Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-23-20 | Wolves +14 v. Nuggets | 116-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
It's taken nearly all season, but the Nuggets finally have gotten healthy. Short-term, though, that may not be such a huge plus as the team has to integrated again and role players have to readjust. The Timberwolves are thin up front without Karl-Anthony Towns. But their morale is better with D'Angelo Russell on board and Andrew Wiggins gone. Former Nugget Malik Beasley has looked good for Minnesota since coming from Denver on Feb. 5. He knows his old team so his presence should be an added plus. The Nuggets are not good in this role going 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. The Timberwolves have lost the first three games of the series to Denver, but only by an average margin of six points. None of their defeats were by more than nine points.
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02-23-20 | Blackhawks v. Stars -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks are 2-7 in their last nine games and don't have a realistic shot at the playoffs. They take to the road fat and happy, though, after beating the Predators, 2-1, at home on Friday. Chicago is 6-21 the past 27 times when playing on one day's rest. Chicago draws an angry Dallas team coming off a 5-1 loss to the Blues.
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02-23-20 | Wichita State +4 v. Cincinnati | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Wichita State is back on track after getting embarrassed at Houston winning three in a row by an average of 17.3 points. The Shockers rank 37th defensively and have held their last three opponents - Central Florida, Tulane and South Florida - to 58 points or fewer. This is a big revenge spot for the Shockers and they now have their swagger and confidence restored. The Bearcats nipped Wichita State, 80-79, on Feb. 6 when Jarron Cumberland converted a three-point play with 3.5 seconds left. Cumberland is the Bearcats' best player, but is in a shooting slump making just 12 of 45 shots during his last four games. Cincinnati has been winning, but not covering margins. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They've played four straight overtime games so they could have tired legs. Sunday Free Play Wisconsin minus 4 1/2 hosting Rutgers Wisconsin is another one of those Big Ten teams that is much better at home. The timing works here to back the Badgers. Rutgers is at low ebb. The Scarlet Knights are 2-4 this month. They also are a bit shell shocked having just lost for the first time in 18 games at home falling to Michigan, 60-52, this past Wednesday. Rutgers shot just 34.9 percent from the floor in that loss. The Badgers have held opponents below 40 percent from the field in five of their last six games. Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this season. Rutgers has lost its past five road/neutral court games. Like the Badgers, the Scarlet Knights are a far better home team. Wisconsin has revenge motivation, too. Rutgers defeated the Badgers, 72-65, in Piscataway on Dec. 11. The Scarlet Knights took advantage of the Badgers not having Micah Potter, their leading rebounder, to outrebound Wisconsin, 40-26. Rutgers has never swept a season series for Wisconsin. I don't see the Scarlet Knights putting a halt to that streak. |
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02-22-20 | Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad. The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting.
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02-22-20 | Southern Utah v. Weber State +3 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Weber State beat Southern Utah, 75-65, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog on Jan. 30. Southern Utah has lost three in a row, all on the road going 1-2 ATS. Weber State has the best player on the court in guard Jerrick Harding, who is averaging 22.5 points. The Wildcats are the better long-range shooting team and are home. They should not be underdogs.
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02-22-20 | UAB +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 58-65 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham holds foes to fewer than 65 points a game. Florida Atlantic is going to have trouble putting up points and holding its own on the glass against the Blazers. The Owls have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They are averaging just 60.7 points during this span. Only once in their last nine games have the Owls scored more than 69 points and that was against Marshall, which ranks 262nd defensively.
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02-21-20 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Lakers | 105-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
If you're going to play without rest the best time to do it is following a week long layoff. Memphis is 5-0 ATS the past five times when playing on the second of consecutive days and should even hold an edge on the Lakers because of it. The Grizzlies lost to the Kings on the road last night. The Grizzlies are adjusted to West Coast time now and should have the rust off. The Lakers, on the other hand, haven't played in nine days. The last time the Lakers played with more than five days rest was on Jan. 31 and they lost, 127-119, to the Trail Blazers as 13-point home favorites. LA also has a marquee look-ahead matchup hosting the Celtics on national television Sunday. The Grizzlies have been red-hot even with their loss to the Kings Thursday night winning 15 of their last 20 games, while going 14-6 ATS.
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02-21-20 | Celtics -6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
Boston comes out of the All-Star break winning eight of its last nine. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 games and lost 115-108 at home to the Hornets nine days ago the last time it took the floor. The Celtics won't have Kemba Walker. They will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward along with a much strong bench than the Timberwolves. Brad Stevens versus Ryan Saunders is a monster coaching mismatch. The Timberwolves will be minus Karl-Anthony Towns. That leaves them D'Angelo Russell, who is learning the Timberwolves' system, and a bunch of garbage, including a very thin front line. This is the first of a four-game road swing for Boston. The Celtics face the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz after this matchup. Stevens knows the Celtics can't screw up this first leg of the road trip. Boston is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times in similar situations. The Celtics also have won and covered the past six times they've met the Timberwolves.
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02-21-20 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
This line opened short. The Pacers are back on track after knocking off the Bucks in their final game before the All-Star break. TJ Warren may not play for Indiana, but the Pacers still hold a major talent edge with a now-healthy Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. The Pacers won't lack motivation as they are in revenge mode for a 92-85 home loss suffered to the Knicks on Feb. 1 when they weren't playing well. Indiana has covered in seven of its past nine away matchups. The Knicks are in total rebuild mode and team chemistry was shaken when word leaked that interim coach Mike Miller isn't going to be back even though Miller has been a huge improvement on David Fizdale.
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02-20-20 | Murray State -4 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month. Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
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02-20-20 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 103-93 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
Perhaps you think the Bulls are better than Charlotte? They aren't. Chicago is 19-36. Charlotte is 18-36. The Hornets are 2-1 versus the Bulls this season with their lone defeat coming by one point. Charlotte covered all three games versus the Bulls and is on a five-game ATS run against Chicago going back to last season. The Bulls would be superior to the Hornets if they were fully healthy. That's not the case, though. Center Wendell Carter Jr. is the only key injured Bull set to return today. Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. and Kris Dunn all remain sidelined. Take away those players and Charlotte has the better roster. Zach LaVine gives Chicago the best player on the court. After that, however, the Hornets have Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington and emerging star Devonte' Graham, who is quietly averaging 18.1 points and 7.8 assists per game. Carter last played on Jan. 6 so he figures to be rusty and could be on a minutes restriction. Note the Bulls held LaVine to 4-of-19 shooting from the floor when the teams last played with Charlotte winning, 83-73, on Dec. 13 in Chicago. Charlotte comes out of the break having posted consecutive road victories against the Pistons and Timberwolves. Graham is playing his best ball of the season. The Bulls, on the other hand, have dropped six in a row. Among these losses were by 15 points to the Nets and by 12 points to the Wizards. Chicago isn't a strong home team especially versus weaker foes where they are 9-24 ATS the past 33 times hosting sub .500 opponents.
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02-19-20 | California v. Washington State -5.5 | 66-57 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 0 m | Show | |
Washington State is a mediocre Pac-12 team. But that's good enough to cover this margin at home against California, which is 0-10 on the road. The Golden Bears have lost four in a row and lack the size and talent to take advantage of Washington State inside. The Cougars are 11-3 at home, including going 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games. They have been up-and-down but own victories against UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State. I like the Cougars to cover this spread even if guard Issac Bonton has to miss a second straight game with a leg injury. He missed the Cougars' last game this past Saturday. Washington State lost 70-51 to USC in that matchup. That game, though, was at USC and Bonton's freshmen replacements will be better prepared if called upon. The Cougars still have CJ Elleby, who is averaging 18.7 points and 7.5 rebounds, to give them the best player on the court.
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02-19-20 | Valparaiso v. Drake -4 | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home. Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season. The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games.
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02-18-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 88-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games. The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers. New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January. The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25. The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight.
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02-17-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas -16 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome. The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points. That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks. Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too. The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday.
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02-16-20 | Utah +12.5 v. Oregon | 62-80 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
Utah can bother Oregon enough with its slow, grind-down style to get the cover. The Ducks are coming off a huge 68-60 home victory against then 15th-ranked Colorado from this past Thursday to pull even with the Buffaloes in the loss column on top of the Pac-12 standings. I don't believe Oregon will have the super motivation it had against Colorado since this is a less important matchup. The Ducks can't be blamed for taking the Utes a bit lightly after Utah lost, 71-51, at Oregon State on Thursday. That was a season low in points for the Utes. The Ducks haven't been covering big spreads. Just once in their last 10 games have they won by more than nine points. Utah hung tough at home in the first meeting against the Ducks this season, losing 69-64 on Jan. 4.
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02-16-20 | Memphis +4 v. Connecticut | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats. The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside.
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02-15-20 | George Washington +7 v. George Mason | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
George Washington defeated George Mason, 73-67, as three-point home 'dogs during the first meeting. I see the Colonials holding their own inside, which is a key. Neither team is strong offensively so this is too many points. George Mason hasn't broken the 67-point barrier in four of its last five games. The Patriots still could be on Cloud Nine after upsetting VCU, 72-67, as 14-point road 'dogs this past Wednesday. Previous to that game, though, the Patriots had dropped four in a row. They are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
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02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast. West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.
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02-15-20 | Louisville -6 v. Clemson | 62-77 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Louisville buried Clemson, 80-62, as 9 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 25. The Cardinals went on a 20-0 run at one point during the game. Now we have the rematch. There is little chance Louisville comes out flat, or lets up against Clemson. Not after the Cardinals had their 10-game win streak snapped on the road by Georgia Tech this past Wednesday. That loss opened things up for Duke and Florida State in the ACC. Clemson is a mediocre 12-12, 6-8 in the ACC. The Tigers are coming off an impressive 72-52 win at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. Clemson had lost its three previous games, though. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They've gone eight games without putting together a two-game win streak. The Tigers are not in Louisville's class and they draw the Cardinals in a fired-up, angry mood.
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02-14-20 | Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State | Top | 58-75 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more. Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs.
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02-14-20 | Fairfield +3 v. Marist | Top | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense. The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up.
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02-13-20 | Arizona v. California +10 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times. California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State. Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game. The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats.
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02-13-20 | Clippers +2 v. Celtics | 133-141 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Both the Clippers and Celtics are off bad losses. It's the Clippers who I want in this spot. No team has been better following a defeat. LA is 15-1 SU, 13-3 ATS off a loss. The Celtics have plenty of stars. But it's the Clippers who have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard is having another brilliant season and is one of the hottest players in the NBA scoring 30 or more points in 10 of his last 13 games. Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics due to a calf injury. The Clippers have beaten Boston four straight times, including 107-104 at home on Nov. 20.
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02-12-20 | Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside | Top | 63-59 | Push | 0 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game. The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season.
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02-12-20 | Blazers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 104-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Portland has stepped up recently going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, while defeating the Pacers, Rockets, Lakers, Jazz and Heat during this stretch. But the Trail Blazers couldn't keep it up against much-improved New Orleans on Tuesday, losing 138-117 on the road. That defeat dropped the Trail Blazers 2 1/2 games in back of Memphis for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. So even though the Trail Blazers carry a huge fatigue rating - this is their fifth game in seven days - I'm expecting an all-out effort from a prideful bunch. This is close to a must-win spot for the Trail Blazers and they will be idle for the next nine days following this game. The Grizzlies are playing well, but are flirting with danger shooting just 23.8 percent from 3-point range during their last five games.
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02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
Down four of their five best players, it's no wonder the Bulls have lost five in a row. Chicago is missing injured Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter and Wendall Carter. Now the Bulls have to face a below-the-radar Wizards squad that has won seven of their last 10 home games. Washington has gotten key role players Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Mo Wagner healthy and improved itself at the trade deadline picking up Shabazz Napier. The Wizards have beaten far better teams than the Bulls during their last 10 home contests, including knocking off the Mavericks, Nuggets and Celtics. Washington won't lack motivation either after blowing a 12-point lead at home in a loss to the Grizzlies this past Sunday. The Bulls are 4-8-1 ATS the past 13 times when taking points. Chicago averages nine fewer points per game than Washington.
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02-11-20 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total. Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game. Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
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02-10-20 | Baylor -6 v. Texas | Top | 52-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game. Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas.
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02-10-20 | Hawks v. Magic -6 | 126-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
The Magic finished 20-9 to make the playoffs last season. They are going to need a similar kick to achieve that this season being nine games below .500. The Magic need to start immediately and this matchup sets up for them. Orlando has had a day rest and is stepping way down in class after losing 111-95 to the Bucks at home on Saturday. Now the Magic go from playing the best team in the league to one of the two worst teams in the NBA. Orlando has covered seven of the last nine times versus sub .500 opponents. The Hawks rallied from eight points down in the final 90 seconds of the first overtime to defeat the Knicks, 140-135, in double overtime at home on Sunday. That was just Atlanta's 14th win in 53 games. The Hawks went all out in beating the Knicks as four players logged at least 47 minutes with big man John Collins going 49 minutes. Now the Hawks take to the road where they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Atlanta remains thin up front as recent acquistion Clint Capela won't play due to a heel injury. Besides the urgency of needing to beat the Hawks, the Magic won't be taking Atlanta lightly either as they are 0-2 against them this season.
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02-09-20 | Clippers -5.5 v. Cavs | 133-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
The Clippers buried the Cavaliers, 128-103, when they hosted them on Jan. 14. I doubt the Clippers win by 25 points again, but I do believe they beat the hapless Cavaliers by double-digits even if Kawhi Leonard sits out this game. Cleveland has lost 12 of its past 13 games, including the last five. The Cavaliers did pick up Andre Drummond. He could make his Cleveland debut here. It's going to take time, though, for the Cavaliers to adjust to Drummond, who is a better fantasy player than an NBA player. The Clippers should be in an angry mood after being humiliated, 142-115, by the Timberwolves on the road last night. The Clippers have a strong history of responding well following a loss. They are 23-7 ATS in that role and 7-1 ATS the past eight times after losing by double-digits. Cleveland has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests. |
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02-09-20 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot. Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.
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02-08-20 | Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's | Top | 90-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role. Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that. The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.
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02-08-20 | Mavs -4 v. Hornets | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Even though Dallas won't have injured Luka Doncic and are playing without rest, they still should beat the Hornets by more than this point spread. Charlotte has turned into one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Hornets have lost 12 of their last 13 games with the lone victory during this span coming against the Knicks at home. The Hornets really have problems stepping up in class. They are 4-12 ATS the past 16 times when meeting above .500 opponents. Dallas is coming off a tough 119-118 road defeat to the Wizards last night. The Mavericks didn't play well and were knocked off on a buzzer-beating layup by Bradley Beal. Dallas not only has incentive to bounce back, but also strong revenge motivation, too. Charlotte stunned the Mavericks, 123-120, in overtime as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs during the first meeting. The Mavericks are very strong in this role going 12-3-1 ATS as road chalk. The Hornets could be missing several of their rotation players. Cody Martin is in concussion protocol and veteran forward Marvin Williams is expected to sign with another team possibly the Bucks.
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02-08-20 | UT-Rio Grande Valley -14.5 v. Chicago State | 75-64 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Chicago State is a joke. And I'm going to get in line to fade the Cougars as this line probably is going to keep growing. The Cougars have lost 14 in a row. They have been blown out by 14 or more points during each of their last 13 games. Their average losing margin is 22.5 points during their last four games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 home games. Texas Rio Grande Valley is coming off two impressive victories. The Vaqueros have covered six of their last eight.
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02-07-20 | Heat +1 v. Kings | Top | 97-105 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Jimmy Butler isn't likely to play and Miami has a losing road record at 12-13. OK, now that those two items are out in the open, I still expect Miami to win this game. Better team, better coach that's why. The Heat are off a 128-111 road loss to the Clippers this past Wednesday. Miami doesn't play again until Sunday when it is at Portland. So the Heat should be fully focused. They are 20-5-1 ATS following a defeat. I consider Miami's Erik Spoelstra one of the better coaches in the league and Sacramento's Luke Walton one of the worst. The Kings are once again playing for the future. They have been dreadful at home going 3-12-1 ATS the past 16 times.
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02-07-20 | Harvard +6 v. Yale | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
You would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Harvard lost by more than three points. The Crimson have covered each time they were an underdog this season. Going back the last few years, they are 24-7-1 ATS the last 32 times when taking points. This has been a road series, too, with the visitor covering 13 of the last 17 times.
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02-06-20 | Loyola Marymount +25 v. Gonzaga | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Gonzaga is coming off an extremely tough road game against San Francisco this past Saturday. The Bulldogs had to rally for an 83-79 win. The Bulldogs meet rival St. Mary's in a key road game Saturday. Before that game, though, is this total mismatch against Loyola Marymont. It's a West Coast Conference sandwich spot for Gonzaga so I'm going to take the generous amount of points with the underdog Lions, who have covered three of their last five games and nearly upset Pepperdine in their last game, losing 68-67 in overtime this past Saturday.
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02-06-20 | Pelicans -4 v. Bulls | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
Aside from Zach LaVine, the Bulls are fielding a junior varsity lineup due to their many injuries. Guard Kris Dunn is the latest Bulls casualty. He's out with a knee injury joining Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. on the sidelines. The Bulls can't wait until All-Star break to try to regroup. They are minus their No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 leading scorers. This is their first game back from an 0-3 road trip that concluded with losses to the Nets and Raptors by a combined 42 points. Those defeats put Chicago 14 games below .500, its low mark of the season. New Orleans is on the upswing. The Pelicans were playing well even before Zion Williamson joined the lineup. There's a chance Williamson doesn't play here because of a sprained toe, but New Orleans still has way more talent than the Bulls with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick. The Pelicans are dropping way down in class having just played the hot Grizzlies, Rockets and Bucks. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS the past nine times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulls have failed to cover 20 of the last 26 times as a home underdog and are 1-8 ATS versus the Pelicans at home. The teams met on Jan. 8 in New Orleans and the Pelicans easily handed the Bulls, 123-108.
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz -7.5 | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Yes, current form is important. But this is trumped by situation when it comes to the long grind-out season of the NBA. The Jazz have that key element going here along with a powerful home history against the Nuggets. Utah has lost four in a row. The Jazz also haven't played in four days. They are going to be ready for this matchup especially after losing six days ago to the Nuggets, 106-100, on the road. The Jazz played at San Antonio the previous night before losing to the Nuggets. Utah still might have beaten Denver if star guard Donovan Mitchell would have had just a normal game. Instead, Mitchell had one of his worst games of the season missing 11 of 12 shots from the field. This time around it's the Nuggets who are without rest facing a revenge-minded, ravenous Jazz squad. Denver is coming off an impressive, 127-99, home win against the Trail Blazers Tuesday night. Jamal Muray returned from injury for Denver aginst the Trail Blazers. However, forward Jerami Grant suffered an ankle injury. Denver already is without big men Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee. Michael Porter could be out, too, severely restricting Denver's frontcourt depth. Grant, Millsap and Plumlee are Denver's best interior defenders. Rudy Gobert should be able to dominate inside while an obviously highly motivated Mitchell should produce big in the backcourt. Denver is 4-11 ATS following a victory and 3-7 ATS when playing without rest. The Nuggets also have failed to cover in 10 of their last 11 visits to Salt Lake City losing on the road to the Jazz the past nine times.
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02-05-20 | Bradley v. Drake | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge. The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road. Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines.
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02-04-20 | Hornets +14 v. Rockets | 110-125 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
The Hornets just lost lost 112-100 at home to Orlando for their 11th loss in 12 games. So why get involved with them here besides the obvious taking a generous amount of points? The Hornets outrebounded the Magic by nine and outplayed them in the paint. Orlando's strength is its frontcourt. The Magic won, though, because they uncharacteristically buried 16 of 34 shots from 3-point range. The Magic are 29th in scoring and 28th in 3-point field goal percentage. Charlotte is slightly below average in 3-point defense ranking 19th. Charlotte has covered the past five times following a double-digit home loss. The Hornets also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest. The other side of this equation is Houston. The Rockets are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. They just beat the Mavericks and Pelicans at home. The Mavericks were minus Luka Doncic and the Pelicans got caught peeking ahead to their nationally televised matchup against the Bucks today while adjusting to how to play basketball with Zion Williamson. After this matchup, the Rockets meet the Lakers in LA on Thursday in a nationally televised game. So this matchup isn't a high priority for Houston. The Rockets aren't expected to have big man Clint Capela nor Russell Westbrook, who hurt his thumb against the Pelicans on Sunday. So Houston likely will be without two of its three best players. The Rockets figure to play small ball again going without anyone taller than 6-foot-6. The Rockets did that against the Mavericks and Pelicans and got away with it despite getting outrebounded by a combined 35 boards in those two games. Charlotte has several unsung, lunch-pail type big men who are adept rebounders. They can help keep the Hornets within this large point spread.
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02-04-20 | Bucks -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
No doubt the Pelicans are going to be sky-high for this nationally televised (TNT) home matchup now that they have Zion Williamson healthy and living up to his hype averaging 19.5 points and shooting 61.5 percent from the floor. But a couple of things are being overlooked with this line opening too short in my view. The Bucks are the best team in basketball and they, too, will be highly motivated to perform well here. The small-market Bucks don't take nationally televised games for granted like the big market teams do. Milwaukee has a lot of pride. That pride was stung when Giannis Antetokounmpo and other Bucks felt their team should have received more All-Star Game roster spots. The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games. All of those victories except one were by at least nine points. The Bucks are at the top of their game. The Pelicans are 3-3 since Williamson returned from knee surgery. The Pelicans are still in the feeling out process with Williamson and his teammates. They are not fully in sync yet. The Pelicans were not match for the Bucks when they lost 127-112 at Milwaukee on Dec. 11. Williamson didn't play then. But Antetokounmpo also missed that game.
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02-03-20 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The Grizzlies may be ahead of schedule with their many promising young players. They are holding down the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with the Trail Blazers and Spurs chasing them. I don't know if Memphis can make the playoffs. I'd be kind of surprised if the Grizzlies did finish ahead of the veteran Trail Blazers and Spurs. But I do know the Grizzlies have a deep pool of talented youngsters and can beat bad teams like the Pistons at home especially when the spot is favorable as it is here. Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games. The Pistons rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and coming off a 128-123 home overtime victory against the Nuggets on Sunday. Detroit rallied from 21 points in the win. Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost five in a row with the losing margin being by an average of 12.2 points. Derrick Rose suffered a groin injury against the Nuggets. He's not expected to play. Rose has been tremendous this season. He and Andre Drummond have been Detroit's best players by far. Rose is the Pistons' most complete player. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are itching to play again after being embarrassed by the Pelicans this past Friday, 139-111. That was the game following the Grizzlies' 127-106 road win against the Knicks that turned ugly at the end. Jaren Jackson sat out his one game suspension against New Orleans. He'll be play here. The Grizzlies also are hoping Brandon Clarke can play, too. He's been bothered by a sore hip. Even with that loss to the Pelicans, the Grizzlies still have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes a 125-112 road victory versus the Pistons on Jan. 24. Jackson scored 29 points in that win.
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02-03-20 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Toronto is going for its eighth straight home win against Florida. I think the Maple Leafs will get it. So does the oddsmaker making the Maple Leafs such a heavy favorite. But I also believe this is a kill spot for the Maple Leafs so I'm turning the juice around from heavy minus to a solid plus price by laying a goal and a half on the puck line. The Maple Leafs are 3-0 coming out of All-Star break. They are playing extremely well and in a big revenge spot. The Panthers embarrassed the Maple Leafs, 8-4, in Florida three weeks ago. This time around the Maple Leafs draw the Panthers playing for just the second time since Jan. 21. Florida has played only once since break losing, 4-0, on the road to the Canadiens this past Saturday. Florida could also be without its second-leading scorer, center Aleksander Barkov. He suffered a lower-body injury against Montreal.
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02-02-20 | Suns v. Bucks -12 | 108-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. They have actually played better on the road than at home. Devin Booker has All-Star numbers. He should have been selected to be an All-Star. But all of this is trumped by the Bucks being the best team in basketball, being home and in an angry mood following a surprising, 127-115, home defeat to the road-weary Nuggets this past Friday. That was just the Bucks' third home loss of the season in 25 games at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are 25-9 (74%) ATS following a defeat. So no disrespect to the Suns, but I want the Bucks going for me in this spot.
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02-01-20 | Jazz -5 v. Blazers | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
Forget the 14-1 record from Dec. 26-Jan. 25. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row with the latter coming in back-to-back road settings against the Spurs and Nuggets. Now the Jazz have had a day to regroup and they gain a scheduling edge. They draw the Trail Blazers, who just won an emotional road game Friday night against the Lakers in the backdrop of Kobe Bryant's untimely death. This is just the second time since Dec. 21 Portland is playing without rest. The last time was Jan. 18 and the Trail Blazers lost, 119-106, at the Thunder. The Trail Blazers have surrendered their once lofty home-court edge. They are 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests. The Jazz are a top-four Western Conference team. The Trail Blazers have been a major disappointment and wouldn't be in the postseason if the regular season ended this weekend. The Trail Blazers are traveling back home saturated after last night's huge victory, Utah should be fully focused to end its losing streak knowing they won't be in action for another four days following this game.
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02-01-20 | Rutgers v. Michigan | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This matchup is part of the Big Ten's Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden in New York. Michigan is 3-0 in neutral site games this season, while Rutgers is 1-5 in neutral-site matchups. The Wolverines have won nine in a row playing at Madison Square Garden. They also are a perfect 10-0 lifetime verus Rutgers winning the last five in the series by an average of 10.4 points. Rutgers is a much stronger team when playing at home. The Wolverines defeated Nebraska, 79-68, this past Tuesday minus suspended guard Zavier Simpson. Rutgers struggled against Nebraska two games ago, finally defeating the Cornhuskers, 75-72, as 13.5-point home favorites last Saturday. Simpson will be back in action in this game for Michigan. That's huge. Theer's a chance the Wolverines also could get back Isaiah Livers from a groin injury. That would be an added bonus, but I like Michigan to win this game with or without Livers.
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01-31-20 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
The Raptors have won nine in a row going 6-3 ATS. The Pistons are 15 games below .500. They've lost four in a row - all by double-digits. So I'm going to ride the much superior and hotter club against a dead Pistons team that has been a huge money-loser at home, 2-9 ATS in their 11 home contest. The line is short because the Raptors played on Thursday and weren't that sharp in a 115-109 road win against the Cavaliers. Toronto should play better here. The Raptors destroyed the Pistons, 122-99, when the teams last met in Detroit on Dec. 18. Look for a similar result here. |
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01-30-20 | Cal-Irvine -4.5 v. UC-Davis | Top | 80-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is a class above UC Davis and due to play better after its coach, Russell Turner, took his team to task for recent performances. The Anteaters went 31-6 last year giving up 63.6 points a game. Irvine is strong again this season yielding 65.6 points while averaging 73.4. The Anteaters had their 14-game Big West Conference road streak broken in their last away game, losing to Long Beach State, 63-56, eight days ago. They followed that up with a lackluster, 74-67, home win against Cal Poly this past Saturday as 16-point favorites. Prior to those two games, the Anteaters had covered five in a row. I see Cal Irvine getting back on track with a focused road effort here. UC Davis is 2-6 ATS at home this season. The Aggies lost both matchups to Irvine last season, including, 64-48, at home last Feb. 28.
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01-29-20 | Lightning -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 4-2 | Win | 132 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Look for Tampa Bay to beat the Kings for an eighth straight time - and in a big way, too. The Lightning came out of All-Star break not looking good in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Stars on Monday. They will look to take their frustrations out on a rusty Kings squad that hasn't played in 11 days and is 1-6-1 in their last eight games. The Kings don't have much of a home ice edge and the mood figures to be somber in LA so soon after the death of Kobe Bryant. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is having a strong January with a .955 save percentage.
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01-29-20 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -6 | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
I want Bradley going for me off a loss and being home against a bad road team in Valparaiso. The Braves are 11-1 at home this season and 10-1 ATS off a loss. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference in rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Bradley also has covered 72 percent of the past 37 times when playing at home against an opponent with a less than .400 road winning percentage.
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01-28-20 | Florida State v. Virginia +1 | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Florida State is riding a 10-game win streak. But I like Virginia's defense, grit and home-court to prevail. The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined nine points with one game going into overtime. They have failed to cover in all three games. One of these victories came 13 days ago when the Seminoles defeated the Cavaliers, 54-40, as 6.5-point home favorites. The Cavaliers missed 12 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that loss. Florida State pulled the game out by outscoring Virginia, 10-3, down the stretch. I don't see that happening at Virginia.
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01-26-20 | Suns v. Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
It's not a misprint. If the season ended today, the Grizzlies would be in the playoffs. Memphis has come on winning eight of its last 10 games, going 7-3 ATS, to grab the eighth spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix is much improved, too. But the Grizzlies are the better team with more balanced scoring and prime rookie of the year candidate Ja Morant trumping Ricky Rubio at point guard. Morant is averaging 17.4 points and 7.1 assists. Sparked by Morant, the Grizzlies are the highest scoring team in the league this month. Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 15 of its last 16 games. Phoenix ranks 20th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Suns enter this matchup a bit fat and happy having defeated the Spurs this past Friday in San Antonio. It was the Suns' first win there in seven years. The Suns beat the Grizzlies on Nov. 2. Memphis has improved a great deal since then beating the Suns, 115-108, on Dec. 11 and 121-114 on Jan. 5. Both of those victories came at Phoenix.
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01-26-20 | San Diego State v. UNLV +7.5 | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
UNLV has turned around its season winning six in a row. The Rebels are strong on the offensive glass ranking sixth nationally in offensive rebound percentage. This could be a serious problem for San Diego State, whose rotation is missing Nathan Mensah and possibly Aguek Arop. The Aztecs are 20-0. But their strong defense will be tested in this tough road setting as UNLV has the most efficient offense in the Mountain West Conference.
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01-25-20 | CS-Northridge -1.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
Lamine Diane is firmly back in Cal State-Northridge's lineup after missing games due to off-court issues. Diane makes a huge difference. Just ask Cal Santa Barbara. Sparked by Diane's 27 points, the Matadors upset Santa Barbara as big road 'dogs, 83-75, this past Wednesday. It was the seventh time in their last nine road games, the Matadors have covered the spread. Cal State-Fullerton is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 home games, including failing to cover the past nine times as a home 'dog.
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01-25-20 | Mavs v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Utah is the hottest team in the NBA winning 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz's last three victories have been by an average of 28.3 points. Dallas is one of the most improved teams in the NBA, but this is a tough road spot for the Mavericks. The Jazz have been idle since Wednesday, while the Mavericks played on Thursday and earlier this week lost underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with an Achilles injury. The Mavericks beat the Trail Blazers in Portland on Thursday in their first game without Powell. I don't see them doing that to the Jazz, who can exploit the injury with Rudy Gobert playing at such a high level. The Jazz have covered their last seven home games and are 13-3 ATS the past 16 times laying points.
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01-25-20 | Bradley v. Indiana State -2.5 | 53-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Indiana State is one of those great at home teams - 7-0 - bad on the road, where it is 1-6. Bradley is dealing with injuries to key players and has to deal with the Sycamores long range shooting as they lead the Missouri Valley Conference in 3-point shooting percentage.
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01-24-20 | Rockets -5 v. Wolves | 131-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
It doesn't matter than Karl Anthony-Towns is back. The Timberwolves remain terrible. They have lost seven in a row. Minnesota has been terrible at home all season winning just six of 21 times at Target Center. The Timberwolves have covered only 32 percent of their past 26 games. The buy sign is back on Houston after the Rockets beat the Nuggets, 121-105, at home two days ago. The Rockets play at Denver, Utah and Portland in their next three games. So they don't want to open this road trip with a loss to the worst team.
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01-24-20 | Raptors -7.5 v. Knicks | 118-112 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
The Raptors are healthy again and dangerous. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and Marc Gasol are all back on the court. Toronto has gone off on a five-game winning streak covering four of those games. Toronto's average winning margin during its win streak is 16.2 points. The Raptors buried the Knicks, 126-98, when they last met on Nov. 27. The Knicks are short-handed minus RJ Barrett and are 2-9 in their last 11 games. New York has surrendered 117 or more points in eight of their last 11 games.
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01-24-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Kent State started 13-3, but the Golden Flashes are struggling now with a three-game losing streak. I don't see Kent State getting well on the road against two-time defending Mid-American Conference champion Buffalo. The Bulls have won four in a row and won't want to be embarrassed on national TV. Buffalo can be outstanding rebounding on the offensive end and Kent State hasn't done a good job rebounding on the defensive glass.
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01-23-20 | Mavs v. Blazers +4.5 | 133-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Home-court advantage, line value and rapid revenge all put me on the Trail Blazers. Dallas and Portland have essentially traded places. The Mavericks have become a solid playoff team, while the Trail Blazers are now a lottery club. I accept that, but do believe Dallas is due for a regression - especially losing underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon - and Portland is due for an uptick. The Trail Blazers shouldn't lack incentive having lost, 120-112, on the road to the Mavericks six days ago. Portland has beaten the Mavericks each of the last three times it has hosted them. Kristaps Porzingis looked extremely rusty on Tuesday in his first game back from missing eight games with a knee injury. This will be his second game since the injury. Luka Doncic is a great guard. But so is prideful Damian Lillard, who won't want Doncic to show up his team at home.
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01-22-20 | Nuggets v. Rockets -8 | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a true stop-the-pain game for the Rockets. They have lost four in a row with the latest being a 112-107 home loss to the Thunder on Monday. James Harden missed 16 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Harden is shooting 18 percent from the floor during this losing skid. Harden and the Rockets are overdue to perform much better. This spot sets up for them. The Nuggets have beaten up five patsies in going 6-2 in their last eight games. Denver, though, is missing three starters - Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. This marks the Nuggets' third game in four days. The Nuggets have a terrible history in Houston losing the past seven times there. The teams meet again four days later in Denver. Houston hosted Denver on Dec. 31 and won, 130-104. That was the Rockets' 11th victory in the past 13 meetings versus Denver.
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01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
I want Purdue going for me here off a loss and in revenge mode. Illinois is playing well, winning four in a row. But the Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road contests when meeting a foe with a winning home record. Purdue has one of the strongest home-courts in the nation. The Boilermakers are 8-1 at home this season and have won 15 consecutive Big Ten home matchups. Purdue is coming off a 57-50 road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS following a loss. The Boilermakers also have revenge for an embarrassing 63-37 road defeat to Illinois four games ago. Purdue shot a school-worst 25 percent from the floor in that loss. The Boilermakers have won the last eight times they've hosted the Illini.
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01-20-20 | Oklahoma +10 v. Baylor | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Baylor got past Iowa State and escaped Oklahoma State on Saturday. Things don't let up for the No. 2 ranked Bears, though, with this matchup. Oklahoma has its confidence again after beating TCU, 83-63, two days ago. Baylor had a much more difficult time with its Saturday victory against the Cowboys trailing by 12 in the second half. It was a terrible beat for those who backed Oklahoma State at plus 6. The Cowboys trailed by three with 14 seconds left, but ended up losing by seven when Baylor sank four free throws at the end. It was the only time all game that the Bears led by that many points. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.
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01-18-20 | 76ers -3.5 v. Knicks | 90-87 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
No Joel Embiid and a 7-14 road record make the 76ers just a short favorite against the Knicks. Despite those obstacles, the 76ers still are a much better team than New York rendering this point spread as being too short. Philadelphia has defeated New York 10 straight times. Even without Embiid, the 76ers still are two levels higher than the Knicks. New York has multiple injuries in the backcourt, including one to shooting guard RJ Barrett.
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01-18-20 | West Virginia v. Kansas State +6 | Top | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
West Virginia is in a vulnerable spot coming off probably its best game of the season, an 81-49 home win against TCU this past Tuesday. The Mountaineers shot a season-high 58 percent from the floor. The Mountaineers are going to have to take desperate Kansas State's best punch. The Wildcats' Big 12 season hangs in the balance as they are 0-4. Kansas State is one of the top 45 defenses in the country and they are going to be tough at home in this spot. West Virginia has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a road favorite.
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01-17-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -9 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
Wisconsin is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The Badgers have a losing away mark. The spot isn't good either for Wisconsin. The Badgers are off a thrilling, 56-54, home win against 17th-ranked Maryland this past Tuesday, while Michigan State has had five days to think about its worst loss in three years, a 71-42 road defeat to Purude this past Sunday. The Spartans have covered 68 percent of their last 52 home games versus below .500 road opponents. They have won 11 straight against Wisconsin in East Lansing. Michigan State's best players - Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman and Aaron Henry - are all off their worst performance. They won't lack motivation. The Badgers can't match that being away from Madison.
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01-16-20 | Suns -3 v. Knicks | Top | 121-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The Suns aren't as good minus point guard Ricky Rubio. The combination of missing Rubio and having the Hawks shooting 49.5 percent caused Phoenix to lose, 123-110, to Atlanta on Tuesday. Rubio is back and I like Phoenix to cover this small number off that bad loss. The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the league, while the Knicks remain one of the worst. New York also could be without its leading scorer, Marcus Morris. He's missed the past five games due to a sore neck. The Knicks could be short-handed at point guard, too, which is one of their many areas of weakness. Phoenix is 6-2 ATS the past eight times on the road meeting a foe with a losing home mark. The Suns also have covered seven of the past nine times at Madison Square Garden. |
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01-14-20 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 54-56 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Wisconsin has a very strong home-court and is a better team with big man Micah Potter, an Ohio State transfer, settling in. Potter, who became eligible six games ago, scored a career-high 24 points with 13 rebound as the Badgers defeated then 20th-ranked Penn State, 58-49, on the road this past Saturday. Now the Badgers are in Madison where they are extremely tough. Big Ten home teams are a mind-boggling 32-5 in conference games this season for 86 percent! Consequently, Maryland is a weak road club. The Terrapins have lost their three true road games and are 1-5 ATS in their past six away contests. Maryland just lost by 18 points at Iowa three days ago.
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01-14-20 | Devils v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
The Devils are off two monster upsets beating the Capitals on the road and Lightning at home. This is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. Toronto in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing skid. Previous to that, though, they had won nine of 10. The Maple Leafs have won by multiple goals in 10 of their last 11 victories. I see this as a kill spot for the frustrated Maple Leafs.
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01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
The Suns find themselves favored by more points than they have all season. Is it justified? Maybe by the oddsmaker's perspective, but not by mine. The Suns are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they've been favored this season. Their record at home is 8-14. They are 4-9-1 ATS during their last 14 home contests. Charlotte can't beat or usually hang with good teams. But the Hornets have 13 victories versus sub .500 opponents. They play them tough. Charlotte is 5-2 the past seven times meeting a foe with a losing record. Terry Rozier, the Hornets' key player, is hot averaging 27.4 points on 51.1 percent shooting from the floor in his last five games. The Hornets have proven themselves on the road, too, covering eight of the last 10 times when going against opponents with a below .500 home mark. Red-hot Utah blew Charlotte out in the Hornets' last road game. However, the Hornets upset the Mavericks in their road game before that one.
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01-12-20 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 42-71 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
I'm going to ride Michigan State. The Spartans are playing well - eight straight wins - and match up well to Purdue. The Boilermakers have a tough frontcourt with big men Matt Haarms and Trevion Williams. But the Spartans rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and have the tough perimeter defense that Purdue needs to dent in order to set up its inside game. The Boilermakers, though, have been cold from the outside especially from long range missing 27 of their last 36 shots from 3-point range. Michigan State holds a backcourt edge led by point guard Cassius Winston, who is one of the best in the country. The Boilermakers are 0-5-1 ATS the last six times they've been 'dogs.
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01-11-20 | Mississippi State +8 v. LSU | 59-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
LSU sits tied for the lead in the SEC at 2-0 with victories against Tennessee and Arkansas. Mississippi State is 0-2 in the SEC with losses to Auburn and Alabama by an average of 16.5 points. So things should be easy for LSU, right? Not necessarily. The Tigers are going to get the desperate Bulldogs' best effort, which should be good enough to put them safely in this point spread range. The teams met once last year and LSU won by four points in overtime. A key for the Bulldogs is guard Tyson Carter, the team's second-leading scorer. Carter is a great free throw shooter, but has missed 22 of his last 27 shots from the floor in the last two games. Carter is due to shoot much better.
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01-11-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -10.5 | Top | 59-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Toledo is superior to Western Michigan and in the ultimate stop-the-pain mode having lost five in a row. I'm expecting the Rockets to take their frustrations out on the Broncos. They have defeated Western Michigan the past four times, including whipping the Broncos by 19 points at home last March. Toledo is a much better offensive team than Western Michigan averaging nearly 10 points more per game. The Broncos are also weak defensively ranking 279th.
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01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Luka Doncic had a rare off-game when the Mavericks last played the Nuggets. That was back in October at Denver. Yet the Mavericks still won, 109-106. Doncic has been putting up monster numbers. The Mavericks' firepower is bolstered with Tim Hardaway Jr. back from a hamstring injury. It's a plus if Kristpas Porzingis can play after missing the past four games with a knee injury. I still like the Mavericks regardless of Porzingis' status. The Nuggets aren't nearly as good on the road where they are 2-6-2 ATS when meeting a foe with a winning home mark. It's Denver's fifth consecutive away matchup and concludes its nine-day road trip. So there is a fatigue factor against them, too. Dallas is 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 times when favored. The Mavericks also are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times hosting the Nuggets.
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01-08-20 | La Salle v. Massachusetts -3 | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
LaSalle is 10-4. UMass is 6-8. Yet the oddsmaker opened UMass a slight faovrite. Early market activity has been on the Minutemen. What does that say? It tells me UMass is the right side. The Minutemen have covered eight of their last nine home games. This isn't a fluke. UMass plays much better at home averaging 80.5 points and shooting 48 percent from the floor. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering six of the past eight in the series.
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01-07-20 | South Florida v. East Carolina +4 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
South Florida is nothing special. But the Bulls are inflated road favorites here after defeating Connecticut by 15 points at home in their last game. The Bulls have not won a road game all season. East Carolina has the best player in Jayden Gardner and plays better at home. The Pirates have won their last four home games.
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01-06-20 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 123-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This spot sets up for the road favorite Nuggets. Denver is 1-2 on its current road trip, which concludes on Wednesday at Dallas. The Nuggets are coming off an embarrassing, 128-114, loss to the short-handed Wizards. Denver coach Michael Malone ripped his team following that humiliation. The Nuggets are far superior to the Hawks, who are the worst team in the NBA at 8-28. Denver shouldn't lack incentive against this bottom feeder especially since one of the Hawks' rare victories was achieved against the Nuggets in the first meeting back on Nov. 12. Atlanta is off a surprising, 116-111, home win against the Pacers this past Saturday. That was just the Hawks' second home win since Dec. 2. Atlanta is 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS in its past 13 games. The last time the Hawks won consecutive games was the first two games of the season. The Hawks are dealing with injuries with John Collins (back), Jabari Parker (throat) and Cam Reddish (wrist) all hurt.
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01-05-20 | Blazers v. Heat -5.5 | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
I find this line too short. Miami is at least one level higher than Portland, has a strong home-court advantage and situational elements favor the Heat, too. Miami is 16-1 at home. That's the best home mark in the NBA. Portland is 7-12 on the road and has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. The Trail Blazers also are 0-5 ATS the last five times taking points. The Heat should be fired-up after suffering an embarrassing 20-point loss to Orlando two days. This marks Portland's third road game in five days. The Trail Blazers took advantage of a decimated Washington squad to beat the Wizards, 122-103, this past Friday. Before that victory, the Trail Blazers had lost five straight. The Trail Blazers are thin up front with big men Zach Collins and Skal Labissiere out. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams. Miami swept Portland last season winning the two games by an average of 9.5 points. The Heat are much improved this season while Portland has severely regressed.
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01-05-20 | Davidson +3.5 v. Duquesne | 64-71 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
The record shows 11-2. But I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I went against the Dukes last Sunday when they were 7-point road favorites against Marshall and was easily rewarded when Marshall won, 83-61. I'm going to fade the Dukes again this Sunday because the linesmaker still is valuing them too high again. Duquesne played an extremely soft non-conference schedule. Davidson didn't. The Wildcats have covered three of their last four, including upsetting Loyola of Chicago on the road.
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01-04-20 | Pistons v. Warriors +3 | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
I expect the Warriors to give a strong effort at home after being embarrassed, 99-84, at home by the Timberwolves on Thursday. Golden State does have multiple injuries, but some of its promising young players are back healthy. Golden State has shown some resiliency, too, covering eight of the last 11 times following a loss. Still, the major basis of this handicap is a fade on the Pistons. They have multiple injuries, too, with Blake Griffin, Markieff Morris and Luke Kennard banged-up. Detroit has lost and failed to cover in eight of its last nine games. The Pistons are 5-16-1 ATS on the road. Morale is bad with Andre Drummond being openly shopped as trade bait.
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
So what did the Patriots' shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 mean besides hosting a wild-card game instead of getting a bye? It means line value on New England as I consider this number too short. Look for Tom Brady to step up as the weaknesses on Tennessee's defense - vulnerable to short passes and a banged-up secondary that ranks 24th in pass defense and 27th in quarterback hit rate - suit his strengths and that of the Patriots. Brady can still pick apart defenses that are vulnerable to short passes, which the Titans are. Sony Michel is running better and Julian Edelman is healthier than he has been giving Brady his security blanket. New England has much the superior defense. The Patriots surrendered the fewest points and yards in the NFL. Their run defense has looked good, too, holding opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry during the last five games. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are Ryan Tannehill's two major weapons. The Patriots can afford to bring their safeties into the box to help on Henry because cornerback Stephon Gilmore has the talent cover Brown one-on-one. Gilmore may have been the best defensive player in the NFL this season. Tannehill is unproven in big games such as this. He has a poor record, too, versus defensive guru Bill Belichk with a 4-7 mark, 11 interceptions and a 60.1 percent completion rate. The Titans also are bucking these monster numbers: The Patriots have covered 68 percent of their last 65 home games, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and are 48-22-1 (69 percent) following a loss.
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01-04-20 | Jazz -4.5 v. Magic | 109-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Utah has been sailing below the radar. The Jazz are 9-1 in their last 10 games, 7-2 ATS. The Jazz had beaten the Magic 14 of the last 18 times, including 109-102, at home three weeks ago. The timing is good for Utah to continue its dominance. The rested Jazz catch the Magic off a big 105-85 win against in-state rival Miami. The Magic accomplished this without their best defender, Jonathan Isaac. He's out with a knee injury. Aaron Gordon returned to Orlando's lineup after being out with an Achilles injury. But Gordon's minutes may be limited since this is the second of a back-to-back game. The Magic usually fail when stepping up in class. The Jazz are a level higher than Orlando.
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01-03-20 | Pelicans +11 v. Lakers | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
The Pelicans come in extremely well-rested having been idle the past four days. Brandon Ingram has become a star taking some of the sting of not having projected superstar rookie Zion Williamson. New Orleans is playing its best ball winning a season-best four games in a row. The Pelicans' average win margin in these games is 14.3 points and they've done it against strong competition defeating the Rockets, Pacers and Nuggets in their last three games. A major key in the Pelicans' turnaround has been defensive improvement. They've held five of their past seven opponents to 100 points or fewer. The Lakers are just 3-4 in their last seven games. They have failed to cover seven of the last nine times laying points. The Pelicans have strong incentive taking on the Lakers with Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart being former Lakers. The Pelicans played the Lakers tight in the first meeting, losing 114-110, at home on Nov. 27. New Orleans is playing much better now.
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01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada +8 | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Akron and Bowling Green were the two worst teams in the Mid-American Conference this season. Ohio blew both of them out during its last two games. If you discount those two games, though, the Bobcats went 2-8 ATS, including an 0-6 ATS mark when favored. They also failed to cover in the four games they played against other bowl teams. Nevada is undervalued here, too, because while Ohio was blowing out bad opponents the Wolf Pack fell to UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite in their final regular season game. Nevada is better as a 'dog than favorite. The Wolf Pack defeated Purdue, San Diego State and Fresno State straight-up all as a double-digit 'dog. The Wolf Pack also knows this venue in Idaho and its higher elevation and unique blue field because they play Boise State being in the Mountain West Conference.
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Boston College was the sixth-best rushing team in the nation. Most of its rushing yards, though, were provided by AJ Dillon, one of the premier running backs in college football. Dillon is turning pro so he's sitting out this game. Dillon led the ACC in rushing with 1,685 yards. That's just one of the Eagles' many problems. BC's coach, Steve Addazio, was fired at the end of the regular season and the Eagles' offensive coordinator, Mike Bajakian, left to take a job at Northwestern. The Eagles lost their starting quarterback, Anthony Brown, to a knee injury and backup QB sophomore David Bailey has been erratic. Cincinnati is far more stable. The Bearcats have a major edge on defense and a balanced offensive attack with quarterback Desmond Ridder healthy again and solid running backs MIchael Warren III and Gerrid Oaks. |
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01-01-20 | Blazers -3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 93-117 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers are in stop-the-pain mode after losing at home to the Suns, 122-116, this past Monday for their fourth consecutive loss. Portland is having a disappointing season, but remain a far superior team to the Knicks. That was proven when the Trail Blazers destroyed the Knicks, 115-87, three weeks ago. It was Portland's sixth straight win against New York. The Knicks couldn't stop the Trail Blazers' star guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who combined for 58 points. New York is in big trouble again the backcourt against those two. The Knicks could be down to one healthy point guard, Elfrid Payton, as Frank Ntilikna (groin) and Dennis Smith Jr. (oblique) are both questionable. Carmelo Anthony should be stoked to go all out returning to Madison Square Garden having starred for the Knicks for seven seasons.
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12-30-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Bulls | 123-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
This spread is much lower than what it normally is when these two teams meet. The reason being Giannis Antetokounmpo could miss a third straight game. The Bucks beat the Hawks on the road and the Magic at home by an average of 18.5 points in their last two games, minus Antetokounmpo. I like Milwaukee here and will lock in now. If Antetokounmpo happens to play that would be a huge bonus. Milwaukee is the best team in basketball. One of the Bucks' major strengths is how deep they are. They rank No. 1 in scoring and in both offensive AND defensive field goal percentage. The Bulls rank 27th in shooting percentage. Chicao is 7-10 at home while the Bucks are 13-3 on the road. Milwaukee has covered the past seven times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Bucks have defeated their long-time division rival eight straight times, including by nine points at home and by 14 points in Chicago during the first two meetings this season. The Bucks have dominated the Bulls more when playing in Chicago winning the past seven times there by an average of 15.8 points. All of the victories at United Center during this span have been by 11 or more points.
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12-30-19 | Green Bay +6 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Wright State and Northern Kentucky were the preseason picks to win the Horizon League with Green Bay in the top four. Green Bay played at Wright State this past Saturday and was leading by five points with less than five minutes left before losing, 90-84, but covering as 10-point underdogs. Now the Phoenix draw Northern Kentucky on the road. The oddsmaker is taking into account not only Northern Kentucky being at home, but also beating Green Bay five consecutive times. Half of those victories, though, were by six points or less. Northern Kentucky also has a pair of key injuries. Leading scorer and rebounder for the Norse Dantez Walton is out. Jalen Tate, the Norse's top assist guy and one of the best players in the Horizon League, isn't likely to play either. So Green Bay catches a huge break to be playing the Norse now. The Phoenix play fast and have been receiving solid guard play. They are averaging more than 82 points a game, which is eight points more per game than Northern Kentucky averages.
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
Seattle is far more experienced in big prime time game such as this and owns an eight-game win streak against the 49ers. The Seahawks are banged-up defensively, but are getting some of those players back, including Jadeveon Clowney. The 49ers also have key defensive injuries namely Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The Seahawks have won a staggering 84 percent of their prime time games under Pete Carroll, including beating the 49ers, 27-24, on the road in a Week 10 Monday night game. The Seahawks have a monster edge at quarterback in a matchup of Russell Wilson versus Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks took care of their injury situation at running back by bringing back Marshawn Lynch. They also have an underrated running back in Travis Homer.
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12-29-19 | Raiders v. Broncos -3 | 15-16 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
Not that the Raiders have any realisticchance for the playoffs, which they will know for sure when the early start time games finish, but they also aren't winning this game even if their morale isn't destroyed by being eliminated. The Broncos have gotten better under first-year coach Vic Fangio and rookie QB Drew Lock, winning three of their last four. Denver has revenge for a 24-16 opening week loss to the Raiders that set a bad tone for the first half of the season. Oakland has been terrible since late November going 1-4 with losses to the Jets, Chiefs, Titans and Jaguars. They have been outscored by 80 points during this span. The weather is expected to be in the 30s, which is bad news for Derek Carr. He's 0-9 the past nine times when playing in temperatures below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 65.9 compared to 94.7 in other games. Running back Josh Jacobs, the Raiders' best skill position player, isn't expected to play either because of a shoulder injury.
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Baltimore is going to be resting starters, including Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens still are going to give a strong effort against their long-time hated division rival. Baltimore is riding an 11-game win streak on pace to become the first team in NFL history to average 200 yards both rushing and passing. The Steelers don't have the offense to beat this team on the road. Not with Duck Hodges behind center and missing James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey. Ravens backup QB, Robert Griffin III, is a much better player than the extremely limited Hodges. Pittsburgh has managed just eight touchdowns on offense during its last seven games. That won't get the job done against a well-coached prideful Ravens team that would rather not enter the playoffs with a loss especially at home where they haven't lost since September.
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12-29-19 | Duquesne v. Marshall +7 | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. The Dukes are 10-1, but have played a very weak schedule. They were exposed by UAB, 77-68, in their last game getting upset as nine-point favorites. The oddsmaker still is overrating the Dukes here in this non-conference, neutral site matchup being played in Cleveland. Marshall has received a boost from freshman guard Andrew Taylor, who joined the team this month. The Thundering Herd have won three of their last four games, averaging 86.2 points during this span.
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12-29-19 | Packers v. Lions +13.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Green Bay is traveling on a short week after a monster road win on Monday against the Vikings. The Packers simply need to win here not cover a margin. That's what happened in the first meeting when Green Bay was lucky to win at home. The Packers prevailed, 23-22, on a field goal at the gun. Green Bay was the recipient of several gift calls from the officials that aided them in that victory. The Lions will be motivated by revenge and a chance to close the season on a positive note. Having Kerryon Johnson back, their top runner, takes some of the load off David Blough. Green Bay isn't nearly as dominant as its 12-3 record may indicate ranking below average in both yards gained and yards allowed.
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12-28-19 | Kings v. Canucks -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
The Kings upset the Sharks, 3-2, in overtime at San Jose on Friday. The Kings' reward? They have to fly to Vancouver for a game today against the well rested Canucks. The Kings have lost 40 of the past 56 times following a victory. Vancouver last was in action this past Monday. The Canucks entered the holiday break hot winning three in a row with all of the victories coming at home. Vancouver scored 13 goals during those three games. The Canucks have won the last four times they've met the Kings.
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12-28-19 | Pistons v. Spurs -4 | Top | 109-136 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
The Spurs could be the most inconsistent team in the NBA. They have been playing better lately, though, and are in a big home revenge spot. The Pistons embarrassed the Spurs, 132-98, four weeks ago in Detroit. I like Gregg Popovich in payback mode. The situation sets up for San Antonio, too. The Pistons are thin in the bakcourt with Reggie Jackson and now Luke Kennard out. Derrick Rose and Bruce Brown are less than 100 percent. Blake Griffin is batting aliments, too. The Spurs are off a loss to the Mavericks, while the Pistons just destroyed the Wizards, 132-102, this past Thursday. The Pistons are 2-8-1 ATS following a victory. Detroit also has been miserable as a road 'dog posting a 3-11-1 ATS mark the past 15 times in that role.
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12-27-19 | Washington State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 5 m | Show |
You couldn't ask for a bigger contrast in styles with Air Force a top rushing team and Washington State a great passing team. The Cougars led the nation in passing with Anthony Gordon putting up better numbers than any QB, including Joe Burrow. Gordon has a slew of talented wideouts. Air Force is better versus the run than pass. The Falcons are used to running teams in the Mountain West Conference. Their pass defensive numbers look better than what their talent level is since they played Colgate along with heavily ground-oriented Army and Navy. Air Force doesn't have the depth in the secondary to hang with Washington State. The Falcons also lack the necessary strong pass rush. If you discount games against Colorado State and Hawaii, the Falcons only had 13 sacks. Washington State is better stopping the run than the pass. The Cougars have covered 15 of the last 22 times they've been underdogs.
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12-27-19 | North Carolina v. Temple +5 | 55-13 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm far from sold on North Carolina as a favorite here. The Tar Heels struggled to get to six wins to become bowl eligible. They fattened their stats by beating Mercer, 56-7, and defeated only one bowl team - and that was unimpressive Miami. If you discount the Mercer matchup, nine of North Carolina's 11 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Temple checks a lot of boxes for being a feisty bowl 'dog. The Owls should win the battle of the trenches. They have a strong pass rush and North Carolina has a leaky offensive line that permitted more than three sacks per game. Temple went 7-1 when sacking the quarterback at least three times with the lone loss coming to Cincinnati, 15-13, on the road. Both teams have good passing attacks. But Temple has the eighth-most efficient pass defense in the country. The Owls have experience with high-powered passing attacks having played Central Florida and SMU. The Owls certainly have backdoor capabilities if needed with QB Anthony Russo and WR's Jadan Blue and Branden Mack.
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 51 m | Show |
Pittsburgh isn't fancy. The Panthers are meat and potatoes. But they should destroy Eastern Michigan being a Power Five team dropping way down in class to play a Mid-American Conference team in the Quick Lane Bowl. The bar is not set high here for the Panthers. Eastern Michigan can't stop the run and is going to have problems keeping the Pitt defense off quarterback Mike Glass III. The Panthers are 5-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards. The Eagles have yielded at least 230 yards on the ground in four of their last five games. Led by Jaylen Twyman, who has 10 1/2 sacks, the Panthers have recorded 49 sacks and 98 tackles for losses. So Pittsburgh should control the trenches. The key is motivation. Will the Panthers get up for this opponent? They certainly should. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi is 0-3 in bowls games at Pittsburgh. The Panthers were nipped, 14-13, by Stanford in their bowl game last year. The Panthers won't have a better chance than this to get Narduzzi his first bowl win.
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