Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-19-22 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 48-53 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years. Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game. Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game. Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances. New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor. |
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03-18-22 | Colgate +7.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means. Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble. Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten. The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that. |
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03-16-22 | Dayton v. Toledo | Top | 74-55 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT. Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored. Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio. |
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03-15-22 | Cleveland State +12.5 v. Xavier | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. This matchup is a perfect example. Xavier dropped six of its last seven games, including an overtime loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament. The result is no NCAA Tournament bid for the Musketeers. That's a huge disappointment for Xavier. Cleveland State doesn't feel that way about competing in the NIT. The Vikings are anxious to show their wares. They are a solid team that shared the Horizon League regular season title. The Vikings, though, were upset in the league tournament by eventual champion Wright State. The Vikings average 75.6 points. Xavier's defense collapsed, giving up an average of 83.4 points during the last seven games. Xavier has been terrible as a favorite and when playing at home. The Musketeers are 3-10 ATS as chalk and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 home contests. |
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03-11-22 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State +4.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State. All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points. Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed. |
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03-11-22 | Pistons +14 v. Celtics | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Boston playing well. But so is Detroit except the Pistons don't get nearly the attention the Celtics do. The Celtics are looking for their sixth consecutive victory. The Pistons are looking for their 10th straight point spread cover. Cade Cunningham is making a spirited bid to earn Rookie of the Year honors scoring 20 or more points in his last five games. The Pistons upset the Celtics, 112-111, at Boston on Feb. 16 as 12-point 'dogs. Now the line is even higher. That was the seventh straight time Detroit has covered against Boston. The Celtics host the Mavericks on Sunday in a much more challenging game. So a Boston letdown/look ahead situation could exist. Even if the Celtics take this matchup seriously, the Pistons are playing well enough and the line is inflated enough to back Detroit. |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL +9 v. Duke | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday. This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning. Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January. |
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03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
It's getting to the crucial stage for the Spurs. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row while falling 3 1/2 games out of postseason contention. San Antonio has played nine of its last 10 games on the road, though. This is the first of seven straight home contests. They are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times when favored. The Lakers are off a satisfying, 124-116, home win against the Warriors this past Saturday. LeBron James scored 56 points in that game. James is a freak of nature, but he is 37. How much will he have left for this game? Prior to defeating the Warriors, the Lakers had gone 1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS. The Spurs have a solid bench and rate a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich. |
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03-06-22 | Albany +5 v. Hartford | Top | 49-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. |
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03-05-22 | UNLV v. New Mexico +4 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament. It's a flat spot for the Rebels. Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season. The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark. |
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03-04-22 | Richmond +4 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus. St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder. Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2. The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record. |
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03-02-22 | Presbyterian v. Campbell -2.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup. Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12. The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. |
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03-01-22 | Warriors +1 v. Wolves | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Minnesota is much improved this season. That's evident by the oddsmaker opening this game in the pick range. But I really want Golden State in this situation. The Warriors are coming off a frustrating, 107-101, home loss to the Mavericks from Sunday. Golden State let a 21-point lead slip in that game. Needless to say, Steve Kerr was not happy. The Timberwolves are off a satisfying, 127-122, road win against the Cavaliers last night. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. |
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03-01-22 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -14.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland. Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss. Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday. |
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02-28-22 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +2 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog. The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense. Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West. The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. |
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02-26-22 | Arizona v. Colorado +10.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year. The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times. |
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02-25-22 | San Jose State +22.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State. San Jose State is last in the conference. So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich. The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games. The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th. San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog. The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests. |
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02-24-22 | Idaho State v. Northern Arizona -3.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home. Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage. The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games. |
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02-23-22 | Chattanooga -3 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31. The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game. Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall. The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests. Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game. The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory. |
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02-22-22 | Michigan State +7 v. Iowa | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss. Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games. This has contributed to an inflated line, though. Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all. |
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02-21-22 | Penn State v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road. Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions. The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups. Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times. The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point. |
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02-20-22 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Can the Wolverines win road games against Iowa and Wisconsin in a span of four days? I say no. Michigan upset the Hawkeyes this past Thursday, 84-79. Now, though, the Wolverines draw the 15th-ranked Badgers also on the road. Wisconsin gives up the fewest turnovers in the nation at 8.6. The Badgers' traditionally strong defense is coming on, too, giving up an average of 63.2 points during the last four games. Michigan has faced five ranked teams this season - and lost four of those five games. |
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02-19-22 | DePaul +9 v. Seton Hall | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
This point spread is way out of whack. DePaul beat Seton Hall the first time these teams met. The Blue Demons have a better point spread record covering 58 percent, shoot the ball better than Seton Hall and have the best player on the court in Javon Freeman-Liberty. Seton Hall ranks 257th in field goal percentage. The Pirates are 4-4 since losing their second-leading scorer, Bruce Aiken. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. DePaul upset Xavier as a 14-point 'dog and lost by three points to Providence in overtime as a nine-point 'dog in its last two road games. Freeman-Liberty is one of the better players in the Big East Conference averaging 20.5 points. The Blue Demons defeated the Pirates, 96-92, on Jan. 13 as a 6 1/2-point 'dog. The Blue Demons certainly are capable of hanging around if not pulling another straight-up upset win.
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02-18-22 | Ohio +1.5 v. Kent State | Top | 52-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Kent State is an upper level Mid-American Conference team. But Ohio leads the MAC and is better than the Golden Flashes. So I'm not buying Kent State opening as the favorite. The Bobcats are 22-4, including 8-3 on the road. They have a better road mark than Kent State's home record. The Golden Flashes are 16-9, 8-4 at home. Ohio took care of Kent State, 80-72, back on Jan. 7. Bobcats star Mark Sears had a big game with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor while grabbing six rebounds and dishing off three assists. Sears averages 20.1 points, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. He's a tremendous shooter. Ohio ranks 15th in the country in turnover margin and first in the MAC at plus 4.23. Kent State can't match Sears, nor Ohio's ball protection. Ohio is ranked 87th in the latest NET rankings. Kent State is ranked 140th. |
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02-17-22 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
After suffering their worst loss in seven years losing by 48 points to the Celtics this past Tuesday, I see the 76ers coming out super intense against Milwaukee. The 76ers have been strong on the road going 18-10. They are 10-2 ATS following a loss. Philadelphia also has covered its past five away games. Milwaukee has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times it has been a home favorite. The Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo back. But the Bucks still are playing short-handed with several rotation players out, including Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews and Grayson Allen questionable. |
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02-16-22 | UNLV v. Fresno State -6 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
I don't see another Fresno State loss happening here with the Bulldogs home to the Rebels, who are 3-8 ATS during their past 11 road contests. Fresno State has covered nine of its last 11 home games. UNLV has been hot from beyond the arc lately. Don't look for that to continue, though, against a Fresno State defense that ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 57.9 points. The Bulldogs shoot better from the floor than the Rebels and also are the superior free throw shooting team. Fresno State beat UNLV, 73-68, at UNLV on Jan. 14. That was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings the Bulldogs have defeated the Rebels. |
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02-15-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are playing the best basketball of any team winning and covering eight of their last nine games. All of their victories during this span have come by at least seven points. Memphis has had two full days to prepare for this revenge matchup having last played on Saturday. The Pelicans won the first meeting, 112-101, at home on Nov. 13. It's going to be difficult for the inconsistent Pelicans to duplicate their ''A'' performance of last night when they buried the Raptors, 120-90, at home shooting a season-best 58.4 percent from the floor. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a home 'dog. Memphis is 14-3 ATS the past 17 times when favored.
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02-10-22 | Hofstra +1.5 v. Drexel | Top | 83-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
These teams met on Jan. 17. Hofstra was an eight-point home favorite and beat Drexel, 71-68. Hofstra is the fourth-best free throw shooting team in the nation at 80 percent. The Pride shot just 10 free throws in that game and also made only 4 of 16 3-pointers. Hofstra is 14-9 and in third place in the Colonial Athletic Association at 7-4. Drexel is 11-10 and 6-5 in the CAA. There is a point spread difference of around 10 points in this game compared to the earlier meeting. Hofstra is the better team so I'm attracted to taking this many points. The Pride just defeated UNC-Wilmington in its last game three days ago. Drexel went against Wilmington on Jan. 31 and lost, 70-63. |
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02-09-22 | Tulane +10 v. Memphis | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
Memphis has tremendous talent. But the Tigers are poorly-coached, one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation and are terrible against spread going 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games. Tulane upset the Tigers, 85-84, as a 6-point home 'dog back on Dec. 29 and the Green Wave definitely can hang within single digits in this rematch. The Green Wave are a solid 7-4 in the American Athletic Conference, good for third place behind only Houston and SMU. Tulane has covered five of its last seven road games and is 3-1 in its last four games. Despite its talent, Memphis is horrendous from the free throw line making less than 66 percent. The Tigers rank 333rd in free throw percentage. The Tigers have failed to cover five of the last six times when laying 8 or more points.
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02-09-22 | Spurs +6 v. Cavs | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Cleveland may appear to be in better current form than the Spurs. But the Spurs have played a much more difficult schedule recently and are in an excellent situational spot here. San Antonio defeated Houston in its last game. That was this past Friday. The Spurs were 1-4 entering that matchup. But their previous five opponents were the Heat, Warriors, Suns, Bulls and Grizzlies. Cleveland is 6-2 in its last eight games. The Cavaliers' last five games, though, have come against weak opponents - Pacers, Hornets, Rockets, Pelicans and Pistons. The Cavaliers acquired Caris LeVert, but still may be without underrated Darius Garland, who has missed the last four games because of a sore back. The Spurs will be playing for the first time in five days. That's more than ample time for Gregg Popovich to come up with a strong game plan for this specific opponent not to mention ensure a lot of energy from the Spurs. San Antonio is 18-8 ATS the past 26 times when playing on 3 or more days rest for a long-term mark of 69 percent. San Antonio also has covered nine of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been favored. |
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02-08-22 | Utah State v. Wyoming -1.5 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
Both Utah State and Wyoming are playing well. But the Cowboys are the superior team and are at home with a short point spread. Wyoming is a perfect 10-0 at home. The Cowboys have outscored opponents by an average of 20.3 points at home. The Cowboys average 84.1 points at home. That's 12 points higher than what Utah State averages on the road. The Aggies have won five in a row so perhaps that's why the spread is shorter than I anticipated. However, four of those victories were achieved at home. The Aggies also played some weak competition during this time frame posting wins against UNLV, San Jose State and Air Force. Utah State has a losing road mark. Wyoming is 10-1 in its last 11 games and 19-3 overall. The Cowboys trail Boise State by one-half game for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. They can't afford a loss here especially following their tremendous, 61-59, road upset win against Fresno State this past Sunday night. The Cowboys feature two of the best players in the conference, Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. |
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02-07-22 | Virginia +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
Duke is coming on. I get that. I also understand Virginia is in the midst of a down season just 14-9 and that's playing a less than stellar schedule. But I'm not going to turn down this many points with the Cavaliers. They have shown signs lately of picking up their game, winning three of their last four. This includes an impressive victory against Miami, 71-58, this past Saturday. The Cavaliers have a history of playing Duke close with five of the past seven meetings decided by one or two points. The Blue Devils just nipped the Cavaliers, 66-65, at Duke last season. Virginia desperately needs a good performance here as the Cavaliers are in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. Duke may lack Virginia's motivation coming off a 20-point beatdown of arch-rival North Carolina this past Saturday night. Virginia remains well-coached, disciplined and respectable on defense.
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02-06-22 | Wyoming +3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
These are two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State has the sixth-best defense in the country. But Wyoming is the more complete team. Fresno State also is coming off two easy matchups. The Cowboys have won nine of their last 10 games. They are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 road games, including covering the past four. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points pre game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have one of the best players in the conference, Orlando Robinson. But Wyoming has two of the three best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. |
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02-05-22 | Bucks v. Blazers +10.5 | Top | 137-108 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I find this to be a buy-low spot on the Trail Blazers following Portland's, 96-93, home loss to the lowly Thunder last night. That was the Trail Blazers' first home game since Jan. 26. I expect the Trail Blazers' concentration and focus to be much better against the Bucks. Portland had just made a trade the day before the Thunder game, too. I also expect Portland's 3-point shooting to be back on track. The Trail Blazers shot 40 percent from the floor against the Thunder. Far worse was their horrendous shooting from beyond the arc. Portland could connect on only 6-of-33 3-point shots for 18 percent. The Trail Blazers rank 11th in the NBA in 3-point shooting at 35.6 percent. The Trail Blazers obviously are missing Damian Lillard. But CJ McCollum has returned to the lineup and Anfernee Simons continues to play at a high level. So Portland's backcourt remains strong. The Bucks play at the Clippers on Sunday. So if the Trail Blazers trail by double-digits late - which I am not anticipating - the backdoor could swing open because the Bucks may be resting starters knowing they have three more road games during the next five days. |
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02-05-22 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia +6 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
There aren't many easy games in the Big 12 Conference. And this one isn't going to be easy for Texas Tech especially after the Red Raiders won an emotional, 77-64, home game against 23rd-ranked Texas this past Tuesday. West Virginia is in a desperate situation with six straight losses and possibly missing its best player, point guard Taz Sherman. He's in concussion protocol and questionable for this game. With or without Sherman, though, I like West Virginia in this spot. The Mountaineers played well in their last game, an 81-77 road loss to Baylor this past Monday. They shot a season-best 54.2 percent from the field. Look for the Mountaineers to give Texas Tech their best punch. I doubt the Red Raiders can produce another ''A'' game after beating Texas. |
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02-04-22 | Toledo v. Ball State +8.5 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Should be a great game: Ohio at Toledo to decide the Mid-American Conference and No. 1 conference tournament seed. That game, though, is Tuesday. Before that Toledo is being asked to cover what I see as an inflated road number against Ball State. The Rockets have won nine in a row. But this definitely is a look-ahead spot for them, which could produce a flat effort. Ball State had won and covered three in a row until getting buried by Ohio in its last game. The Cardinals average a healthy 74 points a game. The Cardinals have covered eight of their last 11 games. The Rockets have allowed 173 3-point field goals. Ball State has made 180 3-pointers, ranking 69th in 3-point accuracy. The combination of their 3-point shooting, home-court and catching Toledo in a flat spot should mean a cover for the Cardinals. |
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02-04-22 | Rockets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 106-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
I really hope Dejounte Murray plays. But even if he doesn't the Spurs have enough depth and a huge edge in coaching to cover this short number against the Rockets. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row. The Rockets enter San Antonio fat and happy after a 115-104 home victory against Cleveland this past Wednesday. Houston has lost its previous four games. The Rockets are 6-17 ATS the past 23 times as a 'dog. They are 2-6-1 ATS during their past nine meetings against the Spurs. Houston was no match for San Antonio when the teams just met on Jan. 25. The Spurs buried the Rockets, 134-104, dominating the paint with 82 points. |
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02-01-22 | Texas +5.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
Every point figures to matter in this matchup of elite defenses. Texas has the No. 1 defense in the nation holding foes to 54.5 points. Defense is a Chris Beard trademark as Texas Tech well knows about its former coach. The Red Raiders allow the 19th-fewest points in the country. So I'm attracted to the road 'dog receiving this many points. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last 11 times. I trust Beard's defense and the Longhorns' motion offense to find some open looks from 3-point range. I also trust the Longhorns to control their turnover count facing Texas Tech's full-court pressure. It comes down to what should be a low-scoring matchup, as the oddsmaker anticipates, where Texas definitely can stay within two possessions. |
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01-31-22 | Warriors v. Rockets +10.5 | Top | 122-108 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The teams just met 10 days ago in Golden State. The Rockets nearly pulled the upset losing, 105-103. That victory was the start of a five-game win streak for the Warriors. Golden State has won three of those games by a total of eight points. The Warriors are off a big emotional win against the Nets from two days ago. They are at the Spurs on Tuesday in a revenge spot. So this looms as a potential flat spot for the Warriors, who remain without Draymond Green. Houston only has played twice since losing to the Warriors 10 days ago. The Rockets' last game was this past Friday. That should ensure a rested, full effort and an added bonus if Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood are able to return to the lineup. |
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01-29-22 | Virginia +4.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
Notre Dame is hot, winning nine of its last 10 games. But Virginia is just the team to beat the Irish. The Cavaliers are a bad matchup for Notre Dame as evidenced by Virginia defeating the Irish 16 of 18 times in the series, including the past six times. Notre Dame relies on its perimeter shooting especially from long range. The Irish rank 27th in 3-point percentage. Notre Dame is very much a rhythm team. Virginia disrupts that rhythm. No team plays slower than the Cavaliers. Virginia's defense is at its best clamping down on open shots, especially catch-and-shoot 3-point shots like Notre Dame likes to launch. On the flip side, Virginia guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman are adept at patiently beating half-court sets. Given four days to prepare, Virginia's elite coach Tony Bennett should have an excellent game plan. Virginia is 5-3 SU and ATS in its last eight road/neutral site games. Notre Dame is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games versus foes who have an above .500 road mark. |
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01-28-22 | Clippers v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Kudos to the Clippers for coming back from a 35-point deficit against the Wizards to pull out a victory three days ago. That was the second-largest comeback in NBA history. Kudos again to the Clippers to beat the Magic two days ago in an obvious letdown spot after trailing by 14 points against Orlando. Now, though, the Clippers step way up in class against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference - Miami. The Heat are 17-5 at home this season. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. LA is 10-13 on the road even with its consecutive away victories versus the Wizards and Magic. This marks the Clippers' third game in four days and sixth road game in 10 days. The Heat have taken off now that Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are back in the lineup joining Jimmy Butler. The Clippers are missing their two best players, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Also out is their third-leading scorer, Marcus Morris. I see a double-digit Heat victory. |
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01-27-22 | East Carolina +13.5 v. Memphis | Top | 54-71 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
Penny Hardaway was one of my favorite NBA players when he played for the Orlando Magic. But as a head college basketball coach, Hardaway has to rank among the bottom 10. He actually could be in the argument as the worst coach. Yes Hardaway's Memphis team has had injuries. But the Tigers have underachieved so much they may not even make the NCAA Tournament. Memphis 5-12-1 ATS on the season. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Until beating Tulsa in their last game, the Tigers had lost three in a row. East Carolina is off an embarrassing, 79-36, road loss to Houston this past Saturday. I find this line inflated because of that loss. Before that defeat to the Cougars, East Carolina had lost in overtime as an underdog to Central Florida and upset Memphis, 72-71, as a 7-point home 'dog. That was less than two weeks ago. Memphis shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while East Carolina made 40 percent of its field goals. Yet the Pirates still pulled it out. The Pirates may be without third-leading scorer Brandon Suggs, who scored the game-winner against Memphis in the first meeting. The Tigers, though, are far more banged-up. They will be without their leading scorer, Deandre Williams, and likely NBA lottery pick and leading team rebounder Jalen Duren. He is questionable with a hand injury. Also out are Landers Nolley II and Jayden Hardaway. Nolley leads the Tigers in assists. |
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01-27-22 | Lakers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
No player is performing better lately than Joel Embiid, who has scored at least 38 points and pulled down 12 rebounds in four straight games. The 76ers catch the Lakers playing their fourth road game in six days. The Lakers welcomed Anthony Davis back with a 106-96 victory against the Nets two days ago. Davis, though, is working his way into the lineup. I don't see the Lakers being able to sustain that momentum against this tough opponent. LA is 7-20 AT following a cover. The Lakers are 2-1 on their current road trip having opened with a victory against the Magic, However, during their previous four away contests the Lakers lost to the Heat by six points, were blown out by the Nuggets by 37 points, lost to the Kings by nine and fell to the Grizzlies by five points. |
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01-26-22 | Kings +8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The Kings should be fired-up after being embarrassed, 128-75, by the Celtics last night. The Kings ended up playing all 13 of their rostered players. No Sacramento player reached the 30-minute mark. So fatigue should not be a factor. Prior to that loss to the Celtics, the Kings had gone a respectable 2-4 with their four defeats occurring by a combined 15 points, which is less than four a game. The Hawks have not been good as home favorites either, failing to cover 11 of the last 14 times in that role. There's a chance the Kings get back injured De'Aaron Fox, who I consider their best player. He's been out two games with a sore left ankle. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays, but I'm not counting on that. |
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01-24-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
New Orleans has been strong at home winning and covering seven of its last nine. The Pelicans catch a schedule break here hosting a short-handed and tired Indiana squad that is concluding a five-game road trip. The Pacers are playing for the fifth time in eight days. They are minus their two best players with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolmb Brogdon both out. They've been without Caris LeVert, maybe their third-best player, too. He's questionable. Those are Indiana's top three scorers. The Pelicans have held five of their last seven opponents to 105 points or fewer. New Orleans enters this home matchup on a winning note beating the Knicks, 102-91, this past Thursday in New York. That was a big confidence builder for the Pelicans after they were blown out during the first two games of their road trip by the Nets and Celtics. Even if Ingram is out, I still like the Pelicans. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -114 | 66 h 1 m | Show |
Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night? I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion. Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games. The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents. Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble. The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul. |
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01-21-22 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 86-74 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
These are two of the top 14 teams in the nation, according to the latest The Associated Press rankings. But we're getting a buy-low spot on Michigan State since the Spartans were upset by Northwestern at home in their last game this past Saturday, while the Badgers just defeated Northwestern, 82-76, three days ago. Michigan State had won nine in a row prior to losing to the Wildcats. Wisconsin is riding a seven-game win streak. The Badgers are playing extremely well. But the Spartans should never be underestimated. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers nipped the Spartans, 64-63, at home last season. Michigan State is 7-3-1 ATS versus foes that have a winning percentage above .600. Both teams give up less than 66 points a game. The Spartans rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage, though, while Wisconsin is 217th. I see Michigan State winning this game so getting this many points is a nice bonus. |
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01-20-22 | Pelicans v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
The oddsmaker is downgrading the Knicks because they've lost two straight home games, sleepwalking through a loss to the Hornets during an early start on Martin Luther King Day and then blowing a late lead in a 112-110 loss to the much improved Timberwolves on Tuesday. Prior to those defeats, though, New York had won five consecutive games at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout wins against the Mavericks and Spurs. The Pelicans are a drop in class for New York. The Knicks are a much stronger defensive club than New Orleans giving up six fewer points per game. New Orleans is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five road contests. The Pelicans are averaging under 100 points during their last three games. |
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01-18-22 | Wolves v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
I don't think the Knicks should be a home 'dog to the Timberwolves. New York couldn't get awake for yesterday's early-start Martin Luther King home game against the Hornets losing by 10 points after trailing by as many as 23 points. Look for the Knicks to be more awake for this game after Monday's embarrassment. Prior to that loss to the Hornets, the Knicks had won five straight at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout victories against the Mavericks and Spurs. The Timberwolves are looking good to the oddsmaker right now because they just rolled past the short-handed Warriors, 119-99, at home this past Sunday night. Keep in mind, though, that before that victory Minnesota had lost and failed to cover consecutive road games against the Pelicans and Grizzlies. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs -8.5 | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 110 h 19 m | Show |
I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily. Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes. The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury. Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower. The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line. The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog. |
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01-14-22 | Cavs v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
The timing is right to buy low on the Spurs in this home spot. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mode saddled with a four-game losing streak. The Spurs are off a 128-124 loss to the Rockets two days ago, which opened their seven-game homestand. Dejounte Murray could be the most underrated player in the NBA. The Spurs certainly are capable of winning this game straight-up. There's the chance their rotation could be bolstered if Derrick White and Doug McDermott return today from COVID-19 protocol. The Cavaliers are much improved. But they are far from elite. Their 111-91 victory against Utah on Wednesday comes with an asterisk as the Jazz were missing several players, including their star center and key to their team, Rudy Gobert. This marks Cleveland's fifth road game in eight days. The Cavaliers close their road trip tomorrow at Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers had opened their road swing beating shorthanded Portland. They then lost by 14 to the Warriors, nipped the lowly Kings by one point before knocking off Utah. Cleveland is 4-5 in its last nine games, 2-6-1 ATS. |
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01-11-22 | DePaul +7 v. Marquette | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Marquette isn't as bad as it looked early in the Big East Conference, but the Golden Eagles aren't as good as their recent performances - blowout victories against Georgetown and Providence - may indicate. On the flip side, DePaul isn't as bad as its four-game losing streak may appear. The Blue Demons have lost their last two games to Villanova and St. John's. Certainly no shame in that. Overall, DePaul is 9-5 while Marquette is 10-6. So there's line value with DePaul. The Blue Demons also match up well to Marquette because of their height and superior rebounding. The Golden Eagles give up a lot of easy inside shots. The Blue Demons are the 17th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation. The Golden Eagles can't get anything going in transition without controlling the boards. Marquette hasn't been good as chalk either, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when favored. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years. I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season. The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup. Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return. |
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01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 123-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Kudos to the Heat for beating the Trail Blazers, 115-109, this past Wednesday in their last game. However, I don't see the Heat keeping up with the Suns today. This is Miami's fifth of a six-game road trip and the team has 12 players on its illness/injury report list, including Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile the Suns are expected to get reinforced with Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee. All are off the COVID-19 list. Ayton is the Suns' leading rebounder and No. 2 scorer. The Suns own the best record in the NBA at 30-8. They are playing well with three straight wins and covers, winning by an average of 22 points during this span. The Suns shouldn't lack intensity since they won't play again until Tuesday and won't be home again until Jan. 22. |
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01-08-22 | Northern Iowa +6 v. Missouri State | Top | 85-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Northern Iowa has looked good in its last two games, blowout victories against Evansville and Valparaiso. The Panthers have the outside shooting, especially from 3-point range, to hang tight with high-scoring Missouri State, which has a below average 3-point defense. Northern Iowa has dominated the series winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including six of the past seven. The Panthers have the frontcourt size to win the rebounding battle, which would prove pivotal. |
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01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | Top | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Butler is being too undervalued here after looking bad during the second half of its, 71-56, home loss to Seton Hall this past Tuesday. The 'dog has covered four of the past five times in this series. Xavier has to deal with a rust factor having not played since Dec. 21. Butler is the 31st-ranked defensive team in the country. This figures to be a low-possession type game where every point matters. That's evident by the low total. I can't see Xavier producing an ''A'' game, which will be needed to cover this mispriced point spread. |
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
The dynamics are in place for Indiana to beat Ohio State in this marquee Big Ten matchup. The Hooisers are home following a 61-58 road loss to Penn State this past Sunday. Indiana is 9-0 at Assembly Hall with seven of those victories occurring by double-digits. Ohio State got past Nebraska, 87-79, in overtime this past Sunday. That was the Buckeyes' first game since Dec. 11 because of COVID-19 issues. Indiana is a bad matchup for Ohio State at this stage of the Buckeyes' season as they try to round back into shape. Indiana has a size advantage and should control the boards especially if Kyle Young, the Buckeyes' top defensive rebounder, can't play after missing the Nebraska game due to illness not related to COVID. |
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01-04-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +8 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
I'm expecting a good performance from the Pelicans here now that their two best players, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas, have returned to the lineup. Both played last night in a 115-104 home loss to the Jazz. Each was rusty, not shooting well. The rust should be off now. |
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01-03-22 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The Nuggets, like most NBA teams, are dealing with COVID issues. But they still have Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon just returned to the lineup following a hamstring injury. Denver also catches Dallas in a vulnerable spot. So I'm going to go ahead and take the points with the road 'dog. The Mavericks got Luka Doncic back in their 95-86 road win against the Thunder on Sunday. Doncic had missed 10 games. He was playing for the first time in 23 days, logging 31 minutes wearing a knee brace. Not surprisingly, he felt sore after the game. So Mavs coach Jason Kidd has to be careful how he uses Doncic in this back-to-back spot. The Nuggets are the more rested team. This is their second game in six days. Dallas is in action for the fifth time in eight days. The Mavericks just concluded a five-game road trip so their concentration level could be off returning home following the holidays. Dallas hasn't been a good spread home team failing to cover in 14 of its last 20 home games. |
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01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers. Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Raptors were one of many NBA teams ravaged by COVID. But now they should be back at nearly full strength getting back Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes. That's a combined scoring mark of nearly 55 points. These key cogs will join Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr. and Malachi Flynn, who returned in the Raptors' last game three days ago, a 114-109 home loss to the 76ers. The Raptors are rejuvenated now and should be sky high being home to take on the Clippers, who are in a flat spot after beating the Celtics, 91-82, on the road two days ago. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS following a point spread cover. The Clippers are minus their two best players with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both out. They also are missing Nicholas Batum and possibly Reggie Jackson. The Clippers have yet to get it together this season. They were 1-5 before upsetting the Celtics. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too. The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Nevada faced a situational challenge for this Quick Lane Bowl with the game being played in Detroit. Another break for Western Michigan is the 8 a.m. West Coast start time. Nevada is used to playing its games late in the afternoon, or at night. But these situational disadvantages are nothing for the Wolf Pack compared to them losing nearly 20 players to opt outs or transfers. The list of those out for Nevada, include their star QB, Carson Strong, star tight end, Cole Turner, along with their three best wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen. The Wolf Pack have nothing left of their passing attack facing a Western Michigan defense that ranked in the top 30 in total defense. Nevada doesn't have a reliable ground attack to fall back on either since it averaged fewer than three yards per carry. The Broncos have a balanced offense that ranked 15th in the nation in total yards. Kaleb Eleby is one of the better QB's in the MAC and Skyy Moore was one of the top wide receivers in the conference.
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12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 58 m | Show |
Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week. Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons. Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season. I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell. San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years. The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team. |
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12-20-21 | Thunder +9 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is the revenge game of the year for Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies broke an NBA record for largest victory margin when they buried the Thunder, 152-179, at home on Dec. 2. The Thunder surely will be highly motivated. They have some confidence, too, after nipping the Clippers, 104-103, this past Saturday. Lugentz Dort, one of the more underrated players in the league, is back for the Thunder after being out with an ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times as an underdog. Memphis could be coming back to earth after falling, 105-100, to the Trail Blazers on Sunday. The Grizzlies were 10-1 going into that game. Memphis still is without injured Ja Morant. This will be the Grizzlies' fourth game in six days, too. So there's a fatigue issue with them. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons +10 v. 49ers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -117 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role. The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games. Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given. San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this. |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer. The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. Now comes the rematch where if the Chargers win again they would tie the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West Division. Not going to happen, though. The Chiefs will win and cover this short spread. I'm very confident writing this. Why? Kansas City is playing its best ball and the Chargers will be missing at least one key player. I have full confidence in Patrick Mahomes, who is rounding back into his superstar form, and is aided not only by star receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but a finally-healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chargers have given up an average of 26.1 points during their last nine games. They rank 31st in run defense so Edwards-Helaire could produce a big game. The Chiefs are peaking, unlike when they met the Chargers back in late September. Kansas City has won six in a row, the last four by an average of 21.7 points. No team has produced more than 17 points on the Chiefs during Kansas City's last six games. The Chiefs have allowed exactly nine points in each of their last three games. Linebacker Melvin Ingram has been one of the reasons for the Chiefs' defensive turnaround. He played for the Chargers from 2017-2020. He knows them well. Remember the name Trey Pipkins III. Who? He's a little used back-up offensive lineman for the Chargers. He's going to start at left tackle - yes the spot where Herbert's blindside is - replacing standout rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater, who is on the COVID-19 reserve list. Pipkins has played only 27 offensive snaps this season. Usually being the home team for the Thursday night game is a big factor. The Chargers, however, don't have much of a home field advantage because they lack fan support in LA at SoFi Stadium. The short week hurts the Chargers on the injury front. Not only is Slater out, but star running back Austin Ekeler (knee), safety Derwin James (hamstring) and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (hamstring) are all questionable. James is the Chargers' second-leading tackler. |
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12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks +2 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Surprised the Bucks are a home 'dog to the Pacers? Don't be. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out and Khris Middleton also may miss this game because of a knee injury suffered against the Celtics this past Monday. Still, I want the Bucks going for me. The Bucks are off a bad 117-103 loss to the Celtics. They lost that game with Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Milwaukee has a deep bench that can withstand its two best players being out at home against a mediocre opponent. The Bucks' rotation gets a boost with defensive specialist Donte DiVincenzo expected to make his season debut after being out with an ankle injury. This is just Indiana's second road game since Nov. 23. The Pacers lost to the Timberwolves in their last away matchup back on Nov. 29. Indiana is 3-10 on the road. The Bucks have won their last eight home contests. The Bucks also are 2-0 versus the Pacers this season winning those games by an average of 14 points. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point. The Rams trail Arizona by two games in the NFC West making this a must-win spot for them. Not that they would want to, but the Cardinals can take a loss here. Arizona also gets to play the Lions next week. Both teams have excellent statistics. The Rams, though, rank higher than the Cardinals in yards per play and defensive yards per play. Those are underrated and telling numbers. Arizona halted an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with a 37-20 victory in Week 4. The Rams didn't have Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. back then. |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -3 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
No brilliant handicap here. Just a huge class difference. The Warriors are the best team in basketball with a 21-4 record. They rank first defensively and are No. 3 in scoring. The 76ers are 14-12 with a losing home record. They've been without superstar center Joel Embiid, but even with him they still aren't within two levels of Golden State. The teams met on Nov. 24 at Golden State and the Warriors won, 116-96. The 76ers didn't have Embiid and Tobias Harris in that game. They should have them here although Embiid is dealing with abdominal pain after just returning from the COVID-19 list. Sure Embiid and Harris bolster the 76ers a lot. Just not enough to keep them in this point spread range. The Warriors have been idle since Wednesday. They are 14-3 ATS during their last 17 games versus above .500 opponents so they haven't been just fattening up on bad teams. The 76ers have failed to cover in their last six home games. The game is being nationally televised by ABC so the Warriors should be pumped especially with Stephen Curry in pursuit of the all-time 3-point record. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
One thing's for sure here: The Lakers won't be taking the young, rebuilding Thunder for granted. This is the third meeting between the teams. The Lakers are 0-2 versus Oklahoma City blowing leads of 26 and 19 points. LA has been playing better after a disappointing November going 3-2 in its last five games. During this span, the Lakers blew out the Kings on the road and Celtics at home. They lost by four to the Clippers, who played their "A" game in that matchup, and last night were flat in a road loss to the Grizzlies. The Thunder return home winners of two straight road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. It's a rare situation where the Thunder are fat and happy. They also haven't been home in nine days so their focus could be off. Before their two-game road win streak, the Thunder had lost eight in a row, including a mind-boggling 73-point loss to the Grizzlies three games ago. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens. The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards. Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game. It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game. The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week. |
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12-08-21 | Jazz v. Wolves +7 | Top | 136-104 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have shown major improvement this season going 7-1 from Nov. 17-Nov. 29. However, they are 0-3 in their last three games with road losses to the Wizards and Nets and then a bad home loss to the Hawks this past Monday. Minnesota is going to be up for this game. The Timberwolves aren't likely to get injured D'Angelo Russell back here, but Patrick Beverley is expected to play for the first time in six games. Russell and Beverley are Minnesota's two top point guards. Lack of ball movement hurt the Timberwolves in their loss to Atlanta. That should change with Beverley's return. Beverley also is a top-notch defender. He's one of the more unsung players in the NBA. The Timberwolves have the scorers to compete with Utah thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. Utah is fat and happy on a four-game win streak. The Jazz haven't been great in this role lately going 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a favorite and covering just one of their past five road games. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS the last eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Lakers going for me in this revenge spot and catching Boston fat and happy. The Lakers have begun to play better winning four of their last seven games as LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook get more acquainted. The Celtics can't match that star power especially if Jaylen Brown has to miss a third straight game due to a hamstring strain. The Lakers have been idle since Friday when they suffered a frustrating loss to the Clippers, 119-115. They have been pointing to this matchup since losing, 130-108, on the road to the Celtics on Nov. 19. Boston is off a 145-117 waltz against the Damian Lillard-less Trail Blazers this past Saturday. The Celtics have been up-and-down under first year head coach Ime Udoka. |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -107 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday. Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. |
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory. The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State -2 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. |
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12-01-21 | Mavs -2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 139-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Look for the Mavericks to bounce back against the Pelicans, a team they beat at home, 108-92, as 9-point favorites on Nov. 8. That was the sixth time in the last eight meetings Dallas has covered against New Orleans. The Mavericks are 1-5, though, in their last six games and off a 114-96 home loss to the Cavaliers two nights ago. The Cavaliers are improved and Dallas had open looks in that game. The Mavericks just couldn't hit their shots. The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defense. I see the Mavericks hitting their shots in this one. They catch the Pelicans returning home following a successful 2-1 West Coast trip. Both of those wins were against the Clippers. The Pelicans seem to have the Clippers' number. But this isn't a good spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans last were home on Nov. 24. So their focus could be off. They remain without Zion Williamson. |
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11-30-21 | Lakers -4 v. Kings | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Just five days ago the teams met. The Kings prevailed in three overtimes, 141-137. Now the Lakers have rapid revenge. LA won't play again for the next two days following this game and will be at home when their schedule picks up. This should mean big minutes here for Laker superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook since there's no reason to hold back. LA is the healthier team. The Kings could be minus rotation players Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes and Maurice Harkless. All three are questionable. The Kings have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been home 'dogs. The Lakers' sense of urgency has picked up after a slow start.
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11-30-21 | Detroit v. Northeastern -5 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit. The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far. The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is. I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line. Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games. The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington. |
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 146 h 37 m | Show |
The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions. The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up. Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree. Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances. The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013. Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury. The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal. Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack. The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC. |
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11-26-21 | Suns -3 v. Knicks | Top | 118-97 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
This is my NBA Game of the Month. Being a small market team on the West Coast isn't great for attracting national attention. Maybe that's why Chris Paul and his Suns teammates play well in their annual visit to Madison Square Garden. The Suns have beaten the Knicks in New York three straight times with their winning margin being by an average of 16.3 points. Going back to their last 11 times visiting the media center of the U.S., the Suns are 9-2 ATS. Phoenix is red-hot, winners of 14 in a row. The Suns are doing it with a total team effort. They have one of the deepest rosters in the league. Paul is healthy and putting up excellent numbers. Devin Booker is hot. Deandre Ayton is pulling down double-digit rebounds. When all this is happening, the Suns can take their place among the best teams in the NBA. The Knicks are struggling to achieve consistency. They are 3-4 in their last seven games. New York defeated the Lakers, 106-100, this past Tuesday. The Lakers were missing LeBron James. New York is 0-6 ATS the last six times following a victory. |
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11-25-21 | Bills -4 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league. The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season. New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self. New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game. |
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11-23-21 | Heat -10 v. Pistons | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The rebuilding Pistons aren't going to win many games this season. They had a great opportunity to beat the Lakers at home this past Sunday, but blew a 17-point lead to drop to 4-12. But that wasn't the major takeaway. Detroit's second-year center Isaiah Stewart tried to attack LeBron James after James caused Stewart to suffer a facial cut that required eight stitches. The benches cleared and Stewart had to be held back numerous times attempting to fight James. It was an emotional game for the Pistons. I doubt they can bounce back and keep this one close against a much superior and what should be motivated Heat squad. Stewart drew a two-game suspension for his actions. The Pistons also are short-handed in the backcourt with Killian Hayes out another two games due to a thumb injury. There's a fatigue factor working against Detroit, too. This marks the Pistons' seventh game in 12 days. The Heat opened their four-game road trip in bad fashion losing to the Wizards, 103-100, this past Saturday. Miami blew a 10-point lead during the final five minutes. The loss halted a four-game Miami win streak. So the Heat shouldn't lack incentive. They are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400. The Pistons are 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they've met an above .500 foe. Miami's previous three victories have been by 15, 15 and 13 points. |
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11-22-21 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The Grizzlies certainly aren't going to lack motivation for this matchup. Not only are the Grizzlies off a highly-embarrassing,138-95, road loss to the Timberwolves two days ago that Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins called unacceptable, but they have playoff revenge. Utah eliminated Memphis in five games during the first round of the playoffs last season. Historically the Grizzlies have been strong in this type of situation going 19-7 ATS (73 percent) following a loss of more than 10 points. The Jazz, on the other hand, are fat and happy with three straight wins and covers. Those victories came against the banged-up 76ers, who were missing Joel Embiid, the Raptors, who were minus their leading scorer, OG Anunoby, and the Kings in their final game before they fired Luke Walton. Before losing to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies had rolled past the Rockets by 34 points and defeated the Clippers by 12 points. Look for the Grizzlies to get back on track with a competitive performance here. |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7. The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries. Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years. The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week. The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense. Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage. This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers. Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs. Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. |
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11-19-21 | San Diego State -10.5 v. UNLV | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate. UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country. The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 34 m | Show |
The Chiefs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL going 5-4. Bad defense and a league-worst 19 takeaways are the main factors. Lately, though, the Chiefs have begun to clean up those messes. They had no turnovers against the Packers last week. KC's defense has looked better with the return of its top pass rusher, Chris Jones. The Chiefs have held their last two foes, the Packers and Giants, to a combined average of 12 points. The Raiders are off to an impressive 5-3 start aided by an improved defense and Derek Carr playing well. I see regression coming, though. The Raiders have been very fortunate. They've fumbled 10 times and recovered nine of them. Carr never has proven consistent throughout an entire season. He's going to miss the play-calling and game plans of fired coach Jon Gruden and he no longer has vertical threat Henry Ruggs. Kansas City has owned the Raiders, beating them six of the past seven times.
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels. However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory. North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points. Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler. Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. |
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11-10-21 | Heat -4 v. Lakers | Top | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Lakers aren't playing very well. That's evident by this point spread. LA just nipped the Hornets in overtime at home two days ago. In their previous three games the Lakers lost to the Trail Blazers on the road by 15 points, lost to the Thunder at home and edged the Rockets by two points at home. The Thunder and Rockets are among the worst teams in the NBA. Minus injured LeBron James, the Lakers have been relying on 37-year-old Carmelo Anthony. That's not a good sign. The Heat are off to a fast start. However, they opened their road trip with a 113-96 loss to the Nuggets this past Monday. Miami is the better team right now and will be focused. I'm not expecting Anthony to bail out the Lakers like he did against the Hornets. The Heat give up the second-fewest points per game and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage.
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Paul George is playing well. Damian Lillard is not shooting 35.1 percent from the field. The Clippers are on a four-game win streak and home. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road. The Clippers have covered the last five times they've hosted the Trail Blazers, including beating them, 116-86, on Oct. 25. LA is averaging 116.7 points in its last three games. The Trail Blazers are an average defensive team at best. So I see this short spread being safe to lay.
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