Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-21 | Bucs -9.5 v. Washington Football Team | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a real bad matchup for Washington. Tom Brady entered his bye last week leading the NFL in passing yards and TD's. He's on pace to throw for 5,631 yards and 53 TD's. Slowing down at 44? I think not. Washington is last in pass defense and 29th in scoring defense and total yards. Washington just lost pass rusher Montez Sweat, too. So Chase Young, who has only 1 1/2 sacks, can forget about any single blocking. Backup QB Taylor Heinicke's limitations - lack of height, arm strength, decision making - are becoming more exposed as the season progresses. The Buccaneers know about him after beating Washington in the playoffs last season. Washington is down two excellent offensive linemen, too, with guard Brandon Scherff and center Chase Roullier both out. Roullier suffered a broken leg in Washington's last game. There's a major gap between Roullier and his replacement, Tyler Larsen. The Buccaneers are No. 2 in stopping the run and their secondary is getting healthier. I don't see Heinicke being able to keep up with Brady.
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys -9 | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 86 h 44 m | Show | |
I want to back the Cowboys at home after they played their worst game of the season in a 30-16 home loss to the Broncos this past Sunday. Despite that defeat, Dallas still is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games, the best point spread mark in the NFL. Only twice have the explosive Cowboys failed to manage at least 29 points this season when Dak Prescott has started. Atlanta is terrible on defense once again. The Falcons give up the fifth-most points per game and rank 29th in takeaways. The Falcons' 4-4 record is deceiving since three of their wins occurred versus the Giants, Jets and Dolphins whose combined record entering this week was 7-19. Atlanta won all but one of its games on a field goal by Younghoe Koo on the final play. While Dallas should be aroused Atlanta is fat and happy having upset their hated division rivals the Saints on the road, 27-25, last Sunday. This marks the Falcons' fifth different venue in their last five games.
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11-14-21 | Florida State +1 v. Florida | 55-71 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened with a wrong favorite. Florida State lost four players to the NBA, but is still loaded. The Seminoles have tremendous depth. Florida needs Keyontae Johnson to beat Florida State. Unfortunately for the Gators, Johnson isn't playing yet. The Gators never recovered against Florida State last year after Johnson unexpectedly collapsed during their game. The Seminoles went on to win, 83-71. It's the seventh straight time Florida State has defeated Florida. |
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11-13-21 | George Washington v. UC San Diego +2 | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
San Diego earned some respect upsetting California on the road as a double-digit 'dog this past Tuesday. The Tritons have had ample time to rest and prepare for their opening home game. George Washington, though, is making the long trip West. The Colonials are playing for the third time in five days so there is a fatigue factor. The Colonials hung tough against 21st-ranked Maryland on Thursday, losing 71-64. They weren't so impressive in their opener, though, defeating St. Francis (PA), 75-72, as 6 1/2-point home favorites. That dropped George Washington's point spread mark to 3-13 when favored. The Colonials also have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 road contests. |
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11-13-21 | Grizzlies -4 v. Pelicans | 101-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Both teams played Friday night and lost. The Grizzlies are the more talented and deeper team. I like them to bounce back and cover this spread. Memphis has proven it can beat much better teams than New Orleans on the road owning victories against the Clippers and Warriors. The Pelicans have dropped nine in a row going 3-6 ATS during this span. Their last six losses all have come by at least eight points. The Pelicans gave a strong effort last night in falling to the Nets, 120-112, but that's not always a given with this team. New Orleans might get Brandon Ingram back today, but clearly miss Zion Williamson. |
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11-13-21 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +7 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 33 m | Show | |
Montreal covered against Winnipeg last week and I expect the same this week as this game means nothing to the Blue Bombers and everything to the Alouettes. Winnipeg has already clinched home field for the playoffs. The Blue Bombers are resting starters. Backup QB Sean McGuire likely is going to play a lot as Zach Collaros rests. Montreal can rely on William Stanback, the leading rusher in the CFL. He rushed for 106 yards against the Blue Bombers last week. |
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11-13-21 | Michigan v. Penn State +1.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The point spread may not reflect it, but Penn State is the better team. The Nittany Lions are home, too, and don't have the injuries Michigan does. Penn State's losses occurred to Illinois in overtime, to Iowa by three on the road when they were leading by two touchdowns before QB Sean Clifford was injured and a tough nine-point road loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have played a far more difficult schedule than the Wolverines. Penn State has covered 10 of its last 13 games, while Michigan has failed to cover the past six times when going against above .500 opponents. Penn State got back on track smashing Maryland, 31-14, on the road last week. Clifford and his star wide receiver Jahan Dotson had big games. Michigan can't match that passing firepower. The Wolverines are dealing with a number of skill position injuries with running back Blake Corum, wide receivers A.J. Henning and Andrel Anthony all hurt along with tight end Erick All. Corum is their second leading rusher, while All is their second leading receiver. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5 v. Baylor | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has defeated Baylor seven straight times. The unbeaten Sooners also have won 23 consecutive November games. I don't see the Bears putting a halt to that streak. Baylor lost its momentum with a 30-28 loss to TCU last week. The Bears surrendered 570 of total offense to a Horned Frogs squad going with a backup QB and minus their best running back. It's scary how many points and yards the Sooners can put up on the Bears especially being idle last week giving offensive guru Lincoln Riley ample time to prepare and game plan. The Sooners' offense has taken off since Caleb Williams replaced disappointing Spencer Rattler at QB. The Sooners are averaging 46.2 points in their last five games. |
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11-12-21 | Villanova +4 v. UCLA | 77-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Two college basketball giants go at it here. I'm not convinced UCLA is the better team. The timing is right for Villanova to play UCLA this early in the season, too. The Bruins are minus injured big man Mac Etienne and could be without Cody Riley. He suffered a knee injury in the Bruins' first game. The Bruins are trying to figure out their rotation at this early juncture of the season. A key for Villanova is the progress of point guard Collin Gillespie, who is coming back from an MCL injury. He looked good in Villanova's season opener, a 91-51 win against Mount St. Mary's.
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11-12-21 | Hamilton +1 v. Toronto | 12-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
This is my CFL Game of the Month. It's a big game here and I'm going to ride the hot hand of Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli, who in his past four starts has thrown for 1,296 yards with nine TD's and no interceptions. Masoli is 6-2 lifetime against Toronto. Toronto has allowed the second-most touchdowns in the CFL. Only Ottawa has given up more TD's and the Argonauts barely beat the 2-11 Redblacks, 23-20, last week. The Argos lost their best running back, John White, to injury against Ottawa. Hamilton has the second-best defense in the league giving up 17.5 points per game. That's seven points less per game than Toronto permits. |
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11-12-21 | Morehead State +13 v. UAB | 71-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Morehead State isn't getting enough respect with this line. The oddsmaker has downgraded the Eagles too much following their 77-54 road loss to Auburn in the season-opener. Auburn, though, is really strong. The Eagles won 23 games last year, captured the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament. The Eagles are very strong defensively. They have a shot-blocking center in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome to go with other veteran and talented players.
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11-11-21 | CS-Fullerton v. San Jose State +6 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Tim Miles had good success at Nebraska. He was an excellent hire by San Jose State. I look for the Spartans to be competitive against Cal-State Fullerton at home - if not pull off an outright upset - in Miles' San Jose coaching debut. The Titans gave up 83 or more points in six of their last seven games last season and they surrendered 84 points to Santa Clara in their season-opener, an 84-77 road loss. Fullerton is not a good defensive team. The Titans are not a good road team and have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when favored.
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels. However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory. North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points. Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler. Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. |
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11-11-21 | Raptors +3 v. 76ers | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
The Raptors are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row with the latest being 104-88 to the Celtics Wednesday night. Toronto will be playing without rest, but this spot still sets up for the Raptors. That's because the 76ers are in action for the sixth time in nine days and are severely short-handed. Out for the 76ers are Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle. Seth Curry is questionable with a foot injury that caused him to miss the 76ers' last game two days ago. Until losing to the Celtics last night, the Raptors had won and covered their first four road games.
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11-10-21 | Heat -4 v. Lakers | Top | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Lakers aren't playing very well. That's evident by this point spread. LA just nipped the Hornets in overtime at home two days ago. In their previous three games the Lakers lost to the Trail Blazers on the road by 15 points, lost to the Thunder at home and edged the Rockets by two points at home. The Thunder and Rockets are among the worst teams in the NBA. Minus injured LeBron James, the Lakers have been relying on 37-year-old Carmelo Anthony. That's not a good sign. The Heat are off to a fast start. However, they opened their road trip with a 113-96 loss to the Nuggets this past Monday. Miami is the better team right now and will be focused. I'm not expecting Anthony to bail out the Lakers like he did against the Hornets. The Heat give up the second-fewest points per game and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage.
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11-10-21 | Long Beach State -7 v. Idaho | 95-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
There's a class difference here not reflected enough in the point spread. Long Beach State was 6-12 last season. It was a chaotic year for the Beach. COVID-19 wreaked havoc on their season causing the team to miss nearly a month. Long Beach State also had a number of close losses, which makes their record look worse. Idaho is one of the worst teams in the country. The Vandal were 1-21 last season. They ranked 338th in adjusted offensive efficiency and were just as bad on the defensive end. Long Beach State has a number of returning starters. Idaho doesn't. The Vandal lost their only two double-digit scores from last season.
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Paul George is playing well. Damian Lillard is not shooting 35.1 percent from the field. The Clippers are on a four-game win streak and home. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road. The Clippers have covered the last five times they've hosted the Trail Blazers, including beating them, 116-86, on Oct. 25. LA is averaging 116.7 points in its last three games. The Trail Blazers are an average defensive team at best. So I see this short spread being safe to lay.
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11-09-21 | Western Illinois v. Nebraska -15.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm looking for Nebraska to be better than its 7-20 record last season. The Cornhuskers struggled in the rugged Big Ten going 3-16 in league play. But they've added several important players, including former Arizona State guard Alonzo Verge Jr. Nebraska looked good in its preseason games, including beating Colorado, 82-67, at home this past Sunday. Western Illinois last beat a Power 5 conference opponent back during the 2015-16 season. The Leathernecks finished seventh in the nine-team Summit League with a 5-9 conference mark last season. I have Nebraska power-rated to win this game by more than 20 points. |
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11-09-21 | Canisius v. Miami-FL -15 | 67-77 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Miami holds a huge backcourt edge here led by Isaiah Wong, who was named a first-team All-ACC player in the preseason poll. The Hurricanes are deep at guard. They have had problems in the ACC, but are stepping way down in class here. Canisius only was able to play 13 games last season because of the pandemic going 7-6. The Hurricanes have looked good in their preseason games. I have them power rated by more than 20 points in this matchup. |
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11-09-21 | Fairfield v. Providence -14 | 73-80 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
I see Providence dominating this matchup against a middling Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference team. The Friars could have the top center in the Big East, Nate Watson. The Friars tuned up for this matchup burying Stonehill, 95-71, in an exhibition game. Playing Fairfield means a little something extra to Providence coach Ed Cooley. He coached the Stags for six years before coming to Providence. |
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11-08-21 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
This is just the second road game of the season for Minnesota. The first one sure went well for the Timberwolves. They upset the Bucks, 113-108, as six-point 'dogs. I can see the Timberwolves upsetting Memphis, too. The Timberwolves fire up a lot of shots, especially from 3-point range. They just aren't very accurate. Memphis, however, gives up the second-most points per game in the league. The Grizzlies also rank 29th in 3-point defense. Minnesota is ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies, by comparison, rank 28th. The Timberwolves give up seven fewer points per game than the Grizzlies. The Timberwolves still could be without D'Angelo Russell. Still, I'll take the better defensive team given this many points.
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens -6 | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 1 m | Show | |
Minnesota is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games. I don't expect the Vikings to cover this game either. The Ravens are 10-3 off a bye. They've won an NFL-high 11 straight against NFC foes. Baltimore is itching to play after getting blown out by the Bengals in its last game before its bye. I used to like Mike Zimmer. Not so much anymore. I give the Ravens a strong coaching edge with John Harbaugh and his defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale. They've had an extra week to prepare. I expect a strong defensive game plan to limit the limited Kirk Cousins, who is more a glorified game manager than dangerous downfield passer to the detriment of supremely talented Justin Jefferson. Cousins' repeated failure to convert on numerous third downs by throwing short of the first down marker against a mediocre Cowboys defense was sickening. This is the first time the Vikings under Zimmer have faced Lamar Jackson. I'm not sure they know what's fully in store for them. Jackson is passing more, but remains the most dangerous running quarterback in football. Jackson faces a Vikings defense devoid of several key defensive linemen, including star pass rusher Danielle Hunter, and also missing Patrick Peterson, their best cornerback. Hunter has 25 percent of the Vikings' sacks. Not helping matters for the Vikings are the down years experienced by veterans Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith.
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11-07-21 | Texans +6 v. Dolphins | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Tyrod Taylor is back under center. That makes a huge difference for Houston. Taylor is a professional. Rookie Davis Mills was a rank amateur in way above his head as a starting NFL quarterback. Taylor played six quarters before he was injured. The Texans outscored their two opponents, 51-35, during that span. No Taylor isn't some savior. He's a veteran journeyman. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But their 1-7 record is the same as Miami's. The Dolphins give up even more yards than the Texans. Miami ranks 31st in defensive total yards and 29th in scoring defense permitting 29.1 points. Houston has a bye next week. So the Texans should be putting forth a strong effort. Miami isn't nearly the playoff team it was last season. So you have to wonder about the Dolphins' morale. |
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11-06-21 | USC v. Arizona State -8 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 35 m | Show | |
There's a lot wrong with USC these days. The Trojans have an interim head coach. A quarterback controversy. And they just lost their best player, Drake London. He was the top wide receiver in the country and the key to USC's passing attack. The Trojans were nip and tuck with winless Arizona last week before winning, 41-34. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in the country. Yet they scored 34 points on USC's defense. What does that tell you about USC? Arizona State is off a terrible performance, too, losing, 34-21, as a 16 1/2-point favorite to Washington State. Committing five turnovers was a killer for the Sun Devils. Jayden Daniels is a much better QB than he showed in that game. I'm looking for the Sun Devils to bounce back at home against the dysfunctional Trojans. ASU should be able to run more effectively against the Trojans than against the Cougars. USC QB Kedon Slovis is having a disappointing season. He's being pushed by freshman Jaxson Dart, who Arizona State knows well having recruited him. Both QB's are going to dearly miss the fantastic London. ASU ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in sacks with 22. So Slovis and Dart aren't going to have a clean pocket, especially with USC starting freshmen at the offensive tackle spots. |
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11-06-21 | Iowa -12 v. Northwestern | 17-12 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa was never even close to being the second-best team in the country even opening 6-0. But now that the Hawkeyes are off losses to Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined margin of 51-14, they are being underrated with this short point spread stepping this far down in class. The Hawkeyes committed a combined seven turnovers against the Badgers and Boilermakers. They had gone into those games plus 15 in turnover margin. Look for the well-coached Hawkeyes to get back on track against Northwestern, a team they match up much better against. Iowa has a very strong defense. Northwestern has a very weak offense. The Wildcats average fewer than 20 points a game. They rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points and 11th in scrimmage yards. The Wildcats were just blown out by Minnesota, 41-14. Iowa has a good running back in Tyler Goodson. He should be in line for a strong game as Northwestern ranks 126th in the nation in run defense. If the Hawkeyes establish a ground attack, which they didn't do against Wisconsin and Purdue, this would make things much easier for pocket passer Spencer Petras. The Hawkeyes have been at their best beating and covering against bad teams going 21-6 ATS as a road favorite. |
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11-06-21 | Montreal +12.5 v. Winnipeg | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
Yes, Winnipeg is vastly superior to Montreal, is rested following a bye week and at home. So it's easy to see why the oddsmaker made the Blue Bombers a double-digit favorite. There's just one huge catch to this: This game means nothing to Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers already have clinched first place in the West Division and with it home field advantage for the postseason. So there's no reason for the Blue Bombers to go all out and play their regulars the entire game thus risking injury in a meaningless matchup. This isn't the case with the 6-5 Alouettes. They are battling hard for playoff positioning in the East Division. Montreal should get a spark, too, at quarterback from newly acquired Trevor Harris. Only one of Montreal's five losses this season has come by more than nine points.
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11-06-21 | Auburn +4.5 v. Texas A&M | 3-20 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
Texas A&M is getting a lot of respect for having slain Alabama. I see the Aggies getting too much respect here. Auburn is 4-1 in its last five games with its only loss coming to Georgia during this span. The Tigers defeated Arkansas by two TD's two games ago. People forget that Texas A&M, victors over Alabama, lost to Arkansas, 20-10. Zach Calzada had the game of his life against Alabama. Truth be told, though, Calzada isn't nearly that good of a quarterback. Auburn is very strong in the trenches. The Tigers also have an experienced QB in Bo Nix, who doesn't commit turnovers. He has been picked off just twice this season. Compare this to Calzada, who has thrown an interception in each of his last six games. Auburn has covered the past four times it has played on the road against Texas A&M.
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Portland returns home following a disappointing 0-3 road trip capped off by an upset loss to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers should play with a sense of desperation. They also should play well having won their last three home games in blowout fashion against the Suns, Grizzlies and Clippers. Indiana is off a satisfying, 111-98, home win against the Knicks from Wednesday. The Pacers have been at their worst on the road going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS. This is their first away matchup in a week. Indiana does not have a good history at Portland either having lost in 11 of their past 12 visits. |
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11-05-21 | BC v. Hamilton -6.5 | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
The Tiger-Cats are tough at home as evidenced by their 11-4-1 ATS mark the past 16 times they've been a host. BC is 4-10-1 ATS the past 15 times when meeting an above .500 foe. The Lions are in free fall, too, losers of five in a row. The Lions give up the third-most yardage in the CFL and produce the third-fewest yardage. They rank last in pass defense. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli has been hot, averaging 346 yards passing, while compiling 1,038 yards and seven passing TD's during his last three games. The Lions have multiple defensive injuries. They've surrendered at least 30 points in each of their last five games.
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11-04-21 | Thunder +13.5 v. Lakers | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Maybe by Christmas the Lakers can lay these many points. But not right now. LA is 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS. The Lakers have won three of their five games by a combined nine points with one occurring in overtime. Their largest margin of victory is 12 points. The Thunder are a bad team. But they've covered three of their last four games, including upsetting the Lakers, 123-115, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog eight days ago. Oklahoma City came from 26 points down to pull out that victory. Sure the Lakers have revenge. But look at how inflated the point spread is compared to the first meeting. The Lakers have a lot of veterans. This is their third game in five days. Up next for LA is a road game against the Trail Blazers on Saturday. The Lakers are savvy enough to pace themselves. If the Thunder can't hang in at least the back door should be wide open if the game turns into garbage time. LA has won three in a row. Note, though, those wins were against the Cavaliers and twice against the Rockets, all at home. The Lakers are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times as chalk.
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
The Pro Football Hall of Fame collected Mike White's jersey from last Sunday's stunning Jets' 34-31 win against the Bengals. Heady stuff. Kudos to the Jets, who caught the Bengals traveling in a division sandwich spot after beating the Ravens and hosting the Browns this week. The Jets are in the bad spot this week in their own letdown situation and playing a Thursday road game against a frustrated and motivated opponent that is at least two levels better than them. So I'm not afraid to lay this number with Indy. It's the Colts' first prime time home game in four years. The Colts are much the superior team and are in near must-win mode after blowing a two-touchdown lead last week in their AFC South Division showdown loss to the Titans. White isn't throwing for more than 400 yards and three TD's like he did against Cincinnati. White doesn't possess that kind of skill level. Defenses have film on him now, too, and Indy is well-coached defensively. The stunning victory against the Bengals obscures just how wretched the Jets really are. New York averages 13 fewer points per game than its opponents and 84 fewer yards. The Jets have the worst ground attack in the league and the highest percentage of passes intercepted. Carson Wentz has thrown multiple TD's in six straight games. Jonathan Taylor has reinforced his reputation as a stud running back. The Colts' offensive line has gotten healthy. Expect a Colts blowout. |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +5.5 | 109-98 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Pistons have short revenge and are in a great ambush spot here hosting the 76ers. Philadelphia just concluded a 4-0 homestand by beating the Bulls, 103-98, Wednesday night. The 76ers achieved this without Tobias Harris, Danny Green and Ben Simmons. None of those players are going to play today either. Harris has COVID-19, Green has a hamstring injury and Simmons is out for personal reasons. The 76ers were forced to play four of their starters more than 34 minutes against the Bulls, including Joel Embiid. Since this is the second of back-to-back games and against a lowly foe, so the 76ers may reduce Embiid's minutes. Philly has a rematch against the Bulls in Chicago up next on Saturday. This marks the 76ers' fifth game in eight days. Detroit has the worst record in the Eastern Conference at 1-6. The Pistons are in the midst of a major rebuild, but they've played a tough schedule as six of their seven opponents were good. The Pistons covered as 11-point road 'dogs to the 76ers in a 110-102 loss a week ago. The 76ers shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 22 of 24 free throws. The Pistons shot 41 percent from the floor. Detroit also didn't have projected rookie-of-the-year Cade Cunningham in that matchup. This will be Cunningham's third game back from an ankle injury so the rust is coming off.
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11-03-21 | Blazers -3.5 v. Cavs | 104-107 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers do seem improved this season. But they aren't better than the Trail Blazers and this spot sets up well for Portland. The Trail Blazers are trying to salvage the final game of a three-game road trip. They lost, 125-113, to the improved Hornets this past Sunday and followed that up with a disgusting, 113-103, loss to the 76ers on Monday. Philadelphia was minus Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Cleveland last played at home on Oct. 23. The Cavaliers concluded a five-game road trip with a 113-110 victory against the Hornets Monday giving them a 3-2 mark on their away journey. ''To go 3-2 on this trip is a hell of an accomplishment,'' Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff was quoted as saying. So the Cavaliers come into this matchup fat and happy. They also might not have their focus being away from home for the past 11 days. Right after this game, the Cavaliers go back on the road for away games on Friday and Sunday. Such is the quirkiness of the NBA schedule. Cleveland will be playing with a short rotation as Kevin Love is in the NBA's health and safety protocol. He isn't expected to play today. The Trail Blazers dominated the Cavaliers last season winning by 19 points at home and 36 points on the road. They have covered five of the last six times versus the Cavs. |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
I don't see where Western Michigan is double-digits better than Central Michigan even at home. I find this line out of whack. Each team averages 29 points a game. Central Michigan gives up one more point per game than Western Michigan. The Chippewas upset Toledo in overtime two games ago. Western Michigan just played Toledo last week and lost, 34-15. Both teams have balanced attacks. I do give the Broncos an edge at the skill position spots with QB Kaleb Eleby, wide receiver Skyy Moore and running back La'darius Jefferson. Eleby is my starting QB on my Mid-American Conference fantasy team. (Yes I actually am in a MAC fantasy league, maybe the only one in the country.) But the Broncos' edge in skill position talent is offset by turnovers. Western Michigan has turned the ball over twice as much as Central Michigan this season. The Broncos only have two takeaways, too, during their last four games. Central Michigan has been outstanding in a 'dog role under Jim McElwain going 9-3 ATS during the last two plus seasons. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven MAC games. This is a huge in-state rivalry game. The road team has dominated the point spread in this series covering eight of the past nine times. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Toledo | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is an attractive underdog here. The Eagles have the more experienced and accurate QB in Ben Bryant. Average four more points per game than Toledo and have a tremendous road spread record covering 24 of their last 33 away games for 73 percent. The Eagles are averaging nearly 33 points per game. Toledo has the superior defense. The Rockets only have five takeaways, however. Rockets freshman QB Dequan Finn is completing just 51 percent of his passes. Eastern Michigan is average defensively giving up 24.9 points a game. It has been difficult for a MAC team to beat the Eagles by double-digits. Eastern Michigan has lost by more than eight points only twice in its last 10 conference defeats. Toledo failed to cover the last two times it was favored. The Rockets lost, 22-20, at home to Northern Illinois as a 13-point favorite on Oct. 9 and fell, 26-23 in overtime, to Central Michigan as a five-point road favorite on Oct. 16.
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11-02-21 | Bucks -4 v. Pistons | 117-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
The defending champion Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode with consecutive home losses to the Timberwolves, Spurs and Jazz. Now the Bucks take to the road, which might be better for them, and drop way down in class. Detroit is 1-5. The Pistons are in full rebuild mode. They are coming off their first win, though, beating an equally terrible Orlando this past Saturday. A rusty Cade Cunningham made his NBA debut in that game. He shot 1-for-8 in 19 minutes. It's going to take a while for Cunningham to get up to speed coming off an ankle injury. Milwaukee has owned the Pistons, beating them 14 times in a row going 11-2-1 ATS. Detroit has failed to cover nine of the last 10 times it has been a 'dog.
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11-01-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Now that the Grizzlies are home underdogs - which they shouldn't be - I'm going to get involved with them against Denver. The Nuggets are off wins against the Mavericks on Friday and the Timberwolves on Saturday. So this is their third game in four days. The Grizzlies were embarrassed at home by the Heat, 129-103, two days ago. Memphis will be up for this game. The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times after a double-digit defeat. Memphis is tested, too, having played five straight playoff opponents. The Nuggets have failed to cover in six of their last seven visits to Memphis. |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 13 m | Show | |
I can't see the Seahawks losing to the Jaguars at home with their season on the line. The Seahawks still possess the talent - even without Russell Wilson - the coaching, experience and savvy to defeat a bottom feeder such as Jacksonville. Seattle's defense has picked up its game holding its last two opponents under 350 yards. The Seahawks also have had the best third-down defense during the last four weeks. Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams are elite players. Jacksonville could come out flat making the long journey having not played in two weeks. The Jaguars also have the monkey off their backs having halted their 20-game losing streak with a 23-20 win against the Dolphins in London. Jacksonville is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times following a victory.
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -118 | 39 h 7 m | Show |
Now that their offensive line - one of the best in the NFL - is healthy for the first time this season, I expect the Colts to protect their home field and beat the Titans. If the Colts were to lose, they would trail Tennessee by three games in the division. So the urgency certainly is there for Indy. The Titans are off tremendous victories against the Bills and Chiefs. It's difficult for a flawed team, which the Titans are given their shortcomings on defense and special teams, to pull off a third straight upset. Carson Wentz is playing at a high level. He's thrown the fewest interceptions of any starting QB and owns a 119.5 passer rating this month with an 8.9 yards-per-attempt average. Jonathan Taylor can't match Derrick Henry, but he's come on strong to enter the argument of being a top-five runner.
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10-31-21 | Bengals v. Jets +11 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 6 m | Show | |
I understand the Jets are a hold-your-nose team to back. The Jets' defense, though, has played hard and above their heads for first-year head coach Robert Saleh, a defensive guru. New York's offense might show better than expected with backup Mike White given a whole week of practicing with the first team. He has good wide receivers even if Corey Davis doesn't play. But make no mistake this handicap is far more about fading the Bengals, who are in a terrible situational spot. Not only is this Cincinnati's third consecutive road game, but the Bengals are coming off the best road win of Zac Taylor's Bengals' coaching career, downing the Ravens, 41-17, last Sunday. The Bengals are in an obvious letdown spot. They also are in a division sandwich with a much bigger game on deck when they host the Browns next week. Cincinnati's is much improved. But they aren't so elite to cover a double-digit road number in this type of situation.
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10-30-21 | SMU +1 v. Houston | 37-44 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
The spot is ripe for SMU. The Mustangs haven't played in 10 days. They are rested and should be well prepared. Houston lost by 17 points to Texas Tech opening week and then reeled off six straight victories. None of the teams the Cougars beat, though, is as good as SMU. I don't see the Cougars being strong enough to step up here. They needed overtime to beat East Carolina, 31-24, last Saturday. That game lasted much longer than expected due to several weather delays. Cougars QB Clayton Tune is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is having a huge season with 29 TD passes and a 71.1 percent completion percentage. |
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10-30-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Wizards | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Washington is off to a nice 4-1 start. But this game sets up well for Boston. The teams just met in Boston this past Wednesday. The Wizards upset the Celtics, 116-107, as a 4-point road 'dog. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics' two main scorers, were a combined 14-for-38 (36.8 percent) in the loss. Washington shot 51 percent from the floor in the win, while Boston made 44 percent of its field goals. The Celtics have been idle since then. They can use the prep and practice time playing for first-year head coach Ime Udoka. The Wizards went on to defeat the Hawks on Thursday night. So this marks their third game in four days. It's an earlier than usual start time, too. Washington might be without two of its rotation players with Rui Hachimura and Daniel Gafford each questionable.
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10-30-21 | BC v. Toronto -3 | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Surprising that this line opened so low. BC hasn't been competitive going 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Lions have lost their last three games by a combined margin of 114-19. A struggling offensive line and multiple injuries at wide receiver have rendered the Lions punchless. Toronto should bounce back after a 37-16 road loss to Montreal last week. The Argos had won and covered their previous three games. They have not lost back-to-back games all season. BC's defense is gassed and this marks the Lions' second consecutive road game. They lost, 45-0, at Winnipeg last Saturday. Toronto is 4-0 at home this season and 5-0-1 ATS during its past six home contests. BC has failed to cover in four of its last five meetings against Toronto. |
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10-30-21 | Louisiana Tech -4 v. Old Dominion | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 57 m | Show |
Simply put there's a class difference here not reflective of the betting line. Louisiana Tech is experiencing a down and disappointing season. But the Bulldogs still harbor bowl hopes. They are much superior to Old Dominion, which is a bottom-10 caliber team. Louisiana Tech is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three in a row. A pair of those losses were to North Carolina State and to Texas San Antonio, which is the top 25. Old Dominion has dropped five consecutive games. The Monarchs' lone victory was against Hampton, a non Division-I opponent. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests. The strength of the Bulldogs is their passing attack, which ranks 25th. QB Austin Kendall has three good wide receivers in Smoke Harris, Bub Means and Tre Harris. Old Dominion ranks 126th in pass defense. The Monarchs are not going to be able to stop Louisiana Tech's passing attack. Their hope is Louisiana Tech turns the ball over, which it has. However, the Monarchs only have three takeaways. Without causing turnovers, Old Dominion won't be able to hang close. |
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10-29-21 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers have short revenge here. They were buried, 116-86, on the road by the Clippers just four days ago. Damian Lillard and Portland got back on track rebounding to win impressively at home two days ago beating Memphis, 116-96. The Trail Blazers were sharp in their previous home game, too, defeating the Suns, 134-105. I see the Trail Blazers motivated and ready to destroy a disjointed Clippers team that has not found an identity without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers' lone victory was the one against Portland. Lillard had an off-shooting night in that game making just 4-of-15 field goal attempts. I don't see that happening again. Despite Paul George playing well to begin the season, the Clippers are 1-3. They just lost, 92-79, at home to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. That's highly troubling.
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10-29-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -20 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt. Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno. The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games. |
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10-29-21 | Hornets +5 v. Heat | 99-114 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The Hornets remain below the radar. If not for an overtime loss to the Celtics, the Hornets would be 5-0 SU and ATS. They are leading the NBA in scoring at 121.2 points per game and are 2-0 on the road. Miles Bridges could be the most improved player in the league. He's averaging 26.2 points. Miami is the top defensive team in the league. But Charlotte has balanced scoring with four players averaging more than 14 points. It's an added bonus for Charlotte if Terry Rozier can play after missing the last four games with an ankle injury. He's questionable. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Heat could be in letdown mode after an impressive road victory in an underdog role against the Nets two days ago.
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10-28-21 | Spurs +7 v. Mavs | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The Spurs' record shows 1-3. But it's a good 1-3 as San Antonio played tough against the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers, a game it should have won but lost in overtime. Gregg Popovich was pleased with the effort and the performances, which is good enough for me. The Mavericks are in transition under new coach Jason Kidd, who I find to be an overrated coach yet he keeps getting hired. I much prefer the Mavericks as underdogs not favorites. Dallas is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times when playing a below .500 foe. The Spurs have been excellent money-makers when on the road going 15-6-1 ATS.
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors | 100-118 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Toronto isn't going to be very good this season. The Raptors are especially lower tier without Pascal Siakam, who is their main offensive weapon. Indiana is the better team. The Pacers hold a frontcourt edge with Domantis Sabonis and shot-blocker supreme Myles Turner. Rookie Chris Duarte is off to a hot start and Malcolm Brogdon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Fred VanVleet is the Raptors' main cog with Siakam out. VanVleet is turnover-prone and shoots a very low percentage from the floor. I like Brogdon to handle him. The Pacers are stepping down in class after defeating the Heat this past Saturday and hanging tough in a loss to the defending champion Bucks two days ago. The Raptors are 0-3 at home. They've lost to the Wizards, Mavericks and Bulls by an average of 8.6 points a game. Toronto is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight home contests going back to last season. The Pacers have been excellent in this situation going 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games versus opponents with a losing home mark. |
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10-26-21 | Warriors v. Thunder +9.5 | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Sometimes you have to back an ugly underdog when the spot is right in the NBA. That's the case in this matchup. Oklahoma City is 0-3. The Thunder were blown out by the Jazz and Rockets during their first two games this season. They improved in their last game, a 12-point home loss to the 76ers. They are getting good scoring from guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rookie Josh Giddey. Those two will be motivated to go against Stephen Curry. But the basis of this handicap is a fade on the Warriors, who are fat and happy with a 3-0 mark. This is their best start since 2015-16. The Warriors are on the road for a second straight game. Following this matchup they return to the Bay Area to begin an eight-game homestand. So you have to wonder about their focus as it's a definite letdown spot for the Warriors.
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10-25-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
The Clippers, minus Kawhi Leonard, have shown heart. They just haven't shown victories. LA is 0-2 for the first time in 11 years. A slow start from the Clippers was not unexpected since they don't have Leonard and the new starters didn't log much time together during preseason. Still, the Clippers nearly beat the Warriors on the road coming from 19 points down before losing, 115-113. The Clippers fell behind the Grizzlies by 16 points yet made a comeback before falling, 120-114. So LA has fight. The Clippers just need to knock down more shots because they've had open looks. I expect that to happen here against the Trail Blazers, who aren't good defensively and didn't look good in preseason. This is Portland's first road game of the season. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS during their last four road games against the Clippers. LA has the backcourt defenders in Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe to keep Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in check.
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10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | Top | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 13 m | Show |
This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. Carson Wentz quietly is having a good season. He has just one interception, fewest of any starting quarterback, and has thrown multiple TD passes in each of his last three games. The Colts' stud offensive line is getting healthier. Jonathan Taylor gives Indy the best running back on the field by far. This is a huge game for Colts' star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner going against his former team. The 49ers have lost their last six home games. They are 0-8 ATS as home chalk. I find Kyle Shanahan to be perhaps the most overrated coach in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo is back at QB. Trey Lance isn't expected to play due to a knee injury. Garoppolo is much easier to game plan against. He wasn't mobile to begin with and now he's returning from a calf injury. The 49ers have yet to find their lead running back and star tight end George Kittle is on the injured list. The Colts are plus 7 in takeaways/giveaways. The 49ers, by contrast, have a minus-5 turnover ratio. The 49ers have multiple injuries in their secondary. There's a chance of rain and wind in the 10-15 mph range. This favors the better rushing team, which the Colts are because of Taylor. |
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10-24-21 | Celtics -5.5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Boston and its new coach, Ime Udoka, are in need of a victory at 0-2. The Rockets are off a rare victory. Houston isn't going to win many games this season, but it did beat another bottom-feeder, Oklahoma City, in blowout fashion two days ago. The Rockets finished last season 0-8 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are on high urgency alert having lost their opening in double-overtime to the Knicks and then running out of gas against the Raptors in a 115-83 home loss this past Friday. The Celtics were booed by their fans and Udoka ripped into his team. Expect a strong performance from Boston today against a very weak opponent who doesn't have much of a home-court advantage. |
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10-24-21 | Texans +18 v. Cardinals | 5-31 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 42 m | Show | |
As the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Cardinals deserve a break. They get one here. This is a rest stop for Arizona. The Cardinals came away with two huge division victories against the Rams and 49ers before going on the road against the Browns. The Cardinals didn't take their foot off the pedal defeating Cleveland, 37-14, last week. After this game, the Cardinals host the Packers on Thursday in a stand-alone nationally televised marquee matchup. Then Arizona goes to San Francisco for a rematch against the 49ers. The media may play up the DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt angle of facing their former team, but in truth the Cardinals can mail this one in - and they know it. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills has had 18 quarters of starting experience now. But, really, this entire handicap is based on a fade of Arizona in this monster price range and in a flat spot. The Cardinals have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times they've been a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury.
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10-23-21 | Pistons +8.5 v. Bulls | 82-97 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Short revenge for Detroit. The teams just met four days ago in Detroit and the Bulls won, 94-88. The Pistons shot 40 percent from the floor and 21 percent from 3-point range yet lost by only six points. Chicago is much improved. But this is a flat spot for the 2-0 Bulls after they just whipped the Pelicans, 128-112, at home last night. This marks the Bulls' third game in four days and second in two days. Detroit hasn't played since losing to the Bulls this past Wednesday. The Pistons won't have Cade Cunningham, but they still have promising young talent in Isaiah Stewart, Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey. |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the unbeaten Aztecs, especially if getting more than a field goal, in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. There are no secrets here. These teams are going to be running - a lot. San Diego State has the superior run defense and the best running back in Greg Bell. The Aztecs rank No. 1 in the country in run defense. They are holding foes to only 16 points a game. The Falcons are favored because of home field and the Aztecs switching quarterbacks going to Lucas Johnson, who began his career at Georgia Tech. Johnson can only be an upgrade on Jordan Brookshire.
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10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Minnesota has picked up its game since a Week 4 upset loss to Bowling Green. Since that defeat the Gophers pulled their own upsets knocking off Purdue on the road and Nebraska with both victories coming by seven points. Tanner Morgan finally is showing something at quarterback for Minnesota. The Gophers' offensive line is opening holes for their running backs no matter who carries the ball and Minnesota's defense has allowed just 12.5 points in its last four games. Maryland's confidence is down after blowout losses to Iowa and Ohio State by a combined 96 points. The Gophers hold a big coaching edge, too, with PJ Fleck versus Mike Locklsley. The Terrapins have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a road 'dog.
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10-23-21 | Eastern Michigan -3.5 v. Bowling Green | 55-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is 4-3 and needs this game if it wants to make a bowl game, which is a big deal for the Eagles. The Eagles are averaging a respectable 29.6 points a game. Bowling Green ranks 111th in run defense. The Falcons have gone downhill since upsetting Minnesota a month ago losing their last three games, all by 7 or more points to MAC foes Kent State, Akron and Northern Illinois. The Falcons failed to win a conference game last year. If you count just FBS schools, the Falcons have lost 17 of their last 19 home games. The Eagles are far from being a great team. But they are decent enough to cover this short road number against this sinking opponent. |
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10-22-21 | Suns v. Lakers | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Both the Suns and Lakers lost their opening games. I'm expecting the Lakers to get well in this second game of their season being home and in revenge mode against the Suns, who eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Lakers are healthy this time around with Anthony Davis back in the lineup. LA upgraded its roster adding Russell Westbrook. He should be more settled in after not playing well in the Lakers', 121-114, loss to the Warriors. The Suns didn't look good in a 110-98 home loss to the Nuggets two days ago. I don't think the Suns will be as good as they were last season when everything fell into place for them.
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10-22-21 | Pelicans v. Bulls -6 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bulls are below the radar right now, a much improved team not getting enough respect from the linesmaker. Chicago added DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball to go with emerging superstar Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls covered against the Pistons on the road in their opener despite shooting 43 percent from the floor and hitting 30 percent of their 3-pointers. New Orleans, on the other hand, isn't going to get good until it gets Zion Williamson back. He's recovering from surgery for a broken foot. The Pelicans have a new bench and lack experience. They aren't likely to have Josh Hart, Williamson's replacement, after he suffered a quad injury in the Pelicans' opening game, a 117-97 home loss to the 76ers.
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10-21-21 | Tulane v. SMU -13.5 | Top | 26-55 | Win | 100 | 69 h 1 m | Show |
Tulane is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last four games. The Green Wave have lost their last two games by 23 points to East Carolina and by 18 to Houston. Now the Green Wave go on the road to face a motivated SMU team that wants to prove itself as the best team in the American Athletic Conference and a legitimate top-25 team. The Mustangs are ranked No. 21 in the currentThe Associated Press poll. Not only are the Mustangs home, but this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Tulane ranks among the bottom-eight in points allowed at 40.2 and yards giving up more than 475 per game. QB Tanner Mordecia has come through in a big way for the Mustangs. SMU ranks in the top-10 in scoring at 40.7 and in yards gained. The Green Wave are averaging 23.2 points in their last four games. SMU should be good for at least 40 points here. Tulane isn't going to be able to keep up.
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10-20-21 | Kings +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Portland could start slow under new coach Chauncey Billups. The Trail Blazers struggled through preseason going 0-4. Billups was quoted as saying Portland is further away than he thought they might be at this stage. The Kings have talent and depth. I'm expecting improvement from them. Sacramento went 4-0 in preseason. One of the Kings' preseason victories was 107-93 against the Trail Blazers although Damien Lillard and CJ McCollum didn't play. A key for the Kings is better defense. Ball hawking rookie Davion Mitchell can make an impact on defense. Portland enters this season having failed to cover eight of the past 11 times as a home favorite.
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10-20-21 | Bulls -5 v. Pistons | 94-88 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Both the Bulls and Pistons were bad last season. The Pistons still are going to be bad with the youngest lineup in the NBA. The Bulls, though, should be much improved. Chicago has surrounded emerging superstar Zach LaVine with veteran stars DeMar DeRozan and Nkila Vucevic while solving its point guard issue by acquiring Lonzo Ball. The Bulls looked good in preseason going 4-0. They should have no trouble covering this small number against the Pistons, who are unlikely to have rookie Cade Cunningham, the first overall pick in the draft. Cunningham hasn't been able to go through a full practice this week because of an ankle injury.
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10-19-21 | Nets +1 v. Bucks | Top | 104-127 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference heading into the season. The Nets have the greater motivation having lost in seven games to the Bucks in the playoffs. The Nets had a 2-0 series lead, but then were struck by injuries. Aside from Kyrie Irving, the Nets are at full strength now. Brooklyn signed free agent guard Patty Mills to fill the void during Irving's absence. Mills is a solid role contributor. The Bucks are home, but that may not be the positive you would think. It's ring night where the Milwaukee players receive their championship rings. That's often a mental distraction and provides the opposition added incentive. Credit to the Bucks for what they accomplished last season. But I'm not convinced they are better than Brooklyn when the Nets have a healthy Kevin Durant and James Harden.
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10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8. The Titans' bottom 10 defense isn't going to be able to stop mobile Josh Allen, who has the luxury of excellent play-calling from offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, after not slowing down rookies Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson the past two weeks. Derrick Henry continues to be the best running back in the NFL. Henry's usefulness, though, is greatly reduced if the Titans have to play from behind as I anticipate. The Bills' pass rush is much improved and Ryan Tanneheill has been sacked a league-high 20 times. The Bills have won by double-digits in 10 of their last 11 regular season games. Any talk of a Bills' letdown after their great win against Kansas City last week is crazy. Not only is this a Monday night game, but Buffalo has revenge for a 42-16 loss to Tennessee last year. |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 98 h 60 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are the NFL's lone unbeaten team. By the time this game finishes, I highly doubt Arizona still will be without a loss. This game sets up well for the Browns. Cleveland easily is the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Cardinals rank 28th in run defense. Kyler Muray has been carrying the one-dimensional Cardinals. He's bothered by a shoulder injury in his passing arm and is likely to be without his injured center Rodney Hudson. Early reports are the Browns will have a number of their banged-up defensive players available for this game. The warm-weather Cardinals are traveling into heavy wind.
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10-17-21 | Mercury v. Sky -4 | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days.
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10-17-21 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 52 m | Show |
No surprise the Chiefs have been terrible on defense. Big surprise Washington is giving up the second-most points in the league at 31 per game. Washington has only three takeaways after recording 23 last season. The Chiefs' offense can cover for their defense. Washington's offense can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. That's asking way too much of erratic backup QB Taylor Heinicke, especially given that he could missing the right side of his offensive line with Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff out and tackle Sam Cosmi questionable. Kansas City should have its focus for this non-conference matchup coming off an embarrassing, 38-20, home loss on national TV to the Bills this past Sunday night. Washington was just picked apart by Jameis Winston in a 33-22 home loss to the Saints this past Sunday. Mahomes is far better than Winston and has far superior receiving weapons even if Tyreek Hill doesn't play. Washington has yet to get its secondary straightened out. Washington ranks last in home attendance so it doesn't have much of a home field advantage.
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10-16-21 | Hawaii +14.5 v. Nevada | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
Hawaii has the right ingredients to hang with Nevada. I'm fully expecting starting QB Chevan Cordeiro to be behind center. Head coach Todd Graham expects that, too. But I'm fine if the Rainbow Warriors have to use backup QB Brayden Schager, who threw a pair of TD passes and no interceptions in Hawaii's upset win against Fresno State, 27-24. That was two weeks ago. The Rainbow Warriors were idle last week. Hawaii has some underrated running backs in Dae Dae Hunter and Dedrick Parson, who can take advantage of Nevada's less-than-stellar run defense. The Warriors also have pass defense to bother Carson Strong. Hawaii has come up with 16 takeaways, which was tied for third-most in the nation entering Friday. The Wolfpack will have to contend with Calvin Turner Jr., perhaps the best all-around and most dynamic player in the Mountain West Conference. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering the past five times.
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10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This isn't 2020 when San Jose State had a magical season winning all seven of their regular season games. The Spartans are way down this year because their offense has gone into the tank. QB Nick Starkel has missed the last two games and is questionable for this matchup. Starkel hasn't played well. Spartans backup QB Nick Nash did not look good in losing to Colorado State, 32-14, last week. The Spartans rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points a game and are 113th in total yards. They have scored fewer than 18 points in four of their five games versus Division I teams. San Jose has yet to cover against any of the five Division I opponents they've played. San Diego State is 5-0, winning with a strong running game and solid defense. Greg Bell is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. The Spartans are minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Aztecs have 18 sacks and seven interceptions.
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10-13-21 | Sky v. Mercury -3.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home.
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State -4 v. UL-Lafayette | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Now that I don't have to lay more than four points, I'm going to get involved with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are the more well-rounded team and have more quality victories. They've defeated Marshall and own a blowout victory against Georgia State. Lafayette defeated South Alabama by two points and didn't look impressive in beating Nicholls State and Georgia Southern. Appalachian State has topped 500 yards in each of its last three games. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS with their lone cover occurring versus Ohio. Their offense is down from last season. They also have kicking problems. Their regular kicker is out for the year and their backup, Nate Snyder, missed two field goals and an extra point in their last game. The Mountaineers have revenge motivation, too, after losing, 24-21, last year. Prior to that game, the Mountaineers were 8-0 versus Lafayette.
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10-11-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
It's very close between these two teams, despite the inflated spread on the Dodgers. The big-market Dodgers with their dazzling array of super talent are always going to carry a high price. I feel very comfortable taking 1 1/2 runs with the Giants on the run line especially with them being the visitor and thus assured of getting nine innings worth of at bats. San Francisco is 6-4 at Dodger Stadium this season. Another reason for this huge price is the Dodgers are pitching Max Scherzer while San Francisco is going with southpaw Alex Wood. My handicap is on the Giants not against the Dodgers. I certainly respect LA and Scherzer, a worthy Hall of Famer. But the guy is 37 and he did give up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, during his last two regular-season starts. Scherzer gave up one run on three hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the Dodgers' wild-card game. Scherzer threw 94 pitches in those 4 1/3 innings. Lifetime versus the Giants, Scherzer is 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 11 starts. The Giants are an amazing 40-15 in their last 55 road games against a righty starter. Wood has been solid for San Francisco going 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 26 starts. Wood, a former Dodger, has a 3.05 career ERA at Dodger Stadium throwing 250 2/3 innings there. The Dodgers ranked eighth among National League teams in batting against lefties and were ninth in on-base percentage against southpaws. |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects. Jackson is an improved passer, making him even more lethal. He gives the Ravens a monster QB edge against Carson Wentz, who has been turnover-prone and dealing with injuries to both of his ankles. Jackson was 22-for-37 passing for 316 yards on the road last week against a very good Denver defense. The Colts' defense isn't as good ad Denver's and the Ravens are home. It's the Colts' third straight road game. The Ravens rank No. 2 in special teams, according to Football Outsiders, and their defense is getting healthier. They should be able to bottle up the Colts' ground attack and apply pressure to Wentz because Indy is without its best offensive lineman, stud guard Quenton Nelson, and also could be missing center Ryan Kelly because of a groin injury and tackle Braden Smith because of foot and thumb injuries. All of my checkmarks go to the Ravens. So I'm confident in laying a touchdown with them at home against this opponent. |
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10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton -4.5 | 24-23 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Toronto is playing better having won a season-high two in a row. Both of those victories were achieved at home with the latter occurring just this past Wednesday against 2-6 Ottawa. Now the Argos have to play just five days later - and on the road in a very tough away setting for this Canadian Thanksgiving Day game. Toronto has lost and failed to cover in each of its last three away games. One of those road losses was to Hamilton, 32-19, on Sept. 6. ''I know we're going to be going into it tired,'' Argos coach Ryan Dinwiddie said about this matchup. ''We just have to make sure we're not mentally tired.'' Hamilton last played on Oct. 2 when it was upset at home by Montreal in overtime. The Tiger-Cats are anxious to redeem themselves following that tough loss, which ended an 11-game home win streak. The Tiger-Cats are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. The return of QB Jeremiah Masoli, strong home field and nine days of rest and preparation compared to just five days for Toronto makes the Tiger-Cats the right side especially given the Argos' poor road history. Toronto is 11-25-1 ATS during its past 37 road contests. The Argos are 2-7-1 ATS the past 10 times they've played in Hamilton. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Perhaps down the road, the Chiefs will become the best team in the NFL again. Right now Kansas City can't make that distinction given how bad its defense is. But the Bills can. They are looking great on both sides of the ball. I regard the Bills as the best team in the NF. So I'll gladly accept any points coming to them in this rematch of the AFC title game. The Chiefs were better than the Bills back then. They aren't now. The Bills give up the fewest points, yards and passing yards in the NFL. Their offense can trade points against any opponent. The Chiefs are potent as ever on offense, although Patrick Mahomes already has five interceptions. Buffalo leads the NFL in takeways with 10. Kansas City rates second-to-last in points and yards allowed. The Chiefs have given up 29 or more points in every game. They rank last in yards per play allowing 6.87. The Bills are first in that category holding foes to 4.0 yards per play. Buffalo has covered 12 of its last 15 games. The Chiefs are just the opposite going 3-12 ATS. Kansas City also is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games.
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 48 m | Show |
Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance behind center, I want the 49ers going for me here. San Francisco is 10-4 ATS the past 14 times as an underdog and catch the Cardinals, the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, fat and happy after they ended an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with their impressive, 37-20, victory last Sunday. San Francisco is 2-2, but aren't that far from being 4-0. They nearly pulled off a comeback against the Packers and they outgained the Seahawks by 223 yards in their one-score loss to Seattle last week. The 49ers have held their last three foes - Eagles, Packers and Seahawks - to an average of 305 yards. Kyler Murray is the early frontrunner for MVP. The Cardinals have played three weak defenses, though, in the Titans, Vikings and Jaguars. Kliff Kingsbury has been terrible in this role as the Cardinals are 1-8 ATS as a home favorite during the Kingsbury era.
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10-10-21 | Sky +3 v. Mercury | 91-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too.
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10-10-21 | Titans v. Jaguars +4.5 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 7 m | Show | |
This is the Jaguars' biggest game of the season. Something Urban Meyer is well aware of. Indications are the Jaguars have had a good week of practice despite the distractions of Meyer. Trevor Lawrence is getting better at protecting the ball. He faces a very weak defense here. Zach Wilson enjoyed success against the Titans last Sunday. So should Lawrence. Tennessee gives up 27.8 points a game. That's just one fewer point per game than the Jaguars allow. Jacksonville is capable. They led both the Cardinals and Bengals by nine and 14 points before losing. Given their injury situation, the Titans should not be laying more than a field goal on the road. Maybe the Titans get back A.J. Brown, but they are likely to still be without Julio Jones and underrated punter Brett Kern. Tennessee also is banged-up in its offensive line. The Titans have yielded 17 sacks, most in the NFL entering this week.
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10-09-21 | LSU +3 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
Great job by Kentucky upsetting Florida last week. Mark Stoops has made the Wildcats respectable. But I don't see Kentucky taking out LSU, too, just a week later and coming right after the glow of its Florida victory. I understand the Tigers are way down from their national championship team of two seasons ago. We're still talking LSU, though, with its great athletes, talent and speed. LSU QB Max Johnson has the ability and arm to dent a Kentucky secondary that hasn't really been tested fully yet. The Wildcats don't have much of a pass rush either. I prefer Kentucky when in a 'dog role. Before upsetting Florida, the Wildcats had defeated South Carolina by six points and Tennessee Chattanooga by only five points as a 33-point home favorite.
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10-09-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech | 32-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
Cincinnati exposed Notre Dame last week for what the Irish really are, a team whose luck ran out when they met a really good defense. Notre Dame meets another outstanding defense here in Virginia Tech. The Hokies give up the 10th-fewest points per game in the country. They held Sam Howell and North Carolina to 10 points. The Tar Heels are averaging 44.5 points in their other four games. The Irish can't dent a really strong defense because they lack a star quarterback, have a mediocre-at-best offensive line and no star wide receivers. Their best pass catcher is tight end is Michael Mayer and he's banged-up dealing with a groin injury. Virginia Tech also has the advantage of having had two weeks to rest and prepare. The Hokies were idle last week.
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10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks +10 v. Winnipeg | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Winnipeg is the best team in the Canadian Football League at 7-1. Edmonton has been one of the most disappointing at 2-5. The Elks are in desperation mode to turn around their wretched season. They get back their star QB, Trevor Harris, who has missed the past two games. The line is at double-digits. It's enough to get me involved with the Elks. Winnipeg has a very strong home field. But the Elks' two victories have come in away games with upset wins against Calgary and British Columbia. The Bombers have a two-game lead in the Western Division so they don't have the urgency Edmonton does. Edmonton has dangerous skill position weapons. The quality of these weapons is raised with the return of Harris. Elks running back James Wilder Jr. leads the CFL in rushing. Derel Walker, Greg Ellingson, Teuvan Smith and Shai Ross are all talented receivers. The Blue Bombers are going to be without Kenny Lawler, their star wide receiver who leads the CFL in receiving yards. He is suspended. There's also some unique scheduling here. Winnipeg already has beaten Edmonton, 37-22, on Sept. 18. The teams meet again next week in Edmonton. So the Blue Bombers may not want to show too much, or run up a score against the Elks knowing they'll be playing right away again.
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10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
Cincinnati is coming off one of its biggest wins ever, a road victory last week against then No. 9 ranked Notre Dame. No doubt the Bearcats are good, darn good. But the linesmaker isn't giving Temple enough respect here. Like other schools, Temple had its 2020 season disrupted by COVID-19. They weren't even able to scrimmage until October. So the Owls' 1-6 2020 season is not indicative of who they are. Temple has been well-coached and enjoyed good success during the previous five years before 2020. Things are back to normal for Temple. The Owls have a winning record. They showed their potential, upsetting Memphis, 34-31, as 11-point home 'dogs last week. Cincinnati has the far superior defense, but the Owls don't lack firepower. Wide receiver Jaden Blue is a pro prospect. QB D'Wan Mathis is off his finest performance completing 35 passes to a dozen different receivers against Memphis for 322 yards and three TD's. The two teams did not meet last year. But in three meetings from 2017-2019, Temple beat Cincinnati twice and lost, 15-13, in 2019 when the Bearcats returned a 99-yard defensive conversion in the fourth quarter. The Owls have covered 68 percent of the time they've been a road 'dog the last 31 times. It's asking too much of Cincinnati to cover this large of a number against an underrated foe following one of their all-time best victories.
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10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
Adam Wainwright goes against Max Scherzer in this winner-take-all playoff game. The oddsmaker is expecting a low-scoring game given this total. That sure makes sense given the pitching matchup and rested bullpens. I can easily envision a 4-3 type of game. The Dodgers are once again overpriced here. They are so overpriced that I can afford some insurance by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the underdog Cardinals and not have to pay a premium price to do it. I have the utmost respect for Scherezer, who has been great since joining the Dodgers going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA. This isn't a fade on him, but a value play on the Cardinals, who have been fantastic down the stretch going 35-16 during their last 51 games. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Cardinals would be a mind-blowing 21-1 in their last 22 games! St. Louis is 11-1 the past 12 times as an underdog. They are 17-4 in their last 21 games facing a righty starter, including winning the past eight times. The 40-year-old Wainwright showed he's far from washed up. He is 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA . He was tremendous down the stretch going 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA during his last eight starts. Career-wise against the Dodgers, Wainwright is 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, including 14 starts.
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10-06-21 | Ottawa v. Toronto -8.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Toronto should take care of business at home against Ottawa. The Argos are 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS at home this season. The Redblacks have the worst defense in the CFL and are below average on offense. Ottawa has been outscored by 82 points in its seven games. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Argos, though, won't be looking past Ottawa. The Redblacks and their new QB, Caleb Evans, got Toronto's attention with an upset home victory against Edmonton last week. Evans threw 3 TD's in that contest while showing off excellent mobility. That was his first CFL game. Chris Jones is a defensive consultant for Toronto and one of the sharper defensive minds in the league. He now has film on Evans. I'm sure the Argos will be looking to keep Evans inside the pocket. Before the Redblacks sprung their upset of Edmonton, they had lost and failed to cover five straight games with all of those defeats coming by 12 or more points. Ottawa is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and has failed to cover the past eight times facing an Eastern Conference team.
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The oddsmaker considers these teams even if you factor three points for home field advantage. The Chargers have a weaker home-field edge than most teams. Still, even given that, I believe the Chargers are superior to Las Vegas. Credit to Derek Carr and to Las Vegas for opening 3-0. That hasn't occurred for the Raiders in 19 years. But in studying this matchup, I give the key checkmarks to the Chargers. I like Justin Herbert better than Carr. The Chargers have the best all-purpose running back on the field in Austin Ekeler. LA also rates a strong wide receiving edge with Keenan Allen and a rejuvenated Mike Williams. Those two have been one of the best wide receiving duos in the NFL this season. LA also has a much improved offensive line, while the Raiders' offensive line still is in transition. Defensively, the Raiders are middle-of-the-pack. The Chargers give up four fewer points per game than the Raiders, have the better pass defense and double the number of takeaways Las Vegas has. Joey Bosa is the best pass rusher on the field and Derwin James would be the best player in either secondary if he can suit up, which he expects to do. I have serious doubts about how good the Raiders defense is going to look on the road against Herbert. The Chargers have proven vulnerable on the ground. Las Vegas, however, ranks among the bottom-eight in rushing. LA upset Washington and Kansas City on the road. The Chargers held the potent Cowboys to 20 points. Dallas is averaging 35.3 points in its three other games. The Raiders had a nice upset win at home against the Ravens in overtime opening week. The Raiders then upset the Steelers on the road. That win, though, doesn't look as impressive now considering the Steelers are 1-3 and have been outscored by 26 points. The Raiders then barely escaped the Dolphins and backup QB Jacoby Brissett winning, 31-28 in overtime, at home last week. The Dolphins are 1-3. They have managed just 34 points in their three games not against Las Vegas.
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10-03-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 31 m | Show |
Forget all the hype leading up to this matchup, the most anticipated regular season game in years. This is a a one-sided matchup. The Patriots can't come close to matching Tampa Bay's firepower and New England's defense, while good, is not great. The Patriots can defend well against bad offenses and bad QB's. New England can't stop an elite offense and quarterback such as Tom Brady, though. Bill Belichick doesn't have enough chess pieces to stop Brady from effectively using Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, who has scored as many TD's as the Patriots have produced as a team. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' top cornerback, remains out. Game manager rookie QB Mac Jones isn't going to be able to keep up. The Buccaneers have an elite run defense. Jones lacks experience and explosive wideouts. His most dependable all-purpose running back, James White, is sidelined with a hip injury. The Patriots have no ability to play from behind. I'm expecting a Tampa Bay blowout.
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
Seattle swept San Francisco last season and the Seahawks should win this game because of Russell Wilson. He has the arms, legs and intelligence to take advantage of the 49ers' cluster injury situation in their secondary. Wilson is on pace for career highs in many of the major categories. The 49ers have trouble with mobile QB's. Wilson gives the Seahawks a monster QB edge. The 49ers are a running team lacking a lead runner due to injuries. Seattle has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 13-5-1 ATS during the last 19 meetings. The 49ers also have dropped their last five games at Levi's Stadium. |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 33 m | Show | |
After looking decent during preseason, the Jets have looked terrible on offense. Keep in mind, though, New York's schedule. The Jets' first three opponents were the Panthers, Patriots and Broncos. Those are three strong defenses. Now New York steps way down in defensive class. Zach Wilson has the receiving weapons to take advantage of the Titans' weak secondary and lack of a pass rush. The Titans are likely going to be missing their two star wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries. The 0-3 Jets are in desperation mode while the Titans are fat and happy coming off a big win against the Colts and with a division game against the Jaguars on deck.
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10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -16.5 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 65 h 32 m | Show | |
Yes this is the largest point spread of the season. It's still not enough points for the Texans, though. Josh Allen is back in form - as he showed in a 22-point victory against Washington last week - and the Bills' defense is playing at a high level with an experienced secondary and promising young pass rushers. Rookie QB Davis Mills isn't going to be able to dent Buffalo's defense that ranks fourth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Texans are conservative both offensively and defensively in an effort to hide their lack of talent. The Bills are perfectly suited to attack the Texans' zone coverages because Allen likes to throw short to Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, all of whom are adept in finding soft spots in coverage. Houston was competitive at the start of the season. But that was with Tyrod Taylor behind center and playing easier opponents. The Texans are at least three TD's worse on the road than Buffalo.
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10-03-21 | Sun -3.5 v. Sky | 83-86 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Connecticut is the top defensive team in the WNBA. I want the Sun's big-game experience and pedigree going for me today. The Sun tied the series at 1-1 apiece by defeating Chicago, 79-68, at home this past Thursday. Alyssa Thomas was a key, playing in just her fourth game since tearing her Achilles in January. Connecticut won that game by 11 points despite only getting four points from Jonquel Jones, who is due for a bigger performance. That was 15 points below Jones' season average. The Sky has failed to cover in 17 of their last 22 home games. |
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10-02-21 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary +2.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
Circumstances set up well here for Calgary. The Stampeders haven't played in two weeks. They draw Saskatchewan off a huge upset road win against BC last week. This is only the Roughriders' third road game and first in consecutive weeks. They lost their first road game, 33-9, to Winnipeg on Sept. 11. Calgary desperately needs this game being 2-5 looking up at three teams in the West Division. I have confidence that veteran QB Bo Levin Mitchell is in line for a big performance following a bye. He's healthy now and proven to be one of the top QB's in the league. Saskatchewan is banged up defensively both on its line and in the secondary. The Stampeders have always been a strong 'dog play covering 69 percent of the time in that role during the past 51 instances. They are 3-1 ATS as a 'dog this season and 6-1 ATS as a home 'dog the past seven times.
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10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
Both Iowa and Maryland are 4-0. But there are reasons why Iowa is ranked fifth in the country in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while Maryland is outside of the top 25. The Hawkeyes are far superior defensively. The Hawkeyes are surrendering just 11 points a game, third-best in the nation. Maryland has played a weak schedule. The Terrapins haven't faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of Iowa. Maryland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games. Iowa has thrived in this role, a proven commodity with a 20-6 ATS mark the past 26 times as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes' last four road victories against Power 5 conference opponents all were by double-digits. Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards and completion percentage. But he's not as good as his brother, Tua. The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten with six interceptions. I would take their defense over Tagovailoa. Iowa is the better coached team and owns huge edges on both lines of scrimmage.
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09-30-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The Dodgers have lived up to their super team status. They are 38-13 since August. The Padres had high hopes of challenging the Dodgers. That didn't materialize. Now the Padres are a dead team, eliminated from playoff contention and 1-10 in their last 11 games. They have lost eight in a row to the Dodgers. I see the Dodgers rolling over San Diego again in a pitching matchup of Vince Velasquez versus Tony Gonsolin. The Padres have discovered the hard way what the Phillies found to be true - Velasquez is not a big league starter. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA. He's 0-2 with the Padres with a 9.00 ERA. He's made eight career appearances against the Dodgers and is 1-3 with a 7.88 ERA. Gonsolin is one of many outstanding young pitchers the Dodgers have. He's 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts. At home, Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA. He's made six starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Career-wise versus San Diego, Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings.
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09-29-21 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
I see the Red Sox bouncing back in a big way after losing, 4-2, to the Orioles on Tuesday. Boston has beaten Baltimore 12 of the past 14 times. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. He's 6-1 in his last seven starts. He has a 3.88 ERA on the season. The Red Sox get to face rookie southpaw Zac Lowther, who has been overmatched this season. Lowther has a 7.66 ERA. He has given up 10 runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. Boston ranks third in the American League in batting average against lefties. Each of the Red Sox last seven victories have been by more than one run.
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The Cowboys have marquee skill position talent. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times laying points and have much to prove defensively after last season's disaster. The Eagles are a blue-collar team by comparison. They lack the superstar offensive talent Dallas possesses. Philly, however, is tough in the trenches even without injured defensive end Brandon Graham and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks. The Cowboys are without their top pass rusher, DeMarcus Lawrence. Jalen Hurts is the best running quarterback in the NFC. The Eagles have the style of offense that can grind the Cowboys down while playing ball-control. Philadelphia's defense has been outstanding holding the Falcons and 49ers to a combined average of 11.5 points. Early returns on Eagles' first-year head coach Nick Sirianni are positive. This is the Eagles' lone scheduled nationally televised game. I see them producing a strong effort and getting the right result even though they aren't nearly as fancy as Dallas.
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09-26-21 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 129 h 57 m | Show |
The Packers got back on track Monday. They led the league in scoring last season and their offense was back in sync after being rusty opening week in a shocking blowout loss to the Saints. The 49ers are heavily run-oriented. However, they have a cluster injury problem at running back. Game manager Jimmy Garoppolo needs a strong running attack to set up his passing rather than the other way around. Aaron Rodgers versus Garoppolo is a monster mismatch. The 49ers have been terrible as home favorites going 5-20-1 ATS in that role.
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
Justin Fields makes his first NFL start. He's an exciting talent, but he's not nearly NFL-ready. Not helping matters for Fields is Chicago's offensive line isn't ready either. The Browns are better defensively than they have shown. I regard Myles Garrett as the AFC's most feared pass rusher along with T.J. Watt. The Browns are the only team in the NFL sporting a top-three grade in both passing and run blocking. That's how good their offensive line is. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be the best running tandem in the league. Chubb has scored at least one rushing TD in eight consecutive games. Baker Mayfield is leading the NFL in completion percentage and now gets Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time this season. The Bears yielded Matthew Stafford's highest career passer rating opening week. Beckham is an electrifying presence who is sure to fire up the home crowd. The Bears' plight will be made worse if run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman still can't make his season debut because of a knee injury.
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills -7 | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
Taylor Heinicke is a nice story. But Josh Allen is close to superstar status. I see Allen getting right and Buffalo's defense, which looks far more like its dominant self of 2019 than last season, handling Heinicke and a much more limited Washington offense. Washington's defense has yet to live up to expectations. Buffalo has upgraded its pass rush to go with a strong back seven on defense. This is Heinicke's first road start. The Bills have the defensive coaching with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier and talent to make it very rough on him, while Allen gets untracked against Washington's mediocre linebackers and average secondary.
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09-25-21 | Tennessee +20 v. Florida | 14-38 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida played an outstanding game last week nearly upsetting Alabama as a two-touchdown 'dog losing, 31-29. That was a physical game and the Gators nearly tied it at 31-31 but couldn't convert on a 2-point run with 3:41 left. Florida had fought back from a 21-3 deficit. I don't know how much the Gators will have left for this matchup. Tennessee looks much more dangerous under Josh Heupel. The Volunteers are off to a 3-0 start while averaging 42.7 points. I'm fine with whoever the Volunteers play at quarterback whether it's Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker. Tennessee is averaging 223 yards rushing a game. I'm not sure the oddsmaker has fully caught up to Tennessee. The combination of that and Florida being in somewhat of a letdown spot following the Alabama game, puts me on the Volunteers taking nearly three touchdowns.
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