Boston ran away with the best record in the NBA at 64-18. The Celtics have continued their dominance in the postseason going 15-3. However, that third playoff loss came this past Friday when the Mavericks stayed alive burying the Celtics by 38 points in Dallas.

The Celtics responded from their previous two playoff losses winning by 20 points against the Heat and winning by 13 points against the Cavaliers. Those were road games. Now the Celtics return to Boston properly chastised and embarrassed for their non-show appearance in Game 4 after winning the first three games of the series.

Overconfidence certainly won't strike the Celtics now. Look for Boston to close out the series regardless if Kristaps Porzingis plays or not. The Celtics have won their past five home games, including defeating the Mavericks by 18 and seven points, respectively, in this championship series.

Dallas' role players stepped up in Game 4. That's been the Mavericks' rotation history, though. Their rotation and bench players have performed statistically better at home in the playoffs than away. The Celtics have too much depth and versatility for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to overcome unless they get sufficient help, which hasn't been the case when playing in Boston.

The Mavericks scoring 122 points in Game 4 was an outlier. A case of pouring it on at home long after the Celtics had surrendered. Boston had held the Mavericks to an average of 95.3 points during the first three games of the series.

Joe Mazzulla has grown as a coach. I trust him to make good adjustments and have the Celtics mentally ready and refocused to close out the series in this Game 5.

The Celtics didn't sweep their playoff series against the Heat. Nor did they sweep their playoff series against the Cavaliers. I don't see them doing it again against the Mavericks, who have come close in the past two games despite making only 15 of 51 shots from beyond the arc for 29.4 percent during this time span.

The open looks for Dallas have been there. The Mavericks just haven't converted. The Celtics are the superior team, but that edge is negated by the Mavericks at home in must-win mode and Kristaps Porzingis unlikely to play, or not be at 100 percent if he does.

Luka Doncic is a superstar. But he's also thuggish and a whiny crybaby always griping and gesturing about calls he thinks he's not getting. It's disgusting to watch someone that talented sink that low. However, he's likely to get the benefit of the doubt in this Game 4 after he fouled out of the last game.

Kyrie Irving should have his confidence back after scoring 35 points in Wednesday's Game 3.

The last time there was a championship series sweep in the NBA was 2018 when the Warriors took out a decimated Cavaliers team. Before that you have to go back to 2007 when the Spurs swept the Cavaliers. It's just not that common. There's too much pride at stake.

The Mavericks are the healthier team with Porzingis probably out. This is their game to win.

The Celtics have been amazingly consistent with their scoring during their last nine games. They are averaging 111.3 points in regulation during this span, never scoring fewer than 105 points.

Yet the first two games of this series have gone Under because the Mavericks have managed to only produce games of 89 and 98 points.

So the oddsmaker has adjusted. We now have the lowest total of the series.

Dallas is averaging only 93.5 points in the series. There have been two main reasons for that. The Mavericks are just 13-for-53 shooting from 3-point range. That's 24.5 percent. They averaged 36.9 percent during the regular season. The other major factor is aside from Luke Doncic, nearly all of the other Mavericks have failed to step up, especially their role players.

I expect this to change in this Game 3. Boston should maintain its consistency on the scoring end. The Mavericks, though, are due to hit more of their 3-points. Many of their misses have come on open looks.

Look for the Mavericks' role players to step up now that the scene has shifted to Dallas. This is proven in the Mavericks' playoff statistics. Aside from Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the other Mavericks have shot 48.6 percent from the field and 38 percent from beyond the arc when at home during the postseason compared to their road playoff marks of 46.1 percent shooting from the floor and 34.7 percent from 3-point range.

Dallas' big men will be able to score more inside, too, if Kristaps Porzingis can't play, or is limited, after aggravating a leg injury in Game 2.

The pattern usually is higher-scoring games early in the series, lower scoring as the series goes deeper. It makes sense as often at least one team has fresh legs. The teams are in the process, too, of trying to discover what is the most effective way to guard certain players. Both of these teams are more than properly rested for this Game 1 matchup.

Dallas hasn't played in a week giving Luka Doncic ample time to get healthy. Boston last played on May 27.

The Celtics scored 117 points in regulation in Game 1 against the Pacers. Boston produced 120 points vs the Heat in the opening game of that series and scored 114 points against Miami in that playoff opener. The Cavaliers and Heat are superior defensive teams to Dallas.

Boston has elite offensive ability and tremendous scoring depth. The Celtics averaged 120.6 points during the regular-season, which was No. 2 in the league. Big man Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play after missing the last 10 games with a calf injury. The 7-foot-2 inch Porzingis averages 20.1 points, shoots 51.6 percent from the floor and makes 85.8 percent of his free throws. He's a matchup nightmare for the Mavericks' low-post defense, which relies on smaller centers, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.

Porzingis is effective because he can pass and shoot. The Celtics led the NBA in making corner 3-point shots at 43.6 percent. Dallas is vulnerable on that shot.

It takes two to make a total work. The Mavericks will bring plenty to the offensive table. They have one of the great offensive backcourts of all-time in Doncic and Kyrie Irving along with a cast of impact role players. Doncic scored 33 and 37 points, respectively, in the two regular-season games against Boston. It's going to take time for Boston to probe and figure out the best way to minimize the damage Doncic is going to cause. It's scary to think how great Doncic can be in this series if he's finally 100 percent.

The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team in the league averaging 117.9 points. During their last game, the Mavericks scored 124 points on the road against the Timberwolves, who led the NBA in defense giving up 106.5 points a game.

The record is 155-0. That's the mark of NBA playoff teams winning a best-of-seven playoff series after falling behind, 3-0. I don't see the Timberwolves putting a halt to that 155-series losing streak.

The Timberwolves stayed alive with a 105-100 road win against the Mavericks this past Tuesday. Minnesota shot 53 percent from the floor and 46 percent from 3-point range. Dallas was missing big man Dereck Lively II, who was out with a sprained neck. He's likely to play in this game. Luka Docic and Kyrie Irving were a combined 13-for-39 from the floor and missed 17 of 22 3-point shots. Yet the Timberwolves only won by five points.

Dallas is 2-0 at Minnesota in the playoffs and 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven road playoff games. Only once in their last 15 games, have the Mavericks lost by more than five points.

Minnesota is 1-4 SU and ATS in its past five home contests.

I don't trust the Timberwolves as home favorites where all the pressure is on them. Maybe the Timberwolves will force a Game 6, but I'll take this many points to find that out.

Minnesota is down 2-0 to Dallas in this Western Conference Finals series. Worse for the Timberwolves is the two losses were at home.

But don't write off Minnesota yet.

Luka Doncic is the best player on the floor. But the Timberwolves own the better and deeper roster. They also are 5-1 on the road in the playoffs.

Dallas nipped the Timberwolves, 108-105, in Game 1. Minnesota was emotionally and physically drained after winning the last two games of its series against the defending champion Nuggets, including winning at Denver in Game 7.

The Mavericks shot 49 percent from the floor in Game 1. Minnesota shot 43 percent. Dallas again made 49 percent of its field goals in Game 2, while the Timberwolves shot just 41 percent from the floor. Yet the Mavericks needed a late 3-pointer by Doncic to pull out a 109-108 victory.

The Timberwolves are due to shoot better, especially Anthony Edwards. He's 11-for-33 from the floor in the series for 33.3 percent.

The Mavericks are due for shooting regression against a defense this good. Minnesota was the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA both in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage at 45 percent. The Timberwolves are giving up only 94.2 points in their last four games.

The Pacers nearly upset the Celtics blowing a late lead in a 133-128 overtime loss in Game 1 two days ago. The Celtics weren't fully prepared for the Pacers' fast-paced offense. Indiana also happened to shoot 53.5 percent from the floor.

I expect a much better defensive focus from the Celtics in this Game 2 home matchup. Boston gave up the fifth-fewest points during the regular season, while also ranking No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in 3-point defense.

The Celtics held the Cavaliers and Heat to an average of 94.3 points a game in their previous nine games, not including a 118-94 loss to Cleveland in Game 2 of that series.

The Pacers' defense has picked up. If you exclude a 121-91 loss to the Knicks in Game 5 of their series, the Pacers are giving up an average of 104.8 points during their last five games.

Early games in playoff series often are higher-scoring than the later ones in the series. I see that occurring here. The Mavericks have fresh legs being idle the past four days. That's a much needed break for Luka Doncic, who has been dealing with injury and illness.

The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team during the regular season averaging 117.9 points.

The two teams met four times during the regular season. The combined scores of those games were 223, 220, 218 and 208 - all of which is higher than this total.

Slower tempo and much improved defensive play have resulted in the Under cashing during the past three games in this Mavericks-Thunder series. 

There have been 196, 196 and 206 combined points during these last three games. That averages out to 199.3 If anything I see more defensive intensity for this crucial Game 6 matchup with the Thunder trailing the Mavericks 3-2 in the series. 

Both teams are playing their best defense of the season. The Under is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's playoff games. The Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last five games. 

Superstars Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander get all the publicity. But there are several unsung, below-the-radar players whose defense has been exceptional, including Lugentz Dort and Derrick Jones Jr.

I'm going with the Zig-Zag theory here, figuring the Pacers to tie this series at 3-3 after being embarrassed, 121-91, at New York this past Tuesday. 
The Pacers are 5-0 at home in the playoffs. This includes a pair of victories against the Knicks with an average winning margin of 18.5 points. 

The Knicks are extremely short-handed with Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson and now OG Anunoby all ruled out. Jalen Brunson is playing hurt. The Knicks are effectively down to just seven players. The Pacers' bench has been taking advantage. The Knicks are wearing down this late in the season and as this series goes deeper. 

So the Knicks just might pull the plug on this game if it gets out of hand looking ahead to Game 7 at home on Sunday.

Help. The Timberwolves have fallen down and I don't see them picking themselves up. The Timberwolves' lack of big-game playoff experience is showing in lost composure and immaturity.

After falling behind 0-2 in this series, the Nuggets have won the last three games by an average of 16.7 points. Denver is 2-0 in Minnesota winning those games by eight and 27 points, respectively.

The momentum is clearly with Denver. The Timberwolves hadn't lost three straight games all season. Now Minnesota faces adversity they never had to deal with all season.

I don't see the Timberwolves having enough poise to force a seventh game by winning this matchup. Nikola Jokic has gotten off to average 33 points during the last three games. I trust him more than any of the Timberwolves' stars.

Mike Conley missing Tuesday's Game 5 with a sore right Achilles really hurt the Timberwolves not just with his heady point guard play, but also his veteran leadership on the court. Conley is the one player who can keep the Timberwolves' emotional temperature at an even keel. He's questionable for Thursday's game.

This series has a definite Zig-Zag feel to it. That includes the total, too. The past two games have gone Under. Now we have the lowest total of the series posted for this Game 5.

I can understand the oddsmaker's need to lower the total following Oklahoma City's, 100-96, road victory on Monday to even the series at 2-2. But it is set too low.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined to shoot just 10-for-31 from the field in that game and the Mavericks were only 12-for-23 from the foul line. Oklahoma City does not have a top-10 defense.

I realize Doncic is playing at less than 100 percent and Dallas is not a good free throwing shooting team. But those numbers and shooting percentages from Doncic and Irving are going way up in this game. The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team in the league at 117.9 points this past season.

The Thunder ranked third in scoring and field goal percentage. They also were No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage. Oklahoma City has averaged 117 points in its last three home playoff games.

I'm not panicking about the Timberwolves losing two straight home games to the Nuggets. The Timberwolves have played better on the road in the playoffs. It could be because their young team feels less pressure when they're not expected to win.

Minnesota has been an underdog four times this postseason - twice at Phoenix and twice at Denver. The Timberwolves are not just 4-0 ATS in those games, but they won each of those games straight-up!

I see that pattern continuing here.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are elite players. They are due to play better. Meanwhile, Denver's Aaron Gordon is due for a huge regression.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are going to get their points. Just as Anthony Edwards will for the Timberwolves. But I don't see Gordon continuing with his unbelievable shooting. He's 16-of-19 from the floor for 84 percent during the last two games.

Oklahoma City wasn't just the best team in the Western Conference. The Thunder had far and away the top record in the West, six games better than the next closest team.

But after sweeping the Pelicans in the first round and burying Dallas by 22 points in Game 1, the Thunder have dropped the past two games.

Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are getting underachieving scoring from their four other starters. Dallas, on the other hand, is getting shocking offensive production from P.J. Washington. He's averaging 28 points in the past two games after averaging fewer than 13 points per game during the regular season. He is 12-for-23 (52 percent) from 3-point range in the last two games after shooting 32.4 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season.

Washington's surprising hot hand has covered up that Luka Doncic is not nearly at 100 percent bothered by both a knee sprain and ankle soreness.

I expect the Thunder to step up their game, make a necessary adjustment on Washington and even the series with a win today. The Thunder had their chance leading by 10 points in the third quarter in Game 3. They weren't sharp and poised enough, though, to hold that lead. Lesson learned. Oklahoma City is the better team and will prove it here.

The Timberwolves had their fun upsetting the defending world champion Nuggets in Denver during the first two games of the series.

But that fun ended when the Nuggets regrouped to batter the Nuggets, 117-90, in Minneapolis this past Friday.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray showed they could get the better of the Timberwolves' defense that ranked No. 1 during the regular season. The Nuggets have their confidence back now. The Timberwolves are young, untested in the playoffs and face more pressure than usual being a home favorite.

I don't trust the Timberwolves in this role.

It's only been two games, but already this series is shaping up to be weird. The Celtics scored 120 points in Game 1 and won by 25 points. The Cavaliers scored 118 points in Game 2 and won by 24 points.

So where to go in Game 3?

The Over.

The Celtics scored the second most points per game in the NBA. They ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency and were second in 3-point field goal percentage. I have tremendous respect for Cleveland's defense, although it's not as imposing without center Jarrett Allen. He's missed the past five games and is questionable due to injured ribs. Boston is going to push tempo and get its points.

The key is can the Cavaliers contribute their share to the Over? They made a number of offensive adjustments in Game 2 scoring 24 more points than they did in Game 1. Donovan Mitchell is on his game. He's shooting 50 percent from the floor in the series making 22 of 44 shots from the field, while averaging 31 points.

Boston is without its best big man, Kristaps Porzingis. That hurts its defensive rebounding and opens up the lane more for Cleveland.

Note that only once during the past nine times these teams have played has the combined score been below 212 points.

I get that the defending world champion Nuggets don't want to fall to 0-2 in this series, especially being the home team.

However, the Timberwolves are playing their best ball, while the Nuggets are not, and Minnesota matches up well to Denver.

Minnesota is 5-0 in the playoffs with each victory being by at least six points. This includes a 106-99 road win against the Nuggets this past Saturday.

The Timberwolves rank first in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. They have an emerging superstar in Anthony Edwards and big athletic skilled defenders to bother Nikola Jokic with Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid. Jokic shot just 11-of-25 from the floor in Game 1.

Minnesota easily was the superior team in Game 1. There is no reason the Timberwolves can't repeat that. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS the past four times they've been favored. Denver and the Lakers scored the same amount of points during the last four games of their series.

While Edwards is averaging 39.6 points in his last three games, Denver's key scorer, Jamal Murray, hasn't been 100 percent because of a calf strain. Murry is shooting just 40.3 percent from the floor in the playoffs compared to 48.1 percent during the regular season.

The youthful Magic turned a corner this season making the playoffs. But I rate the Cavaliers as the better team, especially at home. It's a nice bonus if All-Star center Jarrett Allen can play for Cleveland. He's questionable with a rib contusion and has missed the last two games.

The Cavaliers defeated the Magic, at home, in Game 5 without Allen and I see them doing it here, too, in Game 7.

Orlando lacks big-game playoff experience. The Magic are 1-8 in their past nine games at Cleveland. This includes going 0-3 in the series with their average losing margin being 8.3 points.

We may not see a point spread this high the rest of the series. These teams are more even than perceived. Minnesota outscored Denver during the 2-2 split the teams had during the regular season.

The Timberwolves are the No. 1 defensive team. They gave up the fewest points per game and also were first in defensive field goal percentage. The Timberwolves are brimming with confidence after sweeping the Suns in four games with a winning margin of 15.5 points. Minnesota is rested and healthy.

The Nuggets did what they had to do in taking out the Lakers in five games. But they weren't sharp. The points were even during the final four games of the series. Denver went 0-3 ATS the last three times it was favored against the Lakers. 

Minnesota matches up well to the Nuggets because of its size and physical defense. Anthony Edwards is emerging into a superstar. Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns can make things difficult for Nikola Jokic. 

Denver is banged-up. Jamal Murray is dealing with a calf injury. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a defensive ace who likely will cover Edwards, isn't 100 percent of a sprained ankle sustained against the Lakers in Game 5 this past Monday.

This has become a typical, physical Eastern Conference series. Defense has started to exert itself as we reach this Game 6.

There were 189 points scored in Game 4 at Philadelphia. Then in Game 5, the 76ers kept the series alive by upsetting the Knicks, 112-106, in overtime. There were 194 points scored in regulation.

The pace has been slow, the defense tightened and the fatigue factor is up especially for key scorers Joel Embiid, Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey. So I see a low-scoring matchup here.

I'm betting that desperation, excellent defense and fine coaching will keep the Heat inside of this large number in this Game 5 playoff matchup. Miami is eliminated by a loss.

The Heat have held Boston to an average of 102.3 points during the past three games. I regard the Heat's Eric Spoelstra as an elite coach.

The Celtics will be without their star big man, Kristaps Porzingis. He's out with a calf injury.

Miami lost by 14 points in the last game. The Heat shot just 41 percent from the floor, 27 percent from 3-point range and only got to shoot 12 free throws. I expect the Heat to shoot better this game.

The Magic blew out the Cavaliers twice at home, 121-83 and 112-89, to even this series at 2-2.

Should the Cavaliers be worried? No. I think the Cavaliers have been playing possum and they will regain the series lead following this game.

The Cavaliers are home, after all, in this matchup.

Orlando isn't the same team on the road. The Magic are youthful and inexperienced in the postseason. They have dropped six straight away games.

The Cavaliers beat the Magic by an average of 13 points when they hosted them in Games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for the Cavaliers to re-establish their dominance here.

The Pelicans have yet to break 92 points in falling behind 3-0 in their series against the Thunder. So now after seeing totals of 216 1/2, 210 and 210, we have the lowest total of the series.

It's too low.

Oklahoma City was the third-highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. The Thunder also was first in 3-point accuracy.

Despite this being playoff basketball and the Pelicans having a good defense, the Thunder still have averaged 115 points during the past two games. The pace is fast and the ball movement is good for Oklahoma City. I don't see that changing. The Thunder are going to produce their share of points.

The key question is will the Pelicans hold up their end on offense, which they haven't done so far.

New Orleans has nothing to lose now down 3-0 and being at home. The Pelicans are more than capable of scoring points even with Zion Williamson out. They averaged 111.9 points during their last 10 games before this series.

Oklahoma City ranked 11th defensively allowing an average of 112.7 points during the regular season. The Pelicans are overdue to shoot better than 40.3 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from beyond the arc. During the regular season, New Orleans ranked ninth in field goal percentage at 48.6 percent and fourth in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.3.

Normally I'd prefer Under rather than Over when it comes to NBA playoff basketball. But in this case, I find the value to be on the Over.
The Timberwolves and Suns met just two days ago. There were 235 points scored in that game.

Minnesota won again to go up 3-0 in the series. The Timberwolves are dominating the paint. They are averaging 117 points in the series. Phoenix doesn't have the defensive capability to shut down Minnesota.

The Suns are a frustrated and humiliated team. They are playing at home, though, with nothing to lose at this embarrassing stage. So I see them playing fast and furious with a tempo that suits an Over. Phoenix certainly has the offensive stars to produce a lot of points against any team. 

Defense comes to the forefront during playoff basketball. But there has been too much of a lower adjustment on this total, especially with the Suns returning to Phoenix to host the Timberwolves. This is the lowest total of the series and Phoenix's lowest total of the season.

The tempo has been good for an Over. The teams are running. What hasn't been good is Phoenix's shooting. The Suns shot 49.3 percent from the floor during the regular season. That was the fifth-best in the league. However, the Suns have shot 44.4 percent from the field during the first two games of this season.

Minnesota has been playing good defense. Bradley Beal and especially Devin Booker are due, though, for big games. I look for the Suns to shoot much better at home where the Timberwolves will be far less intimidating. The Timberwolves will get their share of points, too, against an average Suns defense that has trouble defending in the paint.

Down 2-0 in the series and fresh from hearing Minnesota fans screaming, "Wolves in four! Wolves in four," I expect a monster effort here from the Suns.

Phoenix won all three regular season games against the Timberwolves. The Suns won those games by an average of 15.7 points.

But the Suns have struggled against the Timberwolves during the first two games of this playoff series with both games being in Minnesota. Now, though, the Suns are back in Phoenix in must-win mode.

Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are overdue for big performances especially Booker.

I've never seen Joel Embiid more mad than after the Knicks', 104-101, Game 2 win this past Monday.

Embiid has good reason to be fuming: The Knicks stole the game. The referees blew several calls in the final seconds that cost the 76ers that game as the home Knicks scored eight straight points in the final 30 seconds to pull out the victory.

That puts the Knicks up 2-0 in the series. But now the scene shifts to Philadelphia where the fired-up 76ers will be in Circle-The-Wagons mode in this must-win spot.

Embiid and emerging star Tyrese Maxey will have had two full days to get healthy. The next game isn't until Sunday. So the 76ers will be laying it all on the line here. I want them going for me.

Even though this is playoff basketball, this is too short of a total given the star power these teams possess. 

Minnesota dominated the paint, shooting 50 percent from the floor, in beating the Suns, 120-95, in the series opener this past Saturday. The Suns had trouble matching up and slowing down Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, who were a combined 19-for-33 for 57.5 percent shooting from the field. 

The Suns shot just 44 percent from the floor and 32 percent from 3-point range. They were in the top-five in each category during the regular season making 49.3 percent of their field goals and 38.2 percent of their 3-point shots. 

Saddled with foul trouble, Devin Booker had an off shooting game for the Suns in Game 1. 

The Suns had scored 125 points against the Timberwolves during the final regular season game. I expect Phoenix to come out with a fast-pace and in desperation mode after its embarrassing opening game series loss.

Having had the Under in Game 1 this past Saturday, I wasn't surprised when only 180 points were produced in the Cavaliers', 97-83, home victory against the Magic.

But now with a downward adjustment of nearly six points on the total, I'm going Over in Monday's Game 2 meeting between these teams.

Before Saturday's Game 1, the team's hadn't played in nearly a week. It was an unusual early start time, too. The Magic were tight competing in their first playoff action since 2020.

None of those factors will be in play for the Under in this game. It's a normal evening start. Both teams should have the rust off and Orlando won't be so nervous.

I understand both teams are excellent defensively. But the outside looks were there for Orlando with the Cavaliers packing the inside. Not only did the Magic miss 29 of 37 shots from 3-point range, but they also only made 63 percent of their free throws going 19-for-30. Cleveland didn't shoot well either from 3-point range, missing 22 of 30 from beyond the arc.

Orlando had scored 113 or more points in five of its last seven previous games. Cleveland averaged 116.7 points in its past four games before this matchup.

Yes, this is playoff basketball. The defensive intensity is magnified. But I expect the team's to shoot much better than a combined 16-for-67 (23.8 percent) from 3-point range especially with stud scorers Donovan Mitchell and Paolo Banchero.

Can Boston just turn it off and on? I'll take this many points with Miami to find out.

Since clinching home-court, the Celtics have covered only once going 1-3-2 ATS. Their straight-up victories during their final six regular season games were by one point against the Kings and wins against the Trail Blazers, Hornets and Wizards whose combined record is 57-189. Boston lost by 13 points to the Bucks and by nine points to the Knicks during their two other games. 

It has been a week since the Celtics last played. 

No such rust, or lack of intensity, with the Heat. Miami had to defeat the Bulls, 112-91, this past Friday in a play-in tournament elimination game to get to this series. The Heat won that game despite not having Jimmy Butler, who remains out.

The Heat made the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last season. They proceeded to win the Eastern Conference, including taking out the Celtics.

No Butler, but the Heat still are the Heat. That means excellent coaching, big-game experience, tough defense and both physical and mental toughness.

Two outstanding defensive teams here in what should be an intense, grind-it-out opening-round Eastern Conference series. Throw in an unusual start time and a six-day rust factor and the Under should pay off.

Neither team hasn't played in six days. The Magic could be tight, too, since this is their first playoff game since 2020.

Orlando has a bottom-seven offense, but is very strong defensively. The Magic ranked fourth in fewest points allowed per game, gave up the second-fewest field goals and ranked No. 2 in defensive rebounding.

The Cavaliers gave up the seventh-fewest points per game in the NBA. They also were third in defensive two-pointers allowed and ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage.

An early day time start is another factor favoring the Under.

I know why the Kings are a road favorite against the Pelicans in this loser-goes-home play-in game. New Orleans won't have injured Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are off two losses to the Lakers and the Kings looked great in eliminating the Warriors, 118-94, at home this past Tuesday.

But these reasons aren't valid enough to change my mind that New Orleans is better than Sacramento and will prove it here. It's an added bonus the Pelicans are home and in an underdog role.

Yes, the Pelicans are off consecutive defeats to the Lakers. They have trouble matching up to LA. Sacramento doesn't have LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Pelicans play with far more confidence against the Kings. They are 5-0 vs Sacramento this season, including a 12-point road victory a week ago.

The Pelicans know how to win without Williamson. They've done it before. This isn't to downplay Williamson's absence, but the Kings have their own injury woes. Starter Kevin Huerter is out for the season with a shoulder injury and sixth man Malik Monk is sidelined with a knee injury.

The Kings smashed the Warriors. But even with that victory, Sacramento is just 5-7 in its last 12 games.

A big reason why the Pelicans are 5-0 against the Kings is superior defense. New Orleans ranks eighth in scoring defense, seventh in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in 3-point defense. Sacramento, by contrast, is 17th in scoring defense, 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point defense.

There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored.

Superstar center Joel Embiid returned this month after being out since February. Philadelphia is 6-0 SU and ATS in the six April games Embiid has played. It's not just Embiid. Tyrese Maxey shot up Miami's zone defense averaging 27.3 points and 8.3 rebounds against the Heat this season.

Miami has a history of stepping up come playoff time. But that perception doesn't fit this season, especially against a 76ers team the Heat have trouble matchup up against. The Heat rank 26th in scoring. They can easily beat the Raptors, but they don't have it in a step-up playoff game such as this one.

It's playoff time now in the NBA. That means the defensive intensity goes way up. This matchup should be a perfect example of that.

The Pelicans were embarrassed by the Lakers at home this past Sunday falling behind by 32 points in a 124-108 loss. Expect a very physical, focused defensive effort from the home Pelicans in this rematch.

"We have to come back with the right mentality," Pelicans coach Willie Green was quoted as saying. "They (the Lakers) were the aggressors (this past Sunday). We have to be the aggressive team. We have to be the more physical team. We have to keep them out of our paint and make them take contested shots and rebound the ball."

The Pelicans certainly are capable of this. They are a top-eight defensive team with the second-best 3-point field goal percentage defense.

The Lakers held the Pelicans to 108 points two days ago despite New Orleans making 48 percent of its shots from the floor, which is its average.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31.  That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role.  The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty. 

Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards?

Don't be. The spot sets up extremely well for Washington. The Bulls played last night in Detroit. They were intense, highly-motivated and routed the Pistons, 127-105. That victory was significant in that it clinched the No. 9 seed for Chicago and allowed the Bulls to claim home court edge against the 10th-seeded Hawks. That was what the Bulls were aiming for since that's the best they could finish during the regular season.

So this road game against the Wizards is meaningless. It's also Chicago's fourth game in six days and the Bulls will be playing without rest - at least the Bulls who Billy Donovan chooses to play. As the Bulls coach could be sitting out his key starters, or at least heavily cutting back their minutes in anticipation of the playoffs. 

The Wizards are 15-65. This is their chance to at least finish their home schedule with a victory. Washington is 3-2-1 ATS in its last six home games, including upsetting the Bucks 10 days ago.

(Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.) 

This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, who have incentive to host the Hawks in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.

Bulls coach Billy Donovan ripped his team after Chicago lost, 128-117, at home to the Knicks two days ago.

Donovan knows the Bulls have to get better. Chicago draws the perfect patsy in the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA at 13-66. The Pistons are in free fall losing 13 of their last 14 games, including the past five.

The Pistons have lost their last three games by an average of 15.3 points. This is their first home game since concluding a four-game, six-day road trip that finished this past Tuesday night with a blowout loss to the 76ers.

Not helping matters for the Pistons is Cade Cunningham, their best player, missing the past four games due to knee soreness. He's questionable for this matchup.

These two teams just played last night at Phoenix. The Clippers built a huge lead and coasted to a 105-92 win. 

The 197 points scored fell 29 points below the total. That was despite the two teams combining to make 35-of-39 free throws for 90 percent.
Yet we have around the same total for today's rematch in Los Angeles. 

Both the Suns and Clippers have stepped up their defensive play. 

The Suns have held six of their last nine opponents to 106 points or fewer.  Their defensive intensity should be up following last night's embarrassment. The Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard and James Harden due to injuries last night. Leonard has missed the past five games due to knee soreness. I doubt he plays. Harden is questionable. 

The Clippers have held six of their last eight foes from scoring more than 110 points. The Suns have failed to break 105 points in six of their last eight games.

The Timberwolves are tied with the Nuggets for the top spot in the Western Conference. Minnesota plays in Denver against the Nuggets on Wednesday in a huge national TV (ESPN) matchup.

But first the Timberwolves host the Wizards on Tuesday. So you'll excuse the Timberwolves if they don't bring their "A" game in an obvious look-ahead spot.

The Wizards are terrible. But only once in their last 11 games have they lost by more than 16 points.

"...These games matter to us and we're going to try to use each one, and use each day to try to get our team better and grow," Wizards interim coach Brian Keefe was quoted as saying.

Washington won't play again until Friday so a full effort should be forthcoming. The Timberwolves have only blown out one opponent by more than 16 points during their last 10 games.

Orlando is a bit banged-up, but this is a short number for the Magic to lay against a dead Rockets team.

Houston made a move this season, but ran out of gas. The Rockets have lost five in a row. Their average losing margin during this span is 14.2 points. The Rockets are eliminated now from play-in contention.

This has changed the Rockets' focus. They are now looking ahead to next season.

The Magic, however, are in full win mode trailing the reeling Bucks by only one game for the No. 2 seed in the East. The Magic are 4-1 in their last five games.

No team has a better point spread record than the Magic, who are an amazing 50-28 (64%) ATS.

Driven by trying to gain an automatic playoff berth and revenge, Miami should cover this short road number.

The Heat are in a dogfight for the sixth position in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They've played better on the road than at home winning 23 of their 40 away games.

Miami lost to Atlanta in the team's last meeting on Jan. 19 in Miami. The Hawks hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left to win, 109-108.

The Hawks already know their playoff seeding, which will be ninth or 10th. That means involvement in the play-in round.

Atlanta hasn't been in good form returning home after consecutive road losses to the Mavericks, 109-95, and Nuggets, 142-110.

Trae Young remains out for Atlanta.

It's a bonus if Cade Cunningham is available to play. He's questionable after missing the last three games due to knee soreness.

Regardless of his status, though, this is too many points for the 76ers to be laying this late in the season when they carry a high fatigue rating and need to be careful in doling out minutes to their starters.

It's the 76ers' third game in four days and fourth matchup in six days.

The 76ers nearly were upset by the Spurs in their last game this past Sunday, needing overtime to win.

This is Philadelphia's first home game in a week having played its last three games on the road.

Joel Embiid is questionable after missing the Spurs game. If he does suit up, the 76ers are likely to be careful in monitoring his minutes. Same with Tyrese Maxey, who scored 52 points against the Spurs, but logged 54 minutes. The 76ers could get Tobias Harris and Kyle Lowry back, but aren't expected to have De'Anthony Melton and Robert Covington.

Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut.

The Boilermakers have allowed an average of only 61.2 points in regulation during their seven games, spanning the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament.

Connecticut has gone Under in nine of its last 10 games, including the past six. The Huskies have held seven of their last nine foes to 60 points or fewer.

So it's no surprise early money has come on the Under. The Under is helped, too, by Connecticut's slow pace and the game being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., which is known for being a tough venue for shooters.

Zach Edey has been dominant scoring inside for Purdue. But the 7-foot-4 Edey will face his biggest challenge going against 7-2 Donovan Clingan. Both are excellent defenders. Clingan ranked eighth in the nation in blocked shots per game.

Yes, these teams have firepower. But both teams have been playing excellent defense lately. Their defenses are underrated. The Pelicans are fourth in defensive field goal percentage, while the Suns rank seventh in the category. 

New Orleans is averaging only 105.4 points in its last five games. The Pelicans are really missing Brandon Ingram, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. He remains out with a knee injury. 

The Suns have scored 106 points or below in five of their past seven games. But if you discount the 128 points they surrendered to the Thunder, the Suns are giving up an average of just 101 points in their last six games. 

The teams just met six days ago with Phoenix winning, 124-111. I'm expecting far fewer points in this quick rematch. The Pelicans are in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row with the last one being an embarrassing, 111-109, home loss to the Spurs two days ago. An intense defensive effort should be forthcoming from them.

By virtue of winning six of their last eight games, the Hawks have clinched a play-in berth. So they don't have huge incentive here.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are going for No. 1 seeding in the West trailing the Timberwolves by half-a-game for that distinction. Denver won't play again until Tuesday. That should ensure a strong, all-out effort especially since the Nuggets are off a 102-100 loss to the Clippers on Thursday.
 
Denver's previous loss was to the Timberwolves at home eight days ago. The Nuggets followed that defeat by burying the Cavaliers at home by 29 points. 

The Hawks haven't beaten the Nuggets in Denver since 2019.

I understand the Kings just blew a 21-point lead in suffering a 120-109 road loss to the Knicks Thursday night.

But this is a great spot to back the Kings - and yes it's against the Celtics.

This is Boston's first game since clinching home-court throughout the playoffs. The Celitcs will talk about staying motivated, but they can't help relaxing and taking their foot off the gas now that their regular season goal has been achieved.

Boston's priority is to be cautious with its stars. No reason to risk injury, or burn any of them out, now that the rest of the regular season has become meaningless.

The Kings are an underrated adversary.

Even with that defeat to the Knicks, the Kings are 21-17 on the road. They are trying to chase down the Pelicans and Suns for the sixth playoff spot in the West.

Sacramento has quietly, below the radar, picked up its defense holding 11 of its last 13 opponents to 109 or fewer points. During their last 16 games, the Kings have lost by more than eight points just twice.

Sparked by Joel Embiid's return after missing nine weeks due to knee surgery, the 76ers beat the Thunder, 109-105, at home on Tuesday. The 76ers are going to be careful with Embiid. This is going to be a much tougher task for the 76ers playing the Heat in Miami. It's Philadelphia's fourth straight different venue. 

Erik Spoelstra has Miami peaking again at the right time. The Heat have won four of their last five games, including the past three.
 
The Heat should be pointing to this matchup as they go on the road following this game for their next three games facing the Rockets, Pacers and Hawks. 

Terry Rozier has been hot for Miami averaging 27.6 points in his last three games. The Heat's rotation gets a boost with the return of Kevin Love. The 76ers have Embiid back, but may be minus two important cogs, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. Both are questionable.

The Hawks are riding high after an important, 113-101, win against the Bulls two days ago. The Hawks are at the Mavericks on Thursday night in a challenging matchup.

But first the Hawks need to take care of business at home against the lowly Pistons.

This is Atlanta's fifth game in eight days. The Hawks remain without superstar Trae Young. So I find value in a point spread this high to back Detroit.

The Pistons are much more respectable with Cade Cunningham in the lineup. He's averaging 22.7 points and 7.5 assists.

Detroit has a winning ATS mark in its last eight road games and has played the Hawks tough during its two meetings this season, losing by six points each time.

The timing is right for the Bulls to cover this road number - if not pull off a surprising upset.

The Timberwolves return home fat and happy after an impressive, 111-98, road win against the defending champion Nuggets Friday night.

The Bulls enter this matchup off an embarrassing, 125-108, road loss to the Nets Friday night.

Chicago defeated Minnesota earlier in the season. The Bulls can do it again. Even with that loss to the Nets, the Bulls are 9-5 SU and ATS in their last 14 away games.

The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS the past five times they have been favored by eight or more points. There's a chance, too, Minnesota could be minus Rudy Gobbert and Anthony Edwards. Both are questionable with injuries.

The Cavaliers rank fifth defensively in the NBA. Denver ranks seventh defensively. Both teams rate in the bottom-seven in pace. The Nuggets are likely to be missing their second-leading scorer, Jamal Murray. He's been out the last four games with a sore knee. 

The defensive intensity should be way up as Denver has lost two in a row - both at home - and has revenge while the Cavaliers are 2-4 in their last six games. 

Obviously missing Murray's 20.9 point scoring average, the Nuggets are averaging just 97.5 points in their past two games. 

The Cavaliers are averaging only 103.6 points during their last six games.

The Hawks still may not have come down to Earth after beating the Celtics in overtime as a 16-point 'dog two days ago. Atlanta is fat and happy with four consecutive victories.

However, this marks Atlanta's fourth game in six days and third in four days. The Hawks remain without a number of important players, including Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Saddiq Bey. 

The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode off consecutive losses to the Pelicans and Lakers. Milwaukee won't have Damian Lillard, but they will have extreme motivation and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That will be enough for them to cover this number.

How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent.

Illinois ranks 12th in the nation in scoring and second in offensive efficiency. Connecticut is strong defensively, but not as good as Iowa State.

There hasn't been any stopping Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. He's averaging 30.2 points in his last seven games, the hottest player in the country.
Connecticut has even a better offense than Illinois in terms of efficiency ranking No. 1 in the country. The Huskies are going to get their points against an Illinois defense that ranks below average rating 214th in scoring defense and 259th in 3-point defense.

The teams met just six days ago in LA. The Lakers won a wild, 150-145, shootout. But it wasn't so much the Lakers winning that irked the Pacers, it was how Los Angeles prevailed.

There were 31 fouls called on the Pacers in that game. The Lakers made 38 of 43 free throws. Only 14 fouls were whistled against the Lakers. The Pacers shot just 16 free throws, which were 27 fewer than the Lakers!

The Pacers are doubly mad after losing by 26 points to the Bulls on the road this past Wednesday. They are home now and rested having been idle the past two days.

The Lakers are very much in a situational disadvantage and not just because of the short revenge angle. This marks LA's third game in four days and fourth in six days. It's also the Lakers' third consecutive road game.

There's also the possibility of LeBron James not playing. He's questionable with a sore ankle.

I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago.

The ante is raised for the Suns after they got caught looking ahead to this matchup, losing 104-102 to the Spurs this past Monday. Phoenix has been playing better defense lately than its average ratings. The Suns have given up 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games.

The Nuggets are allowing only 103.8 points during their last seven games.

Both Bradley Beal and Jamal Murray are questionable with injuries. Beal is Phoenix's third-leading scorer while Murray ranks No. 2 in scoring for Denver.

The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage.

Chicago State has a lower-tier offense and is 13-18. The Cougars have a number of bad losses, including a 12-point loss to DePaul.

The Cougars, though, were able to take advantage of a disinterested San Diego team to pull off a first-round upset in their CBI opener. I don't see it happening again. This is just the Cougars' second game since Feb. 19.

Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies.

Texas A&M has picked up its offense at the right time averaging 90.2 points in its last five games. The Aggies rank third in the nation in offensive rebounding and are a better free throw shooting team than Houston.

It takes good guards to beat Houston. Texas A&M has that. The Aggies also are healthier than the banged-up Cougars.

The two teams played each other this season. The game was played in Houston and the Cougars won, 70-66, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. Now the game is at a neutral site and the point spread is much higher.

The Aggies have proven themselves against some elite opponents beating Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa State. The Cougars just met Iowa State in the finals of the Big 12 Tournament championship game and lost big, 69-41.

I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante.

Sparked by Dante stepping up the past few weeks as he's gotten fully healthy, the Ducks won the Pac-12 tournament - beating Arizona in the semifinals - and then knocking off South Carolina by 14 points in their opening NCAA Tournament game.

This game holds special meaning for Altman, a native of Nebraska who spent 16 seasons coaching Creighton leading the Bluejays to seven NCAA Tourney appearances.

Akron couldn't handle Creighton's height and shot poorly in losing to the Bluejays in the first round. Creighton, though, is stepping up in class with Oregon.

The Bluejays have to contend not only with Dante, but Oregon's hot-shooting guards. Dante missed the start of the season, but he's averaged 19.9 points on 84.1 percent shooting from the floor during his last seven games.

Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. 

Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much. 

Auburn is used to high-scoring SEC opponents who can play fast. That's certainly not Yale. The Bulldogs are a well-coached Ivy League team that is going to try to frustrate Auburn by playing at their usual slow tempo. They ranked in the top-30 in having the slowest possession time.

Yale earned its way to the NCAA Tournament by nipping Brown, 62-61, in the Ivy League Conference Tournament final. The Bulldogs like to score inside. That's going to be problematic against Auburn, though, because the Tigers have the 16th-best shot blocker in the country in Johni Broome.

The Tigers' strength is offensive rebounding. Yale, however, doesn't foul much and ranks in the top-15 in defensive rebounding.

So this matchup sets up for an Under.

Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation.
 
The Owls reached the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last season before losing to San Diego State by one point on a buzzer beater. Florida Atlantic returns that experience and is in an angry mood after a stunning upset loss to Temple in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. 

Northwestern was fortunate to even be picked for the NCAA Tournament. I have Florida Atlantic ranked way ahead of the Wildcats in my power ratings. Not helping matters for Northwestern is injuries. Senior guard Ty Berry is out. He's the Wildcats' fourth leading scorer and center Matthew Nicholson is dealing with a knee injury.

Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday.

Grant McCasland continued a recent Texas Tech tradition of strong coaching. The Red Raiders were riding a hot streak until running into second-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals.

The Big 12 may be the best conference in the country this season, while it was a down year for the ACC.

The Bulls are averaging 115.7 points in their last four games. They've allowed at least 112 points in six of their last eight games.

The Rockets are playing at a faster pace than earlier in the season and have become more offensive-minded.

Houston is averaging 129.6 points in regulation during its last three games. The Rockets have been good for at least 112 points in all but one of their last nine games.

So I like the chances of this game going Over at this number.

In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them.

Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona.  

South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games. 

These teams have met three times this season. The combined total of those games was 241, 263 and 254. So why is this total so low?

Well, Utah's leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen, is out. So is Jordan Clarkson, the Jazz's third-leading scorer.

But I'll take that tradeoff to get a total this low.

The Jazz rank 27th defensively. They are last in 3-point defense. Oklahoma City is the No. 3 scoring team in the league and is the top-shooting 3-point team.

It's not a good matchup for Utah, which is obvious by this lopsided point spread.

The Thunder should have plenty of energy having been idle since Saturday.

The Jazz have played the Timberwolves in their last two games. Minnesota is the top defensive team in the NBA. But if you discount those two games, the Jazz have averaged 119.3 points in their last six games when they didn't have Markkanen.

Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C.

"Playing in the postseason is a huge deal,'' Appalachian State coach Dustin Kerns was quoted as saying. "This is another stair taken upwards in the evolution of our program. No one on our team has ever played in the NIT, so this will be a great experience for everyone."

Appalachian State has the motivation and is good enough to upset Wake Forest straight-up. The Mountaineers rank 30th defensively and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. Each team averages 78 points a game. The Mountaineers are the stronger defensive team.

The Mountaineers can contain Wake Forest's pick-and-rolls and they have elite rim protector Justin Abson, who was the NCAA's fourth-leading shot-blocker. The Mountaineers defeated James Madison, a team getting a lot of love in the NCAA Tournament, twice this season.

The Mountaineers have won 16 of their last 18 games. Wake Forest is 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games. Appalachian State and Wake Forest last met two years ago and Wake Forest won by one point.

As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, the Heat rank better giving up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. Cleveland gives up the sixth-fewest points.

Miami also is in excellent defensive form surrendering only 98.5 points per game during its last four games.

But this matchup comes down to situation and injuries. Miami is in the better spot on both of those key counts.

The Heat are without Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a back injury. But Jimmy Butler participated in the team shootaround today, which likely means he'll play after missing the last two games due to a foot injury.

Cleveland is in worse shape injury-wise. Out for the Cavaliers are Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Max Strus.

Miami lost, 98-91, on the road to the 76ers two days ago, while the Cavaliers could be in a letdown spot after upsetting the Pacers, 108-103, as a 7-point road 'dog this past Monday.

The Pelicans are a play-on team. The Nets definitely are not.

It's also a bad spot for the Nets. The Nets are returning to Brooklyn following a 1-5 road trip that essentially killed any realistic chance for a play-in playoff spot. The final blow was an overtime loss to the Spurs in San Antonio two days ago.

The Nets are 2-6 in their last eight games with three consecutive losses and non-covers.

New Orleans, on the other hand, is playing its finest ball - a season-best 15 games above .500. The Pelicans have one of the top road marks at 21-13. They are 6-1 in their last seven games with all of the victories during this span being by more than seven points.

The Pelicans buried the Nets, 112-85, when the teams met the first time this season on Jan. 2.

No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line.

Cleveland is better than Indiana. The Cavaliers have lost five fewer games and rank in the top-five defensively. Cleveland gives up an average of 109.6 points per game. Indiana ranks second-to-last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers surrender an average of nearly 12 more points per game than the Cavaliers.

Cleveland has covered five of the last six times it has been an underdog. During their last seven games, the Cavaliers have beaten three teams with better records than Indiana - the Celtics, Timberwolves and Pelicans in New Orleans.

So I find this line out of whack.

It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday.

But now the Badgers go from getting past the best big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey to perhaps the most talented player in the conference, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr.

The Badgers entered the Big Ten Tournament losing eight of their last 11 games. The Badgers beat Maryland and banged-up Northwestern. Their victory against Purdue was a gutty effort. However, I don't see the Badgers pulling off a second straight upset in two days with some of their energy zapped from such a physical and emotional tussle with the Boilermakers.

Illinois also is not a good matchup for Wisconsin. The team's met once this season at Wisconsin on March 2. Illinois won, 91-83. Now the teams are on a neutral court in Minneapolis.

The Illini are explosive and talented, none more than the dynamic Shannon. Illinois is going to get its points. The Illini rank 12th in the country in scoring at 83.9 points a game. The way to beat Illinois is exploit its weak 3-point defense that ranks 259th.

Wisconsin, though, is a below average 3-point shooting team. The Badgers rank 192nd in 3-point accuracy at 33.9 percent. The Illini didn't have nearly the tough time with Nebraska in their semifinal Saturday game as the Badgers did in upsetting Purdue.

Portland has the second-worst record in the Western Conference. But the Trail Blazers are having a strong March by a point spread standard going 6-2-1 ATS.

This spot sets up well for the Trail Blazers and the line value is there with the spread above what I had anticipated.

New Orleans just scored a big, 112-104, home win against the Clippers last night. The Pelicans had to play hard in the fourth quarter to secure the win. They won't be taking the Trail Blazers nearly as seriously. The Pelicans also could be distracted knowing that a four-game road trip looms ahead once this game is finished.

Portland is expected to have Anfernee Simons back in the lineup after he sat out the Trail Blazers' last game against the Knicks two days ago. It's an added bonus if the Trail Blazers get back second-leading scorer, Jerami Grant. He's doubtful.

The teams met earlier this season on Feb. 10 in Portland. It was a defensive game with the Pelicans winning by nine points, 93-84.

I like New Mexico to upset San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game.

The Lobos have looked good in the tournament going 3-0 SU and ATS sparked by guard Jaelen House, who is averaging 21.3 points in the tourney.

New Mexico has a scoring advantage and backcourt edge. San Diego State holds a defensive edge and front-court edge.

The Lobos are not a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game. The key is controlling pace. I don't see the Lobos, based on how they've looked in the tournament, getting dragged down to San Diego State's slow tempo.

This is the finals of the America East Conference Tournament and the deck is stacked in Vermont's favor. The venue is the Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT. That is the Catamounts' home floor where they are 44-2 since the start of 2021-22 season. Vermont has won 32 straight conference games at home.  

UMass Lowell plays up-tempo and averages 80.3 points. Vermont ranks ninth in the country defensively holding opponents to 62.9 points. The Catamounts are disciplined and do not turn the ball over with the 10th-lowest turnover rate in the nation. 

So we have a complete contrast of styles. Which will prevail?

The teams met twice during the regular season. Vermont won both times with the latest being a 74-62 home win two weeks ago. The Catamounts have won nine in a row.

Vermont has the history, home-court and right style to beat UMass by double-digits again.

Tennessee beat every team in the SEC except one on its way to capturing the regular-season title. The one team the Volunteers lost to happened to be Mississippi State.

That should ensure a full, motivated effort from the 24-7 Volunteers against the Bulldogs, who finished the regular season with a losing SEC record.

Mississippi State beat LSU, 70-60, as a 4 1/2-point favorite in the first round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday. I'm not putting much stock in that, though. The Bulldogs often had trouble when stepping up in class like they will here. Mississippi State had lost and failed to cover during its previous four games before beating LSU.

The Volunteers, on the other hand, enter the conference tournament 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. They've scored at least 81 points in six of their last eight games.

Look for rested Tennessee to get its revenge in a big way against the Bulldogs.

I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now.

The Wolf Pack get a scheduling edge, too, with the Mountain West Conference Tournament being in Las Vegas.

Matchup-wise, Nevada has a size advantage in the low post with Nick Davidson and has a trio of excellent defensive guards to hound Colorado State's star point guard Isaiah Stevens.

Colorado State has been out of sync when playing Nevada due to the Wolf Pack slowing things down and playing excellent perimeter defense. The Rams were just 12-of-41 (29 percent) from 3-point range in their two games against Nevada while the Wolf Pack made 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc for 45 percent. This isn't surprising since Nevada is a top-50 3-point shooting team while the Rams ranked second-to-last in the Mountain West in 3-point accuracy.

I want the Clippers going for me as they hit the road following home losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves. No shame in losing to those two elite teams, although the Clippers blew an 18-point lead vs the Timberwolves.

I see the Clippers accepting this challenge with a great deal of urgency making this matchup a priority. The Clippers defeated the Bulls, 112-102, at home this past Saturday before their losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves.

The Clippers have won eight of their last 10 away games. The Bulls are in a difficult situational spot after a thrilling road overtime win against the Pacers last night. Now the Bulls have to return home to play without rest. This also marks Chicago's sixth game in nine days.

Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are each questionable for Los Angeles. However, the Bulls might not have underrated Coby White, who left the Bulls' game in the fourth quarter against the Pacers and didn't return because of a hip injury. White is having a breakout season and probably is the Bulls' third-most important player. Leonard and Harden should be able to go having had an off-day on Wednesday.

Creighton is at its finest when it comes to the best time to peak - in March. The Bluejays have covered 82 percent of their past 17 March games. I like the Bluejays to roll past Providence by double-digits.

The Bluejays enter the Big East Conference Tournament having won seven of their last eight games, including defeating No. 2 ranked UConn by 19 points on Feb. 20.

Providence isn't nearly as good as Creighton and isn't in good form going 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games. Both of the Friars' victories during this span were against Georgetown, which went 2-18 in conference.

The Cavaliers are a top-five defensive team and shouldn't lack motivation taking to the road after consecutive home losses to the Suns and Nets. Cleveland has injuries, but also depth.

New Orleans is in a flat spot playing its first home game since March 1. The Pelicans return home fat and happy having won all three games during their three-game road trip. Those victories were against the Raptors, 76ers and Hawks all of whom were missing a key player.

The Pelicans rank eighth defensively. They allow two more points per game than Cleveland.

New Orleans has a better road record than a home mark. The Pelicans have lost and failed to cover in two of their past three home contests.

Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday.

But now's the time to sell high on the Pacers as they return home to host the Bulls playing without rest following that 2-0 road trip. It's the Pacers' first home game in six days and just their second game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse since Feb. 28.

Oh, yes, the Pacers are 1-8 the past nine times when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've lost to far worse teams than the Bulls during this span when playing without rest.

The Bulls have won eight of their last 11 road games with two of those defeats occurring to the Cavaliers by three points and to the Magic in overtime.

There's a negative perception of the Bulls because Chicago is missing Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Patrick William. But the Bulls still have star power with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with emerging Coby White, who has quietly averaged 19.6 points, 5.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds a game.