nonetheless, Washington has allowed 21 points or fewer in each of their last 10 games while also holding opponents to less than 300 yards in 5 of those contests. Washington will give an excellent San Francisco team all they can handle and then some.

Give me the Commanders plus the points.

Giants @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET

Game# 453-454

Play On: Giants +4.0 (5*)

The Giants are coming off last Sunday’s huge 20-10 road win over Washington in a game that had major postseason implications.  That victory improved their season record to 8-5-1 (.607). The Giants have gone a very profitable 5-1 ATS on the road this season and won 4 of those SU.

Meanwhile, Minnesota overcame a 33-0 halftime deficit in last Saturday’s 39-36 overtime win versus Indianapolis. Despite their impressive 11-3 record, Minnesota is averaging outscoring their opponents by 0.2 points per game. They’ve seen 5 of their 11 wins come by 4 points or fewer. The Vikings defense has really struggled during the 2nd half of the season. Specifically speaking, throughout their previous 6 contests, Minnesota has allowed 31.3 points and 440.7 yards per game.

NFL teams like the Giants that are coming off a division win in which they allowed 7 or more points, and they have a win percentage of less than .750, versus a team like Minnesota who’s coming of a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in teams like the Giants going 17-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2017. Furthermore, they went 14-4 SU in those exact situations as well.

Give me the Giants plus the points.

Atlanta @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Baltimore -6.0 (5*)

The strength of Atlanta’s offense is their running game and especially so during the 2nd half of this season. However, they’ll be facing a Baltimore defense which has held 10 of 14 opponents this season to 88 yards or less rushing and is #3 in the NFL against the run. On the other hand, Baltimore possesses the #2 rushing offense in the NFL at 164.7 yards per game. The Ravens will be facing an Atlanta defense which has allowed an average of 171.2 yards per game on the ground over their previous 5 contests.

Give me Baltimore minus the points.

UL-Lafayette vs. Houston 3:00 PM ET

Game# 229-230

Play On: Houston -7.0 (5*)

UL-Lafayette has lost 2 starters for this game due to them opting out for the NFL Draft. They include top wide receiver Michael Jefferson and star defensive end Andre Jones. On the one occasion the Ragin Cajuns stepped in class this season, they were blown out 49-17 at Florida State.

Houston finished the regular season with a somewhat disappointing 7-5 record. However, this is an offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders while averaging 41.7 points scored per game over their last 7 contests and amassed 445 yards or more of total offense on each occasion. The Cougars are #14 nationally in scoring offense at 37.5 points per game. They also possess the 7th best passing offense in the country while averaging 321.1 yards in the air per game. The Cougars have unequivocally played the stronger schedule in this matchup.

Give me Houston minus the points.

Liberty vs. Toledo 7:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: Liberty +4.0 (5*)

This Boca Raton Bowl opened with Toledo being a 1.0-point favorite and was quickly moved to 3.5 and 4.0. The move had to do more with the departure of head coach Hugh Freeze who left Liberty to take the same position at Auburn than money related. Since the interim tag was removed from Jason Candle at Toledo, the Rockets have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in bowl games under his guidance, and 3 of those defeats came as a favorite. Conversely, since becoming a FBS team, Liberty has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in bowl games with 2 of those wins coming as an underdog.

Give me Liberty plus the points.

Philadelphia @ Chicago 1:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Philadelphia -8.5 (5*)

Philadelphia’s offense has been red-hot throughout their previous 3 contests while averaging 41.0 points and 463.3 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off last week’s convincing 48-22 road win over the Giants. They’ll be facing a Chicago team that’s gone 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 and allowed 33.5 points per game during that stretch.

NFL favorites of 6.5 or greater playing after Game 8 like Philadelphia who possess a winning record, and they’re coming off a road win by 21 points or more, versus a team like Chicago with a losing record, resulted in those favorites of 6.5 or greater going 22-3 (88%) ATS since 2013.

Give me Philadelphia minus the points.

Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET

Game# 319-320

Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*)

Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins.

The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings.

Give me Carolina minus the points.

Baltimore @ Cleveland 4:30 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Cleveland -2.5 (5*)

Here we are entering Week 15 of the NFL season, and we have a 5-8 team (Cleveland) as a favorite over a 9-4 (Baltimore) opponent. Yes, Baltimore is without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, but this line still speaks volumes to me. NFL betting history over the last 27 season has shown that losing teams that are favorite over winning teams this late in the year have been a strong play on.

NFL favorites like Cleveland playing after Game 12 with a losing record, versus teams like Baltimore who own a win percentage of .692 or better, resulted in those favorites going 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS since 1996. If those losing teams were favorites of 3.5 or less, they improved to 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS throughout that identical time span with a substantial average victory margin of 17.6 points per game.

Give me Cleveland minus the points.

Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*)

This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses.

Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC.

Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Indianapolis @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET

Game# 307-308

Play On: Indianapolis +4.0 (5*)

This line makes no sense to me when considering the disparity between these team’s records. Minnesota is 10-3 while the Colts come in at 4-8-1 and that includes losing 6 of its last 7 games. Additionally, Minnesota is 6-1 at home this season and Indianapolis is 2-4-1 on the road including a 54-19 loss at Dallas in their previous game. Yet, the Vikings are just a 4.0-point home favorite. However, despite their 10-3 record the Vikings have average 24.0 points scored and 24.1 points allowed per game.

Yes, the Colts allowed 54 points to Dallas in their previous outing, but more had to do with them committing 5 turnovers than shoddy defensive play. As a matter fact, the Cowboys outgained the Colts by only 73 yards in that 35-point win. Minnesota is coming off a loss of their own by a score of 34-23 at Detroit.

NFL non-division away underdogs like Indianapolis who are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing a team like Minnesota who is coming off a SU loss, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-0 ATS since 1983. What’s even more astonishing is those away underdogs also went an incredible 19-3 SU in those contests. The average line in those 22 games was 6.3.

Give me Indianapolis plus the points.

Carolina @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Seattle -3.5 (5*)

Carolina is coming off a 23-10 home win over a hapless Denver team which is now on current 0-4 and 1-8 losing runs. They were also the lowest scoring offensive team in the NFL. That won’t be the case this week as Seattle posses the #5 scoring offense in the NFL and they’ve averaged a lofty 28.6 points scored per game over their last 6 contests. Moreover, Carolina hasn’t won 2 consecutive games all season long. Additionally, the Seahawks are coming off last week’s 27-23 road win over the Rams which improved their season record to 7-5. They’re tied with the Giants for the final NFC Wildcard spot and hold the tiebreaker over New York because they already beat them earlier this season. With the Giants facing Philadelphia (11-1) this week and considering this is a very winnable game for the Seahawks, it bodes well for Seattle playing with a high degree of urgency and desperation.

Give me Seattle minus the points.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*)

Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games.

NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game.

Give me the 49ers minus the points.

Chiefs @ Bengals 4:25 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Bengals +2.5 (5*)

Some will make be a big deal about the revenge factor after Cincinnati knocked of Kansas City twice last season. As a matter of fact, one of the Bengals wins occurred in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. I’ll take the opposite approach and say Cincinnati has the confidence it can beat arguably the most dominant team in the AFC over the past 4 seasons. The Bengals are 3-0 SU&ATS this season in non-division home games. They’re also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact role dating back to last season. Cincinnati is currently riding a 3-game win streak with the last 2 of those victories. coming in away games.

NFL regular season home underdogs of 3.0 or less that are coming off 3 or more wins in a row with the last 2 coming in away games, and they possess a win percentage of .562 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs of 3.0 or less going a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS.

Give me the Bengals plus the small number.

Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*)

Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.

Give me the 49ers minus the points.

Jets @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET

Game# 451-452

Play On: Jets +3.0 (5*)

This is another line that jump right off the screen at me, and it hasn’t budged all week. The NFL North Division leading Vikings (9-2) as only a 3.0-point favorite against an upstart Jets team (7-4). Public perception will clearly lean toward the Vikings. However, public perception is wrong more times than right.

NFL road teams in regular season action Games 12 through 17 who have a point-spread parameter of +3.0 to 2.5 (Jets) and are coming off a home win by 21 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .538 or better, versus an opponent (Vikings) with a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those road teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2015. The average victory margin came by 8.8 points per game. It’s a rare but perfect NFL betting angle which makes sense as it applies and aligns to my opening line.

Clemson vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Clemson -7.5 (5*)

North Carolina was 9-1 to start the season before losing their last 2 regular season games versus Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Despite their still stellar 9-3 record, the tar Heels defense isn’t championship caliber. That’s been a common theme during Mack Brown’s second tenure as the Tar Heels head coach. His teams post winning records that are more of a result of superb offensive play than its defensive prowess. The Tar Heels are a misleading 6-0 this season in games not played at Chapel Hill. Nevertheless, they were just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests and their opponents average 35.0 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, 5 of those 6 wins came by 3 points or fewer and the other being a 7-point victory over Georgia State.

Clemson has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 ACC Championship games and outscored their opponents by an average of 25.8 points per contest. The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Since the start of the 2012 season, Clemson is 14-0 SU following a loss. Those results include 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 14.0 or less and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per game. Simply put, Clemson hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 2011 and with them laying a single-digit number on Saturday it creates a strong betting value.

Give me Clemson minus the points.

Purdue vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 323-324

Play On: Purdue +17.0 (10*)

Since 2017, Purdue has gone an extremely profitable 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog of 4.0 or more and they won 11 of those 22 contests straight up. By the way, 2017 is the year Jeff Brohm took over as their head coach. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-16 win at Indiana in their regular season finale and covered as a 10.0-point favorite. That victory improved their season record to 8-4 (.666). Conversely, Michigan comes off a huge 45-23 upset win at bitter rival Ohio State and did so as a 9.0-point underdog to conclude their regular season slate with an undefeated 12-0 record. It must be noted that college football neutral site favorites of 10.0 or greater that are coming off an away underdog of 9.0 or greater SU upset win, resulted in those teams going 0-6 ATS since 2002.

College Football conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 that are coming off a conference away favorite ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .666 or better, versus an undefeated opponent (Michigan) that’s coming off an ATS win in which they scored 56 points or fewer, resulted in those conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 going 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Give me Purdue plus the points.

LSU vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Georgia -17.5 (5*)

Georgia (12-0) is a tremendous defensive team that has allowed 14 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. The Bulldogs have also allowed 22 points or fewer in all 12 of their regular season games. Additionally, Georgia has allowed 22 points or fewer in 29 of its previous 30 games. The offense will certainly do their part, but defense will ultimately earn us a cover.

Brian Kelly has done a superb job in his 1st year as head coach at LSU. His Tigers are 9-3 and find themselves in the SEC Championship Game versus the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU was a shiny 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season. However, in all other games not played in Baton Rouge they were 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That basically tells me they’ve played far beneath expectations in those contests.

Give me Georgia minus the points.

Fresno State @ Boise State 4:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Fresno State +3.0 (5*)

These teams just played one another on October 18th and Boise State walked away with a 40-20 final score. However, the final score was very deceiving when considering that Fresno State had a total yards advantage of 443-233. Since that defeat, Fresno State has won 7 consecutive contests and won by a convincing average of 21.3 points per game. The Bulldogs rushed for a season high 316 yards in that loss and only threw the ball 18 times. This is also a Fresno State offense that’s amassed 313 or more passing yards in 4 of its last 5 games while also posting a turnover differential of +8 during that stretch.

Give me Fresno State plus the points.

Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*)

Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages.

Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer.

College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game.

Give me Troy minus the points.

Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*)

These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession.

Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year.

North Texas @ UTSA 7:30 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: UTSA -8.5 (5*)

UTSA started the season 1-2 with losses coming to Houston by 2 and at Texas 41-20. Since that time, they’ve won 9 straight including going 8-0 in Conference USA action. UTSA defeated North Texas 31-27 at home earlier this season but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. However, looking inside the numbers they outgained North Texas (7-5) in that contest by a wide margin of 496-347 and on most occasions that would be good enough for at double-digit win at the very least. The Mean Green have also lost on the road 3 other times by 31 at UNLV, by 20 at UAB, and by 10 at Memphis. On those occasions they allowed an average of 47.7 points and 471.7 yards per game. North Texas has allowed 496 yards or more in 5 of 12 games this season. That’s hardly championship material defensive play. They will be tasked with stopping a UTSA offense that’s averaged 38.4 points and 480.5 yards per game in Conference USA action.

Give me UTSA minus the points.

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis 8:15 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Indianapolis -2.0 (5*)

Pittsburgh is coming off a 37-30 division home loss to Cincinnati in their previous game. That defeat dropped the Steelers season record to 3-7 (.300).

Any NFL team (Colts) that’s +2.5 to -2.5, versus an opponent (Steelers) with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a division loss by 7 points or fewer, resulted in those teams like Indianapolis going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory came by 7.8 points per game.

Give me Indianapolis minus the small number.

Rams @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Chiefs 15.0 (5*)

The Rams are reeling right now. They’ll be without their starting quarterback Mathew Stafford and all-pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp who will be sidelined by injuries. Los Angeles limps into this contest on a 4-game losing streak in which they were 0-3-1 ATS as well.

The Chiefs offense is peaking right now. They have accounted for 319 yards or more passing in each of their previous 5 games. Kansas City’s offense has also amassed 486 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 3 games.

NFL home favorites of 10.5 or more with a winning record, versus teams with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that enter a contest on a on 2 or more game losing streak, resulted in those double-digit home favorites going 20-0 ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by an enormous 24.0 points per game.

Give me the Chiefs minus the points.

Saints @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: 49ers -9.0 (5*)

New Orleans is coming off a 27-20 home win over banged up and struggling Rams team. However, the Saints have failed to win 2 games in a row all season and are 0-3 SU&ATS following a victory. New Orleans is also 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games.

San Francisco is coming off a 38-10 blowout win over Arizona and has the look of a team that’s primed for an extremely strong finish to their regular season slate. The 49ers defense has been tremendous in 9 of their 10 games played with the only exception coming against Kansas City who is arguably the NFL’s best offensive team. As a matter of fact, the 49ers are #1 in total defense while allowing a mere 283.9 yards per game, #3 in scoring defense at 17.3 points per contest, and has amassed the 4th most sacks at 32.

Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*)

Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog.

Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)

You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts.

Give me Oregon State plus the points.

Louisville @ Kentucky 3:00 PM ET

Game# 159-160

Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*)

College Football away teams (Louisville) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a conference SU win by 30 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .510 to .600 who’s coming off a SU loss in which they covered as an underdog, resulted in those away teams going 24-10 SU (70.6%) and 28-6 ATS (82.4%) since 1992.

Give me Louisville plus the small number.

Akron @ Northern Illinois 1:30 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: Northern Illinois -10.0 (5*)

College Football home favorites of 6.5 to 14.0 (Northern Illinois) that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 35.0 points or less, versus teams like Akron who have a win percentage of .250 to .400 and coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 18-2 ATS (90%) since 1986. The home favorites won all 20 of those games straight up and by an average of 19.7 points per contest.

Give me Northern Illinois minus the points.

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison 12:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: James Madison -14.0 (5*)

I’m aware of the fact that Coastal Carolina star quarterback was lost to a season ending injury. However, this is still a Coastal Carolina team that’s ranked #23 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings with an outstanding 9-1 record. Yet, here they are as a 2-touchdown underdog versus an unranked conference opponent with a 7-3 record. Coastal is the sucker play of the week.

Give me James Madison minus the points.

Nebraska @ Iowa 4:00 PM ET

Game# 131-132

Play On: Iowa -10.5 (10*)

Nebraska is 0-5 in their last 5 games and scored 14 or less on 4 of those occasions. Iowa is a red-hot 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and allowed 13 points or less in all 4 of those games while also recording a turnover differential of +7. As a matter of fact, the Hawkeyes have allowed 13 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. Iowa has defeated Nebraska 7 straight times.

College Football conference home favorites of 10.5 to 17.5 that are coming off a conference win by 48 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Nebraska) coming off a loss by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those conference home favorites withing the above stated point-spread going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 2006.

Give me Iowa minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Game# 107-108

Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*)

Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements.

Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game.

Kansas City @ LA Chargers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Chargers +5.5 (5*)

Kansas City has ruled the roost in the AFC West for several seasons. Although, the Chargers have enjoyed more success than most against them recently. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Kansas City. They were also 2-3 SU in those contests and their 3 losses came by just a combined 12 points. Los Angeles should also receive a huge boost with the return of starting wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams from injuries. The Chargers offense takes on a whole other level when both players have been healthy and on the field at the same time. If the Chargers have any hope of realistically winning the AFC West Division, then this is a must-win game. At the very worse this goes right down to the wire which favors underdogs of better than a field goal. Personally, I believe the Chargers are full capable of pulling off the upset in this spot. Nevertheless, I won’t be greedy and take the points.

Give me the LA Chargers plus the points.

Carolina @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET

Game# 451-452

Play On: Baltimore -12.5 (5*)

Carolina is coming off a 25-15 home underdog SU win over Atlanta. NFL betting historu throughout the past 29 season has shown that double-digit road underdogs coming off a home underdog SU win don’t fare well at all in the following game.

Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 to 16.0 (Baltimore) that’s playing after Game 2, versus an opponent (Carolina) coming off a home underdog upset win, resulted in those home favorites within that point-spread parameter going 26-2 ATS (92.8%) since 1994. The home teams also won all 28 of those games SU and by an enormous average of 23.4 points per game.

Give me Baltimore minus the double-digit number.

Chicago @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET

Game# 465-466

Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (5*)

Atlanta is 3-2 at home this season and their 2 losses came by only a combined 4 points. Although the Falcons are an uninspiring 4-6 this season, they still only trail 1st place Tampa Bay by 1.0-game in the NFC South standing. The Falcons enter Sunday on it’s 2nd 2-game losing streak of the season. The last time that occurred, they followed it up with an impressive 27-23 win at Seattle (6-4) who currently is the NFC West Division leader. By the way, Chicago is 5-15 SU and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 away games.

Give me Atlanta minus the points.

Western Kentucky @ Auburn 4:00 PM ET

Game# 365-366

Play On: Western Kentucky +5.5

This comes down to some fundamental college football handicapping principles. Auburn has endured a season to forget thus far and has lost 5 of its last 6 games. During their 3 wins versus FBS opponents this season they outscored their opponents by only a combined 14 points. Here’s the topper, up next for Auburn is a bitter rivalry game with Alabama. This is a text book flat spot for an already struggling Tigers team.

Western Kentucky has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in road games and won 3 of those contests straight up. Their only 2 SU losses came by exactly 3 points at Indiana and at UTSA. During those 5 away contests, the Hilltoppers averaged 40.2 points scored and 494.6 yards per game.

Give me Western Kentucky plus the points.

Texas @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Texas -9.0 (5*)

Any conference away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 with a win percentage of .44 or better, and they’re coming off a game in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .285 or better, resulted in those away favorites going 28-4 ATS (87.5%) since 2009.

Give me Texas minus the points.

Duke @ Pittsburgh 12:00 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*)

College Football home favorites of 3.0 to 12.0 that are coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and have a win percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or better coming off 3 consecutive wins with all versus conference opponents, resulted in those home favorites going 41-9 (82%) ATS since 1996.

Give me Pittsburgh minus the points.

Northwestern @ Purdue 12:00 PM ET

Game# 345-346

Play On: Purdue -17.0 (5*)

College Football favorites of 13.0 to 20.0 with a winning record, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .250 or worse and is coming off 7 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those favorites going 19-0 ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by a substantial average of 29.8 points per game.

Give me Purdue minus the points.

Connecticut @ Army 12:00 PM ET

Game# 351-352

Play On: Army -10.0 (5*)

File this one in the just doesn’t make sense category. We have a UConn football program that’s been revived to relevance under head coach Jim Mora Jr. The Huskies are bowl eligible with a 6-5 record and are about to an Army team that’s an awful 1-6 this season versus FBS opponents. Yet, Army is a double-digit favorite over the upstart Huskies. Can you say contrarian pick? I certainly can just out of a matter of principle.

Give me Army minus the points.

San Diego State @ New Mexico 9:45 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: San Diego State -14.0 (5*)

San Diego State is 6-4 (.600) and is facing a New Mexico team who’s 2-8 (.200). Additionally, the Lobos have lost 7 consecutive games in a row heading into tonight, and they failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. This sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle listed below. During this 7-game New Mexico losing streak, they were outscored by an average of 22.4 points per game. San Diego State has won 8 straight over New Mexico.

College Football away favorites of 13.0 to 21.5 with a winning record, versus opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’re coming off 6 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those road favorites going 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 2013.

Give me San Diego State minus the points.

Tennessee @ Green Bay 8:15 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Green Bay -3.0 (5*)

You may be wondering how 6-3 (.666) Tennessee is an underdog versus a Packers team with an uninspiring 4-6 (.400) record. Well, look inside the numbers and you’ll find that Green Bay despite their losing record has outgained their opponents by an average of 32.0 yards per game. Conversely, Tennessee is somehow 3 games above .500 despite being outgained 76.0 yards per game. The Titans also average a paltry 281.7 yards of total offense per game on the season. We must also keep in mind, that Green Bay is 24-3 in their last 27 home games and that includes 14-0 if after Game 6. The Packers are averaging an impressive 35:17 in time of possession in their 4 home games this season. The Packers are coming off a momentum building 31-28 home overtime win over Dallas in a game they overcame a 14-point 4th quarter deficit.

NFL favorites of 9.5 or less that are coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .428 or better, resulted in those favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game.

Give me Green Bay minus the points.

Arizona @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Arizona +3.0 (5*)

This will be a meeting between teams that have played well below expectations thus far. The defending world champion Rams have scored 14 points or fewer in 5 of 8 games this season. Conversely, although Arizona hasn’t exactly accumulated an enormous number of total yards during its past 3 game, they have been extremely opportunistic. Case in point, during that previously mentioned 3- game stretch, Arizona has an excellent 1 point scored per every 10.8 yards gained ratio.

It’s also worth noting, that since the start of last season, Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus opponents that average forcing 1.0 or less turnover per game. The Rams have forced just 8 turnovers in 8 games and 7 of those takeaways occurred in the first 2 weeks of the season.

Give me Arizona plus the points.

Dallas @ Green Bay 4:25 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Green Bay +4.5 (5*)

Dallas looks like the sucker bet of the week. The Cowboys are coming off a bye week and their last game resulted in an impressive 49-29 home win over Chicago. On the flip side to this equation is a Green Bay team which has lost 5 straight and has looked pathetic offensively while doing so. However, only 1 of those 5 losses occurred at home. The fact remains, the Packers still possess an extremely strong home field, and couple that with being an underdog, equals betting value. How strong is their home field advantage? I’m glad you asked, Green Bay has gone 23-3 (.885) in their last 26 regular season home games. I’m taking the Lambeau Leap!

Give me the Packers plus the points.

Indianapolis @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET

Game# 257-258

Play On: Las Vegas -4.5 (5*)

The Raiders are in a rare situation in which they’re coming off away favorite SU losses in each of their previous 2 games. NFL betting history on home favorites within the current point-spread parameter have done have never failed to cover in that rarified air. That’s been especially the case of those games took place in the 2nd half of the season. Furthermore, they’ll be facing a Colts team that’s gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and scored a pathetic 9.7 points per game.

NFL home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 like Las Vegas that are coming off back-to-back away favorite SU losses, and they’re playing after Game 8, resulted in those favorites within those point-spread parameters going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory 11 contests came by a convincing 16.2 points per game.

Give me Las Vegas minus the points.

Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*)

Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL.

Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer.

Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay 9:30 AM ET

Game# 241-242

Play On: Seattle +3.0 (5*)

Seattle is coming off a 31-21 win over Arizona. The Seahawks have now gone a red-hot 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with 3 of those coming as an underdog. Conversely, Tampa Bay is coming off a 20-17 home win over the Rams. Prior to that victory, the Bucs were 0-3 SU&ATS in their previous 3 and 1-5 SU&ATS over its last 6. What was perceived to be a potent Tampa Bay offense before the season began has fizzled to the tune of scoring 22 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games.

NFL teams like Seattle that are coming off a division SU win by 8 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tampa Bay) with a win percentage of .888 or less and coming off a home win by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those teams like Seattle going 31-0 SU since 1993. If those teams were an underdog in those contests, they were 4-0 SU&ATS. The average point-spread in those 4 contests was 4.3 and the margin of victory came by a decisive 14.7 points per game.

Give me Seattle plus the points.

TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET

Game# 199-200

Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*)

I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners.

If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well.

College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest.

Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Alabama @ Ole Miss 3:30 PM ET

Game# 205-206

Play On: Alabama -12.0 (5*)

Alabama is 7-2 and coming off an upset loss at Tennessee in a game they closed as a 13.0-point favorite. Yet, here they are as a double-digit road favorite 7 days later versus #11 Ole Miss (8-1) with a lot to play for with regards to College Football Playoff aspirations. We need to think like an oddsmaker in this spot and go against public perception. Besides, since 2001, College Football away double-digit favorites that are coming off an away double-digit favorite upset loss, resulted in those teams going 8-1 ATS and 9-0. The average margin of victory in those contests came by 26.7 points per game. Roll Tide Roll!

Give me Alabama minus the points.

Northwestern @ Minnesota 3:30 PM ET

Game# 171-172

Play On: Minnesota -17.0 (5*)

Northwestern has been offensively anemic this season while scoring just 16.7 points per games. That ranks #126 out of 131 teams playing Division 1 football. Conversely, Minnesota is #4 nationally in scoring defense and allows only 14.2 points per game. The Golden Gophers are also #16 nationally in rushing offense while Northwestern is an abysmal #112 defending the run. Not exactly an ideal matchup for a mightily struggling Northwestern team.

After winning their season opener versus Nebraska, the Northwestern Wildcats have lost 8 consecutive games. Minnesota is coming off back-to-back wins which has improved their season record to 6-3 (.667). This sets up an extremely profitable College Football betting angle displayed below.

College Football favorites of 13.5 to 19.5-points with a winning record, facing opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’ve lost 6 or more consecutive games, resulted in those favorites going 26-4 ATS (86.6%) since 2013. The favorites were also a perfect 30-0 SU and won by an average of 238.1 points per game.

Give me Minnesota minus the points.

Ball State @ Toledo 8:00 PMET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Toledo -11.0 (5*)

Toledo is coming off a 27-24 road win at Eastern Michigan. Ball State is coming off a 27-20 win at Kent State in a game they closed as a +6.5 underdog. This sets up an exceptional College Football betting angle displayed below.

College Football home favorites of 9.5 to 23.5 (Toledo) that aren’t undefeated and they’re coming off a road win, versus an opponent (Ball State) with a win percentage of .636 or less who is coming off a conference win as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those home favorites going  25-2 ATS (92.5%) since 2005.

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Tampa Bay -2.5 (5*)

This is a battle of 2 NFC teams who are off to extremely disappointing starts to the season. Keep in mind, these teams are the last 2 Super Bowl winners. The good news, barring a push, 1 of these teams will get an ATS cover.

The Rams are coming off a last Sunday’s 31-14 loss to their bitter rival San Francisco 49ers which dropped their season record to 3-4 (.428). The Rams offense has been ineffective over its last 4 contests while averaging only 14.3 points scored and 290.1 yards gained per game.

Tampa Bay has gone a shocking 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in their previous 6. They enter this week with a vastly underachieving 3-5 record. However, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense have still generated an impressive 306.8 yards per game passing throughout their previous 5 contests. The Buccaneers will also be out to revenge a 30-27 home loss to the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round this past January.

NFL favorites playing after Game 7, and they’re facing an opponent (Rams) with a win percentage of .400 to .490 that’s coming off a SU favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 17-1 SU&ATS (94.4%) since 2013.

Give me Tampa Bay minus the points.

Minnesota @ Washington 1:00 PM ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Washington +3.0 (5*)

Minnesota is coming off last Sunday’s 34-26 home win over Arizona. Washington is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 which includes last week’s upset win as an underdog at Indianapolis.

NFL home underdogs of 3.5 or less (Washington) playing after Game 6 who have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3, and their previous win came as an underdog, and they’re facing an opponent (Minnesota) coming off a SU win, resulted in this home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 1981. The underdogs also went 15-1 SU in those contests.

Give me Washington plus the points.

LA Chargers @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET

Game#461-462

Play On: LA Chargers -3.0 (5*)

The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 9 of the season sitting atop the NFC South standings with a 4-3 record. Yet, they’re a home underdog against a Chargers team which has an identical 4-3 record. The Chargers will be able to move the ball through the air with ease in this matchup. The Chargers are #4 in pass offense through 8 weeks while averaging 279.4 yards per game. Conversely, Atlanta is dead last in the NFL when it comes to pass defense while allowing an alarmingly high 306.9 yards per game.

The Chargers are coming off a 37-23 loss to Seattle as a 4.5-point home favorite. NFL away favorites of 7.0 or less (Chargers) coming off a SU favorite upset loss in which they allowed 35 points or greater, resulted in those road favorites going 20-1 ATS and 21-0 SU since 2015. The average victory margin in those 21 contests came by a decisive 13.6 points per game.

Give me the Chargers minus the points.

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 7:30 PM ET

Game# 395-396

Play On: Vanderbilt +6.5 (5*)

South Carolina cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season 2 weeks ago. However, it was short lived after being knocked off by Missouri 23-10 as a 3.5-point home favorite. Now they enter this matchup against lowly Vanderbilt as just a touchdown road favorite.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have lost 4 straight since opening the season 3-1. However, 3 of those 4 losses came at the hands of #6 Alabama, #3 Georgia, and #11 Ole Miss. Their other loss came at Missouri 17-14 in a game they easily covered as a 14.0-point road underdog.

This goes right down to the wire. Give me Vanderbilt plus the points.

Auburn @ Mississippi State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 397-398

Play On: Mississippi State -12.5 (5*)

Since starting the season 2-0, Auburn has lost 5 of their last 6, and quite frankly were extremely lucky in the lone win in that sequence when Missouri handed them a 17-4 victory in overtime. The Tigers missed a chip shot 22-yard field goal on the final play of regulation time, and then fumbled at the Auburn 1 in overtime which would have given them the win. All the negativity surrounding the football program and its obvious lack of success resulted in head coach Brian Harsin being fired this past Sunday.

Mississippi State has struggled in SEC away games which is evidenced by an 0-3 SU&ATS record in those contests. However, the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 at home, and each of those victories came by 18 points or greater. They’ve also scored 40 points or more in all 4 at home. On the other hand, Auburn has scored 24 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games versus FBS opponents. Auburn has also allowed 41 points or more in each of their previous 3 games.

Give me Mississippi State minus the points.

Clemson @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET

Game# 421-422

Play On: Notre Dame +4.0 (5*)

Unlike other past Clemson teams that have contended for a national title, this 8-0 Tigers team has managed to escape with a trio of 1 score wins, and it includes each of their previous 2 games played. Those last 2 wins each came by exactly 6 points over Syracuse and Florida State. They also beat Wake Forest in overtime earlier this season.

Notre Dame ran the ball down Syracuse’s throat last week while amassing 246 yards rushing and average over 5 yards per running attempt. Florida State showed a few weeks back that Clemson can be run on. The Seminoles had 206 yards rushing in that contest while also averaging a robust 6.1 yards per attempt. The strength of this Notre Dame team is running the ball behind an outstanding offensive line. This will be just the 11th time since 2008 that Notre Dame will be a home underdog. They went 7-3 ATS and 6-4 in their previous 11 in that role. Furthermore, if the Irish didn’t enter those games undefeated, they were a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS. The Irish started the season 2-0, but they’ve rebounded to win 5 of their last 6.

Give me Notre Dame plus the points.

Troy @ UL-Lafayette 5:00 PM ET

Game# 391-392

Play On: Troy -3.5 (5*)

Troy is coming off a Sun Belt Conference 10-6 win at South Alabama in their previous game. That victory was the 5th in a row for the Trojans and improved their season record to 6-2. Their only 2 losses came at nationally ranked Ole Miss 28-10 and at Appalachian State 32-28 when they allowed a miracle Hail Mary touchdown pass on the last play of the game. It’s been a to0ugh transition for UL-Lafayette in the first year since former head coach Billy Napier took the Florida job. They Rajun Cajuns are just 3-4 this season versus FBS teams.

College Football away favorites of between 3.5 and 10.0 with a win percentage of .428 or better (Troy) who scored and allowed 17 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (UL-Lafayette) coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going an unbeaten 8-0 ATS since 2018. It is a short sample size, but those 8 road favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 won those contests by an average of 32.1 points per game. This is a strong betting situation for the road favorite.

Give me Troy minus the points.

Tennessee @ Georgia 3:30 PM ET

Game# 399-400

Play On: Georgia -8.0 (5*)

Here’s the thing, Georgia remains #1 and Tennessee #2 in the AP Poll. However, the first College Football Playoff Rankings came out this week and had Tennessee #1 and Georgia #3. As if the Bulldogs needed any more incentive while playing at home. I look for the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs to win and easily cover.

Both teams enter this game with identical 8-0 season records. Georgia is coming off a 42-20 win over Florida. Georgia has won 15 straight home games versus FBS opponents and includes going 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 to 19.0.

Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 8.5 (Georgia) with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a conference win by 21 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tennessee) with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-2 ATS and 17-0 SU since 2006. The average victory margin in those 17 contests was 17.6 points per game.

Give me Georgia minus the points.

Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET

Game# 403-404

Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)

This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time.

Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week.

Kentucky @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Missouri +1.0 (5*)

Kentucky was blown out 44-6 at #1 Tennessee last Saturday. After starting the season 4-0, the Wildcats have lost 3 of its last 4, and had a turnover margin of -5.

Missouri is coming off a 23-10 upset win at South Carolina last Saturday. Missouri is 4-4 (.500) this season but 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to #3 Georgia 26-22. The Missouri defense has been outstanding during their previous 3 games while allowing only 16.0 points and 268.3 yards per contest. They’ll be facing a Kentucky offense that over its last 4 games has averaged only just 16.5 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game.

College Football home teams with a in percentage of .500 or worse (Missouri) playing before Game 12 and they’re coming off an underdog SU upset win, versus an opponent coming off a road loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 2013. If those home teams had a point-spread parameter of +3.5 to -9.5 they were 11-0 SU&ATS since 2013 and won by an average of 16.4 points per game.

Give me the Missouri Tigers in this one.