Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves -3 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are playing their best ball going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Tom Thibodeau has improved Minnesota's defense and Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are legitimate stars. The Pacers have been horrid on the road covering only 27 percent of their away games. This is the Pacers' seventh different venue in a row. Indiana may be short-handed in the backcourt, too, with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey each questionable with injuries.
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01-25-17 | UCLA -5.5 v. USC | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.
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01-25-17 | Kings v. Cavs -11 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings. So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons. The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. |
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01-24-17 | Clippers -3 v. 76ers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I can't see the 76ers beating the Clippers without Joel Embiid, who is out with knee soreness. The 76ers had won eight of nine, but lost to the Hawks on Saturday, 110-93, when Embiid was out. Philadelphia isn't nearly as good without Embiid, the likely rookie of the year award winner. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS when Embiid has sat out this season. The Clippers are learning to live without Chris Paul. They upset the Hawks in Atlanta last night, 115-105, and don't want to give that great victory away with a loss to the lowly 76ers, a team they have beaten the past nine times by a victory margin of 21.9 points. The Clippers should give a full effort since they don't play against until Saturday when they play at the Warriors. The Clippers should get an added boost as Blake Griffin is expected to play after missing the last 18 games with a knee injury.
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01-23-17 | Kings v. Pistons -5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The Pistons have won their last six home games and have short revenge having lost to the Kings at Sacramento, 100-94, less than two weeks ago. Detroit is playing well and should have its full focus not playing against until Saturday. The Kings are playing in their third road game in four days. They are down their second-best player, Rudy Gay. Despite beating the Pistons in the first matchup, the Kings are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Detroit.
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
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01-21-17 | UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 105-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge. |
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01-20-17 | Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
You must have a great offense and outstanding 3-point defense to beat the Rockets. The Warriors have both of that leading the NBA in scoring and 3-point defense. They also have the superior roster. Add this up plus throw in a revenge factor and a Rockets fatigue factor and the Warriors should cover this mid-sized spread. Houston is playing for the third time in four days. The Rockets may be without third-leading scorer Ryan Anderson. The power forward has missed the past two games due to illness. The Rockets edged Golden State, 132-127, in overtime last month in the team's first meeting. But if the Warriors are on their "A" game no team can beat them. Golden State has won nine of its last 10. In their last two games, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers by 35 points and Thunder by 21 points forcing 10 turnovers from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder could make just 8 of 28 shots from 3-point range, an ominous sign for the Rockets, who heavily rely on shooting 3-pointers and playing up-tempo. Up next for the Warriors are games against lottery teams the Magic and Heat. So the Warriors' full focus should be on display.
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
Optimism is fading for the Kings as they've endured a 1-5 homestand in their new state-of-the-art arena. This is the last game of the Kings' extended homestand before they embark on an eight-game road swing. So this matchup is absolutely crucial for the Kings. Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven games. But the Pacers also have failed to cover 13 of their 18 road contests this season and their recent success isn't as impressive as it looks on closer inspection. Let's first start with the Kings. In four of their last five games, they've played the Clippers, Warriors, Cavaliers and Thunder. They played those teams tough, but lost. Their lone home win during their past five games came against the Pistons. The Pacers are far closer to the Pistons than they are to the other teams the Kings lost to. None of the six teams the Pacers beat during their 6-1 streak holds a winning record. The Pacers played five of their past seven games at home. But Indiana is one of those teams with a huge home/road split - 16-5 SU home, 5-14 SU road. The Pacers' lone loss during this span came in London against Denver by 28 points. It occurred six days ago. That's significant. Having made numerous overseas trips I know it often takes more than a week to get your legs and internal clock working properly. Now the Pacers are playing at their fourth straight different venue and third different time zone traveling to the West Coast. Don't read much into Indiana's last game, a 98-95 home win against New Orleans on Monday. The Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a hip injury during the middle of the third quarter. Still, the Pelicans could have won if they didn't miss nine of their last 10 shots. It's another red flag for the Pacers that their bench was outscored 51-19 by the Pelicans. Indiana got lucky missing Davis for 1 1/2 quarters. If Davis isn't the best big man in basketball than DeMarcus Cousins is. Rudy Gay is back healthy, too, for the Kings. Sacramento has had the Pacers' number lately, too, winning the past four meetings and covering five of the last six in the series.
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01-17-17 | San Diego State -5 v. UNLV | Top | 64-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 162 h 36 m | Show |
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game. |
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
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01-13-17 | Hornets -5.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
It's weird to write this, but the 76ers are actually in a letdown spot after coming from 17 points down to nip the Knicks at the buzzer during their last game two days ago. That was Philly's 11th win of the season passing their victory total of a year ago. It also was the 76ers' second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Hornets are in stop-the-pain mode after three losses in a row with the last two occurring on the road against the Spurs and Rockets. Charlotte hasn't been in action since Tuesday. Maybe Nicolas Batum returns after missing the last two games with a knee injury. That would be a bonus, but I like the Hornets even if Batum doesn't play. This is a rare game when the 76ers' opponent is taking them fully serious and considering this an important game. That's the case with Charlotte. The Hornets are middle-of-the-road both offensively and defensively. They are well coached and are leading the NBA in forcing turnovers for a fourth straight season. They are two levels higher than the 76ers and won't lack motivation here.
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01-12-17 | UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength. Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused.
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 145 h 31 m | Show |
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams. |
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01-06-17 | 76ers +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The Celtics escaped with just a one-point win when these teams last met. The 76ers didn't have Joel Embiid in that game either. The Celtics have been nothing special at home going 9-6 SU and 6-9 against the spread. |
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01-05-17 | Suns v. Mavs -6 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Prideful, veteran and now healthy at last, Dallas is coming on. Dallas is 9-11 in its last 20 games after opening 2-13.
Dallas rolled past the Lakers and Wizards and lost by singe-digits to the Warriors in their last three games. The Suns are 4-16 on the road playing for the third in four days, while this is just the Mavericks' second game in six days. The Mavericks swept the Suns last season winning by an average of 13 points. This is an opponent they have the confidence and veteran savvy to handle - and cover a mid-size margin. |
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01-03-17 | Grizzlies -3 v. Lakers | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are coming off their best December ever while the Lakers are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Marc Gasol may not play because of a sore ankle, but Mike Conley is back in the lineup. The well coached Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers 10 of the last 11 times. Memphis plays at the Clippers on Wednesday and at the Warriors on Friday so it can't afford to take a loss here. Memphis also has covered in 11 of its last 13 Western Conference games. The Grizzlies rank No. 2 defensively. They give up 13 fewer points per game than the Lakers. |
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01-01-17 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 57 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
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01-01-17 | Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 26 m | Show |
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
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01-01-17 | Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 138 h 4 m | Show |
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.
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12-31-16 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
There are plenty of reasons why I like the Grizzlies to beat the Kings starting with that they are the much superior defensive team. Memphis ranks No. 1 in giving up the fewest points per 100 possessions and is No. 2 in fewest road points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Grizzlies open a four-game West Coast trip here with a lot of confidence and intensity. They lost 96-92 to the Kings at home on Dec. 16. The loss was especially tough because the Kings are coached by former Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger. I like Joerger. But I also like David Fizdale, who is doing a tremendous job coaching the Grizzlies this season. Memphis just rolled past Oklahoma City, 114-80, at home on Thursday. That was a season-low in points for the Thunder. Russell Westbrook couldn't do anything against a Grizzlies defense keying on him. Westbrook had zero assists and six turnovers. The Grizzlies won that game by 34 points despite not having Mike Conley. It's a bonus if Conley plays here, but I'm fine with Memphis if he doesn't. Marc Gasol is going to play. Gasol could be the Comeback Player of the Year. The Grizzlies are 8-3 when Gasol plays and Conley doesn't. Sacramento is heavily reliant on its superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. Stop Cousins and you stop the Kings because they don't have enough good pieces especially with Rudy Gay bothered by a hip injury that has kept him out of seven of the last eight games. Portland just rolled the Kings, 102-89, at home this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers heavily focused on Cousins, holding him to 8 of 19 shooting from the floor. The rest of the Kings couldn't pick up the slack. When you have to rely on Garrett Temple and Matt Barnes for heavy scoring you're in trouble. That's the scenario I envision in this game especially given then Memphis is a far better defensive team than Portland. The Grizzlies have covered 10 of their last 12 Western Conference games and are 4-1 ATS during their last five visits to Sacramento.
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12-31-16 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl pedigree can't be underestimated. Georgia Tech and its veteran coach, Paul Johnson, know all about bowl competition. Georgia Tech has been to a bowl during 19 of the last 20 years. Kentucky hasn't been in a bowl game since 2010. The Wildcats are just relieved to received a bowl bid. The Wildcats' season was made when they upset in-state rival Louisville, 41-38. Note, though, Louisville gained 561 yards on the Wildcats rushing for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. SEC teams such as Kentucky don't face triple option offenses such as Georgia Tech's. I don't see the Wildcats being able to stop the Yellow Jackets. Kentucky surrenders more than 31 points per game. Their rush defense ranks 109th and their total defense is 89th allowing more than 442 yards per game. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards averaging 257.4. The Yellow Jackets have come on after a slow start to go 5-1. I like the experience and dual threat ability of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas. I like Johnson as a coach. Quarterback and coach are two edges Georgia Tech has going. Kentucky lost by three points at home to fellow SEC foe Georgia while Georgia Tech defeated the Bulldogs on the road.
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12-30-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The Pacers are in circle-the-wagons mode having dropped four in a row, including a 90-85 road loss to the Bulls this past Monday. Indiana has lost 13 of 17 on the road, but is 11-5 at home. The Pacers have won five of their last six home contests, including defeating the Clippers by 21 points and Hornets by 16 during this span. Their backcourt has gotten healthier with the return of Monta Ellis and Paul George broke out of his slump with 34 points in the Pacers' last game a road loss to the Wizards two days ago. Chicago has lost 10 of its 16 road games, including going 0-5 SU and ATS this month. This is a rare week day game, which works against the visitor. The Bulls just squeaked past the lowly Nets by two at home in their last game two days ago thanks to Jimmy Butler, who tweaked his ankle in that game and may not be 100 percent. The Bulls have failed to cover the past seven times following a victory.
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3 | Top | 38-8 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
Playing in a bowl game, especially a minor one such as this, is no big deal for Oklahoma State. This will be the 11th straight year the Cowboys have gone bowling under Mike Gundy. This game is a big deal for Colorado, though. The Buffaloes suffered during their first five years in the Pac-12 while coach Mike MacIntyre was laying a foundation. Everything came together for the Buffaloes this season as they went 10-3 and captured the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes were dominated by top-four power Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury early in that game and didn't play well. He'll be fine here and the Buffaloes have huge motivation to erase the stigma of that Pac-12 title game loss and capture their first bowl win since 2004. The Buffaloes will be ready for prime time after getting some tough experience with it during the Pac-12 championship game. That loss and national exposure provided needed big-game experience for them. Colorado has covered in 11 of its last 14 games and is 7-2 ATS the past nine times when taking on above .500 opponents. Incentive isn't enough, though, to just go with Colorado. I see the Buffaloes having key matchup edges. The Buffaloes and star running back Phillip Lindsay should pile up yards rushing against the Cowboys, who give up an average of 204.4 yards on the ground per game. Liufau is a good running quarterback, too, and doesn't turn the ball over. Oklahoma State has a balanced offense. Colorado, however, has proven itself against elite running backs holding both Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Utah's Joe Williams to less than 100 yards rushing. The Buffaloes also have the 13th best pass defense giving up just 182.2 yards through the air so Mason Rudolph won't have it easy. Oklahoma State hasn't faced a pass defense this good all season.
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12-28-16 | Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
While I respect Pittsburgh's offense its defense isn't good enough to keep Northwestern from pulling the upset. Northwestern has excellent skill position talent - including running back Justin Jackson - that can take full advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that allows 35.6 points a game, ranks 97th in yards allowed and 127th in pass defense. Jackson has nearly 4,000 career rushing yards. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved immensely as the season progressed finishing with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last eight games. Pittsburgh has excellent skill position players, too, headed by its star running back, James Connor. However, the Panthers are going up against a much stronger defense as the Wildcats hold opponents to just 22.1 points a game. The Panthers also have to deal with the distraction of their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, announcing he was leaving to become offensive coordinator at LSU. Note, too, that the Panthers have failed to cover in their last six non-conference games. The Panthers also haven't defeated a Power 5 team in the postseason since 2010.
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12-27-16 | Washington State -10 v. Minnesota | Top | 12-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State. Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach. Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game. Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game. The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten. |
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12-26-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers +4 | Top | 106-102 | Push | 0 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
It's strange to see the Nuggets a road favorite against the Clippers. But the Nuggets are rested while the Clippers played last night. Denver is such a strong road favorite, though, because the Clippers are going to be without three starters - Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick. Despite all this I like the Clippers to beat the Nuggets. The Nuggets remain a lottery team. Their defense ranks among the bottom-six in points allowed and shooting percentage. The Nuggets lack consistent scoring weapons. Their strength is rebounding and DeAndre Jordan can negate that. The Clippers are going to be fired-up with their desperate injury situation and off an embarrassing 111-102 loss to the Lakers last night at Staples Center. LA still is respectable in the backcourt with veteran Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers. The Clippers have beaten the Nuggets in six of the last seven meetings, including 119-102 six days ago at home. The Clippers were minus 8 in that game. Now we have a line change of 12 points. It's too much of an adjustment. The Clippers won that game without Griffin and totally dominated Denver's backcourt.
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12-25-16 | Clippers -6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
Death, taxes and the Clippers beating the Lakers. Those are about the only sure things in life. The Clippers have defeated the Lakers 11 consecutive times winning by an average of 22.6 points during the past 10 meetings. The Lakers are listed as the home team, but both teams play their home games at Staples Center so that is negated. The Clippers are furious after losing 90-88 at home to the Mavericks two days ago. They'll be ready here to pound a team they've long hated since LA has always been a Lakers town. The spot is bad for the Lakers returning home after a seven-game, two-week road trip that didn't finish until Friday night. The Lakers are not playing well after an early hot start dropping 12 of their past 13 going 3-10 ATS. They went 1-6 on their road trip. This is a cheap price to back the much superior, motivated Clippers.
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
These teams just met four weeks ago and the Broncos outgained the Chiefs, 464-273. The Chiefs, though, scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to force in overtime. The Broncos tried a long field goal in overtime that missed and the Chiefs took advantage of the good field position to kick a game-winning field goal with two seconds left. That was in Denver. But the Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Trevor Siemian has thrown for 984 yards and four touchdowns with one interception during his last three games. Alex Smith has thrown a mere 12 touchdowns passes for the season. Siemian is the more dangerous quarterback and Denver has the superior wide receivers. The Broncos still have their Super Bowl caliber defense. The Broncos have surrendered only 10 touchdown passes and lead the AFC with 40 sacks, with Von Miller accounting for 13 1/2 sacks. Denver is No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points given up. The Chiefs yield the fifth-most yards per game. Their defense is minus injured star linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have the record they have because they have scored seven touchdowns via their defense or special teams while not giving up any in those areas. While the Chiefs deserve credit for being opportunistic they also are lucky. It's far from a given that the Chiefs will score a non-offensive touchdown. They aren't good enough to cover this margin without that type of occurrence.
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting. This game is being played in the Bahamas where the temperature will be in the high 70's with the humidity being close to 80. Old Dominion is used to this type of weather having played most of its games in heat. Eastern Michigan last played on Nov. 22. The Eagles have been enduring freezing weather being in an extremely cold region. They didn't fly to Nassau until a few days ago leaving snow and seven degree temperatures. Look for the Eagles to run out of gas playing in humidity they are unaccustomed to in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Old Dominion played at Eastern Michigan last season and won 38-34. The Monarchs average 36 points, which is six points more than Eastern Michigan scores per game. Old Dominion has a balanced offense. The Monarchs have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games, all victories. Defensively, Old Dominion gives up three fewer points per game than Eastern Michigan and nearly 60 fewer yards than the Eagles. Eastern Michigan relies heavily on its quarterback, Brogan Roback. Look for Old Dominion to key on him. |
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12-21-16 | BYU -10 v. Wyoming | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
The combination of BYU being strong on both sides of the ball and Wyoming being overrated - the Cowboys actually lost to UNLV - puts me on the Cougars. BYU travels well and will have strong fan support for this bowl game in San Diego. The Cougars are the more mature team with older students, which helps in bowl situations. BYU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games, while Wyoming has failed to cover seven of its last 10 nonleague games. Wyoming is 1-3 in its last four games losing by three points in overtime to UNLV on the road, splitting with San Diego State and losing at New Mexico by 21.
BYU is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cougars beat Michigan State by 17 on the road, won at Cincinnati by 17 and lost by just one point at Boise State. Both teams have outstanding running backs, Brian Hill for Wyoming and Jamaal Williams for BYU. The key here is defense. Wyoming permits 34.8 pints a game and ranks among the bottom 17 in the nation in yards allowed per game. BYU, on the other hand, holds foes to just 19.4 points per game, which was 15th-best in the country. The Cougars rank 33rd overall in total defense and are in the top-10 in run defense. Wyoming is going to have to pass well to stay with the Cougars. Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to interceptions getting picked off 13 times. I'm fine with BYU going with Tanner Mangum at quarterback instead of Taysom Hill, who was injured at the end of the regular season. Mangum has filled in well before when Hill has gotten injured. As a freshman last season, Mangum completed 60 percent of his throws for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. |
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12-21-16 | Kings v. Jazz -7 | Top | 94-93 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
The Jazz have the discipline and defense to blow out the Kings. The timing also is right for this to occur. Sacramento is coming off a thrilling and satisfying comeback home victory against the Trail Blazers last night. DeMarcus Cousins scored 55 points after nearly getting thrown out of the game. That was a tough battle for the Kings. Now they play for the third time in four days and without rest in high altitude. The Kings are playing without injured Rudy Gay, their second-best player, too. While the Kings are now 6-6 at home, they are 5-11 on the road. Their road spread mark is better at 7-9, but still .under 500. Sacramento also has failed to cover the last five times following a victory. Utah usually takes care of business against lesser teams. The well-coached Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times they've played opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Jazz are the top defensive team in the NBA. They surrender nine points fewer per game than Sacramento. Utah should be fired-up after getting embarrassed, 104-74, at Golden State last night. The plus to that blowout was no Utah player had to log big minutes. Prior to that loss, Utah had won seven of eight, including four in a row. The Jazz have won 10 of their last 15 in Salt Lake City.
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12-20-16 | Pacers v. Knicks -5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
New York has covered eight of its last 10 home games. The Knicks are well rested having last played on Saturday. They are expected to get back point guard Derrick Rose, too. He had missed New York's last two games with a back injury. Rose isn't as good as when he entered the league with the Bulls because of injuries. However, he's still highly valuable because of his scoring and leadership. New York is 13-10 with him and 1-3 without him. Rose's presence not only gives New York a third scoring option to go with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis, but adds depth to the backcourt where backup point guard Brandon Jennings can come off the bench. The Pacers are 4-10 SU and ATS on the road. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Madison Square Garden. Indiana also carries a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in seven days and second in two nights. The Pacers nipped the Wizards, 107-105, at home Monday night on a short jumper by Thaddeus Young with less than a second left. The Pacers' three best players logged big minutes in that victory. Paul George played more than 40 minutes. Jeff Teague played more than 39 minutes and Young logged more than 37 minutes. The Pacers are short-handed, too, with Monta Ellis out. Indiana has failed to cover 20 of the last 28 times when playing without rest.
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12-18-16 | Raiders -2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
Not only does Oakland hold matchup edges with San Diego all but decimated with injuries, but the Raiders are on extra time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Chargers may have the weakest home field in the league. Mike McCoy isn't likely to return as coach and the team probably is going to leave San Diego. There could be as many Oakland fans here as San Diego spectators. Philip Rivers has lost his top weapons with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead out. The Chargers are down to fifth-string undrafted rookie running back Kenneth Farrow as their main ball carrier. Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 11 times in his last four games as he presses trying to do much to compensate for his team's numerous deficiencies. Derek Carr had problems with an injured finger in Kansas City's cold weather during Oakland's last game. Now, with extra rest and 10 days to heal, Carr should be back to normal. Oakland's offense can take advantage of a Chargers defense that is down two of their run stuffers and two key cornerbacks. San Diego has just six sacks in its last six games. The Raiders have proven themselves on the road under much harsher conditions going 5-1 SU and ATS. Now the Raiders get to play in their normal time zone against a foe they have dominated recently winning the past three times. The Raiders beat the Chargers, 37-29, at San Diego last season after building up a 37-6 lead. The Raiders are much better this season.
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -4.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Not only does Southern Mississippi play in the stronger conference - Conference USA - but they have a huge quarterback edge on Louisiana-Lafayette, a Sun Belt Conference team. Early bowl steam should be respected and the early money has all been on the Golden Eagles. I agree. It would have been nice to lay less than four points here, but Southern Mississippi is at least a touchdown superior to the Ragin' Cajuns. Southern Mississippi wasn't the same team when star quarterback Nick Mullens had to miss two games last month due to a concussion. But the senior returned in the regular-season finale and led the Golden Eagles to a 39-24 victory as 14 1/2-point 'dogs accounting for four touchdowns. Mullens, not Brett Favre, holds the Southern Mississippi record for touchdown passes and passing yards. Mullens can exploit a vulnerable Lafayette secondary. The Golden Eagles also have a 1,321-yard rusher in Ito Smith. Sparked by this duo, the Golden Eagles average 33.2 points a game and rank 24th in yards. Lafayette's ground-oriented offense can't match that. The Ragin' Cajuns average 10 fewer points per game and 110 yards less per contest. Lafayette's big gun on offense is running back Elijah McGuire, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards three straight seasons and scored 52 career touchdowns. Southern Mississippi's defense, though, has the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the country. The Golden Eagles also feature a top defensive lineman in Dylan Bradley. He should be highly effective operating against Lafayette's underclass interior linemen.
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12-14-16 | UC-Irvine v. Nevada -11 | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Nevada Reno has way too much offense and talent for Irvine, which has height and can play defense but is far too limited offensively. The Wolf Pack are averaging 19 more points per game than Irvine. I like Reno coach Eric Musselman. He's proved especially strong in a favorite's role as the Wolf Pack are 14-3-2 ATS the past 19 times they've been chalk. They also are 14-3-1 ATS during their last 18 home games. Cal Irvine has 23 more turnovers than assists. The Anteaters are shooting 41.6 percent from the field despite a tall front line and hit only 31.3 percent of their 3-pointers. Reno does a great job of not fouling. Irvine averages less than 17 free throw attempts per game. Irvine has no backdoor ability to cover if it should fall far behind, which I expect. This shapes up as a blowout win for the Wolf Pack. The opening number is short.
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12-13-16 | Warriors v. Pelicans +10.5 | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
The record shows New Orleans to be 8-17. But the Pelicans are 5-4 when starting point guard Jrue Holiday plays. Holiday returned to the Pelicans' lineup this past Sunday after missing the previous three games and helped New Orleans end a five-game losing with an overtime road victory against Phoenix. Holiday scored 23 in the win. That win and Holiday's return should put the Pelicans in a good spot here. They catch Golden State playing its fifth road game in seven days. The long road trip has taken a toll on Kevin Durant, who has made less than 38 percent of his shots from the floor during the last four games. New Orleans has a frontcourt advantage thanks to Anthony Davis, the best big man in basketball. Davis can really put up monster numbers if Warriors starting center Zaza Pachulia has to miss a third straight game due to a wrist injury. Pachulia does a lot of the dirty work underneath for the Warriors receiving none of the publicity that Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green draw. Golden State doesn't have a good recent history in these type of matchups failing to cover eight of the last nine times when facing a foe with less than a .400 home winning percentage. The Warriors return home following this game to begin a three-game homestand so their focus may not be 100 percent.
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12-11-16 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Knowing they weren't going to beat the Clippers on the road last night, the Pelicans did the smart thing. They rested big man Anthony Davis. Davis should be in for a monster performance against the guard-oriented Suns. New Orleans isn't going to lack for motivation not only looking to put a halt to a losing skid but gain revenge for a 112-111 home overtime loss suffered to Phoenix last month. That may have been the Pelicans' toughest defeat of the season. While New Orleans is playing without rest, the Suns are in action for the fourth time in six days. Phoenix is 3-6 at home and has failed to cover four of its past five games at home. The Suns have been favored four times this season. Not only have they failed to cover each time, but they were blown out in each instance losing to the Kings by 19 points, Nets by 18, 76ers by 15 and Nuggets by six. |
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12-11-16 | Redskins +1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 111 h 50 m | Show |
Washington is clearly the superior team. The Redskins showed that in the team's first meeting back in Week 6 when they outgained the Eagles, 493-239. Washington won 27-20 and the score should not have been that close but the Eagles got two non-offensive touchdowns. Since then the Eagles have gotten worse. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. Philadelphia has allowed 26 or more points in five of its last six games. The Eagles have a terrible secondary and a pass rush that has only managed six sacks in the last six games. Washington has a much better secondary and an explosive offense - which ranks No. 2 in yardage and passing yards - that can take advantage of Philadelphia's many defensive shortcoming. It's a plus if star tight end Jordan Reed plays, but the Redskins have many other receiving weapons, including DeSean Jackson, underrated Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis. The Redskins have won and covered the past four in the series.
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12-10-16 | Michigan +9 v. UCLA | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
UCLA has to deal not only with getting back down from the high of knocking off then-No. 1 Kentucky, but a rust factor, too. The Bruins haven't played since beating the Wildcats a week ago. Michigan is a top-10 defensive club. The Wolverines have proven capable beating Texas. The Bruins are in heady territory. Their youth and maturity could catch up to them here against this well-coached, tough Big Ten team. So I'll take this many points.
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Dallas is lottery-bound. We know that. We also know the Mavericks are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. But the Mavericks still have a number of prideful veterans who are not injured - Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams and Harrison Barnes - and they will be motivated to perform at a high level at home here following an embarrassing 120-89 loss to the Kings two days ago. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle held a team meeting immediately following that game. Carlisle told reporters that the Mavericks' play in the second half of that loss was inexcusable. Now the Mavericks have a chance to make amends against the Pacers, who are 3-7 SU and ATS on the road and playing their fifth consecutive road game. The Pacers are off a 109-94 victory against the Suns on Wednesday. Indiana is 2-8 ATS following a victory. The Pacers could be distracted, too, returning home immediately following this matchup to host Portland on Saturday. The Pacers rank 25th defensively so points shouldn't come so hard for the Mavericks. It's a big drop down in class, too, for the Mavericks. During their last nine games, the Mavericks had had to play the Spurs twice, Clippers, Cavaliers, Hornets twice and Bulls.
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12-05-16 | Blazers v. Bulls -4 | Top | 112-110 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The Bulls are proven at home. The Trail Blazers have proven to struggle on the road. |
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 44 h 58 m | Show |
Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +7 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington -7.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game. |
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12-01-16 | CS Sacramento v. Pacific -10 | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 103 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. |
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11-30-16 | Spurs -8.5 v. Mavs | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I want San Antonio going for me after the Spurs played their worst game of the season in a 95-83 home loss to the lowly Magic Tuesday night. That loss snapped a nine-game San Antonio win streak and can't make Gregg Popovich too happy. Neither can the fact that the Spurs had their lowest-scoring game of the season and committed a season-high 19 turnovers.
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11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. |
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11-27-16 | Titans -3 v. Bears | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 136 h 40 m | Show |
The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot. |
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11-26-16 | Oregon -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. |
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11-25-16 | Hawks +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 68-95 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My interest always is raised when I see the better team getting points. That's the case in this matchup. It's a series the Hawks have dominated beating the Jazz nine of the past 10 times. |
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11-25-16 | Boise State v. Air Force +9 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago. |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2.5 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. |
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11-23-16 | Spurs -5 v. Hornets | Top | 119-114 | Push | 0 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
The Spurs have won six in a row, but Gregg Popovich isn't happy calling out his players after they barely beat injury-racked Dallas, 96-91, two nights ago. |
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11-21-16 | Raptors +9 v. Clippers | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
It's a mistake for any team to lay this many points to Toronto. The Raptors did play last night losing in controversial fashion to the Kings in Sacramento. They are in a bitter mood following that loss when the referees waved off a game-tying shot by Terrence Ross at the buzzer. This is just a short trip from Sacramento to LA for the Raptors. |
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11-20-16 | Patriots -11 v. 49ers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 22 m | Show |
I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. |
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11-18-16 | UNLV +28.5 v. Boise State | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 58 h 9 m | Show |
Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez. |
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11-17-16 | Connecticut -7 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference. |
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11-16-16 | Warriors -5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
The Warriors have won four in a row against the Raptors and the spot is ripe for them to continue that winning streak. |
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11-15-16 | CS Bakersfield +17.5 v. Arizona | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. |
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11-10-16 | Browns +10 v. Ravens | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games. |
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11-09-16 | Rockets v. Spurs -8 | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
The Rockets are playing in their fifth straight road game and just beat Washington last night. The Spurs haven't played in four days. I'd rather have Gregg Popovich than any other coach with extra prep time. The Spurs have used this time to get healthier. |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. |
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11-06-16 | Flames v. Ducks -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 155 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Ducks have just dominated the Flames in Anaheim beating them a mind-boggling 23 times in a row and 28 of the past 29. The Ducks defeated the Flames at home last season by five, three and two goals. |
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11-06-16 | Titans +5 v. Chargers | Top | 35-43 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. |
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11-05-16 | Alabama v. LSU +8.5 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. |
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11-04-16 | Spurs -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Revenge and Gregg Popovich. That says it all here. I want the Spurs going for me and I'll lay a short road price to get them after Utah dealt San Antonio a 106-91 loss this past Tuesday at San Antonio. |
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11-01-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Not surprisingly it is talking a while for the Warriors to get in sync with newcomer Kevin Durant on board. Golden State is 0-3 ATS beating the Pelicans by eight and Suns by six each on the road in its last two games. This is the last stop on the Warriors' three game road trip. They host Oklahoma City on Thursday, which is a much bigger game for Durant going against his former team. |
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10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -102 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -5.5 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 147 h 36 m | Show |
It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. |
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10-29-16 | Nets v. Bucks -6 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
Milwaukee is likely looking at being 0-3 if it loses this game. So motivation should be high. The Bucks' starters didn't play well with the exception of Giannis Antetokounmpo when they lost at home in their opener, 107-96, to Charlotte this past Wednesday. |
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10-29-16 | Michigan v. Michigan State +24.5 | Top | 32-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 19 m | Show |
This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row. |
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10-28-16 | Magic v. Pistons -4 | Top | 82-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
Detroit has won and covered in its last six games versus the Magic, winning those games by an average of 15.5 points per game. |
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10-27-16 | Wizards +4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
The Wizards are dangerous when motivated and their star backcourt is healthy. Both factors are in play here. |
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10-26-16 | Heat +4 v. Magic | Top | 108-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Miami has won six of its last seven season-openers, including the past five. That's a nice history going into this matchup, but no longer do the Heat have any of their Big Three as LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all gone. |
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10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
Oddsmakers are high on Utah projecting the Jazz to win 47 1/2 games. Utah was 40-42 last season. Utah could very well be improved, but this isn't the time to jump on the Jazz. |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. |
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10-22-16 | TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -3 | Top | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 125 h 45 m | Show |
This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs +1.5 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State +12 v. Colorado | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are. |
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10-13-16 | Broncos -3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -123 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +4 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 140 h 15 m | Show |
The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points. |
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10-08-16 | BYU v. Michigan State -5.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. |
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10-07-16 | Saskatchewan +7 v. Ottawa | Top | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
Forget the records here that show Ottawa leading the Eastern Division with a 6-6 record and Saskatchewan last in the Western Division at 3-10. |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 56 m | Show |
Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -120 | 122 h 31 m | Show |
Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. |
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09-27-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Sitting one game behind the Giants for the second wild-card spot in the National League, the Cardinals desperately need to win this home game. The Reds embarrassed the Cardinals, 15-2, on Monday night. |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 109 h 50 m | Show |
I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins. |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Baylor | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 32 m | Show |
I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team. |
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09-23-16 | USC v. Utah -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 1 m | Show |
The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -125 | 154 h 58 m | Show |
This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 110 h 21 m | Show |
I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher. |
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09-16-16 | Montreal v. Hamilton -10 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
These two teams met two months ago and Hamilton buried Montreal, 31-7, despite not playing an "A" game, or having quarterback Zach Collaros. |
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09-11-16 | Vikings -3 v. Titans | Top | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 1078 h 8 m | Show |
Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. |
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09-11-16 | Bears +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -110 | 1078 h 51 m | Show |
I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. |