12-30-23 |
Portland State -3.5 v. Idaho |
|
77-72 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 4 m |
Show
|
Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category.
The Vikings won't lack motivation either after losing in embarrassing fashion to Eastern Washington, 91-57, as 3-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The Vandals are a bit fat and happy after they halted a two-game losing streak with a 61-58 home win against Sacramento State as 3-point favorites. Idaho is averaging only 56.6 points in its last three games vs board teams.
|
12-30-23 |
Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 |
Top |
15-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 12 m |
Show
|
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season.
Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career.
Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions.
Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle.
|
12-29-23 |
Arizona v. California +14 |
|
100-81 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener.
The Golden Bears are going to slow down the pace under first-year coach Mark Madsen. This is a plus in getting this many points. So is the Golden Bears getting Devin Askew back from injury. He averaged 15.5 points last season. Cal has three other good players in Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq and Jalen Cone. Those three are averaging a combined 52 points a game.
|
12-29-23 |
Raptors +8 v. Celtics |
|
118-120 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
Well the Celtics didn't lose to the Pistons last night. But they sure got a scare trailing by 21 points. Boston won, but the game went into overtime and the Celtics had to dig deep and exert tremendous effort.
That could cost them against a rested, revenge-seeking Raptors squad.
The Raptors are off perhaps their best game of the season. They buried the Wizards on the road, 132-102, this past Wednesday. Before that, Toronto had last played this past Saturday. So the Raptors are rested and ready. They also have double revenge for 117-94 and 108-105 losses to Boston.
The Celtics may not be playing with a full deck. Jayson Tatum is questionable with a sore ankle after playing 43 minutes last night. Jaylen Brown didn't play Thursday night. He's questionable. Tatum wasn't the only player who logged huge minutes Thursday. Jrue Holiday played 44 minutes. Al Horford and Derrick White each went 37 minutes and fragile Kristaps Porzingis logged nearly 36 minutes.
Toronto has a number of good, but underrated players in Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr.
|
12-29-23 |
Memphis +11 v. Iowa State |
Top |
36-26 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 15 m |
Show
|
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis. The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.
|
12-28-23 |
Prairie View A&M v. Texas-San Antonio -2.5 |
|
89-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games.
UTSA nearly upset Oregon State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog two games ago. The Roadrunners suffered a one-point, last-second defeat. Now they're home and dropping well down in class.
Prairie View A&M is one of the worst shooting teams in the country with a field goal percentage of 39.5 percent. The Panthers are bad defensively, too, giving up 76.9 points per game.
UTSA averages nearly 77 points a game and has Christian Tucker, who leads the American Athletic Conference in assists and averages 13 points.
|
12-28-23 |
Pistons +17 v. Celtics |
|
122-128 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
I understand the Pistons are all-time bad with 27 straight losses. But they are in a great situational spot and the point spread is through the roof. The Celtics concluded a four-game West Coast trip that began nine days ago and finished on Christmas day with a highly-satisfying national TV win against the Lakers, Boston's third consecutive victory.
The Celtics returned home two days ago to celebrate the holidays. They are fat and happy. Now they have to get reinvigorated to play the worst team in the league while also knowing they host the Raptors on Friday. That's a more challenging game. So I'm not expecting anywhere near an "A" game from the Celtics, who could be using their bench players more than usual in this matchup.
The Pistons have been semi-competitive in their last four games playing the Nets twice, Jazz and Hawks. Their average margin of defeat in these games is 7.7 points.
|
12-28-23 |
NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State |
Top |
19-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 57 m |
Show
|
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here.
The Wolfpack won and covered their last five games. They won four of those games as underdogs beating Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Kansas State, on the flip side, lost three times as a favorite falling to Missouri, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The Wildcats are 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.
I'm not a huge fan of North Carolina State QB Brennan Armstrong. But he's an experienced, dual threat who played well against North Carolina in the Wolfpack's last game passing for 334 yards and three touchdowns helping North Carolina State pile up 504 yards in a 39-20 victory.
Now the Wolfpack drop down from facing Drake Maye, maybe the best quarterback in college, to drawing freshman Avery Johnson. He's replacing the Wildcats' starting QB Will Howard, who was one of around 15 Kansas State players leaving. The Wildcats also lost All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott and star safety Kobe Savage. They also won't have offensive coordinator and play-caller Collin Klein. He left for Texas A&M to be the Aggies' offensive coordinator after coaching at Kansas State for seven years.
Only 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina State on run defense. The Wolfpack also ranked third in the country in takeaways with 17.
|
12-26-23 |
Magic -7.5 v. Wizards |
|
127-119 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved. Washington remains a bottom-feeder. The Magic are 2-0 vs Washington this season with an average victory margin of 12 points. Both games were in Orlando. But this isn't a good home spot for the Wizards.
Washington hasn't played a home game in 11 days. The Wizards recently returned from a four-game West Coast trip. Washington is 3-18 in its last 21 games and 2-9 in its past 11 games with one of those wins being by one point against the 7-21 Trail Blazers.
Orlando just halted a four-game losing streak with an impressive road victory against the Pacers this past Saturday. The Magic's four losses were to the Bucks, Heat and Celtics twice. So this is a tremendous drop in class.
The Magic have a height advantage and give up 16.6 fewer points per game than the Wizards, who are the worst defensive team in the league. The Magic also can be trusted to give a full effort. That's not always a given in today's NBA.
|
12-26-23 |
Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit.
Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion.
Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots.
So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten.
Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season?
I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS.
The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10.
Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10.
The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting.
Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded.
|
12-25-23 |
Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
33-19 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 45 m |
Show
|
Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.
So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.
This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.
My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.
Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.
Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.
|
12-23-23 |
Duke v. Troy -7 |
|
17-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
62 h 31 m |
Show
|
These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25.
Troy opened 1-2 and then won 10 in a row, including defeating Appalachian State, 49-23, in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
This is the first time a Sun Belt team is facing a foe from a Power 5 Conference in a bowl game. Troy has more than sufficient motivation. Not so for Duke. The Trojans also will have strong in-state crowd support with this game in Birmingham, Ala.
I had great respect for Duke coach Mike Elko. But he left for Texas A&M. The Blue Devils not only won't have Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame, but won't have star defensive linemen Aeneas Peebles and RJ Oben. They each entered the transfer portal.
Troy averaged 36.5 points in its last six games. The Trojans are also strong defensively ranking sixth in sacks and 15th in total defense. Duke's offense was well below average without Leonard. The Blue Devils ended up ranking 96th in total yards.
|
12-22-23 |
Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 |
|
17-30 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game. Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs. Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end.
|
12-22-23 |
Siena v. Brown -12 |
|
67-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home.
Siena is terrible. The Saints also happen to be 2-9 ATS. They are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing by an average of 25.5 points in their past four games. Siena just lost, 95-74, to Cornell as a 12 1/2-point home 'dog. This is significant. Because we have a similar point spread here with the Saints being on the road against Brown, another Ivy League school.
Brown was right behind Cornell as the fourth-best team in the Ivy League preseason poll. The Bears may have the best player in the Ivy League, Kino Lilly. The guard averages nearly 19 points. He's supported by an experienced and deep frontcourt.
I have Brown winning this game by 16-to-18 points.
|
12-21-23 |
Saints v. Rams -4 |
Top |
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 10 m |
Show
|
I've been looking to fade the Saints and this is the right spot. Both teams are 7-7, but the Rams are much the superior team. LA doesn't hold a huge home field advantage compared to other team's. However, the visiting team playing on Thursday is at a big disadvantage. So I believe this point spread is well short.
The Saints have beaten the Giants and Panthers at home during the last two weeks. Typical because New Orleans has played the easiest schedule. The Rams have drawn one of the more difficult schedules going against the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who they lost in overtime on the road two weeks ago.
Since Matthew Stafford returned from his finger injury, the Rams have gone 4-1 SU and ATS. Stafford has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last four games. Kyren Williams has emerged as one of the top running backs in the league averaging 124.3 rushing yards the last four games. Cooper Kupp has come alive, too, catching 16 passes for 226 yards during the last two weeks.
The Rams are averaging 33 points during the last four weeks. The Saints' defense is down from past seasons and their offense is mediocre at best.
|
12-20-23 |
Hawks v. Rockets -3 |
Top |
134-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home.
The Rockets are the far superior defensive team, ranking in the top-three in a number of major categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
The Hawks give up an average of 15 more points per game than Houston.
Atlanta has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games, losing those games by an average of 11 points. The Hawks also are banged-up with Jalen Johnson out and Bogdan Bogdanovic questionable with an ankle injury.
|
12-20-23 |
Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 |
|
108-124 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
Chicago is one of the hottest point spread teams covering eight of its last nine games. The Bulls have been achieving this going against strong competition, too. They've played the 76ers, Heat twice, Nuggets and Bucks during their last five games.
The Lakers, by contrast, are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since capturing the NBA's in-season tournament. The Lakers' lone victory during this span was by three points against the 4-22 Spurs.
One of the keys to the Bulls' surge is the return of underrated, ace defensive guard Alex Caruso.
There's the chance the Lakers could be without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both are questionable due to injuries. I still like the Bulls if those two play, but it would be a nice bonus if they didn't.
|
12-20-23 |
Arkansas State v. Belmont -4 |
|
70-74 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
The last time Arkansas State played on the road was a week ago. The Red Wolves upset Louisville. Impressive yes, but that was only their first road win in six tries. I don't see Arkansas State duplicating that success against Belmont, which is 4-0 at home.
Arkansas State is 4-7. Belmont is 8-4. The Red Hawks are turnover-prone, while the Bruins are extremely efficient in their shooting. They rank 22nd in field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage.
|
12-18-23 |
Nets -3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
108-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS.
Brooklyn is superior to Utah in all facets. The Nets are looking to conclude their five-game West Coast trip with a victory after consecutive losses to the Warriors and Nuggets. No shame in losing to those two opponents on the road. There would be shame, though, if they lost to the Jazz.
The Jazz are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Two of Utah's past three victories have occurred against the Trail Blazers, one in overtime. Portland is 6-19.
Utah is down some of its firepower with Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George and John Collins all sidelined. Clarkson and George are out while Collins is questionable due to illness.
|
12-17-23 |
Commanders +7 v. Rams |
|
20-28 |
Loss |
-120 |
16 h 55 m |
Show
|
There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role.
The Rams left nothing on the field in taking a tough road overtime loss to the Ravens last Sunday. It was an extremely physical game. The Rams looked like the superior team. But now the Rams are in the favorite's role against a rested Washington team that finally had its bye week. The Commanders desperately needed to rest and regroup having lost four in a row. It's one of many unfair things about the NFL that some teams had to wait until Week 14 to get their bye.
The Commanders are horrible on defense especially in pass coverage. However, they have skill position talent and quarterback Sam Howell is resilient and resourceful. He can keep the Commanders in this contest against a below-average Los Angeles defense that has just 11 takeaways, third-lowest in the league.
The Rams host the Saints this coming Thursday in what shapes up to be a tougher game and more meaningful in their playoff chase. So this matchup looms as a letdown spot.
|
12-17-23 |
Bears v. Browns -3 |
|
17-20 |
Push |
0 |
123 h 40 m |
Show
|
I'm selling high on the Bears, who have won three of their last four games but haven't faced an elite defense like this on the road all season.
Chicago is in a fat-and-happy mood having won two straight NFC North Division games upsetting the Vikings on the road and Lions at home this past Sunday.
Cleveland gives up the fewest yards in the NFL. The Browns also are a far stronger defensive team at home. Toss out the Ravens game and the Browns have held their other six home opponents to an average of 10 points a game.
Joe Flacco has solidified the Browns' quarterback spot with his veteran presence and threat of a deep pass. He's 38, but his arm is still there.
|
12-17-23 |
Chiefs -8 v. Patriots |
Top |
27-17 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 1 m |
Show
|
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do.
The Chiefs are still mad and fired-up about the way they lost to the Bills last week. They are going to be up for this game. Kansas City has too much offense for New England.
The Patriots and Bailey Zappe didn't suddenly get good by virtue of their 21-18 victory against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh is terrible going 1-4 in its last five games averaging 13.4 points during this span.
New England's defense is sound, but it's going to break under the weight of the Chiefs' well-designed attack and the ineptitude of the Patriot offense. The Patriots had scored a combined 13 points during their previous three games before beating the Steelers. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 13 points a game. Zappe is not a starting-caliber quarterback and the Patriots remain without their one decent skill position player, injured Rhamondre Stevenson.
This also was the week where news broke about this possibly being Bill Belichick's last season in New England. Belichick hasn't had the locker room all season. So this distracting news is going to be more of a negative than a motivational factor.
|
12-16-23 |
California v. Texas Tech -3 |
|
14-34 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 26 m |
Show
|
Now that Tahj Brooks is set to play, I like Texas Tech to beat California in the Independence Bowl. The Red Raiders are better than Cal on both sides of the ball and Brooks is the best player on the field.
Brooks rushed for 1,443 yards, fourth-best in the nation. California finished the regular season ranked 113th in scoring defense and 109th in total defense. The Golden Bears didn't face that many outstanding runners in the Pac-12 because the conference was such a great passing league.
Texas Tech had an up-and-down season, but is anxious to prove itself again after getting blasted, 57-7, on the road by then seventh-ranked Texas in its final regular season game. The Red Raiders had beaten TCU, then 16th-ranked Kansas and Central Florida during a 17-day span before falling to the Longhorns.
The Red Raiders also had held eight of their last nine foes to 28 or fewer points before meeting Texas.
|
12-16-23 |
Broncos v. Lions -4 |
|
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Lions' offensive line is back healthy, Jared Goff is at his best in a dome setting and the Broncos have been thriving because of takeaways. I see the Lions playing a clean game here. That would be bad news for Denver. The Lions have far more weapons than the Broncos. Detroit also has played three NFC North Division foes in its last four games. Those teams know the Lions. The Broncos don't. Detroit is 3-0 versus AFC West Division teams this season defeating the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers. This is Denver's first dome game of the season. It's not a good setting for the Broncos. The Lions may not be a serious Super Bowl threat, but they are better than they've shown since Thanksgiving.
|
12-16-23 |
UNLV v. St. Mary's -5.5 |
|
67-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
UNLV is in action for the first time since upsetting No. 8 ranked Creighton this past Wednesday. It was the Rebels' highest-ranked win since 2020. I'm looking for a Rebel letdown against this elite defensive foe in this neutral site tournament matchup in Phoenix.
Saint Mary's had a tough November, but has looked much better this month. The Gaels give up the eighth-fewest points in the country. They just defeated 13th-ranked Colorado State, 64-61, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Rams averaged 83.3 points. So the Gaels held them to 22 points below their season average.
Saint Mary's has held four of its last five foes to 63 or fewer points. The Rebels can't come close to matching that quality of defense. UNLV is ranked 101st in the KenPom rankings. Saint Mary's is rated 62nd.
The gap is large enough and the situation ripe enough to lay this number with the Gaels.
|
12-16-23 |
New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State |
|
10-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
49 h 38 m |
Show
|
These two teams have gone in opposite directions. New Mexico State is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. Fresno State fell apart after a promising 8-1 start, losing and failing to cover its final three regular-season games in bad form to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were favored against the Lobos and Aztecs.
New Mexico State is excited to play in this bowl game, which is in its home state. The Lobos should have a strong home crowd. Fresno State can't help but be disappointed to land a minor bowl bid for a game in Albuquerque, N.M.
The Lobos hold a strong coaching edge, too, with Jerry Kill. He's done a fantastic job turning New Mexico State into a good team. The Lobos won six times straight-up in an underdog role. Fresno State is being coached by Jeff Skipper, who's filling in for Jeff Tedford as Tedford is stepping away due to health concerns.
|
12-15-23 |
New Mexico v. New Mexico State +15 |
|
73-72 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
These in-state rivals just played 13 days ago in The Pit at New Mexico. It was no contest. New Mexico buried the Aggies, 106-62. The Lobos made 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range for 56 percent. New Mexico State missed 15 of its 18 3-point shots for 17 percent.
I don't expect that kind of shooting discrepancy, nor do I believe the Lobos will blow out the Aggies again especially with this rematch being in Las Cruces.
That blowout in the first game was unusual for this Rio Grande Rivalry. New Mexico State is 6-4 during the past 10 games against New Mexico. The Aggies hadn't lost by double-digits during this span until that defeat.
So I'm to ride with the Aggies in this rapid revenge spot.
|
12-15-23 |
Pistons +16 v. 76ers |
|
92-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
Can the Pistons avoid setting a team record for most consecutive losses in a season by upsetting the 76ers on the road tonight? Probably not. But Detroit can stay within this large point spread given the circumstances.
This is one of the highest spreads of the season. It's easily the most points the 76ers have laid all season.
Philadelphia just beat the Pistons in Detroit, 129-111, two days ago. That was Detroit's 21st loss in a row. The Pistons were booed off the court. Less pressure now for the Pistons being the road team and with nothing to lose since they are expected to get buried.
The 76ers might be able to name their score, but this isn't a kill spot for them. The 76ers can't help but feel overconfident. This marks Philadelphia's third game in five days. The 76ers play again on Saturday, going to Charlotte to meet the Hornets. The 76ers host the Bulls on Monday. So there is no reason for the 76ers to go all out here. Reduced minutes are likely for the 76ers' starters, especially fragile Joel Embiid.
Three things hurt the Pistons in their Wednesday loss to the 76ers: Embiid, lack of rebounding and 10 of 33 (30.3 percent) shooting from 3-point range. Embiid figures to play fewer than 30 minutes unless it's a close game. Maybe the 76ers will even give him a rest day. Who knows, it's today's NBA where superstars unexpectedly are ruled out right before post. The Pistons are a better rebounding team than they showed in the last game and their season 3-point shooting percentage is 33.8 percent, bad but better than 30.3 percent.
Before Wednesday's game, the Pistons and 76ers met on Nov. 10 in Detroit. The 76ers won, 114-106, for just an 8-point victory.
|
12-14-23 |
Wolves +2 v. Mavs |
|
119-101 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
Kudos to the Mavericks for nipping the Lakers, 127-125, at home on Tuesday. That was Dallas' fourth consecutive victory. But before getting on the Mavericks' bandwagon take a look at who their other three victories came against during this win streak - Utah, Portland and Memphis. Those three teams are a combined 20-49.
Minnesota is tied with Boston for the best record in the NBA at 17-5. The Timberwolves just had their six-game win streak snapped by the Pelicans, 121-107, at New Orleans three days ago.
The Timberwolves are the better team and I want them off a loss with extra preparation time. It's a bonus if the Timberwolves get back Anthony Edwards, who is questionable with a hip pointer. Minnesota does have back Jaden McDaniels, an underrated rotation player. The Mavericks remain without Kyrie Irving.
|
12-14-23 |
Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
21-63 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes. The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival.
|
12-13-23 |
Grizzlies v. Rockets -5.5 |
|
104-117 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
Since losing and failing to cover in their first three games, the Rockets have gone 14-2-1 (88 percent) ATS. Yet the marketplace still hasn't fully comprehended how improved the Rockets are defensively.
Memphis has drawn early money. It's a mistake.
The Grizzlies are 6-16. After a stretch of three wins in four games, the Grizzlies have lost and failed to cover in their past two games. They still have too many missing players to begin to turn the corner.
Houston has won 10 in a row at home. The Rockets give up the fewest points per game and rank second defensively in points per 100 possessions and defensive field goal percentage.
This line is shorter than it should be.
|
12-13-23 |
Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic |
Top |
60-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 42 m |
Show
|
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.
But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.
I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.
The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.
|
12-12-23 |
Cavs +11 v. Celtics |
|
113-120 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
Here is another example of Boston being overpriced. The Cavaliers are being disrespected because they lost to the Magic last night. No shame in that. Orlando is greatly improved. The Cavaliers happen to be 6-1 following a loss.
This is just the fifth time Cleveland is getting more than four points. The Cavaliers are 4-0 both straight-up and of course against the spread in those instances.
The Celtics haven't beat the Cavaliers by more than 10 points during the past two seasons spanning seven games.
|
12-12-23 |
Lakers v. Mavs +2 |
Top |
125-127 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Mavericks beat the Lakers, 104-101, in Los Angeles on Nov. 22. The circumstances are ripe for the Mavericks to do it again.
This is the Lakers' first game since capturing the NBA's first in-season tournament. They accomplished that by defeating the Pacers this past Saturday night in Las Vegas.
The Lakers haven't done nearly as well in non-tournament games and this is a letdown spot for them. LA is 5-7 in non-tournament games.
Dallas won and covered its third straight game beating the Grizzlies, 120-113, on the road last night. The Mavericks were idle the previous two days, however. So there should not be a fatigue factor.
|
12-11-23 |
Pacers v. Pistons +7 |
|
131-123 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 51 m |
Show
|
Talk about your dead spots. This sure is one for the Pacers.
Indiana has been one of the top stories of the NBA this season reaching the finals of the inaugural in-season tournament. The Pacers got there by beating a number of elite teams, including the 76ers, Celtics and Bucks. The Pacers were the talk of the tournament before losing in the championship game to the Lakers in Las Vegas this past Saturday. Indiana players were rewarded $200,000 each for making it to the title game.
Now comes the letdown.
The Pacers had to fly to Detroit for today's game against the Pistons, a team that has lost 19 in a row. How excited and motivated can the Pacers be for this matchup? Not very.
Detroit, though, won't lack incentive. The Pistons are off a blowout road loss to the Magic this past Friday. They desperately want to end their hellish losing streak. The Magic are the sixth-best defensive team in the NBA. The Pacers are the second-worst defensive team in the league.
Only once have the Pistons failed to reach triple digits. The Pistons should score plenty of points here, maybe even enough to pull the outright upset against a foe whose players just got done participating in the biggest game of their pro careers.
|
12-11-23 |
Heat -3.5 v. Hornets |
|
116-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 38 m |
Show
|
These two teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 14. The Heat were 6 1/2-point road favorites and won, 111-105.
Now the Heat are much smaller favorites. I don't get it. But I am going to take advantage of it and lay the lower number.
Charlotte is 7-13. The Hornets have a losing home record. Miami has a winning road mark.
The Hornets shot a season-best 55.7 percent from the floor to beat the Raptors, 119-116, at home this past Friday in their previous game.
The Heat defeated the Raptors, 112-103, in Toronto this past Wednesday. That was two games ago. Miami lost, 111-99, at home to the Cavaliers in its past game three days ago. No shame in that. The Cavaliers are coming on winning nine of their last 12 games.
I like getting Heat coach Erik Spoelstra with three days to prepare coming off a blowout home loss. The Heat have a top-nine defense. I don't see the Hornets having another hot-shooting game like they did against the Raptors against a motivated, superior opponent.
|
12-10-23 |
Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys |
|
13-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
70 h 15 m |
Show
|
Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers.
I think of the Cowboys as a bully. Now they get their rematch with the Eagles. You know what you're getting with the Eagles - an elite, resilient team that is well-coached. I can't say that about the Cowboys.
I wonder if the Cowboys' preparation wasn't thrown off by Mike McCarthy undergoing surgery for an acute appendicitis on Wednesday?
The Eagles have fortified themselves after getting blasted by the 49ers at home this past Sunday. Dallas Goedert, a top-five tight end, is expected to play after missing the last three games. Goedert opens the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts and makes things easier for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
The Eagles also upgraded their defense by signing three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard.
|
12-10-23 |
Jaguars v. Browns -3 |
Top |
27-31 |
Win
|
100 |
64 h 20 m |
Show
|
This game sets up very badly for the Jaguars. Not only is warm-weather Jacksonville traveling into cold and bad weather conditions on a short week, but doing it without their first and second string offensive left tackles and most consistent wide receiver, Christian Kirk. The Jaguars are facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has outscored opponents, 113-61, at home in going 5-1. If you discount a 28-3 loss to the Ravens, the Browns are giving up an average of 6.6 points in their five other home contests. Joe Flacco is a huge upgrade on P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
|
12-10-23 |
Texans v. Jets +3.5 |
|
6-30 |
Win
|
100 |
64 h 58 m |
Show
|
Houston has been a major surprise this season. So has C.J. Stroud, who looks like a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. But this is a clear buy low/sell high situation to take the Jets and go against the Texans.
The warm-weather, roof-enclosed Texans are heading into cold and bad weather to face a disappointed Jets team that seems ready to take their season-long frustrations and jealousy out on a beatable opponent such as this.
I actually believe Zach Wilson will provide a spark to a Jets offense that encountered one of the worst two-game quarterback stretches of the season with Tim Boyle. I expect a fresh Wilson to be improved after his two-game benching. He has the best running back, Breece Hall, and top wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, on his side in this matchup. The Texans rank 26th in pass defense.
Stroud will be without explosive Tank Dell, the Texans' touchdown leader and second-leading receiver. The Jets have the third-best pass defense in the NFL. They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer during their last 30 games.
|
12-10-23 |
Boston University v. Wagner -3.5 |
|
73-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 55 m |
Show
|
Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points.
Wagner is 2-0 at home. The Seahawks have a top-40 defense, have played a tougher schedule and are in good current form winning three of their last four, including the past two.
So I find Wagner worth backing in this spot in this price range.
|
12-09-23 |
Illinois v. Tennessee -6.5 |
|
79-86 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue.
Illinois lost by seven points at home to Marquette. Wisconsin beat Marquette by nine points just two games ago. Tennessee defeated Wisconsin by 10 points on the road.
A key for Tennessee is getting inside production from big men Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka, which they've started to get.
|
12-08-23 |
Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 |
Top |
136-138 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season.
The Thunder have defeated the Warriors in two of those three meetings. They are in much better current form and hosting Golden State. I expect them to win by a solid margin.
Oklahoma City is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Thunder won't lack motivation following a 110-101 road loss to the Rockets this past Wednesday.
Golden State snuck past Portland, 110-106, as a 12 1/2-point home favorite this past Wednesday. The Warriors have lost 10 of their past 15 games even with that victory against the 6-14 Trail Blazers.
The Warriors rank 19th defensively. The Thunder are averaging 128 points in regulation against Golden State.
|
12-07-23 |
Eastern Kentucky +9.5 v. NC-Greensboro |
|
85-87 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 8 m |
Show
|
Eastern Kentucky beat UNC Greensboro, 68-64, at home last season. The Colonels are off to a slow start this season at 3-3 while Greensboro is 6-1. But I'm going to buy low on Eastern Kentucky in the belief this line is inflated too much. Eastern Kentucky isn't nearly double-digits worse than the Spartans, whose defense can be dented.
|
12-06-23 |
Nets +4 v. Hawks |
Top |
114-113 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk.
The spot also sets up well for the Nets, who are in better form than Atlanta.
Brooklyn is 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets last played on Saturday. They should be rested and ready for this short revenge game. The Hawks edged the Nets, 147-145, in overtime when they hosted them on Nov. 22.
This is the Hawk' first game since returning from a five-game road trip. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine games.
|
12-05-23 |
Cleveland State v. St. Mary's -14.5 |
Top |
57-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 36 m |
Show
|
Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.
The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.
Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.
|
12-05-23 |
Suns +2 v. Lakers |
Top |
103-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8.
The Lakers are the home team in this quarterfinal Western Conference matchup of the NBA's in-season tournament. LA is 2-0 vs Phoenix this season. The Lakers beat the Suns, 122-119, in the latest meeting Nov. 10.
So why do I like the underdog Suns?
I find Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be the deadliest scoring duo in the NBA. The pair are averaging a combined 59 points per game. Booker missed the two earlier games against the Lakers. Yet even without Booker, the Suns nearly beat the Lakers in their previous meeting building a seven-point fourth quarter lead.
Now Booker finally gets to play against LA. He's a difference maker. Since losing to the Lakers, the Suns have gone 8-2. Phoenix is the better team with those two in the lineup. They'll prove it here.
|
12-04-23 |
Blues v. Golden Knights -1.5 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
The buy sign is back on the Golden Knights. Las Vegas is back on track posting consecutive 4-1 victories against the Canucks this past Thursday and Capitals two days ago.
The Golden Knights rank second in the NHL on defense. They've given up two or fewer goals in five of their past six games.
St. Louis is in action for the ninth time in 17 days. This is the fifth straight different venue for the Blues. They are 5-11 in their last 16 road games and have lost to Las Vegas 12 of the past 17 times.
The Golden Knights have won 69 percent of the time during their last 52 home games.
|
12-04-23 |
Pelicans +4.5 v. Kings |
Top |
127-117 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 6 m |
Show
|
This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas.
There's more pressure on the home Kings. They haven't fared well in the role of favorite going 4-7 ATS this season, including losing five times straight-up as chalk.
The Pelicans, conversely, have thrived as underdogs covering the last six times in that position winning five of those games straight-up.
The teams have met twice already this season. Both games were in New Orleans. The Pelicans won each time by 36 and five points, respectively.
The Kings had problems defending against Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Those two stars are reinforced by CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III both healthy after being out. So the Pelicans will have all four of their leading scorers. Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Murphy average a combined 86 points a game.
|
12-03-23 |
49ers -3 v. Eagles |
Top |
42-19 |
Win
|
100 |
63 h 12 m |
Show
|
The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.
I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.
Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.
San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.
The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.
|
12-03-23 |
Browns +4 v. Rams |
|
19-36 |
Loss |
-120 |
63 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense.
Cleveland is the better team. But because of its quarterback situation with Joe Flacco starting we have an inflated line on the Rams.
The line is shaded to the Rams, too, because of Cleveland injuries. However, I expect both Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper to both play. Cooper actually is excited about Flacco starting because of Flacco's ability to throw deep.
If you discount the Rams' overtime victory against the Colts, their only wins have been against the Cardinals and Seahawks. LA has lost both to the Bengals and Steelers. The Browns defeated the Bengals and split with the Steelers.
The Rams are a finesse team. The Browns are extremely physical. It's a bad matchup for the Rams and because of that this game is priced incorrectly.
|
12-03-23 |
Creighton -3.5 v. Nebraska |
|
89-60 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 50 m |
Show
|
I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team.
The Bluejays are a top-40 scoring and defensive team. They rank 18th in 3-point field goal accuracy. The Bluejays also are a much better rebounding team than Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers have been favored in each of their previous seven games. Their schedule has been so weak they've been favored by at least 14 1/2 points in five of their seven games. Nebraska still doesn't have its full complement of rotation players either.
|
12-02-23 |
Loyola Marymount v. Nevada -8.5 |
|
59-73 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup.
Nevada is good. Loyola Marymount is an average West Coast Conference team. The Lions are 5-3, but have played very weak competition. Their victories have been against Westcliff, Jackson State, FIU, UTEP and Central Arkansas. The Lions' losses have occurred to Yale, Stephen F. Austin and Oakland.
It's a step up for the Lions to play on the road against Nevada. A key is Nevada doesn't turn the ball over, ranking fifth in the nation in turnover margin. Loyola Marymount is 216th in that important category.
|
12-02-23 |
Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 |
Top |
26-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
75 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines.
Iowa's offense has gotten better, but obviously this handicap is all about the Hawkeyes' outstanding defense and Michigan being in a letdown spot.
So I'll take this many points given these factors.
The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding opponents to 12.2 points a game. Only Penn State has scored more than 16 points against Iowa this season.
Michigan isn't going for style points in this matchup. The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented. They'll be content to stay on the ground - like they did against Penn State and Ohio State - and grind out a victory while the clock keeps moving. This is tremendously conducive when taking an underdog getting this many points.
|
12-01-23 |
Wizards +11 v. Magic |
|
125-130 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
Sometimes to beat the NBA you have to go ugly. That's the case here in backing Washington.
The Wizards may be the worst defensive team in the NBA and they are coming off a terrible performance. That came against Orlando two days ago in a 139-120 road loss to the Magic. It was the Magic's eighth straight victory. Now there's a quick rematch.
The Wizards have short revenge. The Magic have their own revenge game up next when they meet the Nets on Saturday. Brooklyn defeated Orlando by 20 points Nov. 14. Washington is looking for redemption. Orlando is looking ahead.
Even given Washington's defensive shortcomings, the Magic don't figure to achieve season highs in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and assists like they did against the Wizards in Wednesday's lopsided victory. The Magic shot 60.7 percent from the floor and sank 17 of 27 3-pointers in that game.
Not only should the Wizards mentally be in an all-in type of mood, but physically they shouldn't hold anything back because they don't play again for five days. The Wizards have their pluses namely offense. They rank in the top-10 in points, field goal percentage and free throw shooting.
|
12-01-23 |
Rider v. Siena +3.5 |
|
65-67 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 37 m |
Show
|
The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season.
Both teams, though, have been slow out of the gate. Each is 1-5.
I'm not sold on Rider laying road points here. The Broncos' only victory came at home against non-Division I Immaculata. All five of their defeats occurred on the road. They are 1-4 ATS in their road matchups.
The Saints are 25-9 in their home MAAC openers.
|
11-30-23 |
Seahawks v. Cowboys -9 |
Top |
35-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.
The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.
Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.
I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
|
11-30-23 |
UL - Lafayette +4 v. Samford |
|
65-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog.
Louisiana Lafayette has won three in a row. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy, sinking nearly 41 percent of their 3-point attempts.
Samford has played one of the easiest schedules in the land. The Bulldogs haven't defeated an opponent ranked higher than 285th in the KenPom rankings. Yet they are just 1-5 ATS in their lined games.
Samford's biggest weakness is defending against the 3-pointer where it ranks 267th.
|
11-30-23 |
Pistons +14 v. Knicks |
|
112-118 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
I get that the Pistons are total dog crap, losers of an amazing 15 straight games. About the only good thing I can say about them is they have some promising young players and usually play with energy.
But this is a spot where the Pistons can hang in and cover the number.
The Knicks are fat and happy. They just destroyed the Hornets, 115-91, at home on Tuesday. It's New York's fourth home game in six days. Up next for the Knicks is a road game tomorrow night against the Raptors, who just upset the Suns last night.
So I question the Knicks' motivational and intensity level for this game. It's the most points the Knicks are laying all season. They have a bottom-five offense. That's not ideal when laying a large number.
It's also the most points the Pistons are receiving all season. The only other time the Pistons were a double-digit underdog they nearly upset the Bucks, losing by two points as a 12-point road 'dog.
|
11-29-23 |
Davidson +3 v. Charlotte |
Top |
85-81 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.
Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.
Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.
This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.
Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.
Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.
|
11-29-23 |
Suns -3 v. Raptors |
|
105-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
Even if Kevin Durant misses this game, and he's questionable with a foot injury, I still like Phoenix to cover this short number.
The Suns have won seven in a row, covering in their last four games. This 7-0 streak has coincided with the return of Devin Booker from a calf injury that caused him to miss five games.
The Suns will be well rested. They last played on Sunday.
Toronto, on the other hand, carries a high fatigue rating. The Raptors lost on the road by eight points to the Nets last night. Toronto had four players log at least 32 minutes in that loss. This marks the Raptors' sixth game in nine days.
|
11-27-23 |
North Dakota State +7.5 v. San Jose State |
Top |
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
North Dakota State is a strong 3-point shooting team ranking 64th. The Bisons are in a good situational spot here.
They draw San Jose State in the Spartans' first game since returning from the Virgin Islands. San Jose State went 2-1 in the Paradise Jam Tournament there. The Spartans were favored in all three of their games there against weak competition. That has made their record and statistics look better than they really are.
I don't think the Spartans are very good. They only scored 42 points in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago before they went on their Virgin Islands trip. I think these teams are closer than this point spread indicates.
|
11-26-23 |
Bellarmine +9 v. West Virginia |
|
58-62 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players.
Bellarmine is improving. The Knights covered against Kansas State, losing 83-75, on the road and blew out Bowling Green on the road. They are tested and dangerous to West Virginia in this spot.
|
11-25-23 |
West Virginia -10.5 v. Baylor |
|
34-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
44 h 57 m |
Show
|
West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12.
The 3-8 Bears conclude their season with this matchup. It sure looks like they've already packed it in with four straight losses following a 42-17 road loss to TCU last Saturday. Baylor has one of the worst point spread marks in the country at 2-8-1 ATS.
Baylor was supposed to be solid on defense under Dave Aranda. That hasn't been the case at all. The Bears rank 117th in scoring defense and 109th in total defense.
Sparked by dual threat quarterback Garrett Greene, the Mountaineers rank fifth in the nation in rushing. They are averaging 38.6 points in their five games if you discount a 59-20 loss to Oklahoma.
Baylor doesn't have the players, nor the desire, to keep up. The Bears are likely to start backup QB Sawyer Robertson after Blake Shapen suffered chest and head injuries against TCU. Robertson has made three starts this season. The Bears have averaged 8.6 points during those starts.
|
11-25-23 |
Heat +4.5 v. Nets |
|
97-112 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
I like getting points with the better defensive team that has motivation and is in good current form.
So I'm on the Heat here against the Nets.
Miami is 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Heat's two losses during this 11-game stretch occurred to the Bulls by five points and to the Knicks by two points yesterday when Miami blew a 21-point third quarter lead.
The Heat rank fifth in the NBA defensively holding foes to 107.6 points a game. Brooklyn ranks 21st defensively giving up an average of 116.2 points.
The Nets have been vulnerable lately in giving up 3-point baskets, allowing an average of 16.2 in their past four games. The Heat rank sixth in the league in 3-point shooting.
|
11-25-23 |
Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 9 m |
Show
|
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week.
What happened last week was the Aggies upsetting Auburn, 31-10, as 25-point road 'dogs. Never in 27 previous attempts had New Mexico State defeated an SEC opponent.
Jacksonville State has won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 8-3 and rank third in the nation in rushing entering this week.
|
11-24-23 |
Suns -6.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
110-89 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 10 m |
Show
|
I find this number short given that both teams were idle on Thanksgiving and the Suns shouldn't lack a killer instinct.
Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league at 3-11. The Suns are 9-6 and dangerous with a healthy Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix has won five in a row, including its past four road games.
The Grizzlies are 0-6 at home. The Suns won't be taking them lightly following a 123-115 win against the Warriors this past Wednesday when Phoenix nearly blew a 23-point lead. This is what Booker said after the game: "We have to do better. Simple as that. We have to take care of the ball, no turnovers, get stops. When that game's 10, 15 points in the fourth, don't give any team hope, don't give any team confidence.''
The Grizzlies are off a deflating 20-point road loss against the Rockets also this past Wednesday. Memphis ranks last in field goal percentage and in 3-point defense. The Suns rank No. 2 in 3-point shooting percentage.
|
11-24-23 |
Air Force v. Boise State -6 |
Top |
19-27 |
Win
|
100 |
75 h 54 m |
Show
|
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time.
The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos.
Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead.
The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites.
|
11-24-23 |
BYU v. Arizona State +10.5 |
|
77-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 6 m |
Show
|
No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament.
BYU, on the other hand, is riding high at 5-0. One of the Cougars' wins was against then 17th-ranked San Diego State, 74-65, at home.
No doubt BYU will be ASU's most difficult opponent. But the Sun Devils have been a good 'dog team, have had substantial prep time and are drawing good line value.
|
11-23-23 |
Commanders +13.5 v. Cowboys |
|
10-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 12 m |
Show
|
This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play.
It's just plain too many points in this long-time bitter division rivalry. If the Commanders lose big here on national TV, Ron Rivera could be fired on Black Friday. You have to believe the Commanders are primed to provide their best effort.
But will it be good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Dallas?
Yes. Washington looked horrible in losing to the Giants last week. Let's not forget, though, how tough the Commanders played the Eagles in both of their meetings this season, losing the first one in overtime and the second, 38-31, after leading in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys have played nine of their 11 games against below .500 opponents. Unlike some of the Cowboys' victims such as the Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Jets, the Commanders have back-door capabilities with a top-10 passing attack spearheaded by mobile and resilient Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in passing yards.
|
11-23-23 |
Packers v. Lions -7.5 |
Top |
29-22 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.
After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.
As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.
The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.
Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.
It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.
|
11-22-23 |
New Mexico -7.5 v. Rice |
Top |
90-56 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.
The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.
New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.
|
11-21-23 |
Jazz +7.5 v. Lakers |
|
99-131 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
Too many points for the Lakers to lay. Only twice in 14 games have the Lakers beaten a team by more than six points. Those two teams were the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, who are a combined 6-20.
The Jazz covered all four of their games versus the Lakers last season.
Utah is getting better as its backcourt gets in sync. The Jazz are 2-2 in their last four games with their only defeats during this span coming by 3 points each to the Suns, one of which went into overtime.
|
11-21-23 |
Blazers +13 v. Suns |
Top |
107-120 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA.
I get that.
But this spot is good for the Trail Blazers taking this many points.
Phoenix just won a pair of 3-point road games at Utah - always a difficult place to win at - with the last one coming in overtime this past Sunday. That gives the Suns three straight victories. They've been gone from Phoenix for nearly a week. Now they return home perhaps distracted by the upcoming holiday and knowing they have a marquee home game on deck against Golden State on Wednesday. I don't see the Suns fired-up for this matchup.
The most motivated player on the court could be Portland center Deandre Ayton, who played for the Suns for five seasons before being traded to the Trail Blazers in late September. Ayton could look for his shots more against his former team. That would be a good thing.
The Trail Blazers certainly will want to give a better accounting of themselves after an embarrassing, 134-91, home loss to the Thunder in their last game two nights ago. If you discount that game, the Trail Blazers would be 5-4 ATS in their last nine games.
The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They haven't won by more than 13 points in eight of their past 10 games with one of those victories being by 14 points against the Pistons.
|
11-21-23 |
Pacers +4 v. Hawks |
|
157-152 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
This has the makings of a crazy, high-scoring game where the last team with the ball wins. That's one reason why I like the underdog Pacers. Another is Indiana is off an embarrassing 12-point home loss to Orlando this past Sunday in a game where the final doesn't fully reflect how bad the Magic stomped the Pacers.
Rick Carlisle was far from pleased with the defensive effort of his Pacers. Indiana has won and covered the past three times following a defeat.
|
11-20-23 |
Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 |
Top |
21-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
56 h 52 m |
Show
|
The Chiefs beat the Eagles at a neutral site in the Super Bowl and they'll beat them at home. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last dozen home games.
Kansas City is the healthier team and has the better defense.
It's remarkable how good the Chiefs' defense has gotten. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 15.9 points per game, ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed and is fifth in pass defense.
The Eagles' defense can't match that given their vulnerable secondary. Philadelphia entered this week allowing 19 TD passes, third-worst in the league, while ranking 28th in pass defense.
Jalen Hurts might be the second-best QB in football. But Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Hurts also will be missing his third-best receiver, injured tight end Dallas Goedert.
Both teams were idle last week. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 21-3 in that role.
|
11-20-23 |
Oregon -20 v. Florida A&M |
|
67-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
|
Oregon has some injuries, but I have to go with my power ratings and I have the Ducks 24-point favorites here so I'm laying this number. These same two teams played in Oregon last season and the Ducks buried Florida A&M, 80-45. Oregon is 3-0. The Ducks rolled past Tennessee State, 92-67, at home as 18 1/2-point favorites in their last game this past Friday. Florida A&M can't compete at this level. The Rattlers are 0-3. Their three losses all were by blowouts - 105-54 to Creighton, 81-54 to Nebraska and 89-68 to Florida. The Rattlers are deficient in rebounding and commit way too many turnovers to stay in this game against this caliber of opponent.
|
11-19-23 |
Winnipeg v. Montreal +8 |
|
24-28 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 10 m |
Show
|
Winnipeg was upset by Toronto in last year's Grey Cup. I can see the Blue Bombers getting upset again by a hot Montreal team. I'll certainly take more than a touchdown to find out. All the pressure is on the Blue Bombers.
No defense has played better down the stretch than Montreal's. The Alouettes have won seven in a row. They've given up only 14.1 points a game during this seven-game stretch. Montreal's defense really got good with mid-season acquisitions of middle linebacker Darnell Sankey and defensive lineman Shawn Lemon.
Some of the Blue Bombers' offensive edge is lessened by their best wide receiver, Dalton Schoen, dealing with an ankle injury.
Winnipeg beat Montreal in both regular season games, 17-3 and 47-17. But that was back in July and August. The Alouettes are a different team now particularly on defense. So I'll take the better defense and the points.
|
11-19-23 |
Chargers -3 v. Packers |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
124 h 42 m |
Show
|
As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers.
Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home.
Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday.
Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.
The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.
|
11-19-23 |
Raiders v. Dolphins -11.5 |
|
13-20 |
Loss |
-120 |
123 h 24 m |
Show
|
Afraid to lay big chalk in the NFL? Don't be. Double-digit favorites are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS. Look for the Dolphins to continue that run of success. Miami comes off its bye with De'Von Achane eligible to play again and Jaylen Waddle at 100 percent. The Raiders' soft zone coverage may work against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, but Tua Tagovailoa is going to pick their vulnerable secondary apart. The Dolphins lead the NFL in most points and yards by wide margins. They've lit up far better defenses than the Raiders. Not only does offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel have extra time to prepare more innovations, but the Raiders are traveling cross-country to play at an early start time for them. This is with a rookie QB and rookie head coach. Miami has beaten all the mediocre-to-bad teams on its schedule. The Dolphins' losses have come when stepping up - Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. This is a monster step down after their last game against the Chiefs. The Dolphins, by the way, had their best defensive half of the season in that game holding Kansas City scoreless in the second half. The Dolphins have been dominant at home, too, winning 16 of the past 18 times. The Raiders are 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 during their past four road games. They have road losses of 28 points to the Bills, 18 points to the Bears and 12 points to the Lions.
|
11-19-23 |
Cardinals +6 v. Texans |
|
16-21 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks.
Arizona welcomed Kyler Murray back this past Sunday against the Falcons. Murray showed he hasn't lost his magical ability to escape pressure and be a big-time quarterback. The Falcons found that out first-hand losing to the Cardinals.
The offensive season statistics of the Cardinals should be tossed out. Their offense is much more dangerous now with Murray, who has all his weapons healthy with Marquise Brown, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and emerging tight end force Trey McBride. Murray can attack a banged-up Houston secondary that ranks 24th.
|
11-18-23 |
Portland v. Nevada -13.5 |
|
83-108 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland.
The Pilots do two things: Turn the ball over frequently and miss a lot of 3-point shots. Portland averages 18 turnovers a game and ranks 267th in 3-point accuracy.
Nevada commits the 11th-fewest turnovers in the nation. The disciplined WolfPack should cover this number being home and matching up well to Portland.
|
11-18-23 |
Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 |
|
26-16 |
Loss |
-105 |
68 h 11 m |
Show
|
Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately.
During their last five games, the Longhorns lost to Oklahoma, rolled past BYU, only beat Houston by seven points as a 23 1/2-point favorite, edged Kansas State in overtime and nearly blew a 20-point halftime lead against TCU before holding on for a 29-26 victory last Saturday. The Longhorns have been outscored by 30 points in the fourth quarter during their last two games.
Quinn Ewers isn't an elite QB and the Longhorns lost their best running back, Jonathon Brooks, for the season against TCU when he suffered a knee injury.
Now the Longhorns have to go to Ames to take on spunky and well-coached Iowa State. The Cyclones are 4-1 in their last five games, losing only to Kansas during this stretch. Iowa State has a shot to play in the Big 12 title game if it can beat the Longhorns.
Texas hasn't won in Ames since 2017. The Longhorns nipped the Cyclones, 24-21, at home last season failing to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites. Iowa State had beaten Texas the three previous seasons.
|
11-18-23 |
Kentucky v. South Carolina +1.5 |
|
14-17 |
Win
|
100 |
68 h 39 m |
Show
|
The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results.
South Carolina opened 2-6 because it had the toughest schedule up to that point. But now the Gamecocks sit 4-6 after double-digit victories versus Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. If the Gamecocks win this game and their finale against Clemson, they'll qualify for a bowl game. So they have motivation.
Kentucky already is bowl eligible thanks to an easy early-season schedule where it went 5-0 being favored by 13 or more points in four of those games. Since then, though, the Wildcats have gone 1-4 SU and ATS.
This spot isn't good either for the Wildcats. They just got beat up by Alabama and have in-state rival Louisville up next.
South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler has played much better at home with 15 TD passes compared to only two TD throws on the road.
|
11-17-23 |
Pistons +9 v. Cavs |
Top |
100-108 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday.
But as the Cavaliers return from a long four-game road trip that concluded in Portland, it might be difficult for Cleveland to have its full focus and motivation against the Pistons because Detroit has lost nine in a row.
The youthful Pistons have played tough teams close recently, though. Detroit's last four results have been a six-point loss to the Hawks, an 11-point defeat to the Bulls, an eight-point loss to the 76ers and a two-point defeat to the Bucks. The Bucks, 76ers and Hawks are all better than Cleveland and they beat the Pistons by fewer points than this point spread.
Detroit is 3-1 ATS when catching more than eight points this season.
|
11-16-23 |
UMass Lowell +7.5 v. Arizona State |
|
69-71 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
Arizona State has the bigger name. But Massachusetts Lowell is very underrated. It wouldn't shock me if the 3-0 River Hawks upset the Sun Devils straight-up. Lowell did just that against Georgia Tech beating the Yellow Jackets, 74-71, on the road this past Tuesday. The River Hawks won a school-record 26 games last season. Lowell also has an impressive 33-point blowout victory against Dartmouth this season.
|
11-14-23 |
Blazers +6.5 v. Jazz |
|
99-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
When it's bad on bad like this, take the points especially when it goes past the key basketball number of six.
Portland is 3-6. Utah is worse at 3-7.
This is the Jazz's first home game in 12 days. So their focus could be off. Only once have the Jazz beaten a team by more than six points. That was against the 2-8 Grizzlies.
The Trail Blazers have road victories against the Pistons and Raptors. They lost by three to the Kings and by six to the Lakers on their current road swing, covering both games. The Trail Blazers have covered five of their last six games.
Portland has won the past three meetings against the Jazz, including twice at Utah last season.
|
11-14-23 |
Texas State v. Oklahoma -15 |
Top |
54-93 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.
The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.
The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.
This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.
|
11-12-23 |
Nevada +5 v. Washington |
|
83-76 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
I regard these teams as even. So does the KenPom rankings, which list Nevada 69th and Washington 70th.
So I see value taking this many points. The Wolf Pack have the good guards needed to hit 3-pointers and get to the free throw line against the Huskies' 2-3 zone defense they constantly employ.
Nevada also has the size necessary to rebound with tall Washington.
The Huskies hosted Northern Kentucky in their last game. The Huskies failed to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites, winning by only eight. It was not an impressive win.
|
11-12-23 |
Jets +1 v. Raiders |
|
12-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
91 h 12 m |
Show
|
The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants.
Those results have made the Jets underpriced here and the Raiders overpriced.
Let's start with the Raiders. Their defense is bad even with Maxx Crosby. Rookie Aidan O'Connell isn't any better than Zach Wilson. Davante Adams is wasted in the Raiders' offense. Adams has caught five passes for 45 yards the last two weeks. He hasn't gone above 57 yards receiving in his last five games.
Canning McDaniels was the right thing to do for the Raiders. But interim coach Antonio Pierce isn't a head coach. The Raiders rode enthusiasm and a historically bad Giants offense to an easy victory last week. Pierce didn't really have to do anything. That rare emotion from the Raiders is not sustainable. Pierce is going to find himself way over his head similar to Jeff Saturday with the Colts last year.
The Jets' defense is at least two levels higher, if not three levels above the Raiders. The Jets like to believe they are serious playoff contenders owning victories against the Bills and Eagles. If they are, they can't afford to lose to this opponent.
It's the Jets who should be the more motivated team this week following a bad home loss on Monday night. Getting out of New York actually should work in their favor.
|
11-12-23 |
Commanders v. Seahawks -6 |
Top |
26-29 |
Loss |
-115 |
89 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.
Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.
Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.
Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.
Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.
Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.
|
11-12-23 |
49ers -3 v. Jaguars |
|
34-3 |
Win
|
100 |
85 h 50 m |
Show
|
After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers.
Each team is off their bye. The timing works out much better for San Francisco. I'm expecting Deebo Samuel and offensive left tackle Trent Williams to return to the 49ers' lineup following the extra time off. That will make Brock Purdy reach peak efficiency again.
Jacksonville entered its bye winning and covering five in a row. That momentum could get stalled.
The Jaguars have come up with 18 takeaways, an average of 2.2 per game. If the 49ers play a clean game, they should win being the superior team.
Trevor Lawrence remains inconsistent. He's going to encounter a strong 49ers defense that will be bolstered by the return to health of underrated linebacker Dre Greenlaw and the addition of defensive line stud Chase Young from the Commanders. Nick Bosa is way overdue for a big game, too. It could come here.
|
11-11-23 |
Flyers v. Kings -1.5 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Kings buried the Flyers, 5-0, on the road a week ago. This spot sets up for the Kings to win by multiple goals again.
LA has much to prove to home where it hasn't played well. The Penguins just beat the Kings two days ago in LA. The Kings have had a day to rest up and lick their wounds from that game, while the Flyers come in fat and happy after beating the Ducks last night.
The Flyers have major goalie issues with Carter Hart out. The Kings are expected to go back to Cam Talbot in net after Pheonix Copley played against the Penguins. Talbot is the superior goalie. Talbot is 3-0 with a GAA of 1.00 and save percentage of .966 this month. The Flyers have been held to two or fewer goals in four of their last six games.
The Kings don't play again until hosting the Panthers on Thursday. So expect an all-out effort from the Kings to achieve what has been elusive for them, a home victory. It should come here in a big way.
|
11-11-23 |
Texas -10.5 v. TCU |
Top |
29-26 |
Loss |
-120 |
43 h 11 m |
Show
|
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime.
The Longhorns keep all of their offensive edges, but should play a much cleaner game with starting QB Quinn Ewers looking good in practice this week and cleared to play. Ewers has accounted for 18 TD's with three interceptions. He should have success throwing against the Horned Frogs' 83rd ranked pass defense.
TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Horned Frogs were hammered by Kansas State, 41-3, two games ago. I don't see them doing much against a Longhorns' defense that holds foes to fewer than 18 points a game and ranks 33rd in fewest yards allowed.
The 4-5 Horned Frogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation.
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11-10-23 |
Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
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This is a kill spot for the defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights if there ever was one. Las Vegas has lost two in a row for the first time this season. The Golden Knights have been home since the early part of this week. They won't be taking the Sharks lightly after San Jose has won its last two games. The Golden Knights have no love lost either for the Sharks.
After opening with an 11-game winless streak, the Sharks have pulled major upsets beating the Flyers and Oilers at home. They nipped Edmonton, 3-2, last night. So the Sharks are traveling without rest while playing for the third time in four days.
The Sharks have lost by multiple goals in 10 of their 11 losses.
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11-10-23 |
Clippers +1.5 v. Mavs |
|
126-144 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
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The Clippers are putting a lot of emphasis on winning this finale of their four-game road trip after losing the first three games. LA's 3-point shooting is due to improve. The Clippers are just 19-of-68 (28 percent) from 3-point range in their past two games, losses to the Knicks and Nets.
Dallas has surrendered at least 118 points in three of its past four games. Luka Doncic is going to get his points, but the Clippers have the better team with more star power. The Mavericks could be minus rookie center Dereck Lively II. He missed Dallas' last game two days ago due to illness. The result was the Raptors beat the Mavericks, 127-116, as four-point road 'dogs.
"We missed him (Lively) a lot,'' Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said after the loss to Toronto. "There was no one in the paint and that just shows how important he is to our team.''
If Lively plays, you wonder how much stamina he'll have? Either way, I don't believe the Clippers should be an underdog despite their recent shooting struggles. They have too many star players and will have motivation.
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11-09-23 |
New Mexico v. St. Mary's -6 |
|
58-72 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
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I want Saint Mary's going for me in this spot. This is a monster revenge game for the Gaels. They've had this game circled ever since New Mexico upset them as a nine-point road underdog, 69-65, last season. That halted the Gaels' 23-game home win streak.
Credit to the Lobos for that great upset win, but I fear them a lot less when they are on the road.
New Mexico is an NIT team. Saint Mary's was a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and has many returning players.
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11-09-23 |
Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers |
Top |
124-126 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 44 m |
Show
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Both teams played and won Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo received some unexpected extra rest. Antetokounmpo logged only 22 minutes because he was tossed midway through the third quarter against the Pistons after making a slam dunk basket. Apparently the referees thought people were paying to watch them instead of Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks and Antetokounmpo should be extra fired-up because of that. The Bucks are 5-2. Indiana is 5-3. Milwaukee is the better team and has played the tougher schedule. The Pacers have only met one opponent that has a winning record.
The Pacers rank first in scoring, but are a bottom-five defensive team. They also carry a high fatigue ranking. This will be their fifth game in seven days.
The Bucks held Khris Middleton out of last night's game for knee injury management in the hopes he'll be ready for this more important game.
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11-08-23 |
Blazers +8.5 v. Kings |
|
118-121 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
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De'Aaron Fox is the most important player on Sacramento's roster. He's out with an ankle injury. Fox didn't play in the Kings' last three games. Sacramento went 0-3 in those games, including getting blown out twice by the lowly Rockets.
So the Kings certainly can't be trusted to lay this many points. The spot isn't even good for them. This is their first home game in a week having played their past three games away from home.
Portland has won and covered in its last two road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. The Trail Blazers are playing solid defense giving up an average of 101.5 points in regulation during their last four games.
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11-08-23 |
Akron v. Miami-OH -17.5 |
Top |
0-19 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 34 m |
Show
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Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo.
Akron is 2-7. The Zips' lone win in the MAC came last Wednesday in dramatic style. The Zips staged a highly unlikely rally by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-27 victory against rival Kent State in their annual Wagon Wheel game. Akron scored the winning TD with 26 seconds left.
The Zips treated that matchup like their Super Bowl since they won't be going to a bowl game. It was the first time Akron claimed the Wagon Wheel since 2018.
So not only is Miami of Ohio a much better team than Akron, but the Zips are in a monster letdown spot.
Akron had lost by 27 points to Bowling Green in its previous game. Miami of Ohio defeated Bowling Green, 27-0.
Miami of Ohio holds opponents to just 19 points a game. Akron allows more than 29 points per game and ranks in the bottom-10 defensively in points allowed, yards allowed and run defense.
The Redhawks lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season in their loss to Toledo. Miami of Ohio, though, wins in the trenches. The Redhawks beat Ohio, 30-16, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog in their first full game last week without Gabbert. New starting QB Aveon Smith was 7-of-11 passing for 103 yards with one TD and no interceptions in that game.
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11-07-23 |
North Carolina-Asheville +10.5 v. Michigan |
|
74-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
UNC Asheville isn't getting enough respect here. The Bulldogs won the Big South last season to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. They finished 27-7.
Michigan is in regroup mode after losing Hunter Dickinson, their top scorer and rebounder. He transferred to Kansas. The Wolverines also lost guards Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin, both of whom were selected in the NBA draft. Michigan also doesn't have Jace Howard, who is out with a stress fracture to his knee. Wolverines coach Juwan Howard underwent heart surgery in September so he's in recovery.
The timing is ripe for Asheville to spring a major upset.
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