Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-24-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.
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08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 145 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights have never lost in regulation to the Canucks in 10 meetings. I don't expect that pattern to change in this Game 1. Given that the Golden Knights are the superior team and are in a very good situational spot, I'm expecting a Las Vegas multi-goal win so I'd rather grab a nice plus price on the puck line than lay heavy juice. The Canucks just played this past Friday night when they eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champion Blues. That's a quick turnaround and a letdown spot. By contrast, the Golden Knights have been idle since Wednesday. Having four days to rest and prepare is huge at this stage. The Golden Knights opened their Stanley Cup playoffs with a 4-1 Game 1 victory against the Blackhawks, who had just got through upsetting the Oilers. I could envision the same type of victory here for the Golden Knights, who have a huge edge in depth and defense.
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08-23-20 | Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers | 110-106 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
The Celtics have shown and proven that there is a clear class difference between these two teams with the 76ers missing Ben Simmons. That much we know. The key question here is can Boston cover this large of a spread leading the series, 3-0? I do. The 76ers had their chance to win Game 3 and thus make it a series. But they didn't. They choked. The 76ers blew a lead with 2:14 left. Despite outrebounding Boston, 20-3 on the offensive glass, getting Jayson Tatum in foul trouble and shooting 10 more free throws than Boston, the 76ers still lost by eight points. So they didn't even cover as 6-point 'dogs. Boston should play better. The 76ers are cooked - and they know it. No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. I don't trust the 76ers' mental fragility. I think they are badly outcoached, too. A double-digit Boston victory should be in the offering here. |
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08-22-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting. If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field. On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court. I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood. The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team.
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08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | 130-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Let's go back to early in the second half of Game 1 with the Mavericks leading the Clippers by five points. It was at that point that Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks' best big man and second-best player, was unfairly ejected. That cost Dallas the game. The Mavericks then whipped the Clippers, 127-114, in Game 2 on Wednesday. It was clear Dallas was the superior team. Keep in mind there is no homecourt advantage because these games are all inside the Orlando bubble. This reduces the zig-zag theory of situational basketball where the losing team comes back to win. Now the matchups and coaching are more pure. So just where are the Clippers' advantages that justify them being made a mid-sized favorite for this Game 3? I can't find them. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. OK, two superstars. Luka Doncic and Porzingis give the Mavericks two stars, too, with Porzingis being the best big man on the court. You can make the argument that Doncic is as valuable as Leonard. Coaching? I'll take Rick Carlisle over Doc Rivers especially when it comes to matchup strategy. I consider Carlisle one of the more underrated coaches in the league, while the media-savvy Rivers gets far more publicity. Scoring? The Mavericks had the most efficient offense in NBA history. Bench? The Clippers are supposed to have the best bench in the league. But key reserve Montrezl Harrell isn't in full shape yet having just played two games since being out and starting point guard Patrick Beverley likely remains out due to a calf strain. Dallas' reserves outscored the Clippers' bench by 30 points in Game 2. Beverley's absence is huge. He's an ace defender. The Mavericks are guard heavy and tall in the backcourt.
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08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
You can pull out the fork. The 76ers are finished. Mentally fragile, missing star Ben Simmons, unable to win away from Philadelphia and totally outcoached by the Celtics, the 76rs aren't rising to upset Boston in this Game 3 after losing by eight points and 27 points during the first two games of this series. Minus Simmons, a tremendous two-way player, the 76ers are not only lost on offense but clueless defensively. They don't have the answers, nor the coaching acumen to stop the Celtics' pick-and-rolls and accurate perimeter shooting. It doesn't matter if the Celtics are minus Gordon Hayward. They are a deep team and the 76ers can't slow down Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. The 76ers are 12-28 away from home. They quit in Game 2. They don't have the matchup answers, nor ability to come up with an effective defensive game plan to stop the Celtics. Maybe the 76ers put forth a supreme effort here down 0-2 in the series. Maybe. But the Celtics still have way too many things in their favor to not cover this mid-range point spread number.
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08-20-20 | Thunder +3 v. Rockets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Whenever the Thunder are underdogs they get my first look - and in this case last look. I want the Thunder going for me today after the Rockets ambushed them, 123-108, on Tuesday. Oklahoma City is 41-20 ATS as an underdog. That's a long-term covering rate of 67 percent. The Thunder also are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they played after losing by more than 10 points. Houston was an underdog in Game 1. The Rockets have failed to cover eight of the last 11 times they've been favored. The Rockets fired 52 shots from 3-point range in Game 1. They connected on 38 percent. Houston shot 48 percent from the floor and made 89 percent of its free throws. The Rockets live-and-die with the 3-point shot. But Oklahoma City is ranked No. 3 in the NBA in 3-point defense holding foes to 34 percent. On the season, the Rockets shot 45.1 percent from the floor and made 34.5 percent of their 3-pointers. They also are a 79 percent shooting free throw team. So the Rockets were hotter than normal in Game 1. I see the Thunder being more prepared for the Rockets' various perimeter looks and for Houston to not overachieve with its shooting like it did in the opener. The Thunder surrenders six fewer points per game than the Rockets. Remember, too, that Russell Westbrook is out with a right quad injury. While Westbrook is sidelined, the Thunder could get back defensive ace Lugentz Dort. He's been out with a knee injury and is questionable for today's game. That would just be an added bonus if he were to play.
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08-19-20 | Mercury +6.5 v. Sparks | 74-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Diana Taurasi is rounding into shape and Phoenix doesn't lack for talent. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Mercury make a move starting with this game. LA is fat and happy right now. Derek Fisher is my least favorite coach in this league. Phoenix outscores LA on the season and has a strong inside presence with Britney Griner. The Mercury also is coming off their first two-day break since having three days in between their first and second games of the season. That extra day of rest should help them mentally and physically. The Sparks last played this past Saturday. That's too long of a break so they could be rusty.
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08-19-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-4 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks are an above .500 team, have won six in a row and are going with their best pitcher this season, Merrill Kelly. Kelly has allowed just one run in his last 12 2/3 innings. He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.91 ERA on the season. The A's are going with Jesus Luzardo, a highly-promising rookie who has been up and down. He has a 4.79 ERA. He's coming off a game where he allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Giants.
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08-19-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
The Mavericks are a dangerous team. Their record is 43-32. They have lost 13 times since Feb. 7 with more than half of those defeats occurring by 4 or fewer points. The Clippers beat the Mavericks, 118-110, this past Monday to open this series. Dallas lost by eight points despite opening the game being outscored, 18-2. The Mavericks lost despite a bogus ejection of Kristaps Porzingis, their second-best player and top big man, less than three minutes into the third quarter. LA has the better defense and more bench strength. However, the Mavericks finished with the highest-rated offense in NBA history. The Clippers are still working a number of their players back into the rotation after they missed the final regular season games in the bubble. This list includes Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley.
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08-18-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks have nothing to be ashamed of. They made the playoffs taking out the Oilers in round-robin play. The Blackhawks also didn't get swept by the Golden Knights during this Stanley Cup playoff series because they won Game 4 two days ago. But now the clock has struck midnight for Chicago. The Golden Knights could be the best team in hockey. They out-chanced the Blackhawks, 41-4, in losing this past Sunday despite playing perhaps their best game of the series. There is a huge class and depth difference in this series. The Blackhawks have some great veterans, but they also have a lot of youth and their third line can't compete with the Golden Knights' third line. Las Vegas is up 3-1 in the series despite not scoring a single power-play goal. That's due to change. The Golden Knights had the ninth-best power play during the regular season. Now the Golden Knights have added motivation after losing in their last game. The edges are all there, so I feel confident in backing the Golden Knights at a plus price laying 1 1/2 goals rather than laying heavy juice.
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08-18-20 | Aces -3 v. Sky | 82-84 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
The Aces were fortunate to play the sinking Mystics during their last game this past Saturday. Perhaps bothered by an early start time, they didn't play well. But now the Aces are fully rested and have revenge for their most frustrating defeat of the season - an 88-86 loss to Chicago on July 26. The Sky scored the final 11 points in that contest to pull out the victory. Las Vegas has won seven in a row. The Aces are the second-best team in the league right now behind only Seattle. The Aces lead the league in scoring and can take advantage of the turnover-prone Sky.
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08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Now it's time for the Bucks to get serious. The Raptors and Celtics, their main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown, each won their opening playoff games on Monday. Both covered the spread, too. A combination of urgency, Orlando injuries and the Magic's poor history of stepping up versus strong competition bodes well for the Bucks covering even as double-digit favorites. The Magic are 3-12 ATS the last 15 times going against above .500 opponents. The Bucks owned the Magic this season going 4-0 with a winning average margin of 17 points. The Bucks not only led the NBA in points per game at 118.7, but also gave up the fewest points in the paint. The formula to beat the Bucks is to be hot from 3-point range and be able to control Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Magic rank 25th in 3-point accuracy and lack a defensive stopper to deal with Antetokounmpo. Aaron Gordon is best suited to guard Antetokounmpo. Gordon, however, is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Not ideal when taking on arguably the NBA's best player. Gordon isn't the only player hurt for Orlando. Jonathan Isaac is out as is backup point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Both are strong defenders. The Magic are likely to fall behind and they lack the necessary firepower to get back into the game. This hurts them, too, if things turn into a fourth quarter garbage affair because the Bucks have an excellent bench. So I doubt Orlando's back-door capability.
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08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
The feeling here is the Celtics have been laying in the weeds. They are going to be dangerous in these playoffs and are a much better team than the 76ers especially with Philly missing injured Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid once again not 100 percent. Boston is 22-14 away from home. Philadelphia is 12-26. But the 76ers' problems don't end there. The Celtics own edges at four of the five starting spots with Simmons out. Philly's lone matchup edge is Embiid against Boston's lunch-pail centers Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Embiid suffered a bruised hand last Wednesday, too. So he might be hampered. The Celtics are loaded with athletic wing players. Simmons was the 76ers' best defensive player. Boston can set up mismatches all across the court and savvy coach Brad Stevens knows how to do that especially given extra time. The 76ers can't counter a playmaker like Kemba Walker, nor do they have the scorers to match Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Haywood. The 76ers didn't have enough time in the bubble to build the on-court chemistry needed to beat a high caliber opponent with their new starting lineup of Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Embiid, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton. Those five had limited minutes together during three of their last four seeding games. It doesn't bode well for the 76ers that they surrendered 53 points to T.J. Warren and 51 to Damian Lillard during the seeding games.
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08-16-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
The Mariners are back to being who we thought they would be. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games. Seattle has managed only nine runs in its last five games and just three runs during its last three games. Lance McCullers Jr. should be set up for success against the Mariners. McCullers looked great in his comeback from Tommy John surgery during his last start. That came against the Giants this past Tuesday giving up just one hit in seven scoreless innings. McCullers also is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 lifetime starts versus the Mariners. The Astros draw Seattle rookie Justus Sheffield. He has a high ceiling, but is being force-fed this season and taking his lumps. His ERA sits at 5.27.
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Lance Lynn isn't pitching this game for Texas. That's a buy sign on Colorado especially with German Marquez taking the mound. Marquez tamed the Rangers when he faced them opening day limiting Texas to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings. But Lynn beat the Rockies that day, 1-0. Lynn also defeated the Rockies, 3-2 on Friday. Marquez has been solid all season not giving up more than two earned runs during any of his four starts. He has a 2.08 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The same can't be said for Kyle Gibson, who is scheduled to make the start here for Texas. Gibson is 4-11 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 20 career interleague starts. This horrible mark doesn't include any games at Coors Fields either. This is the first time Gibson will pitch at the best hitting park in the majors. Gibson surrendered four runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Mariners during his last start five days ago. The Mariners rank 26th in scoring averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Rockies lead the majors in runs scored at 5.5. They also are No. 1 in batting average. So Gibson is stepping way up in class. The Rangers by the way, rank 28th in runs at 3.6. The Rockies are 9-4 during their last 13 home games while the Rangers are 3-9 in their past 12 road contests.
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08-15-20 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Blackhawks | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights took the Blackhawks' best punch in Game 2 on Thursday and still won, 4-3 in overtime. The Golden Knights blew a multiple goal lead in that game. I don't see that happening here. The Golden Knights' depth, playoff experience and defense is too much for the Blackhawks' mix of a few stars, playoff newcomers and lack of defense. So I'm going to take a plus price on the Golden Knights winning by more than one goal rather than lay heavy juice. When the Golden Knights win, it's often by more than one goal. That has been the case in eight of their last 11 victories.
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08-15-20 | Liberty +9.5 v. Lynx | 64-94 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a big revenge game for New York coach Walt Hopkins, who was a former assistant for the Lynx. Hopkins is a good coach and should have the Liberty fired up after they lost, 92-66, to Minnesota 10 days ago. The Liberty has looked better the last few games as they adjust to being without Sabrina Ionescu. The Lynx are without a key player, too - Syliva Fowles. She suffered a calf injury during an 87-77 loss to the Aces two days ago. That's a huge loss for Minnesota.
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Portland can be a dangerous No. 8 seed. But the Trail Blazers are not at their best when laying mid-range points. They are 6-13-1 ATS the past 20 times laying points to a below .500 opponent. So I'm liking underdog Memphis in this point spread range. The Grizzlies are in must-win mode and have the young talent to pull off the upset. They lack Portland's experience. That negative, though, is reduced by the matchup being played at a neutral site with no fans. If the Trail Blazers lose, they are not eliminated like the Grizzlies would be with a loss. As the No. 8 seed, the Trail Blazers would get another chance on Sunday to play the Grizzlies. Only then would Portland be eliminated if it were to lose. This is going to be the Trail Blazers' third game in five days. They have played three close games beating the shorthanded 76ers, Mavericks and depleted Nets by a combined seven points. Brooklyn nearly upset the Trail Blazers on Thursday, losing 134-133. The Grizzlies are more dangerous than the Nets. Memphis also will be in action for the third time in five days. However, the Grizzlies are younger and off a confidence-boosting victory against the Bucks on Thursday. The Grizzlies give up three fewer points per game than the Trail Blazers.
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08-14-20 | Sun +6 v. Sky | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
The Sun is playing much better and has short revenge. Connecticut is 3-1 in its last four games after opening 0-5. The Sun's lone defeat during their past four games was against Chicago. The Sky defeated the Sun, 100-93, this past Saturday. The Sky made 55.2 percent of their shots from the floor yet still won by just seven points. On the season, the Sky shoot 49 percent. That leads the league, but still is much lower than 55.2 percent.
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08-13-20 | Blazers v. Nets +10 | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Each team has gone a surprising 5-2 during the reboot. The line is large here because the Trail Blazers clinch the No. 8 seed in the West with a victory while the Nets' playoff spot is locked at No. 7 in the East. The Nets will meet the Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. So the assumption is the Trail Blazers will bury the Nets. That's an assumption I'm not buying into. First, let's examine Portland. The Trail Blazers are in the eighth spot in the West. They are 34-39, which is one-half game ahead of the Grizzlies and Suns. Those two teams are 33-39. The Spurs are still in the hunt at 32-38. The Grizzlies, Suns and Spurs all play afternoon games. The Trail Blazers-Nets is the lone night matchup. So there's a chance the Trail Blazers may already have clinched a playoff spot before they even play. The Grizzlies are facing the Bucks. The Suns are taking on the Mavericks. The Spurs draw the Jazz. Portland's intensity would go way down if its playoff spot already is determined. Portland coach Terry Stotts would likely heavily reduce the playing time of his starters, too, especially CJ McCollum, who is playing with a broken bone in his back. But let's say that scenario doesn't happen. The Nets still are very live here. They have gelled under interim coach Jacque Vaughn producing strong efforts while displaying excellent chemistry. Brooklyn has beaten both the Bucks and Clippers in the Orlando bubble. The Nets held out Caris LeVert, Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen during their victory against the equally depleted Magic two days ago. Word is all three of those players will be back against the Trail Blazers. Vaughn was quoted as saying, "We talked about having some rhythm going into the playoffs. So all guys in that starting unit will be available to start. We'll see how the game progresses, but I'm looking forward to getting some rhythm back on the floor." Damian Lillard draws all the publicity. But LeVert is an excellent player. Harris is underrated and Allen has thrived with increased minutes. The Nets also have been getting a major contribution from unheralded guard Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. He scored 26 points against the Bucks hitting 5 of 7 3-pointers. The Trail Blazers, even with motivation, aren't some dominant team that can easily cover double-digit spreads against spunky underdogs. They beat the Mavericks by three points and 76ers by three points in their last two games. The 76ers played without Ben Simmons and lost Joel Embiid in the first quarter.
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08-13-20 | Lynx +6 v. Aces | 77-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
These two teams are at the next tier below Seattle. Minnesota is the better rebounding team and gives up 4 1/2 fewer points per game than Las Vegas. The Lynx also are better coached. I can see them frustrating the Aces. The Lynx are 5-1 when Sylvia Fowles plays and she is back healthy. The Lynx have covered six of their last nine regular season games as an underdog.
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08-13-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks upset the Oilers in their qualifying series. But they are very much outclassed in this series. That showed in the Golden Knights' 4-1 victory in Game 1. Look for the Golden Knights to roll to another multiple goal victory aided by their top goal and point scorer, Max Pacioretty. He missed Las Vegas' three round-robin games, but played in Game 1. Pacioretty should play better in this game. The Blackhawks don't play clean enough on the backend to keep the Golden Knights from scoring. Las Vegas is averaging 4.5 goals in its last six games. The Golden Knights also have a huge defense advantage with Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, Alec Martinez and Nate Schmidt.
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08-12-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Canadiens for taking out the Penguins during the qualifying rounds. But now reality strikes for the Canadiens. They draw the Flyers. The Flyers are deserving of being the top seed in the Eastern Conference. But are they deserving of laying 1 1/2 goals against Montreal in this first game matchup? Put it this way: Each of the Flyers' last 10 victories have been by more than one goal. If you discount a 2-0 loss to the Bruins, the Flyers are averaging 4.2 goals during their last 17 games. They are giving up 1.2 goals in their past seven games. The Canadiens have surrendered three or more goals in eight of their last 11 games. They are averaging just 1.8 goals during their past seven games. Clear class difference. So I'm going to turn a high lay price into a huge plus price by banking on the Flyers to win by more than one goal.
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08-11-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 140 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights are not the Oilers, the team the Blackhawks took out to reach this point. Unlike the Oilers, the Golden Knights are not brain dead. Las Vegas' case to bury the defensively-challenged Blackhawks is the return of Max Pacioretty, the team's leading scorer. He makes the Golden Knights' power play more deadly and helps Las Vegas field three strong attacking lines. I see a big disparity between these two teams, so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals and taking the Golden Knights on the run line.
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08-11-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
The Padres nipped the Dodgers, 2-1, on Monday night. The Dodgers have followed up their last four defeats by winning their next game by multiple runs. San Diego is improved this season. But they are at least two tiers beneath the Dodgers' "A" level. The Padres are 4-13 the last 17 times they've been a road 'dog. Dodgers starter Ross Stripling is solid. He would be a No. 2 type starter on some clubs. I expect him to come in with a solid effort. Garrett Richards continues on his comeback trail. He's 0-1 with a 4.60 ERA. The Dodgers just saw him this past Wednesday and got to him for four runs on five hits in five innings.
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08-10-20 | Pacers v. Heat -3.5 | 92-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
The Heat are going to be healthy for this matchup getting back Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. The teams last met on Jan. 14 and the Heat won by 14 points. There was bad blood in that game between Butler and T.J. Warren. The Heat are in bounce back mood after losing to the Suns while missing Butler and Dragic. Miami has covered 20 of the last 27 times following a loss. Indiana, on the other hand, is off a victory against the Lakers. |
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08-10-20 | Sun -5 v. Dream | 93-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a battle of two disappointing teams. Atlanta has lost five in a row. The Dream players hate their co-owner Kelly Loeffler because of off-court issues. I trust Connecticut more. The Sun have begun to play better going 1-1 in their last two games. They looked very good in beating Dallas, 91-68, this past Thursday. There was no shame when they lost 100-92 to Chicago on Saturday as the Sky could be the most improved team in the league. The Sun took three of four from the Dream last season.
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08-09-20 | Rockets -5.5 v. Kings | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
The Rockets are 3-1 since play resumed. They are playing for playoff seeding and aren't going to give up a game to the Kings, who aren't playing defense and haven't looked good. The Kings realistically know their playoff hopes are gone since they've gone 1-4 in the bubble. The Kings gave up 140 points in a loss to the Pelicans this past Thursday and then lost to the short-handed Nets on Friday. This is their third game in four days. They are dazed and demoralized. Houston has too much firepower and incentive for the Kings to stay close.
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08-09-20 | Mystics -4 v. Fever | 84-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
The defending WNBA champion Mystics are in stop-the-pain mode losing three in a row with the latest loss being an embarrassing defeat to previously winless New York. Washington is down from a year ago, but the Mystics are better than this and will be highly motivated in this matchup after probably their most humiliating loss ever in the Mike Thibault era. Injuries have prevented the Fever from being any good. Victoria Vivians, Natalie Achonwa and Stephanie Mavunga are all dealing with injuries and Erica Wheeler is in COVID-19 protocol.
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08-09-20 | Aces -12 v. Liberty | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
The Aces are playing their best ball with consecutive victories against Dallas, Washington and Los Angeles. The Liberty is a huge letdown spot after stunning the defending WNBA champion Mystics in their last game two days ago. The Liberty pulled off the upset as 16 1/2-point 'dogs. Las Vegas has won the last two games in the series, winning those matchups by an average of 33 1/2 points.
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08-09-20 | Spurs +3 v. Pelicans | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
The prideful Spurs aren't giving up on trying to make the playoffs for a record 23 consecutive seasons. They are still alive, but can't afford to take a loss to the Pelicans. I don't see that happening. San Antonio has a better record than New Orleans. The Spurs have covered four of the last five times they've been an underdog. The Spurs are capable of playing much better than they did in their last game, a 119-111 win against the short-handed Jazz this past Friday. The Pelicans have talent. But they are not well coached. There is a huge coaching disparity between Gregg Popovich and Alvin Gentry. The Pelicans are heavily reliant on Zion Williamson. They have a minus 10-point difference when he's not on the court. Williamson has averaged fewer than 20 minutes a game during the resumption of the season. New Orleans has played a weak schedule. The Pelicans' last three games were against the Wizards, Kings - who they lost 140-125 to - and Grizzlies. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This marks their third game in four days. |
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08-08-20 | Orioles v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The world champion Nationals were embarrassed, 11-0, by the lowly Orioles on Friday in the first game of this rivalry interleague series. Look for the Nationals to get their revenge today. Not only were the Nationals humiliated at home, but there is a strong sense of urgency. That loss dropped the Nationals to 4-6. The regular season is just 60 games. Baltimore is 32-82 in its next game following a victory. The Nationals are finally at full strength and have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Thomas Eshelman versus Austin Voth. Eshelman is a fill-in for John Means. So this could turn into a bullpen game for the Orioles. Voth had tremendous success in his previous start against the Orioles. That came last July when he beat them, 8-1, giving up one run on four hits and one walk in six innings.
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08-08-20 | Sky -3 v. Sun | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Chicago is much improved, improved enough to be a contender to win the WNBA title. The Sky, though, are coming off a 96-86 loss to Phoenix from Thursday. So I see a focused, intense effort from Chicago. The Sky also have back Sydney Colson. She had missed the first five games due to COVID-19. The Suns halted their five-game losing streak by rolling past Dallas, 91-68, this past Thursday. So their intensity could be down a notch.
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08-07-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
The Dodgers are one of the best teams in the majors. The Giants are one of the worst. LA has nine victories, eight of them by more than one run. San Francisco has eight losses, seven of them by more than one run. So I feel confident in laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. Dodgers starter Julio Urias has been living up to his considerable promise so far this season. He has a 1.16 lifetime ERA versus the Giants in seven career starts. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is nothing more than an innings-eater. He's been bad again this season with a 9.31 ERA.
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08-07-20 | Liberty v. Mystics -16 | 74-66 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
New York hasn't broken the 67-point barrier since losing star rookie Sabrina Ionescu to an ankle injury in the second quarter two games ago. The Liberty are just lost offensively without Ionescu ranking last in all of the major offensive categories while also committing the most turnovers. The Liberty have the misfortune of catching Washington off consecutive losses. So the Mystics should have their defensive intensity up.
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08-06-20 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Both teams are 3-0 since the NBA has resumed. The Pacers are a legitimate playoff team. The Suns are not. Phoenix still could be on Cloud 9 after upsetting the Clippers, 117-115, on Tuesday. T.J. Warren has emerged as a star during bubble play. He'll be sky high to duplicate his huge scoring against the Suns, his former team. The Suns are heavily reliant upon Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Pacers have a tough frontline to combat Ayton, an excellent defender in Malcolm Brogdon to help bother Booker and are a much deeper team.
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08-05-20 | Lynx -7.5 v. Liberty | 92-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
This will be the winless Liberty's first game since star player and No. 1 draft pick guard Sabrina Ionescu suffered a serious ankle injury. I don't see the Liberty overcoming her absence, especially leaning so heavily on first-year players. New York managed only 67 points against Phoenix in the game Ionescu was injured in. The Mercury buried the Liberty by 19 points. The Liberty managed just seven assists in that game. Minnesota ranks No. 2 defensively. The Liberty's whole offense was built around Ionescu. So the Lynx should have a much easier time defending.
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08-05-20 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
The Jazz don't have the urgency the Grizzlies do because their playoff ticket is punched. The Grizzlies are putting their postseason chances in peril having gone 0-3 since play resumed. The Grizzlies blew a game to San Antonio, losing by two points. They lost a matchup to Portland in overtime and fell to New Orleans by 10 points two days ago. The Grizzlies got good looks at the basket against the Pelicans. They just couldn't hit their shots. Memphis has the talent and coaching to adjust and fix that. Utah is 2-13-2 ATS the past 17 times it has been favored. That's not a good role for them. The Jazz also have been having problems with their perimeter shooting. They've yet to adequately replace their second-leading scorer and top outside shooter, injured Bojan Bogdanovic.
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08-04-20 | Wings +6.5 v. Sky | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
The Wings need to prove they can beat a good team. This is their chance. Chicago is much improved. But the Sky could be a little flat after an emotional, 88-86, victory against defending WNBA champion Washington in their last game this past Saturday.
The Sky are 7-18 ATS the past 25 times when playing on two days rest. |
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08-04-20 | Mavs -6 v. Kings | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
A combination of horrendous defense and Luke Walton's coaching shortcomings have contributed to the Kings going 0-2 in the bubble. Sacramento has lost 129-120 to the Spurs and 132-116 to the Magic. Both of those opponents shot better than 52 percent from the floor. Dallas also is seeking its first win in the Orlando bubble. The Mavericks fell to the Rockets and were surprised by the Suns. Even though the Mavericks are all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the West, their 0-2 mark doesn't sit well with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle. So both teams should have a sense of urgency for this matchup. I don't just see the Mavericks being a level higher than the Kings, but two levels higher. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league. There is no chance of the Kings slowing down Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Those are easily the two best players on the court. Carlisle also is a far superior coach to Walton. The Kings surrendered 132 points to Orlando. It's scary to think how many points the Mavericks can put up on them.
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08-03-20 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Yankees minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.55 (run line) hosting Phillies Coming off eight days of being idle due to Coronavirus concerns, the Phillies are back in action against the best pitcher in the American League if not all of baseball - Gerrit Cole. Good luck with that. This is a huge mismatch and it's priced accurately that way. But the juice can be reduced to a more manageable level by backing the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. The Yankees are in the argument for best team in baseball opening 7-1. The Phillies appear way down this season. They've played only three games going 1-2. The three starting pitchers the Phillies have drawn are Sanday Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Robert Dugger. Now their rusty bats have to go against the dominant righty Cole. Philadelphia is 1-8 the last nine times it has faced a righty starter. The Phillies are starting Jake Arrieta, who is on the downside of his career and coming back from an elbow injury. . The Yankees have won six in a row. Cole is riding a career-best 18-game win streak. He hasn't lost in his last 24 starts. New York has been dominant as a home favorite winning 45 of the last 57 times in that role for 79 percent. All of the Yankees' victories except one this season have been by more than one run. |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Pelicans | 99-109 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm expecting an intense matchup here as both teams are 0-2 in the reboot and fighting for a playoff spot. So I'll take the points. Yes, the Grizzlies played Sunday against the Spurs, losing 108-106 on two free throws at the end. Memphis also fell in overtime to Portland. This marks their third game in four days and second in two days. Perhaps that's why this line is inflated in my view. But the Grizzlies are a young team and have fresh legs following the long layoff. Fatigue shouldn't be a factor this early in the Orlando bubble. The Grizzlies actually have excelled in this situation covering seven of the past eight times they played without rest. The Pelicans have loads of talent. But they commit too many turnovers, lack defense, are not well coached and Zion Williamson has had his minutes reduced. Williamson has played just 15 and 14 minutes during the Pelicans' first two games of the resumed season. Not only is this good from an opposition standpoint, but Williamson's lack of playing time has kept New Orleans from finding its rhythm after the long break.
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08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Mavericks are several tiers above the Suns. They are a tremendous scoring team and are a bit below-the-radar even though they are 40-28. Dallas has lost by four or fewer points in six of its last eight defeats. Dallas still is steaming from its last game, a 153-149 overtime loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Mavericks blew a 3-point lead with three seconds left in regulation. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS following a loss. The Mavericks now step way down in class. The Suns were only invited to Orlando to fill out the number of teams. On top of this, Phoenix is a bit fat and happy after opening the rebooted season with a 125-112 victory against the Wizards, who are the worst team in the reboot. The Suns lack the Mavericks' depth especially with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Aron Baynes both out. Phoenix is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
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08-02-20 | Rays -1.5 v. Orioles | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
It's a statistic rarely asked. What is Baltimore's record following a victory? The answer is 31-81. Not only are the Orioles off a victory against the Rays, but they've actually defeated Tampa Bay in consecutive games. I don't see a sweep happening and will lay 1 1/2 runs to reduce the juice to support this decision. The Rays are in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak. This wouldn't be crucial if this were a normal season. But as we know, the season is just 60 games. So Tampa Bay absolutely can't drop another one to the Orioles. Yonny Chirinos is reliable. He should be effective against the Orioles for the first few innings. The Rays then have a big bullpen advantage especially with Baltimore carrying a high bullpen fatigue rating. Look for the Rays to jump on Baltimore's journeyman starter Tommy Milone, who was bad filling in for John Means on opening night against the Red Sox and who has a 6.75 ERA lifetime versus the Rays. That includes five starts.
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08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Talent-wise, the 76ers do hold an edge on the Pacers especially with Indiana missing emerging star Domantas Sabonis. He's out due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. But there other factors that point to this being a very close game. Each team is 39-26. So it's an important matchup for playoff seeding. A loss wouldn't be devastating for the 76ers, though, because they drew a very easy schedule in this reboot of the season. Philadelphia's next four games following this one are against the Wizards, Magic, Trail Blazers and Suns. None of those teams has a winning record. The 76ers were practically unbeatable at home. But away from Wells Fargo Center, Philly went just 10-24. There are many questions for the 76ers such as: Can they be trusted as mid-sized neutral site chalk against a solid playoff team like the Pacers? Is Shake Milton a reliable point guard? Can Ben Simmons make the transition to power forward and be as effective without handling the ball so much? Is Joel Embiid fully healthy after missing the 76ers' last two scrimmages with a strained right calf? The Pacers have solid depth and Victor Oladipo is expected to play. He was just rounding into his All-Star form when league play was halted. |
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07-31-20 | Kings v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The Spurs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. This is a must-win spot for them. Sacramento needs to win, too, to keep its outside chances alive. San Antonio is 27-36. Sacramento is 28-36. The Spurs' best big man, seven-time All Star LaMarcus Aldridge, is out. The Kings' top big man, Marvin Bagley III, is out. Sacramento's best player is DeAaron Fox. He leads the team in points, assists and steals. Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle. He may not be 100 percent. Certainly he's going to be rusty. Center Jakob Poeltl has looked good when Aldridge has been missing. The Spurs actually were outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl was on the floor instead of Aldridge. This is the first game back for each team since March. It's a no-brainer that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a monster coaching edge against Luke Walton especially in these circumstances. The Kings are much better in an underdog role. They are just 5-12 (29 percent) the past 17 times when laying points.
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07-31-20 | Liberty +5 v. Dream | 78-84 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
I consider this to be more of a pick'em type of game so I'm glad to accept this many points. Atlanta is surrendering 97.5 points. The Dream could be without two of their key players. They are 0-5 ATS the last five times they've been favored. New York is inexperienced, but has the probable rookie-of-the-year in Sabrina Ionescu, who is a fantastic scorer. The winless Liberty should be primed for an all-out effort having lost to Seattle and Dallas. The Liberty beat the Dream two of three last season, including the last one, 71-63, at Atlanta.
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07-30-20 | Clippers +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 137 h 28 m | Show |
I believe the better team is the underdog especially with the Lakers being without guards Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. The Clippers are at full strength and have the strongest bench in the league. The clubs met three times this season. Every game was at Staples Center, which is the home floor for each of them. So neither team had a home court edge. This is significant because they are now playing at neutral site Orlando. The Clippers beat the Lakers two of three. The Clippers are 7-1 during their last eight games with that lone defeat occurring to the Lakers, 112-103. Note the Clippers were 2 1/2-point favorites in that contest. So the line value is obvious. Bradley and Rondo played significant roles in that win. Bradley had one of his best games of the season with 24 points while Rondo dished off seven assists. Bradley is an ace defender so his big scoring game was an added bonus for the Lakers. Bradley, though, isn't playing because of Coronavirus concerns and Rondo is sidelined following thumb surgery.
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07-30-20 | Sky v. Lynx +5.5 | 81-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a strong effort from Minnesota after it didn't play well in a 90-66 loss to Seattle on Tuesday. Chicago has been a nice surprise opening 2-0. The Sky are improved, but I don't see them in Seattle's class. The Lynx swept the Sky last season winning all three matchups. Minnesota has covered four of the last five in the series.
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
I'm going to take an early position on this game by locking into this number not knowing for sure if Zion Williamson is going to play. Even if Williamson is unavailable, I still like the Pelicans to cover this short number. New Orleans has all of its players healthy. The Pelicans still have loads of star power with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who was playing his finest ball when the season shut down. The Pelicans have far more motivation than Utah. The Pelicans can't afford to lose. The Jazz can. Utah already has its playoff ticket punched even if it were to lose every game in Orlando during this reboot. So the Jazz are using these reboot games to tinker and fine tune for down-the-road playoff competition. Winning is not paramount to them at this stage. The Jazz need to find scoring having lost their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic, for the season due to a wrist injury. Utah is going to greatly miss Bogdanovic's long-range shooting and marksmanship. There's also the question if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, their two best players, can get along. They were feuding following the season being postponed after Gobert tested for Coronvirus. Their games do not complement each other. The Pelicans won all of their scrimmages, including impressively defeating the Bucks, 124-103. They have looked crisp and sharp.
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07-29-20 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 3-0 | Win | 109 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
I like the Brewers so much going with their best starter after playing poorly on Tuesday that I'll take them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs to get much better juice. The Brewers have owned the Pirates beating them 20 of the last 27 times, but blew a 6-2 lead in losing to Pittsburgh, 8-6, last night. The Brewers were disgusted with that defeat knowing they are the far superior team. Now they have Brandon Woodruff going. He was 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings last season emerging as Milwaukee's ace. Woodruff was hitting 99 mph on his fastball opening day and is 2-0 career-wise versus the Pirates with 24 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings. I consider Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove more as an innings-eater rather than a respectable starter. The Brewers own a huge bullpen edge, too.
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07-28-20 | Sparks -4.5 v. Sky | 78-96 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
The Sparks are the superior team and draw the Sky in a letdown spot after Chicago nipped Las Vegas, 88-86, two days ago by scoring the final 11 points of the game. Las Vegas had eliminated the Sky from the playoffs last season. LA opened in impressive style rolling past Phoenix, 99-76, this past Saturday.
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07-27-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Kendall Graveman is one of my least favorite starters. The combination of Graveman making his first start in two years after being out last year recovering from Tommy John surgery and the Astros coming off a loss puts me on Houston. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros - as does the oddsmaker - so I'm laying the run line to reduce the vigorish. Houston had defeated Seattle 15 straight times until losing, 7-6, to the Mariners on Sunday. The Astros also are 12-1 (92 percent) the past 13 times hosting the Mariners. Graveman had a 7.60 ERA when he last pitched in 2018. Houston is going with Josh James, one of its many talented young pitchers. James had 100 strikeouts in just 61 1/3 innings last year. He is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in four career starts. James knows he could have a big role if Justin Verlander has a serious elbow injury. The Mariners are in full rebuild mode while the Astros are one of the best teams in baseball. |
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07-26-20 | Tigers v. Reds -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Trevor Bauer came close to reaching elite status with the Indians before taking a huge step backward after going to the Reds last season. The right-handed Bauer is in a contract year and has much to prove. Unlike other ballplayers, Bauer attacked the extended offseason with an intense training regime. Bauer's comeback begins against the team that scored the fewest runs in the majors last year, the Tigers. Detroit once again could be the worst team in the majors. The Tigers are 6-16 in their last 22 interleague road games and have lost 64 of the past 82 times (22 percent) they've faced a righty starter. The Tigers are starting Spencer Turnbull, who was 3-17 with a 4.61 ERA last year. Turnbull compiled some of these bad numbers at pitcher-friendly Commerica Park, too. The Reds' Great American Ball Park, by contrast, is one of the best hitting parks in the majors.
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07-25-20 | Tigers v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
Luis Castillo is a serious Cy Young Award candidate and the Reds appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. The Tigers remain the Tigers - a team that went 47-114 last year and had the worst offense in the league. Detroit has dropped 23 of its last 31 interleague road games. I don't see Ivan Nova changing that trend. Nova, the Tigers' scheduled starter, doesn't miss many bats. That's dangerous against a slugging Reds team that has added power hitters Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas and is playing in their offensive-friendly ballpark.
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07-24-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
The Dodgers are the best team in the National League, if not all of baseball. The Giants could be the worst. It's nearly a no-brainer to just back the Dodgers on the run line thus avoiding laying heavy juice. It easily worked on Thursday with LA winning by seven runs even though Clayton Kershaw didn't pitch. The Dodgers have a dominant offense. It doesn't matter who the Giants start on the mound. San Francisco's bullpen is extremely weak, too, having lost its best relievers from last season. LA's scheduled starter, Ross Stripling, is solid. The key with Stripling is he has excellent control. The Giants are without three of their key hitters with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. That makes their already weak lineup even weaker.
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03-11-20 | Kansas State v. TCU -1.5 | Top | 53-49 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
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03-11-20 | CS Sacramento v. Weber State +4 | 62-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
These are two evenly matched teams - each 8-12 - playing at a neutral site in the first round of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. So I am happy to accept this many points with Weber State. The Wildcats average nearly seven points more per game than Sacramento State. The Hornets are the better defensive team, but they enter tourney play giving up 76 and 79 points during their last two games, losses to Portland State and Montana. Weber State beat Sacramento State during the most recent meeting, 70-66, as 1-point home 'dogs on Feb. 6.
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03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again. The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one. That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers. Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games.
Tuesday Free Play Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits. Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury. The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver. Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur. |
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03-10-20 | Illinois-Chicago +4.5 v. Northern Kentucky | 62-71 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Illinois Chicago is on a tremendous roll in the Horizon League tournament with three wins and covers, including a highly impressive 73-56 victory against top-ranked Wright State on Monday. There was nothing flukish about the Flames' win as the they built a 27-point lead versus Wright State. I'm going to ride with the Flames here in the title game. These two teams met on Feb. 16 at Northern Kentucky. It was no contest. Illinois Chicago destroyed the Norse by 30 points. Now the Flames are peaking and taking points on top of it. Count me in.
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03-10-20 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +1.5 | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has a history of playing poorly at the end of the season and this year has proven to be no exception. The Panthers are 2-10 in their last 12 games. They've lost their last seven games. They have scored 57 points or fewer in five of their past seven games, while giving up 72 or more points in four of their past five games. Wake Forest showed its ability posting late February victories against Duke and Notre Dame. Pittsburgh lost by eight points to Notre Dame and by 12 points to Duke, although both of those defeats were on the road while Wake Forest's victories versus those two opponents were at home. Still, in a pick type of betting line at a neutral site, the Demon Deacons are the team I want going for me. Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh, 69-65, on the road in the lone meeting this season. The Demon Deacons won despite falling behind 22-6 during the first half. It was Wake Forest's fourth straight victory versus Pittsburgh.
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03-09-20 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 65-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs. The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored. I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday. The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
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03-08-20 | Raptors -5.5 v. Kings | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Credit to Sacramento for not giving up on trying to make the playoffs. But the Raptors are two levels higher than the Kings and are in a good situational spot even though they are the road team. The Kings are coming off an impressive, 123-111, road victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. Sacramento, however, carries a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this marks their seventh game in 11 days. Toronto has been idle the past two days. The Raptors are 14-2 the last 16 times they've played a below .500 opponent. Serge Ibaka returned to the lineup in the Raptors' last game after being out the last three games with a knee injury. There's a chance the Raptors could get Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet back for this game.
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03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons +8.5 | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah is in a letdown spot and carries a heavy fatigue rating. The Jazz are coming off a huge 99-94 road win against the Celtics last night. Now they are playing their fourth road game in six days. The Jazz have not been good as favorites going 3-11-2 ATS the past 16 times laying points. The Pistons are down Derrick Rose. But they are expected to get back guard Bruce Brown. They acquired Jordan McRae to boost their backcourt and have been getting strong performances recently from guard Brandon Knight and big man Christian Wood. Detroit has been idle the past two days. So the Pistons hold a definite scheduling advantage.
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03-07-20 | Valparaiso +3.5 v. Missouri State | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm surprised to see Missouri State favored by this large amount in what I consider to be a pick type matchup. Both teams have been playing well, but I like Valparaiso's momentum. The Crusaders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and have won six of their past eight games. Their adrenalin should be pumped after pulling off an upset overtime victory against Loyola on Friday. Valparaiso hosted Missouri State on Feb. 25 and easily won, 89-74.
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03-07-20 | Penn State -7 v. Northwestern | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points. Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too. The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.
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03-07-20 | UTEP +3.5 v. Rice | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
UTEP is playing well winning and covering its last three games. The Miners have held their past three foes to an average of 58 points. I trust their defense more than Rice's defense. The Owls have surrendered at least 68 points in 24 of their last 27 games. The Miners own the best low-post player on the court in Bryson Williams. The teams just met on Feb. 22 at UTEP. The Miners won, 68-62, despite shooting just 39 percent from the field and Williams scoring only 10 points, which is seven below his average. I see UTEP shooting better and Williams have a stronger performance.
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03-06-20 | Blazers -2.5 v. Suns | 117-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers can't afford to lose this game in their quest to make the playoffs. Their journey is made easier with the return of star guard Damian Lillard. Phoenix has dropped four in a row. The Suns are down two key players with third-leading scorer Kelly Oubre sidelined with a knee injury and Deandre Ayton not likely to play because of an ankle injury. That should ensure another strong inside game from rejuvenated Hassan Whiteside. Portland has won the last five it has played the Suns in Phoenix.
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03-06-20 | Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8. I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that. The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record. The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games.
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03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around.
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03-05-20 | Weber State -4 v. Idaho | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
Prior to losing to Idaho State, Weber State had scored 83 and 82 points, respectively. The Wildcats average 70 points a game. Idaho averages fewer than 65 points a game. The Vandals' scoring has been down recently, too. They are averaging just 55.2 points during their last four games. The Vandals also have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. I see a class difference that is greater than this point spread.
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03-04-20 | Dayton -3.5 v. Rhode Island | 84-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Don't overthink this game. Dayton has won 18 games in a row because the Flyers are the superior team. Led by Obi Toppin, the Flyers are leading the nation in shooting percentage at 52.6 percent. Toppin is averaging nearly 20 points a game while shooting an Atlantic-10 leading 63.2 percent from the floor. Rhode Island has yielded at least 72 points in four of its last five games, losing three of those matchups. The Rams aren't going to be able to stay with Dayton. That was the case in the first meeing, which Dayton won, 81-67, on Feb. 11. It will be the case here, too.
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03-04-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday. The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition. This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times.
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03-04-20 | Thunder -7.5 v. Pistons | 114-107 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City is in stop-the-pain mode having lost its last two games. Those matchups, though, were against the Bucks and Clippers. Now the Thunder step way down in class to face the battered Pistons. The Pistons no longer have Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Blake Griffin is out for the season. Their two best players are Derrick Rose and Christian Wood. Rose isn't likely to play because of an ankle injury while Wood is questionable with a foot injury. So this sets up as a kill spot for the Thunder. The situation also favors Oklahoma City. Detroit is home for the first time since finishing a four-game road trip at Sacramento on Sunday. Detroit is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games and 1-8 ATS at home versus foes that have a winning road mark. The Thunder have been one of the top road spread teams covering 22 of their last 29 away games. They are 9-1 ATS, too, the past 10 times when playing without rest and and 9-1 ATS against opponent with a losing home mark.
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03-03-20 | Marquette -4 v. DePaul | 68-69 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
In Markus Howard I trust. The senior guard leads the nation in scoring at 27.6 points a game. Marquette desperately needs this game being on the bubble for an NCAA Tourney bid. DePaul can't beat its fellow Big East teams. The Blue Demons are 2-14 in their last 16 conference games. The Golden Eagles have defeated DePaul during the past four meetings. This includes a 76-72 win at Marquette. DePaul shot 50 percent from the floor in that loss, while Marquette managed to hit only 40 percent of its field goals yet still win by four. Look for the Golden Eagles to shoot better this time around and to win by a more comfortable margin.
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03-03-20 | Cleveland State v. Oakland -7 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago. Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind. While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points.
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03-03-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock +3.5 v. Georgia State | 70-89 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Georgia State is much better at home. Arkansas Little Rock already has clinched the Sun Belt Conference title. Yet this line is out of whack because Arkansas Little Rock still is a much superior team to the Panthers with a big inside edge. Little Rock has been playing with a chip on its shoulder the whole season after being picked to finish 11th in the conference. So the Trojans just aren't going to mail this one it. Georgia State has lost three in a row - all by at least eight points. That's dropped the Panthers to fifth place in the Sun Belt.
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03-02-20 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hawks | 127-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
The Hawks are getting some love here from the oddsmaker coming off consecutive home double-digit victories against the Nets and Trail Blazers. The key for the Hawks in those victories was their 3-point shooting. Atlanta sank 37 of 81 3-pointers during those two games for 45.6 percent. I don't see the Hawks keeping up that long range accuracy. They rank last in the NBA in 3-point accuracy hitting 33.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The buy sign is back on the Grizzlies after they halted a five-game losing streak coming off break with a monster, 105-88, home win against the Lakers on Saturday. That was LA's lowest scoring total of the season. The Grizzlies don't want to just give that victory back with a loss to the lowly Hawks, who are one of the five-worst teams in the NBA and at least 1 1/2 levels lower than Memphis.
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03-02-20 | North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State | Top | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range. The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10. South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference. The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team.
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03-02-20 | Blazers +7 v. Magic | 130-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
The bottom line for me is Orlando is not this many points better than Portland even playing at home and the Trail Blazers missing Damian Lillard. The teams met in Portland on Dec. 20 and the Trail Blazers won, 118-103. Lillard was instrumental in that victory. But even without Lillard, the Trail Blazers should keep this close, if not win, taking on such a limited offensive opponent. Portland outscores Orlando by eight points a game. The Trail Blazers still have the best guard on the court in CJ McCollum. I also would take Hassan Whiteside against any of Orlando's big men right now. Whiteside has been rejuvenated this season leaving Miami. He's produced double-doubles in his last nine games. Orlando doesn't have a strong home-court failing to cover in seven of its last nine games at Amway Center.
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03-01-20 | Pistons +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Kings just defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis two days ago. That was a big victory for the Kings. Sacramento concluded its four-game road trip going 3-1. Now, though, the Kings could run into an ambush and may also be short-handed. Sacramento may not have its full concentration and motivation returning home to face the lowly Pistons. Sacramento has failed to cover seven of the last 10 times it has been a home favorite. So the Kings are not good in this home favorite role. The Kings could really be in trouble if their two top point guards, De'Aaron Fox and Cory Joseph, both are out. Each is questionable. Fox has been battling an abdominal injury while Joseph has a bruised heel. Detroit has been getting strong contributions lately from youngsters Christian Wood and Brandon Knight along with a steady hand from rejuvenated veteran Derrick Rose. The Pistons are playing loose and had their confidence restored with a 113-111 road win against the Suns on Friday.
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03-01-20 | Florida International +5 v. Charlotte | Top | 67-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding. Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae. I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25.
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02-29-20 | Nets +7 v. Heat | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Miami received a much needed win beating the Mavericks, 126-118, last night. The Nets also played last night and were humiliated in the fourth quarter by the Hawks losing, 141-118, on the road. That was the most points the Nets had surrendered in three years. I'm expecting a much stronger and focused effort from the Nets, who even with that loss still yield just two fewer points per game than Miami. The Heat are a bit fat and happy after that victory. Miami hasn't been playing well just 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The Heat are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a point spread cover. Brooklyn is 5-2 ATS the past seven times following a victory. The Nets have covered in four of their last five games against the Heat, including both meeting this season winning, 117-113, at home on Jan. 10 and falling, 109-106, as 4 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kyrie Irving didn't play in either of those games.
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02-29-20 | Oakland +3.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
I see Oakland scoring enough points to produce an outright upset. The Golden Grizzlies have produced 70 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The lone exception was scoring 68 points in their last game. Illinois-Chicago averages fewer than 69 points a game. This has been a road team series with the visitor covering four of the last five times.
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02-29-20 | George Washington +12.5 v. VCU | 51-75 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Considering VCU is likely to be withou guard Marcus Evans for a second straight game and has been playing horrible, I see this line being vastly inflated. The Rams have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. Evans, the Rams' third-leading scorer and top assists guy, is dealing with a knee injury. It's hard to cover a large margin against George Washington because the Colonials play at a very slow tempo. The Colonials haven't lost by more than 12 points in 12 of their last 15 games.
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02-28-20 | Washington State +10 v. Washington | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm hoping point guard Isaac Bonton will be able to play for Washington State. He's questionable with a hip injury. But the Cougars still have a tremendous all-around player in CJ Elleby. I don't believe Washington is this many points better than Washington State so I'm on the Cougars regardless of Bonton's status. Washington State defeated the Huskies, 79-67, on Feb. 9 behind Elleby's 34 points. The Huskies have been one of the worst ATS teams since Christmas failing to cover in 13 of their last 16 games. The talent gap between these two teams doesn't merit this high of a point spread in my view.
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02-28-20 | Nets -2 v. Hawks | Top | 118-141 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
The Nets have dominated the Hawks this season winning and covering all three meetings. Brooklyn's winning margin against Atlanta this season is 13 points. Brooklyn is trying to hold on to the No. 7 seed in the East. This is important since the 8th seed would face the Bucks in the first round. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. The Nets are a better team than the Hawks and should be fully focused knowing their next two games are on the road against the Heat and Celtics, which loom as likely losses. I would suggest locking in now if you can because the line would skyrocket up if Trae Young can't play. He's been battling an illness and didn't practice Thursday. |
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02-27-20 | Arizona State +4 v. UCLA | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points. The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals.
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02-27-20 | Texas-San Antonio +4 v. Florida Atlantic | 71-80 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Texas-San Antonio is the 23rd-highest scoring team in the nation. The Roadrunners average eight more points per game than Florida Atlantic. They have a big backcourt edge with Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, who average a combined 47 points per game. The Roadrunners have scored 77 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games. I don't see Florida Atlantic producing enough points to cover let alone win the game. The Owls have not been playing well losing and failing to cover in four of their last five games.
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02-27-20 | Delaware +4 v. College of Charleston | 71-80 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Delaware has won eight of its last 10 games, while Collge of Charleston is at low ebb losing and failing to cover in its last four games. The Cougars are averaging just 58.5 points during these past four games. The Blue Hens, on the other hand, have produced 76 or more points in six of their last eight games.
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02-26-20 | Oilers v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 120 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Las Vegas is playing its best hockey on a six-game win streak. The Golden Knights should be well-rested, too, having been idle since Sunday. Edmonton, though, is coming off a road overtime loss to the Ducks last night. Because it's their second game in two nights, the Oilers are expected to start backup goalie Mikko Koskinen. He has less than sterling credentials with an .899 save percentage and 3.28 GAA in his last four games. |
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02-26-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -2 | 58-60 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
New Mexico hasn't been the same since Carlton Bragg was booted off the team in mid-January. Bragg provided the Lobos an inside force being their best rebounder and top field goal percentage shooter. The Lobos' roster has been in flux since then. The results have showed that as New Mexico is 1-7 in its last eight games and has lost four in a row. The Lobos have yet to win on the road without Bragg going 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS. This has been a home team series with the host covering 11 of the last 15 times. That's the way I see this matchup going, too, with Air Force winning. The Falcons are a far superior 3-point shooting team and won't lack motivation. Not only are the Falcons coming off an embarrassing 78-72 home loss to Wyoming in which they were favored by 8 1/2-points, but this is the final home game for five of their seniors.
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02-26-20 | Bradley -3 v. Illinois State | Top | 74-71 | Push | 0 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Bradley buried Illinois State, 75-63, as 8 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 22. The Braves accomplished that despite not having their two top scorers, Elijah Childs and Darrell Brown. Both are back for the Braves. It was the fourth straight time Bradley has defeated Illinois State. Illinois State plays better at home and is the host team. However, the Braves are the superior team and the spot sets up well for them. Illinois State is off an upset home win against Drake in their Senior Day game. The Redbirds are fat and happy after that win. They also are locked into the No. 9 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which opens next week. Bradley still has a shot at being as high as a No. 2 seed. The Braves rank 27th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Illinois State ranks last in the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio and is ninth in the conference in scoring at 65.8 points. So not only is Bradley much better, but the situation is ripe, too, for the Braves. Considering this, I believe this line is way too short as I expect the Braves to win by double-digits again. |
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02-25-20 | Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Considering the Bulls' massive amount of injuries, I would rate the Thunder three levels higher than Chicago. So I don't mind laying these road points. Oklahoma City has been a top road team covering 22 of its last 27 away games for 81 percent. The Thunder have covered their last 13 away games! This is the Thunder's first road matchup since the All-Star break. The Thunder have looked great coming off break beating the Nuggets, 113-101, and Spurs, 131-103. They are 3 1/2 games out of being the No. 3 playoff seed in the West. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bulls still are far from healthy being without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. They are extremely thin up front. Zach LaVine and promising rookie Cody White are it for the Bulls right now. The Thunder have a deep rotation, including three very good guards. Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. The Bulls have covered only 31 percent of their last 58 home games.
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02-25-20 | Ole Miss +8.5 v. Auburn | 58-67 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
These teams met in late January and Auburn nipped Mississippi, 83-82, in double overtime. A takeaway from that game is that Rebels star senior guard Breein Tyree scored only six points. Tyree leads the SEC in scoring at 20.6 points. He has been hot during his last six games making 56 of 107 shots from the floor for 52.3 percent. The Rebels have scored 68 or more points in five of their last six games sparked by Tyree. I expect Tyree to play much better this time around against Auburn and for the Rebels to get the cover. Auburn is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games. The Tigers had to rally from 17 points down in the second half to beat Tennessee, 73-66, this past Saturday covering as six-point home favorites. The Tigers managed to eke out a cover by making two free throws with eight seconds left. If Auburn didn't cover in that matchup it would have the Tigers' fifth straight non-cover.
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State +15.5 v. Kansas | 58-83 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
The combination of Oklahoma State playing well and Kansas in a letdown spot after knocking off top-ranked Baylor, 64-61, on Saturday puts me on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has looked sharp especially this past Saturday when the Cowboys rolled past Oklahoma, 83-66. Better backcourt production has been instrumental for the Cowboys and can help them hang in against the Jayhawks at this large point spread. The Cowboys have scored 70 or more points in four of their last six games.
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02-24-20 | Magic +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Brooklyn is 8-4 in its last 12 games. Orlando is 3-9 in its past 12 games. Note, though, that half of the Nets' victories during this 12-game span were against below .500 foes. The Magic have played a far tougher schedule during their last 12 games drawing the Thunder, Heat twice, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers and Mavericks. The Magic have struggled versus elite teams, but are 8-3 SU and ATS the past 11 times when meeting below .500 foes. This includes a 101-89 home win against the Nets on Jan. 6. Orlando gives up five fewer points than Brooklyn. The Magic have been idle the past three days. This is a huge game for the Magic as they trail the Nets by 2 1/2 games for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That's important because the 8th seed would draw the Bucks in the first round.
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02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
I don't want to minimize Portland not having Damian Lillard here. It's a big loss. But Detroit has nothing anymore. The Pistons have gotten rid of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris. The Pistons have lost five in a row. I can't see them being competitive on the road against a borderline Western Conference playoff team that has motivation. The Trail Blazers can't afford to take the Pistons lightly. And they won't minus Lillard and being 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West. Even minus Lillard, the Trail Blazers still have the three best players on the court in CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and Carmelo Anthony. Portland is a top-eight scoring team that averages nearly 114 points. Detroit has no firepower anymore. The Pistons are averaging 96.6 points during regulation in their last five games.
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02-23-20 | Wizards v. Bulls | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Decimated by injuries, the Bulls have lost eight straight games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Minus Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn. Denzel Valentine and Luke Kornet the Bulls committed a season-worst 26 turnovers in a 112-104 home loss to the Suns on Saturday. Zach LaVine is Chicago's only legitimate NBA starter. The Wizards had some momentum going 5-2 in their last seven games before All-Star break. However, the Wizards' shooting was off and their rust showed on Friday in their first game back from break. They lost, 113-108, at home to the Cavaliers. Washington should shoot better than the 38.7 percent it did against Cleveland. The Wizards have a better lineup and bench than the banged-up Bulls with their YMCA roster. The teams just met 12 days ago and the Wizards won, 126-114, as 3-point home favorites.
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