If there's a key number in basketball it's 6. So getting anything more than six points with the home underdog Knicks in this crucial Game 4 playoff game is good value.

The Knicks aren't in Boston's class. However, the Knicks are resilient. They stole two games in Boston coming from 20 points down in each game. They have six playoff victories - and trailed in the fourth quarter during each game.

I don't see the Celtics routing the Knicks like they did in Game 3 when they won by 22 points. That was the Celtics' season and manhood being challenged. Boston also shot 50 percent from 3-point range making 20 of 40 shots in the win.

The Celtics certainly were due to shoot better than 25 percent from beyond the arc, which was their combined 3-point percentage during the first two games of the series. But highly unlikely they make half of their 3-pointers again. Probably somewhere in the middle since they ranked 10th in the league during the regular season in 3-point accuracy at 36.8 percent.

The Knicks always have been above average defensively under Tom Thibodeau, who is well-respected in the NBA for his defensive acumen. The Knicks ranked 10th during the regular season defensively.

The Celtics restored some sanity to the NBA playoffs with their road blowout victory against the Knicks on Saturday. Now I'm expecting the same from the Thunder against the Nuggets in the Western Conference.

Denver leads this series, 2-1. But Oklahoma City is the superior team. The Thunder have led 82 percent of the time during this series. Not only are the Thunder a top-notch scoring team with better athletes and a deeper bench than Denver, but they are far better defensively than the Nuggets.

Oklahoma City has held Nikola Jokic to 14-of-41 shooting (34 percent) from the floor and forced him to commit 14 turnovers during the past two games. 

Credit to the Nuggets for managing a series lead despite being more banged-up than Oklahoma City and having an interim coach. But a return to normalcy is set to take place Sunday in Denver. 

The Thunder are an ascending team. They were the best during the regular season - and nothing has changed my mind that they still aren't the best. A Thunder blowout would not surprise me. It happened two games ago when Oklahoma City whipped Denver by a whopping 43 points.

Denver suffered a 34-point blowout loss to the Clippers in their opening series round, which went a grueling seven games. The Nuggets suffered two blowout losses - by 26 and 45 points - to the Timberwolves in the playoffs last season. The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets in that series last year. The Thunder are better than that Timberwolves team.

What are the chances of the Celtics blowing two 20-point leads at home?

What are the chances of the Celtics missing 75 of 100 3-point shots in those games?

What are the chances of Jayson Tatum missing 30 of 42 shots in those games?

I can't begin to calculate the odds of all that happening. I just know no NBA team had lost consecutive home playoff games after being up by 20 points in each game. Until now.

The Knicks are riding a lot of house money as they come home to what's going to be a raucous and crazy Madison Square Garden. But, know this, defending world champion Boston is and remains the superior team.

The Celtics certainly aren't going to lack incentive and focus. They shot 36.8 percent from 3-point range during the season, 10th-best in the league. Tatum made 45.2 percent of his shots during the season, not the 29 percent he's shooting during this series.

Boston had a better road record than a home mark going 33-8. The Celtics have a deeper bench, are healthy and have more star power.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith for Boston to show a strong positive regression in this Game 3.

Stung by the Nuggets stealing Game 1, the Thunder buried Denver, 149-106, in Game 2 of their series this past Wednesday. 
I'm going against the zig-zag theory here and backing the Thunder to soundly defeat Denver again. 

It's not a fluke that Oklahoma City was 18 games better than Denver during the regular season. The Thunder are deeper and superior defensively. Oklahoma City also is faster. The Thunder averaged 120.5 points a game. Denver, which relies on its offense, averaged two more points per game than Oklahoma City, but gave up 11 points more per game than the Thunder. 

Denver is heavily reliant on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Thunder has the antidote for Murray in defensive whiz Lu Dort. Oklahoma City figured out the right strategy to bottle up Jokic in its 43-point Game 2 victory - swarming him while playing pressure defense the entire time without a letup. The Thunder have the youth and depth to do this. Oh, yes, the Thunder have their own legitimate league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Thunder have covered 22 of the last 30 times they've been favored. That's 73 percent. The Thunder are a level higher than Denver and they are proven point spread winners. A change of venue isn't going to change that except to lower the point spread making the bar easier for the Thunder to cover another game.

Certainly Golden State deserves a lot of credit for its upset of the Timberwolves in Game 1 of this series two days ago. But the Timberwolves sure came out rusty after a five-day layoff following their first-round series win against the Lakers. 

Now the Warriors are looking at a highly-motivated Timberwolves squad that doesn't want to be trailing 2-0 heading to Golden State if they were to lose this game. The Warriors also are temporarily looking at life without Stephen Curry. He's out with a hamstring injury. 

Minnesota shot 17 percent from 3-point range against the Warriors on Tuesday hitting on just 5-of-29 from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage during the regular season at 37.7 percent.

Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler showed Sunday that you can never fully count the Warriors out. But the Warriors aren't the better team against the Timberwolves and they are at a severe situational disadvantage.

Minnesota has arguably emerged as a top-five team during the past 5 1/2 months. Anthony Edwards gives the Timberwolves their own superstar.

Golden State had to dig deep - physically and mentally - to upset the Rockets on the road in Sunday's Game 7. The Warriors also got an unlikely 33 points from Buddy Hield, who made a staggering 9 of 11 3-point shots and missed only three of 15 field goal attempts.

People were ripping the Lakers for losing their first-round series to the Timberwolves. That outcome wasn't surprising, though. Minnesota is the superior team.

Now the Timberwolves are in a great spot having been idle since eliminating LA last Wednesday.

Situation matters when it comes to the NBA. And this one sets up great for Oklahoma City.

The Thunder last played nine days ago after sweeping the Grizzlies. Superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn't even play up to his lofty standards during the series yet Oklahoma City still won the series, 4-0.

Denver has gotten exactly one day of rest after getting past the Clippers in a grueling seven-game series that ended Saturday night.

The Thunder have the best record in the NBA at 72-14 counting the playoffs. They had the best point spread record during the regular season, too, at 55-23-4 for a phenomenal 71 percent. Oklahoma City is home and has a huge situational edge.

That spells a double-digit victory in my book.

Playoff savvy and one-time greatness can only get you so far. The Warriors have reached the end of the line. I don't see them beating the Rockets in Houston in this Game 7 playoff matchup.

Golden State went all in to eliminate the Rockets at home in Game 6 two days ago. The Warriors couldn't do it, done in by the Rockets' superior rebounding and their own exhaustion.

Houston is the quicker, taller, hungrier team and now they have confidence. The Rockets have won their last two home games against the Warriors by 15 points each.

The Warriors are running on fumes - ground down both physically and mentally. Stephen Curry is 37. Jimmy Butler is close to turning 36. Draymond Green is 35 and trying to battle Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, who are both 6-foot-11, with his 6-foot-6 frame.

Green is one of the dirtiest players in NBA history. He won't be getting away with anything in Houston. Curry and Butler are at less than 100 percent capacity.

Any momentum the Warriors had from earlier in the series has been lost.

The Warriors would very much like to close the Rockets out at home today leading 3-2 in this best-of-seven series rather than go to a seventh and deciding game, which would be in Houston on Sunday. 

But what the Warriors would like and can do are two different things. 

Yes, Golden State has far more playoff experience than Houston. The Warriors also have two proven superstars, Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. The Rockets can't match the reliability of those two.

Houston, though, has edges the Warriors lack. The Rockets have more overall talent, are younger and the superior rebounding and defensive team. Houston has had a fourth quarter lead in each of its playoff losses to Golden State.

Golden State is ahead in the series because of its veteran savvy. The Rockets, however, have chipped away at that as this series has gone deeper. The Rockets have their confidence up after building a 29-point third quarter lead this past Wednesday in coasting to a 131-116 Game 5 victory. 
The Rockets picked up the pace and applied relentless defensive pressure. Those tactics worked. 

"It feels like we're getting more consistent recognition of what they're doing throughout the series as it goes on," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said following his team's Game 5 victory. "Trying to wear them down and taking away certain actions, and we did that. Try to make them make plays and not run their plays. If they have to beat us one-one, we feel that's to our advantage."

Houston has its confidence and blueprint. The Rockets aren't intimidated anymore being in the playoffs with the Warriors. They are a rising power. Maybe it's not their time quite yet, but I'll take this many points to find that out.

Forget the Nuggets' 131-115 Game 5 home win against the Clippers from two nights ago. Those 246 combined points were an outlier. The combined total of the other four games in the series during regulation is 200.7 points.

The Clippers are the fourth-ranked defensive team in the NBA and top-rated defensive rebounding team. They are going to come in with a maximum defensive effort after being embarrassed in that last game.

Denver has held the Clippers to an average of 100.6 points in regulation during three of the five games in the series.

The Under has cashed 60 percent the past 100 times during Game 6 and 7 NBA playoff games.

So expect plenty of hard-nosed playoff defense - not offense - in this one.

The Rockets' young talent is obvious. But playoff inexperience, Golden State's veteran savvy and missed free throws have resulted in the Rockets being down 3-1 in their first-round playoff series against Golden State.

Now the Warriors look to close out the series with a road victory today. I don't see them doing it. Not at Houston.

The Rockets' one win in this series came at home in blowout fashion, 109-94, in Game 2. Houston is 30-12 at home. 

The Warriors have proven superstars with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. But Golden State also has far more age. This is their third game in five days and Houston is desperate. The oddsmaker made the Rockets the favorite and I fully agree. 

This is what Curry had to say about this game, "You understand closeout games are extremely difficult because of desperation from the other side. Try to do it on the road is even more challenging." 
The Rockets have the talent to match Golden State with Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason. Houston has had fourth-quarter leads in its losses. The Rockets are the superior rebounding team. Their confidence and poise will be much better at home.

The Cavaliers have already advanced. The Knicks can do that, too, if they beat the underdog Pistons at home tonight. The Celtics would meet the Knicks in Round 2 of the Eastern Conference playoffs. So Boston can't waste any more time with Orlando in its first-round series.

The Magic managed to sneak a home win in Game 3 after soundly losing the first two games in Boston. The Magic gave it their best shot at home in Game 4 before surrendering 16 of the final 23 points in a 107-98 loss this past Sunday. That was a deflating loss for the Magic.

Orlando is a two-man team of Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner. The Magic have tried to overcome their weak depth and lack of other scoring options by playing extremely physical. That's not going to work back in Boston.

The Celtics' stars are better than Orlando's stars and Boston's bench is far superior. Boston is 30-13 at TD Garden Center. The Celtics don't want to screw around anymore with the Magic. I look for the Celtics to be focused and to play with great intensity. That should ensure an easy double-digit victory.

With or without Jimmy Butler, I like the Rockets to cover - if not beat the Warriors straight-up - in tonight's Game 4 matchup of their Western Conference playoff series. 

The Warriors pulled out a gutty home win without Butler this past Saturday. Golden State came back from a 13-point deficit. 

I don't believe the Warriors can do that again if Butler remains out due to a pelvic injury suffered in Game 2 this past Wednesday. But even if Butler plays, the Warriors may get caught subconsciously relaxing. 

The Rockets are a better defensive team than Golden State. They gave up the fifth-fewest points and ranked No. 2 in defensive rebounding. The Rockets were slow in rotating and didn't play with the defensive intensity during Saturday's loss that they did when they defeated the Warriors in Game 2. I see the Rockets taking their defense up a notch in this game.

Detroit's J.B. Bickerstaff is the NBA Coach of the Year in my book. I trust Bickerstaff to make the right adjustments in this Game 4 of the Pistons-Knicks playoff series.

After splitting the first two games in New York, the Pistons lost Game 3 at home, 118-116, this past Thursday. Two big keys for the Knicks in their victory was Karl-Anthony Towns taking advantage of Detroit missing center Isaiah Stewart and OG Anunoby's defense on Cade Cunningham. Towns scored 31 points and Anunoby held Cunningham to 4-of-14 shooting from the floor.

Still, the Knicks only won by a basket. The Pistons shouldn't be so nervous starting the game. That was their first home playoff game since 2019. Detroit outscored New York by 11 points in the second half, but couldn't quite overcome a 66-53 halftime deficit.

Stewart may be able to play Sunday. But even if he doesn't, I'm confident in Bickerstaff to make adjustments to slow down Towns and to get Cunningham, an emerging superstar, better opportunities to score, or pass to an open teammate.

With or without Jimmy Butler, I like the Warriors to prevail at home against the youthful Rockets. Houston is taking to the road after going 1-1 on its homecourt during the first two games of this Western Conference series. 

Golden State has the savvy and playoff experience to make the proper adjustments after the Rockets increased their defensive intensity to win Game 2, 109-94, this past Wednesday.

Butler suffered a bruised back in that game. He played less than eight minutes before he suffered the injury. I believe Butler will play here, although he's listed as questionable. If you don't count that Wednesday game, the Warriors are 24-7 since Butler joined them. 

Jonathan Kuminga got the rust off replacing Butler. Kuminga played 26 minutes after Butler left, making four-of-12 shots from the floor. Kuminga was the Warriors' fourth-leading scorer during the regular season averaging 15.3 points, but had sat out the previous two games.

After losing by 17 and nine points at Boston during the first two games of this series, I see Orlando bouncing back to at least get the cover - if not win outright - at home.

I'm not expecting a doubtful Jayson Tatum to play. Nor would I be surprised if Jaylen Brown sat out, too, or at least had reduced minutes because of a sore knee. There's also a chance the Celtics could be minus Jrue Holiday, who is dealing with a hamstring strain.

The Magic play the Celtics with much more confidence at home having defeated them in both of their regular-season home games.

Orlando came back from an 0-2 playoff deficit against the Cavaliers last year to win all three of its playoff home games.

Let me get this right. The first game of this series is decided in overtime with the Nuggets winning. The Clippers hold on in Game 2 withstanding two Denver missed 3-pointers in the final seconds to win by three points. 

Denver was favored in both of those games. But now that the scene shifts to LA the Clippers are this big of a favorite? Huh? Not buying it. These teams are extremely even. So give me the Nuggets in this point spread range.

Kawhi Leonard had one of his games for the ages this past Monday dropping 39 points on 15-of-19 shooting from the floor. Leonard is that good. But he's not the best player on the court. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is. Jokic is averaging 27.5 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds in the series. He's not the only Denver player having a big series. Jamal Murray is averaging 22 points, 6.5 assists and 6.0 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is averaging 19.5 points and seven rebounds. 

The Nuggets dominated the boards against the Clippers in Game 2, out-rebounding them by 18. The Nuggets, though, committed nine more turnovers and shot only 63.6 percent from the free throw line when their season average is 77 percent.

I had the Warriors to beat the Rockets in Game 1 - and felt lucky to win even though the final score was Golden State, 95-85. 

The Rockets grabbed 16 more offensive rebounds than the Warriors and had numerous missed open 3-point shots. 

The Rockets' youth showed in that first playoff game. Still, the Rockets could have cut the Warriors' lead to two points with less than five minutes left if Stephen Curry didn't hit a long 3-point desperation heave that took the pressure off by putting the Warriors ahead by seven points. 

Golden State shot 47.4 percent from the floor. The Rockets got off 11 more shots than the Warriors, but made only 39.1 percent of their field goal attempts. 

Expect an all-out effort by the Rockets knowing they can't go down 0-2 in the series at home. Their young, but highly-talented players, should be more comfortable and less rusty in Game 2. Houston also should make a much higher percentage of its offensive rebounds and open shots resulting from kick-outs. 

I see that happening.

The Bucks picked a bad time to get cold and play flat this past Saturday in a 117-98 Game 1 playoff loss to the Pacers.

Milwaukee was 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS this month before that game. But aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were terrible against Indiana.

Not only will the Bucks be highly motivated with their pride wounded, but there's a strong possibility they get back their second-best player, Damian Lillard. He's been out since March 18. Lillard is likely to be on a minutes count if he does play, but he should provide a needed spark after getting into a chippy exchange of words with some of the Pacers from Milwaukee's bench.

Antetokounmpo said this after the 19-point Game 1 defeat: "It wasn't us. I think we're gonna be better. In the second half we were better. They only scored 50 points in the second half. We were way better in the second half. Hopefully we can carry over to the next game and do what we do, guys feel more comfortable out there."

The Bucks led the NBA in 3-point shooting at 38.7 percent. Yet they shot only 24.3 percent from beyond the arc in Game 1 making just 9-of-37 shots. The Pacers rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage.

The Clippers committed a whopping 20 turnovers, seven by Kawhi Leonard, against the Nuggets in Game 1 on Saturday. That led to a 20-point edge by the Nuggets in points off turnovers.

Yet it took overtime for the Nuggets to defeat the Clippers, 112-110. 

Denver is not some great defensive team. The Nuggets ranked 25th in scoring defense. The Clippers, by contrast, ranked fourth defensively giving up an average of nine fewer points per game than the Nuggets. 

LA entered Saturday's Game 1 as the hottest team going 18-3 with an eight-game winning streak. The Clippers picked a bad time to go flat. Expect them to play much better, especially the prideful Leonard, in this Game 2 matchup. 

The Clippers have responded with wins and covers the past four times following a loss defeating the Magic by nine points on the road, the Knicks by 13 on the road, the Heat by 15 on the road and the Pistons by eight at home during this time span. 

The Nuggets do not have a good recent history when playing at home in Game 2 of a playoff series going 0-4 ATS the past four times in that instance the previous two seasons.

The Rockets were four games better than the Warriors during the regular season. Houston is the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Golden State is seventh-seeded.

Pay no attention to that, though.

It's misleading and doesn't mean anything now.

The Rockets have been idle for a week. They are rusty and lack Golden State's playoff experience having last made the postseason in 2020, the Covid year when the playoffs were held in the bubble in Orlando.

The Warriors played at a 61-win pace during their last 31 games going 23-8 transformed by a resurgent Jimmy Butler. They defeated the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in a play-in game to reach this point.

Houston coasted into the playoffs, losing its last three games by an average of 21 points. The Rockets are young lacking the proven stars the Warriors have with Stephen Curry, Butler and Draymond Green.

It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to reach full intensity having been idle since last Sunday and not caring during the last week of the regular season. The Warriors won't have that problem. They'll be ready.

This could be the most evenly matched first round series of all of them. I believe the Lakers are overrated here because of who they are and their star power of Luka Doncic and LeBron James.

Minnesota, however, is the taller and deeper team. The Timberwolves also went 17-4 in their last 21 games. The Lakers were 18-10 during their last 28 games with Doncic in the lineup. LA lost to the Hornets, Jazz, Nets and Bulls twice during that stretch.

Doncic's numbers haven't matched the great statistics he was putting up with the Mavericks. He and James look better on paper with just a plus two rating when both are on the court together.

Anthony Edwards actually could be the best offensive player on the court. The Lakers don't have any strong defensive wings to defend against Edwards either. If they load up on Edwards that frees up Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert.

This is too many points for the Warriors to be giving up considering Memphis has a size advantage, JaMorant is playing his best basketball of the season and there is not a huge talent disparity between the two teams. 

The Grizzlies have displayed defensive improvement under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo ranking sixth in defensive efficiency during their last six games. Discounting a loss to the Timberwolves from this past Thursday, the Grizzlies have given up an average of 105 points during their last five games. 

Morant is averaging 30.2 points and shooting 41.3 percent from 3-point range this month. 

Memphis also has the size to hurt Golden State in the frontcourt with an improved Zach Edey joining elite defender Jaren Jackson Jr. The 7-foot-4 Edey is averaging 15.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks this month. 

The Grizzlies rank No. 2 in the NBA in drawing fouls. The Warriors rank 19th in that category.

It seemed to take forever. But we've reached the postseason in the NBA. That means the defensive concentration and intensity goes way up.

Stephen Curry and Ja Morant are the poster childs for this play-in game. Yet the game also features two of the premier defensive players of the league in Draymond Green and Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies also have been giving more minutes this month to 7-foot-4 rookie center Zach Edey. That's a plus for the Under.

The Grizzlies have surrendered an average of 105 points in their last five games if you don't include their game against the Timberwolves.

Golden State has a top-eight defense. The Warriors have held their last six opponents to an average of 102.6 points.

Not many NBA games today have much meaning with playoff seeding determined. This matchup is an exception. That should ensure a hard-fought, defensive-minded battle. Both the Clippers and Warriors are in excellent defensive form ranking in the top-three in defensive efficiency during the past eight games.

The previous three games in this series this season have averaged only 203.6 points.

Stephen Curry has a right thumb sprain and is questionable for the game.

This is the Trail Blazers' final road game and first matchup since finding out they were eliminated from the postseason. Portland showed much improvement, but I question its motivation for this now meaningless game.

Utah is dreadful. But the Jazz should have motivation to halt a nine-game losing streak. This is their best chance to stop their losing skid since they host the Thunder and play at Minnesota for their final two games.

Portland concludes its season with home games against the Warriors and Lakers. Those are matchups the Trail Blazers are likely to care more about.

The Jazz are 1-2 against Portland this season. Both of Utah's losses to Portland came by two points. The Jazz have outscored Portland by 38 points in their three games.

A far superior defense. Rest advantage. Playing at home. Much better current form. 

All of those reasons are why I like Orlando to cover this number against Atlanta.

Let's start with defense. The Magic give up the fewest points per game at 105.6. The Hawks, by contrast, rank 27th defensively allowing an average of 119.8 points per game.

Orlando has been idle since Thursday. The Magic are 6-2 in their past eight games. Their defense has been even better than its season number. The Magic have surrendered an average of only 99 points during their last six games. 

The Hawks are 2-5 in their past seven games. Atlanta has permitted more than 119 points in each of its last seven games. During their past seven games, the Hawks have allowed an average of 124.1 points.

As much as I like and respect Florida, Houston's tenacity and elite defense has me going with the Cougars. 

Houston held the Blue Devils to 40 percent shooting from the floor and only one field goal during the final 10:30 of its dramatic Final Four, 70-67, comeback victory this past Saturday.  Duke averaged 82.7 points and 48.8 percent shooting during the season. Both top-18 marks. 

 Duke averaged 91.7 points during its previous four games before meeting Houston. To be honest, I thought Duke was going to win the NCAA Tournament. 

The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Their offense can look a little disjointed at times, but they ranked No. 2 in the country in 3-point percentage. The Cougars also are a strong rebounding team. They have the Big 12 defensive player of the year, Joseph Tugler. He's 6-foot-8 with a wingspan of a 7-foot-6 player. Tugler has 77 blocks, including four against Duke.

Kelvin Sampson is a Hall of Fame coach, a tremendous defensive tactician. 

Nothing against Florida, but I'm going with Houston since I give the Cougars checkmarks in defense, coaching and 3-point shooting. I can't see them not winning the title after their unbelievable semifinal victory against Duke.

NBA Bonus Play

Pistons minus 7 1/2 hosting Kings

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Behold the largest Eastern Conference point spread of the season. Sure the Celtics probably could name their score here at home against the Wizards, but I don't see them being very motivated. Boston also doesn't have a good track record in this point spread range, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times (28 percent) as double-digit favorites.  

The Celtics took their frustrations out on Phoenix after their nine-game win streak was halted by the Heat this past Wednesday. Boston buried the Suns, 123-103, in its following game this past Friday.

Boston knows it's locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference being eight games of the third-place Knicks, but trailing first-place Cleveland by five games with five regular season games left. The Celitcs travel to Madison Square Garden to meet the Knicks on Tuesday in their next game.

Only twice in their last 28 games, have the Wizards lost by more than 20 points. Washington has many young players. They'll want to show their best against the defending world champions.

Checkmark to Houston on defense. Duke, however, is the more complete team, has a size advantage and superstar Cooper Flagg. Those are reasons enough to justify laying these points with the Blue Devils.

Duke has a size advantage in the backcourt - pivotal because Houston relies on its perimeter shooting - and has 7-footer Khaman Maluach inside to dominate both ends in the paint.

The Blue Devils' size was a key in holding Alabama to 65 points in an 85-65 win during their last game. Alabama was the No. 1 scoring team in the nation averaging 91.1 points. Houston averages 17 points fewer per game than Alabama.

I don't see the Cougars being able to keep up with Duke in the scoring column. Not only do the Blue Devils have the magnificent Flagg, but also Tyrese Proctor and a strong bench. Unlike Houston, Duke is equally proficient scoring both inside and outside.

Improved defense is one of the reasons why the Pistons are going to make the playoffs for the first-time since 2019. So is the emergence of Cade Cunningham into a superstar. Cunningham ranks eighth in the NBA in scoring with a 25.7 point average.

Cunningham, though, has missed the past five games with a calf injury. He's questionable here. Even if he plays, you wonder about him having a rust factor. Detroit has scored 103 and 104 points in its past two games.

Toronto probably will be without perhaps its top all-around offensive player as Scottie Barnes is doubtful with a right hand injury. The injury really hampered Barnes' shooting and performance in a 112-103 home loss to the Trail Blazers last night.

The Raptors have been below-the-radar defensively. If you discount them giving up 127 points to the Bulls two games ago, the Raptors have held their five opponents to an average of 101.6 points. Toronto ranks fourth in the NBA in 3-point defense.

The Timberwolves' dramatic, 140-139, last-second two overtime road victory against the Nuggets this past Tuesday night was one of the best games of the NBA season.

Denver followed up that game with an upset home loss to the Spurs last night, although Nikola Jokic sat out.

While I don't expect the Nets to beat Minnesota straight-up, I do believe this is an excellent ambush spot for Brooklyn to throw a scare into the Timberwolves, who have to be feeling great about themselves pulling out a win against the Nuggets. Minnesota defeated Denver when Russell Westbrook missed a layup near the end of the game and Nickeil Alexander-Walker was fouled with one-tenth of a second left. Alexander-Walker's two free throws accounted for Minnesota's final victory margin.

That win put the Timberwolves into a tie for the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot in the West. You can't fault the Timberwolves if they suffer a letdown here facing the Nets, who are 26 games below .500.

Still, this is a second straight road game and a time change for the Timberwolves. The Nets are pesky. They actually have been quite good point spread-wise covering nine of their last 13 games. The Nets also are the more rested team having been idle since Monday.

When is enough, enough? The answer is right here in this game. The Timberwolves have defeated the Nuggets five straight times, including all three this season.

I don't see this as a matchup thing. The Nuggets should be finally aroused since the Timberwolves have been taking this series more seriously. Not now, though. Denver also is trying to hold off the Lakers for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Denver should be healthy with Jamal Murray expected to play. The Nuggets are well rested. They last played this past Friday at home, blowing out the Jazz.

Minnesota, however, is in action for the third time in five days. The Timberwolves are off a near-brawl against the Pistons this past Sunday. This is only the Timberwolves' second road game since March 14. They were blown out by the Pacers in their previous road game eight days ago.

Don't go against North Texas when it comes to the NIT. The Mean Green won the 2023 NIT championship and they've reached the semifinals here against Cal-Irvine.

Cal-Irvine is the superior offensive team. But the Anteaters are going to have problems with North Texas. It's not just that the Mean Green surrender the third-fewest points in the nation and rank in the top-10 in defensive rebounding.

It's that North Texas also plays at the slowest pace. That's going to bother Cal-Irvine. The Anteaters can't match the Mean Green on the boards and their ball-handlers are more sloppy.

This is one of those rare, if any, times I'm going against Oklahoma City being fully aware the Thunder are riding a nine-game win streak and have the best point spread mark in the NBA. 

Actually, it's not so much I'm going against the Thunder, but rather taking value on the Bulls, who are below-the-surface. 

Chicago is 9-3 in its last dozen games, 10-2 ATS. If it weren't for a one-point loss to the Mavericks, the Bulls would be on a five-game win streak. 

This is a good test for the Bulls to find out just how competitive they are. I'll back them, given how well they have been playing, at what I see is an inflated point spread.

Ready or not, we have another college basketball tournament going. It's the inaugural College Basketball Crown being held in Las Vegas. I'm getting involved in this early round game today taking Utah to beat Butler.

I have Utah as the higher power rated team. The Utes hold a defensive and rebounding edge. They also play in the stronger Big 12 Conference.

Butler opened 7-1, but has gone 7-18 during its last 25 games.

Have to go defense in this one. Both Michigan State and Auburn rank in the top-10 in defensive efficiency. The Under has cashed in 10 of Michigan State's last dozen games. The Tigers have gone Under in four of their five postseason games.

Michigan forced 15 Auburn turnovers against the Tigers this past Friday. Michigan State has much better defensive guards than the Wolverines. The Spartans have the front-court depth, too, to keep Auburn star big man Johni Broome from dominating. Broome is the only Auburn player who averages more than 13 points. The Tigers don't have any outstanding scorers if Broome is neutralized. Michigan State's Tom Izzo is an expert at making defensive adjustments.

The Spartans will have to earn their points, too. The Tigers rank in the top-five in blocked shot percentage and are seventh in 3-point defense.

Reportedly the Grizzlies surprisingly fired coach Taylor Jenkins because he had lost the locker room. Regardless, I expect the Grizzlies to be highly-motivated at home in their first game since naming Tuomas Iisalo as their interim coach. 

The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode and draw the Lakers playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and in their fourth straight road contest. 

Memphis 25-11 (69 percent) at home this season. The Lakers are four games below .500 when playing on the road. 

Ja Morant has missed the past six games due to a hamstring injury. He's questionable here. I like the Grizzlies to beat the Lakers regardless if Morant plays. If he does suit up, it's just a bonus.

Michigan State has reached the Sweet 16, but the Spartans haven't played their best. They are due for a big game. I see that coming here against a Mississippi team they match up well to.

Mississippi has pulled off upset victories against Iowa State and North Carolina to reach this point. The Rebels are extremely well-coached like the Spartans are. Mississippi is not a strong rebounding team, though, ranking 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC. Michigan State, by contrast, was the No. 2 rebounding team in the Big Ten and eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding.

The Rebels hit 49 percent of their 3-point shots against the Tar Heels and Cyclones going an amazing 19-for-39. That is uncharacteristic of Mississippi. The Rebels are not nearly that good of a 3-point shooting team. They ranked 173rd in 3-point accuracy during the regular season hitting 34.1 percent. Michigan State has the toughest 3-point defense in the country ranking No. 1.

The combination of Michigan State's 3-point defense and rebounding should be enough to derail the Rebels and allow the Spartans to cover this point spread margin. Michigan State is due for a better performance while the Rebels are overdue to cool off from beyond the arc, especially playing this opponent.

The Heat have been a disappointment this season, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Eric Spoelstra is a top defensive coach. The Heat have slowed their pace since dealing disgruntled Jimmy Butler and are playing their best defense of the season.

The Heat just held the Warriors to 86 points two days ago. Miami is giving up only 97.6 points during its past three games. Star defensive player Bam Adebayo helped guard Butler during that win against the Warriors. Butler managed just 11 points in the game. This doesn't bode well for the Hawks' main man, Trae Young.

Atlanta has its own defensive ace in Dyson Daniels, who leads the NBA in steals. The Hawks are more about offense than defense, but they don't figure to push tempo playing for the fourth time in six days.

Alabama-Birmingham is an underdog worth backing. Not only do the Blazers play in the stronger American Athletic Conference compared to Cal-Irvine, which is in the weak Big West Conference, but Alabama-Birmingham has proved itself on the road.

The Blazers have scored road upset victories against Santa Clara as a 7-point 'dog and against St. Joe's getting six points. Cal Irvine wasn't impressive in beating but failing to cover against Jacksonville State at home, 66-61, in its last NIT game. 

UAB also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. He averages 17.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 blocked shots. He owns the school record for double-doubles. 

The Blazers play fast and are explosive. They are 16th in the nation in scoring at 82.6 points per game. Being on the road hasn't changed this as the Blazers rank 15th in the country in points per possession when playing away. 

Cal Irvine averages nearly seven points fewer per game than UAB, but features the superior defense. Some of that, though, comes from playing in the smallish Big West. UAB has been playing better defense late in winning and covering four of their five postseason games. 

UAB holds a rebounding edge. The Blazers rank in the top-20 in offensive rebounding. Going against UAB is going to prove a real contrast for Cal Irvine. 

The Blazers have enough going to pull the outright upset.

The Lakers are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. Indiana has won five in a row and is at home. Yet it's the Lakers who opened the favorite.

The oddsmaker has it right here.

The Lakers opened their current road trip with a 118-106 loss to the Magic two days ago. The positive for the Lakers was that both Luka Doncic and LeBron James played and looked good. The Lakers need to win this game. I trust Doncic and James to help them achieve that win as they try to cling to a top four-seed in the Western Conference.

The Pacers' win streak is bogus except for their last game, which was a 119-103 home win against Minnesota this past Monday. The Pacers began their victory streak with an overtime road win against the Timberwolves. That was followed by only a four-point home win against the decimated Mavericks and a pair of home wins and non-covers against the Nets with one occurring in overtime. The Nets are 3-15 in their last 18 games.

Going in, I liked Cleveland State to win the CBI Tournament and so far nothing that has gone on has changed my mind. The Vikings rolled past Queens University in their tournament opener yesterday breezing to an 88-73 win as a 4 1/2-point favorite.

I don't see today's opponent, Florida Gulf Coast, being any better. The Eagles barely got past Army, 68-65, as a 10 1/2-point favorite in their tournament opener yesterday. That was the fourth time the Eagles failed to cover in their last five games.

Cleveland State is the better scoring team and much superior to Florida Gulf Coast defensively.

It has been a brutal March for the Heat. They are 2-11 this month. Their only victories were against the horrendous Wizards and Hornets.

Golden State has won 16 of 20 games since acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Heat. The Warriors should be highly motivated to win big here coming off an upset loss to the Hawks three days ago and knowing how important this game is for Butler playing against his former team.

The Warriors have won by an average of 14.2 points the past four times following a loss.

It's an added bonus if Stephen Curry plays. He's questionable due to a bruised pelvic.

Washington is 15-55 after losing by 19 points to the Knicks on the road this past Saturday. 

Yet Washington opened as the favorite because Toronto is 24-47 and looked terrible in losing, 123-89, to the Spurs on Sunday. The Raptors were playing at home for the first time since returning from a four-game West Coast trip. 

"...We have to be much better, and I expect us to be much better tomorrow (Monday)," Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic said following his team's no-show against the Spurs.

The Raptors are better than Washington and should be motivated. Only the Thunder and Cavaliers have a better point spread record than the Raptors, who are 42-28-1 for 60 percent.

This is a question of trust. The Mountain West Conference has had a dismal point spread record in the NCAA Tournament, while the Big Ten Conference is proving how strong it really is going 10-2 SU and ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State with Tom Izzo is one of those Big Ten teams I trust the most. I believe the Spartans match up well to New Mexico. The Spartans have tournament experience having reached at least the second round in 17 of the last 20 NCAA Tournament. 

The Spartans have the superior depth and defense, ranking No. 2 in the country in 3-point defense, and hold a backcourt edge with the necessary defenders to bother Donovan Dent, who the Aggies heavily rely upon.

Michigan State got its kinks out rolling past Bryant, 87-62, two days ago. I'm looking for a better performance from the Spartans. 

New Mexico defeated a disappointing and unimpressive Marquette in the first round. The Lobos don't have the signature victories Michigan State has. I don't believe they can stay within single digits of the Spartans.

Of the many great teams in the SEC this season, Mississippi is one of the least flashy. The Rebels don't get talked about much. Certainly not like Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. 

But this doesn't mean the Rebels aren't dangerous. They have the right mix and coaching to pull the upset against Iowa State. 

Mississippi is a semi-rarity these days for an NCAA Tournament team - a veteran starting lineup consisting of four seniors and a junior. They have leadership, poise and an elite coach in Chris Beard. 

I also believe Iowa State's coach, T.J. Otzelberger, is elite. The Cyclones, though, are the ones laying mid-range points and missing a key injured player in guard Keshon Gibert. He is Iowa State's second-leading scorer at 13.4 points a game and is the team leader in assists. 

The Cyclones were able to easily triumph against Lipscomb in their first-round NCAA Tournament game. Mississippi has better athletes than Lipscomb and can exploit Gilbert's absence with a more swarming defensive style. 

Mississippi's strength is forcing turnovers while ranking in the top-15 in committing the fewest turnovers. That's a winning combination against this opponent.

Only two teams in the nation surrendered fewer points per game than North Texas. The Mean Green haven't given up more than 66 points in a game during their last 15 games.

North Texas, however, ranks 312th in scoring at 68.5 points a game. Arkansas State can handle the Mean Green defensively. The Red Wolves rank among the top 17 teams in the country in both defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

However, facing North Texas' strong defense is going to be cultural shock for the Red Wolves, who are used to a much different tempo playing in the Sun Belt Conference.

Congrats to the Spurs for winning consecutive home games against the Knicks this past Wednesday and against the depleted 76ers two days ago. I don't see the Spurs having their full intensity as they take to the road for only the second time in two weeks to face Toronto. 

The Raptors have lost three more games than San Antonio, but have a far better point spread record. Toronto, in fact, is tied with the Cavaliers behind Oklahoma City for the second-best ATS mark at 42-27-1. 

The Spurs have failed to cover in eight of their last nine away contests. This marks San Antonio's sixth game in 10 days. Remember, too, the Spurs are minus their two best players - Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox.

Toronto concluded a 1-3, four-game West Coast trip with a narrow, 117-114, loss to the hot Warriors. That was this past Thursday. So the Raptors have been idle the past two full days. They are well-coached, healthier than San Antonio and have good, young chemistry. They should be up for this very winnable home game. The Raptors also have covered five of their last six home games. 

I'm going to lay short juice and play the Raptors on the money line asking them to merely beat the Spurs at home.

This Wisconsin team is like no other in school history. The Badgers used to be all about defense. Greg Gard has broken from that tradition. The Badgers play fast and are not shy about throwing up 3-pointers. Wisconsin ranks 35th in scoring, averaging more than 80 points a game. The Badgers also are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the country. 

BYU is a willing partner to keep a fast, high-scoring pace. The Cougars rank 26th in scoring at 81.4 points a game. They rate 19th in field goal percentage and 39th in free throw accuracy. 

Both teams are below average in 3-point defense.

Playing at Utah isn't easy even when there is motivation. As bad as the 16-54 Jazz are, they are tough at home covering 10 of their last 15 games as hosts.

The teams just met 11 days ago and Boston only won by six points at home. The Jazz were playing without rest, too, having played the night before.  

Boston has an extremely deep roster. The Celtics are still strong even when resting star players, which could be the case here with the team's upcoming schedule of playing the Trail Blazers in Portland on Sunday and Kings in Sacramento on Monday.

So the backdoor could swing open for the Jazz if Boston does build an early huge advantage. Realistically, the Celtics are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. That might be why Boston has only won by this large of a margin once in its last 11 games.

It's been an up-and-down season for Connecticut. But if the two-time defending champion Huskies are going to get eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, it's going to come from Florida not Oklahoma. 

The Huskies have won and covered their past 12 NCAA Tournament games. Look for that impressive streak to continue against the Sooners, who may be without center Sam Godwin. He's missed the last three games because of a knee injury.

Even with Godwin, the Sooners can't rebound with Connecticut. The Huskies hold a defensive and depth edge, too. 

Connecticut ranks 60th defensively and is the No. 2 defensive rebounding team. Oklahoma rates 269th defensively and is 324th in offensive rebounding. 

The Huskies are healthy, too, unlike the Sooners. 

Connecticut is the more well-rounded team with big edges on defense and on the boards. I'm not going against the Huskies against this opponent.

The Lakers are very tough at home and on a three-game winning streak. But this is a tough spot for LA. The oddsmaker knows this, making Milwaukee a road favorite.

The Bucks won't lack motivation after a flat, 104-93, road loss to the Stephen Curry-less Warriors two days ago. The Bucks had won 10 of 15 before that defeat. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a rare poor performance.

The Lakers are not only fat and happy after beating the Nuggets, 120-108, last night at home, but carry a huge fatigue rating as this marks LA's sixth game in eight days.

LA is short-handed, too, with LeBron James out and Rui Hachimura questionable with a knee injury.

The teams just met a week ago and the Bucks sailed past the Lakers, 126-106, at home when the Lakers didn't have James.

The Bulls are a pesky team that usually can be counted on for a good effort. They are flying behind the point spread radar covering 11 of their last 14 games, including going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Chicago is a dangerous opponent for the Kings in this spot. Sacramento is fat and happy having opened its homestand with victories against the Grizzlies on Monday and Cavaliers last night in an impressive, 123-119, win.

The Kings took down the mighty Cavaliers despite being without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Jake LaRavia. Sabonis remains out, while the other two are questionable.

Given the situation and the Bulls being acclimated to West Coast time after a 127-121 road loss to the Suns last night, I trust Chicago to keep this one tight.

Yes, Drake plays at a snail's pace. But don't confuse slow tempo with strong defensive field goal percentage. Despite playing in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference, the Bulldogs only rank 225th in defensive field goal percentage.

Missouri plays fast and scores quickly. The Tigers rank ninth in the nation in points averaging 84.5 and fifth-best in offensive efficiency. They also are 21st in shooting percentage.

Drake is highly-accurate, too, ranking 20th in the nation in shooting percentage.

Yale is one of those teams you don't want to meet in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament - especially if you're Texas A&M.

The Aggies are heavily reliant upon second-chance opportunities to get their points because they are such a bad perimeter team. Texas A&M ranks 324th in field goal percentage and 331st in 3-point percentage.

Yale is the wrong opponent for Texas A&M. The well-schooled Bulldogs rate 36th in defensive rebounding and are in the top-20 when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities.

Texas A&M is not in good form either going 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games.

Led by senior guard John Poulakidas, Yale ranks 11th in field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point accuracy.

Don't forget what Yale did last year, upsetting Auburn in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament as a 14-point underdog.

Cleveland is in danger of losing three in a row for just the second time all season. I don't see that happening here, though.

Following a 16-game win streak, the Cavaliers were upset at home by the Magic and then embarrassed by the Clippers, 132-119, on the road last night. LA made 54.8 percent of its field goal attempts against Cleveland.

Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson called out his team following that poor defensive performance citing lack of discipline.

So I'm banking on a strong, motivated effort from the Cavaliers.

The Kings have won 22 fewer games than Cleveland. The Cavaliers are an elite team. Sacramento is a borderline playoff team that had dropped four in a row before defeating the Grizzlies, 132-122, at home two days ago. That victory was costly as the Kings lost their best rebounder and defender, Domantas Sabonis, to an ankle injury.

Cleveland has the No. 2 scoring offense in the NBA. The Cavaliers rank first in 3-point accuracy. The Kings rank last in 3-point defense and now won't have Sabonis.

Texas is an Over machine. The Longhorns have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 13 games.

Xavier will do its part in getting this total Over, too. The Musketeers rank 15th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. They also are in the top-10 in free throw accuracy.

The Musketeers have scored at least 76 points in seven of their past eight games. Texas has permitted 76 or more points in 11 of its last dozen games.

Motivation is a huge factor when handicapping first-round NIT games. Samford has it for this matchup. George Mason doesn't.

George Mason went 26-8, including 15-3 in the Atlantic-10 Conference. Yet the Patriots couldn't get a spot in the NCAA Tournament because they lost, 68-63, to VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament finals this past Sunday.

This was a highly-disappointing loss for the Patriots. I don't see them bouncing back on such a short turnaround. The Patriots aren't built to cover big margins either with their extreme slowdown style. They are 0-4 ATS the past four times when laying more than four points.

Samford, on the other hand, is excited to compete having never participated in the NIT before. The Bulldogs want to prove themselves after getting upset by Furman in the quarterfinals of the Southern Conference Tournament.

The Bulldogs aren't nearly as good defensively as George Mason. But they have other factors going for them. Samford ranks 12th in the nation in scoring, averaging 13 more points per game than George Mason. The Bulldogs are an excellent 3-point shooting team and are patient, ranking 29th in the country in assists per game. That's important when going against George Mason's vaunted defense and slow tempo.

So sure their season had ended, some of the Shockers left Wichita State for spring break following the team's quarterfinals loss in the American Athletic Conference Tournament this past Friday.

It was a surprise then for Wichita State when it found out it had made the 32-team NIT field. Now the Shockers have to travel to Stillwater, Okla., to face Oklahoma State. 

This is Wichita State's first postseason appearance in four years. I don't believe the Shockers are ready for the challenge having already thought their season had ended.

Making it worse for the Shockers is Oklahoma State plays at an extremely fast tempo. The Cowboys aren't going to lack motivation having missed out on the postseason last season and being knocked out in the first round of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. 

The Big 12 is superior to the AAC. Wichita State didn't encounter too many up-tempo teams in the ACC. Now the Shockers are on the road against a well-coached aggressive foe that loves to full-court press and plays at a top-15 pace. 

So I don't see the Shockers staying within this number.

Neither of these teams, nor their respective conferences, are impressive. Saint Francis actually has a losing record. But that's not why I favor Alabama State to cover the number against the Red Flash.

Alabama State ranks fifth in the country in plus/minus turnover percentage. St. Francis turns the ball over on nearly 20 percent of its possessions, which rates 321st in turnover percentage.

Not only do the Hornets protect the ball much better than the Red Flash, but they are playing their finest ball. Alabama State is 10-1 in its last 11 games, including winning six in a row.

These two teams are all about offense. I'm not going to go against that in this American Athletic Conference Tournament championship game.

Alabama-Birmingham ranks 16th in the nation in scoring, but is 305th defensively. The Blazers have reached at least 80 points in seven of their last nine games. They have hit better than 47 percent of their field goals during the past three games.

Memphis doesn't lack for scoring either. The Tigers are the 44th-highest scoring team in the country and rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. However, they are 211th defensively.

These are two of the most banged-up teams in the NBA. The 76ers have been without their three best players - Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. The Mavericks have been hit so hard by injuries they have trouble meeting the NBA requirement for players.

All of this has left both team's offenses in shambles. During the last eight games, both Philadelphia and Dallas rank among the bottom-six in offensive efficiency.

This is an early Sunday start time, too, which is a plus for the Under.

Love the way Maryland is playing defense. But I'm not so in love with the depth of the Terrapins. However, the Terrapins only had two players log 35 minutes in yesterday's blowout victory against Illinois.

Maryland held the high-scoring Illini to 65 points. The Terrapins have now held their last five opponents to an average of 62.6 points a game.

The teams just met 10 days ago at Michigan and the Terrapins defeated the Wolverines, 71-65. I'm riding Maryland's excellent defensive form.

I'm going to ride Cal Poly here in this Big West Conference Tournament game. The Mustangs own surprising momentum having won five in a row. This includes an impressive, 96-83, upset of third-seeded UC Riverside last night.

Cal Irvine is by far the superior defensive team. However, the Anteaters may be a little rusty having not played in nearly a week.

Cal Poly has the offense to keep this within single digits. The Mustangs rank 25th in the nation in scoring at 81.7 points a game. Their defense has shown improvement down the stretch. Prior to playing UC Riverside, the Mustangs had held their last four opponents to an average of 69.5 points a game.

Not only are Iona and Quinnipiac more defensively inclined, but the venue here for this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament semifinal can not be overlooked. Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is a huge gym, which makes it tough for teams not accustomed to this setting. MAAC teams don't play in huge gyms. 

So it's not a fluke that the Under has covered 69 percent of the time during the past 52 games played there by MAAC teams. 

Expect another Under showing in this matchup.

Iona ranks 290th in scoring, is 324th in field goal percentage and 312th in free throw accuracy. Quinnipiac gives up 71.4 points a game, is a strong defensive rebounding team and ranks 69th in defensive field goal percentage. 

Quinnipiac is 352nd in 3-point shooting and 299th in field goal percentage. Iona has allowed only 60 points during regulation in its past five games if you discount its game against Sacred Heart.

Purdue plays at a very slow pace. USC certainly isn't going to look to push tempo either after getting past Rutgers in double overtime last night.

Each team has similar defensive strengths, which are defending against 3-points and rebounding. Purdue ranks 37th in 3-point defense. USC rates 20th in 3-point road defense. 

Because of the anticipated slow pace and perceived lack of 3-point accuracy, I see this total as being too high.

Asking Oregon to simply win this game is a straight-forward handicap. The Ducks are the better all-around team. They proved that against Indiana nine days ago when they defeated the Hooisers, 73-64, at home. 

Oregon is hot - seven straight victories. The Ducks are a much better free throw shooting team than Indiana. I give check marks, too, to the Ducks both offensively and defensively. They also are well-coached. 

So it's an easy call for me to back Oregon.

There are few sure things. UC Santa Barbara beating Bakersfield is one of them. The Gauchos have won the last 11 meetings.

This includes Santa Barbara's 12-point home win and six-point road win against the Roadrunners this season.

It's not a fluke that Santa Barbara is 19-12, 11-9 in the Big West Conference while the Roadrunners are 14-18 and 8-12 in the conference.

The Gauchos are a much better shooting team than Bakersfield and much superior defensively.

I have Western Kentucky as a far stronger favorite than the point spread indicates in this Conference USA Tournament opener. No, the 17-14 Hilltoppers aren't some great team. But 9-22 Florida International is that bad.

The Panthers just may be the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. They are inferior to Western Kentucky both offensively and defensively.

Florida International is far from being in good form either, covering only one of its last eight games. The Panthers lost 15 of its 18 conference games.

Western Kentucky  just defeated FIU, 76-67, at home this past Thursday. The Hilltoppers were 8-10 in league. They rank in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage.

Don McHenry, an all-around star, gives the Hilltoppers the best player on the court.

The Pelicans are one of those non-playoff teams that is below-the-radar and dangerous at home. New Orleans is in an excellent spot to ambush the fat-and-happy Clippers here.

The Clippers take to the road for the first time in a week after going 3-0 during their homestand with satisfying victories against the Pistons, Knicks and Kings in overtime this past Sunday.

But now the Clippers hit the road where they have failed to cover the past 10 times! LA's only victories during its last 10 away games were against the Bulls, Jazz in overtime and Hornets. The combined record of those three teams is 58-136. 

New Orleans is 7-3-1 ATS in its past 11 home games. The Pelicans nearly upset the Grizzlies at home two days ago as double-digit 'dogs. They lost,107-104, after two potential game-tying 3-pointers missed during their final possession. The Pelicans kept it that close despite resting both Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, their first and third-leading scorers.

No need to overcomplicate things here. Portland State is the superior team. I expect the Vikings to win and cover this Big Sky Conference Tournament game.

Portland State is 19-12, 11-7 in conference compared to Idaho's 13-18 overall record and 8-10 league mark.

The Vikings are on a three-game winning streak. They give up six fewer points per game than Idaho and can take advantage of the Vandals' porous perimeter defense.

Idaho ranks 334th in defensive field goal percentage. Portland State ranks 46th in field goal percentage. 

The Vandals are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.

The Pacers have matched up well to the Bulls this season as evidenced by a 3-0 record with an average victory margin of 13.3 points. I like the Pacers to get a season-sweep on Chicago.

Indiana is in a foul mood after a pair of close road losses to the Hawks, while the Bulls return to Chicago fat and pleased after going 2-0 on its Florida road trip with victories against the Heat and Magic. The Bulls came from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to defeat the Heat this past Saturday. 

The Pacers have Bennedict Mathurin, their third-leading scorer, back after a four game absence. It's a nice bonus if Tyrese Haliburton can return from a hip flexor after missing the two Hawks losses. 

The Bulls have their own injury woes with Patrick Williams and Lonzo Ball out.

When properly motivated, the Celtics can beat any team. But unmotivated, banged-up and with a look-ahead nationally televised home marquee matchup against Oklahoma City looming, the Celtics are a fade in this spot. 

It's simply too many points for Boston to be laying.

Utah is terrible and unpopular with the public. That combination gives the Jazz some extra value. The Jazz have covered eight of their last 14 games and should get big man, Walker Kessler, back after he was rested in Sunday's road loss to the 76ers. 

Boston may choose to sit out Jayson Tatum and Al Horford, both of whom are listed as questionable. Kristaps Porzingis isn't expected to play either for Boston. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times when laying double-digits. They host the Thunder on Wednesday. That's the game they are keying on. 

Jazz coach Will Hardy doesn't want to get embarrassed in this matchup. He was a well-respected assistant coach for the Celtics before taking the Jazz's head coaching job.

I don't expect Zion Williamson to see action in this game since he played in the Pelicans', 146-117, embarrassing road loss to the Rockets last night. Williamson hasn't played in back-to-back games since returning from a hamstring injury in early January. 

Still, I like the Pelicans getting this many points. 

New Orleans plays much better at home. The Pelicans are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games in New Orleans. They're much improved on the boards, which was a real weakness.

Mainly, though, my handicap is a fade on Memphis.

The Grizzlies aren't playing well enough to lay this many points on the road. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Memphis gave up 94 points through three quarters to the short-handed Mavericks before winning, 122-111, this past Friday. That has been the Grizzlies' lone cover during their past 10 games. 

Memphis continues to be without its best big man, injured Jaren Jackson Jr. He won't play today because of an ankle injury. The Pelicans have upgraded their rebounding enough to take advantage.

Golden State is drawing attention now, making its move winning eight of its past nine games.

The Pistons don't get much publicity. Yet they quietly are 10-2 in their last dozen games. Detroit's only losses during this span were to the Nuggets and to the Clippers this past Wednesday, 123-115. James Harden shot 20 free throws to Cade Cunningham's six free throws in that game. That didn't seem fair to Detroit coach JB Bickerstaff.

Bickerstaff has done a tremendous job this season. Given extra prep time, I'm confident he'll have the Pistons in a position to ambush the Warriors, who last played at home on Feb. 25.

Golden State just finished its fifth straight road game, escaping the Nets, 121-119, this past Thursday. This will be the Warriors' fourth game in six days. So not only do the Warriors carry a high fatigue rating, but also their concentration level may be down having been away from home for so long.

Note, too, the Warriors' schedule. They have met only one above .500 team during their last seven games, playing the Hornets twice during this stretch. Bickerstaff has the Pistons at 35-28. That happens to be the same record the Warriors have.

This is too many points for UCLA to lay in this cross-town long-standing rivalry. The game means far more to USC, which has started to play better. An upset win by the Trojans here secures their place in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

USC rolled past Washington, 92-61, three days ago. That halted a five-game Trojans' losing skid and should restore the team's confidence.

The Trojans are a top-100 scoring team. They've produced 82 or more points in three of their last four games. They are dangerous. Just ask Big Ten leader Michigan State. The Spartans fell to USC, 70-64, early last month.

The Trojans trailed the Bruins by just one point with 96 seconds left in the first matchup this season before losing by six points.

This may look like an easy game for the Kings on paper, but it's not given the spot and Sacramento's injury situation. 

The Kings just concluded a four-game, eight-day road trip with a tough loss to the Nuggets two days ago. Sacramento had won the first three games of its road swing and led the Nuggets by nine points going into the fourth quarter, but ran out of gas and lost by six. 

The Sacramento players barely have time to get acclimated to being back home before they go back on the highway for a bigger game against the Clippers on Sunday. So there could be a concentration and focus problem for the Kings, especially given the low bar of their opponent. 

The Kings, though, would be challenged to cover a mid-range number without playing well even if they were healthy. But they aren't. Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk are both out. Those injuries more than offset the Spurs being without Victor Wembanyama. Sabonis is Sacramento's top rebounder, defender and shot-blocker. Monk averages 17.6 points a game and is second on the team in assists. 

San Antonio has an added day of rest after a 14-point home victory against the Nets this past Tuesday. This is a bigger than normal game for the Spurs because De'Aaron Fox is playing against his former team. That should provide extra motivation for the Spurs.

Longwood knocked Winthrop out of the Big South Tournament last year. Look for the Eagles to get their revenge here.

The teams met twice this season. Winthrop won both meetings. The Eagles' average victory margin in the two games was by 22 1/2 points.

Longwood has no momentum going into this game having lost seven of its last nine games while also going 2-7 ATS. The Lancers rank near the bottom in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Winthrop is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation. So expect another Lancers blowout.

This is a tournament game in the Summit League. So expect a lot of points. Just expect more points from North Dakota State.

North Dakota State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting, 36th in scoring 40th in field goal percentage. South Dakota can match North Dakota State's offensive firepower, but plays much worse defense. South Dakota gives up nine more points per game than North Dakota State. The Coyotes are 361st in scoring defense, 355th in defensive rebounding and 342nd in points per possession allowed.

The Bison beat South Dakota in both regular-season meetings, 82-76, at home on Feb. 26 and buried the Coyotes on the road, 103-77, on Jan. 18.

North Dakota State enters the tournament winning four of its last five games, while South Dakota has a losing record in its past five games.

It's easy to overlook Iowa. The Hawkeyes never were able to recover after losing their star big man, Owen Freeman, for the season with a finger injury. Iowa is 3-10 in its last 13 games.

But Michigan State won't be looking past the Hawkeyes despite Iowa's dismal record. It's not just because the Spartans clinch an outright Big Ten Conference title with a win. No, it's more than that.

Tom Izzo has a history of getting the Spartans to peak right before tournament time. That's the case again this season with Michigan State winning and covering its last five games. Izzo is putting a great deal of emphasis on this matchup remembering a home loss to Iowa last season and what happened to his team the last time they visited Iowa. The Spartans blew a 13-point lead with 1:34 left, losing in overtime.

That marked only the fourth time in Division I history a team lost when leading by at least 11 points with 55 seconds to play in regulation.  

This is what Michigan State center Carson Cooper told the Detroit newspapers about this game: "I think for us right now, the attention to detail is probably at an all-time high. Especially Iowa, you can't look past them even though they're not playing great basketball right now, because of what they've been able to do with us the last couple of years. It really makes it personal for us."

Iowa is a top-30 scoring and 3-point shooting team. However, the Hawkeyes rank 340th defensively, surrendering nearly 80 points a game. They are near the bottom of the Big Ten standings with a 6-12 league mark. Michigan State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point defense.

Much is made of Joel Embiid being out for the rest of the season. Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers' leading scorer, is questionable, too. 

But if you think the 76ers' injury situation is bad, look at Boston's. The Celtics defeated a hot Trail Blazers team, 128-118, last night despite missing starters Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis. Then Sam Hauser, who started in Holiday's place, suffered an ankle injury putting his status in jeopardy for tonight. The Celtics won't have Holiday and Porzingis again. Also out are Jalen Brown and Al Horford. Tatum is questionable. 

The Celtics still beat the Trail Blazers by double-digits because Payton Pritchard and Derrick White combined to score 84 points while making 19 3-pointers. I certainly don't see that occurring anytime soon. 

The 76ers should have Paul George available. It's a plus if Maxey is able to play. The Celtics have no reason to rush any of their injured players back into the lineup for tonight's game having already clinched a postseason berth. 

Boston has a bigger game on tap hosting the revamped Lakers in a nationally televised matchup on Saturday. The Celtics are fat and happy now and also in a look-ahead spot.

The 76ers should be the more motivated team in this long-standing rivalry. Philadelphia did upset the Warriors three games ago not having Embiid.  
The Celtics have lost and failed to cover the past times they've played without rest. Boston also is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times when laying double-digits.

I disagree with the early marketplace activity that has made Stanford road chalk against Notre Dame. 

This is a sell-high on Stanford, buy-low spot on Notre Dame. The Cardinal is off a 3-0 homestand. However, Stanford has lost six of its past seven road games. The Cardinal is averaging just 65 points a game during their past six away contests. This also is their first road matchup since Feb. 15. So there's going to be an adjustment period.

Stanford is a solid shooting team. Notre Dame, though, ranks 42nd in defensive rebounding and can limit Stanford's scoring opportunities.  
The Irish return home following a 74-71 road loss to Wake Forest and an 83-68 away defeat to Clemson. Note, however, Stanford lost at Wake Forest, 80-67, and lost at Clemson, 85-71. 

Notre Dame should be up for this home matchup. I see the Irish getting the job done.

I'm surprised this line opened where it did because I consider New Mexico to be far superior to Nevada. The Lobos are 23-6 and have won nine of their last 11 games. If the Lobos win this game, they earn at least a share of their first Mountain West Conference regular-season title since 2012-13. So New Mexico certainly is going to have incentive.

Nevada is 16-13 and ranks seventh in the Mountain West with an 8-10 league mark. The Wolf Pack have lost three of their last four games. They are off a terrible loss to UNLV  this past Friday. 

The Wolf Pack haven't beaten a top-five Mountain West team all season. 

The Lobos outscore the Wolf Pack by 10 points a game. They also are much better on the boards. New Mexico has the best guard on the floor in Donovan Dent and the best big man in Nelly Junior Joseph. 

New Mexico has won the last three in this series. Nevada isn't expected to have two of its rotation players, Tre Coleman and Daniel Foster.

The Pacers are in a good position to beat the road Rockets by a decisive margin here. Indiana is off an easy 15-point home victory against the Bulls this past Sunday. Houston had to play last night and lost, 137-128, to the Thunder at Oklahoma City.

Now the Rockets have to play in this back-to-back spot while perhaps missing six rotation players, including point guard Fred VanVleet and All-Star center Alperen Sengun. Those were two of six Houston players who didn't play against the Thunder because of injuries. This also marks Houston's third game in four days.

The Pacers have the offense to take advantage. They are averaging more than 119 points a game since January while ranking No. 4 in field goal percentage. Indiana has excellent scoring depth with eight players averaging at least nine points a game.

Indiana has added motivation after the Rockets buried them, 130-113, in Houston earlier this season.

North Texas gives up the second-fewest points per game in the country. But the Mean Green already has clinched a double bye for the AAC Tournament and doesn't score enough to lay this many points against a Wichita State that has been playing well.

The Shockers are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They average six more points per game than North Texas.

The Mean Green defeated Wichita State, 58-54, when the teams met on Jan. 29. The Shockers only lost by four despite Xavier Bell, their leading scorer at 15.2 points a game, missing 13 of 17 shots from the field.

I think there's inflation on this high of a total based on Oklahoma City's last game. That was a wild, 146-132, road win against the Spurs last night. 

The Thunder's defense has slipped noticeably since All-Star break ranking 22nd. Overall, the Thunder still rank either first or second in a number of major defensive categories, including scoring defense, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. 

Houston has a below average offense. The Rockets rank 18th in scoring, 26th in field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point shooting. The Rockets won't have their assists leader and third-leading scorer as Fred VanVleet is ruled out after tweaking his ankle injury in the Rockets', 113-103, loss to the Kings two days ago. 

The Thunder aren't going to look to push pace after last night's wild game. They won't lack defensive motivation either after surrendering a season-high in points to the Spurs last night and they don't have to face VanVleet. 

The Rockets are a top-five defensive club. They are in sharp defensive form holding their past three opponents - Kings, Spurs and Bucks - to an average of 105.3 points. Houston catches a break, too, in that Oklahoma City's third-leading scorer, Chet Holmgren, is likely to miss this game due to an ankle sprain that caused him to sit out last night's game. 

The Rockets have multiple injuries besides VanVleet with five other rotation players listed as questionable. Rockets coach Ime Udoka expressed his frustration with his team's lack of defense against the Kings. So from Houston I'm expecting a conservative game plan with a fierce defensive intensity.

Even if Anthony Edwards can't go because of calf soreness, I like the Timberwolves in this spot after they suffered an upset loss to the lowly Jazz. Minnesota is expecting to get back Julius Randle for this game.

The other part of my handicap is to fade Phoenix. The Suns went 3-10 last month. All three of those victories were achieved against lottery-bound teams. The Suns got revenge against the Pelicans in their last game. The Suns, however, are an NBA-worst 5-21-1 ATS following a victory.

This is an excellent gauge to determine just how much the Trail Blazers have improved. They are riding a four-game win streak and have drawn to within four games of qualifying for a play-in tournament spot.

The Cavaliers are in letdown mode after coming from 18 points down to defeat the Celtics in Boston two days ago. It was one of the Cavaliers' most satisfying victories of the season.

So the situation, Portland's improvement and getting this many points puts me on the underdog.

Maybe the Celtics thought it was going to be too easy when they opened a 25-3 lead at home against the Cavaliers this past Friday night. Cleveland came back to beat Boston, 123-116. 

That doesn't sit well with the Celtics, who have now lost two in a row. They haven't lost three straight games all season. I trust the Celtics to keep that streak intact with a well-played game against the Nuggets, who are at the tail end of a four-game road trip. 

Boston didn't have Kristpas Porzingis and Jrue Holiday against the Cavaliers. Both are questionable. Aaron Gordon didn't play in Denver's last game, which was an impressive, 134-119, win against the Pistons this past Friday that halted Detroit's eight-game win streak. Gordon is questionable with an ankle injury. 

I like Boston to win even if Porzingis and Holiday remain out in this nationally televised matchup. 

Denver ranks 23rd defensively. The Nuggets are giving up an average of 118.8 points during their last seven games, which is nearly three points it's below-average season average. The Celtics rank No. 3 defensively. The Celtics give up nearly eight fewer points per game than the Nuggets.

Now that the calendar has hit the magic month of March, powerful second-ranked Duke is thinking about down the road with the ACC Tournament and March Madness. This is the Blue Devils' second-to-last home game. I don't see their focus and motivation being fully there.

Duke has to be satisfied to follow up a loss to Clemson with five straight blowout victories. I understand there's a huge talent gap between the two teams. But Florida State is playing hard for Leonard Hamilton, in his final season. The 15-12 Seminoles are playing better in their past six games. An upset win against Duke would be the highlight of their season and a great going away present for Hamilton.

During this span, Florida State beat Notre Dame and upset Wake Forest on the road, covered at Louisville and played better against North Carolina than the final score of 96-85 showed. Malique Ewin, the Seminoles' leading rebounder and shot blocker and second top scorer, had to leave that game with foot soreness. He should play here having had five days of rest. He is the second-best offensive rebounder in the ACC.

Senior Jamir Watkins, the fifth-leading scorer in the ACC, gives the Seminoles that needed star guard to hang against the Blue Devils.

It doesn't get worse in the NBA than a matchup of Washington versus Charlotte. These two team's combined record is 24-92. Often when it's bad on bad, I like to go with the underdog. It certainly makes sense in this matchup to back the underdog Wizards.

This is Charlotte's first home game since Feb. 7. The Hornets concluded a disastrous 1-8 road trip with a 103-96 loss to the Mavericks this past Thursday. Before that defeat, the Hornets had lost their previous three games by a staggering average of 43.6 points! 

Not only will the Hornets be in the distracting position of getting adjusted to being back home, but they have less prep time than Washington.
The Wizards have been idle since this past Wednesday. 

The team's have met three times this season. Washington is 3-0 in those games. The Wizards defeated the Hornets by 10 points at Charlotte Feb. 3. They also beat the Hornets twice at home by an average of six points.

Cincinnati is in good enough current form and its 24th-ranked defense is strong enough to hang within this number against Houston. The Bearcats have either won or pushed on the point spread in their last seven games. They are giving up just 64 points per game in their last three games.

Houston has failed to reach 70 points in three of its past four games, including the last two.