Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Care to lay points with an 8-4 American Athletic Conference school against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, who owns victories this season against bowl teams Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami? I sure don't. That's one reason I'm taking the points with Duke against Temple in the Independence Bowl. Please note this game goes early Thursday. The Blue Devils are going for their third straight bowl win. They have a tremendous bowl and underdog coach in David Cutcliffe, whose teams have covered 60 percent of the time the past 80 times they have been underdogs. Cutcliffe's teams are 8-2 ATS, too, in bowl games. Temple, by contrast, has a messed-up coaching situation. Ed Foley will be coaching just his second game as Owls head coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech. The Owls' biggest wins were against Maryland, which finished with a losing record in the down Big Ten, and Houston. The Cougars just got blasted, 70-14, by Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. It's clear Duke has played a far tougher schedule. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones is a pro prospect. Wrong team favored in my view.
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
Minnesota ranks 74th in run defense. The Gophers give up 5.2 yards per run, second-worst among all bowl team. And these numbers include the Gophers having their best defensive player, senior linebacker Blake Cashman, who is sitting out this game in preparation for the NFL draft. Cashman was in on 104 tackles. If you can't stop the run, you can't beat Georgia Tech with its unique triple-option attack. The Yellow Jackets are the No. 1 rushing team in the country averaging 335 yards on the ground. Minnesota's defense isn't that good to begin with and now facing Georgia Tech and without Cashman it is in real trouble. The Yellow Jackets have an underrated defense ranking 45th in total yards. The Gophers were 89th in yards gained. The topper is the Yellow Jackets will be highly motivated to bury the Gophers as a sendoff to their coach, Paul Johnson. He is retiring after this game.
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12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
Strong at home, bad on the road particularly in Boston. That's the 76ers, who are 16-3 at home, but 6-9 on the road. Philadelphia has failed to cover during its last four visits to Boston, including getting buried, 105-87, by the Celtics in the season opener at TD Garden. That was Boston's 10th straight home win against Philadelphia. The Celtics have the deeper bench and are inside the mentally fragile 76ers' heads having defeated them in 13 of the last 15 regular season meetings. It's not just the Celtics. The 76ers have been blown out on the road by other quality teams losing by 27 to the Spurs, by 11 and 17 to the Raptors and by 15 to the Bucks. They even were destroyed by the Nets, losing by 25. Boston is coming off an impressive 119-103 home win against Charlotte on Sunday, a much-needed win that snapped a three-game losing streak. The Celtics got two of their key injured big men back for that game, Al Horford and Marcus Morris. Look for the Celtics to build on that victory. Boston has a much tougher defense than the 76ers ranking fourth compared to Philadelphia's 23rd rating and far more depth.
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
If there is one game the Raiders should be up for it is this one - a Monday night home game in what could be their final game ever in Oakland. The Broncos are a dead team done in the past two weeks by losses to the 49ers and Browns. Vance Joseph is not expected to return as coach. One of Joseph's failing is Denver's poor road record during his two seasons - 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS - including a seven-point road loss to the Raiders last season. Denver failed to cover when it hosted the Raiders in Week 2, winning 20-19 as 5 1/2-point favorites. Derek Carr completed 29 of 32 passes in that game for 288 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos' secondary is down a key member with cornerback Chris Harris out. Carr rates a strong edge over journeyman Case Keenum.
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 87 h 29 m | Show |
Tampa Bay's defense has shown improvement, but not enough to overcome the Cowboys' ground attack and poor situational spot the Bucs find themselves in. The Buccaneers' defense was on the field for 74 plays comprising 37 minutes against the highly physical Ravens on the road last Sunday. This is their second road game in a row and 11th straight week of playing. I can envision the gassed Buccaneers losing the battle of the trenches to the Cowboys offensive line and superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in run defense. Jameis Winston doesn't often play well on the road. The Buccaneers are averaging only 16.6 points a game in their last three games. Their offense has declined as their defense has improved. The Cowboys have a top-five defense, which is made even better with the return of Sean Lee. The Cowboys are going to be highly motivated following a 23-0 shutout loss to the Colts on the road last Sunday. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at home this season. |
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12-21-18 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a tremendous kill spot for the Avalanche and I have no hesitation backing this view with a puck line play in order to greatly reduce the juice. Colorado is by far the superior team. The Avalanche are rested and draw the Blackhawks in a super letdown spot and with no rest carrying a huge fatigue rating. Chicago defeated the Predators, 2-1, at home Tuesday and then upset the Stars, 5-2, on Thursday in Dallas. This marks their third game in four days - all at different venues - and fourth game in six days. Making this worse for the Blackhawks is playing in Denver, which is high altitude. The Avalanche are 10-6 in their last 16 games. They are the No. 5 scoring team in the NHL with the league's third-best power play. The Blackhawks are in the bottom two both in allowing goals and in killing off power plays. The Blackhawks are without their top goalie, Corey Crawford. They either will have journeyman Cam Ward in net, or rookie Collin Delia.
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
Current form and superior defense are two keys in projecting bowl winners. So is pedigree. Marshall has all these factors going and the spread is low enough to back the Thundering Herd. Marshall has won and covered each of its last six bowl games under Doc Holliday. Holliday is a coach you can count on. South Florida is in terrible form. The Bulls were bogus when they opened 7-0. That was proven when they finished the regular-season with five straight losses, all by double-digits. The Thundering Herd own a huge defensive advantage. They rank 31st in the country in fewest points allowed at 22 per game. South Florida ranks 92nd in points given up at 31.5. That number shoots up to 39.6 if you count just the Bulls' last five games. |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season to say the least for the Panthers. That's what happens when you lose a lot of close games like Carolina has. Only twice all season have the 6-7 Panthers lost by more than a touchdown. This is the Panthers' Super Bowl. They draw the Saints playing in their third consecutive road game. New Orleans has averaged just 262 total yards of offense in its last three games, which would rank 31st in the league if computed for the entire season. Carolina's troubles have stemmed mainly when they are on the road. The Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 home games, including going 5-1 at home this season. |
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12-16-18 | Eagles v. Rams -9 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 129 h 1 m | Show |
Physically and mentally down, the Eagles aren't ready for the Rams. LA is in a kill mood after its worst offensive performance of the season this past Sunday night. That was in cold conditions on the road against a very strong Bears defense. The Rams have multiple weapons to take advantage of the Eagles' messy cornerback situation, which has numerous injuries and is composed of second and third-stringers. Jared Goff is back in his element playing in California. Unlike last season when the Eagles outscored the Rams, 43-35, Philadelphia doesn't have the offensive capability to hang anymore with LA. The Eagles have no ground game to fall back on and Golden Tate has been a major disappointment since joining the Eagles from the Lions failing to elevate Philly's passing attack. The Eagles defense was on the field for 93 plays in their overtime loss against the Cowboys last week. They are worn down. They couldn't ask for a more dangerous offense to face on the road than the Rams. Mentally, the Eagles aren't there either with their playoff hopes realistically dashed following the loss to Dallas. |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -7 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 121 h 40 m | Show |
The Dolphins are not nearly as good as their 7-6 record. They don't have an elite player on their roster. Their best player might be corernback Xavien Howard and he's hurt missing last week's game. The Vikings have a very strong home field. They have covered 69 percent of their home games under Mike Zimmer. The Dolphins are 1-10 SU, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. They have lost four away games this season by double-digits. Minnesota's defense is far superior. The Vikings also don't have to deal with a high octane offense. The Dolphins' lone outside threat is Kenyan Drake and he is under utilized. Ryan Tannehill is a limited quarterback and playing on a sore ankle. Look for the fired-up Vikings to expose the Dolphins for the fraud team that they are.
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show |
Credit to Herm Edwards for doing an excellent job with Arizona State. But the Sun Devils are not in Fresno State's class. Fresno State is holding foes to 13.7 points a game this season. That's the second-best scoring defense in the nation. Arizona State surrendered 12 more points per game than the Bulldogs. The Sun Devils will be without their best player with wide receiver N'Keal Harry deciding to skip the game in order to prepare for the NFL draft where he is expected to go in the first round. I'm not that high on ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins especially since he won't have Harry anymore. An insight into this matchup could come with common opponents. Both teams played San Diego State at home. Fresno State beat the Aztecs, 23-14, and had a 108-yard advantage, where as the Sun Devils lost 28-21 to the Aztecs and were outgained, 440-377. Each team also played UCLA. Fresno State whipped the Bruins, 38-14, on the road while outgaining them by 150 yards. ASU nipped the Bruins, 31-28, while playing at home and only outgained them by 41 yards.
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12-14-18 | Hawks +13 v. Celtics | Top | 108-129 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
The Celtics have won seven in a row, including getting past the Wizards on the road Wednesday despite missing Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and Jaylon Brown. Now the Celtics draw the lowly Hawks at home with a road game looming against the Pistons on Saturday. Not only is the backdoor open for the Hawks, but so is the possibility they can hang in and make this a game. Horford remains out. Hayward and Brown are questionable. Both are ill. The Celtics have no need to rush either back given their depth and not taking the Hawks as a serious threat. Atlanta has covered its last two games. The Hawks upset the Nuggets at home and lost by seven points as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Mavericks. The Hawks are averaging 112.7 points in their last seven games if you toss out a 94-point performance they had against the Hornets. The 112.7-point average would rank 10th best if computed during the entire season. The Celtics have not been good in this type of role failing to cover 12 of the past 15 times when laying more than eight points.
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12-10-18 | Heat v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The Heat have opened their current six-game road trip with victories against the Suns and Clippers. I don't expect them to make it three wins in a row. The Lakers have been playing better going 5-1 in their last six games with all of their victories coming by eight or more points. The Lakers rolled past the Heat, 113-97, at Miami on Nov. 18. They hold a huge talent edge. Miami could be without two of its key players. Josh Richardson is dealing with a shoulder injury and Hassan Whitesite has been out for personal reasons.
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12-09-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Bills | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
When it's dreck versus dreck give me the garbage team getting the points especially with division revenge. That would be the Jets here. Both teams are going with rookie quarterback and rebuilding for next season. But the Jets are going to be super high for this game after the Bills embarrassed them on Nov. 11 dealing them one of the ugliest defeats in franchise history, 41-10. That loss really put Todd Bowles on the hot seat. Bowles is popular with the Jets players. I believe the Jets will put forth one of their strongest - if not the strongest - effort of the season in this matchup. Talent-wise, the Bills are not any better than the Jets.
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12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | Top | 112-104 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
The timing of this matchup should work in the Knicks' favor. New York was buried by Boston, 128-100, on the road Thursday. Knicks coach David Fizdale ripped his team following that embarrassment. New York has been playing better lately, though, going 4-4 while covering six of its last nine games. This is a rivalry matchup, but the Nets are in letdown mode after stunning the Raptors, 106-105, in overtime at home Friday night. That win halted an eight-game Brooklyn losing streak. The Nets have really missed Caris LeVert, who was their leading scorer. Until upsetting Toronto, the Nets were 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in their past eight games.
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
Bad quarterback. Decimated offensive line. Shot morale with no playoff chance after entering the season holding Super Bowl aspirations. Say hello to the 2018 Jacksonville Jaguars, the biggest underachievers in the AFC. The Jaguars are further hurt by traveling on a short week this being the Thursday game. Game manager Cody Kessler is 1-8 as an NFL starter. He's isn't going to produce many points with a beat-up offensive line and sub-par receivers. Tennessee's defense has played just below Jacksonville's ranking sixth in fewest points allowed and ninth in yards given up. So while a slight edge to Jacksonville on defense, the Titans have a much superior offense. Marcus Mariota has been playing well. He plays better against the Jaguars than any other team with a seven-game career mark of 107-for172 (62.2 percent), 1,317 yards passing and an eight-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has rushed for 290 yards and scored two touchdowns on the ground. The Titans have defeated the Jaguars in their last three meetings holding the Jaguars to an average of 10.6 points a game.
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12-02-18 | Browns +7 v. Texans | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -140 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
Free of Hue Jackson, rookies Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb are playing their best ball. Mayfield is 36-for-46 passing for 474 yards with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ration in his last two games while Chubb has gained 337 yards from scrimmage and scored four TD's in the last two weeks. Cleveland is a dangerous foe for the fat and happy Texans, winners of eight in a row. Houston is on a short week after dispatching Tennessee at home and two games up on the Colts in the AFC South Division. The Texans aren't nearly as good as their record and are ripe for an upset. They have built their win streak versus easy competition and by winning close games. Houston won four games by a combined 10 points, two of them coming in overtime. They have lost to the Giants and only beaten the Bills by a touchdown. Bill O'Brien plays not to lose. Because of that, the Texans are very bad in a chalk role. Going back to 2016, the Texans are 3-8-1 ATS when laying a field goal or more. Houston also has failed to cover in its last seven December games. |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
Northern Illinois has lost two in a row, but the Huskies are laying in the weeds. They've been pointing to this matchup, the MAC title game. Note the game is at a neutral site, Ford Field in Detroit. Buffalo has the better record and the flashier quarterback in Tyree Jackson. Northern Illinois, though, has the best defense in the MAC. Jackson is turnover prone and hasn't faced a defense this good. Jackson has a stud wideout, Anthony Johnson. But look for Northern Illinois to cause Jackson problems with its pass rush and linebackers. The situation favors Northern Illinois, too. Buffalo played last week. Northern Illinois has been idle since Nov. 20. This also is the Bulls' third straight road appearance and fourth different venue in their last four games. The Huskies nipped the Bulls, 14-13, at Buffalo last season. The combination of the superior defense and running of Tre Harbison - who has rushed for 950 yards while averaging 5.4 yards a carry - should carry the Huskies to a cover if not an outright victory.
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11-29-18 | Clippers v. Kings +3 | Top | 133-121 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
The Clippers are out of the gates fast going 13-6. Sacramento has been a surprise, too, going 10-10 while covering 60 percent of their games. LA is just a .500 team on the road. The two teams are similar in that neither has a superstar, but each has scoring depth. The Kings have six players averaging 11 or more points a game. Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox have become of the better backcourt tandems in the league. The Kings entered the middle part of this week ranked seventh in scoring and first in 3-point shooting percentage. There are unique circumstances in this matchup. The spot is ripe for the home underdog Kings. The Clippers played Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-99, at home. The Kings have been idle since Sunday. This is Sacramento's lone scheduled national TV matchup with the game on TNT. The Kings are not slated to play on ESPN nor ABC this season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from the Kings with a rare chance to be on the national stage and show off their vast improvement.
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11-27-18 | Southern Illinois -1.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
Colorado State went 11-21 last season. The Rams are 4-2 this season, but have played a weak schedule. Southern Illinois is far more battled tested having taken on Kentucky, UMass, Buffalo and Tulsa, who the Salukis beat by 10 points at neutral site Las Vegas during their last game. Southern Illinois is the deeper team, has played the tougher schedule, is more experienced and is better defensively. The Salukis give up eight fewer points per game than the Rams. These advantages are displayed in the latest Kenpom ratings, which has Southern Illinois ranked 114th and Colorado State rated 200th.
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11-26-18 | Magic v. Warriors -8 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
It's an added bonus if the Warriors get back Draymond Green back for this game. But if not, the Warriors have the firepower with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, along with a good situational spot, to roll past Orlando. The Magic are coming off a highly satisfying and intense upset of the Lakers beating them 108-104 on Sunday. In their previous road game, the Magic lost to Denver by 25 points. The Warriors should be focused. Not only did they see what happened to the Lakers, but they go on a five-game road trip starting Thursday following this game. The Magic are playing for third time in four days and second in two days. Golden State has dominated the series winning the past 10 meetings against the Magic with eight of the victories occurring by eight or more points.
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11-25-18 | Packers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 36 m | Show |
The Packers didn't make the playoffs last season. They aren't going to make the postseason either this season. The reasons are many: A talent shortage. Stale coaching by Mike McCarthy. Key injuries. Lack of a pass rush. Vulnerable secondary. Aaron Rodgers performing at a good rather than great level. The Vikings aren't at the elite level of the Rams and Saints. But they are coming on and clearly are a tier higher than the Packers. Green Bay is 0-5 on the road this season. The Lions, Seahawks and Redskins all whipped the Packers when they hosted them. The Packers lost to those teams by an average of 8.3 points a game. None of those three teams are as good as Minnesota. The Packers are 1-6-2 ATS the past nine times they have been underdogs. Their history under McCarthy is very bad as underdogs. They don't win games they are not expected to win. This is the third year the Vikings are playing their home games at U.S. Bank Stadium. It is a very strong home field. The Packers are 0-2 there having lost 23-10 last season and 17-14 in 2016 when Sam Bradford was Minnesota's quarterback. The Vikings were missing their two best offensive linemen, Pat Elfein and Brian O'Neill, when they met the Packers in Green Bay in Week 2. The game finished in a 29-29 tie. Vikings kicker Daniel Carlson missed three field goals, including two in overtime. Elfein and O'Neill are back for the Vikings. Carlson has been replaced by steady Dan Bailey, who has made 14 of 17 field goals for Minnesota with one of those misses caused by a bad snap. The Vikings have come on since that early season game. Their defense was elite last season and it has yielded just 263.6 yards during the past five games. That would rank No. 1 in the NFL by 37 yards if computed during the entire season. Just two games ago, the Vikings amassed 10 sacks in a 24-9 win against the Lions. Maybe because his knee still isn't 100 percent. Maybe it's because of his barely concealed ill feelings toward McCarthy. Whatever it is, Rodgers isn't having is typical season. There has been tremendous quarterback play from a number of quarterbacks - Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Dree Brees, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. Rodgers hasn't performed at that level. Rodgers is going to face tremendous inside pressure from the Vikings' defensive line and he doesn't have quality guards to protect him. He's also down several of his receivers, including Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison and possibly Jimmy Graham, who has a broken thumb. The Packers are thin defensively especially at safety. Green Bay also is without its best defensive player, tackle Mike Daniels. Kirk Cousins has the weapons to take advantage with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Look for Dalvin Cook to have a big game, too, now that he's healthy. Green Bay's run defense really goes downhill minus Daniels.
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 20 m | Show |
At 4-6, the Falcons are on life support. They are in must-win mode while the Saints are on cruise control. Normally the home team has a huge edge on Thursday games. But the Falcons are familiar with their division rival and this isn't a long trip. The Saints nipped the Falcons, 43-37, in overtime back in Week 3. I see the same back-and-forth type offensive fireworks in the rematch. Drew Brees is having another brilliant season, but so is Matt Ryan, who threw for five touchdowns in the first meeting. As geat as the Saints have been this season, they are 0-4 ATS the past two yers when laying nine or more points.
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
I don't understand this line. Miami should have opened a much higher home favorite. True the Heat aren't playing well. They are a disappointing 6-10 and have lost five of their last six. But the Nets are 7-10 and have lost four of their last five. Brooklyn just recently lost its best player, Caris LeVert. The teams met just six days ago in Brooklyn. The Heat were a two-point road favorite. Now they open only a three-point home favorite. The Heat won that game,. 120-107. Miami is a frustrated team capable of much better. The Heat have the two best players on the court, Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside. The Nets aren't capable of better. They are not a playoff caliber team. They aren't playing defense either giving up 120 or more points in three of their last four games. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -125 | 131 h 40 m | Show |
Coming off their bye, the Vikings have gotten healthier on defense and their defense is coming on ranking in the top-five during their past four games. Minnesota is close to full strength now and has Dalvin Cook back to provide a home run threat on offense, which it was lacking before. Cook's dangerous presence can mitigate the Bears' pass rush because of his value as a receiving back. Kirk Cousins rates a strong edge on Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears also are unstable at kicker with Cody Parkey missing four kicks last Sunday, including two extra points. The Vikings took care of their kicking issues by signing highly accurate and reliable Dan Bailey. |
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11-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State +7 | Top | 6-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
Kansas State is a must-win mode if it wants to make it nine straight years of going to a bowl game. The Wildcats have a strong history of covering as a 'dog under Bill Snyder and they surely won't lack motivation here with speculation this could be Snyder's final home game. He could be retiring after 27 years of coaching. So this is going to be an emotional setting at Bill Snyder Family Memorial Stadium. Kansas State has lost three games by a combined nine points. The Wildcats have the superior rushing attack - led by Alex Barnes one the best running backs in the country - and better defense. Texas Tech has been regressing. The Red Raiders have lost three in a row. They are likely not to have injured quarterback Alan Bowman available. He's recovering from a lung injury. Kansas State has won the last three in the series, including winning 42-35 at Texas Tech last season.
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +8.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
SMU has come on be tied for first in the AAC West Conference. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks is having a nice season with 1,919 yards and 16 TD passes of which 10 have come during the past four games. The Mustangs have a deep crop of running backs, too. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and lacks the defense to cover this big of a road number. The Tigers' record has been fattened up by the weak foes they have played such as Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama, UConn, East Carolina and Tulsa.
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Back in Week 2, Ball State hung in against Notre Dame losing, 24-16. Since then, though, things have gone way downhill for the Cardinals. They are 2-6 since that close loss and out of conference and bowl contention. Their starting quarterback, Riley Neal, is out with a knee injury and their top running back, James Gilbert, has been demoted to second team after missing last week's game with a back injury. Ball State has gotten blasted in its last two games losing, 52-14 to Ohio and 45-13 to Toledo. The Cardinals have two games left and their coaching staff has made it known they are going to be looking at younger players. There are inexperienced players in the secondary and in the offensive line. Western Michigan needs this game to keep its MAC West Division title hopes alive and also secure a bowl bid. The Broncos buried the Cardinals, 55-3, last season. The Broncos are treating this as their most important game of the season.
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11-12-18 | Jazz -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The Jazz already have double revenge against the Grizzlies. They are 0-2 versus Memphis this season with both losses occurring in Salt Lake City. Utah was missing Donovan Mitchell in one those losses. Mitchell is healthy now and the Jazz are playing better. The Grizzlies are improved this season. But they are not in Utah's class. The Grizzlies have fed on a bunch of bad teams at home beating the Hawks, Suns and Wizards. Memphis is coming off a 112-106 home overtime victory against the 76ers. The Grizzlies caught the 76ers in the second of back-to-back games following Philadelphia's home overtime win against the Hornets. The 76ers ran out of gas in that game.
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11-10-18 | Nets v. Warriors -7 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Even without injured Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, Golden State is strong enough to dispatch the Nets by double-digits at home especially given the circumstances. The Warriors are far the superior team and probably have the best bench in the league. The Warriors are in bounce back mode after their eight-game win streak was snapped by the Bucks on Thursday in an embarrassing 23-point home loss. The Nets are off a dramatic 112-110 road win against the Nuggets last night, winning when Caris LeVert hit a shot with 0.3 seconds left. The Nets can be a pesky 'dog on the road - but not when a vastly better foe takes them serious. That will be the case here.
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 10 m | Show |
Stop Georgia Tech on the ground and you beat the Yellow Jackets. Miami has done that in each of the last three seasons beating Georgia Tech three times in a row. The Hurricanes have a tremendous trio of three-year starting linebackers in Zach McCloud, Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman. They've helped the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in tackles for losses, being No. 2 in total defense and 19th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 points per game. The last time Georgia Tech faced a defense this good was in Week 4 when it lost 49-21 to Clemson. No, Miami isn't nearly as good as Clemson. But the Hurricanes are good where it counts against this opponent, who they have owned the last three seasons. Georgia Tech has no choice but to run the ball. They are a one-dimensional option offense. Hurricanes coach Mark Richt knows Georgia Tech's offense well from his days coaching at Georgia. The key for Miami is getting good enough quarterback play. That should happen with the decision to go with N'Kosi Perry as the starter this week. He's more talented than Malik Rosier.
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Fresno State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That's helped make the Bulldogs a road favorite here. But that should come with a disclaimer: The Bulldogs haven't faced a decent quarterback or offense. Now they draw the Broncos and Brett Rypien, who is on the verge of becoming the Mountain West's all-time passing yardage leader. Boise State ranks 21st in points per game and 22nd in yards per game. Fresno State hasn't won during its last nine tries at Boise State. The teams last met at Boise State in last season's Mountain West title game. The Broncos were 10-point home favorites - a swing of nearly two touchdowns from the line on this game - and defeated the Bulldogs, 17-14. Fresno State is good. But so is Boise State. The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS at home. But they haven't been a home 'dog before. And they shouldn't be here.
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 57 m | Show |
The Steelers are playing their finest ball winning and covering their last four games. Carolina is at a severe disadvantage being the visitor for this Thursday game. The Panthers have a below average passing statistics. They are vulnerable to Ben Roethlisberger, who has a strong history of playing much better at home. James Connor has more than filled in well for holdout Le'Veon Bell providing the Steelers with a balanced attack. The Panthers lack the Steelers' strong downfield passing game. Pittsburgh ranks tied for third in the AFC in sacks. Cam Newton is not an accurate passer and will be under a heavy pass rush.
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11-07-18 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The last time the Nuggets blasted out of the blocks this well was 1976. They are 9-1. But this is a spot to step in against them. Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS at home. All of its home victories are by 12 or more points. The Grizzlies have covered in their last six home games going back to last season. FedEx Forum is a strong home-court for Memphis. The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode after losing the final two games of their road trip with the last occurring to the Warriors two days ago. Memphis is much improved from last season with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley healthy and having a deeper bench. Denver is in a letdown spot after a huge home victory against the Celtics on Monday. The Nuggets are not that strong away from Pepsi Center going 1-2 ATS during their past three away matchups. Denver also has bad recent track record versus Southwest Division foes going 0-6 ATS against them.
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11-06-18 | Nets v. Suns +1 | Top | 104-82 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Can the Suns win two in a row? Yes. Phoenix is a different team when Devin Booker is healthy like he is now. The Suns upset the Grizzlies at home this past Sunday. It was Booker's second game back after he missed three games with a hamstring injury. That win halted a seven-game Phoenix losing streak and has given the Suns confidence. Booker was the key. He is one of the best players in the league although he doesn't get a lot of publicity. Phoenix will have the two best players on the court in Booker and rookie Deandre Ayton when they host Brooklyn Tuesday. The Nets are 1-4 on the road. Their lone away win was against the Cavaliers, who have the worst record in the NBA at 1-9. The Nets last were on the road eight days ago when they were blasted by the Knicks, 115-96.
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11-03-18 | Houston -14 v. SMU | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
Houston wins because of its high-scoring offense. The Cougars have scored 40-plu points in eight straight games. They rank first in the country in total yards and No. 2 in scoring. Houston quarterback D'eriq King has had at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing TD in every game this year. The Cougars have an excellent track record on the road going 23-10-1 (70%) in their past 34 away matchups. SMU needs to play ball-control and have a balanced offense to hang with the Cougars. But the Mustangs don't have that. They are averaging 98.6 yards on the ground, which ranks 123rd. SMU is averaging fewer than 50 yards rushing in its last three games. The Mustangs are poorly-coached - 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games - and have given up eight-non defensvie touchdowns, including four pick-six interceptions off Ben Hicks.
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
Western Kentucky has frustrated Middle Tennessee State for three straight years, including defeating the Blue Raiders, 41-38, last season in triple overtime. Now the table is set for the Blue Raiders to get their revenge in a big way. The Hilltoppers are a dead team done in by the disastrous coaching of Mike Sanford. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. The Hilltoppers are not bowl eligible for the first time in eight years. Middle Tennessee State senior quarterback Brent Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders to a 16-7 record since 2016 in games he has been healthy in. Yet he's 0-3 career-wise versus Western Kentucky. Stockstill is one of the better quarterbacks in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders trail Florida International by just one game in the East Division of that conference. Their offense has a good balance to it with the emergence of running back Terelle West. Western Kentucky can't keep up averaging fewer than 20 points a game. The Hilltoppers give up nearly 30 points on defense. They've allowed 40, 37 and 38 points in their last three games. They can't match the Blue Raiders on either side of the ball. Middle Tennessee State has a good history in these type situations covering six of the last seven times at home versus foes with a losing road mark.
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
Jon Gruden is desperate for a victory and he has a chance to achieve that in this nationally televised Thursday night matchup. As bad as the Raiders have been, the 49ers have even a worse record. The 49ers also are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. The Raiders have a huge quarterback edge with Derek Carr. This edge would be even greater if C.J. Beathard is a scratch because of a wrist injury. That would make second-year undrafted free agent Nick Mullens the 49ers' starting quarterback. Carr is coming off a four touchdown performance against the Cowboys and has regained his confidence. Usually it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team in the Thursday matchup. But it's different here because Oakland and San Francisco are just a little more than 12 miles apart. So travel isn't an issue for the visiting Raiders. It's the 49ers who are hurt the most by the short week because of their long injury list.
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10-31-18 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I see the Pacers bouncing back from a disappointing home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Monday. The Trail Blazers are off to a fast start and they played well against Indiana. The Pacers are a much better team than the rebuilding Knicks, who are 2-5 with their victories coming against the lowly Hawks and Nets. The Pacers entered their matchup against the Trail Blazers having posted road victories against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Victor Oladipo, though, had an off-shooting night against the Trail Blazers after connecting on 17 of 27 shots from the floor against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Indiana has a strong record in bounce back situations like this going 16-5 ATS following a loss. New York is fat and happy after halting a five-game losing streak with a resounding revenge win against the Nets on Monday, 115-96.
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10-30-18 | Blazers v. Rockets -3 | Top | 104-85 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
The Rockets are off to a horrendous 1-4 start after winning an NBA-best 65 games last season. I understand the Rockets have yet to resemble anything they looked like last season and will be without injured James Harden. Still, I believe the Rockets are primed for a monster effort. They have been idle since Friday. Portland, on the other hand, played on Monday night and upset the Pacers in Indiana. This marks Portland's third game in four days. The Trail Blazers do not have great depth and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a victory. Houston has owned Portland in the past winning seven of the last eight meetings, including all four last season.
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10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Pacers are playing well having won their last two games - both on the road - in blowout fashion beating the Spurs, 116-96, this past Wednesday and Cavaliers, 119-107, on Saturday. Now the Pacers are home where they are 2-0 this season having destroyed the Grizzlies by 28 points and Nets by 20. Portland is better than those two teams. However, the Trail Blazers are just a borderline playoff team and they carry a fatigue rating playing their third road game in five days. Portland has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. They Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck when they play the Rockets in Houston. The time to play the Pacers is now as I anticipate the line will go up. There's also an outside chance Portland's star point guard Damian Lillard could be out as he's nursing a sore right elbow. |
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10-28-18 | 49ers +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
There are degrees of being pathetic. The Cardinals are more pathetic than the 49ers. At least San Francisco is well-coached, plays hard all the time and doesn't have nearly the dissension and lack of confidence Arizona has. This is a huge revenge game for the 49ers. They lost to the Cardinals just three weeks ago, 28-18. The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but cost themselves by committing five turnovers. C.J. Beathard is one of the better backup quarterbacks. I would take him operating behind Kyle Shanahan's sharp schemes and decent receivers, including emerging star tight end George Kittle, than rookie Josh Rosen, who has a horrible offensive line and declining skill position players. It's not a fluke the Cardianls are last in yards gained per game and last in run defense. They are the worst team in the NFC.
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
Neither the Eagles nor Jaguars have played up to expectations this season. Both are coming off surprising home losses. I trust the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles far more than the Jaguars to bounce back in this London game. Carson Wentz is rounding into shape nearing upper-tier status again. He has far better weapons with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz than the Jaguars have especially when they remain without Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville is playing its worst ball having lost three in a row. The Jaguars defense isn't as good as it was last season. They aren't getting takeaways to set up their offense. Jacksonville's offense is a total mess because it doesn't have a quality starting quarterback. The Jaguars have produced just 28 points during their last three games. Neither turnover-prone Blake Bortles, nor weak-armed, checkdown passer Cody Kessler is the answer at quarterback. The Eagles are the much more balanced team solid on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are held hostage by their horrendous quarterback play. They don't have a quarterback on their roster who can fix the problem.
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10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 1 m | Show |
Recall if you will last season after Auburn beat Georgia, 40-17. The Bulldogs came back from that beatdown to post four straight wins and covers to reach the national championship game. I see the Bulldogs bouncing back against Florida here. Georgia was idle last week after suffering its first loss of the season to LSU in its previous game. LSU kept Georgia in check that game. But the Bulldogs offense is too good to be held down a second consecutive game. Florida ranks 73rd in run defense. The Bulldogs have a stable of outstanding running backs headed by D'Andre Swift. Georgia can beat Florida on the ground, or through the air behind Jake Fromm if the Gators bring their safeties into the box. I don't see Florida's offense keeping up with a Bulldogs defense that gives up the 13th-fewest points per game at 16.3. The Bulldogs crushed the Gators, 42-7, last season.
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
There is plenty of value here with Boston College being this big of an underdog when it should actually be favored. The facts are these: The Eagles are 4-0 at home and 5-2 overall. Their two losses have been to North Carolina State and Purdue. No shame in that especially since Purdue just upset Ohio State. Boston College gets back star running back AJ Dillon from an ankle injury. Look for the Eagles' offensive line and ground game to control the line of scrimmage against the Hurricanes. This is the best running attack Miami has seen all season. The warm-weathered Hurricanes will be playing in low 40-degree weather. They are are 1-4 in their last five road games and going up against an emotionally-charged Boston College and atmosphere. The game is being called "Red Bandanna/Service Day Game" to honor Welles Crowther, who was a former BC lacrosse player who saved the lives of several people during the 9-11 attacks before perishing. Miami is going to have to contend with this road setting while still trying to get its quarterback situation settled. Malik Rosier is going to get the start after N'Kosi Perry's poor play in the Hurricanes' last game, a 16-13 road loss to Virginia. Rosier isn't a very good passer either. He's completing just 52 percent of his throws.
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10-22-18 | Magic +12 v. Celtics | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
The combination of Orlando being an improved up-and-coming team upgraded by a coaching change and the Celtics trying to figure out their right rotations puts me on the Magic. There's a buzz going on in New England right now. It's not about the Celtics at this early juncture of the season. It's about the Patriots and Red Sox being back in the World Series. It is just the fourth game of the season. Brad Stevens is a master coach. But he's trying to figure out all the pieces. Remember the Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward during the playoffs. The Celtics have not looked sharp in their previous two games losing on the road to the Raptors and nipping the Knicks, 103-101, as a 9 1/2-point road favorite this past Saturday. The Magic may have their best coach of the past six years with Steve Clifford. He inherits a roster with some young emerging talent with Aaron Gordon and reliable veterans Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic were without these players for much of last season because they often were hurt. Orlando has more inside depth this season with rookie Mo Bamba. Vucevic is coming off a monster game against the 76ers where he had 27 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. Orlando lost that game, 116-115, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Celtics' inside defense is likely to be missing big man Aaron Baynes, who has a hamstring injury. Orlando often is underrated on the road. The Magic are 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 away matchups for 68 percent.
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10-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Jets | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets. Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury. Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line. The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts. I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles. |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 34 m | Show |
Jacksonville still has a top-two caliber defense. The Jaguars still have their same defensive players. They just haven't been getting the huge number of takeaways and sacks they did last season. That should start to change with this matchup. DeShaun Watson isn't having the season he had last year before he got hurt. A big reason for that is he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Texans can't protect Watson. He's already heavily beat-up. Watson doesn't have a run game to fall back on either. The Jaguars are going to be super-fired up returning home after embarrassing road losses to the Chiefs and Cowboys. Blake Bortles didn't play well in those games. Bortles remains highly inconsistent. He won't have to win this game, though, because the Jaguars' defense will dominate. Bortles will be able to pick his spots against a weak secondary and with an underrated receiving corps. The Texans are very poorly coached. They could be 0-6 instead of 3-3. In the last three weeks, they've beaten the Colts in overtime on a bad coaching decision by Indy, nipped the Cowboys at home in overtime and were tied 13-13 with the Bills at home until getting an interception return for a touchdown against backup Nathan Peterman with 1:23 left to pull out that game. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games. That's a clear indication about the coaching ability of Bill O'Brien.
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10-20-18 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
Kentucky is going through heady times right now ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in more than 10 years in football. This has made the Wildcats overvalued in this rivalry matchup. Kentucky is at its worst in a favorite's role failing to cover the past eight times during the last two seasons. Vanderbilt can play. Just ask Notre Dame, which is ranked higher than Kentucky. The Commodores lost to the Irish, 22-17. Vanderbilt has excellent skill position players with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb. I'm not a fan of Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats rely heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. They are a one-dimensional team that the Commodores can handle.
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10-17-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 107-98 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
The Clippers are below the radar now that they have no stars left. But what the Clippers have going for them is a chip on their shoulder, strong perimeter defenders and more scoring in the middle. Denver has serious playoff aspirations. The Nuggets couldn't have come closer to making the playoffs last season. But the Nuggets have yet to prove they are improved defensively and can play better on the road. The Nuggets were 15-26 away from Pepsi Center and were last in defensive field goal percentage. The Clippers no longer have DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. What the Clippers do have are lockdown defenders Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. They also have some underrated scorers in Lou Williams, Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari. LA also is going to get more scoring inside with Marcin Gortat replacing the departed Jordan, whose shooting range was about one foot.
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
The Celtics have dominated the 76ers winning 14 of the last 16 regular-season games. Philadelphia has gotten a lot better, but so has Boston. The teams met in the Eastern Conference semifinals and the Celtics won the series in five games. Boston won that series despite not having Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are healthy now for the Celtics. Part of why the Celtics have had success against the 76ers is they have the depth and defenders to match up against Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons with Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes and Marcus Morris. The 76ers have an excellent starting lineup, but they lack Boston's bench strength and rely heavily on Embiid and Simmons. The Celtics have the deepest roster in the Eastern Conference and the best coach, Brad Stevens. Philadelphia played its last two preseason games in China on Oct. 5 and Oct. 8. So you wonder if the 76ers have recovered fully from that long journey. The Celtics enter this season having covered 73 percent of their last 19 home games.
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 0 m | Show |
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat. The 49ers play hard for Kyle Shanahan, but their defense has many holes and their offense is shot without Jimmy Garoppolo and multiple injuries at running back, wide receiver and in the offensive line. The Packers have a good defensive line and their secondary is much improved. C.J. Beathard doesn't have nearly the talent to keep trading points with Aaron Rodgers. |
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10-13-18 | Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio.
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10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Utah was impressive in knocking off Stanford on the road last week. But that victory has made the Utes overpriced in this matchup against Arizona, which has come on to win and cover three of its last four games after opening 0-2 under its new coach, Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin attempt to turn Khalil Tate into more passer than runner has drawn a lot of attention. What has been going under the radar is Arizona's defense, which is giving up 18.3 points per game during its first three Pac-12 Conference games. Utah leads the Pac-12 in total defense and is No. 2 in scoring defense. Tate has had half the season to get comfortable as a dual threat. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes, but his rushing yards are way down. The Utes, though, still have to respect his legs along with those of J.J. Taylor, who is the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the No. 3 rushing team in the Pac-12. They can hang with Utah. The Utes have covered only once the past five times hosting Arizona.
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition. San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday. The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach. Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14. The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes. Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 49 m | Show |
The Patriots have their swagger back after rolling past previously unbeaten Miami, 38-7, this past Sunday. It was an easy victory for New England. The Colts, though, are mentally and physically gassed after playing a full overtime and losing in heartbreak fashion to the Texans, 37-34, on Sunday. Indy's defense has played better than expected, but it is below average and wearing down. The Colts defense faced 77 plays against the Eagles two weeks ago and 84 plays on Thursday. Now the Colts have to travel on a short week to New England. It's a huge disadvantage. The Patriots may not have Rob Gronkowski , but they get back Julian Edelman from suspension. Josh Gordon should be at full speed, too. Tom Brady has the weapons to pile up points against the weary Colts even if Gronk doesn't play. The Colts need a full effort to be competitive because they lack the overall talent and experience being one of the youngest teams in the league. The Colts have a new coaching staff that still is trying to figure things out. An ill-advised fourth-and-four call from their own 44-yard line with 27 seconds left in overtime failed allowing the Texans to pull out the victory in what should have finished as a tie game. That could linger mentally with the Colts. Andrew Luck is working his way back from serious shoulder injury. Most of his passes are short. Luck has no ground attack, a porous offensive line that was without both starting tackles against the Texans and isn't expected to have his best wide receiver by far, T.Y. Hilton, nor his top tight end, Jack Doyle. The Patriots are 6-0 against the Colts since Peyton Manning left Indy. They are averaging 42.3 points against the Colts during this time span. Luck doesn't have the arm, weapons and protection time to keep pace with Brady.
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09-29-18 | Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
No this isn't a misprint. Purdue really is more than a field goal road favorite against Nebraska. Perhaps the line is justified giving how disappointing Nebraska has been under Scott Frost opening 0-3 and that Purdue is coming off a 30-13 victory against previously unbeaten Boston College. That was the Boilermakers' largest win margin of a ranked opponent in 19 years. But enough factors are at work here that I am confident in projecting Nebraska to win. The Cornhuskers wouldn't look so bad if they were 2-1. But the final moments of their games against Troy and Colorado went against them. The Cornhuskers then laid an egg against Michigan during their first road game. Michigan played well and steamrolled Nebraska. I see the Cornhuskers bouncing back here at home. Nebraska freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has tremendous potential and is the right quarterback to operate the team's spread offense. This is the type of offense Purdue has trouble against. Martinez is a dual threat and has some of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten to throw to, including Stanley Morgan. He might be the No. 1 wideout in the conference. On defense, Nebraska has the pass rushers to bother David Blough, who needs a clean pocket to be effective.
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Even on the road, I'll take Ben Roethlisberger over Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been playing well above his head. The Steelers are by far more experienced in marquee national televised games. They also are 9-1-1 in their last 11 regular season road games. The Buccaneers are beat-up in the secondary, vulnerable to Antonio Browns and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Another plus for the Steelers is the expected return of cornerback Joe Hadon, who should limit DeSean Jackson's home-run ability. Pittsburgh also has a far more dependable place-kicker.
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes. But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game. The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed. Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury. The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team. Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech can put up points sparked by quarterback J'Mar Smith and running back Jaqwis Dancy. They've help the Bulldogs average 42 points. Skip Holtz has taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons. The Bulldogs have hung with other SEC foes during the past two seasons losing by one point to South Carolina last year and to Arkansas by one point two seasons ago. This is an in-state game that Louisiana Tech is going to take far more serious than LSU, which is in a letdown spot and also caught in a division sandwich. The Tigers pulled out a one-point road victory against Auburn last week as a double-digit 'dog by scoring nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU hosts Mississippi next week. That's an SEC matchup the Tigers will be pointing to not this non-conference game. Note, too, LSU has yet to commit a turnover in three games. That's hard to sustain.
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
What is the oddsmaker trying to tell you by making USC, which is 1-2 and hasn't looked sharp, more than a field goal favorite against unbeaten Washington State? They are saying the Trojans are the superior team. I believe that, too. I envision the Trojans playing their best game of the season. Washington State has played far weaker competition than USC having beaten Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, an FCS team. By contrast, USC has taken on Stanford and Texas during the last two weeks. Both of those losses came on the road. Now the Trojans are at the LA Coliseum where they have won 17 in a row, including 12 straight versus Pac-12 foes. This will be the fourth start for J.T. Daniels, one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in the country. Daniels has tremendous talent and dangerous receivers. USC's running backs are better than they have shown so far especially Stephen Carr. Washington State no longer has its star quarterback, Luke Falk. Gardner Minshew, a transfer from East Carolina, has done well as the Cougars' quarterback. But this is a real step-up game for him. The Trojans have an overall talent edge and bursting frustration that is ready to be let loose here.
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09-19-18 | Reds +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -129 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
Strange things happen in September during baseball season. One such thing is Matt Harvey pitching well again. Harvey is pitching his best ball this month posting a 2.50 ERA in three starts. Certainly the Brewers are the superior team, but the Reds have gone 5-5 during the past 10 meetings in Milwaukee. The Reds can hurt the Brewers again drawing lefty Gio Gonzalez, who hasn't been effective during the last four months after pitching well in April and May. He's allowed five earned runs or more in five of his last 10 starts. The Reds are 22 games below .500. However, they are a far more respectable 22-23 versus lefty starters. If given the cushion of plus 1 1/2 runs, Cincinnati would be 9-2 in its last 11 games.
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09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago. But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team. Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive. Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight. Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3. Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers. The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good. Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money. |
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09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 151 h 59 m | Show |
The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet. The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. |
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09-14-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The Tigers are going with their best pitcher, lefty Matt Boyd, here against Josh Tomlin. Josh Tomlin? Yep the Indians stiff is getting a rare start because Cleveland is gearing up for the playoffs and is on cruise control. The Indians are displaying a real lack of concern about winning this game by trotting Tomlin out to start. Tomlin is 1-5 with a 6.63 ERA. This will be his seventh start. He's 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his first six starts. The Indians booted him out of the rotation way back on May 15. The Tigers beat the Indians, 9-8, during Tomlin's last start on May 15 getting to him for four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. Boyd gave up one run on two hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk in his last start, which came this past Saturday against the Cardinals. Boyd has a 3.05 career ERA versus Cleveland in seven appearances, including six starts. Cleveland is only 19-18 versus southpaws on the season. The Indians have lost seven of the past eight times they've faced a lefty starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Tigers' record would look much better. They would be 9-2 in their last 11 games if plus 1 1/2.
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 54 m | Show |
Forget last season's 0-16 record. The Browns are going to be much improved this season. The oddsmaker has lined their over/under win total at 5 1/2 victories. That should be an indicator right there. The Browns have been itching for this home opener all off-season having had to endure and live with last season's winless year. Talent-wise, the Browns are close to a .500 team. They were done in by a staggering minus 28 turnover ratio, worst in the NFL in 17 years. All but 13 of their 41 turnovers were committed by overmatched rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. Veteran Tyrod Taylor replaces Kizer. Taylor has a winning record as a starting NFL quarterback. Tom Brady is the only starting quarterback who has a lower interception rate than Taylor during the past three years. Taylor has just 20 turnovers during the last three years with Buffalo spanning 43 starts, an average of fewer than seven turnovers per season. By contrast, Cleveland quarterbacks had a combined 34 turnovers in 2017. Cleveland has decent talent with Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Zeitler, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward, Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. Pittsburgh has a history of playing down to its level of competition especially on the road. The Steelers just nipped a much worse Browns team opening week last year at Cleveland winning, 21-18. The Steelers lost to the Bears in their next road contest. They edged the Colts, who were playing a backup quarterback, by only three points at Indianapolis and defeated the sub .500 Bengals by three points at Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger has a staggering home/road difference. He plays far better at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger has thrown 49 more touchdown passes at home and has 14 more interceptions on the road. Roethlisberger has a new offensive coordinator for the first time in six years with Todd Haley leaving. Guess where Haley went? Cleveland. Haley knows Roethlisberger and the Steelers' tendencies as well as anyone. The Steelers were 25th in yards per rush last season despite having Le'Veon Bell, who could enter the matchup extremely rusty if he has another prolonged holdout like last year. If you discount the Steelers' last road game in which they scored 34 points against the Texans and their backup quarterback, T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than 21 points in seven of its last nine road games. Taylor has a 23-5 record when his team allows 21 or less points. Note, too, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are 1-5-1 ATS in Week 1 during the past seven years.
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford just isn't Bryce Love. KJ Costello has become a star quarterback and he has one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cardinal rolled past San Diego State, 31-10, last week despite Love rushing for only 29 yards. Costello and Arcega-Whiteside made up for that teaming up for 226 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Costello not only has great skill position weapons, but a strong offensive line. USC can't match that firepower with freshman J.T. Daniels making his first road start. The Trojans just led UNLV by five points in the fourth quarter before pulling away although failing to cover the spread. Stanford was perfect at home last season. The Cardinal also have double revenge from last season. USC coach Clay Helton has a terrible record when taking points. The Trojans are 1-8 SU and ATS since 2015 as underdogs.
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09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10 | Top | 56-20 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat.
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08-28-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Not only are the Red Sox far, far superior to the Marlins, but there is zero chance of them taking Miami lightly. That's because Boston just suffered its first sweep of the season losing three in a row on the road to Tampa Bay. Now the Red Sox are home and should be re-energized after being idle on Monday. I see this as a kill spot for the Red Sox so am going to lay 1 1/2 runs in order to knock down the high juice as the oddsmaker also envisions this as an easy win for Boston. The Red Sox are 48 games above .500. The Marlins are 19 games below .500. Boston is 39-14 the past 53 times they've met an opponent with a losing record. The Red Sox have beaten their opponent by multiple runs during 10 of their last 11 victories. The Marlins have lost by more than one run in seven of their past eight defeats. The pitching matchup is Jose Urena, who is 4-12 with a 4.50 ERA, against swingman Brian Johnson, who is at his best when starting. Johnson is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 starts. Boston has won eight of those 10 outings. Miami is 3-8 in Urena's past 11 road starts. Urena has pitched slightly worse on the road. He's going to be facing a DH and the top team in the majors in runs, batting average and OPS. The Marlins have nobody anywhere close to the caliber of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez.
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08-24-18 | Lions +3 v. Bucs | Top | 33-30 | Win | 105 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
Being the better team doesn't always matter when it's preseason. Unless that team has motivation, which the Lions do here against the Buccaneers. Detroit is 0-2 and didn't look good in its last game, a 30-17 home loss to the Giants as 3-point favorites last week. The Lions need a victory. So does Matt Patricia, Detroit's first-year head coach. So the Lions are pointing to this game even more than the normal dress rehersal. Not only are the Lions going to play their starters for at least the first half, but they also scouted the Buccaneers. This is something they didn't do for their first two preseason games. Matthew Stafford has looked good in camp. However, he's played only three series - 13 snaps - during preseason so far. He could play into the third quarter in this game. Patricia has made it clear this is the Lions' dress rehersal game and that he won't be playing his starters next week during the Lions' final preseason game. Tampa Bay has nothing to prove. The Buccaneers are 2-0 winning both of their preseason games on the road. Tampa Bay has been horrible at home in preseason going 2-8 SU and ATS the past five years. The Buccaneers have a cluster injury situation in their offensive line. They didn't have four of their top six offensive linemen practice Wednesday. Left tackle Donovan Smith definitely won't play due to a sprained knee. Jameis Winston has played in both preseason games throwing a combined 31 passes. The Bucs might want to limit his snaps here especially since Winston is suspened for the first two games of the regular season.
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08-22-18 | Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Maybe it was going 2-5 during their last road trip, which concluded this past Sunday. Whatever the reasons, the Nationals have hoisted up the White Flag. They did that by trading Daniel Murphy for a prospect and losing Matt Adams on waivers. The Phillies are superior to Washington. This isn't just opinion. Philadelphia has won five more games than the Nationals and lost six fewer games. They are in second-place by two games in the NL East and are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Nationals. Yet Washington is a huge favorite because of home field and a pitching matchup of Zach Eflin versus Stephen Strasburg. The Phillies would be 14-3 (82%) in Eflin's starts this season if given 1 1/2 runs. So I'm taking the Phillies with some insurance by backing them on the run line. I don't fear Strasburg. This marks his first start in more than a month and just his second appearance since June 8. Strasburg has pitched far worse at home going 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA. Washington is 1-5 in his last six home starts. |
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08-19-18 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
The Padres are giving rookie pitcher Brett Kennedy a third chance. I don't think that's a good idea based on Kennedy's first two big league starts. Those came earlier this month against the Brewers and Angels. The combined results were 11 runs on 20 hits, including four homers, in nine innings giving Kennedy a fat 11.00 ERA. The Diamondbacks have won 23 of their last 34 road games and are going with Zack Grienke. Arizona is 30-10 during Greinke's past 40 starts versus sub .500 opponents. Greinke has dominated the Padres with an 11-2 record and 2.10 ERA in 21 career starts. He held them to one run in seven innings the last time he faced them on July 27. Greinke has a 2.77 daytime ERA this season. The Diamondbacks have won by more than one run in eight of their last nine victories. Getting an extra at bat being the road team is a plus and the Padres have been horrible at Petco Park losing 21 of the past 27 times there.
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08-16-18 | Steelers v. Packers -5.5 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
This isn't just a normal preseason game for the Packers. It's different because Aaron Rodgers is expected to see action. He hasn't played in preseason since 2014. But Mike McCarthy needs to get Rodgers in sync with his many new receivers, including tight end Jimmy Graham. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger is out for the Steelers. He's in concussion protocol. Even if Rodgers plays only one or two series, he's very live to put up points against a vanilla Steelers defense that won't be playing all of their starters. Green Bay holds an edge in backup quarterbacks. The Packers' backup QB's combined for 356 passing yards in a 31-17 home win against the Titans last week. Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer are wagering a spirited battle for the No. 2 spot behind Rodgers. They both received plenty of NFL experience last season in starting roles. Pittsburgh backup quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs have never taken a snap in a real NFL game. Landry Jones, last year's backup, is a stiff and in danger of being cut. The Packers have home-field and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn't have a strong history in preseason. Pittsburgh is 7-15 SU and ATS the past five years during preseason.
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08-10-18 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
Even beating Justin Verlander on Thursday night, the Mariners are just 3-8 in their last 11 road games. I see the Astros rebounding strong tonight. So does the oddsmaker making Gerrit Cole a monster favorite against Mike Leake. The Astros should bury the Mariners in this spot so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to cut down on the heavy juice. Houston has won by two or more runs in nine of its last 11 victories. Cole has established himself as an elite pitcher since coming to the Astros. Houstin is 17-6 in Cole's last 23 starts. Cole has surrendered two or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. Leake hasn't won since June 23. He has a 4.28 ERA in his last seven starts, which include a 5-2 loss to the Astros on July 31. So this is a quick turnaround for the Astros to face Leake again. Star shortsop Carlos Correa is expected to come off the DL on Friday to play for the Astros, which would be huge since Houston remains without injured second baseman Jose Altuve.
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08-07-18 | Padres v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
I see the Brewers taking care of business at home in a big way against the rebuilding Padres, losers of nine of their last 11 games. Milwaukee has won 11 of its last 16 home games and gotten stronger offensively and in the bullpen at the trade deadline. The Brewers are going with their most consistent starter here, righthander Chase Anderson. He's pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.08 ERA in his last eight starts. Anderson has given up up two or fewer runs in each of his starts during this eight-game span. San Diego is 7-20 the past 27 times going against a righty starter. The Padres also have dropped 17 of their last 25 away matchups. Clayton Richard will be on the hill for San Diego. He has been terrible away from Petco Park with a 6.10 road ERA. Richard is coming off a July in which he was 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in six starts. The Padres gutted their bullpen at the trade deadline and Richard has only gone at least six innings in one of his last five starts. |
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08-04-18 | Angels v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
The buy sign is back on for Corey Kluber, who was dealing with a right knee injury going into All-Star break. Kluber was shaky in his first outing following the All-Star Game, but returned to his dominant ways during his last start holding the Tigers to one run in 7 1/3 innings this past Sunday. The oddsmaker is sold on Kluber being back healthy with a huge price. So the way to go around this is taking the Indians minus 1 1/2 on the run line. Cleveland's past six victories have all been by at least two runs. Kluber will catch a break if superstar Mike Trout has to sit out a third straight game because of a bruised right wrist. The Angels are going with rookie Felix Pena. He was bombed during his last start giving up seven earned runs while retiring only one batter against Seattle this past Sunday. The Angels have lost in 20 of their last 28 road games. The Indians are 65-31 in their last 96 home games.
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07-31-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 120 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
I see this as a kill spot for the Diamondbacks so I'm fine laying 1 1/2 runs with them. Texas has a little win streak going, but the Rangers aren't going to keep that up. They are pitching Bartolo Colon and their shaky bullpen just got much worse with closer Keone Kela traded to the Pirates. Kela was by far their best relief pitcher. The Rangers' focus may not all be there with this being the final day of the trade deadline. Texas also returns home after this game. Colon is an ageless wonder being 45 and fat. However, he's hitting the wall with a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts. The Diamondbacks have Zack Godley going. He pitches much better at Chase Field. Godley usually gets solid run support, too. He's among the wins leaders with 11. Arizona fortified its lineup trding for Eduardo Escobar and with Steven Souza Jr. getting healthy.
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
Yovani Gallardo was a high strikeout solid pitcher for the Brewers during his prime. However, Gallardo is well past his prime now, barely hanging on. The Rangers are the sixth team he is pitching for in the last five years. Gallardo had a 5.42 ERA in 2016. His ERA was 5.72 last year and it is 7.18 this season. The pattern clearly is there. Father time has caught up with him. The Rangers can't bail Gallardo out with their terrible bullpen either. Houston ranks in the top five in runs and batting average. The Astros have a hot Dallas Keuchel going for them, too. Keuchel is 4-0 with a 1.30 ERA in his last four starts spanning 27 2/3 innings. He is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA during his last seven starts. Houston has dominated at home with Keuchel going 40-18 during his last 58 starts at Minute Maid Park.
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07-12-18 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Playing at home during the day is a great combination for Charlie Morton. He's really only had two bad outings in 18 starts this season. But Morton has especially shined at home where he is 8-1 with a 2.66 ERA and in day games where he is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA. That's the situation he finds himself in on Thursday. Morton is in good form, too, with a 2.87 ERA in his last five starts. He has 45 strikeouts during this time frame in 31 1/3 innings. Trevor Cahill, a journeyman type, comes off the DL for his first start in a month to pitch for Oakland. He's been at his worst on the road with an 0-2 away mark and 5.66 ERA. I like this spot a lot for the Astros coming off a rare home defeat to the A's. Houston has won 49 of its last 70 home games for 70 percent.
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07-10-18 | Reds v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Indians going for me after they lost at home to the Reds last night. Since last year's All-Star Game, the Indians have compiled the best home record in the majors at 56-24. The Reds have been playing better but they are far below the Indians and draw Trevor Bauer here. Bauer is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA at Progressive Field this season. He has a 2.05 ERA in his last 10 overall starts with 99 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings during this span. Cincinnati's Sal Romano and the Reds' overworked bullpen can't match that. Romano has a 5.40 ERA on the year. He did beat the White Sox during his last start this past Wednesday, but still gave up four runs on six hits in five innings.
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07-03-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Look for the Astros to come out fired-up in this kill spot. Houston has lost three in a row. The Astros were ilde on Monday so they will be rested and ready here. Houston has won 26 of its last 36 away matchups and is 10-4 versus the Rangers this season. Dallas Keuchel goes for Houston. He has better peripherals than his 4.22 ERA shows. He ranks first in the American League in groundball-to-fly ball ratio - a key when pitching at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park - and ranks third in the AL in soft contact percentage. Long-time minor leaguer Austin Bibens-Dirkx is going for the Rangers. I don't see the 33-year-old Bibens-Dirkx faring well against an Astros lineup that has the third-highest batting average in the majors and ranks in the top-seven in runs and homers.
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06-23-18 | Tigers v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
The American League is composed of four super powers. Three of those teams are the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. The Indians are the fourth and they finally are getting into gear winning five in a row. The Indians have won their last five games by an average of 6.3 runs. They've have won their last 10 games by more than one run. So I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs with them at greatly reduced juice in a pitching matchup of Francisco Liriano versus Trevor Bauer. The Tigers have been overacheiving, but they are starting to reach their normal regression. Detroit just doesn't have the pitching and its bottom-eight offense took a big hit with Miguel Cabrera suffering a season-ending biceps injury. Liriano hasn't pitched in four weeks because of a hamstring injury. He's winless in his last five starts. He gave up five runs on six hits, including three homers, and three walks in five innings against the White Sox during his previous start on May 26. This is the Indians' third look already at Liriano, who has a 6.10 ERA versus Clevelnd this year. Bauer entered the majors with a high ceiling and he's living up to it now with a 2.50 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings. He's backed by a rested Cleveland bullpen. Cleveland has dominated Detroit going 35-13 against the Tigers during the last three years, including 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
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06-22-18 | Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Hamilton has become a much better team since June Jones took over. The Tiger-Cats nearly pulled the upset against Calgary last week, but Jeremiah Masoli threw a late interception and Calgary scored a touchdown while running out the clock resulting in a misleading 28-14 final. The Tiger-Cats have covered the past five times following a loss. They've also enjoyed excellent ATS success in Edmonton covering the past five times there. Edmonton had to scramble to nip Winnipeg last week, 33-30. Edmonton was the only CFL road winner during Week 1. The Eskimos host unbeaten BC next week so this is a bit of an early season sandwich spot for them. The Eskimos have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games. The Eskimos showed some defensive vulnerability in beating the Blue Bombers. This series has been close with each of the last six head-to-head matchups being decided by a touchdown or less. |
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06-20-18 | Rays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Rays halted the Astros' 12-game win streak Tuesday night nipping them, 2-1. That was just the Rays' second road victory in their past 11 tries. Following this game, the Rays head home after being on the road for a week. They are idle Thursday and host the Yankees in a marquee series beginning Friday. So this isn't a great spot for the Rays. The defending world champion Astros should bounce back strong here in a pitching matchup of righthanders Nathan Eovaldi versus Charlie Morton. Houston is 50-19 in its last 69 games against righty starters. I think it's a kill spot for the vastly superior Astros so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs to greatly reduce the vigorish. Eovaldi will be making his fifth start since returning from a second Tommy John surgery. Eovaldi has flashed during his career, but he's still very much on the recovery trail. I don't see him ready to deal with an elite offense. Eovaldi faced the Yankees in his last start and surrendered five runs on eight hits in 7 1/3 innings. The Astros have the highest batting average in the majors and are No. 2 in runs. The Rays rank 25th in runs. Morton has thrived since joining the Astros. He's 8-1 with a 2.94 ERA this season. The Rays have struck out 10 or more times during each of their last six games. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
You can talk zig-zag and the Cavaliers going all out to salvage at least one game. But this series is a foregone conclusion - and the Cavaliers know it. None of the other 131 teams in NBA history who have fallen behind 3-0 in a playoff series have come back to win. Neither will Cleveland. LeBron James trying to battle four stars - two of whom are superstars - isn't a fair fight. Golden State's talent is so above Cleveland's that the Warriors don't even have to be fully motivated to cover this spread. Golden State proved that in a 110-102 road victory in Game 3 this past Wednesday. The Warriors won and covered despite Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combining to score only 21 points while missing a combined 20 of 27 shots from the floor. It didn't matter because of other reaons such as Kevin Durant being so good, Golden State's better bench and holding a coaching edge. The Cavaliers weren't able to beat the Warriors last year when they had Kyrie Irving and were much better. Durant is a major reason. Golden State is 7-1 against Cleveland in the playoffs since Durant became part of the Warriors. Cleveland lacks the defense, coaching and role players to hang close to Golden State. J.R. Smith has been so brutal that he could get MVP votes - for Golden State. Kyle Korver is just a rumor. No, the Cavaliers don't have it. James can't put forth anymore than what he's doing while the Warriors are capable of better. Even if they aren't, they still hold enough edges to cover.
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06-06-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Not only do the Marlins have the worst record in the National League, but their losses usually aren't close either. They have lost by more than one run in nine of their last 11 losses. St. Louis is poised to make a move with Yadier Molina back from the DL and Marcell Ozuna heating up. The Cardinals fell as big favorites to the Marlins on Tuesday in the first game of this series. I don't see a repeat of that happening. Neither does the oddsmaker with this huge of a price. This game shapes up as a kill spot for the Cardinals so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs and get a plus price rather than have to risk heavy juice.
Miami had lost six in a row until last night. They last time the Marlins won back-to-back games was May 22-23 versus the Mets. The Marlins are starting lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who is coming off a serious injury and trying to round into form. He has a 6.10 ERA and doesn't go deep into games. The Marlins have a very weak bullpen. I like Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty, who is displaying a lot of promise with a 2.62 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings. The Cardinals have won 62 percent of their games this season against lefty starters. |
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05-31-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Drew Pomeranz isn't in great form. But the Red Sox are way undervalued her. They are so undervalued that I can still get a bargain on them at plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball at 39-17. They would be 23-7 in their last 30 games if given 1 1/2 runs. The Astros aren't playing well going 1-4 in their last five games. This also marks Houston's first game back from a seven-game road trip, which isn't a good situational spot. Lance McCullers has a 6.16 ERA in four career starts versus the Red Sox. Pormeranz has a 3.69 lifetime ERA against Houston in 12 appearances.
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
Wrong opening favorite. I don't care that the Cavaliers have won and covered the past two games in convincing fashion. Those games were in Cleveland. This one is in Boston where the Celtics are 13-1 SU and ATS in its last 14 games at TD Garden. The Celtics are a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs. Cleveland has a losing road mark in the postseason. This includes two losses at Boston earlier in the series by an average of 19 points. Boston has been tough at home all season on a 75 percent covering run during its last 24 home contests. The Celtics have a lot of youthful talent who play more relaxed and under control at TD Garden. The Celtics also figure to get a better break from the officials than they did these past two games in Cleveland. LeBron James has been great as usual in the series, but I don't trust Cleveland's role players especially on the road. Kevin Love is showing signs of fatigue. He may not be 100 percent and J.R. Smith is 8-for-33 shooting from the floor for 24.2 percent. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Are the Warriors really better than the Rockets? I'll take nearly double-digits to find out. This line is inflated based on the Warriors' dominant 126-85 burial of the Rockets this past Sunday. Houston has now lost four times in the postseason after finishing with the best record in the NBA during the regular season at 65-17. The Rockets are 3-0 winning by an average of 20.7 points in each of their next games following a playoff loss. There's more. The Rockets have won 79.5 percent of their games when playing on one day's rest, averaging 115.5 points. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times on the road when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. Golden State, by contrast, is 4-15 ATS the last 19 times playing on one day's rest. The Warriors also have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a straight-up victory. It wouldn't be surprising if the Warriors are a tad bit complacent and overconfident following their dominant performance. Golden State may not have Andre Iguodala either. He's questionable with a bruised knee. Iguodala is an outstanding two-way player, who I consider the Warriors' top role player.
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
I look for the Celtics to come back strong after getting trounced, 116-86, by the Cavaliers in Game 3 this past Saturday. Boston has won and covered each of the past three times it has lost. The Celtics ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency this season. They are the better defensive team and the better coached team. LeBron James is great. But the rest of the Cavaliers played way over their heads as Cleveland shot 17-of-34 from 3-point range and made 25 of 30 free throws in their Game 3 blowout. Cleveland still is terrible as a home favorite especially in this price range covering just 26 percent the past 31 times when laying 5 1/2 or more points. The Cavaliers are 22-50 ATS when favored this season, including 2-5 in the postseason. Brad Stevens will make the proper adjustments and the Celtics will come out fired-up after being embarrassed. James is the best player, but the Celtics are the better team. I'll take team over individual.
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
Cleveland is in must-win mode down 0-2 in this Eastern Conference final. The problem for the Cavaliers is that aside from LeBron James, they aren't championship caliber. After James, the Celtics have the three best players in Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. The Celtics also have a monster coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. This edge is magnified by the teams having not played since Tuesday. Boston has covered six of the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. James couldn't have played better than he did during Tuesday's Game 2 scoring 42 points, pulling down 10 rebounds and dishing off 12 assists. Still, the Cavaliers lost by 13 points. James had an off-game in Game 1 and the Cavaliers lost by 25 points. The oddsmaker isn't buying the Celtics' domination, though, making the Cavaliers a mid-sized favorte. Some of this thought process entails Cleveland playing harder, smarter and employing better defense. I do believe the Cavaliers will produce an "A" level effort. I think it's a leap of faith, though, to believe Lue can coach against Stevens and a knucklehead like J.R. Smith can come through. The line also is skewed high in Cleveland's favor because the Cavaliers are home now. Boston is 1-4 on the road in the playoffs. The Celtics are playing at a high level. They are not superstar-dependent like the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are going against a well-coach opponent that is playing excellent team basketball. I don't see the Celtics being intimidated, or rolling over, just because of a venue shift. The Celtics have, after all, covered 67 percent of their last 55 road contests. They are 4-0-1 ATS during their past five visits to Cleveland. Cleveland has proven bad at home and as a favorite. The Cavaliers have covered just 30 percent of their last 51 games at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its 14 overall games and has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when laying points.
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05-11-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Reds can hope. But their hopes are going to be in vain if they expect Matt Harvey to resmeble anything like his All-Star form of 2013 before multiple injuries, including Tommy John surgery, derailed his effectiveness. Harvey is 9-19 during the past three seasons with ERA's of 4.86, 6.70 last season and 7.00 in four starts this season. He's surrendered six homers in 27 innings this year and hasn't pitched in eight days. So I'm certainly not expecting much from Harvey. Neither should the Reds. Harvey is likely to be rusty. So this could mean an early call for the Cincinnati bullpen, which isn't very good except for closer Raisel Iglesias and he carries a high fatigue rating having pitching 3 1/3 innings the past two days throwing 42 pitches. The Dodgers have been underachieving. They are due and they aren't going to lack motivation after losing 4-1 to the Reds last night. The Reds have the worst record in the National League at 11-27. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is far more effective pitching at home where his ERA is 1.98 this season.
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The 76ers have some outstanding young talent. But they don't have the savvy, experience and coaching to beat the Celtics on the road. Boston leads this series 3-1 by defeating the 76ers by 16 and five points, respectively, at home along with an overtime road win in Game 3. The 76ers staved off elimination by downing the Celtics, 103-92, at home in Game 4 two days ago. The 76ers were sparked by T.J. McConnel, who scored a career-high 19 points after being inserted into the starting lineup. The 76ers were the more motivated and physical team. They also dominated in the paint. I don't see any of these factors standing up again with the teams returning to Boston. Brad Stevens is the sharpest coach in the Eastern Conference, if not all of basketball. He'll have a solid game plan and he has the brains to get the best of 76ers coach Brett Brown with in-game adjustments. The Celtics have proven they can win without Kyrie Irving. They have won and covered 11 of their last 12 home games. The Celtics have a top-three defense. The 76ers' defense is underrated, but it is not as good on the road. Philadelphia has given up an average of 109.3 points during its past six away matchups.
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
I don't see Dwane Casey letting the Raptors quit here. Yes, Toronto is down 3-0 in the series. No NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series. But this has been a very competitive series. The Raptors lost by one point in overtime in Game 1 despite never trailing during regulation. Toronto lost by two points in Game 3 at Cleveland when LeBron James hit a basket at the buzzer. The Raptors made only 38 percent of their uncontested shots from the floor during those two defeats. So the looks are there. DeMar DeRozan is due to step up. Even if he doesn't, though, Kyle Lowery is playing well averaging 22 points and eights assists in the series while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. The Raptors have a strong bench. James is playing at a superhuman level. However, he's not getting much help from his teammates. It's been that way during the playoffs and regular season for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been overpiced all season due to James. That hasn't changed here. Cleveland has covered only 28 percent of the time during the past 53 instances when laying three or more points. They are 0-7 ATS the last seven times as home favorites. |
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05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | Top | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
There's too big of a class difference. Pure and simple. Can the Jazz cover this number? Sure - if they shoot 60 percent from 3-point range, the Rockets are uninspired and some unheralded guy like Joe Ingles has the game of his life. But none of that is likely to happen again like it did in Game 2. What has transpired is Houston is 6-1 ATS this season versus Utah. The Rockets have whipped the Jazz by 21, 11 and 11 points in their three games at Salt Lake City. The Rockets were motivated and on their game this past Friday - unlike in Game 2 - building a 30-point advantage in cruising to a 113-92 win. Nothing has changed. The Rockets have far too many weapons. James Harden is unstoppable. Chris Paul still is a superstar. Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and underrated Clint Capela give the Rockets far more weapons than the Jazz. Utah is heavily reliant upon rookie Donovan Mitchell especially with Ricky Rubio out. Mitchell missed 12 of 16 shots from the floor in Game 3 perhaps feeling the strain of being so heavily counted on. Now there's a chance the Jazz could be without their second-best frontcourt player as Derrick Favors is dealing with a sprained ankle. The Rockets very well could be the best team in basketball. It's not a good matchup for the Jazz, whose defensive strength is inside with rim protector Rudy Gobert not defending against 3-point shooters. Utah ranked 17th in defensive 3-point percentage. The Rockets already have 20 more free throw attempts than Utah and set an NBA record for most 3-point shots attempted.
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
It doesn't matter that the Raptors entered the playoffs with the best record in the Eastern Conference and were the lone NBA team to rank in the top-five both offensively and defensively. All that matters now is the Raptors are in do-or-die mode down 0-2 in this series and on the road. But should it matter? I think it should count for something. True, the Raptors have yet to prove they can win in Cleveland. Toronto, though, has improved each season. The Raptors are to the point where they can legitimately win the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The talent and coaching are there. So I'm going to back them here. The Cavaliers are in danger of a letdown after winning the first two games of this series on the road, including stealing Game 1. There shouldn't be any doubt about the Raptors' intensity for this matchup. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery are star players. They're due to play more consistent. Certainly Serge Ibaka is due to play much, much better. He isn't the player he once was, but I don't believe he's washed up either. Dwane Casey rates a major coaching edge on Tyronn Lue. I'm confident Casey will get the most from his team in this game and make proper adjustments. He has the talent and bench to do this. People would be looking at this series different if the Raptors had at least split at home. They never trailed during regulation in the opening game of this series yet lost by one point in overtime. Then James had a monster performance in Game 2 with 43 points. Kevin Love played well, too. Toronto got mentally down. It's hard to believe even James can top his great Game 2 performance and Love can't be trusted to play well. The Raptors can't afford to get down here - and they know it. Cleveland is not a dominant home team. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last six games at Quicken Loans Arena. They have either lost, or won by fewer than five points during these past six home games.
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Do you believe in the Jazz? I don't. Not against the Rockets. Oh, Houston, at least has to show up. It can't just take the fesity Jazz for granted. That's something the Rockets did early in their Game 2 matchup against Utah. Houston couldn't recover from falling 19 points down during a flat performance and lost, 116-108. Utah also shot 60 percent from 3-point range making 15 of 25 shots from beyond the arc. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City - and the spread becomes much shorter. I see the Rockets regaining their intensity. The alarm clock has sounded. It's wake-up time. That's enough to cover this number because Houston is a much better team. The Rockets had covered the past five games against the Jazz until the last matchup. Houston is 2-0 at Utah this season winning those games by an average of 11 points. The Jazz aren't hitting 60 percent of their 3-point shots again. They ranked 12th during the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.6 percent. The Rockets set a record for most 3-point shots taken during the season. The Rockets were above average in 3-point shooting percentage and ranked seventh in 3-point defense while the Jazz are 17th in 3-point percentage defense. Look for things to get back to normal with the Rockets winning and covering this Game 3.
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04-29-18 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Maybe it's preordained that the Cavaliers and LeBron James win this Game 7 being at home. But I certainly have to take these points to find that out. It has been obvious all season, even with turning the roster over at the trade deadline, that aside from James the Cavaliers have problems. They just aren't that good especially when laying points. Only twice in their last 13 games have the Cavaliers defeated a foe by six or more points. The Pacers have outscored the Cavaliers by 50 points in this series. The Pacers went 3-1 during the regular season against the Cavaliers. Cleveland's three victories in this series have been by an average of 3.3 points. The Cavaliers haven't defeated the Pacers by more than four points during the series. Maybe the pressure gets to the Pacers. But I don't see it. The Cavaliers are a one-man team. James is getting no help. Kevin Love, bothered by a thumb injury, is shooting 32.4 percent in the series He's more a liability than a help. James and Love are the only Cleveland players even averaging double figures in the series for Cleveland. Indiana has been underrated all season. Victor Oladipo has become a legitimate star. Myles Turner gives Indiana the best big man. The Pacers hold a bench edge. Domantas Sabonis has been stepping up big. He's on fire making 26 of 35 field goals during the last three games. Lance Stephenson is an annual hindrance to James. Again, this isn't some dominant Cavaliers team. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games. They aren't a strong home team either covering just 30 percent of their last 54 home games. The Pacers have proven themselves against this caliber of opponent going 9-1 ATS the past 10 times on the road when meeting a foe with a winning percentage greater than .600. Indiana also has covered in seven of their last eight visits to Quicken Loans Arena.
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04-28-18 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Coming off an embarrassing 8-1 home loss to the A's and sizzling Sean Manaea on Friday, the Astros should get back on track in a big way facing Daniel Mengden. The Astros' last seven victories all have been by at least three runs. Mengden was drafted by the Astros four years ago and then traded to Oakland. He's yet to find success with the A's. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in four career starts versus Houston. The A's bullpen is down injured setup man Ryan Buchter. Houston has won 40 of its last 57 (70%) homes when going against a right-handed starter. The Astros have the superior starter, Lance McCullers, and bullpen going here. McCullers pitches much better at Minute Maid Park. This is just his second home start of the season. He gave up two earned runs in five innings to the Padres in his first home start this year. McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 home ERA last year compared to 3-4 with a 5.14 road ERA. Two years ago, McCullers was 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA pitching at Minute Maid Park while going 1-2 on the road with a 5.57 ERA. So the pattern clearly is established that McCullers is a much better home park pitcher.
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04-27-18 | Raptors +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm always attracted to taking the better team when they are getting points. That's the case with this opening number. It's close to a double-digit difference from the last game two days ago when the Raptors were seven-point home favorites. True, the Raptors have yet to win in Washington having gone 0-2 against the Wizards on the road during this series. But I don't see them losing three consecutive away playoff matchups to the Wizards. I like the adjustments Raptors coach Dwane Casey made in Game 5 when the Raptors whipped the Wizards by 10 points. Slow down the Wizards in transition and you'll likely win. The Raptors can do this. The Wizards need big scoring games from Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. to complement John Wall. Porter, however, may not play because of a leg injury. His shooting has been off because of the injury. I trust Casey, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowery and Serge Ibaka more than Scott Brooks, Wall and Co.
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